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The first post of PB’s 6th White House race – politicalbetting.com

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,584
    TOPPING said:

    Wowser. Just catching up on the hustings.

    Truss says she is a "keen ice skater".

    I think we all know that that means, don't we.

    Thin ice ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    What's the ceiling on Sunak's price? He's gone from 7.6 to 9 in a couple of hours (largely due to Wallace, it seems).

    Anyone who liked him at 2-1 must be really getting stuck in now he's 8-1.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,768
    Penddu2 said:

    Let me see if I understand things correctly.... There are credible stories circulating that say:
    - the Prime Minister is in the pay of the KGB
    - the next Prime Minister enjoys being tied up in S&M bondage games
    - the next monarch enjoys being buggered with a strap-on

    How can a Finnish Twitter rumour possibly make things worse???

    The next monarch is pegged by the Prime Minister following a payment made by the KGB watched by the next PM who is running it as a part of an S&M bondage session.

    That's one way it could be worse, without thinking too hard.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,544

    Nigelb said:

    Interesting thread on the technical details of HIMARS.
    https://twitter.com/kenshirriff/status/1552723519087198208

    Pretty easy for (eg) China or South Korea or several European countries to build an equivalent if they wanted to.
    Not easy at all for Russia.

    That's fascinating thanks. Note that the processors mentioned are *really* old: it mentions a 90nm PPC processor; current Russian fabs can go down to 65nm (*) - which is perfectly fine for many applications.

    The Russians could *easily* produce this sort of system. The problem they would have is paying for it: these things are not cheap and take a long time to develop. The missiles are also really expensive; Russia may prefer less-exact but cheaper rockets they can build in massive amounts.

    Incidentally, an acquaintance was responsible for a team building a 'cheap' GPS module for satellites (GPS can be used in low earth orbit, but there are complexities). To reduce cost, they used a GPS reciever chip off mobile phones that weighed a few grams. By the time several had been installed for redundancy and error checking, an independent power supply added, a radiation-hardened case, and control/monitoring circuitry, the module weighted a kilogram!

    (*) I do wonder if they'll face problems keeping those fabs running under sanctions...
    I did giggle at the description of 90nm processors as high performance. Mind you they were replacing (apparently) Z80s….

    Your acquaintance - Did they manage to find GPS receiver chips without the velocity limitation of did they mod them?
    I've no idea. Because of the field he works in, he can only ever give me the broadest of broad details: the stuff that is public. He's very careful (and wisely so). I bet there's a spec sheet on the module somewhere out there on the 'net...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Pulpstar, ironically, I did back him at 3. Then laid him again when his odds fell.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,584


    This goes some way to explaining Putin's Kiev gamble. And the recent turmoil in Ukraine's security service

    https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/ukraine-crisis-russia-saboteurs/
    ...The fall of Chornobyl, site of the world’s worst nuclear disaster, stands out as an anomaly in the five-month old war: a successful blitzkrieg operation in a conflict marked elsewhere by a brutal and halting advance by Russian troops and grinding resistance by Ukraine.

    Now a Reuters investigation has found that Russia’s success at Chornobyl was no accident, but part of a long-standing Kremlin operation to infiltrate the Ukrainian state with secret agents.

    Five people with knowledge of the Kremlin’s preparations said war planners around President Vladimir Putin believed that, aided by these agents, Russia would require only a small military force and a few days to force Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s administration to quit, flee or capitulate...
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,557
    edited July 2022

    OT PB's jet set might be interested in the Telegraph's scientifically-determined (awarding points for 36 criteria) list of the top 60 most beautiful countries. (£££)

    In other words they made up 36 numbers for each country, rather than just one. I often meet this thought in the economic and statistical modelling I do professionally - for some reason, making up dozens of numbers and aggregating them seems more robust and professional than just making up one number. Never understood why.

    FWIW I think Switzerland should definitely be in the Top 10.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    James_M said:

    Morning all. I went to the hustings last night. For a Burnley fan to venture to Elland Road was a big sacrifice on my part (especially after last season's ending), but thems the breaks as Boris would say.

    I went in marginally favouring Rishi and left more certain of that position, without my certainty levels being 100%. I do not though think the hustings will have changed a huge number of opinions, which isn't likely to be enough for Sunak.

    Both gave good performances. Undoubtedly Sunak is the more polished performer, whilst Truss has definitely improved over time. She worked the room better with local stories, although her intro video was just cuts of her launch video, whilst Rishi cleverly had local Yorkshire MPs on his video backing him.

    I am edging further to Sunak because ultimately on the economics I favour his greater focus on fiscal prudence. I also think about how someone can reach beyond the room to the country at large - a point @SouthamObserver has pertinently noted earlier. Sunak didn't always tell the room what they wanted to hear, and I felt that Liz Truss was doing that. It was as though she had a tick list of member demands and was working through them. Fancy a tax cut? Here you are. Want the new rail line? Go on then, have that too. It's appealing, but I am not convinced it is the right approach for a future PM to take.

    Ultimately, neither struck me as ideal candidates. Indeed across British politics we have a dearth of leaders who can confidently communicate a vision for the future that tackles the large structural challenges we face. I think both Sunak and Truss will be an upgrade on Boris in terms of seriousness. I think Truss will likely win the contest, although I noted that those I spoke to were genuinely undecided both going in and leaving the venue. There were references to heart and head decisions (heart for the tax cuts // head for the 'how do we pay for them?'), but overall I think Liz Truss will triumph unless something radical happens.

    Sunak out at 9 this morning.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Penddu2 said:

    Let me see if I understand things correctly.... There are credible stories circulating that say:
    - the Prime Minister is in the pay of the KGB
    - the next Prime Minister enjoys being tied up in S&M bondage games
    - the next monarch enjoys being buggered with a strap-on

    How can a Finnish Twitter rumour possibly make things worse???

    Well, of course, this time last year there were Twitter rumours that SKS was having an affair with ****.

    Damages were paid for defamation.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,037
    Pulpstar said:

    Truss - PM
    Clarke - Chancellor
    Wallace - Defence (Small chance of Foreign)

    Those are the three I'm very sure of, with the possible exception of Wallace to Foreign. If he goes to Foreign then he's likely to be next leader, staying at defence would indicate to me he doesn't want the top job - so though he'll be one of the likely early favourites along with Badenoch for Tory leader after next he should be opposed in the market if that's the case.

    Good analysis
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044

    HYUFD said:

    Completely disagreed with the thread header, Biden's approval ratings are atrocious - even worse than Trump's were*. The age factor is there too.

    For him to be next US President 3 factors must be true: He must decide to run, he must get the nomination, and he must win.

    1: Decide to run - Given the age and approval ratings this looks low to me. 40%
    2: Get the nomination - Candidates have run against incumbents (and defeated incumbents) before. Given the historically low approval ratings, a challenge is surely inevitable. 60%
    3: Wins the race - First time incumbents for a party almost inevitably win, Trump and Carter are the only exceptions. Biden has approval ratings worse than either of them. 33%

    40% * 60% * 33% = 8%

    Biden for me would be a lay at 24% odds, though of course I'd never personally lay at those odds, but if you back Biden then I think you're swelling what used to be called Shadsy's Christmas Bonus fund.


    * Personally I think this is ridiculous, Biden's clearly better than Trump, but that's by-the-by and I'm not a voter those answering the questions are.

    I think Biden's approval ratings are reasonably fair, given the debacle in Kabul, inflation and the recession. Trump's are artificially high because of the large number of core supporters who still support him after he attempted a coup and so would support him in all circumstances.

    The only caveat I have is: who else is the Democratic nominee?

    That's essentially why old-man Biden got the nomination in 2020, and I think it's a pretty big reason why his chances of being the nominee are higher than your 24%. I look at all the other potential candidates and all I see are people who most likely are going to lose to Trump like Clinton did.

    Now, if we get to 2024, and the Republican nominee somehow isn't Trump, then the Democrats will wish that their nominee isn't Biden, but as long as there's a chance Trump will be the nominee I think Biden stays as the best chance of defeating him a second time.
    Buttigieg already beats Biden and Harris in New Hampshire Democratic primary polls, that is unprecedented against an incumbent President. Certainly since Bobby Kennedy and LBJ pre 1968
    https://twitter.com/PhilipWegmann/status/1551967818123542528?s=20&t=3U3teZ-0FwQB5bLN9CYilw
    Do you know how Buttigieg does in polls against Trump? My impression is that Biden is still the strongest Democrat in those polls.

    If Trump declares he is running again in 2024, then that polling will become more important.
    Buttigieg big problem is black primary voters. No sign as far as I am aware that they have changed their minds about him. I know one shouldn't make sweeping generalisations about blocs of voters but last time he polled appalling with this key group in especially S Carolina.

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,940
    Fishing said:

    OT PB's jet set might be interested in the Telegraph's scientifically-determined (awarding points for 36 criteria) list of the top 60 most beautiful countries. (£££)

    In other words they made up 36 numbers for each country, rather than just one. I often meet this thought in the economic and statistical modelling I do professionally - for some reason, making up dozens of numbers and aggregating them seems more robust and professional than just making up one number. Never understood why.

    FWIW I think Switzerland should definitely be in the Top 10.
    Yes, even if some of the numbers (length of coastline, say) are objective, simply adding them up might still be nonsensical. What would adding a man's height to his salary tell us?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Penddu2 said:

    Let me see if I understand things correctly.... There are credible stories circulating that say:
    - the Prime Minister is in the pay of the KGB
    - the next Prime Minister enjoys being tied up in S&M bondage games
    - the next monarch enjoys being buggered with a strap-on

    How can a Finnish Twitter rumour possibly make things worse???

    Well, of course, this time last year there were Twitter rumours that SKS was having an affair with ****.

    Damages were paid for defamation.
    Starmer could probably do with an affair story he's so dull tbh.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    kjh said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I reckon Truss is going to win a small majority. Bet accordingly

    Thanks, I’ve just lumped on Starmer as PM after next election
    Truss is plausible, and everybody hates Woke Shit

    That's my thinking

    I reckon the Right could win every election in the West for the next 20 years, if the leaders on the Right aren't insane - thanks to the Woke insanity of the Western Left, and the threat from Fascist Russia, etc

    Only a non-Woke Left can prosper. That is not Starmer; he is Woke but tries to hide it
    Woke issues will take a backseat over the impending cost of living crisis caused by rising energy bills this coming winter. Especially if it’s a cold one.

    Most people don’t care about these work issues. It’s only a small minority on either side of the debate who do.
    Agree 100%. Woke is a significant subset of political correctness which is a subset of jobs worth. We have always had it, although it evolves over time. It is and always has existed in local authorities, government and large corporations. It isn't just a left wing thing, it is a case of not using common sense most of the time. It drives me mad when it affects me. The right might make it an issue but in the grand scheme of things it really isn't. It only seems to be Leon and Casino who really get wound up about it here.
    Pretty much. I used to work with a very, very Russian developer, who'd served in the Soviet military.

    On one company "sensitivity" course, he remarked that I was playing the part of the "teacher's pet" - providing the "right" answers.

    The whole thing reminded him of the dynamics in the political officers lectures, in the USSR days. People sat in them, pretended to be interested and then went back to their lives.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Unpopular said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Unpopular said:

    Oooh, I like the idea of hosting it in Edinburgh (not just for selfish reasons, either). Twinned with Kyiv, good bit of money spent in Scotland and the UKGov looks nice... Don't know that there's anywhere in Edinburgh that could host it though.

    It was held in the Usher Hall in 1972...
    Just a quick Google says Usher Hall can hold about 2000, whereas you're probably wanting closer to 10,000 if not more these days. It might be possible to repurpose Murrayfield (it'd have the attendees praying for sun)? But with the Hydro just down the road...
    Brighton having the same conversation - the Dome, which held it in 1974 can only hold 1,700 - so the Amex is being suggested.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,768
    edited July 2022

    James_M said:

    Morning all. I went to the hustings last night. For a Burnley fan to venture to Elland Road was a big sacrifice on my part (especially after last season's ending), but thems the breaks as Boris would say.

    I went in marginally favouring Rishi and left more certain of that position, without my certainty levels being 100%. I do not though think the hustings will have changed a huge number of opinions, which isn't likely to be enough for Sunak.

    Both gave good performances. Undoubtedly Sunak is the more polished performer, whilst Truss has definitely improved over time. She worked the room better with local stories, although her intro video was just cuts of her launch video, whilst Rishi cleverly had local Yorkshire MPs on his video backing him.

    I am edging further to Sunak because ultimately on the economics I favour his greater focus on fiscal prudence. I also think about how someone can reach beyond the room to the country at large - a point @SouthamObserver has pertinently noted earlier. Sunak didn't always tell the room what they wanted to hear, and I felt that Liz Truss was doing that. It was as though she had a tick list of member demands and was working through them. Fancy a tax cut? Here you are. Want the new rail line? Go on then, have that too. It's appealing, but I am not convinced it is the right approach for a future PM to take.

    Ultimately, neither struck me as ideal candidates. Indeed across British politics we have a dearth of leaders who can confidently communicate a vision for the future that tackles the large structural challenges we face. I think both Sunak and Truss will be an upgrade on Boris in terms of seriousness. I think Truss will likely win the contest, although I noted that those I spoke to were genuinely undecided both going in and leaving the venue. There were references to heart and head decisions (heart for the tax cuts // head for the 'how do we pay for them?'), but overall I think Liz Truss will triumph unless something radical happens.

    Sunak out at 9 this morning.
    Twenty past now and he's still not out...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    HYUFD said:

    Completely disagreed with the thread header, Biden's approval ratings are atrocious - even worse than Trump's were*. The age factor is there too.

    For him to be next US President 3 factors must be true: He must decide to run, he must get the nomination, and he must win.

