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Rishi and Liz looking stronger on the betting markets – politicalbetting.com
Rishi and Liz looking stronger on the betting markets – politicalbetting.com
With a lot more people expected to spend the day indoors then it is likely we will see a fair amount of activity on the next CON leader betting markets. As can be seen both Sunak and Truss got tighter with Mordaunt continuing to edge down. Her position is far worse than it looked a week ago.
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One of Truss or Mordaunt won't make it so there's more uncertainty backing either of those.
I am not a number.
(Unfortunately, my Finnish is next to non-existent, so am limited to finlandssvenska media.)
"Barristers in England and Wales stage first five-day strike over legal aid funding
Members of Criminal Bar Association take fight for a 25% rise in legal aid fees to parliament"
https://www.theguardian.com/law/2022/jul/18/barristers-in-england-and-wales-stage-first-five-day-strike-over-legal-aid-funding
"Huh. To hot to go outside. Suppose I'll have to spend my day having a pop on the Conservative Party leadership contest."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/18/china-banks-told-to-bail-out-property-developers-as-mortgage-boycotts-threaten-economy
Sounds like an outbreak of collective solidarity against the hated landlord class.
Good Communists must bail out property developers.
I'm even drinking a glass of water between my cups of coffee today.
But whatever you're doing, hope you enjoy it. We don't get weather this glorious often enough so make the most of it, and stay hydrated.
I'll let you know how I get on cycling home for 10km in 40 degree heat, I expect that glorious may not be my preferred choice of adjective.
Given that the Government tabled it, you'd normally expect them to move it, but I assume they will pass this job across to Starmer?
2.22 Rishi Sunak. 45%
3.65 Penny Mordaunt 27%
4.8 Liz Truss 21%
16.5 Kemi Badenoch 6%
150 Tom Tugendhat
Next Conservative leader
2.16 Rishi Sunak 46%
3.7 Penny Mordaunt 27%
4.7 Liz Truss 21%
17 Kemi Badenoch 6%
200 Tom Tugendhat
To be in final two
1.05 Rishi Sunak 95%
1.6 Penny Mordaunt 63%
2.4 Liz Truss 42%
9 Kemi Badenoch 11%
100 Tom Tugendhat
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/revealed-penny-mordaunt-s-hidden-equalities-agenda
“We have a lot to get done so what I think we need to demonstrate is our hunger to get those things done. And we are facing some really difficult times. In the Equalities Office I’ve got a growing list of legislation, some of which I can’t even be seen to be helping with. So we have to be really smart about how we do that. And it is difficult but we have to keep the pace up, in fact we have got to pick up the pace on these issues because that is what the country wants. The country is changing, society is changing. And we need to be ahead of that.”
As someone who grew up downunder, so is used to 40C weather, I find the perpetually Moaning Myrtles who are complaining about people going to the beach in this weather, or even suggesting the beaches should be closed, absolutely hilarious.
Yeah, I'm sure Bondi Beach would be utterly deserted every time the weather is this glorious (!) 🤦♂️
People have to pay hundreds or thousands of pounds to travel to enjoy weather this good normally. If you do go out just bring with you plenty of sunscreen and water in a cooler, and enjoy it! Make the most of it.
My lilies opened today and are looking rather lovelier than the paint job on the wall behind!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/december/14/newsid_2559000/2559489.stm
There's a LibDem amendment down, adding a call for the PM to resign, which I assume the Speaker will not take.
https://twitter.com/nadinedorries/status/1548913339157434369
I have a whattsapp exchange from when I tried to reach out where Penny again, dismisses the issue of erasing the words ‘mother and woman’ and replacing with person instead urging me to focus not on that, but on the positives.
I called her, she told me that the legal position re equalities act meant a woman could not be referred to as a woman or a mother in legislation.
This was untrue.
I mention this because xi pi is Chinese for hippy.
https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/17/the-complete-run-offs-from-our-next-tory-leader-survey-badenoch-first-truss-second-sunak-third-mordaunt-fourth-tugendhat-fifth/
I mean it's her own fault for dissembling, but there is a level of concerted vitriol based on relatively little.
