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The first post of PB’s 6th White House race – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited July 31 in General
imageThe first post of PB’s 6th White House race – politicalbetting.com

While all the PB focus for months has been on UK politics we have done very little on what is generally the biggest political betting event of all – the US Presidential election the next of which takes place in 2024. This will be the 6th White House race to be covered on PB.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 4,645
    FIRST in the race to the White house
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 19,449
    Slavery, schmavery.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,034
    edited July 28
    Third, as in “Rishi Sunak is a third-rate TED speaker”.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 52,691
    Biden can't run and the men in grey suits behind the Dems, if they exist, should quietly make it known to him and his family.

    No way is he up to a brutal campaign never mind actually being POTUS for extra 4 years.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 24,250
    PITY AMERICA
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,680
    Betfair next prime minister
    1.16 Liz Truss 86%
    7.6 Rishi Sunak 13%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.15 Liz Truss 87%
    7.6 Rishi Sunak 13%
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 16,957
    Joe doesn't need to make an early announcement.

    He's just Biden his time.

    I'll get my dressing gown.

    Goodnight!
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,680
    Yes, Biden should probably be favourite but of course his age makes 2024 seem an awfully long way off.
  • MPartridgeMPartridge Posts: 117
    IshmaelZ said:

    Slavery, schmavery.

    Please don't trivialise slavery in such a way, it really plays down the British impact on it all...

    ;) just kidding of course, it was a thoughtful conversation all round in the previous post
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,808
    Chill out.
    It isn't THAT important. Good night xx.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 19,449

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.16 Liz Truss 86%
    7.6 Rishi Sunak 13%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.15 Liz Truss 87%
    7.6 Rishi Sunak 13%

    It's over.

    Cannot believe how easily Sunak could have pushed Truss out and be up against, and annihilating, PM.
  • MPartridgeMPartridge Posts: 117
    There is no way Joe Biden is running, but if he admits now that he isn't he becomes a lame duck essentially, he will hold fire on his dropping out until late 2023
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,680
    edited July 28
    OT Russia's at it again.

    Apple network traffic takes mysterious detour through Russia
    Land of Putin capable of attacking routes in cyberspace as well as real world

    Apple's internet traffic took an unwelcome detour through Russian networking equipment for about twelve hours between July 26 and July 27.

    https://www.theregister.com/2022/07/27/apple_networking_traffic_russia_bgp/
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,405
    I agree about Biden - I think he'll run if he can, and the Democrats will fall in behind him in the end. Not convinced by Buttigieg - like Rory Stewart, he appeals to people who like civilised discourse, but US politics in particular is not fertile territory for that approach.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,062
    edited July 28
    Remember there is definitely no recession in the US......Joe Biden has reassured everybody that is the case, despite all those alternative facts about negative growth for the first 6 months of the year.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,697
    Redfield & Wilton Strategies; fieldwork 27 July; 1,500

    Lab 41% (+1)
    Con 33% (-1)
    LD 11% (-1)
    Grn 5% (nc)
    SNP 4% (nc)
    Ref 4% (+1)
    oth 2% (nc)
  • MPartridgeMPartridge Posts: 117

    I agree about Biden - I think he'll run if he can, and the Democrats will fall in behind him in the end. Not convinced by Buttigieg - like Rory Stewart, he appeals to people who like civilised discourse, but US politics in particular is not fertile territory for that approach.

    I really doubt it, age is clearly catching up with him already, he should still be in the relative "Honeymoon" period, as he has only been president for 18 months, i think those behind the scenes in the Democratic Party will make sure he doesn't run
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 478
    FWIW, I agree with our gracious host on the odds.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 41,258
    I was just checking what Dominic Cummings had said previously about Truss and found this from February when he was agitating to get rid of Johnson: "tax rise = disaster... scrap 🛒 - it's obvious both Truss & Sunak will tell MPs theyll ditch it day1 of contest".

    https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1491387402136715268
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 14,617
    I think he wants to run.
    It’s the only explanation I can think of for his risible recent face list which left him unable to blink.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,085

    Biden can't run and the men in grey suits behind the Dems, if they exist, should quietly make it known to him and his family.

    No way is he up to a brutal campaign never mind actually being POTUS for extra 4 years.

    The problem is that Biden may still be the best chance of stopping Trump again, which would make it almost his duty to run.

