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The first post of PB’s 6th White House race – politicalbetting.com

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  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,344
    Good morning, everyone.

    Dr. Foxy, Wallace turning up for Truss is less than ideal for Sunak...

    His odds have lengthened now to 8 (12 lay) on Betfair.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,479
    Foxy said:

    Wallace backs Truss. Sunak looking friendless.

    Ben Wallace will speak to LBC's Nick Ferrari (host of last night's hustings) at 7.45am
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i-HhsD8MuAY
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746
    IshmaelZ said:

    Sunday, Wembley, Final

    England 2.54
    Germany 3.09
    Draw 3.3

    Lay England. That's all sentiment.
    Risky, England have scored 20, conceded 1 and have home advantage.
    I'm not betting but I think we'll win.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,668

    Good morning, everyone.

    Dr. Foxy, Wallace turning up for Truss is less than ideal for Sunak...

    His odds have lengthened now to 8 (12 lay) on Betfair.

    He’s timed this to make sure Sunak loses rather than another candidate wins. Ballots out next week are they not? So tedious this lasts another 6 weeks. Get on with it!
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 476
    dodrade said:

    Which city will host Eurovision Song Contest 2023?

    Glasgow 2.2
    Manchester 5.6
    London 9
    Birmingham 13
    Liverpool 18
    Bradford 21
    Cardiff 21
    Aberdeen 26
    Belfast 26
    Leeds 26
    Sheffield 29
    Dundee 34
    Newcastle 34
    Brighton 41
    Edinburgh 41
    Bristol 51

    Why is Glasgow so high?
    I believe Edinburgh is twinned with Kiev, so I’d go with that.
    I think its because the Netflix Eurovision film with Will Ferrell was filmed at the Hydro Arena, although it was set in Edinburgh,
    Oooh, I like the idea of hosting it in Edinburgh (not just for selfish reasons, either). Twinned with Kyiv, good bit of money spent in Scotland and the UKGov looks nice... Don't know that there's anywhere in Edinburgh that could host it though.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 10,213
    R&W Red Wall poll (25-26 July)

    - “Do you feel like the Government has been making a clear effort to ‘level up’ the area in which you live?”

    Only 24% of 2019 Con voters responded Yes.

    The Voting Intention of 2019 Con voters:

    Con 70%
    Lab 22%
    LD 5%
    Grn 1%
    oth 2%

    The Voting Intention of 2019 Did Not Vote:

    Lab 71%
    LD 12%
    Grn 9%
    Ref 5%
    Con 0
    oth 3%

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-red-wall-voting-intention-25-26-july-2022//

    The Tories will be praying for record low turnout.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 44,323
    Joe Biden, no longer really acceptable even under the circumstances:https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=joe+biden+sufficient+in+the+circumstances&&view=detail&mid=E38681665652AB52FF07E38681665652AB52FF07&&FORM=VDRVSR

    America really needs to do better and move on at least 1 generation, arguably 2.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,054

    Nigelb said:

    Interesting thread on the technical details of HIMARS.
    https://twitter.com/kenshirriff/status/1552723519087198208

    Pretty easy for (eg) China or South Korea or several European countries to build an equivalent if they wanted to.
    Not easy at all for Russia.

    That's fascinating thanks. Note that the processors mentioned are *really* old: it mentions a 90nm PPC processor; current Russian fabs can go down to 65nm (*) - which is perfectly fine for many applications.

    The Russians could *easily* produce this sort of system. The problem they would have is paying for it: these things are not cheap and take a long time to develop. The missiles are also really expensive; Russia may prefer less-exact but cheaper rockets they can build in massive amounts.

    Incidentally, an acquaintance was responsible for a team building a 'cheap' GPS module for satellites (GPS can be used in low earth orbit, but there are complexities). To reduce cost, they used a GPS reciever chip off mobile phones that weighed a few grams. By the time several had been installed for redundancy and error checking, an independent power supply added, a radiation-hardened case, and control/monitoring circuitry, the module weighted a kilogram!

    (*) I do wonder if they'll face problems keeping those fabs running under sanctions...
    What the Russians can probably do, is put together a couple of prototypes of something that looks similar, for the Red Square parade, as has been their MO since the Cold War ended.

    The Russians appear to have no problem making big guns and lots of ammo for them, but seem to really struggle to get anything advanced actually into production - hence why we see so much legacy equipment in theatre in Ukraine. While they have the theoretical capability to make advanced military electronics, actually doing so seems to be beyond them. The Su-27 M upgrade took nearly two decades to fit to 10 aircraft, and at least one of them has been destroyed already.

    It’s taken a little longer than expected, but there are now reports of many factories being forced to close because of the sanctions, as stocks of raw materials and spares for factory equipment dry up. The story of the Polish tractors from a few months ago, illustrates the problem well.

    Russia is more than self-sufficient in food, so people aren’t going to be starving, but lots of unemployment will eventually lead to unrest.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,656
    Unpopular said:

    dodrade said:

    Which city will host Eurovision Song Contest 2023?

    Glasgow 2.2
    Manchester 5.6
    London 9
    Birmingham 13
    Liverpool 18
    Bradford 21
    Cardiff 21
    Aberdeen 26
    Belfast 26
    Leeds 26
    Sheffield 29
    Dundee 34
    Newcastle 34
    Brighton 41
    Edinburgh 41
    Bristol 51

    Why is Glasgow so high?
    I believe Edinburgh is twinned with Kiev, so I’d go with that.
    I think its because the Netflix Eurovision film with Will Ferrell was filmed at the Hydro Arena, although it was set in Edinburgh,
    Oooh, I like the idea of hosting it in Edinburgh (not just for selfish reasons, either). Twinned with Kyiv, good bit of money spent in Scotland and the UKGov looks nice... Don't know that there's anywhere in Edinburgh that could host it though.
    Holyrood....
  • MattWMattW Posts: 14,717

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I reckon Truss is going to win a small majority. Bet accordingly

    Thanks, I’ve just lumped on Starmer as PM after next election
    Truss is plausible, and everybody hates Woke Shit

    That's my thinking

    I reckon the Right could win every election in the West for the next 20 years, if the leaders on the Right aren't insane - thanks to the Woke insanity of the Western Left, and the threat from Fascist Russia, etc

    Only a non-Woke Left can prosper. That is not Starmer; he is Woke but tries to hide it
    Woke issues will take a backseat over the impending cost of living crisis caused by rising energy bills this coming winter. Especially if it’s a cold one.

    Most people don’t care about these work issues. It’s only a small minority on either side of the debate who do.
    One cannot help but suspect the CCHQ campaign team will have clipped last night's question about schools secretly replacing girls toilets with unisex ones. You can't have the Prime Minister making that claim but you can have her answer it, and the question is enough to motivate whichever Facebook users the algorithms send it to.
    I think debates around Trans etc may be more central - the report on Tavistock having put a far more public bomb under some of the trans-activist assertions.

    At the least there will be some careful thought around just *how* services will be broadened.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,793
    You almost have to feel sorry for Rishi. Campaigning on sound finance was always going to be a long shot with this Tory party, but the way that the right wing blob that runs the party slowly dismantled him was impressive.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 14,717
    Nigelb said:

    Just a reminder that this is supposed to be a judge, not a politician.

    In his Rome speech on religious liberty, Justice Alito mocked "foreign leaders" who condemned his opinion overturning Roe v. Wade, including Boris Johnson, Macron, Trudeau, and ... Prince Harry.

    Of Boris, Alito quipped: "He paid the price."

    https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1552743092150800384

    I'm always amused by US demands for other people to stay out of *their* internal affairs.

    Unless it was Clark County, which was hilarious.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,536
    Pulpstar said:

    Thus is an amazing bet, I have around 300 at 2-1.
    24% understates by some way.
    Laying GOP maj in the senate is the bet for the midterms I think.

    What's amazing?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 24,543
    Unpopular said:

    Oooh, I like the idea of hosting it in Edinburgh (not just for selfish reasons, either). Twinned with Kyiv, good bit of money spent in Scotland and the UKGov looks nice... Don't know that there's anywhere in Edinburgh that could host it though.

    It was held in the Usher Hall in 1972...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,536
    RIP Sir Socks
  • MattWMattW Posts: 14,717
    Nigelb said:

    Early Rhodium analysis of Manchin/Schumer climate bill is out: IRA can cut US net greenhouse gas emissions down to 31% to 44% below 2005 levels by 2030 compared to 24% to 35% under current policy, @rhodium_group finds.
    https://twitter.com/ella_nilsen/status/1552806565249417216

    I wonder why they measure from 2005 not 1990 like everybody else? :smile:


  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 44,323
    Scott_xP said:

    Unpopular said:

    Oooh, I like the idea of hosting it in Edinburgh (not just for selfish reasons, either). Twinned with Kyiv, good bit of money spent in Scotland and the UKGov looks nice... Don't know that there's anywhere in Edinburgh that could host it though.

    It was held in the Usher Hall in 1972...
    But that only takes about 2.5k. Is it really big enough anymore? Maybe the Castle if it was set up in tattoo mode?
  • Completely disagreed with the thread header, Biden's approval ratings are atrocious - even worse than Trump's were*. The age factor is there too.

    For him to be next US President 3 factors must be true: He must decide to run, he must get the nomination, and he must win.

    1: Decide to run - Given the age and approval ratings this looks low to me. 40%
    2: Get the nomination - Candidates have run against incumbents (and defeated incumbents) before. Given the historically low approval ratings, a challenge is surely inevitable. 60%
    3: Wins the race - First time incumbents for a party almost inevitably win, Trump and Carter are the only exceptions. Biden has approval ratings worse than either of them. 33%

    40% * 60% * 33% = 8%

    Biden for me would be a lay at 24% odds, though of course I'd never personally lay at those odds, but if you back Biden then I think you're swelling what used to be called Shadsy's Christmas Bonus fund.


    * Personally I think this is ridiculous, Biden's clearly better than Trump, but that's by-the-by and I'm not a voter those answering the questions are.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 10,213
    Unpopular said:

    dodrade said:

    Which city will host Eurovision Song Contest 2023?

    Glasgow 2.2
    Manchester 5.6
    London 9
    Birmingham 13
    Liverpool 18
    Bradford 21
    Cardiff 21
    Aberdeen 26
    Belfast 26
    Leeds 26
    Sheffield 29
    Dundee 34
    Newcastle 34
    Brighton 41
    Edinburgh 41
    Bristol 51

    Why is Glasgow so high?
    I believe Edinburgh is twinned with Kiev, so I’d go with that.
    I think its because the Netflix Eurovision film with Will Ferrell was filmed at the Hydro Arena, although it was set in Edinburgh,
    Oooh, I like the idea of hosting it in Edinburgh (not just for selfish reasons, either). Twinned with Kyiv, good bit of money spent in Scotland and the UKGov looks nice... Don't know that there's anywhere in Edinburgh that could host it though.
    “UKGov looks nice”. Ho ho. Are you saying that the BBC is a branch of the UK Government? True, but not information they want to be widely understood, especially in Scotland.

