Which contenders should LAB and the LDs fear most? – politicalbetting.com

System · July 2022

Which contenders should LAB and the LDs fear most? – politicalbetting.com

This is entirely unscientific but I’ve been trying to work out which of the Tory contenders the LDs and LAB would least like to face at the general election.

Read the full story here

SeaShantyIrish2 · July 2022

Yes.

Beibheirli_C · July 2022

None of them. They are all lightweights

SeaShantyIrish2 · July 2022

Is Liz Truss wearing her Maggie Thatcher tribute suit with big bow for all debates?

StuartDickson · July 2022

Mordaunt

DecrepiterJohnL · July 2022

Betfair next prime minister

2.08 Penny Mordaunt 48%
3.05 Rishi Sunak 33%
6.6 Liz Truss 15%
28 Kemi Badenoch
55 Tom Tugendhat
310 Dominic Raab

To make the final two

1.1 Rishi Sunak 91%
1.35 Penny Mordaunt 74%
3.1 Liz Truss 32%
16 Kemi Badenoch 6%
46 Tom Tugendhat

IanB2 · July 2022

Penny, if she can rise to the job, since she is clearly at least 75% human being despite having held some peculiar views in the past. Or Tom, since - from a LibDem perspective - he has the maturity and judgement to see what has gone wrong with the Tory policy positioning since 2015 - but that would be contingent on BOTH his rising to the job and having the authority to stamp his more realistic policy positioning on the nutters in the party - and I’m not yet seeing Kinnock in him, let alone Blair. He’s simply a nice guy who looks around and wonders where all his sensible friends have gone.

TimS · July 2022

FPT

1976: not only were the Synoptics absolutely unique and not yet repeated, but the UK had the biggest warm anomaly of anywhere on earth that summer, with blues on the anomaly map across much of the rest of the planet. Now we are just one bit of a vast sea of red and orange, despite it being a (relatively cool) La Niña year globally.

If we saw June-July Synoptics in 2022 we would get a repeat of 1976, but with temperatures a degree of two higher.

Indeed this morning’s GFS run showed essentially a 1976-style run of hot days from next weekend, 34-36C day after day. Massive outlier big shows what would happen if we ever repeated the pattern.

June 1976 averaged 17.0C in central England, the same as July 2022 so far, before the heatwave.

1976 is the “we survived the blitz” of modern British climate denial.

IanB2 · July 2022

TimS said:
FPT

1976: not only were the Synoptics absolutely unique and not yet repeated, but the UK had the biggest warm anomaly of anywhere on earth that summer, with blues on the anomaly map across much of the rest of the planet. Now we are just one bit of a vast sea of red and orange, despite it being a (relatively cool) La Niña year globally.

If we saw June-July Synoptics in 2022 we would get a repeat of 1976, but with temperatures a degree of two higher.

Indeed this morning’s GFS run showed essentially a 1976-style run of hot days from next weekend, 34-36C day after day. Massive outlier big shows what would happen if we ever repeated the pattern.

June 1976 averaged 17.0C in central England, the same as July 2022 so far, before the heatwave.

1976 is the “we survived the blitz” of modern British climate denial.

But as a child at the time I remember that 1976 went on for ever and ever.

How can a heatwave that starts on Monday and lasts until Tuesday possibly compete?

Although tbf I see the boffins are suggesting we might get a replay the week following.

Razedabode · July 2022

NEW @JLPartnersPolls for The Sunday @Telegraph

We polled a representative sample of 4,500 people and used MrP to model it onto seats - with awareness of candidates factored in.

In 76% of seats the Conservatives won in 2019, Rishi Sunak has the highest net 'good PM' rating (1/6)

.. I’m probably coming around to Rishi being the most competent

Casino_Royale · July 2022

I think opposition parties will say they'll be happy to oppose whichever candidate ends up on top and that candidate A.N.Other would have been the one they would have feared the most.

Scott_xP · July 2022

This is fabulous. Not only is the Rwanda policy ineffective, and illegal, it is also wildly unpopular with Conservative voters...

This is pretty extraordinary. The Rwanda policy to deport refugees is apparently "toxic" to Tory voters in the party's blue wall heartlands yet not one of the five candidates for the party leadership is prepared to speak out against it. https://twitter.com/Simon_Nixon/status/1548285137858596866/photo/1

Casino_Royale · July 2022

What are the odds on Paul Goodman?

StuartDickson · July 2022

Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times

SF 36% (+1)
FF 20% (nc)
FG 18% (-2)
Lab 4% (nc)
Grn 3% (-2)
PBP/S 3% (+1)
SD 2% (nc)
Aon 1% (nc)
oth 14% (+4)

14 July (+/- 8 Dec)

Mexicanpete · July 2022

StuartDickson said:
Mordaunt

Despite what some on here have suggested she was very ordinary in both the ConHome and Ch4 events. Sub-Starmer dreary. Sunak was very polished but he does come with baggage.

Mordaunt shouldn't trouble Starmer or Nippy. However she doesn't scare the Blue wall horses, which might be to her advantage against the LDs.

Peter_the_Punter · July 2022

Razedabode said:
NEW @JLPartnersPolls for The Sunday @Telegraph

We polled a representative sample of 4,500 people and used MrP to model it onto seats - with awareness of candidates factored in.

In 76% of seats the Conservatives won in 2019, Rishi Sunak has the highest net 'good PM' rating (1/6)

.. I’m probably coming around to Rishi being the most competent

Yup, I think that's true and the answer to Mike's hypothetical.

I don't see any candidate who could hope to lead the Conservatives to anything more than opposition with most Parliamentary seats. Rishi has the best chance of doing that; Badenoch might, but may equally prove a catastrophe.

The others would struggle to stave off a Labour majority. Truss would be particularly disastrous but happily for Con supporters that boat appears to have sailed, empty of cargo.

Tugenhat would be awkward for the LDs but he'd be anathema to a large portion of his Party so it doesn't matter; t'aint gonna happen.

StuartDickson · July 2022

Mexicanpete said:

StuartDickson said:
Mordaunt
Despite what some on here have suggested she was very ordinary in both the ConHome and Ch4 events. Sub-Starmer dreary. Sunak was very polished but he does come with baggage.

Mordaunt shouldn't trouble Starmer or Nippy. However she doesn't scare the Blue wall horses, which might be to her advantage against the LDs.

Dreary is flippin fantastic after The Oaf.

I think Sturgeon would prefer to face Sunak. Truss would be an absolute dream.

I think most SCons want Mordaunt.

squareroot2 · July 2022

Never trust a poll especially one run by the Guardian, the Telegraph or the Daily Mail in fact nearly all polls are worthless. The best one can do in a leadership election is to trust to get instinct... ad do the opposite if what Scott P might venture to suggest.
My gut instinct says vote Mordaunt. She is the best of the females and we need a female PM. We have had enough of the men screwing things up of late.

StuartDickson · July 2022

dixiedean said:
Heat at the Tour de France.

"In certain places, the asphalt is going to start melting, not everywhere of course, but it is going to get much softer. So you can imagine how that might end?

"The solution will be to pour water on it. We will have vehicles with 10,000 litres of water taken along the way, the regional departments are going to help us to cool the roads."

"You have to do it at just the right moment, if you do it too early it just heats up again. If you do it too late the peloton rides onto wet surfaces. It has to be around 15 minutes before they get there."

We might have to move the Tour to September and the Vuelta to October. These mid-summer races might just become infeasible.

Carnyx · July 2022

IanB2 said:

TimS said:
FPT

1976: not only were the Synoptics absolutely unique and not yet repeated, but the UK had the biggest warm anomaly of anywhere on earth that summer, with blues on the anomaly map across much of the rest of the planet. Now we are just one bit of a vast sea of red and orange, despite it being a (relatively cool) La Niña year globally.

If we saw June-July Synoptics in 2022 we would get a repeat of 1976, but with temperatures a degree of two higher.

Indeed this morning’s GFS run showed essentially a 1976-style run of hot days from next weekend, 34-36C day after day. Massive outlier big shows what would happen if we ever repeated the pattern.

June 1976 averaged 17.0C in central England, the same as July 2022 so far, before the heatwave.

1976 is the “we survived the blitz” of modern British climate denial.
But as a child at the time I remember that 1976 went on for ever and ever.

How can a heatwave that starts on Monday and lasts until Tuesday possibly compete?

Although tbf I see the boffins are suggesting we might get a replay the week following.

Mm, I remember too - working in greenhouses and fields for a uni and a forestry company in my gap year in the Scottish lowlands. I cannot remember any rain at all, until going sailing in the Western Isles that summer, but that is undoubtedly an illusion of memory, as I definitely needed my waterproof field gear, and I was astonished how sere and brown the English midlands were when I took a trip down that way in the autumn.

IanB2 · July 2022

Scott_xP said:
This is fabulous. Not only is the Rwanda policy ineffective, and illegal, it is also wildly unpopular with Conservative voters...

