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The papers are in no doubt about the Tory winner – politicalbetting.com

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  • I remember that day. I took the little 'un to a play barn (baby cage) in Peterborough, and as I drove back down the A1(M) the temperate gauge in the car approached 40 degrees. Fantastically hot.
    Went to a wedding in Northamptonshire. Had driven up from our seaside home in Devon. Was muttering to myself all the way !
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,361

    First, politicians are not compared with average Joes like yourself, they are compared with other politicians.

    On your second point, that interviewers try to catch out interviewees, I suspect too much of what passes for media training consists of parrying awkward questions. Gordon Brown famously took two days to tell mumsnet his favourite biscuit because it might be a trap!

    Youtube has many examples of politicians from previous generations. They tend to be better than today's at these things. My advice to any aspiring politician (or job-seeker or footballer) is practice makes perfect, or at least a damn sight better than dodging the studios for years then turning up cold when it really matters.
    The past was a different world. There was far less media, and far fewer interviews. A bad interview by a B-list politician in the 1980s would not have got a mention; today it is on Twitter immediately (as we saw with the slightly concocted one yesterday).

    But I would agree that media training has become important than it was; I'd just disagree that ye olde politicians were 'better' at interviews and speeches. If you put them in front of the modern media, they'd probably fail just as much.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,112

    Truss also walked off the stage the wrong way. Reminds me a bit of May, just much worse

    Reminds me of May, but not in a good way...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    But really a homeopathic remedy (or something else you invent) is the only way to administer a placebo successfully. And we know placebos work, and in some cases are probably less harmful than a drug. So why ban their use, and reduce the options for doctors still further?

    Reminds me of this very funny clip:
    https://youtu.be/ntWO7jnOcWE
    Homoeopathy is not required for placebos. As is blatantly obvious in, for instance, orthopaedic medicine where drugs are often not involved at all. So the placebo thing is not a justification for the criminal fraud that is homoeopathy.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,782

    Indeed. GFS 18z throwing out fantasy charts. It’s going to be disgustingly hot. But not that hot. As Leon knows.
    No I don’t. These predictions are now in the more-reliable time frame. Less than 7 days

    Is it likely? No. It is possible? Unfortunately yes
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,073

    No, I think she'd give out the right (right) signals and get that wing of the party on board fairly easily. I'd see Penny being fairly traditional in that her cabinet will attempt to use all the available talent regardless of affiliation.
    But they just don’t seem to like or trust her. 😕 you must admit that.

    Plus the grumbling why did Boris have to go, if polling don’t improve.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,507

    Labour has such a golden window here. The Tories are exiting the field.

    Keir Starmer couldn’t have a better chance to be the change candidate and to be on the side of normal people. Get on with it

    That would need him to have the faintest idea what to do about the problems we face, in particular on the economy. And to have the nerve to take a few risks in addressing them. So it won't happen.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,735

    From a technical point of view, is it possible to slow the repayment of Covid era debt without effectively defaulting?
    I suspect you take everything falling due and instead of refinancing on a 2 year basis you do it over x years.

    Of course anything you save in repayment costs will be lost by higher borrowing costs due to paying interest for 10 years rather than 2
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    American beer
    ☝️
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    So, which of the remaining candidates is going to take the risk of a proper interview over the weekend? An Andrew Neil, Stephen Sackur, or even an Emma Barnett.

    It would be good to hear them talk to the general audience, rather than exclusively to their fellow Tory MPs - and most of them have one or two difficult questions that need to be asked.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,073

    Indeed. GFS 18z throwing out fantasy charts. It’s going to be disgustingly hot. But not that hot. As Leon knows.
    What’s the right thing to have for dinner if it’s +30 for days in a row? 😓
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    edited July 2022
    Endillion said:

    If woke is rampant why haven't we encountered it in work

    I genuinely don't know what to make of this comment. Every single moderately large company has a social media team who pump out a near continuous stream of vacuous virtue-signalling nonsense on equality, diversity, inclusion etc for every minority group under the sun. It's particularly prevalent in June, when they all change their corporate logos to include rainbows for Pride month. LinkedIn becomes even more unreadable than usual because of the weight of posts on the subject. I absolutely do not understand how anyone could be in the workforce and not have noticed this, somewhere.
    You say "vacuous virtue-signalling nonsense on equality, diversity, inclusion", I say common sense and good business practice.

    Of course, if equality and inclusion is not your thing...
  • https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/uk-labour-briefed-on-election-winning-by-australian-labor-party

    Right now the Tories are copying the losing strategy of the Australian Liberals.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814
    I’ve long thought we should pick MPs by lottery the same way we do jury duty. Our government is over represented by people who feel themselves born to rule or that are captured by special interests.

