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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A solid win for NO but what about that “vow” by Cameron, Cl

SystemSystem Posts: 12,552
edited September 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A solid win for NO but what about that “vow” by Cameron, Clegg and Miliband?

@MSmithsonPB A shy No in Lenzie East Dinbartonshire pic.twitter.com/kA20O1uvPJ

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,265
    But backtrack they will.
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    Cameron's Epitaph......
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,079
    edited September 2014
    Glasgow: big yes.

    Edit: but not enough.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,845
    edited September 2014
    Big win for Yes in Glasgow - but nowhere near enough to make a difference to the overall result and some strong No regions still to come
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,311
    Glasgow 754% turnout - 194,779 Y, 169347 N,
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    Not such a huge win in Glasgow. Not enough.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,815
    edited September 2014
    Glasgae YES about 53.4%
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,578
    Now, time to claw back the No lead...
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    edited September 2014
    Glasgow yes by only 25,000 or so. Nowhere near big enough victory.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,827
    53/47 in Glasgow
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Lamont possibly lost even her constituency
  • ItajaiItajai Posts: 721
    Is it enough?
  • alexalex Posts: 244
    Is there some indication in past history that it is sometimes Labour areas that are overall stronger yes relatively than some SNP areas? An indication of the extent to which the SNP hoovered up Tory voters post 1992.
  • MontyMonty Posts: 346
    Glasgow much closer than Yes needed. Brilliant news. The last hope of Yes has gone.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,845
    Sky calls it for No.

    Took them long enough!
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    I suppose the supporter in the pic is Murphy's wife...or not?
  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    Borders 67% loyal.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    No should win all the remaining areas.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,808
    BBC Scotland doing Scottish Borders result off tape.

    Makes coverage look better.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,845
    Thrasher predicting 55-45 result overall
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    FTP
    @JosiasJessop
    If people feel that no matter how hard they work, they are going nowhere, you economy is furuked.
    Best idea is to sort it, or bury your head in the sand.
  • alexalex Posts: 244
    Scottish Borders cancels out Glasgow.
  • AllyMAllyM Posts: 260
    Starting to feel good... Starting.
  • Oliver_PBOliver_PB Posts: 397
    edited September 2014
    SNP has managed to convert supporters in poor areas but struggling getting beyond their core support in wealthier areas. The BBC's coverage is bugging me by not pointing out that SNP wins a lot of their Holywood/Westminster seats on 40% or less support. It's not that surprising that independence isn't ahead despite them being safe SNP seats. There's no inherent contradiction.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sky News: NO have won.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Nicola refuses to concede
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Not much correlation between SNP Westminster constituencies and Yes votes, it would seem. But it's hard to imagine the referendum result won't spill over into next May's results in various ways.
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    ITV : No 170,000 ahead
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,845
    Scott_P said:

    Nicola refuses to concede

    Well that only makes her look ill-informed
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    edited September 2014
    Nicola Sturgeon (paraphrasing) After this campaign I don't think the electorate is going to allow any politician to renege on their promises.... (Dave are you listening?)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,578
    SeanT said:

    Fuck Scotland.

    They are now England's bitch. Forever.

    I was going to put this in a Telegraph blog but my editor is unsure.

    Probably unwise. Blogging after 2 bottles.. okay, after 4? Hmm, maybe not!
  • alexalex Posts: 244
    SeanT said:

    Fuck Scotland.

    They are now England's bitch. Forever.

    I was going to put this in a Telegraph blog but my editor is unsure.

    Or the other way around ;)
  • AllyMAllyM Posts: 260
    SeanT said:

    Fuck Scotland.

    They are now England's bitch. Forever.

    I was going to put this in a Telegraph blog but my editor is unsure.

    Why are we?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Scottish Borders votes No by 28,000 compared to Glasgow voting Yes by 25,000.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,413
    Sod Off Seant, Scotland just voted for Great Britain!! No wonder your editors were unsure.
    SeanT said:

    Fuck Scotland.

    They are now England's bitch. Forever.

    I was going to put this in a Telegraph blog but my editor is unsure.

  • ItajaiItajai Posts: 721
    Celebratory dram?
  • MontyMonty Posts: 346
    SeanT said:

    Fuck Scotland.

