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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A solid win for NO but what about that “vow” by Cameron, Cl

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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Monty
    Oi you gazzumping burger, I have that one copyrighted below!
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    MontyMonty Posts: 346
    Smarmeron said:

    @Monty
    Oi you gazzumping burger, I have that one copyrighted below!

    Ha! Sorry, great minds and all that.
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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    edited September 2014
    'Cough' - What about Alex Salmond's position as First Minister right now?! The Westminster Coalition Government and the main Opposition has now a GE manifesto and campaign to prepare for, and one I would suggest is going to allow for more time to prepare for such a far reaching debate on the issue than tonight.
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    alexalex Posts: 244
    Analyst on BBC Scotland - "voting patterns suggest the more "British" voters feel, the more likely they are to reject Independence".

    No sh*t, Sherlock.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,079
    Pong said:

    Do we think it'll be over/under 45?

    I'm guessing 44.5%

    Well Yes is at 45.7, and Edinburgh has yet to declare.
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    ItajaiItajai Posts: 721
    fitalass said:

    FPT. Peter from Putney nails it for the next GE. As I keep saying, its the economy stupid, just keep looking at those economic competence leads that Cameron and Osborne enjoy over Ed Miliband and Ed Balls.

    "If the final result is indeed 43% : 57%, representing a No win by 14% (perhaps even more), you'd have to say that the pollsters didn't exactly cover themselves with glory.

    The reason ...... for my money they hopelessly underestimated the Shy Nos, just as they will underestimate the Shy Tories next May - remember you read it here first!"

    If it's the economy stoopid! how does that look in May 2015? But the who constitution things might trump all that...
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    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    Yes! great news to wake up to. Thanks to DavidL and the other campaigners for keeping our country together. Great not to have this nagging worry. Now we need to sort things out for the English devolution.
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    GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191
    Nicloa suggesting that ALL of the people who voted No, did so because they believed more powers were coming.
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @JosiasJessop
    What happens when it is easier to create "imaginary wealth" than it is to create the "real thing"?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,440
    Clearly a No, will tune back for final declaration, night!

    September 18th 2014 Scotland's date with unity!
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    alex said:

    Analyst on BBC Scotland - "voting patterns suggest the more "British" voters feel, the more likely they are to reject Independence".

    No sh*t, Sherlock.

    Yes, I chuckled at that. Is the bear a catholic? Does the Pope shit in the woods?
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    alexalex Posts: 244
    Gadfly said:

    Nicloa suggesting that ALL of the people who voted No, did so because they believed more powers were coming.

    But the SNP were very clear in the referendum that the No campaign were lying about that ;)
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    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Nicola Sturgeon uses the phrase "job-creating power". Hopefully that one's on the way out
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    ItajaiItajai Posts: 721
    will we ever see malcolmg again? all over but the crying.

    glad it's a no, but was a close run thing.
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    MontyMonty Posts: 346
    Are we saying that Scotland has voted for Nope and Change?
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,342
    BBC website has somehow removed two results from running totals.

    So be careful - BBC website totals are wrong.
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    Its been so bloody that it would have been entertaining either way. More entertaining with a yes, but the no campaign buggered it up so comprehensively that we now get to watch them fight over their fag packet proposals.

    Personally I'd like a Federal UK - and always have felt that its the ultimate solution for the bitty mess that is the UK - but don't think it will go that far. Actually I don't think it will go anywhere - at least not in this parliament. So it will come down to Labour post 2015 delivering a fix, and that will be as divisive as always!
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,348
    Itajai said:

    will we ever see malcolmg again? all over but the crying.

    glad it's a no, but was a close run thing.

    Yes you fucking tosser you will
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,456
    edited September 2014
    Itajai said:

    will we ever see malcolmg again? all over but the crying.

    glad it's a no, but was a close run thing.

    I think Malc's made of sterner stuff than that. He'll be back, even with licked wounds.

    Edit: rather comic timing there!
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @iainmartin1: Please, broadcasters: ask senior Nats why they lost (and they lost). Don't allow them to move goalposts.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2014
    People who felt they had nothing to lose voted Yes. That explains the vote in Glasgow and surrounding deprived areas in North Lanarkshire and West Dunbartonshire.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @bbckamal: Sterling reacts to No vote in Asia trading: hits 1.65 against the dollar, up 0.6%, and 1.27 against the euro, also up 0.6%, a two year high.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 13s
    Whether you are for YES or NO the 86% turnout is something to celebrate
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    GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191
    malcolmg said:

    Itajai said:

    will we ever see malcolmg again? all over but the crying.

    glad it's a no, but was a close run thing.

