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Rishi and Liz looking stronger on the betting markets – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited July 2022 in General
imageRishi and Liz looking stronger on the betting markets – politicalbetting.com

With a lot more people expected to spend the day indoors then it is likely we will see a fair amount of activity on the next CON leader betting markets. As can be seen both Sunak and Truss got tighter with Mordaunt continuing to edge down. Her position is far worse than it looked a week ago.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,840
    edited July 2022
    Sunak at above evens is probably the safest straight bet now as he's pretty much into the run off.
    One of Truss or Mordaunt won't make it so there's more uncertainty backing either of those.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,080
    edited July 2022
    2nd.

    I am not a number.


  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,708
    I still think it will be Sunak v Mordaunt in the last 2, helped by tactical voting from Sunak to knock out Truss
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Cicero said:

    There is a story circulating in Finland which is extremely negative for a key figure in the British Cabinet. I understand that there is considerable litigation underway concerning this story, so for the sake of OGH I will neither report what or who. However, it is extremely serious. Though the various rumoured injunctions and even super injuctions may hold for a while, I think that the story may still break quite soon. The new Conservative leader might be facing a near existential threat to the well being of the party.

    Intriguing. Just had a look through Hufvudstadsbladet - the principal Swedish language newspaper in Finland - and came up a blank. Maybe not in the more old-fashioned media?

    (Unfortunately, my Finnish is next to non-existent, so am limited to finlandssvenska media.)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    Nice day for a strike.

    "Barristers in England and Wales stage first five-day strike over legal aid funding
    Members of Criminal Bar Association take fight for a 25% rise in legal aid fees to parliament"

    https://www.theguardian.com/law/2022/jul/18/barristers-in-england-and-wales-stage-first-five-day-strike-over-legal-aid-funding
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,182
    I know exactly what Mike means - and he is probably right: but I love the implication of the first sentence.
    "Huh. To hot to go outside. Suppose I'll have to spend my day having a pop on the Conservative Party leadership contest."
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    A little trouble in Big China.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/18/china-banks-told-to-bail-out-property-developers-as-mortgage-boycotts-threaten-economy

    Sounds like an outbreak of collective solidarity against the hated landlord class.
    Good Communists must bail out property developers.
  • I wouldn't want to risk gambling on Rishi before we've heard from Ben Wallace. If he goes hitman, he could whack Sunak right out of the race
  • Hope everyone enjoys the really glorious weather today. Its great, make the most of it, and remember to stay hydrated (with water).

    I'm even drinking a glass of water between my cups of coffee today.

    But whatever you're doing, hope you enjoy it. We don't get weather this glorious often enough so make the most of it, and stay hydrated.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,911

    Hope everyone enjoys the really glorious weather today. Its great, make the most of it, and remember to stay hydrated (with water).

    I'm even drinking a glass of water between my cups of coffee today.

    But whatever you're doing, hope you enjoy it. We don't get weather this glorious often enough so make the most of it, and stay hydrated.

    Don't worry we'll be getting plenty more of this "glorious" weather.
    I'll let you know how I get on cycling home for 10km in 40 degree heat, I expect that glorious may not be my preferred choice of adjective.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926

    I wouldn't want to risk gambling on Rishi before we've heard from Ben Wallace. If he goes hitman, he could whack Sunak right out of the race

    Could he? Don't we know (or think we know) what Wallace is going to say?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,840
    Is it just me or does #ReadyforRishi make him sound like a gynaecologist ?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,006
    Pulpstar said:

    Is it just me or does #ReadyforRishi make him sound like a gynaecologist ?

    ewwwwww
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    It looks to me as if the No Confidence debate will start some time around or after 4pm and run through to the vote at 10pm?

    Given that the Government tabled it, you'd normally expect them to move it, but I assume they will pass this job across to Starmer?
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,571
    HYUFD said:

    I still think it will be Sunak v Mordaunt in the last 2, helped by tactical voting from Sunak to knock out Truss

    What makes you so convinced that Sunak would prefer to face Mordaunt rather than Truss? Earlier YouGov polling of Tory members on 12/13 July showed that he was way behind (28% to 67%) in a head to head against Mordaunt, but less so against Truss (35% to 59%).
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    Betfair next prime minister
    2.22 Rishi Sunak. 45%
    3.65 Penny Mordaunt 27%
    4.8 Liz Truss 21%
    16.5 Kemi Badenoch 6%
    150 Tom Tugendhat

    Next Conservative leader
    2.16 Rishi Sunak 46%
    3.7 Penny Mordaunt 27%
    4.7 Liz Truss 21%
    17 Kemi Badenoch 6%
    200 Tom Tugendhat

    To be in final two
    1.05 Rishi Sunak 95%
    1.6 Penny Mordaunt 63%
    2.4 Liz Truss 42%
    9 Kemi Badenoch 11%
    100 Tom Tugendhat
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited July 2022
    The Spectator have got Penny, she could get knocked out today.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/revealed-penny-mordaunt-s-hidden-equalities-agenda

    “We have a lot to get done so what I think we need to demonstrate is our hunger to get those things done. And we are facing some really difficult times. In the Equalities Office I’ve got a growing list of legislation, some of which I can’t even be seen to be helping with. So we have to be really smart about how we do that. And it is difficult but we have to keep the pace up, in fact we have got to pick up the pace on these issues because that is what the country wants. The country is changing, society is changing. And we need to be ahead of that.”
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,154
    edited July 2022

    Hope everyone enjoys the really glorious weather today. Its great, make the most of it, and remember to stay hydrated (with water).

