Russia’s ambassador to Ireland has welcomed the intervention of Sabina Higgins, wife of President Michael D Higgins, who has called for a negotiated settlement to the war in Ukraine.
Yuriy Filatov warned continued support for Ukraine will only mean more Ukrainian deaths
"Until the world persuades President Vladimir Putin of Russia and President Volodymyr Zelenskiy of Ukraine to agree to a ceasefire and negotiations, the long haul of terrible war will go on. How can there be any winner?"
So if that was 1,000 deported in his first year and he stayed as PM for 10 years he would need to deport 512,000 in his last year.....
I wonder by what methods he'll encourage an increase and scaling up of crimes in order to be able to have enough people to deport?
Covid fraud. He has already made a start. But of course, Rishi did not actually mean the number would double each year, even if the ambiguous phrasing was deliberate.
"Most parts of England have not had drought measures implemented for move [sic] than a decade."
Maybe it's a false memory, but I seem to remember hosepipe bans being very common not too long ago, and happening earlier in the summer than this. Am I imagining it?
Winter plays a big role in summer drought. February 'fill dyke' is common winter lore. If you have blocked, anticylconic winters (dry and coldish) then the start the summer with lower than optimum aquifers. Recent winters have tended to be more of the westerly driven warm and wet flavour, and hence fewer issues later in the year.
"Berlin monuments fall dark to save energy The city of Berlin started switching off spotlights illuminating its historic monuments as part of a national effort to save energy in the face of Russian gas shortages."
Could be mid term blues I guess, but food for thought for those wanting to bet on Biden running.
The Democrats will quickly fall into line if he runs. Long term Serious challengers such as Buttigieg have plenty of time on their side for a 2028 run. The current buzz seems to be around Newsom running, I reckon Biden will absolubtely tonk Newsom if he goes for it.
One thing about an independent Scotland that isn't much discussed, it's wind power generation capacity is > England on an absolubte; and way way way better on a per head basis. Independent Scotland would be well set energy wise, whereas it would be a big problem for rUK long term.
I wonder why a positive aspect of an indy Scotland isn't much discussed on here?
Innocent face etc.
Hmmm. A little simplistic imo. Capacity: In *resource* terms perhaps capacity is greater (numbers not to hand). In installed capacity terms - no. On a per-head basis - yes.
I think a cross-Europe market works better, as we have now. Not sure what would happen to the market after Sindy cut itself off - UK pays market prices on interconnectors, not with added subsidies.
And Scotland currently gets a far larger share of renewable subsidies than it's population would merit. Where would this be funded from?
Indy Scotland - not very clear; what would Sindy do with it? For export, there'd either be 10s of billions to invest in new interconnectors, or transmission fees to pay. It would need a serious piece of work to determine.
I suspect that the data adjusts somewhat as costs reduce. How - not sure, but probably enough to change some of the balances.
@Theuniondivvie I don't understand why the SNP don't make more of it?
People talk about the lack of "positive case for the Union", but the SNP line is usually just complaining about stuff UK Gov is doing, the Tories, Johnson etc.
Let's hear the positive case for independence more. Wind potential is an obvious one.
I think that last comment is a good one, and I'd make three points:
1 - One message has been about alleged extra costs to connect to the grid as anti-Scottish. My suggestion is that National Grid would work on most cost-effective for the consumer, and would see connection costs as part of the overall scheme. You'll see that kind of argumentation from, eg, Business for Scotland - try this piece for their current mix: https://www.businessforscotland.com/new-figures-show-scotland-is-leading-the-renewable-energy-revolution/
2 - There has been a bit of a propaganda war, as will all aspects of Sindy. And a lot of stuff got rather debunked.
3 - I really don't know where the overall cost balance is now, as the market has been reformed. Nor have I seen proposals for how FITs and large generator subsidies would work in Sindy.
"Most parts of England have not had drought measures implemented for move [sic] than a decade."
Maybe it's a false memory, but I seem to remember hosepipe bans being very common not too long ago, and happening earlier in the summer than this. Am I imagining it?
Winter plays a big role in summer drought. February 'fill dyke' is common winter lore. If you have blocked, anticylconic winters (dry and coldish) then the start the summer with lower than optimum aquifers. Recent winters have tended to be more of the westerly driven warm and wet flavour, and hence fewer issues later in the year.
Drought shouldn't be an issue with properly managed water supplies long term. Warmer climate = More energy = more rain basically.
Russia’s ambassador to Ireland has welcomed the intervention of Sabina Higgins, wife of President Michael D Higgins, who has called for a negotiated settlement to the war in Ukraine.
Yuriy Filatov warned continued support for Ukraine will only mean more Ukrainian deaths
"Until the world persuades President Vladimir Putin of Russia and President Volodymyr Zelenskiy of Ukraine to agree to a ceasefire and negotiations, the long haul of terrible war will go on. How can there be any winner?"
Russia’s ambassador to Ireland has welcomed the intervention of Sabina Higgins, wife of President Michael D Higgins, who has called for a negotiated settlement to the war in Ukraine.
Yuriy Filatov warned continued support for Ukraine will only mean more Ukrainian deaths
"Until the world persuades President Vladimir Putin of Russia and President Volodymyr Zelenskiy of Ukraine to agree to a ceasefire and negotiations, the long haul of terrible war will go on. How can there be any winner?"
One thing about an independent Scotland that isn't much discussed, it's wind power generation capacity is > England on an absolubte; and way way way better on a per head basis. Independent Scotland would be well set energy wise, whereas it would be a big problem for rUK long term.
I wonder why a positive aspect of an indy Scotland isn't much discussed on here?
Innocent face etc.
England needs Scotland.
Scotland doesn’t need England.
Not convinced by this on anything other than water. I think England has enough off-shore energy potential. Lucky the North Sea is so shallow.
There's more than enough potential for offshore wind for everyone in the British Isles - and distributed around the coasts.
Even just replacing the existing sites with bigger (and more efficient turbines) in a few years would double output. But you don't need to do that, since you can expand the existing sites hugely and there are many more potential sites.
How many times more generating capability than the current consumption of the entire grid do you want?
Well, given energy costs feed into pretty much everything, keep going till it's not economical to keep putting them in?
From an Indy perspective, there is no-doubt that Scotland can produce more per capita. But that won't matter if rUK is already self-sufficient.
It would depend on how the market would work. Would Scotland sell the energy to England, and then England to Europe? Could Scotland sell direct via that new artificial island they are going to build in the middle of the North Sea?
There's already an interconnector between Norway and Scotland.
Russia’s ambassador to Ireland has welcomed the intervention of Sabina Higgins, wife of President Michael D Higgins, who has called for a negotiated settlement to the war in Ukraine.
Yuriy Filatov warned continued support for Ukraine will only mean more Ukrainian deaths
"Until the world persuades President Vladimir Putin of Russia and President Volodymyr Zelenskiy of Ukraine to agree to a ceasefire and negotiations, the long haul of terrible war will go on. How can there be any winner?"
"Most parts of England have not had drought measures implemented for move [sic] than a decade."
Maybe it's a false memory, but I seem to remember hosepipe bans being very common not too long ago, and happening earlier in the summer than this. Am I imagining it?
Winter plays a big role in summer drought. February 'fill dyke' is common winter lore. If you have blocked, anticylconic winters (dry and coldish) then the start the summer with lower than optimum aquifers. Recent winters have tended to be more of the westerly driven warm and wet flavour, and hence fewer issues later in the year.
Drought shouldn't be an issue with properly managed water supplies long term. Warmer climate = More energy = more rain basically.
I think we've started to see this already with a lack of drought in more recent years.
"Most parts of England have not had drought measures implemented for move [sic] than a decade."
Maybe it's a false memory, but I seem to remember hosepipe bans being very common not too long ago, and happening earlier in the summer than this. Am I imagining it?