    1: Decide to run - Given the age and approval ratings this looks low to me. 40%
    2: Get the nomination - Candidates have run against incumbents (and defeated incumbents) before. Given the historically low approval ratings, a challenge is surely inevitable. 60%
    3: Wins the race - First time incumbents for a party almost inevitably win, Trump and Carter are the only exceptions. Biden has approval ratings worse than either of them. 33%

    40% * 60% * 33% = 8%

    Biden for me would be a lay at 24% odds, though of course I'd never personally lay at those odds, but if you back Biden then I think you're swelling what used to be called Shadsy's Christmas Bonus fund.


    * Personally I think this is ridiculous, Biden's clearly better than Trump, but that's by-the-by and I'm not a voter those answering the questions are.

    I think Biden's approval ratings are reasonably fair, given the debacle in Kabul, inflation and the recession. Trump's are artificially high because of the large number of core supporters who still support him after he attempted a coup and so would support him in all circumstances.

    The only caveat I have is: who else is the Democratic nominee?

    That's essentially why old-man Biden got the nomination in 2020, and I think it's a pretty big reason why his chances of being the nominee are higher than your 24%. I look at all the other potential candidates and all I see are people who most likely are going to lose to Trump like Clinton did.

    Now, if we get to 2024, and the Republican nominee somehow isn't Trump, then the Democrats will wish that their nominee isn't Biden, but as long as there's a chance Trump will be the nominee I think Biden stays as the best chance of defeating him a second time.
    Buttigieg already beats Biden and Harris in New Hampshire Democratic primary polls, that is unprecedented against an incumbent President. Certainly since Bobby Kennedy and LBJ pre 1968
    https://twitter.com/PhilipWegmann/status/1551967818123542528?s=20&t=3U3teZ-0FwQB5bLN9CYilw
    Do you know how Buttigieg does in polls against Trump? My impression is that Biden is still the strongest Democrat in those polls.

    If Trump declares he is running again in 2024, then that polling will become more important.
    Buttigieg big problem is black primary voters. No sign as far as I am aware that they have changed their minds about him. I know one shouldn't make sweeping generalisations about blocs of voters but last time he polled appalling with this key group in especially S Carolina.

    That's a very good point. Buttigieg's numbers were brill right up to the point he hits the south.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,713
    edited July 2022

    HYUFD said:

    Completely disagreed with the thread header, Biden's approval ratings are atrocious - even worse than Trump's were*. The age factor is there too.

    For him to be next US President 3 factors must be true: He must decide to run, he must get the nomination, and he must win.

    1: Decide to run - Given the age and approval ratings this looks low to me. 40%
    2: Get the nomination - Candidates have run against incumbents (and defeated incumbents) before. Given the historically low approval ratings, a challenge is surely inevitable. 60%
    3: Wins the race - First time incumbents for a party almost inevitably win, Trump and Carter are the only exceptions. Biden has approval ratings worse than either of them. 33%

    40% * 60% * 33% = 8%

    Biden for me would be a lay at 24% odds, though of course I'd never personally lay at those odds, but if you back Biden then I think you're swelling what used to be called Shadsy's Christmas Bonus fund.


    * Personally I think this is ridiculous, Biden's clearly better than Trump, but that's by-the-by and I'm not a voter those answering the questions are.

    I think Biden's approval ratings are reasonably fair, given the debacle in Kabul, inflation and the recession. Trump's are artificially high because of the large number of core supporters who still support him after he attempted a coup and so would support him in all circumstances.

    The only caveat I have is: who else is the Democratic nominee?

    That's essentially why old-man Biden got the nomination in 2020, and I think it's a pretty big reason why his chances of being the nominee are higher than your 24%. I look at all the other potential candidates and all I see are people who most likely are going to lose to Trump like Clinton did.

    Now, if we get to 2024, and the Republican nominee somehow isn't Trump, then the Democrats will wish that their nominee isn't Biden, but as long as there's a chance Trump will be the nominee I think Biden stays as the best chance of defeating him a second time.
    Buttigieg already beats Biden and Harris in New Hampshire Democratic primary polls, that is unprecedented against an incumbent President. Certainly since Bobby Kennedy and LBJ pre 1968
    https://twitter.com/PhilipWegmann/status/1551967818123542528?s=20&t=3U3teZ-0FwQB5bLN9CYilw
    Do you know how Buttigieg does in polls against Trump? My impression is that Biden is still the strongest Democrat in those polls.

    If Trump declares he is running again in 2024, then that polling will become more important.
    Buttigieg has an approval rating of +10%, miles better than Biden on -6% and Harris on -12% and also far higher than Trump

    https://theweek.com/pete-buttigieg/1007477/pete-buttigieg-is-the-most-favored-member-of-bidens-cabinet-poll-finds
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,544

    kjh said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I reckon Truss is going to win a small majority. Bet accordingly

    Thanks, I’ve just lumped on Starmer as PM after next election
    Truss is plausible, and everybody hates Woke Shit

    That's my thinking

    I reckon the Right could win every election in the West for the next 20 years, if the leaders on the Right aren't insane - thanks to the Woke insanity of the Western Left, and the threat from Fascist Russia, etc

    Only a non-Woke Left can prosper. That is not Starmer; he is Woke but tries to hide it
    Woke issues will take a backseat over the impending cost of living crisis caused by rising energy bills this coming winter. Especially if it’s a cold one.

    Most people don’t care about these work issues. It’s only a small minority on either side of the debate who do.
    Agree 100%. Woke is a significant subset of political correctness which is a subset of jobs worth. We have always had it, although it evolves over time. It is and always has existed in local authorities, government and large corporations. It isn't just a left wing thing, it is a case of not using common sense most of the time. It drives me mad when it affects me. The right might make it an issue but in the grand scheme of things it really isn't. It only seems to be Leon and Casino who really get wound up about it here.
    Pretty much. I used to work with a very, very Russian developer, who'd served in the Soviet military.

    On one company "sensitivity" course, he remarked that I was playing the part of the "teacher's pet" - providing the "right" answers.

    The whole thing reminded him of the dynamics in the political officers lectures, in the USSR days. People sat in them, pretended to be interested and then went back to their lives.
    A bit like manual handling training, then... ;)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    Nigelb said:



    This goes some way to explaining Putin's Kiev gamble. And the recent turmoil in Ukraine's security service

    https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/ukraine-crisis-russia-saboteurs/
    ...The fall of Chornobyl, site of the world’s worst nuclear disaster, stands out as an anomaly in the five-month old war: a successful blitzkrieg operation in a conflict marked elsewhere by a brutal and halting advance by Russian troops and grinding resistance by Ukraine.

    Now a Reuters investigation has found that Russia’s success at Chornobyl was no accident, but part of a long-standing Kremlin operation to infiltrate the Ukrainian state with secret agents.

    Five people with knowledge of the Kremlin’s preparations said war planners around President Vladimir Putin believed that, aided by these agents, Russia would require only a small military force and a few days to force Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s administration to quit, flee or capitulate...

    Similar stuff has been repeated before - that lots of people were approached by the Russians, many went straight to the Ukrainian government, that they were advised by the Ukrainian government to play along etc.

    This was also a plot line in the TV series where Zelenskiy accidentally becomes president of Ukraine. Life imitates art.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,940

    Pulpstar said:

    Truss - PM
    Clarke - Chancellor
    Wallace - Defence (Small chance of Foreign)

    Those are the three I'm very sure of, with the possible exception of Wallace to Foreign. If he goes to Foreign then he's likely to be next leader, staying at defence would indicate to me he doesn't want the top job - so though he'll be one of the likely early favourites along with Badenoch for Tory leader after next he should be opposed in the market if that's the case.

    Good analysis
    Not really. First, Wallace covets Nato, not Number 10. Second, Wallace was already near favourite before ruling himself out just a couple of weeks ago: 3.35 on Betfair.
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 775
    kjh said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I reckon Truss is going to win a small majority. Bet accordingly

    Thanks, I’ve just lumped on Starmer as PM after next election
    Truss is plausible, and everybody hates Woke Shit

    That's my thinking

    I reckon the Right could win every election in the West for the next 20 years, if the leaders on the Right aren't insane - thanks to the Woke insanity of the Western Left, and the threat from Fascist Russia, etc

    Only a non-Woke Left can prosper. That is not Starmer; he is Woke but tries to hide it
    Woke issues will take a backseat over the impending cost of living crisis caused by rising energy bills this coming winter. Especially if it’s a cold one.

    Most people don’t care about these work issues. It’s only a small minority on either side of the debate who do.
    Agree 100%. Woke is a significant subset of political correctness which is a subset of jobs worth. We have always had it, although it evolves over time. It is and always has existed in local authorities, government and large corporations. It isn't just a left wing thing, it is a case of not using common sense most of the time. It drives me mad when it affects me. The right might make it an issue but in the grand scheme of things it really isn't. It only seems to be Leon and Casino who really get wound up about it here.
    I agree with this. My own personal theory is that a lot of it, that comes out of meetings particularly, is showing off how deeply someone has thought of an issue.

    To give a non-political example, I was in a fire warden meeting once. Our building hosts an outreach organisation that primarily runs sessions for school pupils. We were discussing interesting stuff about fire safety, people propping open fire doors, leaving stuff in hallways and such like. The topic turned to evacuation plans and routes of egress. All very sensible. Then someone mentioned that a child with poor mobility would be *gasp* venturing onto the second floor of the building. Well, we were off to the races then, as busybody after busybody around the table tried to outdo each other in thinking of the most ridiculous and improbable scenario and what we should do in each. In response to one such scenario the outreach people said 'In that case we would just carry the child,' to which another responded 'But some children don't like to be touched.' The building would be on fire to a degree that the personalised evacuation plan for that child would no longer be possible, I think between being carried and burning to death the child, and child's parents could probably get over it! That took us onto a discussion about whether we should change the fire assembly point for the children further away from the building. 'But what if the wind changes?' Etc etc. It was interesting to watch.

    It is good to think about things comprehensively but you can quickly lose sight of reality and as people begin to outcompete each other the process is then turbo charged. I think at one point someone wanted to forbid the girl in a wheelchair even coming into the building, which, while the sentiment came from a place of concern, would have been absurd and offensive.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,713

    HYUFD said:

    Completely disagreed with the thread header, Biden's approval ratings are atrocious - even worse than Trump's were*. The age factor is there too.

    For him to be next US President 3 factors must be true: He must decide to run, he must get the nomination, and he must win.

    1: Decide to run - Given the age and approval ratings this looks low to me. 40%
    2: Get the nomination - Candidates have run against incumbents (and defeated incumbents) before. Given the historically low approval ratings, a challenge is surely inevitable. 60%
    3: Wins the race - First time incumbents for a party almost inevitably win, Trump and Carter are the only exceptions. Biden has approval ratings worse than either of them. 33%

    40% * 60% * 33% = 8%

    Biden for me would be a lay at 24% odds, though of course I'd never personally lay at those odds, but if you back Biden then I think you're swelling what used to be called Shadsy's Christmas Bonus fund.


    * Personally I think this is ridiculous, Biden's clearly better than Trump, but that's by-the-by and I'm not a voter those answering the questions are.

    I think Biden's approval ratings are reasonably fair, given the debacle in Kabul, inflation and the recession. Trump's are artificially high because of the large number of core supporters who still support him after he attempted a coup and so would support him in all circumstances.

    The only caveat I have is: who else is the Democratic nominee?

    That's essentially why old-man Biden got the nomination in 2020, and I think it's a pretty big reason why his chances of being the nominee are higher than your 24%. I look at all the other potential candidates and all I see are people who most likely are going to lose to Trump like Clinton did.

    Now, if we get to 2024, and the Republican nominee somehow isn't Trump, then the Democrats will wish that their nominee isn't Biden, but as long as there's a chance Trump will be the nominee I think Biden stays as the best chance of defeating him a second time.
    Buttigieg already beats Biden and Harris in New Hampshire Democratic primary polls, that is unprecedented against an incumbent President. Certainly since Bobby Kennedy and LBJ pre 1968
    https://twitter.com/PhilipWegmann/status/1551967818123542528?s=20&t=3U3teZ-0FwQB5bLN9CYilw
    Do you know how Buttigieg does in polls against Trump? My impression is that Biden is still the strongest Democrat in those polls.

    If Trump declares he is running again in 2024, then that polling will become more important.
    Buttigieg big problem is black primary voters. No sign as far as I am aware that they have changed their minds about him. I know one shouldn't make sweeping generalisations about blocs of voters but last time he polled appalling with this key group in especially S Carolina.

    He won Iowa in 2020 and leads in New Hampshire polls, if he won both he almost certainly wins the nomination even if he lost the Southern black dominated primaries
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    Unpopular said:

    kjh said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I reckon Truss is going to win a small majority. Bet accordingly

    Thanks, I’ve just lumped on Starmer as PM after next election
    Truss is plausible, and everybody hates Woke Shit

    That's my thinking

    I reckon the Right could win every election in the West for the next 20 years, if the leaders on the Right aren't insane - thanks to the Woke insanity of the Western Left, and the threat from Fascist Russia, etc

    Only a non-Woke Left can prosper. That is not Starmer; he is Woke but tries to hide it
    Woke issues will take a backseat over the impending cost of living crisis caused by rising energy bills this coming winter. Especially if it’s a cold one.

    Most people don’t care about these work issues. It’s only a small minority on either side of the debate who do.
    Agree 100%. Woke is a significant subset of political correctness which is a subset of jobs worth. We have always had it, although it evolves over time. It is and always has existed in local authorities, government and large corporations. It isn't just a left wing thing, it is a case of not using common sense most of the time. It drives me mad when it affects me. The right might make it an issue but in the grand scheme of things it really isn't. It only seems to be Leon and Casino who really get wound up about it here.
    I agree with this. My own personal theory is that a lot of it, that comes out of meetings particularly, is showing off how deeply someone has thought of an issue.

