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Rishi and Liz looking stronger on the betting markets – politicalbetting.com

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  • XipeXipe Posts: 47

    Slightly tacky, given how many will succumb to the heat with each degree rise.....
    Darwin will have his day
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    HYUFD said:

    @Steven_Swinford
    Sounds like Tom Tugendhat has already lost quite a few of his 32 backers ahead of tonight's vote

    Team Mordaunt thinks that they're going to pick up a fair few of them - enough to retain a lead over Truss

    Others are going over to Sunak

    I expect a wholesale collapse in Tugendhat tonight. He’ll be lucky to stay in double digits.
    Suggest something like 14, losing 12 to Rishi and 6 to Penny.

    Braverman’s votes will almost all go to Truss.

    There’s a chance Truss beats Mordaunt tonight.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,674
    Xipe said:

    Actually, this is more like watching Tim Henman

    COME ON WEATHER, ONE MORE HEAVE

    Yet you just know Weather is going to fail. A lack of self belief. The potential is there yet something prevents the record falling. Psychological

    This is a shit heatwave and I for one am off to the dry cleaners

    Tomorrow it's going to be more like Andy Murray finally getting over the line after years of watching Tim get nowhere.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,051
    Well he may well come out of it with additional territory. At extreme cost and a geopolitical situation the reverse of what he wants.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    I expect a wholesale collapse in Tugendhat tonight. He’ll be lucky to stay in double digits.
    Suggest something like 14, losing 12 to Rishi and 6 to Penny.

    Braverman’s votes will almost all go to Truss.

    There’s a chance Truss beats Mordaunt tonight.
    I don't see a profitable way out for him, Rishi isn't going to heap him with rewards after all the fresh start stuff
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,296
    HYUFD said:

    @Steven_Swinford
    Sounds like Tom Tugendhat has already lost quite a few of his 32 backers ahead of tonight's vote

    Team Mordaunt thinks that they're going to pick up a fair few of them - enough to retain a lead over Truss

    Others are going over to Sunak

    So, million $ question - will the Badenoch people put Truss or Mordaunt into the Final?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,959
    MaxPB said:

    Tomorrow it's going to be more like Andy Murray finally getting over the line after years of watching Tim get nowhere.
    I imagine we are going to see plenty of Kyrgios behaviour from the public.....
  • XipeXipe Posts: 47
    IshmaelZ said:

    Cambridge powers to 36, at long last we know what the place is for

    https://en.allmetsat.com/metar-taf/united-kingdom-ireland.php?icao=EGSC

    Cambridge is the last of the big guns. I think london has given up and will barely make a frankly chilly 37.5C

    But Cambridge? Yes. They could still do it

    UP THE WEATHER
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,051

    Trevelyan has knifed Mordaunt on LBC. Went AWOL and other ministers had to pick up the pieces, apparently.

    I have been fascinated at what appears to be the depth of sheer dislike for Mordaunt. It seems to go beyond genuine policy disagreement and more into a need to take her down and humiliate her. Wonder what the background is to all this.

    It is certainly unusual to hear someone's competence questioned like this.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    My prediction tonight is

    Sunak, 118
    Mordaunt, 84
    Truss, 83
    Badenoch, 56
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,675
    MaxPB said:

    Tomorrow it's going to be more like Andy Murray finally getting over the line after years of watching Tim get nowhere.
    Yeah not sure why Sean is getting so excited when today is just the starter and tomorrow is the main event?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,278
    kle4 said:

    Well he may well come out of it with additional territory. At extreme cost and a geopolitical situation the reverse of what he wants.
    Zelensky has suspended his top prosecutor and chief security officer over alleged treason

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62202078
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,296
    Xipe said:

    I'm off to a beautiful little pub near Regent's Park in a minute. Got a 2 hectare arboretum, a full size ice castle and English Fizz Fountains
    Yes I know that one - v nice.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Xipe said:

    Actually, this is more like watching Tim Henman

    COME ON WEATHER, ONE MORE HEAVE

    Yet you just know Weather is going to fail. A lack of self belief. The potential is there yet something prevents the record falling. Psychological

    This is a shit heatwave and I for one am off to the dry cleaners

    Bloody hell. @Leon (before your time) went to the dry cleaners last week in Montenegro. wtf do you take to Montenegro that needs a dry clean and then another one in London? Is this a euphemism, or a physical dependency on the inhalants available there? Aren't dry cleaners baking hot on hot days?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,432
    GIN1138 said:

    Good afternoon PB.

    Bit warm isn't it?

