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Johnson’s opposition to Sunak could have the reverse effect – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,429
edited July 2022 in General
imageJohnson’s opposition to Sunak could have the reverse effect – politicalbetting.com

According to the Times Johnson is trying to stop Sunak from replacing him and is telling those who have been defeated in the race to support anybody else. This is from the report:

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,536
    First
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,076
    It probably won't make any difference. Someone who takes Mr Johnson's advice and votes anyone but Sunak, would probably have voted anyone but Sunak anyway.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    edited July 2022
    FPT:
    Leon said:

    show previous quotes
    We agree, nearly. I have a higher chance of 40C - 30%
    So long as we don't opt for 0% or 100% we cannot be proved wrong!

    (Of course the 'crisis' is diminishing - yesterday you said: "43C across central England. Breaking the record by 5 degrees. Like a Bob Beamon jump in climate")

  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,244
    edited July 2022
    So who’s the continuity Johnson candidate? Or is Johnsonism history already?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180
    edited July 2022
    I agree with Mike. One of Sunak's greatest weaknesses was that he did not offer as clean a break from the morass that the Boris government became as the other candidates, Penny in particular. By ostracising him and making clear that he is not continuity Boris in any way he is doing Rishi a favour.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    The Oaf is yesterday’s news.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 2,012
    Does kind of make me want Sunak to win now, as it is a stain on the country this appalling human being has had major influence over politics. The idea he gets to cast a shadow over who should succeed him is dismal. Though if he wants to torpedo the Tory Party for the next decade while working out his transparently psychopathic tendencies, I'm quite relaxed about that as it means we might actually get a government worthy of the name rather than the parade of clowns we've had over the last decade.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,076
    Jonathan said:

    Apparently the hot weather is due to Aliens using AI

    show previous quotes
    I think you’re wrong. Politics is about timing. There would have been moments when a Mourdaunt premiership would have been something to worry about, but now is not that moment. [snip]
    Isn't a Mordaunt Moment something you find in a box of Milk Tray?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,553
    StuartDickson said:

    The Oaf is yesterday’s news.

    Who?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,062
    In 1990 despite being ousted it was Thatcher's support for John Major that beat Heseltine.

    In this race Sunak would be Heseltine to Mordaunt's Major, with Truss basically now Norman Tebbit in a skirt
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Leon said:

    show previous quotes
    If it gets near 40C in London (quite likely now) I reckon we’ll see people jumping in the Thames. Which can be properly dangerous

    Go on Boris. You love leading folk into hairbrained endeavours.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180
    El_Capitano said:

    So who’s the continuity Johnson candidate? Or is Johnsonism history already?

    Truss.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,795
    El_Capitano said:

    So who’s the continuity Johnson candidate? Or is Johnsonism history already?

    Truss. Shes supported by JRM and Dorries and the ERG.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    It was 38.5C in August 2003.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,079
    I think it's going to be close.


  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    HYUFD said:

    In 1990 despite being ousted it was Thatcher's support for John Major that beat Heseltine.

    In this race Sunak would be Heseltine to Mordaunt's Major, with Truss basically now Norman Tebbit in a skirt

    Try getting on yer bike in a skirt.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    El_Capitano said:

    So who’s the continuity Johnson candidate? Or is Johnsonism history already?

    I prefer the @MikeL (I think it was) theory: Johnson engineers Truss into PM, Truss is a disaster, VoNC in September 2023, Johnson comes riding over the hill on a white charger to save the Tories.

    So ridiculous it might just play out.

    Genuine thought - I don't think Johnson has given up on politics yet.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Barnesian said:

    I think it's going to be close.


    An all-female shortlist? Very un-Tory.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    edited July 2022
    StuartDickson said:

    The Oaf is yesterday’s news.

    I wouldn't be so sure. I'd want to see him out of the HoC.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,079
    edited July 2022
    Barnesian said:

    I think it's going to be close.


    You can try different percentages here:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Po2HA9a7DDVi8tuTf-cV-wXdEhIjcCUg2fGqRcvl_cI/edit?usp=sharing

    Edit: I've just given it editing privilege.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,806
    Benpointer said:

    FPT:

    show previous quotes
    So long as we don't opt for 0% or 100% we cannot be proved wrong!

