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Rishi and Liz looking stronger on the betting markets – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929

    IanB2 said:

    42.7 C already at Providence Square (and also Lyneham) - that must be a mistake? Direct sunshine on the reader, perhaps

    My sensor doesn't give readings above 50C, and it's managed to get that high in direct sunlight.

    The other thing to watch out for is concrete. Even a well shielded sensor will give readings too high if it's on a stone patio in front of a South-facing wall.
    I assume the actual Heathrow reading is on grass ?
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Is anyone thinking Sunak will pull off a victory in 2024? May I know your reasons?

    SKS continues to surprise on the downside, and facing not-Boris may really shake him. I keep saying, and not just to troll his supporters, that I would have backed him to come last (with the general public) if he had been given a wildcard entry into last night's debate. He just isn't very good at all.
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,226
    kyf_100 said:

    We need a massive state investment into the railways to ensure they are safe as the climate emergency gets worse.

    And it would put a lot of people to work and could be a Brexit benefit with state aid.

    Subsidise e-bikes. Create separate cycle lanes completely sectioned off from roads through town centres and out to the suburbs. Treat them like tube lines, but in every city.

    Free park and ride in every city, starting 2 miles out of centre. Penalise car use in every city centre, congestion charge as needed etc.

    Government subsidised affordable "car share" clubs so people can rent car use by the hour, up to a certain numbers of hours, per week. Costs increasing per each additional hour.

    Invest in high speed maglev / hyperloop tech for fast city to city travel, cost and nimbys be damned. Plus motorway road pricing per mile.

    Ultimately 20th (and 21st) century life is structured entirely around the motorcar. Our cities are planned around it, our houses are built around it, our offices and out of town shopping centres are designed for it.

    I'm not advocating banning cars, far from it - just trying to imagine what our society might look like if it wasn't structured around the motorcar, and how we might get there.
    That works in urban and suburban areas. Meanwhile out in the sticks we either need bus services (which nobody is willing to pay for) or you're using the car.
  • Options
    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,040
    Andy_JS said:

    murali_s said:

    murali_s said:

    Already 31.3C at LHR at 11 hrs

    Northolt at 31.8C and St James Park at 32.1C were hotter at 11 hrs.
    Where's the best place to see these official readings?
    Many places - I tend to use
    https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/observations.php?map=20&model=SYNOP&var=5&h=0
    https://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/temperatures.php
  • Options

    We need a massive state investment into the railways to ensure they are safe as the climate emergency gets worse.

    And it would put a lot of people to work and could be a Brexit benefit with state aid.

    We could - but we won't. Even the semi-fictional GBR won't do so assuming it actually gets created with the brief that soon to be ex-Transport Secretary Sebastian Fox gave it.

    Too much of the network is done on the cheap. And yet costs £vast because of the nobcheese privatisation structure that has been maintained despite almost all of it being run by the DFT's preferred private contractors.

    As an example. The East Coast Mainline was wired on the cheap to save the Treasury money in the late 80s. Has cost way more in disruption and endless repairs than it would have cost Nigel Lawson to do it properly. And that's just the wires - a lack of power to go into the wires is why we have absurdities like franchises issued for what is now LNER to operate trains that the infrastructure is incapable of accommodating.

    The solution remains to copy the successful European models. State Owned, Commercially Run companies who borrow at government rates to build and run services run for public need.
    It is a testament to how good our engineering ability was/is, that the InterCity 125 has lasted as long as it has.

    I was looking at how quickly and early we got certain electrifications done, genuinely impressive.

    We should be racing ahead in railways and yet we are stuck. We need a transport revolution.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,622
    jonny83 said:

    I didn't know that the temperatures are measured in the shade. 40 degrees potentially in the shade...

    Sun measurements are regularly over 50 degrees I think.
  • Options
    IshmaelZ said:

    Is anyone thinking Sunak will pull off a victory in 2024? May I know your reasons?

    SKS continues to surprise on the downside, and facing not-Boris may really shake him. I keep saying, and not just to troll his supporters, that I would have backed him to come last (with the general public) if he had been given a wildcard entry into last night's debate. He just isn't very good at all.
    I'm afraid I disagree, he'd even Sunak for sure. They're both dull as dishwater but Sunak is Gordon Brown.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929

    IanB2 said:

    42.7 C already at Providence Square (and also Lyneham) - that must be a mistake? Direct sunshine on the reader, perhaps

    My sensor doesn't give readings above 50C, and it's managed to get that high in direct sunlight.

    The other thing to watch out for is concrete. Even a well shielded sensor will give readings too high if it's on a stone patio in front of a South-facing wall.
    I had a thermometer once. Left it in my car and it broke :D
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,204
    And phew what a scorcher! I like the heat but this is OTT.
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    jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261

    Is anyone thinking Sunak will pull off a victory in 2024? May I know your reasons?

    No I don't think he will.

    I genuinely don't think he has any answers in the economic front which was evidenced by his piss poor performance as Chancellor. I think we haven't even scratched the surface yet on how bad this cost of living crisis is going to get.

    I think his financial status including his Wife's will be brought up a lot and he will get defensive. From what I've seen he doesn't deal with it well enough.

    I think with the electorate he will be seen as too much as part of the previous regime. His FPN and Partygate will haunt him with the electorate.

    And overall perhaps some of this pretty much out of his control I feel like there is this feeling in the air it's time the Conservaties need to go in opposition for a while.
  • Options
    MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Re the betting, the odds for Truss seem to be predicated on the views that (1) enough MPs can be essentially forced to vote for her despite her consistently polling poorly when it comes to the public and (2) the Johnson camp see her as the "Stop Sunak" candidate.

    On (2), Johnson's main motivation is to stop Sunak, not back Truss. If, in the next few days, there starts to be a view that Truss is so useless she may lose to Sunak in the final round, they will look for another option (probably Badenoch).

    On (1), I don't see it. What I do think is interesting is that we could get a split here between the traditional, Southern-based Tory MPs who go with the "establishment" candidates and the newer, mainly Northern and Midlands-based MPs who want to go with something different.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,578
    Andy_JS said:

    jonny83 said:

    I didn't know that the temperatures are measured in the shade. 40 degrees potentially in the shade...

    Sun measurements are regularly over 50 degrees I think.
    Can confirm that from readings taken on my own front porch. And NOT during heat wave, just ordinary hot, sunny day.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,622
    Cambridge already 33C at 11am.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    kyf_100 said:

    We need a massive state investment into the railways to ensure they are safe as the climate emergency gets worse.

    And it would put a lot of people to work and could be a Brexit benefit with state aid.

    Subsidise e-bikes. Create separate cycle lanes completely sectioned off from roads through town centres and out to the suburbs. Treat them like tube lines, but in every city.

    Free park and ride in every city, starting 2 miles out of centre. Penalise car use in every city centre, congestion charge as needed etc.

    Government subsidised affordable "car share" clubs so people can rent car use by the hour, up to a certain numbers of hours, per week. Costs increasing per each additional hour.

    Invest in high speed maglev / hyperloop tech for fast city to city travel, cost and nimbys be damned. Plus motorway road pricing per mile.

    Ultimately 20th (and 21st) century life is structured entirely around the motorcar. Our cities are planned around it, our houses are built around it, our offices and out of town shopping centres are designed for it.