    Hospital ice lollies being distributed as I type. Just what the Doctor ordered!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,278
    kinabalu said:

    So, million $ question - will the Badenoch people put Truss or Mordaunt into the Final?
    It would need almost all of them and almost all of Braverman's backers to ensure Truss gets to the final 2 but not impossible
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,910

    My prediction tonight is

    Sunak, 118
    Mordaunt, 84
    Truss, 83
    Badenoch, 56

    Looks right to me, although I'm hoping Kemi Badenoch will be a bit higher.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,872

    The concept is fine, the application less fine. In my example lets assume that the late-running intercity service was because of something in their control. They have to pay for their delay. Which is fine.

    The problem is that the passengers suffer because the other company decided to send the connection. Watching it pull out as you pull in - with the next one hours away - is a uniquely frustrating experience.

    Especially when its a branch train with buckets of padding in its own schedule. So the delayed start won't cause problems.

    Delay attribution could be used to maintain connections. Instead it does the opposite.
    That also happened in the past. The idea that held connections were common is, AIUI, a fantasy.

    Also think of *who* delays the train. You are the guard. If you delay your train more than a minute or two to allow a connection, then you have zero idea what the network effects are elsewhere - your action might cause significant problems for other trains and passengers.

    Let's say you have a branch line. For simplicity's sale, say each branch line train carries 50 passengers, of which 10 come from the other (main line) train. There is a train every half-hour, connecting with a main-line service every half-hour at RochPion Junction.

    On this occasion, the main line train is 5 minutes late arriving at RochPion Jcn. Delaying the branch line train advantages the ten passengers, who now do not have to wait half an hour for the next train. That is 300 passenger-minutes saved. Cool. Except for the 40 passengers who did not come off the connection, who have lost 200 passenger-minutes (the 5-miniute delay).

    But because that branch train is now late, it is late for the crossing loop where it passed the other service on the branch. That train, also containing 50 passengers, is delayed by five minutes. That is 250 passenger minutes cost. But the late arrival of that second service means that ten of those passengers have missed their connection at RochPion Jcn, and have to wait 25 minutes for their next train. Another 250 passenger-minute cost.

    Hence, that small delay has saved ten passengers 300 minutes, and cost everyone else on the trains 700 minutes.

    Yes, this is a simplified example, but it shows how holding trains can actually cost passengers time, especially if only a few people connect. And ops people do try to hold trains, if they can, but often they cannot. And as we have a much busier network nowadays, holding trains is much harder.

    The railways are a network, and network effects are massive.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,763
    Relax, everyone. We have tomorrow for breaking the record too.

    We are 4c away from the Scottish record at the mo.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,831
    edited July 2022
    Xipe said:

    Fascinatingly simple record of the hottest UK temp in every year from 1900 on

    https://www.trevorharley.com/hottest-day-of-each-year-from-1900.html


    Obvious trends and sub-plots. Looks like there really was a golden Edwardian era before WW1: all those ladies with white parasols. It is noticeably warm

    Camden Square used to be a major weather station!

    There is a distinct mid-century cooling off, the 1950s-60s are a bit rubbish, likewise the 1980s

    But in the 1990s it perhaps begins to pick up and the global warming trend is surely discernible from about 2000 onwards, esp the last decade. And today



    (Also some weird anomalies. Hottest place in 1979? Poolewe in the Scottish Highlands - 28.8C. In 1980, Cors Fochno in Dyfed, 29.4C)


    High readings from spots on the edge of mountain ranges, like those two, normally arise from the Fohn effect, which can be quite dramatic.

    Moist air gets pushed up over the mountains, forcing condensation as rain, while the heat released from the condensation counteracts the normal cooling of air as it rises. You then have a stream of already warm relatively dry air descending into the rain shadow of the mountains, where the warming of air as it sinks (due to rising pressure) combines with direct ground warming from the sunny conditions to create a local warm spot.

    It’s quite common north east of the Cairngorms, which despite its latitude can be surprisingly warm.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,278
    Xipe said:

    Cambridge is the last of the big guns. I think london has given up and will barely make a frankly chilly 37.5C

    But Cambridge? Yes. They could still do it

    UP THE WEATHER
    It actually seems cooler here than yesterday despite the supposed Sahara warnings, albeit we have had the curtains largely shut and fans going
  • XipeXipe Posts: 47
    IshmaelZ said:

    Bloody hell. @Leon (before your time) went to the dry cleaners last week in Montenegro. wtf do you take to Montenegro that needs a dry clean and then another one in London? Is this a euphemism, or a physical dependency on the inhalants available there? Aren't dry cleaners baking hot on hot days?
    They iron my linen shirts
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,675
    Foxy said:

    Hospital ice lollies being distributed as I type. Just what the Doctor ordered!
    I bet they've still got windows shut and the heating on lol?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,872
    Xipe said:

    Cambridge is the last of the big guns. I think london has given up and will barely make a frankly chilly 37.5C

    But Cambridge? Yes. They could still do it

    UP THE WEATHER
    It feels very warm here, just a few miles outside Cambridge. Went for a five minute walk at lunchtime to a friend's house to drop off a clay pig, and it was not pleasant. I could probably do a long walk in it, with enough water, but it would have to be a last resort.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,296

    I think it might be different tribes. Puzzles me how David Davis who worked with her has nothing but great things to say, and Lord Frost who worked with her has nothing but bad things to say. I think we need to hear from the Magician she insisted. 'Always disappearing' would I suppose be more of a benefit in that role though.
    There's mileage for her here, I think.

    "He trusted me with the saw - you can trust me with the country."
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    IshmaelZ said:

    I don't see a profitable way out for him, Rishi isn't going to heap him with rewards after all the fresh start stuff
    Rishi’s Ministry would not look that different from Johnson’s. We might expect a clear-out of obvious duffers (Rees-Mogg etc), but on the other hand Williamson could be back.

    I imagine Rishi would attempt to put all of the last five in his Cabinet; although you would not move Wallace from Defence and so there might not be room for Tugendhat.

    I imagine Javid will return as Chancellor.
  • Xipe said:

    They iron my linen shirts
    Do you like penis shaped objects
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613

    British trains often feel a bit cramped and for a long time I assumed Britain had a narrow gauge and therefore the carriages were narrower.

    (As you can see I am not an engineer and know nothing about trains).

    Having learned today that Britain is standard gauge, I presume therefore that the privatised operators merely pack the seating more densely.

    They do. Longitudinally as well, which is why the origina 125s were much more comfortable, with proper tables at each window spacing.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,470

    Of course there is competition. You can drive, you can work from home, you can get a taxi, you can ride a bike. There's plenty of alternatives.

    Railway passenger numbers literally more than doubled between privatisation and Covid. After they collapsed during the nationalisation days.
    Policy during most of nationalisation was, IIRC managed decline and all investment was controlled by the Treasury.

    If you regard more passengers as a bug, not a feature, your business will tend to end up with less passengers. This is a surprising as murder suicides among Putin's (ex) pals.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613
    Nigelb said:

    Barty appears to see competition - or its absence - as some sort of binary abstract.

    Odd way of looking at the world.

    (edit - why does autocorrect default to adding apostrophes where they're not wanted ?)
    Maybe it's the greengrocery option for Vanilla which someone switched on in error.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,831
    HYUFD said:

    It actually seems cooler here than yesterday despite the supposed Sahara warnings, albeit we have had the curtains largely shut and fans going
    You could always emulate your boss and go sit in the fridge?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Carnyx said:

    Rather nice photo here showing what happens if the heat comes halfway through the job of renewing track ...

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/is-it-real-photo-of-railway-track-bent-by-the-heat-looks-fake-but-isn-t-20180214-p4z0c2.html
    Here’s some Swedish pics of the same phenomenon:

    https://www.eyeo.se/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/solkurva.jpg

    https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcR5XyBBZ0z1WJoQiexoUj-WigJGVK46xoAadA&usqp=CAU

    https://images.aftonbladet-cdn.se/v2/images/4fe12e48-1115-4664-916f-2c4b0c0d4efa?fit=crop&format=auto&h=950&q=50&w=1900&s=9af90f6ddb86ad9e0c8fbe3151013c8a31f9e752
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    Carnyx said:

    They do. Longitudinally as well, which is why the origina 125s were much more comfortable, with proper tables at each window spacing.
    TIL it is about the loading gauge.
    But I was right that British trains do tend to be more cramped.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,470
    Xipe said:

    They iron my linen shirts
    I still have fond memories of the hotel bar in HK (pre handover!) where after my first Stinger, the bar tender enquired whether I wanted the tab on the room to be under Laundry or Dry Cleaning.....
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,296
    HYUFD said:

    It would need almost all of them and almost all of Braverman's backers to ensure Truss gets to the final 2 but not impossible
    Per my calcs just a healthy majority of KB transfers would do it for Truss.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    My prediction tonight is

    Sunak, 118
    Mordaunt, 84
    Truss, 83
    Badenoch, 56

    I'll take a punt (and one admittedly would suit me very well financially) - Badenoch will get to 60 and above. I think there's a fair bit of dissension over Truss in the ERG, she's had some fairly good numbers in the surveys and the MPs will be listening to their constituents.