Winter plays a big role in summer drought. February 'fill dyke' is common winter lore. If you have blocked, anticylconic winters (dry and coldish) then the start the summer with lower than optimum aquifers. Recent winters have tended to be more of the westerly driven warm and wet flavour, and hence fewer issues later in the year.
Drought shouldn't be an issue with properly managed water supplies long term. Warmer climate = More energy = more rain basically.
I think we've started to see this already with a lack of drought in more recent years.
Well, except 2018, and now. Both seriously dry. We are also getting very dry springs.
Russia’s ambassador to Ireland has welcomed the intervention of Sabina Higgins, wife of President Michael D Higgins, who has called for a negotiated settlement to the war in Ukraine.
Yuriy Filatov warned continued support for Ukraine will only mean more Ukrainian deaths
"Until the world persuades President Vladimir Putin of Russia and President Volodymyr Zelenskiy of Ukraine to agree to a ceasefire and negotiations, the long haul of terrible war will go on. How can there be any winner?"
As horrible as it is for Ukraine, it's in all of our interests that Russia loses even if Ukraine doesn't look much like the winner.
That's the worst thing about this - Russia needs to be stopped as otherwise they will just wait a few years and then "expand" a bit further.
Yep. Idiots like Higgins think this is like any other horrible conflict that is restricted to the parties involved. It isn't. Peace is no one's interest until Russia has been humiliated and sent packing with its tail between it's legs.
Only two by-elections, so not much movement. Good win (defending) for Labour in Derbyshire, not much happening in Colchester, although the LibDems seemed pretty confident in the latter last night on social media, so probably a disappointment for them
Not to take away from an otherwise excellent month for the Lib Dems but there were 400 green votes up for grabs in Colchester as they didn't stand and Labour went backwards so the LDs failing to make any impression or inroad was a pretty tepid effort. That being said, the way they are monstering the Tories in Surrey, the south coast and the SW I think they can probably settle for things overall! We are getting pretty close to DefCon 'LD local mojo is back'
Russia’s ambassador to Ireland has welcomed the intervention of Sabina Higgins, wife of President Michael D Higgins, who has called for a negotiated settlement to the war in Ukraine.
Yuriy Filatov warned continued support for Ukraine will only mean more Ukrainian deaths
"Until the world persuades President Vladimir Putin of Russia and President Volodymyr Zelenskiy of Ukraine to agree to a ceasefire and negotiations, the long haul of terrible war will go on. How can there be any winner?"
Russia’s ambassador to Ireland has welcomed the intervention of Sabina Higgins, wife of President Michael D Higgins, who has called for a negotiated settlement to the war in Ukraine.
Yuriy Filatov warned continued support for Ukraine will only mean more Ukrainian deaths
"Until the world persuades President Vladimir Putin of Russia and President Volodymyr Zelenskiy of Ukraine to agree to a ceasefire and negotiations, the long haul of terrible war will go on. How can there be any winner?"
As horrible as it is for Ukraine, it's in all of our interests that Russia loses even if Ukraine doesn't look much like the winner.
That's the worst thing about this - Russia needs to be stopped as otherwise they will just wait a few years and then "expand" a bit further.
Yep. Idiots like Higgins think this is like any other horrible conflict that is restricted to the parties involved. It isn't. Peace is no one's interest until Russia has been humiliated and sent packing with its tail between it's legs.
What about the Wagner Groups contributions to trans? Just when the U.K. is shutting its trans clinic as well?
What about giving a chunk of Southern Ireland to Russia in exchange for peace?
Russia’s ambassador to Ireland has welcomed the intervention of Sabina Higgins, wife of President Michael D Higgins, who has called for a negotiated settlement to the war in Ukraine.
Yuriy Filatov warned continued support for Ukraine will only mean more Ukrainian deaths
"Until the world persuades President Vladimir Putin of Russia and President Volodymyr Zelenskiy of Ukraine to agree to a ceasefire and negotiations, the long haul of terrible war will go on. How can there be any winner?"
Seems reasonable. The terms of Russian withdrawal and reparations for the damage done, and returning of all Ukranian deported to Ukraine all need some negotiations.
ComRes buck the recent trend and shove the Tories back under 30 in the Independent 42 Lab 29 Con 12 LD Fieldwork 23 to 24 July Out of line with the others recently but a klaxon for the Tories
One thing about an independent Scotland that isn't much discussed, it's wind power generation capacity is > England on an absolubte; and way way way better on a per head basis. Independent Scotland would be well set energy wise, whereas it would be a big problem for rUK long term.
I wonder why a positive aspect of an indy Scotland isn't much discussed on here?
Innocent face etc.
England needs Scotland.
Scotland doesn’t need England.
Not convinced by this on anything other than water. I think England has enough off-shore energy potential. Lucky the North Sea is so shallow.
There's more than enough potential for offshore wind for everyone in the British Isles - and distributed around the coasts.
Even just replacing the existing sites with bigger (and more efficient turbines) in a few years would double output. But you don't need to do that, since you can expand the existing sites hugely and there are many more potential sites.
How many times more generating capability than the current consumption of the entire grid do you want?
Well, given energy costs feed into pretty much everything, keep going till it's not economical to keep putting them in?
From an Indy perspective, there is no-doubt that Scotland can produce more per capita. But that won't matter if rUK is already self-sufficient.
It would depend on how the market would work. Would Scotland sell the energy to England, and then England to Europe? Could Scotland sell direct via that new artificial island they are going to build in the middle of the North Sea?
There's already an interconnector between Norway and Scotland.
I thought that was due in a few years.
North Sea Link is Norway to Blyth. Opened in Oct 2021. North Connect is Norway to Peterhead, nominally due in 2025 - which the Norwegian Govt are currently hemming and hawing about pending how North Sea Link performs *?
* currently nearly all the time importing into UK from Norway.
Mass murder of Ukrainian PoWs in Olenivka is an attempt to destroy evidence of Russian war crimes. The filtration camp was used to torture and execute Ukrainian PoWs including the defenders of Mariupol.
Only two by-elections, so not much movement. Good win (defending) for Labour in Derbyshire, not much happening in Colchester, although the LibDems seemed pretty confident in the latter last night on social media, so probably a disappointment for them
Can I ask how these numbers are calculated and what they actually mean?
The Good Week/Bad Week Index (GWBWI)
The Aim:
To create a mathematically calculated index to assess each major party’s performance in the week’s council by-elections; taking out subjective views, party spin, and expectations management; and relying only on information that is consistently available for all by elections.
Nearly every week, there are a handful of by-elections to vacant council seats. Some seats are held by the defending party, some are lost to a challenger. It should be easy to determine, across the weekly results, who has done well and who badly, but when the observers and prospective interpreters of results have an interest in portraying their own side positively and the opposition negatively, it can be a bit murky to sift the various interpretations to decide where the truth lies.
By basing an algorithm on a standard set of quantitative data available for all by-elections, each result will yield a numerical value for each party’s performance which can be aggregated to assess the weekly performance.
Base Data
Four known pieces of information are used to provide a base figure to determine how ‘important’ the by-election is to each party. The first item is common to all parties:
Council Majority – How close to a majority is the largest party
The remaining three items are calculated separately for each party: Party Size – How close is the party to a council majority, or to having 0 councillors on the authority Vote Share – What is the party’s historic vote share Past Elections – What history does the party have in the ward
Note that only normally scheduled elections are included in the base data: by-elections are strange beasts, so any previous by-elections in the ward are disregarded.
Russia’s ambassador to Ireland has welcomed the intervention of Sabina Higgins, wife of President Michael D Higgins, who has called for a negotiated settlement to the war in Ukraine.
Yuriy Filatov warned continued support for Ukraine will only mean more Ukrainian deaths
"Until the world persuades President Vladimir Putin of Russia and President Volodymyr Zelenskiy of Ukraine to agree to a ceasefire and negotiations, the long haul of terrible war will go on. How can there be any winner?"
Seems reasonable. The terms of Russian withdrawal and reparations for the damage done, and returning of all Ukranian deported to Ukraine all need some negotiations.
