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YouGov CON members poll has Truss 24% ahead – politicalbetting.com

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  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,161

    Scott_xP said:

    Liz Truss backs privately funded royal yacht

    "I do support the idea of promoting our trade around the world. What I would be seeking is to get investment into a yacht, looking to the private sector to assist with that to make it financially viable”

    Victory for @christopherhope

    I wonder whether the Monarch will have to finish off each speech with "sponsored by....." and be required to do product placement like a James Bond movie? King Charles will turn to the camera and say "Not your Royal Yacht Lizzy, but Your M&S Royal Yacht Lizzy."
    The late Duke of Edinburgh was a second world war sailor. Since his death, is there any great naval tradition in the Royal Family? Prince Andrew, perhaps, but he is sidelined. The younger Royals will not even remember the Britannia. This might be an idea whose time has passed.

    There again, what will happen to all the confiscated oligarchs' yachts?
    You're forgetting Prince Charles on the RN active list 71-77. Ended up as a Lieutenant commanding a Minesweeper.

    Prince Philip was 39 to 52, ending up as a Commander.

    Prince Andrew was 1979-2001, ending up as a Commander.


  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Liz Truss backs privately funded royal yacht

    "I do support the idea of promoting our trade around the world. What I would be seeking is to get investment into a yacht, looking to the private sector to assist with that to make it financially viable”

    Victory for @christopherhope

    Clever move from Truss, she needs to re establish her royalist credentials with Tory members after that dreadful LD conference speech from her youth
    Cue the daily mail cartoon of her dressed as Brittania (the figure rather than the yacht) with Rishi skewered on her trident.

    And then HMTQ dies and they start referring to her as Elizabeth the Third
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,922
    Truss cuts Starmer's lead as preferred PM over her to 5%, 39% to 34%

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1550156191619235843?s=20&t=f37hitfRgvk8yj8YRPXQPg
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,899

    With the covid data now only updated weekly has it been mentioned that the latest wave is now receding:

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

    @Malmesbury posted updated Covid graphs yesterday.
    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4038738#Comment_4038738
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,289

    Leon said:

    Friend of mine has a theory that the aliens are a probably HOSTILE life form, and all the mystery is because governments have no idea how to break this terrifying news to humanity

    He's a very clever free thinker who sometimes gets things completely bang on out of nowhere - incredible insights - yet at the same time can entertain utterly mad ideas, at least for a while

    I hope this is one of his madder moments

    What are the aliens waiting for then?

    Are they hostile but polite, and would like to give humanity time to be properly briefed of its imminent demise?
    His idea is that they have been watching us for a while as we've slowly got more capable - mainly out of curiosity, but also just-in-case-we-do-something-dangerous - this is why their interest first really perked up when we mastered nukes

    Now that we have shown the capability to make and "release" terrible plagues AND we approach the AI singularity, they are getting less cautious and are preparing to wipe us out, as a biohazard

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Liz Truss backs privately funded royal yacht

    "I do support the idea of promoting our trade around the world. What I would be seeking is to get investment into a yacht, looking to the private sector to assist with that to make it financially viable”

    Victory for @christopherhope

    I wonder whether the Monarch will have to finish off each speech with "sponsored by....." and be required to do product placement like a James Bond movie? King Charles will turn to the camera and say "Not your Royal Yacht Lizzy, but Your M&S Royal Yacht Lizzy."
    The late Duke of Edinburgh was a second world war sailor. Since his death, is there any great naval tradition in the Royal Family? Prince Andrew, perhaps, but he is sidelined. The younger Royals will not even remember the Britannia. This might be an idea whose time has passed.

    There again, what will happen to all the confiscated oligarchs' yachts?
    Great idea, but a little blingy for Royal tastes I would hope.
    Also very, very tactless at a time of austerity - whether an Ersatz Britannia (as the Germans called planned replacements for vessels) or an oligarch's yacht. The maintenance and crewing and running are an issue, whomsoever paid for the vessel and its kit-out.
    Just reflecting on two things about the Britannia.

    (a) the living conditions for the crew were miserable - certainly by later standards in the RN.
    (b) It was always justified on the grounds that it would serve as a hospital ship in wartime. As it was commissioned after the Korean War ended, this function would be relevant to the Falklands War, but it was not used for that. I've read that this was because it used a different kind of bunker or fuel oil from the RN but other ships using the same oil were used in the Falklands so I don't know why not.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,874

    stodge said:


    You mentioned "austerity" - I didn't.

    I will cut the current Government quite a bit of slack - the response to the pandemic required financial largesse as the economy basically stopped in the spring of 2020. It's no surprise the deficit and the debt increased sharply but the response was required at the time.

    The response traditionally to public spending problems from the Conservative side has been to cut - as Osborne had it in 2010, for every £1 raised through higher taxes, £5 came from spending cuts. The problem is the room for spending cuts just isn't there - defence, welfare, NHS, education are sacrosanct and while I suppose we could cut capital and infrastructure spending that's as short sighted as it gets for future growth.

    Local Government has to keep the care of vulnerable adults and children going so the scope for "cutting the fat" is restricted.

    The other side has been to cut taxes - this of course usually favours the very wealthy and as Sri Lanka has shown, if you cut too much too far for too many you're storing up trouble.

    No one likes putting up taxes (yes, even the Left) but at least Sunak raises the first problem is inflation and getting that back under control. As for budget surpluses, Ken Clarke ran a budget surplus in the mid 90s - he was under huge pressure from a floundering Tory Party to cut taxes in the run up to 1997 as a way to improve the Party's electoral prospects. He refused.

    Sometimes what's best for the country isn't what's best for the Conservative Party.

    No one likes putting up taxes

    They do when its on groups they don't like.
    I can't speak for all non-Conservatives and clearly there are those who would advocate taxing "until the pips squeak" a la the 1970s but most sensible people don't support that.

    The argument is simply recognising the continual obsession with tax cutting on the Right and the ritual smearing of anyone who doesn't sign up wholeheartedly has to end.

    Sunak offers a degree of fiscal prudence (remember her) which Truss doesn't but the latter's supporters don't care about the medium to long term damage to the country's economic fortunes and public finances. It's all about keeping the Conservative Party in power and if that means buying votes by bribing the electorate with its own money so be it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,388
    boulay said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Liz Truss backs privately funded royal yacht

    "I do support the idea of promoting our trade around the world. What I would be seeking is to get investment into a yacht, looking to the private sector to assist with that to make it financially viable”

    Victory for @christopherhope

    Clever move from Truss, she needs to re establish her royalist credentials with Tory members after that dreadful LD conference speech from her youth
    Cue the daily mail cartoon of her dressed as Brittania (the figure rather than the yacht) with Rishi skewered on her trident.

    And then HMTQ dies and they start referring to her as Elizabeth the Third
    Well, she"s already Elizabeth the Turd, so given her an H works...
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Friend of mine has a theory that the aliens are a probably HOSTILE life form, and all the mystery is because governments have no idea how to break this terrifying news to humanity

    He's a very clever free thinker who sometimes gets things completely bang on out of nowhere - incredible insights - yet at the same time can entertain utterly mad ideas, at least for a while

    I hope this is one of his madder moments

    What are the aliens waiting for then?

    Are they hostile but polite, and would like to give humanity time to be properly briefed of its imminent demise?
    His idea is that they have been watching us for a while as we've slowly got more capable - mainly out of curiosity, but also just-in-case-we-do-something-dangerous - this is why their interest first really perked up when we mastered nukes

    Now that we have shown the capability to make and "release" terrible plagues AND we approach the AI singularity, they are getting less cautious and are preparing to wipe us out, as a biohazard

    lol. You are not trying out a plot for a new novel on us are you?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,012
    edited July 2022

    Leon said:

    Thanks for all the advice on fasting


    I'm going to give it a go, probably, just out of curiosity. Try everything twice has always been my motto, and it has served me well. You have to do *anything* twice in case you hate it the first time, but something was just awry, eg I hated heroin the first time and vommed everywhere, but the second time I loved it, and that cued me up for a twelve year smack addiction, so Yay

    Reckon I'm going to do a 5 day water fast. 7 days does sound insanely tough

    Also thanks to @foxy for that "800 calorie" link. A lot of sense in that article, especially this:

    "He also argues that a rapid weight loss programme, like the one they used in this trial, can be a more successful strategy than trying to lose it gradually. “Doing it slowly is torture. Contrary to the belief of many dieticians, people who lose weight more quickly, more emphatically, are more likely to keep it off long term”."

    This is totally true. And this is why fasting is a really good diet strategy (even if my fasts to date have just been 2-3 day jobs). When you fast the weight falls away quickly, which is encouraging, so you stick to the diet because you are getting immediate results, and you want more

    Slow calorie counting when you lose half a pound a week is a recipe for failure

    The 800 calorie thing, which I am right in think came from the brilliant prof at Newcastle who found you can often reverse diabetes by big weight loss, is tough but doable. I did it a couple of years ago for about two weeks. Lost quite a bit.

    BUT, it is most definitely not the same as a five day fast which is just bonkers in my book.

    I have no idea why you want to stop drinking water as well if you want to shift the "podge"?
    If you are going to do 800 calories a day, I would recommend Huel. Its 400 calories per serving and I have found it is strangely filling and dulls hunger (while also basically providing your full range of macros).
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,289

    Leon said:

    Thanks for all the advice on fasting


    I'm going to give it a go, probably, just out of curiosity. Try everything twice has always been my motto, and it has served me well. You have to do *anything* twice in case you hate it the first time, but something was just awry, eg I hated heroin the first time and vommed everywhere, but the second time I loved it, and that cued me up for a twelve year smack addiction, so Yay

    Reckon I'm going to do a 5 day water fast. 7 days does sound insanely tough

    Also thanks to @foxy for that "800 calorie" link. A lot of sense in that article, especially this:

    "He also argues that a rapid weight loss programme, like the one they used in this trial, can be a more successful strategy than trying to lose it gradually. “Doing it slowly is torture. Contrary to the belief of many dieticians, people who lose weight more quickly, more emphatically, are more likely to keep it off long term”."