This is pretty extraordinary. The Rwanda policy to deport refugees is apparently "toxic" to Tory voters in the party's blue wall heartlands yet not one of the five candidates for the party leadership is prepared to speak out against it. https://twitter.com/Simon_Nixon/status/1548285137858596866/photo/1

It is becoming noticeable that while the local by-elections in Labour v Tory contests are chalking up only small swings against the government, where the LibDems take on the Tories in the south, the swings are mostly large.

squareroot2 · July 2022

Razedabode said:
NEW @JLPartnersPolls for The Sunday @Telegraph

We polled a representative sample of 4,500 people and used MrP to model it onto seats - with awareness of candidates factored in.

In 76% of seats the Conservatives won in 2019, Rishi Sunak has the highest net 'good PM' rating (1/6)

.. I’m probably coming around to Rishi being the most competent

What questions were asked and how were they asked. No point in canvassing all voters ,only Tories party members get to vote.

IanB2 · July 2022

Mexicanpete said:

StuartDickson said:
Mordaunt
Despite what some on here have suggested she was very ordinary in both the ConHome and Ch4 events. Sub-Starmer dreary. Sunak was very polished but he does come with baggage.

Mordaunt shouldn't trouble Starmer or Nippy. However she doesn't scare the Blue wall horses, which might be to her advantage against the LDs.

Yes, but ordinary isn’t necessarily bad. Especially when the alternative is Truss, who comes close to proving Leon’s contention that the aliens are here already.

(except for the logical flaw that if these aliens are sophisticated enough to have got here across gazillions of light-years of deep space, surely they can do better than produce someone like Truss?)

CorrectHorseBattery · July 2022

I am a Labour member and so I will give you my honest opinion.

None of them are Labour destroyers, Penny/Rishi have the best chance of winning a small majority but I think Penny will really struggle to talk her way out of 12 years of failure and policies she supported. Rishi is the best at "hard truths" but he has wedded himself to Boris Johnson.

The "time for a change" angle is going to be massive at the next election, I think Labour has a good chance of at minimum, forming a minority Government.

SeaShantyIrish2 · July 2022

meanwhile, back at the ranch . . .

AP - Abortion issue changes landscape in new Oregon district

Booming population growth made Oregon one of just six states to gain an additional seat in the U.S. House following the 2020 census. The state’s population jumped by more than 10% in the past decade to more than 4.2 million people, giving it a new congressional district for the first time in 40 years.

The newly created 6th District stretches from the affluent suburbs southwest of Portland down to the state capital Salem, and also includes rural areas across a broad swath of the Willamette Valley, one of Oregon’s major agricultural regions.

Democrats hope the new district will add to their advantage in Oregon, where they controlled four of the state’s previous five U.S. House seats. But Republicans also see an opportunity in November, hoping to capitalize on dissatisfaction with the party in power amidst soaring inflation.

But issue of abortion could complicate GOP efforts to win in a district many observers saw tilting toward the Democrats even before the controversial U.S. Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade.

“These are really favorable conditions for Republicans,” said Christopher Stout, associate professor of political science at Oregon State University. “But the last couple weeks have kind of switched that around.” . . .

But while opinion polls show an uptick in the number of people listing abortion as a top issue, economic concerns remain at the forefront of voters’ minds.

The national campaign arms of both parties are watching the race. [Republican Mike] Erickson has been listed as “on the radar” by the National Republican Congressional Committee. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee named [Andrea] Salinas to its “Red to Blue” program, a move not only providing her with organizational and financial support, but also indicating the party’s concerns about how safe the seat may be. . . .

https://apnews.com/article/abortion-2022-midterm-elections-us-supreme-court-salem-congress-2d2073b9bfe4f33c39b28304b9325195

SSI - Had a pony in this horse race . . . until the May primary. Salinas is somewhat to the left, but she's an excellent candidate, running against an anti-abortion zealot in a district that leans Democratic. He's soft-peddling his rhetoric THIS time, but she ain't gonna let him get away with THAT.

My guess is that, despite midterm challenges (!) for the Dems, the repeal of RvW will scupper the GOP in new Oregon 5th district.

No doubt long-term PBers, even if generally supportive of conservative Republicans, will cheer an electoral victory for . . . wait for it . . . Andrea!

kle4 · July 2022

Beibheirli_C said:
None of them. They are all lightweights

These things are relative. At every party leader contest their opponents will say they don't fear any of the contenders, but some are going to be worse than others.

The Tories start with a large majority, a Tory leader who can simply reocver a little could do enough to prevent Labour victory. Which one is the lowest risk of causing more issue, and best chance of holding onto previous gains?

Probably Mordaunt.

Peter_the_Punter · July 2022

IanB2 said:

Mexicanpete said:

StuartDickson said:
Mordaunt
Despite what some on here have suggested she was very ordinary in both the ConHome and Ch4 events. Sub-Starmer dreary. Sunak was very polished but he does come with baggage.

Mordaunt shouldn't trouble Starmer or Nippy. However she doesn't scare the Blue wall horses, which might be to her advantage against the LDs.
Yes, but ordinary isn’t necessarily bad. Especially when the alternative is Truss, who comes close to proving Leon’s contention that the aliens are here already.

(except for the logical flaw that if these aliens are sophisticated enough to have got here across gazillions of light-years of deep space, surely they can do better than produce someone like Truss?)

You may recall from 2001 Space Odyssey that the 'home' prepared for the surviving spaceman was based on their observations of the typical American middle-class home. Everything was therefore bland and banal.

The Aliens have clearly been observing Daily Mail readers and have constructed Truss in their likeness.

kle4 · July 2022

Scott_xP said:
This is fabulous. Not only is the Rwanda policy ineffective, and illegal, it is also wildly unpopular with Conservative voters...

This is pretty extraordinary. The Rwanda policy to deport refugees is apparently "toxic" to Tory voters in the party's blue wall heartlands yet not one of the five candidates for the party leadership is prepared to speak out against it. https://twitter.com/Simon_Nixon/status/1548285137858596866/photo/1

I am very surprised that is the case, if it is true.

Personally even if it is lawful the ineffectiveness and wrongness of it should be enough.

LostPassword · July 2022

I think there's two different questions here. Which candidate would make defeating the Tories most difficult, and which candidate they fear for what they might do and how they might shift the Overton Window.

For the first question it's the candidates that present more of a change from the Johnson government that are a greater threat, because even in a couple of years' time they might still look more like change than a cautious Sir Keir Starmer.

For the second question it now looks clear to me that Truss presents the greatest threat in terms of what she might do in office over two years and how she might damage the political culture.

That leaves Sunak. Over whom there are some doubts with respect to Ukraine specifically, but otherwise he seems like he's the most predictable candidate - we've all known for ages that he plans to cut income tax rates before the next GE - and the easiest for Starmer to defeat.

What Labour want most of all, though, is for Johnson to sulk on the backbenches and plot his political return. Another leadership no confidence vote, or leadership election, before the next GE, would present a level of disunity that would make the Tories a laughing stock.

The greatest threat to the Tories is not necessarily choosing the wrong person to be PM, but in not being able to unite behind that person.

Tres · July 2022

squareroot2 said:
Never trust a poll especially one run by the Guardian, the Telegraph or the Daily Mail in fact nearly all polls are worthless. The best one can do in a leadership election is to trust to get instinct... ad do the opposite if what Scott P might venture to suggest.
My gut instinct says vote Mordaunt. She is the best of the females and we need a female PM. We have had enough of the men screwing things up of late.

Newspapers don't run polls, they commission them from polling companies.

theakes · July 2022

As someone who might vote Labour or Lib Dem to beat the Cons I would say that Tugendhat is the person who would trouble the opposition most, his was a polished performance and he clearly won the average voter. None of the others is a threat.
Let us suppose TT gains from last night and gets into the 40's on Monday, surely KB will lose support and may then just be last, she drops out. TT is still in it. PM again fails to shine in the debates TT does, then the final three could be RS, LT and TT. What could happen then is up for grabs.

MoonRabbit · July 2022

Carnyx said:

MoonRabbit said:
If Truss was any good, she would still have been some threat in this contest even now. But She got herself lost at her own campaign launch, this is magnitude worse than Marcus Brody getting lost in his own museum, Truss got herself lost in effectively just one room, wandering into a dead end, looking left and right and then appearing confused incapable of movement until helped away by a kindly gentleman. Let’s be honest, lost at your own hustings and led away by your staff, you can’t ask to lead a country.

Her continued presence is making it farcical. The 1922 should have a word.
Good grief, you're talking about Ms Truss almost like some on PB talk about Mr Biden.

She was more than halfway there before she realised she didn’t know where she was going.

What makes it funny is not just the confusion Liz is going through, but the concerned looks on the faces of her supporters.

Is this a metaphor?

Yep!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PEyV_BsS3KI

IanB2 · July 2022

Peter_the_Punter said:

IanB2 said:

Mexicanpete said:

StuartDickson said:
Mordaunt
Despite what some on here have suggested she was very ordinary in both the ConHome and Ch4 events. Sub-Starmer dreary. Sunak was very polished but he does come with baggage.

Mordaunt shouldn't trouble Starmer or Nippy. However she doesn't scare the Blue wall horses, which might be to her advantage against the LDs.
Yes, but ordinary isn’t necessarily bad. Especially when the alternative is Truss, who comes close to proving Leon’s contention that the aliens are here already.