    To give a non-political example, I was in a fire warden meeting once. Our building hosts an outreach organisation that primarily runs sessions for school pupils. We were discussing interesting stuff about fire safety, people propping open fire doors, leaving stuff in hallways and such like. The topic turned to evacuation plans and routes of egress. All very sensible. Then someone mentioned that a child with poor mobility would be *gasp* venturing onto the second floor of the building. Well, we were off to the races then, as busybody after busybody around the table tried to outdo each other in thinking of the most ridiculous and improbable scenario and what we should do in each. In response to one such scenario the outreach people said 'In that case we would just carry the child,' to which another responded 'But some children don't like to be touched.' The building would be on fire to a degree that the personalised evacuation plan for that child would no longer be possible, I think between being carried and burning to death the child, and child's parents could probably get over it! That took us onto a discussion about whether we should change the fire assembly point for the children further away from the building. 'But what if the wind changes?' Etc etc. It was interesting to watch.

    It is good to think about things comprehensively but you can quickly lose sight of reality and as people begin to outcompete each other the process is then turbo charged. I think at one point someone wanted to forbid the girl in a wheelchair even coming into the building, which, while the sentiment came from a place of concern, would have been absurd and offensive.
    I think between being carried and burning to death the child, and child's parents could probably get over it!

    {The Saudi Religious Police have entered the chat}
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 583

    Penddu2 said:

    Let me see if I understand things correctly.... There are credible stories circulating that say:
    - the Prime Minister is in the pay of the KGB
    - the next Prime Minister enjoys being tied up in S&M bondage games
    - the next monarch enjoys being buggered with a strap-on

    How can a Finnish Twitter rumour possibly make things worse???

    Define 'credible'
    Leon said so....
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    Unpopular said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Unpopular said:

    Oooh, I like the idea of hosting it in Edinburgh (not just for selfish reasons, either). Twinned with Kyiv, good bit of money spent in Scotland and the UKGov looks nice... Don't know that there's anywhere in Edinburgh that could host it though.

    It was held in the Usher Hall in 1972...
    Just a quick Google says Usher Hall can hold about 2000, whereas you're probably wanting closer to 10,000 if not more these days. It might be possible to repurpose Murrayfield (it'd have the attendees praying for sun)? But with the Hydro just down the road...
    Brighton having the same conversation - the Dome, which held it in 1974 can only hold 1,700 - so the Amex is being suggested.

    Eurovision nowadays requires a venue of a minimum size of 10,000 and a suitable number of hotel rooms.

    Now there are a number of places that meet the first requirement but very few have enough available hotel rooms - for instance Leeds First Direct Arena hosts 11,500 but hotels are a mare on a normal weeknight let alone were an event to be on..

    I suspect the sane options are Manchester, Birmingham, Glasgow and possibly Liverpool.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265
    James_M said:

    Morning all. I went to the hustings last night. For a Burnley fan to venture to Elland Road was a big sacrifice on my part (especially after last season's ending), but thems the breaks as Boris would say.

    I went in marginally favouring Rishi and left more certain of that position, without my certainty levels being 100%. I do not though think the hustings will have changed a huge number of opinions, which isn't likely to be enough for Sunak.

    Both gave good performances. Undoubtedly Sunak is the more polished performer, whilst Truss has definitely improved over time. She worked the room better with local stories, although her intro video was just cuts of her launch video, whilst Rishi cleverly had local Yorkshire MPs on his video backing him.

    I am edging further to Sunak because ultimately on the economics I favour his greater focus on fiscal prudence. I also think about how someone can reach beyond the room to the country at large - a point @SouthamObserver has pertinently noted earlier. Sunak didn't always tell the room what they wanted to hear, and I felt that Liz Truss was doing that. It was as though she had a tick list of member demands and was working through them. Fancy a tax cut? Here you are. Want the new rail line? Go on then, have that too. It's appealing, but I am not convinced it is the right approach for a future PM to take.

    Ultimately, neither struck me as ideal candidates. Indeed across British politics we have a dearth of leaders who can confidently communicate a vision for the future that tackles the large structural challenges we face. I think both Sunak and Truss will be an upgrade on Boris in terms of seriousness. I think Truss will likely win the contest, although I noted that those I spoke to were genuinely undecided both going in and leaving the venue. There were references to heart and head decisions (heart for the tax cuts // head for the 'how do we pay for them?'), but overall I think Liz Truss will triumph unless something radical happens.

    Interesting objective impression - thank you.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited July 2022
    UK heatwave: Weather forecasters report unprecedented trolling

    The BBC's team received hundreds of abusive tweets or emails

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-62323048

    That sounds terrible...Then you look at the examples...."get a grip", "1975/76"..."you are fear mongering". They are not even hurty words.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772

    Fishing said:

    OT PB's jet set might be interested in the Telegraph's scientifically-determined (awarding points for 36 criteria) list of the top 60 most beautiful countries. (£££)

    In other words they made up 36 numbers for each country, rather than just one. I often meet this thought in the economic and statistical modelling I do professionally - for some reason, making up dozens of numbers and aggregating them seems more robust and professional than just making up one number. Never understood why.

    FWIW I think Switzerland should definitely be in the Top 10.
    Yes, even if some of the numbers (length of coastline, say) are objective, simply adding them up might still be nonsensical. What would adding a man's height to his salary tell us?
    What would be more useful/interesting is working backwards from an objective measure of how popular a country is to visit (number of tourists, say), and then regressing that against other factors - cost, coastline length, castle density, sunshine hours, number of professional orchestras, Koppen climate classification, distance from London, etc, - and seeing which factors were most predictive of tourist numbers.

    Then you might find countries which are anomalous and don't fit the model.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,037

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.16 Liz Truss 86%
    7.6 Rishi Sunak 13%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.15 Liz Truss 87%
    7.6 Rishi Sunak 13%

    The trend continues this morning.

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.14 Liz Truss 88%
    8.4 Rishi Sunak 12%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.14 Liz Truss 88%
    8.4 Rishi Sunak 12%
    8/1 against Rishi. 8/1 on Liz.

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.13 Liz Truss 88%
    8.8 Rishi Sunak 11%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.12 Liz Truss 89%
    9 Rishi Sunak 11%

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.16 Liz Truss 86%
    7.6 Rishi Sunak 13%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.15 Liz Truss 87%
    7.6 Rishi Sunak 13%

    The trend continues this morning.

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.14 Liz Truss 88%
    8.4 Rishi Sunak 12%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.14 Liz Truss 88%
    8.4 Rishi Sunak 12%
    8/1 against Rishi. 8/1 on Liz.

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.13 Liz Truss 88%
    8.8 Rishi Sunak 11%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.12 Liz Truss 89%
    9 Rishi Sunak 11%
    Returns now so meagre that I'm not sure it's worth putting any more on Truss.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,776

    UK heatwave: Weather forecasters report unprecedented trolling

    The BBC's team received hundreds of abusive tweets or emails

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-62323048

    That sounds terrible...Then you look at the examples...."get a grip", "1975/76"..."you are fear mongering". They are not even hurty words.

    You would call them snowflakes but apparently they don't exist anymore.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.16 Liz Truss 86%
    7.6 Rishi Sunak 13%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.15 Liz Truss 87%
    7.6 Rishi Sunak 13%

    The trend continues this morning.

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.14 Liz Truss 88%
    8.4 Rishi Sunak 12%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.14 Liz Truss 88%
    8.4 Rishi Sunak 12%
    8/1 against Rishi. 8/1 on Liz.

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.13 Liz Truss 88%
    8.8 Rishi Sunak 11%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.12 Liz Truss 89%
    9 Rishi Sunak 11%

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.16 Liz Truss 86%
    7.6 Rishi Sunak 13%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.15 Liz Truss 87%
    7.6 Rishi Sunak 13%

    The trend continues this morning.

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.14 Liz Truss 88%
    8.4 Rishi Sunak 12%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.14 Liz Truss 88%
    8.4 Rishi Sunak 12%
    8/1 against Rishi. 8/1 on Liz.

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.13 Liz Truss 88%
    8.8 Rishi Sunak 11%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.12 Liz Truss 89%
    9 Rishi Sunak 11%
    Returns now so meagre that I'm not sure it's worth putting any more on Truss.
    I went for a final heave laying Rishi at 6.8.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    Nigelb said:



    This goes some way to explaining Putin's Kiev gamble. And the recent turmoil in Ukraine's security service

    https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/ukraine-crisis-russia-saboteurs/
    ...The fall of Chornobyl, site of the world’s worst nuclear disaster, stands out as an anomaly in the five-month old war: a successful blitzkrieg operation in a conflict marked elsewhere by a brutal and halting advance by Russian troops and grinding resistance by Ukraine.

    Now a Reuters investigation has found that Russia’s success at Chornobyl was no accident, but part of a long-standing Kremlin operation to infiltrate the Ukrainian state with secret agents.

    Five people with knowledge of the Kremlin’s preparations said war planners around President Vladimir Putin believed that, aided by these agents, Russia would require only a small military force and a few days to force Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s administration to quit, flee or capitulate...

    70,000 dead and maimed later, there is no Plan B.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    Unpopular said:

    kjh said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I reckon Truss is going to win a small majority. Bet accordingly

    Thanks, I’ve just lumped on Starmer as PM after next election
    Truss is plausible, and everybody hates Woke Shit

    That's my thinking

    I reckon the Right could win every election in the West for the next 20 years, if the leaders on the Right aren't insane - thanks to the Woke insanity of the Western Left, and the threat from Fascist Russia, etc

    Only a non-Woke Left can prosper. That is not Starmer; he is Woke but tries to hide it
    Woke issues will take a backseat over the impending cost of living crisis caused by rising energy bills this coming winter. Especially if it’s a cold one.

    Most people don’t care about these work issues. It’s only a small minority on either side of the debate who do.
    Agree 100%. Woke is a significant subset of political correctness which is a subset of jobs worth. We have always had it, although it evolves over time. It is and always has existed in local authorities, government and large corporations. It isn't just a left wing thing, it is a case of not using common sense most of the time. It drives me mad when it affects me. The right might make it an issue but in the grand scheme of things it really isn't. It only seems to be Leon and Casino who really get wound up about it here.
    I agree with this. My own personal theory is that a lot of it, that comes out of meetings particularly, is showing off how deeply someone has thought of an issue.

    To give a non-political example, I was in a fire warden meeting once. Our building hosts an outreach organisation that primarily runs sessions for school pupils. We were discussing interesting stuff about fire safety, people propping open fire doors, leaving stuff in hallways and such like. The topic turned to evacuation plans and routes of egress. All very sensible. Then someone mentioned that a child with poor mobility would be *gasp* venturing onto the second floor of the building. Well, we were off to the races then, as busybody after busybody around the table tried to outdo each other in thinking of the most ridiculous and improbable scenario and what we should do in each. In response to one such scenario the outreach people said 'In that case we would just carry the child,' to which another responded 'But some children don't like to be touched.' The building would be on fire to a degree that the personalised evacuation plan for that child would no longer be possible, I think between being carried and burning to death the child, and child's parents could probably get over it! That took us onto a discussion about whether we should change the fire assembly point for the children further away from the building. 'But what if the wind changes?' Etc etc. It was interesting to watch.

    It is good to think about things comprehensively but you can quickly lose sight of reality and as people begin to outcompete each other the process is then turbo charged. I think at one point someone wanted to forbid the girl in a wheelchair even coming into the building, which, while the sentiment came from a place of concern, would have been absurd and offensive.
    I think between being carried and burning to death the child, and child's parents could probably get over it!

    {The Saudi Religious Police have entered the chat}
    What would the fire brigade do - after all their is a lift which is named after them..

    Give people an issue and they focus on the issue instead of thinking how stupid is this...

    I'm seeing it at the moment when people are looking at a change brought on by law within the industry I do some work in. Every single solution I've so far seen fixes problem A but creates different (even bigger) ones. And the actual answer is to take a step back and look at the situation as a whole at which point a sane answer is incredibly obvious. Only 1 person out of the 20 I've so far spoken to got it without me dropping very big hints...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    Javier Blas
    @JavierBlas
    ·
    2h
    COLUMN: The first European country to suffer a blackout this winter? Don't think about Germany -- the problem is likely to be in France.

    Forward electricity markets in France are pricing a dire winter outlook | #EnergyCrisis 🖥️Full
    @opinion
    column here: https://bloomberg.com/opinion/articl

    https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1552904218515750912
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Mark, worth recalling the US did offer to evacuate Zelensky. War might've been over rapidly had he gone for that.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    Phillips P. OBrien
    @PhillipsPOBrien
    ·
    19m
    Putting this here--Cummings is wrong on every level. You cant forfeit your Geneva conventions rights as states are signatories and that obligates them. He obviously had no idea about that which he was pontificating. Doesnt stop him though.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094

    Pulpstar said:

    Truss - PM
    Clarke - Chancellor
    Wallace - Defence (Small chance of Foreign)

    Those are the three I'm very sure of, with the possible exception of Wallace to Foreign. If he goes to Foreign then he's likely to be next leader, staying at defence would indicate to me he doesn't want the top job - so though he'll be one of the likely early favourites along with Badenoch for Tory leader after next he should be opposed in the market if that's the case.

    Good analysis
    Not so sure - Leadsom was an early backer and there were rumours she had been promised number eleven, but now the word on the street seems to be that Kwasi is on a promise?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Truss - PM
    Clarke - Chancellor
    Wallace - Defence (Small chance of Foreign)

    Those are the three I'm very sure of, with the possible exception of Wallace to Foreign. If he goes to Foreign then he's likely to be next leader, staying at defence would indicate to me he doesn't want the top job - so though he'll be one of the likely early favourites along with Badenoch for Tory leader after next he should be opposed in the market if that's the case.

