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Truss continues to be a 65% chance in the next PM betting – politicalbetting.com

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  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,785
    TOPPING said:

    The government as you say had to go through a difficult exercise which lead to some of the absurdities we saw (X is allowed, Y is not). Because in aggregate that seeming anomaly brought about a decrease in overall activity which was the required aim.

    But that persisted far, far beyond what was reasonable or consistent with a liberal democracy.
    And that is an argument people are perfectly free to make. Its just that its all a bit one sided when the Tories introduce the restrictions that applied in spring 21 and all parties make use of it and then suddenly its all Starmer's fault.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,576

    As I said yesterday, I find flag-shagging to be baffling. If you want to use it as an emblem of the country and a marketing tool, that's great! We sell so much Chinese-made union jack covered tat to tourists and we could do a lot more. There have been waves of "Cool Britannia" style export bonanzas. Which are also great.

    The problem is when the flag-shaggers take over. The flag ceases to be an emblem of identity and trade but instead a token of exclusion and hate and division.
    On my recent travels I noticed how many people in Armenia and Montenegro are wearing Union Jack themed apparel - usually tee-shirts but sometimes bags etc

    It’s an incredible “brand”. More even than the Stars and Stripes, in fact much more so

    How many of them explicitly associate it with the UK? No idea. Maybe few. But it sells things worldwide
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    The United Kingdom will host #Eurovision 2023! 🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧

    ➡️ Everything you need to know here: eurovision.tv/story/united-k…


    https://twitter.com/eurovision/status/1551522740229783552
  • eekeek Posts: 29,690
    UK to host Eurovision next year.

    BBC better find some budget to pay for it..
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,333

    Or else, as Dennis Healey didn't say, "squeeze them until the pips squeak"
    That was Sir Eric Geddes, on being told by Keynes that Germany couldn't afford £6.6 billion reparations:

    'We will squeeze them as a lemon is squeezed - until the pips squeak.'
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,785
    MattW said:

    Not really sure what is wrong with "Distinctively British", unless you are perhaps a Citizen of Nowhere.

    We have distinctively French, and distinctively Italian.

    I just don't see the problem.

    There is perhaps a problem apply it to Sir Starmer, though. He needs to explain and demonstrate.
    What is distinctly british though?
    Apples? No
    Pie? No
    Apple Pie? No

    We need to be pushing the things that are culturally unique - Fish and Chips, Bangers and Mash, Haggis, Black Pudding, Whisky, Cornish Pasties etc
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,333
    Nigelb said:

    RIP David Warner.

    Sad news. A wonderful actor with a supreme range. Villain, hero, comedy, drama, Shakespeare, he could do them all.
  • Nigelb said:

    RIP David Warner.

    I thought that was another shock, young, Aussie cricket death then.

    RIP.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    World’s smallest violins stuck in same queue:

    A lorry with £20,000 worth of perishable food destined for Jacob Rees-Mogg’s Somerset mansion is stuck in queues at Calais,according to a source.

    The luxury food haul- including seafood, oysters, saucisson & champagne- was for Rees-Mogg’s summer party today, but now won’t arrive


    https://twitter.com/GBNews_UK/status/1551300577514102786
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,785
    ydoethur said:

    That was Sir Eric Geddes, on being told by Keynes that Germany couldn't afford £6.6 billion reparations:

    'We will squeeze them as a lemon is squeezed - until the pips squeak.'
    Indeed, but Dennis Healey was incorrectly quoted as saying he would tax the rich until the pips squeaked. He didn't say it, but he did do it nonetheless
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560

    And that is an argument people are perfectly free to make. Its just that its all a bit one sided when the Tories introduce the restrictions that applied in spring 21 and all parties make use of it and then suddenly its all Starmer's fault.
    Because Sir Keir supported all the restrictions (except he didn't think they were strict enough) and objected to removing them.

    Thought experiment: Sir Keir is PM and Boris is LOTO. What happens? My guess is that Sir Keir tries to introduce the same or slightly stronger restrictions for longer, and Boris actually provides an opposition advocating fewer restrictions for less time. Unable to justify the restrictions, Sir Keir is forced to back down. Conclusion: Sir Keir's support for the concept of the restrictions actually prolonged them, and therefore he doesn't get off the hook for not being PM.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,527
    IshmaelZ said:

    Our country became great through its embrace of free trade, free enterprise and free markets.