    I'm even drinking a glass of water between my cups of coffee today.

    But whatever you're doing, hope you enjoy it. We don't get weather this glorious often enough so make the most of it, and stay hydrated.

    Don't worry we'll be getting plenty more of this "glorious" weather.
    I'll let you know how I get on cycling home for 10km in 40 degree heat, I expect that glorious may not be my preferred choice of adjective.
    I hope we do indeed get more of this good weather. 👍

    As someone who grew up downunder, so is used to 40C weather, I find the perpetually Moaning Myrtles who are complaining about people going to the beach in this weather, or even suggesting the beaches should be closed, absolutely hilarious.

    Yeah, I'm sure Bondi Beach would be utterly deserted every time the weather is this glorious (!) 🤦‍♂️

    People have to pay hundreds or thousands of pounds to travel to enjoy weather this good normally. If you do go out just bring with you plenty of sunscreen and water in a cooler, and enjoy it! Make the most of it.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    Weather predictions please. Which place will get the highest temperature today?

    I'm going to guess Baginton (just south of Coventry)
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,006
    IanB2 said:

    It looks to me as if the No Confidence debate will start some time around or after 4pm and run through to the vote at 10pm?

    Given that the Government tabled it, you'd normally expect them to move it, but I assume they will pass this job across to Starmer?

    Is it a confidence motion? Or a no-confidence motion?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,840
    edited July 2022

    HYUFD said:

    I still think it will be Sunak v Mordaunt in the last 2, helped by tactical voting from Sunak to knock out Truss

    What makes you so convinced that Sunak would prefer to face Mordaunt rather than Truss? Earlier YouGov polling of Tory members on 12/13 July showed that he was way behind (28% to 67%) in a head to head against Mordaunt, but less so against Truss (35% to 59%).
    Mordaunt's progress since then has looked like Russia's initial Kyiv invasion. NLAWed and Bayraktared by the Telegraph, Mail and Speccie.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,840
    Farooq said:

    Weather predictions please. Which place will get the highest temperature today?

    I'm going to guess Baginton (just south of Coventry)

    Goole.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,911

    Hope everyone enjoys the really glorious weather today. Its great, make the most of it, and remember to stay hydrated (with water).

    I'm even drinking a glass of water between my cups of coffee today.

    But whatever you're doing, hope you enjoy it. We don't get weather this glorious often enough so make the most of it, and stay hydrated.

    Don't worry we'll be getting plenty more of this "glorious" weather.
    I'll let you know how I get on cycling home for 10km in 40 degree heat, I expect that glorious may not be my preferred choice of adjective.
    I hope we do indeed get more of this good weather. 👍

    As someone who grew up downunder, so is used to 40C weather, I find the perpetually Moaning Myrtles who are complaining about people going to the beach in this weather, or even suggesting the beaches should be closed, absolutely hilarious.

    Yeah, I'm sure Bondi Beach would be utterly deserted every time the weather is this glorious (!) 🤦‍♂️

    People have to pay hundreds or thousands of pounds to travel to enjoy weather this good normally. If you do go out just bring with you plenty of sunscreen and water in a cooler, and enjoy it! Make the most of it.
    Are you sure it's water you're drinking?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,226

    I wouldn't want to risk gambling on Rishi before we've heard from Ben Wallace. If he goes hitman, he could whack Sunak right out of the race

    Cicero hasn’t hinted at whether this story directly impacts the leadership race. Given the Finns think it a story worth talking about, I’d guess it either concerns Wallace, Sunak or Truss. Were I betting, I’d be minded to back Truss for Pm at this point. Too much background risk for Sunak I think.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    Hope everyone enjoys the really glorious weather today. Its great, make the most of it, and remember to stay hydrated (with water).

    I'm even drinking a glass of water between my cups of coffee today.

    But whatever you're doing, hope you enjoy it. We don't get weather this glorious often enough so make the most of it, and stay hydrated.

    Don't worry we'll be getting plenty more of this "glorious" weather.
    I'll let you know how I get on cycling home for 10km in 40 degree heat, I expect that glorious may not be my preferred choice of adjective.
    I hope we do indeed get more of this good weather. 👍

    As someone who grew up downunder, so is used to 40C weather, I find the perpetually Moaning Myrtles who are complaining about people going to the beach in this weather, or even suggesting the beaches should be closed, absolutely hilarious.

    Yeah, I'm sure Bondi Beach would be utterly deserted every time the weather is this glorious (!) 🤦‍♂️

    People have to pay hundreds or thousands of pounds to travel to enjoy weather this good normally. If you do go out just bring with you plenty of sunscreen and water in a cooler, and enjoy it! Make the most of it.
    It should be noted that Moaning Myrtle actually literally died
  • My yarden [sic] is loving the weather, so long as I keep it well watered. I think I'm going to have to water it four times today. My cucumbers are growing crazily; all the ones in the pic have roughly doubled in size in the last two days

    My lilies opened today and are looking rather lovelier than the paint job on the wall behind!