    If the fickle finger of fate in such a system led to someone like PM as PM, then I don’t think we’d be too upset with that. It’s just that we are conditioned to think we must be governed by a certain type.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,814
    Carnyx said:

    Homoeopathy is not required for placebos. As is blatantly obvious in, for instance, orthopaedic medicine where drugs are often not involved at all. So the placebo thing is not a justification for the criminal fraud that is homoeopathy.
    Clearly 'it' or something like it is required, because a parent can give a child a sugar or vitamin pill and tell them it's their medicine, but a doctor cannot do that with an adult patient. So the psychological effect is lost. See the clip!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,563
    OllyT said:

    Part of the problem is anti-woke obsessives running round trying to find the next thing to be offended by and try to blow it out of all proportion.

    IIRC about a year ago Leon, Mr Ed and Casino were telling us that footballers taking the knee and someone pushing a statue into Bristol harbour was truly the end of civilisation as we know it. They frothed on about it for days but 12 months on nobody gives a toss.
    A few years ago eldest granddaughter was a supply teacher teaching PHSE around around the country. At only one school was there a complaint of any sort about what she was teaching; she remarked to me afterwards that the parents in question were not prepared to consider any view other than their own!
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,073
    MrEd said:

    I think so if she gets to the members contest. It will be raised ad infinitum.

    Great link.

    That’s the sort of reason I, and so many other people on the right, am so massively behind her. That’s exactly what the Tories need to save them.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,782
    PB lefties are criminally fucking stupid. It’s the only explanation. For everything
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,849

    What do homeopathy and sex in a canoe have in common?

    Tomorrow's Daily Mail SHOCK EXPOSE to sink socialist Sunak?
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,593

    What’s the right thing to have for dinner if it’s +30 for days in a row? 😓
    Anything that doesn't need cooking. I'm certainly not going to put the oven on for a roast this weekend (although Sunday is now looking comparatively moderate).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,491
    edited July 2022

    ☝️
    Outdated view...lots of excellent American beer these days.

    UK is just as awash with terrible stuff that is simply brewed under licence and cost engineered away from orginal recipe by a Heineken or InBev.
  • Leon said:

    PB lefties are criminally fucking stupid. It’s the only explanation. For everything

    Is this because they called you out about the weather?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,782
    edited July 2022
    On the other hand, Tivqt airport is adorable
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296

    What’s the right thing to have for dinner if it’s +30 for days in a row? 😓
    Salmorejo. Our tomatoes are ripening nicely, going to make some for Saturday.

    https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2012/aug/05/jose-pizarro-andalucia-spain-recipes
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,814

    But they just don’t seem to like or trust her. 😕 you must admit that.

    Plus the grumbling why did Boris have to go, if polling don’t improve.
    This is a vastly truncated election campaign. Candidates who are struggling are going to make attacks and pull tricks. I wouldn't worry too much about it. Boris survived as PM, with arguably a very talentless cabinet, and was only ejected because of extra-curricular activities and errors of judgement. Nobody trusted Thatcher the milk snatcher either.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,782

    Is this because they called you out about the weather?
    QED
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,322
    Endillion said:

    If woke is rampant why haven't we encountered it in work

    I genuinely don't know what to make of this comment. Every single moderately large company has a social media team who pump out a near continuous stream of vacuous virtue-signalling nonsense on equality, diversity, inclusion etc for every minority group under the sun. It's particularly prevalent in June, when they all change their corporate logos to include rainbows for Pride month. LinkedIn becomes even more unreadable than usual because of the weight of posts on the subject. I absolutely do not understand how anyone could be in the workforce and not have noticed this, somewhere.
    So, including rainbows in corporate logos is what people mean when they complain about "woke"?

    I mean, I find it slightly off - as are other efforts at corporate branding. But it's hardly a threat to civilization, and certainly far less annoying (to me) than all the businesses putting out Christmas-themed crap for months before Christmas. Or trying to associate themselves with football when the world cup is on etc etc.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,175

    There's still this: Cultural Astronomy and Astrology at University of Wales, Trinity Saint David.
    Although how long Trinity Saint Davids will be there to offer it is a different question!
    Cultural Astronomy and Astrology (MA) is a unique course that deals with the ways in which human beings attribute meaning to the planets, stars and sky, and construct cosmologies that provide the basis for culture and society.
    https://www.uwtsd.ac.uk/ma-cultural-astronomy-astrology/

    The good news is you can take the course online from a different bar every night, gathering data from local sooths for your MA thesis.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,227

    Tomorrow's Daily Mail SHOCK EXPOSE to sink socialist Sunak?
    He's holed below the water line, the most qualified candidate for the job too - but no chance with the members I think :(
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,641
    Is Penny going to use homeopathy to sort out CPI? 👿😈
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    Leon said:

    No I don’t. These predictions are now in the more-reliable time frame. Less than 7 days

    Is it likely? No. It is possible? Unfortunately yes
    Is it likely? No. It is possible? No.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,563
    Carnyx said:

    Hmm, seems to be a historical and sociological course - Stonehenge orientations, the culture of brownricer crystal fans at Glastonbury/Totnes, etc., rather than a DIY one. But I imagine knowing how to cast a horoscope is pretty necessary, so I wonder what the mix of students is like!
    My thoughts exactly! And given it is conducted up in the Welsh mountains……
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939
    MattW said:

    I think the homeopathy stuff is vanishingly small in importance, and will just be used as mud.