    I am determined to double down on levelling up so that everyone has the opportunity to succeed as part of an aspiration nation.

    https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1551442369287012354

    Reassuring stuff

    Wasn't the slave trade involved there somewhere?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Leon said:

    On my recent travels I noticed how many people in Armenia and Montenegro are wearing Union Jack themed apparel - usually tee-shirts but sometimes bags etc

    It’s an incredible “brand”. More even than the Stars and Stripes, in fact much more so

    How many of them explicitly associate it with the UK? No idea. Maybe few. But it sells things worldwide
    Same thing in Indonesia - many/most don’t get the connection with the UK. Nonetheless if SINDY happens rUK should keep the current flag.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,513

    Don’t worry guys - the revenge of the Millennials will drag us back into the EU at some point and it will be glorious.

    https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/how-britain-voted-1997

    How Britain Voted in 1997:

    25-34: Con 28, Lab 49, LD 16

    https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2016-eu-referendum

    How Britain voted in the 2016 EU referendum:

    45-54: Remain 44, Leave 56
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,668

    And that is an argument people are perfectly free to make. Its just that its all a bit one sided when the Tories introduce the restrictions that applied in spring 21 and all parties make use of it and then suddenly its all Starmer's fault.
    As I said, fuck them all.

    Starmer's fault was that on the biggest issue of our time he failed to oppose the government. Even Jezza understood that the Opposition's premise must be that they could do everything better than the government is doing it.

    In normal times and especially in times of crisis. Of course as @Bart notes he would have been harsher so I suppose we should be thankful he supported Boris throughout.
  • SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 727
    ydoethur said:

    Sad news. A wonderful actor with a supreme range. Villain, hero, comedy, drama, Shakespeare, he could do them all.
    I saw him as King Lear in Chichester some years but for me he will always be Morgan in Morgan: A Suitable Case for Treatment.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,561
    ydoethur said:

    Sad news. A wonderful actor with a supreme range. Villain, hero, comedy, drama, Shakespeare, he could do them all.
    Star Trek legend.

    Chancellor Gorkon and Gul Madred.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560

    The United Kingdom will host #Eurovision 2023! 🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧

    ➡️ Everything you need to know here: eurovision.tv/story/united-k…


    https://twitter.com/eurovision/status/1551522740229783552

    Inevitable, I'm afraid, from the moment Ukraine won and one of the Big Five came second.

    I'm intrigued by the line representatives of UA: PBC will work with the BBC to develop and implement the Ukrainian elements of next year’s shows.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,087
    Sandpit said:

    Good on him. Half an hour with Andrew Neil should be considered compulsory for anyone wanting high office. The antidote to the rest of the clickbait media.
    I presume Truss will take Johnson's lead and chicken out. I was impressed that Sturgeon took him on last election, went predictably badly for her.
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788
    eek said:

    UK to host Eurovision next year.

    BBC better find some budget to pay for it..

    Dorries is on board, so maybe she found some extra pennies in the downstream fund jar?

    https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1551523237095510019
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,561
    Driver said:

    Inevitable, I'm afraid, from the moment Ukraine won and one of the Big Five came second.

    I'm intrigued by the line representatives of UA: PBC will work with the BBC to develop and implement the Ukrainian elements of next year’s shows.
    They’ll get Boris Johnson to ring Zelenskyy during the show.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,513
    Driver said:

    Inevitable, I'm afraid, from the moment Ukraine won and one of the Big Five came second.

    I'm intrigued by the line representatives of UA: PBC will work with the BBC to develop and implement the Ukrainian elements of next year’s shows.
    Presumably it will be presented by Ukraine's answer to... actually, who would host it if we won it? Whatever, it'll be here but very much Ukraine's show.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,122

    World’s smallest violins stuck in same queue:

    A lorry with £20,000 worth of perishable food destined for Jacob Rees-Mogg’s Somerset mansion is stuck in queues at Calais,according to a source.

    The luxury food haul- including seafood, oysters, saucisson & champagne- was for Rees-Mogg’s summer party today, but now won’t arrive


    https://twitter.com/GBNews_UK/status/1551300577514102786

    Sadly a spoof account and story, I think.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,785
    Nigelb said:

    RIP David Warner.

    I hope he has found his five lights.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,690
    Driver said:

    Inevitable, I'm afraid, from the moment Ukraine won and one of the Big Five came second.