    (Of course the 'crisis' is diminishing - yesterday you said: "43C across central England. Breaking the record by 5 degrees. Like a Bob Beamon jump in climate")

    Except you miss out the next sentence where I say IF IT HAPPENS

    And you forget to mention that I was explicitly referring to a weather model, this one, which foresees exactly this: 43C across central England


  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012
    edited July 2022
    DavidL said:

    I agree with Mike. One of Sunak's greatest weaknesses was that he did not offer as clean a break from the morass that the Boris government became as the other candidates, Penny in particular. By ostracising him and making clear that he is not continuity Boris in any way he is doing Rishi a favour.

    However it does nothing to alter the basics: For the Tories Rishi is dangerous to appoint because of his decision to stay at No 11 for 6 months after the government and PM were plainly morally compromised. + Non Dom, Green Card and all that.

    However Labour still look competent enough, and a Lab/LD government would be a reasonable way forward. Appointing Rishi will progress that outcome.

    BTW a Lab/LD government would break no current promises by offering (after the election, with a manifesto promising to review options) a negotiation and referendum on EFTA/EEA membership, and dilute the appeal of the SNP at the same time.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180
    StuartDickson said:

    show previous quotes
    An all-female shortlist? Very un-Tory.
    Not really. For PMs they have gone Maggie, Major, Cameron, May, Boris then ? Another female PM is due.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Jonathan said:

    show previous quotes
    I don’t think Labour should fear her. She is an empty vessel and it looks like her own party will do for her.
    I still think that she is the best chance of Tories maintaining a majority. In order of probability of winning the next GE, I would put:

    Mordaunt
    Sunak
    Tugenhadt
    Truss
    Badenoch

    With Mordaunt the only one above the waterline of a majority.
    I think your analysis is spot on.

    Con Maj starts to look value if Mordaunt wins.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,481
    FPT Mr. Observer, I must agree. Temperatures of 25C at 10pm is bloody horrendous.

    The only PBers enjoying that will be lizards and lunatics.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,806
    Barnesian said:

    show previous quotes
    You can try different percentages here:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Po2HA9a7DDVi8tuTf-cV-wXdEhIjcCUg2fGqRcvl_cI/edit?usp=sharing

    Edit: I've just given it editing privilege.

    Any predictions are a gamble, given that we have debates - starting tonight - which could change everything
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,062
    Barnesian said:

    I think it's going to be close.


    So Rishi is knocked out in the final MPs ballot if that is correct like Portillo 2001, it looks plausible.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,795
    Benpointer said:

    show previous quotes
    I wouldn't be so sure. I'd want to see him out of the HoC.
    If he doesn't quit as a MP pretty damn quick after he's not PM a few eye brows will be raised.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,307
    Barnesian said:

    I think it's going to be close.


    Penny really needs a good chunk of those TT transfers. I suspect she gets them due to candidate profile etc but a lot of these things are things we can’t predict ie personal relationships and the like so it’s very hard to forecast.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    edited July 2022
    Leon said:

    show previous quotes
    Except you miss out the next sentence where I say IF IT HAPPENS

    And you forget to mention that I was explicitly referring to a weather model, this one, which foresees exactly this: 43C across central England


    The full quote was:

    "43C across central England. Breaking the record by 5 degrees. Like a Bob Beamon jump in climate

    This is - if it happens - our version of the Canadian Heat dome"

    No reference, explicit or otherwise, to anything apart from Bob Beamon and the Canadian Heat Dome.

    But chill! It doesn't really matter, it's all a bit of fun.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,108
    HYUFD said:

    show previous quotes
    So Rishi is knocked out in the final MPs ballot if that is correct like Portillo 2001, it looks plausible.
    I have a little money riding on that already, just in case
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,079
    Leon said:

    show previous quotes

    Any predictions are a gamble, given that we have debates - starting tonight - which could change everything
    Yes they are a gamble! That's why there is a spread of odds.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180
    algarkirk said:

    show previous quotes
    However it does nothing to alter the basics: For the Tories Rishi is dangerous to appoint because of his decision to stay at No 11 for 6 months after the government and PM were plainly morally compromised. + Non Dom, Green Card and all that.

    However Labour still look competent enough, and a Lab/LD government would be a reasonable way forward. Appointing Rishi will progress that outcome.

    I am still worried about Mordaunt. She strikes me as a largely blank slate onto which people are projecting their dreams with very little evidence. We also don't need another PM with such a poor relationship with the truth. I am even more worried by Truss who is a seriously over promoted nutter. Rishi has serious flaws, his last budget was awful and needs corrected but of those 3 he seems to me to be the safe option.