    It's well over a decade ago, so I'd suggest all it will need is a clarification.

    I'm more inclined to concern about her ability to run an administration - as for other candidates - and I wonder if, in the style of Boris, the next administration will need a majordomo.
    Had to Google majordomo.
    I thought it was to do with the S+M rumours.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,240
    Leon said:

    If this verifies, and it is getting closer, this will dominate the news for days. Incredible stuff

    These are lethal temperatures and many will die


    Quite a scorcher in my part of the world. Wards and outpatients are going to be very uncomfortable.

    I have picked a good week for my week off though. Delightful on the Isle of Wight, though sitting in the shade needed midday.

  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,454

    Redwall poll:

    Lab 46% (nc)
    Con 32% (-3)
    LD 10% (+2)
    Ref 7% (+4)
    Grn 4% (+1)
    PC 0 (-1)
    oth 1% (-1)

    (Redfield & Wilton Strategies; 11 July; 1,500; +/- change from 26-27 June)

    (Redfield & Wilton Strategies publishes polls of 37 constituencies won by the Conservatives in 2019 that had been held by Labour in 2010, 2015 and 2017; as well as Burnley, Redcar and Vale of Clwyd.)

    UK GE 2019 result in these seats:
    Con 46.7%
    Lab 38.0%
    Ref 6.5%
    LD 4.5%
    Grn 1.4%
    PC 1.2%
    oth 1.7%

    Not looking good. I can't see much on the table to get these Labour turned Tory turned Labour to go Tory again.
  • But really a homeopathic remedy (or something else you invent) is the only way to administer a placebo successfully. And we know placebos work, and in some cases are probably less harmful than a drug. So why ban their use, and reduce the options for doctors still further?

    Reminds me of this very funny clip:
    https://youtu.be/ntWO7jnOcWE
    I've had a few arguments with zealous users of homeopathic remedies (and the zeal is religious). When I describe to them the process of making such remedies, and point out that there is no active ingredient in the pills, so they are nothing more than a placebo, they always angrily reply

    "But the placebo effect is really powerful"

    At that point I realise I've both won AND lost the argument
  • Paul Erickson, the Australian Labor Party's National Secretary, led a virtual briefing with UK shadow ministers on how his party won Australia's general election in May.

    Erickson explained how Albanese focused on the economy, and refused to get caught up in "culture war" debates, in order to defeat Morrison's conservative coalition.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,735
    Sandpit said:

    So, which of the remaining candidates is going to take the risk of a proper interview over the weekend? An Andrew Neil, Stephen Sackur, or even an Emma Barnett.

    It would be good to hear them talk to the general audience, rather than exclusively to their fellow Tory MPs - and most of them have one or two difficult questions that need to be asked.

    Anyone heading for Andrew Neil is going to end up destroying their attempt. Bozo's best idea of the 2019 was to avoid that interview at all costs.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,108
    dixiedean said:

    Jeez. There's a 44°C on the coast there. That heat with our humidity and a sea breeze?
    Come to Northumberland. There's a 23 over us.
    Going on a half day boat trip tomorrow in the Firth of Forth - 20 degrees, almost flat calm, fairly cloudy. Where's this heatwave you're all getting worked up about?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Gender critical not fans of Mordaunt:

    A Penny Mordaunt led Conservative party would be a gift for Labour. There are many women who will vote Tory for the first time in their lives, some holding their noses, in order to save women's rights from gender identity ideology but they will not vote for Mordaunt.

    https://twitter.com/bluskyeallison/status/1547511375018221568
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,849
    Endillion said:

    If woke is rampant why haven't we encountered it in work

    I genuinely don't know what to make of this comment. Every single moderately large company has a social media team who pump out a near continuous stream of vacuous virtue-signalling nonsense on equality, diversity, inclusion etc for every minority group under the sun. It's particularly prevalent in June, when they all change their corporate logos to include rainbows for Pride month. LinkedIn becomes even more unreadable than usual because of the weight of posts on the subject. I absolutely do not understand how anyone could be in the workforce and not have noticed this, somewhere.
    If that is the sum total of the WOKE DANGER then who cares? It is a largely pointless exercise in virtue signalling. So a company decides to participate in Pride - where is the threat?

    Lets be entirely honest about this - these companies virtue signal a lot of things. Its not that they are asleep for most of the year and only do Pride. So "EUGH THEY'VE CHANGED THEIR LOGO STOP IT" is only attacking the LGBT cause because we don't here anything in protest when they support women or BAME or the environment etc.