    Only a miracle worker could make the shits who comprise the UKGov look nice.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,054
    Jonathan said:

    You almost have to feel sorry for Rishi. Campaigning on sound finance was always going to be a long shot with this Tory party, but the way that the right wing blob that runs the party slowly dismantled him was impressive.

    Except that Rishi himself is the epitome of the blob in action.

    He’s straight from the WEF central casting, a 0.1%er who’s never met a poor person, doesn’t know how to put petrol in his car let alone how much it costs, doesn’t understand what 10% inflation does for those on low or fixed incomes, but thinks that £300 a month electricity bills will help get him a pat on the back from his Net Zero friends in Davos.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 24,543
    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Unpopular said:

    Oooh, I like the idea of hosting it in Edinburgh (not just for selfish reasons, either). Twinned with Kyiv, good bit of money spent in Scotland and the UKGov looks nice... Don't know that there's anywhere in Edinburgh that could host it though.

    It was held in the Usher Hall in 1972...
    But that only takes about 2.5k. Is it really big enough anymore? Maybe the Castle if it was set up in tattoo mode?
    These days Ingliston would be the only place in Edinburgh, and the SECC would be a better bet
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 476
    Scott_xP said:

    Unpopular said:

    Oooh, I like the idea of hosting it in Edinburgh (not just for selfish reasons, either). Twinned with Kyiv, good bit of money spent in Scotland and the UKGov looks nice... Don't know that there's anywhere in Edinburgh that could host it though.

    It was held in the Usher Hall in 1972...
    Just a quick Google says Usher Hall can hold about 2000, whereas you're probably wanting closer to 10,000 if not more these days. It might be possible to repurpose Murrayfield (it'd have the attendees praying for sun)? But with the Hydro just down the road...
  • JonWCJonWC Posts: 282
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I reckon Truss is going to win a small majority. Bet accordingly

    Thanks, I’ve just lumped on Starmer as PM after next election
    Truss is plausible, and everybody hates Woke Shit

    That's my thinking

    I reckon the Right could win every election in the West for the next 20 years, if the leaders on the Right aren't insane - thanks to the Woke insanity of the Western Left, and the threat from Fascist Russia, etc

    Only a non-Woke Left can prosper. That is not Starmer; he is Woke but tries to hide it
    I'd tend to agree but evidently plenty of leaders on the Right are insane, at least in the US. Although the Democrats have a lunatic fringe, the Republicans have a sensible fringe.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,328
    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Unpopular said:

    Oooh, I like the idea of hosting it in Edinburgh (not just for selfish reasons, either). Twinned with Kyiv, good bit of money spent in Scotland and the UKGov looks nice... Don't know that there's anywhere in Edinburgh that could host it though.

    It was held in the Usher Hall in 1972...
    But that only takes about 2.5k. Is it really big enough anymore? Maybe the Castle if it was set up in tattoo mode?
    Murrayfield?

    I don't think we will get it though - UK Gov wont want Sturgeon parading refugees around, taking credit for UK intervention etc. Definitely not Glasgow - SNP used commonwealth games as a Indyref campaign tool last time round.


  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,793
    Sandpit said:

    Jonathan said:

    You almost have to feel sorry for Rishi. Campaigning on sound finance was always going to be a long shot with this Tory party, but the way that the right wing blob that runs the party slowly dismantled him was impressive.

    Except that Rishi himself is the epitome of the blob in action.

    He’s straight from the WEF central casting, a 0.1%er who’s never met a poor person, doesn’t know how to put petrol in his car let alone how much it costs, doesn’t understand what 10% inflation does for those on low or fixed incomes, but thinks that £300 a month electricity bills will help get him a pat on the back from his Net Zero friends in Davos.
    Rishi represents yesterday’s blob. The last gasp of the Cameron establishment. Today’s blob born out of Brexit is anchored to the Daily Mail and a network of right wing influencers. A greyer more shadowy blob.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,188
    IanB2 said:

    vik said:

    I think if Biden doesn't run, then Harris will almost certainly seek the nomination and she would then be the prohibitive favourite for the Dem nomination.

    I just don't see anyone else like Buttigieg being able to overcome the political benefits of being an incumbent VP.

    The last example of a president choosing not to run for re-election was Lyndon Johnson, and his VP Humphrey then became the nominee.

    But up against Trump, she would sink without trace, and most of the Dems know that.
    "A total of 46 percent of likely voters said that they would vote for Harris, compared to 44 percent who would back Trump in a hypothetical race. Harris also beat DeSantis by 43 percent to 42 percent, albeit within the net margin of error of 1 percent."
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/biden-and-harris-would-both-beat-either-trump-or-desantis-in-2024-poll/ar-AAZOSG5
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,479
    edited July 29
    OT PB's jet set might be interested in the Telegraph's scientifically-determined (awarding points for 36 criteria) list of the top 60 most beautiful countries. Here are the top 10 and selected others. Five of the top ten speak English.

    1 USA
    2 Australia
    3 Canada
    4 Japan
    5 Mexico
    6 Norway
    7 New Zealand
    8 India
    9 Italy
    10 Peru

    12 France
    13 Russia
    14 China

    19 United Kingdom

    22 Sweden
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/destinations/best-country-visit-travel-world-holiday-restaurant-things-to-do/ (£££)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,054
    Unpopular said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Unpopular said:

    Oooh, I like the idea of hosting it in Edinburgh (not just for selfish reasons, either). Twinned with Kyiv, good bit of money spent in Scotland and the UKGov looks nice... Don't know that there's anywhere in Edinburgh that could host it though.

    It was held in the Usher Hall in 1972...
    Just a quick Google says Usher Hall can hold about 2000, whereas you're probably wanting closer to 10,000 if not more these days. It might be possible to repurpose Murrayfield (it'd have the attendees praying for sun)? But with the Hydro just down the road...
    The scale of the staging etc required for the event, probably precludes an old hall or theatre. It needs to be a large exhibition space or arena that can be purpose-built. NEC or SECC, possibly Manchester Arena or O2.
  • Sandpit said:

    Jonathan said:

    You almost have to feel sorry for Rishi. Campaigning on sound finance was always going to be a long shot with this Tory party, but the way that the right wing blob that runs the party slowly dismantled him was impressive.

    Except that Rishi himself is the epitome of the blob in action.

    He’s straight from the WEF central casting, a 0.1%er who’s never met a poor person, doesn’t know how to put petrol in his car let alone how much it costs, doesn’t understand what 10% inflation does for those on low or fixed incomes, but thinks that £300 a month electricity bills will help get him a pat on the back from his Net Zero friends in Davos.
    Sad to say but you're right. He's shown absolutely no flexibility or understanding during this. Its possible to be from a privileged background but still have the self-awareness or understanding of what its like to be struggling, but Rishi seems to have completely gone native to Treasury orthodoxy and has little empathy.

    Truss is running circles around him. Labour would too at the next election if he wins.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,536

    IanB2 said:

    vik said:

    I think if Biden doesn't run, then Harris will almost certainly seek the nomination and she would then be the prohibitive favourite for the Dem nomination.

    I just don't see anyone else like Buttigieg being able to overcome the political benefits of being an incumbent VP.

    The last example of a president choosing not to run for re-election was Lyndon Johnson, and his VP Humphrey then became the nominee.

    But up against Trump, she would sink without trace, and most of the Dems know that.
    "A total of 46 percent of likely voters said that they would vote for Harris, compared to 44 percent who would back Trump in a hypothetical race. Harris also beat DeSantis by 43 percent to 42 percent, albeit within the net margin of error of 1 percent."
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/biden-and-harris-would-both-beat-either-trump-or-desantis-in-2024-poll/ar-AAZOSG5
    That would be enough for Trump to win in the swing states.

    If they pick "I'm wearing a blue suit" Harris then the Dems have a death wish, which they probably do.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,328
    edited July 29
    Sandpit said:

    Unpopular said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Unpopular said:

    Oooh, I like the idea of hosting it in Edinburgh (not just for selfish reasons, either). Twinned with Kyiv, good bit of money spent in Scotland and the UKGov looks nice... Don't know that there's anywhere in Edinburgh that could host it though.

    It was held in the Usher Hall in 1972...
    Just a quick Google says Usher Hall can hold about 2000, whereas you're probably wanting closer to 10,000 if not more these days. It might be possible to repurpose Murrayfield (it'd have the attendees praying for sun)? But with the Hydro just down the road...
    The scale of the staging etc required for the event, probably precludes an old hall or theatre. It needs to be a large exhibition space or arena that can be purpose-built. NEC or SECC, possibly Manchester Arena or O2.
    The new arena in Aberdeen is pretty good, and you could claim it helps support a part of the Scottish Economy that hasn't been doing very well lately (doing some work on NE economics at the mo and Eurovision could make it a bit more interesting haha)

    Capacity 15,000
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,188
    Leon said:

    I reckon Truss is going to win a small majority. Bet accordingly

    Meanwhile in the basement of the National Liberal Club:
    "Send this encrypted message 'Well done Agent Trussedup, operation Trojan is progressing as planned.' "
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,536
    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.16 Liz Truss 86%
    7.6 Rishi Sunak 13%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.15 Liz Truss 87%
    7.6 Rishi Sunak 13%

    Truss getting over 70%, currently 14.5, must be value?
    Thanks for flagging. I'm on at 12.5, and have also backed to cover over 65%. Good bet I think.
    65% is more realistic, but it isn't going to be a close contest.

    Barber Boom incoming...
    Both Cameron and Boris got into the 65-70% bracket

    At the moment I'm not seeing what would make Truss drop below that, and even if she does she won't go sub-60% IMHO
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,344
    I had some tiny bets yesterday on various Truss bands. I think if she's 60%+ I'm ahead on those, but they were dinky.

    Because I'm still greener on Sunak than Truss I'm not really inclined to back him despite the longer odds.
  • Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.16 Liz Truss 86%
    7.6 Rishi Sunak 13%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.15 Liz Truss 87%
    7.6 Rishi Sunak 13%

    Truss getting over 70%, currently 14.5, must be value?
    Thanks for flagging. I'm on at 12.5, and have also backed to cover over 65%. Good bet I think.
    65% is more realistic, but it isn't going to be a close contest.