    Good analysis
    Not so sure - Leadsom was an early backer and there were rumours she had been promised number eleven, but now the word on the street seems to be that Kwasi is on a promise?
    Leadsom ran Penny Mordaunt's campaign.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Truss - PM
    Clarke - Chancellor
    Wallace - Defence (Small chance of Foreign)

    Those are the three I'm very sure of, with the possible exception of Wallace to Foreign. If he goes to Foreign then he's likely to be next leader, staying at defence would indicate to me he doesn't want the top job - so though he'll be one of the likely early favourites along with Badenoch for Tory leader after next he should be opposed in the market if that's the case.

    Good analysis
    Not so sure - Leadsom was an early backer and there were rumours she had been promised number eleven, but now the word on the street seems to be that Kwasi is on a promise?
    One advantage Truss has, and I hope she seizes it, is six weeks to plan a Cabinet. She is in such a dominant position now, she has no need to submit to blandishments in exchange for posts.
    Simply putting the best person for each job would be a huge advance on the current regime.
    Will she do so?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094


    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Truss - PM
    Clarke - Chancellor
    Wallace - Defence (Small chance of Foreign)

    Those are the three I'm very sure of, with the possible exception of Wallace to Foreign. If he goes to Foreign then he's likely to be next leader, staying at defence would indicate to me he doesn't want the top job - so though he'll be one of the likely early favourites along with Badenoch for Tory leader after next he should be opposed in the market if that's the case.

    Good analysis
    Not so sure - Leadsom was an early backer and there were rumours she had been promised number eleven, but now the word on the street seems to be that Kwasi is on a promise?
    Leadsom ran Penny Mordaunt's campaign.
    Yes, you're right, my mix up. Truss's pick is Kwasi, no?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,282
    edited July 2022
    eek said:

    Unpopular said:

    kjh said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I reckon Truss is going to win a small majority. Bet accordingly

    Thanks, I’ve just lumped on Starmer as PM after next election
    Truss is plausible, and everybody hates Woke Shit

    That's my thinking

    I reckon the Right could win every election in the West for the next 20 years, if the leaders on the Right aren't insane - thanks to the Woke insanity of the Western Left, and the threat from Fascist Russia, etc

    Only a non-Woke Left can prosper. That is not Starmer; he is Woke but tries to hide it
    Woke issues will take a backseat over the impending cost of living crisis caused by rising energy bills this coming winter. Especially if it’s a cold one.

    Most people don’t care about these work issues. It’s only a small minority on either side of the debate who do.
    Agree 100%. Woke is a significant subset of political correctness which is a subset of jobs worth. We have always had it, although it evolves over time. It is and always has existed in local authorities, government and large corporations. It isn't just a left wing thing, it is a case of not using common sense most of the time. It drives me mad when it affects me. The right might make it an issue but in the grand scheme of things it really isn't. It only seems to be Leon and Casino who really get wound up about it here.
    I agree with this. My own personal theory is that a lot of it, that comes out of meetings particularly, is showing off how deeply someone has thought of an issue.

    To give a non-political example, I was in a fire warden meeting once. Our building hosts an outreach organisation that primarily runs sessions for school pupils. We were discussing interesting stuff about fire safety, people propping open fire doors, leaving stuff in hallways and such like. The topic turned to evacuation plans and routes of egress. All very sensible. Then someone mentioned that a child with poor mobility would be *gasp* venturing onto the second floor of the building. Well, we were off to the races then, as busybody after busybody around the table tried to outdo each other in thinking of the most ridiculous and improbable scenario and what we should do in each. In response to one such scenario the outreach people said 'In that case we would just carry the child,' to which another responded 'But some children don't like to be touched.' The building would be on fire to a degree that the personalised evacuation plan for that child would no longer be possible, I think between being carried and burning to death the child, and child's parents could probably get over it! That took us onto a discussion about whether we should change the fire assembly point for the children further away from the building. 'But what if the wind changes?' Etc etc. It was interesting to watch.

    It is good to think about things comprehensively but you can quickly lose sight of reality and as people begin to outcompete each other the process is then turbo charged. I think at one point someone wanted to forbid the girl in a wheelchair even coming into the building, which, while the sentiment came from a place of concern, would have been absurd and offensive.
    I think between being carried and burning to death the child, and child's parents could probably get over it!

    {The Saudi Religious Police have entered the chat}
    What would the fire brigade do - after all their is a lift which is named after them..

    Give people an issue and they focus on the issue instead of thinking how stupid is this...

    I'm seeing it at the moment when people are looking at a change brought on by law within the industry I do some work in. Every single solution I've so far seen fixes problem A but creates different (even bigger) ones. And the actual answer is to take a step back and look at the situation as a whole at which point a sane answer is incredibly obvious. Only 1 person out of the 20 I've so far spoken to got it without me dropping very big hints...
    Personally, what I most find interesting in @Unpopular's anecdote is "a child with poor mobility would be *gasp* venturing onto the second floor of the building".

    I have lost count of the number of times able-bodied people decide what I as a disabled person can or cannot do, can or cannot go etc. "for my own safety".

    And the worst are the ones who think they are being especially thoughtful or caring.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,768
    edited July 2022
    Unpopular said:

    kjh said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I reckon Truss is going to win a small majority. Bet accordingly

    Thanks, I’ve just lumped on Starmer as PM after next election
    Truss is plausible, and everybody hates Woke Shit

    That's my thinking

    I reckon the Right could win every election in the West for the next 20 years, if the leaders on the Right aren't insane - thanks to the Woke insanity of the Western Left, and the threat from Fascist Russia, etc

    Only a non-Woke Left can prosper. That is not Starmer; he is Woke but tries to hide it
    Woke issues will take a backseat over the impending cost of living crisis caused by rising energy bills this coming winter. Especially if it’s a cold one.

    Most people don’t care about these work issues. It’s only a small minority on either side of the debate who do.
    Agree 100%. Woke is a significant subset of political correctness which is a subset of jobs worth. We have always had it, although it evolves over time. It is and always has existed in local authorities, government and large corporations. It isn't just a left wing thing, it is a case of not using common sense most of the time. It drives me mad when it affects me. The right might make it an issue but in the grand scheme of things it really isn't. It only seems to be Leon and Casino who really get wound up about it here.
    I agree with this. My own personal theory is that a lot of it, that comes out of meetings particularly, is showing off how deeply someone has thought of an issue.

    To give a non-political example, I was in a fire warden meeting once. Our building hosts an outreach organisation that primarily runs sessions for school pupils. We were discussing interesting stuff about fire safety, people propping open fire doors, leaving stuff in hallways and such like. The topic turned to evacuation plans and routes of egress. All very sensible. Then someone mentioned that a child with poor mobility would be *gasp* venturing onto the second floor of the building. Well, we were off to the races then, as busybody after busybody around the table tried to outdo each other in thinking of the most ridiculous and improbable scenario and what we should do in each. In response to one such scenario the outreach people said 'In that case we would just carry the child,' to which another responded 'But some children don't like to be touched.' The building would be on fire to a degree that the personalised evacuation plan for that child would no longer be possible, I think between being carried and burning to death the child, and child's parents could probably get over it! That took us onto a discussion about whether we should change the fire assembly point for the children further away from the building. 'But what if the wind changes?' Etc etc. It was interesting to watch.

    It is good to think about things comprehensively but you can quickly lose sight of reality and as people begin to outcompete each other the process is then turbo charged. I think at one point someone wanted to forbid the girl in a wheelchair even coming into the building, which, while the sentiment came from a place of concern, would have been absurd and offensive.
    Hector Nicol used to tell a joke about that:

    A signalman the highlands of Scotland decided he wanted a promotion. So he wrote off to head office and a senior manager came out to put him through the signalman is test to see if he could cope with being a signalman in a bigger junction box.

    "There are two trains running towards each other on the same stretch of singletrack, "the manager began. "What do you do?"

    "Well, "said the signalman, "I would immediately pull this lever here which would set the signal to danger and stop one of the traits so that the other could pass it in safety."

    "You get there in the liver is completely jammed," said the manager. "What do you do then?"

    "In that case," said the signalman, "I would go across to the emergency button over there, press it, and that would set all signals on the line to danger and bring all traffic to a stop."

    "Right," said the manager. "But – oh dear! – You get there and there is a power cut and the electrical button is not working."

    "In thay case," said the signalman, "I would run down to the lineside emergency lever pull it back as that would set all signals to stop manually and bring all traffic to a halt."

    "You get there," said the manager, "and the lever has rusted through because the rain has been at it and nobody noticed."

    "In that case," said the signalman, "I would run across the line side cabinet, get out the detonators and the red flag, I will put detonators on the line to stop one train and I'd run down the line with the red flag to stop the other.o"

    "But," said the manager, "a lorry has just crashed into the line side cabinets destroyed everything in it. What do you do then?"

    The signalman thinks very hard for a moment. Finally he says, "The only thing left to do is to run down to the village and get my uncle Alistair and bring him back here."

    "Why?" asks the manager.

    "Because he's never seen a train crash!"
  • James_MJames_M Posts: 48
    edited July 2022
    In terms of MP supporters last night, there were not a huge amount of obvious sign-ups in the room. Obviously David Davis backs Sunak (introducing him) and James Cleverly introduced Truss. Andrea Jenkyns seemed to be more enthusiastic for Truss, but I do not know if she has formally backed her. For Sunak, his intro video had my MP Juilian Smith, the MP for Harrogate Andrew Jones, the MP for Thirsk Kevin Hollinrake and a little suprisingly for me at least, Philip Davies of Shipley backing him.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,768

    Phillips P. OBrien
    @PhillipsPOBrien
    ·
    19m
    Putting this here--Cummings is wrong on every level. You cant forfeit your Geneva conventions rights as states are signatories and that obligates them. He obviously had no idea about that which he was pontificating. Doesnt stop him though.

    When did it ever?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,940
    eek said:

    Unpopular said:

    kjh said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I reckon Truss is going to win a small majority. Bet accordingly

    Thanks, I’ve just lumped on Starmer as PM after next election
    Truss is plausible, and everybody hates Woke Shit

    That's my thinking

    I reckon the Right could win every election in the West for the next 20 years, if the leaders on the Right aren't insane - thanks to the Woke insanity of the Western Left, and the threat from Fascist Russia, etc

    Only a non-Woke Left can prosper. That is not Starmer; he is Woke but tries to hide it
    Woke issues will take a backseat over the impending cost of living crisis caused by rising energy bills this coming winter. Especially if it’s a cold one.

    Most people don’t care about these work issues. It’s only a small minority on either side of the debate who do.
    Agree 100%. Woke is a significant subset of political correctness which is a subset of jobs worth. We have always had it, although it evolves over time. It is and always has existed in local authorities, government and large corporations. It isn't just a left wing thing, it is a case of not using common sense most of the time. It drives me mad when it affects me. The right might make it an issue but in the grand scheme of things it really isn't. It only seems to be Leon and Casino who really get wound up about it here.
    I agree with this. My own personal theory is that a lot of it, that comes out of meetings particularly, is showing off how deeply someone has thought of an issue.

    To give a non-political example, I was in a fire warden meeting once. Our building hosts an outreach organisation that primarily runs sessions for school pupils. We were discussing interesting stuff about fire safety, people propping open fire doors, leaving stuff in hallways and such like. The topic turned to evacuation plans and routes of egress. All very sensible. Then someone mentioned that a child with poor mobility would be *gasp* venturing onto the second floor of the building. Well, we were off to the races then, as busybody after busybody around the table tried to outdo each other in thinking of the most ridiculous and improbable scenario and what we should do in each. In response to one such scenario the outreach people said 'In that case we would just carry the child,' to which another responded 'But some children don't like to be touched.' The building would be on fire to a degree that the personalised evacuation plan for that child would no longer be possible, I think between being carried and burning to death the child, and child's parents could probably get over it! That took us onto a discussion about whether we should change the fire assembly point for the children further away from the building. 'But what if the wind changes?' Etc etc. It was interesting to watch.

    It is good to think about things comprehensively but you can quickly lose sight of reality and as people begin to outcompete each other the process is then turbo charged. I think at one point someone wanted to forbid the girl in a wheelchair even coming into the building, which, while the sentiment came from a place of concern, would have been absurd and offensive.
    I think between being carried and burning to death the child, and child's parents could probably get over it!

    {The Saudi Religious Police have entered the chat}
    What would the fire brigade do - after all their is a lift which is named after them..

    Give people an issue and they focus on the issue instead of thinking how stupid is this...

    I'm seeing it at the moment when people are looking at a change brought on by law within the industry I do some work in. Every single solution I've so far seen fixes problem A but creates different (even bigger) ones. And the actual answer is to take a step back and look at the situation as a whole at which point a sane answer is incredibly obvious. Only 1 person out of the 20 I've so far spoken to got it without me dropping very big hints...
    Hiring a hitman to kill the CEO, presumably, but do you have the contacts?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,282
    DavidL said:

    UK heatwave: Weather forecasters report unprecedented trolling

    The BBC's team received hundreds of abusive tweets or emails

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-62323048

    That sounds terrible...Then you look at the examples...."get a grip", "1975/76"..."you are fear mongering". They are not even hurty words.

    You would call them snowflakes but apparently they don't exist anymore.
    Melted in last week's heat?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,776

    Javier Blas
    @JavierBlas
    ·
    2h
    COLUMN: The first European country to suffer a blackout this winter? Don't think about Germany -- the problem is likely to be in France.

    Forward electricity markets in France are pricing a dire winter outlook | #EnergyCrisis 🖥️Full
    @opinion
    column here: https://bloomberg.com/opinion/articl

    https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1552904218515750912

    Right now 9.22% of all the electricity being generated in the UK is being exported to France:http://gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

    Never seen anything like it. The companies that can use LNG to generate electricity here must be coining it in.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    dixiedean said:

    One advantage Truss has, and I hope she seizes it, is six weeks to plan a Cabinet. She is in such a dominant position now, she has no need to submit to blandishments in exchange for posts.
    Simply putting the best person for each job would be a huge advance on the current regime.
    Will she do so?