    I'd also slightly disagree that the consensual view on here that she lost momentum last night is correct necessarily - as I said, The Telegraph seems to differ from what people thought here (and probably closer to @NickPalmer's comments) and I'm weary of using the betting markets as too accurate a guide to momentum given we influence it a lot on here with our comments.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,910
    Doesn't feel too bad so far, maybe because it isn't particularly humid.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,818
    HYUFD said:

    Zelensky has suspended his top prosecutor and chief security officer over alleged treason

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62202078
    Important note.
    They haven't been suspended for treason.
    But for treason in their departments. Slightly different.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,897

    Do you like penis shaped objects
    Who doesn’t?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613

    That also happened in the past. The idea that held connections were common is, AIUI, a fantasy.

    Also think of *who* delays the train. You are the guard. If you delay your train more than a minute or two to allow a connection, then you have zero idea what the network effects are elsewhere - your action might cause significant problems for other trains and passengers.

    Let's say you have a branch line. For simplicity's sale, say each branch line train carries 50 passengers, of which 10 come from the other (main line) train. There is a train every half-hour, connecting with a main-line service every half-hour at RochPion Junction.

    On this occasion, the main line train is 5 minutes late arriving at RochPion Jcn. Delaying the branch line train advantages the ten passengers, who now do not have to wait half an hour for the next train. That is 300 passenger-minutes saved. Cool. Except for the 40 passengers who did not come off the connection, who have lost 200 passenger-minutes (the 5-miniute delay).

    But because that branch train is now late, it is late for the crossing loop where it passed the other service on the branch. That train, also containing 50 passengers, is delayed by five minutes. That is 250 passenger minutes cost. But the late arrival of that second service means that ten of those passengers have missed their connection at RochPion Jcn, and have to wait 25 minutes for their next train. Another 250 passenger-minute cost.

    Hence, that small delay has saved ten passengers 300 minutes, and cost everyone else on the trains 700 minutes.

    Yes, this is a simplified example, but it shows how holding trains can actually cost passengers time, especially if only a few people connect. And ops people do try to hold trains, if they can, but often they cannot. And as we have a much busier network nowadays, holding trains is much harder.

    The railways are a network, and network effects are massive.
    Quite. But the change I am thinking of was kept within brief limits. However, even those limits made a big difference, and were formally timeabled as a connection. Another thing that has been swept away.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110

    Policy during most of nationalisation was, IIRC managed decline and all investment was controlled by the Treasury.

    If you regard more passengers as a bug, not a feature, your business will tend to end up with less passengers. This is a surprising as murder suicides among Putin's (ex) pals.
    Classic Treasury, there.
    Seem not to be aware of economic text-books after about 1820.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,712
    With reference to the graphs on rail usage posted earlier, it seems to me blindingly obvious that the decline in rail usage between around 1955 and 1975 was entirely due to the rise of the private motor car, rather than any perceived or real failings of BR/nationalisation. Once the roads got too full, some people returned to the railways.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613

    Who doesn’t?
    Had Stornoway black pudding for lunch yesterday. So yes, I agree.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Rishi’s Ministry would not look that different from Johnson’s. We might expect a clear-out of obvious duffers (Rees-Mogg etc), but on the other hand Williamson could be back.

    I imagine Rishi would attempt to put all of the last five in his Cabinet; although you would not move Wallace from Defence and so there might not be room for Tugendhat.

    I imagine Javid will return as Chancellor.
    Tricky to have PM and CE with non dom issues
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613
    edited July 2022
    One of the other problems the railways had was that theyu were legally obliged to carry anything and everything, however small or uneconomic - from a single parcel to a circus elephant. I can't remember when that was changed in law, but it must have been about 1970?

    It was a huge issue for the private railways as for BR before them. Also in the USA.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Mordaunt drifting badly. Now 5/1
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    IshmaelZ said:

    Tricky to have PM and CE with non dom issues
    True, but I’m casting around for other possibilities. Simon Clarke or Steve Barclay, I suppose. Non-entities, all.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,872

    TIL it is about the loading gauge.
    But I was right that British trains do tend to be more cramped.
    As a useless fact, it's worse on the old Mark-IV coaches used on the ECML with the class 91's (now being replaced by the Azuma). The Mark-IV coaches were designed so that tilting could be added later if necessary, and hence they have an APT-style narrowing profile from sole bar upwards. It'd be interesting to know if any PBers who travelled on them regularly ever noticed...

    The tilting Pendelinos also have narrower profiles for the same reason.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,296
    Andy_JS said:

    Doesn't feel too bad so far, maybe because it isn't particularly humid.

