OK, here's my current take. It's hard to guesstimate the sequence in which votes will transfer (for example, some Braverman votes might go to Badenoch as an intermediate stage, and it's hard to guess how many). However, I think it's a bit easier to guess where they'll end up.
So, we start from the previous round of Sunak 101, Mordaunt 83, Truss 64, Badenoch 49, Tugendhat 32, Braverman 27. It's hard to see how the last three can be anything other than Sunak/Mordaunt/Truss. So where do the 49+32+27 votes of the to-be-eliminated candidates end up?
The first one is easy. Braverman supporters are all hard-core Brexit nutters: her votes go to Truss, possibly via Badenoch, but they end up at Truss. Truss +27
Secondly, Tugendhat. Well, we know where they're not likely to go, which is to Truss. I think they might end up roughly evenly split between the other two. Mordaunt +16, Sunak +16
What of Badenoch's current 49? It's a mixture of some hardish-core Brexiteers and some just wanting a fresh face, but also some realists. Hard to be sure, but I can see her 49 splitting pretty equally. Let's say Truss +17, Mordaunt +16. Sunak +16
Final tally: Sunak 133, Mordaunt 115, Truss 107.
Of course, there's much guesswork here, but to get Truss into second place is going to require both that she gets a substantially higher share of the current Badenoch 49 than I've assumed, and that Mordaunt doesn't do better than I've assumed in getting Tugendhat and Badenoch transfers.
That is a good assessment. I still think there is a slight chance Badenoch overhauls Truss but let's go with the view she doesn't.
I think the issue might with the Badenoch voters. There are a fair few Red Wallers in there. For me, the least appealing candidate of the three to them is Sunak given he clearly wants to rein in spending. Truss might end up getting a few more than Sunak for that reason.
OK, here's my current take. It's hard to guesstimate the sequence in which votes will transfer (for example, some Braverman votes might go to Badenoch as an intermediate stage, and it's hard to guess how many). However, I think it's a bit easier to guess where they'll end up.
So, we start from the previous round of Sunak 101, Mordaunt 83, Truss 64, Badenoch 49, Tugendhat 32, Braverman 27. It's hard to see how the last three can be anything other than Sunak/Mordaunt/Truss. So where do the 49+32+27 votes of the to-be-eliminated candidates end up?
The first one is easy. Braverman supporters are all hard-core Brexit nutters: her votes go to Truss, possibly via Badenoch, but they end up at Truss. Truss +27
Secondly, Tugendhat. Well, we know where they're not likely to go, which is to Truss. I think they might end up roughly evenly split between the other two. Mordaunt +16, Sunak +16
What of Badenoch's current 49? It's a mixture of some hardish-core Brexiteers and some just wanting a fresh face, but also some realists. Hard to be sure, but I can see her 49 splitting pretty equally. Let's say Truss +17, Mordaunt +16. Sunak +16
Final tally: Sunak 133, Mordaunt 120, Truss 107.
Of course, there's much guesswork here, but to get Truss into second place is going to require both that she gets a substantially higher share of the current Badenoch 49 than I've assumed, and that Mordaunt doesn't do better than I've assumed in getting Tugendhat and Badenoch transfers.
Your numbers don't add up.
Truss 64 + 27 + 17 = 108 not 107
Mordaunt 83 + 16 + 16 = 115 not 120
From there, if 4 fewer Badenoch voters switch to Mordaunt and switch to Truss instead then its 112 Truss versus 111 Mordaunt.
James Heale @JAHeale · 52m Told that at today’s climate hustings, chaired by Alok Sharma, Kemi Badenoch spoke “powerfully” about how climate change has impacted Nigeria. She confirmed that she is committed to not stripping out Net Zero legislation.
Have heard of politicos shifting as the wind blows. But as the thermometer rises?
OK, here's my current take. It's hard to guesstimate the sequence in which votes will transfer (for example, some Braverman votes might go to Badenoch as an intermediate stage, and it's hard to guess how many). However, I think it's a bit easier to guess where they'll end up.
So, we start from the previous round of Sunak 101, Mordaunt 83, Truss 64, Badenoch 49, Tugendhat 32, Braverman 27. It's hard to see how the last three can be anything other than Sunak/Mordaunt/Truss. So where do the 49+32+27 votes of the to-be-eliminated candidates end up?
The first one is easy. Braverman supporters are all hard-core Brexit nutters: her votes go to Truss, possibly via Badenoch, but they end up at Truss. Truss +27
Secondly, Tugendhat. Well, we know where they're not likely to go, which is to Truss. I think they might end up roughly evenly split between the other two. Mordaunt +16, Sunak +16
What of Badenoch's current 49? It's a mixture of some hardish-core Brexiteers and some just wanting a fresh face, but also some realists. Hard to be sure, but I can see her 49 splitting pretty equally. Let's say Truss +17, Mordaunt +16. Sunak +16
Final tally: Sunak 133, Mordaunt 120, Truss 107.
Of course, there's much guesswork here, but to get Truss into second place is going to require both that she gets a substantially higher share of the current Badenoch 49 than I've assumed, and that Mordaunt doesn't do better than I've assumed in getting Tugendhat and Badenoch transfers.
Your numbers don't add up.
Truss 64 + 27 + 17 = 108 not 107
Mordaunt 83 + 16 + 16 = 115 not 120
From there, if 4 fewer Badenoch voters switch to Mordaunt and switch to Truss instead then its 112 Truss versus 111 Mordaunt.
Apologies, there were a couple of typos, now fixed
OK, here's my current take. It's hard to guesstimate the sequence in which votes will transfer (for example, some Braverman votes might go to Badenoch as an intermediate stage, and it's hard to guess how many). However, I think it's a bit easier to guess where they'll end up.
So, we start from the previous round of Sunak 101, Mordaunt 83, Truss 64, Badenoch 49, Tugendhat 32, Braverman 27. It's hard to see how the last three can be anything other than Sunak/Mordaunt/Truss. So where do the 49+32+27 votes of the to-be-eliminated candidates end up?
The first one is easy. Braverman supporters are all hard-core Brexit nutters: her votes go to Truss, possibly via Badenoch, but they end up at Truss. Truss +27
Secondly, Tugendhat. Well, we know where they're not likely to go, which is to Truss. I think they might end up roughly evenly split between the other two. Mordaunt +16, Sunak +16
What of Badenoch's current 49? It's a mixture of some hardish-core Brexiteers and some just wanting a fresh face, but also some realists. Hard to be sure, but I can see her 49 splitting pretty equally. Let's say Truss +17, Mordaunt +16. Sunak +16
Final tally: Sunak 133, Mordaunt 115, Truss 109.
Of course, there's much guesswork here, but to get Truss into second place is going to require both that she gets a substantially higher share of the current Badenoch 49 than I've assumed, and that Mordaunt doesn't do better than I've assumed in getting Tugendhat and Badenoch transfers.
I think you underestimate Badenoch->Truss transfers and overestimate Badenoch->Mordaunt transfers, so we get Sunak/Truss in the final two... but, sure, it could well be close between Liz and Penny.
That is a good assessment. I still think there is a slight chance Badenoch overhauls Truss but let's go with the view she doesn't.
I think the issue might with the Badenoch voters. There are a fair few Red Wallers in there. For me, the least appealing candidate of the three to them is Sunak given he clearly wants to rein in spending. Truss might end up getting a few more than Sunak for that reason.
Which would leave it very tight.
Yes, but if they don't go to Sunak, they may go to Mordaunt instead. Hard to tell of course.
James Heale @JAHeale · 52m Told that at today’s climate hustings, chaired by Alok Sharma, Kemi Badenoch spoke “powerfully” about how climate change has impacted Nigeria. She confirmed that she is committed to not stripping out Net Zero legislation.
James Heale @JAHeale · 52m Told that at today’s climate hustings, chaired by Alok Sharma, Kemi Badenoch spoke “powerfully” about how climate change has impacted Nigeria. She confirmed that she is committed to not stripping out Net Zero legislation.
You turn if you want to. The lady is for turning too!
Trevelyan has knifed Mordaunt on LBC. Went AWOL and other ministers had to pick up the pieces, apparently.
I have been fascinated at what appears to be the depth of sheer dislike for Mordaunt. It seems to go beyond genuine policy disagreement and more into a need to take her down and humiliate her. Wonder what the background is to all this.
It is certainly unusual to hear someone's competence questioned like this.
As it stands right now, 18th July I can’t see the membership choosing Truss or Mourdant over Sunak, not even close.
As a betting site, I think we can call it for Sunak now?
How would we describe Sunak’s personality type, he is sort of unconvincing uninspiring isn’t he, and with plenty to attack from period of his chancellorship, it’s hard to imagine him closing in on the Labour poll lead?
Sorry if someone answered this I havn’t found it, but do we know how many members comprise the electorate? Anything between 100,000 and 200,000 is not the most accurate of measurement. Does the Conservative Psrty have a central database - will we even know what turnout was in this election?
I cant see the members choosing Sunak. He's not inspiring enough for them.
~35C around London in various spots. At this rate the all-time record will get smashed
Have you got air conditioning?