    No
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,940
    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Truss - PM
    Clarke - Chancellor
    Wallace - Defence (Small chance of Foreign)

    Those are the three I'm very sure of, with the possible exception of Wallace to Foreign. If he goes to Foreign then he's likely to be next leader, staying at defence would indicate to me he doesn't want the top job - so though he'll be one of the likely early favourites along with Badenoch for Tory leader after next he should be opposed in the market if that's the case.

    Good analysis
    Not so sure - Leadsom was an early backer and there were rumours she had been promised number eleven, but now the word on the street seems to be that Kwasi is on a promise?
    A further complication is that Team Truss might decide to make Rishi an offer to fold early, rather than risk running the last month just in case something does turn up. What would Rishi want?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,282

    Fishing said:

    OT PB's jet set might be interested in the Telegraph's scientifically-determined (awarding points for 36 criteria) list of the top 60 most beautiful countries. (£££)

    In other words they made up 36 numbers for each country, rather than just one. I often meet this thought in the economic and statistical modelling I do professionally - for some reason, making up dozens of numbers and aggregating them seems more robust and professional than just making up one number. Never understood why.

    FWIW I think Switzerland should definitely be in the Top 10.
    Yes, even if some of the numbers (length of coastline, say) are objective, simply adding them up might still be nonsensical. What would adding a man's height to his salary tell us?
    What would be more useful/interesting is working backwards from an objective measure of how popular a country is to visit (number of tourists, say), and then regressing that against other factors - cost, coastline length, castle density, sunshine hours, number of professional orchestras, Koppen climate classification, distance from London, etc, - and seeing which factors were most predictive of tourist numbers.

    Then you might find countries which are anomalous and don't fit the model.
    Can someone who pays for the Torygraph share their top 10 so that we paupers can join in the debate?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Truss - PM
    Clarke - Chancellor
    Wallace - Defence (Small chance of Foreign)

    Those are the three I'm very sure of, with the possible exception of Wallace to Foreign. If he goes to Foreign then he's likely to be next leader, staying at defence would indicate to me he doesn't want the top job - so though he'll be one of the likely early favourites along with Badenoch for Tory leader after next he should be opposed in the market if that's the case.

    Good analysis
    Not so sure - Leadsom was an early backer and there were rumours she had been promised number eleven, but now the word on the street seems to be that Kwasi is on a promise?
    A further complication is that Team Truss might decide to make Rishi an offer to fold early, rather than risk running the last month just in case something does turn up. What would Rishi want?
    Chancellor would be a good troll.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,098
    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Cookie said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    I just watched Truss do the Q&A at the hustings

    A remarkable transformation. She is the real deal. She has the empathy and cleverness to win the next election for the Tories (barring a scandal)

    Somehow, not by merit, purely by luck, the Tories have unearthed a star. She espouses rightwing beliefs with humanity and humour. Starmer might easily struggle against her - a younger and articulate woman. Fascinating

    She seems to have really grown into this as it has gone on.

    She’s refusing to do an interview with Andrew Neil, but she doesn’t need to. She’s pretty much got an unassailable lead now. She has little to gain from it.

    Her big challenge is the cost of living crisis especially rising energy prices which will really have an impact and people are really getting worried about.
    Quite a lot of people have children. Quite a lot of those are increasingly worried about the power the like of Tavistock have. People threatening to mess with your kids is a bigger issue than the cost of living.
    If you have a child 0-10, perhaps.

    But in aggregate, across the whole population? The energy crisis affects everyone. Trans, straight, gay, Scotland, England, young, old, renters, homeowners.

    Including me, as it happens. I fucked up and waited too long to move to my new tariff. Ouch.
    We are on a fixed tariff until December this year. Currently paying £100 a month. It is a gift and a curse. We are going to get hit very badly. If I can get a reasonable fixed tariff just before the fixed ends then I may do it.

    We are currently expected, post October cap, to see it go up to £350 a month. It will hurt us but we are lucky as we can afford it. In practical terms it means one or two nights out a month less than current. But for many people they will be crucified and wholesale gas prices are up yet again today.

    If this is not tackled then there will be civil unrest and people on the street.
    It's the standing charge increase that annoys me. Where's the incentive to reduce demand? I live in a tiny flat, don't use much energy, but still get hit by that.
    A hard-nosed analysis could say that since you are a low user there's no demand to reduce, so no value in incentivizing it for you.

    In reality, for each unit of elec you avoid using, you save yourself 28p or so, which is quite the incentive.

    On the standing charge, the increase is mainly to pay for increased regulatory costs associated with moving so many customers from bust companies, and similar. So is actually a fixed cost and spread across the board. There's no convincing reason why that should be a per-usage charge afaics.

    Plus I expect it should reduce again in the future, and if it was rolled into say +5p per elec unit that would be more tricky to unwind.
  • DavidL said:

    Javier Blas
    @JavierBlas
    ·
    2h
    COLUMN: The first European country to suffer a blackout this winter? Don't think about Germany -- the problem is likely to be in France.

    Forward electricity markets in France are pricing a dire winter outlook | #EnergyCrisis 🖥️Full
    @opinion
    column here: https://bloomberg.com/opinion/articl

    https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1552904218515750912

    Right now 9.22% of all the electricity being generated in the UK is being exported to France:http://gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

    Never seen anything like it. The companies that can use LNG to generate electricity here must be coining it in.
    Are France actually needing the energy themselves, or are we exporting it to France in order for it to then be re-exported elsewhere that we're not directly connected to like Germany etc?

    I thought France had the highest nuclear baseload in Europe so were most immune to the current crisis, so seems very odd they might be the ones facing blackouts?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884
    Penddu2 said:

    Let me see if I understand things correctly.... There are credible stories circulating that say:
    - the Prime Minister is in the pay of the KGB
    - the next Prime Minister enjoys being tied up in S&M bondage games
    - the next monarch enjoys being buggered with a strap-on

    How can a Finnish Twitter rumour possibly make things worse???

    Define 'credible'
    Penddu2 said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Let me see if I understand things correctly.... There are credible stories circulating that say:
    - the Prime Minister is in the pay of the KGB
    - the next Prime Minister enjoys being tied up in S&M bondage games
    - the next monarch enjoys being buggered with a strap-on

    How can a Finnish Twitter rumour possibly make things worse???

    Define 'credible'
    Leon said so....
    He also believes that UAP's are aliens and that anyone who doesn't agree with him is a closed minded simpleton.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    DavidL said:

    Javier Blas
    @JavierBlas
    ·
    2h
    COLUMN: The first European country to suffer a blackout this winter? Don't think about Germany -- the problem is likely to be in France.

    Forward electricity markets in France are pricing a dire winter outlook | #EnergyCrisis 🖥️Full
    @opinion
    column here: https://bloomberg.com/opinion/articl

    https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1552904218515750912

    Right now 9.22% of all the electricity being generated in the UK is being exported to France:http://gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

    Never seen anything like it. The companies that can use LNG to generate electricity here must be coining it in.
    Are France actually needing the energy themselves, or are we exporting it to France in order for it to then be re-exported elsewhere that we're not directly connected to like Germany etc?

    I thought France had the highest nuclear baseload in Europe so were most immune to the current crisis, so seems very odd they might be the ones facing blackouts?
    Did I read on here a couple of weeks ago, that French nuclear was lower than usual this year, due to heavy maintainance on a number of facilities?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    MattW said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Cookie said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    I just watched Truss do the Q&A at the hustings

    A remarkable transformation. She is the real deal. She has the empathy and cleverness to win the next election for the Tories (barring a scandal)

    Somehow, not by merit, purely by luck, the Tories have unearthed a star. She espouses rightwing beliefs with humanity and humour. Starmer might easily struggle against her - a younger and articulate woman. Fascinating

    She seems to have really grown into this as it has gone on.

    She’s refusing to do an interview with Andrew Neil, but she doesn’t need to. She’s pretty much got an unassailable lead now. She has little to gain from it.

    Her big challenge is the cost of living crisis especially rising energy prices which will really have an impact and people are really getting worried about.
    Quite a lot of people have children. Quite a lot of those are increasingly worried about the power the like of Tavistock have. People threatening to mess with your kids is a bigger issue than the cost of living.
    If you have a child 0-10, perhaps.

    But in aggregate, across the whole population? The energy crisis affects everyone. Trans, straight, gay, Scotland, England, young, old, renters, homeowners.

    Including me, as it happens. I fucked up and waited too long to move to my new tariff. Ouch.
    We are on a fixed tariff until December this year. Currently paying £100 a month. It is a gift and a curse. We are going to get hit very badly. If I can get a reasonable fixed tariff just before the fixed ends then I may do it.

    We are currently expected, post October cap, to see it go up to £350 a month. It will hurt us but we are lucky as we can afford it. In practical terms it means one or two nights out a month less than current. But for many people they will be crucified and wholesale gas prices are up yet again today.

    If this is not tackled then there will be civil unrest and people on the street.
    It's the standing charge increase that annoys me. Where's the incentive to reduce demand? I live in a tiny flat, don't use much energy, but still get hit by that.
    A hard-nosed analysis could say that since you are a low user there's no demand to reduce, so no value in incentivizing it for you.

    In reality, for each unit of elec you avoid using, you save yourself 28p or so, which is quite the incentive.

    On the standing charge, the increase is mainly to pay for increased regulatory costs associated with moving so many customers from bust companies, and similar. So is actually a fixed cost and spread across the board. There's no convincing reason why that should be a per-usage charge afaics.

    Plus I expect it should reduce again in the future, and if it was rolled into say +5p per elec unit that would be more tricky to unwind.
    Just seen the details of the energy support scheme. £66 per month credited to my account for six months over the winter. That's going to put me into credit. Which won't be easy to get back. Should I just cancel my direct debit for the duration I wonder?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,776
    edited July 2022

    DavidL said:

    Javier Blas
    @JavierBlas
    ·
    2h
    COLUMN: The first European country to suffer a blackout this winter? Don't think about Germany -- the problem is likely to be in France.

    Forward electricity markets in France are pricing a dire winter outlook | #EnergyCrisis 🖥️Full
    @opinion
    column here: https://bloomberg.com/opinion/articl

    https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1552904218515750912

    Right now 9.22% of all the electricity being generated in the UK is being exported to France:http://gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

    Never seen anything like it. The companies that can use LNG to generate electricity here must be coining it in.
    Are France actually needing the energy themselves, or are we exporting it to France in order for it to then be re-exported elsewhere that we're not directly connected to like Germany etc?

    I thought France had the highest nuclear baseload in Europe so were most immune to the current crisis, so seems very odd they might be the ones facing blackouts?
    I don't know. Now there's a rare confession on here!

    Actually gridwatch France indicates that 10% of their production is going on to Germany so it appears that they are re-exporting most of it: http://gridwatch.templar.co.uk/france/
  • Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Javier Blas
    @JavierBlas
    ·
    2h
    COLUMN: The first European country to suffer a blackout this winter? Don't think about Germany -- the problem is likely to be in France.

    Forward electricity markets in France are pricing a dire winter outlook | #EnergyCrisis 🖥️Full
    @opinion
    column here: https://bloomberg.com/opinion/articl

    https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1552904218515750912

    Right now 9.22% of all the electricity being generated in the UK is being exported to France:http://gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

    Never seen anything like it. The companies that can use LNG to generate electricity here must be coining it in.
    Are France actually needing the energy themselves, or are we exporting it to France in order for it to then be re-exported elsewhere that we're not directly connected to like Germany etc?

    I thought France had the highest nuclear baseload in Europe so were most immune to the current crisis, so seems very odd they might be the ones facing blackouts?
    Did I read on here a couple of weeks ago, that French nuclear was lower than usual this year, due to heavy maintainance on a number of facilities?
    Lower nuclear in these current circumstances? What a perfect storm ...
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772

    DavidL said:

    Javier Blas
    @JavierBlas
    ·
    2h
    COLUMN: The first European country to suffer a blackout this winter? Don't think about Germany -- the problem is likely to be in France.

    Forward electricity markets in France are pricing a dire winter outlook | #EnergyCrisis 🖥️Full
    @opinion
    column here: https://bloomberg.com/opinion/articl

    https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1552904218515750912

    Right now 9.22% of all the electricity being generated in the UK is being exported to France:http://gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

    Never seen anything like it. The companies that can use LNG to generate electricity here must be coining it in.
    Are France actually needing the energy themselves, or are we exporting it to France in order for it to then be re-exported elsewhere that we're not directly connected to like Germany etc?

    I thought France had the highest nuclear baseload in Europe so were most immune to the current crisis, so seems very odd they might be the ones facing blackouts?
    There's a gridwatch page for France. You can see that output from French nuclear plants is massively down on normal. If they can't get that back up for the winter it's a big problem to combine with the Russian gas problem.

    http://gridwatch.templar.co.uk/france/
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    dixiedean said:

    MattW said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Cookie said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    I just watched Truss do the Q&A at the hustings

    A remarkable transformation. She is the real deal. She has the empathy and cleverness to win the next election for the Tories (barring a scandal)

    Somehow, not by merit, purely by luck, the Tories have unearthed a star. She espouses rightwing beliefs with humanity and humour. Starmer might easily struggle against her - a younger and articulate woman. Fascinating

    She seems to have really grown into this as it has gone on.

    She’s refusing to do an interview with Andrew Neil, but she doesn’t need to. She’s pretty much got an unassailable lead now. She has little to gain from it.

    Her big challenge is the cost of living crisis especially rising energy prices which will really have an impact and people are really getting worried about.
    Quite a lot of people have children. Quite a lot of those are increasingly worried about the power the like of Tavistock have. People threatening to mess with your kids is a bigger issue than the cost of living.
    If you have a child 0-10, perhaps.