    This is totally true. And this is why fasting is a really good diet strategy (even if my fasts to date have just been 2-3 day jobs). When you fast the weight falls away quickly, which is encouraging, so you stick to the diet because you are getting immediate results, and you want more

    Slow calorie counting when you lose half a pound a week is a recipe for failure

    The 800 calorie thing, which I am right in think came from the brilliant prof at Newcastle who found you can often reverse diabetes by big weight loss, is tough but doable. I did it a couple of years ago for about two weeks. Lost quite a bit.

    BUT, it is most definitely not the same as a five day fast which is just bonkers in my book.

    I have no idea why you want to stop drinking water as well if you want to shift the "podge"?
    I'm not. I'm doing a water fast, as I have said multiple times

    That means a fast where you drink water
  • The idea of Liz Truss as PM is pretty awful, and almost certainly guarantees a Labour GE victory, but it is still infinitely preferable to the Clown remaining in office. Perhaps the Tories need a GE bashing in order for them to move back toward the centre. Hey ho!

    With Starmer standing on a platform of Hard Brexit and no renationalisation, isn't it objectively true that the centre is close to where the Tories are now?
    Lol. I thought Barty Pinocchio Roberts would "like" that one. He is so off to the hard right that not only would Francois be regarded as a lefty, but so would Farage. I think even Farage might draw a breath before repeating some of the things "Barty" says from the safety of his keyboard
    I should hope so, Farage can be a bit of a lefty on economic matters. He believes in protectionism, rejecting free trade with America, Australia and the rest of the world, shielding our agricultural sector from competition and so on.

    I'd hope I'd be to the right on economic issues of such a nutter. Its on social and racial issues I take the liberal rather than authoritarian view and differ from him and his racist ilk.
    Yet despite your claim not to have any truck with his racist views as you see them, you still supported him. You supported a man you considered a racist. You also supported a man known to be a liar. Your moral compass is all over the place Barty. It is about as believable as your "journey" or your story about your "employee" lol. You live in la la land. No wonder you believe in Brexit
    I never supported him.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,899

    Leon said:

    Thanks for all the advice on fasting


    I'm going to give it a go, probably, just out of curiosity. Try everything twice has always been my motto, and it has served me well. You have to do *anything* twice in case you hate it the first time, but something was just awry, eg I hated heroin the first time and vommed everywhere, but the second time I loved it, and that cued me up for a twelve year smack addiction, so Yay

    Reckon I'm going to do a 5 day water fast. 7 days does sound insanely tough

    Also thanks to @foxy for that "800 calorie" link. A lot of sense in that article, especially this:

    "He also argues that a rapid weight loss programme, like the one they used in this trial, can be a more successful strategy than trying to lose it gradually. “Doing it slowly is torture. Contrary to the belief of many dieticians, people who lose weight more quickly, more emphatically, are more likely to keep it off long term”."

    This is totally true. And this is why fasting is a really good diet strategy (even if my fasts to date have just been 2-3 day jobs). When you fast the weight falls away quickly, which is encouraging, so you stick to the diet because you are getting immediate results, and you want more

    Slow calorie counting when you lose half a pound a week is a recipe for failure

    The 800 calorie thing, which I am right in think came from the brilliant prof at Newcastle who found you can often reverse diabetes by big weight loss, is tough but doable. I did it a couple of years ago for about two weeks. Lost quite a bit.

    BUT, it is most definitely not the same as a five day fast which is just bonkers in my book.

    I have no idea why you want to stop drinking water as well if you want to shift the "podge"?
    800 calories a day for 8 weeks. That's eight Soleros a day; just the ticket for this weather.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838

    The idea of Liz Truss as PM is pretty awful, and almost certainly guarantees a Labour GE victory, but it is still infinitely preferable to the Clown remaining in office. Perhaps the Tories need a GE bashing in order for them to move back toward the centre. Hey ho!

    With Starmer standing on a platform of Hard Brexit and no renationalisation, isn't it objectively true that the centre is close to where the Tories are now?
    Lol. I thought Barty Pinocchio Roberts would "like" that one. He is so off to the hard right that not only would Francois be regarded as a lefty, but so would Farage. I think even Farage might draw a breath before repeating some of the things "Barty" says from the safety of his keyboard
    I should hope so, Farage can be a bit of a lefty on economic matters. He believes in protectionism, rejecting free trade with America, Australia and the rest of the world, shielding our agricultural sector from competition and so on.

    I'd hope I'd be to the right on economic issues of such a nutter. Its on social and racial issues I take the liberal rather than authoritarian view and differ from him and his racist ilk.
    Yet despite your claim not to have any truck with his racist views as you see them, you still supported him. You supported a man you considered a racist. You also supported a man known to be a liar. Your moral compass is all over the place Barty. It is about as believable as your "journey" or your story about your "employee" lol. You live in la la land. No wonder you believe in Brexit
    I never supported him.
    TBF you didn't exist at the time.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,388

    Leon said:

    Thanks for all the advice on fasting


    I'm going to give it a go, probably, just out of curiosity. Try everything twice has always been my motto, and it has served me well. You have to do *anything* twice in case you hate it the first time, but something was just awry, eg I hated heroin the first time and vommed everywhere, but the second time I loved it, and that cued me up for a twelve year smack addiction, so Yay

    Reckon I'm going to do a 5 day water fast. 7 days does sound insanely tough

    Also thanks to @foxy for that "800 calorie" link. A lot of sense in that article, especially this:

    "He also argues that a rapid weight loss programme, like the one they used in this trial, can be a more successful strategy than trying to lose it gradually. “Doing it slowly is torture. Contrary to the belief of many dieticians, people who lose weight more quickly, more emphatically, are more likely to keep it off long term”."

    This is totally true. And this is why fasting is a really good diet strategy (even if my fasts to date have just been 2-3 day jobs). When you fast the weight falls away quickly, which is encouraging, so you stick to the diet because you are getting immediate results, and you want more

    Slow calorie counting when you lose half a pound a week is a recipe for failure

    The 800 calorie thing, which I am right in think came from the brilliant prof at Newcastle who found you can often reverse diabetes by big weight loss, is tough but doable. I did it a couple of years ago for about two weeks. Lost quite a bit.

    BUT, it is most definitely not the same as a five day fast which is just bonkers in my book.

    I have no idea why you want to stop drinking water as well if you want to shift the "podge"?
    800 calories a day for 8 weeks. That's eight Soleros a day; just the ticket for this weather.
    I assumed it was 800 calories a week.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    nico679 said:

    ITV just showed a group of young Tory members who thought Truss’s economic plan was a fantasy and she was wooden and wouldn’t win the next election but are still supporting her .

    If you're young and ambitious there's some logic in shaking up the existing power structures, and no better way of doing that then electing a loon and then losing an election. I'm not even joking.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,078
    HYUFD said:

    Looks like a repeat of the 2001 Tory leadership election at the moment.

    Sunak like Ken Clarke won most MPs but IDS won the membership vote 61% to 39%, similar to Truss' lead over Sunak with members with Yougov

    Well, not to intrude on private grief but there are several other major league problems facing the Conservatives in addition to the leadership.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,874
    edited July 2022
    Interesting German poll out this evening - they still have nearly three years until the next Bundestag election but big changes already from last autumn:

    CDU/CSU: 26.5% (+2.5)
    Greens: 22% (+7.2)
    SPD: 18.5% (-7.2)
    AfD: 12% (+1.7)
    FDP: 8% (-3.4)

    The cote share for the coalition parties is 48.5% (-3.4) from last autumn. For Scholz and the SPD it's an awful poll but for the Greens another excellent survey. It may well be Germany will have a Green Chancellor after the next Bundestag elections.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    MattW said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Liz Truss backs privately funded royal yacht

    "I do support the idea of promoting our trade around the world. What I would be seeking is to get investment into a yacht, looking to the private sector to assist with that to make it financially viable”

    Victory for @christopherhope

    I wonder whether the Monarch will have to finish off each speech with "sponsored by....." and be required to do product placement like a James Bond movie? King Charles will turn to the camera and say "Not your Royal Yacht Lizzy, but Your M&S Royal Yacht Lizzy."
    The late Duke of Edinburgh was a second world war sailor. Since his death, is there any great naval tradition in the Royal Family? Prince Andrew, perhaps, but he is sidelined. The younger Royals will not even remember the Britannia. This might be an idea whose time has passed.

    There again, what will happen to all the confiscated oligarchs' yachts?
    You're forgetting Prince Charles on the RN active list 71-77. Ended up as a Lieutenant commanding a Minesweeper.

    Prince Philip was 39 to 52, ending up as a Commander.

    Prince Andrew was 1979-2001, ending up as a Commander.


    Talking of RN Commanders I made a punt on Tom Ellis as next Bond at 66/1.

    Have been watching Lucifer as background light entertainment and although in first couple of series he was often channeling Julian Clarey in later ones he’s a lot darker, bulked up and has the English thing (I think he’s welsh like Dalton) done well.

    He can clearly do action scenes and has the dark looks of Dalton, Brosnan and Connery, and can do the suave charming thing too.

    It seems to me the producers go for a bond who is a bit reflective of the age so maybe his ability to do the campier/emotional side and action would work and he’s not wooden like some of the contenders like Henry Cavill.

    Anyway, thought I would share that earth shatteringly interesting info.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,899
    Rishi 15/8 with Boylesports.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,719
    Day One of the real contest and Truss seems to be taking all her economic advice from Minford.

    Starmer must be wetting himself tonight at the prospect of the mess coming before he wins a landslide in 2024.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Friend of mine has a theory that the aliens are a probably HOSTILE life form, and all the mystery is because governments have no idea how to break this terrifying news to humanity

    He's a very clever free thinker who sometimes gets things completely bang on out of nowhere - incredible insights - yet at the same time can entertain utterly mad ideas, at least for a while

    I hope this is one of his madder moments

    What are the aliens waiting for then?