I'll go for Coningsby.
Looking up the current temperature in Sheffield it's 24 according to MSN weather, 28 by Google and either 24 or 26 according to how zoomed on Windy it is (ECMWF) or 27 if you switch to GFS.
I get forecasting isn't exact, but surely the current temperature should be in agreement ?
You were adamant that the "traitor" Sunak had no chance due to prior polls only about a week ago, remember?
quantophrenia - (noun, uncountable)
1 - Excessive reliance on or use of facts and figures that can be derived using statistical or mathematical procedures.
2 - The inappropriate application of such processes, especially in anthropology and sociology.
quantophrenic is the adjective, and the noun for one who suffers from it
When it comes to the political betting markets, not only do a lot of us actively bet on them - and so influence the odds - but also there are plenty of lurkers who are likely to take their cue from what we are saying / thinking about who is best placed. It's therefore entirely possible that a fair degree of what we are seeing on the markets reflects the comments in here.
What got me thinking about this is the piece this morning from The Telegraph's writers about who they thought came out best / worst. It's certainly a lot different from many of the comments expressed on here last night:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/07/18/who-won-tory-leadership-debate-itv-truss-mordaunt-sunak/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/sales-of-the-spectator-surge-16-per-cent-to-another-all-time-high
Qualitative research seems to have gone out of fashion since Tony’s infamous focus groups.
Too dear, or just unreported these days?
The article is paywalled.
The main reason he leads Mordaunt by 2% is Mordaunt is now seen as too woke and pro trans after heavy media attacks and attacks from rival campaigns. Facing Mordaunt in the last 2 is therefore his best chance of winning the membership vote
It's remarkably close to @Cyclefree - was that deliberate?
There are more observations on the Weather Observations Website (WOW), but not all of those will necessarily be well sited for high quality observations. https://wow.metoffice.gov.uk/
Even on there you can't see readings of 25-33C in the Greater Sheffield area. This will vary depending on the site location, quality of the radiation shielding on the instrument, etc.
Rishi and Liz pulling out of the next debate
Those who thought the Mussolini trick couldn’t be pulled again ought to have a good look at these propaganda sheets, because fascism is clearly their driving motor.
Anything much happened whilst I've been away?
All last week Sky seemed to be pushing Mordaunt as hard as they could. Never seen broadcast media with such an editorial line before during a vote.
Strong Theresa May vibes.
The Tories are on their way to opposition.
Central LAAAAAAAAndan the hottest at the moment. 34 C by 10:15 !
...in Tory members' dreams.
https://wow.metoffice.gov.uk/observations/details/20220718mpfmxzagqhe65pqtyyb96sppnc
The official observation is quite a bit cooler (at 8am), and from the change over time I'd guess the WOW observation has caught a bit of sun on their temperature sensor.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/observations/gcnsfxv5m
Would be great to see Suella and Rehman give their views on Sunak and Truss (represented by cardboard cut-outs of Blair and Thatcher)
Could see Brogdale pip the North to the post tomorrow too.
ETA I'm not sure if the hide-in-a-fridge vibe will impress MPs but it worked for Boris.
Sydney gets 40C temperatures every year normally, but Bondi does not, just as UK beaches today will not either even if some city centres do.
The temperature at UK beaches today ought to be much lower than it is in city centres like London, just as the temperature at Bondi will be cooler than the temperature in Sydney. 🤦♂️
@algarkirk follow up:
You are one of the "centrist pointers" I look at on this site. I am too leftie (although centre left) to be a good representer so I look to you and a couple of others for the answers.
If you're representative, the Tories are in trouble.
It was 23degC in our bedroom last night, and the same when we got up this morning. Currently 26.4degC where I'm sitting in the corner of the living room, while the Met Office site reckons 26degC shade temperature outside at the moment with a max of 34degC this afternoon and 38degC tomorrow.
Fan doing its job nicely.