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Truss continues to be a 65% chance in the next PM betting – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited July 31 in General
imageTruss continues to be a 65% chance in the next PM betting – politicalbetting.com

With Tory members set to receive their ballot packs at the start of August real voting looks will start very soon.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,248
    Test
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,040
    edited July 25
    Second (moral first)!

    Sunak needs Truss to collapse in todays debate
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 2,822
    Bronze
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,795
    We're going to get a worse PM than Boris, aren't we?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,682
    edited July 25
    There is still some 2/1 Rishi with Boylesports.

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.54 Liz Truss 65%
    2.92 Rishi Sunak 34%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.53 Liz Truss 65%
    2.92 Rishi Sunak 34%
  • vikvik Posts: 157

    rcs1000 said:

    vik said:

    [BETTING QUESTION]
    My question is about why Liz Truss is still priced at around 1.56 on Betfair, when her lead over Sunak in membership polls is so overwhelming ?

    Because the markets hate Truss and keep assuming Sunak will bring people to their senses in debates.
    I don't think that's it.

    In party primaries, it's much more common to see a big change in support than in General Elections.
    Truss has already been seen in two TV debates, and, although there are two more to come, they are unlikely to move the dial unless she soils herself on stage.

    ... The markets keep pricing in a big event or revelation to move the dial.

    I don't think there is one.
    Be aware, the hustings are available on Zoom to those who haven't yet made up their minds.....

    (Although how there is anybody who thinks Truss better than Sunak is the mystery of our times.)
    Thanks. That being the case, I might watch one.

    I certainly think Truss will be better than Sunak in foreign policy and defence, but I think her economic policy reckless - so it will be Sunak for me.

    Maybe it's comments like this from me, you and other longstanding members that align with the predispositions of centrist-pundits that are deflating her price?
    I remember in the early days of PB there used to be arguments over whether being markets represented the wisdom of crowds, that could more accurately predict events than alternative methods.

    I think the problem here is that the crowd betting is very different to the crowd voting in the leadership election, and that's why there is a reluctance to do the obvious thing and back Truss to shorter odds.

    If Smarkets did a bit of outreach at vicars tea parties then I think we'd soon see Truss backed down to 1.1
    Thanks everyone for your very useful & interesting replies.

    And, yes, the variance between the betting crowd & the non-betting crowd is what makes betting on politics so interesting & potentially profitable. :smile:

    I think Sunak made a big big mistake by resigning & showing himself to be "disloyal" to Johnson. If he had been patient & stayed in the Cabinet & continued supporting Johnson then he might have won easily, particularly because I think he was pro-Brexit while Truss was pro-Remain.

    As it is, Sunak starts with a huge handicap that the approx 35% of Tory members who still support Johnson will never vote for one of the people who they feel "stabbed Johnson in the back".
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 6,598
    vik said:

    rcs1000 said:

    vik said:

    [BETTING QUESTION]
    My question is about why Liz Truss is still priced at around 1.56 on Betfair, when her lead over Sunak in membership polls is so overwhelming ?

    Because the markets hate Truss and keep assuming Sunak will bring people to their senses in debates.
    I don't think that's it.

    In party primaries, it's much more common to see a big change in support than in General Elections.
    Truss has already been seen in two TV debates, and, although there are two more to come, they are unlikely to move the dial unless she soils herself on stage.

    ... The markets keep pricing in a big event or revelation to move the dial.

    I don't think there is one.
    Be aware, the hustings are available on Zoom to those who haven't yet made up their minds.....

    (Although how there is anybody who thinks Truss better than Sunak is the mystery of our times.)
    Thanks. That being the case, I might watch one.

    I certainly think Truss will be better than Sunak in foreign policy and defence, but I think her economic policy reckless - so it will be Sunak for me.

    Maybe it's comments like this from me, you and other longstanding members that align with the predispositions of centrist-pundits that are deflating her price?
    I remember in the early days of PB there used to be arguments over whether being markets represented the wisdom of crowds, that could more accurately predict events than alternative methods.

    I think the problem here is that the crowd betting is very different to the crowd voting in the leadership election, and that's why there is a reluctance to do the obvious thing and back Truss to shorter odds.

    If Smarkets did a bit of outreach at vicars tea parties then I think we'd soon see Truss backed down to 1.1
    Thanks everyone for your very useful & interesting replies.

    And, yes, the variance between the betting crowd & the non-betting crowd is what makes betting on politics so interesting & potentially profitable. :smile:

    I think Sunak made a big big mistake by resigning & showing himself to be "disloyal" to Johnson. If he had been patient & stayed in the Cabinet & continued supporting Johnson then he might have won easily, particularly because I think he was pro-Brexit while Truss was pro-Remain.

    As it is, Sunak starts with a huge handicap that the approx 35% of Tory members who still support Johnson will never vote for one of the people who they feel "stabbed Johnson in the back".
    Sunak's resignation managed to fall between two stools. Much too.late to pick up the principled tag, but too early to avoid the ire of Continuity Bozza.

    But his real sin was honesty about the need to raise taxes.
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 648
    IanB2 said:

    Second (moral first)!

    Sunak needs Truss to collapse in todays debate

    Is there a market on what Truss will wear? I predict a single string of pearls.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,521
    edited July 25
    The crisis is that the Home Office is grabbing the headlines with its fantasy plans, fighting with Bishops and lawyers, but has no stamina or grip or energy for doing the job. Applications were pretty flat (though now rising) but decisions collapsed before Covid then stopped. https://t.co/C78L4vVkS2

    This is a pretty damning graph of the incompetence of the Home Office under May and Patel:


  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 9,127
    Foxy said:

    The crisis is that the Home Office is grabbing the headlines with its fantasy plans, fighting with Bishops and lawyers, but has no stamina or grip or energy for doing the job. Applications were pretty flat (though now rising) but decisions collapsed before Covid then stopped. https://t.co/C78L4vVkS2

    This is a pretty damning graph of the incompetence of the Home Office under May and Patel:


    That is an incredible graph. No wonder they are so desperate to distract with their vile Rwanda bullshit. Cruel and incompetent.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 9,127
    Icarus said:

    IanB2 said:

    Second (moral first)!

    Sunak needs Truss to collapse in todays debate

    Is there a market on what Truss will wear? I predict a single string of pearls.
    And nothing else?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 55,591
    More on the latest SNP sex scandal:

    THE SNP has refused to say what it knew about a sexual misconduct allegation against one of the party’s rising stars before he was allowed to become a council leader.

    Opposition parties said the SNP would be “sullied” if it failed to address the controversy around Jordan Linden, the newly installed £45,000-a-year leader of North Lanarkshire.


    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/20441814.snp-embroiled-new-sexual-misconduct-scandal/

    Curious that Linden withdrew his bid to become an MP just 4 days after the alleged incident….
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,521
    edited July 25

    Foxy said:

    The crisis is that the Home Office is grabbing the headlines with its fantasy plans, fighting with Bishops and lawyers, but has no stamina or grip or energy for doing the job. Applications were pretty flat (though now rising) but decisions collapsed before Covid then stopped. https://t.co/C78L4vVkS2

    This is a pretty damning graph of the incompetence of the Home Office under May and Patel:


    That is an incredible graph. No wonder they are so desperate to distract with their vile Rwanda bullshit. Cruel and incompetent.
    Performative cruelty is no substitute for competent performance.