    Are they hostile but polite, and would like to give humanity time to be properly briefed of its imminent demise?
    His idea is that they have been watching us for a while as we've slowly got more capable - mainly out of curiosity, but also just-in-case-we-do-something-dangerous - this is why their interest first really perked up when we mastered nukes

    Now that we have shown the capability to make and "release" terrible plagues AND we approach the AI singularity, they are getting less cautious and are preparing to wipe us out, as a biohazard

    Aliens wouldn't catch anything off you, or me for that matter. The biochemistry will be too different.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,899
    edited July 2022
    Spectator TV has gone up in the past hour.
    Truss leads Sunak & Trump's return
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=64C8BkGTztM
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,592
    Leon said:

    Thanks for all the advice on fasting


    I'm going to give it a go, probably, just out of curiosity. Try everything twice has always been my motto, and it has served me well. You have to do *anything* twice in case you hate it the first time, but something was just awry, eg I hated heroin the first time and vommed everywhere, but the second time I loved it, and that cued me up for a twelve year smack addiction, so Yay

    Reckon I'm going to do a 5 day water fast. 7 days does sound insanely tough

    Also thanks to @foxy for that "800 calorie" link. A lot of sense in that article, especially this:

    "He also argues that a rapid weight loss programme, like the one they used in this trial, can be a more successful strategy than trying to lose it gradually. “Doing it slowly is torture. Contrary to the belief of many dieticians, people who lose weight more quickly, more emphatically, are more likely to keep it off long term”."

    This is totally true. And this is why fasting is a really good diet strategy (even if my fasts to date have just been 2-3 day jobs). When you fast the weight falls away quickly, which is encouraging, so you stick to the diet because you are getting immediate results, and you want more

    Slow calorie counting when you lose half a pound a week is a recipe for failure

    I don't know if this has been covered, but if you are fasting, be very careful about doing things that require judgement calls, e.g. driving. If I go a couple of days with little food, I find my judgement goes a little askew.

    But a bigger question: why not just do more exercise and drink less alcohol?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Liz Truss backs privately funded royal yacht

    "I do support the idea of promoting our trade around the world. What I would be seeking is to get investment into a yacht, looking to the private sector to assist with that to make it financially viable”

    Victory for @christopherhope

    Damn stupid. The Navy can't afford the running costs, and more importantly the crew commitment.
    But if Truss is planning on resigning in a few months so Johnson can win another leadership election, as he appears to believe is how it works, he can still have the yacht he has yearned for.

    I note he was out campaigning again, so never say never again.
    What makes you think he thinks that? I can well believe he wants to come back. But why does he think he would win that particular Battle of Preston?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,606
    stodge said:

    stodge said:


    You mentioned "austerity" - I didn't.

    I will cut the current Government quite a bit of slack - the response to the pandemic required financial largesse as the economy basically stopped in the spring of 2020. It's no surprise the deficit and the debt increased sharply but the response was required at the time.

    The response traditionally to public spending problems from the Conservative side has been to cut - as Osborne had it in 2010, for every £1 raised through higher taxes, £5 came from spending cuts. The problem is the room for spending cuts just isn't there - defence, welfare, NHS, education are sacrosanct and while I suppose we could cut capital and infrastructure spending that's as short sighted as it gets for future growth.

    Local Government has to keep the care of vulnerable adults and children going so the scope for "cutting the fat" is restricted.

    The other side has been to cut taxes - this of course usually favours the very wealthy and as Sri Lanka has shown, if you cut too much too far for too many you're storing up trouble.

    No one likes putting up taxes (yes, even the Left) but at least Sunak raises the first problem is inflation and getting that back under control. As for budget surpluses, Ken Clarke ran a budget surplus in the mid 90s - he was under huge pressure from a floundering Tory Party to cut taxes in the run up to 1997 as a way to improve the Party's electoral prospects. He refused.

    Sometimes what's best for the country isn't what's best for the Conservative Party.

    No one likes putting up taxes

    They do when its on groups they don't like.
    I can't speak for all non-Conservatives and clearly there are those who would advocate taxing "until the pips squeak" a la the 1970s but most sensible people don't support that.

    The argument is simply recognising the continual obsession with tax cutting on the Right and the ritual smearing of anyone who doesn't sign up wholeheartedly has to end.

    Sunak offers a degree of fiscal prudence (remember her) which Truss doesn't but the latter's supporters don't care about the medium to long term damage to the country's economic fortunes and public finances. It's all about keeping the Conservative Party in power and if that means buying votes by bribing the electorate with its own money so be it.
    Not disagreeing with your conclusion but I suspect there's a general satisfaction when 'people like them' get taxed more.

    So non-smokers are happy when smoking taxes are increased or greenies when fuel taxes are increased or frugalists when consumption taxes are increased.

    There is always great public support for 'the rich' to be taxed more and oldies usually seem happy for NI to be increased.

    The thing I'm not sure of is whether people support higher taxes on 'people like them' so as to reduced taxes / increase spending on 'people like us' or whether they support taxes on 'people like them' because they want 'people like them' to lose out even if 'people like us' don't benefit.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,971
    edited July 2022
    pigeon said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Despite one poll, which one of our number seems convinced is evidence most people in the country love Liz Truss and are looking forward to the forthcoming economic illiteracy, I imagine the opposition parties are quite content with events.

    Truss will be desperate to get some form of "bounce" and we'll all end up paying for it with her absurd unfunded tax cuts. Clearly, there are those who think cutting taxes is all that matters - it isn't. June's borrowing figures were awful and not helped by rising inflation and interest rates - after all, inflation is too much money chasing too few goods so giving people more money to spend is a sure fire way of reducing inflation?

    The Lafferites and their fellow travellers are obviously hoping the populism will be enough - maybe but I prefer to wonder about increased defence spending, money for education, the NHS, pensions, local Government services and all those small adjuncts to a civilised life beyond simply paying less in tax.

    The Sunak approach is boring but sensible - the Truss approach is championed by those for whom the only nightmare paying more tax is a non-Conservative Government. The perpetuation of the Conservative Party in Government justifies anything and everything including the evisceration of the public finances.

    Simple question for those who think Laffer is nonsense, given we've supposedly had "austerity" for most of the past 12 years and given we've got tax rates at the highest they've been in three quarters of a century - if Laffer is a nonsense why don't we have a huge budget surplus?
    We don't have a surplus because while taxes are high spending is even higher. Spending is high because we have an elderly population who receive pensions and free healthcare. An elderly population also means relatively fewer taxpayers, and more tax per taxpayer.
    Cutting taxes without cutting spending will increase the deficit. Spending on things other than the elderly is already at low levels, unsustainably so in many cases. And spending on the elderly won't be cut because the Tories are the pensioner party. So Truss's voodoo economics just means higher debt and, most likely, even shittier public services than we have already.
    This is stage two of the Brexit sucker punch that I predicted on here some time ago. Stage one: Brexit, followed by economic stagnation. Stage two: the economy is stagnating, so we must slash the state and tear up regulation. No doubt there will be other stages of even more poverty and anger, even more populism, even more slash and burn. Repeat until we look like Alabama.
    So how would you suppose we should get spending down on the elderly population's pensions and healthcare?

    Personally I've said we need to tax the Grey vote more, and give fewer sweeties to the Grey voters which would cut the bills.

    While a side-effect and not the motivation, I'm also quite OK with letting Covid rip even if that means more Covid fatalities which would mean fewer Grey voters at the next election, fewer Grey pension liabilities and fewer Grey healthcare appointments in the future (the dead don't appear on waiting lists).

    But almost every left-wing voter here seems to want to not just moan about the Tories being the 'pensioner party' but want to object any time a Tory threatens the Triple Lock, and any time less than perfect protection against Covid is suggested.
    You've just identified the correct means to solve the problem of the gap between taxation and day-to-day Government spending, if you're committed not to slashing spending. Higher taxes.

    The Truss prospectus is bonkers: effectively, she wishes to cut taxes very considerably without having to make difficult and unpopular cuts to services like healthcare and payouts like pensions, by the simple expedient of borrowing to fund the gap (and keeping her fingers crossed that Laffer will kick in quickly and the proceeds of growth will plug said gap in a year or two.)

    Problems:

    1. She's inviting another substantial ramping up of inflation, firstly through releasing all that extra cash into what is (relative to most of Europe) already a comparatively low tax economy; and secondly through a crackpot borrow-to-spend policy which poses a serious risk of triggering a run on the pound.

    2. She's also burning the Tories' USP as the party of fiscal responsibility. If we can lower taxes, borrow as much as we like to directly fund public spending, and get away with it (spoiler: we can't) then what happens when Labour decides to enter a bidding war and says that it will borrow to give nurses a 15% pay hike? The Conservatives cannot win against Labour on such territory. Or, for that matter, what if Labour decides to say that Tory policy is unsustainable and reckless, and it would behave more responsibly - what is Truss's response to that? Or, for that matter, that of the substantial fraction of the Parliamentary party that will find itself in complete agreement with the Opposition over this?

    Most economists, and almost anyone out in the country at large who can be bothered to take long enough to think about this, can see that Truss is indulging in magical thinking, because daft elderly Tories want to hear that they can have spending on all the things and massive tax cuts at the same time.

    I suppose the best that can be said of this is that at least Truss has gone straight for more borrowing, rather than the alternative fantasy that we could find all the money if only we stamped on benefit scroungers hard enough. Which, given how many poor people are really struggling, how miserly social security is, and how high a proportion of claimants are in work, would really take the biscuit.
    1 - Low tax economy? Our taxes are at their highest rate in 74 years, how it that low tax?

    Tax cuts don't have to be inflationary, they can even be deflationary. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-62243400?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=62d9486ec0a04b7058299868&Tax cuts don't have to be inflationary - economist&2022-07-21T14:11:37.135Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:18d7cc62-9993-4a33-91b2-0ed5004ba82f&pinned_post_asset_id=62d9486ec0a04b7058299868&pinned_post_type=share

    2. If they do that, let them deal with it. If the Tories only exist for high taxes, what difference does it make?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,388

    Spectator TV has gone up in the past hour.
    Truss leads Sunak & Trump's return
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=64C8BkGTztM

    Er...really? I wouldn't have thought Sunak and Trump would have much in common, still less that Truss would lead them as they return.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,719
    What I said a couple of days ago on here...