    I'm intrigued by the line representatives of UA: PBC will work with the BBC to develop and implement the Ukrainian elements of next year’s shows.
    I suspect the idents leading up to each song will feature Ukrainian bits.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Wasn't the slave trade involved there somewhere?
    I think that was part of free trade. Except from the POV of the merchandise, who didn't count.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,943
    HYUFD said:

    Preferred PM amongst 2019 Conservative voters in weekend Deltapoll

    Johnson 33%
    Truss 26%
    Sunak 24%

    https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1550881157511782402?s=20&t=6jOUXFtS_fprVmi9tPyB0g
    Whereas what makes a difference is which candidate (if any) will bring over and bring back the several million people needed who won't currently vote Tory but in many cases used to.

    Current Tory voters are pretty much their ineradicable base. Their guaranteed votes are necessary but not sufficient.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Wasn't the slave trade involved there somewhere?
    And exploitation of resources produced on slave plantations, some well after slavery was banned in the UK and its empire.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,482
    Sandpit said:

    Good on him. Half an hour with Andrew Neil should be considered compulsory for anyone wanting high office. The antidote to the rest of the clickbait media.
    That's why the Tw@tterati hate him so much.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,047

    Wasn't the slave trade involved there somewhere?
    Yes and no. First, think about the word "great". Second, if the slave trade was such a boon then its abolition for humanitarian reasons knowing there would be a great economic hit is doubly meritorious.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,597
    Driver said:

    Boris isn't going to be a candidate for PM at the next election, so he's irrelevant anyway.
    Boris didn’t actually write the laws. The laws were written by civil servants under the instructions of the Conservative government. The next general election will be a choice over whether to continue that Conservative government or not.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,872
    algarkirk said:

    Whereas what makes a difference is which candidate (if any) will bring over and bring back the several million people needed who won't currently vote Tory but in many cases used to.

    Current Tory voters are pretty much their ineradicable base. Their guaranteed votes are necessary but not sufficient.
    This was a poll of 2019 Tory voters, ie the voters who gave the Tories a majority of 80. It was not a poll of current Tory voters
  • Wasn't the slave trade involved there somewhere?
    Not really, no.

    The rise of Britain as an industrial power took place post-abolitionism.

    Medieval serfdom and slavery was about getting things done with as cheap labour as possible, the industrial revolution was about seeking to replace labour to be more productive.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,087
    Foxy said:

    Sadly a spoof account and story, I think.
    Didn't stop the Scottish Greens re-tweeting it.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,713
    edited July 2022
    ...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,115
    RH1992 said:

    Dorries is on board, so maybe she found some extra pennies in the downstream fund jar?

    https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1551523237095510019
    Proceeds of privatising C4 no doubt.
  • DavidL said:

    Proceeds of privatising C4 no doubt.
    Its Dorries, she's spending the proceeds of privatising ITV.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,459

    Star Trek legend.

    Chancellor Gorkon and Gul Madred.
    Time Bandit nemesis...

    Stage fright pretty well ended his stage career in the early 70s, and he ended up doing a fair amount of average TV stuff (amazingly varied list of credits if you peruse IMDB), but he was a genuinely fine actor throughout.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    edited July 2022
    ...

    ...
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,047
    Eabhal said:

    Didn't stop the Scottish Greens re-tweeting it.
    Always look for the blue tick.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Not really, no.

    The rise of Britain as an industrial power took place post-abolitionism.

    Medieval serfdom and slavery was about getting things done with as cheap labour as possible, the industrial revolution was about seeking to replace labour to be more productive.
    So nothing happened before 1830? Britain WAS the major industrial power then. And continued to rely on slave plantations for critical elements of the economy (much cotton; cheap calories in the form of sugar).
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560
    edited July 2022

    Boris didn’t actually write the laws. The laws were written by civil servants under the instructions of the Conservative government. The next general election will be a choice over whether to continue that Conservative government or not.
    That's true, but the instructions in this case effectively came from the doommongering modellers because the government was too weak to stand up to them, not least because Labour under Sir Keir and the media were all on their side.
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788
    tlg86 said:

    Presumably it will be presented by Ukraine's answer to... actually, who would host it if we won it? Whatever, it'll be here but very much Ukraine's show.
    The BBC's own press article about it suggests it's going to be a full BBC production and the cultural content will be shared with Ukraine. No host broadcaster or host city would give up the chance to toot their own horn so I'm guessing we'll get a big slice of British culture too.

    I think the hosts will be British or 1/2 Britons and 1/2 Ukrainians.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/mediacentre/2022/eurovision-2023-bbc-host-city-process-production-plans/
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,597

    I never said it was illegal.