    Yep the humidity is key. The hottest I've ever been was in Borneo with a combo of heat and high humidity. This doesn't feel as hot even though it's hotter.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    MrEd said:

    I'll take a punt (and one admittedly would suit me very well financially) - Badenoch will get to 60 and above. I think there's a fair bit of dissension over Truss in the ERG, she's had some fairly good numbers in the surveys and the MPs will be listening to their constituents.

    I'd also slightly disagree that the consensual view on here that she lost momentum last night is correct necessarily - as I said, The Telegraph seems to differ from what people thought here (and probably closer to @NickPalmer's comments) and I'm weary of using the betting markets as too accurate a guide to momentum given we influence it a lot on here with our comments.

    Some pollsters are not great at reaching brexity WWC voters, in my view. Hence the discrepancy between the snap polls and what we see on sites like Conhome.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    MaxPB said:

    I think if Rishi wins he should make Kemi the Chancellor. She may actually go in and smash the place up and get rid of all the declinists that currently infest it.
    Yes but you and I know he won’t, which is why we don’t like him in the first place.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,213

    Yes but remember your home is slowly heating up and will be slow to cool.
    I reckon two days of this won't be that bad.
    A full week might have been catastrophic.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613

    Here’s some Swedish pics of the same phenomenon:

    https://www.eyeo.se/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/solkurva.jpg

    https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcR5XyBBZ0z1WJoQiexoUj-WigJGVK46xoAadA&usqp=CAU

    https://images.aftonbladet-cdn.se/v2/images/4fe12e48-1115-4664-916f-2c4b0c0d4efa?fit=crop&format=auto&h=950&q=50&w=1900&s=9af90f6ddb86ad9e0c8fbe3151013c8a31f9e752
    Interesting - you can see where the ballast has been swept laterally by the sleepers of the buckling track.
  • "Feels like 34 in London" , according to the Met Office.

    I'll take that, yes.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613

    As a useless fact, it's worse on the old Mark-IV coaches used on the ECML with the class 91's (now being replaced by the Azuma). The Mark-IV coaches were designed so that tilting could be added later if necessary, and hence they have an APT-style narrowing profile from sole bar upwards. It'd be interesting to know if any PBers who travelled on them regularly ever noticed...

    The tilting Pendelinos also have narrower profiles for the same reason.
    Not that I recall, but the most important element would have been the width at seated person shoulder and hip height anyway.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,213

    I think it might be different tribes. Puzzles me how David Davis who worked with her has nothing but great things to say, and Lord Frost who worked with her has nothing but bad things to say. I think we need to hear from the Magician she insisted. 'Always disappearing' would I suppose be more of a benefit in that role though.
    I don't think you can account either of those two reliable witnesses.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,470

    Classic Treasury, there.
    Seem not to be aware of economic text-books after about 1820.
    Political economics - bung a subsidy. Immediate, cheap, gets you to the next election.

    Investment takes multiple parliaments, often reducing "immediate jobs" (productivity)*, disruption, costs much more (short term) etc...

    Which is why many nationalised industries were run into the ground.

    *When I was growing up in the 80s, it was very common for Trade Union officials and Labour MPs to criticise productivity increases as reducing employment. The Lump of Work fallacy seemed quite widespread.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,872
    Carnyx said:

    One of the other problems the railways had was that theyu were legally obliged to carry anything and everything, however small or uneconomic - from a single parcel to a circus elephant. I can't remember when that was changed in law, but it must have been about 1970?

    It was a huge issue for the private railways as for BR before them. Also in the USA.

    Common Carrier. And yes, it was a *massive* issue for the railways, and it took far too long to be repealed.

    http://igg.org.uk/rail/1-hist/hist-a.htm
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,641
    edited July 2022

    Mordaunt drifting badly. Now 5/1

    In the last few hours, Mordaunt has been out, then in, now out again to 4/1. What it means is anyone's guess. I think the hustings start round about now but I've mislaid the link.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613
    edited July 2022

    Common Carrier. And yes, it was a *massive* issue for the railways, and it took far too long to be repealed.

    http://igg.org.uk/rail/1-hist/hist-a.htm
    That's it! Thanks. I was thinking in terms of the parcels service closure, but obviously that must have taken some time.

    The other problem was private owner wagons - four wheel, crap quality to begin with, badly maintained, poorly equipped with brakes (sometimes not at all, other than a stationary handbrake) and lube, and of inconsistent standards. Having to run an assortment in trains when you had no control over them ... they lasted into the 1960s I think?