    I'm not advocating banning cars, far from it - just trying to imagine what our society might look like if it wasn't structured around the motorcar, and how we might get there.
    That works in urban and suburban areas. Meanwhile out in the sticks we either need bus services (which nobody is willing to pay for) or you're using the car.
    That's fine, that's what park & ride is for. Car gets you to town, bus or bike gets you around town.
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,437
    edited July 2022

    This is the poll they're all talking about

    Naughty of the pollsters for giving TOM a friendly first name reference in CAPITAL LETTERS (and big ones at that) while everyone else gets titlecase surnames only :wink:
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    murali_s said:

    Andy_JS said:

    murali_s said:

    murali_s said:

    Already 31.3C at LHR at 11 hrs

    Northolt at 31.8C and St James Park at 32.1C were hotter at 11 hrs.
    Where's the best place to see these official readings?
    Many places - I tend to use
    https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/observations.php?map=20&model=SYNOP&var=5&h=0
    https://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/temperatures.php
    What's official about those? meteociel lets you post your own obs if you register an account with them. germans aren't clear about their sources

    https://wow.metoffice.gov.uk/ and set filter to official observations
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,289
    In our loft extension, I closed the west-facing curtains (with window open) and attached some black-out type sheets with suction cups on the velux-type windows facing east (again both open now) - 30.1 degrees up there right now!
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,540



    Sandpit said:

    Farooq said:

    Choosing Heathrow is basically cheating :lol:

    Okay then, I’m at 25.07N, 55.24W. :D
    I'm going for Northampton.
    Saffron Walden for me; Kemi's feeling the heat.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,578

    This is the poll they're all talking about

    Penny's rounding looks different

    Musnet (whatever that is) says "poll" now closed, and gives Tug & PM both 26% no decimals.

    https://www.mumsnet.com/articles/poll-who-do-you-want-to-win-the-tory-leadership-contest
    It seems to be just a voodoo poll.
    Like ConHome survey? Ice cream poll - which actually sounds pretty good from UK perspective today!
  • Options
    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,040
    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    42.7 C already at Providence Square (and also Lyneham) - that must be a mistake? Direct sunshine on the reader, perhaps

    My sensor doesn't give readings above 50C, and it's managed to get that high in direct sunlight.

    The other thing to watch out for is concrete. Even a well shielded sensor will give readings too high if it's on a stone patio in front of a South-facing wall.
    I assume the actual Heathrow reading is on grass ?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-44980493.amp
  • Options

    In our loft extension, I closed the west-facing curtains (with window open) and attached some black-out type sheets with suction cups on the velux-type windows facing east (again both open now) - 30.1 degrees up there right now!

    Why open the windows? Surely you want to keep heat OUT?
  • Options
    IshmaelZ said:

    murali_s said:

    IanB2 said:

    42.7 C already at Providence Square (and also Lyneham) - that must be a mistake? Direct sunshine on the reader, perhaps

    Stick with the official MO stations.
    sensible advice (untick WOW in filters). Some of the amateur readings are barking

    Ramsgate 30 the current high
    Are WOW stations included in the competition, or not? Because the one I went for is a WOW one.

    If that's excluded, then the closest "official" one to the one I named is Charlwood, so I'd go with that.
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,437
    New extension pleasantly cool, guess all that insulation doing its job.

    I'm unfortunately working in the front box room, with 1920s levels of insulation, which is a bit more of a sweatbox :cry:
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,965

    We need a massive state investment into the railways to ensure they are safe as the climate emergency gets worse.

    And it would put a lot of people to work and could be a Brexit benefit with state aid.

    We could - but we won't. Even the semi-fictional GBR won't do so assuming it actually gets created with the brief that soon to be ex-Transport Secretary Sebastian Fox gave it.

    Too much of the network is done on the cheap. And yet costs £vast because of the nobcheese privatisation structure that has been maintained despite almost all of it being run by the DFT's preferred private contractors.

    As an example. The East Coast Mainline was wired on the cheap to save the Treasury money in the late 80s. Has cost way more in disruption and endless repairs than it would have cost Nigel Lawson to do it properly. And that's just the wires - a lack of power to go into the wires is why we have absurdities like franchises issued for what is now LNER to operate trains that the infrastructure is incapable of accommodating.

    The solution remains to copy the successful European models. State Owned, Commercially Run companies who borrow at government rates to build and run services run for public need.
    It is a testament to how good our engineering ability was/is, that the InterCity 125 has lasted as long as it has.

    I was looking at how quickly and early we got certain electrifications done, genuinely impressive.

    We should be racing ahead in railways and yet we are stuck. We need a transport revolution.
    That's because the debate is around ownership.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky sacked the head of the country's secret service and its chief prosecutor on Sunday night over collaboration with the Russians, alleged to have taken place in their departments.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/07/17/russia-accused-shelling-ukraine-occupied-nuclear-plant/
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,289

    This is the poll they're all talking about

    Penny's rounding looks different

    Musnet (whatever that is) says "poll" now closed, and gives Tug & PM both 26% no decimals.

    https://www.mumsnet.com/articles/poll-who-do-you-want-to-win-the-tory-leadership-contest
    It seems to be just a voodoo poll.
    Did you hear about the psephologist from Warsaw wot moved to Haiti?

    :lol:
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,578
    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    42.7 C already at Providence Square (and also Lyneham) - that must be a mistake? Direct sunshine on the reader, perhaps

    My sensor doesn't give readings above 50C, and it's managed to get that high in direct sunlight.

    The other thing to watch out for is concrete. Even a well shielded sensor will give readings too high if it's on a stone patio in front of a South-facing wall.
    I assume the actual Heathrow reading is on grass ?
    As professionals, meteorologists at LHR ought to remain straight AND sober during working hours!
  • Options
    dixiedean said:

    We need a massive state investment into the railways to ensure they are safe as the climate emergency gets worse.

    And it would put a lot of people to work and could be a Brexit benefit with state aid.

    We could - but we won't. Even the semi-fictional GBR won't do so assuming it actually gets created with the brief that soon to be ex-Transport Secretary Sebastian Fox gave it.

    Too much of the network is done on the cheap. And yet costs £vast because of the nobcheese privatisation structure that has been maintained despite almost all of it being run by the DFT's preferred private contractors.

    As an example. The East Coast Mainline was wired on the cheap to save the Treasury money in the late 80s. Has cost way more in disruption and endless repairs than it would have cost Nigel Lawson to do it properly. And that's just the wires - a lack of power to go into the wires is why we have absurdities like franchises issued for what is now LNER to operate trains that the infrastructure is incapable of accommodating.

    The solution remains to copy the successful European models. State Owned, Commercially Run companies who borrow at government rates to build and run services run for public need.
    It is a testament to how good our engineering ability was/is, that the InterCity 125 has lasted as long as it has.

    I was looking at how quickly and early we got certain electrifications done, genuinely impressive.

    We should be racing ahead in railways and yet we are stuck. We need a transport revolution.
    That's because the debate is around ownership.
    Clearly they would be better either in state hands or entirely privatised.