    Yet the debate tonight will be about tax cuts and the Rwanda scheme. It is cloud cuckoo land.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 55,591
    It is clear that we need a Thatcher or a Blair in No 10 – a dynamic PM who arrives with a sharp analysis of the problems, a series of well-­considered policies to tackle them, and an electoral mandate to crack on. Instead, Britain has been ill served by the Hungry Hippos of Westminster, who have played a grasping game of self-advancement while waving jars of snake oil at the electorate. There have been too many crackpots and chancers and, as a result, our difficulties, untended, have only grown, which in turn has only produced more crackpots and chancers.

    Truss, it must be said, does not offer an obvious route out of this vicious circle. Her Thatcher fixation is unnerving, like a particularly surreal episode of Stars In Their Eyes. From the restyled bouffant to the copycat outfits to the recent lowering of the voice (Thatcher had lessons to deepen and slow her delivery), it is all deeply weird and doesn’t suggest someone entirely at peace with themselves.


    https://www.sundaypost.com/fp/liz-truss-thatcher/
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 2,478

    We're going to get a worse PM than Boris, aren't we?

    Well at least it won't be Braverman or Patel.
    The trouble is that the end of Boris means that the various factions of tory MP's will be squabbling amongst themselves and screaming betrayal.
    In all likelihood the new PM will lack authority and neither Sunak nor Truss will be able to get much done.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,795
    Foxy said:

    The crisis is that the Home Office is grabbing the headlines with its fantasy plans, fighting with Bishops and lawyers, but has no stamina or grip or energy for doing the job. Applications were pretty flat (though now rising) but decisions collapsed before Covid then stopped. https://t.co/C78L4vVkS2

    This is a pretty damning graph of the incompetence of the Home Office under May and Patel:


    What is the cause of that collapse?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,697
    Foxy said:

    Performative cruelty is no substitute for competent performance.

    Yet the debate tonight will be about tax cuts and the Rwanda scheme. It is cloud cuckoo land.

    The folk that voted for BoZo and Brexit (and will vote for Truss) are not motivated by reality...
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,086

    Foxy said:

    The crisis is that the Home Office is grabbing the headlines with its fantasy plans, fighting with Bishops and lawyers, but has no stamina or grip or energy for doing the job. Applications were pretty flat (though now rising) but decisions collapsed before Covid then stopped. https://t.co/C78L4vVkS2

    This is a pretty damning graph of the incompetence of the Home Office under May and Patel:


    What is the cause of that collapse?
    Someone might have suggested they consider the initial applications properly instead of simply taking out the "Denied" stamp?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 55,591

    We're going to get a worse PM than Boris, aren't we?

    Not yet clear. There’s a chance either of the contenders grows into the job - as did Major despite being relatively unknown and inexperienced. At least neither of them leave a trail of serial dishonesty in their wake. That at least will be progress.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,697

    We're going to get a worse PM than Boris, aren't we?

    Yes. Yes, we are.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 14,440
    Do we have any Blue Badge users? Have you been given parking tickets in EU countries for using Blue Badge parking facilities?

    Strange possibly untrue story on the BBC - "Blue Badges may be refused in some EU countries".
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-62287752

    Yet Blue Badge recognition is based on Membership of the International Transport Forum, and as full members we get mutual-recognition, as it shows here. Nothing to do with the EU.
    https://www.itf-oecd.org/reciprocal-recognition-parking-badges

    There's even a rentaquote from a man at the AA, when his own website says that people with Blue Badges can use the badge anywhere in the EU.
    https://www.theaa.com/european-breakdown-cover/driving-in-europe/blue-badge-users

    Questionable Govt Guidance seems to be the root of this:
    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/blue-badge-using-it-in-the-eu/using-a-blue-badge-in-the-european-union
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,697
    A new poll that asked Conservative voters who would be the best PM shows that the UK's current PM Boris Johnson came out on top, trumping Tory leadership candidates Rishi Sunak MP and Liz Truss MP who are battling for the top job.

    https://trib.al/dwvcRFT

    📺 Sky 501 and YouTube https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1551450786076434434/video/1
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 19,803
    Icarus said:

    IanB2 said:

    Second (moral first)!

    Sunak needs Truss to collapse in todays debate

    Is there a market on what Truss will wear? I predict a single string of pearls.
    And nothing else?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 3,896
    Wasn't there something about members being able to vote by post or online and a later vote overriding an earlier vote? So members could vote early, change mind and then change vote? Or do I remetthat wrong?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 55,591
    “China is the biggest long-term threat to Britain, Rishi Sunak will say on Monday as he unveils plans to curb the country’s soft power by closing all of its 30 Confucius Institutes, which promote the teaching of Chinese language and culture, in the UK.”

    https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1551449611839176706
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,697
    Selebian said:

    Wasn't there something about members being able to vote by post or online and a later vote overriding an earlier vote? So members could vote early, change mind and then change vote? Or do I remetthat wrong?

    That is the plan. And some members are not happy about it
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,663

    “China is the biggest long-term threat to Britain, Rishi Sunak will say on Monday as he unveils plans to curb the country’s soft power by closing all of its 30 Confucius Institutes, which promote the teaching of Chinese language and culture, in the UK.”

    https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1551449611839176706

    Project fear?
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 648
    Selebian said:

    Wasn't there something about members being able to vote by post or online and a later vote overriding an earlier vote? So members could vote early, change mind and then change vote? Or do I remetthat wrong?

    More significantly under the rules members have to be "Active Members" on the day before the vote closes. Thus votes of non-active members will not be counted.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,402
    Ed Balls interviewing Rachel Reeves on GMB. He’s very good!
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,663

    Icarus said:

    IanB2 said:

    Second (moral first)!

    Sunak needs Truss to collapse in todays debate

    Is there a market on what Truss will wear? I predict a single string of pearls.
    And nothing else?
    A pearl necklace?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 19,803
    This NHS staffing disaster is another example of how this government refuses to accept reality. It insists that it is hiring a gazillion new nurses and doctors, and yet numbers continue to drop. Because it isn't just training new ones that is needed, it is staff retention and staff rehire.

    I assume that as the entire cabinet and many in the Tory party all have private medical - who are befitting from the outflux of doctors from the NHS - that they don't know or care.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,432
    edited July 25
    Scott_xP said:

    We're going to get a worse PM than Boris, aren't we?

    Yes. Yes, we are.
    We’re really not. Johnson now tops Goderich as the worst PM of all time by the proverbial distance.

    The issue with Truss is she would be no better.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,697

    This NHS staffing disaster is another example of how this government refuses to accept reality. It insists that it is hiring a gazillion new nurses and doctors, and yet numbers continue to drop. Because it isn't just training new ones that is needed, it is staff retention and staff rehire.

    I assume that as the entire cabinet and many in the Tory party all have private medical - who are befitting from the outflux of doctors from the NHS - that they don't know or care.

    Private health insurance, like BUPA, is no help if you have a heart attack
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,438
    Still nothing on Twitter on this supposed scandal about the British cabinet member, talked of in hushed tones in Finland. You do get some juice when you type super injunction in but nothing to concern the (this) govt.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,902
    edited July 25
    What makes Truss potentially so dangerous is that, unlike Johnson, she:
    1. Actually believes what she says
    2. Is not bone idle
    Put those two together and the damage she could do is pretty sizeable.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,697

    What makes Truss potentially so dangerous is that, unlike Johnson, she:
    1. Actually believes what she says
    2. Is not bone idle
    Put those two together and the damage she could do is pretty sizeable.