    (Not concerned with the high quality modern ones on bogies for trainload traffic from one place to another, that's different.)
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,892
    edited July 2022
    Nigelb said:

    I don't think you can account either of those two reliable witnesses.
    Milord Frosties apparently thought she wasn't sufficiently "tough " enough with Europe, which somehow doesn't surprise me , on the planet he lives on.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,641

    Common Carrier. And yes, it was a *massive* issue for the railways, and it took far too long to be repealed.

    http://igg.org.uk/rail/1-hist/hist-a.htm
    Common carrier was also an issue for our internet and telecomms infrastructure.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,262
    edited July 2022
    Foxy said:

    Hospital ice lollies being distributed as I type. Just what the Doctor ordered!
    Many many years ago when the world was very different I worked at Southend hospital pharmacy. (Vacation job). We made lollies in the microbiology fridge as the weather was very warm indeed. All the junior nurses came out in boils!
    1959 if memory serves.

    And in the Colchester area it has hit 35°C!
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    kinabalu said:

    Yep the humidity is key. The hottest I've ever been was in Borneo with a combo of heat and high humidity. This doesn't feel as hot even though it's hotter.
    It undoubtedly helps that it's dry, but it's pretty savage nonetheless. Pleased to be out of it for the day.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613

    Common carrier was also an issue for our internet and telecomms infrastructure.
    I had no idea that that was the case.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,118
    edited July 2022

    You go with one company because the train goes at the time you want to leave, you don't go because it's GWR vs CrossCountry, that is not how any rational human behaves.

    Now I am off for lunch! Have a good afternoon

    I avoid CrossCountry trains wherever possible because the Voyager trains are so painfully poor to travel on. They're normally cheaper than the LNER trains for the bit of the ECML that they share, but no point in punishing myself for the sake of a few quid.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,261

    With reference to the graphs on rail usage posted earlier, it seems to me blindingly obvious that the decline in rail usage between around 1955 and 1975 was entirely due to the rise of the private motor car, rather than any perceived or real failings of BR/nationalisation. Once the roads got too full, some people returned to the railways.

    Also the closure of the branch lines.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613

    Many many years ago when the world was very different I worked at Southend hospital pharmacy. (Vacation job). We made lollies in the microbiology fridge as the weather was very warm indeed. All the junior nurses came out in boils!
    1959 if memory serves.

    And in the Colchester area it has hit 35°C!
    How teasingly ambiguous you are!

    Did the boils relate to the lollies or were the lollies the treatment?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,580
    Interesting comment by a fellow alumni of Truss's at Roundhay "Comp" explaining it was far from the sink school of limited opportunities she implied. The commentator did go on to say the school outperformed it's standards (when Truss was there) during a Conservative Government after Labour took over Education policy in 1997.

    Guardian I think, sorry couldn't refind to embed.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,872
    Carnyx said:

    That's it! Thanks. I was thinking in terms of the parcels service closure, but obviously that must have taken some time.

    The other problem was private owner wagons - four wheel, crap quality to begin with, badly maintained, poorly equipped with brakes (sometimes not at all, other than a stationary handbrake) and lube, and of inconsistent standards. Having to run an assortment in trains when you had no control over them ... they lasted into the 1960s I think?

    (Not concerned with the high quality modern ones on bogies for trainload traffic from one place to another, that's different.)
    When nationalisation occurred, the new BR had to discover its stock and renumber everything from engines, coaches, wagons and even ships. To do this, they needed to know what stock they owned. And it proved to be a massive issue. ISTR that the newly-formed National Coal Board was using hundreds of BR's wagons to 'store' coal, whilst BR had inherited wagons that 'belonged' to the NCB and other private companies. It was an absolute mess.

    I once saw a thirty-foot steel flat-bed wagon at a steelworks site in Sheffield (circa 1989). They had put something heavy on it, as the buffer beams were angled up towards the sky, and the bottom of the wagon was nearly touching the rails.
  • XipeXipe Posts: 47
    Ah. Heat rising again

    COME ON, WEATHER

    Could still do it

    But if Weather fails I reckon this could be a disaster for Weather in the UK, it will be like cricket in the Windies. Too many failures and near-misses will mean that people will turn away to other things, giving up on Weather, and focusing attention on domestic livestock or walls.