    Why on Earth are we giving money away to FirstGroup to run things which the Government now decides? Totally nonsensical.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,060

    This is the poll they're all talking about

    Penny's rounding looks different

    Musnet (whatever that is) says "poll" now closed, and gives Tug & PM both 26% no decimals.

    https://www.mumsnet.com/articles/poll-who-do-you-want-to-win-the-tory-leadership-contest
    It seems to be just a voodoo poll.
    Like ConHome survey? Ice cream poll - which actually sounds pretty good from UK perspective today!
    ConHome's methodology is slightly more sophisticated.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,280
    edited July 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    murali_s said:

    IanB2 said:

    42.7 C already at Providence Square (and also Lyneham) - that must be a mistake? Direct sunshine on the reader, perhaps

    Stick with the official MO stations.
    sensible advice (untick WOW in filters). Some of the amateur readings are barking

    Ramsgate 30 the current high
    Excellent advice. Much clearer

    Manston vying with Nettlecombe on the Devon/Somerset border (and the Belgium/Netherlands border) at 29.5 C, with readings above 28C spread around E&W
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,736
    Zoe Grunewald inb the Staggers's morning email:


    'This bickering and Tory navel-gazing feels a little senseless when one considers the other crisis that’s expected to hit this week. A national emergency has been declared by No 10 as the first “red heat warning” has been issued for parts of the UK. In many areas, temperatures in Celsius are likely to reach the low 40s, resulting in thousands of excess deaths and considerable disruption to normal life.

    On Wednesday, the country should cool down and we should know who the final two Tory candidates are. Today, a poll for the Times revealed that climate change intervention is at the very bottom of the Conservative Party membership’s list of priorities – a group, incidentally, that will be instrumental in selecting the next leader of our country. The nation’s fate rests with those who have no incentive to prioritise the environment. It’s a fascinating time politically, but, arriving in a week when the Conservative Party is distracted by internal wrangling, doesn’t this two-day heatwave all feel a little prophetic?'
  • Options
    pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,132
    Pulpstar said:

    Is anyone thinking Sunak will pull off a victory in 2024? May I know your reasons?

    Ukraine comes to a settlement, hydrocarbons dip, inflation lowers, Rishi says the pain was worth it. Major style '92 win. It's definitely possible. All to play for.
    Besides which, the Tories start out defending a notional majority somewhere near 100 after boundary change, retain a substantial advantage with the grey vote, Starmer is uninspiring and I personally suspect that the Corbyn episode and some of the fringe culture wars issues have increased the percentage of "never Labour" voters in the electorate. Labour still has a lot of work to do.

    Set aside today's opinion polls (which, in any case, are surprisingly close given the dire economic climate) and the spectacular by-election results. As things currently stand, I'd be a bit surprised if the Conservatives didn't end up as the largest party after the next election.
  • Options
    jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261
    edited July 2022
    "I'm told that at the end of Friday's vitriolic leadership debate on Channel 4, Sunak turned to Truss and asked: 'Why are we doing this?'

    Both questioned the point of the debates amid concerns about where they will leave the Conservative Party in the long-term"

    Source:

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1548959446956638209?t=8PA1EG9NZsuSqD0IYZJ4lg&s=19
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited July 2022

    In our loft extension, I closed the west-facing curtains (with window open) and attached some black-out type sheets with suction cups on the velux-type windows facing east (again both open now) - 30.1 degrees up there right now!

    Why open the windows? Surely you want to keep heat OUT?
    Been trying to explain that to my elderly parents over the phone yesterday, not having much success. Reply of well we will open all the windows, that will keep the house cool. Not sure they are quite getting 40c will be coming IN.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,934
    edited July 2022

    Is anyone thinking Sunak will pull off a victory in 2024? May I know your reasons?

    Do you mean most seats or majority?
    I think he could certainly get the Tories close to a 2010 seat result (for them not the others!). How? If CoL is cushioned by interventions and inflation comes down fairly quick. Excess strike action may drive support to the government from some, especially if Labour are seen to be supportive of disruption. Fear of change, barratuve switchuig to SKS 'suitability', especially if he struggles to lay a glove early on. Swingback, giveaway budget. Triple lock securing grey vote........

    And i guess if 2010 is possible its a fairly small over performance ftom there to 2017 or 2015 results

    But im not predicting this at this stage, it is however very possible to plot this path
  • Options

    We need a massive state investment into the railways to ensure they are safe as the climate emergency gets worse.

    And it would put a lot of people to work and could be a Brexit benefit with state aid.

    F**k that, we already have massive state subsidies of the railways.

    We should instead be looking to eliminate state subsidies and let people who choose to use railways pay their own way.

    If railways are so terribly uneconomic and inefficient that their users can't pay their own way, then stop investing in them.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,289
    edited July 2022

    In our loft extension, I closed the west-facing curtains (with window open) and attached some black-out type sheets with suction cups on the velux-type windows facing east (again both open now) - 30.1 degrees up there right now!

    Why open the windows? Surely you want to keep heat OUT?
    Before I put up the black-out thingies, it was much hotter! Glass acts like a greenhouse.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,216
    That wow Met office map has a 43 degree on it now:

    Lyneham
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,289

    That wow Met office map has a 43 degree on it now:

    Lyneham

    Could you link please?
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,226

    dixiedean said:

    We need a massive state investment into the railways to ensure they are safe as the climate emergency gets worse.

    And it would put a lot of people to work and could be a Brexit benefit with state aid.

    We could - but we won't. Even the semi-fictional GBR won't do so assuming it actually gets created with the brief that soon to be ex-Transport Secretary Sebastian Fox gave it.

    Too much of the network is done on the cheap. And yet costs £vast because of the nobcheese privatisation structure that has been maintained despite almost all of it being run by the DFT's preferred private contractors.

    As an example. The East Coast Mainline was wired on the cheap to save the Treasury money in the late 80s. Has cost way more in disruption and endless repairs than it would have cost Nigel Lawson to do it properly. And that's just the wires - a lack of power to go into the wires is why we have absurdities like franchises issued for what is now LNER to operate trains that the infrastructure is incapable of accommodating.

    The solution remains to copy the successful European models. State Owned, Commercially Run companies who borrow at government rates to build and run services run for public need.
    It is a testament to how good our engineering ability was/is, that the InterCity 125 has lasted as long as it has.

    I was looking at how quickly and early we got certain electrifications done, genuinely impressive.

    We should be racing ahead in railways and yet we are stuck. We need a transport revolution.
    That's because the debate is around ownership.
    Clearly they would be better either in state hands or entirely privatised.

    Why on Earth are we giving money away to FirstGroup to run things which the Government now decides? Totally nonsensical.
    It isn't. We're 3 decades into the privatised structure. All of the railway professionals are working for the private sector. Remember that even the fully "nationalised" ones are run by yet another private sector operator. When franchises get binned for management contracts the likes of First Group get paid a fee to supply the staff and the organisation to do whatever the DfT morons tell them to do.

    We could create a StateCo operator, but at the moment they would be run by the same DfT morons who fuck up literally every decision they make wrt railway operations. At least the staff at First actually know what they are doing.

    As for the debate around ownership, remember the simple rule - passenger rail operations were never privatised. A private sector company being awarded 7 years operating concessions which hand back to the state owner on expiry is not privatisation.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,197

    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    42.7 C already at Providence Square (and also Lyneham) - that must be a mistake? Direct sunshine on the reader, perhaps

    My sensor doesn't give readings above 50C, and it's managed to get that high in direct sunlight.