    It seems amazing to me that, after all the things that Trump did, and that the Republicans in Congress colluded with, that the Republicans even still have a chance at all. In any sort of sane politics they'd be looking at decades of rehabilitating their reputation.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,697

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.16 Liz Truss 86%
    7.6 Rishi Sunak 13%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.15 Liz Truss 87%
    7.6 Rishi Sunak 13%

    Truss getting over 70%, currently 14.5, must be value?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 101,102
    @Nigel_Farage
    ·
    1h
    The Commonwealth Games opening ceremony is so left-wing!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 101,102
    edited July 28
    Biden's Transport Secretary Buttigieg is a good bet, he already has taken the lead over Biden and Harris in early New Hampshire polls. Plus don't forget he already won the Iowa caucus in 2020
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3574672-buttigieg-edges-out-biden-among-democrats-in-new-hampshire-poll/
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,697
    HYUFD said:

    @Nigel_Farage
    ·
    1h
    The Commonwealth Games opening ceremony is so left-wing!

    Not enough jackboots for Nigel.
  • drunkkkkkkkkk
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 101,102
    edited July 28

    I agree about Biden - I think he'll run if he can, and the Democrats will fall in behind him in the end. Not convinced by Buttigieg - like Rory Stewart, he appeals to people who like civilised discourse, but US politics in particular is not fertile territory for that approach.

    Buttigieg approval rating +10%, Biden -6%, Harris -12%.

    Biden could well be the Macron to Biden's Hollande and Trump's Sarkozy
    https://theweek.com/pete-buttigieg/1007477/pete-buttigieg-is-the-most-favored-member-of-bidens-cabinet-poll-finds
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 19,449

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.16 Liz Truss 86%
    7.6 Rishi Sunak 13%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.15 Liz Truss 87%
    7.6 Rishi Sunak 13%

    Truss getting over 70%, currently 14.5, must be value?
    It was. 8 now.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 478
    FPT: The autobiography of Franics Bok, "Escape From Slavery" is definitely worth reading, for anyone concerned with modern slavery. And I am glad that he was able to find a refuge here in the United States. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francis_Bok

    The book is quite readable, and has, suprisingly, many funny stories, like the time Bok, a Dinka, encountered snow in North Dakota -- on his bicycle.

    (Incidentally, I think his story was one of the reasons that South Sudan gained independence, and I wish we had been able to do more for that troubled country since independence. But neither Obama nor Trump were much interested in that difficult problem.)
  • MPartridgeMPartridge Posts: 117
    The best thing for Biden is that if Trumps runs.

    If he runs he can use the argument "I am the one who can beat Trumps"

    If he doesn't Biden is toast
  • drink out mr
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 19,449

    drunkkkkkkkkk

    Whereas I am not. But might as well be for all the credit I get.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,697
    Sunday, Wembley, Final

    England 2.54
    Germany 3.09
    Draw 3.3
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 4,645
    HYUFD said:

    @Nigel_Farage
    ·
    1h
    The Commonwealth Games opening ceremony is so left-wing!

    not left wing just a bit arrogantly woke and rude to other guest countries
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,521
    IshmaelZ said:

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.16 Liz Truss 86%
    7.6 Rishi Sunak 13%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.15 Liz Truss 87%
    7.6 Rishi Sunak 13%

    Truss getting over 70%, currently 14.5, must be value?
    It was. 8 now.
    15 on Smarkets still
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 478
    Francis Bok, of course. (I can spell, I'm just not a very good typist.) His full name is: Francis Piol Bol Bok.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 19,449
    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.16 Liz Truss 86%
    7.6 Rishi Sunak 13%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.15 Liz Truss 87%
    7.6 Rishi Sunak 13%

    Truss getting over 70%, currently 14.5, must be value?
    It was. 8 now.
    15 on Smarkets still
    Thank you
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,713
    HYUFD said:

    @Nigel_Farage
    ·
    1h
    The Commonwealth Games opening ceremony is so left-wing!