    I said that it should have been legal for the rest of us instead of illegal and "reckless".
    It was legal for you to gather for the purposes of political campaigning and various other purposes. It was not legal for you to gather for another set of purposes that the Conservative government (supported by Labour in opposition) had decided were not as important.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Foxy said:

    Sadly a spoof account and story, I think.
    Yes. You have champagne in the cellar already, and buy the other stuff from people here precisely so they take this risk, not you.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,076

    Obesity is not caused by gluttony. It's caused by our lifestyles becoming more sedentary. Average calorie consumption is down in the UK. But our physically activity has declined by more.

    If we spend money on our built environment differently we can encourage people to walk or cycle more and drive less, and therefore reduce obesity.

    https://hbkportal.co.uk/index.php/geography/resourcereliance6/
    At best this is averages muddying the situation for the individual.

    Last year I lost 16 Kilos and have kept that weight off. I'll spare you from the details, but I acchieved this using a calorie counting app which was really easy to use.

    I was as surprised as maybe many of you will be reading this, that an increase in exercise made almost no contribution to the weight loss. The main reason for my sucessful weight loss was eating less (shock). And yes I have the data, analysis and graphs which can back this up.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,122
    edited July 2022

    Wasn't the slave trade involved there somewhere?
    Free Trade was rather one way. For example tariffs on Indian textiles coming here, while no tarrif on our exports.

    Very often our policy of free trade was conducted rather like a Special Military Operation, at the point of a gun.

    Other countries did this too of course, but it does make Free Trade a less successful policy when we are no longer able to militarily control the seas.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,520
    carnforth said:
    That's 4 years late! It is due, says Ofgem, in 2024.
    https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/energy-policy-and-regulation/policy-and-regulatory-programmes/interconnectors

    There are 4 others of the same size to the continent due by 2025 (France, France, Denmark, Norway), and one smaller one to the ROI. And one 1GW one to/from France just started up at the end of May.

    Though I suspect Penelope Portsmouth may have stopped one of those because she thinks it would make us vulnerable to the French.


  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,850
    RH1992 said:

    The BBC's own press article about it suggests it's going to be a full BBC production and the cultural content will be shared with Ukraine. No host broadcaster or host city would give up the chance to toot their own horn so I'm guessing we'll get a big slice of British culture too.

    I think the hosts will be British or 1/2 Britons and 1/2 Ukrainians.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/mediacentre/2022/eurovision-2023-bbc-host-city-process-production-plans/
    Probably should do that old trick of making the venue temporarily part of Ukraine (hope the Russians dont then bomb it!) for the duration of the show- Didnt that happen in wartime with some London Hotel where a room was made a part of Yugoslavia for some royal reason?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,222
    Fishing said:

    That's why the Tw@tterati hate him so much.
    Amazing that the Boris fanbois didn't seem to think him running away at the first whiff of Brillo's toupee glue was in any way disqualificatory.
  • Driver said:

    That's true, but the instructions in this case effectively came from the doommongering modellers because the government was too weak to stand up to them, not least because Labour under Sir Keir and the media were all on their side.
    Welcome back to the site.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Not really, no.

    The rise of Britain as an industrial power took place post-abolitionism.

    Medieval serfdom and slavery was about getting things done with as cheap labour as possible, the industrial revolution was about seeking to replace labour to be more productive.
    Business is always about doing stuff as cheaply as possible. The IR grew out of a slave economy; what do you think spinning jennies spun, where from?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,651
    Leon said:

    The state of UK politics. This is Starmer’s new economic philosophy

    “Starmer sets out 5 economic principles of a Labour government

    - Financially responsible
    - Distinctively British
    - Partnership with business
    - Help mothers bake apple pie
    - Re-energise communities
    - Invest to boost productivity”

    Only one of those was added by me

    Ah so you yearn for a more radical socialist offer then.

    We should have a pint sometime.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,576

    What is distinctly british though?
    Apples? No
    Pie? No
    Apple Pie? No

    We need to be pushing the things that are culturally unique - Fish and Chips, Bangers and Mash, Haggis, Black Pudding, Whisky, Cornish Pasties etc
    Britain does boast a unique variety of apple breeds
    eristdoof said:

    At best this is averages muddying the situation for the individual.

    Last year I lost 16 Kilos and have kept that weight off. I'll spare you from the details, but I acchieved this using a calorie counting app which was really easy to use.

    I was as surprised as maybe many of you will be reading this, that an increase in exercise made almost no contribution to the weight loss. The main reason for my sucessful weight loss was eating less (shock). And yes I have the data, analysis and graphs which can back this up.
    Is that true tho?