  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,143

    I wouldn't want to risk gambling on Rishi before we've heard from Ben Wallace. If he goes hitman, he could whack Sunak right out of the race

    Wallace was hyped before he said he wasn't standing. He's now being hyped as the ultimate kingmaker. I suspect there will be no sudden, decisive Wallace intervention.
  • IanB2 said:

    It looks to me as if the No Confidence debate will start some time around or after 4pm and run through to the vote at 10pm?

    Given that the Government tabled it, you'd normally expect them to move it, but I assume they will pass this job across to Starmer?

    Governments have tabled votes of confidence in the past.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/december/14/newsid_2559000/2559489.stm
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    IanB2 said:

    It looks to me as if the No Confidence debate will start some time around or after 4pm and run through to the vote at 10pm?

    Given that the Government tabled it, you'd normally expect them to move it, but I assume they will pass this job across to Starmer?

    Is it a confidence motion? Or a no-confidence motion?
    Yes, you are right, it's a confidence motion. So the government will move, presumably the lying clown himself?

    There's a LibDem amendment down, adding a call for the PM to resign, which I assume the Speaker will not take.
  • Farooq said:

    Hope everyone enjoys the really glorious weather today. Its great, make the most of it, and remember to stay hydrated (with water).

    I'm even drinking a glass of water between my cups of coffee today.

    But whatever you're doing, hope you enjoy it. We don't get weather this glorious often enough so make the most of it, and stay hydrated.

    Don't worry we'll be getting plenty more of this "glorious" weather.
    I'll let you know how I get on cycling home for 10km in 40 degree heat, I expect that glorious may not be my preferred choice of adjective.
    I hope we do indeed get more of this good weather. 👍

    As someone who grew up downunder, so is used to 40C weather, I find the perpetually Moaning Myrtles who are complaining about people going to the beach in this weather, or even suggesting the beaches should be closed, absolutely hilarious.

    Yeah, I'm sure Bondi Beach would be utterly deserted every time the weather is this glorious (!) 🤦‍♂️

    People have to pay hundreds or thousands of pounds to travel to enjoy weather this good normally. If you do go out just bring with you plenty of sunscreen and water in a cooler, and enjoy it! Make the most of it.
    It should be noted that Moaning Myrtle actually literally died
    Which still wasn't enough to stop her moaning . . .
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    Sandpit said:

    The Spectator have got Penny, she could get knocked out today.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/revealed-penny-mordaunt-s-hidden-equalities-agenda

    “We have a lot to get done so what I think we need to demonstrate is our hunger to get those things done. And we are facing some really difficult times. In the Equalities Office I’ve got a growing list of legislation, some of which I can’t even be seen to be helping with. So we have to be really smart about how we do that. And it is difficult but we have to keep the pace up, in fact we have got to pick up the pace on these issues because that is what the country wants. The country is changing, society is changing. And we need to be ahead of that.”

    Thin gruel. Not even the Spectator leads on it. There is no smoking gun in the whole article that suggests, let alone proves, the Mordaunt has lied about anything.
    +1. And they have a tiny readership and are mostly off-the-scale nuts in any case.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Cicero said:

    There is a story circulating in Finland which is extremely negative for a key figure in the British Cabinet. I understand that there is considerable litigation underway concerning this story, so for the sake of OGH I will neither report what or who. However, it is extremely serious. Though the various rumoured injunctions and even super injuctions may hold for a while, I think that the story may still break quite soon. The new Conservative leader might be facing a near existential threat to the well being of the party.

    Blimey. This is where we need Leon and his amazing twitter skills, so it is a shame about his ban.
    What’s he banned for this time?
    He isn't banned. Merely regenerated.
    The word “ban” was used both yesterday and today, by different posters, so forgive my confusion.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    I wouldn't want to risk gambling on Rishi before we've heard from Ben Wallace. If he goes hitman, he could whack Sunak right out of the race

    Wallace was hyped before he said he wasn't standing. He's now being hyped as the ultimate kingmaker. I suspect there will be no sudden, decisive Wallace intervention.
    If there is going to be some smoking gun, then it needs to be out today. It would be a terrible look for the party as a whole, if some scandal about one of the candidates was used to try and bounce the membership vote.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    We had continental-style wooden shutters fitted in all our main rooms a few weeks ago. It really is lovely and cool.
    Is there a PB award for smug post of the year?

    Not even top 500.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    Nadine Dorries joins the pile in on Penny.

    https://twitter.com/nadinedorries/status/1548913339157434369

    I have a whattsapp exchange from when I tried to reach out where Penny again, dismisses the issue of erasing the words ‘mother and woman’ and replacing with person instead urging me to focus not on that, but on the positives.

    I called her, she told me that the legal position re equalities act meant a woman could not be referred to as a woman or a mother in legislation.
    This was untrue.