    Has he forgotten London 2012? LOL.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 4,645

    Sunday, Wembley, Final

    England 2.54
    Germany 3.09
    Draw 3.3

    always oppose hype so woudl think (Without knowing womens football at all ) that Germany is a bit of value - perhaps wait though so the patriotic money comes on first on England
  • MPartridgeMPartridge Posts: 117

    Sunday, Wembley, Final

    England 2.54
    Germany 3.09
    Draw 3.3

    always oppose hype so woudl think (Without knowing womens football at all ) that Germany is a bit of value - perhaps wait though so the patriotic money comes on first on England
    Germany winning on penalties, it's written in the stars
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,395
    "Berlin monuments fall dark to save energy
    The city of Berlin started switching off spotlights illuminating its historic monuments as part of a national effort to save energy in the face of Russian gas shortages."

    https://www.thelocal.de/20220728/berlin-monuments-fall-dark-to-save-energy/
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 19,449

    Sunday, Wembley, Final

    England 2.54
    Germany 3.09
    Draw 3.3

    Lay England. That's all sentiment.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 101,102
    HYUFD said:

    I agree about Biden - I think he'll run if he can, and the Democrats will fall in behind him in the end. Not convinced by Buttigieg - like Rory Stewart, he appeals to people who like civilised discourse, but US politics in particular is not fertile territory for that approach.

    Buttigieg approval rating +10%, Biden -6%, Harris -12%.

    Biden could well be the Macron to Biden's Hollande and Trump's Sarkozy
    https://theweek.com/pete-buttigieg/1007477/pete-buttigieg-is-the-most-favored-member-of-bidens-cabinet-poll-finds
    Sorry, should have been 'Buttigieg could well be the Macron to Biden's Hollande and Trump's Sarkozy'
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 4,187
    edited July 28
    The other by election tonight is a surprisingly easy Tory hold, i expected a much closer race


    BY-ELECTION RESULT

    Lexden and Braiswick, Colchester Borough Council

    Con: 1372
    Lib Dem: 621
    Lab: 161

    Conservative HOLD

    https://t.co/csJiwPSR9C
  • Get some booze in have some shits easssdssuuu shot!
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,697

    Sunday, Wembley, Final

    England 2.54
    Germany 3.09
    Draw 3.3

    always oppose hype so woudl think (Without knowing womens football at all ) that Germany is a bit of value - perhaps wait though so the patriotic money comes on first on England
    Nearly always a wise strategy.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,697
    Which city will host Eurovision Song Contest 2023?

    Glasgow 2.2
    Manchester 5.6
    London 9
    Birmingham 13
    Liverpool 18
    Bradford 21
    Cardiff 21
    Aberdeen 26
    Belfast 26
    Leeds 26
    Sheffield 29
    Dundee 34
    Newcastle 34
    Brighton 41
    Edinburgh 41
    Bristol 51
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,680

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.16 Liz Truss 86%
    7.6 Rishi Sunak 13%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.15 Liz Truss 87%
    7.6 Rishi Sunak 13%

    Truss getting over 70%, currently 14.5, must be value?
    Truss over 70 per cent is only 8 on Betfair in a very thin market: £11 at 8 then £20 at 6 and £4 at 2. You could get 21 a week ago.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 19,449

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.16 Liz Truss 86%
    7.6 Rishi Sunak 13%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.15 Liz Truss 87%
    7.6 Rishi Sunak 13%

    Truss getting over 70%, currently 14.5, must be value?
    Truss over 70 per cent is only 8 on Betfair in a very thin market: £11 at 8 then £20 at 6 and £4 at 2. You could get 21 a week ago.
    As per Foxy still 14ish on smarkets.com
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,680
    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.16 Liz Truss 86%
    7.6 Rishi Sunak 13%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.15 Liz Truss 87%
    7.6 Rishi Sunak 13%

    Truss getting over 70%, currently 14.5, must be value?
    It was. 8 now.
    15 on Smarkets still
    For £2 if I'm reading it right.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,680
    IshmaelZ said:

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.16 Liz Truss 86%
    7.6 Rishi Sunak 13%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.15 Liz Truss 87%
    7.6 Rishi Sunak 13%

    Truss getting over 70%, currently 14.5, must be value?
    Truss over 70 per cent is only 8 on Betfair in a very thin market: £11 at 8 then £20 at 6 and £4 at 2. You could get 21 a week ago.
    As per Foxy still 14ish on smarkets.com
    An even thinner market than Betfair if I'm reading it right, although I've not bothered to open an account there so might not be.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 4,510
    Yet another Oxford PM... oh wait.
  • LDLFLDLF Posts: 85
    It has often been observed that UK Prime Ministers tend to alternate between Jocks and Nerds (or, as David Starkey put it, between Bookies and Bishops).

    US Presidents have their own version; to me, they are usually either Elmer Fudd or Yosemite Sam.