Nope. One Dyson fan. But my flat is "just" 28C and that temp doesn't seem to be moving, so all the good advice here and elsewhere has worked
It's perfectly comfortable to sit here in the shade and type, in my shorts. Thick Georgian walls probably help, and maybe high ceilings? Dunno
But I can *sense* the heat out there, lurking beyond my blinds
If it is 35C now and we have 3-4 more hours of warming - the highest temp is usually at 4-6pm in these conditions - then the record should fall easily. The question then is: 40C?
The closing all windows tip I found on here is awesome. Makes a huge difference. In past heatwaves, I have opened the windows. It all makes sense when you think about it.
Kemi Badenoch has now backed net zero and committed to not stripping away climate commitments at the climate hustings - now all candidates back net zero
Bart gives up?
You talking to me? I've always supported net zero. 😕
I also think the UK is doing a fantastic job at it and we need to concentrate on continuing what we're already doing, not chastise ourselves for not doing it faster.
I also think that almost all global pollution comes from the rest of the world and we should be doing more for mitigation/adaptation and not only talk about prevention which isn't in our hands anyway. Preventing climate change isn't possible, mitigating and minimising it is.
Am I the only one listening to chilled beats while squeezed into the paddling pool, with the ice in my wine glass clinking peacefully? Lots of drama over nothing so far this.
@Steven_Swinford Sounds like Tom Tugendhat has already lost quite a few of his 32 backers ahead of tonight's vote
Team Mordaunt thinks that they're going to pick up a fair few of them - enough to retain a lead over Truss
Others are going over to Sunak
So, million $ question - will the Badenoch people put Truss or Mordaunt into the Final?
Truss, obv. Badenoch is hard right, small state, libertarian, anti-woke. Her supporters aren't going to switch to Mordaunt.
There are some snakes in the grass amongst her supporters though.
Like Gove, Gove, Gove and Gove.
Its interesting that all the usual suspects normally aligned with Gove are backing Rishi, while Gove himself is suddenly backing this almost unheard-of opponent who is splitting votes Truss would have been going for.
Gove is Machiavellian enough I think he's actually backing Badenoch in order to weaken Truss, and he'll be backing Rishi afterwards.
But what would be his reward? The Home Secretaryship is always seen as a poisoned chalice, the Foreign Secretaryship is considerably debased, and the Chancellorship is also a poisoned chalice post Rishie Rich.
Perhaps Wales....
Deputy PM.
One last gig.
Though the whole plan falls down if Mordaunt remains more popular with the membership than Truss.
James Heale @JAHeale · 52m Told that at today’s climate hustings, chaired by Alok Sharma, Kemi Badenoch spoke “powerfully” about how climate change has impacted Nigeria. She confirmed that she is committed to not stripping out Net Zero legislation.
You turn if you want to. The lady is for turning too!
A few days ago Badenoch called Net Zero 'unilateral economic disarmament'
We should have listened to the Greens and Al Gore a long time ago.
We did. We've done an absolutely fantastic job.
China didn't, and what we're emitting now is pissing in the ocean compared to them. So we need to continue what we're already doing steady as she goes, while investing in mitigation not just eliminating emissions.
According to @scramble_nl there's only one 🇷🇺 Su-34 whose RF number ends in '90.' That is RF-95890 & it is an M - with improvements in avionics, radar, comms, EW & weapons systems.
Ooh, nice one. That’s the brand new variant, and they don’t have capability to make any more because lots of the upgrades were Ukranian in origin. So much of the Russian Air Force uses Ukranian avionics and military systems.
Looks unlikely anywhere is going to be 40C today if the Sky News report is correct that the hottest place at the moment is 36.7C in Santon Downham, Suffolk.
Bloody Suffolk show offs.
The Met Office has it at 40 in Putney and earlier west of Esher. Most of Surrey is 33-37, though.
Dom Raab radiating heat from his stunning awesoneness?
Well tell him to stop because I'm just west of Esher.
Just stuck my head outside here in sunny Woking. I don't think it's that hot to be honest. Managed to keep the house cool, but downstairs is quite a bit cooler than upstairs now.
We should have listened to the Greens and Al Gore a long time ago.
We did. We've done an absolutely fantastic job.
China didn't, and what we're emitting now is pissing in the ocean compared to them. So we need to continue what we're already doing steady as she goes, while investing in mitigation not just eliminating emissions.
Sri Lanka, of course, was the poster person for green policy....policies straight out of the WEF playbook
Just stuck my head outside here in sunny Woking. I don't think it's that hot to be honest. Managed to keep the house cool, but downstairs is quite a bit cooler than upstairs now.
It should be about 31. Heathrow tops 36 C.
I feel we're missing out down here with only 24 C due to the sea breeze
James Heale @JAHeale · 52m Told that at today’s climate hustings, chaired by Alok Sharma, Kemi Badenoch spoke “powerfully” about how climate change has impacted Nigeria. She confirmed that she is committed to not stripping out Net Zero legislation.
You turn if you want to. The lady is for turning too!
A few days ago Badenoch called Net Zero 'unilateral economic disarmament'
It is unless we really go for the logical next step - Carbon tariffs on imports.
According to @scramble_nl there's only one 🇷🇺 Su-34 whose RF number ends in '90.' That is RF-95890 & it is an M - with improvements in avionics, radar, comms, EW & weapons systems.
Ooh, nice one. That’s the brand new variant, and they don’t have capability to make any more because lots of the upgrades were Ukranian in origin. So much of the Russian Air Force uses Ukranian avionics and military systems.
Lots of Russian missiles use small turbofans from... Ukraine.
According to @scramble_nl there's only one 🇷🇺 Su-34 whose RF number ends in '90.' That is RF-95890 & it is an M - with improvements in avionics, radar, comms, EW & weapons systems.
Looks unlikely anywhere is going to be 40C today if the Sky News report is correct that the hottest place at the moment is 36.7C in Santon Downham, Suffolk.
Bloody Suffolk show offs.
The Met Office has it at 40 in Putney and earlier west of Esher. Most of Surrey is 33-37, though.
Dom Raab radiating heat from his stunning awesoneness?
Well tell him to stop because I'm just west of Esher.
I do hope that the eye-catching temperature readings today are kosher i.e. not taken in full sun. For the record, I have a placed a thermometer outside in the shade, on an upturned shoebox, here in the Midlands and it is currently reading 30.1.
British trains often feel a bit cramped and for a long time I assumed Britain had a narrow gauge and therefore the carriages were narrower.
(As you can see I am not an engineer and know nothing about trains).
Having learned today that Britain is standard gauge, I presume therefore that the privatised operators merely pack the seating more densely.
They do. Longitudinally as well, which is why the origina 125s were much more comfortable, with proper tables at each window spacing.
TIL it is about the loading gauge. But I was right that British trains do tend to be more cramped.
As a useless fact, it's worse on the old Mark-IV coaches used on the ECML with the class 91's (now being replaced by the Azuma). The Mark-IV coaches were designed so that tilting could be added later if necessary, and hence they have an APT-style narrowing profile from sole bar upwards. It'd be interesting to know if any PBers who travelled on them regularly ever noticed...
The tilting Pendelinos also have narrower profiles for the same reason.
The Azuma is a pretty nice train, spent 8 hours on one coming back from the Highlands yesterday, but it's still not as good as the HST/Mk3 coach. In terms of passenger experience I don't think the HST has been bettered.
I've only been on a GWR IET (the same thing as Azuma), but I found the seats awful. How can the DfT get seats so wrong?
I haven't done a long ride in Standard, but have done London to Aberdeen a couple of times in First and had no complaints. There is a serious issue with so many standard class seats on so many trains, and you have already answered your own question - the DfT.
Lets take an open operator as an extreme example - Lumo. Completely free of direct subsidy, it still had to be awarded an operators license and then paths on the route. To get these the DfT placed strict criteria on First group about how many seats were on their trains. First literally had to cram them in or no license.
And we have seen the same with everything from commuter stock to interurban to long distance. I think my favourite are the Thameslink trains. DfT specs a seat which is uncomfortable in the rake and lack of padding, cram them in too closely, and make no provision for seat back tables. These are interurban sets, with people taking longer rides on them.
The seats are completely unsuitable and have provoked massive complains. And yet they can only be altered at huge expense not just because of the physical design, but because of the contract to build them. DfT not interested, only being able to claim x increase in seats matters. Until Michael Green becomes transport secretary and realises there are votes in it. "Newer comfy seats!!!" he proclaims. There isn't a plan or the £cash to actually deliver, but at least someone actually gets it.
So... in the good old days of privatisation, operators ordered their own trains. Some were good, some were less good, but all generally better than what went before. Even the Meridians.
The DfT decided this was wasteful, so they decided to make everyone use a centralised design. Which they decided on. This train design has cr@p seats and is suffering from serious cracking that will take years to fix.
Is this really an argument for *more* centralised control of the railways? If the DfT are mucking things up this badly, how will a centralised GBR do any better - especially if the staff and management just transfer over?