    Repression of us sexual deviants is still popular apparently. Which is precisely why we need Pride and companies showing their support for it. You guys create the WOKE THREAT you complain of.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    edited July 2022
    Pro_Rata said:

    Odds of breaking that next week, I'd put around 6/4
    Odds of breaking 40: 7/2
    Odds of breaking 43: 30/1
    I'd say evens, 10/1, 100/1.

    43 is so far beyond the previous records - it's not going to happen.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_weather_records#Top_5_hottest_days
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939

    Lol! Not like to to come over all drama-queeny!

    I'd stick to the people who know about these things, rather than going all alarmist:

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcpsvg3nc#?date=2022-07-14

    Heathrow is a good bet for the hottest place.

    Some places will get to 38°C. Quite possibly the record of 38.7°C will be broken.

    40°C? I doubt it.

    43°C? NOT. A. CHANCE.
    But it is a chance. Because it's one run of thousands of potential forecasts.
    An outside one, sure. But this is a betting site.
  • It’s funny how we were happy to stick rainbows on everything and clap for carers. Didn’t hear any complaints about that from the anti woke brigade
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,782

    Is it likely? No. It is possible? No.
    So @Benpointer knows more than the most sophisticated weather models like GFS, ECM etc (which all form the basis of met office forecasts)

    Who needs experts, eh? When we have @Benpointer
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405

    Bloody petulant Europeans. Throwing a strop because they lost Brexit by sending their unwanted hot air over Albion. Invading our air, ignoring our sovereignty.

    Braverman has a plan though! Too many fit and healthy workshy scummers in the north. So put them to work treading up and down on giant bellows pointing south. That way we make working class scummers do a day's work for a change, keep the decent people of the south warm *and* deportthe EU hot air back where it belongs.
    As if the Tory Party leadership contest isn't generating enough hot air already.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    edited July 2022
    sarissa said:

    Going on a half day boat trip tomorrow in the Firth of Forth - 20 degrees, almost flat calm, fairly cloudy. Where's this heatwave you're all getting worked up about?
    I’m spectacularly fed up with the weather being 19 degrees and humid. It’s like being in a shower room all the time. That said, better that than 45 degrees.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Leon said:

    PB lefties are criminally fucking stupid. It’s the only explanation. For everything

    What’s wrong with you this morning? Go for a swim in the sunshine FFS.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    eek said:

    Anyone heading for Andrew Neil is going to end up destroying their attempt. Bozo's best idea of the 2019 was to avoid that interview at all costs.
    Of course there’s a risk, but there’s also a reward - especially for the less well-known candidates.

    I’m not a member, but if I was I’d give a serious look at anyone prepared to sit with Neil for half an hour.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    edited July 2022
    Leon said:

    So @Benpointer knows more than the most sophisticated weather models like GFS, ECM etc (which all form the basis of met office forecasts)

    Who needs experts, eh? When we have @Benpointer
    Dear oh dear, if they form the basis of Met Office forecasts why are the Met Office forcecasting a UK maximum of 38°C?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405

    It’s funny how we were happy to stick rainbows on everything and clap for carers. Didn’t hear any complaints about that from the anti woke brigade

    They were the right kind of rainbows.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,240
    MattW said:

    I think the homeopathy stuff is vanishingly small in importance, and will just be used as mud.

    It's well over a decade ago, so I'd suggest all it will need is a clarification.

    I'm more inclined to concern about her ability to run an administration - as for other candidates - and I wonder if, in the style of Boris, the next administration will need a majordomo.
    At least supporting homeopathy (is there any evidence that she does apart from the 2010 EDM?) will give her a talking point with the new King!

  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,815
    Leon said:

    On the other hand, Tivqt airport is adorable

    ...if alarmingly lacking in vowels.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,735

    Paul Erickson, the Australian Labor Party's National Secretary, led a virtual briefing with UK shadow ministers on how his party won Australia's general election in May.

    Erickson explained how Albanese focused on the economy, and refused to get caught up in "culture war" debates, in order to defeat Morrison's conservative coalition.

    +1 - get stock answers to the questions you need to answer and then return the interview back to the cost of living crisis.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    dixiedean said:

    But it is a chance. Because it's one run of thousands of potential forecasts.
    An outside one, sure. But this is a betting site.
    Fair point. I'd rate it as 100/1 at best.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,175

    What’s the right thing to have for dinner if it’s +30 for days in a row? 😓
    Fish and chips. Queues might be shorter than usual.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,240

    What’s the right thing to have for dinner if it’s +30 for days in a row? 😓
    Gazpacho.

  • eekeek Posts: 29,735
    Sandpit said:

    Of course there’s a risk, but there’s also a reward - especially for the less well-known candidates.