    Thirty months of hurt, since 2019, but this may be the last time I invest, emotionally
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,333

    Also the closure of the branch lines.
    ...yet the branch lines were closed by Beeching due to very low usage......
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,068
    kinabalu said:

    So, million $ question - will the Badenoch people put Truss or Mordaunt into the Final?
    Truss, obv. Badenoch is hard right, small state, libertarian, anti-woke. Her supporters aren't going to switch to Mordaunt.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,213
    dixiedean said:

    Important note.
    They haven't been suspended for treason.
    But for treason in their departments. Slightly different.
    I think it's that quite a few in Ukraine's administration are Zelensky's old mates who came to power with him, and have proved not up to the job.
    As you imply, it's as likely a lack of competence in preventing infiltration/subversion in departments which are obvious targets for Russia as it is anything more sinister on their part.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,432
    GIN1138 said:

    I bet they've still got windows shut and the heating on lol?
    Nah, estates found us a portable AC unit for outpatients, windows always open for covid
    anyway. Apparently though the heating is on somewhere in the building according to the rumour mill!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,004

    Truss, obv. Badenoch is hard right, small state, libertarian, anti-woke. Her supporters aren't going to switch to Mordaunt.
    There are some snakes in the grass amongst her supporters though.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,892
    edited July 2022

    Many many years ago when the world was very different I worked at Southend hospital pharmacy. (Vacation job). We made lollies in the microbiology fridge as the weather was very warm indeed. All the junior nurses came out in boils!
    1959 if memory serves.

    And in the Colchester area it has hit 35°C!
    What a great story, This somehow makes me think of one of the early Carry On films, or "Doctor in The House". Chief superintendent pharmacist Hattie Jacques flouncing in in a white coat to tell all you students and nurses off.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,213

    Milord Frosties apparently thought she wasn't sufficiently "tough " enough with Europe, which somehow doesn't surprise me , on the planet he lives on.
    Would you employ either of the two to advise you on personnel recruitment ?
    (Or in any capacity whatsoever...)
  • MaxPB said:

    I think if Rishi wins he should make Kemi the Chancellor. She may actually go in and smash the place up and get rid of all the declinists that currently infest it.
    No chance, Rishi has completely gone native. Its sad to see.

    Truss/Kemi would be a dream team.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,261

    As a useless fact, it's worse on the old Mark-IV coaches used on the ECML with the class 91's (now being replaced by the Azuma). The Mark-IV coaches were designed so that tilting could be added later if necessary, and hence they have an APT-style narrowing profile from sole bar upwards. It'd be interesting to know if any PBers who travelled on them regularly ever noticed...

    The tilting Pendelinos also have narrower profiles for the same reason.
    The Azuma is a pretty nice train, spent 8 hours on one coming back from the Highlands yesterday, but it's still not as good as the HST/Mk3 coach. In terms of passenger experience I don't think the HST has been bettered.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Xipe said:

    Ah. Heat rising again

    COME ON, WEATHER

    Could still do it

    But if Weather fails I reckon this could be a disaster for Weather in the UK, it will be like cricket in the Windies. Too many failures and near-misses will mean that people will turn away to other things, giving up on Weather, and focusing attention on domestic livestock or walls.

    Thirty months of hurt, since 2019, but this may be the last time I invest, emotionally

    Twat.

  • XipeXipe Posts: 47
    I stand by my prediction. We won't break 40C but we will break the record. But it will be tomorrow

    39.8C somewhere around London or Cambs

    And now, like any sensible Englishman, I am off to a big beergarden with a mate
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,872

    With reference to the graphs on rail usage posted earlier, it seems to me blindingly obvious that the decline in rail usage between around 1955 and 1975 was entirely due to the rise of the private motor car, rather than any perceived or real failings of BR/nationalisation. Once the roads got too full, some people returned to the railways.

    Why is it 'blindingly obvious' ? The railways change massively in that twenty years: a large section of the network closed, we changed from majority-steam to no-steam, we went from 101 different types of coaches to the Mk-I and Mk-II, and the trains were notoriously unreliable, especially compared to nowadays. The railways were doing everything they could to discourage those pesky passengers and inconvenient freight.

    Like many things, the rise in passengers over the last 30 years will be multi-factored. I would not for a moment say that the increase in passengers since privatisation is *all* down to privatisation; there are other factors such as the governments' investments. But those who say privatisation had no effect would IMO also be very wrong.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613

    The Azuma is a pretty nice train, spent 8 hours on one coming back from the Highlands yesterday, but it's still not as good as the HST/Mk3 coach. In terms of passenger experience I don't think the HST has been bettered.
    Exactly so.
  • Pulpstar said:

    There are some snakes in the grass amongst her supporters though.
    Like Gove, Gove, Gove and Gove.

    Its interesting that all the usual suspects normally aligned with Gove are backing Rishi, while Gove himself is suddenly backing this almost unheard-of opponent who is splitting votes Truss would have been going for.