Bit strong to argue that the procurement processess of either the DFT or the operators were any good. The last batch of people to understand how to order trains on mass was BR in the 80s. Generally that generation on stock has been the best ever for passenger comfort, general operating flexibility and reliability. Look at the 2nd gen DMUs. You could couple any 142/143/144/150/156/158/159 unit to another, they all had very similar driving controls so driver conversion is trivial. Mechanically they had a lot in common, simplifying maintenance.
Privatisation meant lots of small orders of incompatible units, some of which were utter duds.
The DFT specified the ultimate unit for every situation, then seemed surprised that the resulting units are poor in pretty much all of them (and are also given to falling to bits as the manufacturers decided to make them out of a completely unsuitable grade of aluminium alloy, but as no one at the DFT knows anything about engineering they didn't ask any of the relevant awkward questions they should have done before signing the contract).
We should have listened to the Greens and Al Gore a long time ago.
We did. We've done an absolutely fantastic job.
China didn't, and what we're emitting now is pissing in the ocean compared to them. So we need to continue what we're already doing steady as she goes, while investing in mitigation not just eliminating emissions.
"China is the world's leading country in electricity production from renewable energy sources, with over triple the generation of the second-ranking country, the United States.[1] China's renewable energy sector is growing faster than its fossil fuels and nuclear power capacity, and is expected to contribute 43 percent of global renewable capacity growth.[2] China's total renewable energy capacity exceeded 1,000GW in 2021, accounting for 43.5 per cent of the country's total power generation capacity, 10.2 percentage points higher than in 2015. The country aims to have 80 per cent of its total energy mix come from non-fossil fuel sources by 2060, and achieve a combined 1,200GW of solar and wind capacity by 2030.[2]"
I've packed up work as the temperature in East Ham reaches 36c and will be a chilly 24c by dawn. Marham and Cambridge both at 37c so the record under serious threat today.
Tomorrow is something different - today's record (if it goes) will go again tomorrow with 41c widely forecast in South Yorkshire and a band of extreme heat down the A1 corridor which clears out slowly tomorrow night and still lingers in East Anglia and the far SE on Wednesday.
We should have listened to the Greens and Al Gore a long time ago.
Good counterfactual this. And not only on climate change. Would he have killed bin laden quicker? Maybe. Because he would not have invaded Iraq. Would he have let China into the WTO? Yes, naughty silly Gore. Much else of note? Probably not.
Would he have been re-elected? Yeah. He’d have ridden the 9/11 wave too. Which probably means no Obama in 2008. And no Tea Party. Instead then we’d have probably got Macain. And then what? The pressures from globalisation would still be there. So perhaps we’d have got that loopy guy, I forget his name now in this heat, that screamed at his rally like a baboon. A leftist-Trump policy wise. He’d have crashed and burned after a term. We’d probably have Romney right now.
OK, here's my current take. It's hard to guesstimate the sequence in which votes will transfer (for example, some Braverman votes might go to Badenoch as an intermediate stage, and it's hard to guess how many). However, I think it's a bit easier to guess where they'll end up.
So, we start from the previous round of Sunak 101, Mordaunt 83, Truss 64, Badenoch 49, Tugendhat 32, Braverman 27. It's hard to see how the last three can be anything other than Sunak/Mordaunt/Truss. So where do the 49+32+27 votes of the to-be-eliminated candidates end up?
The first one is easy. Braverman supporters are all hard-core Brexit nutters: her votes go to Truss, possibly via Badenoch, but they end up at Truss. Truss +27
Secondly, Tugendhat. Well, we know where they're not likely to go, which is to Truss. I think they might end up roughly evenly split between the other two. Mordaunt +16, Sunak +16
What of Badenoch's current 49? It's a mixture of some hardish-core Brexiteers and some just wanting a fresh face, but also some realists. Hard to be sure, but I can see her 49 splitting pretty equally. Let's say Truss +17, Mordaunt +16. Sunak +16
Final tally: Sunak 133, Mordaunt 115, Truss 109.
Of course, there's much guesswork here, but to get Truss into second place is going to require both that she gets a substantially higher share of the current Badenoch 49 than I've assumed, and that Mordaunt doesn't do better than I've assumed in getting Tugendhat and Badenoch transfers.
Or a handful of early Mordaunt supporters deciding that Sunak would be a safer pair of hands.
According to @scramble_nl there's only one 🇷🇺 Su-34 whose RF number ends in '90.' That is RF-95890 & it is an M - with improvements in avionics, radar, comms, EW & weapons systems.
Ooh, nice one. That’s the brand new variant...
IFF seems a a bit shit, though.
{"Sailor" Malan has entered the chat at Barking Creek}
Trevelyan has knifed Mordaunt on LBC. Went AWOL and other ministers had to pick up the pieces, apparently.
I have been fascinated at what appears to be the depth of sheer dislike for Mordaunt. It seems to go beyond genuine policy disagreement and more into a need to take her down and humiliate her. Wonder what the background is to all this.
It is certainly unusual to hear someone's competence questioned like this.
As it stands right now, 18th July I can’t see the membership choosing Truss or Mourdant over Sunak, not even close.
As a betting site, I think we can call it for Sunak now?
How would we describe Sunak’s personality type, he is sort of unconvincing uninspiring isn’t he, and with plenty to attack from period of his chancellorship, it’s hard to imagine him closing in on the Labour poll lead?
Sorry if someone answered this I havn’t found it, but do we know how many members comprise the electorate? Anything between 100,000 and 200,000 is not the most accurate of measurement. Does the Conservative Psrty have a central database - will we even know what turnout was in this election?
I cant see the members choosing Sunak. He's not inspiring enough for them.
I do find it weird they have no central database.
The Conservatives do have a central membership database - it's called Votesource. However there are a lot of legacy memberships from when local associations mostly ran their own affairs, little old ladies paying by cheque as they've done for 45 years etc, and frequently these legacy memberships don't get added to Votesource which makes it difficult to give a precise figure on how many members there are.
AIUI, membership has hovered around 180,000 for some time (with a brief spike to 220,000ish in the aftermath of the 2019 leadership contest, that dribbled out over the course of 2020).
We should have listened to the Greens and Al Gore a long time ago.
Good counterfactual this. And not only on climate change. Would he have killed bin laden quicker? Maybe. Because he would not have invaded Iraq. Would he have let China into the WTO? Yes, naughty silly Gore. Much else of note? Probably not.
Would he have been re-elected? Yeah. He’d have ridden the 9/11 wave too. Which probably means no Obama in 2008. And no Tea Party. Instead then we’d have probably got Macain. And then what? The pressures from globalisation would still be there. So perhaps we’d have got that loopy guy, I forget his name now in this heat, that screamed at his rally like a baboon. A leftist-Trump policy wise. He’d have crashed and burned after a term. We’d probably have Romney right now.
Compared to the alternatives on offer from the US Republicans right now, wouldn’t you take Romney?
Kemi Badenoch has now backed net zero and committed to not stripping away climate commitments at the climate hustings - now all candidates back net zero
Bart gives up?
You talking to me? I've always supported net zero. 😕
I also think the UK is doing a fantastic job at it and we need to concentrate on continuing what we're already doing, not chastise ourselves for not doing it faster.
I also think that almost all global pollution comes from the rest of the world and we should be doing more for mitigation/adaptation and not only talk about prevention which isn't in our hands anyway. Preventing climate change isn't possible, mitigating and minimising it is.
We can't force the rest of the world to act. All we can do is what we do and show leadership to encourage others to follow.
What would be great is if we combined this zeal with what we used to be good at - engineering entrepreneurism. We should be developing and manufacturing the kit that we then export to help other countries hit their targets. As opposed to importing it all like we do now.
OK, here's my current take. It's hard to guesstimate the sequence in which votes will transfer (for example, some Braverman votes might go to Badenoch as an intermediate stage, and it's hard to guess how many). However, I think it's a bit easier to guess where they'll end up.
So, we start from the previous round of Sunak 101, Mordaunt 83, Truss 64, Badenoch 49, Tugendhat 32, Braverman 27. It's hard to see how the last three can be anything other than Sunak/Mordaunt/Truss. So where do the 49+32+27 votes of the to-be-eliminated candidates end up?
The first one is easy. Braverman supporters are all hard-core Brexit nutters: her votes go to Truss, possibly via Badenoch, but they end up at Truss. Truss +27
Secondly, Tugendhat. Well, we know where they're not likely to go, which is to Truss. I think they might end up roughly evenly split between the other two. Mordaunt +16, Sunak +16
What of Badenoch's current 49? It's a mixture of some hardish-core Brexiteers and some just wanting a fresh face, but also some realists. Hard to be sure, but I can see her 49 splitting pretty equally. Let's say Truss +17, Mordaunt +16. Sunak +16
Final tally: Sunak 133, Mordaunt 115, Truss 109.
Of course, there's much guesswork here, but to get Truss into second place is going to require both that she gets a substantially higher share of the current Badenoch 49 than I've assumed, and that Mordaunt doesn't do better than I've assumed in getting Tugendhat and Badenoch transfers.
Or a handful of early Mordaunt supporters deciding that Sunak would be a safer pair of hands.