    Barber Boom incoming...
    Both Cameron and Boris got into the 65-70% bracket

    At the moment I'm not seeing what would make Truss drop below that, and even if she does she won't go sub-60% IMHO
    60s seems most likely.

    The short turnaround on most people voting meant that there was little time to change opinions which was a handicap for Rishi, but its probably now actually saving him from falling below 30%. The longer this race is going on, the more one-sided its looking.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 7,362
    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    I just watched Truss do the Q&A at the hustings

    A remarkable transformation. She is the real deal. She has the empathy and cleverness to win the next election for the Tories (barring a scandal)

    Somehow, not by merit, purely by luck, the Tories have unearthed a star. She espouses rightwing beliefs with humanity and humour. Starmer might easily struggle against her - a younger and articulate woman. Fascinating

    She seems to have really grown into this as it has gone on.

    She’s refusing to do an interview with Andrew Neil, but she doesn’t need to. She’s pretty much got an unassailable lead now. She has little to gain from it.

    Her big challenge is the cost of living crisis especially rising energy prices which will really have an impact and people are really getting worried about.
    Quite a lot of people have children. Quite a lot of those are increasingly worried about the power the like of Tavistock have. People threatening to mess with your kids is a bigger issue than the cost of living.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,513
    Unpopular said:

    dodrade said:

    Which city will host Eurovision Song Contest 2023?

    Glasgow 2.2
    Manchester 5.6
    London 9
    Birmingham 13
    Liverpool 18
    Bradford 21
    Cardiff 21
    Aberdeen 26
    Belfast 26
    Leeds 26
    Sheffield 29
    Dundee 34
    Newcastle 34
    Brighton 41
    Edinburgh 41
    Bristol 51

    Why is Glasgow so high?
    I believe Edinburgh is twinned with Kiev, so I’d go with that.
    I think its because the Netflix Eurovision film with Will Ferrell was filmed at the Hydro Arena, although it was set in Edinburgh,
    Oooh, I like the idea of hosting it in Edinburgh (not just for selfish reasons, either). Twinned with Kyiv, good bit of money spent in Scotland and the UKGov looks nice... Don't know that there's anywhere in Edinburgh that could host it though.
    I think the largest indoor space in Edinburgh is at the Royal Highland Centre beside the airport, but I've no idea whether you could make it work as a music and broadcast arena.

    I imagine the EBU have a list of technical and other requirements for a venue that would rule out some of the obvious options in other cities, and that may explain why the obvious choice of London is so long.
  • Cookie said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    I just watched Truss do the Q&A at the hustings

    A remarkable transformation. She is the real deal. She has the empathy and cleverness to win the next election for the Tories (barring a scandal)

    Somehow, not by merit, purely by luck, the Tories have unearthed a star. She espouses rightwing beliefs with humanity and humour. Starmer might easily struggle against her - a younger and articulate woman. Fascinating

    She seems to have really grown into this as it has gone on.

    She’s refusing to do an interview with Andrew Neil, but she doesn’t need to. She’s pretty much got an unassailable lead now. She has little to gain from it.

    Her big challenge is the cost of living crisis especially rising energy prices which will really have an impact and people are really getting worried about.
    Quite a lot of people have children. Quite a lot of those are increasingly worried about the power the like of Tavistock have. People threatening to mess with your kids is a bigger issue than the cost of living.
    Bollocks.

    I have kids. Tavistock has nothing to do with my world, paying the bills does.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 22,950
    rcs1000 said:

    MikeL said:

    More very strong polls just out for the Democrats.

    All Beacon Research (A rated pollster per 538) for Fox News:

    PA Senate: Fetterman (Dem) 47, Oz (Rep) 36

    PA Governor: Shapiro (Dem) 50, Mastriano (Rep) 40

    GA Senate: Warnock (Dem) 46, Walker (Rep) 42

    GA Governor: Abrams (Dem) 44, Kemp (Rep) 47

    Oz's numbers are diabolical.
    The important one is the governor election in PA. Mastriano is a full 2020 election conspiracy theorist who will do everything in his power (plus presumably a bunch of illegal shit) to throw the 2024 election to Trump regardless of the result.
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 476

    Unpopular said:

    dodrade said:

    Which city will host Eurovision Song Contest 2023?

    Glasgow 2.2
    Manchester 5.6
    London 9
    Birmingham 13
    Liverpool 18
    Bradford 21
    Cardiff 21
    Aberdeen 26
    Belfast 26
    Leeds 26
    Sheffield 29
    Dundee 34
    Newcastle 34
    Brighton 41
    Edinburgh 41
    Bristol 51

    Why is Glasgow so high?
    I believe Edinburgh is twinned with Kiev, so I’d go with that.
    I think its because the Netflix Eurovision film with Will Ferrell was filmed at the Hydro Arena, although it was set in Edinburgh,
    Oooh, I like the idea of hosting it in Edinburgh (not just for selfish reasons, either). Twinned with Kyiv, good bit of money spent in Scotland and the UKGov looks nice... Don't know that there's anywhere in Edinburgh that could host it though.
    “UKGov looks nice”. Ho ho. Are you saying that the BBC is a branch of the UK Government? True, but not information they want to be widely understood, especially in Scotland.

    Only a miracle worker could make the shits who comprise the UKGov look nice.

    Ah, bit of an orphan phrase as I was chopping around my post! I was thinking of it more as a project that could be a positive for the Union, rather than that the BBC would cook it for propaganda purposes. A British Eurovision, in a City twinned with Kyiv, in Scotland with Skippinnish as our entry... What I'm trying to say is that it could be genuinely unifying. I think there could be something for Scotland and the UK (rather than Nationalism and Unionism, but my post was not very elegant on this point, apologies).
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 130
    Let me see if I understand things correctly.... There are credible stories circulating that say:
    - the Prime Minister is in the pay of the KGB
    - the next Prime Minister enjoys being tied up in S&M bondage games
    - the next monarch enjoys being buggered with a strap-on

    How can a Finnish Twitter rumour possibly make things worse???
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 24,543

    I think the largest indoor space in Edinburgh is at the Royal Highland Centre beside the airport, but I've no idea whether you could make it work as a music and broadcast arena.

    It used to host regular raves, and was a Festival venue when the Playhouse caught fire
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 22,950

    Which city will host Eurovision Song Contest 2023?

    Glasgow 2.2
    Manchester 5.6
    London 9
    Birmingham 13
    Liverpool 18
    Bradford 21
    Cardiff 21
    Aberdeen 26
    Belfast 26
    Leeds 26
    Sheffield 29
    Dundee 34
    Newcastle 34
    Brighton 41
    Edinburgh 41
    Bristol 51

    Why is Glasgow so high?
    I believe Edinburgh is twinned with Kiev, so I’d go with that.
    No venue of a suitable size I'd imagine. Big events in Edinburgh are open air at the castle, or previously, Murrayfield.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,328
    edited July 29
    Cookie said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    I just watched Truss do the Q&A at the hustings

    A remarkable transformation. She is the real deal. She has the empathy and cleverness to win the next election for the Tories (barring a scandal)

    Somehow, not by merit, purely by luck, the Tories have unearthed a star. She espouses rightwing beliefs with humanity and humour. Starmer might easily struggle against her - a younger and articulate woman. Fascinating

    She seems to have really grown into this as it has gone on.

    She’s refusing to do an interview with Andrew Neil, but she doesn’t need to. She’s pretty much got an unassailable lead now. She has little to gain from it.

    Her big challenge is the cost of living crisis especially rising energy prices which will really have an impact and people are really getting worried about.
    Quite a lot of people have children. Quite a lot of those are increasingly worried about the power the like of Tavistock have. People threatening to mess with your kids is a bigger issue than the cost of living.
    If you have a child 0-10, perhaps.

    But in aggregate, across the whole population? The energy crisis affects everyone. Trans, straight, gay, Scotland, England, young, old, renters, homeowners.

    Including me, as it happens. I fucked up and waited too long to move to my new tariff. Ouch.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,479

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.16 Liz Truss 86%
    7.6 Rishi Sunak 13%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.15 Liz Truss 87%
    7.6 Rishi Sunak 13%

    The trend continues this morning.

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.14 Liz Truss 88%
    8.4 Rishi Sunak 12%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.14 Liz Truss 88%
    8.4 Rishi Sunak 12%
  • Apologies cookie for using the word bollocks in my reply to you, that was rude.
  • TazTaz Posts: 5,775
    Eabhal said:

    Cookie said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    I just watched Truss do the Q&A at the hustings

    A remarkable transformation. She is the real deal. She has the empathy and cleverness to win the next election for the Tories (barring a scandal)

    Somehow, not by merit, purely by luck, the Tories have unearthed a star. She espouses rightwing beliefs with humanity and humour. Starmer might easily struggle against her - a younger and articulate woman. Fascinating

    She seems to have really grown into this as it has gone on.

    She’s refusing to do an interview with Andrew Neil, but she doesn’t need to. She’s pretty much got an unassailable lead now. She has little to gain from it.

    Her big challenge is the cost of living crisis especially rising energy prices which will really have an impact and people are really getting worried about.
    Quite a lot of people have children. Quite a lot of those are increasingly worried about the power the like of Tavistock have. People threatening to mess with your kids is a bigger issue than the cost of living.
    If you have a child 0-10, perhaps.

    But in aggregate, across the whole population? The energy crisis affects everyone. Trans, straight, gay, Scotland, England, young, old, renters, homeowners.

    Including me, as it happens. I fucked up and waited too long to move to my new tariff. Ouch.
    We are on a fixed tariff until December this year. Currently paying £100 a month. It is a gift and a curse. We are going to get hit very badly. If I can get a reasonable fixed tariff just before the fixed ends then I may do it.

    We are currently expected, post October cap, to see it go up to £350 a month. It will hurt us but we are lucky as we can afford it. In practical terms it means one or two nights out a month less than current. But for many people they will be crucified and wholesale gas prices are up yet again today.

    If this is not tackled then there will be civil unrest and people on the street.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,479
    Penddu2 said:

    Let me see if I understand things correctly.... There are credible stories circulating that say:
    - the Prime Minister is in the pay of the KGB
    - the next Prime Minister enjoys being tied up in S&M bondage games
    - the next monarch enjoys being buggered with a strap-on

    How can a Finnish Twitter rumour possibly make things worse???

    Not the next monarch.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,073
    Cookie said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    I just watched Truss do the Q&A at the hustings

    A remarkable transformation. She is the real deal. She has the empathy and cleverness to win the next election for the Tories (barring a scandal)

    Somehow, not by merit, purely by luck, the Tories have unearthed a star. She espouses rightwing beliefs with humanity and humour. Starmer might easily struggle against her - a younger and articulate woman. Fascinating

    She seems to have really grown into this as it has gone on.