    Of course Mordaunt may prove to be excellent but she would be our least experienced PM since Blair in 97. It's a bit of a gamble given what seems to be coming down the track economically.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,062
    StuartDickson said:

    show previous quotes
    I still think that she is the best chance of Tories maintaining a majority. In order of probability of winning the next GE, I would put:

    Mordaunt
    Sunak
    Tugenhadt
    Truss
    Badenoch

    With Mordaunt the only one above the waterline of a majority.
    I think your analysis is spot on.

    Con Maj starts to look value if Mordaunt wins.

    I would put Badenoch ahead of Truss, she is less experienced but Truss is the least electable of the candidates remaining
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,806
    Benpointer said:

    show previous quotes
    The full quote was:

    "43C across central England. Breaking the record by 5 degrees. Like a Bob Beamon jump in climate

    This is - if it happens - our version of the Canadian Heat dome"

    No reference to anything apart from Bob Beamon and the Canadian Heat Dome.

    But chill! It doesn't really matter, it's all a bit of fun.
    It does matter because you’re misrepresenting me and I am in a petulant mood. I was explicitly referring to that model chart above, not plucking figures out of my imperial Cornish butt. Tsk
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    Slackbladder said:

    show previous quotes
    If he doesn't quit as a MP pretty damn quick after he's not PM a few eye brows will be raised.
    May's still there.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,159
    @Carnyx FPT I meant rioting in England, like 2011. We don't really do that in Scotland, though Kelvingrove can be fun during Royal Weddings.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    edited July 2022
    Leon said:

    show previous quotes
    It does matter because you’re misrepresenting me and I am in a petulant mood. I was explicitly referring to that model chart above, not plucking figures out of my imperial Cornish butt. Tsk
    Where is the explicit reference in your post?

    There was no blockquote, no link, no paste of that chart.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Benpointer said:

    show previous quotes
    May's still there.
    Bear in mind he has still got the Privileges committee on his ass. A suspension and lost recall election would be so humiliating he might jump in advance of that.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,795
    Benpointer said:

    show previous quotes
    May's still there.
    May is a very different person to Johnson. She clearly enjoys being an MP. Boris wants power and fame and money. Being a backbencher doesn't give you any of those things.



  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,371
    DavidL said:

    show previous quotes
    I am still worried about Mordaunt. She strikes me as a largely blank slate onto which people are projecting their dreams with very little evidence. We also don't need another PM with such a poor relationship with the truth. I am even more worried by Truss who is a seriously over promoted nutter. Rishi has serious flaws, his last budget was awful and needs corrected but of those 3 he seems to me to be the safe option.

    Of course Mordaunt may prove to be excellent but she would be our least experienced PM since Blair in 97. It's a bit of a gamble given what seems to be coming down the track economically.
    "We also don't need another PM with such a poor relationship with the truth. "

    What's your evidence for the assertion that she has a 'poor relationship with the truth' ?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    IshmaelZ said:

    show previous quotes
    Bear in mind he has still got the Privileges committee on his ass. A suspension and lost recall election would be so humiliating he might jump in advance of that.
    Good points
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,279
    Morris_Dancer said:

    FPT Mr. Observer, I must agree. Temperatures of 25C at 10pm is bloody horrendous.

    The only PBers enjoying that will be lizards and lunatics.

    Not sure which I am - I'm loving it. Two glorious days of golf planned.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,677
    Benpointer said:

    show previous quotes
    I prefer the @MikeL (I think it was) theory: Johnson engineers Truss into PM, Truss is a disaster, VoNC in September 2023, Johnson comes riding over the hill on a white charger to save the Tories.

    So ridiculous it might just play out.

    Genuine thought - I don't think Johnson has given up on politics yet.
    I think the last sentence is correct. One of his quite attractive qualities is that he's resilient, almost Kiplingesque ("treat triumph and disaster just the same"). I can't imagine him settling by the fire and spending his days watching daytime TV. That's why I suggested he might have another try for London Mayor, but being a backbench rebel might amuse him too.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    edited July 2022
    HYUFD said:

    show previous quotes
    I think your analysis is spot on.

    Con Maj starts to look value if Mordaunt wins.
    I would put Badenoch ahead of Truss, she is less experienced but Truss is the least electable of the candidates remaining

    Less than 200 posts to go to the 100k @HYUFD - I'll almost certainly miss the 100,000th but well done in advance!