  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    How do you pronounce the new re-generation?
    I mention this because xi pi is Chinese for hippy.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263

    Sandpit said:

    The Spectator have got Penny, she could get knocked out today.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/revealed-penny-mordaunt-s-hidden-equalities-agenda

    “We have a lot to get done so what I think we need to demonstrate is our hunger to get those things done. And we are facing some really difficult times. In the Equalities Office I’ve got a growing list of legislation, some of which I can’t even be seen to be helping with. So we have to be really smart about how we do that. And it is difficult but we have to keep the pace up, in fact we have got to pick up the pace on these issues because that is what the country wants. The country is changing, society is changing. And we need to be ahead of that.”

    Thin gruel. Not even the Spectator leads on it. There is no smoking gun in the whole article that suggests, let alone proves, the Mordaunt has lied about anything.
    Agreed. I'm not a fan but it's a hit job by people who don't like her.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 3,853
    edited July 2022
    Pulpstar said:

    Farooq said:

    Weather predictions please. Which place will get the highest temperature today?

    I'm going to guess Baginton (just south of Coventry)

    Goole.
    Goole tomorrow I think (official Met station at Cawood, nr Selby?). Today might be a chance for Cheltenham to take the record back (for a day).
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038

    We had continental-style wooden shutters fitted in all our main rooms a few weeks ago. It really is lovely and cool.
    Is there a PB award for smug post of the year?

    Not even top 500.
    What if we rule out all of @Leon 's travel posts?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,708

    HYUFD said:

    I still think it will be Sunak v Mordaunt in the last 2, helped by tactical voting from Sunak to knock out Truss

    What makes you so convinced that Sunak would prefer to face Mordaunt rather than Truss? Earlier YouGov polling of Tory members on 12/13 July showed that he was way behind (28% to 67%) in a head to head against Mordaunt, but less so against Truss (35% to 59%).
    He still trails Truss but narrowly leads Mordaunt

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/17/the-complete-run-offs-from-our-next-tory-leader-survey-badenoch-first-truss-second-sunak-third-mordaunt-fourth-tugendhat-fifth/
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    Is there any possibility that there may be a sympathy vote for Penny here?
    I mean it's her own fault for dissembling, but there is a level of concerted vitriol based on relatively little.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    Farooq said:

    Weather predictions please. Which place will get the highest temperature today?

    I'm going to guess Baginton (just south of Coventry)

    There isn't a Met Office observation site there. Check the map of observation sites at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-synoptic-and-climate-stations

    I'll go for Coningsby.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    I still think it will be Sunak v Mordaunt in the last 2, helped by tactical voting from Sunak to knock out Truss

    What makes you so convinced that Sunak would prefer to face Mordaunt rather than Truss? Earlier YouGov polling of Tory members on 12/13 July showed that he was way behind (28% to 67%) in a head to head against Mordaunt, but less so against Truss (35% to 59%).
    Mordaunt's progress since then has looked like Russia's initial Kyiv invasion. NLAWed and Bayraktared by the Telegraph, Mail and Speccie.
    Full week of character assassination in the right wing media will do that.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,840
    edited July 2022
    Hmm..

    Looking up the current temperature in Sheffield it's 24 according to MSN weather, 28 by Google and either 24 or 26 according to how zoomed on Windy it is (ECMWF) or 27 if you switch to GFS.

    I get forecasting isn't exact, but surely the current temperature should be in agreement ?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    We had continental-style wooden shutters fitted in all our main rooms a few weeks ago. It really is lovely and cool.
    Is there a PB award for smug post of the year?

    Not even top 500.
    What if we rule out all of @Leon 's travel posts?
    You’ve still got several hundred from a “lawyer” who loves slagging off working class mothers struggling on a tight budget.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    On LBC James O'B is on holiday so today's stand-in presenter is.... doof! doof! ...Angela Rayner!
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I still think it will be Sunak v Mordaunt in the last 2, helped by tactical voting from Sunak to knock out Truss

    What makes you so convinced that Sunak would prefer to face Mordaunt rather than Truss? Earlier YouGov polling of Tory members on 12/13 July showed that he was way behind (28% to 67%) in a head to head against Mordaunt, but less so against Truss (35% to 59%).
    He still trails Truss but narrowly leads Mordaunt

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/17/the-complete-run-offs-from-our-next-tory-leader-survey-badenoch-first-truss-second-sunak-third-mordaunt-fourth-tugendhat-fifth/
    Its almost as if polls change, who could foresee that?

    You were adamant that the "traitor" Sunak had no chance due to prior polls only about a week ago, remember?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    The Spectator have got Penny, she could get knocked out today.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/revealed-penny-mordaunt-s-hidden-equalities-agenda

    “We have a lot to get done so what I think we need to demonstrate is our hunger to get those things done. And we are facing some really difficult times. In the Equalities Office I’ve got a growing list of legislation, some of which I can’t even be seen to be helping with. So we have to be really smart about how we do that. And it is difficult but we have to keep the pace up, in fact we have got to pick up the pace on these issues because that is what the country wants. The country is changing, society is changing. And we need to be ahead of that.”

    Thin gruel. Not even the Spectator leads on it. There is no smoking gun in the whole article that suggests, let alone proves, the Mordaunt has lied about anything.
    +1. And they have a tiny readership and are mostly off-the-scale nuts in any case.
    Spectator has a tiny readership?
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,154
    edited July 2022
    IanB2 said:

    On LBC James O'B is on holiday so today's stand-in presenter is.... doof! doof! ...Angela Rayner!