It is for the Ukranians to decide.
But that's not what she thinks. She thinks we should do what we can to get Ukraine to negotiate a settlement for the sake of peace.
Russia’s ambassador to Ireland has welcomed the intervention of Sabina Higgins, wife of President Michael D Higgins, who has called for a negotiated settlement to the war in Ukraine.
Yuriy Filatov warned continued support for Ukraine will only mean more Ukrainian deaths
"Until the world persuades President Vladimir Putin of Russia and President Volodymyr Zelenskiy of Ukraine to agree to a ceasefire and negotiations, the long haul of terrible war will go on. How can there be any winner?"
Seems reasonable. The terms of Russian withdrawal and reparations for the damage done, and returning of all Ukranian deported to Ukraine all need some negotiations.
It is for the Ukranians to decide.
If that’s what she’s saying, then why are the Russians so happy about her comments?
She wants the Ukranians to sue for peace, and concede vast amounts of their own country that they are expending lives defending.
So if that was 1,000 deported in his first year and he stayed as PM for 10 years he would need to deport 512,000 in his last year.....
I wonder by what methods he'll encourage an increase and scaling up of crimes in order to be able to have enough people to deport?
Assuming of course that anybody 'official' knows where they are!
And good morning all; bit late this morning but it's been an exciting morning. Had some new furniture delivered which will enable two elderly people to get up from their chairs without struggling!
Thanks - saw that on the last thread. Think he missed the quality of the rocket motors - large, high power density, reliable, consistent solid fuelled rockets are hi-tech.
Russia’s ambassador to Ireland has welcomed the intervention of Sabina Higgins, wife of President Michael D Higgins, who has called for a negotiated settlement to the war in Ukraine.
Yuriy Filatov warned continued support for Ukraine will only mean more Ukrainian deaths
"Until the world persuades President Vladimir Putin of Russia and President Volodymyr Zelenskiy of Ukraine to agree to a ceasefire and negotiations, the long haul of terrible war will go on. How can there be any winner?"
Seems reasonable. The terms of Russian withdrawal and reparations for the damage done, and returning of all Ukranian deported to Ukraine all need some negotiations.
It is for the Ukranians to decide.
If that’s what she’s saying, then why are the Russians so happy about her comments?
She wants the Ukranians to sue for peace, and concede vast amounts of their own country that they are expending lives defending.
... only for Russia to attack them again next year and maybe again the year after that.
Putin is a classic serial killer - he doesn't stop until he's stopped.
One thing about an independent Scotland that isn't much discussed, it's wind power generation capacity is > England on an absolubte; and way way way better on a per head basis. Independent Scotland would be well set energy wise, whereas it would be a big problem for rUK long term.
I wonder why a positive aspect of an indy Scotland isn't much discussed on here?
Innocent face etc.
England needs Scotland.
Scotland doesn’t need England.
Not convinced by this on anything other than water. I think England has enough off-shore energy potential. Lucky the North Sea is so shallow.
There's more than enough potential for offshore wind for everyone in the British Isles - and distributed around the coasts.
Even just replacing the existing sites with bigger (and more efficient turbines) in a few years would double output. But you don't need to do that, since you can expand the existing sites hugely and there are many more potential sites.
How many times more generating capability than the current consumption of the entire grid do you want?
Well, given energy costs feed into pretty much everything, keep going till it's not economical to keep putting them in?
From an Indy perspective, there is no-doubt that Scotland can produce more per capita. But that won't matter if rUK is already self-sufficient.
It would depend on how the market would work. Would Scotland sell the energy to England, and then England to Europe? Could Scotland sell direct via that new artificial island they are going to build in the middle of the North Sea?
There's already an interconnector between Norway and Scotland.
I thought that was due in a few years.
North Sea Link is Norway to Blyth. Opened in Oct 2021. North Connect is Norway to Peterhead, nominally due in 2025 - which the Norwegian Govt are currently hemming and hawing about pending how North Sea Link performs *?
* currently nearly all the time importing into UK from Norway.
I stand corrected. I imagine HMG will be trying to overcome Norwegian humming and hawing to expedite all possible methods of energy import.
ComRes buck the recent trend and shove the Tories back under 30 in the Independent 42 Lab 29 Con 12 LD Fieldwork 23 to 24 July Out of line with the others recently but a klaxon for the Tories
Already posted that.
Keir Starmer is popular with the voters Labour needs and Truss is unpopular with the voters the Tories need. Truss needs to do something about that.
Russia’s ambassador to Ireland has welcomed the intervention of Sabina Higgins, wife of President Michael D Higgins, who has called for a negotiated settlement to the war in Ukraine.
Yuriy Filatov warned continued support for Ukraine will only mean more Ukrainian deaths
"Until the world persuades President Vladimir Putin of Russia and President Volodymyr Zelenskiy of Ukraine to agree to a ceasefire and negotiations, the long haul of terrible war will go on. How can there be any winner?"
Seems reasonable. The terms of Russian withdrawal and reparations for the damage done, and returning of all Ukranian deported to Ukraine all need some negotiations.
It is for the Ukranians to decide.
If that’s what she’s saying, then why are the Russians so happy about her comments?
She wants the Ukranians to sue for peace, and concede vast amounts of their own country that they are expending lives defending.
... only for Russia to attack them again next year and maybe again the year after that.
There's a reason why the Russians want to drain the cooling ponds at the nuclear power station(s) they are occupying. The old fuel rods in there are down to nearly no Pu-240. Just lots and lots of Pu-239. Just ripe for some chemistry. The Russians know what they would do in the Ukrainians position.....
Bit like the Germans in 1914 wanting to try and cripple France - for the *next* war.
A while back, someone posted some stuff from electronic messages between Russians in Crimea - they are fully expecting revenge on a massive scale from the Ukrainians, if they ever get there. And talking about getting out before the bridges go....
Thanks - saw that on the last thread. Think he missed the quality of the rocket motors - large, high power density, reliable, consistent solid fuelled rockets are hi-tech.
Ah, glad someone caught it.
Not being part of the engineering world it seems bizarre that the system works. So many modules, bits of electronics, external data streams, chunks of software. And like you say some actual chemistry (I like the thermal battery idea a little too much),
So if that was 1,000 deported in his first year and he stayed as PM for 10 years he would need to deport 512,000 in his last year.....
Has he mentioned how he is planning to do this? Presumably massive expansion of immigration couts, detention centres etc??
Just what we are crying out for, more kids growing up without a father or breadwinner after dad is deported from the country he came to as a baby for some minor offense. Performative cruelty really is all these scumbags have left.
One thing about an independent Scotland that isn't much discussed, it's wind power generation capacity is > England on an absolubte; and way way way better on a per head basis. Independent Scotland would be well set energy wise, whereas it would be a big problem for rUK long term.
I wonder why a positive aspect of an indy Scotland isn't much discussed on here?
Innocent face etc.
England needs Scotland.
Scotland doesn’t need England.
Not convinced by this on anything other than water. I think England has enough off-shore energy potential. Lucky the North Sea is so shallow.
There's more than enough potential for offshore wind for everyone in the British Isles - and distributed around the coasts.
Even just replacing the existing sites with bigger (and more efficient turbines) in a few years would double output. But you don't need to do that, since you can expand the existing sites hugely and there are many more potential sites.
How many times more generating capability than the current consumption of the entire grid do you want?
Well, given energy costs feed into pretty much everything, keep going till it's not economical to keep putting them in?
From an Indy perspective, there is no-doubt that Scotland can produce more per capita. But that won't matter if rUK is already self-sufficient.
It would depend on how the market would work. Would Scotland sell the energy to England, and then England to Europe? Could Scotland sell direct via that new artificial island they are going to build in the middle of the North Sea?
There's already an interconnector between Norway and Scotland.
I thought that was due in a few years.