    They are now England's bitch. Forever.

    I was going to put this in a Telegraph blog but my editor is unsure.

    Put in on James Kelly's blog instead. Let the healing begin.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Edinburgh is about to stick two fingers up at Glasgow.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,311
    Campaign in Scotland a joy - Sturgeon must wonder why the press weren't so overjoyed....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,578
    AndyJS said:

    Scottish Borders votes No by 28,000 compared to Glasgow voting Yes by 25,000.

    To paraphrase @Life_ina_market_town ... Borders, tremendously loyal.
  • alexalex Posts: 244
    edited September 2014
    manofkent2014 said:

    Nicola Sturgeon (paraphrasing) After this campaign I don't think the electorate is going to allow any politician to renege on their promises.... (Dave are you listening?)

    I'm not sure Dave has an awful lot of votes for the (Scottish) electorate to punish him with...

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,827
    good night everyone!
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Oliver_PB
    A lot of the "Yes" votes are borrowed. A percentage of those were motivated by the idea of "No more Tories ever!"
    Quite a prominent slogan for left leaning voters, and well placed on the way to the voting place.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,578
    517,554 for No to win!
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    edited September 2014
    SeanT said:

    Fuck Scotland.

    They are now England's bitch. Forever.

    I was going to put this in a Telegraph blog but my editor is unsure.

    You certainly have a turn of phrase about you. Good polemic, not so sure if now is the time for that though. ;-)
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,808
    Margin will widen with Edinburgh and Aberdeenshire to come.

    Good chance No gets over 55%.
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    alex said:

    manofkent2014 said:

    Nicola Sturgeon (paraphrasing) After this campaign I don't think the electorate is going to allow any politician to renege on their promises.... (Dave are you listening?)

    I'm not sure Dave has an awful lot of votes for the electorate to punish him with...

    Not in Scotland perhaps but one of the SNP's favourite ploys is to leverage English voters in pursuit of their goals. Watch that space......
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,079
    edited September 2014
    Smarmeron said:

    FTP
    @JosiasJessop
    If people feel that no matter how hard they work, they are going nowhere, you economy is furuked.
    Best idea is to sort it, or bury your head in the sand.

    And the Conservative (and to a lesser extent LD) meme is ideal for them: you can have a better life if you work hard. If you cannot through disability, we will help. If you try and fail, we will help.

    Sadly, many people in poor areas are burying their heads in the sand by voting for Labour each time, who have done nothing to improve things for generations.

    As an aside, I've been looking for an answer to what I call the 'Merthyr' problem for some time. Merthyr Tydfil is a poor town in a beautiful area. They have weighed Labour votes since 1970 (*), yet it is still a poor area despite having some lovely people. Until Labour can help people like those in Merthyr, they do not deserve power.

    (*) And only then because the previous Labour MP, Owen Davies, was deselected and stood as an independent and won.
  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    South Ayrshire strongly "No".
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,079
    South Ayrshire: big no.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,311
    South Ayrshire 86.1% turnout Y 34,402 N 47,247
  • AllyMAllyM Posts: 260
    SeanT said:

    AllyM said:

    SeanT said:

    Fuck Scotland.

    They are now England's bitch. Forever.

    I was going to put this in a Telegraph blog but my editor is unsure.

    Why are we?
    We're gonna take all your oil, take all your whisky, and take all your dubious packed-meat quasi-food products, and use them to pump up London property prices, then spit you out like we did with Rockall, which used to be Atlantis.

    THAT'S WHAT WE DO

    AND YOU VOTED FOR MORE OF IT, YOU PATHETIC KILTED BITCHES

    (Clearly I don't believe any of this, I am just letting off steam having been abused for being mere English for TWO SOLID YEARS by cybernats on pb)</blockquote

    In truth, the cyber-Nats were terrible.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited September 2014
    Betfair is all over the place.