    Why've they replaced him with someone so much more right wing and friendly to the Tories than he is?
  • My proposal for PB Word Of The Day

    quantophrenia - (noun, uncountable)

    1 - Excessive reliance on or use of facts and figures that can be derived using statistical or mathematical procedures.
    2 - The inappropriate application of such processes, especially in anthropology and sociology.

    quantophrenic is the adjective, and the noun for one who suffers from it
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Re using the betting markets - how much are we in danger of a circular loop effect here?

    When it comes to the political betting markets, not only do a lot of us actively bet on them - and so influence the odds - but also there are plenty of lurkers who are likely to take their cue from what we are saying / thinking about who is best placed. It's therefore entirely possible that a fair degree of what we are seeing on the markets reflects the comments in here.

    What got me thinking about this is the piece this morning from The Telegraph's writers about who they thought came out best / worst. It's certainly a lot different from many of the comments expressed on here last night:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/07/18/who-won-tory-leadership-debate-itv-truss-mordaunt-sunak/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    IanB2 said:

    On LBC James O'B is on holiday so today's stand-in presenter is.... doof! doof! ...Angela Rayner!

    Angela’s leg activity perhaps more family-friendly on the wireless?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    dixiedean said:

    Is there any possibility that there may be a sympathy vote for Penny here?
    I mean it's her own fault for dissembling, but there is a level of concerted vitriol based on relatively little.

    Aiui the vote will follow hustings for MPs before this afternoon's vote; it is possible information might leak from there.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    The Spectator have got Penny, she could get knocked out today.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/revealed-penny-mordaunt-s-hidden-equalities-agenda

    “We have a lot to get done so what I think we need to demonstrate is our hunger to get those things done. And we are facing some really difficult times. In the Equalities Office I’ve got a growing list of legislation, some of which I can’t even be seen to be helping with. So we have to be really smart about how we do that. And it is difficult but we have to keep the pace up, in fact we have got to pick up the pace on these issues because that is what the country wants. The country is changing, society is changing. And we need to be ahead of that.”

    Thin gruel. Not even the Spectator leads on it. There is no smoking gun in the whole article that suggests, let alone proves, the Mordaunt has lied about anything.
    +1. And they have a tiny readership and are mostly off-the-scale nuts in any case.
    Spectator has a tiny readership?
    Over 100k per week, one of the top selling magazines in the country. Among Tory MPs, it’s going to be very high indeed.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/sales-of-the-spectator-surge-16-per-cent-to-another-all-time-high
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    My proposal for PB Word Of The Day

    quantophrenia - (noun, uncountable)

    1 - Excessive reliance on or use of facts and figures that can be derived using statistical or mathematical procedures.
    2 - The inappropriate application of such processes, especially in anthropology and sociology.

    quantophrenic is the adjective, and the noun for one who suffers from it

    Sociology including psephology.

    Qualitative research seems to have gone out of fashion since Tony’s infamous focus groups.

    Too dear, or just unreported these days?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,840
    edited July 2022
    MrEd said:

    Re using the betting markets - how much are we in danger of a circular loop effect here?

    When it comes to the political betting markets, not only do a lot of us actively bet on them - and so influence the odds - but also there are plenty of lurkers who are likely to take their cue from what we are saying / thinking about who is best placed. It's therefore entirely possible that a fair degree of what we are seeing on the markets reflects the comments in here.

    What got me thinking about this is the piece this morning from The Telegraph's writers about who they thought came out best / worst. It's certainly a lot different from many of the comments expressed on here last night:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/07/18/who-won-tory-leadership-debate-itv-truss-mordaunt-sunak/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr

    I think this effect was very much in play with Kemi Badenoch the last few days.

    The article is paywalled.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,911

    My proposal for PB Word Of The Day

    quantophrenia - (noun, uncountable)

    1 - Excessive reliance on or use of facts and figures that can be derived using statistical or mathematical procedures.
    2 - The inappropriate application of such processes, especially in anthropology and sociology.

    quantophrenic is the adjective, and the noun for one who suffers from it

    I would say that quantophobia is the more serious problem in this country.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,708

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I still think it will be Sunak v Mordaunt in the last 2, helped by tactical voting from Sunak to knock out Truss

    What makes you so convinced that Sunak would prefer to face Mordaunt rather than Truss? Earlier YouGov polling of Tory members on 12/13 July showed that he was way behind (28% to 67%) in a head to head against Mordaunt, but less so against Truss (35% to 59%).
    He still trails Truss but narrowly leads Mordaunt

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/17/the-complete-run-offs-from-our-next-tory-leader-survey-badenoch-first-truss-second-sunak-third-mordaunt-fourth-tugendhat-fifth/
    Its almost as if polls change, who could foresee that?

    You were adamant that the "traitor" Sunak had no chance due to prior polls only about a week ago, remember?
    He still doesn't against Truss on that survey and is trounced by Badenoch 60% to 34%.