(except for the logical flaw that if these aliens are sophisticated enough to have got here across gazillions of light-years of deep space, surely they can do better than produce someone like Truss?)
You may recall from 2001 Space Odyssey that the 'home' prepared for the surviving spaceman was based on their observations of the typical American middle-class home. Everything was therefore bland and banal.

The Aliens have clearly been observing Daily Mail readers and have constructed Truss in their likeness.

Since they mostly visit Wyoming and the Dakotas, it’s a miracle Truss doesn’t have an American accent!

Carnyx · July 2022

IanB2 said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

IanB2 said:

Mexicanpete said:

StuartDickson said:
Mordaunt
Despite what some on here have suggested she was very ordinary in both the ConHome and Ch4 events. Sub-Starmer dreary. Sunak was very polished but he does come with baggage.

Mordaunt shouldn't trouble Starmer or Nippy. However she doesn't scare the Blue wall horses, which might be to her advantage against the LDs.
Yes, but ordinary isn’t necessarily bad. Especially when the alternative is Truss, who comes close to proving Leon’s contention that the aliens are here already.

(except for the logical flaw that if these aliens are sophisticated enough to have got here across gazillions of light-years of deep space, surely they can do better than produce someone like Truss?)
You may recall from 2001 Space Odyssey that the 'home' prepared for the surviving spaceman was based on their observations of the typical American middle-class home. Everything was therefore bland and banal.

The Aliens have clearly been observing Daily Mail readers and have constructed Truss in their likeness.
Since they mostly visit Wyoming and the Dakotas, it’s a miracle Truss doesn’t have an American accent!

They do like Suffolk and Bathgate though for the odd outing. Just imagine a West Lothianer taking over the Tory Party. Would be quite ironic the way they moan about the WL Question (albeit doing sod all about it).

ydoethur · July 2022

It depends on whether they care about the country, or their political prospects.

If the latter, they should be insanely, deliriously, even orgasmically happy about the prospect of Truss as leader.

If the former, the sheer bowel loosening terror at the thought of cheese lady anywhere near power will probably cancel that out.

DavidL · July 2022

Well in Dundee it is now up to 23C but so far no bodies lying in the streets (other than the usual drunks of course).
Is this maybe a little overblown or are we missing the worst of it?

OnboardG1 · July 2022

DavidL said:
Well in Dundee it is now up to 23C but so far no bodies lying in the streets (other than the usual drunks of course).
Is this maybe a little overblown or are we missing the worst of it?

It’s mainly the South and hasn’t started in earnest yet.

IshmaelZ · July 2022

Scott_xP said:
This is fabulous. Not only is the Rwanda policy ineffective, and illegal, it is also wildly unpopular with Conservative voters...

This is pretty extraordinary. The Rwanda policy to deport refugees is apparently "toxic" to Tory voters in the party's blue wall heartlands yet not one of the five candidates for the party leadership is prepared to speak out against it. https://twitter.com/Simon_Nixon/status/1548285137858596866/photo/1

Misrepresentation by him, and, you, in omitting to say that the survey which finds this also finds the policy overwhelmingly popular with red wall Tories

DavidL · July 2022

Scott_xP said:
This is fabulous. Not only is the Rwanda policy ineffective, and illegal, it is also wildly unpopular with Conservative voters...

This is pretty extraordinary. The Rwanda policy to deport refugees is apparently "toxic" to Tory voters in the party's blue wall heartlands yet not one of the five candidates for the party leadership is prepared to speak out against it. https://twitter.com/Simon_Nixon/status/1548285137858596866/photo/1

Who's going to be smart enough to announce they are dumping it at the debates first? I would have thought the TiT because he has much less invested in a government policy that he was not signed up to but it could make a difference for any of the main players except Truss who might lose more support than she gains.

pigeon · July 2022

DavidL said:
Well in Dundee it is now up to 23C but so far no bodies lying in the streets (other than the usual drunks of course).
Is this maybe a little overblown or are we missing the worst of it?

You'll be fine that far North. The amber warning area ends just South of Edinburgh.

HYUFD · July 2022

Truss is probably who Labour and the LDs least fear. However whoever wins has to perform a careful balancing act of holding the Leave backing redwall seats that won Boris his majority without losing Remain seats in the South which stayed Tory in 2019 to keep Corbyn out.

Leadership elections though are not just about picking a candidate your opponents fear but also someone who represents your party's core convictions

StuartDickson · July 2022

IanB2 said:

Scott_xP said:
This is fabulous. Not only is the Rwanda policy ineffective, and illegal, it is also wildly unpopular with Conservative voters...

This is pretty extraordinary. The Rwanda policy to deport refugees is apparently "toxic" to Tory voters in the party's blue wall heartlands yet not one of the five candidates for the party leadership is prepared to speak out against it. https://twitter.com/Simon_Nixon/status/1548285137858596866/photo/1
It is becoming noticeable that while the local by-elections in Labour v Tory contests are chalking up only small swings against the government, where the LibDems take on the Tories in the south, the swings are mostly large.

Could the southern English Lib Dems do what the SNP managed in 2015: smashing a hegemonic party in their very heartlands?

Scott_xP · July 2022

IshmaelZ said:
the policy overwhelmingly popular with red wall Tories

I said Conservatives...

IshmaelZ · July 2022

Scott_xP said:

IshmaelZ said:
the policy overwhelmingly popular with red wall Tories
I said Conservatives...

Yes. Read the actual report.

Stuartinromford · July 2022

IshmaelZ said:

Scott_xP said:
This is fabulous. Not only is the Rwanda policy ineffective, and illegal, it is also wildly unpopular with Conservative voters...

This is pretty extraordinary. The Rwanda policy to deport refugees is apparently "toxic" to Tory voters in the party's blue wall heartlands yet not one of the five candidates for the party leadership is prepared to speak out against it. https://twitter.com/Simon_Nixon/status/1548285137858596866/photo/1
Misrepresentation by him, and, you, in omitting to say that the survey which finds this also finds the policy overwhelmingly popular with red wall Tories

Yes, but the triumph of 2019 was based on gaining the red wall and retaining the blue wall.

Repeating that is always going to be difficult, especially with no Corbyn and no Johnson. But a policy like this that repels the larger part of the Conservative coalition, isn't going to help.

For all some Conservatives wish they could be US Republicans or Aussie Liberals, that's not likely to work in the UK.

ohnotnow · July 2022

IanB2 said:

TimS said:
FPT

1976: not only were the Synoptics absolutely unique and not yet repeated, but the UK had the biggest warm anomaly of anywhere on earth that summer, with blues on the anomaly map across much of the rest of the planet. Now we are just one bit of a vast sea of red and orange, despite it being a (relatively cool) La Niña year globally.

If we saw June-July Synoptics in 2022 we would get a repeat of 1976, but with temperatures a degree of two higher.

Indeed this morning’s GFS run showed essentially a 1976-style run of hot days from next weekend, 34-36C day after day. Massive outlier big shows what would happen if we ever repeated the pattern.

June 1976 averaged 17.0C in central England, the same as July 2022 so far, before the heatwave.

1976 is the “we survived the blitz” of modern British climate denial.
But as a child at the time I remember that 1976 went on for ever and ever.

How can a heatwave that starts on Monday and lasts until Tuesday possibly compete?

Although tbf I see the boffins are suggesting we might get a replay the week following.

I remember that summer as a child too. Partly the endlessness of it, partly seeing the weathermen singing 'The Sun Has Got His Hat On'** and partly being continually clarted in probably the 1970s finest toxic sun-cream by my mother.

** Which I can't find a youtube video of now. Which is making me wonder if I made it up. But I'm sure I remember three forecasters in front of the weather map with Edwardian boaters singing it.

MattW · July 2022

TimS said:
FPT

1976: not only were the Synoptics absolutely unique and not yet repeated, but the UK had the biggest warm anomaly of anywhere on earth that summer, with blues on the anomaly map across much of the rest of the planet. Now we are just one bit of a vast sea of red and orange, despite it being a (relatively cool) La Niña year globally.

If we saw June-July Synoptics in 2022 we would get a repeat of 1976, but with temperatures a degree of two higher.

Indeed this morning’s GFS run showed essentially a 1976-style run of hot days from next weekend, 34-36C day after day. Massive outlier big shows what would happen if we ever repeated the pattern.

June 1976 averaged 17.0C in central England, the same as July 2022 so far, before the heatwave.

1976 is the “we survived the blitz” of modern British climate denial.

1976 was more that that.

It was for three months and nearly 18C average:

In the Central England Temperature series, 1976 is the hottest summer for more than 350 years. The average temperature over the whole summer (June, July, August) was 17.77 °C (63.99 °F), compared to the average for the unusually warm years between 2001–2008 of 16.30 °C (61.34 °F).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_British_Isles_heat_wave

The noticeable thing for me this year - Midlands - so far is the changeability of it. We have had a heat wave in spring, plus a cold period. Followed by May/June/July where we have continued to receive periodic rain - my garden water butts keep getting refilled by showers and overnight rain before they run completely dry.

Also the water problems in 1976 were also due to an extended serious shortage of rain from Summer 75 / Autumn 75 / Winter 75 / Spring 76.

Even in 2018 hosepipe bans started at the end of June. To date this year none are in place.