    'tis the night of the psephologically illiterate armchair traders.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,446
    No wins S Ayrshire Y 34K N 47K
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    58% No in S Ayrshire
  • MontyMonty Posts: 346
    I hope this leads to a more decentralised government in the UK. Over a million people voted to leave and their concerns must be listened to.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @JosiasJessop
    Tell me, who exactly has "won" in monetary terms, and who has lost?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,578
    BBC: No need 470,274
  • Fat_SteveFat_Steve Posts: 361
    What a pity Scotland's most amused blogger is no longer with us.
    In honour of Mick Pork, chortle.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,446
    The Glasgow result a crumb of comfort for Yes, but margin nowhere near enough to make up for losses elsewhere
  • ItajaiItajai Posts: 721
    SeanT said:

    AllyM said:

    SeanT said:

    Fuck Scotland.

    They are now England's bitch. Forever.

    I was going to put this in a Telegraph blog but my editor is unsure.

    Why are we?
    We're gonna take all your oil, take all your whisky, and take all your dubious packed-meat quasi-food products, and use them to pump up London property prices, then spit you out like we did with Rockall, which used to be Atlantis.

    THAT'S WHAT WE DO

    AND YOU VOTED FOR MORE OF IT, YOU PATHETIC KILTED BITCHES

    (Clearly I don't believe any of this, I am just letting off steam having been abused for being mere English for TWO SOLID YEARS by cybernats on pb)
    And if you dare to vote Labour....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,446
    SeanT Not quite, Cameron half Scottish, Brown a Scot, Blair born in Edinburgh
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,079
    East Ayrshire: no.
  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    East Ayrshire narrowly loyal by 53%.
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    No over 200,000 votes clear now (ITV)
  • MontyMonty Posts: 346
    Hardeep looking really pissed off on BBC.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    E Ayrshire: 53% No
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,311
    Scott_P said:

    Nicola refuses to concede

    Leaving the tricky bit to Salmond...

  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @SeanT
    I seem to remember that you soiled your underwear during the "riots"?
    Come ahead if you think you are hard enough you effete pansy!
  • MontyMonty Posts: 346
    Have Yes conceded yet?
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    ITV Peter Hain peddling this foul 'City Regions proposal' Thats the trouble with Labour they seem to think that England is solely made up of their rotten urban ghettoes.
  • Unionist1707Unionist1707 Posts: 43
    I'm chuffed with the Borders result :D
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,578
    Unionist1707 said:

    I'm chuffed with the Borders result :D

    I think it was me who joked with you about your calls to 500 voters. My sincere apologies for ever (jokingly) doubting you!
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,203
    Monty said:

    Hardeep looking really pissed off on BBC.

    And sounding even more pissed off.

  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,551
    Looks like my final 55/45 (in one direction or another) call was right - am delighted that my view of a week back that yes could win has beenroven wrong.

    So, what next? The pledge won't go anywhere, the leaders won't go anywhere, what about Gordon Broon?
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    Well given Labour are offering such a crap screwed up self serving proposal we English need a referendum. English Parliament or f***ed up Labour carve up?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,311
    Hain regions of England crap.

  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,413
    FPT. Peter from Putney nails it for the next GE. As I keep saying, its the economy stupid, just keep looking at those economic competence leads that Cameron and Osborne enjoy over Ed Miliband and Ed Balls.

    "If the final result is indeed 43% : 57%, representing a No win by 14% (perhaps even more), you'd have to say that the pollsters didn't exactly cover themselves with glory.

    The reason ...... for my money they hopelessly underestimated the Shy Nos, just as they will underestimate the Shy Tories next May - remember you read it here first!"
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,203
    BBC finally calling it for No
  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    Jim Murphy on Sky preposterously trying to claim that the voting rights of London MPs would have to be "looked at" because of the existence of the Greater London Authority. Absurd.
  • MontyMonty Posts: 346
    BBC forecasts No. In other news BBC forecasts Pope as Catholic.
  • Ally_BAlly_B Posts: 185
    BBC says its a NO vote. I think I can go to bed now. The UK still exists and the sun will rise in a couple of hours time.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,578
    Excellent. Next one in 307 years?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,003
    SeanT said:

    Fuck Scotland.

    They are now England's bitch. Forever.

    I was going to put this in a Telegraph blog but my editor is unsure.

    If you want a picture of the future, think of Sean T's boot trampling a cybernat's face. Forever.