    Dominic Cummings
    @Dominic2306
    ·
    Jul 20
    Betfair needs to open a market on another Tory leadership race before GE2024.
    The 💣 wd blow bigly
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,258

    FPT:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    ON topic, has anyone ever done a prolonged fast, like 5, 7 or 10 days?

    I'm so bored of the Lockdown Podge that I am getting brutal. I want it all gone by end August, and I'm going to kickstart the campaign with a fast


    I've fasted before but only 2-3 days (and even then I allowed wine). I'm now thinking: total water fast, 5 or 7 days. Go for it. Has anyone tried? Will I drop dead or go mad? The internet has varying advice (some day don't do it)

    Did a 44 hour total fast. No food or drink of any kind a couple of months ago.
    That was hard enough.
    Although the craving died off rather than intensified.
    But I wouldn't like to do much more. Did have minor trippy feelings second afternoon.
    Don't encourage him.

    Seriously, 44 hours without fluid sounds dangerous.
    I thought so too. Before I tried it. It wasn't hard at all tbh.
    I didn't say it was hard, I said it was dangerous.
    Also pointless. Water weight is easy to lose.

    44 hours with water only worth it
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,899
    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Thanks for all the advice on fasting


    I'm going to give it a go, probably, just out of curiosity. Try everything twice has always been my motto, and it has served me well. You have to do *anything* twice in case you hate it the first time, but something was just awry, eg I hated heroin the first time and vommed everywhere, but the second time I loved it, and that cued me up for a twelve year smack addiction, so Yay

    Reckon I'm going to do a 5 day water fast. 7 days does sound insanely tough

    Also thanks to @foxy for that "800 calorie" link. A lot of sense in that article, especially this:

    "He also argues that a rapid weight loss programme, like the one they used in this trial, can be a more successful strategy than trying to lose it gradually. “Doing it slowly is torture. Contrary to the belief of many dieticians, people who lose weight more quickly, more emphatically, are more likely to keep it off long term”."

    This is totally true. And this is why fasting is a really good diet strategy (even if my fasts to date have just been 2-3 day jobs). When you fast the weight falls away quickly, which is encouraging, so you stick to the diet because you are getting immediate results, and you want more

    Slow calorie counting when you lose half a pound a week is a recipe for failure

    The 800 calorie thing, which I am right in think came from the brilliant prof at Newcastle who found you can often reverse diabetes by big weight loss, is tough but doable. I did it a couple of years ago for about two weeks. Lost quite a bit.

    BUT, it is most definitely not the same as a five day fast which is just bonkers in my book.

    I have no idea why you want to stop drinking water as well if you want to shift the "podge"?
    800 calories a day for 8 weeks. That's eight Soleros a day; just the ticket for this weather.
    I assumed it was 800 calories a week.
    800 calories a week is not a diet; it's a war crime. Unless Leon does starve himself.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,289
    Brilliant clip of sailor/aviator Sir Francis Chichester describing a sighting of a Tic Tac-like UFO..... in 1931


    https://twitter.com/jamescfox/status/1549837230662877186?s=20&t=6KgF0jDlEqMkhmT5AV_0HQ
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310

    The idea of Liz Truss as PM is pretty awful, and almost certainly guarantees a Labour GE victory, but it is still infinitely preferable to the Clown remaining in office. Perhaps the Tories need a GE bashing in order for them to move back toward the centre. Hey ho!

    With Starmer standing on a platform of Hard Brexit and no renationalisation, isn't it objectively true that the centre is close to where the Tories are now?
    Lol. I thought Barty Pinocchio Roberts would "like" that one. He is so off to the hard right that not only would Francois be regarded as a lefty, but so would Farage. I think even Farage might draw a breath before repeating some of the things "Barty" says from the safety of his keyboard
    I should hope so, Farage can be a bit of a lefty on economic matters. He believes in protectionism, rejecting free trade with America, Australia and the rest of the world, shielding our agricultural sector from competition and so on.

    I'd hope I'd be to the right on economic issues of such a nutter. Its on social and racial issues I take the liberal rather than authoritarian view and differ from him and his racist ilk.
    Yet despite your claim not to have any truck with his racist views as you see them, you still supported him. You supported a man you considered a racist. You also supported a man known to be a liar. Your moral compass is all over the place Barty. It is about as believable as your "journey" or your story about your "employee" lol. You live in la la land. No wonder you believe in Brexit
    I never supported him.
    You voted for his party. You therefore supported him, and I suspect that in spite of your unbelievable protestations to the contrary, you probably love him dearly.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    Italian GE confirmed for September 25.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    What I said a couple of days ago on here...


    Dominic Cummings
    @Dominic2306
    ·
    Jul 20
    Betfair needs to open a market on another Tory leadership race before GE2024.
    The 💣 wd blow bigly

    No. Look how long it took them to move against Dead Dog

    Cummings is fucking pathetic, teenage tiktok type emoji rich attacks, absolutely zero trousers. Arse.
  • The idea of Liz Truss as PM is pretty awful, and almost certainly guarantees a Labour GE victory, but it is still infinitely preferable to the Clown remaining in office. Perhaps the Tories need a GE bashing in order for them to move back toward the centre. Hey ho!

    With Starmer standing on a platform of Hard Brexit and no renationalisation, isn't it objectively true that the centre is close to where the Tories are now?
    Lol. I thought Barty Pinocchio Roberts would "like" that one. He is so off to the hard right that not only would Francois be regarded as a lefty, but so would Farage. I think even Farage might draw a breath before repeating some of the things "Barty" says from the safety of his keyboard
    I should hope so, Farage can be a bit of a lefty on economic matters. He believes in protectionism, rejecting free trade with America, Australia and the rest of the world, shielding our agricultural sector from competition and so on.

    I'd hope I'd be to the right on economic issues of such a nutter. Its on social and racial issues I take the liberal rather than authoritarian view and differ from him and his racist ilk.
    Yet despite your claim not to have any truck with his racist views as you see them, you still supported him. You supported a man you considered a racist. You also supported a man known to be a liar. Your moral compass is all over the place Barty. It is about as believable as your "journey" or your story about your "employee" lol. You live in la la land. No wonder you believe in Brexit
    I never supported him.
    You voted for his party. You therefore supported him, and I suspect that in spite of your unbelievable protestations to the contrary, you probably love him dearly.
    You really are stupid.

    You still not understood this "protest vote" concept, have you?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,388

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Thanks for all the advice on fasting


    I'm going to give it a go, probably, just out of curiosity. Try everything twice has always been my motto, and it has served me well. You have to do *anything* twice in case you hate it the first time, but something was just awry, eg I hated heroin the first time and vommed everywhere, but the second time I loved it, and that cued me up for a twelve year smack addiction, so Yay

    Reckon I'm going to do a 5 day water fast. 7 days does sound insanely tough

    Also thanks to @foxy for that "800 calorie" link. A lot of sense in that article, especially this:

    "He also argues that a rapid weight loss programme, like the one they used in this trial, can be a more successful strategy than trying to lose it gradually. “Doing it slowly is torture. Contrary to the belief of many dieticians, people who lose weight more quickly, more emphatically, are more likely to keep it off long term”."

    This is totally true. And this is why fasting is a really good diet strategy (even if my fasts to date have just been 2-3 day jobs). When you fast the weight falls away quickly, which is encouraging, so you stick to the diet because you are getting immediate results, and you want more

    Slow calorie counting when you lose half a pound a week is a recipe for failure

    The 800 calorie thing, which I am right in think came from the brilliant prof at Newcastle who found you can often reverse diabetes by big weight loss, is tough but doable. I did it a couple of years ago for about two weeks. Lost quite a bit.

    BUT, it is most definitely not the same as a five day fast which is just bonkers in my book.

    I have no idea why you want to stop drinking water as well if you want to shift the "podge"?
    800 calories a day for 8 weeks. That's eight Soleros a day; just the ticket for this weather.
    I assumed it was 800 calories a week.
    800 calories a week is not a diet; it's a war crime. Unless Leon does starve himself.
    Well, it did seem excessive, but the discussion was about drinking only water.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    The idea of Liz Truss as PM is pretty awful, and almost certainly guarantees a Labour GE victory, but it is still infinitely preferable to the Clown remaining in office. Perhaps the Tories need a GE bashing in order for them to move back toward the centre. Hey ho!

    With Starmer standing on a platform of Hard Brexit and no renationalisation, isn't it objectively true that the centre is close to where the Tories are now?
    Lol. I thought Barty Pinocchio Roberts would "like" that one. He is so off to the hard right that not only would Francois be regarded as a lefty, but so would Farage. I think even Farage might draw a breath before repeating some of the things "Barty" says from the safety of his keyboard
    I should hope so, Farage can be a bit of a lefty on economic matters. He believes in protectionism, rejecting free trade with America, Australia and the rest of the world, shielding our agricultural sector from competition and so on.

    I'd hope I'd be to the right on economic issues of such a nutter. Its on social and racial issues I take the liberal rather than authoritarian view and differ from him and his racist ilk.
    Yet despite your claim not to have any truck with his racist views as you see them, you still supported him. You supported a man you considered a racist. You also supported a man known to be a liar. Your moral compass is all over the place Barty. It is about as believable as your "journey" or your story about your "employee" lol. You live in la la land. No wonder you believe in Brexit
    I never supported him.
    You voted for his party. You therefore supported him, and I suspect that in spite of your unbelievable protestations to the contrary, you probably love him dearly.
    Well he can hardly win then. Same as with declaring people support Trump even if they repeatedly say otherwise on the basis it seems like they must support him.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,388
    IshmaelZ said:

    What I said a couple of days ago on here...


    Dominic Cummings
    @Dominic2306
    ·
    Jul 20
    Betfair needs to open a market on another Tory leadership race before GE2024.
    The 💣 wd blow bigly

    No. Look how long it took them to move against Dead Dog

    Cummings is fucking pathetic, teenage tiktok type emoji rich attacks, absolutely zero trousers. Arse.
    Bit harsh.

    On teenagers, people with zero in the trouser department, and arses.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,258

    So the members wanted a Badenoch v Mordaunt contest.

    Would seem a bit rough to blame the members for electing Truss then.