    I’m not a member, but if I was I’d give a serious look at anyone prepared to sit with Neil for half an hour.
    Problem is this isn't the 1980s with Robin Day doing in-depth interviews. You could answer 27 Andrew Neil questions perfectly but if you screw 1 up - that 1 inaccurate answer will be all over social media in seconds and amplified for days..
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Regarding @MrEd etc’s views that Penny’s wokeism will revolt the membership, there was a poll earlier in the week that showed this to be likely untrue. That it revolts ageing rightwing Trumptons on PB is another matter entirely.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,787
    Leon said:

    So @Benpointer knows more than the most sophisticated weather models like GFS, ECM etc (which all form the basis of met office forecasts)

    Who needs experts, eh? When we have @Benpointer
    I accurately predict that if anyone is going to be a harbinger of doom it will be @Leon

    By the way @Leon, @Benpointer does not need to be an expert to know that weather forecasting is generally accurate to 48 hours max in UK, though this becomes easier in periods of dominant high pressure. I can also say with 100% accuracy that you are not a scientist.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589

    Dear oh dear, if they form the basis of Met Office forecasts why are the Met Office forcecasting a UK maximum of 38°C?
    From the met office teams interviewed about it, 40+ is the outer edge of the confidence interval, with 38 being the central estimate. That’s still alarming, and the forecaster pointed out that they’ve never had 40 degrees plus in their CI before.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,491
    edited July 2022
    eek said:

    Problem is this isn't the 1980s with Robin Day doing in-depth interviews. You could answer 27 Andrew Neil questions perfectly but if you screw 1 up - that 1 inaccurate answer will be all over social media in seconds and amplified for days..
    Even worse it is clipped such that it is taken out of context and then spread.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    edited July 2022

    If that is the sum total of the WOKE DANGER then who cares? It is a largely pointless exercise in virtue signalling. So a company decides to participate in Pride - where is the threat?

    Lets be entirely honest about this - these companies virtue signal a lot of things. Its not that they are asleep for most of the year and only do Pride. So "EUGH THEY'VE CHANGED THEIR LOGO STOP IT" is only attacking the LGBT cause because we don't here anything in protest when they support women or BAME or the environment etc.

    Repression of us sexual deviants is still popular apparently. Which is precisely why we need Pride and companies showing their support for it. You guys create the WOKE THREAT you complain of.
    No, that's just the tip of the iceberg. My point was specifically that I can't understand how anyone hasn't noticed it, because of the lengths companies go to to make it as visible as possible - the reason being that they don't actually care about any of it, they just really don't want to be on the end of a Twitter dogpile because they aren't participating.

    Edit: and I singled out Pride month because it just happened (so the poster would be more likely to remember seeing signs of it) - not because it's any "better"/"worse" than other forms of virtue signalling.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    It’s funny how we were happy to stick rainbows on everything and clap for carers. Didn’t hear any complaints about that from the anti woke brigade

    I don't see that that was a woke/not woke issue. it was certainly nauseatingly embarrassing.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,029
    Scott_xP said:

    The more I see of Truss the more extraordinary I find it that she is considered a “big beast” in today’s Tory Party. But maybe that says less about her and more about today’s Tory Party. https://twitter.com/bestforbritain/status/1547516032323043328

    I have just come back from town and seen her for the first time in this campaign and she was terrible and uninspiring
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    Dear oh dear, if they form the basis of Met Office forecasts why are the Met Office forcecasting a UK maximum of 38°C?
    Indeed. Because single model runs /
    permutations are NOT forecasts. They are raw
    output from a computer of which there will be dozens more before Tuesday!

    As Leon knows.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,787
    Leon said:

    PB lefties are criminally fucking stupid. It’s the only explanation. For everything

    Yea, but you believe in Brexit old chap 🤣🤣🤣🤣. You sure I can't sell you a bridge?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,675
    Leon said:

    If this verifies, and it is getting closer, this will dominate the news for days. Incredible stuff

    These are lethal temperatures and many will die


    Why is this so different from the actual 2-week forecasts (which suggest max 34 degrees)?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309
    Personally, I reckon Truss is done. I don't think she's transfer friendly. Today probably something like..

    Sunak: 96
    Mordaunt: 79
    Truss: 54
    Badenoch: 51
    Tugendhat: 43
    Braverman: 34

    Braverman goes out.

    I'd say there's a 35-40% chance that Badenoch overtakes Truss in this round. If she doesn't, then I'd expect her to do so in the next round because Braverman votes will go disproportionately to Kemi.