    But in aggregate, across the whole population? The energy crisis affects everyone. Trans, straight, gay, Scotland, England, young, old, renters, homeowners.

    Including me, as it happens. I fucked up and waited too long to move to my new tariff. Ouch.
    We are on a fixed tariff until December this year. Currently paying £100 a month. It is a gift and a curse. We are going to get hit very badly. If I can get a reasonable fixed tariff just before the fixed ends then I may do it.

    We are currently expected, post October cap, to see it go up to £350 a month. It will hurt us but we are lucky as we can afford it. In practical terms it means one or two nights out a month less than current. But for many people they will be crucified and wholesale gas prices are up yet again today.

    If this is not tackled then there will be civil unrest and people on the street.
    It's the standing charge increase that annoys me. Where's the incentive to reduce demand? I live in a tiny flat, don't use much energy, but still get hit by that.
    A hard-nosed analysis could say that since you are a low user there's no demand to reduce, so no value in incentivizing it for you.

    In reality, for each unit of elec you avoid using, you save yourself 28p or so, which is quite the incentive.

    On the standing charge, the increase is mainly to pay for increased regulatory costs associated with moving so many customers from bust companies, and similar. So is actually a fixed cost and spread across the board. There's no convincing reason why that should be a per-usage charge afaics.

    Plus I expect it should reduce again in the future, and if it was rolled into say +5p per elec unit that would be more tricky to unwind.
    Just seen the details of the energy support scheme. £66 per month credited to my account for six months over the winter. That's going to put me into credit. Which won't be easy to get back. Should I just cancel my direct debit for the duration I wonder?
    Does one apply for this or does it come automatically? I am jolly glad that I am on a fixed rate until summer 2023.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,098
    edited July 2022
    DavidL said:

    Javier Blas
    @JavierBlas
    ·
    2h
    COLUMN: The first European country to suffer a blackout this winter? Don't think about Germany -- the problem is likely to be in France.

    Forward electricity markets in France are pricing a dire winter outlook | #EnergyCrisis 🖥️Full
    @opinion
    column here: https://bloomberg.com/opinion/articl

    https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1552904218515750912

    Right now 9.22% of all the electricity being generated in the UK is being exported to France:http://gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

    Never seen anything like it. The companies that can use LNG to generate electricity here must be coining it in.
    Yes.

    AIUI this is a cross-European market where UK gas generated elec, plus whatever else they are importing, is cheaper than the alternative sources where they can get it.

    I'm not clear why it is 3GW not 4GW, as I think we now have 4GW of interconnectors to France. Perhaps the burnt-down one is not mended yet.

    Good for our gas power stations, who will get more business and pay more taxes, and good for keeping overall European prices a little lower, and for our balance of payments. And no extra pollution unless you count substituting the French nuclear fleet, which are partly closed so you can't count them. If it can be done from zero carbon elec, I *think* prices will make that happen.

    I see from Gridwatch France that they are currently importing 21% of their supply - 6% from UK, and 9% from Germany, plus bits, plus exporting 3% to Italy.
    https://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/france/
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,940

    Fishing said:

    OT PB's jet set might be interested in the Telegraph's scientifically-determined (awarding points for 36 criteria) list of the top 60 most beautiful countries. (£££)

    In other words they made up 36 numbers for each country, rather than just one. I often meet this thought in the economic and statistical modelling I do professionally - for some reason, making up dozens of numbers and aggregating them seems more robust and professional than just making up one number. Never understood why.

    FWIW I think Switzerland should definitely be in the Top 10.
    Yes, even if some of the numbers (length of coastline, say) are objective, simply adding them up might still be nonsensical. What would adding a man's height to his salary tell us?
    What would be more useful/interesting is working backwards from an objective measure of how popular a country is to visit (number of tourists, say), and then regressing that against other factors - cost, coastline length, castle density, sunshine hours, number of professional orchestras, Koppen climate classification, distance from London, etc, - and seeing which factors were most predictive of tourist numbers.

    Then you might find countries which are anomalous and don't fit the model.
    Can someone who pays for the Torygraph share their top 10 so that we paupers can join in the debate?
    The top 10 was posted by me at 7.37 BST.

    1 USA
    2 Australia
    3 Canada
    4 Japan
    5 Mexico
    6 Norway
    7 New Zealand
    8 India
    9 Italy
    10 Peru

    12 France
    13 Russia
    14 China

    19 United Kingdom

    22 Sweden

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/destinations/best-country-visit-travel-world-holiday-restaurant-things-to-do/ (£££)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Javier Blas
    @JavierBlas
    ·
    2h
    COLUMN: The first European country to suffer a blackout this winter? Don't think about Germany -- the problem is likely to be in France.

    Forward electricity markets in France are pricing a dire winter outlook | #EnergyCrisis 🖥️Full
    @opinion
    column here: https://bloomberg.com/opinion/articl

    https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1552904218515750912

    Right now 9.22% of all the electricity being generated in the UK is being exported to France:http://gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

    Never seen anything like it. The companies that can use LNG to generate electricity here must be coining it in.
    Are France actually needing the energy themselves, or are we exporting it to France in order for it to then be re-exported elsewhere that we're not directly connected to like Germany etc?

    I thought France had the highest nuclear baseload in Europe so were most immune to the current crisis, so seems very odd they might be the ones facing blackouts?
    Did I read on here a couple of weeks ago, that French nuclear was lower than usual this year, due to heavy maintainance on a number of facilities?
    I did. So you probably did too. Unfortunate timing. And a sign nuclear has its drawbacks as well. Although it is predictable.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    Tory members who back Truss are far more likely to want her cabinet to include Jacob Rees-Mogg, Nadine Dorries and Boris Johnson

    Rees-Mogg 80% Truss supporters / 36% Sunak supporters
    Braverman 75% / 53%
    Patel 71% / 46%
    Dorries 57% / 24%
    Johnson 55% / 18%

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/07/29/who-do-conservative-party-members-want-cabinet https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1552942422442872833/photo/1

    Tory members who back Sunak are far more likely to want her cabinet to include Tom Tugendhat, Michael Gove, Sajid Javid and Jeremy Hunt

    Tugendhat 75% Sunak supporters / 58% Truss supporters
    Gove 56% / 42%
    Javid 75% / 38%
    Hunt 53% / 18%

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/07/29/who-do-conservative-party-members-want-cabinet https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1552942427421478913/photo/1
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited July 2022
    One thing about an independent Scotland that isn't much discussed, it's wind power generation capacity is > England on an absolubte; and way way way better on a per head basis.
    Independent Scotland would be well set energy wise, whereas it would be a big problem for rUK long term.
  • eek said:

    Unpopular said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Unpopular said:

    Oooh, I like the idea of hosting it in Edinburgh (not just for selfish reasons, either). Twinned with Kyiv, good bit of money spent in Scotland and the UKGov looks nice... Don't know that there's anywhere in Edinburgh that could host it though.

    It was held in the Usher Hall in 1972...
    Just a quick Google says Usher Hall can hold about 2000, whereas you're probably wanting closer to 10,000 if not more these days. It might be possible to repurpose Murrayfield (it'd have the attendees praying for sun)? But with the Hydro just down the road...
    Brighton having the same conversation - the Dome, which held it in 1974 can only hold 1,700 - so the Amex is being suggested.

    Eurovision nowadays requires a venue of a minimum size of 10,000 and a suitable number of hotel rooms.

    Now there are a number of places that meet the first requirement but very few have enough available hotel rooms - for instance Leeds First Direct Arena hosts 11,500 but hotels are a mare on a normal weeknight let alone were an event to be on..

    I suspect the sane options are Manchester, Birmingham, Glasgow and possibly Liverpool.
    Edinburgh (think hotels used during annual Festival) says Hiya!
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Javier Blas
    @JavierBlas
    ·
    2h
    COLUMN: The first European country to suffer a blackout this winter? Don't think about Germany -- the problem is likely to be in France.

    Forward electricity markets in France are pricing a dire winter outlook | #EnergyCrisis 🖥️Full
    @opinion
    column here: https://bloomberg.com/opinion/articl

    https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1552904218515750912

    Right now 9.22% of all the electricity being generated in the UK is being exported to France:http://gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

    Never seen anything like it. The companies that can use LNG to generate electricity here must be coining it in.
    Are France actually needing the energy themselves, or are we exporting it to France in order for it to then be re-exported elsewhere that we're not directly connected to like Germany etc?

    I thought France had the highest nuclear baseload in Europe so were most immune to the current crisis, so seems very odd they might be the ones facing blackouts?
    I don't know. Now there's a rare confession on here!

    Actually gridwatch France indicates that 10% of their production is going on to Germany so it appears that they are re-exporting most of it: http://gridwatch.templar.co.uk/france/
    Other way round. 10% is coming from Germany. Some is being sent to Italy, but net France is importing 17.9% of their electricity at the moment.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    edited July 2022
    Cyclefree said:

    dixiedean said:

    MattW said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Cookie said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    I just watched Truss do the Q&A at the hustings

    A remarkable transformation. She is the real deal. She has the empathy and cleverness to win the next election for the Tories (barring a scandal)

    Somehow, not by merit, purely by luck, the Tories have unearthed a star. She espouses rightwing beliefs with humanity and humour. Starmer might easily struggle against her - a younger and articulate woman. Fascinating

    She seems to have really grown into this as it has gone on.

    She’s refusing to do an interview with Andrew Neil, but she doesn’t need to. She’s pretty much got an unassailable lead now. She has little to gain from it.

    Her big challenge is the cost of living crisis especially rising energy prices which will really have an impact and people are really getting worried about.
    Quite a lot of people have children. Quite a lot of those are increasingly worried about the power the like of Tavistock have. People threatening to mess with your kids is a bigger issue than the cost of living.
    If you have a child 0-10, perhaps.

    But in aggregate, across the whole population? The energy crisis affects everyone. Trans, straight, gay, Scotland, England, young, old, renters, homeowners.

    Including me, as it happens. I fucked up and waited too long to move to my new tariff. Ouch.
    We are on a fixed tariff until December this year. Currently paying £100 a month. It is a gift and a curse. We are going to get hit very badly. If I can get a reasonable fixed tariff just before the fixed ends then I may do it.

    We are currently expected, post October cap, to see it go up to £350 a month. It will hurt us but we are lucky as we can afford it. In practical terms it means one or two nights out a month less than current. But for many people they will be crucified and wholesale gas prices are up yet again today.

    If this is not tackled then there will be civil unrest and people on the street.
    It's the standing charge increase that annoys me. Where's the incentive to reduce demand? I live in a tiny flat, don't use much energy, but still get hit by that.
    A hard-nosed analysis could say that since you are a low user there's no demand to reduce, so no value in incentivizing it for you.

    In reality, for each unit of elec you avoid using, you save yourself 28p or so, which is quite the incentive.

    On the standing charge, the increase is mainly to pay for increased regulatory costs associated with moving so many customers from bust companies, and similar. So is actually a fixed cost and spread across the board. There's no convincing reason why that should be a per-usage charge afaics.

    Plus I expect it should reduce again in the future, and if it was rolled into say +5p per elec unit that would be more tricky to unwind.
    Just seen the details of the energy support scheme. £66 per month credited to my account for six months over the winter. That's going to put me into credit. Which won't be easy to get back. Should I just cancel my direct debit for the duration I wonder?
    Does one apply for this or does it come automatically? I am jolly glad that I am on a fixed rate until summer 2023.
    Automatic if you are on dd or pay by credit.
    Those on prepay meters have a more complex system of receiving a voucher in the post every month then having to redeem it at a Pay Point.
    It's on electricity not gas.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,713
    edited July 2022
    Most Tory members want Badenoch, Mordaunt, Tugendhat, Wallace and Rees Mogg in the next leader's Cabinet but not Johnson, Dorries or Hunt or Gove
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1552942416231006211?s=20&t=v5rNfYxwHZOCwMrGQ00D-g
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,776

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Javier Blas
    @JavierBlas
    ·
    2h
    COLUMN: The first European country to suffer a blackout this winter? Don't think about Germany -- the problem is likely to be in France.

    Forward electricity markets in France are pricing a dire winter outlook | #EnergyCrisis 🖥️Full
    @opinion
    column here: https://bloomberg.com/opinion/articl

    https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1552904218515750912

    Right now 9.22% of all the electricity being generated in the UK is being exported to France:http://gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

    Never seen anything like it. The companies that can use LNG to generate electricity here must be coining it in.
    Are France actually needing the energy themselves, or are we exporting it to France in order for it to then be re-exported elsewhere that we're not directly connected to like Germany etc?

    I thought France had the highest nuclear baseload in Europe so were most immune to the current crisis, so seems very odd they might be the ones facing blackouts?
    I don't know. Now there's a rare confession on here!

    Actually gridwatch France indicates that 10% of their production is going on to Germany so it appears that they are re-exporting most of it: http://gridwatch.templar.co.uk/france/
    Other way round. 10% is coming from Germany. Some is being sent to Italy, but net France is importing 17.9% of their electricity at the moment.
    You're right. That is very weird. They must have a lot of nuclear offline atm.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    Pulpstar said:

    One thing about an independent Scotland that isn't much discussed, it's wind power generation capacity is > England on an absolubte; and way way way better on a per head basis.
    Independent Scotland would be well set energy wise, whereas it would be a big problem for rUK long term.

    North Sea oil wind.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,282

    Fishing said:

    OT PB's jet set might be interested in the Telegraph's scientifically-determined (awarding points for 36 criteria) list of the top 60 most beautiful countries. (£££)

    In other words they made up 36 numbers for each country, rather than just one. I often meet this thought in the economic and statistical modelling I do professionally - for some reason, making up dozens of numbers and aggregating them seems more robust and professional than just making up one number. Never understood why.