    It would be an interesting counterfactual to run Conservative leadership elections (and Labour ones) the other way round. Let the members produce the shortlist and give MPs the final choice.
    Do it both ways

    20-30 MP nominations needed to run

    Members shortlist 3

    MPs decide
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited July 2022
    So hold on if you vote for a party led by somebody you're not endorsing the person who leads it by voting for them. Ok.

    Yet the same person says voting for a party that has anti-Semitism issues is endorsing anti-Semitism
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,635
    Leon said:

    It is fascinating to speculate what would happen if my friend is right

    If officials at the top of the USG or HMG or the CCP got the idea we were being visited by aliens of supernormal technical prowess, with hostile intentions to mankind, what the hell would they do? How would you inform the people? Quickly, slowly, in code? Would you even try? Would they themselves be able to comprehend something so outlandish AND awful?

    The obvious conspiracy theory explanation for all of this is that "they" want people to believe in alien life forms to justify the need for a global government.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    What I said a couple of days ago on here...


    Dominic Cummings
    @Dominic2306
    ·
    Jul 20
    Betfair needs to open a market on another Tory leadership race before GE2024.
    The 💣 wd blow bigly

    No. Look how long it took them to move against Dead Dog

    Cummings is fucking pathetic, teenage tiktok type emoji rich attacks, absolutely zero trousers. Arse.
    Bit harsh.

    On teenagers, people with zero in the trouser department, and arses.
    If he’s zero arsed trousers does that make him one of the chaps?

  • So hold on if you vote for a party led by somebody you're not endorsing the person who leads it by voting for them. Ok

    Yes, that's the entire point of a protest vote. Especially in a fake election as opposed to a GE.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited July 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    What I said a couple of days ago on here...


    Dominic Cummings
    @Dominic2306
    ·
    Jul 20
    Betfair needs to open a market on another Tory leadership race before GE2024.
    The 💣 wd blow bigly

    No. Look how long it took them to move against Dead Dog

    Cummings is fucking pathetic, teenage tiktok type emoji rich attacks, absolutely zero trousers. Arse.
    I’ve grown to enjoy Cummings’s ravings.

    He’s surely wrong on Truss, though. Even if she accidentally pointed Trident missiles at the home islands, the party (and the Daily Mail) would tell themselves that they must keep a-hold of Nurse.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited July 2022
    On topic:

    God have mercy on our souls.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,388
    boulay said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    What I said a couple of days ago on here...


    Dominic Cummings
    @Dominic2306
    ·
    Jul 20
    Betfair needs to open a market on another Tory leadership race before GE2024.
    The 💣 wd blow bigly

    No. Look how long it took them to move against Dead Dog

    Cummings is fucking pathetic, teenage tiktok type emoji rich attacks, absolutely zero trousers. Arse.
    Bit harsh.

    On teenagers, people with zero in the trouser department, and arses.
    If he’s zero arsed trousers does that make him one of the chaps?

    Not really, uselessness is in his jeans.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839

    nico679 said:

    ITV just showed a group of young Tory members who thought Truss’s economic plan was a fantasy and she was wooden and wouldn’t win the next election but are still supporting her .

    If you're young and ambitious there's some logic in shaking up the existing power structures, and no better way of doing that then electing a loon and then losing an election. I'm not even joking.
    If they're thinking like that, they're bloody mental. Having your party reduced to a rump and handing your opponents the opportunity to stack the electoral system against you is not the way to achieve your ambitions. Labour has all sort of tools it could use to lock the right out of power for a very long time, including lowering the voting age to 16, updating the boundaries again (with measures taken to identify the numbers of "missing" poor, urban voters, allowing the number of city seats to be increased,) and PR for the Commons and/or an elected Senate to replace the Lords. The reputational damage of crashing and burning the economy and leaving Labour to pick up the pieces would also be likely to prove very long lasting.

    Your ambitious young Tories could easily find themselves coming up for pensionable age before they get the chance to govern again.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Liz Truss backs privately funded royal yacht

    "I do support the idea of promoting our trade around the world. What I would be seeking is to get investment into a yacht, looking to the private sector to assist with that to make it financially viable”

    Victory for @christopherhope

    Damn stupid. The Navy can't afford the running costs, and more importantly the crew commitment.
    But if Truss is planning on resigning in a few months so Johnson can win another leadership election, as he appears to believe is how it works, he can still have the yacht he has yearned for.

    I note he was out campaigning again, so never say never again.
    What makes you think he thinks that? I can well believe he wants to come back. But why does he think he would win that particular Battle of Preston?
    It's far fetched enough for him to believe it could work. Dom seems to think Johnson has something outlandish in mind.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    On topic:

    God have mercy on our souls.

    Do we deserve mercy?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    800 calories is incredibly hard.

    I think 1200 or even 1400 is fine so long as you try to eschew sugar and carbs.

    I recently found some “zero carb” bread which I thought I’d try for a laugh. Made entirely from eggs and almonds. It’s actually “OK”. If I was dieting it would be v useful.

    Sorry if this is very old news and I’m the last one to discover this product.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,606
    Leon said:

    Brilliant clip of sailor/aviator Sir Francis Chichester describing a sighting of a Tic Tac-like UFO..... in 1931


    https://twitter.com/jamescfox/status/1549837230662877186?s=20&t=6KgF0jDlEqMkhmT5AV_0HQ

    Well if they've been here for 90+ years they don't seem to have done much.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    ydoethur said:

    boulay said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    What I said a couple of days ago on here...


    Dominic Cummings
    @Dominic2306
    ·
    Jul 20
    Betfair needs to open a market on another Tory leadership race before GE2024.
    The 💣 wd blow bigly

    No. Look how long it took them to move against Dead Dog

    Cummings is fucking pathetic, teenage tiktok type emoji rich attacks, absolutely zero trousers. Arse.
    Bit harsh.

    On teenagers, people with zero in the trouser department, and arses.
    If he’s zero arsed trousers does that make him one of the chaps?

    Not really, uselessness is in his jeans.

    Then maybe it’s time for him to just zip it.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    IshmaelZ said:

    What I said a couple of days ago on here...


    Dominic Cummings
    @Dominic2306
    ·
    Jul 20
    Betfair needs to open a market on another Tory leadership race before GE2024.
    The 💣 wd blow bigly

    No. Look how long it took them to move against Dead Dog

    Cummings is fucking pathetic, teenage tiktok type emoji rich attacks, absolutely zero trousers. Arse.
    I’ve grown to enjoy Cummings’s ravings.

    He’s surely wrong on Truss, though. Even if she accidentally pointed Trident missiles at the home islands, the party (and the Daily Mail) would tell themselves that they must keep a-hold of Nurse.
    Whatever one thinks about Cummings, his rants and tweets are hugely entertaining. And indeed sometimes very perceptive, although most of the time he's as mad as a march hare.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,632
    Bring back Boris, all is forgiven.

    (Not really, but blimey, the only optimistic thing I can see is that Liz Truss could suprise on the upside).
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557

    So the members wanted a Badenoch v Mordaunt contest.

    Would seem a bit rough to blame the members for electing Truss then.

    +1
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,361

    🚨New Westminster Voting Intention🚨

    📈13pt Labour lead

    🌳Con 30 (+2)
    🌹Lab 43 (=)
    🔶LD 11 (-1)
    🎗️SNP 4 (=)
    🌍Gre 4 (=)
    ⬜️Other 8 (=)

    1,980 UK adults, 15-17 Jul

    (chg from 8-10 Jul)

    BJO please explain

    The Tories up in a few polls recently. Maybe the TV debates were good for them after all?

    Being prepared to ask each other difficult questions could be regarded as a positive compared to normal politics.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    How’s she going to cut inflation by seeing the £ plunge through the floor? (Even more than it has already)
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited July 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    So the members wanted a Badenoch v Mordaunt contest.

    Would seem a bit rough to blame the members for electing Truss then.

    +1
    I suspect there’s a bit of anger out there.

    It’s all very well saying that the party needed to plump for an experienced candidate, but Rishi and Truss are both deeply flawed.

    Trying to put yourself in the shoes of a Werthers-Original-addled moonbat, who indeed, do you choose?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486

    Bring back Boris, all is forgiven.

    (Not really, but blimey, the only optimistic thing I can see is that Liz Truss could suprise on the upside).

    Just to help you visualise - this is Liz surprised.


  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    🚨New Westminster Voting Intention🚨

    📈13pt Labour lead

    🌳Con 30 (+2)
    🌹Lab 43 (=)
    🔶LD 11 (-1)
    🎗️SNP 4 (=)
    🌍Gre 4 (=)
    ⬜️Other 8 (=)

    1,980 UK adults, 15-17 Jul

    (chg from 8-10 Jul)

    BJO please explain

    The Tories up in a few polls recently. Maybe the TV debates were good for them after all?

    Being prepared to ask each other difficult questions could be regarded as a positive compared to normal politics.
    Boris resignation relief “bounce”.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,719
    What a case this is. Tears to my eyes anyway. Time to change the law.

    Man, 73, who cut wife’s throat in suicide pact cleared of murder
    https://www.beestondentalpractice.co.uk/latest-news/


    "Outside court, Mansfield took the highly unusual step of thanking the Greater Manchester police officers who arrested him and ultimately charged him with murder. “They have been so lovely and kind,” he said. “They are nice people and they treated me like a human being.” "
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,267
    Cicero said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Liz Truss backs privately funded royal yacht

    "I do support the idea of promoting our trade around the world. What I would be seeking is to get investment into a yacht, looking to the private sector to assist with that to make it financially viable”

    Victory for @christopherhope

    I wonder whether the Monarch will have to finish off each speech with "sponsored by....." and be required to do product placement like a James Bond movie? King Charles will turn to the camera and say "Not your Royal Yacht Lizzy, but Your M&S Royal Yacht Lizzy."
    The late Duke of Edinburgh was a second world war sailor. Since his death, is there any great naval tradition in the Royal Family? Prince Andrew, perhaps, but he is sidelined. The younger Royals will not even remember the Britannia. This might be an idea whose time has passed.

    There again, what will happen to all the confiscated oligarchs' yachts?
    The Prince of Wales served for five or six years in the Navy and ended up commanding a Mine Hunter, if I recall.
    He flew helicopters, IIRC, off HMS Hermes?
  • The Italian election will be much more important than the Tory contest.