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,808
    dr_spyn said:

    Hain regions of England crap.

    The response must be:

    "Do you want different Income Tax in Manchester and Kent?"
  • Unionist1707Unionist1707 Posts: 43
    RobD said:

    Unionist1707 said:

    I'm chuffed with the Borders result :D

    I think it was me who joked with you about your calls to 500 voters. My sincere apologies for ever (jokingly) doubting you!
    Unfortunately the calls never happened; I applied for Blether Together, but my registration was never validated!

    I'll put in down to all the door-knocking, and putting 4 No Thanks flags on the car :)

  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,413
    Twitter
    @AlanRoden: Journalists for selected media outlets are heading to meet Alex Salmond in an undisclosed location in Edinburgh. ‪#‎indyref‬
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,311
    Scottish Referendum result Live bbc
    Less than a minute ago
    Referendum result projected to reject independence
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    fitalass said:

    FPT. Peter from Putney nails it for the next GE. As I keep saying, its the economy stupid, just keep looking at those economic competence leads that Cameron and Osborne enjoy over Ed Miliband and Ed Balls.

    "If the final result is indeed 43% : 57%, representing a No win by 14% (perhaps even more), you'd have to say that the pollsters didn't exactly cover themselves with glory.

    The reason ...... for my money they hopelessly underestimated the Shy Nos, just as they will underestimate the Shy Tories next May - remember you read it here first!"

    There have been plenty of Shy Tories in recent council by elections in England . so shy you could not pick them up even from the results .
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,669
    RobD said:

    Excellent. Next one in 307 years?

    No. This is too close, too divisive and too passionate for things to ever be the same again. Big change is coming. There's no alternative.
  • ItajaiItajai Posts: 721
    6am-celebratory dram!! off work tomorrow. Looks like 55/45 which is what I'd said a year ago. Quite surprising considering it was squeeay bum time last two weeks and would have been happy for 51/49. Didn't think I'd care so much as I did to be fair.

    Jim Murphy ok, but pls no Gords!! Actually we can go back to hating socialists - all of them
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,578
    Unionist1707 said:

    RobD said:

    Unionist1707 said:

    I'm chuffed with the Borders result :D

    I think it was me who joked with you about your calls to 500 voters. My sincere apologies for ever (jokingly) doubting you!
    Unfortunately the calls never happened; I applied for Blether Together, but my registration was never validated!

    I'll put in down to all the door-knocking, and putting 4 No Thanks flags on the car :)

    Ah-ha! So your lack of validation saved the Union! Gawd bless unnecessary bureaucracy! Heh

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,446
    Tommy Sheridan conceded defeat on 5 live
  • MontyMonty Posts: 346
    It's a No. That's a turnip for the books.
  • ItajaiItajai Posts: 721
    To make it clear I'd have gone 51/49 YES
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Do we think it'll be over/under 45?

    I'm guessing 44.5%
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,578
    Monty said:

    It's a No. That's a turnip for the books.

    Oh for a like button :')
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,669
    One or two nats on twitter bleating on about being citizens of an "independent Glasgow".
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,079
    Smarmeron said:

    @JosiasJessop
    Tell me, who exactly has "won" in monetary terms, and who has lost?

    I'm not sure that's the right question. Obviously, people who choose to take risks with capital and time, and work hard will win in monetary terms; there is no way the state could compete.

    I can give numerous examples from people I know and have known: likeable people who society have thrown onto the scrapheap. In a few cases they have been told by authority figures (e.g. teachers) that they were only good for one type of job which has now disappeared. They have been hurt by the disease of low expectations. On the other hand, a girl from a similar family who put herself through uni (with no help from her parents) and now earns a great deal. In this as in all matters, confidence is key.

    However: there is a big problem with people earning large rewards with little risk or effort. That is, to me at least, obvious.

    Concentrating hatred on the people who succeed does not help those who do not. We should be trying to make more of the latter into the former.
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    MikeL said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Hain regions of England crap.

    The response must be:

    "Do you want different Income Tax in Manchester and Kent?"
    I'd rather have different Purchase tax rates in Kent and Manchester!
This discussion has been closed.