North Sea Link is Norway to Blyth. Opened in Oct 2021. North Connect is Norway to Peterhead, nominally due in 2025 - which the Norwegian Govt are currently hemming and hawing about pending how North Sea Link performs *?
* currently nearly all the time importing into UK from Norway.
I stand corrected. I imagine HMG will be trying to overcome Norwegian humming and hawing to expedite all possible methods of energy import.
I presume the RN have a plan if the Russians go for these cables?
Only two by-elections, so not much movement. Good win (defending) for Labour in Derbyshire, not much happening in Colchester, although the LibDems seemed pretty confident in the latter last night on social media, so probably a disappointment for them
Tories blamed LD for building houses. Nimbyism pays off.
Well LDs play the NIMBY card across the Home counties v Tory councils and also did in Chesham and Amersham
On topic, I'd strongly challenge Mike's blithe assertion that the nomination is Biden's for the taking.
Actually, should he run, this has 1968 written all over it in letters a mile high.
A fairly unpopular President, whose campaigning skills are hampered by age and infirmity. A youthful and boisterous progressive wing. Ambitious moderates who fear the progressives jumping the queue.
This screams LBJ, Eugene McCarthy, Bobby Kennedy, Hubert Humphrey.
A recent New Hampshire poll showed Biden in the low teens as preferred Democrat candidate (second to Buttigieg but essentially a blanket result). Even more importantly, he was nowhere as second choice. Democrats are looking for someone other than the President.
Mark my words - if Biden stands, someone will do a McCarthy on him. Possibly from the left, but possibly a late middle aged man in a hurry like Cory Booker. Biden will struggle with the physical demands of a New Hampshire campaign, and will falter. Then the pressure on him from inside his own cabinet to clear the effing road will be irresistible.
One thing about an independent Scotland that isn't much discussed, it's wind power generation capacity is > England on an absolubte; and way way way better on a per head basis. Independent Scotland would be well set energy wise, whereas it would be a big problem for rUK long term.
I wonder why a positive aspect of an indy Scotland isn't much discussed on here?
Innocent face etc.
England needs Scotland.
Scotland doesn’t need England.
Not convinced by this on anything other than water. I think England has enough off-shore energy potential. Lucky the North Sea is so shallow.
There's more than enough potential for offshore wind for everyone in the British Isles - and distributed around the coasts.
Even just replacing the existing sites with bigger (and more efficient turbines) in a few years would double output. But you don't need to do that, since you can expand the existing sites hugely and there are many more potential sites.
How many times more generating capability than the current consumption of the entire grid do you want?
Well, given energy costs feed into pretty much everything, keep going till it's not economical to keep putting them in?
From an Indy perspective, there is no-doubt that Scotland can produce more per capita. But that won't matter if rUK is already self-sufficient.
It would depend on how the market would work. Would Scotland sell the energy to England, and then England to Europe? Could Scotland sell direct via that new artificial island they are going to build in the middle of the North Sea?
There's already an interconnector between Norway and Scotland.
I thought that was due in a few years.
North Sea Link is Norway to Blyth. Opened in Oct 2021. North Connect is Norway to Peterhead, nominally due in 2025 - which the Norwegian Govt are currently hemming and hawing about pending how North Sea Link performs *?
* currently nearly all the time importing into UK from Norway.
I stand corrected. I imagine HMG will be trying to overcome Norwegian humming and hawing to expedite all possible methods of energy import.
I presume the RN have a plan if the Russians go for these cables?
One thing about an independent Scotland that isn't much discussed, it's wind power generation capacity is > England on an absolubte; and way way way better on a per head basis. Independent Scotland would be well set energy wise, whereas it would be a big problem for rUK long term.
I wonder why a positive aspect of an indy Scotland isn't much discussed on here?
Innocent face etc.
England needs Scotland.
Scotland doesn’t need England.
Not convinced by this on anything other than water. I think England has enough off-shore energy potential. Lucky the North Sea is so shallow.
There's more than enough potential for offshore wind for everyone in the British Isles - and distributed around the coasts.
Even just replacing the existing sites with bigger (and more efficient turbines) in a few years would double output. But you don't need to do that, since you can expand the existing sites hugely and there are many more potential sites.
How many times more generating capability than the current consumption of the entire grid do you want?
Well, given energy costs feed into pretty much everything, keep going till it's not economical to keep putting them in?
From an Indy perspective, there is no-doubt that Scotland can produce more per capita. But that won't matter if rUK is already self-sufficient.
It would depend on how the market would work. Would Scotland sell the energy to England, and then England to Europe? Could Scotland sell direct via that new artificial island they are going to build in the middle of the North Sea?
There's already an interconnector between Norway and Scotland.
I thought that was due in a few years.
North Sea Link is Norway to Blyth. Opened in Oct 2021. North Connect is Norway to Peterhead, nominally due in 2025 - which the Norwegian Govt are currently hemming and hawing about pending how North Sea Link performs *?
* currently nearly all the time importing into UK from Norway.
I stand corrected. I imagine HMG will be trying to overcome Norwegian humming and hawing to expedite all possible methods of energy import.
I presume the RN have a plan if the Russians go for these cables?
I sure hope so. And also for offshore windfarm connections.
And I hope the Peterhead project gets built - afaics the more the merrier.
"Most parts of England have not had drought measures implemented for move [sic] than a decade."
Maybe it's a false memory, but I seem to remember hosepipe bans being very common not too long ago, and happening earlier in the summer than this. Am I imagining it?
Winter plays a big role in summer drought. February 'fill dyke' is common winter lore. If you have blocked, anticylconic winters (dry and coldish) then the start the summer with lower than optimum aquifers. Recent winters have tended to be more of the westerly driven warm and wet flavour, and hence fewer issues later in the year.
Drought shouldn't be an issue with properly managed water supplies long term. Warmer climate = More energy = more rain basically.
There's an issue with the wrong type of rain though. If you have fewer, but heavier rainstorms, then you can have more rain overall, and more flooding, but the rain doesn't soak into the ground to replenish the aquifers.
On topic, I'd strongly challenge Mike's blithe assertion that the nomination is Biden's for the taking.
Actually, should he run, this has 1968 written all over it in letters a mile high.
A fairly unpopular President, whose campaigning skills are hampered by age and infirmity. A youthful and boisterous progressive wing. Ambitious moderates who fear the progressives jumping the queue.
This screams LBJ, Eugene McCarthy, Bobby Kennedy, Hubert Humphrey.
A recent New Hampshire poll showed Biden in the low teens as preferred Democrat candidate (second to Buttigieg but essentially a blanket result). Even more importantly, he was nowhere as second choice. Democrats are looking for someone other than the President.
Mark my words - if Biden stands, someone will do a McCarthy on him. Possibly from the left, but possibly a late middle aged man in a hurry like Cory Booker. Biden will struggle with the physical demands of a New Hampshire campaign, and will falter. Then the pressure on him from inside his own cabinet to clear the effing road will be irresistible.
Indeed Buttigieg could well be Bobby Kennedy to Biden's LBJ or Macron to Biden's Hollande
On topic, I'd strongly challenge Mike's blithe assertion that the nomination is Biden's for the taking.
Actually, should he run, this has 1968 written all over it in letters a mile high.
A fairly unpopular President, whose campaigning skills are hampered by age and infirmity. A youthful and boisterous progressive wing. Ambitious moderates who fear the progressives jumping the queue.
This screams LBJ, Eugene McCarthy, Bobby Kennedy, Hubert Humphrey.
A recent New Hampshire poll showed Biden in the low teens as preferred Democrat candidate (second to Buttigieg but essentially a blanket result). Even more importantly, he was nowhere as second choice. Democrats are looking for someone other than the President.
Mark my words - if Biden stands, someone will do a McCarthy on him. Possibly from the left, but possibly a late middle aged man in a hurry like Cory Booker. Biden will struggle with the physical demands of a New Hampshire campaign, and will falter. Then the pressure on him from inside his own cabinet to clear the effing road will be irresistible.
Elizabeth Warren has been touring the country apparently.
