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The first post of PB’s 6th White House race – politicalbetting.com
The first post of PB’s 6th White House race – politicalbetting.com
While all the PB focus for months has been on UK politics we have done very little on what is generally the biggest political betting event of all – the US Presidential election the next of which takes place in 2024. This will be the 6th White House race to be covered on PB.
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No way is he up to a brutal campaign never mind actually being POTUS for extra 4 years.
1.16 Liz Truss 86%
7.6 Rishi Sunak 13%
Next Conservative leader
1.15 Liz Truss 87%
7.6 Rishi Sunak 13%
He's just Biden his time.
I'll get my dressing gown.
Goodnight!
It isn't THAT important. Good night xx.
Cannot believe how easily Sunak could have pushed Truss out and be up against, and annihilating, PM.
Apple network traffic takes mysterious detour through Russia
Land of Putin capable of attacking routes in cyberspace as well as real world
Apple's internet traffic took an unwelcome detour through Russian networking equipment for about twelve hours between July 26 and July 27.
https://www.theregister.com/2022/07/27/apple_networking_traffic_russia_bgp/
Lab 41% (+1)
Con 33% (-1)
LD 11% (-1)
Grn 5% (nc)
SNP 4% (nc)
Ref 4% (+1)
oth 2% (nc)
https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1491387402136715268
It’s the only explanation I can think of for his risible recent face list which left him unable to blink.
It seems amazing to me that, after all the things that Trump did, and that the Republicans in Congress colluded with, that the Republicans even still have a chance at all. In any sort of sane politics they'd be looking at decades of rehabilitating their reputation.
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1h
The Commonwealth Games opening ceremony is so left-wing!
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3574672-buttigieg-edges-out-biden-among-democrats-in-new-hampshire-poll/
Biden could well be the Macron to Biden's Hollande and Trump's Sarkozy
https://theweek.com/pete-buttigieg/1007477/pete-buttigieg-is-the-most-favored-member-of-bidens-cabinet-poll-finds
The book is quite readable, and has, suprisingly, many funny stories, like the time Bok, a Dinka, encountered snow in North Dakota -- on his bicycle.
(Incidentally, I think his story was one of the reasons that South Sudan gained independence, and I wish we had been able to do more for that troubled country since independence. But neither Obama nor Trump were much interested in that difficult problem.)
If he runs he can use the argument "I am the one who can beat Trumps"
If he doesn't Biden is toast
England 2.54
Germany 3.09
Draw 3.3
The city of Berlin started switching off spotlights illuminating its historic monuments as part of a national effort to save energy in the face of Russian gas shortages."
https://www.thelocal.de/20220728/berlin-monuments-fall-dark-to-save-energy/
BY-ELECTION RESULT
Lexden and Braiswick, Colchester Borough Council
Con: 1372
Lib Dem: 621
Lab: 161
Conservative HOLD
https://t.co/csJiwPSR9C
Glasgow 2.2
Manchester 5.6
London 9
Birmingham 13
Liverpool 18
Bradford 21
Cardiff 21
Aberdeen 26
Belfast 26
Leeds 26
Sheffield 29
Dundee 34
Newcastle 34
Brighton 41
Edinburgh 41
Bristol 51
US Presidents have their own version; to me, they are usually either Elmer Fudd or Yosemite Sam.
Elmers seem generally to be well-meaning but clueless. They never figure out whether it's wabbit season or duck season. Democrats tend to be Elmer Fudds: Jimmy Carter and certainly Joe Biden are classic Elmers.
Sams tend to be Republicans (the classics would be Ronald Reagan, Bush Jr., and perhaps also Teddy Roosevelt, who predates the actual Yosemite Sam character); they know they have power and are keen to use it, but are inclined to rush in and run into trouble.
Unlike the UK jock/nerd relationship there is not always a precise alternation between Elmers and Sams.
At the moment, Ron DeSantis strikes me as a Sam, whereas Gavin Newsom and Pete Buttigieg would likely be an Elmer.
Kamala Harris could potentially be a Sam though, breaking the tradition of Democrat Elmers if she became President.
I believe Edinburgh is twinned with Kiev, so I’d go with that.
Coventry is our City of Culture but is not quoted. I'd be wary since it could easily go to somewhere not quoted and all the backers lose.
https://www.bbc.com/mediacentre/2022/eurovision-2023-bbc-host-city-process-production-plans
He enjoys, and it a natural at politics in a way that Rory couldn’t dream of.
He's never off bloody Fox.
It is equally noticeable that Fox seems to enjoy having him on, despite his habit of giving kickings to Republicans - particularly those on the Trump wing of the party.
A remarkable transformation. She is the real deal. She has the empathy and cleverness to win the next election for the Tories (barring a scandal)
Somehow, not by merit, purely by luck, the Tories have unearthed a star. She espouses rightwing beliefs with humanity and humour. Starmer might easily struggle against her - a younger and articulate woman. Fascinating
Biden enters the Always Be Closing phase of his first term
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/28/biden-enters-the-always-be-closing-phase-of-his-first-term-00048600
I’m not entirely convinced he’ll run again, but it looks slightly more possible than it did a couple of weeks ago.