    Elmers seem generally to be well-meaning but clueless. They never figure out whether it's wabbit season or duck season. Democrats tend to be Elmer Fudds: Jimmy Carter and certainly Joe Biden are classic Elmers.

    Sams tend to be Republicans (the classics would be Ronald Reagan, Bush Jr., and perhaps also Teddy Roosevelt, who predates the actual Yosemite Sam character); they know they have power and are keen to use it, but are inclined to rush in and run into trouble.

    Unlike the UK jock/nerd relationship there is not always a precise alternation between Elmers and Sams.

    At the moment, Ron DeSantis strikes me as a Sam, whereas Gavin Newsom and Pete Buttigieg would likely be an Elmer.
    Kamala Harris could potentially be a Sam though, breaking the tradition of Democrat Elmers if she became President.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 19,449

    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.16 Liz Truss 86%
    7.6 Rishi Sunak 13%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.15 Liz Truss 87%
    7.6 Rishi Sunak 13%

    Truss getting over 70%, currently 14.5, must be value?
    It was. 8 now.
    15 on Smarkets still
    For £2 if I'm reading it right.
    I had a tenner 10 minutes ago and I think there was more. Gotta be quick.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 14,617

    Which city will host Eurovision Song Contest 2023?

    Glasgow 2.2
    Manchester 5.6
    London 9
    Birmingham 13
    Liverpool 18
    Bradford 21
    Cardiff 21
    Aberdeen 26
    Belfast 26
    Leeds 26
    Sheffield 29
    Dundee 34
    Newcastle 34
    Brighton 41
    Edinburgh 41
    Bristol 51

    Why is Glasgow so high?
    I believe Edinburgh is twinned with Kiev, so I’d go with that.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,680

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.16 Liz Truss 86%
    7.6 Rishi Sunak 13%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.15 Liz Truss 87%
    7.6 Rishi Sunak 13%

    Truss getting over 70%, currently 14.5, must be value?
    You could probably back all the Truss bands over 50 per cent and get a better price than on the win book, although as previously noted, it is a very thin market.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,062
    Trump claims ‘nobody’s got to the bottom of 9/11’
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,680

    Which city will host Eurovision Song Contest 2023?

    Glasgow 2.2
    Manchester 5.6
    London 9
    Birmingham 13
    Liverpool 18
    Bradford 21
    Cardiff 21
    Aberdeen 26
    Belfast 26
    Leeds 26
    Sheffield 29
    Dundee 34
    Newcastle 34
    Brighton 41
    Edinburgh 41
    Bristol 51

    Why is Glasgow so high?
    I believe Edinburgh is twinned with Kiev, so I’d go with that.
    Makes sense.

    Coventry is our City of Culture but is not quoted. I'd be wary since it could easily go to somewhere not quoted and all the backers lose.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,680

    Which city will host Eurovision Song Contest 2023?

    Glasgow 2.2
    Manchester 5.6
    London 9
    Birmingham 13
    Liverpool 18
    Bradford 21
    Cardiff 21
    Aberdeen 26
    Belfast 26
    Leeds 26
    Sheffield 29
    Dundee 34
    Newcastle 34
    Brighton 41
    Edinburgh 41
    Bristol 51

    Why is Glasgow so high?
    I believe Edinburgh is twinned with Kiev, so I’d go with that.
    Makes sense.

    Coventry is our City of Culture but is not quoted. I'd be wary since it could easily go to somewhere not quoted and all the backers lose.
    the BBC is pleased to announce that the bidding process to select the Host City for the Song Contest will begin this week, which the BBC will manage alongside the EBU. Relevant information will be issued shortly and we expect the bidding process to be complete by Autumn.
    https://www.bbc.com/mediacentre/2022/eurovision-2023-bbc-host-city-process-production-plans
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,398

    I agree about Biden - I think he'll run if he can, and the Democrats will fall in behind him in the end. Not convinced by Buttigieg - like Rory Stewart, he appeals to people who like civilised discourse, but US politics in particular is not fertile territory for that approach.

    Have you watched him debate on Republican opponents on Fox, Nick ?
    He enjoys, and it a natural at politics in a way that Rory couldn’t dream of.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,398

    Trump claims ‘nobody’s got to the bottom of 9/11’

    He’s aiming to reach depths as yet unplumbed ?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 46,350
    Nigelb said:

    I agree about Biden - I think he'll run if he can, and the Democrats will fall in behind him in the end. Not convinced by Buttigieg - like Rory Stewart, he appeals to people who like civilised discourse, but US politics in particular is not fertile territory for that approach.