    FWIW I think Switzerland should definitely be in the Top 10.
    Yes, even if some of the numbers (length of coastline, say) are objective, simply adding them up might still be nonsensical. What would adding a man's height to his salary tell us?
    What would be more useful/interesting is working backwards from an objective measure of how popular a country is to visit (number of tourists, say), and then regressing that against other factors - cost, coastline length, castle density, sunshine hours, number of professional orchestras, Koppen climate classification, distance from London, etc, - and seeing which factors were most predictive of tourist numbers.

    Then you might find countries which are anomalous and don't fit the model.
    Can someone who pays for the Torygraph share their top 10 so that we paupers can join in the debate?
    The top 10 was posted by me at 7.37 BST.

    1 USA
    2 Australia
    3 Canada
    4 Japan
    5 Mexico
    6 Norway
    7 New Zealand
    8 India
    9 Italy
    10 Peru

    12 France
    13 Russia
    14 China

    19 United Kingdom

    22 Sweden

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/destinations/best-country-visit-travel-world-holiday-restaurant-things-to-do/ (£££)
    Ah thanks - and sorry, I did not see the earlier post.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,713
    Pulpstar said:

    One thing about an independent Scotland that isn't much discussed, it's wind power generation capacity is > England on an absolubte; and way way way better on a per head basis.
    Independent Scotland would be well set energy wise, whereas it would be a big problem for rUK long term.

    Though without the subsidies from Westminster and of course plenty of scope for wind farms in the Lake District, the Peak District, offshore etc
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    TOPPING said:

    Wowser. Just catching up on the hustings.

    Truss says she is a "keen ice skater".

    I think we all know that that means, don't we.

    That she’ll ditch the penury of the PM salary when the Toronto Maple Leafs stick a juicy NHL contract under her nose?

    https://www.indeed.com/career-advice/pay-salary/nhl-average-salary
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,794
    Pulpstar said:

    One thing about an independent Scotland that isn't much discussed, it's wind power generation capacity is > England on an absolubte; and way way way better on a per head basis.
    Independent Scotland would be well set energy wise, whereas it would be a big problem for rUK long term.

    I don't understand why the SNP don't make more of this. It's the new North Sea oil.

    Otoh, off-shore generation potential is pretty good in England, particularly off Lincolnshire/Yorkshire. A good unionist policy would be to outpace Scotland over the next 10 years or so.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.16 Liz Truss 86%
    7.6 Rishi Sunak 13%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.15 Liz Truss 87%
    7.6 Rishi Sunak 13%

    Truss getting over 70%, currently 14.5, must be value?
    Thanks for flagging. I'm on at 12.5, and have also backed to cover over 65%. Good bet I think.
    65% is more realistic, but it isn't going to be a close contest.

    Barber Boom incoming...
    Both Cameron and Boris got into the 65-70% bracket

    At the moment I'm not seeing what would make Truss drop below that, and even if she does she won't go sub-60% IMHO
    60s seems most likely.

    The short turnaround on most people voting meant that there was little time to change opinions which was a handicap for Rishi, but its probably now actually saving him from falling below 30%. The longer this race is going on, the more one-sided its looking.
    My logic:

    The Yougov poll I saw had it as 62/38 (excluding undecideds - who were 15% of total, with another 6% planning not to vote). So I think that is a pretty reasonable anchor to start from.

    I agree with you that the campaign seems to have gone well for her. I think those undecideds are more likely to go to Truss, nudging her up to the 65% mark, and just plausibly getting her to 70%.

    On the other side - apparently previous surveys overstated Boris' share in his leadership election. Plausible this might have same effect on Liz... since I feel like she is the 'less moderate, more red meat' option this time around -> like Boris. But not convinced entirely by this.

  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    edited July 2022

    eek said:

    Unpopular said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Unpopular said:

    Oooh, I like the idea of hosting it in Edinburgh (not just for selfish reasons, either). Twinned with Kyiv, good bit of money spent in Scotland and the UKGov looks nice... Don't know that there's anywhere in Edinburgh that could host it though.

    It was held in the Usher Hall in 1972...
    Just a quick Google says Usher Hall can hold about 2000, whereas you're probably wanting closer to 10,000 if not more these days. It might be possible to repurpose Murrayfield (it'd have the attendees praying for sun)? But with the Hydro just down the road...
    Brighton having the same conversation - the Dome, which held it in 1974 can only hold 1,700 - so the Amex is being suggested.

    Eurovision nowadays requires a venue of a minimum size of 10,000 and a suitable number of hotel rooms.

    Now there are a number of places that meet the first requirement but very few have enough available hotel rooms - for instance Leeds First Direct Arena hosts 11,500 but hotels are a mare on a normal weeknight let alone were an event to be on..

    I suspect the sane options are Manchester, Birmingham, Glasgow and possibly Liverpool.
    Edinburgh (think hotels used during annual Festival) says Hiya!
    Where is the 10,000 seat indoor venue?????

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_indoor_arenas_in_the_United_Kingdom provides a list of options

    I missed out Newcastle but the Utilita stadium is awful so meh...
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,756
    Pulpstar said:

    One thing about an independent Scotland that isn't much discussed, it's wind power generation capacity is > England on an absolubte; and way way way better on a per head basis.
    Independent Scotland would be well set energy wise, whereas it would be a big problem for rUK long term.

    I wonder why a positive aspect of an indy Scotland isn't much discussed on here?

    Innocent face etc.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    ydoethur said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Let me see if I understand things correctly.... There are credible stories circulating that say:
    - the Prime Minister is in the pay of the KGB
    - the next Prime Minister enjoys being tied up in S&M bondage games
    - the next monarch enjoys being buggered with a strap-on

    How can a Finnish Twitter rumour possibly make things worse???

    The next monarch is pegged by the Prime Minister following a payment made by the KGB watched by the next PM who is running it as a part of an S&M bondage session.

    That's one way it could be worse, without thinking too hard.
    Pay per view or Free to air?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    Scotland is also not short of water.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Javier Blas
    @JavierBlas
    ·
    2h
    COLUMN: The first European country to suffer a blackout this winter? Don't think about Germany -- the problem is likely to be in France.

    Forward electricity markets in France are pricing a dire winter outlook | #EnergyCrisis 🖥️Full
    @opinion
    column here: https://bloomberg.com/opinion/articl

    https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1552904218515750912

    Right now 9.22% of all the electricity being generated in the UK is being exported to France:http://gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

    Never seen anything like it. The companies that can use LNG to generate electricity here must be coining it in.
    Are France actually needing the energy themselves, or are we exporting it to France in order for it to then be re-exported elsewhere that we're not directly connected to like Germany etc?

    I thought France had the highest nuclear baseload in Europe so were most immune to the current crisis, so seems very odd they might be the ones facing blackouts?
    Did I read on here a couple of weeks ago, that French nuclear was lower than usual this year, due to heavy maintainance on a number of facilities?
    Correct. A lot of their nuclear plants are old and are currently being repaired. Hence the issue.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,721

    DavidL said:

    Javier Blas
    @JavierBlas
    ·
    2h
    COLUMN: The first European country to suffer a blackout this winter? Don't think about Germany -- the problem is likely to be in France.

    Forward electricity markets in France are pricing a dire winter outlook | #EnergyCrisis 🖥️Full
    @opinion
    column here: https://bloomberg.com/opinion/articl

    https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1552904218515750912

    Right now 9.22% of all the electricity being generated in the UK is being exported to France:http://gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

    Never seen anything like it. The companies that can use LNG to generate electricity here must be coining it in.
    Are France actually needing the energy themselves, or are we exporting it to France in order for it to then be re-exported elsewhere that we're not directly connected to like Germany etc?

    I thought France had the highest nuclear baseload in Europe so were most immune to the current crisis, so seems very odd they might be the ones facing blackouts?
    Looking here: https://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/france/ suggests that France are importing from almost everyone. 3GW from the UK, 4.5GW from Germany etc. Part of the reason seems to be Nuclear creation is lower than usual (and has been for a while)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    One thing about an independent Scotland that isn't much discussed, it's wind power generation capacity is > England on an absolubte; and way way way better on a per head basis.
    Independent Scotland would be well set energy wise, whereas it would be a big problem for rUK long term.

    Though without the subsidies from Westminster and of course plenty of scope for wind farms in the Lake District, the Peak District, offshore etc
    Hold on, aren't you voting for Sunak with his ban on onshore wind ?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Pulpstar said:

    One thing about an independent Scotland that isn't much discussed, it's wind power generation capacity is > England on an absolubte; and way way way better on a per head basis.
    Independent Scotland would be well set energy wise, whereas it would be a big problem for rUK long term.

    I wonder why a positive aspect of an indy Scotland isn't much discussed on here?

    Innocent face etc.
    England needs Scotland.

    Scotland doesn’t need England.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    eek said:

    Unpopular said:

    kjh said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I reckon Truss is going to win a small majority. Bet accordingly

    Thanks, I’ve just lumped on Starmer as PM after next election
    Truss is plausible, and everybody hates Woke Shit

    That's my thinking

    I reckon the Right could win every election in the West for the next 20 years, if the leaders on the Right aren't insane - thanks to the Woke insanity of the Western Left, and the threat from Fascist Russia, etc

    Only a non-Woke Left can prosper. That is not Starmer; he is Woke but tries to hide it
    Woke issues will take a backseat over the impending cost of living crisis caused by rising energy bills this coming winter. Especially if it’s a cold one.

    Most people don’t care about these work issues. It’s only a small minority on either side of the debate who do.
    Agree 100%. Woke is a significant subset of political correctness which is a subset of jobs worth. We have always had it, although it evolves over time. It is and always has existed in local authorities, government and large corporations. It isn't just a left wing thing, it is a case of not using common sense most of the time. It drives me mad when it affects me. The right might make it an issue but in the grand scheme of things it really isn't. It only seems to be Leon and Casino who really get wound up about it here.
    I agree with this. My own personal theory is that a lot of it, that comes out of meetings particularly, is showing off how deeply someone has thought of an issue.

    To give a non-political example, I was in a fire warden meeting once. Our building hosts an outreach organisation that primarily runs sessions for school pupils. We were discussing interesting stuff about fire safety, people propping open fire doors, leaving stuff in hallways and such like. The topic turned to evacuation plans and routes of egress. All very sensible. Then someone mentioned that a child with poor mobility would be *gasp* venturing onto the second floor of the building. Well, we were off to the races then, as busybody after busybody around the table tried to outdo each other in thinking of the most ridiculous and improbable scenario and what we should do in each. In response to one such scenario the outreach people said 'In that case we would just carry the child,' to which another responded 'But some children don't like to be touched.' The building would be on fire to a degree that the personalised evacuation plan for that child would no longer be possible, I think between being carried and burning to death the child, and child's parents could probably get over it! That took us onto a discussion about whether we should change the fire assembly point for the children further away from the building. 'But what if the wind changes?' Etc etc. It was interesting to watch.

    It is good to think about things comprehensively but you can quickly lose sight of reality and as people begin to outcompete each other the process is then turbo charged. I think at one point someone wanted to forbid the girl in a wheelchair even coming into the building, which, while the sentiment came from a place of concern, would have been absurd and offensive.
    I think between being carried and burning to death the child, and child's parents could probably get over it!

    {The Saudi Religious Police have entered the chat}
    What would the fire brigade do - after all their is a lift which is named after them..

    Give people an issue and they focus on the issue instead of thinking how stupid is this...

    I'm seeing it at the moment when people are looking at a change brought on by law within the industry I do some work in. Every single solution I've so far seen fixes problem A but creates different (even bigger) ones. And the actual answer is to take a step back and look at the situation as a whole at which point a sane answer is incredibly obvious. Only 1 person out of the 20 I've so far spoken to got it without me dropping very big hints...
    Keeping the "solution that creates bigger problems" is how you get to $1 billion dollar launch towers for rockets.

    As you say, the sane response is work the problem tree to avoid the escalating problems. But that requires the ability to reverse. Which is uncommon in many peoples thinking.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840

    TOPPING said:

    Wowser. Just catching up on the hustings.

    Truss says she is a "keen ice skater".

    I think we all know that that means, don't we.

    That she’ll ditch the penury of the PM salary when the Toronto Maple Leafs stick a juicy NHL contract under her nose?

    https://www.indeed.com/career-advice/pay-salary/nhl-average-salary
    I like their 5 step advice to becoming an NHL player there.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Javier Blas
    @JavierBlas
    ·
    2h
    COLUMN: The first European country to suffer a blackout this winter? Don't think about Germany -- the problem is likely to be in France.

    Forward electricity markets in France are pricing a dire winter outlook | #EnergyCrisis 🖥️Full
    @opinion
    column here: https://bloomberg.com/opinion/articl

    https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1552904218515750912

    Right now 9.22% of all the electricity being generated in the UK is being exported to France:http://gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

    Never seen anything like it. The companies that can use LNG to generate electricity here must be coining it in.
    Are France actually needing the energy themselves, or are we exporting it to France in order for it to then be re-exported elsewhere that we're not directly connected to like Germany etc?

    I thought France had the highest nuclear baseload in Europe so were most immune to the current crisis, so seems very odd they might be the ones facing blackouts?
    I don't know. Now there's a rare confession on here!

    Actually gridwatch France indicates that 10% of their production is going on to Germany so it appears that they are re-exporting most of it: http://gridwatch.templar.co.uk/france/
    Other way round. 10% is coming from Germany. Some is being sent to Italy, but net France is importing 17.9% of their electricity at the moment.
    You're right. That is very weird. They must have a lot of nuclear offline atm.
    Current nuclear output is 25GW compared to 40GW last summer. A deficit equal to our wind generation on a very windy day.

    I see that the UK is actually sending electricity to Norway at the moment, presumably so they can save their hydropower for the winter.