There’s something moronic about those MPs if they genuinely think an austerity government (led by a tax dodging billionaire) is what’s needed at this moment.
We should have listened to the Greens and Al Gore a long time ago.
Good counterfactual this. And not only on climate change. Would he have killed bin laden quicker? Maybe. Because he would not have invaded Iraq. Would he have let China into the WTO? Yes, naughty silly Gore. Much else of note? Probably not.
Would he have been re-elected? Yeah. He’d have ridden the 9/11 wave too. Which probably means no Obama in 2008. And no Tea Party. Instead then we’d have probably got Macain. And then what? The pressures from globalisation would still be there. So perhaps we’d have got that loopy guy, I forget his name now in this heat, that screamed at his rally like a baboon. A leftist-Trump policy wise. He’d have crashed and burned after a term. We’d probably have Romney right now.
Compared to the alternatives on offer from the US Republicans right now, wouldn’t you take Romney?
Yee ha hell yeah. I got sad a while ago when I checked Romney’s age on wiki and realised he’s not gonna be running.
Travelling to our refuge hotel in the next town to sit out the next couple of days. Have to go back to work tomorrow and won't be able to use the trains to get back and forth because the entire service has been axed for Tuesday. They're obviously in a real panic about the tracks and the overhead lines. Mercifully I can get a lift.
Train is nice and comfy but it's already really quite hot out. This afternoon promises to be like something from the infernal regions. Grim.
As I understand it the Network Rail engineers have serious concerns and for good reasons. Two problem areas: 1 Rails. Much of our main lines uses Continuous Welded Rail - which is what it sounds like. These are pre-stressed to a set temperature and can expand and contract within the defined boundaries. Which covers us for the usual broad temperature ranges we get. The problem is that with the mid 30s+ forecast this pushes rail temps into the danger zone. Rails will buckle sideways if they can't expand any further, which is Bad. 2 Wires. Much of the overhead line equipment is fitted with tensioner weights at the end of the run. These allow the wires to expand and contract within reason - and yup, temperatures are forecast outside of that. Different routes have different kit, and no surprise that the done on the cheap to save Tory tax East Coast is one of the worst hit, with no trains running south of York tomorrow.
Cue the usual whines about other countries managing. Well they do, and they don't. Restrictions in place in Spain AIUI, and they tension rails for a different range of temps that don't have the extremes that we do...
Italy paints her rails white to reduce the buckling problem.
Sweden has serious rail disruption every summer due to buckled track, but mostly on smaller, rural sections which haven’t been renovated for over 10 years. Newer track rarely has the issue.
( from earlier: Another Swedish heat trick is building living space underground. Villas traditionally have gillestugor: a living room built underground. Often in bedrock. Deliciously cool even in the most ferocious continental heatwave.
Rather nice photo here showing what happens if the heat comes halfway through the job of renewing track ...
We should have listened to the Greens and Al Gore a long time ago.
Good counterfactual this. And not only on climate change. Would he have killed bin laden quicker? Maybe. Because he would not have invaded Iraq. Would he have let China into the WTO? Yes, naughty silly Gore. Much else of note? Probably not.
Would he have been re-elected? Yeah. He’d have ridden the 9/11 wave too. Which probably means no Obama in 2008. And no Tea Party. Instead then we’d have probably got Macain. And then what? The pressures from globalisation would still be there. So perhaps we’d have got that loopy guy, I forget his name now in this heat, that screamed at his rally like a baboon. A leftist-Trump policy wise. He’d have crashed and burned after a term. We’d probably have Romney right now.
Compared to the alternatives on offer from the US Republicans right now, wouldn’t you take Romney?
Yee ha hell yeah. I got sad a while ago when I checked Romney’s age on wiki and realised he’s not gonna be running.
In the real world, its just a month now until Liz Cheney is hammered in the Wyoming primary by whatever candidate Trump has backed.
Kemi Badenoch has now backed net zero and committed to not stripping away climate commitments at the climate hustings - now all candidates back net zero
Bart gives up?
You talking to me? I've always supported net zero. 😕
I also think the UK is doing a fantastic job at it and we need to concentrate on continuing what we're already doing, not chastise ourselves for not doing it faster.
I also think that almost all global pollution comes from the rest of the world and we should be doing more for mitigation/adaptation and not only talk about prevention which isn't in our hands anyway. Preventing climate change isn't possible, mitigating and minimising it is.
We can't force the rest of the world to act. All we can do is what we do and show leadership to encourage others to follow.
What would be great is if we combined this zeal with what we used to be good at - engineering entrepreneurism. We should be developing and manufacturing the kit that we then export to help other countries hit their targets. As opposed to importing it all like we do now.
Carbon tax on imports, matching carbon tax on UK made equivelents.
Kemi Badenoch has now backed net zero and committed to not stripping away climate commitments at the climate hustings - now all candidates back net zero
Bart gives up?
You talking to me? I've always supported net zero. 😕
I also think the UK is doing a fantastic job at it and we need to concentrate on continuing what we're already doing, not chastise ourselves for not doing it faster.
I also think that almost all global pollution comes from the rest of the world and we should be doing more for mitigation/adaptation and not only talk about prevention which isn't in our hands anyway. Preventing climate change isn't possible, mitigating and minimising it is.
We can't force the rest of the world to act. All we can do is what we do and show leadership to encourage others to follow.
What would be great is if we combined this zeal with what we used to be good at - engineering entrepreneurism. We should be developing and manufacturing the kit that we then export to help other countries hit their targets. As opposed to importing it all like we do now.
Sri Lanka showed that 'leadership' by going to organic farming. The green lobby hailed them.
Their economy and government collapsed totally in short order.
What sort of example did that send to other developing countries?
We should have listened to the Greens and Al Gore a long time ago.
We did. We've done an absolutely fantastic job.
China didn't, and what we're emitting now is pissing in the ocean compared to them. So we need to continue what we're already doing steady as she goes, while investing in mitigation not just eliminating emissions.
"China is the world's leading country in electricity production from renewable energy sources, with over triple the generation of the second-ranking country, the United States.[1] China's renewable energy sector is growing faster than its fossil fuels and nuclear power capacity, and is expected to contribute 43 percent of global renewable capacity growth.[2] China's total renewable energy capacity exceeded 1,000GW in 2021, accounting for 43.5 per cent of the country's total power generation capacity, 10.2 percentage points higher than in 2015. The country aims to have 80 per cent of its total energy mix come from non-fossil fuel sources by 2060, and achieve a combined 1,200GW of solar and wind capacity by 2030.[2]"
China is very big. If China does a less than fantastic job, they can still be the "world's leading country in electricity production from renewable energy sources" while underperforming on the proportion of their electricity production being from renewable energy sources.
Hospital ice lollies being distributed as I type. Just what the Doctor ordered!
Many many years ago when the world was very different I worked at Southend hospital pharmacy. (Vacation job). We made lollies in the microbiology fridge as the weather was very warm indeed. All the junior nurses came out in boils! 1959 if memory serves.
And in the Colchester area it has hit 35°C!
How teasingly ambiguous you are!
Did the boils relate to the lollies or were the lollies the treatment?
IIRC the use of the microbiology fridge was blamed for the boils! Two or three people in the then embryonic department were very firmly told to stop!
I do hope that the eye-catching temperature readings today are kosher i.e. not taken in full sun. For the record, I have a placed a thermometer outside in the shade, on an upturned shoebox, here in the Midlands and it is currently reading 30.1.
The latest Met observation near me was 31 at 2pm.
It is still 28 in my living room.
I'm reading 32.3 now
I have a feck of a lot of insulation in the walls after a rebuild a few years ago. I think that is helping today.
I do hope that the eye-catching temperature readings today are kosher i.e. not taken in full sun. For the record, I have a placed a thermometer outside in the shade, on an upturned shoebox, here in the Midlands and it is currently reading 30.1.
The latest Met observation near me was 31 at 2pm.
It is still 28 in my living room.
I'm reading 32.3 now
I have a feck of a lot of insulation in the walls after a rebuild a few years ago. I think that is helping today.
I'm talking outdoors in the shade - thermo on a shoebox.
Kemi Badenoch has now backed net zero and committed to not stripping away climate commitments at the climate hustings - now all candidates back net zero
Bart gives up?
You talking to me? I've always supported net zero. 😕
I also think the UK is doing a fantastic job at it and we need to concentrate on continuing what we're already doing, not chastise ourselves for not doing it faster.
I also think that almost all global pollution comes from the rest of the world and we should be doing more for mitigation/adaptation and not only talk about prevention which isn't in our hands anyway. Preventing climate change isn't possible, mitigating and minimising it is.
We can't force the rest of the world to act. All we can do is what we do and show leadership to encourage others to follow.
What would be great is if we combined this zeal with what we used to be good at - engineering entrepreneurism. We should be developing and manufacturing the kit that we then export to help other countries hit their targets. As opposed to importing it all like we do now.
Carbon tax on imports, matching carbon tax on UK made equivelents.
That would pass WTO, I think.
We all want to reduce emissions, but its surely clear that government diktat driven hard targets for Net Zero are catastrophe waiting to happen.
