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YouGov CON members poll has Truss 24% ahead – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    We have one poll. One.
    There’s not enough to go on, really.

    Which is annoying for PBers because we have been treated to a veritable feast of political news for months.

    Personally I am eating humble pie, as I long thought the “anti-Truss” vote was big enough to exclude her. Steve Baker was right and I was wrong.

    Yes, but it matches the televised voxpops and Conhome surveys.

    LICIPM.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    Leon said:

    This is an excellent graphic on the UAP conundrum: helps to visualise what might and might not be happening


    Do you have a link? The posted image is too small to read.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    dixiedean said:

    alex_ said:

    dixiedean said:

    This site hates Truss and is losing its shit.

    It's going to drive people away who have something different to say about her, affect the betting and lose people a lot of money.

    Get a grip. Be objective.

    @Gardenwalker one of the few making good observations here tonight. @rcs1000 too.

    I don't hate her. She's saying the economic system isn't working for folk.
    She's not wrong either.
    Saying the system isn’t working doesn’t mean her “solutions” will make things better.
    Not it doesn't at all.
    But it is at least a start of a conversation that hasn't been had. Except by Corbyn.
    Perhaps she is true to her left wing childhood. By bringing on the crisis of capitalism she is creating the conditions for revolution.

    "The worse, the better" as Lenin once said.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,706
    alex_ said:

    Cicero said:

    IDS in drag is not going to cut the mustard. The difference of course is that IDS was never Prime Minister.

    The more you deconstruct Liz Truss the worse it gets. Confidence is just going to collapse and the freedom of action for a chaotic government will be very limited. In the end who are her allies in the Parliamentary party and the Cabinet? Is JRM pitching for Chancellor? Does she leave Patel or Dorries in place? This could be an even worse cabinet than Johnson´s last gasp. In short, WTF?

    No need to WTF a cabinet that hasn't been named yet.

    Once she's won she'll be riding high and there isn't going to be another leadership election for a while, I think she can reasonably do a Party Unity thing with people from all the factions in appropriate jobs. For instance leave JRM and Dorries where they are, they're ridiculous but they're not doing any serious damage. Then put Sunak or Javid back in as chancellor, get rid of Patel since she's quite incident-prone and doesn't seem to have endorsed, bring Hunt back in if he's up for it, that sort of thing.
    Dorries - depends what your views are on channel4. The idea that she could make Sunak Chancellor is quite amusing though!

    “Your policies are economic lunacy”. “ How do you fancy implementing them?
    Everybody knows the leadership arguments are all for show.

    I know it's a different country but look at Obama and Hillary. Obama defeated Hillary on her foreign policy hawkishness and the health insurance mandate. Then he won and put her in charge of foreign policy where she fucked up Libya with her foreign policy hawkishness. And enacted ObamaCare, with the health insurance mandate.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    Andy_JS said:
    Doesn't really say that - more that he's seemingly thinking in terms of London + HCs vs The Rest. Odd though.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,257
    Carnyx said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Doesn't really say that - more that he's seemingly thinking in terms of London + HCs vs The Rest. Odd though.
    I clicked on that link and was “treated” to a clip of Dan Wootton.

    Where do they find these people?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    Andy_JS said:

    When does this farce of an election finally come to an end?

    5th September. Winner goes to the Palace the next day.
    If her Maj can hold on until then then at least the fat clown wont be leading the nation in mourning which would mainly involve him telling us how she could not reign without his constant help and she had told him no premier was greater etc etc.

    Indeed, the Queen doesn't deserve a Peppa Pig style eulogy, and BigDog doesn't deserve to be in a position to give one. Whatever my views on Ms. Truss she will perform such a dour task with less alacrity than the Clown.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,166
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    alex_ said:

    Truss is surely going to have a problem appointing a Chancellor who isn’t completely bonkers, given that they will have no reputation left. The markets are hardly going to happy with huge tax cuts that don’t even claim to be funded.

    Would Rishi accept if offered the job?
    Rishi is more likely to be offered Ambassador to Moscow by Truss or Ambassador to Pakistan than to be her Chancellor, most likely it will be Kwarteng or Clarke
    It'll be disappointing if he moves to Silicon Valley if he doesn't win the contest.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,871

    Sunak is so polished and Truss so clearly struggling with her thoughts, why are almost all the vox pop talking Conservative heads on every news channel batting for Truss?

    It's not about how she says it, it's what they think she has to offer, and whether they think the members want that.

    They probably do.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    alex_ said:

    Truss is surely going to have a problem appointing a Chancellor who isn’t completely bonkers, given that they will have no reputation left. The markets are hardly going to happy with huge tax cuts that don’t even claim to be funded.

    Would Rishi accept if offered the job?
    Rishi is more likely to be offered Ambassador to Moscow by Truss or Ambassador to Pakistan than to be her Chancellor, most likely it will be Kwarteng or Clarke
    It'll be disappointing if he moves to Silicon Valley if he doesn't win the contest.
    Why?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677
    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Popular Mechanics suggests (alongside British astronaut Tim Peake) that the UFOs might be terrestrial time travellers

    https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/a40665405/are-ufos-time-traveling-humans/

    If they are aliens travelling from outside the solar system how have they not been spotted given the amount of star gazing that goes on. It is not feasible.

    As for time travellers I just don’t believe that either.
    When radar was in its infancy there were many unexplained things picked up, often known as angels. Better tech and better understanding meant we don’t see them anymore. I would not be surprised if the latest nonsense is similar - glitches in new shiny kit, seemingly showing solid objects performing gravity and physics defying acts.
    And from there people leap to either aliens, or advanced earth kit that we know nothing about.
    I miss Occam.
    "the latest nonsense"

    You aren't really following this story, are you?
    More than you might think, but i am very skpetical. Fortean Times had an article this month. There is nothing that’s been shown that has convinced me of anything that might be inexplicable.
    Sadly too many people WANT it to be aliens and thus drives their logic.
    It might just as likely be Angels.
    I keep hearing that the good stuff doesn’t get released. I call bollocks, it doesn’t exist. I’ve been following Fortean stuff since I was 10.
    And again - big sigh - if this is your position you have to explain the antics of the entire American Establishment from President Obama to Senator Rubio to the new head of NASA to the ex heads of the CIA, the US Navy, MI, journalists at the NYT, WashPo, Newsweek, the Hill, CNN, and so on


    Do you REALLY think that this entire UAP story can be explained by "glitches in new shiny kit", and no one has worked this out in the USA?

    Occam's razor, which you profess to wield, suggests your explanation is twaddle
    Anyone talking about mere glitches in kit has not paid attention to the totality of evidence and testimony, it’s as simple as that. There IS something highly puzzling going on. None of us can know what it is but we can certainly apply ourselves in speculating.

    This is also bang on mission for this website, since this has become a major political story in the US (and elsewhere in fact), with ongoing rounds of fresh legislation, quangos and congressional oversight sessions and hearings.

    What’s disappointed me in the last 18months since I first raised the topic here, is that no one more expert than I in the machinations of US congressional politics has been able to better explain what’s going on from a political perspective, or even really attempt to.
    You need a lot of intellectual courage and self confidence to approach a story (let alone a thesis about the story) what has been viciously stigmatised for decades. Everyone is scared of being laughed at, or looking a fool


    See the mocking laughter on this vid

    https://twitter.com/RedPandaKoala/status/1548798696375980032?s=20&t=VB90Nomp4d7CCoX_kHexzQ
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,687
    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    alex_ said:

    dixiedean said:

    This site hates Truss and is losing its shit.

    It's going to drive people away who have something different to say about her, affect the betting and lose people a lot of money.

    Get a grip. Be objective.

    @Gardenwalker one of the few making good observations here tonight. @rcs1000 too.

    I don't hate her. She's saying the economic system isn't working for folk.
    She's not wrong either.
    Saying the system isn’t working doesn’t mean her “solutions” will make things better.
    Not it doesn't at all.
    But it is at least a start of a conversation that hasn't been had. Except by Corbyn.
    Perhaps she is true to her left wing childhood. By bringing on the crisis of capitalism she is creating the conditions for revolution.

    "The worse, the better" as Lenin once said.
    Our highly unequal and increasingly divided society is the direct consequence of Thatcherism 1.0, and she is promising Thatcherism 2.0 as the solution. Only this time without the oil revenues or the Single Market. It's not going to be pretty.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,270
    edited July 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    alex_ said:

    Truss is surely going to have a problem appointing a Chancellor who isn’t completely bonkers, given that they will have no reputation left. The markets are hardly going to happy with huge tax cuts that don’t even claim to be funded.