ComRes buck the recent trend and shove the Tories back under 30 in the Independent 42 Lab 29 Con 12 LD Fieldwork 23 to 24 July Out of line with the others recently but a klaxon for the Tories
We’re all assuming that the new PM will get a honeymoon poll boost (both Brown and May did), but what is she doesn’t? What if the Conservatives under Truss poll over 10 points behind Labour, month after month after month? How long will the party put up with that? 6 months? 12 months? 18 months?
On topic, I'd strongly challenge Mike's blithe assertion that the nomination is Biden's for the taking.
Actually, should he run, this has 1968 written all over it in letters a mile high.
A fairly unpopular President, whose campaigning skills are hampered by age and infirmity. A youthful and boisterous progressive wing. Ambitious moderates who fear the progressives jumping the queue.
This screams LBJ, Eugene McCarthy, Bobby Kennedy, Hubert Humphrey.
A recent New Hampshire poll showed Biden in the low teens as preferred Democrat candidate (second to Buttigieg but essentially a blanket result). Even more importantly, he was nowhere as second choice. Democrats are looking for someone other than the President.
Mark my words - if Biden stands, someone will do a McCarthy on him. Possibly from the left, but possibly a late middle aged man in a hurry like Cory Booker. Biden will struggle with the physical demands of a New Hampshire campaign, and will falter. Then the pressure on him from inside his own cabinet to clear the effing road will be irresistible.
Elizabeth Warren has been touring the country apparently.
Warren could be McCarthy to Buttigieg's Bobby Kennedy
One thing about an independent Scotland that isn't much discussed, it's wind power generation capacity is > England on an absolubte; and way way way better on a per head basis. Independent Scotland would be well set energy wise, whereas it would be a big problem for rUK long term.
I wonder why a positive aspect of an indy Scotland isn't much discussed on here?
Innocent face etc.
England needs Scotland.
Scotland doesn’t need England.
Not convinced by this on anything other than water. I think England has enough off-shore energy potential. Lucky the North Sea is so shallow.
There's more than enough potential for offshore wind for everyone in the British Isles - and distributed around the coasts.
Even just replacing the existing sites with bigger (and more efficient turbines) in a few years would double output. But you don't need to do that, since you can expand the existing sites hugely and there are many more potential sites.
How many times more generating capability than the current consumption of the entire grid do you want?
Well, given energy costs feed into pretty much everything, keep going till it's not economical to keep putting them in?
From an Indy perspective, there is no-doubt that Scotland can produce more per capita. But that won't matter if rUK is already self-sufficient.
It would depend on how the market would work. Would Scotland sell the energy to England, and then England to Europe? Could Scotland sell direct via that new artificial island they are going to build in the middle of the North Sea?
There's already an interconnector between Norway and Scotland.
I thought that was due in a few years.
North Sea Link is Norway to Blyth. Opened in Oct 2021. North Connect is Norway to Peterhead, nominally due in 2025 - which the Norwegian Govt are currently hemming and hawing about pending how North Sea Link performs *?
* currently nearly all the time importing into UK from Norway.
I stand corrected. I imagine HMG will be trying to overcome Norwegian humming and hawing to expedite all possible methods of energy import.
I presume the RN have a plan if the Russians go for these cables?
The judge found that "significant parts of [Vardy's] evidence were not credible" and there were many occasions when her "evidence was manifestly inconsistent with the contemporaneous documentary evidence, evasive or implausible".
"Most parts of England have not had drought measures implemented for move [sic] than a decade."
Maybe it's a false memory, but I seem to remember hosepipe bans being very common not too long ago, and happening earlier in the summer than this. Am I imagining it?
Winter plays a big role in summer drought. February 'fill dyke' is common winter lore. If you have blocked, anticylconic winters (dry and coldish) then the start the summer with lower than optimum aquifers. Recent winters have tended to be more of the westerly driven warm and wet flavour, and hence fewer issues later in the year.
Drought shouldn't be an issue with properly managed water supplies long term. Warmer climate = More energy = more rain basically.
I think we've started to see this already with a lack of drought in more recent years.
Well, except 2018, and now. Both seriously dry. We are also getting very dry springs.
There has been a change in the seasonal distribution of rain for England & Wales. The winters have become wetter and the summers have become drier. Overall it roughly cancels.
ComRes buck the recent trend and shove the Tories back under 30 in the Independent 42 Lab 29 Con 12 LD Fieldwork 23 to 24 July Out of line with the others recently but a klaxon for the Tories
We’re all assuming that the new PM will get a honeymoon poll boost (both Brown and May did), but what is she doesn’t? What if the Conservatives under Truss poll over 10 points behind Labour, month after month after month? How long will the party put up with that? 6 months? 12 months? 18 months?
Her failure to be the first choice of the vast majority of her colleagues suggests the shorter end. However. They can't keep doing this endlessly, can they?
One thing about an independent Scotland that isn't much discussed, it's wind power generation capacity is > England on an absolubte; and way way way better on a per head basis. Independent Scotland would be well set energy wise, whereas it would be a big problem for rUK long term.
I wonder why a positive aspect of an indy Scotland isn't much discussed on here?
Innocent face etc.
England needs Scotland.
Scotland doesn’t need England.
Not convinced by this on anything other than water. I think England has enough off-shore energy potential. Lucky the North Sea is so shallow.
There's more than enough potential for offshore wind for everyone in the British Isles - and distributed around the coasts.
Even just replacing the existing sites with bigger (and more efficient turbines) in a few years would double output. But you don't need to do that, since you can expand the existing sites hugely and there are many more potential sites.
How many times more generating capability than the current consumption of the entire grid do you want?
Well, given energy costs feed into pretty much everything, keep going till it's not economical to keep putting them in?
From an Indy perspective, there is no-doubt that Scotland can produce more per capita. But that won't matter if rUK is already self-sufficient.
It would depend on how the market would work. Would Scotland sell the energy to England, and then England to Europe? Could Scotland sell direct via that new artificial island they are going to build in the middle of the North Sea?
There's already an interconnector between Norway and Scotland.
I thought that was due in a few years.
North Sea Link is Norway to Blyth. Opened in Oct 2021. North Connect is Norway to Peterhead, nominally due in 2025 - which the Norwegian Govt are currently hemming and hawing about pending how North Sea Link performs *?
* currently nearly all the time importing into UK from Norway.
I stand corrected. I imagine HMG will be trying to overcome Norwegian humming and hawing to expedite all possible methods of energy import.
I presume the RN have a plan if the Russians go for these cables?
Cassus Belli for war I think ?
"Woops, we snagged one"
"I say, very sorry about accidentally dropping all those homing torpedos on your sub. Just after you had that accident with the cable. Bad luck all round, that. Spot of tea?"
The judge found that "significant parts of [Vardy's] evidence were not credible" and there were many occasions when her "evidence was manifestly inconsistent with the contemporaneous documentary evidence, evasive or implausible".
ComRes buck the recent trend and shove the Tories back under 30 in the Independent 42 Lab 29 Con 12 LD Fieldwork 23 to 24 July Out of line with the others recently but a klaxon for the Tories
We’re all assuming that the new PM will get a honeymoon poll boost (both Brown and May did), but what is she doesn’t? What if the Conservatives under Truss poll over 10 points behind Labour, month after month after month? How long will the party put up with that? 6 months? 12 months? 18 months?
Her failure to be the first choice of the vast majority of her colleagues suggests the shorter end. However. They can't keep doing this endlessly, can they?
I think 12 months is the pain threshold. If there is no sign of swingback then they’ll panic, as the Jan 2025 deadline looms.
Only two by-elections, so not much movement. Good win (defending) for Labour in Derbyshire, not much happening in Colchester, although the LibDems seemed pretty confident in the latter last night on social media, so probably a disappointment for them
Tories blamed LD for building houses. Nimbyism pays off.
Well LDs play the NIMBY card across the Home counties v Tory councils and also did in Chesham and Amersham
The position in Chesham and Amersham was more subtle than that.