    The main reason he leads Mordaunt by 2% is Mordaunt is now seen as too woke and pro trans after heavy media attacks and attacks from rival campaigns. Facing Mordaunt in the last 2 is therefore his best chance of winning the membership vote
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    IanB2 said:

    On LBC James O'B is on holiday so today's stand-in presenter is.... doof! doof! ...Angela Rayner!

    Angela’s leg activity perhaps more family-friendly on the wireless?
    First thing she says is that she's doing PMQs this week, and the Speaker should let each of the contenders go three rounds with her....
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926

    We had continental-style wooden shutters fitted in all our main rooms a few weeks ago. It really is lovely and cool.
    Is there a PB award for smug post of the year?

    Not even top 500.
    What if we rule out all of @Leon 's travel posts?
    You’ve still got several hundred from a “lawyer” who loves slagging off working class mothers struggling on a tight budget.
    tbf, he did reverse ferret on that one.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    dixiedean said:

    Is there any possibility that there may be a sympathy vote for Penny here?
    I mean it's her own fault for dissembling, but there is a level of concerted vitriol based on relatively little.

    Aiui the vote will follow hustings for MPs before this afternoon's vote; it is possible information might leak from there.
    8pm announcement, I think?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    The Spectator have got Penny, she could get knocked out today.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/revealed-penny-mordaunt-s-hidden-equalities-agenda

    “We have a lot to get done so what I think we need to demonstrate is our hunger to get those things done. And we are facing some really difficult times. In the Equalities Office I’ve got a growing list of legislation, some of which I can’t even be seen to be helping with. So we have to be really smart about how we do that. And it is difficult but we have to keep the pace up, in fact we have got to pick up the pace on these issues because that is what the country wants. The country is changing, society is changing. And we need to be ahead of that.”

    Thin gruel. Not even the Spectator leads on it. There is no smoking gun in the whole article that suggests, let alone proves, the Mordaunt has lied about anything.
    +1. And they have a tiny readership and are mostly off-the-scale nuts in any case.
    It’s not the nuts readership which concerns me, it’s the nuts who write and edit the nasty content. Those folk need help.
  • My proposal for PB Word Of The Day

    quantophrenia - (noun, uncountable)

    1 - Excessive reliance on or use of facts and figures that can be derived using statistical or mathematical procedures.
    2 - The inappropriate application of such processes, especially in anthropology and sociology.

    quantophrenic is the adjective, and the noun for one who suffers from it

    When I was looking at other -phrenia words, I noticed cyclophrenia which is another word for bipolar disorder

    It's remarkably close to @Cyclefree - was that deliberate?
  • I think it will be Sunak v Truss. Penny is going one way and that's down.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    MrEd said:

    Re using the betting markets - how much are we in danger of a circular loop effect here?

    When it comes to the political betting markets, not only do a lot of us actively bet on them - and so influence the odds - but also there are plenty of lurkers who are likely to take their cue from what we are saying / thinking about who is best placed. It's therefore entirely possible that a fair degree of what we are seeing on the markets reflects the comments in here.

    What got me thinking about this is the piece this morning from The Telegraph's writers about who they thought came out best / worst. It's certainly a lot different from many of the comments expressed on here last night:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/07/18/who-won-tory-leadership-debate-itv-truss-mordaunt-sunak/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr

    The key difference is whether viewers think Mordaunt's attempt to stay on the high ground and appeal for unity went down well, or whether her unwillingness to offer any detail made her seem vague and lightweight?

  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    Pulpstar said:

    Hmm..

    Looking up the current temperature in Sheffield it's 24 according to MSN weather, 28 by Google and either 24 or 26 according to how zoomed on Windy it is (ECMWF) or 27 if you switch to GFS.

    I get forecasting isn't exact, but surely the current temperature should be in agreement ?

    Depends what data they're using and how quickly they're updating it. There's no Met Office observation site in Sheffield, their nearest station is 27 miles away, and it's warming up rapidly this morning, so you'd get a large difference if using the same data but updating it more or less quickly.

    There are more observations on the Weather Observations Website (WOW), but not all of those will necessarily be well sited for high quality observations. https://wow.metoffice.gov.uk/

    Even on there you can't see readings of 25-33C in the Greater Sheffield area. This will vary depending on the site location, quality of the radiation shielding on the instrument, etc.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,708
    edited July 2022

    I think it will be Sunak v Truss. Penny is going one way and that's down.

    Not if Sunak lends MPs to Mordaunt to knock out Truss
  • Bart very rarely likes my posts so I feel I am onto a winner with that one.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    moonshine said:
    Some of us may have suggested last week, that a televised hustings in front of MPs might have been a much better option than media-led ‘debates’ that encourage negativity.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Talking of The Spectator, I recently discovered an even more right wing competitor: The Critic. Absolutely barking mad.

    Those who thought the Mussolini trick couldn’t be pulled again ought to have a good look at these propaganda sheets, because fascism is clearly their driving motor.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Just got back from a few days in the Italian lakes. It was very hot but very agreeable. Nice to get back to the cool of England, though.

    Anything much happened whilst I've been away?
  • moonshine said:
    Interesting that its the Sky debate that they're pulling the plug on.