    I am not sure she actually does believe what she says, given how often it contradicts what she said previously, but she does believe in doing things, which is a problem.

    She will make BoZo look like a competent, diligent statesman in comparison.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,040

    Icarus said:

    IanB2 said:

    Second (moral first)!

    Sunak needs Truss to collapse in todays debate

    Is there a market on what Truss will wear? I predict a single string of pearls.
    And nothing else?
    That’ll be the photoshopped version?
  • What makes Truss potentially so dangerous is that, unlike Johnson, she:
    1. Actually believes what she says
    2. Is not bone idle
    Put those two together and the damage she could do is pretty sizeable.

    You say damage, I say progress.

    Worth a roll of the dice.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,146
    Scott_xP said:

    A new poll that asked Conservative voters who would be the best PM shows that the UK's current PM Boris Johnson came out on top, trumping Tory leadership candidates Rishi Sunak MP and Liz Truss MP who are battling for the top job.

    https://trib.al/dwvcRFT

    📺 Sky 501 and YouTube https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1551450786076434434/video/1

    I actually wouldn't take that too seriously. There's always an incumbency bias to any sitting PM; because they're already "doing" the job and people have experienced that tautology does the rest - they are best PM because they are the PM.
  • Foxy said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-62267282

    "The large number of unfilled NHS job vacancies is posing a serious risk to patient safety, a report by MPs says.

    It found England is now short of 12,000 hospital doctors and more than 50,000 nurses and midwives, calling this the worst workforce crisis in NHS history."

    I expect the biggest real terms pay cut in decades will sort that out.



    The problem is that the NHS has to run to stand still, and that challenge gets worse every year - more people live for longer with more chronic conditions all of whom require more people treating them for longer with more new (and expensive) drugs coming on the market all the time that make more things treatable too. And so on.

    Of course, all those staff want real-terms salary increases each year too (who doesn't?) and so the NHS needs to consume an ever greater proportion of national income each and every year - it probably needs a budget increase of 9-10% every year just to stop it getting worse - just to deliver its decidedly average service.

    This isn't sustainable. I don't see any party with answers.
    And of course at the same time as the NHS needs all that funding, so too does social care and pensions and assorted sweeties are demanded too.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,902
    Scott_xP said:

    What makes Truss potentially so dangerous is that, unlike Johnson, she:
    1. Actually believes what she says
    2. Is not bone idle
    Put those two together and the damage she could do is pretty sizeable.

    I am not sure she actually does believe what she says, given how often it contradicts what she said previously, but she does believe in doing things, which is a problem.

    She will make BoZo look like a competent, diligent statesman in comparison.
    I think she believes what she says but doesn’t know why!

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,146

    Foxy said:

    The crisis is that the Home Office is grabbing the headlines with its fantasy plans, fighting with Bishops and lawyers, but has no stamina or grip or energy for doing the job. Applications were pretty flat (though now rising) but decisions collapsed before Covid then stopped. https://t.co/C78L4vVkS2

    This is a pretty damning graph of the incompetence of the Home Office under May and Patel:


    What is the cause of that collapse?
    I don't know but Amber Rudd was replaced by Sajid Javid in April 2018, when there was a cliff drop.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 14,440
    edited July 25

    “China is the biggest long-term threat to Britain, Rishi Sunak will say on Monday as he unveils plans to curb the country’s soft power by closing all of its 30 Confucius Institutes, which promote the teaching of Chinese language and culture, in the UK.”

    https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1551449611839176706

    Project fear?
    Whose project fear?

    At least 50 have been closed by their hosting Universities.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criticism_of_Confucius_Institutes
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,902

    What makes Truss potentially so dangerous is that, unlike Johnson, she:
    1. Actually believes what she says
    2. Is not bone idle
    Put those two together and the damage she could do is pretty sizeable.

    You say damage, I say progress.

    Worth a roll of the dice.
    All I know for certain is that if it goes wrong Truss’s supporters will blame everyone but her (and themselves).

  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,580

    Foxy said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-62267282

    "The large number of unfilled NHS job vacancies is posing a serious risk to patient safety, a report by MPs says.

    It found England is now short of 12,000 hospital doctors and more than 50,000 nurses and midwives, calling this the worst workforce crisis in NHS history."

    I expect the biggest real terms pay cut in decades will sort that out.



    The problem is that the NHS has to run to stand still, and that challenge gets worse every year - more people live for longer with more chronic conditions all of whom require more people treating them for longer with more new (and expensive) drugs coming on the market all the time that make more things treatable too. And so on.

    Of course, all those staff want real-terms salary increases each year too (who doesn't?) and so the NHS needs to consume an ever greater proportion of national income each and every year - it probably needs a budget increase of 9-10% every year just to stop it getting worse - just to deliver its decidedly average service.

    This isn't sustainable. I don't see any party with answers.
    There are lots of answers, but they all involve ditching the Bevanite delusion of free health care for all all the time, so we won't implement them until we really have to.

    I just hope we do before the NHS strangles the economy. Already, unkind but accurate foreigners describe us as a health service with a country attached.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 4,645

    “China is the biggest long-term threat to Britain, Rishi Sunak will say on Monday as he unveils plans to curb the country’s soft power by closing all of its 30 Confucius Institutes, which promote the teaching of Chinese language and culture, in the UK.”

    https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1551449611839176706

    China really isnt the biggest long term threat and quite a paranoid and insular thing to do
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,432
    I am just watching the French Grand Prix, having been out all yesterday.

    Has anyone checked Ferrari's bank account to see if they are secretly in the pay of Red Bull and Mercedes?

    Their incompetence is just incredible. If I were Carlos Sainz I would be looking for a new drive next year.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,146
    Scott_xP said:

    This NHS staffing disaster is another example of how this government refuses to accept reality. It insists that it is hiring a gazillion new nurses and doctors, and yet numbers continue to drop. Because it isn't just training new ones that is needed, it is staff retention and staff rehire.

    I assume that as the entire cabinet and many in the Tory party all have private medical - who are befitting from the outflux of doctors from the NHS - that they don't know or care.

    Private health insurance, like BUPA, is no help if you have a heart attack
    So maybe A&E and emergency care should always be prioritised in budgetary terms above chronic condition treatment and elective care?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,697
    Nutters...

    Hi it’s not a 3 way ballot. It’s a separate Yes/No ballot - a Boris ballot - on whether to keep or dismiss Boris. The other ballot with Sunak / Truss on it doesn’t change. So no split votes. If No, Truss hopefully wins; if Yes Boris stays as PM but with new policies & team. https://twitter.com/jonw101961/status/1551140831712641024
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 55,591

    “China is the biggest long-term threat to Britain, Rishi Sunak will say on Monday as he unveils plans to curb the country’s soft power by closing all of its 30 Confucius Institutes, which promote the teaching of Chinese language and culture, in the UK.”

    https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1551449611839176706

    China really isnt the biggest long term threat and quite a paranoid and insular thing to do
    Which country do you see as the biggest long term threat?

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 101,102
    With Truss having a clear lead in membership polling it does look like Sunak needs a knock out blow in tonight's BBC debate
  • TazTaz Posts: 5,426

    Good morning ladies and gentlemen!

    As someone whose health situation seems to be deteriorating by the day I am extremely concerned by the headlines about lack of NHS staff. If I stop posting soon it may be that my hands are sufficiently immobilised to prevent me opening the computer; typing is already beyond me, so I'm dictating. And sometimes the result is very odd indeed; I didn't think my accent was that strange!
    At time of "writing" I can dictate but have to edit a few words, which sometimes takes a while!