The previous Conservative Council (since subsumed into Buckinghamshire super-authority, I believe) had very badly dropped the ball by failing to put in place local planning policies, leaving it as something of a free-for-all when the national legislation was stripped back (also by a Tory Government which didn't help). So there wasn't any real management of what was appropriate for different parts of a locality which has some particularly beautiful countryside.
Having a Local Plan is about managing development - stopping it in some places, making it more appropriate in some, but actively encouraging it in others where the infrascruture is there. That's why most Councils - including, for example, Epping Forest - have them. It really was an unforgivable oversight by Buckinghamshire Tories.
The HS2 stuff clearly has more of a NIMBY edge to it (although I'm personally not affected by HS2 but query value for money compared with alternative rail infrastructure so it's not pure NIMBY). The late Tory MP opposed it, and so does the new Lib Dem one - that's in line with local views and no real shock.
Journalists note Rooney was not successful on her public interest defence, partly because she didn't go to Vardy for comment before publishing her accusation. That said, it's quite hard to explain exactly how damning this judgment is of Vardy. And she'll pick up the bill for it.
Vardy earns £140k / week. I mean he probably does have cash but £3M is still ~ 9 month's wages after tax. Expensive, even for a Prem footballer.
The funny thing is Rooney offered to settle three times.
The other funny thing is the original ruling that Rooney's Tweet could be interpreted as pointing the finger directly at Rebekah Vardy. That was ridiculous in my opinion, but it's resulted in a court case that means we can all say:
Vardy earns £140k / week. I mean he probably does have cash but £3M is still ~ 9 month's wages after tax. Expensive, even for a Prem footballer.
The funny thing is Rooney offered to settle three times.
The other funny thing is the original ruling that Rooney's Tweet could be interpreted as pointing the finger directly at Rebekah Vardy. That was ridiculous in my opinion, but it's resulted in a court case that means we can all say:
ComRes buck the recent trend and shove the Tories back under 30 in the Independent 42 Lab 29 Con 12 LD Fieldwork 23 to 24 July Out of line with the others recently but a klaxon for the Tories
We’re all assuming that the new PM will get a honeymoon poll boost (both Brown and May did), but what is she doesn’t? What if the Conservatives under Truss poll over 10 points behind Labour, month after month after month? How long will the party put up with that? 6 months? 12 months? 18 months?
Vardy earns £140k / week. I mean he probably does have cash but £3M is still ~ 9 month's wages after tax. Expensive, even for a Prem footballer.
The funny thing is Rooney offered to settle three times.
The other funny thing is the original ruling that Rooney's Tweet could be interpreted as pointing the finger directly at Rebekah Vardy. That was ridiculous in my opinion, but it's resulted in a court case that means we can all say:
"Jamie Vardy, your wife is a grass."
Indeed. I can’t wait until we play Leicester.
I don't have long to wait, we play them on August 13.
That said, he always scores against us. Not sure winding him up even more will work to our advantage.
Vardy earns £140k / week. I mean he probably does have cash but £3M is still ~ 9 month's wages after tax. Expensive, even for a Prem footballer.
The funny thing is Rooney offered to settle three times.
The other funny thing is the original ruling that Rooney's Tweet could be interpreted as pointing the finger directly at Rebekah Vardy. That was ridiculous in my opinion, but it's resulted in a court case that means we can all say:
"Jamie Vardy, your wife is a grass."
Indeed. I can’t wait until we play Leicester.
I don't have long to wait, we play them on August 13.
That said, he always scores against us. Not sure winding him up even more will work to our advantage.
Jamie Vardy is 50 on Betfair to be top scorer next season.
On topic, I'd strongly challenge Mike's blithe assertion that the nomination is Biden's for the taking.
Actually, should he run, this has 1968 written all over it in letters a mile high.
A fairly unpopular President, whose campaigning skills are hampered by age and infirmity. A youthful and boisterous progressive wing. Ambitious moderates who fear the progressives jumping the queue.
This screams LBJ, Eugene McCarthy, Bobby Kennedy, Hubert Humphrey.
A recent New Hampshire poll showed Biden in the low teens as preferred Democrat candidate (second to Buttigieg but essentially a blanket result). Even more importantly, he was nowhere as second choice. Democrats are looking for someone other than the President.
Mark my words - if Biden stands, someone will do a McCarthy on him. Possibly from the left, but possibly a late middle aged man in a hurry like Cory Booker. Biden will struggle with the physical demands of a New Hampshire campaign, and will falter. Then the pressure on him from inside his own cabinet to clear the effing road will be irresistible.
Agree with all if that aside from the LBJ comparison. Vietnam had riven the Democrats utterly; this is more in sorrow than anger.
TBF, David Irving took that crown 25 years ago when he sued Deborah Lipstadt for saying he twisted evidence, only to have a judge declare he was a liar, forger, racist, Nazi sympathiser and serial criminal.
The judge found that "significant parts of [Vardy's] evidence were not credible" and there were many occasions when her "evidence was manifestly inconsistent with the contemporaneous documentary evidence, evasive or implausible".
The judge found that "significant parts of [Vardy's] evidence were not credible" and there were many occasions when her "evidence was manifestly inconsistent with the contemporaneous documentary evidence, evasive or implausible".
Vardy earns £140k / week. I mean he probably does have cash but £3M is still ~ 9 month's wages after tax. Expensive, even for a Prem footballer.
The funny thing is Rooney offered to settle three times.
The other funny thing is the original ruling that Rooney's Tweet could be interpreted as pointing the finger directly at Rebekah Vardy. That was ridiculous in my opinion, but it's resulted in a court case that means we can all say:
"Jamie Vardy, your wife is a grass."
Indeed. I can’t wait until we play Leicester.
I don't have long to wait, we play them on August 13.
That said, he always scores against us. Not sure winding him up even more will work to our advantage.
Jamie Vardy is 50 on Betfair to be top scorer next season.
I think he will not be starting all matches, as Daka and 'Nacho have looked good pre-season, and Jamie is getting a bit more creaky.
While a contributing factor, Russia’s failure to develop an economy with more breadth across industries cannot be explained by a resource curse alone; and is closely related to the highly corrupt institutional arrangement in Russia. Nowhere is this more obvious than in the natural gas sector.
Within natural gas, the Russian political economy encouraged the creation of a highly corrupt and inefficient duopoly of Gazprom – the state-owned exporter of piped natural gas, derived from the legacy Soviet gas ministry; and Novatek – an oligarch-controlled nascent LNG exporter. The degree of bribery and value-extraction is legendary even by Russian standards, with Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller’s son-in-law managing two trillion dollars' worth of government procurements and co-owning a penthouse worth about 800 million US dollars. The CEO himself got one of the largest bribes in Russian history – a rather dubious distinction – in the form of a palace built for him by one of the contractors of Gazprom.
ComRes buck the recent trend and shove the Tories back under 30 in the Independent 42 Lab 29 Con 12 LD Fieldwork 23 to 24 July Out of line with the others recently but a klaxon for the Tories
We’re all assuming that the new PM will get a honeymoon poll boost (both Brown and May did), but what is she doesn’t? What if the Conservatives under Truss poll over 10 points behind Labour, month after month after month? How long will the party put up with that? 6 months? 12 months? 18 months?
Her failure to be the first choice of the vast majority of her colleagues suggests the shorter end. However. They can't keep doing this endlessly, can they?
Unless Truss personally does something heinous (lying to Parliament to give a random example), they are stuck with her until the election.
If she polls poorly, the argument (and it's not without merit) from Team Truss will be terrible economic legacy and turning round the supertanker. Enough Tory MPs will either buy that, or at least say that the impression of chaos created by a new contest would be worse. A few, particularly in safer seats, will also reason the next election isn't a bad one to lose (in office a long time, bad outlook, regroup from the other benches).
This really is their last roll of the dice - if it turns out poorly then they'll lose the election and just need to rebuild from opposition.