    How much electricity do our nuclear subs generate, and how easy would it be to plug them into the grid?

    If the French can't get their nuclear back up I think Europe is in serious trouble over the winter.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    eek said:

    Unpopular said:

    kjh said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I reckon Truss is going to win a small majority. Bet accordingly

    Thanks, I’ve just lumped on Starmer as PM after next election
    Truss is plausible, and everybody hates Woke Shit

    That's my thinking

    I reckon the Right could win every election in the West for the next 20 years, if the leaders on the Right aren't insane - thanks to the Woke insanity of the Western Left, and the threat from Fascist Russia, etc

    Only a non-Woke Left can prosper. That is not Starmer; he is Woke but tries to hide it
    Woke issues will take a backseat over the impending cost of living crisis caused by rising energy bills this coming winter. Especially if it’s a cold one.

    Most people don’t care about these work issues. It’s only a small minority on either side of the debate who do.
    Agree 100%. Woke is a significant subset of political correctness which is a subset of jobs worth. We have always had it, although it evolves over time. It is and always has existed in local authorities, government and large corporations. It isn't just a left wing thing, it is a case of not using common sense most of the time. It drives me mad when it affects me. The right might make it an issue but in the grand scheme of things it really isn't. It only seems to be Leon and Casino who really get wound up about it here.
    I agree with this. My own personal theory is that a lot of it, that comes out of meetings particularly, is showing off how deeply someone has thought of an issue.

    To give a non-political example, I was in a fire warden meeting once. Our building hosts an outreach organisation that primarily runs sessions for school pupils. We were discussing interesting stuff about fire safety, people propping open fire doors, leaving stuff in hallways and such like. The topic turned to evacuation plans and routes of egress. All very sensible. Then someone mentioned that a child with poor mobility would be *gasp* venturing onto the second floor of the building. Well, we were off to the races then, as busybody after busybody around the table tried to outdo each other in thinking of the most ridiculous and improbable scenario and what we should do in each. In response to one such scenario the outreach people said 'In that case we would just carry the child,' to which another responded 'But some children don't like to be touched.' The building would be on fire to a degree that the personalised evacuation plan for that child would no longer be possible, I think between being carried and burning to death the child, and child's parents could probably get over it! That took us onto a discussion about whether we should change the fire assembly point for the children further away from the building. 'But what if the wind changes?' Etc etc. It was interesting to watch.

    It is good to think about things comprehensively but you can quickly lose sight of reality and as people begin to outcompete each other the process is then turbo charged. I think at one point someone wanted to forbid the girl in a wheelchair even coming into the building, which, while the sentiment came from a place of concern, would have been absurd and offensive.
    I think between being carried and burning to death the child, and child's parents could probably get over it!

    {The Saudi Religious Police have entered the chat}
    What would the fire brigade do - after all their is a lift which is named after them..

    Give people an issue and they focus on the issue instead of thinking how stupid is this...

    I'm seeing it at the moment when people are looking at a change brought on by law within the industry I do some work in. Every single solution I've so far seen fixes problem A but creates different (even bigger) ones. And the actual answer is to take a step back and look at the situation as a whole at which point a sane answer is incredibly obvious. Only 1 person out of the 20 I've so far spoken to got it without me dropping very big hints...
    Keeping the "solution that creates bigger problems" is how you get to $1 billion dollar launch towers for rockets.

    As you say, the sane response is work the problem tree to avoid the escalating problems. But that requires the ability to reverse. Which is uncommon in many peoples thinking.
    Yep - it's hilarious at the moment - the solution is incredibly obvious but everyone is suggesting bodges that keep the current status quo...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Javier Blas
    @JavierBlas
    ·
    2h
    COLUMN: The first European country to suffer a blackout this winter? Don't think about Germany -- the problem is likely to be in France.

    Forward electricity markets in France are pricing a dire winter outlook | #EnergyCrisis 🖥️Full
    @opinion
    column here: https://bloomberg.com/opinion/articl

    https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1552904218515750912

    Right now 9.22% of all the electricity being generated in the UK is being exported to France:http://gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

    Never seen anything like it. The companies that can use LNG to generate electricity here must be coining it in.
    Are France actually needing the energy themselves, or are we exporting it to France in order for it to then be re-exported elsewhere that we're not directly connected to like Germany etc?

    I thought France had the highest nuclear baseload in Europe so were most immune to the current crisis, so seems very odd they might be the ones facing blackouts?
    I don't know. Now there's a rare confession on here!

    Actually gridwatch France indicates that 10% of their production is going on to Germany so it appears that they are re-exporting most of it: http://gridwatch.templar.co.uk/france/
    Other way round. 10% is coming from Germany. Some is being sent to Italy, but net France is importing 17.9% of their electricity at the moment.
    You're right. That is very weird. They must have a lot of nuclear offline atm.
    I believe that they have the problem that a lot of their nuclear reactors were built around the same time and haven't been replaced - so they are growing old together.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited July 2022

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Javier Blas
    @JavierBlas
    ·
    2h
    COLUMN: The first European country to suffer a blackout this winter? Don't think about Germany -- the problem is likely to be in France.

    Forward electricity markets in France are pricing a dire winter outlook | #EnergyCrisis 🖥️Full
    @opinion
    column here: https://bloomberg.com/opinion/articl

    https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1552904218515750912

    Right now 9.22% of all the electricity being generated in the UK is being exported to France:http://gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

    Never seen anything like it. The companies that can use LNG to generate electricity here must be coining it in.
    Are France actually needing the energy themselves, or are we exporting it to France in order for it to then be re-exported elsewhere that we're not directly connected to like Germany etc?

    I thought France had the highest nuclear baseload in Europe so were most immune to the current crisis, so seems very odd they might be the ones facing blackouts?
    I don't know. Now there's a rare confession on here!

    Actually gridwatch France indicates that 10% of their production is going on to Germany so it appears that they are re-exporting most of it: http://gridwatch.templar.co.uk/france/
    Other way round. 10% is coming from Germany. Some is being sent to Italy, but net France is importing 17.9% of their electricity at the moment.
    You're right. That is very weird. They must have a lot of nuclear offline atm.
    Current nuclear output is 25GW compared to 40GW last summer. A deficit equal to our wind generation on a very windy day.

    I see that the UK is actually sending electricity to Norway at the moment, presumably so they can save their hydropower for the winter.

    How much electricity do our nuclear subs generate, and how easy would it be to plug them into the grid?

    If the French can't get their nuclear back up I think Europe is in serious trouble over the winter.
    Norway's leccy energy is ~ 99% hydro, the lucky sods. Seems a bit weird we're exporting to them whilst our internal generation is 58% CCGT though with the price of gas and all.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    dixiedean said:

    Cyclefree said:

    dixiedean said:

    MattW said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Cookie said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    I just watched Truss do the Q&A at the hustings

    A remarkable transformation. She is the real deal. She has the empathy and cleverness to win the next election for the Tories (barring a scandal)

    Somehow, not by merit, purely by luck, the Tories have unearthed a star. She espouses rightwing beliefs with humanity and humour. Starmer might easily struggle against her - a younger and articulate woman. Fascinating

    She seems to have really grown into this as it has gone on.

    She’s refusing to do an interview with Andrew Neil, but she doesn’t need to. She’s pretty much got an unassailable lead now. She has little to gain from it.

    Her big challenge is the cost of living crisis especially rising energy prices which will really have an impact and people are really getting worried about.
    Quite a lot of people have children. Quite a lot of those are increasingly worried about the power the like of Tavistock have. People threatening to mess with your kids is a bigger issue than the cost of living.
    If you have a child 0-10, perhaps.

    But in aggregate, across the whole population? The energy crisis affects everyone. Trans, straight, gay, Scotland, England, young, old, renters, homeowners.

    Including me, as it happens. I fucked up and waited too long to move to my new tariff. Ouch.
    We are on a fixed tariff until December this year. Currently paying £100 a month. It is a gift and a curse. We are going to get hit very badly. If I can get a reasonable fixed tariff just before the fixed ends then I may do it.

    We are currently expected, post October cap, to see it go up to £350 a month. It will hurt us but we are lucky as we can afford it. In practical terms it means one or two nights out a month less than current. But for many people they will be crucified and wholesale gas prices are up yet again today.

    If this is not tackled then there will be civil unrest and people on the street.
    It's the standing charge increase that annoys me. Where's the incentive to reduce demand? I live in a tiny flat, don't use much energy, but still get hit by that.
    A hard-nosed analysis could say that since you are a low user there's no demand to reduce, so no value in incentivizing it for you.

    In reality, for each unit of elec you avoid using, you save yourself 28p or so, which is quite the incentive.

    On the standing charge, the increase is mainly to pay for increased regulatory costs associated with moving so many customers from bust companies, and similar. So is actually a fixed cost and spread across the board. There's no convincing reason why that should be a per-usage charge afaics.

    Plus I expect it should reduce again in the future, and if it was rolled into say +5p per elec unit that would be more tricky to unwind.
    Just seen the details of the energy support scheme. £66 per month credited to my account for six months over the winter. That's going to put me into credit. Which won't be easy to get back. Should I just cancel my direct debit for the duration I wonder?
    Does one apply for this or does it come automatically? I am jolly glad that I am on a fixed rate until summer 2023.
    Automatic if you are on dd or pay by credit.
    Those on prepay meters have a more complex system of receiving a voucher in the post every month then having to redeem it at a Pay Point.
    It's on electricity not gas.
    Thank you.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,756
    tlg86 said:

    Scotland is also not short of water.

    More water in Loch Ness alone than in all E&W's lakes, rivers and reservoirs I believe..
    Been pishing down in Glasgow every 2nd or 3rd day for the last 2 weeks, no drought talk up here.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    tlg86 said:

    Scotland is also not short of water.

    Indeed. A factor which will become increasingly important as the Sahara and Sahel move northwards.

    Wet countries are going to be havens for humanity. Norway’s second incredible windfall. Will Scots piss this one up the wall by simply handing over our valuable resources to England again?
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Javier Blas
    @JavierBlas
    ·
    2h
    COLUMN: The first European country to suffer a blackout this winter? Don't think about Germany -- the problem is likely to be in France.

    Forward electricity markets in France are pricing a dire winter outlook | #EnergyCrisis 🖥️Full
    @opinion
    column here: https://bloomberg.com/opinion/articl

    https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1552904218515750912

    Right now 9.22% of all the electricity being generated in the UK is being exported to France:http://gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

    Never seen anything like it. The companies that can use LNG to generate electricity here must be coining it in.
    Are France actually needing the energy themselves, or are we exporting it to France in order for it to then be re-exported elsewhere that we're not directly connected to like Germany etc?

    I thought France had the highest nuclear baseload in Europe so were most immune to the current crisis, so seems very odd they might be the ones facing blackouts?
    I don't know. Now there's a rare confession on here!

    Actually gridwatch France indicates that 10% of their production is going on to Germany so it appears that they are re-exporting most of it: http://gridwatch.templar.co.uk/france/
    Other way round. 10% is coming from Germany. Some is being sent to Italy, but net France is importing 17.9% of their electricity at the moment.
    You're right. That is very weird. They must have a lot of nuclear offline atm.
    Current nuclear output is 25GW compared to 40GW last summer. A deficit equal to our wind generation on a very windy day.

    I see that the UK is actually sending electricity to Norway at the moment, presumably so they can save their hydropower for the winter.

    How much electricity do our nuclear subs generate, and how easy would it be to plug them into the grid?

    If the French can't get their nuclear back up I think Europe is in serious trouble over the winter.
    I wasn't aware of this until today, I'm surprised it hasn't gotten more awareness. That's a crisis comparable to the effects of the war if that can't come back online.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,467
    edited July 2022

    kjh said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I reckon Truss is going to win a small majority. Bet accordingly

    Thanks, I’ve just lumped on Starmer as PM after next election
    Truss is plausible, and everybody hates Woke Shit

    That's my thinking

    I reckon the Right could win every election in the West for the next 20 years, if the leaders on the Right aren't insane - thanks to the Woke insanity of the Western Left, and the threat from Fascist Russia, etc

    Only a non-Woke Left can prosper. That is not Starmer; he is Woke but tries to hide it
    Woke issues will take a backseat over the impending cost of living crisis caused by rising energy bills this coming winter. Especially if it’s a cold one.

    Most people don’t care about these work issues. It’s only a small minority on either side of the debate who do.
    Agree 100%. Woke is a significant subset of political correctness which is a subset of jobs worth. We have always had it, although it evolves over time. It is and always has existed in local authorities, government and large corporations. It isn't just a left wing thing, it is a case of not using common sense most of the time. It drives me mad when it affects me. The right might make it an issue but in the grand scheme of things it really isn't. It only seems to be Leon and Casino who really get wound up about it here.
    I get wound up because it directly affected my career and my employment at my previous firm, leading to me leaving, and I see trends across broader society that are becoming increasingly dogmatic and divisive, as opposed to inclusive, with the consequence that people are ceasing to think, or even fearing to think, to put up a resistance to it - with the ultimate unchecked consequence that would end up pulling down everything around us.

    That's why I go on about it.

    There are signs of some sanity starting to emerge. That hasn't happened naturally. It's down to a few brave souls sticking their necks out and checking it.
    I appreciate that @Casino_Royale and I remember you saying it at the time and when it has personal consequences that aren't just trivial and annoying, but actually affect your life dramatically it is a different kettle of fish.

    My two favorites weren't woke but jobs worth and both had a trivial impact on me (one was a parking fine, the other caused me to be late). At the time I just wanted to punch the person I was dealing with in the face for being so stupid. One was so stupid it was worth it for the entertainment value in retelling the story umpteen times. In both cases it was a case of 'I know the rules in this instance are idiotic, but rules are rules'.
This discussion has been closed.