YouGov CON members poll has Truss 24% ahead – politicalbetting.com
YouGov CON members poll has Truss 24% ahead – politicalbetting.com
If other pollsters have CON member polling with similar figures then it is very hard to see Truss being defeated.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Johnson 66.4%
Hubt 33.6%
2005 Tory Leadership Contest
Cameron 67.6%
Davis 32.4%
2001 Tory Leadership Contest
Duncan Smith 60.7%
Clarke 39.3%
Tory Members don't like it to be close, it seems.
"I do support the idea of promoting our trade around the world. What I would be seeking is to get investment into a yacht, looking to the private sector to assist with that to make it financially viable”
Victory for @christopherhope
1.55 Liz Truss 65%
2.84 Rishi Sunak 35%
Next Conservative leader
1.53 Liz Truss 65%
2.88 Rishi Sunak 35%
I can't stand her, but the polling is starting to suggest the public, or rather the Tory public, might not be as negative. Perceived wisdom warnings apply as much as they did to the Bozmatron
I think an early 2023 GE is possible if we see a bounce.
Her Redfield score versus Starmer is on a very steep incline.......
Would seem a bit rough to blame the members for electing Truss then.
If you mean 44 hours without eg coffee or soft drinks but having water, that's a different matter. Unpleasant but not dangerous.
I don't really buy some of all the hippy dippy stuff about such a regime, but I find it does a very simple thing, it restricts your calorie intake as you basically eat twice a day and you don't really snack.
The most important thing is it gives you a very simple consistent routine and your body soon adjusts such that 16hrs without food really isn't an issue.
The actual YouGov poll result is:
Truss 49
Sunak 31
Will not vote 6
Don't Know 15
So if Sunak got all Don't Knows it's on a knife-edge.
Even allocating DKs which gives 62-38, the point is it's not like a 24 point lead in a normal VI poll because in a head to head, one point off one candidate automatically means one point onto the other.
It's obvious from all polls that nobody's support is deep - only 13% of members go for Truss (and 11% for Sunak) given the choice of all the original eight candidates.
So things could change quickly - and the BBC head to head debate next Monday is before ballot papers go out. If Sunak won that convincingly he absolutely could turn it around - but the question is can he actually do that?
Despite one poll, which one of our number seems convinced is evidence most people in the country love Liz Truss and are looking forward to the forthcoming economic illiteracy, I imagine the opposition parties are quite content with events.
Truss will be desperate to get some form of "bounce" and we'll all end up paying for it with her absurd unfunded tax cuts. Clearly, there are those who think cutting taxes is all that matters - it isn't. June's borrowing figures were awful and not helped by rising inflation and interest rates - after all, inflation is too much money chasing too few goods so giving people more money to spend is a sure fire way of reducing inflation?
The Lafferites and their fellow travellers are obviously hoping the populism will be enough - maybe but I prefer to wonder about increased defence spending, money for education, the NHS, pensions, local Government services and all those small adjuncts to a civilised life beyond simply paying less in tax.
The Sunak approach is boring but sensible - the Truss approach is championed by those for whom the only nightmare paying more tax is a non-Conservative Government. The perpetuation of the Conservative Party in Government justifies anything and everything including the evisceration of the public finances.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nI-v4o2HKkQ
One would assume a series of strong performances would not go without some reward, but that's not even guaranteed - he's up against someone who's simultaneously the change candidate and continuity candidate, which is hard to combat!
Truss is going to PM. Short of a scandal, Sunak cannot beat her.
📈13pt Labour lead
🌳Con 30 (+2)
🌹Lab 43 (=)
🔶LD 11 (-1)
🎗️SNP 4 (=)
🌍Gre 4 (=)
⬜️Other 8 (=)
1,980 UK adults, 15-17 Jul
(chg from 8-10 Jul)
BJO please explain
The thing is that we just don't know what Truss will actually do - except it almost certainly won't just be what we are expecting.
I want Sunak to win but have to concede Truss may grow into the role and come across better than we think. And she may get lucky with events.
Covid enquiry opens, to little fanfare.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-lessons-learned-to-date-report-government-response/the-governments-response-to-the-health-and-social-care-committee-and-science-and-technology-committee-joint-report-coronavirus-lessons-learned-to-d
> private funding included ALL costs including running & staff costs.
> management was in hands of independent agency NOT under PM or other govt ministers
> staffing was accomplished as as to NOT be burden or worse on Royal Navy & other military; instead, make it an asset for training & testing, for example by using naval cadets & sea scouts as well as retired & similar naval, merchant marine & other experienced veterans & similar.
> scheduling designed to maximize UK foreign & economic interests (traditional role) PLUS environmental & educational goals, while allowing some scope for the IMMEDIATE royals to have a bit of fun while boating for Britain.
If taxes were at a 74 year low and a candidate was suggesting cutting them even lower then that might be objectionable, but when they're at a record high maybe continuing with ever higher taxes is not a smart idea?
"Once one pops, one just can't stop."
And could the contest for the hearts, minds and votes of Tory Party members do the same yet again?