TimT · July 2022

IanB2 said:

TimS said:
FPT

1976: not only were the Synoptics absolutely unique and not yet repeated, but the UK had the biggest warm anomaly of anywhere on earth that summer, with blues on the anomaly map across much of the rest of the planet. Now we are just one bit of a vast sea of red and orange, despite it being a (relatively cool) La Niña year globally.

If we saw June-July Synoptics in 2022 we would get a repeat of 1976, but with temperatures a degree of two higher.

Indeed this morning’s GFS run showed essentially a 1976-style run of hot days from next weekend, 34-36C day after day. Massive outlier big shows what would happen if we ever repeated the pattern.

June 1976 averaged 17.0C in central England, the same as July 2022 so far, before the heatwave.

1976 is the “we survived the blitz” of modern British climate denial.
But as a child at the time I remember that 1976 went on for ever and ever.

How can a heatwave that starts on Monday and lasts until Tuesday possibly compete?

Although tbf I see the boffins are suggesting we might get a replay the week following.

My recollection was that it was 5 or 7 weeks. I remember having to get water from the standpipes to flush the loo.

StuartDickson · July 2022

Truss now 6/1 next Con leader. Looks like she’s blown it.

ohnotnow · July 2022

CorrectHorseBattery said:
I am a Labour member and so I will give you my honest opinion.

None of them are Labour destroyers, Penny/Rishi have the best chance of winning a small majority but I think Penny will really struggle to talk her way out of 12 years of failure and policies she supported. Rishi is the best at "hard truths" but he has wedded himself to Boris Johnson.

The "time for a change" angle is going to be massive at the next election, I think Labour has a good chance of at minimum, forming a minority Government.

I guess it might also be 'which one is enough of a change for the LD's to consider propping them up'. Seems off the cards at the moment - but after two years of a liberal/moderate-sounding Maurdant or Tugendhat?

HYUFD · July 2022

Stuartinromford said:

IshmaelZ said:

Scott_xP said:
This is fabulous. Not only is the Rwanda policy ineffective, and illegal, it is also wildly unpopular with Conservative voters...

This is pretty extraordinary. The Rwanda policy to deport refugees is apparently "toxic" to Tory voters in the party's blue wall heartlands yet not one of the five candidates for the party leadership is prepared to speak out against it. https://twitter.com/Simon_Nixon/status/1548285137858596866/photo/1
Misrepresentation by him, and, you, in omitting to say that the survey which finds this also finds the policy overwhelmingly popular with red wall Tories
Yes, but the triumph of 2019 was based on gaining the red wall and retaining the blue wall.

Repeating that is always going to be difficult, especially with no Corbyn and no Johnson. But a policy like this that repels the larger part of the Conservative coalition, isn't going to help.

For all some Conservatives wish they could be US Republicans or Aussie Liberals, that's not likely to work in the UK.

And hasn't even worked in the US for the Republicans or Australia for the Liberals given their last national election results

Peter_the_Punter · July 2022

TimT said:

IanB2 said:

TimS said:
FPT

1976: not only were the Synoptics absolutely unique and not yet repeated, but the UK had the biggest warm anomaly of anywhere on earth that summer, with blues on the anomaly map across much of the rest of the planet. Now we are just one bit of a vast sea of red and orange, despite it being a (relatively cool) La Niña year globally.

If we saw June-July Synoptics in 2022 we would get a repeat of 1976, but with temperatures a degree of two higher.

Indeed this morning’s GFS run showed essentially a 1976-style run of hot days from next weekend, 34-36C day after day. Massive outlier big shows what would happen if we ever repeated the pattern.

June 1976 averaged 17.0C in central England, the same as July 2022 so far, before the heatwave.

1976 is the “we survived the blitz” of modern British climate denial.
But as a child at the time I remember that 1976 went on for ever and ever.

How can a heatwave that starts on Monday and lasts until Tuesday possibly compete?

Although tbf I see the boffins are suggesting we might get a replay the week following.
My recollection was that it was 5 or 7 weeks. I remember having to get water from the standpipes to flush the loo.

The earth on Wanstead Flats was smouldering for weeks.

numbertwelve · July 2022

I don’t think on the debate performances last night they have much to fear from any of them to be honest. Badenoch is the one that would cause them the biggest headache likely from an initial strategic perspective given she is more of an unknown quantity and has a rather refreshing and novel communication style.

I would caution about putting too much stock in one or two debate performances though: for instance, people have found Penny likeable, personable and an effective communicator for a long time. She has often been touted on here and elsewhere as a possible leader. One slightly squiffy performance at a debate does not a general election loser make - though it can highlight weaknesses.

As a hunch I would say Penny and Kemi are both gambles that stand the greatest chance of delivering a majority at the next GE, but could also crash and burn miserably. Truss will just crash and burn. Labour have their attack lines ready for Rishi and I think the Tories will struggle under him, though he is probably the best presentationally. TT is an also ran.

HYUFD · July 2022

ohnotnow said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:
I am a Labour member and so I will give you my honest opinion.

None of them are Labour destroyers, Penny/Rishi have the best chance of winning a small majority but I think Penny will really struggle to talk her way out of 12 years of failure and policies she supported. Rishi is the best at "hard truths" but he has wedded himself to Boris Johnson.

The "time for a change" angle is going to be massive at the next election, I think Labour has a good chance of at minimum, forming a minority Government.
I guess it might also be 'which one is enough of a change for the LD's to consider propping them up'. Seems off the cards at the moment - but after two years of a liberal/moderate-sounding Maurdant or Tugendhat?

Even the latter 2 would not be propped up by the LDs without going back into the EEA or moving much closer aligned to the EU again which would split the party

CorrectHorseBattery · July 2022

ohnotnow said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:
I am a Labour member and so I will give you my honest opinion.

None of them are Labour destroyers, Penny/Rishi have the best chance of winning a small majority but I think Penny will really struggle to talk her way out of 12 years of failure and policies she supported. Rishi is the best at "hard truths" but he has wedded himself to Boris Johnson.

The "time for a change" angle is going to be massive at the next election, I think Labour has a good chance of at minimum, forming a minority Government.
I guess it might also be 'which one is enough of a change for the LD's to consider propping them up'. Seems off the cards at the moment - but after two years of a liberal/moderate-sounding Maurdant or Tugendhat?

It's the one most likely to give them voting reform.

Labour will clearly hand it over as a condition for support.

MrEd · July 2022

HYUFD said:
Truss is probably who Labour and the LDs least fear. However whoever wins has to perform a careful balancing act of holding the Leave backing redwall seats that won Boris his majority without losing Remain seats in the South which stayed Tory in 2019 to keep Corbyn out.

Leadership elections though are not just about picking a candidate your opponents fear but also someone who represents your party's core convictions

Sunak would probably do well in Blue Wall seats - would be seen as pragmatic and (reasonably) socially liberal but committed to 'sound' fiscal policy. However, it would be a complete turkey shoot in RW / poorer areas. He would be so spectacularly out of kilter with (at least) anyone lower middle class and below.

Truss, agreed - wouldn't be feared at all.

Mordaunt probably could appeal across both sides (socially liberal but military background may appeal to RW voters) but I think from now on she would be handicapped given what has been raised in the contest. She might be seen as too woke on certain issues.

Badenoch - agree with Mike, more appeal in the RW. Blue Wall might be interesting - ideologically, she would be at risk of putting off voters but there might be a reticence amongst certain types to vote against a black female PM. The latter is only a gut feel.

Tuggy - agree with Mike.

Andy_JS · July 2022

I think Kemi Badenoch would be the most difficult for the opposition parties to face and the best choice for the Conservatives.

Daveyboy1961 · July 2022

MoonRabbit said:

Carnyx said:

MoonRabbit said:
If Truss was any good, she would still have been some threat in this contest even now. But She got herself lost at her own campaign launch, this is magnitude worse than Marcus Brody getting lost in his own museum, Truss got herself lost in effectively just one room, wandering into a dead end, looking left and right and then appearing confused incapable of movement until helped away by a kindly gentleman. Let’s be honest, lost at your own hustings and led away by your staff, you can’t ask to lead a country.

Her continued presence is making it farcical. The 1922 should have a word.
Good grief, you're talking about Ms Truss almost like some on PB talk about Mr Biden.
She was more than halfway there before she realised she didn’t know where she was going.

What makes it funny is not just the confusion Liz is going through, but the concerned looks on the faces of her supporters.

Is this a metaphor?

Yep!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PEyV_BsS3KI

Funnily enough I didn't think it was that much of a gaff. Perhaps there was another door at the back of the room, and she wanted to walk past the cameras and reporters?

No_Offence_Alan · July 2022

ohnotnow said:

IanB2 said:

TimS said:
FPT

1976: not only were the Synoptics absolutely unique and not yet repeated, but the UK had the biggest warm anomaly of anywhere on earth that summer, with blues on the anomaly map across much of the rest of the planet. Now we are just one bit of a vast sea of red and orange, despite it being a (relatively cool) La Niña year globally.

If we saw June-July Synoptics in 2022 we would get a repeat of 1976, but with temperatures a degree of two higher.

Indeed this morning’s GFS run showed essentially a 1976-style run of hot days from next weekend, 34-36C day after day. Massive outlier big shows what would happen if we ever repeated the pattern.