    Would Rishi accept if offered the job?
    Rishi is more likely to be offered Ambassador to Moscow by Truss or Ambassador to Pakistan than to be her Chancellor, most likely it will be Kwarteng or Clarke
    It'll be disappointing if he moves to Silicon Valley if he doesn't win the contest.
    I wouldn't be surprised. David Miliband moved to a $1 million a year job heading a charity in Manhattan after losing to Ed in 2010, Clegg moved to a multi million dollar a year job with Facebook in Silicon Valley after defeat in 2015, Sunak would likely move to the West or East coast of the US too if he lost
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    dixiedean said:

    This site hates Truss and is losing its shit.

    It's going to drive people away who have something different to say about her, affect the betting and lose people a lot of money.

    Get a grip. Be objective.

    @Gardenwalker one of the few making good observations here tonight. @rcs1000 too.

    I don't hate her. She's saying the economic system isn't working for folk.
    She's not wrong either.
    I'm so old that I thought that Brexit had fixed that because it was all the neo-liberal european technocrats fault.
    No, Brexit fixed it because we could untether ourselves from Euro-sclerosis.
    Just as well that Brexit fixed everything. Imagine the shit we would be in if it hadn't.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677

    Leon said:

    This is an excellent graphic on the UAP conundrum: helps to visualise what might and might not be happening


    Do you have a link? The posted image is too small to read.
    Sure. Try this


    https://twitter.com/Ginsburg/status/1550195411960430594?s=20&t=2TqIeHlP-7THrAi1wKDSiw
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    dixiedean said:

    This site hates Truss and is losing its shit.

    It's going to drive people away who have something different to say about her, affect the betting and lose people a lot of money.

    Get a grip. Be objective.

    @Gardenwalker one of the few making good observations here tonight. @rcs1000 too.

    I don't hate her. She's saying the economic system isn't working for folk.
    She's not wrong either.
    She's been in the government for the best part of what, a decade, telling us that this economic system was wonderful and we should all vote for the Tories.

    And now we're supposed to believe that .... well, what ..... exactly?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    edited July 2022

    @BartholomewRoberts do you agree or disagree that voting Labour in 2019 was endorsing anti-Semitism

    It wasn't in the manifesto, so no.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    Agreement reached to export Ukrainian grain via the Black Sea.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    alex_ said:

    dixiedean said:

    This site hates Truss and is losing its shit.

    It's going to drive people away who have something different to say about her, affect the betting and lose people a lot of money.

    Get a grip. Be objective.

    @Gardenwalker one of the few making good observations here tonight. @rcs1000 too.

    I don't hate her. She's saying the economic system isn't working for folk.
    She's not wrong either.
    Saying the system isn’t working doesn’t mean her “solutions” will make things better.
    Not it doesn't at all.
    But it is at least a start of a conversation that hasn't been had. Except by Corbyn.
    Perhaps she is true to her left wing childhood. By bringing on the crisis of capitalism she is creating the conditions for revolution.

    "The worse, the better" as Lenin once said.
    "She's saying the economic system isn't working for folk.
    She's not wrong either."

    iirc May said exactly the same thing with Nick Timothy writing reams of back up analysis to support the view.

    Plus ca change.

    Nothing will be achieved.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,270
    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Popular Mechanics suggests (alongside British astronaut Tim Peake) that the UFOs might be terrestrial time travellers

    https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/a40665405/are-ufos-time-traveling-humans/

    If they are aliens travelling from outside the solar system how have they not been spotted given the amount of star gazing that goes on. It is not feasible.

    As for time travellers I just don’t believe that either.
    When radar was in its infancy there were many unexplained things picked up, often known as angels. Better tech and better understanding meant we don’t see them anymore. I would not be surprised if the latest nonsense is similar - glitches in new shiny kit, seemingly showing solid objects performing gravity and physics defying acts.
    And from there people leap to either aliens, or advanced earth kit that we know nothing about.
    I miss Occam.
    "the latest nonsense"

    You aren't really following this story, are you?
    More than you might think, but i am very skpetical. Fortean Times had an article this month. There is nothing that’s been shown that has convinced me of anything that might be inexplicable.
    Sadly too many people WANT it to be aliens and thus drives their logic.
    It might just as likely be Angels.
    I keep hearing that the good stuff doesn’t get released. I call bollocks, it doesn’t exist. I’ve been following Fortean stuff since I was 10.
    And again - big sigh - if this is your position you have to explain the antics of the entire American Establishment from President Obama to Senator Rubio to the new head of NASA to the ex heads of the CIA, the US Navy, MI, journalists at the NYT, WashPo, Newsweek, the Hill, CNN, and so on


    Do you REALLY think that this entire UAP story can be explained by "glitches in new shiny kit", and no one has worked this out in the USA?

    Occam's razor, which you profess to wield, suggests your explanation is twaddle
    Anyone talking about mere glitches in kit has not paid attention to the totality of evidence and testimony, it’s as simple as that. There IS something highly puzzling going on. None of us can know what it is but we can certainly apply ourselves in speculating.

    This is also bang on mission for this website, since this has become a major political story in the US (and elsewhere in fact), with ongoing rounds of fresh legislation, quangos and congressional oversight sessions and hearings.

    What’s disappointed me in the last 18months since I first raised the topic here, is that no one more expert than I in the machinations of US congressional politics has been able to better explain what’s going on from a political perspective, or even really attempt to.
    You need a lot of intellectual courage and self confidence to approach a story (let alone a thesis about the story) what has been viciously stigmatised for decades. Everyone is scared of being laughed at, or looking a fool


    See the mocking laughter on this vid

    https://twitter.com/RedPandaKoala/status/1548798696375980032?s=20&t=VB90Nomp4d7CCoX_kHexzQ
    How do we know the aliens are not already here? Our next PM, Liz Truss could even be an alien, who knows!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    edited July 2022

    Andy_JS said:

    When does this farce of an election finally come to an end?

    5th September. Winner goes to the Palace the next day.
    If her Maj can hold on until then then at least the fat clown wont be leading the nation in mourning which would mainly involve him telling us how she could not reign without his constant help and she had told him no premier was greater etc etc.

    Indeed, the Queen doesn't deserve a Peppa Pig style eulogy, and BigDog doesn't deserve to be in a position to give one. Whatever my views on Ms. Truss she will perform such a dour task with less alacrity than the Clown.
    The dancing on the Queen's grave might get started very briskly instead.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This is an excellent graphic on the UAP conundrum: helps to visualise what might and might not be happening


    Do you have a link? The posted image is too small to read.
    Sure. Try this


    https://twitter.com/Ginsburg/status/1550195411960430594?s=20&t=2TqIeHlP-7THrAi1wKDSiw
    Cheers. Bigger graphic to for those interested:

    image
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401

    Leon said:

    This is an excellent graphic on the UAP conundrum: helps to visualise what might and might not be happening


    Do you have a link? The posted image is too small to read.
    I see the word 'mental' is in deep red though.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,257
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    alex_ said:

    Truss is surely going to have a problem appointing a Chancellor who isn’t completely bonkers, given that they will have no reputation left. The markets are hardly going to happy with huge tax cuts that don’t even claim to be funded.

    Would Rishi accept if offered the job?
    Rishi is more likely to be offered Ambassador to Moscow by Truss or Ambassador to Pakistan than to be her Chancellor, most likely it will be Kwarteng or Clarke
    It'll be disappointing if he moves to Silicon Valley if he doesn't win the contest.
    I wouldn't be surprised, David Miliband moved to a $1 million a year job heading a charity in Manhattan after losing to Ed, Clegg moved to a multi million dollar a year job with Facebook in Silicon Valley after defeat in 2015, Sunak would likely move to the West or East coast of the US too if he lost
    One of my Blairite friends (who are all now twitching because they can smell power) sent me a clip of David Miliband giving a lecture.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=voDpzdE0K4M&feature=youtu.be

    I think the UK has fallen into the rather unfortunate habit of pushing PM possibles into contests too soon. Miliband, older and much wiser, would make an excellent PM now.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Andy_JS said:
    Wasn't Derby once nearly in Scotland?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,270
    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    When does this farce of an election finally come to an end?