    In the latest polls, Fratelli d'Italia + Lega + Forza Italia + ItalExit would be around 47-48%, which I guess would be enoughfor a majority. Could lead to some explosive battles with Brussels if the right wins.

    Somewhat surprising that 5 Star didn't support Draghi when they look set to be pummeled.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    boulay said:

    Bring back Boris, all is forgiven.

    (Not really, but blimey, the only optimistic thing I can see is that Liz Truss could suprise on the upside).

    Just to help you visualise - this is Liz surprised.


    Looks like the final scene of Twin Peaks (the original series).
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,719
    boulay said:

    Bring back Boris, all is forgiven.

    (Not really, but blimey, the only optimistic thing I can see is that Liz Truss could suprise on the upside).

    Just to help you visualise - this is Liz surprised.


    Leadership election by next summer is my prediction it is going to be such a disaster as she tries to prove she is the most radical, reforming PM since the blessed Margaret. Chaos everywhere.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,388
    boulay said:

    ydoethur said:

    boulay said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    What I said a couple of days ago on here...


    Dominic Cummings
    @Dominic2306
    ·
    Jul 20
    Betfair needs to open a market on another Tory leadership race before GE2024.
    The 💣 wd blow bigly

    No. Look how long it took them to move against Dead Dog

    Cummings is fucking pathetic, teenage tiktok type emoji rich attacks, absolutely zero trousers. Arse.
    Bit harsh.

    On teenagers, people with zero in the trouser department, and arses.
    If he’s zero arsed trousers does that make him one of the chaps?

    Not really, uselessness is in his jeans.

    Then maybe it’s time for him to just zip it.
    Good advice, but he'll continue to spout rubbish he makes up on the fly.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,388
    boulay said:

    Bring back Boris, all is forgiven.

    (Not really, but blimey, the only optimistic thing I can see is that Liz Truss could suprise on the upside).

    Just to help you visualise - this is Liz surprised.


    Really? Are you sure that it's not some other emotion?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Cicero said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Liz Truss backs privately funded royal yacht

    "I do support the idea of promoting our trade around the world. What I would be seeking is to get investment into a yacht, looking to the private sector to assist with that to make it financially viable”

    Victory for @christopherhope

    I wonder whether the Monarch will have to finish off each speech with "sponsored by....." and be required to do product placement like a James Bond movie? King Charles will turn to the camera and say "Not your Royal Yacht Lizzy, but Your M&S Royal Yacht Lizzy."
    The late Duke of Edinburgh was a second world war sailor. Since his death, is there any great naval tradition in the Royal Family? Prince Andrew, perhaps, but he is sidelined. The younger Royals will not even remember the Britannia. This might be an idea whose time has passed.

    There again, what will happen to all the confiscated oligarchs' yachts?
    The Prince of Wales served for five or six years in the Navy and ended up commanding a Mine Hunter, if I recall.
    He flew helicopters, IIRC, off HMS Hermes?
    Contemporary joke

    Doctor, doctor, help, I've got Hermes

    - surely you mean herpes?

    - No, I'm a carrier.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    The Italian election will be much more important than the Tory contest.

    In the latest polls, Fratelli d'Italia + Lega + Forza Italia + ItalExit would be around 47-48%, which I guess would be enoughfor a majority. Could lead to some explosive battles with Brussels if the right wins.

    Somewhat surprising that 5 Star didn't support Draghi when they look set to be pummeled.

    Depends what battles you mean.

    My (primitive) read on Italian politics is that an needless churn of populist parties (from left and right) win power running against the technocrats and then spend their time in power realising that no way in hell do the electorate actually want to lose the Euro because it means the destruction of wealth and savings.

    Like the UK, it’s stuck in a gerontocratic-populist death loop.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,388
    IshmaelZ said:

    Cicero said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Liz Truss backs privately funded royal yacht

    "I do support the idea of promoting our trade around the world. What I would be seeking is to get investment into a yacht, looking to the private sector to assist with that to make it financially viable”

    Victory for @christopherhope

    I wonder whether the Monarch will have to finish off each speech with "sponsored by....." and be required to do product placement like a James Bond movie? King Charles will turn to the camera and say "Not your Royal Yacht Lizzy, but Your M&S Royal Yacht Lizzy."
    The late Duke of Edinburgh was a second world war sailor. Since his death, is there any great naval tradition in the Royal Family? Prince Andrew, perhaps, but he is sidelined. The younger Royals will not even remember the Britannia. This might be an idea whose time has passed.

    There again, what will happen to all the confiscated oligarchs' yachts?
    The Prince of Wales served for five or six years in the Navy and ended up commanding a Mine Hunter, if I recall.
    He flew helicopters, IIRC, off HMS Hermes?
    Contemporary joke

    Doctor, doctor, help, I've got Hermes

    - surely you mean herpes?

    - No, I'm a carrier.
    That joke is impressive, but does not really show Enterprise.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    ydoethur said:

    boulay said:

    Bring back Boris, all is forgiven.

    (Not really, but blimey, the only optimistic thing I can see is that Liz Truss could suprise on the upside).

    Just to help you visualise - this is Liz surprised.


    Really? Are you sure that it's not some other emotion?
    I'd like a panned out shot so we can see what she is sitting on
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,922

    The Italian election will be much more important than the Tory contest.

    In the latest polls, Fratelli d'Italia + Lega + Forza Italia + ItalExit would be around 47-48%, which I guess would be enoughfor a majority. Could lead to some explosive battles with Brussels if the right wins.

    Somewhat surprising that 5 Star didn't support Draghi when they look set to be pummeled.

    Would also be the first victory for right of centre parties in a G7 nation general election since Boris' in 2019
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486

    So the members wanted a Badenoch v Mordaunt contest.

    Would seem a bit rough to blame the members for electing Truss then.

    It would be an interesting counterfactual to run Conservative leadership elections (and Labour ones) the other way round. Let the members produce the shortlist and give MPs the final choice.
    Do it both ways

    20-30 MP nominations needed to run

    Members shortlist 3

    MPs decide
    Or some version of:

    MPs put themselves forward with a minimum threshold of MP supporters.

    The membership votes on the top 3.

    Those top three then have a weighting which are added to their MP votes - for example 1 extra vote per percentage of membership votes.

    On gets knocked out at that point and then the last two votes by MOs.

    Members have influence but not final say.

    MPs can judge accurately the feeling of the party members and hopefully it’s reflected in the end result better so you reduce the risk of someone much less popular with their actual colleagues having to secure their support and someone who is wildly unpopular with the membership having to rely on their support.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,388
    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    boulay said:

    Bring back Boris, all is forgiven.

    (Not really, but blimey, the only optimistic thing I can see is that Liz Truss could suprise on the upside).

    Just to help you visualise - this is Liz surprised.


    Really? Are you sure that it's not some other emotion?
    I'd like a panned out shot so we can see what she is sitting on
    I really, really wouldn't.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Jesse Lingard signs for Forest
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,154

    So the members wanted a Badenoch v Mordaunt contest.

    Would seem a bit rough to blame the members for electing Truss then.

    It would be an interesting counterfactual to run Conservative leadership elections (and Labour ones) the other way round. Let the members produce the shortlist and give MPs the final choice.
    Do it both ways

    20-30 MP nominations needed to run

    Members shortlist 3

    MPs decide
    I like it - it allows for plenty of betting opportunities.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,635

    The Italian election will be much more important than the Tory contest.

    In the latest polls, Fratelli d'Italia + Lega + Forza Italia + ItalExit would be around 47-48%, which I guess would be enoughfor a majority. Could lead to some explosive battles with Brussels if the right wins.

    Somewhat surprising that 5 Star didn't support Draghi when they look set to be pummeled.

    Depends what battles you mean.

    My (primitive) read on Italian politics is that an needless churn of populist parties (from left and right) win power running against the technocrats and then spend their time in power realising that no way in hell do the electorate actually want to lose the Euro because it means the destruction of wealth and savings.

    Like the UK, it’s stuck in a gerontocratic-populist death loop.
    Liz Truss could be the PM you've been waiting for.

    https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/975822789759389698

    Every generation wants their own version of #freedom- freedom to shape their own lives. This is about #choice #destiny

    This generation are #Uber-riding #Airbnb-ing #Deliveroo-eating #freedomfighters
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    boulay said:

    Bring back Boris, all is forgiven.

    (Not really, but blimey, the only optimistic thing I can see is that Liz Truss could suprise on the upside).

    Just to help you visualise - this is Liz surprised.


    Really? Are you sure that it's not some other emotion?
    I'd like a panned out shot so we can see what she is sitting on

    She’s sitting on her cut



    To taxes
  • So hold on if you vote for a party led by somebody you're not endorsing the person who leads it by voting for them. Ok.

    Yet the same person says voting for a party that has anti-Semitism issues is endorsing anti-Semitism

    I've just seen your second paragraph you editted in and request you withdraw that slur.

    I NEVER said that everyone who voted Labour is endorsing anti Semitism. Quite the opposite. I have said anyone prepared to serve in Corbyn's Shadow Cabinet was at least willing to turn a blind eye to anti Semitism but I have NEVER said that anyone who voted Labour were. That would be an offensive slur against millions of people and I wouldn't be so ignorant and you lying that I have is offensive.

    There were a vast number of Labour MPs who objected to Corbyn, objected to anti Semitism and made that vocally clear and resigned to the back benches. People like Stella Creasy were prepared to not just vote Labour but hold the Labour whip and were still willing to call out anti Semitism even while voting Labour. I may not agree with her politics much, but I really respect her and MPs like her let alone voters like her.

    So you may not want to throw away such stones. People vote for all sort of reasons. I respect people's freedom to choose what is important to them, and why they consider it important.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,267
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Liz Truss backs privately funded royal yacht

    "I do support the idea of promoting our trade around the world. What I would be seeking is to get investment into a yacht, looking to the private sector to assist with that to make it financially viable”

    Victory for @christopherhope

    I wonder whether the Monarch will have to finish off each speech with "sponsored by....." and be required to do product placement like a James Bond movie? King Charles will turn to the camera and say "Not your Royal Yacht Lizzy, but Your M&S Royal Yacht Lizzy."
    The late Duke of Edinburgh was a second world war sailor. Since his death, is there any great naval tradition in the Royal Family? Prince Andrew, perhaps, but he is sidelined. The younger Royals will not even remember the Britannia. This might be an idea whose time has passed.