    Wishing you well OKC.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,145
    Mr. Doethur, Sainz also had to refuse their strategy call (rightly) in Monaco, as well as pointing out it was a 5s penalty not a 5s stop and go penalty (which is very different).

    And that's before we get to the team calling him as he was finally passing Perez.

    Sometimes I think being a Ferrari fan must be the motorsport equivalent of Greek Hell. Just when the grapes are within reach, they recede. Just as the boulder is near the summit, it rolls all the way back down.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 4,645

    “China is the biggest long-term threat to Britain, Rishi Sunak will say on Monday as he unveils plans to curb the country’s soft power by closing all of its 30 Confucius Institutes, which promote the teaching of Chinese language and culture, in the UK.”

    https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1551449611839176706

    China really isnt the biggest long term threat and quite a paranoid and insular thing to do
    Which country do you see as the biggest long term threat?

    i dont really see any - or have any confidence anyone's perceived long term threats (in terms of countries) is correct. Anyone who thinks they can see the world in 30 years time is deluded for a start. Beyond that this is just paranoia - better to cooperate and be friendly
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,146

    What makes Truss potentially so dangerous is that, unlike Johnson, she:
    1. Actually believes what she says
    2. Is not bone idle
    Put those two together and the damage she could do is pretty sizeable.

    You say damage, I say progress.

    Worth a roll of the dice.
    All I know for certain is that if it goes wrong Truss’s supporters will blame everyone but her (and themselves).

    All I know for certain is that regardless of who the Tories pick or why or what they do in office you will blame them for everything any anything (regardless of cause) and say they're the worst PM in your lifetime, a threat to democracy and the country is on its knees.
  • TazTaz Posts: 5,426
    tlg86 said:

    Ed Balls interviewing Rachel Reeves on GMB. He’s very good!

    You cannot blame him not wanting to go back into mainstream politics.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,663

    We're going to get a worse PM than Boris, aren't we?

    Not yet clear. There’s a chance either of the contenders grows into the job - as did Major despite being relatively unknown and inexperienced. At least neither of them leave a trail of serial dishonesty in their wake. That at least will be progress.
    It's a deck chairs and Titanic situation really.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,145
    Mr. Away, Germany tried being co-operative and friendly with Russia. Didn't work out so well.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,146

    Good morning ladies and gentlemen!

    As someone whose health situation seems to be deteriorating by the day I am extremely concerned by the headlines about lack of NHS staff. If I stop posting soon it may be that my hands are sufficiently immobilised to prevent me opening the computer; typing is already beyond me, so I'm dictating. And sometimes the result is very odd indeed; I didn't think my accent was that strange!
    At time of "writing" I can dictate but have to edit a few words, which sometimes takes a while!

    Very sorry to hear that OKC. Wish you all the best.
  • “China is the biggest long-term threat to Britain, Rishi Sunak will say on Monday as he unveils plans to curb the country’s soft power by closing all of its 30 Confucius Institutes, which promote the teaching of Chinese language and culture, in the UK.”

    https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1551449611839176706

    China really isnt the biggest long term threat and quite a paranoid and insular thing to do
    Which country do you see as the biggest long term threat?

    i dont really see any - or have any confidence anyone's perceived long term threats (in terms of countries) is correct. Anyone who thinks they can see the world in 30 years time is deluded for a start. Beyond that this is just paranoia - better to cooperate and be friendly
    We can seek to cooperate and be friendly with our allies but denying that China is a threat is taking naivety to extremes. They are worse than Russia and if they invade Taiwan it would make our current CoL crisis look like a minor hiccup in comparison.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,146
    Fishing said:

    Foxy said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-62267282

    "The large number of unfilled NHS job vacancies is posing a serious risk to patient safety, a report by MPs says.

    It found England is now short of 12,000 hospital doctors and more than 50,000 nurses and midwives, calling this the worst workforce crisis in NHS history."

    I expect the biggest real terms pay cut in decades will sort that out.



    The problem is that the NHS has to run to stand still, and that challenge gets worse every year - more people live for longer with more chronic conditions all of whom require more people treating them for longer with more new (and expensive) drugs coming on the market all the time that make more things treatable too. And so on.

    Of course, all those staff want real-terms salary increases each year too (who doesn't?) and so the NHS needs to consume an ever greater proportion of national income each and every year - it probably needs a budget increase of 9-10% every year just to stop it getting worse - just to deliver its decidedly average service.

    This isn't sustainable. I don't see any party with answers.
    There are lots of answers, but they all involve ditching the Bevanite delusion of free health care for all all the time, so we won't implement them until we really have to.

    I just hope we do before the NHS strangles the economy. Already, unkind but accurate foreigners describe us as a health service with a country attached.
    Well, indeed. But in this country the NHS is the national religion.

    Religions don't fall easily.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,902

    What makes Truss potentially so dangerous is that, unlike Johnson, she:
    1. Actually believes what she says
    2. Is not bone idle
    Put those two together and the damage she could do is pretty sizeable.

    You say damage, I say progress.

    Worth a roll of the dice.
    All I know for certain is that if it goes wrong Truss’s supporters will blame everyone but her (and themselves).

    All I know for certain is that regardless of who the Tories pick or why or what they do in office you will blame them for everything any anything (regardless of cause) and say they're the worst PM in your lifetime, a threat to democracy and the country is on its knees.
    Well, they have been in power for 52 of the last 77 years.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 55,591
    What’s important to Nad:

    .⁦@trussliz⁩ will be travelling the country wearing her earrings which cost circa £4.50 from Claire Accessories. Meanwhile…

    Rishi visits Teeside in Prada shoes worth £450 and sported £3,500 bespoke suit as he prepared for crunch leadership vote.


    https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1551459390502440960
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 55,591

    What makes Truss potentially so dangerous is that, unlike Johnson, she:
    1. Actually believes what she says
    2. Is not bone idle
    Put those two together and the damage she could do is pretty sizeable.

    You say damage, I say progress.

    Worth a roll of the dice.
    All I know for certain is that if it goes wrong Truss’s supporters will blame everyone but her (and themselves).

    All I know for certain is that regardless of who the Tories pick or why or what they do in office you will blame them for everything any anything (regardless of cause) and say they're the worst PM in your lifetime, a threat to democracy and the country is on its knees.
    Well, they have been in power for 52 of the last 77 years.

    Must be doing something right…..

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,146
    What I don't understand is the endless stream of bullying, sexism and racism claims - there's another story this morning - that come from of the NHS, which is supposed to be our most venerated and revered institution?

    Where do they all come from?

    What drives this culture?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 1,749
    Fishing said:

    Foxy said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-62267282

    "The large number of unfilled NHS job vacancies is posing a serious risk to patient safety, a report by MPs says.

    It found England is now short of 12,000 hospital doctors and more than 50,000 nurses and midwives, calling this the worst workforce crisis in NHS history."

    I expect the biggest real terms pay cut in decades will sort that out.



    The problem is that the NHS has to run to stand still, and that challenge gets worse every year - more people live for longer with more chronic conditions all of whom require more people treating them for longer with more new (and expensive) drugs coming on the market all the time that make more things treatable too. And so on.

    Of course, all those staff want real-terms salary increases each year too (who doesn't?) and so the NHS needs to consume an ever greater proportion of national income each and every year - it probably needs a budget increase of 9-10% every year just to stop it getting worse - just to deliver its decidedly average service.