    5th September. Winner goes to the Palace the next day.
    If her Maj can hold on until then then at least the fat clown wont be leading the nation in mourning which would mainly involve him telling us how she could not reign without his constant help and she had told him no premier was greater etc etc.

    Indeed, the Queen doesn't deserve a Peppa Pig style eulogy, and BigDog doesn't deserve to be in a position to give one. Whatever my views on Ms. Truss she will perform such a dour task with less alacrity than the Clown.
    The dancing on the Queen's grave might get started very briskly instead.
    That guarantees a lost VONC the next day
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,644

    Andy_JS said:

    When does this farce of an election finally come to an end?

    5th September. Winner goes to the Palace the next day.
    If her Maj can hold on until then then at least the fat clown wont be leading the nation in mourning which would mainly involve him telling us how she could not reign without his constant help and she had told him no premier was greater etc etc.

    Indeed, the Queen doesn't deserve a Peppa Pig style eulogy, and BigDog doesn't deserve to be in a position to give one. Whatever my views on Ms. Truss she will perform such a dour task with less alacrity than the Clown.
    We import two-thirds of our royal dynasties. That is a disgrace.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    alex_ said:

    dixiedean said:

    This site hates Truss and is losing its shit.

    It's going to drive people away who have something different to say about her, affect the betting and lose people a lot of money.

    Get a grip. Be objective.

    @Gardenwalker one of the few making good observations here tonight. @rcs1000 too.

    I don't hate her. She's saying the economic system isn't working for folk.
    She's not wrong either.
    Saying the system isn’t working doesn’t mean her “solutions” will make things better.
    Not it doesn't at all.
    But it is at least a start of a conversation that hasn't been had. Except by Corbyn.
    Perhaps she is true to her left wing childhood. By bringing on the crisis of capitalism she is creating the conditions for revolution.

    "The worse, the better" as Lenin once said.
    Our highly unequal and increasingly divided society is the direct consequence of Thatcherism 1.0, and she is promising Thatcherism 2.0 as the solution. Only this time without the oil revenues or the Single Market. It's not going to be pretty.
    Nor indeed much to privatise.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,690

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Popular Mechanics suggests (alongside British astronaut Tim Peake) that the UFOs might be terrestrial time travellers

    https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/a40665405/are-ufos-time-traveling-humans/

    If they are aliens travelling from outside the solar system how have they not been spotted given the amount of star gazing that goes on. It is not feasible.

    As for time travellers I just don’t believe that either.
    When radar was in its infancy there were many unexplained things picked up, often known as angels. Better tech and better understanding meant we don’t see them anymore. I would not be surprised if the latest nonsense is similar - glitches in new shiny kit, seemingly showing solid objects performing gravity and physics defying acts.
    And from there people leap to either aliens, or advanced earth kit that we know nothing about.
    I miss Occam.
    "the latest nonsense"

    You aren't really following this story, are you?
    More than you might think, but i am very skpetical. Fortean Times had an article this month. There is nothing that’s been shown that has convinced me of anything that might be inexplicable.
    Sadly too many people WANT it to be aliens and thus drives their logic.
    It might just as likely be Angels.
    I keep hearing that the good stuff doesn’t get released. I call bollocks, it doesn’t exist. I’ve been following Fortean stuff since I was 10.
    And again - big sigh - if this is your position you have to explain the antics of the entire American Establishment from President Obama to Senator Rubio to the new head of NASA to the ex heads of the CIA, the US Navy, MI, journalists at the NYT, WashPo, Newsweek, the Hill, CNN, and so on


    Do you REALLY think that this entire UAP story can be explained by "glitches in new shiny kit", and no one has worked this out in the USA?

    Occam's razor, which you profess to wield, suggests your explanation is twaddle
    Anyone talking about mere glitches in kit has not paid attention to the totality of evidence and testimony, it’s as simple as that. There IS something highly puzzling going on. None of us can know what it is but we can certainly apply ourselves in speculating.

    This is also bang on mission for this website, since this has become a major political story in the US (and elsewhere in fact), with ongoing rounds of fresh legislation, quangos and congressional oversight sessions and hearings.

    What’s disappointed me in the last 18months since I first raised the topic here, is that no one more expert than I in the machinations of US
    congressional politics has been able to better
    explain what’s going on from a political
    perspective, or even really attempt to.

    At heart I think you believe it’s aliens. I don’t think it is, any more than it was when Second World War pilots saw Foo Fighters, or the first reports of something skimming like flying saucers, or the Warminster flap of the 60s and 70s, or Travis Walton or any of it.
    “Aliens” fits the limited but growing dataset. I also don’t understand why anyone sees that as an implausible explanation. The whole point of Fermi’s Paradox was that Von Neumann probes should have covered the whole galaxy, so “where are they?”. It might be as straightforward as “everywhere including here, we just didn’t choose to recognise the evidence until now”.

    This said, we for now also have to remain open to what I consider to be extremely convoluted conspiracies. That some actor has been hiding ultratech for decades but for reasons unknown acts like a flasher in a fur coat with startling regularity in front of the rest of the US military. Or that there is no ultratech at all and for reasons unknown the US deep state is manipulating the political process to pretend that there is.

    This is without delving into the more exotic intradimensional, time travelling options, or to go more comic book with some other unknown earth origin civilisation (human or non human), or more techbro with an artefact of the Simulation.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    alex_ said:

    Cicero said:

    IDS in drag is not going to cut the mustard. The difference of course is that IDS was never Prime Minister.

    The more you deconstruct Liz Truss the worse it gets. Confidence is just going to collapse and the freedom of action for a chaotic government will be very limited. In the end who are her allies in the Parliamentary party and the Cabinet? Is JRM pitching for Chancellor? Does she leave Patel or Dorries in place? This could be an even worse cabinet than Johnson´s last gasp. In short, WTF?

    No need to WTF a cabinet that hasn't been named yet.

    Once she's won she'll be riding high and there isn't going to be another leadership election for a while, I think she can reasonably do a Party Unity thing with people from all the factions in appropriate jobs. For instance leave JRM and Dorries where they are, they're ridiculous but they're not doing any serious damage. Then put Sunak or Javid back in as chancellor, get rid of Patel since she's quite incident-prone and doesn't seem to have endorsed, bring Hunt back in if he's up for it, that sort of thing.
    Dorries - depends what your views are on channel4. The idea that she could make Sunak Chancellor is quite amusing though!

    “Your policies are economic lunacy”. “ How do you fancy implementing them?
    Everybody knows the leadership arguments are all for show.
    The relationship between a PM and their Chancellor are about the most important there are in U.K. politics, with the chancellor having an enormous degree of institutional independence. The idea that a leadership election can be fought with absolutely fundamental disagreement over economic policy and then the new PM give the other the job at chancellor is ridiculous.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This is an excellent graphic on the UAP conundrum: helps to visualise what might and might not be happening


    Do you have a link? The posted image is too small to read.
    Sure. Try this


    https://twitter.com/Ginsburg/status/1550195411960430594?s=20&t=2TqIeHlP-7THrAi1wKDSiw
    Cheers. Bigger graphic to for those interested:

    image
    Yes, that's better

    (How did you do that?)


    From this splendid infographic we can see that @turbotubbs is going for Prosaic > Natural > Optical

    Which, to my mind, can certainly explain some of the images - eg Gimbal, and GoFast, but does absolutely nothing to explain the turbulence on this issue in high American political/military/journalistic circles. I just don't believe they'd get in such a flap over a fly on the lens, or a gremlin in a gyroscope
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,257

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    alex_ said:

    dixiedean said:

    This site hates Truss and is losing its shit.

    It's going to drive people away who have something different to say about her, affect the betting and lose people a lot of money.

    Get a grip. Be objective.

    @Gardenwalker one of the few making good observations here tonight. @rcs1000 too.

    I don't hate her. She's saying the economic system isn't working for folk.
    She's not wrong either.
    Saying the system isn’t working doesn’t mean her “solutions” will make things better.
    Not it doesn't at all.
    But it is at least a start of a conversation that hasn't been had. Except by Corbyn.
    Perhaps she is true to her left wing childhood. By bringing on the crisis of capitalism she is creating the conditions for revolution.

    "The worse, the better" as Lenin once said.
    "She's saying the economic system isn't working for folk.
    She's not wrong either."

    iirc May said exactly the same thing with Nick Timothy writing reams of back up analysis to support the view.

    Plus ca change.