Actually, not waiting to happen. Starting to happen.
Kemi Badenoch has now backed net zero and committed to not stripping away climate commitments at the climate hustings - now all candidates back net zero
Bart gives up?
You talking to me? I've always supported net zero. 😕
I also think the UK is doing a fantastic job at it and we need to concentrate on continuing what we're already doing, not chastise ourselves for not doing it faster.
I also think that almost all global pollution comes from the rest of the world and we should be doing more for mitigation/adaptation and not only talk about prevention which isn't in our hands anyway. Preventing climate change isn't possible, mitigating and minimising it is.
We can't force the rest of the world to act. All we can do is what we do and show leadership to encourage others to follow.
What would be great is if we combined this zeal with what we used to be good at - engineering entrepreneurism. We should be developing and manufacturing the kit that we then export to help other countries hit their targets. As opposed to importing it all like we do now.
Sri Lanka showed that 'leadership' by going to organic farming. The green lobby hailed them.
Their economy and government collapsed totally in short order.
What sort of example did that send to other developing countries?
So, a summary of recent threads. Treasury civil servants are crap at long term planning. DoE civil servants are even crapper at running education. DfT civil servants are crapper still at managing the railways. The common themes - Public School educated Cowley Tech graduates, London based, and not specialists in their area of employment. Solution - employ comprehensive educated specialists and move their jobs away from London.
We should have listened to the Greens and Al Gore a long time ago.
We did. We've done an absolutely fantastic job.
China didn't, and what we're emitting now is pissing in the ocean compared to them. So we need to continue what we're already doing steady as she goes, while investing in mitigation not just eliminating emissions.
"China is the world's leading country in electricity production from renewable energy sources, with over triple the generation of the second-ranking country, the United States.[1] China's renewable energy sector is growing faster than its fossil fuels and nuclear power capacity, and is expected to contribute 43 percent of global renewable capacity growth.[2] China's total renewable energy capacity exceeded 1,000GW in 2021, accounting for 43.5 per cent of the country's total power generation capacity, 10.2 percentage points higher than in 2015. The country aims to have 80 per cent of its total energy mix come from non-fossil fuel sources by 2060, and achieve a combined 1,200GW of solar and wind capacity by 2030.[2]"
China is very big. If China does a less than fantastic job, they can still be the "world's leading country in electricity production from renewable energy sources" while underperforming on the proportion of their electricity production being from renewable energy sources.
True, but did you read "China's total renewable energy capacity exceeded 1,000GW in 2021, accounting for 43.5 per cent of the country's total power generation capacity, 10.2 percentage points higher than in 2015".
Kemi Badenoch has now backed net zero and committed to not stripping away climate commitments at the climate hustings - now all candidates back net zero
Bart gives up?
You talking to me? I've always supported net zero. 😕
I also think the UK is doing a fantastic job at it and we need to concentrate on continuing what we're already doing, not chastise ourselves for not doing it faster.
I also think that almost all global pollution comes from the rest of the world and we should be doing more for mitigation/adaptation and not only talk about prevention which isn't in our hands anyway. Preventing climate change isn't possible, mitigating and minimising it is.
We can't force the rest of the world to act. All we can do is what we do and show leadership to encourage others to follow.
What would be great is if we combined this zeal with what we used to be good at - engineering entrepreneurism. We should be developing and manufacturing the kit that we then export to help other countries hit their targets. As opposed to importing it all like we do now.
Carbon tax on imports, matching carbon tax on UK made equivelents.
That would pass WTO, I think.
We all want to reduce emissions, but its surely clear that government diktat driven hard targets for Net Zero are catastrophe waiting to happen.
Actually, not waiting to happen. Starting to happen.
Ah, so the way to deal with rising fossil fuel prices is to increase dependency on fossil fuels?
Kemi Badenoch has now backed net zero and committed to not stripping away climate commitments at the climate hustings - now all candidates back net zero
Bart gives up?
You talking to me? I've always supported net zero. 😕
I also think the UK is doing a fantastic job at it and we need to concentrate on continuing what we're already doing, not chastise ourselves for not doing it faster.
I also think that almost all global pollution comes from the rest of the world and we should be doing more for mitigation/adaptation and not only talk about prevention which isn't in our hands anyway. Preventing climate change isn't possible, mitigating and minimising it is.
We can't force the rest of the world to act. All we can do is what we do and show leadership to encourage others to follow.
What would be great is if we combined this zeal with what we used to be good at - engineering entrepreneurism. We should be developing and manufacturing the kit that we then export to help other countries hit their targets. As opposed to importing it all like we do now.
Carbon tax on imports, matching carbon tax on UK made equivelents.
That would pass WTO, I think.
We all want to reduce emissions, but its surely clear that government diktat driven hard targets for Net Zero are catastrophe waiting to happen.
Actually, not waiting to happen. Starting to happen.
No. That's not clear to me. The *real* catastrophe would be not driving hard targets.
We should have listened to the Greens and Al Gore a long time ago.
Good counterfactual this. And not only on climate change. Would he have killed bin laden quicker? Maybe. Because he would not have invaded Iraq. Would he have let China into the WTO? Yes, naughty silly Gore. Much else of note? Probably not.
Would he have been re-elected? Yeah. He’d have ridden the 9/11 wave too. Which probably means no Obama in 2008. And no Tea Party. Instead then we’d have probably got Macain. And then what? The pressures from globalisation would still be there. So perhaps we’d have got that loopy guy, I forget his name now in this heat, that screamed at his rally like a baboon. A leftist-Trump policy wise. He’d have crashed and burned after a term. We’d probably have Romney right now.
Compared to the alternatives on offer from the US Republicans right now, wouldn’t you take Romney?
Yee ha hell yeah. I got sad a while ago when I checked Romney’s age on wiki and realised he’s not gonna be running.
Only 75. Four or eight years time he'll be in with a chance.
Just stuck my head outside here in sunny Woking. I don't think it's that hot to be honest. Managed to keep the house cool, but downstairs is quite a bit cooler than upstairs now.
It should be about 31. Heathrow tops 36 C.
I feel we're missing out down here with only 24 C due to the sea breeze
Does everyone live 'here' and expect everyone else to know/remember where they all are?
By tomorrow's forecast, England will be in the hottest 1.2% of the world
Indeed but one area even hotter than England will be in the central USA where portions of Kansas will be looking at 115-120f (46-49c) and it's not just a 24 hour thing. Large parts of the continental USA will see temperatures above 100f for the rest of the month. Not so unusual in Arizona, Nevada and parts of California but what about North Dakota?
Kemi Badenoch has now backed net zero and committed to not stripping away climate commitments at the climate hustings - now all candidates back net zero
Bart gives up?
You talking to me? I've always supported net zero. 😕
I also think the UK is doing a fantastic job at it and we need to concentrate on continuing what we're already doing, not chastise ourselves for not doing it faster.
I also think that almost all global pollution comes from the rest of the world and we should be doing more for mitigation/adaptation and not only talk about prevention which isn't in our hands anyway. Preventing climate change isn't possible, mitigating and minimising it is.
We can't force the rest of the world to act. All we can do is what we do and show leadership to encourage others to follow.
What would be great is if we combined this zeal with what we used to be good at - engineering entrepreneurism. We should be developing and manufacturing the kit that we then export to help other countries hit their targets. As opposed to importing it all like we do now.
Carbon tax on imports, matching carbon tax on UK made equivelents.
That would pass WTO, I think.
We all want to reduce emissions, but its surely clear that government diktat driven hard targets for Net Zero are catastrophe waiting to happen.
Actually, not waiting to happen. Starting to happen.
No. That's not clear to me. The *real* catastrophe would be not driving hard targets.
Plus we get to do fun things.
For example Orion style pulsed thermonuclear reactors.
"Country X, in my country we generate electricity by setting off a nuclear weapon every sixty seconds. Come on, if you are hard enough."
Hospital ice lollies being distributed as I type. Just what the Doctor ordered!
Many many years ago when the world was very different I worked at Southend hospital pharmacy. (Vacation job). We made lollies in the microbiology fridge as the weather was very warm indeed. All the junior nurses came out in boils! 1959 if memory serves.
And in the Colchester area it has hit 35°C!
How teasingly ambiguous you are!
Did the boils relate to the lollies or were the lollies the treatment?
IIRC the use of the microbiology fridge was blamed for the boils! Two or three people in the then embryonic department were very firmly told to stop!
Now you're confusing us further! Was it the microbiology fridge? Or freezer?! And why did the people in the embryonic department get told off? Were they using the microbiology department fridge/freezer to make the lollies? And why 'then embryonic' - what did it turn into, the foetal department?
I fear a tissue of lies and I plan to lance this boil before the contagion spreads!
China backsliding on coal? "SHANGHAI, Feb 24 (Reuters) - China started building 33 gigawatts of new coal-fired power generation capacity last year, the most since 2016, research published on Thursday showed, a sign the country is falling back on fossil fuels as economic worries mount.
We should have listened to the Greens and Al Gore a long time ago.