    The other thing to watch out for is concrete. Even a well shielded sensor will give readings too high if it's on a stone patio in front of a South-facing wall.
    I assume the actual Heathrow reading is on grass ?
    As professionals, meteorologists at LHR ought to remain straight AND sober during working hours!
    It’s placed in the exhaust of jets as they take off for added hot readings...*

    *This is genuinely believed by some global warming skeptics.
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    murali_s said:

    IanB2 said:

    42.7 C already at Providence Square (and also Lyneham) - that must be a mistake? Direct sunshine on the reader, perhaps

    Stick with the official MO stations.
    sensible advice (untick WOW in filters). Some of the amateur readings are barking

    Ramsgate 30 the current high
    Are WOW stations included in the competition, or not? Because the one I went for is a WOW one.

    If that's excluded, then the closest "official" one to the one I named is Charlwood, so I'd go with that.
    I don't know. I imagine the met Office will announce an official max this evening. seems a bit limiting if that isn't the actual high just the highest high where there happens to be a proper weather station, but that is presumably why Heathrow always sets the record. Or they were really unlucky in choosing where to put an airport.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,280
    edited July 2022

    That wow Met office map has a 43 degree on it now:

    Lyneham

    The fact that none of the official readings are anywhere near suggests it is wrong, tho.

    The official 26 at St Catherine's Point is what I am getting in my garden
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,197

    That wow Met office map has a 43 degree on it now:

    Lyneham

    Cannot be right. I’m 30 miles south and 14 degrees cooler.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,280

    That wow Met office map has a 43 degree on it now:

    Lyneham

    Could you link please?
    Read the thread, lazy sod!
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,289

    We need a massive state investment into the railways to ensure they are safe as the climate emergency gets worse.

    And it would put a lot of people to work and could be a Brexit benefit with state aid.

    F**k that, we already have massive state subsidies of the railways.

    We should instead be looking to eliminate state subsidies and let people who choose to use railways pay their own way.

    If railways are so terribly uneconomic and inefficient that their users can't pay their own way, then stop investing in them.
    Is that you, Dr Beeching? :lol:
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,578

    In our loft extension, I closed the west-facing curtains (with window open) and attached some black-out type sheets with suction cups on the velux-type windows facing east (again both open now) - 30.1 degrees up there right now!

    Why open the windows? Surely you want to keep heat OUT?
    Before I put up the black-out thingies, it was much hotter!
    Suggest closing them back up when temp inside attic & outside has equalized.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,248
    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    42.7 C already at Providence Square (and also Lyneham) - that must be a mistake? Direct sunshine on the reader, perhaps

    My sensor doesn't give readings above 50C, and it's managed to get that high in direct sunlight.

    The other thing to watch out for is concrete. Even a well shielded sensor will give readings too high if it's on a stone patio in front of a South-facing wall.
    I assume the actual Heathrow reading is on grass ?
    It seems to be on a patch of grass North of the North runway.
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    That wow Met office map has a 43 degree on it now:

    Lyneham

    Could you link please?
    https://wow.metoffice.gov.uk/

    I mean, I'm the only one qualified to remote link to this site anyway.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    In terms of the (silly, for fun) competition I was running earlier:

    I'm going to go by whatever the Met Office says in terms of judging the location of the highest (Great Britain) temperature today. In the case that I can't find an announcement from them, I'll go with what the BBC says. If that fails, I dunno, I'll find something that looks sorta reliable.
  • Options
    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,040
    33.7C at LHR at 12 hrs. Anywhere hotter than that in the UK?
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,197
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    murali_s said:

    IanB2 said:

    42.7 C already at Providence Square (and also Lyneham) - that must be a mistake? Direct sunshine on the reader, perhaps

    Stick with the official MO stations.
    sensible advice (untick WOW in filters). Some of the amateur readings are barking

    Ramsgate 30 the current high
    Are WOW stations included in the competition, or not? Because the one I went for is a WOW one.

    If that's excluded, then the closest "official" one to the one I named is Charlwood, so I'd go with that.
    I don't know. I imagine the met Office will announce an official max this evening. seems a bit limiting if that isn't the actual high just the highest high where there happens to be a proper weather station, but that is presumably why Heathrow always sets the record. Or they were really unlucky in choosing where to put an airport.
    There is a real need to use official weather stations so as to exclude false readings from direct sunlight.
  • Options
    pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,132

    We need a massive state investment into the railways to ensure they are safe as the climate emergency gets worse.

    And it would put a lot of people to work and could be a Brexit benefit with state aid.

    F**k that, we already have massive state subsidies of the railways.

    We should instead be looking to eliminate state subsidies and let people who choose to use railways pay their own way.

    If railways are so terribly uneconomic and inefficient that their users can't pay their own way, then stop investing in them.
    You could say that about all sorts of things which fall broadly within the definition of a social good. All that running down public transport does is to maroon the poor and force everyone else to use cars more.

    Let's not become more like the United States.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    Cyclefree said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    TimS said:

    FPT

    I think this is shaping up to be a nightmare for most of us but a dream for Labour.

    Mordaunt really seems to have fluffed her lines. Badenoch won’t quite make the cut, so it’s going to end up being a runoff between dull and flawed but fundamentally fairly professional Rishi, and Truss.

    The membership will vote for Liz. She will prove to be every bit as bad as her predecessor, and surrounded by the same clowns. Meanwhile the economy will get worse as will relations with the EU and the coherence of the Union, The public will think “bugger this for a laugh” and seriously shit on
    the Tories in 2024.

    Out of all the candidates, the one who will generate zero polling bounce or even a new nadir is Truss.

    Not just a dream for Labour. SNP, SG and PC will be overjoyed. As indeed you imply.
    Truss is definitely our dream result, but I just don’t think we’re going to get that lucky.
    Quite. Admittedly somewhat to my relief, given she would probably start a nuclear war just to improve her postings on Conservative Home, and generate a cosplay Maggie set against a mushroom cloud or three.

    Hint: MOPP 4 noddy suits don't do a great deal for one's blonde hairstyle.
    I don't get the dressing up. It's so thuddingly literal. It's not 'power dressing for the 21st century' like Theresa May and her tennis ball necklaces, it's literally 'I'm going to wear an identical Maggie blouse'. Does she think it's subtle? She'll be doing the Maggie walk with the inclined head and carrying her handbag by the crook of her arm next.
    It is, more than a bit. That bow-tie thingy ( @MoonRabbit would know what it is, but I'm only a poor ignorant male) was so blatant.
    It shows a woman very uncertain of herself that she has to so obviously copy someone else. By her age you'd expect her to be much more confident in herself. But she isn't.
    Saying Bow tie thingy is okay - it’s actually called Pussybow, a detachable accessory - and let’s be honest here, is a great choice for top politician wishing to look the part in a TV debate or election broadcast.

    And if she did it just the once maybe, to the debate last week being her first Thatch Cosplay ever, just to get across Lady Thatcher is her inspiration in politics, it would have been very smart. 🙂

    But it was not the first time, she does it over and over like a ******* mad woman. Blame her team for not stopping her, as ”fan obsessive” is actually undermining her leadership cred.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,990
    32.2 now near Colchester
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,934
    murali_s said:

    33.7C at LHR at 12 hrs. Anywhere hotter than that in the UK?