    Edit: I've bollocksed up blockquote and don't have time to sort it out, so I've also pinched your comment - sorry!
  • MJWMJW Posts: 2,012
    HYUFD said:

    In 1990 despite being ousted it was Thatcher's support for John Major that beat Heseltine.

    In this race Sunak would be Heseltine to Mordaunt's Major, with Truss basically now Norman Tebbit in a skirt

    The idea Sunak is the Heseltine shows how far the party has gone down the rabbithole. Heseltine, and Clarke after him lost as were open pro-Europeans in a party that isn't. Which is fine. A leader can't be that at odds with their party on such a big issue, so they generally pre-Brexit selected Eurosceptic leaders who none-the-less thought it was a bad idea to leave altogether rather than gripe from within. The fact Sunak, an actual dyed-in -the-wool Brexiteer who believes it can be made a success of rather than suffered, is apparently the moderate unloved by the party, shows quit what a bonkers and ludicrous situation the Conservative Party is in.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180
    JosiasJessop said:

    show previous quotes
    "We also don't need another PM with such a poor relationship with the truth. "

    What's your evidence for the assertion that she has a 'poor relationship with the truth' ?
    The various points made by various contributors yesterday. I freely admit that she was not on my radar until the end of last week. Reversing ferret on transgender issues having won the Pink News Parliamentarian of the year was one of the stand outs IIRC. And an unfortunate change at that, from my perspective.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,029
    edited July 2022
    Good morning

    The Mail today is conducting a comprehensive hatchet job on Mordaunt and has clearly not given up on Johnson who in their poll tops the list of best for PM

    This is a defining moment for today's conservative party, and hopefully the vast majority of their mps recognise the damage to their prospects that would follow if they entertain the ERG and pro Johnson wing and ensure Mordaunt at least is put to the membership
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161
    With respect to the heat wave, it's worth recalling that in Canada last summer they broke their national temperature record by 4.6C. An equivalent for the UK would see a new record of 43.3C.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,806
    edited July 2022
    Benpointer said:

    show previous quotes
    Where is the explicit reference in your post?

    There was no blockquote, no link, no paste of that chart.
    Are you just a fucking moron? Or actually the full and complete fucking moron?

    My comment directly preceding that was THIS:



    ****
    If this verifies, and it is getting closer, this will dominate the news for days. Incredible stuff

    These are lethal temperatures and many will die




    ***

    So that’s what I was referring to in my very next comment, you pitiful dung-eater
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,062
    MJW said:

    show previous quotes
    The idea Sunak is the Heseltine shows how far the party has gone down the rabbithole. Heseltine, and Clarke after him lost as were open pro-Europeans in a party that isn't. Which is fine. A leader can't be that at odds with their party on such a big issue, so they generally pre-Brexit selected Eurosceptic leaders who none-the-less thought it was a bad idea to leave altogether rather than gripe from within. The fact Sunak, an actual dyed-in -the-wool Brexiteer who believes it can be made a success of rather than suffered, is apparently the moderate unloved by the party, shows quit what a bonkers and ludicrous situation the Conservative Party is in.
    Tugendhat is ideologically closer to Heseltine, Sunak to Portillo but the point was the Boris camp is seeking to stop Sunak as Thatcher tried to stop Heseltine in 1990. Sunak maybe heading for defeat like Heseltine in 1990 or even knock out like Portillo 2001
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,079
    There are only three realistic outcomes:

    Sunak/Mordaunt - Mordaunt is PM. She is the overwhelming favourite of the Tory membership.
    Truss/ Mordaunt - Mordaunt is PM. As above.
    Sunak/Truss - Sunak is PM. Membership upset with Truss for edging out Mordaunt, don't want continuity Boris, and don't see Truss as an election winner.

    In no case is Truss PM - unfortunately for the opposition and fortunately for the country.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,371
    DavidL said:

    show previous quotes
    The various points made by various contributors yesterday. I freely admit that she was not on my radar until the end of last week. Reversing ferret on transgender issues having won the Pink News Parliamentarian of the year was one of the stand outs IIRC. And an unfortunate change at that, from my perspective.
    Did she 'reverse ferret' ? What exactly did she say before and after this 'reverse ferret'?

    People are freely calling PM a liar on here, but when asked, no-one seems to be able to point out to *how* she is lying, aside from the fact others claim she is. Perhaps she is, but it would be good to see the evidence - and also whether the other candidates are being held up to the same standards.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,806
    Stocky said:

    show previous quotes
    Not sure which I am - I'm loving it. Two glorious days of golf planned.
    You’re going to play golf in ~40C??