    Nothing will be achieved.
    Nick’s analysis was up to much.
    His chief contribution to public policy seems to have been dismantling everything with George Osborne’s name on it.

    I wonder who Truss’s eminences gris would be?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    When does this farce of an election finally come to an end?

    5th September. Winner goes to the Palace the next day.
    If her Maj can hold on until then then at least the fat clown wont be leading the nation in mourning which would mainly involve him telling us how she could not reign without his constant help and she had told him no premier was greater etc etc.

    Indeed, the Queen doesn't deserve a Peppa Pig style eulogy, and BigDog doesn't deserve to be in a position to give one. Whatever my views on Ms. Truss she will perform such a dour task with less alacrity than the Clown.
    The dancing on the Queen's grave might get started very briskly instead.
    It would have under Johnson too. I am not sure London Bridge has the same incumbency effect than comprehensively beating Putin will.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    Cyclefree said:

    dixiedean said:

    This site hates Truss and is losing its shit.

    It's going to drive people away who have something different to say about her, affect the betting and lose people a lot of money.

    Get a grip. Be objective.

    @Gardenwalker one of the few making good observations here tonight. @rcs1000 too.

    I don't hate her. She's saying the economic system isn't working for folk.
    She's not wrong either.
    She's been in the government for the best part of what, a decade, telling us that this economic system was wonderful and we should all vote for the Tories.

    And now we're supposed to believe that .... well, what ..... exactly?
    I mean, if she really thinks the economic consensus has been wrong for the last few decades, well, that's not the manifesto the Tory party was elected on in 2019. So she ought to get her own mandate and let us - the voters (remember us?) - decide whether we want what she's offering.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    Andy_JS said:
    Better than Truman at the same stage ;-)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    Cyclefree said:

    dixiedean said:

    This site hates Truss and is losing its shit.

    It's going to drive people away who have something different to say about her, affect the betting and lose people a lot of money.

    Get a grip. Be objective.

    @Gardenwalker one of the few making good observations here tonight. @rcs1000 too.

    I don't hate her. She's saying the economic system isn't working for folk.
    She's not wrong either.
    She's been in the government for the best part of what, a decade, telling us that this economic system was wonderful and we should all vote for the Tories.

    And now we're supposed to believe that .... well, what ..... exactly?
    That this is a completely new government. The fifth change of administration since 2010.
    It's becoming increasingly strained.
    But folk may fall for it.
    Again.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,270
    I see Sunak on LBC with Marr said the polling evidence was Liz Truss would lose the next general election, no way she gives him a Cabinet job after that
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    alex_ said:

    Truss is surely going to have a problem appointing a Chancellor who isn’t completely bonkers, given that they will have no reputation left. The markets are hardly going to happy with huge tax cuts that don’t even claim to be funded.

    Would Rishi accept if offered the job?
    Rishi is more likely to be offered Ambassador to Moscow by Truss or Ambassador to Pakistan than to be her Chancellor, most likely it will be Kwarteng or Clarke
    Lilico has pointed out that Truss and Sunak are so split on the economics that he could not possibly be in her cabinet and maintain Cabinet responsibility levels.

    It’s hard to see how she stayed in successive Conservative cabinets on that basis. She’s been in cabinet since 2014.

    Nice shot of her on News at 10 (as then Chief Secretary to the Treasury) enthusiastically patting Phil Hammond on the back after he’d just delivered a budget.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,166
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    dixiedean said:

    Cyclefree said:

    dixiedean said:

    This site hates Truss and is losing its shit.

    It's going to drive people away who have something different to say about her, affect the betting and lose people a lot of money.

    Get a grip. Be objective.

    @Gardenwalker one of the few making good observations here tonight. @rcs1000 too.

    I don't hate her. She's saying the economic system isn't working for folk.
    She's not wrong either.
    She's been in the government for the best part of what, a decade, telling us that this economic system was wonderful and we should all vote for the Tories.

    And now we're supposed to believe that .... well, what ..... exactly?
    That this is a completely new government. The fifth change of administration since 2010.
    It's becoming increasingly strained.
    But folk may fall for it.
    Again.
    It is so contemptuous of us, the voters.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,923
    Cicero said:

    Cicero said:

    IDS in drag is not going to cut the mustard. The difference of course is that IDS was never Prime Minister.

    The more you deconstruct Liz Truss the worse it gets. Confidence is just going to collapse and the freedom of action for a chaotic government will be very limited. In the end who are her allies in the Parliamentary party and the Cabinet? Is JRM pitching for Chancellor? Does she leave Patel or Dorries in place? This could be an even worse cabinet than Johnson´s last gasp. In short, WTF?

    Give us a wee Finnish tip.
    Apologies that I am not able to oblige for the time being. I have been asked to hold off and will do so. It is nevertheless extremely serious.
    I'm not sure "serious" is the word I'd use.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,270
    edited July 2022
    Andy_JS said:
    DeSantis, though Trump still leads him in most 2024 GOP primary polls and he is in a tough race with Charlie Crist for re election as Florida governor in November, Florida a pro choice state

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Andy_JS said:
    De Santis
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    Cyclefree said:

    dixiedean said:

    Cyclefree said:

    dixiedean said:

    This site hates Truss and is losing its shit.

    It's going to drive people away who have something different to say about her, affect the betting and lose people a lot of money.

    Get a grip. Be objective.

    @Gardenwalker one of the few making good observations here tonight. @rcs1000 too.

    I don't hate her. She's saying the economic system isn't working for folk.
    She's not wrong either.
    She's been in the government for the best part of what, a decade, telling us that this economic system was wonderful and we should all vote for the Tories.

    And now we're supposed to believe that .... well, what ..... exactly?
    That this is a completely new government. The fifth change of administration since 2010.
    It's becoming increasingly strained.
    But folk may fall for it.
    Again.
    It is so contemptuous of us, the voters.
    Well indeed.
    Thus far, we are fully deserving of it.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    rcs1000 said:

    Cicero said:

    Cicero said:

    IDS in drag is not going to cut the mustard. The difference of course is that IDS was never Prime Minister.

    The more you deconstruct Liz Truss the worse it gets. Confidence is just going to collapse and the freedom of action for a chaotic government will be very limited. In the end who are her allies in the Parliamentary party and the Cabinet? Is JRM pitching for Chancellor? Does she leave Patel or Dorries in place? This could be an even worse cabinet than Johnson´s last gasp. In short, WTF?

    Give us a wee Finnish tip.
    Apologies that I am not able to oblige for the time being. I have been asked to hold off and will do so. It is nevertheless extremely serious.
    I'm not sure "serious" is the word I'd use.
    And your word would be .....?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    dixiedean said:

    This site hates Truss and is losing its shit.

    It's going to drive people away who have something different to say about her, affect the betting and lose people a lot of money.

    Get a grip. Be objective.

    @Gardenwalker one of the few making good observations here tonight. @rcs1000 too.

    I don't hate her. She's saying the economic system isn't working for folk.
    She's not wrong either.
    She's been in the government for the best part of what, a decade, telling us that this economic system was wonderful and we should all vote for the Tories.

    And now we're supposed to believe that .... well, what ..... exactly?
    I mean, if she really thinks the economic consensus has been wrong for the last few decades, well, that's not the manifesto the Tory party was elected on in 2019. So she ought to get her own mandate and let us - the voters (remember us?) - decide whether we want what she's offering.
    She might as well. It's the only conceivable way she might win.

    Rather hard for the Tories to say: "Vote for us and overturn the last 12 years of economic mismanagement" though.
  • @BartholomewRoberts do you agree or disagree that voting Labour in 2019 was endorsing anti-Semitism

    Disagree.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,060

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    alex_ said:

    Truss is surely going to have a problem appointing a Chancellor who isn’t completely bonkers, given that they will have no reputation left. The markets are hardly going to happy with huge tax cuts that don’t even claim to be funded.

    Would Rishi accept if offered the job?
    Rishi is more likely to be offered Ambassador to Moscow by Truss or Ambassador to Pakistan than to be her Chancellor, most likely it will be Kwarteng or Clarke
    It'll be disappointing if he moves to Silicon Valley if he doesn't win the contest.
    I wouldn't be surprised, David Miliband moved to a $1 million a year job heading a charity in Manhattan after losing to Ed, Clegg moved to a multi million dollar a year job with Facebook in Silicon Valley after defeat in 2015, Sunak would likely move to the West or East coast of the US too if he lost
    One of my Blairite friends (who are all now twitching because they can smell power) sent me a clip of David Miliband giving a lecture.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=voDpzdE0K4M&feature=youtu.be

    I think the UK has fallen into the rather unfortunate habit of pushing PM possibles into contests too soon. Miliband, older and much wiser, would make an excellent PM now.
    It is the responsibility of any PM possible not to be "pushed" to early.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,772
    HYUFD said:

    I see Sunak on LBC with Marr said the polling evidence was Liz Truss would lose the next general election, no way she gives him a Cabinet job after that

    I don’t think he’d want one. I get the feeling for Rishi it’s PM or nothing now.