Good counterfactual this. And not only on climate change. Would he have killed bin laden quicker? Maybe. Because he would not have invaded Iraq. Would he have let China into the WTO? Yes, naughty silly Gore. Much else of note? Probably not.
Would he have been re-elected? Yeah. He’d have ridden the 9/11 wave too. Which probably means no Obama in 2008. And no Tea Party. Instead then we’d have probably got Macain. And then what? The pressures from globalisation would still be there. So perhaps we’d have got that loopy guy, I forget his name now in this heat, that screamed at his rally like a baboon. A leftist-Trump policy wise. He’d have crashed and burned after a term. We’d probably have Romney right now.
Compared to the alternatives on offer from the US Republicans right now, wouldn’t you take Romney?
Yee ha hell yeah. I got sad a while ago when I checked Romney’s age on wiki and realised he’s not gonna be running.
In the real world, its just a month now until Liz Cheney is hammered in the Wyoming primary by whatever candidate Trump has backed.
That's true, but wouldn't it be great if she ran as an Independent for President, which she hasn't ruled out. A sure fire way to sink Trump.
Am I the only one listening to chilled beats while squeezed into the paddling pool, with the ice in my wine glass clinking peacefully? Lots of drama over nothing so far this.
Kemi Badenoch has now backed net zero and committed to not stripping away climate commitments at the climate hustings - now all candidates back net zero
Bart gives up?
You talking to me? I've always supported net zero. 😕
I also think the UK is doing a fantastic job at it and we need to concentrate on continuing what we're already doing, not chastise ourselves for not doing it faster.
I also think that almost all global pollution comes from the rest of the world and we should be doing more for mitigation/adaptation and not only talk about prevention which isn't in our hands anyway. Preventing climate change isn't possible, mitigating and minimising it is.
We can't force the rest of the world to act. All we can do is what we do and show leadership to encourage others to follow.
What would be great is if we combined this zeal with what we used to be good at - engineering entrepreneurism. We should be developing and manufacturing the kit that we then export to help other countries hit their targets. As opposed to importing it all like we do now.
Carbon tax on imports, matching carbon tax on UK made equivelents.
That would pass WTO, I think.
We all want to reduce emissions, but its surely clear that government diktat driven hard targets for Net Zero are catastrophe waiting to happen.
Actually, not waiting to happen. Starting to happen.
Ah, so the way to deal with rising fossil fuel prices is to increase dependency on fossil fuels?
The way to deal with fossil fuel overuse is either produce better alternatives or stop using what we have and force billions back to the middle ages.
Hospital ice lollies being distributed as I type. Just what the Doctor ordered!
Many many years ago when the world was very different I worked at Southend hospital pharmacy. (Vacation job). We made lollies in the microbiology fridge as the weather was very warm indeed. All the junior nurses came out in boils! 1959 if memory serves.
And in the Colchester area it has hit 35°C!
How teasingly ambiguous you are!
Did the boils relate to the lollies or were the lollies the treatment?
IIRC the use of the microbiology fridge was blamed for the boils! Two or three people in the then embryonic department were very firmly told to stop!
The Royal Navy in the postwar years could be an uncomfortable life out East (not just Essex) when most of its ships were built for the North Atlantic rather than the Med and East of Suez. Boils could be a problem for them though perhaps because of vitamin depletion as much as anything else - but there were things called prickly heat and dhobi itch, esepcially in the crotch and armpits - the latter being from poorly rinsed skin or clothes.
I wonder if the food in the nurses' home was quite up to scratch in those days of overcooked cabbage?
Kemi Badenoch has now backed net zero and committed to not stripping away climate commitments at the climate hustings - now all candidates back net zero
Bart gives up?
You talking to me? I've always supported net zero. 😕
I also think the UK is doing a fantastic job at it and we need to concentrate on continuing what we're already doing, not chastise ourselves for not doing it faster.
I also think that almost all global pollution comes from the rest of the world and we should be doing more for mitigation/adaptation and not only talk about prevention which isn't in our hands anyway. Preventing climate change isn't possible, mitigating and minimising it is.
We can't force the rest of the world to act. All we can do is what we do and show leadership to encourage others to follow.
What would be great is if we combined this zeal with what we used to be good at - engineering entrepreneurism. We should be developing and manufacturing the kit that we then export to help other countries hit their targets. As opposed to importing it all like we do now.
Carbon tax on imports, matching carbon tax on UK made equivelents.
That would pass WTO, I think.
We all want to reduce emissions, but its surely clear that government diktat driven hard targets for Net Zero are catastrophe waiting to happen.
Actually, not waiting to happen. Starting to happen.
No. That's not clear to me. The *real* catastrophe would be not driving hard targets.
Look at the data on coal fired power stations being built around the world, and then reflect on that statement.
James Heale @JAHeale · 52m Told that at today’s climate hustings, chaired by Alok Sharma, Kemi Badenoch spoke “powerfully” about how climate change has impacted Nigeria. She confirmed that she is committed to not stripping out Net Zero legislation.
You turn if you want to. The lady is for turning too!
A few days ago Badenoch called Net Zero 'unilateral economic disarmament'
It is unless we really go for the logical next step - Carbon tariffs on imports.
Yes, inflation isn't high enough right now. Let's make things even more expensive.
Kemi Badenoch has now backed net zero and committed to not stripping away climate commitments at the climate hustings - now all candidates back net zero
Bart gives up?
You talking to me? I've always supported net zero. 😕
I also think the UK is doing a fantastic job at it and we need to concentrate on continuing what we're already doing, not chastise ourselves for not doing it faster.
I also think that almost all global pollution comes from the rest of the world and we should be doing more for mitigation/adaptation and not only talk about prevention which isn't in our hands anyway. Preventing climate change isn't possible, mitigating and minimising it is.
We can't force the rest of the world to act. All we can do is what we do and show leadership to encourage others to follow.
What would be great is if we combined this zeal with what we used to be good at - engineering entrepreneurism. We should be developing and manufacturing the kit that we then export to help other countries hit their targets. As opposed to importing it all like we do now.
Sri Lanka showed that 'leadership' by going to organic farming. The green lobby hailed them.
Their economy and government collapsed totally in short order.
What sort of example did that send to other developing countries?
Organic farming ≠ reducing carbon emissions
There is a shit load of CO2 emissions associated with nitrogen fertiliser production.
We should have listened to the Greens and Al Gore a long time ago.
Good counterfactual this. And not only on climate change. Would he have killed bin laden quicker? Maybe. Because he would not have invaded Iraq. Would he have let China into the WTO? Yes, naughty silly Gore. Much else of note? Probably not.
Would he have been re-elected? Yeah. He’d have ridden the 9/11 wave too. Which probably means no Obama in 2008. And no Tea Party. Instead then we’d have probably got Macain. And then what? The pressures from globalisation would still be there. So perhaps we’d have got that loopy guy, I forget his name now in this heat, that screamed at his rally like a baboon. A leftist-Trump policy wise. He’d have crashed and burned after a term. We’d probably have Romney right now.
Compared to the alternatives on offer from the US Republicans right now, wouldn’t you take Romney?
Yee ha hell yeah. I got sad a while ago when I checked Romney’s age on wiki and realised he’s not gonna be running.
Only 75. Four or eight years time he'll be in with a chance.
It does seem odd to me that no one in America has organised an Infiltrate GOP movement. There’s got to be 5-10 million Democrats or swing voters that you could persuade in a heart beat to sign up and vote against him in the primaries.
So, a summary of recent threads. Treasury civil servants are crap at long term planning. DoE civil servants are even crapper at running education. DfT civil servants are crapper still at managing the railways. The common themes - Public School educated Cowley Tech graduates, London based, and not specialists in their area of employment. Solution - employ comprehensive educated specialists and move their jobs away from London.
You may have a point. A related point is whether we would be better to have more of a distinction between legislature and executive. Many ministerial posts would be better filled by specialist outsiders temporarily in the Lords for accountability.
So, a summary of recent threads. Treasury civil servants are crap at long term planning. DoE civil servants are even crapper at running education. DfT civil servants are crapper still at managing the railways. The common themes - Public School educated Cowley Tech graduates, London based, and not specialists in their area of employment. Solution - employ comprehensive educated specialists and move their jobs away from London.
Errr no. I think you will find plenty of people trained in the sciences at even Oxford and Cambridge. The problem is the belief that lawyers and accountants have some superior generalist knowledge.
The solution is simple. Provide shade for the Appian Way. A lot of shade.
Just stuck my head outside here in sunny Woking. I don't think it's that hot to be honest. Managed to keep the house cool, but downstairs is quite a bit cooler than upstairs now.
It should be about 31. Heathrow tops 36 C.
I feel we're missing out down here with only 24 C due to the sea breeze
Does everyone live 'here' and expect everyone else to know/remember where they all are?
Kemi Badenoch has now backed net zero and committed to not stripping away climate commitments at the climate hustings - now all candidates back net zero
Bart gives up?
You talking to me? I've always supported net zero. 😕
I also think the UK is doing a fantastic job at it and we need to concentrate on continuing what we're already doing, not chastise ourselves for not doing it faster.