June 1976 averaged 17.0C in central England, the same as July 2022 so far, before the heatwave.

1976 is the “we survived the blitz” of modern British climate denial.
But as a child at the time I remember that 1976 went on for ever and ever.

How can a heatwave that starts on Monday and lasts until Tuesday possibly compete?

Although tbf I see the boffins are suggesting we might get a replay the week following.
I remember that summer as a child too. Partly the endlessness of it, partly seeing the weathermen singing 'The Sun Has Got His Hat On'** and partly being continually clarted in probably the 1970s finest toxic sun-cream by my mother.

** Which I can't find a youtube video of now. Which is making me wonder if I made it up. But I'm sure I remember three forecasters in front of the weather map with Edwardian boaters singing it.

And I also remember the swarms of ladybirds of biblical proportions.

Eabhal · July 2022

Comment on reddit: Get ready for every brain-dead boomer to start making completely irrelevant comparisons to 1976

.....

MattW · July 2022

TimS said:
FPT

1976: not only were the Synoptics absolutely unique and not yet repeated, but the UK had the biggest warm anomaly of anywhere on earth that summer, with blues on the anomaly map across much of the rest of the planet. Now we are just one bit of a vast sea of red and orange, despite it being a (relatively cool) La Niña year globally.

If we saw June-July Synoptics in 2022 we would get a repeat of 1976, but with temperatures a degree of two higher.

Indeed this morning’s GFS run showed essentially a 1976-style run of hot days from next weekend, 34-36C day after day. Massive outlier big shows what would happen if we ever repeated the pattern.

June 1976 averaged 17.0C in central England, the same as July 2022 so far, before the heatwave.

1976 is the “we survived the blitz” of modern British climate denial.

1976 was more that that, and generally I don't think we are anywhere near that yet.

It was for three months and nearly 18C average:

In the Central England Temperature series, 1976 is the hottest summer for more than 350 years. The average temperature over the whole summer (June, July, August) was 17.77 °C (63.99 °F), compared to the average for the unusually warm years between 2001–2008 of 16.30 °C (61.34 °F).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_British_Isles_heat_wave

The noticeable thing for me this year - Midlands - so far is the changeability of it. We have had a heat wave in spring, plus a cold period. Followed by May/June/July where we have continued to receive periodic rain - my garden water butts keep getting refilled by showers and overnight rain before they run completely dry.

Also the water problems in 1976 were also due to an extended serious shortage of rain from Summer 75 / Autumn 75 / Winter 75 / Spring 76.

Even in 2018 hosepipe bans started at the end of June. To date this year none are in place.

There are also background factors, such as reduced water reduced leakage in the supply.

I was going to add in reduced leakage, but when I can find immediate estimates that domestic is either 5% or 50% of total usage, I don't think that reliable figures exist.

MoonRabbit · July 2022

Daveyboy1961 said:

MoonRabbit said:

Carnyx said:

MoonRabbit said:
If Truss was any good, she would still have been some threat in this contest even now. But She got herself lost at her own campaign launch, this is magnitude worse than Marcus Brody getting lost in his own museum, Truss got herself lost in effectively just one room, wandering into a dead end, looking left and right and then appearing confused incapable of movement until helped away by a kindly gentleman. Let’s be honest, lost at your own hustings and led away by your staff, you can’t ask to lead a country.

Her continued presence is making it farcical. The 1922 should have a word.
Good grief, you're talking about Ms Truss almost like some on PB talk about Mr Biden.
She was more than halfway there before she realised she didn’t know where she was going.

What makes it funny is not just the confusion Liz is going through, but the concerned looks on the faces of her supporters.

Is this a metaphor?

Yep!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PEyV_BsS3KI
Funnily enough I didn't think it was that much of a gaff. Perhaps there was another door at the back of the room, and she wanted to walk past the cameras and reporters?

OMG! Have we actually found a spinner for Truss on this site? 🤣

Cyclefree · July 2022

An exceedingly pleasant 20 degrees here. My banana and citrus plants are doing very well indeed.

Husband has been invited to sign up for hustings. The nearest in person ones will be in Newcastle. None in this part of the NorthWest. He is not impressed by that. So it will be online

MattW · July 2022

Eabhal said:
Comment on reddit: Get ready for every brain-dead boomer to start making completely irrelevant comparisons to 1976

.....

Comment from a brain-dead person on Reddit.

Boomers have the advantage of having been there.

IshmaelZ · July 2022

Here's what Penny Mordaunt claimed about the NHS during the Channel Four debate last night. Since then the tweets she posted making the same claim have been deleted from her account and her team have not responded to requests to explain what her claim was based on.

https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1548290880196333568

https://mobile.twitter.com/TheLondonLawye1/status/1548292444789256192

Replying to

@AdamBienkov

It’s probably this - 180 companies have had NHS funding for innovations - horribly misconstrued: https://england.nhs.uk/aac/what-we-do/how-can-the-aac-help-me/sbri-healthcare/

---

She is looking very accident prone

MoonRabbit · July 2022

DavidL said:

Scott_xP said:
This is fabulous. Not only is the Rwanda policy ineffective, and illegal, it is also wildly unpopular with Conservative voters...

This is pretty extraordinary. The Rwanda policy to deport refugees is apparently "toxic" to Tory voters in the party's blue wall heartlands yet not one of the five candidates for the party leadership is prepared to speak out against it. https://twitter.com/Simon_Nixon/status/1548285137858596866/photo/1
Who's going to be smart enough to announce they are dumping it at the debates first? I would have thought the TiT because he has much less invested in a government policy that he was not signed up to but it could make a difference for any of the main players except Truss who might lose more support than she gains.

No. The difficulty is obvious, the whole Rwanda facade was created because the Boris government didn’t have a working policy to stop the boats coming - so as soon as you, be you opposition party or internal of the party, speak out against it, organise against it, they are immediately at your throat with “okay then, what’s your better idea.”

Farooq · July 2022

Cyclefree said:
An exceedingly pleasant 20 degrees here. My banana and citrus plants are doing very well indeed.

Husband has been invited to sign up for hustings. The nearest in person ones will be in Newcastle. None in this part of the NorthWest. He is not impressed by that. So it will be online

They can't go everywhere. I'd be surprised if Carlisle is in the top 100 towns in terms of population, so what does he expect?

MattW · July 2022

TimT said:

IanB2 said:

TimS said:
FPT

1976: not only were the Synoptics absolutely unique and not yet repeated, but the UK had the biggest warm anomaly of anywhere on earth that summer, with blues on the anomaly map across much of the rest of the planet. Now we are just one bit of a vast sea of red and orange, despite it being a (relatively cool) La Niña year globally.

If we saw June-July Synoptics in 2022 we would get a repeat of 1976, but with temperatures a degree of two higher.

Indeed this morning’s GFS run showed essentially a 1976-style run of hot days from next weekend, 34-36C day after day. Massive outlier big shows what would happen if we ever repeated the pattern.

June 1976 averaged 17.0C in central England, the same as July 2022 so far, before the heatwave.

1976 is the “we survived the blitz” of modern British climate denial.
But as a child at the time I remember that 1976 went on for ever and ever.

How can a heatwave that starts on Monday and lasts until Tuesday possibly compete?

Although tbf I see the boffins are suggesting we might get a replay the week following.
My recollection was that it was 5 or 7 weeks. I remember having to get water from the standpipes to flush the loo.

As per my other comment - the water supplies being so low in 1976 was due to a very dry previous 9 months.

Leon · July 2022

Cyclefree said:
An exceedingly pleasant 20 degrees here. My banana and citrus plants are doing very well indeed.

Husband has been invited to sign up for hustings. The nearest in person ones will be in Newcastle. None in this part of the NorthWest. He is not impressed by that. So it will be online

Went to get a Moldovan carwash in West Kentish Town. For the first time ever the entire concourse was deserted of workers: they were all huddling in the only shade available

Chatted with one of the guys and he said they weren't working at all Monday and Tuesday, so people really are paying attention. And as we talked you could feel the heat surging, subtly. It is in the post. It is on the way

On the other hand North London is en fete. An absolute party atmosphere prevails in Camden Market, which is as busy as I've seen it in years. Thronging and happy

Foxy · July 2022

Stuartinromford said:

IshmaelZ said:

Scott_xP said:
This is fabulous. Not only is the Rwanda policy ineffective, and illegal, it is also wildly unpopular with Conservative voters...

This is pretty extraordinary. The Rwanda policy to deport refugees is apparently "toxic" to Tory voters in the party's blue wall heartlands yet not one of the five candidates for the party leadership is prepared to speak out against it. https://twitter.com/Simon_Nixon/status/1548285137858596866/photo/1
Misrepresentation by him, and, you, in omitting to say that the survey which finds this also finds the policy overwhelmingly popular with red wall Tories
Yes, but the triumph of 2019 was based on gaining the red wall and retaining the blue wall.

Repeating that is always going to be difficult, especially with no Corbyn and no Johnson. But a policy like this that repels the larger part of the Conservative coalition, isn't going to help.

For all some Conservatives wish they could be US Republicans or Aussie Liberals, that's not likely to work in the UK.