    She’s refusing to do an interview with Andrew Neil, but she doesn’t need to. She’s pretty much got an unassailable lead now. She has little to gain from it.

    Her big challenge is the cost of living crisis especially rising energy prices which will really have an impact and people are really getting worried about.
    Quite a lot of people have children. Quite a lot of those are increasingly worried about the power the like of Tavistock have. People threatening to mess with your kids is a bigger issue than the cost of living.
    Polling on top issues has never shown that.

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,226

    Completely disagreed with the thread header, Biden's approval ratings are atrocious - even worse than Trump's were*. The age factor is there too.

    For him to be next US President 3 factors must be true: He must decide to run, he must get the nomination, and he must win.

    1: Decide to run - Given the age and approval ratings this looks low to me. 40%
    2: Get the nomination - Candidates have run against incumbents (and defeated incumbents) before. Given the historically low approval ratings, a challenge is surely inevitable. 60%
    3: Wins the race - First time incumbents for a party almost inevitably win, Trump and Carter are the only exceptions. Biden has approval ratings worse than either of them. 33%

    40% * 60% * 33% = 8%

    Biden for me would be a lay at 24% odds, though of course I'd never personally lay at those odds, but if you back Biden then I think you're swelling what used to be called Shadsy's Christmas Bonus fund.


    * Personally I think this is ridiculous, Biden's clearly better than Trump, but that's by-the-by and I'm not a voter those answering the questions are.

    24% is for the Dem nomination, not next US president.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 34,749

    Unpopular said:

    dodrade said:

    Which city will host Eurovision Song Contest 2023?

    Glasgow 2.2
    Manchester 5.6
    London 9
    Birmingham 13
    Liverpool 18
    Bradford 21
    Cardiff 21
    Aberdeen 26
    Belfast 26
    Leeds 26
    Sheffield 29
    Dundee 34
    Newcastle 34
    Brighton 41
    Edinburgh 41
    Bristol 51

    Why is Glasgow so high?
    I believe Edinburgh is twinned with Kiev, so I’d go with that.
    I think its because the Netflix Eurovision film with Will Ferrell was filmed at the Hydro Arena, although it was set in Edinburgh,
    Oooh, I like the idea of hosting it in Edinburgh (not just for selfish reasons, either). Twinned with Kyiv, good bit of money spent in Scotland and the UKGov looks nice... Don't know that there's anywhere in Edinburgh that could host it though.
    “UKGov looks nice”. Ho ho. Are you saying that the BBC is a branch of the UK Government? True, but not information they want to be widely understood, especially in Scotland.

    Only a miracle worker could make the shits who comprise the UKGov look nice.

    One has to assume that our own Lion of Kyiv, the FLSOJ, would try to get in on the act. Possibly not brave enough to do a Kyiv style walkabout in Edinburgh or Glasgow mind.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 37,175
    I think Truss’s big test will be whether she realises that the views of Tory members are as representative as those of Labour members. For all his manifest limitations, Starmer has clearly demonstrated that he gets there is a significant difference between the way his party membership tends to see the world and the way most people do. Truss speaks pretty fluent - if not native standard - Daily Mail and so connects well with her current electorate. The extent to which she can then go on to disappoint them may well decide the next election.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,479
    edited July 29
    BEN BACKS LIZ Rishi Sunak is guilty of abandoning his post in Cabinet… that’s why I back Liz Truss, says Ben Wallace

    Mr Wallace:

    REVEALED the PM “overruled” the ex-Chancellor to grant more cash for the armed forces.
    BACKED Ms Truss over Mr Sunak in the mega leadership battle to cut taxes now.
    DECLARED he would “love” to carry on as Defence Secretary in a Ms Truss government.
    WARNED more cash is urgently needed or the UK will miss Nato defence targets in 2026.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/19352711/ben-wallace-liz-rishi-leadership/

    The Sun has a long interview with the Defence Secretary for those of us who cannot breach the Times' paywall.

    Interestingly, Wallace just told Nick Ferrari that Sunak had not been obstructive on defence spending.
  • Completely disagreed with the thread header, Biden's approval ratings are atrocious - even worse than Trump's were*. The age factor is there too.

    For him to be next US President 3 factors must be true: He must decide to run, he must get the nomination, and he must win.

    1: Decide to run - Given the age and approval ratings this looks low to me. 40%
    2: Get the nomination - Candidates have run against incumbents (and defeated incumbents) before. Given the historically low approval ratings, a challenge is surely inevitable. 60%
    3: Wins the race - First time incumbents for a party almost inevitably win, Trump and Carter are the only exceptions. Biden has approval ratings worse than either of them. 33%

    40% * 60% * 33% = 8%

    Biden for me would be a lay at 24% odds, though of course I'd never personally lay at those odds, but if you back Biden then I think you're swelling what used to be called Shadsy's Christmas Bonus fund.


    * Personally I think this is ridiculous, Biden's clearly better than Trump, but that's by-the-by and I'm not a voter those answering the questions are.

    24% is for the Dem nomination, not next US president.
    Ah thanks for the correction, I misread that. So oddly enough 24% for the nomination is exactly what I calculated his odds of being nominated as being, so fair odds but no value there.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,328
    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Cookie said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    I just watched Truss do the Q&A at the hustings

    A remarkable transformation. She is the real deal. She has the empathy and cleverness to win the next election for the Tories (barring a scandal)

    Somehow, not by merit, purely by luck, the Tories have unearthed a star. She espouses rightwing beliefs with humanity and humour. Starmer might easily struggle against her - a younger and articulate woman. Fascinating

    She seems to have really grown into this as it has gone on.

    She’s refusing to do an interview with Andrew Neil, but she doesn’t need to. She’s pretty much got an unassailable lead now. She has little to gain from it.

    Her big challenge is the cost of living crisis especially rising energy prices which will really have an impact and people are really getting worried about.
    Quite a lot of people have children. Quite a lot of those are increasingly worried about the power the like of Tavistock have. People threatening to mess with your kids is a bigger issue than the cost of living.
    If you have a child 0-10, perhaps.

    But in aggregate, across the whole population? The energy crisis affects everyone. Trans, straight, gay, Scotland, England, young, old, renters, homeowners.

    Including me, as it happens. I fucked up and waited too long to move to my new tariff. Ouch.
    We are on a fixed tariff until December this year. Currently paying £100 a month. It is a gift and a curse. We are going to get hit very badly. If I can get a reasonable fixed tariff just before the fixed ends then I may do it.

    We are currently expected, post October cap, to see it go up to £350 a month. It will hurt us but we are lucky as we can afford it. In practical terms it means one or two nights out a month less than current. But for many people they will be crucified and wholesale gas prices are up yet again today.

    If this is not tackled then there will be civil unrest and people on the street.
    It's the standing charge increase that annoys me. Where's the incentive to reduce demand? I live in a tiny flat, don't use much energy, but still get hit by that.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,513

    Completely disagreed with the thread header, Biden's approval ratings are atrocious - even worse than Trump's were*. The age factor is there too.

    For him to be next US President 3 factors must be true: He must decide to run, he must get the nomination, and he must win.

    1: Decide to run - Given the age and approval ratings this looks low to me. 40%
    2: Get the nomination - Candidates have run against incumbents (and defeated incumbents) before. Given the historically low approval ratings, a challenge is surely inevitable. 60%
    3: Wins the race - First time incumbents for a party almost inevitably win, Trump and Carter are the only exceptions. Biden has approval ratings worse than either of them. 33%

    40% * 60% * 33% = 8%

    Biden for me would be a lay at 24% odds, though of course I'd never personally lay at those odds, but if you back Biden then I think you're swelling what used to be called Shadsy's Christmas Bonus fund.


    * Personally I think this is ridiculous, Biden's clearly better than Trump, but that's by-the-by and I'm not a voter those answering the questions are.

    I think Biden's approval ratings are reasonably fair, given the debacle in Kabul, inflation and the recession. Trump's are artificially high because of the large number of core supporters who still support him after he attempted a coup and so would support him in all circumstances.

    The only caveat I have is: who else is the Democratic nominee?

    That's essentially why old-man Biden got the nomination in 2020, and I think it's a pretty big reason why his chances of being the nominee are higher than your 24%. I look at all the other potential candidates and all I see are people who most likely are going to lose to Trump like Clinton did.

    Now, if we get to 2024, and the Republican nominee somehow isn't Trump, then the Democrats will wish that their nominee isn't Biden, but as long as there's a chance Trump will be the nominee I think Biden stays as the best chance of defeating him a second time.
  • jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 618
    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Cookie said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    I just watched Truss do the Q&A at the hustings

    A remarkable transformation. She is the real deal. She has the empathy and cleverness to win the next election for the Tories (barring a scandal)

    Somehow, not by merit, purely by luck, the Tories have unearthed a star. She espouses rightwing beliefs with humanity and humour. Starmer might easily struggle against her - a younger and articulate woman. Fascinating

    She seems to have really grown into this as it has gone on.

    She’s refusing to do an interview with Andrew Neil, but she doesn’t need to. She’s pretty much got an unassailable lead now. She has little to gain from it.

    Her big challenge is the cost of living crisis especially rising energy prices which will really have an impact and people are really getting worried about.
    Quite a lot of people have children. Quite a lot of those are increasingly worried about the power the like of Tavistock have. People threatening to mess with your kids is a bigger issue than the cost of living.
    If you have a child 0-10, perhaps.

    But in aggregate, across the whole population? The energy crisis affects everyone. Trans, straight, gay, Scotland, England, young, old, renters, homeowners.

    Including me, as it happens. I fucked up and waited too long to move to my new tariff. Ouch.
    We are on a fixed tariff until December this year. Currently paying £100 a month. It is a gift and a curse. We are going to get hit very badly. If I can get a reasonable fixed tariff just before the fixed ends then I may do it.

    We are currently expected, post October cap, to see it go up to £350 a month. It will hurt us but we are lucky as we can afford it. In practical terms it means one or two nights out a month less than current. But for many people they will be crucified and wholesale gas prices are up yet again today.

    If this is not tackled then there will be civil unrest and people on the street.
    It's the standing charge increase that annoys me. Where's the incentive to reduce demand? I live in a tiny flat, don't use much energy, but still get hit by that.
    I have solar and home battery, my standing charge is often about double my usage from the grid.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,716
    Morning all :)

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-62323048

    I sometimes wonder what's the point of defending democracy, freedom of speech etc. The paradox of freedom of expression leading to the peddling of obvious disinformation and misinformation and the horrible experience of online trolling and online abuse.