    4 to 5 hours of warming ftom there to heat of the day.... might squeeze a 39 out of that today
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,226

    We need a massive state investment into the railways to ensure they are safe as the climate emergency gets worse.

    And it would put a lot of people to work and could be a Brexit benefit with state aid.

    F**k that, we already have massive state subsidies of the railways.

    We should instead be looking to eliminate state subsidies and let people who choose to use railways pay their own way.

    If railways are so terribly uneconomic and inefficient that their users can't pay their own way, then stop investing in them.
    The cost is the competitive private operator structure. State subsidy quintupled vs BR days. So much of that can be removed by abolishing all of the contractual shite and go back to running a railway.

    I do like your idea about scrapping subsidy though. Lets do the same for roads - have people pay their way. Then the police and ambulance and army...
  • Options
    MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    Is anyone thinking Sunak will pull off a victory in 2024? May I know your reasons?

    Do you mean most seats or majority?
    I think he could certainly get the Tories close to a 2010 seat result (for them not the others!). How? If CoL is cushioned by interventions and inflation comes down fairly quick. Excess strike action may drive support to the government from some, especially if Labour are seen to be supportive of disruption. Fear of change, barratuve switchuig to SKS 'suitability', especially if he struggles to lay a glove early on. Swingback, giveaway budget. Triple lock securing grey vote........

    And i guess if 2010 is possible its a fairly small over performance ftom there to 2017 or 2015 results

    But im not predicting this at this stage, it is however very possible to plot this path

    Sunak goes around like he's just been thrust into office in a landslide after a Corbynite government trashed the economy. He acts like he just picked up a 'there's no money left' note.

    But that did not happen. It wasn't a big boy that did it and ran away. It was him.

    The voters know it. They also know that there will always be a reason why Rishi can't give you your money back. Right now its inflation. In two years it will be some other crisis.

    Sunak is the nightmare choice for the tories, if they only knew it.
  • Options
    .

    We need a massive state investment into the railways to ensure they are safe as the climate emergency gets worse.

    And it would put a lot of people to work and could be a Brexit benefit with state aid.

    F**k that, we already have massive state subsidies of the railways.

    We should instead be looking to eliminate state subsidies and let people who choose to use railways pay their own way.

    If railways are so terribly uneconomic and inefficient that their users can't pay their own way, then stop investing in them.
    Is that you, Dr Beeching? :lol:
    Beeching didn't do it properly. Pruning state owned and operated railways while keeping them subsidised by the taxpayer achieves little. It kept the railways being ran for state-related interest groups, rather than for the consumers.

    Get them out of state involvement altogether, like the Japanese main rail routes are done. More Japanese people commute by rail as a proportion than possibly any other country in the world and they do so primarily (eg apart from the north island, which is less populated than Scotland) without subsidies.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,578

    This is the poll they're all talking about

    Penny's rounding looks different

    Musnet (whatever that is) says "poll" now closed, and gives Tug & PM both 26% no decimals.

    https://www.mumsnet.com/articles/poll-who-do-you-want-to-win-the-tory-leadership-contest
    It seems to be just a voodoo poll.
    Like ConHome survey? Ice cream poll - which actually sounds pretty good from UK perspective today!
    ConHome's methodology is slightly more sophisticated.
    Emphasis on "slightly"? Or does anyone know what their method actually is?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,745
    No debate? Boo.

    I dont know why they are concerned about infighting. You're supposed to infight at such times. It still exists even if theres no debate.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,204

    IshmaelZ said:

    Is anyone thinking Sunak will pull off a victory in 2024? May I know your reasons?

    SKS continues to surprise on the downside, and facing not-Boris may really shake him. I keep saying, and not just to troll his supporters, that I would have backed him to come last (with the general public) if he had been given a wildcard entry into last night's debate. He just isn't very good at all.
    I'm afraid I disagree, he'd even Sunak for sure. They're both dull as dishwater but Sunak is Gordon Brown.
    I actually don't find Sunak particularly dull - certainly compared to Mordaunt or Tugendhat.

    I wonder if having just had a vaudeville act as PM is skewing our perceptions of how much entertainment one expects from politicians.
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,725
    edited July 2022
    pigeon said:

    We need a massive state investment into the railways to ensure they are safe as the climate emergency gets worse.

    And it would put a lot of people to work and could be a Brexit benefit with state aid.

    F**k that, we already have massive state subsidies of the railways.

    We should instead be looking to eliminate state subsidies and let people who choose to use railways pay their own way.

    If railways are so terribly uneconomic and inefficient that their users can't pay their own way, then stop investing in them.
    You could say that about all sorts of things which fall broadly within the definition of a social good. All that running down public transport does is to maroon the poor and force everyone else to use cars more.

    Let's not become more like the United States.
    Over 80% of the nation uses cars more already and cars are cheaper for most of the "poor" than railways are.

    Subsidised railways are used by wealthy commuters far more than the "poor".

    However in nations like Japan, where there are no subsidies for the railways but they're ran in the consumers interests instead of politicians, lobbyists or unions interests, they actually have more using railways than cars.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,934
    MISTY said:

    Is anyone thinking Sunak will pull off a victory in 2024? May I know your reasons?

    Do you mean most seats or majority?
    I think he could certainly get the Tories close to a 2010 seat result (for them not the others!). How? If CoL is cushioned by interventions and inflation comes down fairly quick. Excess strike action may drive support to the government from some, especially if Labour are seen to be supportive of disruption. Fear of change, barratuve switchuig to SKS 'suitability', especially if he struggles to lay a glove early on. Swingback, giveaway budget. Triple lock securing grey vote........

    And i guess if 2010 is possible its a fairly small over performance ftom there to 2017 or 2015 results

    But im not predicting this at this stage, it is however very possible to plot this path

    Sunak goes around like he's just been thrust into office in a landslide after a Corbynite government trashed the economy. He acts like he just picked up a 'there's no money left' note.

    But that did not happen. It wasn't a big boy that did it and ran away. It was him.

    The voters know it. They also know that there will always be a reason why Rishi can't give you your money back. Right now its inflation. In two years it will be some other crisis.

    Sunak is the nightmare choice for the tories, if they only knew it.
    That entirely depends on who 'wins' the fiscal argument with voters.
    A bit like the post crash argument over austerity/investment for growth/etc etc.
    If jam tomorrow/ride out the pain in less strife than others wins hes in clover
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,226

    .

    We need a massive state investment into the railways to ensure they are safe as the climate emergency gets worse.

    And it would put a lot of people to work and could be a Brexit benefit with state aid.

    F**k that, we already have massive state subsidies of the railways.

    We should instead be looking to eliminate state subsidies and let people who choose to use railways pay their own way.

    If railways are so terribly uneconomic and inefficient that their users can't pay their own way, then stop investing in them.
    Is that you, Dr Beeching? :lol:
    Beeching didn't do it properly. Pruning state owned and operated railways while keeping them subsidised by the taxpayer achieves little. It kept the railways being ran for state-related interest groups, rather than for the consumers.

    Get them out of state involvement altogether, like the Japanese main rail routes are done. More Japanese people commute by rail as a proportion than possibly any other country in the world and they do so primarily (eg apart from the north island, which is less populated than Scotland) without subsidies.
    I take your point, but not sure people are quite ready to pay per mile to drive, pay per 999 call when they get stabbed etc etc.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    kle4 said:

    No debate? Boo.