    That’s…..

    ….

    …..,,,

    … brave
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,012
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Good morning

    The Mail today is conducting a comprehensive hatchet job on Mordaunt and has clearly not given up on Johnson who in their poll tops the list of best for PM

    This is a defining moment for today's conservative party, and hopefully the vast majority of their mps recognise the damage to their prospects that would follow if they entertain the ERG and pro Johnson wing and ensure Mordaunt at least is put to the membership

    The Mail is a malign influence on our culture.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,012
    squareroot2 said:

    show previous quotes
    The Mail is a malign influence on our culture.
    Mind you... if the Mail doesn't like her, she us the one to vote for.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,425
    Barnesian said:

    I think it's going to be close.


    Sunak only getting 10-20% of the remaining candidates votes seems extremely low.

    My gut percentages also leave it close but see Mordaunt narrowly eliminated instead.
    image
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,569
    Re Mr Palmer's comment; I can't see Boris Johnson following Edward Heath's example and becoming 'miserable old git of the house'. I think he's more likely to be trouble for a few months and then get bored by the next election
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,307
    Barnesian said:

    There are only three realistic outcomes:

    Sunak/Mordaunt - Mordaunt is PM. She is the overwhelming favourite of the Tory membership.
    Truss/ Mordaunt - Mordaunt is PM. As above.
    Sunak/Truss - Sunak is PM. Membership upset with Truss for edging out Mordaunt, don't want continuity Boris, and don't see Truss as an election winner.

    In no case is Truss PM - unfortunately for the opposition and fortunately for the country.

    I wish I could be convinced of this but I am 99% certain Truss beats Sunak in a match up.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,371
    Leon said:

    show previous quotes
    You’re going to play golf in ~40C??

    That’s…..

    ….

    …..,,,

    … brave
    In August 2003 temperature in the UK reached 38.5 degrees C. At the time I was on my coastal walk, but as I was in the very north of Scotland the weather was much cooler - in fact from memory it was perfect walking weather.

    Another coastal walker was much further south, and he was starting his walk at three or four in the morning each day to avoid the heat, finishing well before midday. I got the impression he did not enjoy himself.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,108
    NickPalmer said:

    show previous quotes
    I think the last sentence is correct. One of his quite attractive qualities is that he's resilient, almost Kiplingesque ("treat triumph and disaster just the same"). I can't imagine him settling by the fire and spending his days watching daytime TV. That's why I suggested he might have another try for London Mayor, but being a backbench rebel might amuse him too.
    There is no way London would vote for him again. His electoral magic is gone, and London is in any case moving further away from the Tories.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,425
    Leon said:

    show previous quotes
    You’re going to play golf in ~40C??

    That’s…..

    ….

    …..,,,

    … brave
    Sounds glorious.

    Would you say someone in Florida was brave for playing golf in that weather?

    Stop being such a moaning Myrtle, we're going to have some good weather for a few days, can't you just enjoy it?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,806
    Let’s hope Mordaunt trounces Truss tonight
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,195
    edited July 2022
    Betfair next PM

    2.2 Penny Mordaunt 45%
    3.55 Liz Truss 28%
    4.7 Rishi Sunak 21%
    28 Kemi Badenoch
    170 Tom Tugendhat
    170 Dominic Raab

    Betfair to reach the final two (note Sunak shortest but only third best for next pm)

    1.3 Rishi Sunak 77%
    1.37 Penny Mordaunt 73%
    2.26 Liz Truss 44%
    15 Kemi Badenoch 7%
    60 Tom Tugendhat
  • KeystoneKeystone Posts: 127
    algarkirk said:

    show previous quotes
    However it does nothing to alter the basics: For the Tories Rishi is dangerous to appoint because of his decision to stay at No 11 for 6 months after the government and PM were plainly morally compromised. + Non Dom, Green Card and all that.

    However Labour still look competent enough, and a Lab/LD government would be a reasonable way forward. Appointing Rishi will progress that outcome.

    BTW a Lab/LD government would break no current promises by offering (after the election, with a manifesto promising to review options) a negotiation and referendum on EFTA/EEA membership, and dilute the appeal of the SNP at the same time.

    The problem facing Truss is that she is a charisma-free zone.

    Voters won't give her the benefit of the doubt or vote for her. I'm sure the Swing voter focus groups being carried out now are producing similar results. Brexiteers seem to have a curious blind spot about this.