    All last week Sky seemed to be pushing Mordaunt as hard as they could. Never seen broadcast media with such an editorial line before during a vote.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    MrEd said:

    Re using the betting markets - how much are we in danger of a circular loop effect here?

    When it comes to the political betting markets, not only do a lot of us actively bet on them - and so influence the odds - but also there are plenty of lurkers who are likely to take their cue from what we are saying / thinking about who is best placed. It's therefore entirely possible that a fair degree of what we are seeing on the markets reflects the comments in here.

    What got me thinking about this is the piece this morning from The Telegraph's writers about who they thought came out best / worst. It's certainly a lot different from many of the comments expressed on here last night:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/07/18/who-won-tory-leadership-debate-itv-truss-mordaunt-sunak/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr

    Yes, pb comments and especially its headers influence the markets but polls have a greater impact, as do press and television reports. It does not help that most of the time, most markets are very thin and some bookmakers essentially close down overnight. But pb is at its most valuable in contrarian mode (and when it is right, of course).
  • https://twitter.com/kevinaschofield/status/1548959427931381761

    Strong Theresa May vibes.

    The Tories are on their way to opposition.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,392
    moonshine said:
    So Penny gets to debate with herself.
  • moonshine said:
    So Penny gets to debate with herself.
    She has enough faces to do so.
  • moonshine said:
    So Penny gets to debate with herself.
    I think you mean the person who identifies as themself
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,840
    https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap

    Central LAAAAAAAAndan the hottest at the moment. 34 C by 10:15 !
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,457
    Sandpit said:

    moonshine said:
    Some of us may have suggested last week, that a televised hustings in front of MPs might have been a much better option than media-led ‘debates’ that encourage negativity.
    Possibly, but they'd have had to find a way of excluding Mad Nad from the hustings. Tricky.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited July 2022

    Just got back from a few days in the Italian lakes. It was very hot but very agreeable. Nice to get back to the cool of England, though.

    Anything much happened whilst I've been away?

    We’re delighted we gave Italy a miss this year. We had planned on driving down to Rimini, via the Alps and Dolomites. The hills and lakes would have been great, but definitely not the seaside. Our last minute switch to Cyprus was an absolute boon: it’s gorgeous down here. About 28-29 degrees and lots of swimming in the clear, uncrowded sea and/or the various pools. Pure heaven.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038

    https://twitter.com/kevinaschofield/status/1548959427931381761

    Strong Theresa May vibes.

    The Tories are on their way to opposition.

    Why was Ch4 in particular a mistake?

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    An end to self-indulgent Tory mass debating.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,392

    I think it will be Sunak v Truss. Penny is going one way and that's down.

    Penny going down....

    ...in Tory members' dreams.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Hope everyone enjoys the really glorious weather today. Its great, make the most of it, and remember to stay hydrated (with water).

    I'm even drinking a glass of water between my cups of coffee today.

    But whatever you're doing, hope you enjoy it. We don't get weather this glorious often enough so make the most of it, and stay hydrated.

    Don't worry we'll be getting plenty more of this "glorious" weather.
    I'll let you know how I get on cycling home for 10km in 40 degree heat, I expect that glorious may not be my preferred choice of adjective.
    I hope we do indeed get more of this good weather. 👍

    As someone who grew up downunder, so is used to 40C weather, I find the perpetually Moaning Myrtles who are complaining about people going to the beach in this weather, or even suggesting the beaches should be closed, absolutely hilarious.

    Yeah, I'm sure Bondi Beach would be utterly deserted every time the weather is this glorious (!) 🤦‍♂️

    People have to pay hundreds or thousands of pounds to travel to enjoy weather this good normally. If you do go out just bring with you plenty of sunscreen and water in a cooler, and enjoy it! Make the most of it.
    Average annual max for Bondi Beach is only 27C and it's not like Australians don't whinge like bitches when it hits 40, the very last news thing to happen before covid was a lot of dreary whining from down there about ooh dear me we have set our entire country on fire. Fannies.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    edited July 2022

    Pulpstar said:

    Hmm..

    Looking up the current temperature in Sheffield it's 24 according to MSN weather, 28 by Google and either 24 or 26 according to how zoomed on Windy it is (ECMWF) or 27 if you switch to GFS.

    I get forecasting isn't exact, but surely the current temperature should be in agreement ?

    Depends what data they're using and how quickly they're updating it. There's no Met Office observation site in Sheffield, their nearest station is 27 miles away, and it's warming up rapidly this morning, so you'd get a large difference if using the same data but updating it more or less quickly.

    There are more observations on the Weather Observations Website (WOW), but not all of those will necessarily be well sited for high quality observations. https://wow.metoffice.gov.uk/

    Even on there you can't see readings of 25-33C in the Greater Sheffield area. This will vary depending on the site location, quality of the radiation shielding on the instrument, etc.
    There's this observation for 36.6C (now 37.7C) on the WOW, at Lyneham, but it's a bit out of kilter with other nearby observations.

    https://wow.metoffice.gov.uk/observations/details/20220718mpfmxzagqhe65pqtyyb96sppnc

    The official observation is quite a bit cooler (at 8am), and from the change over time I'd guess the WOW observation has caught a bit of sun on their temperature sensor.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/observations/gcnsfxv5m
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,006
    Surely the grown up thing for Sky would be to invite Penny and all of the already rejected candidates. Like the final of The Apprentice where the discarded get brought back in to remind everyone why they were fired in the first place.