    I dont know why they are concerned about infighting. You're supposed to infight at such times. It still exists even if theres no debate.

    Maybe not concerns to party from disagreement, maybe concerned some of the questions they are being asked is flagging up their weaknesses in this contest.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,984
    edited July 2022
    The office Met Office weather station that has the most bucolic setting has to be Faversham. It's set amid the orchards at the Brogdale Trust – a living national archive of English apples. There are some weird and wonderful varieties found there.

    (Faversham did hold the record for 16 years – 10 Aug 2003 – until it was cruelly stolen by Cambridge in 2019. I'm not sure that city centre or airport temperatures should count. Urban Heat Island is cheating, surely?)
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,216
    IanB2 said:

    That wow Met office map has a 43 degree on it now:

    Lyneham

    The fact that none of the official readings are anywhere near suggests it is wrong, tho.

    The official 26 at St Catherine's Point is what I am getting in my garden
    Yeh, it looks like an outlier. Faulty?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,060

    This is the poll they're all talking about

    Penny's rounding looks different

    Musnet (whatever that is) says "poll" now closed, and gives Tug & PM both 26% no decimals.

    https://www.mumsnet.com/articles/poll-who-do-you-want-to-win-the-tory-leadership-contest
    It seems to be just a voodoo poll.
    Like ConHome survey? Ice cream poll - which actually sounds pretty good from UK perspective today!
    ConHome's methodology is slightly more sophisticated.
    Emphasis on "slightly"? Or does anyone know what their method actually is?
    They survey a panel of party members.

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/06/03/how-our-eve-of-ballot-survey-during-the-last-leadership-contest-had-the-winners-total-to-within-a-point/
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,984
    Farooq said:

    In terms of the (silly, for fun) competition I was running earlier:

    I'm going to go by whatever the Met Office says in terms of judging the location of the highest (Great Britain) temperature today. In the case that I can't find an announcement from them, I'll go with what the BBC says. If that fails, I dunno, I'll find something that looks sorta reliable.


    It has to be Met Office recorded and verified to count. Anything else is just fiction as any old fool can set up a weather station in their garden that fails to meet the criteria for testing temperatures.
  • Options

    .

    We need a massive state investment into the railways to ensure they are safe as the climate emergency gets worse.

    And it would put a lot of people to work and could be a Brexit benefit with state aid.

    F**k that, we already have massive state subsidies of the railways.

    We should instead be looking to eliminate state subsidies and let people who choose to use railways pay their own way.

    If railways are so terribly uneconomic and inefficient that their users can't pay their own way, then stop investing in them.
    Is that you, Dr Beeching? :lol:
    Beeching didn't do it properly. Pruning state owned and operated railways while keeping them subsidised by the taxpayer achieves little. It kept the railways being ran for state-related interest groups, rather than for the consumers.

    Get them out of state involvement altogether, like the Japanese main rail routes are done. More Japanese people commute by rail as a proportion than possibly any other country in the world and they do so primarily (eg apart from the north island, which is less populated than Scotland) without subsidies.
    I take your point, but not sure people are quite ready to pay per mile to drive, pay per 999 call when they get stabbed etc etc.
    People already pay when they drive, we have fuel duty. Oh and we have road tax, whatever its called today.

    999 is an actual social good, unlike transportation.
  • Options
    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,897
    Andy_JS said:

    jonny83 said:

    I didn't know that the temperatures are measured in the shade. 40 degrees potentially in the shade...

    Sun measurements are regularly over 50 degrees I think.
    Sun measurements aren't meaningful. The reading depends on what the thermometer is made of. That is why the temperaure is always measured in the shade.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,439
    MISTY said:

    Is anyone thinking Sunak will pull off a victory in 2024? May I know your reasons?

    Do you mean most seats or majority?
    I think he could certainly get the Tories close to a 2010 seat result (for them not the others!). How? If CoL is cushioned by interventions and inflation comes down fairly quick. Excess strike action may drive support to the government from some, especially if Labour are seen to be supportive of disruption. Fear of change, barratuve switchuig to SKS 'suitability', especially if he struggles to lay a glove early on. Swingback, giveaway budget. Triple lock securing grey vote........

    And i guess if 2010 is possible its a fairly small over performance ftom there to 2017 or 2015 results

    But im not predicting this at this stage, it is however very possible to plot this path

    Sunak goes around like he's just been thrust into office in a landslide after a Corbynite government trashed the economy. He acts like he just picked up a 'there's no money left' note.

    But that did not happen. It wasn't a big boy that did it and ran away. It was him.

    The voters know it. They also know that there will always be a reason why Rishi can't give you your money back. Right now its inflation. In two years it will be some other crisis.

    Sunak is the nightmare choice for the tories, if they only knew it.
    Sunak is a bad choice for the Conservatives. Apart from being Mr Economy when the economy isn't going well, he really isn't the right casting for austerity measures. And he is remarkably chippy when people question him.

    On the other hand, the alternatives may well all be worse. As we are seeing.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    MISTY said:


    Sunak goes around like he's just been thrust into office in a landslide after a Corbynite government trashed the economy. He acts like he just picked up a 'there's no money left' note.

    But that did not happen. It wasn't a big boy that did it and ran away. It was him.

    The voters know it. They also know that there will always be a reason why Rishi can't give you your money back. Right now its inflation. In two years it will be some other crisis.

    Sunak is the nightmare choice for the tories, if they only knew it.

    He has a perfectly good answer to that, which is that the very exceptional circumstances of the pandemic required a massive splurge to keep the country going. It's even an answer which has the merit of being true.

    That's not to say that he did everything right (my personal view is that he's been an OK but but not particularly good Chancellor), but it is true that under any Chancellor the public finances would have been pole-axed by the combination of the pandemic itself, the fall-out from it afterwards, and Putin's murderous war in Ukraine.
  • Options
    FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 3,886
    edited July 2022

    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    42.7 C already at Providence Square (and also Lyneham) - that must be a mistake? Direct sunshine on the reader, perhaps

    My sensor doesn't give readings above 50C, and it's managed to get that high in direct sunlight.

    The other thing to watch out for is concrete. Even a well shielded sensor will give readings too high if it's on a stone patio in front of a South-facing wall.
    I assume the actual Heathrow reading is on grass ?
    As professionals, meteorologists at LHR ought to remain straight AND sober during working hours!
    It’s placed in the exhaust of jets as they take off for added hot readings...*

    *This is genuinely believed by some global warming skeptics.
    It is in a bit of an urban jungle with a LOT of concrete, between the northern perimeter road and the northern runway.

    It may not be getting any jet blast but it is definitely a heat island.

    In that it represents the local temperature that's fine, but it isn't comparable with records from before the area was developed.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897
    41ºC and falling now, but likely won’t fall much further until sunset, at which point the humidity starts to build. Currently 32% humidity.

    Looking for a minimum 33ºC and 70% by just before sunrise tomorrow.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,248
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    murali_s said:

    IanB2 said:

    42.7 C already at Providence Square (and also Lyneham) - that must be a mistake? Direct sunshine on the reader, perhaps

    Stick with the official MO stations.
    sensible advice (untick WOW in filters). Some of the amateur readings are barking

    Ramsgate 30 the current high
    Are WOW stations included in the competition, or not? Because the one I went for is a WOW one.