    Yes you fucking tosser you will
    Good to see you enjoying events Malcolm ;-)

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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    malcolmg said:


    Yes you fucking tosser you will

    Enjoy your holiday, Malcolm.
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    MontyMonty Posts: 346
    Glad to have you in the tent pissing out malcolmg. Or pissing everywhere. But at least you are in the tent.
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    Smarmeron said:

    @JosiasJessop
    What happens when it is easier to create "imaginary wealth" than it is to create the "real thing"?

    How does that question help the good people of Merhyr Tydfil? How has it ever helped them?
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    malcolmg said:

    Itajai said:

    will we ever see malcolmg again? all over but the crying.

    glad it's a no, but was a close run thing.

    Yes you fucking tosser you will
    Don't be a bad loser. The people have resolved to maintain the Union; we should all accept that and move on.
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    Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,176
    Beautiful news. Better than I dared hope.

    What a relief!
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @malcolmg
    Have a good holiday Malcolm, and we will welcome you back when you return.....Ya turnip...;-)
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,348
    Monty said:

    Glad to have you in the tent pissing out malcolmg. Or pissing everywhere. But at least you are in the tent.

    Cannot believe that the tossers chose not to be a country. I hope nobody ever gives me any crap again about brave Scottish or anything similar. I am ashamed to be Scottish. I look forward to hearing them whinge in future when they get shafted.
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    Smarmeron said:

    @JosiasJessop
    Tell me, who exactly has "won" in monetary terms, and who has lost?

    I'm not sure that's the right question. Obviously, people who choose to take risks with capital and time, and work hard will win in monetary terms; there is no way the state could compete.
    People can't choose to risk capital they don't have.
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    86% turnout? are you sure mike?
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    Where is Edinburgh? Helloooo?
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    Its been so bloody that it would have been entertaining either way. More entertaining with a yes, but the no campaign buggered it up so comprehensively that we now get to watch them fight over their fag packet proposals.

    Personally I'd like a Federal UK - and always have felt that its the ultimate solution for the bitty mess that is the UK - but don't think it will go that far. Actually I don't think it will go anywhere - at least not in this parliament. So it will come down to Labour post 2015 delivering a fix, and that will be as divisive as always!

    I was against devolution in '99 as I saw it as the first steps on the road to the inevitable breakup of the union. Without serious thought to the imbalance of powers and the result that Westminster would become increasingly focused on English/Welsh issues (and rightly so really). This situation would just get worse with more powers transferred, unless devolution also applied to England.

    Full federalism, in my opinion, is the only solution that can save the union in the long term, but this would require devolving England into regions as a federal solution cannot work where one party is so substantially larger...


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    MontyMonty Posts: 346
    malcolmg said:

    Monty said:

    Glad to have you in the tent pissing out malcolmg. Or pissing everywhere. But at least you are in the tent.

    Cannot believe that the tossers chose not to be a country. I hope nobody ever gives me any crap again about brave Scottish or anything similar. I am ashamed to be Scottish. I look forward to hearing them whinge in future when they get shafted.
    You don't mean that.
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    ItajaiItajai Posts: 721
    malcolmg said:

    Itajai said:

    will we ever see malcolmg again? all over but the crying.

    glad it's a no, but was a close run thing.

    Yes you fucking tosser you will
    Oh jeeeeez!!! I was never too either way, but then I see merchant bankers like yourself who'll be bitter till the next coming and then..
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,348
    Scott_P said:

    malcolmg said:


    Yes you fucking tosser you will

    Enjoy your holiday, Malcolm.
    Thanks Scott
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    dr_spyn said:

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 13s
    Whether you are for YES or NO the 86% turnout is something to celebrate

    A festival of democracy! Even if it had been a more decisive yes or no, you can't beat the turnout. How do we bottle that level of fire and apply it to the rest of the UK?

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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,348
    SeanT said:

    malcolmg said:

    Itajai said:

    will we ever see malcolmg again? all over but the crying.

    glad it's a no, but was a close run thing.

    Yes you fucking tosser you will
    Shall I be the first to say? =

    turnip.
    You are being too nice. As I now count myself English , those Scottish losers can F Off
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    ItajaiItajai Posts: 721
    Itajai said:

    malcolmg said:

    Itajai said:

    will we ever see malcolmg again? all over but the crying.

    glad it's a no, but was a close run thing.