    Exercise doesn’t burn off many calories, per se - agreed. Don’t you have to walk 10 miles to burn off a Big Mac? Something like that

    And YET it helps in so many other ways. It makes you look better, which gives you positive motivation to continue losing weight, it boosts the mood by itself (as a hit of carbs does but in superior fashion) and it also speeds the metabolism, so what you eat gets used up faster

    It’s an essential part of a weight loss campaign
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560

    Amazing that the Boris fanbois didn't seem to think him running away at the first whiff of Brillo's toupee glue was in any way disqualificatory.
    His opponent, I will remind you, was Jeremy Corbyn.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,122
    Carnyx said:

    So nothing happened before 1830? Britain WAS the major industrial power then. And continued to rely on slave plantations for critical elements of the economy (much cotton; cheap calories in the form of sugar).
    Slave produced cotton came a bit later and sugar was a luxury commodity initially.

    The capital raised by forced labour and the manufacturing of manacles and chains etc in the Midlands were more of a factor in creating the conditions of industrialisation here.
  • Indeed, but Dennis Healey was incorrectly quoted as saying he would tax the rich until the pips squeaked. He didn't say it, but he did do it nonetheless
    He did say he'd "Squeeze property speculators until the pips squeak"

    A couple of weeks later at his first Budget, two Tory MPs wore Chairman Mao suits to celebrate Healey becoming the first former Communist Party member to deliver the Budget

  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,561
    edited July 2022

    Not really, no.

    The rise of Britain as an industrial power took place post-abolitionism.

    Medieval serfdom and slavery was about getting things done with as cheap labour as possible, the industrial revolution was about seeking to replace labour to be more productive.
    I dunno BR: Seems to me that at least one of the major inputs to said industrial economy had an awful lot to do with slavery.

    I also remember reading a paper that suggested that the large chunk of the capital that was invested in UK industry came from reparations paid to the slave owning middle classes by the UK government when they abolished slave ownership.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,459

    I hope he has found his five lights.
    Warner and Stewart first worked together in a production of Hamlet in 1965. Warner praised Stewart, who was early in his Shakespearean career at the time. Warner had previously appeared as different characters in two Star Trek films: St. John Talbot in Star Trek V: The Final Frontier and Chancellor Gorkon in Star Trek VI: The Undiscovered Country. The actor initially cast as Gul Madred in "Chain of Command" dropped out on short notice, and with only a few days before production, Warner had no opportunity to learn his lines. His dialogue was written onto boards for him to read out as he went along. He preferred the Madred character to either of his previous Star Trek characters because of the scenes with Stewart, which he called "wonderful"...
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,943
    RH1992 said:

    The BBC's own press article about it suggests it's going to be a full BBC production and the cultural content will be shared with Ukraine. No host broadcaster or host city would give up the chance to toot their own horn so I'm guessing we'll get a big slice of British culture too.

    I think the hosts will be British or 1/2 Britons and 1/2 Ukrainians.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/mediacentre/2022/eurovision-2023-bbc-host-city-process-production-plans/
    Eurovision? "Cultural content"? Which planet are we on.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,713
    edited July 2022
    kinabalu said:

    Ah so you yearn for a more radical socialist offer then.

    We should have a pint sometime.
    This bloke seems to have something different to offer, committing to renationalisation of water, energy and rail. They should make him leader.

    https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1235284093056712705
  • I was a SAGE participant, a “doommongering modeller” (I wasn’t doing modelling, but I was doing other mongering of doom). It is utterly ludicrous to suggest the Government did everything we wanted or was “too weak to stand up to them”. The Govt ignored lots of scientific advice, the Govt followed other scientific advice, the Govt drew on a range of advice from multiple stakeholders. Ultimately, what was done was the choice of our political leaders.
    Yes its fair to say that the Government, on a tiny minority of occasions, stood up against the doommongering.

    Not nearly enough though. And the Opposition did even less.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,122
    IshmaelZ said:

    Business is always about doing stuff as cheaply as possible. The IR grew out of a slave economy; what do you think spinning jennies spun, where from?
    The key invention for the cotton industry was the cotton gin, invented in the USA in 1794. Prior to this processing cotton on a large scale was uneconomic.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,222
    Eabhal said:

    I presume Truss will take Johnson's lead and chicken out. I was impressed that Sturgeon took him on last election, went predictably badly for her.
    Yep, really stuffed the EssEnnPee in that election.