    Have you watched him debate on Republican opponents on Fox, Nick ?
    He enjoys, and it a natural at politics in a way that Rory couldn’t dream of.
    Quite.

    He's never off bloody Fox.

    It is equally noticeable that Fox seems to enjoy having him on, despite his habit of giving kickings to Republicans - particularly those on the Trump wing of the party.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,680

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.16 Liz Truss 86%
    7.6 Rishi Sunak 13%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.15 Liz Truss 87%
    7.6 Rishi Sunak 13%

    Truss getting over 70%, currently 14.5, must be value?
    You could probably back all the Truss bands over 50 per cent and get a better price than on the win book, although as previously noted, it is a very thin market.
    On closer examination, I don't think you could. Being a thin market there is a huge overround to overcome.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 24,250
    I just watched Truss do the Q&A at the hustings

    A remarkable transformation. She is the real deal. She has the empathy and cleverness to win the next election for the Tories (barring a scandal)

    Somehow, not by merit, purely by luck, the Tories have unearthed a star. She espouses rightwing beliefs with humanity and humour. Starmer might easily struggle against her - a younger and articulate woman. Fascinating
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 46,350
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    I agree about Biden - I think he'll run if he can, and the Democrats will fall in behind him in the end. Not convinced by Buttigieg - like Rory Stewart, he appeals to people who like civilised discourse, but US politics in particular is not fertile territory for that approach.

    Have you watched him debate on Republican opponents on Fox, Nick ?
    He enjoys, and it a natural at politics in a way that Rory couldn’t dream of.
    Quite.

    He's never off bloody Fox.

    It is equally noticeable that Fox seems to enjoy having him on, despite his habit of giving kickings to Republicans - particularly those on the Trump wing of the party.
    This is him just two weeks ago: https://youtu.be/htCV-lCbI6E
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,395
    I'm not sure Biden will stand again. He's going to be 80 years old in a few months time.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,398
    All of a sudden, Biden seems to be catching a break.

    Biden enters the Always Be Closing phase of his first term
    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/28/biden-enters-the-always-be-closing-phase-of-his-first-term-00048600

    I’m not entirely convinced he’ll run again, but it looks slightly more possible than it did a couple of weeks ago.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 24,250
    I reckon Truss is going to win a small majority. Bet accordingly
  • Leon said:

    I reckon Truss is going to win a small majority. Bet accordingly

    Thanks, I’ve just lumped on Starmer as PM after next election
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,395
    Leon said:

    I reckon Truss is going to win a small majority. Bet accordingly

    The other day I said the odds for the next election should be something like this

    NOM 45%
    Con maj 45%
    Lab maj 10%
  • LeonLeon Posts: 24,250

    Leon said:

    I reckon Truss is going to win a small majority. Bet accordingly

    Thanks, I’ve just lumped on Starmer as PM after next election
    Truss is plausible, and everybody hates Woke Shit

    That's my thinking

    I reckon the Right could win every election in the West for the next 20 years, if the leaders on the Right aren't insane - thanks to the Woke insanity of the Western Left, and the threat from Fascist Russia, etc

    Only a non-Woke Left can prosper. That is not Starmer; he is Woke but tries to hide it
  • LeonLeon Posts: 24,250
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    I reckon Truss is going to win a small majority. Bet accordingly

    The other day I said the odds for the next election should be something like this

    NOM 45%
    Con maj 45%
    Lab maj 10%
    With the elevation of the suddenly papabile Truss (barring scandal!), I'd say:

    55% Tory maj
    40% NOM
    5% Labour maj

    On the evidence of recent days, Truss is clearly a better, more inspiring leader than Starmer. BUT she will face terrific headwinds. Otherwise I'd have her as 80% likely to be PM after 2024
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 589
    edited July 29

    Which city will host Eurovision Song Contest 2023?

    Glasgow 2.2
    Manchester 5.6
    London 9
    Birmingham 13
    Liverpool 18
    Bradford 21
    Cardiff 21
    Aberdeen 26
    Belfast 26
    Leeds 26
    Sheffield 29
    Dundee 34
    Newcastle 34
    Brighton 41
    Edinburgh 41
    Bristol 51

    Why is Glasgow so high?
    I believe Edinburgh is twinned with Kiev, so I’d go with that.
    I think its because the Netflix Eurovision film with Will Ferrell was filmed at the Hydro Arena, although it was set in Edinburgh,
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,607
    More very strong polls just out for the Democrats.