    Yes you fucking tosser you will
    Oh jeeeeez!!! I was never too either way, but then I see merchant bankers like yourself who'll be bitter till the next coming and then..
    And pls cry and cry and cry.....
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @malcolmg
    "I am ashamed to be Scottish. I look forward to hearing them whinge in future when they get shafted." Either way",
    I am not ashamed to be Scottish, we voted, and we decided.
    Can you think of a better way?
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    Not even close. Cleggasm redux
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    The establishment parties better not try and hide behind a General Election mandate to stitch up and English devolution offer. Whatever cobbled together stitch up they come up with must be offered under a separate referendum with the option of an English Parliament!
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,348
    SeanT said:

    malcolmg said:

    Itajai said:

    will we ever see malcolmg again? all over but the crying.

    glad it's a no, but was a close run thing.

    Yes you fucking tosser you will
    Oh, I forgot to add,

    YOU FUCKING LOST YOU RIDICULOUS, FROTHING, PUNGENT OLD FANNY-FEATURES.

    You will also be DEAD by the time this issue is revisited, if ever that happens, which I doubt.

    HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

    turnip.
    It will never happen they are a bunch of cowards, bit better riposte this time though.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCJamesCook: This sums up the mood at the "Yes" campaign's gathering in Edinburgh: #indyref http://t.co/7IUgWUzXdx
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    Oliver_PB said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @JosiasJessop
    Tell me, who exactly has "won" in monetary terms, and who has lost?

    I'm not sure that's the right question. Obviously, people who choose to take risks with capital and time, and work hard will win in monetary terms; there is no way the state could compete.
    People can't choose to risk capital they don't have.
    There's still plenty of hard, physical capital flying about. Even better, it's becoming easier to risk time instead of capital. It's easier to learn: the OU did a brilliant job, and the Internet now allows people to learn all sorts of things. The excellent Kahn Academy is one example.

    https://www.khanacademy.org/
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    MontyMonty Posts: 346
    Devolved government can only be good for the UK. And can we have a new voting system too please? FPTP has a lot to answer for regarding voter disillusionment and division. Not fit for a multi party system.
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    ItajaiItajai Posts: 721
    I had my doubts then I thought it'd be close but then...

    Glad it worked out...did not think i'd care so much..
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    Devo Macs - you want Salmond, chips and sauce?
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    malcolmg said:

    Monty said:

    Glad to have you in the tent pissing out malcolmg. Or pissing everywhere. But at least you are in the tent.

    Cannot believe that the tossers chose not to be a country. I hope nobody ever gives me any crap again about brave Scottish or anything similar. I am ashamed to be Scottish. I look forward to hearing them whinge in future when they get shafted.
    Scotland is a country. Always has been and always will be.

    I understand you're upset and don't be too hard on yourself, or your countrymen. The case wasn't made, but Scotland and the UK will still be very different in the future.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,079
    malcolmg said:

    Scott_P said:

    malcolmg said:


    Yes you fucking tosser you will

    Enjoy your holiday, Malcolm.
    Thanks Scott
    Drink lots, and forget about things here for a bit!
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    ItajaiItajai Posts: 721
    In a normal country wee Eck would resign. He learnt from Labour so don"t stay up.
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    Nite all.

    Been another great nite on PB. Glad the Union has survived, but sympathise with disappointments of Nationalists.

    Hope it goes well from here but too tired to think any more about it.

    Sleep well everybody.
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @malcolmg
    The" enemy" are all craven cowards? I would argue they aren't......this belief has saved me many a time.
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    FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    Congratulations to Alex Salmond. Without a single viable policy, voodoo economics and a plethora of inaccurate statistics he managed to get 45% of Scots to vote YES. Not sure what that says about the Scottish people though...
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    JamesMJamesM Posts: 221
    What a momentous night for Scotland and the whole UK. I am starting to flag a bit having been up all night, but I am determined to see all the results declared and the PM and FM speak, before going to bed.

    Delighted it looks like No will win and 55/45 is around my prediction too. We now need to work to rebuild our United Kingdom for the 21st century.
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    Monty said:

    Glad to have you in the tent pissing out malcolmg. Or pissing everywhere. But at least you are in the tent.

    Let me correct your typo. At least he's pissing...

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    MontyMonty Posts: 346
    Isabel Hardmen is lovely.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    Helen Tzarimas ‏@Tzarimas 24s
    RT @britainelects ·
    IMPORTANT:
    First Minister Alex Salmond is to make a statement at 06:20.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2014
    Next focus is on Clacton and Heywood & Middleton where voters are likely to say No to handouts to Scotland at English expense.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    Alex Salmond @AlexSalmond · 6m
    Well done to Glasgow, our commonwealth city, and to the people of Scotland for such a incredible support
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    manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    edited September 2014
    Monty said:

    Devolved government can only be good for the UK. And can we have a new voting system too please? FPTP has a lot to answer for regarding voter disillusionment and division. Not fit for a multi party system.