    Would be great to see Suella and Rehman give their views on Sunak and Truss (represented by cardboard cut-outs of Blair and Thatcher)
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    IshmaelZ said:

    Hope everyone enjoys the really glorious weather today. Its great, make the most of it, and remember to stay hydrated (with water).

    I'm even drinking a glass of water between my cups of coffee today.

    But whatever you're doing, hope you enjoy it. We don't get weather this glorious often enough so make the most of it, and stay hydrated.

    Don't worry we'll be getting plenty more of this "glorious" weather.
    I'll let you know how I get on cycling home for 10km in 40 degree heat, I expect that glorious may not be my preferred choice of adjective.
    I hope we do indeed get more of this good weather. 👍

    As someone who grew up downunder, so is used to 40C weather, I find the perpetually Moaning Myrtles who are complaining about people going to the beach in this weather, or even suggesting the beaches should be closed, absolutely hilarious.

    Yeah, I'm sure Bondi Beach would be utterly deserted every time the weather is this glorious (!) 🤦‍♂️

    People have to pay hundreds or thousands of pounds to travel to enjoy weather this good normally. If you do go out just bring with you plenty of sunscreen and water in a cooler, and enjoy it! Make the most of it.
    Average annual max for Bondi Beach is only 27C and it's not like Australians don't whinge like bitches when it hits 40, the very last news thing to happen before covid was a lot of dreary whining from down there about ooh dear me we have set our entire country on fire. Fannies.
    They are dreadful whingers. Especially considering that they have gone out of their way to destroy the natural environment.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    HYUFD said:

    I think it will be Sunak v Truss. Penny is going one way and that's down.

    Not if Sunak lends MPs to Mordaunt to knock out Truss
    How does he know PM will be more beatable than LT in the membership?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,138
    Farooq said:

    Weather predictions please. Which place will get the highest temperature today?

    I'm going to guess Baginton (just south of Coventry)

    Brogdale. There is some nice katabatic warming off the downs this morning and North Kent is shooting up (the temperature that is).

    Could see Brogdale pip the North to the post tomorrow too.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261

    https://twitter.com/kevinaschofield/status/1548959427931381761

    Strong Theresa May vibes.

    The Tories are on their way to opposition.

    Why was Ch4 in particular a mistake?

    Because Truss was poor and only got 7% in the after poll. That tweet is quoting a Trust source.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835

    https://twitter.com/kevinaschofield/status/1548959427931381761

    Strong Theresa May vibes.

    The Tories are on their way to opposition.

    Why was Ch4 in particular a mistake?

    The wokeness of the moderator impinged on their essential righteousness or some such?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    edited July 2022

    https://twitter.com/kevinaschofield/status/1548959427931381761

    Strong Theresa May vibes.

    The Tories are on their way to opposition.

    Why was Ch4 in particular a mistake?

    Team Truss does not like the debate because Liz Truss imploded.

    ETA I'm not sure if the hide-in-a-fridge vibe will impress MPs but it worked for Boris.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,143

    moonshine said:
    So Penny gets to debate with herself.
    I can see it suits Truss to pull out, but why is Sunak doing so?
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,154
    edited July 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    Hope everyone enjoys the really glorious weather today. Its great, make the most of it, and remember to stay hydrated (with water).

    I'm even drinking a glass of water between my cups of coffee today.

    But whatever you're doing, hope you enjoy it. We don't get weather this glorious often enough so make the most of it, and stay hydrated.

    Don't worry we'll be getting plenty more of this "glorious" weather.
    I'll let you know how I get on cycling home for 10km in 40 degree heat, I expect that glorious may not be my preferred choice of adjective.
    I hope we do indeed get more of this good weather. 👍

    As someone who grew up downunder, so is used to 40C weather, I find the perpetually Moaning Myrtles who are complaining about people going to the beach in this weather, or even suggesting the beaches should be closed, absolutely hilarious.

    Yeah, I'm sure Bondi Beach would be utterly deserted every time the weather is this glorious (!) 🤦‍♂️

    People have to pay hundreds or thousands of pounds to travel to enjoy weather this good normally. If you do go out just bring with you plenty of sunscreen and water in a cooler, and enjoy it! Make the most of it.
    Average annual max for Bondi Beach is only 27C and it's not like Australians don't whinge like bitches when it hits 40, the very last news thing to happen before covid was a lot of dreary whining from down there about ooh dear me we have set our entire country on fire. Fannies.
    Yes, you fool, the max is cooler at Bondi, because beaches have cooler temperatures than city centres. That's part of the point.

    Sydney gets 40C temperatures every year normally, but Bondi does not, just as UK beaches today will not either even if some city centres do.

    The temperature at UK beaches today ought to be much lower than it is in city centres like London, just as the temperature at Bondi will be cooler than the temperature in Sydney. 🤦‍♂️
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    moonshine said:
    Clearly forgotten that the choice of next Prime Minister might be of interest to a wider circle than just Tory MPs.
This discussion has been closed.