    Those who advocated for Freedom of Speech could not have conceived of Twitter or similar - the heckling of a speaker in a crowd is one thing but everyone can see who does it - Twitter allows much worse behind the cover or false names or titles.

    The sacrifices individuals made to enfranchise the population now seem worthless when, safely cocooned in their anonymity, people can utilise that freedom so negatively. Of course, the notion of the Three Minute Hate isn't just Orwellian, the systematic demonisation of races, nations and individuals has been a part of our lives for centuries.

    Repeated insulting of "Remoaners" or "Woke" people is just the modern manifestation of the mob with pitchforks or those who attacked Galileo etc. Appealing to people's fears and ignorance is one aspect of it - pandering to those fears and playing on that ignorance takes it a step further.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,328
    jayfdee said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Cookie said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    I just watched Truss do the Q&A at the hustings

    A remarkable transformation. She is the real deal. She has the empathy and cleverness to win the next election for the Tories (barring a scandal)

    Somehow, not by merit, purely by luck, the Tories have unearthed a star. She espouses rightwing beliefs with humanity and humour. Starmer might easily struggle against her - a younger and articulate woman. Fascinating

    She seems to have really grown into this as it has gone on.

    She’s refusing to do an interview with Andrew Neil, but she doesn’t need to. She’s pretty much got an unassailable lead now. She has little to gain from it.

    Her big challenge is the cost of living crisis especially rising energy prices which will really have an impact and people are really getting worried about.
    Quite a lot of people have children. Quite a lot of those are increasingly worried about the power the like of Tavistock have. People threatening to mess with your kids is a bigger issue than the cost of living.
    If you have a child 0-10, perhaps.

    But in aggregate, across the whole population? The energy crisis affects everyone. Trans, straight, gay, Scotland, England, young, old, renters, homeowners.

    Including me, as it happens. I fucked up and waited too long to move to my new tariff. Ouch.
    We are on a fixed tariff until December this year. Currently paying £100 a month. It is a gift and a curse. We are going to get hit very badly. If I can get a reasonable fixed tariff just before the fixed ends then I may do it.

    We are currently expected, post October cap, to see it go up to £350 a month. It will hurt us but we are lucky as we can afford it. In practical terms it means one or two nights out a month less than current. But for many people they will be crucified and wholesale gas prices are up yet again today.

    If this is not tackled then there will be civil unrest and people on the street.
    It's the standing charge increase that annoys me. Where's the incentive to reduce demand? I live in a tiny flat, don't use much energy, but still get hit by that.
    I have solar and home battery, my standing charge is often about double my usage from the grid.
    That's ridiculous.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.16 Liz Truss 86%
    7.6 Rishi Sunak 13%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.15 Liz Truss 87%
    7.6 Rishi Sunak 13%

    The trend continues this morning.

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.14 Liz Truss 88%
    8.4 Rishi Sunak 12%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.14 Liz Truss 88%
    8.4 Rishi Sunak 12%
    Penny in the pound Rishi lol.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,073
    Eabhal said:

    jayfdee said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Cookie said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    I just watched Truss do the Q&A at the hustings

    A remarkable transformation. She is the real deal. She has the empathy and cleverness to win the next election for the Tories (barring a scandal)

    Somehow, not by merit, purely by luck, the Tories have unearthed a star. She espouses rightwing beliefs with humanity and humour. Starmer might easily struggle against her - a younger and articulate woman. Fascinating

    She seems to have really grown into this as it has gone on.

    She’s refusing to do an interview with Andrew Neil, but she doesn’t need to. She’s pretty much got an unassailable lead now. She has little to gain from it.

    Her big challenge is the cost of living crisis especially rising energy prices which will really have an impact and people are really getting worried about.
    Quite a lot of people have children. Quite a lot of those are increasingly worried about the power the like of Tavistock have. People threatening to mess with your kids is a bigger issue than the cost of living.
    If you have a child 0-10, perhaps.

    But in aggregate, across the whole population? The energy crisis affects everyone. Trans, straight, gay, Scotland, England, young, old, renters, homeowners.

    Including me, as it happens. I fucked up and waited too long to move to my new tariff. Ouch.
    We are on a fixed tariff until December this year. Currently paying £100 a month. It is a gift and a curse. We are going to get hit very badly. If I can get a reasonable fixed tariff just before the fixed ends then I may do it.

    We are currently expected, post October cap, to see it go up to £350 a month. It will hurt us but we are lucky as we can afford it. In practical terms it means one or two nights out a month less than current. But for many people they will be crucified and wholesale gas prices are up yet again today.

    If this is not tackled then there will be civil unrest and people on the street.
    It's the standing charge increase that annoys me. Where's the incentive to reduce demand? I live in a tiny flat, don't use much energy, but still get hit by that.
    I have solar and home battery, my standing charge is often about double my usage from the grid.
    That's ridiculous.
    Why? If he’s generating a lot of electricity locally, it’s no surprise his usage charge is low. There are, however, costs associated with being connected to the grid, that pay for the basic infrastructure, so those explain the standing charge.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 31,220
    A report on Russia's economy that is less rosy than some:
    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4167193

    "Looking ahead, there is no path out of economic oblivion for Russia as long as the allied countries remain unified in maintaining and increasing sanctions pressure against Russia."
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 53,486
    Make Sunak the new Health Secretary says Fraser Nelson in Telegraph. It is the biggest job in the next Cabinet except for PM because the NHS is v close to collapse and needs a details person to find a way forward.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,328
    edited July 29

    Eabhal said:

    jayfdee said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Cookie said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    I just watched Truss do the Q&A at the hustings

    A remarkable transformation. She is the real deal. She has the empathy and cleverness to win the next election for the Tories (barring a scandal)

    Somehow, not by merit, purely by luck, the Tories have unearthed a star. She espouses rightwing beliefs with humanity and humour. Starmer might easily struggle against her - a younger and articulate woman. Fascinating

    She seems to have really grown into this as it has gone on.

    She’s refusing to do an interview with Andrew Neil, but she doesn’t need to. She’s pretty much got an unassailable lead now. She has little to gain from it.

    Her big challenge is the cost of living crisis especially rising energy prices which will really have an impact and people are really getting worried about.
    Quite a lot of people have children. Quite a lot of those are increasingly worried about the power the like of Tavistock have. People threatening to mess with your kids is a bigger issue than the cost of living.
    If you have a child 0-10, perhaps.

    But in aggregate, across the whole population? The energy crisis affects everyone. Trans, straight, gay, Scotland, England, young, old, renters, homeowners.

    Including me, as it happens. I fucked up and waited too long to move to my new tariff. Ouch.
    We are on a fixed tariff until December this year. Currently paying £100 a month. It is a gift and a curse. We are going to get hit very badly. If I can get a reasonable fixed tariff just before the fixed ends then I may do it.

    We are currently expected, post October cap, to see it go up to £350 a month. It will hurt us but we are lucky as we can afford it. In practical terms it means one or two nights out a month less than current. But for many people they will be crucified and wholesale gas prices are up yet again today.

    If this is not tackled then there will be civil unrest and people on the street.
    It's the standing charge increase that annoys me. Where's the incentive to reduce demand? I live in a tiny flat, don't use much energy, but still get hit by that.
    I have solar and home battery, my standing charge is often about double my usage from the grid.
    That's ridiculous.
    Why? If he’s generating a lot of electricity locally, it’s no surprise his usage charge is low. There are, however, costs associated with being connected to the grid, that pay for the basic infrastructure, so those explain the standing charge.

    Because the incentive is in the wrong place. Someone like @jayfdee, who is helping us all out by increasing the supply of energy, should be rewarded for doing so.

    The infrastructure charge should be rolled into the variable rate for usage. Wouldn't be too difficult. (Or at least it should be significantly discounted).
  • eekeek Posts: 20,666
    edited July 29

    Make Sunak the new Health Secretary says Fraser Nelson in Telegraph. It is the biggest job in the next Cabinet except for PM because the NHS is v close to collapse and needs a details person to find a way forward.

    Talk about a poison chalice job...

    Mind you education and justice are probably tailing the collapse of the NHS by months..
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,073
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    jayfdee said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Cookie said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    I just watched Truss do the Q&A at the hustings

    A remarkable transformation. She is the real deal. She has the empathy and cleverness to win the next election for the Tories (barring a scandal)

    Somehow, not by merit, purely by luck, the Tories have unearthed a star. She espouses rightwing beliefs with humanity and humour. Starmer might easily struggle against her - a younger and articulate woman. Fascinating

    She seems to have really grown into this as it has gone on.

    She’s refusing to do an interview with Andrew Neil, but she doesn’t need to. She’s pretty much got an unassailable lead now. She has little to gain from it.

    Her big challenge is the cost of living crisis especially rising energy prices which will really have an impact and people are really getting worried about.
    Quite a lot of people have children. Quite a lot of those are increasingly worried about the power the like of Tavistock have. People threatening to mess with your kids is a bigger issue than the cost of living.
    If you have a child 0-10, perhaps.

    But in aggregate, across the whole population? The energy crisis affects everyone. Trans, straight, gay, Scotland, England, young, old, renters, homeowners.

    Including me, as it happens. I fucked up and waited too long to move to my new tariff. Ouch.
    We are on a fixed tariff until December this year. Currently paying £100 a month. It is a gift and a curse. We are going to get hit very badly. If I can get a reasonable fixed tariff just before the fixed ends then I may do it.

    We are currently expected, post October cap, to see it go up to £350 a month. It will hurt us but we are lucky as we can afford it. In practical terms it means one or two nights out a month less than current. But for many people they will be crucified and wholesale gas prices are up yet again today.

    If this is not tackled then there will be civil unrest and people on the street.
    It's the standing charge increase that annoys me. Where's the incentive to reduce demand? I live in a tiny flat, don't use much energy, but still get hit by that.
    I have solar and home battery, my standing charge is often about double my usage from the grid.
    That's ridiculous.
    Why? If he’s generating a lot of electricity locally, it’s no surprise his usage charge is low. There are, however, costs associated with being connected to the grid, that pay for the basic infrastructure, so those explain the standing charge.

    Because the incentive is in the wrong place. Someone like @jayfdee, who is helping us all out by increasing the supply of energy, should be rewarded for doing so.

    The infrastructure charge should be rolled into the variable rate for usage. Wouldn't be too difficult. (Or at least it should be significantly discounted).
    He is rewarded for increasing the supply of energy. That is, I presume he gets paid for electricity he puts into the grid. He still needs the grid infrastructure to exist. Those infrastructure costs need to be paid for.