    This isn't sustainable. I don't see any party with answers.
    There are lots of answers, but they all involve ditching the Bevanite delusion of free health care for all all the time, so we won't implement them until we really have to.

    I just hope we do before the NHS strangles the economy. Already, unkind but accurate foreigners describe us as a health service with a country attached.
    UK healthcare spending as a proportion of GDP is about average in the OECD and very low compared to most of the G7: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthcaresystem/articles/howdoesukhealthcarespendingcomparewithothercountries/2019-08-29 The US spends more than 2.5 times as much per person than we do, yet we have better health outcomes.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,432
    edited July 25

    Mr. Away, Germany tried being co-operative and friendly with Russia. Didn't work out so well.

    Russia is a country that has literally gone insane.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62287502

    Even if their claims were true, which - to put it mildly - seems unlikely given their record, this would be a matter for the Ukrainian government not them.

    I do hope that Putin, Bortnikov, Lavrov, Medvedev Shoigu and Mishustin all shortly suffer the fate they richly deserve - that of Muamar Gaddafi.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,902

    “China is the biggest long-term threat to Britain, Rishi Sunak will say on Monday as he unveils plans to curb the country’s soft power by closing all of its 30 Confucius Institutes, which promote the teaching of Chinese language and culture, in the UK.”

    https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1551449611839176706

    China really isnt the biggest long term threat and quite a paranoid and insular thing to do
    China is the biggest threat the US faces. Russia is the biggest threat Europe faces. That will become a much, much bigger problem for us if (when?) the Republicans win the presidency in 2024.

  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 6,637
    edited July 25

    Fishing said:

    Foxy said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-62267282

    "The large number of unfilled NHS job vacancies is posing a serious risk to patient safety, a report by MPs says.

    It found England is now short of 12,000 hospital doctors and more than 50,000 nurses and midwives, calling this the worst workforce crisis in NHS history."

    I expect the biggest real terms pay cut in decades will sort that out.



    The problem is that the NHS has to run to stand still, and that challenge gets worse every year - more people live for longer with more chronic conditions all of whom require more people treating them for longer with more new (and expensive) drugs coming on the market all the time that make more things treatable too. And so on.

    Of course, all those staff want real-terms salary increases each year too (who doesn't?) and so the NHS needs to consume an ever greater proportion of national income each and every year - it probably needs a budget increase of 9-10% every year just to stop it getting worse - just to deliver its decidedly average service.

    This isn't sustainable. I don't see any party with answers.
    There are lots of answers, but they all involve ditching the Bevanite delusion of free health care for all all the time, so we won't implement them until we really have to.

    I just hope we do before the NHS strangles the economy. Already, unkind but accurate foreigners describe us as a health service with a country attached.
    UK healthcare spending as a proportion of GDP is about average in the OECD and very low compared to most of the G7: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthcaresystem/articles/howdoesukhealthcarespendingcomparewithothercountries/2019-08-29 The US spends more than 2.5 times as much per person than we do, yet we have better health outcomes.
    The US "healthcare" system is a corruption system with some healthcare attached. They have many laws literally to prevent competition and efficiencies in the healthcare system.

    Nobody rational compares to them.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,432

    What’s important to Nad:

    .⁦@trussliz⁩ will be travelling the country wearing her earrings which cost circa £4.50 from Claire Accessories. Meanwhile…

    Rishi visits Teeside in Prada shoes worth £450 and sported £3,500 bespoke suit as he prepared for crunch leadership vote.


    https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1551459390502440960

    So Truss spent six times the price of a pint of milk on crap jewellery?

    That. Is. A. Disgrace.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,438
    edited July 25

    “China is the biggest long-term threat to Britain, Rishi Sunak will say on Monday as he unveils plans to curb the country’s soft power by closing all of its 30 Confucius Institutes, which promote the teaching of Chinese language and culture, in the UK.”

    https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1551449611839176706

    China really isnt the biggest long term threat and quite a paranoid and insular thing to do
    Of course it is. This version of the Chinese Communist Party explicitly defines itself as an adversary of the West and its policy actions are first passed through the internal prism of whether it helps China in its quest for long term technological, economic and military dominance. Further than that, the promotion of Han culture at the expense of all else makes this very close to a 1930s fascist ideology.

    And by the way, China apologists have still to explain why the Party was exerting the full force of their diplomatic pressure to keep international air routes from Wuhan open just prior to CNY 2020, at a time they were planning unprecedented domestic restrictions for a virus they’d known about for months and already had high confidence was aerosolised.

    I don’t know whether Sunak really understands much of this still. He can’t do really, because he showed no interest whatever in his time as Chancellor in improving this country’s resilience to economic warfare (or traditional defence).

    Interestingly I am hearing feint glimmers that Xi’s anointment for a third term at the National Congress this winter is not as sure as it looks, with a full on power struggle well underway with plenty of mysterious deaths going on. Zero Covid seems to be acting as the lightning rod for opposition among elites. Low probability it comes to anything but you never know.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,146

    Fishing said:

    Foxy said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-62267282

    "The large number of unfilled NHS job vacancies is posing a serious risk to patient safety, a report by MPs says.

    It found England is now short of 12,000 hospital doctors and more than 50,000 nurses and midwives, calling this the worst workforce crisis in NHS history."

    I expect the biggest real terms pay cut in decades will sort that out.



    The problem is that the NHS has to run to stand still, and that challenge gets worse every year - more people live for longer with more chronic conditions all of whom require more people treating them for longer with more new (and expensive) drugs coming on the market all the time that make more things treatable too. And so on.

    Of course, all those staff want real-terms salary increases each year too (who doesn't?) and so the NHS needs to consume an ever greater proportion of national income each and every year - it probably needs a budget increase of 9-10% every year just to stop it getting worse - just to deliver its decidedly average service.

    This isn't sustainable. I don't see any party with answers.
    There are lots of answers, but they all involve ditching the Bevanite delusion of free health care for all all the time, so we won't implement them until we really have to.

    I just hope we do before the NHS strangles the economy. Already, unkind but accurate foreigners describe us as a health service with a country attached.
    UK healthcare spending as a proportion of GDP is about average in the OECD and very low compared to most of the G7: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthcaresystem/articles/howdoesukhealthcarespendingcomparewithothercountries/2019-08-29 The US spends more than 2.5 times as much per person than we do, yet we have better health outcomes.
    Yes, but the difference there (e.g. in France, Germany, Switzerland and Australia) is that they inject much more through the private and third sector.

    Constant comparisons of the NHS to the US is a tired age-old tactic, and the sign of a limited mind.

    There are dozens of far better models out there.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 1,749

    Fishing said:

    Foxy said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-62267282

    "The large number of unfilled NHS job vacancies is posing a serious risk to patient safety, a report by MPs says.

    It found England is now short of 12,000 hospital doctors and more than 50,000 nurses and midwives, calling this the worst workforce crisis in NHS history."

    I expect the biggest real terms pay cut in decades will sort that out.



    The problem is that the NHS has to run to stand still, and that challenge gets worse every year - more people live for longer with more chronic conditions all of whom require more people treating them for longer with more new (and expensive) drugs coming on the market all the time that make more things treatable too. And so on.

    Of course, all those staff want real-terms salary increases each year too (who doesn't?) and so the NHS needs to consume an ever greater proportion of national income each and every year - it probably needs a budget increase of 9-10% every year just to stop it getting worse - just to deliver its decidedly average service.