Personally think answers are, 1) yes and 2) maybe . . . but leaning yes.
In which case, how does she propose to scrap it without opening up the whole funding of Social care issue again?
I notice for all of her talk about big tax cuts driving growth and paying for themselves, she is still under the surface talking about looking for “efficiencies” in Govt spending… At a time of 9% inflation, rising pay demands and vacancies all over the place and everything already creaking and on the verge of collapse?
Pull the other one!
There again, what will happen to all the confiscated oligarchs' yachts?
Cutting taxes without cutting spending will increase the deficit. Spending on things other than the elderly is already at low levels, unsustainably so in many cases. And spending on the elderly won't be cut because the Tories are the pensioner party. So Truss's voodoo economics just means higher debt and, most likely, even shittier public services than we have already.
This is stage two of the Brexit sucker punch that I predicted on here some time ago. Stage one: Brexit, followed by economic stagnation. Stage two: the economy is stagnating, so we must slash the state and tear up regulation. No doubt there will be other stages of even more poverty and anger, even more populism, even more slash and burn. Repeat until we look like Alabama.
Folk aren't daft. They know it isn't.
I sense we will settle somewhere near an 8 point lead and the next movement will be September after new PM installed
I'd hope I'd be to the right on economic issues of such a nutter. Its on social and racial issues I take the liberal rather than authoritarian view and differ from him and his racist ilk.
Better sense in keeping swanky embassies as you have a good property investment and don’t have the problem when the engines give out on the way to sign a trade deal with some conveniently placed sunny spots with beautiful shoreline when the ministers fancy going all Prince Andrew.
Except I must have known that because I can remember Charles' investiture as Prince of Wales. One too many bangs on the old noggin, I fear.
Personally I've said we need to tax the Grey vote more, and give fewer sweeties to the Grey voters which would cut the bills.
While a side-effect and not the motivation, I'm also quite OK with letting Covid rip even if that means more Covid fatalities which would mean fewer Grey voters at the next election, fewer Grey pension liabilities and fewer Grey healthcare appointments in the future (the dead don't appear on waiting lists).
But almost every left-wing voter here seems to want to not just moan about the Tories being the 'pensioner party' but want to object any time a Tory threatens the Triple Lock, and any time less than perfect protection against Covid is suggested.
Bringing it back next, yes.
I don't think you would know what the middle road position was if you were standing on a white line.
We have to acknowledge that events intervene and just because we think Lizzie is crap doesn’t mean she actually is doomed to defeat at the next GE.
.. what I would say is that becoming PM at mid-term is difficult. I compare Truss to May and to Brown. Both were considered more “serious” politicians with less charisma than those that went before them. Both tried to trade off on that in the early days - May with her strong and stable and Brown with his response to a number of crises in his first few weeks. Neither was able to make this veneer of change and a return to ‘serious’ politics last beyond a few months, because both were flawed individuals who didn’t possess the necessary political skills to be strong leaders and Prime Ministers.
Maybe Truss is different and she does have what it takes where those two didn’t. I have strong doubts though, given what I’ve seen of her. In fact I think she’s even worse presentationally than both of them.
I'm going to give it a go, probably, just out of curiosity. Try everything twice has always been my motto, and it has served me well. You have to do *anything* twice in case you hate it the first time, but something was just awry, eg I hated heroin the first time and vommed everywhere, but the second time I loved it, and that cued me up for a twelve year smack addiction, so Yay
Reckon I'm going to do a 5 day water fast. 7 days does sound insanely tough
Also thanks to @foxy for that "800 calorie" link. A lot of sense in that article, especially this:
"He also argues that a rapid weight loss programme, like the one they used in this trial, can be a more successful strategy than trying to lose it gradually. “Doing it slowly is torture. Contrary to the belief of many dieticians, people who lose weight more quickly, more emphatically, are more likely to keep it off long term”."
This is totally true. And this is why fasting is a really good diet strategy (even if my fasts to date have just been 2-3 day jobs). When you fast the weight falls away quickly, which is encouraging, so you stick to the diet because you are getting immediate results, and you want more
Slow calorie counting when you lose half a pound a week is a recipe for failure
https://www.royalnavy.mod.uk/news-and-latest-activity/news/2022/february/17/20220217-last-push-made-to-save-veteran-minesweeper-hms-bronington-prince-charles-warship
I suppose his youngest brother can also be said to have been in the Navy, albeit not for very long, as he was in the Royal Marines for a while, though he failed to complete training.
I will cut the current Government quite a bit of slack - the response to the pandemic required financial largesse as the economy basically stopped in the spring of 2020. It's no surprise the deficit and the debt increased sharply but the response was required at the time.
The response traditionally to public spending problems from the Conservative side has been to cut - as Osborne had it in 2010, for every £1 raised through higher taxes, £5 came from spending cuts. The problem is the room for spending cuts just isn't there - defence, welfare, NHS, education are sacrosanct and while I suppose we could cut capital and infrastructure spending that's as short sighted as it gets for future growth.
Local Government has to keep the care of vulnerable adults and children going so the scope for "cutting the fat" is restricted.