    If that's excluded, then the closest "official" one to the one I named is Charlwood, so I'd go with that.
    I don't know. I imagine the met Office will announce an official max this evening. seems a bit limiting if that isn't the actual high just the highest high where there happens to be a proper weather station, but that is presumably why Heathrow always sets the record. Or they were really unlucky in choosing where to put an airport.
    A complication is that the Met Office uses some stations for long-term climate records that don't report data in real-time, so we're not necessarily going to get the definitive high temperature this afternoon.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,934
    kle4 said:

    No debate? Boo.

    I dont know why they are concerned about infighting. You're supposed to infight at such times. It still exists even if theres no debate.

    Yeah but they are verging on screaming 'c***' in each others faces.
    Ok, not litreally, but they are effectively trepanning themselves to try and let out the demons
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    This is the poll they're all talking about

    Penny's rounding looks different

    Musnet (whatever that is) says "poll" now closed, and gives Tug & PM both 26% no decimals.

    https://www.mumsnet.com/articles/poll-who-do-you-want-to-win-the-tory-leadership-contest
    It seems to be just a voodoo poll.
    Like ConHome survey? Ice cream poll - which actually sounds pretty good from UK perspective today!
    ConHome's methodology is slightly more sophisticated.
    Emphasis on "slightly"? Or does anyone know what their method actually is?
    They survey a panel of party members.

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/06/03/how-our-eve-of-ballot-survey-during-the-last-leadership-contest-had-the-winners-total-to-within-a-point/
    What makes the make up of the panel correct? Are they conscious about regional biases?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,745
    kinabalu said:

    Badenoch might pull out after this next vote, don't we think?

    If she drops votes I think yes. If she still gains a few she may as well continue on, the more she gets the more potential influence.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,150

    pigeon said:

    We need a massive state investment into the railways to ensure they are safe as the climate emergency gets worse.

    And it would put a lot of people to work and could be a Brexit benefit with state aid.

    F**k that, we already have massive state subsidies of the railways.

    We should instead be looking to eliminate state subsidies and let people who choose to use railways pay their own way.

    If railways are so terribly uneconomic and inefficient that their users can't pay their own way, then stop investing in them.
    You could say that about all sorts of things which fall broadly within the definition of a social good. All that running down public transport does is to maroon the poor and force everyone else to use cars more.

    Let's not become more like the United States.
    Over 80% of the nation uses cars more already and cars are cheaper for most of the "poor" than railways are.

    Subsidised railways are used by wealthy commuters far more than the "poor".

    However in nations like Japan, where there are no subsidies for the railways but they're ran in the consumers interests instead of politicians, lobbyists or unions interests, they actually have more using railways than cars.
    A few other things that help pull this trick off:

    1) The railways were already mostly built when privatized and the government kept the debt and/or offloaded it on government-run pension funds and things
    2) Planning regulations make it easy to build things especially around stations, and the railway companies are heavily into the real estate business
    3) No socialized parking. Streets are for driving on not parking on, if you want to park then you pay to use a car park
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,248

    The office Met Office weather station that has the most bucolic setting has to be Faversham. It's set amid the orchards at the Brogdale Trust – a living national archive of English apples. There are some weird and wonderful varieties found there.

    (Faversham did hold the record for 16 years – 10 Aug 2003 – until it was cruelly stolen by Cambridge in 2019. I'm not sure that city centre or airport temperatures should count. Urban Heat Island is cheating, surely?)

    I thought the Cambridge record was at the Botanic Garden? You'd be surprised at how quickly the temperature can drop off in a green space.
  • Options

    MISTY said:


    Sunak goes around like he's just been thrust into office in a landslide after a Corbynite government trashed the economy. He acts like he just picked up a 'there's no money left' note.

    But that did not happen. It wasn't a big boy that did it and ran away. It was him.

    The voters know it. They also know that there will always be a reason why Rishi can't give you your money back. Right now its inflation. In two years it will be some other crisis.

    Sunak is the nightmare choice for the tories, if they only knew it.

    He has a perfectly good answer to that, which is that the very exceptional circumstances of the pandemic required a massive splurge to keep the country going. It's even an answer which has the merit of being true.

    That's not to say that he did everything right (my personal view is that he's been an OK but but not particularly good Chancellor), but it is true that under any Chancellor the public finances would have been pole-axed by the combination of the pandemic itself, the fall-out from it afterwards, and Putin's murderous war in Ukraine.
    Budget deficit 2020:

    Sweden 2.82% of GDP
    UK 12.76% of GDP

    Bollocks did the pandemic "need" such spending, the disastrous choice to go for lockdown, and the even worse decision to keep lockdown going in 2021 on the other hand did.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,745
    Pulpstar said:

    Truss and Sunak have concluded they have the votes and hence don't need to debate anymore.

    Yes that was my take, clearly both camps feeling confident this morning. Sunak surely DOES have the votes, I wouldn't put my house on Truss having them - but could be some Mordaunt -> Sunak slippage that might help her.
    I think so, though I think it will still be close for her. It shows confidence though.
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    MISTY said:

    Is anyone thinking Sunak will pull off a victory in 2024? May I know your reasons?

    Do you mean most seats or majority?
    I think he could certainly get the Tories close to a 2010 seat result (for them not the others!). How? If CoL is cushioned by interventions and inflation comes down fairly quick. Excess strike action may drive support to the government from some, especially if Labour are seen to be supportive of disruption. Fear of change, barratuve switchuig to SKS 'suitability', especially if he struggles to lay a glove early on. Swingback, giveaway budget. Triple lock securing grey vote........

    And i guess if 2010 is possible its a fairly small over performance ftom there to 2017 or 2015 results

    But im not predicting this at this stage, it is however very possible to plot this path

    Sunak goes around like he's just been thrust into office in a landslide after a Corbynite government trashed the economy. He acts like he just picked up a 'there's no money left' note.


    But that did not happen. It wasn't a big boy that did it and ran away. It was him.

    The voters know it. They also know that there will always be a reason why Rishi can't give you your money back. Right now its inflation. In two years it will be some other crisis.

    Sunak is the nightmare choice for the tories, if they only knew it.
    Sunak is a bad choice for the Conservatives. Apart from being Mr Economy when the economy isn't going well, he really isn't the right casting for austerity measures. And he is remarkably chippy when people
    question him.


    On the other hand, the alternatives may well all be worse. As we are seeing.
    He is very chippy - he’s like Pissy Corbyn without the beard
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897

    kle4 said:

    No debate? Boo.

    I dont know why they are concerned about infighting. You're supposed to infight at such times. It still exists even if theres no debate.

    Yeah but they are verging on screaming 'c***' in each others faces.
    Ok, not litreally, but they are effectively trepanning themselves to try and let out the demons
    But likes and clicks are what the media are looking for. The negative effect on democracy itself is merely a sideshow.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,984

    The office Met Office weather station that has the most bucolic setting has to be Faversham. It's set amid the orchards at the Brogdale Trust – a living national archive of English apples. There are some weird and wonderful varieties found there.

    (Faversham did hold the record for 16 years – 10 Aug 2003 – until it was cruelly stolen by Cambridge in 2019. I'm not sure that city centre or airport temperatures should count. Urban Heat Island is cheating, surely?)