    There again, what will happen to all the confiscated oligarchs' yachts?
    Great idea, but a little blingy for Royal tastes I would hope.
    Also very, very tactless at a time of austerity - whether an Ersatz Britannia (as the Germans called planned replacements for vessels) or an oligarch's yacht. The maintenance and crewing and running are an issue, whomsoever paid for the vessel and its kit-out.
    Just reflecting on two things about the Britannia.

    (a) the living conditions for the crew were miserable - certainly by later standards in the RN.
    (b) It was always justified on the grounds that it would serve as a hospital ship in wartime. As it was commissioned after the Korean War ended, this function would be relevant to the Falklands War, but it was not used for that. I've read that this was because it used a different kind of bunker or fuel oil from the RN but other ships using the same oil were used in the Falklands so I don't know why not.
    I would read her comment as kicking the ball into touch - that a Truss government won't fund the yacht, but if the private sector wants to sponsor it....

    Anyway, my design for the new Royal Yacht

    image
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    HYUFD said:

    The Italian election will be much more important than the Tory contest.

    In the latest polls, Fratelli d'Italia + Lega + Forza Italia + ItalExit would be around 47-48%, which I guess would be enoughfor a majority. Could lead to some explosive battles with Brussels if the right wins.

    Somewhat surprising that 5 Star didn't support Draghi when they look set to be pummeled.

    Would also be the first victory for right of centre parties in a G7 nation general election since Boris' in 2019
    Be careful what you wish for.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,459

    The Italian election will be much more important than the Tory contest.

    In the latest polls, Fratelli d'Italia + Lega + Forza Italia + ItalExit would be around 47-48%, which I guess would be enoughfor a majority. Could lead to some explosive battles with Brussels if the right wins.

    Somewhat surprising that 5 Star didn't support Draghi when they look set to be pummeled.

    Depends what battles you mean.

    My (primitive) read on Italian politics is that an needless churn of populist parties (from left and right) win power running against the technocrats and then spend their time in power realising that no way in hell do the electorate actually want to lose the Euro because it means the destruction of wealth and savings.

    Like the UK, it’s stuck in a gerontocratic-populist death loop.
    Liz Truss could be the PM you've been waiting for.

    https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/975822789759389698

    Every generation wants their own version of #freedom- freedom to shape their own lives. This is about #choice #destiny

    This generation are #Uber-riding #Airbnb-ing #Deliveroo-eating #freedomfighters
    What does that even mean?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839

    pigeon said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Despite one poll, which one of our number seems convinced is evidence most people in the country love Liz Truss and are looking forward to the forthcoming economic illiteracy, I imagine the opposition parties are quite content with events.

    Truss will be desperate to get some form of "bounce" and we'll all end up paying for it with her absurd unfunded tax cuts. Clearly, there are those who think cutting taxes is all that matters - it isn't. June's borrowing figures were awful and not helped by rising inflation and interest rates - after all, inflation is too much money chasing too few goods so giving people more money to spend is a sure fire way of reducing inflation?

    The Lafferites and their fellow travellers are obviously hoping the populism will be enough - maybe but I prefer to wonder about increased defence spending, money for education, the NHS, pensions, local Government services and all those small adjuncts to a civilised life beyond simply paying less in tax.

    The Sunak approach is boring but sensible - the Truss approach is championed by those for whom the only nightmare paying more tax is a non-Conservative Government. The perpetuation of the Conservative Party in Government justifies anything and everything including the evisceration of the public finances.

    Simple question for those who think Laffer is nonsense, given we've supposedly had "austerity" for most of the past 12 years and given we've got tax rates at the highest they've been in three quarters of a century - if Laffer is a nonsense why don't we have a huge budget surplus?
    We don't have a surplus because while taxes are high spending is even higher. Spending is high because we have an elderly population who receive pensions and free healthcare. An elderly population also means relatively fewer taxpayers, and more tax per taxpayer.
    Cutting taxes without cutting spending will increase the deficit. Spending on things other than the elderly is already at low levels, unsustainably so in many cases. And spending on the elderly won't be cut because the Tories are the pensioner party. So Truss's voodoo economics just means higher debt and, most likely, even shittier public services than we have already.
    This is stage two of the Brexit sucker punch that I predicted on here some time ago. Stage one: Brexit, followed by economic stagnation. Stage two: the economy is stagnating, so we must slash the state and tear up regulation. No doubt there will be other stages of even more poverty and anger, even more populism, even more slash and burn. Repeat until we look like Alabama.
    So how would you suppose we should get spending down on the elderly population's pensions and healthcare?

    Personally I've said we need to tax the Grey vote more, and give fewer sweeties to the Grey voters which would cut the bills.

    While a side-effect and not the motivation, I'm also quite OK with letting Covid rip even if that means more Covid fatalities which would mean fewer Grey voters at the next election, fewer Grey pension liabilities and fewer Grey healthcare appointments in the future (the dead don't appear on waiting lists).

    But almost every left-wing voter here seems to want to not just moan about the Tories being the 'pensioner party' but want to object any time a Tory threatens the Triple Lock, and any time less than perfect protection against Covid is suggested.
    You've just identified the correct means to solve the problem of the gap between taxation and day-to-day Government spending, if you're committed not to slashing spending. Higher taxes.

    The Truss prospectus is bonkers: effectively, she wishes to cut taxes very considerably without having to make difficult and unpopular cuts to services like healthcare and payouts like pensions, by the simple expedient of borrowing to fund the gap (and keeping her fingers crossed that Laffer will kick in quickly and the proceeds of growth will plug said gap in a year or two.)

    Problems:

    1. She's inviting another substantial ramping up of inflation, firstly through releasing all that extra cash into what is (relative to most of Europe) already a comparatively low tax economy; and secondly through a crackpot borrow-to-spend policy which poses a serious risk of triggering a run on the pound.

    2. She's also burning the Tories' USP as the party of fiscal responsibility. If we can lower taxes, borrow as much as we like to directly fund public spending, and get away with it (spoiler: we can't) then what happens when Labour decides to enter a bidding war and says that it will borrow to give nurses a 15% pay hike? The Conservatives cannot win against Labour on such territory. Or, for that matter, what if Labour decides to say that Tory policy is unsustainable and reckless, and it would behave more responsibly - what is Truss's response to that? Or, for that matter, that of the substantial fraction of the Parliamentary party that will find itself in complete agreement with the Opposition over this?

    Most economists, and almost anyone out in the country at large who can be bothered to take long enough to think about this, can see that Truss is indulging in magical thinking, because daft elderly Tories want to hear that they can have spending on all the things and massive tax cuts at the same time.

    I suppose the best that can be said of this is that at least Truss has gone straight for more borrowing, rather than the alternative fantasy that we could find all the money if only we stamped on benefit scroungers hard enough. Which, given how many poor people are really struggling, how miserly social security is, and how high a proportion of claimants are in work, would really take the biscuit.
    1 - Low tax economy? Our taxes are at their highest rate in 74 years, how it that low tax?

    Tax cuts don't have to be inflationary, they can even be deflationary. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-62243400?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=62d9486ec0a04b7058299868&Tax cuts don't have to be inflationary - economist&2022-07-21T14:11:37.135Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:18d7cc62-9993-4a33-91b2-0ed5004ba82f&pinned_post_asset_id=62d9486ec0a04b7058299868&pinned_post_type=share

    2. If they do that, let them deal with it. If the Tories only exist for high taxes, what difference does it make?
    Relative to most of the rest of Europe, this is a low tax economy. The reason why taxation as a share of national wealth is higher than it has been for many decades is basically down to the country being full of ill, disabled and above all very old people who would not have survived seven decades ago. Life expectancy is about fifteen years greater than it was under the Attlee Ministry. This has obvious consequences.

    What we expect from the Conservatives is fiscal responsibility. Whether this entails following a Scandinavian model (with a reasonably pro-business environment but high levels of personal taxation and a generous welfare state,) or a low tax, small state model, people expect the sums to add up. A fantasy world of slashing taxes and hiking borrowing so that spending can stay where it is (or, indeed, increase: that promised hike in the defence budget has to come from somewhere) is neither of those things.

    I would say it looks more like Corbynism, except that John McDonnell's equivalent fantasy exercise in money printing was at least designed to go towards investment spending. Borrowing a l'outrance to cover routine expenditure (e.g. the public sector wage bill) is the sort of thing that happens in broke third world countries that have run out of credit with the IMF, and it will have wholly predictable and very nasty consequences for us all.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    🚨New Westminster Voting Intention🚨

    📈13pt Labour lead

    🌳Con 30 (+2)
    🌹Lab 43 (=)
    🔶LD 11 (-1)
    🎗️SNP 4 (=)
    🌍Gre 4 (=)
    ⬜️Other 8 (=)

    1,980 UK adults, 15-17 Jul

    (chg from 8-10 Jul)

    BJO please explain

    The Tories up in a few polls recently. Maybe the TV debates were good for them after all?

    Being prepared to ask each other difficult questions could be regarded as a positive compared to normal politics.
    Peak PB
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,652

    800 calories is incredibly hard.

    I think 1200 or even 1400 is fine so long as you try to eschew sugar and carbs.

    I recently found some “zero carb” bread which I thought I’d try for a laugh. Made entirely from eggs and almonds. It’s actually “OK”. If I was dieting it would be v useful.

    Sorry if this is very old news and I’m the last one to discover this product.

    It is tough, but it does work. I have chatted to Prof Taylor about his fascinating work on the subject, summarised here:

    https://www.ncl.ac.uk/magres/research/diabetes/reversal/#publicinformation

    His ideas started when he was looking at people having weight loss surgery, and what happened to the diabetes afterwards. The thing that intrigued him is that the diabetes got better within days, before the weight went. His MRI studies showed that the key was that severe calorie restriction lost fat initially in liver and pancreas, which greatly increased effectiveness of endogenous insulin. Effectively resetting the metabolic thermostat at a lower weight.