    Altenatively most voters don't give a toss about 'GB News' Brillo, and those that do are already very established in their views.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,210

    I was a SAGE participant, a “doommongering modeller” (I wasn’t doing modelling, but I was doing other mongering of doom). It is utterly ludicrous to suggest the Government did everything we wanted or was “too weak to stand up to them”. The Govt ignored lots of scientific advice, the Govt followed other scientific advice, the Govt drew on a range of advice from multiple stakeholders. Ultimately, what was done was the choice of our political leaders.
    If the government was intimidated by anything it was the overwhelming public support for tougher restrictions, and the impact going against that would have had on their poll ratings. I think that is a far more realistic explanation why the instincts of some, but not all or even a clear majority, of the cabinet were rejected rather than them being scared of a few experts.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,527

    World’s smallest violins stuck in same queue:

    A lorry with £20,000 worth of perishable food destined for Jacob Rees-Mogg’s Somerset mansion is stuck in queues at Calais,according to a source.

    The luxury food haul- including seafood, oysters, saucisson & champagne- was for Rees-Mogg’s summer party today, but now won’t arrive


    https://twitter.com/GBNews_UK/status/1551300577514102786

    And what is wrong with Colchester native oysters? Or sparkling wine from Cornwall or Chapeldown? Do these people not realise how good British products are?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,336

    And what is wrong with Colchester native oysters? Or sparkling wine from Cornwall or Chapeldown? Do these people not realise how good British products are?
    It's a spoof account.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,943
    First we will be financially responsible.

    Second, we will be distinctively British.

    Third, we will work in partnership with business.

    Fourth, we will re energise communities and spread economic power.

    And fifth, we will refocus our investment on boosting productivity.


    SKS's great principles.

    The only meaningful political principles are ones whose denial or opposite are also meaningful. To govern is to choose. To govern well is to choose rightly. Do these principles make any choices at all?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,597

    Yes its fair to say that the Government, on a tiny minority of occasions, stood up against the doommongering.

    Not nearly enough though. And the Opposition did even less.
    Errant nonsense. There was tons of advice they chose not to follow. You can go read all the SAGE minutes for yourself.

    And that is how it should be: scientists offer advice (often contradictory), other stakeholders offer advice, and it has to be our political leaders who make the final decision. My experience of being in the room… or rather in the Zoom meetings… was precisely that. This myth that the doommongerers forced the Govt is conspiracy theory nonsense.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,341
    edited July 2022
    RobD said:

    It's a spoof account.
    The rather massive giveaway being no blue tick and a handful of followers.

    However when are twitter going to really crack down on spoof account ripping off logos etc.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560

    Yes its fair to say that the Government, on a tiny minority of occasions, stood up against the doommongering.

    Not nearly enough though. And the Opposition did even less.
    Specifically, they didn't stand up to them in spring 2020, allowing restrictions on our fundamental freedoms to become normalised.
  • jamesdoylejamesdoyle Posts: 797

    Probably should do that old trick of making the venue temporarily part of Ukraine (hope the Russians dont then bomb it!) for the duration of the show- Didnt that happen in wartime with some London Hotel where a room was made a part of Yugoslavia for some royal reason?
    Claridge suite 212, so that the Yugoslav crown prince could be born in Yugoslavia. If it's true...
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-36569675
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,527
    RobD said:

    It's a spoof account.
    Okay. Caught me!
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560

    If the government was intimidated by anything it was the overwhelming public support for tougher restrictions, and the impact going against that would have had on their poll ratings. I think that is a far more realistic explanation why the instincts of some, but not all or even a clear majority, of the cabinet were rejected rather than them being scared of a few experts.
    The public support for restrictions was a direct consequence of the doommongering being regurgitated uncritically by TV news.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,210
    algarkirk said:

    First we will be financially responsible.

    Second, we will be distinctively British.

    Third, we will work in partnership with business.

    Fourth, we will re energise communities and spread economic power.

    And fifth, we will refocus our investment on boosting productivity.


    SKS's great principles.

    The only meaningful political principles are ones whose denial or opposite are also meaningful. To govern is to choose. To govern well is to choose rightly. Do these principles make any choices at all?