The other side has been to cut taxes - this of course usually favours the very wealthy and as Sri Lanka has shown, if you cut too much too far for too many you're storing up trouble.
No one likes putting up taxes (yes, even the Left) but at least Sunak raises the first problem is inflation and getting that back under control. As for budget surpluses, Ken Clarke ran a budget surplus in the mid 90s - he was under huge pressure from a floundering Tory Party to cut taxes in the run up to 1997 as a way to improve the Party's electoral prospects. He refused.
Sometimes what's best for the country isn't what's best for the Conservative Party.
His wishy washy “I don’t believe in absolute budget targets” makes him look a wet blanket that doesn’t care about national security. Whoever is advising him on that needs to be fired.
He can’t beat Truss on the issue, because Truss clearly f*kin hates Putin and Lavrov and the feeling is mutual. But he can try harder to nullify her advantage.
That he still hasn’t realised this goes to show he is not a very clever politician, much like when he thought it ok for the wife of the chancellor to be a non-dom while increasing taxes to their highest level in a human lifetime.
I don’t have a vote but if I did right now I’d vote for the cyborg ahead of him on this issue alone.
You really do come across as a greedy, self-interested, weirdo with your 'let Covid rip even if that means more Covid fatalities which would mean fewer Grey voters at the next election' rubbish. Do you never stop to think that you are talking about real people and about people's friends, partners, parents and grandparents etc.?
He's a very clever free thinker who sometimes gets things completely bang on out of nowhere - incredible insights - yet at the same time can entertain utterly mad ideas, at least for a while
I hope this is one of his madder moments
Are they hostile but polite, and would like to give humanity time to be properly briefed of its imminent demise?
Out of interest how do you know he’s been weak on Ukraine?
Was it from an unattributed comment to a journo saying he thought Russia would win so what’s the point?
Maybe Wallace will let us know but unless I heard otherwise that comment could come from the Boris camp to undermine him.
Secondly if he did say something like that then before the invasion and in the early days I think most people were sadly thinking Russia would inevitably win so he’s not out of the ordinary there.
Third, he’s the Chancellor of the Exchequer so his job in cabinet is to manage the country’s finances first and foremost - it’s for other relevant ministers in cabinet to put forward counter arguments based on their ministry’s research and evaluation. Then I assume it’s up to the PM to take all views into consideration and then follow a line based on their advice.
If it’s not that then what’s the point in having cabinet?
Anyway, again and I’m totally accepting I might have missed something evidential that he has been weak on Ukraine, why is he seen as weak on Ukraine?
If they want to thwack the shit out of us what has been stopping them?
And these people are being entrusted to give us the next PM .
If officials at the top of the USG or HMG or the CCP got the idea we were being visited by aliens of supernormal technical prowess, with hostile intentions to mankind, what the hell would they do? How would you inform the people? Quickly, slowly, in code? Would you even try? Would they themselves be able to comprehend something so outlandish AND awful?
They do when its on groups they don't like.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/politics-betting-2378961
Sunak like Ken Clarke won most MPs but IDS won the membership vote 61% to 39%, similar to Truss' lead over Sunak with members with Yougov
I note he was out campaigning again, so never say never again.
The Truss prospectus is bonkers: effectively, she wishes to cut taxes very considerably without having to make difficult and unpopular cuts to services like healthcare and payouts like pensions, by the simple expedient of borrowing to fund the gap (and keeping her fingers crossed that Laffer will kick in quickly and the proceeds of growth will plug said gap in a year or two.)
Problems:
1. She's inviting another substantial ramping up of inflation, firstly through releasing all that extra cash into what is (relative to most of Europe) already a comparatively low tax economy; and secondly through a crackpot borrow-to-spend policy which poses a serious risk of triggering a run on the pound.
2. She's also burning the Tories' USP as the party of fiscal responsibility. If we can lower taxes, borrow as much as we like to directly fund public spending, and get away with it (spoiler: we can't) then what happens when Labour decides to enter a bidding war and says that it will borrow to give nurses a 15% pay hike? The Conservatives cannot win against Labour on such territory. Or, for that matter, what if Labour decides to say that Tory policy is unsustainable and reckless, and it would behave more responsibly - what is Truss's response to that? Or, for that matter, that of the substantial fraction of the Parliamentary party that will find itself in complete agreement with the Opposition over this?
Most economists, and almost anyone out in the country at large who can be bothered to take long enough to think about this, can see that Truss is indulging in magical thinking, because daft elderly Tories want to hear that they can have spending on all the things and massive tax cuts at the same time.
I suppose the best that can be said of this is that at least Truss has gone straight for more borrowing, rather than the alternative fantasy that we could find all the money if only we stamped on benefit scroungers hard enough. Which, given how many poor people are really struggling, how miserly social security is, and how high a proportion of claimants are in work, would really take the biscuit.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1550154165967589378?s=20&t=f37hitfRgvk8yj8YRPXQPg
BUT, it is most definitely not the same as a five day fast which is just bonkers in my book.
I have no idea why you want to stop drinking water as well if you want to shift the "podge"?