    Ultimately, she just looks a bit - odd. For similar reasons to May, voters won't go for Truss. It's not fair but it is modern politics.

    Mordaunt has different problems. She would be vulnerable to attacks on economic competence at the next election - which is electoral kryptonite for the Conservative party.

    It's a bit of a poisoned chalice. I'm sure Raab and Patel have an eye on a run in 2025.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,536
    LostPassword said:

    With respect to the heat wave, it's worth recalling that in Canada last summer they broke their national temperature record by 4.6C. An equivalent for the UK would see a new record of 43.3C.

    What surprised me about that was that Canada hadn't recorded those sorts of temperatures before. It's part of a continental landmass, so I'd have thought it would have got very hot at times.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,012
    Penny's lack of experience is a concern. She's probably aware that she'll need a Willie.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,806
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    show previous quotes
    Sounds glorious.

    Would you say someone in Florida was brave for playing golf in that weather?

    Stop being such a moaning Myrtle, we're going to have some good weather for a few days, can't you just enjoy it?

    You don’t get out much, do you?

    40C is not golfing weather
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,641
    OldKingCole said:

    Re Mr Palmer's comment; I can't see Boris Johnson following Edward Heath's example and becoming 'miserable old git of the house'. I think he's more likely to be trouble for a few months and then get bored by the next election

    Absolutely, Boris will resign his seat in the autumn and there will be a by election by the end of the year.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,234
    Final 2 prices

    RS 1.3 / 1.36 73.5% - 76.9%
    PM 1.37 / 1.4 71.4% - 73%
    LT 2.26/2.38 42.0% - 44.2%

    Winner prices (Next Con)

    RS 4.7
    PM 2.16
    LT 3.5

    Implied probability at members stage

    RS 27.7% / 28.9%
    PM 63.4% / 64.8%
    LT 64.6% / 68%

    Mordaunt has to be way more than a 63% chance against Sunak (And at least that with Truss) with the members surely ?

  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746
    In terms of charisma, Truss makes Starmer look like Don Draper.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,425
    edited July 2022
    Leon said:

    show previous quotes

    You don’t get out much, do you?

    40C is not golfing weather
    I grew up in Australia. If you're healthy and don't have heart conditions you absolutely can be golfing in 40C weather.

    Slip, slop, slap. Stay hydrated and enjoy it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,673
    MarqueeMark said:

    Truss: all the worst bits of the Johnson government without anything positive to add.

    And not a party I would be supporting.

    Liz Truss, the only person who would become smarter after a lobotomy.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Leon said:

    show previous quotes

    You don’t get out much, do you?

    40C is not golfing weather
    As a golfer, I endorse that entirely. And remember that the temperatures quoted in weather forecasts are only those in the shade.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    OldKingCole said:

    Re Mr Palmer's comment; I can't see Boris Johnson following Edward Heath's example and becoming 'miserable old git of the house'. I think he's more likely to be trouble for a few months and then get bored by the next election

    Never mind bored, he needs to get out from under committees enquiring into lies and Italy trips and peerages and Kabul asap.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729
    Why would Johnson quit as MP? He must have a decent chance in the next leadership election.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,062
    Keystone said:

    show previous quotes
    The problem facing Truss is that she is a charisma-free zone.

    Voters won't give her the benefit of the doubt or vote for her. I'm sure the Swing voter focus groups being carried out now are producing similar results. Brexiteers seem to have a curious blind spot about this.

    Ultimately, she just looks a bit - odd. For similar reasons to May, voters won't go for Truss. It's not fair but it is modern politics.

    Mordaunt has different problems. She would be vulnerable to attacks on economic competence at the next election - which is electoral kryptonite for the Conservative party.

    It's a bit of a poisoned chalice. I'm sure Raab and Patel have an eye on a run in 2025.
    Raab has to hold his seat first
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,985
    JosiasJessop said:

    show previous quotes
    "We also don't need another PM with such a poor relationship with the truth. "

    What's your evidence for the assertion that she has a 'poor relationship with the truth' ?
    The business about the veto over Turkey joining the EU.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,425
    IshmaelZ said:

    show previous quotes
    Sorry, you are telling us what we should wear as a health precaution, despite hot summers having become endemic? Do you want to live forever?
    No, I'm giving friendly advice. Its entirely up to you what you choose to wear.