    You're kidding. The establishment parties are not going hand over power to UKIP. Anyway who really wants centralising vehicles which will increase the size of constituencies. What's needed is decentralisation and devolution not more centralisation.

    We had a referendum you lost. Live with it.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,348
    Smarmeron said:

    @malcolmg
    "I am ashamed to be Scottish. I look forward to hearing them whinge in future when they get shafted." Either way",
    I am not ashamed to be Scottish, we voted, and we decided.
    Can you think of a better way?

    Cowards voting for a pig in a poke is enough for me , hope the tossers suffer and deservedly so. No more whinging from all those wankers in labour, planned poverty and deprivation was their choice.
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    dr_spyn said:

    Helen Tzarimas ‏@Tzarimas 24s
    RT @britainelects ·
    IMPORTANT:
    First Minister Alex Salmond is to make a statement at 06:20.

    Very important he strikes a tone of unity and reconciliation.
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    GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191

    Where is Edinburgh? Helloooo?

    I think it's in a place called Scotland, wherever that is.
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    dr_spyn said:

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 13s
    Whether you are for YES or NO the 86% turnout is something to celebrate

    A festival of democracy! Even if it had been a more decisive yes or no, you can't beat the turnout. How do we bottle that level of fire and apply it to the rest of the UK?

    By increasing (substantially) the amount of religious prejudice in England? Look at the results by area... this was a Protestant NO (What, after all, unites Brown, Cameron and Her Majesty?) and a Catholic YES.

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    Rumours on Twitter that Edinburgh is 60/40 to NO.
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    MontyMonty Posts: 346

    Monty said:

    Devolved government can only be good for the UK. And can we have a new voting system too please? FPTP has a lot to answer for regarding voter disillusionment and division. Not fit for a multi party system.

    You're kidding. The establishment parties are not going hand over power to UKIP. Anyway who really wants centralising vehicles which will increase the size of constituencies. What's needed is decentralisation and devolution not more centralisation.

    We had a referendum you lost. Live with it.
    LOL. If you had read any of my posts you would see that I am passionately FOR the Union. Just not for the status quo. The two are not incompatible.
    You turnip.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,348

    Monty said:

    Glad to have you in the tent pissing out malcolmg. Or pissing everywhere. But at least you are in the tent.

    Let me correct your typo. At least he's pissing...

    stone cold sober and not happy
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    Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,176
    After Gordon ' s speech of his life (for which as a unionist I am much indebted), what's the betting Cameron makes the speech of his life in an hour?

    He needs to now, the focus is all on him now. This is when he shines.
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    Listening to R5L, 'Yes' appear to be suffering a delusion that they haven't been trounced.

    Which really sums up their campaign, and why they lost. A concious decision to ignore reality and state the world is the way they want it to be, rather than the way it is.

    The Scottish people have chosen reality over dreams.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,348
    Gadfly said:

    Where is Edinburgh? Helloooo?

    I think it's in a place called Scotland, wherever that is.
    Northern England I think you mean.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    The big news of the night. Eddie Izzard breaks his duck...
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    MontyMonty Posts: 346
    I wish Edinburgh would pull their finger out.
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @malcolmg
    You will have to try harder, I would have accepted the vote either way..but then again, I am a socialist (in a Pragmatic Communist way)
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    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    dr_spyn said:

    Helen Tzarimas ‏@Tzarimas 24s
    RT @britainelects ·
    IMPORTANT:
    First Minister Alex Salmond is to make a statement at 06:20.

    Very important he strikes a tone of unity and reconciliation.

    I doubt Salmond 'delayed yeses' will manage that.
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    GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191
    malcolmg said:

    Gadfly said:

    Where is Edinburgh? Helloooo?

    I think it's in a place called Scotland, wherever that is.
    Northern England I think you mean.
    *like* ;-)
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2014
    I predicted 4 councils would vote Yes, and it looks like that will happen.

    On the other hand, they aren't the councils I was expecting except for Dundee.
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    MontyMonty Posts: 346

    Listening to R5L, 'Yes' appear to be suffering a delusion that they haven't been trounced.

    Which really sums up their campaign, and why they lost. A concious decision to ignore reality and state the world is the way they want it to be, rather than the way it is.

    The Scottish people have chosen reality over dreams.