TBF, David Irving took that crown 25 years ago when he sued Deborah Lipstadt for saying he twisted evidence, only to have a judge declare he was a liar, forger, racist, Nazi sympathiser and serial criminal.
To Be Even Fairer, The chap who egged Wilde on (Bosie) spent quite a lot of effort promoting the Protocols of the Elders of Zion and stated (via the magazine he founded) "We need a Ku Klux Klan in this country".
The court says the loss of the WhatsApp messages between Vardy and her agent was "deliberate rather than accidental". Essentially the judge did not accept that a mobile phone accidentally fell over the side of a boat in the North Sea shortly after a request was made to search it.
Journalists note Rooney was not successful on her public interest defence, partly because she didn't go to Vardy for comment before publishing her accusation. That said, it's quite hard to explain exactly how damning this judgment is of Vardy. And she'll pick up the bill for it.
Judge concludes Vardy's agent probably leaked the stories to the Sun. But Vardy "knew of and condoned this" and would provide "screenshots of Rooney’s posts, drawing attention to items of potential interest to the press, and answering additional queries raised by the press".
Really glad Colleen won. I wonder if this circus is the reason Wayne is in the USA now? Away from our ludicrous tabloids and libel laws?
He's returned to DC United because he'll be on excellent wages, living a very nice lifestyle, managing a well-resourced side with good facilities. And he may very well still be back for a good offer in the Premiership in a year or two.
It's basically a bloody good job, particularly compared with managing Derby County in League One (and he'd probably still have done the latter had things fallen slightly differently with that crisis).
ComRes buck the recent trend and shove the Tories back under 30 in the Independent 42 Lab 29 Con 12 LD Fieldwork 23 to 24 July Out of line with the others recently but a klaxon for the Tories
We’re all assuming that the new PM will get a honeymoon poll boost (both Brown and May did), but what is she doesn’t? What if the Conservatives under Truss poll over 10 points behind Labour, month after month after month? How long will the party put up with that? 6 months? 12 months? 18 months?
Her failure to be the first choice of the vast majority of her colleagues suggests the shorter end. However. They can't keep doing this endlessly, can they?
Unless Truss personally does something heinous (lying to Parliament to give a random example), they are stuck with her until the election.
If she polls poorly, the argument (and it's not without merit) from Team Truss will be terrible economic legacy and turning round the supertanker. Enough Tory MPs will either buy that, or at least say that the impression of chaos created by a new contest would be worse. A few, particularly in safer seats, will also reason the next election isn't a bad one to lose (in office a long time, bad outlook, regroup from the other benches).
This really is their last roll of the dice - if it turns out poorly then they'll lose the election and just need to rebuild from opposition.
Well, it might be quite easy to "no confidence" Liz Truss given that in the final MPs' ballot, she got only 115 votes, against Rishi's 137 and Penny Mordaunt's 103. Rishi's backers could vonc Truss on their own, leaving aside Mordaunt's. It is not like 2019 where Boris got more than half MPs' votes and then purged a lot who had voted against him, and then topped up with a lot of new MPs at the general election.
ComRes buck the recent trend and shove the Tories back under 30 in the Independent 42 Lab 29 Con 12 LD Fieldwork 23 to 24 July Out of line with the others recently but a klaxon for the Tories
We’re all assuming that the new PM will get a honeymoon poll boost (both Brown and May did), but what is she doesn’t? What if the Conservatives under Truss poll over 10 points behind Labour, month after month after month? How long will the party put up with that? 6 months? 12 months? 18 months?
Apart from a brief honeymoon, the polls under Brown were generally appalling for Labour. The Tory lead was regularly over 20% in 2008.
Those are the three I'm very sure of, with the possible exception of Wallace to Foreign. If he goes to Foreign then he's likely to be next leader, staying at defence would indicate to me he doesn't want the top job - so though he'll be one of the likely early favourites along with Badenoch for Tory leader after next he should be opposed in the market if that's the case.
Good analysis
Not so sure - Leadsom was an early backer and there were rumours she had been promised number eleven, but now the word on the street seems to be that Kwasi is on a promise?
A further complication is that Team Truss might decide to make Rishi an offer to fold early, rather than risk running the last month just in case something does turn up. What would Rishi want?
Even if she doesn't, she as good as promised him a role in her team, during the debate, and there aren't that many jobs she can offer that won't appear a humiliation or demotion. Yet she can hardly make him Chancellor given their differences. Which suggests Rishi will take over from her as FS, despite no obvious prior interest or expertise in foreign affairs (apart from family background, obvs)
The court says the loss of the WhatsApp messages between Vardy and her agent was "deliberate rather than accidental". Essentially the judge did not accept that a mobile phone accidentally fell over the side of a boat in the North Sea shortly after a request was made to search it.
Journalists note Rooney was not successful on her public interest defence, partly because she didn't go to Vardy for comment before publishing her accusation. That said, it's quite hard to explain exactly how damning this judgment is of Vardy. And she'll pick up the bill for it.
Judge concludes Vardy's agent probably leaked the stories to the Sun. But Vardy "knew of and condoned this" and would provide "screenshots of Rooney’s posts, drawing attention to items of potential interest to the press, and answering additional queries raised by the press".
The court says the loss of the WhatsApp messages between Vardy and her agent was "deliberate rather than accidental". Essentially the judge did not accept that a mobile phone accidentally fell over the side of a boat in the North Sea shortly after a request was made to search it.
Journalists note Rooney was not successful on her public interest defence, partly because she didn't go to Vardy for comment before publishing her accusation. That said, it's quite hard to explain exactly how damning this judgment is of Vardy. And she'll pick up the bill for it.
Judge concludes Vardy's agent probably leaked the stories to the Sun. But Vardy "knew of and condoned this" and would provide "screenshots of Rooney’s posts, drawing attention to items of potential interest to the press, and answering additional queries raised by the press".
Quite honestly but for that fact I'd have no concerns about Truss. I dont understand economics so if her plans are bonkers or ok I'd not really know, but including any of those three is deeply worrying as a matter of her judgement given Boris was deemed unfit to be PM and JRM is manifestly incompetent.
Even Boris barely trusted JRM to have any responsibility, even though he was slavishly loyal, that is very telling.
Dorries I have zero strong feelings about, she just seems a troll.
Really glad Colleen won. I wonder if this circus is the reason Wayne is in the USA now? Away from our ludicrous tabloids and libel laws?
He's returned to DC United because he'll be on excellent wages, living a very nice lifestyle, managing a well-resourced side with good facilities. And he may very well still be back for a good offer in the Premiership in a year or two.
It's basically a bloody good job, particularly compared with managing Derby County in League One (and he'd probably still have done the latter had things fallen slightly differently with that crisis).
Comments
1 - One message has been about alleged extra costs to connect to the grid as anti-Scottish. My suggestion is that National Grid would work on most cost-effective for the consumer, and would see connection costs as part of the overall scheme. You'll see that kind of argumentation from, eg, Business for Scotland - try this piece for their current mix:
https://www.businessforscotland.com/new-figures-show-scotland-is-leading-the-renewable-energy-revolution/
2 - There has been a bit of a propaganda war, as will all aspects of Sindy. And a lot of stuff got rather debunked.
3 - I really don't know where the overall cost balance is now, as the market has been reformed. Nor have I seen proposals for how FITs and large generator subsidies would work in Sindy.
She demands that other people make concessions, so as to feel good about herself.
Overall precip has not yet changed
https://www.climatechangepost.com/united-kingdom/climate-change/
That being said, the way they are monstering the Tories in Surrey, the south coast and the SW I think they can probably settle for things overall! We are getting pretty close to DefCon 'LD local mojo is back'
Ps her letter said Holst was German. He was actually English although his father had German ancestry.
What about giving a chunk of Southern Ireland to Russia in exchange for peace?
It is for the Ukranians to decide.