    Steve Baker will back her over Truss, for example, and Truss might even stall or shed votes.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405
    Stocky said:

    My daughters have both gone state, private, state and have experience of six schools between them. I've noticed a few times that they come our with some outlandish stuff which I gently challenge by engaging them with facts and logic - and on enquiry the bullshit they are sometimes fed comes via social media not their schools as far as I can tell. Maybe I'm being naive.
    Kids get most of their news and political philosophy from Tiktok. The schools are a moderating influence and seem to encourage kids to think critically about what they encounter on social media. My primary age daughter watches Newsround at school and learns a lot from it. Since she doesn't have a phone she is by far the best informed of our three children.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,240

    What’s the right thing to have for dinner if it’s +30 for days in a row? 😓
    Gazpacho.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309

    It’s funny how we were happy to stick rainbows on everything and clap for carers. Didn’t hear any complaints about that from the anti woke brigade

    Actually, I did. I didn't mind one clap but then as @Dura_Ace said (who I rarely agree with) it all became a bit Juche. I have also criticised OTT poppy fascism.

    Woke is a function of disproportionately and dogma, not absolutes.

    We should be good at that in this country. We are not Americans.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    edited July 2022
    MaxPB said:

    I'm not entirely convinced by Penny, on the one hand she's clearly switched on and a relatively good communicator. However, I don't know what she stands for, definitely feels like a blank sheet of paper onto which the great and powerful in the party are projecting their own image of what they want the next leader to be.

    The reason I'm in favour of Kemi is because we have got one chance to beat Starmer in 2024 and it's going to need someone who actually stands for something and gives people something to vote in favour of to actually win. Penny doesn't do that, she's going to present the voters with that blank sheet of paper and try to win on a battle personalities, but at the same time as being in recession, being the Tory party which is now a big net drag after Boris and against Starmer who has got enough name recognition at this point to make a go of it and come out on top.

    Penny, to me, seems like the "manager decline" choice for that Tories, admitting that we've got no policies or nothing positive to deliver to the nation. Kemi comes in with ideas that can turn into serious policies and give voters something vote in favour of.

    It's definitely a riskier strategy but ultimately the Tory party needs to stand for something other than pretending to be second coming of Mrs Thatcher as Liz and Penny are attempting to project.

    I don't know what Kemi's personality is like at all or if she has any real charisma but for me the fact that she's got ideas is winning. None of the other candidates seem to know what they want to do with the job other than occupy No. 10 for just under two years before being booted out by a Labour/SNP/LD coalition. It will be Boris but a bit more competent, or at least fewer scandals. The MPs must get Kemi onto the members ballot so she can get out there on the national stage and pitch her policy based vision against the bland managed declinism coming from whoever the other candidate is.

    I think if she gets that chance it will be Dave vs Davis again, the favourite will find themselves pitching a nothing platform against a positive vision of the nation backed by ideas that make sense to ordinary people and she'll take the win.

    Kemi or Penny would be fine for me.

    I get the impression Kemi would be quite radical in government and so I suspect she'd do better launching her leadership from Opposition to a Labour government but I could be completely wrong about that.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,175

    As Liz Truss stops speaking:-

    1.89 Penny Mordaunt 53%
    4.5 Rishi Sunak 22%
    5.2 Liz Truss 19%
    22 Kemi Badenoch 5%
    70 Tom Tugendhat
    240 Dominic Raab
    300 Suella Braverman
    No rush of money for Liz Truss after her "launch" event.

    1.89 Penny Mordaunt 53%
    4.3 Rishi Sunak 23%
    5.5 Liz Truss 18%
    21 Kemi Badenoch 5%
    70 Tom Tugendhat
    240 Dominic Raab
    300 Suella Braverman
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,227
    Surely Tugendhat drops out if Braverman goes. Can't see many transfers from her to him.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,509
    Endillion said:

    If woke is rampant why haven't we encountered it in work

    I genuinely don't know what to make of this comment. Every single moderately large company has a social media team who pump out a near continuous stream of vacuous virtue-signalling nonsense on equality, diversity, inclusion etc for every minority group under the sun. It's particularly prevalent in June, when they all change their corporate logos to include rainbows for Pride month. LinkedIn becomes even more unreadable than usual because of the weight of posts on the subject. I absolutely do not understand how anyone could be in the workforce and not have noticed this, somewhere.
    I didn't say it @Leon did and I agree with you. I was quoting him.

    His statements were contradictory. He states it is rampant, but then states all of us who don't believe it is a problem generally haven't encountered it. I pointed out that we have encountered it (as you have pointed out) and for most of us it is mildly annoying and we move on. There will be times when this is not true and it causes real issues, as has always been the case with political correctness.