    This isn't sustainable. I don't see any party with answers.
    There are lots of answers, but they all involve ditching the Bevanite delusion of free health care for all all the time, so we won't implement them until we really have to.

    I just hope we do before the NHS strangles the economy. Already, unkind but accurate foreigners describe us as a health service with a country attached.
    UK healthcare spending as a proportion of GDP is about average in the OECD and very low compared to most of the G7: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthcaresystem/articles/howdoesukhealthcarespendingcomparewithothercountries/2019-08-29 The US spends more than 2.5 times as much per person than we do, yet we have better health outcomes.
    The US "healthcare" system is a corruption system with some healthcare attached. They have many laws literally to prevent competition and efficiencies in the healthcare system.

    Nobody rational compares to them.
    Which is why I don’t understand why some people think the solution to the NHS’s problems is to move closer to a US system.

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,682
    edited July 25
    HYUFD said:

    With Truss having a clear lead in membership polling it does look like Sunak needs a knock out blow in tonight's BBC debate

    There is said to be a second televised debate tomorrow hosted by The Sun on Talk TV although I cannot see it (or much else really) advertised on the latter's website.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/19288104/sun-talktv-rishi-sunak-liz-truss-debate/
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 6,637
    edited July 25

    “China is the biggest long-term threat to Britain, Rishi Sunak will say on Monday as he unveils plans to curb the country’s soft power by closing all of its 30 Confucius Institutes, which promote the teaching of Chinese language and culture, in the UK.”

    https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1551449611839176706

    China really isnt the biggest long term threat and quite a paranoid and insular thing to do
    China is the biggest threat the US faces. Russia is the biggest threat Europe faces. That will become a much, much bigger problem for us if (when?) the Republicans win the presidency in 2024.

    No, China is the biggest threat the entire world faces. The world is interconnected, markets are global, the notion you can worry about your corner of it is naivety in the extreme.

    If China invades Taiwan, which supplies the chips that run the global economy, we would be plunged into a depression that could dwarf COVID and the GFC and Ukraine combined.

    China are without a doubt the 21st centuries greatest threat.

    That is another reason to aid Ukraine to defeat Russia. If China see Russia defeated that may aid deterrence for avoiding them invading Taiwan.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,086

    Foxy said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-62267282

    "The large number of unfilled NHS job vacancies is posing a serious risk to patient safety, a report by MPs says.

    It found England is now short of 12,000 hospital doctors and more than 50,000 nurses and midwives, calling this the worst workforce crisis in NHS history."

    I expect the biggest real terms pay cut in decades will sort that out.



    The problem is that the NHS has to run to stand still, and that challenge gets worse every year - more people live for longer with more chronic conditions all of whom require more people treating them for longer with more new (and expensive) drugs coming on the market all the time that make more things treatable too. And so on.

    Of course, all those staff want real-terms salary increases each year too (who doesn't?) and so the NHS needs to consume an ever greater proportion of national income each and every year - it probably needs a budget increase of 9-10% every year just to stop it getting worse - just to deliver its decidedly average service.

    This isn't sustainable. I don't see any party with answers.
    I don't think the situation is that bad.

    Developments in medical science should also be able to reduce the cost of existing treatments, equipment and medicine.

    Staff wages only have to keep pace with the rest of the economy.

    We're undergoing a demographic transition which is increasing the number of elderly people as a proportion of the population, but that will either reach a new steady state, or we will have bigger problems to worry about.

    We have an existing methodology for rationing care according to the resources available based on NICE.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,697
    James Cleverly last year backing the NI hike: "Labour just voted against extra funding for social care and frontline NHS services. Wow.”

    Cleverly today backing Truss's plan to reverse it: "It's absolutely right that we allow people to keep more of the money they have earned."


    https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1551467929966989312
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 6,637
    edited July 25

    Fishing said:

    Foxy said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-62267282

    "The large number of unfilled NHS job vacancies is posing a serious risk to patient safety, a report by MPs says.

    It found England is now short of 12,000 hospital doctors and more than 50,000 nurses and midwives, calling this the worst workforce crisis in NHS history."

    I expect the biggest real terms pay cut in decades will sort that out.



    The problem is that the NHS has to run to stand still, and that challenge gets worse every year - more people live for longer with more chronic conditions all of whom require more people treating them for longer with more new (and expensive) drugs coming on the market all the time that make more things treatable too. And so on.

    Of course, all those staff want real-terms salary increases each year too (who doesn't?) and so the NHS needs to consume an ever greater proportion of national income each and every year - it probably needs a budget increase of 9-10% every year just to stop it getting worse - just to deliver its decidedly average service.

    This isn't sustainable. I don't see any party with answers.
    There are lots of answers, but they all involve ditching the Bevanite delusion of free health care for all all the time, so we won't implement them until we really have to.

    I just hope we do before the NHS strangles the economy. Already, unkind but accurate foreigners describe us as a health service with a country attached.
    UK healthcare spending as a proportion of GDP is about average in the OECD and very low compared to most of the G7: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthcaresystem/articles/howdoesukhealthcarespendingcomparewithothercountries/2019-08-29 The US spends more than 2.5 times as much per person than we do, yet we have better health outcomes.
    The US "healthcare" system is a corruption system with some healthcare attached. They have many laws literally to prevent competition and efficiencies in the healthcare system.

    Nobody rational compares to them.
    Which is why I don’t understand why some people think the solution to the NHS’s problems is to move closer to a US system.

    I don't think anyone does. I think some critics love to claim that though.

    Who is advising US style anticompetitive laws or prohibitions on bargaining for prices?

    More competition isn't a US system, it's worth looking at systems all over the Continent to see systems more competitive than either the UK or the USA. It's one area they can do well in. 👍
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,902

    What makes Truss potentially so dangerous is that, unlike Johnson, she:
    1. Actually believes what she says
    2. Is not bone idle
    Put those two together and the damage she could do is pretty sizeable.

    You say damage, I say progress.

    Worth a roll of the dice.
    All I know for certain is that if it goes wrong Truss’s supporters will blame everyone but her (and themselves).

    All I know for certain is that regardless of who the Tories pick or why or what they do in office you will blame them for everything any anything (regardless of cause) and say they're the worst PM in your lifetime, a threat to democracy and the country is on its knees.
    Well, they have been in power for 52 of the last 77 years.
    Must be doing something right…..
    Definitely - the Tories have always understood their voter base and what motivates it. In the past, looking after it has delivered wider benefits. Now, though, there is a major disconnect between what appeals to socially conservative, home-owning pensioners and much of the rest of the country. The Tories need a decent spell in opposition to get the time to rework their thinking.

  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 14,728
    Scott_xP said:

    James Cleverly last year backing the NI hike: "Labour just voted against extra funding for social care and frontline NHS services. Wow.”

    Cleverly today backing Truss's plan to reverse it: "It's absolutely right that we allow people to keep more of the money they have earned."


    https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1551467929966989312

    He might be James Cleverly but he is certainly no James Consistently.
  • eekeek Posts: 20,284

    Foxy said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-62267282

    "The large number of unfilled NHS job vacancies is posing a serious risk to patient safety, a report by MPs says.

    It found England is now short of 12,000 hospital doctors and more than 50,000 nurses and midwives, calling this the worst workforce crisis in NHS history."

    I expect the biggest real terms pay cut in decades will sort that out.