Always a tricky horse to ride.

"Leveling Up" is also proving toxic. The Red Wall doesn't believe it is happening and the Blue Wall believes it means levelling down for themselves.

As a current Lib Dem member, who voted Conservative in 2010 and was within the last 2 decades a member of the Labour Party my politics is pretty centre-swing voter territory.

I won't be voting Conservative because of Brexit, but of these five it is only Mordaunt or Sunak that I could be even slightly tempted to vote for.

IshmaelZ · July 2022

Eabhal said:
Comment on reddit: Get ready for every brain-dead boomer to start making completely irrelevant comparisons to 1976

.....

Because summer 1976 was a summer whereas summer 2022 is a summer

And then it was hot, but now it is hot

Or what?

CorrectHorseBattery · July 2022

IshmaelZ said:
Here's what Penny Mordaunt claimed about the NHS during the Channel Four debate last night. Since then the tweets she posted making the same claim have been deleted from her account and her team have not responded to requests to explain what her claim was based on.

https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1548290880196333568

https://mobile.twitter.com/TheLondonLawye1/status/1548292444789256192

Replying to

@AdamBienkov

It’s probably this - 180 companies have had NHS funding for innovations - horribly misconstrued: https://england.nhs.uk/aac/what-we-do/how-can-the-aac-help-me/sbri-healthcare/

---

She is looking very accident prone

She will get taken apart by Starmer, who sticks religiously on message.

She clearly thought it was a applause moment with the crowd going wild, not clear if she thought of it off the cuff or not but she's proving to be a total lightweight.

Farooq · July 2022

HYUFD said:
Truss is probably who Labour and the LDs least fear. However whoever wins has to perform a careful balancing act of holding the Leave backing redwall seats that won Boris his majority without losing Remain seats in the South which stayed Tory in 2019 to keep Corbyn out.

Leadership elections though are not just about picking a candidate your opponents fear but also someone who represents your party's core convictions

Your party's convictions come in the form of FPNs, driving bans, and the occasional jail term.

CorrectHorseBattery · July 2022

What united the Blue Wall and the Red Wall in 2019 was Jeremy Corbyn. It is no surprise that since he left, both sides of the coalition have split and the Tories cannot keep them both, since they have differing interests.

The Tories have tried to find an issue that unites them but they will need to hope Starmer gets run over by a bus.

Carnyx · July 2022

IshmaelZ said:
Here's what Penny Mordaunt claimed about the NHS during the Channel Four debate last night. Since then the tweets she posted making the same claim have been deleted from her account and her team have not responded to requests to explain what her claim was based on.

https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1548290880196333568

https://mobile.twitter.com/TheLondonLawye1/status/1548292444789256192

Replying to

@AdamBienkov

It’s probably this - 180 companies have had NHS funding for innovations - horribly misconstrued: https://england.nhs.uk/aac/what-we-do/how-can-the-aac-help-me/sbri-healthcare/

---

She is looking very accident prone

Or possibly she misheard someone saying that 180innovations plc isn't being used by the NHS? And mangled it. As suggested bu this chap.

https://mobile.twitter.com/binaryape/status/1548040814437093387

This coming out with any old guff on the spur of the moment is horribly familiar. 40 new hospitals and all that, remember?

MoonRabbit · July 2022

CorrectHorseBattery said:

IshmaelZ said:
Here's what Penny Mordaunt claimed about the NHS during the Channel Four debate last night. Since then the tweets she posted making the same claim have been deleted from her account and her team have not responded to requests to explain what her claim was based on.

https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1548290880196333568

https://mobile.twitter.com/TheLondonLawye1/status/1548292444789256192

Replying to

@AdamBienkov

It’s probably this - 180 companies have had NHS funding for innovations - horribly misconstrued: https://england.nhs.uk/aac/what-we-do/how-can-the-aac-help-me/sbri-healthcare/

---

She is looking very accident prone
She will get taken apart by Starmer, who sticks religiously on message.

She clearly thought it was a applause moment with the crowd going wild, not clear if she thought of it off the cuff or not but she's proving to be a total lightweight.

“her team have not responded to requests to explain what her claim was based on.”

That’s because, like everyone else, they don’t have a clue what she was on about.”

Andy_JS · July 2022

I don't understand why HYUFD isn't considering supporting Kemi Badenoch.

Carnyx · July 2022

Andy_JS said:
I don't understand why HYUFD isn't considering supporting Kemi Badenoch.

He'd have to admit he was wrong in supporting Mr Johnson. Who, as I recall him saying, was deposed by a gang of traitors stabbing him in the back, or words to that effect.

Carnyx · July 2022

MoonRabbit said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

IshmaelZ said:
Here's what Penny Mordaunt claimed about the NHS during the Channel Four debate last night. Since then the tweets she posted making the same claim have been deleted from her account and her team have not responded to requests to explain what her claim was based on.

https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1548290880196333568

https://mobile.twitter.com/TheLondonLawye1/status/1548292444789256192

Replying to

@AdamBienkov

It’s probably this - 180 companies have had NHS funding for innovations - horribly misconstrued: https://england.nhs.uk/aac/what-we-do/how-can-the-aac-help-me/sbri-healthcare/

---

She is looking very accident prone
She will get taken apart by Starmer, who sticks religiously on message.

She clearly thought it was a applause moment with the crowd going wild, not clear if she thought of it off the cuff or not but she's proving to be a total lightweight.
“her team have not responded to requests to explain what her claim was based on.”

That’s because, like everyone else, they don’t have a clue what she was on about.”

And, presumably, it's no good asking her because she doesn't know?

CorrectHorseBattery · July 2022

MoonRabbit said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

IshmaelZ said:
Here's what Penny Mordaunt claimed about the NHS during the Channel Four debate last night. Since then the tweets she posted making the same claim have been deleted from her account and her team have not responded to requests to explain what her claim was based on.

https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1548290880196333568

https://mobile.twitter.com/TheLondonLawye1/status/1548292444789256192

Replying to

@AdamBienkov

It’s probably this - 180 companies have had NHS funding for innovations - horribly misconstrued: https://england.nhs.uk/aac/what-we-do/how-can-the-aac-help-me/sbri-healthcare/

---

She is looking very accident prone
She will get taken apart by Starmer, who sticks religiously on message.

She clearly thought it was a applause moment with the crowd going wild, not clear if she thought of it off the cuff or not but she's proving to be a total lightweight.
“her team have not responded to requests to explain what her claim was based on.”

That’s because, like everyone else, they don’t have a clue what she was on about.”

I.e. she made it up on the spot.

ohnotnow · July 2022

No_Offence_Alan said:

ohnotnow said:

IanB2 said:

TimS said:
FPT

1976: not only were the Synoptics absolutely unique and not yet repeated, but the UK had the biggest warm anomaly of anywhere on earth that summer, with blues on the anomaly map across much of the rest of the planet. Now we are just one bit of a vast sea of red and orange, despite it being a (relatively cool) La Niña year globally.

If we saw June-July Synoptics in 2022 we would get a repeat of 1976, but with temperatures a degree of two higher.

Indeed this morning’s GFS run showed essentially a 1976-style run of hot days from next weekend, 34-36C day after day. Massive outlier big shows what would happen if we ever repeated the pattern.

June 1976 averaged 17.0C in central England, the same as July 2022 so far, before the heatwave.

1976 is the “we survived the blitz” of modern British climate denial.
But as a child at the time I remember that 1976 went on for ever and ever.

How can a heatwave that starts on Monday and lasts until Tuesday possibly compete?

Although tbf I see the boffins are suggesting we might get a replay the week following.
I remember that summer as a child too. Partly the endlessness of it, partly seeing the weathermen singing 'The Sun Has Got His Hat On'** and partly being continually clarted in probably the 1970s finest toxic sun-cream by my mother.

** Which I can't find a youtube video of now. Which is making me wonder if I made it up. But I'm sure I remember three forecasters in front of the weather map with Edwardian boaters singing it.
And I also remember the swarms of ladybirds of biblical proportions.

Oh! Yes! Now I remember being fascinated by them being everywhere in the garden! I think it's probably greatly coloured my vague 'well, you don't see many ladybirds any more... damn this climate change/pesticide/habitat-loss' thoughts down the years.

Leon · July 2022

BBC Weather is now predicting 42C in some places on Tuesday. eg Wittering Peterborough

Let that sink in. 42C in little old Wittering

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2633727

Carnyx · July 2022

MattW said:

TimS said:
FPT

1976: not only were the Synoptics absolutely unique and not yet repeated, but the UK had the biggest warm anomaly of anywhere on earth that summer, with blues on the anomaly map across much of the rest of the planet. Now we are just one bit of a vast sea of red and orange, despite it being a (relatively cool) La Niña year globally.

If we saw June-July Synoptics in 2022 we would get a repeat of 1976, but with temperatures a degree of two higher.

Indeed this morning’s GFS run showed essentially a 1976-style run of hot days from next weekend, 34-36C day after day. Massive outlier big shows what would happen if we ever repeated the pattern.

June 1976 averaged 17.0C in central England, the same as July 2022 so far, before the heatwave.

1976 is the “we survived the blitz” of modern British climate denial.
1976 was more that that, and generally I don't think we are anywhere near that yet.