NOM 45%
Con maj 45%
Lab maj 10%
That's my thinking
I reckon the Right could win every election in the West for the next 20 years, if the leaders on the Right aren't insane - thanks to the Woke insanity of the Western Left, and the threat from Fascist Russia, etc
Only a non-Woke Left can prosper. That is not Starmer; he is Woke but tries to hide it
55% Tory maj
40% NOM
5% Labour maj
On the evidence of recent days, Truss is clearly a better, more inspiring leader than Starmer. BUT she will face terrific headwinds. Otherwise I'd have her as 80% likely to be PM after 2024
All Beacon Research (A rated pollster per 538) for Fox News:
PA Senate: Fetterman (Dem) 47, Oz (Rep) 36
PA Governor: Shapiro (Dem) 50, Mastriano (Rep) 40
GA Senate: Warnock (Dem) 46, Walker (Rep) 42
GA Governor: Abrams (Dem) 44, Kemp (Rep) 47
Glasgow was the 2014 host of the same event.
Glad I missed last night's drunken ramblings
Though @IshmaelZ 's 'I have only had a whole bottle of wine; I am not dwunk" (summarising) was interesting. Alan Clark reappears before our eyes. We are observing an education process, which may be easy to take too far. Will be worth a watch.
Blindsided veterans erupt in fury after Senate Republicans suddenly tank PACT Act
The widely supported bipartisan measure looked to expand medical coverage for millions of combatants exposed to toxic burn pits during their service.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/blindsided-veterans-erupt-fury-senate-republicans-suddenly-tank-pact-a-rcna40516?cid=sm_npd_nn_tw_ma
… The PACT Act was named after Heath Robinson, a sergeant with the Ohio National Guard who was deployed to Kosovo and Iraq. He died in 2020 from lung cancer, which he blamed on burn pit exposure.
Open-air burn pits were common at U.S. military bases during the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Dangerous materials, from electronics and vehicles to human waste, were regularly doused in jet fuel and set ablaze, spewing toxic fumes and carcinogens into the air.
Many others have developed cancers, respiratory illnesses and other serious conditions as a direct result of exposure to toxins, veteran groups say.
President Joe Biden, who has championed the PACT Act, said he believes his late son Beau Biden’s brain cancer was linked to exposure to burn pits while he was deployed in Iraq in 2008…
Another legacy of a disastrous war.
https://twitter.com/ella_nilsen/status/1552806565249417216
She could get north of 65% though.
https://twitter.com/kenshirriff/status/1552723519087198208
Pretty easy for (eg) China or South Korea or several European countries to build an equivalent if they wanted to.
Not easy at all for Russia.
In his Rome speech on religious liberty, Justice Alito mocked "foreign leaders" who condemned his opinion overturning Roe v. Wade, including Boris Johnson, Macron, Trudeau, and ... Prince Harry.
Of Boris, Alito quipped: "He paid the price."
https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1552743092150800384
I just don't see anyone else like Buttigieg being able to overcome the political benefits of being an incumbent VP.
The last example of a president choosing not to run for re-election was Lyndon Johnson, and his VP Humphrey then became the nominee.
The Russians could *easily* produce this sort of system. The problem they would have is paying for it: these things are not cheap and take a long time to develop. The missiles are also really expensive; Russia may prefer less-exact but cheaper rockets they can build in massive amounts.
Incidentally, an acquaintance was responsible for a team building a 'cheap' GPS module for satellites (GPS can be used in low earth orbit, but there are complexities). To reduce cost, they used a GPS reciever chip off mobile phones that weighed a few grams. By the time several had been installed for redundancy and error checking, an independent power supply added, a radiation-hardened case, and control/monitoring circuitry, the module weighted a kilogram!
(*) I do wonder if they'll face problems keeping those fabs running under sanctions...
She’s refusing to do an interview with Andrew Neil, but she doesn’t need to. She’s pretty much got an unassailable lead now. She has little to gain from it.
Her big challenge is the cost of living crisis especially rising energy prices which will really have an impact and people are really getting worried about.
Most people don’t care about these work issues. It’s only a small minority on either side of the debate who do.
Her numbers are even lower than Biden’s, so if the President is going to stand down, he needs to do it in a way that doesn’t leave the Veep as the inevitable candidate, heading for the inevitable defeat against whoever the Republicans put up.
What I think happens, is that someone not particularly keen on the job, with Biden’s permission, challenges him to primaries, at which point the President stands aside for others to run the full primary process.
Last time they could keep Biden in his basement, as there was a pandemic happening. That won’t be the case in 2024.
24% understates by some way.
Laying GOP maj in the senate is the bet for the midterms I think.
Barber Boom incoming...