    The problem is that the NHS has to run to stand still, and that challenge gets worse every year - more people live for longer with more chronic conditions all of whom require more people treating them for longer with more new (and expensive) drugs coming on the market all the time that make more things treatable too. And so on.

    Of course, all those staff want real-terms salary increases each year too (who doesn't?) and so the NHS needs to consume an ever greater proportion of national income each and every year - it probably needs a budget increase of 9-10% every year just to stop it getting worse - just to deliver its decidedly average service.

    This isn't sustainable. I don't see any party with answers.
    I don't think the situation is that bad.

    Developments in medical science should also be able to reduce the cost of existing treatments, equipment and medicine.

    Staff wages only have to keep pace with the rest of the economy.

    We're undergoing a demographic transition which is increasing the number of elderly people as a proportion of the population, but that will either reach a new steady state, or we will have bigger problems to worry about.

    We have an existing methodology for rationing care according to the resources available based on NICE.
    Two issues with that

    1) We don't have enough people with suitable experience at every stage of their career to replace the people that are living. and that starts with us not recruiting enough people at University which means we start importing people from elsewhere very early on.

    2) As our population gets older diseases and conditions get more complex more time is required to deal with them - and that also requires more people.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,438

    “China is the biggest long-term threat to Britain, Rishi Sunak will say on Monday as he unveils plans to curb the country’s soft power by closing all of its 30 Confucius Institutes, which promote the teaching of Chinese language and culture, in the UK.”

    https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1551449611839176706

    China really isnt the biggest long term threat and quite a paranoid and insular thing to do
    China is the biggest threat the US faces. Russia is the biggest threat Europe faces. That will become a much, much bigger problem for us if (when?) the Republicans win the presidency in 2024.

    No, China is the biggest threat the entire world faces. The world is interconnected, markets are global, the notion you can worry about your corner of it is naivety in the extreme.

    If China invades Taiwan, which supplies the chips that run the global economy, we would be plunged into a depression that could dwarf COVID and the GFC and Ukraine combined.

    China are without a doubt the 21st centuries greatest threat.

    That is another reason to aid Ukraine to defeat Russia. If China see Russia defeated that may aid deterrence for avoiding them invading Taiwan.
    Indeed. It was little understood by most that the intended audience of the sanctions regime and military support in Feb 2022 was sitting as much in Beijing than Moscow.

  • eekeek Posts: 20,284
    ydoethur said:

    What’s important to Nad:

    .⁦@trussliz⁩ will be travelling the country wearing her earrings which cost circa £4.50 from Claire Accessories. Meanwhile…

    Rishi visits Teeside in Prada shoes worth £450 and sported £3,500 bespoke suit as he prepared for crunch leadership vote.


    https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1551459390502440960

    So Truss spent six times the price of a pint of milk on crap jewellery?

    That. Is. A. Disgrace.
    £4.50 is more than a prawn sandwich from Pret...
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,086

    Scott_xP said:

    This NHS staffing disaster is another example of how this government refuses to accept reality. It insists that it is hiring a gazillion new nurses and doctors, and yet numbers continue to drop. Because it isn't just training new ones that is needed, it is staff retention and staff rehire.

    I assume that as the entire cabinet and many in the Tory party all have private medical - who are befitting from the outflux of doctors from the NHS - that they don't know or care.

    Private health insurance, like BUPA, is no help if you have a heart attack
    So maybe A&E and emergency care should always be prioritised in budgetary terms above chronic condition treatment and elective care?
    What then seems to happen is that emergency care becomes a very expensive way to provide inadequate treatment to people with chronic conditions.

    I think that, given the demographic transition, we sort of have to accept that a larger proportion of our national wealth will be required to provide healthcare. Absent large increases in efficiency, or large drops in quality of care, there's no escape from that if the proportion of the country aged above 70 grows massively.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,146

    Foxy said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-62267282

    "The large number of unfilled NHS job vacancies is posing a serious risk to patient safety, a report by MPs says.

    It found England is now short of 12,000 hospital doctors and more than 50,000 nurses and midwives, calling this the worst workforce crisis in NHS history."

    I expect the biggest real terms pay cut in decades will sort that out.



    The problem is that the NHS has to run to stand still, and that challenge gets worse every year - more people live for longer with more chronic conditions all of whom require more people treating them for longer with more new (and expensive) drugs coming on the market all the time that make more things treatable too. And so on.

    Of course, all those staff want real-terms salary increases each year too (who doesn't?) and so the NHS needs to consume an ever greater proportion of national income each and every year - it probably needs a budget increase of 9-10% every year just to stop it getting worse - just to deliver its decidedly average service.

    This isn't sustainable. I don't see any party with answers.
    I don't think the situation is that bad.

    Developments in medical science should also be able to reduce the cost of existing treatments, equipment and medicine.

    Staff wages only have to keep pace with the rest of the economy.

    We're undergoing a demographic transition which is increasing the number of elderly people as a proportion of the population, but that will either reach a new steady state, or we will have bigger problems to worry about.

    We have an existing methodology for rationing care according to the resources available based on NICE.
    I'm afraid it is that bad.

    The NHS took barely a quarter of government spending a decade ago. It now takes well over a third.

    That isn't sustainable.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,401
    .

    What makes Truss potentially so dangerous is that, unlike Johnson, she:
    1. Actually believes what she says
    2. Is not bone idle
    Put those two together and the damage she could do is pretty sizeable.

    You say damage, I say progress.

    Worth a roll of the dice.
    That says it all.

    The best that her most ardent (possibly only) admirer on PB has to say about her is that she's worth 'a roll of the dice'.

    A nation reduced to the status of a roulette chip.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,279
    Age limit on NHS care ? 90 ?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,795
    ydoethur said:

    Mr. Away, Germany tried being co-operative and friendly with Russia. Didn't work out so well.

    Russia is a country that has literally gone insane.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62287502

    Even if their claims were true, which - to put it mildly - seems unlikely given their record, this would be a matter for the Ukrainian government not them.

    I do hope that Putin, Bortnikov, Lavrov, Medvedev Shoigu and Mishustin all shortly suffer the fate they richly deserve - that of Muamar Gaddafi.
    It is a war, and war crimes will almost certainly be being committed by both sides. That is what happens when you have a large-scale war with poorly-trained young men chucked into it.

    E.g.: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allied_war_crimes_during_World_War_II

    What differs are scale and organisation.
    *) How much of this is going on? Is it the odd solider or unit, or something more widespread?
    *) Do the crimes go against the rules of engagement by their side, are the crimes investigated by their side, and are they actively encouraged or condoned?

    We cannot know what is going on on the ground; but as the Russians are in Ukrainian territory, their capability and opportunity to commit war crimes are far greater. And I doubt the Russian military or government care much.

    To be clear: IMV the Ukrainians are on the side of god and godliness in this conflict. But they will not all be angels - and not all Russians will be devils.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 1,749

    Fishing said:

    Foxy said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-62267282

    "The large number of unfilled NHS job vacancies is posing a serious risk to patient safety, a report by MPs says.

    It found England is now short of 12,000 hospital doctors and more than 50,000 nurses and midwives, calling this the worst workforce crisis in NHS history."

    I expect the biggest real terms pay cut in decades will sort that out.



    The problem is that the NHS has to run to stand still, and that challenge gets worse every year - more people live for longer with more chronic conditions all of whom require more people treating them for longer with more new (and expensive) drugs coming on the market all the time that make more things treatable too. And so on.