    800 calories and 8 weeks is the right ball park, but not absolute, but it really works. This isn't a fad, but rather the work of a UK professor of diabetes and now backed by Diabetes UK.

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    The Italian election will be much more important than the Tory contest.

    In the latest polls, Fratelli d'Italia + Lega + Forza Italia + ItalExit would be around 47-48%, which I guess would be enoughfor a majority. Could lead to some explosive battles with Brussels if the right wins.

    Somewhat surprising that 5 Star didn't support Draghi when they look set to be pummeled.

    Depends what battles you mean.

    My (primitive) read on Italian politics is that an needless churn of populist parties (from left and right) win power running against the technocrats and then spend their time in power realising that no way in hell do the electorate actually want to lose the Euro because it means the destruction of wealth and savings.

    Like the UK, it’s stuck in a gerontocratic-populist death loop.
    Liz Truss could be the PM you've been waiting for.

    https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/975822789759389698

    Every generation wants their own version of #freedom- freedom to shape their own lives. This is about #choice #destiny

    This generation are #Uber-riding #Airbnb-ing #Deliveroo-eating #freedomfighters
    What does that even mean?
    Fuck, how can that not be a parody account?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Trump is a comic genius.


  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,154
    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    boulay said:

    Bring back Boris, all is forgiven.

    (Not really, but blimey, the only optimistic thing I can see is that Liz Truss could suprise on the upside).

    Just to help you visualise - this is Liz surprised.


    Really? Are you sure that it's not some other emotion?
    I'd like a panned out shot so we can see what she is sitting on
    Surely, who?
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    Jesse Lingard signs for Forest

    That’s a decent piece of business fro them.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,154

    Jesse Lingard signs for Forest

    He had been rumoured to be heading to MLS.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,267
    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Cicero said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Liz Truss backs privately funded royal yacht

    "I do support the idea of promoting our trade around the world. What I would be seeking is to get investment into a yacht, looking to the private sector to assist with that to make it financially viable”

    Victory for @christopherhope

    I wonder whether the Monarch will have to finish off each speech with "sponsored by....." and be required to do product placement like a James Bond movie? King Charles will turn to the camera and say "Not your Royal Yacht Lizzy, but Your M&S Royal Yacht Lizzy."
    The late Duke of Edinburgh was a second world war sailor. Since his death, is there any great naval tradition in the Royal Family? Prince Andrew, perhaps, but he is sidelined. The younger Royals will not even remember the Britannia. This might be an idea whose time has passed.

    There again, what will happen to all the confiscated oligarchs' yachts?
    The Prince of Wales served for five or six years in the Navy and ended up commanding a Mine Hunter, if I recall.
    He flew helicopters, IIRC, off HMS Hermes?
    Contemporary joke

    Doctor, doctor, help, I've got Hermes

    - surely you mean herpes?

    - No, I'm a carrier.
    That joke is impressive, but does not really show Enterprise.
    Your wit is sometimes Excellent.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Anti-Truss MPs who voted for Sunak have got to take a long hard look at themselves.

    They clearly had a bad case of Centerist-Pundit Brain when they settled for Sunak.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    boulay said:

    Bring back Boris, all is forgiven.

    (Not really, but blimey, the only optimistic thing I can see is that Liz Truss could suprise on the upside).

    Just to help you visualise - this is Liz surprised.


    Really? Are you sure that it's not some other emotion?
    I'd like a panned out shot so we can see what she is sitting on
    I really, really wouldn't.
    She is either taking the field, or enjoying a quasi climax. One or the other.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Alistair said:

    Anti-Truss MPs who voted for Sunak have got to take a long hard look at themselves.

    They clearly had a bad case of Centerist-Pundit Brain when they settled for Sunak.

    Also known as Hilary Clinton Syndrome and Andy-Burnham-itis.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Friend of mine has a theory that the aliens are a probably HOSTILE life form, and all the mystery is because governments have no idea how to break this terrifying news to humanity

    He's a very clever free thinker who sometimes gets things completely bang on out of nowhere - incredible insights - yet at the same time can entertain utterly mad ideas, at least for a while

    I hope this is one of his madder moments

    What are the aliens waiting for then?

    Are they hostile but polite, and would like to give humanity time to be properly briefed of its imminent demise?
    His idea is that they have been watching us for a while as we've slowly got more capable - mainly out of curiosity, but also just-in-case-we-do-something-dangerous - this is why their interest first really perked up when we mastered nukes

    Now that we have shown the capability to make and "release" terrible plagues AND we approach the AI singularity, they are getting less cautious and are preparing to wipe us out, as a biohazard

    Eric Weinstein made an interesting point. We normally assume we know almost nothing about the fundamental laws of the universe and that any other civilisation would be “millions of years” ahead of us. But what if we are actually very close to “solving” physics and that once we break out of the theoretical cage of general relativity, it all neatly falls into place? Conceivably we could be at theoretical parity within some hundreds of years and technological parity not too long after.

    In this scenario, an artificial nuclear reaction indicates the building blocks are in place to understand and apply quantum mechanics, which in turn presages computers and eventually AI. The window in time between the first nuclear event and technological parity with the alien civilisation might be measured in only hundreds of years rather than thousands of millions, given the exponentially accelerating rate of discovery.

    Which is where the three body problem / dark forest comes in. An advanced civilisation might bump off budding competitors but it might not feel great about doing so. So instead it first studies, records and catalogues that species / civilisation, the way the Khmer Rouge meticulously documented and photographed their victims, before brutally despatching them. Gulp.

    I don’t believe any of that as it happens. If these craft are ET then I think it overwhelmingly likely they are Attenborough and we the creatures of the Serengeti. The tic tacs seem to me to be like Von Neumann probes, self replicating drones that expand from star system to star system. They could even be the echo of a long dead civilisation. Harder to explain would be if reports of so called “Triangle UFOs” get corroborated by public data leaks. Supposedly a photo and video has done the rounds in Congress which is a slam dunk, with the object having different characteristics to the tic tac, namely much larger. But that’s still hearsay. These wouldn’t obviously be unmanned Von Neumann probes. And would add credence to the idea we’ve been watched (and possibly interfered with) for a very long time indeed.

    I also doubt the US govt knows much at all about what this is really about. I’m minded to take at face value that they don’t have a clue. It is intriguing that this week Congress has inserted a “Roswell clause” into legislation, such that the Executive is bound to release all info about advanced tech retrievals dating back to “01 Jan 1947” and whether held by the state or transferred to the private sector. Because either there’s something in that, or else as Leon says, Congress has been captured by fringe conspiracists.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,719
    Foxy said:

    800 calories is incredibly hard.

    I think 1200 or even 1400 is fine so long as you try to eschew sugar and carbs.

    I recently found some “zero carb” bread which I thought I’d try for a laugh. Made entirely from eggs and almonds. It’s actually “OK”. If I was dieting it would be v useful.

    Sorry if this is very old news and I’m the last one to discover this product.

    It is tough, but it does work. I have chatted to Prof Taylor about his fascinating work on the subject, summarised here:

    https://www.ncl.ac.uk/magres/research/diabetes/reversal/#publicinformation

    His ideas started when he was looking at people having weight loss surgery, and what happened to the diabetes afterwards. The thing that intrigued him is that the diabetes got better within days, before the weight went. His MRI studies showed that the key was that severe calorie restriction lost fat initially in liver and pancreas, which greatly increased effectiveness of endogenous insulin. Effectively resetting the metabolic thermostat at a lower weight.

    800 calories and 8 weeks is the right ball park, but not absolute, but it really works. This isn't a fad, but rather the work of a UK professor of diabetes and now backed by Diabetes UK.

    Roy Taylor deserves the Nobel prize for medicine in my opinion. His work is such an astonishing and brilliant discovery that also could save hundreds of thousands if not millions of lives (and save medical services like NHS billions) but it also was a classic medical detective case where he went with the evidence he saw and against his colleagues who doubted him greatly.

    His book, detailing the story is brilliant.

    He would go to conferences and show his thoughts and they all thought he was barking mad.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557

    Leon said:

    Thanks for all the advice on fasting


    I'm going to give it a go, probably, just out of curiosity. Try everything twice has always been my motto, and it has served me well. You have to do *anything* twice in case you hate it the first time, but something was just awry, eg I hated heroin the first time and vommed everywhere, but the second time I loved it, and that cued me up for a twelve year smack addiction, so Yay

    Reckon I'm going to do a 5 day water fast. 7 days does sound insanely tough

    Also thanks to @foxy for that "800 calorie" link. A lot of sense in that article, especially this:

    "He also argues that a rapid weight loss programme, like the one they used in this trial, can be a more successful strategy than trying to lose it gradually. “Doing it slowly is torture. Contrary to the belief of many dieticians, people who lose weight more quickly, more emphatically, are more likely to keep it off long term”."

    This is totally true. And this is why fasting is a really good diet strategy (even if my fasts to date have just been 2-3 day jobs). When you fast the weight falls away quickly, which is encouraging, so you stick to the diet because you are getting immediate results, and you want more

    Slow calorie counting when you lose half a pound a week is a recipe for failure

    I don't know if this has been covered, but if you are fasting, be very careful about doing things that require judgement calls, e.g. driving. If I go a couple of days with little food, I find my judgement goes a little askew.

    But a bigger question: why not just do more exercise and drink less alcohol?
    This is one of the best ways to lose weight.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    rcs1000 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    boulay said:

    Bring back Boris, all is forgiven.

    (Not really, but blimey, the only optimistic thing I can see is that Liz Truss could suprise on the upside).

    Just to help you visualise - this is Liz surprised.


    Really? Are you sure that it's not some other emotion?
    I'd like a panned out shot so we can see what she is sitting on
    Surely, who?
    That is an utterly terrible thing to say about one of the candidates for the highest office in the land.

    WHOM she is sitting on.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705

    Trump is a comic genius.


    When they described his recovery as Herculean, maybe they were referring to him cleaning the shit out of the Augean Stables.
This discussion has been closed.