I also think that almost all global pollution comes from the rest of the world and we should be doing more for mitigation/adaptation and not only talk about prevention which isn't in our hands anyway. Preventing climate change isn't possible, mitigating and minimising it is.
We can't force the rest of the world to act. All we can do is what we do and show leadership to encourage others to follow.
What would be great is if we combined this zeal with what we used to be good at - engineering entrepreneurism. We should be developing and manufacturing the kit that we then export to help other countries hit their targets. As opposed to importing it all like we do now.
Sri Lanka showed that 'leadership' by going to organic farming. The green lobby hailed them.
Their economy and government collapsed totally in short order.
What sort of example did that send to other developing countries?
China backsliding on coal? "SHANGHAI, Feb 24 (Reuters) - China started building 33 gigawatts of new coal-fired power generation capacity last year, the most since 2016, research published on Thursday showed, a sign the country is falling back on fossil fuels as economic worries mount.
If China is backsliding on coal that is indeed a bad thing. I hope that everyone is open to looking at the facts, criticism and praise where it is due.
Kemi Badenoch has now backed net zero and committed to not stripping away climate commitments at the climate hustings - now all candidates back net zero
Bart gives up?
You talking to me? I've always supported net zero. 😕
I also think the UK is doing a fantastic job at it and we need to concentrate on continuing what we're already doing, not chastise ourselves for not doing it faster.
I also think that almost all global pollution comes from the rest of the world and we should be doing more for mitigation/adaptation and not only talk about prevention which isn't in our hands anyway. Preventing climate change isn't possible, mitigating and minimising it is.
We can't force the rest of the world to act. All we can do is what we do and show leadership to encourage others to follow.
What would be great is if we combined this zeal with what we used to be good at - engineering entrepreneurism. We should be developing and manufacturing the kit that we then export to help other countries hit their targets. As opposed to importing it all like we do now.
Carbon tax on imports, matching carbon tax on UK made equivelents.
That would pass WTO, I think.
We all want to reduce emissions, but its surely clear that government diktat driven hard targets for Net Zero are catastrophe waiting to happen.
Actually, not waiting to happen. Starting to happen.
Ah, so the way to deal with rising fossil fuel prices is to increase dependency on fossil fuels?
The way to deal with fossil fuel overuse is either produce better alternatives or stop using what we have and force billions back to the middle ages.
Sri Lanka chose B.
Sri Lanka banned imports of chemical fertilizer because it had run out of foreign currency to pay for it. What does that have to do with fossil fuels?
Kemi Badenoch has now backed net zero and committed to not stripping away climate commitments at the climate hustings - now all candidates back net zero
Bart gives up?
You talking to me? I've always supported net zero. 😕
I also think the UK is doing a fantastic job at it and we need to concentrate on continuing what we're already doing, not chastise ourselves for not doing it faster.
I also think that almost all global pollution comes from the rest of the world and we should be doing more for mitigation/adaptation and not only talk about prevention which isn't in our hands anyway. Preventing climate change isn't possible, mitigating and minimising it is.
We can't force the rest of the world to act. All we can do is what we do and show leadership to encourage others to follow.
What would be great is if we combined this zeal with what we used to be good at - engineering entrepreneurism. We should be developing and manufacturing the kit that we then export to help other countries hit their targets. As opposed to importing it all like we do now.
Carbon tax on imports, matching carbon tax on UK made equivelents.
That would pass WTO, I think.
We all want to reduce emissions, but its surely clear that government diktat driven hard targets for Net Zero are catastrophe waiting to happen.
Actually, not waiting to happen. Starting to happen.
No. That's not clear to me. The *real* catastrophe would be not driving hard targets.
Look at the data on coal fired power stations being built around the world, and then reflect on that statement.
TLDR: Growing, but rate of growth slowing (actually a drop in generation in 2019, but I wouldn't read too much into one year). What's interesting is the drop in load factor.
Kemi Badenoch has now backed net zero and committed to not stripping away climate commitments at the climate hustings - now all candidates back net zero
Bart gives up?
You talking to me? I've always supported net zero. 😕
I also think the UK is doing a fantastic job at it and we need to concentrate on continuing what we're already doing, not chastise ourselves for not doing it faster.
I also think that almost all global pollution comes from the rest of the world and we should be doing more for mitigation/adaptation and not only talk about prevention which isn't in our hands anyway. Preventing climate change isn't possible, mitigating and minimising it is.
We can't force the rest of the world to act. All we can do is what we do and show leadership to encourage others to follow.
What would be great is if we combined this zeal with what we used to be good at - engineering entrepreneurism. We should be developing and manufacturing the kit that we then export to help other countries hit their targets. As opposed to importing it all like we do now.
Carbon tax on imports, matching carbon tax on UK made equivelents.
That would pass WTO, I think.
We all want to reduce emissions, but its surely clear that government diktat driven hard targets for Net Zero are catastrophe waiting to happen.
Actually, not waiting to happen. Starting to happen.
No. That's not clear to me. The *real* catastrophe would be not driving hard targets.
Look at the data on coal fired power stations being built around the world, and then reflect on that statement.
Look around the world at the number of coal stations being retired.
Kemi Badenoch has now backed net zero and committed to not stripping away climate commitments at the climate hustings - now all candidates back net zero
Bart gives up?
You talking to me? I've always supported net zero. 😕
I also think the UK is doing a fantastic job at it and we need to concentrate on continuing what we're already doing, not chastise ourselves for not doing it faster.
I also think that almost all global pollution comes from the rest of the world and we should be doing more for mitigation/adaptation and not only talk about prevention which isn't in our hands anyway. Preventing climate change isn't possible, mitigating and minimising it is.
We can't force the rest of the world to act. All we can do is what we do and show leadership to encourage others to follow.
What would be great is if we combined this zeal with what we used to be good at - engineering entrepreneurism. We should be developing and manufacturing the kit that we then export to help other countries hit their targets. As opposed to importing it all like we do now.
Carbon tax on imports, matching carbon tax on UK made equivelents.
That would pass WTO, I think.
We all want to reduce emissions, but its surely clear that government diktat driven hard targets for Net Zero are catastrophe waiting to happen.
Actually, not waiting to happen. Starting to happen.
Ah, so the way to deal with rising fossil fuel prices is to increase dependency on fossil fuels?
The way to deal with fossil fuel overuse is either produce better alternatives or stop using what we have and force billions back to the middle ages.
Sri Lanka chose B.
Sri Lanka banned imports of chemical fertilizer because it had run out of foreign currency to pay for it. What does that have to do with fossil fuels?
Well, it is made from and then transported by fossil fuels. So, not nothing.
Kemi Badenoch has now backed net zero and committed to not stripping away climate commitments at the climate hustings - now all candidates back net zero
Bart gives up?
You talking to me? I've always supported net zero. 😕
I also think the UK is doing a fantastic job at it and we need to concentrate on continuing what we're already doing, not chastise ourselves for not doing it faster.
I also think that almost all global pollution comes from the rest of the world and we should be doing more for mitigation/adaptation and not only talk about prevention which isn't in our hands anyway. Preventing climate change isn't possible, mitigating and minimising it is.
We can't force the rest of the world to act. All we can do is what we do and show leadership to encourage others to follow.
What would be great is if we combined this zeal with what we used to be good at - engineering entrepreneurism. We should be developing and manufacturing the kit that we then export to help other countries hit their targets. As opposed to importing it all like we do now.
Carbon tax on imports, matching carbon tax on UK made equivelents.
That would pass WTO, I think.
We all want to reduce emissions, but its surely clear that government diktat driven hard targets for Net Zero are catastrophe waiting to happen.
Actually, not waiting to happen. Starting to happen.
Ah, so the way to deal with rising fossil fuel prices is to increase dependency on fossil fuels?
The way to deal with fossil fuel overuse is either produce better alternatives or stop using what we have and force billions back to the middle ages.
Sri Lanka chose B.
Sri Lanka banned imports of chemical fertilizer because it had run out of foreign currency to pay for it. What does that have to do with fossil fuels?
No it banned imports of chemical fertilizer because of green dogma.
It then ran out of foreign currency paying for the food imports it needed after yields of rice and the vital tea crop collapsed because of organic farming.
So, a summary of recent threads. Treasury civil servants are crap at long term planning. DoE civil servants are even crapper at running education. DfT civil servants are crapper still at managing the railways. The common themes - Public School educated Cowley Tech graduates, London based, and not specialists in their area of employment. Solution - employ comprehensive educated specialists and move their jobs away from London.
Maybe if we cleared out the Cowley Tech politicians it could set an example for the Civil Service First Division.
We should have listened to the Greens and Al Gore a long time ago.
We did. We've done an absolutely fantastic job.
China didn't, and what we're emitting now is pissing in the ocean compared to them. So we need to continue what we're already doing steady as she goes, while investing in mitigation not just eliminating emissions.