    Gove is Machiavellian enough I think he's actually backing Badenoch in order to weaken Truss, and he'll be backing Rishi afterwards.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,831
    Gatwick Airport 35.4 C, Heathrow and Northolt make 35 C, 34 C across an area from Grantham to Ipswich to Bedford, and 33 C near Aberystwyth
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,559
    Record temperature broken in Wales.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Debate cancelled
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,580
    Off Topic

    I am a bit hacked off that disgraced Prime Minister Boris Johnson is allowed to dispense with trivialities like chairing Cobra meetings and is instead indulging his bucket list fantasies such as flying sorties in fast jets with the RAF and organising a massive hooley at Chequers.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613

    Off Topic

    I am a bit hacked off that disgraced Prime Minister Boris Johnson is allowed to dispense with trivialities like chairing Cobra meetings and is instead indulging his bucket list fantasies such as flying sorties in fast jets with the RAF and organising a massive hooley at Chequers.

    Priorities is priorities.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,068

    No chance, Rishi has completely gone native. Its sad to see.

    Truss/Kemi would be a dream team.
    For a Conservative wipe out at the next general election? Agreed.
  • XipeXipe Posts: 47
    Carnyx said:

    How teasingly ambiguous you are!

    Did the boils relate to the lollies or were the lollies the treatment?
    I have the strange sensation that Old King Cole was a vector of the boils. I do hope I misconstrue
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,872

    The Azuma is a pretty nice train, spent 8 hours on one coming back from the Highlands yesterday, but it's still not as good as the HST/Mk3 coach. In terms of passenger experience I don't think the HST has been bettered.
    I've only been on a GWR IET (the same thing as Azuma), but I found the seats awful. How can the DfT get seats so wrong?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,559

    The Azuma is a pretty nice train, spent 8 hours on one coming back from the Highlands yesterday, but it's still not as good as the HST/Mk3 coach. In terms of passenger experience I don't think the HST has been bettered.
    The "Chatham" on the Keighley & Worth Valley is very luxurious. Much better than any First Class carriage today - and it is Third Class!
  • XipeXipe Posts: 47

    Record temperature broken in Wales.

    Congratulations, Wales

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    kle4 said:

    It is certainly unusual to hear someone's competence questioned like this.
    As it stands right now, 18th July I can’t see the membership choosing Truss or Mourdant over Sunak, not even close.

    As a betting site, I think we can call it for Sunak now?

    How would we describe Sunak’s personality type, he is sort of unconvincing uninspiring isn’t he, and with plenty to attack from period of his chancellorship, it’s hard to imagine him closing in on the Labour poll lead?

    Sorry if someone answered this I havn’t found it, but do we know how many members comprise the electorate? Anything between 100,000 and 200,000 is not the most accurate of measurement. Does the Conservative Psrty have a central database - will we even know what turnout was in this election?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,522

    That also happened in the past. The idea that held connections were common is, AIUI, a fantasy.

    Also think of *who* delays the train. You are the guard. If you delay your train more than a minute or two to allow a connection, then you have zero idea what the network effects are elsewhere - your action might cause significant problems for other trains and passengers.

    Let's say you have a branch line. For simplicity's sale, say each branch line train carries 50 passengers, of which 10 come from the other (main line) train. There is a train every half-hour, connecting with a main-line service every half-hour at RochPion Junction.

    On this occasion, the main line train is 5 minutes late arriving at RochPion Jcn. Delaying the branch line train advantages the ten passengers, who now do not have to wait half an hour for the next train. That is 300 passenger-minutes saved. Cool. Except for the 40 passengers who did not come off the connection, who have lost 200 passenger-minutes (the 5-miniute delay).

    But because that branch train is now late, it is late for the crossing loop where it passed the other service on the branch. That train, also containing 50 passengers, is delayed by five minutes. That is 250 passenger minutes cost. But the late arrival of that second service means that ten of those passengers have missed their connection at RochPion Jcn, and have to wait 25 minutes for their next train. Another 250 passenger-minute cost.

    Hence, that small delay has saved ten passengers 300 minutes, and cost everyone else on the trains 700 minutes.

    Yes, this is a simplified example, but it shows how holding trains can actually cost passengers time, especially if only a few people connect. And ops people do try to hold trains, if they can, but often they cannot. And as we have a much busier network nowadays, holding trains is much harder.

    The railways are a network, and network effects are massive.
    Nobody is arguing that holding every connection in every scenario makes sense. But so often now they don't hold them, with no operational effects, and the passengers screwed. There are no network effects on one train operation branchlines with long turnaround times at the terminus...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,831

    Record temperature broken in Wales.


    Above 35.2?
This discussion has been closed.