    I thought the Cambridge record was at the Botanic Garden? You'd be surprised at how quickly the temperature can drop off in a green space.
    It might well be, fair enough if so.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,745
    edited July 2022

    kle4 said:

    No debate? Boo.

    I dont know why they are concerned about infighting. You're supposed to infight at such times. It still exists even if theres no debate.

    Yeah but they are verging on screaming 'c***' in each others faces.
    Ok, not litreally, but they are effectively trepanning themselves to try and let out the demons
    Good. They anonymously brief the media to do that anyway, it doesn't fool anyone.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,060

    This is the poll they're all talking about

    Penny's rounding looks different

    Musnet (whatever that is) says "poll" now closed, and gives Tug & PM both 26% no decimals.

    https://www.mumsnet.com/articles/poll-who-do-you-want-to-win-the-tory-leadership-contest
    It seems to be just a voodoo poll.
    Like ConHome survey? Ice cream poll - which actually sounds pretty good from UK perspective today!
    ConHome's methodology is slightly more sophisticated.
    Emphasis on "slightly"? Or does anyone know what their method actually is?
    They survey a panel of party members.

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/06/03/how-our-eve-of-ballot-survey-during-the-last-leadership-contest-had-the-winners-total-to-within-a-point/
    What makes the make up of the panel correct? Are they conscious about regional biases?
    It's not a balanced sample but it is consistent and doesn't allow double voting or other manipulation.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,997

    We need a massive state investment into the railways to ensure they are safe as the climate emergency gets worse.

    And it would put a lot of people to work and could be a Brexit benefit with state aid.

    F**k that, we already have massive state subsidies of the railways.

    We should instead be looking to eliminate state subsidies and let people who choose to use railways pay their own way.

    If railways are so terribly uneconomic and inefficient that their users can't pay their own way, then stop investing in them.
    The cost is the competitive private operator structure. State subsidy quintupled vs BR days. So much of that can be removed by abolishing all of the contractual shite and go back to running a railway.

    I do like your idea about scrapping subsidy though. Lets do the same for roads - have people pay their way. Then the police and ambulance and army...
    'State subsidy quintupled .

    That depends on many things. For one thing, your figures almost certainly include billions spent on enhancements each year, such as HS2 and/or Crossrail and/or other capacity improvements. For another, passenger usage has over doubled (and is massively up despite Covid), so subsidy per passenger is much less marked. It also varies massively year-on-year, so it looks much better if you compare (say) 1991-2 with today rather than 1995-1996 with today.

    https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/media/1548/rail-finance-statistical-release-2018-19.pdf
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,622
    edited July 2022
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,745

    kle4 said:

    No debate? Boo.

    I dont know why they are concerned about infighting. You're supposed to infight at such times. It still exists even if theres no debate.

    Maybe not concerns to party from disagreement, maybe concerned some of the questions they are being asked is flagging up their weaknesses in this contest.
    More plausible as an explanation.
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    FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 3,886

    The office Met Office weather station that has the most bucolic setting has to be Faversham. It's set amid the orchards at the Brogdale Trust – a living national archive of English apples. There are some weird and wonderful varieties found there.

    (Faversham did hold the record for 16 years – 10 Aug 2003 – until it was cruelly stolen by Cambridge in 2019. I'm not sure that city centre or airport temperatures should count. Urban Heat Island is cheating, surely?)

    I thought the Cambridge record was at the Botanic Garden? You'd be surprised at how quickly the temperature can drop off in a green space.
    That Brogdale record is generally regarded as incorrect. There was a large hedge sheltering the weather station plot and it has been calculated that it was over-reading by about 2C.

    The Kew Gardens reading from the same day was much more believable.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897
    Andy_JS said:
    Every Tory MP has now seen the Spectator story, and there’s probably a few of them tapping their phones on Betfair this morning.
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    XipeXipe Posts: 47
    32.1C on a north facing shaded wall at my place in central Lunnun
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,280
    edited July 2022
    Charlwood in Surrey and Northolt both at 31.8 C, as of 1100. The map runs at least an hour behind.

    Here the sea breeze is getting going and pushed us back to 24 C
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    state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,417
    I think I will have to bow out of this site for a couple of days -let me know when it has turned back to politics rather than weather obsession.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    Farooq said:

    kyf_100 said:

    We need a massive state investment into the railways to ensure they are safe as the climate emergency gets worse.

    And it would put a lot of people to work and could be a Brexit benefit with state aid.

    Subsidise e-bikes. Create separate cycle lanes completely sectioned off from roads through town centres and out to the suburbs. Treat them like tube lines, but in every city.

    Free park and ride in every city, starting 2 miles out of centre. Penalise car use in every city centre, congestion charge as needed etc.

    Government subsidised affordable "car share" clubs so people can rent car use by the hour, up to a certain numbers of hours, per week. Costs increasing per each additional hour.

    Invest in high speed maglev / hyperloop tech for fast city to city travel, cost and nimbys be damned. Plus motorway road pricing per mile.

    Ultimately 20th (and 21st) century life is structured entirely around the motorcar. Our cities are planned around it, our houses are built around it, our offices and out of town shopping centres are designed for it.

    I'm not advocating banning cars, far from it - just trying to imagine what our society might look like if it wasn't structured around the motorcar, and how we might get there.
    That works in urban and suburban areas. Meanwhile out in the sticks we either need bus services (which nobody is willing to pay for) or you're using the car.
    That's fine, that's what park & ride is for. Car gets you to town, bus or bike gets you around town.
    Park and ride sucks
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    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,725
    edited July 2022

    pigeon said:

    We need a massive state investment into the railways to ensure they are safe as the climate emergency gets worse.

    And it would put a lot of people to work and could be a Brexit benefit with state aid.

    F**k that, we already have massive state subsidies of the railways.

    We should instead be looking to eliminate state subsidies and let people who choose to use railways pay their own way.

    If railways are so terribly uneconomic and inefficient that their users can't pay their own way, then stop investing in them.
    You could say that about all sorts of things which fall broadly within the definition of a social good. All that running down public transport does is to maroon the poor and force everyone else to use cars more.

    Let's not become more like the United States.
    Over 80% of the nation uses cars more already and cars are cheaper for most of the "poor" than railways are.

    Subsidised railways are used by wealthy commuters far more than the "poor".

    However in nations like Japan, where there are no subsidies for the railways but they're ran in the consumers interests instead of politicians, lobbyists or unions interests, they actually have more using railways than cars.
    A few other things that help pull this trick off:

    1) The railways were already mostly built when privatized and the government kept the debt and/or offloaded it on government-run pension funds and things
    2) Planning regulations make it easy to build things especially around stations, and the railway companies are heavily into the real estate business
    3) No socialized parking. Streets are for driving on not parking on, if you want to park then you pay to use a car park
    Very sensible. 👍

    Our planning system is a big part of what's wrong with our country #5346 - I've long advocated Japanese style planning.

    And yes, developing off-road parking is much wiser than parking on the road.

    There really ought to be a sensible symbiosis in ensuring development around your stations goes well, it boosts the value of your development and boosts the value of your station. That planning, railways etc are all state-dominated in this country instead leads to the whole thing being a disjointed mess.

    The state doesn't work efficiently as it is led by lobbyists like unions and NIMBYs instead of businesses getting stuff done that their consumers want.
This discussion has been closed.