  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,399

    Eabhal said:

    jayfdee said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Cookie said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    I just watched Truss do the Q&A at the hustings

    A remarkable transformation. She is the real deal. She has the empathy and cleverness to win the next election for the Tories (barring a scandal)

    Somehow, not by merit, purely by luck, the Tories have unearthed a star. She espouses rightwing beliefs with humanity and humour. Starmer might easily struggle against her - a younger and articulate woman. Fascinating

    She seems to have really grown into this as it has gone on.

    She’s refusing to do an interview with Andrew Neil, but she doesn’t need to. She’s pretty much got an unassailable lead now. She has little to gain from it.

    Her big challenge is the cost of living crisis especially rising energy prices which will really have an impact and people are really getting worried about.
    Quite a lot of people have children. Quite a lot of those are increasingly worried about the power the like of Tavistock have. People threatening to mess with your kids is a bigger issue than the cost of living.
    If you have a child 0-10, perhaps.

    But in aggregate, across the whole population? The energy crisis affects everyone. Trans, straight, gay, Scotland, England, young, old, renters, homeowners.

    Including me, as it happens. I fucked up and waited too long to move to my new tariff. Ouch.
    We are on a fixed tariff until December this year. Currently paying £100 a month. It is a gift and a curse. We are going to get hit very badly. If I can get a reasonable fixed tariff just before the fixed ends then I may do it.

    We are currently expected, post October cap, to see it go up to £350 a month. It will hurt us but we are lucky as we can afford it. In practical terms it means one or two nights out a month less than current. But for many people they will be crucified and wholesale gas prices are up yet again today.

    If this is not tackled then there will be civil unrest and people on the street.
    It's the standing charge increase that annoys me. Where's the incentive to reduce demand? I live in a tiny flat, don't use much energy, but still get hit by that.
    I have solar and home battery, my standing charge is often about double my usage from the grid.
    That's ridiculous.
    Why? If he’s generating a lot of electricity locally, it’s no surprise his usage charge is low. There are, however, costs associated with being connected to the grid, that pay for the basic infrastructure, so those explain the standing charge.

    In normal times you can get zero or nominal standing charges with high usage charges. Ideal in certain circumstances, e.g. us with a 2nd home with very low usage. However, with the cap, suppliers are increasing both to the limit.
  • eekeek Posts: 20,666
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    jayfdee said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Cookie said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    I just watched Truss do the Q&A at the hustings

    A remarkable transformation. She is the real deal. She has the empathy and cleverness to win the next election for the Tories (barring a scandal)

    Somehow, not by merit, purely by luck, the Tories have unearthed a star. She espouses rightwing beliefs with humanity and humour. Starmer might easily struggle against her - a younger and articulate woman. Fascinating

    She seems to have really grown into this as it has gone on.

    She’s refusing to do an interview with Andrew Neil, but she doesn’t need to. She’s pretty much got an unassailable lead now. She has little to gain from it.

    Her big challenge is the cost of living crisis especially rising energy prices which will really have an impact and people are really getting worried about.
    Quite a lot of people have children. Quite a lot of those are increasingly worried about the power the like of Tavistock have. People threatening to mess with your kids is a bigger issue than the cost of living.
    If you have a child 0-10, perhaps.

    But in aggregate, across the whole population? The energy crisis affects everyone. Trans, straight, gay, Scotland, England, young, old, renters, homeowners.

    Including me, as it happens. I fucked up and waited too long to move to my new tariff. Ouch.
    We are on a fixed tariff until December this year. Currently paying £100 a month. It is a gift and a curse. We are going to get hit very badly. If I can get a reasonable fixed tariff just before the fixed ends then I may do it.

    We are currently expected, post October cap, to see it go up to £350 a month. It will hurt us but we are lucky as we can afford it. In practical terms it means one or two nights out a month less than current. But for many people they will be crucified and wholesale gas prices are up yet again today.

    If this is not tackled then there will be civil unrest and people on the street.
    It's the standing charge increase that annoys me. Where's the incentive to reduce demand? I live in a tiny flat, don't use much energy, but still get hit by that.
    I have solar and home battery, my standing charge is often about double my usage from the grid.
    That's ridiculous.
    Why? If he’s generating a lot of electricity locally, it’s no surprise his usage charge is low. There are, however, costs associated with being connected to the grid, that pay for the basic infrastructure, so those explain the standing charge.

    Because the incentive is in the wrong place. Someone like @jayfdee, who is helping us all out by increasing the supply of energy, should be rewarded for doing so.

    The infrastructure charge should be rolled into the variable rate for usage. Wouldn't be too difficult. (Or at least it should be significantly discounted).
    Given that the standing charge is being used to recover the losses the bankrupt firms have cost the industry that isn't going to happen at the moment..
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,636

    R&W Red Wall poll (25-26 July)

    - “Do you feel like the Government has been making a clear effort to ‘level up’ the area in which you live?”

    Only 24% of 2019 Con voters responded Yes.

    The Voting Intention of 2019 Con voters:

    Con 70%
    Lab 22%
    LD 5%
    Grn 1%
    oth 2%

    The Voting Intention of 2019 Did Not Vote:

    Lab 71%
    LD 12%
    Grn 9%
    Ref 5%
    Con 0
    oth 3%

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-red-wall-voting-intention-25-26-july-2022//

    The Tories will be praying for record low turnout.

    That 0% Tory vote for the 2019 DNVs is very striking - as you say, actually getting out the vote will be crucial. I see Labour is preferred to the Tories in the Red Wall on immigration (30-21) and pretty much everything else.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746
    edited July 29

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    jayfdee said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Cookie said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    I just watched Truss do the Q&A at the hustings

    A remarkable transformation. She is the real deal. She has the empathy and cleverness to win the next election for the Tories (barring a scandal)

    Somehow, not by merit, purely by luck, the Tories have unearthed a star. She espouses rightwing beliefs with humanity and humour. Starmer might easily struggle against her - a younger and articulate woman. Fascinating

    She seems to have really grown into this as it has gone on.

    She’s refusing to do an interview with Andrew Neil, but she doesn’t need to. She’s pretty much got an unassailable lead now. She has little to gain from it.

    Her big challenge is the cost of living crisis especially rising energy prices which will really have an impact and people are really getting worried about.
    Quite a lot of people have children. Quite a lot of those are increasingly worried about the power the like of Tavistock have. People threatening to mess with your kids is a bigger issue than the cost of living.
    If you have a child 0-10, perhaps.

    But in aggregate, across the whole population? The energy crisis affects everyone. Trans, straight, gay, Scotland, England, young, old, renters, homeowners.

    Including me, as it happens. I fucked up and waited too long to move to my new tariff. Ouch.
    We are on a fixed tariff until December this year. Currently paying £100 a month. It is a gift and a curse. We are going to get hit very badly. If I can get a reasonable fixed tariff just before the fixed ends then I may do it.

    We are currently expected, post October cap, to see it go up to £350 a month. It will hurt us but we are lucky as we can afford it. In practical terms it means one or two nights out a month less than current. But for many people they will be crucified and wholesale gas prices are up yet again today.

    If this is not tackled then there will be civil unrest and people on the street.
    It's the standing charge increase that annoys me. Where's the incentive to reduce demand? I live in a tiny flat, don't use much energy, but still get hit by that.
    I have solar and home battery, my standing charge is often about double my usage from the grid.
    That's ridiculous.
    Why? If he’s generating a lot of electricity locally, it’s no surprise his usage charge is low. There are, however, costs associated with being connected to the grid, that pay for the basic infrastructure, so those explain the standing charge.

    Because the incentive is in the wrong place. Someone like @jayfdee, who is helping us all out by increasing the supply of energy, should be rewarded for doing so.

    The infrastructure charge should be rolled into the variable rate for usage. Wouldn't be too difficult. (Or at least it should be significantly discounted).
    He is rewarded for increasing the supply of energy. That is, I presume he gets paid for electricity he puts into the grid. He still needs the grid infrastructure to exist. Those infrastructure costs need to be paid for.

    Hold on, that's what the standing charge SHOULD be for but AIUI the cost of all the failing leccy spivcos has been added into the standing charge whereas as that's a one off (You'd damn well hope) event the cost of leccy failure ought to have been added to the general debt/tax burden rather than an ongoing standing charge I think ?
    The standing charge has increased substanitally, way beyond the actual cost of maintaining infrastructure.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,941
    Nigelb said:

    Interesting thread on the technical details of HIMARS.
    https://twitter.com/kenshirriff/status/1552723519087198208

    Pretty easy for (eg) China or South Korea or several European countries to build an equivalent if they wanted to.
    Not easy at all for Russia.

    I think he left out is high quality solid fuel rockets. Getting a precise, even burn, with the right thrust profile, reliably and safely in solid fuel is not trivial. The US has excelled at this, combining it with very high thrust for weight.

    The Soviet Union (past and former) never really got to the top of that game.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,328

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    jayfdee said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Cookie said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    I just watched Truss do the Q&A at the hustings

    A remarkable transformation. She is the real deal. She has the empathy and cleverness to win the next election for the Tories (barring a scandal)

    Somehow, not by merit, purely by luck, the Tories have unearthed a star. She espouses rightwing beliefs with humanity and humour. Starmer might easily struggle against her - a younger and articulate woman. Fascinating

    She seems to have really grown into this as it has gone on.

    She’s refusing to do an interview with Andrew Neil, but she doesn’t need to. She’s pretty much got an unassailable lead now. She has little to gain from it.

    Her big challenge is the cost of living crisis especially rising energy prices which will really have an impact and people are really getting worried about.
    Quite a lot of people have children. Quite a lot of those are increasingly worried about the power the like of Tavistock have. People threatening to mess with your kids is a bigger issue than the cost of living.
    If you have a child 0-10, perhaps.

    But in aggregate, across the whole population? The energy crisis affects everyone. Trans, straight, gay, Scotland, England, young, old, renters, homeowners.

    Including me, as it happens. I fucked up and waited too long to move to my new tariff. Ouch.
    We are on a fixed tariff until December this year. Currently paying £100 a month. It is a gift and a curse. We are going to get hit very badly. If I can get a reasonable fixed tariff just before the fixed ends then I may do it.

    We are currently expected, post October cap, to see it go up to £350 a month. It will hurt us but we are lucky as we can afford it. In practical terms it means one or two nights out a month less than current. But for many people they will be crucified and wholesale gas prices are up yet again today.

    If this is not tackled then there will be civil unrest and people on the street.
    It's the standing charge increase that annoys me. Where's the incentive to reduce demand? I live in a tiny flat, don't use much energy, but still get hit by that.
    I have solar and home battery, my standing charge is often about double my usage from the grid.
    That's ridiculous.
    Why? If he’s generating a lot of electricity locally, it’s no surprise his usage charge is low. There are, however, costs associated with being connected to the grid, that pay for the basic infrastructure, so those explain the standing charge.