    It really annoys me, but I don't rant on and on about it day after day.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,361

    Kids get most of their news and political philosophy from Tiktok. The schools are a moderating influence and seem to encourage kids to think critically about what they encounter on social media. My primary age daughter watches Newsround at school and learns a lot from it. Since she doesn't have a phone she is by far the best informed of our three children.
    My son watches Newsround a few days a week in class. He often comes home with little snippets he has learnt from it, asking questions etc. Last night it was: "Can I stay up to see the Buck moon?" I'd no idea there was one...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939

    Why is this so different from the actual 2-week forecasts (which suggest max 34 degrees)?
    Because it's the most extreme result from thousands of runs.
    The actual forecast is an average of them.
    I don't get what is so confusing about this.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,240
    edited July 2022

    I thought clapping for carers was fucking stupid. I refused.
    I found it rather embarrassing and didn't participate. The free goodies donated at work were nice though, particularly the handcreams. All that alcohol rub destroys skin.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161

    Is it likely? No. It is possible? No.
    It's certainly possible. The heatwave over Canada last year broke existing records by a stupendous margin. The Met Office regard an observed temperature within 2C of the forecast temperature at T+24 to be a successful forecast, so there's considerable forecast uncertainty.

    Though the GFS model is only the third best model, after ECMWF and the Met Office, and all centres run large ensembles now, so it's possible to find an outlier. I haven't been able to find an ECMWF EPS meteogram that shows the ensemble spread with a temperature above 40C though, so I'd currently say it's pretty unlikely. But it will happen eventually the way things are going, and it could be this time.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,491
    edited July 2022
    St Andrews really is just too easy for the modern pros now. 3 woods off the tee to drive a par 4 by even those who aren't in the worlds best.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,735
    MaxPB said:

    I'm not entirely convinced by Penny, on the one hand she's clearly switched on and a relatively good communicator. However, I don't know what she stands for, definitely feels like a blank sheet of paper onto which the great and powerful in the party are projecting their own image of what they want the next leader to be.

    The reason I'm in favour of Kemi is because we have got one chance to beat Starmer in 2024 and it's going to need someone who actually stands for something and gives people something to vote in favour of to actually win. Penny doesn't do that, she's going to present the voters with that blank sheet of paper and try to win on a battle personalities, but at the same time as being in recession, being the Tory party which is now a big net drag after Boris and against Starmer who has got enough name recognition at this point to make a go of it and come out on top.

    Penny, to me, seems like the "manager decline" choice for that Tories, admitting that we've got no policies or nothing positive to deliver to the nation. Kemi comes in with ideas that can turn into serious policies and give voters something vote in favour of.

    It's definitely a riskier strategy but ultimately the Tory party needs to stand for something other than pretending to be second coming of Mrs Thatcher as Liz and Penny are attempting to project.

    I don't know what Kemi's personality is like at all or if she has any real charisma but for me the fact that she's got ideas is winning. None of the other candidates seem to know what they want to do with the job other than occupy No. 10 for just under two years before being booted out by a Labour/SNP/LD coalition. It will be Boris but a bit more competent, or at least fewer scandals. The MPs must get Kemi onto the members ballot so she can get out there on the national stage and pitch her policy based vision against the bland managed declinism coming from whoever the other candidate is.

    I think if she gets that chance it will be Dave vs Davis again, the favourite will find themselves pitching a nothing platform against a positive vision of the nation backed by ideas that make sense to ordinary people and she'll take the win.

    A positive platform will always win over a nothing or attack platform. See for example Leave vs Remain where Leave promised a brighter future (albeit a pack of unicorn dreams) and Remain offered nothing but more of the same.

    More of the same isn't going to work here even though the typical Tory member is old...
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,787
    Scott_xP said:

    The more I see of Truss the more extraordinary I find it that she is considered a “big beast” in today’s Tory Party. But maybe that says less about her and more about today’s Tory Party. https://twitter.com/bestforbritain/status/1547516032323043328

    Boris Johnson filled his cabinet with pigmies, and I am not just referring to Rishi Sunak.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,302
    Pulpstar said:

    Surely Tugendhat drops out if Braverman goes. Can't see many transfers from her to him.

    He seems determined to stay in.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,849
    Endillion said:

    No, that's just the tip of the iceberg. My point was specifically that I can't understand how anyone hasn't noticed it, because of the lengths companies go to to make it as visible as possible - the reason being that they don't actually care about any of it, they just really don't want to be on the end of a Twitter dogpile because they aren't participating.
    To go back a few comments I have kids aged 10 and 14. In two separate schools. And I can't say I have noticed that Woke is "running rampant" in their schools.

    For me - as a Bisexual man who only had the confidence to come out aged 40 - I don't look at companies changing their logos for a rainbow one as anything at all. Pride (happily) has become a mainstream part of our society. As has the push for female equality in pay and conditions, teaching kids about respecting each other and all of the other horrors that make some people shriek in fear.

    I do understand. Societal change always provokes a minority who don't like it. Woke is just the latest threat, as the permissive society or women having the vote or the abolition of slavery was. You dislike the modernisation of the way people treat people with more humanity so it gets labelled - woke.

    And just as Alf Garnett sat in London there ranting about all the things he didn't agree with changing, so Leon sits somewhere abroad doing the same. Different times, different issues to be unhappy about, same psychology.

    Its fine. The woke-worriers will either get on board or they won't. Societal change is happening whether they do or don't.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    I can’t see the Tory membership changing their mind over Mordaunt regardless of her alleged woke friendly attitude .