    Well, four of the five would disqualify someone from being a member of Bluekip.
  • Driver is Contrarian?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,336

    Okay. Caught me!
    In any case, "these people" aren't the only one that eat/drink foreign produce. I'd bet that almost everyone does.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,690
    Foxy said:

    The key invention for the cotton industry was the cotton gin, invented in the USA in 1794. Prior to this processing cotton on a large scale was uneconomic.
    Worth saying that all the manufacturing improvements - resulted in increased slavery because the one thing that couldn't be fixed was harvesting cotton which at the time was a completely manual task...
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    I was a SAGE participant, a “doommongering modeller” (I wasn’t doing modelling, but I was doing other mongering of doom). It is utterly ludicrous to suggest the Government did everything we wanted or was “too weak to stand up to them”. The Govt ignored lots of scientific advice, the Govt followed other scientific advice, the Govt drew on a range of advice from multiple stakeholders. Ultimately, what was done was the choice of our political leaders.

    Fair point, but some SAGE committee people used the wall to wall covid media coverage to further their own ends.

    Could the government have insisted on a media blackout from SAGE people and insist all briefings were initially private?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,597
    The main thing I remember Government ignoring in terms of scientific advice on the pandemic was that we (the bit of SAGE I was on) were pushing for, to simplify, more carrot and less stick.

    More generally, every lockdown was introduced later that the scientific advice. Advice was to introduce earlier, and then you can expect to come out of lockdown sooner.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,576

    And what is wrong with Colchester native oysters? Or sparkling wine from Cornwall or Chapeldown? Do these people not realise how good British products are?
    British oysters are the best in the world

    “The only good thing to come out of Britain is oysters” - Pliny

    Namibia’s are next best. Then Sydney Rocks

    The oysters in Mauritius are the worst
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,527
    RobD said:

    In any case, "these people" aren't the only one that eat/drink foreign produce. I'd bet that almost everyone does.
    I'm a Rejoiner so it's allowed!
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,102
    Thinking about TSEs comment re. “Another leadership election before the next age”

    How long do MPs give Truss? Imagine in a years time, when the Labour lead looks bigger and everything else bleak as a result of Truss policy implementation. Presumably it is easier to remove her with such limited parliamentary support
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560

    Driver is Contrarian?

    No. Now let's not have guessing games.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    Driver said:

    The public support for restrictions was a direct consequence of the doommongering being regurgitated uncritically by TV news.
    Partly.

    Public support for restrictions was also the result of Rishi Sunak's lovely furlough panacea, which made all the problems go away.

    Until now....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,341
    edited July 2022

    Driver is Contrarian?

    Trying to "out" people isn't cool.

    If they change handle there might well be a good reason. There are a decent number of people on here who provide valuable insight but prefer not to be publicly known / lineage of their posting handles being dragged up e.g. We have had people whose employer has said to them about posting on here.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,086
    eristdoof said:

    At best this is averages muddying the situation for the individual.

    Last year I lost 16 Kilos and have kept that weight off. I'll spare you from the details, but I acchieved this using a calorie counting app which was really easy to use.

    I was as surprised as maybe many of you will be reading this, that an increase in exercise made almost no contribution to the weight loss. The main reason for my sucessful weight loss was eating less (shock). And yes I have the data, analysis and graphs which can back this up.
    When I worked for a company that was using Prudential as their private health care provider, we had their Vitality package. Big discounts on trainers, bikes, heart rate monitors, and lots of rewards based on how much activity you did - you signed up to upload data on exercise to their system, and you got rewards automatically.

    The number of people who actually did stuff, in my office soared. I believe that this actually pays for itself for Prudential by reducing the number of claims.

    A lot of people lost fat, if not weight. The numbers vary from individual to individual, but for some people getting your body into “build muscle” mode from “store energy in the time of plenty” mode can take a while.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,459
    Russia scraping the bottom of the barrel.

    https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1551504230183309313
    Russia is withdrawing 2S7 howitzers from storage at the 94th arsenal located in the city of Omsk. In early April, 170 2S7s were visible in GE imagery. In Planet imagery of June 2, 135 were visible. In the last available images, dated July 18, 110 howitzers were still stored.

    Stored outdoors for decades, where winter temperatures are around -25C; summer +25.

    Possible result (though this could simply be overuse before replacing the barrel) ?

    https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1551294834027249664
    A Russian 2S7(M) Pion/Malka 203mm self-propelled howitzer suffered a catastrophic barrel failure - likely due to serious wear.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,086

    And what is wrong with Colchester native oysters? Or sparkling wine from Cornwall or Chapeldown? Do these people not realise how good British products are?
    The clue that it is bullshit is the saucisson - which would probably last longer than the champagne in storage.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,627

    Don’t worry guys - the revenge of the Millennials will drag us back into the EU at some point and it will be glorious.