    Couldn't agree more. But Westminster must embrace change now.
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    Very impressive performance by Salmond and the Yes campaign coming as close as they did, easy to overlook thanks to everybody having different reasons to pretend it was even closer. Also a good performance by the betting markets, which stayed solid and sensible and didn't get caught up in the media narrative.

    On topic, can somebody post or link to what the LibLabServatives have promised specifically?
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,348
    Smarmeron said:

    @malcolmg
    You will have to try harder, I would have accepted the vote either way..but then again, I am a socialist (in a Pragmatic Communist way)

    Obviously not Labour then
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    manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    edited September 2014
    Monty said:

    Monty said:

    Devolved government can only be good for the UK. And can we have a new voting system too please? FPTP has a lot to answer for regarding voter disillusionment and division. Not fit for a multi party system.

    You're kidding. The establishment parties are not going hand over power to UKIP. Anyway who really wants centralising vehicles which will increase the size of constituencies. What's needed is decentralisation and devolution not more centralisation.

    We had a referendum you lost. Live with it.
    LOL. If you had read any of my posts you would see that I am passionately FOR the Union. Just not for the status quo. The two are not incompatible.
    You turnip.
    LOL I was talking about the AVPlus referendum (you were talking about voting system change). You Cabbage!
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @TogetherDarling: An extraordinary night. Humbled by the level of support and the efforts of our volunteers. Will give speech in Glasgow shortly. #indyref
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,348

    Very impressive performance by Salmond and the Yes campaign coming as close as they did, easy to overlook thanks to everybody having different reasons to pretend it was even closer. Also a good performance by the betting markets, which stayed solid and sensible and didn't get caught up in the media narrative.

    On topic, can somebody post or link to what the LibLabServatives have promised specifically?

    Feck all
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    dr_spyn said:

    Helen Tzarimas ‏@Tzarimas 24s
    RT @britainelects ·
    IMPORTANT:
    First Minister Alex Salmond is to make a statement at 06:20.

    Very important he strikes a tone of unity and reconciliation.
    Perhaps we might see something else beginning "re" and ending "ation".
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291

    Politico Daily ‏@Politico_Daily 1m
    Breaking: Nicola Sturgeon concedes defeat #indyref #ScotlandDecides
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    Monty said:

    Listening to R5L, 'Yes' appear to be suffering a delusion that they haven't been trounced.

    Which really sums up their campaign, and why they lost. A concious decision to ignore reality and state the world is the way they want it to be, rather than the way it is.

    The Scottish people have chosen reality over dreams.

    Couldn't agree more. But Westminster must embrace change now.
    Yep. Which might make the 'vow', widely derided just a few hours ago, a master-stroke.

    Perhaps. With a following wind. ;-)
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    MontyMonty Posts: 346

    Monty said:

    Monty said:

    Devolved government can only be good for the UK. And can we have a new voting system too please? FPTP has a lot to answer for regarding voter disillusionment and division. Not fit for a multi party system.

    You're kidding. The establishment parties are not going hand over power to UKIP. Anyway who really wants centralising vehicles which will increase the size of constituencies. What's needed is decentralisation and devolution not more centralisation.

    We had a referendum you lost. Live with it.
    LOL. If you had read any of my posts you would see that I am passionately FOR the Union. Just not for the status quo. The two are not incompatible.
    You turnip.
    LOL I was talking about the AVPlus referendum. You Cabbage!
    Ha! AV was a bad idea. PR is where it's at!
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Damn, I had West Dumbartonshire as top yes% @ 33/1

    Came in second highest, just behind dundee. Another good value loser from pong...
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    The pollsters will be soul-searching in the coming days.
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    Aberdeenshire: it's a big no.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    Aberdeenshire 87.2% turnout Y 71337 N 108660.
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    Aberdeenshire No
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    What the turnout shows is that Scotland cares about its constitutional settlement. I'm clear the rest of us do too, and the current arrangement is a partial halfway fudge of a deal. We can't undo Scottish devolution, or a Northern Ireland going it alone. So we need to complete the deal and go federal.

    I'm not convinced that we need English parliaments in the regions - we have one law. As for the imbalance between the size of England vs the rest you can say the same about American states. Regional parliaments and no English parliament is the end of England. Because I can promise you that if a substantial number of people wanted independence from London, its the same up north as well. Let's not indulge that.
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    Edinburgh: massive no.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    Edinburgh Y 123927 N 194, 638.
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    Edinburgh No by nearly 70,000 votes
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @malcolmg
    No, not Labour, but the principles it was founded on ? Yes. We either live as a society, or die as a society. I do not have a choice, only a vote for hope.
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    Huge NO in Edinburgh. Close to 62%.
This discussion has been closed.