    Sunak seems to have annoyed sufficient members to have zip chance of winning so effectively it’s game over .
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,333
    Carnyx said:

    I'm reminded of Ruth Davidson, who was elected in large part for not having the very definite policy position (indy for Scons) of her main opponent, Murdo Fraser, as well as for having a certain overall persona. Though Ms Mordaunt doesn't seem to have the experience of fronting things that LAdy Davidson then had as a news presenter, and of which she made great use.
    Sad lack of mounting farm animals thus far, but who knows what they get up to in their spare time.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,849

    I thought clapping for carers was fucking stupid. I refused.
    I did it the first time. Seeing lots of people at their front doors was the most people I had seen in a while. Then realised we all looked like idiots and stopped.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    I was reasonably impressed with Tom Tugemhadt’s R4 interview today. He seemed to have a much better grasp on the complexities of energy, environmental and national security than the others and actually made a case for tax cutting beyond “because it’s Conservative”. HY is right I’m afraid, he might be your best PM you never had.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012

    Betting post: is Rishi heading towards value at 4.4?

    Let’s say he makes the final. Penny has fully five weeks in front of the TV cameras to implode. That’s not inconceivable- it would be fairly easy to see her coming unstuck on matters of fiscal policy, for example.

    And I write this as one who wants her to win.

    Or is there time for an outbreak of caution and value with the Hat at 50/1?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,175
    Pulpstar said:

    Surely Tugendhat drops out if Braverman goes. Can't see many transfers from her to him.

    Sounds right. The interesting question is whether Braverman backers then switch to Kemi Badenoch or Liz Truss.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,257
    Real examples of broken Britain. Nothing to do with woke, but incompetent, officious, greedy and to be frank, inhuman treatment of our fellow citizens.

    Students being forced out to house tourists - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-62149409
    Disabled person being fined for using disabled bay at her home - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-62157613
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405

    To go back a few comments I have kids aged 10 and 14. In two separate schools. And I can't say I have noticed that Woke is "running rampant" in their schools.

    For me - as a Bisexual man who only had the confidence to come out aged 40 - I don't look at companies changing their logos for a rainbow one as anything at all. Pride (happily) has become a mainstream part of our society. As has the push for female equality in pay and conditions, teaching kids about respecting each other and all of the other horrors that make some people shriek in fear.

    I do understand. Societal change always provokes a minority who don't like it. Woke is just the latest threat, as the permissive society or women having the vote or the abolition of slavery was. You dislike the modernisation of the way people treat people with more humanity so it gets labelled - woke.

    And just as Alf Garnett sat in London there ranting about all the things he didn't agree with changing, so Leon sits somewhere abroad doing the same. Different times, different issues to be unhappy about, same psychology.

    Its fine. The woke-worriers will either get on board or they won't. Societal change is happening whether they do or don't.
    Come mothers and fathers
    Throughout the land
    And don't criticize
    What you can't understand
    Your sons and your daughters
    Are beyond your command
    Your old road is rapidly agin'
    Please get out of the new one
    If you can't lend your hand
    For the times they are a-changin'
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,509
    Endillion said:

    No, that's just the tip of the iceberg. My point was specifically that I can't understand how anyone hasn't noticed it, because of the lengths companies go to to make it as visible as possible - the reason being that they don't actually care about any of it, they just really don't want to be on the end of a Twitter dogpile because they aren't participating.

    Edit: and I singled out Pride month because it just happened (so the poster would be more likely to remember seeing signs of it) - not because it's any "better"/"worse" than other forms of virtue signalling.
    You need to take that up with @leon. He was the one who said it. He rather shot down his own argument.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,735
    edited July 2022

    I did it the first time. Seeing lots of people at their front doors was the most people I had seen in a while. Then realised we all looked like idiots and stopped.
    We did it for a while but only because it allowed us to have the same sort of meet all the neighbours chats we get when there is a car accident on our street (about once a year)

    No we don't deliberately create them but there is a crossroads where priority isn't clear if you don't know it...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867

    Actually, I did. I didn't mind one clap but then as @Dura_Ace said (who I rarely agree with) it all became a bit Juche. I have also criticised OTT poppy fascism.

    Woke is a function of disproportionately and dogma, not absolutes.

    We should be good at that in this country. We are not Americans.
    A Kemi/Penny showdown in the final two is possible then?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,240
    nico679 said:

    I can’t see the Tory membership changing their mind over Mordaunt regardless of her alleged woke friendly attitude .

    Sunak seems to have annoyed sufficient members to have zip chance of winning so effectively it’s game over .

    I don't get the hate for PM. She is a bit old school Tory. Brexit before it was fashionable, pro-military, patriotic, pro-business and free markets and pragmatic rather than doctrinaire on social issues.
This discussion has been closed.