    All Beacon Research (A rated pollster per 538) for Fox News:

    PA Senate: Fetterman (Dem) 47, Oz (Rep) 36

    PA Governor: Shapiro (Dem) 50, Mastriano (Rep) 40

    GA Senate: Warnock (Dem) 46, Walker (Rep) 42

    GA Governor: Abrams (Dem) 44, Kemp (Rep) 47
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,697
    Nadine Dorries tells BBC News: “We haven’t had a sporting event like this in the UK since the 2012 Olympics” as she welcomes the opening of the Commonwealth Games in Birmingham.

    Glasgow was the 2014 host of the same event.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 46,350
    MikeL said:

    More very strong polls just out for the Democrats.

    All Beacon Research (A rated pollster per 538) for Fox News:

    PA Senate: Fetterman (Dem) 47, Oz (Rep) 36

    PA Governor: Shapiro (Dem) 50, Mastriano (Rep) 40

    GA Senate: Warnock (Dem) 46, Walker (Rep) 42

    GA Governor: Abrams (Dem) 44, Kemp (Rep) 47

    Oz's numbers are diabolical.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 14,440
    edited July 29
    Morning all.

    Glad I missed last night's drunken ramblings :smile: .

    Though @IshmaelZ 's 'I have only had a whole bottle of wine; I am not dwunk" (summarising) was interesting. Alan Clark reappears before our eyes.
    Andy_JS said:

    "Berlin monuments fall dark to save energy
    The city of Berlin started switching off spotlights illuminating its historic monuments as part of a national effort to save energy in the face of Russian gas shortages."

    https://www.thelocal.de/20220728/berlin-monuments-fall-dark-to-save-energy/

    We are observing an education process, which may be easy to take too far. Will be worth a watch.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,680
    Scott_xP said:

    Nadine Dorries tells BBC News: “We haven’t had a sporting event like this in the UK since the 2012 Olympics” as she welcomes the opening of the Commonwealth Games in Birmingham.

    Glasgow was the 2014 host of the same event.

    We'll miss her when she's gone.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,248
    Scott_xP said:

    Nadine Dorries tells BBC News: “We haven’t had a sporting event like this in the UK since the 2012 Olympics” as she welcomes the opening of the Commonwealth Games in Birmingham.

    Glasgow was the 2014 host of the same event.

    Nadine working hard against the Tories in Scotland
  • MattWMattW Posts: 14,440

    Scott_xP said:

    Nadine Dorries tells BBC News: “We haven’t had a sporting event like this in the UK since the 2012 Olympics” as she welcomes the opening of the Commonwealth Games in Birmingham.

    Glasgow was the 2014 host of the same event.

    Nadine working hard against the Tories in Scotland
    Will she be back in the Cabinet? Minister for Rockall beckons.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,398
    Not seeing those Republican efforts to win back the military vote.

    Blindsided veterans erupt in fury after Senate Republicans suddenly tank PACT Act
    The widely supported bipartisan measure looked to expand medical coverage for millions of combatants exposed to toxic burn pits during their service.
    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/blindsided-veterans-erupt-fury-senate-republicans-suddenly-tank-pact-a-rcna40516?cid=sm_npd_nn_tw_ma
    … The PACT Act was named after Heath Robinson, a sergeant with the Ohio National Guard who was deployed to Kosovo and Iraq. He died in 2020 from lung cancer, which he blamed on burn pit exposure.

    Open-air burn pits were common at U.S. military bases during the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Dangerous materials, from electronics and vehicles to human waste, were regularly doused in jet fuel and set ablaze, spewing toxic fumes and carcinogens into the air.

    Many others have developed cancers, respiratory illnesses and other serious conditions as a direct result of exposure to toxins, veteran groups say.

    President Joe Biden, who has championed the PACT Act, said he believes his late son Beau Biden’s brain cancer was linked to exposure to burn pits while he was deployed in Iraq in 2008…


    Another legacy of a disastrous war.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,398
    Early Rhodium analysis of Manchin/Schumer climate bill is out: IRA can cut US net greenhouse gas emissions down to 31% to 44% below 2005 levels by 2030 compared to 24% to 35% under current policy, @rhodium_group finds.
    https://twitter.com/ella_nilsen/status/1552806565249417216
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,146

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.16 Liz Truss 86%
    7.6 Rishi Sunak 13%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.15 Liz Truss 87%
    7.6 Rishi Sunak 13%

    Truss getting over 70%, currently 14.5, must be value?
    I took a few quid at 15 but don't expect to collect.