    Because the incentive is in the wrong place. Someone like @jayfdee, who is helping us all out by increasing the supply of energy, should be rewarded for doing so.

    The infrastructure charge should be rolled into the variable rate for usage. Wouldn't be too difficult. (Or at least it should be significantly discounted).
    He is rewarded for increasing the supply of energy. That is, I presume he gets paid for electricity he puts into the grid. He still needs the grid infrastructure to exist. Those infrastructure costs need to be paid for.

    Of course. I'm just suggesting that he/she, and anyone else considering putting solar panels up, should be even further incentivised. There is the faff and cost of putting them up in the first place.

    You also have to consider how irrational we all are. The existence of a standing charge, even though you are contributing to lowering prices, would be enough for many people to just say "fuck off" and leave it.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,513

    Make Sunak the new Health Secretary says Fraser Nelson in Telegraph. It is the biggest job in the next Cabinet except for PM because the NHS is v close to collapse and needs a details person to find a way forward.

    If I was a Tory PM I would read Hunt's new book and decide whether I broadly agreed with it, and then appoint Hunt as Health Secretary.

    I think someone becoming Health Secretary needs to have a good grasp on the details, the problems, and have some sort of a plan, rather than spend a few months learning on the job.

    I make no comment on whether Hunt has a good plan, but there's at least evidence that he's thought about the issues for some time, which is more than you can say for any other Tory MP as far as I can see.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,941

    Nigelb said:

    Interesting thread on the technical details of HIMARS.
    https://twitter.com/kenshirriff/status/1552723519087198208

    Pretty easy for (eg) China or South Korea or several European countries to build an equivalent if they wanted to.
    Not easy at all for Russia.

    That's fascinating thanks. Note that the processors mentioned are *really* old: it mentions a 90nm PPC processor; current Russian fabs can go down to 65nm (*) - which is perfectly fine for many applications.

    The Russians could *easily* produce this sort of system. The problem they would have is paying for it: these things are not cheap and take a long time to develop. The missiles are also really expensive; Russia may prefer less-exact but cheaper rockets they can build in massive amounts.

    Incidentally, an acquaintance was responsible for a team building a 'cheap' GPS module for satellites (GPS can be used in low earth orbit, but there are complexities). To reduce cost, they used a GPS reciever chip off mobile phones that weighed a few grams. By the time several had been installed for redundancy and error checking, an independent power supply added, a radiation-hardened case, and control/monitoring circuitry, the module weighted a kilogram!

    (*) I do wonder if they'll face problems keeping those fabs running under sanctions...
    I did giggle at the description of 90nm processors as high performance. Mind you they were replacing (apparently) Z80s….

    Your acquaintance - Did they manage to find GPS receiver chips without the velocity limitation of did they mod them?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,636
    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I reckon Truss is going to win a small majority. Bet accordingly

    Thanks, I’ve just lumped on Starmer as PM after next election
    Truss is plausible, and everybody hates Woke Shit

    That's my thinking

    I reckon the Right could win every election in the West for the next 20 years, if the leaders on the Right aren't insane - thanks to the Woke insanity of the Western Left, and the threat from Fascist Russia, etc

    Only a non-Woke Left can prosper. That is not Starmer; he is Woke but tries to hide it
    Woke issues will take a backseat over the impending cost of living crisis caused by rising energy bills this coming winter. Especially if it’s a cold one.

    Most people don’t care about these work issues. It’s only a small minority on either side of the debate who do.
    Yes, and focusing on them looks like Labour going on about nationalising the water industry - it's not that people disagree, but they also note that the party isn't focused on issues that really matter to them. I doubt if most parents have even heard of Tavistock, let alone have a view on its policies, and whether toilets are single-sex or not is also marginal for most. I'll be delighted from the labour viewpoint if Truss makes these issues central in the next election manifesto.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746
    edited July 29
    Truss - PM
    Clarke - Chancellor
    Wallace - Defence (Small chance of Foreign)

    Those are the three I'm very sure of, with the possible exception of Wallace to Foreign. If he goes to Foreign then he's likely to be next leader, staying at defence would indicate to me he doesn't want the top job - so though he'll be one of the likely early favourites along with Badenoch for Tory leader after next he should be opposed in the market if that's the case.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,513

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    jayfdee said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Cookie said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    I just watched Truss do the Q&A at the hustings

    A remarkable transformation. She is the real deal. She has the empathy and cleverness to win the next election for the Tories (barring a scandal)

    Somehow, not by merit, purely by luck, the Tories have unearthed a star. She espouses rightwing beliefs with humanity and humour. Starmer might easily struggle against her - a younger and articulate woman. Fascinating

    She seems to have really grown into this as it has gone on.

    She’s refusing to do an interview with Andrew Neil, but she doesn’t need to. She’s pretty much got an unassailable lead now. She has little to gain from it.

    Her big challenge is the cost of living crisis especially rising energy prices which will really have an impact and people are really getting worried about.
    Quite a lot of people have children. Quite a lot of those are increasingly worried about the power the like of Tavistock have. People threatening to mess with your kids is a bigger issue than the cost of living.
    If you have a child 0-10, perhaps.

    But in aggregate, across the whole population? The energy crisis affects everyone. Trans, straight, gay, Scotland, England, young, old, renters, homeowners.

    Including me, as it happens. I fucked up and waited too long to move to my new tariff. Ouch.
    We are on a fixed tariff until December this year. Currently paying £100 a month. It is a gift and a curse. We are going to get hit very badly. If I can get a reasonable fixed tariff just before the fixed ends then I may do it.

    We are currently expected, post October cap, to see it go up to £350 a month. It will hurt us but we are lucky as we can afford it. In practical terms it means one or two nights out a month less than current. But for many people they will be crucified and wholesale gas prices are up yet again today.

    If this is not tackled then there will be civil unrest and people on the street.
    It's the standing charge increase that annoys me. Where's the incentive to reduce demand? I live in a tiny flat, don't use much energy, but still get hit by that.
    I have solar and home battery, my standing charge is often about double my usage from the grid.
    That's ridiculous.
    Why? If he’s generating a lot of electricity locally, it’s no surprise his usage charge is low. There are, however, costs associated with being connected to the grid, that pay for the basic infrastructure, so those explain the standing charge.

    Because the incentive is in the wrong place. Someone like @jayfdee, who is helping us all out by increasing the supply of energy, should be rewarded for doing so.

    The infrastructure charge should be rolled into the variable rate for usage. Wouldn't be too difficult. (Or at least it should be significantly discounted).
    He is rewarded for increasing the supply of energy. That is, I presume he gets paid for electricity he puts into the grid. He still needs the grid infrastructure to exist. Those infrastructure costs need to be paid for.

    The standing charge has increased massively recently. This isn't because the grid infrastructure is a lot more expensive. Mainly it's because of the energy company failures that need bailing out - that's all going on the standing charge.

    Aside from the TV licence fee, the energy standing charge is one of the very few taxes or charges made on a flat-rate basis. We should get rid of it.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,479

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.16 Liz Truss 86%
    7.6 Rishi Sunak 13%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.15 Liz Truss 87%
    7.6 Rishi Sunak 13%

    The trend continues this morning.

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.14 Liz Truss 88%
    8.4 Rishi Sunak 12%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.14 Liz Truss 88%
    8.4 Rishi Sunak 12%
    8/1 against Rishi. 8/1 on Liz.

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.13 Liz Truss 88%
    8.8 Rishi Sunak 11%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.12 Liz Truss 89%
    9 Rishi Sunak 11%
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 10,213

    R&W Red Wall poll (25-26 July)

    - “Do you feel like the Government has been making a clear effort to ‘level up’ the area in which you live?”

    Only 24% of 2019 Con voters responded Yes.

    The Voting Intention of 2019 Con voters:

    Con 70%
    Lab 22%
    LD 5%
    Grn 1%
    oth 2%

    The Voting Intention of 2019 Did Not Vote:

    Lab 71%
    LD 12%
    Grn 9%
    Ref 5%
    Con 0
    oth 3%

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-red-wall-voting-intention-25-26-july-2022//

    The Tories will be praying for record low turnout.

    That 0% Tory vote for the 2019 DNVs is very striking - as you say, actually getting out the vote will be crucial. I see Labour is preferred to the Tories in the Red Wall on immigration (30-21) and pretty much everything else.
    Yes. I thought you’d like those DNV figures Nick.

    Normally, I tend to ignore DNV VI, however, this time they are important. Why? One word answer: Corbyn.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 9,347
    Penddu2 said:

    Let me see if I understand things correctly.... There are credible stories circulating that say:
    - the Prime Minister is in the pay of the KGB
    - the next Prime Minister enjoys being tied up in S&M bondage games
    - the next monarch enjoys being buggered with a strap-on

    How can a Finnish Twitter rumour possibly make things worse???

    Define 'credible'
  • Biden is a terrible President but still better than Trump. So if he stops Trump again then I’m on board
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,735
    Nigelb said:

    Just a reminder that this is supposed to be a judge, not a politician.

    In his Rome speech on religious liberty, Justice Alito mocked "foreign leaders" who condemned his opinion overturning Roe v. Wade, including Boris Johnson, Macron, Trudeau, and ... Prince Harry.

    Of Boris, Alito quipped: "He paid the price."

    https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1552743092150800384

    Well they all commented on US domestic law which is not their concern either
  • Labour have soared to a 13-point lead in the polls as Conservatives scrap over their future leadership, according to the latest exclusive survey by Savanta for The Independent.

    The advantage recorded by Labour in the poll comes close to its best performance since Sir Keir Starmer became leader in 2019, and would put him on course for a comfortable overall majority in the House of Commons if repeated at the next general election.
  • Compared to a similar poll by Savanta a month ago, Tories shed five points, tumbling from 34 to 29 per cent, while Labour gained a point to move up from 41 to 42.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 35,987
    Wowser. Just catching up on the hustings.

    Truss says she is a "keen ice skater".

    I think we all know that that means, don't we.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,735

    Completely disagreed with the thread header, Biden's approval ratings are atrocious - even worse than Trump's were*. The age factor is there too.

    For him to be next US President 3 factors must be true: He must decide to run, he must get the nomination, and he must win.

    1: Decide to run - Given the age and approval ratings this looks low to me. 40%
    2: Get the nomination - Candidates have run against incumbents (and defeated incumbents) before. Given the historically low approval ratings, a challenge is surely inevitable. 60%
    3: Wins the race - First time incumbents for a party almost inevitably win, Trump and Carter are the only exceptions. Biden has approval ratings worse than either of them. 33%

    40% * 60% * 33% = 8%

    Biden for me would be a lay at 24% odds, though of course I'd never personally lay at those odds, but if you back Biden then I think you're swelling what used to be called Shadsy's Christmas Bonus fund.