    That came across in his resignation letter too when he said “this might be the last job in government I hold” or something along those lines.

    He’s going to be PM and if he isn’t then he’ll stand down at the next election and get a big job in the States. I don’t think his hearts in it to be playing second fiddle anymore. He was always going to stick around til Boris fell, try for the leadership and exit stage right if it didn’t work out, IMHO.
  • dixiedean said:

    This site hates Truss and is losing its shit.

    It's going to drive people away who have something different to say about her, affect the betting and lose people a lot of money.

    Get a grip. Be objective.

    @Gardenwalker one of the few making good observations here tonight. @rcs1000 too.

    I don't hate her. She's saying the economic system isn't working for folk.
    She's not wrong either.
    I'm so old that I thought that Brexit had fixed that because it was all the neo-liberal european technocrats fault.
    No, Brexit fixed it because we could untether ourselves from Euro-sclerosis.
    Brexit never fixed anything, it just gave us the opportunity to untether ourselves from Eurosclerosis.

    Whether we seize that opportunity or not, is up to us as a nation. It won't happen by itself.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    I'm calling it: Truss will be PM longer than Cameron.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,923
    carnforth said:

    Talking of Italian troubles, everyone remembers the Cyprus confiscation of depositor funds during the Euro crisis, but I ran across this, which I had never heard of, a few days ago:

    "In July 1992 Italy’s Socialist Prime Minister Giuliano Amato imposed a one-off levy on bank accounts. It was a mere 0.6% in comparison with Cyprus’s scheme, and it still left a lasting scar on the country’s financial psyche."

    A blog post on other confiscations:

    https://carolabinder.blogspot.com/2013/03/cyprus-levy-historical-precedents.html

    Well, you clearly weren't on the site back in 2012, because I noted other notable bank levys at the time.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    edited July 2022

    dixiedean said:

    This site hates Truss and is losing its shit.

    It's going to drive people away who have something different to say about her, affect the betting and lose people a lot of money.

    Get a grip. Be objective.

    @Gardenwalker one of the few making good observations here tonight. @rcs1000 too.

    I don't hate her. She's saying the economic system isn't working for folk.
    She's not wrong either.
    I'm so old that I thought that Brexit had fixed that because it was all the neo-liberal european technocrats fault.
    No, Brexit fixed it because we could untether ourselves from Euro-sclerosis.
    Brexit never fixed anything, it just gave us the opportunity to untether ourselves from Eurosclerosis.

    Whether we seize that opportunity or not, is up to us as a nation. It won't happen by itself.
    Thus Brexiteers blame others for the inevitable failure of Brexit.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,871
    edited July 2022
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    alex_ said:

    Truss is surely going to have a problem appointing a Chancellor who isn’t completely bonkers, given that they will have no reputation left. The markets are hardly going to happy with huge tax cuts that don’t even claim to be funded.

    Would Rishi accept if offered the job?
    Rishi is more likely to be offered Ambassador to Moscow by Truss or Ambassador to Pakistan than to be her Chancellor, most likely it will be Kwarteng or Clarke
    Lilico has pointed out that Truss and Sunak are so split on the economics that he could not possibly be in her cabinet and maintain Cabinet responsibility levels.

    It’s hard to see how she stayed in successive Conservative cabinets on that basis. She’s been in cabinet since 2014.

    Nice shot of her on News at 10 (as then Chief Secretary to the Treasury) enthusiastically patting Phil Hammond on the back after he’d just delivered a budget.
    No she hasn't! Chief Secretary to the Treasury is not a Cabinet post*, though the holder does 'attend' Cabinet. That distinction is very important to me, because it limits the amount of time Jacob Rees-Mogg has been officially a Cabinet Minister.

    This is First Secretary of State/Deputy PM confusion all over again.

    *Edit - anymore. In fairness to Truss she only just missed out on that according to wiki. I actually have no idea, I just don't want the 'attends Cabinet' to count for the JRM reason.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586

    I'm calling it: Truss will be PM longer than Cameron.

    Mr Flip-Flop speaks
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,690
    Cyclefree said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Cicero said:

    Cicero said:

    IDS in drag is not going to cut the mustard. The difference of course is that IDS was never Prime Minister.

    The more you deconstruct Liz Truss the worse it gets. Confidence is just going to collapse and the freedom of action for a chaotic government will be very limited. In the end who are her allies in the Parliamentary party and the Cabinet? Is JRM pitching for Chancellor? Does she leave Patel or Dorries in place? This could be an even worse cabinet than Johnson´s last gasp. In short, WTF?

    Give us a wee Finnish tip.
    Apologies that I am not able to oblige for the time being. I have been asked to hold off and will do so. It is nevertheless extremely serious.
    I'm not sure "serious" is the word I'd use.
    And your word would be .....?
    Hilarious? Treasonous?

    Where on the scale are we looking
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    edited July 2022
    If we're going to talk aliens and time travel, can I just say I have been enjoying Dilbert this week:

    https://dilbert.com/strip/2022-07-18
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,257

    I'm calling it: Truss will be PM longer than Cameron.

    Please show your working.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    edited July 2022
    I guess what I'm trying to say, inspired by @Casino_Royale saying everyone hates her is. And I can't believe I'm defending Liz Truss here, but.
    We are in an unprecedented Cost of Living crisis.
    When no one knows what to do, she, at least has an alternative to business as usual.
    The fact almost all mainstream economists think it isn't feasible, is neither here nor there.
    It is a plan. In the absence of any other.
    What we have isn't working. That's plain.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,287
    Cyclefree said:

    alex_ said:

    A warning for Truss seeing herself as the next Thatcher - Thatchers first few years were a complete economic disaster.

    The Tory party needs to stop viewing its leaders as copies of previous leaders. Thatcher died in 2013. She was last in power in 1990. The world has changed since then. A political party - an intelligent one - needs to analyse the problems of today and come up with solutions for today's problems. Not think that offering up a reheated version of old solutions, often poorly understood, is the answer.

    Wait a second here. For all his manifold faults, back in 2005, David Cameron didn’t present himself as a born again Thatcherite.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677
    For a taste of how serious American politicians are taking UAPs, watch this vid from about 2:00 onwards

    These are important members of Congress with important roles. American politicos are facing the mid-terms. Why on earth would they risk ridicule, mockery, and electoral punishment, unless they genuinely think there is something profound to investigate?

    https://twitter.com/uncertainvector/status/1549495419343802368?s=20&t=VB90Nomp4d7CCoX_kHexzQ


    They could of course be wrong, or lying, or conspiring, but their behaviour needs to be explained
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,424
    edited July 2022
    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    For anyone doing the fasting thing - it does work (I lost 18kg/40lbs doing it a few years ago) but don't get excited by the first week or so - that can just be water coming off.

    I'm now on the eat loads/exercise loads diet, and feel amazing. My mental health correlates with huge amounts of carbs + running.

    What fasting techniques did you use? How long, how often, etc?

    Ta
    I did intermittent fasting to begin with, very low calorie days during the week generally. Coffee, apples, chicken (protein is important to keep you full), lots of water. Exercise and carbs at the weekends.

    Once I'd made good progress I moved to looser stuff - no food after 7pm, smalle dinners, no snacks at all, no crisps or bread. And, as others have suggested, no alcohol unless at a pub.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,257
    edited July 2022

    HYUFD said:

    I see Sunak on LBC with Marr said the polling evidence was Liz Truss would lose the next general election, no way she gives him a Cabinet job after that

    I don’t think he’d want one. I get the feeling for Rishi it’s PM or nothing now.

    That came across in his resignation letter too when he said “this might be the last job in government I hold” or something along those lines.

    He’s going to be PM and if he isn’t then he’ll stand down at the next election and get a big job in the States. I don’t think his hearts in it to be playing second fiddle anymore. He was always going to stick around til Boris fell, try for the leadership and exit stage right if it didn’t work out, IMHO.
    If Rishi doesn’t have to heart to “play second fiddle anymore”, he probably misunderstood something about the job.