    In keeping with Brexit, if Breturn happens it will probably be to address problems which actually have relatively little to do with leaving the EU.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,597
    MISTY said:


    Fair point, but some SAGE committee people used the wall to wall covid media coverage to further their own ends.

    Could the government have insisted on a media blackout from SAGE people and insist all briefings were initially private?
    We live in a democracy with free speech. I don't see a problem with people with expertise on a topic talking to the media about it!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,222
    I believe there are a couple of Dundee Courier fans on here? Not sure if DC gave reasons for not wanting to publish this. I suspect most of us of whatever political persuasion will recognise some elements of 'the fear' and the strategies used to cope with it.



    https://twitter.com/murraychalmers/status/1551242814029176833?s=20&t=ywn_Aae4KRNnWf_Tej63mw
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 828
    Driver said:

    The public support for restrictions was a direct consequence of the doommongering being regurgitated uncritically by TV news.
    My support for restrictions was because some very close loved ones would have died had they caught COVID before being vaccinated you arrogant pig. Your sainted Boris nearly died because he ignored COVID prevention advice. One of the most reprehensible things those around Boris did to try and save his arse was to pretend that the sacrifices everyone made during COVID weren’t needed. They were.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,597

    When I worked for a company that was using Prudential as their private health care provider, we had their Vitality package. Big discounts on trainers, bikes, heart rate monitors, and lots of rewards based on how much activity you did - you signed up to upload data on exercise to their system, and you got rewards automatically.

    The number of people who actually did stuff, in my office soared. I believe that this actually pays for itself for Prudential by reducing the number of claims.

    A lot of people lost fat, if not weight. The numbers vary from individual to individual, but for some people getting your body into “build muscle” mode from “store energy in the time of plenty” mode can take a while.
    Exercise is very good for your health. Exercise has a small role to play in weight reduction.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,520
    Nigelb said:

    Russia scraping the bottom of the barrel.

    httpsA ://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1551504230183309313
    Russia is withdrawing 2S7 howitzers from storage at the 94th arsenal located in the city of Omsk. In early April, 170 2S7s were visible in GE imagery. In Planet imagery of June 2, 135 were visible. In the last available images, dated July 18, 110 howitzers were still stored.

    Stored outdoors for decades, where winter temperatures are around -25C; summer +25.

    Possible result (though this could simply be overuse before replacing the barrel) ?

    https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1551294834027249664
    A Russian 2S7(M) Pion/Malka 203mm self-propelled howitzer suffered a catastrophic barrel failure - likely due to serious wear.

    Wear is now reduced since the Ukes blew up most of the local ammunition.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    We live in a democracy with free speech. I don't see a problem with people with expertise on a topic talking to the media about it!
    Agreed, but I don't see why SAGE's advice could not have been published retrospectively in its entirety so people could judge for themselves after the event and in a much less febrile atmosphere.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,086
    Nigelb said:

    Russia scraping the bottom of the barrel.

    https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1551504230183309313
    Russia is withdrawing 2S7 howitzers from storage at the 94th arsenal located in the city of Omsk. In early April, 170 2S7s were visible in GE imagery. In Planet imagery of June 2, 135 were visible. In the last available images, dated July 18, 110 howitzers were still stored.

    Stored outdoors for decades, where winter temperatures are around -25C; summer +25.

    Possible result (though this could simply be overuse before replacing the barrel) ?

    https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1551294834027249664
    A Russian 2S7(M) Pion/Malka 203mm self-propelled howitzer suffered a catastrophic barrel failure - likely due to serious wear.

    There have been various statements that the quality of steel available for making replacements barrels in below specification.

    On the pic that was posted on a previous thread of an off centre bore in an alleged Russian weapons (might have been a 73mm off an APC?) - it looked as is it was a section cut from the middle of the barrel, not the end. Maybe the cutting tool shaft banana’d due to being pushed too hard?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,576

    I believe there are a couple of Dundee Courier fans on here? Not sure if DC gave reasons for not wanting to publish this. I suspect most of us of whatever political persuasion will recognise some elements of 'the fear' and the strategies used to cope with it.



    https://twitter.com/murraychalmers/status/1551242814029176833?s=20&t=ywn_Aae4KRNnWf_Tej63mw

    “I believe there are a couple of Dundee Courier fans on here?”

    Is possibly the most poignantly forlorn sentence ever posted on PB. It is also a glimpse of the parochial tedium that would be www.scottishpoliticalbetting.com if ever Sindy won. I bet the PB Nats would be back on PB within hours. Probably moaning about England

This discussion has been closed.