    There's nothing wrong with giving advice, when you expect that advice to be taken that's where we have a problem.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,195
    edited July 2022
    Pulpstar said:

    Final 2 prices

    RS 1.3 / 1.36 73.5% - 76.9%
    PM 1.37 / 1.4 71.4% - 73%
    LT 2.26/2.38 42.0% - 44.2%

    Winner prices (Next Con)

    RS 4.7
    PM 2.16
    LT 3.5

    Implied probability at members stage

    RS 27.7% / 28.9%
    PM 63.4% / 64.8%
    LT 64.6% / 68%

    Mordaunt has to be way more than a 63% chance against Sunak (And at least that with Truss) with the members surely ?

    iirc Opinium had Rishi beating Penny in a head-to-head but everyone remembers the other way round on Yougov.

    E2A link to Opinium
    https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/con-members-polling-09072022/
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited July 2022
    Techne poll thus morning with a partial reversion of the defenestration/chaos slump. Tories i suspect helped by 24/7 coverage this week

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB 40% (-1)
    CON 31% (+2)
    LDEM: 13% (-1)
    GRN: 6% (-)

    via @techneUK, 14 Jul
    https://t.co/5ksWvcS8Xq
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,806
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    show previous quotes
    Sounds glorious.

    Would you say someone in Florida was brave for playing golf in that weather?

    Stop being such a moaning Myrtle, we're going to have some good weather for a few days, can't you just enjoy it?
    Florida’s highest ever temperature is 42C, but that’s extremely unusual - eg in Orlando the highest temp has been ~37C for the last ten years

    https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/USA/FL/Orlando/extreme-annual-orlando-high-temperature.php


    So Floridians never get the chance to play golf in ~40C. I’ll leave it to others to determine whether they SHOULD play golf at ~40C
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,307
    Keystone said:

    show previous quotes
    The problem facing Truss is that she is a charisma-free zone.

    Voters won't give her the benefit of the doubt or vote for her. I'm sure the Swing voter focus groups being carried out now are producing similar results. Brexiteers seem to have a curious blind spot about this.

    Ultimately, she just looks a bit - odd. For similar reasons to May, voters won't go for Truss. It's not fair but it is modern politics.

    Mordaunt has different problems. She would be vulnerable to attacks on economic competence at the next election - which is electoral kryptonite for the Conservative party.

    It's a bit of a poisoned chalice. I'm sure Raab and Patel have an eye on a run in 2025.
    It’s interesting you mention May - to be honest I think Truss even struggles compared to her.

    May was a charisma free zone but at least had that church warden, headmistressy sort of vibe going for her which, particularly in the early months, did exude some form of competence.

    Truss doesn’t even have that. She has an awkward grin/grimace straight out of a caricature, a clumsyness that somehow manages to avoid being endearing in any way, and a leaden, uninspiring delivery.

    I honestly was reminded just how terrible a public speaker she was yesterday. Forget Theresa May and Gordon Brown - at least they could add emphasis at the right points.

    Can you imagine this woman inspiring a nation to go to the polls to vote for her? She would be an utter disaster.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Final pair match ups, asked of the general public (Redfield & W, published in the i)
    "....which would you prefer to become Prime Minister

    Sunak 39% v Truss 37%

    Truss 26% v Mordaunt 27%

    Mordaunt 39% v Sunak 32%

    The remaining % is don't knows.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,508
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    show previous quotes
    I grew up in Australia. If you're healthy and don't have heart conditions you absolutely can be golfing in 40C weather.

    Slip, slop, slap. Stay hydrated and enjoy it.
    It depends on the humidity. 104 in dry heat is endurable. 104 in 100% humidity is life-threatening even for healthy people.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,569
    edited July 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    show previous quotes
    Never mind bored, he needs to get out from under committees enquiring into lies and Italy trips and peerages and Kabul asap.
    He can still be dragged in front of the committee even if he's no longer a Member! And committees have quite considerable powers to exact penalties!
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    show previous quotes
    iirc Opinium had Rishi beating Penny in a head-to-head but everyone remembers the other way round on Yougov.

    E2A link to Opinium
    https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/con-members-polling-09072022/
    Times voodoo poll has Rishi 43% to PM 30%

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/91101146-03ba-11ed-aa15-45d37b45dc0d?shareToken=712bc9ac92f42b9a57abeb4625a1b40b
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,425
    Leon said:

    show previous quotes
    Florida’s highest ever temperature is 42C, but that’s extremely unusual - eg in Orlando the highest temp has been ~37C for the last ten years

    https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/USA/FL/Orlando/extreme-annual-orlando-high-temperature.php


    So Floridians never get the chance to play golf in ~40C. I’ll leave it to others to determine whether they SHOULD play golf at ~40C
    OK, I didn't realise that Florida was as moderate as that, I should have said Australians then.