    He’s been a MP a mere 7 years, and a proper Cabinet Minister for barely 3, admittedly as Chancellor. It’s a meteoric rise, and it’s presumptuous to expect that his second fiddling days must be over.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,687
    Andy_JS said:
    Insulting to Scotland.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320

    I'm calling it: Truss will be PM longer than Cameron.

    Please show your working.
    2 years in charge to establish her reputation as a transformative leader setting the terms of post-Brexit British politics, followed by an election win against Sir Boring. That would give her 7 years in Downing Street.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    Missing from that UAP graphic is:

    "The re-emergence of deep-sleeper AI left behind by the dinosaurs who developed the technology just before the asteroid wiped them out 66m years ago".

    Just saying.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,800

    I'm calling it: Truss will be PM longer than Cameron.

    On what basis, apart from provoking a response, do you make that assertion?

    I think it highly likely Starmer will be the Prime Minister after next not because of any huge support for him, belief in him or his ideas or his charisma but simply because the electorate will be happy to give Truss a kicking and the Conservatives the coup de grace after 14 years of leading Government.

    The longevity and performance of the next Government will be critical to the answer to the next big political question - when does Kemi Badenoch become Prime Minister?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    Leon said:

    For a taste of how serious American politicians are taking UAPs, watch this vid from about 2:00 onwards

    These are important members of Congress with important roles. American politicos are facing the mid-terms. Why on earth would they risk ridicule, mockery, and electoral punishment, unless they genuinely think there is something profound to investigate?

    https://twitter.com/uncertainvector/status/1549495419343802368?s=20&t=VB90Nomp4d7CCoX_kHexzQ


    They could of course be wrong, or lying, or conspiring, but their behaviour needs to be explained

    Or perhaps they just want to curry favour with those that think aliens have been probing their anuses for years.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080

    I'm calling it: Truss will be PM longer than Cameron.

    How long will she have non-entities like Rees-Mogg in her cabinet?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,166
    Leon said:

    For a taste of how serious American politicians are taking UAPs, watch this vid from about 2:00 onwards

    These are important members of Congress with important roles. American politicos are facing the mid-terms. Why on earth would they risk ridicule, mockery, and electoral punishment, unless they genuinely think there is something profound to investigate?

    https://twitter.com/uncertainvector/status/1549495419343802368?s=20&t=VB90Nomp4d7CCoX_kHexzQ


    They could of course be wrong, or lying, or conspiring, but their behaviour needs to be explained

    I blame the X-Files.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639

    Missing from that UAP graphic is:

    "The re-emergence of deep-sleeper AI left behind by the dinosaurs who developed the technology just before the asteroid wiped them out 66m years ago".

    Just saying.

    Something missing there, as there are plenty of dinos crapping on my shed roof at present.
  • pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Despite one poll, which one of our number seems convinced is evidence most people in the country love Liz Truss and are looking forward to the forthcoming economic illiteracy, I imagine the opposition parties are quite content with events.

    Truss will be desperate to get some form of "bounce" and we'll all end up paying for it with her absurd unfunded tax cuts. Clearly, there are those who think cutting taxes is all that matters - it isn't. June's borrowing figures were awful and not helped by rising inflation and interest rates - after all, inflation is too much money chasing too few goods so giving people more money to spend is a sure fire way of reducing inflation?

    The Lafferites and their fellow travellers are obviously hoping the populism will be enough - maybe but I prefer to wonder about increased defence spending, money for education, the NHS, pensions, local Government services and all those small adjuncts to a civilised life beyond simply paying less in tax.

    The Sunak approach is boring but sensible - the Truss approach is championed by those for whom the only nightmare paying more tax is a non-Conservative Government. The perpetuation of the Conservative Party in Government justifies anything and everything including the evisceration of the public finances.

    Simple question for those who think Laffer is nonsense, given we've supposedly had "austerity" for most of the past 12 years and given we've got tax rates at the highest they've been in three quarters of a century - if Laffer is a nonsense why don't we have a huge budget surplus?
    We don't have a surplus because while taxes are high spending is even higher. Spending is high because we have an elderly population who receive pensions and free healthcare. An elderly population also means relatively fewer taxpayers, and more tax per taxpayer.
    Cutting taxes without cutting spending will increase the deficit. Spending on things other than the elderly is already at low levels, unsustainably so in many cases. And spending on the elderly won't be cut because the Tories are the pensioner party. So Truss's voodoo economics just means higher debt and, most likely, even shittier public services than we have already.
    This is stage two of the Brexit sucker punch that I predicted on here some time ago. Stage one: Brexit, followed by economic stagnation. Stage two: the economy is stagnating, so we must slash the state and tear up regulation. No doubt there will be other stages of even more poverty and anger, even more populism, even more slash and burn. Repeat until we look like Alabama.
    So how would you suppose we should get spending down on the elderly population's pensions and healthcare?

    Personally I've said we need to tax the Grey vote more, and give fewer sweeties to the Grey voters which would cut the bills.

    While a side-effect and not the motivation, I'm also quite OK with letting Covid rip even if that means more Covid fatalities which would mean fewer Grey voters at the next election, fewer Grey pension liabilities and fewer Grey healthcare appointments in the future (the dead don't appear on waiting lists).

    But almost every left-wing voter here seems to want to not just moan about the Tories being the 'pensioner party' but want to object any time a Tory threatens the Triple Lock, and any time less than perfect protection against Covid is suggested.
    You've just identified the correct means to solve the problem of the gap between taxation and day-to-day Government spending, if you're committed not to slashing spending. Higher taxes.

    The Truss prospectus is bonkers: effectively, she wishes to cut taxes very considerably without having to make difficult and unpopular cuts to services like healthcare and payouts like pensions, by the simple expedient of borrowing to fund the gap (and keeping her fingers crossed that Laffer will kick in quickly and the proceeds of growth will plug said gap in a year or two.)

    Problems:

    1. She's inviting another substantial ramping up of inflation, firstly through releasing all that extra cash into what is (relative to most of Europe) already a comparatively low tax economy; and secondly through a crackpot borrow-to-spend policy which poses a serious risk of triggering a run on the pound.

    2. She's also burning the Tories' USP as the party of fiscal responsibility. If we can lower taxes, borrow as much as we like to directly fund public spending, and get away with it (spoiler: we can't) then what happens when Labour decides to enter a bidding war and says that it will borrow to give nurses a 15% pay hike? The Conservatives cannot win against Labour on such territory. Or, for that matter, what if Labour decides to say that Tory policy is unsustainable and reckless, and it would behave more responsibly - what is Truss's response to that? Or, for that matter, that of the substantial fraction of the Parliamentary party that will find itself in complete agreement with the Opposition over this?

    Most economists, and almost anyone out in the country at large who can be bothered to take long enough to think about this, can see that Truss is indulging in magical thinking, because daft elderly Tories want to hear that they can have spending on all the things and massive tax cuts at the same time.

    I suppose the best that can be said of this is that at least Truss has gone straight for more borrowing, rather than the alternative fantasy that we could find all the money if only we stamped on benefit scroungers hard enough. Which, given how many poor people are really struggling, how miserly social security is, and how high a proportion of claimants are in work, would really take the biscuit.
    1 - Low tax economy? Our taxes are at their highest rate in 74 years, how it that low tax?

    Tax cuts don't have to be inflationary, they can even be deflationary. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-62243400?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=62d9486ec0a04b7058299868&Tax cuts don't have to be inflationary - economist&2022-07-21T14:11:37.135Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:18d7cc62-9993-4a33-91b2-0ed5004ba82f&pinned_post_asset_id=62d9486ec0a04b7058299868&pinned_post_type=share

    2. If they do that, let them deal with it. If the Tories only exist for high taxes, what difference does it make?
    Relative to most of the rest of Europe, this is a low tax economy. The reason why taxation as a share of national wealth is higher than it has been for many decades is basically down to the country being full of ill, disabled and above all very old people who would not have survived seven decades ago. Life expectancy is about fifteen years greater than it was under the Attlee Ministry. This has obvious consequences.

    What we expect from the Conservatives is fiscal responsibility. Whether this entails following a Scandinavian model (with a reasonably pro-business environment but high levels of personal taxation and a generous welfare state,) or a low tax, small state model, people expect the sums to add up. A fantasy world of slashing taxes and hiking borrowing so that spending can stay where it is (or, indeed, increase: that promised hike in the defence budget has to come from somewhere) is neither of those things.