It was for three months and nearly 18C average:

In the Central England Temperature series, 1976 is the hottest summer for more than 350 years. The average temperature over the whole summer (June, July, August) was 17.77 °C (63.99 °F), compared to the average for the unusually warm years between 2001–2008 of 16.30 °C (61.34 °F).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_British_Isles_heat_wave

The noticeable thing for me this year - Midlands - so far is the changeability of it. We have had a heat wave in spring, plus a cold period. Followed by May/June/July where we have continued to receive periodic rain - my garden water butts keep getting refilled by showers and overnight rain before they run completely dry.

Also the water problems in 1976 were also due to an extended serious shortage of rain from Summer 75 / Autumn 75 / Winter 75 / Spring 76.

Even in 2018 hosepipe bans started at the end of June. To date this year none are in place.

There are also background factors, such as reduced water reduced leakage in the supply.

I was going to add in reduced leakage, but when I can find immediate estimates that domestic is either 5% or 50% of total usage, I don't think that reliable figures exist.

Even so, the denial is a bit like saying house fires dont' exist because the average temperature of a burnt down house is about 25 degC averaged out for a year.

TOPPING · July 2022

Leon said:

Cyclefree said:
An exceedingly pleasant 20 degrees here. My banana and citrus plants are doing very well indeed.

Husband has been invited to sign up for hustings. The nearest in person ones will be in Newcastle. None in this part of the NorthWest. He is not impressed by that. So it will be online
Camden Market, which is as busy as I've seen it in years.

Thus speaks an incomer. What a meaningless statement to make about "Camden Market" at the weekend in summer.

Daveyboy1961 · July 2022

MoonRabbit said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

MoonRabbit said:

Carnyx said:

MoonRabbit said:
If Truss was any good, she would still have been some threat in this contest even now. But She got herself lost at her own campaign launch, this is magnitude worse than Marcus Brody getting lost in his own museum, Truss got herself lost in effectively just one room, wandering into a dead end, looking left and right and then appearing confused incapable of movement until helped away by a kindly gentleman. Let’s be honest, lost at your own hustings and led away by your staff, you can’t ask to lead a country.

Her continued presence is making it farcical. The 1922 should have a word.
Good grief, you're talking about Ms Truss almost like some on PB talk about Mr Biden.
She was more than halfway there before she realised she didn’t know where she was going.

What makes it funny is not just the confusion Liz is going through, but the concerned looks on the faces of her supporters.

Is this a metaphor?

Yep!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PEyV_BsS3KI
Funnily enough I didn't think it was that much of a gaff. Perhaps there was another door at the back of the room, and she wanted to walk past the cameras and reporters?
OMG! Have we actually found a spinner for Truss on this site? 🤣

omg no, I just thought it was not as bad as people think. I obviously can't stand the woman, making fake trade deals on the back of ex-EU deals with slight tinkering to make it worse for us. To cap it all, Barty like her for god sake.

Carnyx · July 2022

ohnotnow said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

ohnotnow said:

IanB2 said:

TimS said:
FPT

1976: not only were the Synoptics absolutely unique and not yet repeated, but the UK had the biggest warm anomaly of anywhere on earth that summer, with blues on the anomaly map across much of the rest of the planet. Now we are just one bit of a vast sea of red and orange, despite it being a (relatively cool) La Niña year globally.

If we saw June-July Synoptics in 2022 we would get a repeat of 1976, but with temperatures a degree of two higher.

Indeed this morning’s GFS run showed essentially a 1976-style run of hot days from next weekend, 34-36C day after day. Massive outlier big shows what would happen if we ever repeated the pattern.

June 1976 averaged 17.0C in central England, the same as July 2022 so far, before the heatwave.

1976 is the “we survived the blitz” of modern British climate denial.
But as a child at the time I remember that 1976 went on for ever and ever.

How can a heatwave that starts on Monday and lasts until Tuesday possibly compete?

Although tbf I see the boffins are suggesting we might get a replay the week following.
I remember that summer as a child too. Partly the endlessness of it, partly seeing the weathermen singing 'The Sun Has Got His Hat On'** and partly being continually clarted in probably the 1970s finest toxic sun-cream by my mother.

** Which I can't find a youtube video of now. Which is making me wonder if I made it up. But I'm sure I remember three forecasters in front of the weather map with Edwardian boaters singing it.
And I also remember the swarms of ladybirds of biblical proportions.
Oh! Yes! Now I remember being fascinated by them being everywhere in the garden! I think it's probably greatly coloured my vague 'well, you don't see many ladybirds any more... damn this climate change/pesticide/habitat-loss' thoughts down the years.

Now that does remind me - out in the fields on my gap jobs, that summer, there were trillions of aphids. Which ties in well, because lots of aphids = lots of food for ladybird larvae and adults.

Leon · July 2022

If that forecast verifies - 42C in eastern England - then that means the record isn't just broken, it is smashed

The present record is a mere 38.7C, set in nearby Cambridge in 2019

I'm starting to think Climate Change might actually be a *thing*

Farooq · July 2022

Andy_JS said:
I don't understand why HYUFD isn't considering supporting Kemi Badenoch.

I don't understand why you are.
I mean, I've seen you supporting her for days but I haven't once seen you give a reason.

HYUFD · July 2022

Andy_JS said:
I don't understand why HYUFD isn't considering supporting Kemi Badenoch.

She is not experienced enough compared to Sunak, Truss or Mordaunt and not as electable as Tugendhat

IshmaelZ · July 2022

Carnyx said:

IshmaelZ said:
Here's what Penny Mordaunt claimed about the NHS during the Channel Four debate last night. Since then the tweets she posted making the same claim have been deleted from her account and her team have not responded to requests to explain what her claim was based on.

https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1548290880196333568

https://mobile.twitter.com/TheLondonLawye1/status/1548292444789256192

Replying to

@AdamBienkov

It’s probably this - 180 companies have had NHS funding for innovations - horribly misconstrued: https://england.nhs.uk/aac/what-we-do/how-can-the-aac-help-me/sbri-healthcare/

---

She is looking very accident prone
Or possibly she misheard someone saying that 180innovations plc isn't being used by the NHS? And mangled it. As suggested bu this chap.

https://mobile.twitter.com/binaryape/status/1548040814437093387

This coming out with any old guff on the spur of the moment is horribly familiar. 40 new hospitals and all that, remember?

But they seem to be a retail, Boots the chemist sort of thing

Leon · July 2022

TOPPING said:

Leon said:

Cyclefree said:
An exceedingly pleasant 20 degrees here. My banana and citrus plants are doing very well indeed.

Husband has been invited to sign up for hustings. The nearest in person ones will be in Newcastle. None in this part of the NorthWest. He is not impressed by that. So it will be online
Camden Market, which is as busy as I've seen it in years.
Thus speaks an incomer. What a meaningless statement to make about "Camden Market" at the weekend in summer.

WTF are you on about, you big rank hairy twat? I've lived in London for 35+ years, nearly always within walking distance of Camden Market. For the last 11 years I have lived 300 metres away from the Market

The Market has grown busier and busier over that time (as it has expanded). Covid interrupted this, now the expansion continues

kjh · July 2022

ohnotnow said:

IanB2 said:

TimS said:
FPT

1976: not only were the Synoptics absolutely unique and not yet repeated, but the UK had the biggest warm anomaly of anywhere on earth that summer, with blues on the anomaly map across much of the rest of the planet. Now we are just one bit of a vast sea of red and orange, despite it being a (relatively cool) La Niña year globally.

If we saw June-July Synoptics in 2022 we would get a repeat of 1976, but with temperatures a degree of two higher.

Indeed this morning’s GFS run showed essentially a 1976-style run of hot days from next weekend, 34-36C day after day. Massive outlier big shows what would happen if we ever repeated the pattern.

June 1976 averaged 17.0C in central England, the same as July 2022 so far, before the heatwave.

1976 is the “we survived the blitz” of modern British climate denial.
But as a child at the time I remember that 1976 went on for ever and ever.

How can a heatwave that starts on Monday and lasts until Tuesday possibly compete?

Although tbf I see the boffins are suggesting we might get a replay the week following.
I remember that summer as a child too. Partly the endlessness of it, partly seeing the weathermen singing 'The Sun Has Got His Hat On'** and partly being continually clarted in probably the 1970s finest toxic sun-cream by my mother.

** Which I can't find a youtube video of now. Which is making me wonder if I made it up. But I'm sure I remember three forecasters in front of the weather map with Edwardian boaters singing it.

I had just finished Uni and was driving a laundry van for an industrial laundry. The van had slide doors so it was glorious driving with both doors open (no health and safety then), although one day going through the 6 crossroad roundabout in Woking flames were towering above the pine trees which was scary to drive past.

It rained on my graduation day in Manchester.

Gardenwalker · July 2022

Finally watched the debate with my wife.

Liz wasn’t as bad as advertised.
Tugendhat was insipid.
Mordaunt looked “badly briefed”, she was not always coherent.

Rishi was smarmy but on top of his detail. It was disappointing that no other candidate was able to put him under pressure as he is vulnerable to forensic attack.