"China is the world's leading country in electricity production from renewable energy sources, with over triple the generation of the second-ranking country, the United States.[1] China's renewable energy sector is growing faster than its fossil fuels and nuclear power capacity, and is expected to contribute 43 percent of global renewable capacity growth.[2] China's total renewable energy capacity exceeded 1,000GW in 2021, accounting for 43.5 per cent of the country's total power generation capacity, 10.2 percentage points higher than in 2015. The country aims to have 80 per cent of its total energy mix come from non-fossil fuel sources by 2060, and achieve a combined 1,200GW of solar and wind capacity by 2030.[2]"
China is very big. If China does a less than fantastic job, they can still be the "world's leading country in electricity production from renewable energy sources" while underperforming on the proportion of their electricity production being from renewable energy sources.
True, but did you read "China's total renewable energy capacity exceeded 1,000GW in 2021, accounting for 43.5 per cent of the country's total power generation capacity, 10.2 percentage points higher than in 2015".
There are a number of different metrics depending on what you're counting, but https://yearbook.enerdata.net/renewables/renewable-in-electricity-production-share.html offers some comparative figures. The top ten are Norway, New Zealand, Brazil, Colombia, Canada, Sweden, Portugal, Chile, Spain, Romania, Germany, Italy. UK not too far behind. China some way behind.
Hospital ice lollies being distributed as I type. Just what the Doctor ordered!
Many many years ago when the world was very different I worked at Southend hospital pharmacy. (Vacation job). We made lollies in the microbiology fridge as the weather was very warm indeed. All the junior nurses came out in boils! 1959 if memory serves.
And in the Colchester area it has hit 35°C!
How teasingly ambiguous you are!
Did the boils relate to the lollies or were the lollies the treatment?
IIRC the use of the microbiology fridge was blamed for the boils! Two or three people in the then embryonic department were very firmly told to stop!
Now you're confusing us further! Was it the microbiology fridge? Or freezer?! And why did the people in the embryonic department get told off? Were they using the microbiology department fridge/freezer to make the lollies? And why 'then embryonic' - what did it turn into, the foetal department?
I fear a tissue of lies and I plan to lance this boil before the contagion spreads!
LOL. In an endeavour for clarity: 1. it was a long time ago as I said 1959. Many of my readers were not born then! My memory may well be imperfect. 2. Microbiology in hospital pharmacy was very, very new. However careful investigation suggested that there was cross contamination of samples in the microbiology fridge with the lollies, which led to the outbreak of boils among the junior nurses!
It was a shame, because my vacation student colleague John and myself rather liked 16-17-year-old nurses calling frequently at the pharmacy department!
Comments
I think the issue might with the Badenoch voters. There are a fair few Red Wallers in there. For me, the least appealing candidate of the three to them is Sunak given he clearly wants to rein in spending. Truss might end up getting a few more than Sunak for that reason.
Which would leave it very tight.
I was looking forward to that.
Truss 64 + 27 + 17 = 108 not 107
Mordaunt 83 + 16 + 16 = 115 not 120
From there, if 4 fewer Badenoch voters switch to Mordaunt and switch to Truss instead then its 112 Truss versus 111 Mordaunt.
37.1C Northolt
36.2C LHR
36.4C St James Park
36.5C Lakenheath
Vote is sometime before that after the 1922 hustings.
I imagine Sri Lanka wasn't mentioned.
I do find it weird they have no central database.
I also think the UK is doing a fantastic job at it and we need to concentrate on continuing what we're already doing, not chastise ourselves for not doing it faster.
I also think that almost all global pollution comes from the rest of the world and we should be doing more for mitigation/adaptation and not only talk about prevention which isn't in our hands anyway. Preventing climate change isn't possible, mitigating and minimising it is.
One last gig.
Though the whole plan falls down if Mordaunt remains more popular with the membership than Truss.
China didn't, and what we're emitting now is pissing in the ocean compared to them. So we need to continue what we're already doing steady as she goes, while investing in mitigation not just eliminating emissions.
Sri Lanka, of course, was the poster person for green policy....policies straight out of the WEF playbook
I feel we're missing out down here with only 24 C due to the sea breeze
BBC predicted 27 this morning, now it is saying it _is_ 30.
25 degrees indoors.
https://cleantechnica.com/2022/07/17/uk-offshore-wind-costs-4-times-less-than-gas-fired-thermal-generation/
Esher good
Eben-Esher good
Privatisation meant lots of small orders of incompatible units, some of which were utter duds.
The DFT specified the ultimate unit for every situation, then seemed surprised that the resulting units are poor in pretty much all of them (and are also given to falling to bits as the manufacturers decided to make them out of a completely unsuitable grade of aluminium alloy, but as no one at the DFT knows anything about engineering they didn't ask any of the relevant awkward questions they should have done before signing the contract).
Projectile fusion offers new path to clean energy, quantum communications for alien civilizations
https://physicsworld.com/a/projectile-fusion-offers-new-path-to-clean-energy-quantum-communications-for-alien-civilizations/
I've packed up work as the temperature in East Ham reaches 36c and will be a chilly 24c by dawn. Marham and Cambridge both at 37c so the record under serious threat today.
Tomorrow is something different - today's record (if it goes) will go again tomorrow with 41c widely forecast in South Yorkshire and a band of extreme heat down the A1 corridor which clears out slowly tomorrow night and still lingers in East Anglia and the far SE on Wednesday.
Would he have been re-elected? Yeah. He’d have ridden the 9/11 wave too. Which probably means no Obama in 2008. And no Tea Party. Instead then we’d have probably got Macain. And then what? The pressures from globalisation would still be there. So perhaps we’d have got that loopy guy, I forget his name now in this heat, that screamed at his rally like a baboon. A leftist-Trump policy wise. He’d have crashed and burned after a term. We’d probably have Romney right now.
AIUI, membership has hovered around 180,000 for some time (with a brief spike to 220,000ish in the aftermath of the 2019 leadership contest, that dribbled out over the course of 2020).
What would be great is if we combined this zeal with what we used to be good at - engineering entrepreneurism. We should be developing and manufacturing the kit that we then export to help other countries hit their targets. As opposed to importing it all like we do now.
In the real world, its just a month now until Liz Cheney is hammered in the Wyoming primary by whatever candidate Trump has backed.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jan/23/uk-has-biggest-fossil-fuel-subsidies-in-the-eu-finds-commission
That would pass WTO, I think.
Their economy and government collapsed totally in short order.
What sort of example did that send to other developing countries?
Actually, not waiting to happen. Starting to happen.
"China's total renewable energy capacity exceeded 1,000GW in 2021, accounting for 43.5 per cent of the country's total power generation capacity, 10.2 percentage points higher than in 2015".
For example Orion style pulsed thermonuclear reactors.
"Country X, in my country we generate electricity by setting off a nuclear weapon every sixty seconds. Come on, if you are hard enough."
I fear a tissue of lies and I plan to lance this boil before the contagion spreads!
The newly added capacity under construction was three times more than the rest of the world combined, said Helsinki-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) and U.S. think tank Global Energy Monitor (GEM)."
source: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-starts-building-33-gw-coal-power-2021-most-since-2016-research-2022-02-24/
(World in Data has some intructive charts on CO2 emissions. For example: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co2?facet=none&country=CHN~USA~IND~GBR~OWID_WRL&Gas=CO₂&Accounting=Production-based&Fuel=Total&Count=Per+country )
Sri Lanka chose B.
I wonder if the food in the nurses' home was quite up to scratch in those days of overcooked cabbage?
A guaranteed vote winner.
But what is your question?
UK video runs at 25fps. US runs at 30, or 29.97
Most new renewables aren't getting subsidies now.
The solution is simple. Provide shade for the Appian Way. A lot of shade.
"From 2008 through 2018, China’s use of renewable energy – excluding hydroelectricity – grew 33 percent annually, according to BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy. Over that same period, China’s coal consumption has grown 1.7 percent per year, well below its economic growth. In India, renewable energy was growing 17 percent per year 2008 through 2018, with coal consumption at 5.5 percent. Use of renewables has grown at a slower pace of late in both countries, while coal use in India last year was flat."
https://energy.stanford.edu/news/renewable-energy-growth-china-and-india-underappreciated-no-vaccine-climate-crisis#:~:text=Over that same period, China’s coal consumption has,coal use in India last year was flat.
Let’s hope the winter is mild.
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1549039455419650050?s=21&t=nqJRR1pu-1Wkbxl0Prj8EQ
What does that have to do with fossil fuels?
https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-worlds-coal-power-plants/
TLDR: Growing, but rate of growth slowing (actually a drop in generation in 2019, but I wouldn't read too much into one year). What's interesting is the drop in load factor.
Go on.
It then ran out of foreign currency paying for the food imports it needed after yields of rice and the vital tea crop collapsed because of organic farming.
Spain, Romania, Germany, Italy. UK not too far behind. China some way behind.
1. it was a long time ago as I said 1959. Many of my readers were not born then! My memory may well be imperfect.
2. Microbiology in hospital pharmacy was very, very new. However careful investigation suggested that there was cross contamination of samples in the microbiology fridge with the lollies, which led to the outbreak of boils among the junior nurses!
It was a shame, because my vacation student colleague John and myself rather liked 16-17-year-old nurses calling frequently at the pharmacy department!