Fieldwork 23 to 24 July
Out of line with the others recently but a klaxon for the Tories
North Sea Link is Norway to Blyth. Opened in Oct 2021.
North Connect is Norway to Peterhead, nominally due in 2025 - which the Norwegian Govt are currently hemming and hawing about pending how North Sea Link performs *?
* currently nearly all the time importing into UK from Norway.
https://twitter.com/maria_avdv/status/1552955144165359622
The Aim:
To create a mathematically calculated index to assess each major party’s performance in the week’s council by-elections; taking out subjective views, party spin, and expectations management; and relying only on information that is consistently available for all by elections.
Nearly every week, there are a handful of by-elections to vacant council seats. Some seats are held by the defending party, some are lost to a challenger. It should be easy to determine, across the weekly results, who has done well and who badly, but when the observers and prospective interpreters of results have an interest in portraying their own side positively and the opposition negatively, it can be a bit murky to sift the various interpretations to decide where the truth lies.
By basing an algorithm on a standard set of quantitative data available for all by-elections, each result will yield a numerical value for each party’s performance which can be aggregated to assess the weekly performance.
Base Data
Four known pieces of information are used to provide a base figure to determine how ‘important’ the by-election is to each party. The first item is common to all parties:
Council Majority – How close to a majority is the largest party
The remaining three items are calculated separately for each party:
Party Size – How close is the party to a council majority, or to having 0 councillors on the authority
Vote Share – What is the party’s historic vote share
Past Elections – What history does the party have in the ward
Note that only normally scheduled elections are included in the base data: by-elections are strange beasts, so any previous by-elections in the ward are disregarded.
She wants the Ukranians to sue for peace, and concede vast amounts of their own country that they are expending lives defending.
Break down of the HIMARS system.
https://twitter.com/kenshirriff/status/1552723519087198208
Yale produced paper on the Russian economy and sanctions.
Full PDF here - https://deliverypdf.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=451118121020025089112007072104070094058033002011036016126083000122000028010122080027056058010054013097015093024080007124093002105032054033016125065093082004096092030042055019082094099090083094097123127066074067127027079025122114066031031075118127090099&EXT=pdf&INDEX=TRUE
Slide deck used to present the paper - https://yale.app.box.com/s/7f6agg5ezscj234kahx35lil04udqgeo
Putin is a classic serial killer - he doesn't stop until he's stopped.
I imagine HMG will be trying to overcome Norwegian humming and hawing to expedite all possible methods of energy import.
Keir Starmer is popular with the voters Labour needs and Truss is unpopular with the voters the Tories need. Truss needs to do something about that.
Bit like the Germans in 1914 wanting to try and cripple France - for the *next* war.
A while back, someone posted some stuff from electronic messages between Russians in Crimea - they are fully expecting revenge on a massive scale from the Ukrainians, if they ever get there. And talking about getting out before the bridges go....
Ah, glad someone caught it.
Not being part of the engineering world it seems bizarre that the system works. So many modules, bits of electronics, external data streams, chunks of software. And like you say some actual chemistry (I like the thermal battery idea a little too much),
Madness.
https://twitter.com/PA/status/1552972910339440640
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jul/29/rebekah-vardy-loses-libel-case-against-coleen-rooney-wagatha-christie
Actually, should he run, this has 1968 written all over it in letters a mile high.
A fairly unpopular President, whose campaigning skills are hampered by age and infirmity. A youthful and boisterous progressive wing. Ambitious moderates who fear the progressives jumping the queue.
This screams LBJ, Eugene McCarthy, Bobby Kennedy, Hubert Humphrey.
A recent New Hampshire poll showed Biden in the low teens as preferred Democrat candidate (second to Buttigieg but essentially a blanket result). Even more importantly, he was nowhere as second choice. Democrats are looking for someone other than the President.
Mark my words - if Biden stands, someone will do a McCarthy on him. Possibly from the left, but possibly a late middle aged man in a hurry like Cory Booker. Biden will struggle with the physical demands of a New Hampshire campaign, and will falter. Then the pressure on him from inside his own cabinet to clear the effing road will be irresistible.
https://twitter.com/aljwhite/status/1552973435218829312?s=20&t=_EivpzFzH8foksrlFjeHEg
And I hope the Peterhead project gets built - afaics the more the merrier.
https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/1552974154105774080
Expensive, even for a Prem footballer.
However. They can't keep doing this endlessly, can they?
Truss needs to close the gap, and fast.
The previous Conservative Council (since subsumed into Buckinghamshire super-authority, I believe) had very badly dropped the ball by failing to put in place local planning policies, leaving it as something of a free-for-all when the national legislation was stripped back (also by a Tory Government which didn't help). So there wasn't any real management of what was appropriate for different parts of a locality which has some particularly beautiful countryside.
Having a Local Plan is about managing development - stopping it in some places, making it more appropriate in some, but actively encouraging it in others where the infrascruture is there. That's why most Councils - including, for example, Epping Forest - have them. It really was an unforgivable oversight by Buckinghamshire Tories.
The HS2 stuff clearly has more of a NIMBY edge to it (although I'm personally not affected by HS2 but query value for money compared with alternative rail infrastructure so it's not pure NIMBY). The late Tory MP opposed it, and so does the new Lib Dem one - that's in line with local views and no real shock.
https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/1552977649898758145
"Jamie Vardy, your wife is a grass."
And presumably she'll not have any money to spend on plastic surgery
That said, he always scores against us. Not sure winding him up even more will work to our advantage.
Vietnam had riven the Democrats utterly; this is more in sorrow than anger.
I wonder if this circus is the reason Wayne is in the USA now?
Away from our ludicrous tabloids and libel laws?
While a contributing factor, Russia’s failure to develop an economy with more breadth across industries cannot be explained by a resource curse alone; and is closely related to the highly corrupt institutional arrangement in Russia. Nowhere is this more obvious than in the natural gas sector.
Within natural gas, the Russian political economy encouraged the creation of a highly corrupt and inefficient duopoly of Gazprom – the state-owned exporter of piped natural gas, derived from the legacy Soviet gas ministry; and Novatek – an oligarch-controlled nascent LNG exporter. The degree of bribery and value-extraction is legendary even by Russian standards, with Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller’s son-in-law managing two trillion dollars' worth of government procurements and co-owning a penthouse worth about 800 million US dollars. The CEO himself got one of the largest bribes in Russian history – a rather dubious distinction – in the form of a palace built for him by one of the contractors of Gazprom.
My bold.
Darn....
If she polls poorly, the argument (and it's not without merit) from Team Truss will be terrible economic legacy and turning round the supertanker. Enough Tory MPs will either buy that, or at least say that the impression of chaos created by a new contest would be worse. A few, particularly in safer seats, will also reason the next election isn't a bad one to lose (in office a long time, bad outlook, regroup from the other benches).
This really is their last roll of the dice - if it turns out poorly then they'll lose the election and just need to rebuild from opposition.
But I don't think she'll be screwing him again any time soon.
Journalists note Rooney was not successful on her public interest defence, partly because she didn't go to Vardy for comment before publishing her accusation. That said, it's quite hard to explain exactly how damning this judgment is of Vardy. And she'll pick up the bill for it.
Judge concludes Vardy's agent probably leaked the stories to the Sun. But Vardy "knew of and condoned this" and would provide "screenshots of Rooney’s posts, drawing attention to items of potential interest to the press, and answering additional queries raised by the press".
https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/1552975254594650112
The latter is likely to be a lot funnier, as judicial rulings implying in careful, formal language that someone is a liar are often hilarious.
Sunak 11
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/politics-betting-2378961
It's basically a bloody good job, particularly compared with managing Derby County in League One (and he'd probably still have done the latter had things fallen slightly differently with that crisis).
Was it actually eaten by the dog?
Even Boris barely trusted JRM to have any responsibility, even though he was slavishly loyal, that is very telling.
Dorries I have zero strong feelings about, she just seems a troll.
The pitch is no longer a hippopotamus-wallow.