We both independently thought Kemi our choice - someone who projects intelligence, coherence and conviction.

ohnotnow · July 2022

Haven't heard from Tony in days. Good to see him back in the limelight.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/jul/16/tory-leadership-race-rishi-sunak-keir-starmer-uk-politics-live-latest-news?page=with:block-62d2aa398f086e8f936977cf#block-62d2aa398f086e8f936977cf

-- Sir Tony Blair has issued a rallying call to western nations to come together to develop a coherent strategy to counter the rise of China as “the world’s second superpower”.

"How did Britain ever reach a point where Nigel Farage and Jeremy Corbyn came for a short but consequential time to shape our politics? Or America to a place where whether you got vaccinated denoted political allegiance?
The craziness in our own politics has to stop. We can’t afford the luxury of indulging fantasy. We need to put reason and strategy back in the saddle. And we need to do so with urgency."

kjh · July 2022

HYUFD said:
Truss is probably who Labour and the LDs least fear. However whoever wins has to perform a careful balancing act of holding the Leave backing redwall seats that won Boris his majority without losing Remain seats in the South which stayed Tory in 2019 to keep Corbyn out.

Leadership elections though are not just about picking a candidate your opponents fear but also someone who represents your party's core convictions

I agree.

I fear Tom and then Penny next.

I also agree with your last sentence, but if you think this why did you support Boris for so long?

TOPPING · July 2022

Leon said:

TOPPING said:

Leon said:

Cyclefree said:
An exceedingly pleasant 20 degrees here. My banana and citrus plants are doing very well indeed.

Husband has been invited to sign up for hustings. The nearest in person ones will be in Newcastle. None in this part of the NorthWest. He is not impressed by that. So it will be online
Camden Market, which is as busy as I've seen it in years.
Thus speaks an incomer. What a meaningless statement to make about "Camden Market" at the weekend in summer.
WTF are you on about, you big rank hairy twat? I've lived in London for 35+ years, nearly always within walking distance of Camden Market. For the last 11 years I have lived 300 metres away from the Market

The Market has grown busier and busier over that time (as it has expanded). Covid interrupted this, now the expansion continues

It is always busy you plonker. Covid notwithstanding. You incomer.

MattW · July 2022

Carnyx said:

MattW said:

TimS said:
FPT

1976: not only were the Synoptics absolutely unique and not yet repeated, but the UK had the biggest warm anomaly of anywhere on earth that summer, with blues on the anomaly map across much of the rest of the planet. Now we are just one bit of a vast sea of red and orange, despite it being a (relatively cool) La Niña year globally.

If we saw June-July Synoptics in 2022 we would get a repeat of 1976, but with temperatures a degree of two higher.

Indeed this morning’s GFS run showed essentially a 1976-style run of hot days from next weekend, 34-36C day after day. Massive outlier big shows what would happen if we ever repeated the pattern.

June 1976 averaged 17.0C in central England, the same as July 2022 so far, before the heatwave.

1976 is the “we survived the blitz” of modern British climate denial.
1976 was more that that, and generally I don't think we are anywhere near that yet.

It was for three months and nearly 18C average:

In the Central England Temperature series, 1976 is the hottest summer for more than 350 years. The average temperature over the whole summer (June, July, August) was 17.77 °C (63.99 °F), compared to the average for the unusually warm years between 2001–2008 of 16.30 °C (61.34 °F).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_British_Isles_heat_wave

The noticeable thing for me this year - Midlands - so far is the changeability of it. We have had a heat wave in spring, plus a cold period. Followed by May/June/July where we have continued to receive periodic rain - my garden water butts keep getting refilled by showers and overnight rain before they run completely dry.

Also the water problems in 1976 were also due to an extended serious shortage of rain from Summer 75 / Autumn 75 / Winter 75 / Spring 76.

Even in 2018 hosepipe bans started at the end of June. To date this year none are in place.

There are also background factors, such as reduced water reduced leakage in the supply.

I was going to add in reduced leakage, but when I can find immediate estimates that domestic is either 5% or 50% of total usage, I don't think that reliable figures exist.
Even so, the denial is a bit like saying house fires dont' exist because the average temperature of a burnt down house is about 25 degC averaged out for a year.

Is anyone still in denial about the gradual warming of the climate and the need to continue to address it?

Who?

Carnyx · July 2022

IshmaelZ said:

Carnyx said:

IshmaelZ said:
Here's what Penny Mordaunt claimed about the NHS during the Channel Four debate last night. Since then the tweets she posted making the same claim have been deleted from her account and her team have not responded to requests to explain what her claim was based on.

https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1548290880196333568

https://mobile.twitter.com/TheLondonLawye1/status/1548292444789256192

Replying to

@AdamBienkov

It’s probably this - 180 companies have had NHS funding for innovations - horribly misconstrued: https://england.nhs.uk/aac/what-we-do/how-can-the-aac-help-me/sbri-healthcare/

---

She is looking very accident prone
Or possibly she misheard someone saying that 180innovations plc isn't being used by the NHS? And mangled it. As suggested bu this chap.

https://mobile.twitter.com/binaryape/status/1548040814437093387

This coming out with any old guff on the spur of the moment is horribly familiar. 40 new hospitals and all that, remember?
But they seem to be a retail, Boots the chemist sort of thing

Yep, but the name is suspiciously similar. Anyway it's doomed to remain one of the great unanswered questions of the cosmos, like the Riemann hypothesis, and exactly what gender a Little Grey Alien is.

HYUFD · July 2022

kjh said:

HYUFD said:
Truss is probably who Labour and the LDs least fear. However whoever wins has to perform a careful balancing act of holding the Leave backing redwall seats that won Boris his majority without losing Remain seats in the South which stayed Tory in 2019 to keep Corbyn out.

Leadership elections though are not just about picking a candidate your opponents fear but also someone who represents your party's core convictions
I agree.

I fear Tom and then Penny next.

I also agree with your last sentence, but if you think this why did you support Boris for so long?

To deliver Brexit and beat Corbyn, which he did.

In terms of tax rises it was of course Sunak who has been heaviest on that.

MattW · July 2022

Leon said:

TOPPING said:

Leon said:

Cyclefree said:
An exceedingly pleasant 20 degrees here. My banana and citrus plants are doing very well indeed.

Husband has been invited to sign up for hustings. The nearest in person ones will be in Newcastle. None in this part of the NorthWest. He is not impressed by that. So it will be online
Camden Market, which is as busy as I've seen it in years.
Thus speaks an incomer. What a meaningless statement to make about "Camden Market" at the weekend in summer.
WTF are you on about, you big rank hairy twat? I've lived in London for 35+ years, nearly always within walking distance of Camden Market. For the last 11 years I have lived 300 metres away from the Market

The Market has grown busier and busier over that time (as it has expanded). Covid interrupted this, now the expansion continues

Awaits the evidence from @TOPPING that s/he shaves...

Carnyx · July 2022

MattW said:

Carnyx said:

MattW said:

TimS said:
FPT

1976: not only were the Synoptics absolutely unique and not yet repeated, but the UK had the biggest warm anomaly of anywhere on earth that summer, with blues on the anomaly map across much of the rest of the planet. Now we are just one bit of a vast sea of red and orange, despite it being a (relatively cool) La Niña year globally.

If we saw June-July Synoptics in 2022 we would get a repeat of 1976, but with temperatures a degree of two higher.

Indeed this morning’s GFS run showed essentially a 1976-style run of hot days from next weekend, 34-36C day after day. Massive outlier big shows what would happen if we ever repeated the pattern.

June 1976 averaged 17.0C in central England, the same as July 2022 so far, before the heatwave.

1976 is the “we survived the blitz” of modern British climate denial.
1976 was more that that, and generally I don't think we are anywhere near that yet.

It was for three months and nearly 18C average:

In the Central England Temperature series, 1976 is the hottest summer for more than 350 years. The average temperature over the whole summer (June, July, August) was 17.77 °C (63.99 °F), compared to the average for the unusually warm years between 2001–2008 of 16.30 °C (61.34 °F).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_British_Isles_heat_wave

The noticeable thing for me this year - Midlands - so far is the changeability of it. We have had a heat wave in spring, plus a cold period. Followed by May/June/July where we have continued to receive periodic rain - my garden water butts keep getting refilled by showers and overnight rain before they run completely dry.

Also the water problems in 1976 were also due to an extended serious shortage of rain from Summer 75 / Autumn 75 / Winter 75 / Spring 76.

Even in 2018 hosepipe bans started at the end of June. To date this year none are in place.

There are also background factors, such as reduced water reduced leakage in the supply.

I was going to add in reduced leakage, but when I can find immediate estimates that domestic is either 5% or 50% of total usage, I don't think that reliable figures exist.
Even so, the denial is a bit like saying house fires dont' exist because the average temperature of a burnt down house is about 25 degC averaged out for a year.
Is anyone still in denial about the gradual warming of the climate and the need to continue to address it?

Who?

Quite a few folk ... including some Tories. One of us was denying the need for net zero policies only a couple of hours ago, which is pretty much the same thing.

Edit: I have just realised yo might have thought my comment was aimed at you specifically. Not at all; apologies if it was misconstrued as such. It was an allusion to TimT's final comment, before your post (and again not aimed at him but the situation he mentions).

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