    She could get north of 65% though.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,398
    Interesting thread on the technical details of HIMARS.
    https://twitter.com/kenshirriff/status/1552723519087198208

    Pretty easy for (eg) China or South Korea or several European countries to build an equivalent if they wanted to.
    Not easy at all for Russia.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,398
    Just a reminder that this is supposed to be a judge, not a politician.

    In his Rome speech on religious liberty, Justice Alito mocked "foreign leaders" who condemned his opinion overturning Roe v. Wade, including Boris Johnson, Macron, Trudeau, and ... Prince Harry.

    Of Boris, Alito quipped: "He paid the price."

    https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1552743092150800384
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 40,294
    Nigelb said:

    Interesting thread on the technical details of HIMARS.
    https://twitter.com/kenshirriff/status/1552723519087198208

    Pretty easy for (eg) China or South Korea or several European countries to build an equivalent if they wanted to.
    Not easy at all for Russia.

    That’s very cool. It shows well the technical complexity of modern military equipment, and illustrates why the training of the Ukranians on this technology took time. Awesome pieces of kit though, the HIMARS and MLRS. Literally game-changing in this conflict, as the defenders now have offensive capability more than the enemy, and the key range advantage.
  • vikvik Posts: 157
    I think if Biden doesn't run, then Harris will almost certainly seek the nomination and she would then be the prohibitive favourite for the Dem nomination.

    I just don't see anyone else like Buttigieg being able to overcome the political benefits of being an incumbent VP.

    The last example of a president choosing not to run for re-election was Lyndon Johnson, and his VP Humphrey then became the nominee.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,795
    Nigelb said:

    Interesting thread on the technical details of HIMARS.
    https://twitter.com/kenshirriff/status/1552723519087198208

    Pretty easy for (eg) China or South Korea or several European countries to build an equivalent if they wanted to.
    Not easy at all for Russia.

    That's fascinating thanks. Note that the processors mentioned are *really* old: it mentions a 90nm PPC processor; current Russian fabs can go down to 65nm (*) - which is perfectly fine for many applications.

    The Russians could *easily* produce this sort of system. The problem they would have is paying for it: these things are not cheap and take a long time to develop. The missiles are also really expensive; Russia may prefer less-exact but cheaper rockets they can build in massive amounts.

    Incidentally, an acquaintance was responsible for a team building a 'cheap' GPS module for satellites (GPS can be used in low earth orbit, but there are complexities). To reduce cost, they used a GPS reciever chip off mobile phones that weighed a few grams. By the time several had been installed for redundancy and error checking, an independent power supply added, a radiation-hardened case, and control/monitoring circuitry, the module weighted a kilogram!

    (*) I do wonder if they'll face problems keeping those fabs running under sanctions...
  • TazTaz Posts: 5,426
    Leon said:

    I just watched Truss do the Q&A at the hustings

    A remarkable transformation. She is the real deal. She has the empathy and cleverness to win the next election for the Tories (barring a scandal)

    Somehow, not by merit, purely by luck, the Tories have unearthed a star. She espouses rightwing beliefs with humanity and humour. Starmer might easily struggle against her - a younger and articulate woman. Fascinating

    She seems to have really grown into this as it has gone on.

    She’s refusing to do an interview with Andrew Neil, but she doesn’t need to. She’s pretty much got an unassailable lead now. She has little to gain from it.

    Her big challenge is the cost of living crisis especially rising energy prices which will really have an impact and people are really getting worried about.
  • TazTaz Posts: 5,426
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I reckon Truss is going to win a small majority. Bet accordingly

    Thanks, I’ve just lumped on Starmer as PM after next election
    Truss is plausible, and everybody hates Woke Shit

    That's my thinking

    I reckon the Right could win every election in the West for the next 20 years, if the leaders on the Right aren't insane - thanks to the Woke insanity of the Western Left, and the threat from Fascist Russia, etc

    Only a non-Woke Left can prosper. That is not Starmer; he is Woke but tries to hide it
    Woke issues will take a backseat over the impending cost of living crisis caused by rising energy bills this coming winter. Especially if it’s a cold one.