    I would say it looks more like Corbynism, except that John McDonnell's equivalent fantasy exercise in money printing was at least designed to go towards investment spending. Borrowing a l'outrance to cover routine expenditure (e.g. the public sector wage bill) is the sort of thing that happens in broke third world countries that have run out of credit with the IMF, and it will have wholly predictable and very nasty consequences for us all.
    Europe is a miserably failing continent mired in low-growth, why would you choose to set that as a baseline to hold ourselves up against, rather than looking at our past 74 years and recognising that we're at our highest taxes ever in that time? We're no longer even that low tax compared to much of Europe anymore either, but even if we were while having the highest taxes we've had in 74 years that would be like saying that the tallest toddler in the nursery should play basketball against the LA Lakers

    Fiscal responsibility is about more than just ratchetting up tax rates until the sums add up. The UK entered Covid19 without any real budget deficit after it fell for ten years in a row in the lead up to it. We could and should balance our budget over time but there is no requirement to do that overnight with massive tax hikes that just slaughter the economy, especially tax hikes that are unfairly placed only on working people and businesses which are then used to fund pre-election giveaways to people who aren't working.

    John McDonnell wanted to print money for day to day spending, even without a recession, which is what Brown did. Getting the economy back into balance before a recession then over a few years following a recession doing the same thing again is cyclical responsibility and not the same level of irresponsibility.

    Ratchetting up taxes so that the entire proceeds of development are going to pay the routine expenditure, most of which is going to fund the lives of those who aren't working for a living, is only going to strangle the economy and lead to higher and higher demands without any breaking of the cycle and that vision of nothing other than managed decline will inevitably end with the IMF too.

    Sound finances is about more than just managed decline.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,923
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This is an excellent graphic on the UAP conundrum: helps to visualise what might and might not be happening


    Do you have a link? The posted image is too small to read.
    Sure. Try this


    https://twitter.com/Ginsburg/status/1550195411960430594?s=20&t=2TqIeHlP-7THrAi1wKDSiw
    Cheers. Bigger graphic to for those interested:

    image
    Yes, that's better

    (How did you do that?)


    From this splendid infographic we can see that @turbotubbs is going for Prosaic > Natural > Optical

    Which, to my mind, can certainly explain some of the images - eg Gimbal, and GoFast, but does absolutely nothing to explain the turbulence on this issue in high American political/military/journalistic circles. I just don't believe they'd get in such a flap over a fly on the lens, or a gremlin in a gyroscope
    You have read The Men Who Stare at Goats, right?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,257
    edited July 2022

    I'm calling it: Truss will be PM longer than Cameron.

    Please show your working.
    2 years in charge to establish her reputation as a transformative leader setting the terms of post-Brexit British politics, followed by an election win against Sir Boring. That would give her 7 years in Downing Street.
    It’s not impossible, but at this stage we could really only describe the odds as “random”.

    I think Liz is underrated AND I think she’s right that it’s “not working” AND I think her prescription is crazy.

    First Bank of Japan, now Patrick Minford.
    It’s scary.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This is an excellent graphic on the UAP conundrum: helps to visualise what might and might not be happening


    Do you have a link? The posted image is too small to read.
    Sure. Try this


    https://twitter.com/Ginsburg/status/1550195411960430594?s=20&t=2TqIeHlP-7THrAi1wKDSiw
    Cheers. Bigger graphic to for those interested:

    image
    Yes, that's better

    (How did you do that?)


    From this splendid infographic we can see that @turbotubbs is going for Prosaic > Natural > Optical

    Which, to my mind, can certainly explain some of the images - eg Gimbal, and GoFast, but does absolutely nothing to explain the turbulence on this issue in high American political/military/journalistic circles. I just don't believe they'd get in such a flap over a fly on the lens, or a gremlin in a gyroscope
    Here's how: from the tweet, click on the graphic to make it bigger, then right-click and copy the image address.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,923
    Cyclefree said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Cicero said:

    Cicero said:

    IDS in drag is not going to cut the mustard. The difference of course is that IDS was never Prime Minister.

    The more you deconstruct Liz Truss the worse it gets. Confidence is just going to collapse and the freedom of action for a chaotic government will be very limited. In the end who are her allies in the Parliamentary party and the Cabinet? Is JRM pitching for Chancellor? Does she leave Patel or Dorries in place? This could be an even worse cabinet than Johnson´s last gasp. In short, WTF?

    Give us a wee Finnish tip.
    Apologies that I am not able to oblige for the time being. I have been asked to hold off and will do so. It is nevertheless extremely serious.
    I'm not sure "serious" is the word I'd use.
    And your word would be .....?
    @MikeSmithson - how much am I allowed to say?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This is an excellent graphic on the UAP conundrum: helps to visualise what might and might not be happening


    Do you have a link? The posted image is too small to read.
    Sure. Try this


    https://twitter.com/Ginsburg/status/1550195411960430594?s=20&t=2TqIeHlP-7THrAi1wKDSiw
    Cheers. Bigger graphic to for those interested:

    image
    Yes, that's better

    (How did you do that?)


    From this splendid infographic we can see that @turbotubbs is going for Prosaic > Natural > Optical

    Which, to my mind, can certainly explain some of the images - eg Gimbal, and GoFast, but does absolutely nothing to explain the turbulence on this issue in high American political/military/journalistic circles. I just don't believe they'd get in such a flap over a fly on the lens, or a gremlin in a gyroscope
    You have read The Men Who Stare at Goats, right?
    You asked me this before, and it's the same runaround
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401

    I'm calling it: Truss will be PM longer than Cameron.

    I think you mistyped, you mean Home surely?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080
    edited July 2022
    dixiedean said:

    I guess what I'm trying to say, inspired by @Casino_Royale saying everyone hates her is. And I can't believe I'm defending Liz Truss here, but.
    We are in an unprecedented Cost of Living crisis.
    When no one knows what to do, she, at least has an alternative to business as usual.
    The fact almost all mainstream economists think it isn't feasible, is neither here nor there.
    It is a plan. In the absence of any other.
    What we have isn't working. That's plain.

    I think this is one area where Labour are weak now. They don't necessarily need to give specifics, but they do need to give a clear sense of where they think the government is going wrong, and what their alternative would look like.

    Cameron and Osborne were very good at this in 2010. The government had gone wrong by spending too much and they would fix it by being responsible. But what is Labour's message now? The cost of living crisis sucks and the government is failing? It isn't clear enough. It doesn't take us a step forward.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,257
    edited July 2022
    rcs1000 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Cicero said:

    Cicero said:

    IDS in drag is not going to cut the mustard. The difference of course is that IDS was never Prime Minister.

    The more you deconstruct Liz Truss the worse it gets. Confidence is just going to collapse and the freedom of action for a chaotic government will be very limited. In the end who are her allies in the Parliamentary party and the Cabinet? Is JRM pitching for Chancellor? Does she leave Patel or Dorries in place? This could be an even worse cabinet than Johnson´s last gasp. In short, WTF?

    Give us a wee Finnish tip.
    Apologies that I am not able to oblige for the time being. I have been asked to hold off and will do so. It is nevertheless extremely serious.
    I'm not sure "serious" is the word I'd use.
    And your word would be .....?
    @MikeSmithson - how much am I allowed to say?
    Surely a mere verb is not libellous.

    Especially since we don’t even know who this rumour refers to.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,690
    rcs1000 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Cicero said:

    Cicero said:

    IDS in drag is not going to cut the mustard. The difference of course is that IDS was never Prime Minister.

    The more you deconstruct Liz Truss the worse it gets. Confidence is just going to collapse and the freedom of action for a chaotic government will be very limited. In the end who are her allies in the Parliamentary party and the Cabinet? Is JRM pitching for Chancellor? Does she leave Patel or Dorries in place? This could be an even worse cabinet than Johnson´s last gasp. In short, WTF?

    Give us a wee Finnish tip.
    Apologies that I am not able to oblige for the time being. I have been asked to hold off and will do so. It is nevertheless extremely serious.
    I'm not sure "serious" is the word I'd use.
    And your word would be .....?
    @MikeSmithson - how much am I allowed to
    say?
    You’re US based. Can’t you tweet free from the reach of super injunctions? (Within the bounds of defamation laws)

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    dixiedean said:

    This site hates Truss and is losing its shit.