    I grew up in Melbourne, Vic, close to a golf course and we'd get 40C+ temperatures most summers. The golf course would be very popular and not shut down in that temperature.

    Those in Queensland and NSW would get those temperatures even more often.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,307
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Final pair match ups, asked of the general public (Redfield & W, published in the i)
    "....which would you prefer to become Prime Minister

    Sunak 39% v Truss 37%

    Truss 26% v Mordaunt 27%

    Mordaunt 39% v Sunak 32%

    The remaining % is don't knows.

    Those are interesting in the sense that they don’t really give anyone a massive boost.

  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,381
    edited July 2022
    StuartDickson said:

    show previous quotes
    I still think that she is the best chance of Tories maintaining a majority. In order of probability of winning the next GE, I would put:

    Mordaunt
    Sunak
    Tugenhadt
    Truss
    Badenoch

    With Mordaunt the only one above the waterline of a majority.
    "I think your analysis is spot on.

    Con Maj starts to look value if Mordaunt wins."

    Interesting that you think Badenoch is less electable than Truss. I think there's 80% chance Badenoch would be a flop and give Labour a working majority, but I don't think it's impossible she could turn out to be surprisingly popular.
    Cosplay Thatcher, on the other hand, I'm near certain will be a disaster.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    OldKingCole said:

    show previous quotes
    He can still be dragged in front of the committee even if he's no longer a Member! And committees have quite considerable powers to exact penalties!
    He can but I am pretty sure hes has more wiggle room as xMP than MP.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,806
    Fishing said:

    show previous quotes
    It depends on the humidity. 104 in dry heat is endurable. 104 in 100% humidity is life-threatening even for healthy people.
    And that’s endurable, not enjoyable

    At ~40C the sensible instinct of 97% of humanity will be: head to the shade, have a cold shower, drink lots of water, find aircon, don’t do anything too energetic

    Go out onto a sun-crushed golf course to vigorously thwack a ball around? Er, no
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,371
    No_Offence_Alan said:

    show previous quotes
    The business about the veto over Turkey joining the EU.
    Thanks; I missed that. Do you mean the things she said in 2016?

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/penny-mordaunt-andrew-marr-uk-veto-tory-minister-accused-of-flat-out-lying-over-turkey-joining-the-eu-a7041956.html

    From memory, many people on here seemed to agree with her... ;)
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    show previous quotes
    Sunak only getting 10-20% of the remaining candidates votes seems extremely low.

    My gut percentages also leave it close but see Mordaunt narrowly eliminated instead.
    image
    Braverman has 27 currently, not 32
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,673
    edited July 2022
    On this day in 1988, Die Hard starring Bruce Willis was released.

    I mean you don't release a Christmas film in the middle of summer do you? DO YOU?
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,425
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    show previous quotes
    Braverman has 27 currently, not 32
    I didn't spot that, I only editted the percentages not the numbers. The original I replied to had 32 for Braverman too it seems.

    Doesn't change the outcome. On my percentages Mordaunt is narrowly knocked out, though it does narrow the gap.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    edited July 2022
    numbertwelve said:

    show previous quotes
    It’s interesting you mention May - to be honest I think Truss even struggles compared to her.

    May was a charisma free zone but at least had that church warden, headmistressy sort of vibe going for her which, particularly in the early months, did exude some form of competence.

    Truss doesn’t even have that. She has an awkward grin/grimace straight out of a caricature, a clumsyness that somehow manages to avoid being endearing in any way, and a leaden, uninspiring delivery.

    I honestly was reminded just how terrible a public speaker she was yesterday. Forget Theresa May and Gordon Brown - at least they could add emphasis at the right points.

    Can you imagine this woman inspiring a nation to go to the polls to vote for her? She would be an utter disaster.
    Here's a thought. Do the Remainers in the party gang up to eliminate Truss before she gets to the final three?

    She's 15 votes ahead of Badenoch which is large but not huge and a smaller gap than between Truss and Mordaunt.

    If you are worried the ERG will propel her through, maybe better to knock her out now.

  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    numbertwelve said:

    show previous quotes
    Those are interesting in the sense that they don’t really give anyone a massive boost.

    That was my immediate reaction too.
This discussion has been closed.