    Most people don’t care about these work issues. It’s only a small minority on either side of the debate who do.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,414
    The interesting question about Truss is what, if anything, she actually believes in. She has adopted convictions throughout her career to match the prevailing political wind and following the leader at that time. If she becomes leader , who will she follow? Whose convictions will she adopt? That’s the big unknown with Truss.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,478

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.16 Liz Truss 86%
    7.6 Rishi Sunak 13%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.15 Liz Truss 87%
    7.6 Rishi Sunak 13%

    Truss getting over 70%, currently 14.5, must be value?
    Thanks for flagging. I'm on at 12.5, and have also backed to cover over 65%. Good bet I think.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,040
    Jonathan said:

    The interesting question about Truss is what, if anything, she actually believes in. She has adopted convictions throughout her career to match the prevailing political wind and following the leader at that time. If she becomes leader , who will she follow? Whose convictions will she adopt? That’s the big unknown with Truss.

    Indeed, and if she has some ability - and no-one gets to the top without ability of some kind, the problem with the clown being that his was entirely self-serving if not mendacious - there is clearly potential to surprise on the upside. The issue with her is that she has kept her ability well hidden earlier in her career, and has often risen by being chosen because she isn’t the other guy.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,680
    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I reckon Truss is going to win a small majority. Bet accordingly

    Thanks, I’ve just lumped on Starmer as PM after next election
    Truss is plausible, and everybody hates Woke Shit

    That's my thinking

    I reckon the Right could win every election in the West for the next 20 years, if the leaders on the Right aren't insane - thanks to the Woke insanity of the Western Left, and the threat from Fascist Russia, etc

    Only a non-Woke Left can prosper. That is not Starmer; he is Woke but tries to hide it
    Woke issues will take a backseat over the impending cost of living crisis caused by rising energy bills this coming winter. Especially if it’s a cold one.

    Most people don’t care about these work issues. It’s only a small minority on either side of the debate who do.
    One cannot help but suspect the CCHQ campaign team will have clipped last night's question about schools secretly replacing girls toilets with unisex ones. You can't have the Prime Minister making that claim but you can have her answer it, and the question is enough to motivate whichever Facebook users the algorithms send it to.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,040
    vik said:

    I think if Biden doesn't run, then Harris will almost certainly seek the nomination and she would then be the prohibitive favourite for the Dem nomination.

    I just don't see anyone else like Buttigieg being able to overcome the political benefits of being an incumbent VP.

    The last example of a president choosing not to run for re-election was Lyndon Johnson, and his VP Humphrey then became the nominee.

    But up against Trump, she would sink without trace, and most of the Dems know that.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 40,294
    vik said:

    I think if Biden doesn't run, then Harris will almost certainly seek the nomination and she would then be the prohibitive favourite for the Dem nomination.

    I just don't see anyone else like Buttigieg being able to overcome the political benefits of being an incumbent VP.

    The last example of a president choosing not to run for re-election was Lyndon Johnson, and his VP Humphrey then became the nominee.

    Kamala Harris is the big problem the Democrats have right now.

    Her numbers are even lower than Biden’s, so if the President is going to stand down, he needs to do it in a way that doesn’t leave the Veep as the inevitable candidate, heading for the inevitable defeat against whoever the Republicans put up.

    What I think happens, is that someone not particularly keen on the job, with Biden’s permission, challenges him to primaries, at which point the President stands aside for others to run the full primary process.

    Last time they could keep Biden in his basement, as there was a pandemic happening. That won’t be the case in 2024.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,521
    Wallace backs Truss. Sunak looking friendless.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,279
    Thus is an amazing bet, I have around 300 at 2-1.
    24% understates by some way.
    Laying GOP maj in the senate is the bet for the midterms I think.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,697
    Sir Christopher Meyer, UK's former ambassador to the US, dies at 78 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-62343008
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,521
    rkrkrk said:

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.16 Liz Truss 86%
    7.6 Rishi Sunak 13%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.15 Liz Truss 87%
    7.6 Rishi Sunak 13%

    Truss getting over 70%, currently 14.5, must be value?
    Thanks for flagging. I'm on at 12.5, and have also backed to cover over 65%. Good bet I think.
    65% is more realistic, but it isn't going to be a close contest.

    Barber Boom incoming...
This discussion has been closed.