    Of course, all those staff want real-terms salary increases each year too (who doesn't?) and so the NHS needs to consume an ever greater proportion of national income each and every year - it probably needs a budget increase of 9-10% every year just to stop it getting worse - just to deliver its decidedly average service.

    This isn't sustainable. I don't see any party with answers.
    There are lots of answers, but they all involve ditching the Bevanite delusion of free health care for all all the time, so we won't implement them until we really have to.

    I just hope we do before the NHS strangles the economy. Already, unkind but accurate foreigners describe us as a health service with a country attached.
    UK healthcare spending as a proportion of GDP is about average in the OECD and very low compared to most of the G7: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthcaresystem/articles/howdoesukhealthcarespendingcomparewithothercountries/2019-08-29 The US spends more than 2.5 times as much per person than we do, yet we have better health outcomes.
    The US "healthcare" system is a corruption system with some healthcare attached. They have many laws literally to prevent competition and efficiencies in the healthcare system.

    Nobody rational compares to them.
    Which is why I don’t understand why some people think the solution to the NHS’s problems is to move closer to a US system.

    I don't think anyone does. I think some critics love to claim that though.

    More competition isn't a US system, it's worth looking at systems all over the Continent to see systems more competitive than either the UK or the USA. It's one area they can do well in. 👍
    Fishing was suggesting that the NHS is strangling the economy. How would a French or German system where a higher proportion of GDP is spent on healthcare be any less of a stranglehold on the economy? CR notes they have (somewhat) lower state spending, with more private money, but that money still ultimately comes from the same economy… indeed, ultimately, people are still paying, just through mandated private insurance rather than through tax.

    We do spend a lot on healthcare, but isn’t being hale and hearty a central part of enjoying living? The NHS is very efficient by international comparisons. Most of the G7 manage to spend more on healthcare than us and still have thriving economies. Why don’t we spend a little more? It’s not going to destroy the economy. It is going to deliver better outcomes.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 52,691
    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    What’s important to Nad:

    .⁦@trussliz⁩ will be travelling the country wearing her earrings which cost circa £4.50 from Claire Accessories. Meanwhile…

    Rishi visits Teeside in Prada shoes worth £450 and sported £3,500 bespoke suit as he prepared for crunch leadership vote.


    https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1551459390502440960

    So Truss spent six times the price of a pint of milk on crap jewellery?

    That. Is. A. Disgrace.
    £4.50 is more than a prawn sandwich from Pret...
    So, members of the conservative party are slagging off other members because they are wealthy? Have I got this right? This is the Conservative party right?

    We are no longer in Kansas, Toto.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,432

    ydoethur said:

    Mr. Away, Germany tried being co-operative and friendly with Russia. Didn't work out so well.

    Russia is a country that has literally gone insane.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62287502

    Even if their claims were true, which - to put it mildly - seems unlikely given their record, this would be a matter for the Ukrainian government not them.

    I do hope that Putin, Bortnikov, Lavrov, Medvedev Shoigu and Mishustin all shortly suffer the fate they richly deserve - that of Muamar Gaddafi.
    It is a war, and war crimes will almost certainly be being committed by both sides. That is what happens when you have a large-scale war with poorly-trained young men chucked into it.

    E.g.: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allied_war_crimes_during_World_War_II

    What differs are scale and organisation.
    *) How much of this is going on? Is it the odd solider or unit, or something more widespread?
    *) Do the crimes go against the rules of engagement by their side, are the crimes investigated by their side, and are they actively encouraged or condoned?

    We cannot know what is going on on the ground; but as the Russians are in Ukrainian territory, their capability and opportunity to commit war crimes are far greater. And I doubt the Russian military or government care much.

    To be clear: IMV the Ukrainians are on the side of god and godliness in this conflict. But they will not all be angels - and not all Russians will be devils.
    I agree but -

    As I said, the investigation of war crimes in Ukrainian territory is nothing to do with Russia. It is the province of first the Ukrainian government and second, the UN.

    And since they would not be being committed at all if Russia wasn't there, even that isn't a good enough answer for Russia to dodge responsibility.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,086

    Fishing said:

    Foxy said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-62267282

    "The large number of unfilled NHS job vacancies is posing a serious risk to patient safety, a report by MPs says.

    It found England is now short of 12,000 hospital doctors and more than 50,000 nurses and midwives, calling this the worst workforce crisis in NHS history."

    I expect the biggest real terms pay cut in decades will sort that out.



    The problem is that the NHS has to run to stand still, and that challenge gets worse every year - more people live for longer with more chronic conditions all of whom require more people treating them for longer with more new (and expensive) drugs coming on the market all the time that make more things treatable too. And so on.

    Of course, all those staff want real-terms salary increases each year too (who doesn't?) and so the NHS needs to consume an ever greater proportion of national income each and every year - it probably needs a budget increase of 9-10% every year just to stop it getting worse - just to deliver its decidedly average service.

    This isn't sustainable. I don't see any party with answers.
    There are lots of answers, but they all involve ditching the Bevanite delusion of free health care for all all the time, so we won't implement them until we really have to.

    I just hope we do before the NHS strangles the economy. Already, unkind but accurate foreigners describe us as a health service with a country attached.
    UK healthcare spending as a proportion of GDP is about average in the OECD and very low compared to most of the G7: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthcaresystem/articles/howdoesukhealthcarespendingcomparewithothercountries/2019-08-29 The US spends more than 2.5 times as much per person than we do, yet we have better health outcomes.
    Yes, but the difference there (e.g. in France, Germany, Switzerland and Australia) is that they inject much more through the private and third sector.

    Constant comparisons of the NHS to the US is a tired age-old tactic, and the sign of a limited mind.

    There are dozens of far better models out there.
    It sounds to me that your objection is not to paying more for healthcare, but to paying for other people's healthcare. There are always going to be a minority who lose out from an NHS funded by general taxation and free at the point of use, who are overrepresented on pb.com. Most of the country is pretty happy with that risk-sharing approach.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,432
    edited July 25

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    What’s important to Nad:

    .⁦@trussliz⁩ will be travelling the country wearing her earrings which cost circa £4.50 from Claire Accessories. Meanwhile…

    Rishi visits Teeside in Prada shoes worth £450 and sported £3,500 bespoke suit as he prepared for crunch leadership vote.


    https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1551459390502440960

    So Truss spent six times the price of a pint of milk on crap jewellery?

    That. Is. A. Disgrace.
    £4.50 is more than a prawn sandwich from Pret...
    So, members of the conservative party are slagging off other members because they are wealthy? Have I got this right? This is the Conservative party right?

    We are no longer in Kansas, Toto.

    Nadine Dorries isn't a Conservative. She's a Johnson lover (although hopefully not in *that* way as it's a mental image I could do without).

    Perhaps we should borrow from Pratchett and Gaiman's Good Omens and start referring to her and Mogg as 'the Greasy Johnsonites.'
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,414
    What a pointless and depressing thread.

    It would be better if Tories took some ownership of their poor record, rather than blaming others. The unedifying leadership contest is not pointing he way forward for them. We’re staring down the barrel of two years of chaos just when we need some leadership.

    Meanwhile the NHS is in trouble, which impact peoples lives. It’s not a religion, it’s more important than that. The NHS represents life and death (or a pain free existence) for many thousands of people. A serious conversation about short and long term remedies is required. We need to get operations done now.
This discussion has been closed.