    * Personally I think this is ridiculous, Biden's clearly better than Trump, but that's by-the-by and I'm not a voter those answering the questions are.

    I think Biden's approval ratings are reasonably fair, given the debacle in Kabul, inflation and the recession. Trump's are artificially high because of the large number of core supporters who still support him after he attempted a coup and so would support him in all circumstances.

    The only caveat I have is: who else is the Democratic nominee?

    That's essentially why old-man Biden got the nomination in 2020, and I think it's a pretty big reason why his chances of being the nominee are higher than your 24%. I look at all the other potential candidates and all I see are people who most likely are going to lose to Trump like Clinton did.

    Now, if we get to 2024, and the Republican nominee somehow isn't Trump, then the Democrats will wish that their nominee isn't Biden, but as long as there's a chance Trump will be the nominee I think Biden stays as the best chance of defeating him a second time.
    Buttigieg already beats Biden and Harris in New Hampshire Democratic primary polls, that is unprecedented against an incumbent President. Certainly since Bobby Kennedy and LBJ pre 1968
    https://twitter.com/PhilipWegmann/status/1551967818123542528?s=20&t=3U3teZ-0FwQB5bLN9CYilw
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,479
    edited July 29
    Pulpstar said:

    Truss - PM
    Clarke - Chancellor
    Wallace - Defence (Small chance of Foreign)

    Those are the three I'm very sure of, with the possible exception of Wallace to Foreign. If he goes to Foreign then he's likely to be next leader, staying at defence would indicate to me he doesn't want the top job - so though he'll be one of the likely early favourites along with Badenoch for Tory leader after next he should be opposed in the market if that's the case.

    From The Sun which carries a Ben Wallace interview referred to earlier:-

    BEN Wallace does not rule out running to be the next General Secretary of Nato. The Defence Secretary has long been tipped to lead the Western alliance when current boss Jens Stoltenberg steps down next year.

    Asked if he would be Britain’s candidate for the role, he told The Sun: “Who knows? It’s a fantastic opportunity.” But he added: “You have to get support from every nation. It’s a big ask.”

    The last Brit to get the role was Labour peer Lord Robertson, who served from 1999 to 2004.

    Asked about speculation that Boris Johnson himself could get the job, Mr Wallace said it would be “lovely” to see. But the Defence Secretary added: “He’d have to get Mr Macron’s support. Now I’m not a bookie…”

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/19352711/ben-wallace-liz-rishi-leadership/
  • Starmer Labour isn’t very woke, much less than Corbyn Labour was.

    What should concern the Tories is that the woke wars are just showing them to be out of touch like what happened in the Oz
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,941
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Interesting thread on the technical details of HIMARS.
    https://twitter.com/kenshirriff/status/1552723519087198208

    Pretty easy for (eg) China or South Korea or several European countries to build an equivalent if they wanted to.
    Not easy at all for Russia.

    That's fascinating thanks. Note that the processors mentioned are *really* old: it mentions a 90nm PPC processor; current Russian fabs can go down to 65nm (*) - which is perfectly fine for many applications.

    The Russians could *easily* produce this sort of system. The problem they would have is paying for it: these things are not cheap and take a long time to develop. The missiles are also really expensive; Russia may prefer less-exact but cheaper rockets they can build in massive amounts.

    Incidentally, an acquaintance was responsible for a team building a 'cheap' GPS module for satellites (GPS can be used in low earth orbit, but there are complexities). To reduce cost, they used a GPS reciever chip off mobile phones that weighed a few grams. By the time several had been installed for redundancy and error checking, an independent power supply added, a radiation-hardened case, and control/monitoring circuitry, the module weighted a kilogram!

    (*) I do wonder if they'll face problems keeping those fabs running under sanctions...
    What the Russians can probably do, is put together a couple of prototypes of something that looks similar, for the Red Square parade, as has been their MO since the Cold War ended.

    The Russians appear to have no problem making big guns and lots of ammo for them, but seem to really struggle to get anything advanced actually into production - hence why we see so much legacy equipment in theatre in Ukraine. While they have the theoretical capability to make advanced military electronics, actually doing so seems to be beyond them. The Su-27 M upgrade took nearly two decades to fit to 10 aircraft, and at least one of them has been destroyed already.

    It’s taken a little longer than expected, but there are now reports of many factories being forced to close because of the sanctions, as stocks of raw materials and spares for factory equipment dry up. The story of the Polish tractors from a few months ago, illustrates the problem well.

    Russia is more than self-sufficient in food, so people aren’t going to be starving, but lots of unemployment will eventually lead to unrest.
    Actually the Russians are having problems with gun barrels. To make modern, quality artillery you need high quality steel blanks of the right quality. Then you need big, expensive and precise tooling to make an accurate barrel from that.

    They are having problems with the whole process, starting with the steel.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,479
    TOPPING said:

    Wowser. Just catching up on the hustings.

    Truss says she is a "keen ice skater".

    I think we all know that that means, don't we.

    Another photo-op?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,344
    What's the ceiling on Sunak's price? He's gone from 7.6 to 9 in a couple of hours (largely due to Wallace, it seems).
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,399
    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I reckon Truss is going to win a small majority. Bet accordingly

    Thanks, I’ve just lumped on Starmer as PM after next election
    Truss is plausible, and everybody hates Woke Shit

    That's my thinking

    I reckon the Right could win every election in the West for the next 20 years, if the leaders on the Right aren't insane - thanks to the Woke insanity of the Western Left, and the threat from Fascist Russia, etc

    Only a non-Woke Left can prosper. That is not Starmer; he is Woke but tries to hide it
    Woke issues will take a backseat over the impending cost of living crisis caused by rising energy bills this coming winter. Especially if it’s a cold one.

    Most people don’t care about these work issues. It’s only a small minority on either side of the debate who do.
    Agree 100%. Woke is a significant subset of political correctness which is a subset of jobs worth. We have always had it, although it evolves over time. It is and always has existed in local authorities, government and large corporations. It isn't just a left wing thing, it is a case of not using common sense most of the time. It drives me mad when it affects me. The right might make it an issue but in the grand scheme of things it really isn't. It only seems to be Leon and Casino who really get wound up about it here.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,513
    HYUFD said:

    Completely disagreed with the thread header, Biden's approval ratings are atrocious - even worse than Trump's were*. The age factor is there too.

    For him to be next US President 3 factors must be true: He must decide to run, he must get the nomination, and he must win.

    1: Decide to run - Given the age and approval ratings this looks low to me. 40%
    2: Get the nomination - Candidates have run against incumbents (and defeated incumbents) before. Given the historically low approval ratings, a challenge is surely inevitable. 60%
    3: Wins the race - First time incumbents for a party almost inevitably win, Trump and Carter are the only exceptions. Biden has approval ratings worse than either of them. 33%

    40% * 60% * 33% = 8%

    Biden for me would be a lay at 24% odds, though of course I'd never personally lay at those odds, but if you back Biden then I think you're swelling what used to be called Shadsy's Christmas Bonus fund.


    * Personally I think this is ridiculous, Biden's clearly better than Trump, but that's by-the-by and I'm not a voter those answering the questions are.

    I think Biden's approval ratings are reasonably fair, given the debacle in Kabul, inflation and the recession. Trump's are artificially high because of the large number of core supporters who still support him after he attempted a coup and so would support him in all circumstances.

    The only caveat I have is: who else is the Democratic nominee?

    That's essentially why old-man Biden got the nomination in 2020, and I think it's a pretty big reason why his chances of being the nominee are higher than your 24%. I look at all the other potential candidates and all I see are people who most likely are going to lose to Trump like Clinton did.

    Now, if we get to 2024, and the Republican nominee somehow isn't Trump, then the Democrats will wish that their nominee isn't Biden, but as long as there's a chance Trump will be the nominee I think Biden stays as the best chance of defeating him a second time.
    Buttigieg already beats Biden and Harris in New Hampshire Democratic primary polls, that is unprecedented against an incumbent President. Certainly since Bobby Kennedy and LBJ pre 1968
    https://twitter.com/PhilipWegmann/status/1551967818123542528?s=20&t=3U3teZ-0FwQB5bLN9CYilw
    Do you know how Buttigieg does in polls against Trump? My impression is that Biden is still the strongest Democrat in those polls.

    If Trump declares he is running again in 2024, then that polling will become more important.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 53,486

    Biden is a terrible President but still better than Trump. So if he stops Trump again then I’m on board

    He's too old to campaign properly to stop Trump is my worry.

    There will be falls, trips, speaking gaffes and total exhaustion days where he just disappears. I say this as someone who wanted him to run last time to stop Trump.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,239
    David Gauke's reasonably sympathetic article about Truss in the current New Statesman is well worth five minutes of your time.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,513

    What's the ceiling on Sunak's price? He's gone from 7.6 to 9 in a couple of hours (largely due to Wallace, it seems).

    Good question. I'd expect him to lengthen some more if there's nothing explosively damaging about Truss in the Sunday papers. So surely he can't drift too much further before then?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,112
    A very useful guide to the (ludicrous and hilarious) law thus far on the Vardy case from the excellent David Allen Green.

    FWIW I think Rooney will win, but it could go either way of course. A key matter is the right inferences to be drawn from missing evidence/witnesses.

    https://davidallengreen.com/2022/07/a-guide-to-todays-wagatha-christie-judgment-a-case-that-should-never-have-gone-to-trial/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730

    Cookie said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    I just watched Truss do the Q&A at the hustings

    A remarkable transformation. She is the real deal. She has the empathy and cleverness to win the next election for the Tories (barring a scandal)

    Somehow, not by merit, purely by luck, the Tories have unearthed a star. She espouses rightwing beliefs with humanity and humour. Starmer might easily struggle against her - a younger and articulate woman. Fascinating

    She seems to have really grown into this as it has gone on.

    She’s refusing to do an interview with Andrew Neil, but she doesn’t need to. She’s pretty much got an unassailable lead now. She has little to gain from it.

    Her big challenge is the cost of living crisis especially rising energy prices which will really have an impact and people are really getting worried about.
    Quite a lot of people have children. Quite a lot of those are increasingly worried about the power the like of Tavistock have. People threatening to mess with your kids is a bigger issue than the cost of living.
    Bollocks.

    I have kids. Tavistock has nothing to do with my world, paying the bills does.
    The reality is that the large majority of trans kids will go nowhere near the Tavistock (and probably its successors) either.
This discussion has been closed.