    It's going to drive people away who have something different to say about her, affect the betting and lose people a lot of money.

    Get a grip. Be objective.

    @Gardenwalker one of the few making good observations here tonight. @rcs1000 too.

    I don't hate her. She's saying the economic system isn't working for folk.
    She's not wrong either.
    She's been in the government for the best part of what, a decade, telling us that this economic system was wonderful and we should all vote for the Tories.

    And now we're supposed to believe that .... well, what ..... exactly?
    I mean, if she really thinks the economic consensus has been wrong for the last few decades, well, that's not the manifesto the Tory party was elected on in 2019. So she ought to get her own mandate and let us - the voters (remember us?) - decide whether we want what she's offering.
    Yes. Agreeing with Rees Mogg pains me terribly but there should be a GE. Dec 19 was for "Boris" and Break Brexit Impasse. With him gone and that done it's extinguished. There is no mandate for a Truss or Sunak Conservative government. It's illegitimate in spirit if not in law.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    edited July 2022
    Carnyx said:

    Missing from that UAP graphic is:

    "The re-emergence of deep-sleeper AI left behind by the dinosaurs who developed the technology just before the asteroid wiped them out 66m years ago".

    Just saying.

    Something missing there, as there are plenty of dinos crapping on my shed roof at present.
    Yeah but they're not the ones that developed AI 66m years ago, they're just pigeons.

    Serious question: if the dinosaurs developed advanced technology in the 10,000 years before the K–Pg extinction event, how would we know?

    (Ok semi-serious question)
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639

    rcs1000 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Cicero said:

    Cicero said:

    IDS in drag is not going to cut the mustard. The difference of course is that IDS was never Prime Minister.

    The more you deconstruct Liz Truss the worse it gets. Confidence is just going to collapse and the freedom of action for a chaotic government will be very limited. In the end who are her allies in the Parliamentary party and the Cabinet? Is JRM pitching for Chancellor? Does she leave Patel or Dorries in place? This could be an even worse cabinet than Johnson´s last gasp. In short, WTF?

    Give us a wee Finnish tip.
    Apologies that I am not able to oblige for the time being. I have been asked to hold off and will do so. It is nevertheless extremely serious.
    I'm not sure "serious" is the word I'd use.
    And your word would be .....?
    @MikeSmithson - how much am I allowed to say?
    Surely a mere verb is not libellous.

    Especially since we don’t even know who this rumour refers to.
    Adjective surely?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    On topic - saying Truss or Sunak are going to be judged an PM by their actions as cabinet ministers isn’t going to happen. The public are not that deeply into the history of politics. They will be judged on what they do as PM. Bit like Starmer serving under Corbyn - everyone in the real world knows that you nod ok to the boss until one nanosecond after he is gone….

    OT - the next Ukrainian topic is artillery barrel replacement. The Russians are having fun with this, apparently. They’ve shot out most of their barrels, there is a lack of replacements, and the replacements have shit quality.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    edited July 2022

    Carnyx said:

    Missing from that UAP graphic is:

    "The re-emergence of deep-sleeper AI left behind by the dinosaurs who developed the technology just before the asteroid wiped them out 66m years ago".

    Just saying.

    Something missing there, as there are plenty of dinos crapping on my shed roof at present.
    Yeah but they're not the ones that developed AI 66m years ago, they're just pigeons.
    Ah, a comma or 'those' would have been helpful!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,270

    I'm calling it: Truss will be PM longer than Cameron.

    I think you mistyped, you mean Home surely?
    And Home nearly won in 1964
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,470
    dixiedean said:

    I guess what I'm trying to say, inspired by @Casino_Royale saying everyone hates her is. And I can't believe I'm defending Liz Truss here, but.
    We are in an unprecedented Cost of Living crisis.
    When no one knows what to do, she, at least has an alternative to business as usual.
    The fact almost all mainstream economists think it isn't feasible, is neither here nor there.
    It is a plan. In the absence of any other.
    What we have isn't working. That's plain.

    Its working for many millions.

    But not working for many millions of others.

    The thing to do is to improve the situation of many of the second group without hurting too many of the first group.

    Easier said than done of course.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,257
    edited July 2022
    Carnyx said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Cicero said:

    Cicero said:

    IDS in drag is not going to cut the mustard. The difference of course is that IDS was never Prime Minister.

    The more you deconstruct Liz Truss the worse it gets. Confidence is just going to collapse and the freedom of action for a chaotic government will be very limited. In the end who are her allies in the Parliamentary party and the Cabinet? Is JRM pitching for Chancellor? Does she leave Patel or Dorries in place? This could be an even worse cabinet than Johnson´s last gasp. In short, WTF?

    Give us a wee Finnish tip.
    Apologies that I am not able to oblige for the time being. I have been asked to hold off and will do so. It is nevertheless extremely serious.
    I'm not sure "serious" is the word I'd use.
    And your word would be .....?
    @MikeSmithson - how much am I allowed to say?
    Surely a mere verb is not libellous.

    Especially since we don’t even know who this rumour refers to.
    Adjective surely?
    Is fucking adjective or verb?
    Haha.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,923
    edited July 2022

    I'm calling it: Truss will be PM longer than Cameron.

    Phew, that's an interesting bet:

    David Cameron was PM for just over six years, so from September 2022, that's September 2028.

    Which means she needs to win in (probably) May 2024, and then remain in power for a further four and a bit years.

    Far from impossible: it is, after all, just what John Major achieved.

    What odds will people offer?
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705


    Especially since we don’t even know who this rumour refers to.

    If it doesn't involve time travelling AI alien dinosaurs, I'm not interested.
  • I'm calling it: Truss will be PM longer than Cameron.

    How long will she have non-entities like Rees-Mogg in her cabinet?
    Hopefully about as long as David Laws served in Cameron's Cabinet.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    dixiedean said:

    I guess what I'm trying to say, inspired by @Casino_Royale saying everyone hates her is. And I can't believe I'm defending Liz Truss here, but.
    We are in an unprecedented Cost of Living crisis.
    When no one knows what to do, she, at least has an alternative to business as usual.
    The fact almost all mainstream economists think it isn't feasible, is neither here nor there.
    It is a plan. In the absence of any other.
    What we have isn't working. That's plain.

    I think this is one area where Labour are weak now. They don't necessarily need to give specifics, but they do need to give a clear sense of what they think the government is going wrong, and what their alternative would look like.
    They need to hold off until the Tories have decided what their plan is.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639

    Carnyx said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Cicero said:

    Cicero said:

    IDS in drag is not going to cut the mustard. The difference of course is that IDS was never Prime Minister.

    The more you deconstruct Liz Truss the worse it gets. Confidence is just going to collapse and the freedom of action for a chaotic government will be very limited. In the end who are her allies in the Parliamentary party and the Cabinet? Is JRM pitching for Chancellor? Does she leave Patel or Dorries in place? This could be an even worse cabinet than Johnson´s last gasp. In short, WTF?

    Give us a wee Finnish tip.
    Apologies that I am not able to oblige for the time being. I have been asked to hold off and will do so. It is nevertheless extremely serious.
    I'm not sure "serious" is the word I'd use.
    And your word would be .....?
    @MikeSmithson - how much am I allowed to say?
    Surely a mere verb is not libellous.

    Especially since we don’t even know who this rumour refers to.
    Adjective surely?
    Is fucking adjective or verb?
    Haha.
    Adjective; it's the present participle.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This is an excellent graphic on the UAP conundrum: helps to visualise what might and might not be happening


    Do you have a link? The posted image is too small to read.
    Sure. Try this


    https://twitter.com/Ginsburg/status/1550195411960430594?s=20&t=2TqIeHlP-7THrAi1wKDSiw
    Cheers. Bigger graphic to for those interested:

    image
    Yes, that's better

    (How did you do that?)


    From this splendid infographic we can see that @turbotubbs is going for Prosaic > Natural > Optical

    Which, to my mind, can certainly explain some of the images - eg Gimbal, and GoFast, but does absolutely nothing to explain the turbulence on this issue in high American political/military/journalistic circles. I just don't believe they'd get in such a flap over a fly on the lens, or a gremlin in a gyroscope
    You have read The Men Who Stare at Goats, right?
    There is always the X-files ;)
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    I'm calling it: Truss will be PM longer than Cameron.

    Please show your workings out.
This discussion has been closed.