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The papers are in no doubt about the Tory winner – politicalbetting.com

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  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,754
    LOL Betfair has rearranged the names on its next PM market so Penny Mordaunt is now at the top, as favourite.

    But the first names after the current six + Raab as possible caretaker are, in order:
    Jeremy Corbyn
    Jo Swinson
    Keir Starmer
    Rebecca Long-Bailey.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,389
    kjh said:

    Cookie said:

    kjh said:

    @Cookie thanks to your reply yesterday re my woke question. Apologies for not acknowledging at the time. Interesting you were the only reply and you aren't typical of someone who is likely to bang on about this topic. I also noted you posted about your experience of your daughter's before so your experience is particularly interesting. My children are now several years out of school so I might be out of touch but we had no experience of this. Would love to hear from other parents. What does the school say when challenged?

    To be clear, this is based on my shock from visiting schools we're considering for our daughter's senior school - she's still only 10. But it's universal: private and state, selective and non-selective. Which is odd, because the primary schools my daughters have been to are not perceptibly more woke than the state primary school I attended 30 years ago. I think it would be quite hard to challenge the school on this. It's easy to criticise the excesses of woke anonymously on an internet forum; much more risky in real life to a school which your children have to attend. You hear stories of quite hostile pushback to that sort of thing, and the last thing a parent wants to do is make life more difficult for their children.
    Cheers. I remember you saying this before so I wasn't surprised by your reply. Rather worrying.
    On the subject of primary schools (can't comment on secondary schools) I was worried about the woke thing in 2019 and sent my son to a suburban school, rather than one in the fashionable gentrifying area that I live in. This is because I could see trouble ahead with the type of parents I could see at the open days, IE the 'extinction rebellion' types.
    My son's school has little or no sign of anything woke or anything to do with CRT. There is no sign of any change to traditional gender orthodoxies, ie boys are boys and girls are girls. The parents for the most part seem to work in supermarkets or are builders. My calculation was perhaps this revolution will just pass us by and there will be eventually be some kind of positive reformation of the old order.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,610
    RH1992 said:

    dixiedean said:

    I didn't realise she was from Leeds.
    I will have a punt that part of her unnatural cadence comes from concealing any trace of Yorkshire in her voice.

    One of my friends went to the University of Leeds in the last few years and was taught by her father, he's a very left wing Maths professor and despises the Tories.

    Liz also managed to piss off the city council last night.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jul/13/liz-truss-criticised-for-saying-her-leeds-school-let-down-children
    Xmas dinner must be a bit frosty at their house.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,474
    Nigelb said:

    This is exactly the sort of western military forklift is what wins artillery heavy wars...

    ...& no one in Western military intelligence noticed that Russia has practiced "unilateral forklift disarmament" for 80 years, until Ukraine war tweets rubbed that fact in their faces🤦‍♂️👇


    https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1547443237518016514

    One of the amusing things about this is seeing 'experts' referring to telehandlers as 'forklifts'. they're very different, and the vehicle shown is most definitely a telehandler.

    Experts, eh? ;)
    Otherwise known as reach forklift.
    The example shown is very much a forklift - just a subset of the general category.
    Not really: and the difference between forklift and telehandler are really important on sites. And the military would probably want telehandlers in most circumstances given their greater flexibility.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,677

    Oh god she’s pausing for applause and none is coming.

    Truss sounds as if she has not rehearsed or even seen the speech before, and that it has been badly formatted on the autocue so that she pauses in all the wrong places.
    I think pausing in all the wrong places is just a standard Truss trait.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846
    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    kjh said:

    @Cookie thanks to your reply yesterday re my woke question. Apologies for not acknowledging at the time. Interesting you were the only reply and you aren't typical of someone who is likely to bang on about this topic. I also noted you posted about your experience of your daughter's before so your experience is particularly interesting. My children are now several years out of school so I might be out of touch but we had no experience of this. Would love to hear from other parents. What does the school say when challenged?

    To be clear, this is based on my shock from visiting schools we're considering for our daughter's senior school - she's still only 10. But it's universal: private and state, selective and non-selective. Which is odd, because the primary schools my daughters have been to are not perceptibly more woke than the state primary school I attended 30 years ago. I think it would be quite hard to challenge the school on this. It's easy to criticise the excesses of woke anonymously on an internet forum; much more risky in real life to a school which your children have to attend. You hear stories of quite hostile pushback to that sort of thing, and the last thing a parent wants to do is make life more difficult for their children.
    Society can be divided into two types of people

    Those who do not believe Woke is a problem = those who have not yet encountered it in work or life

    Those who realise Woke is a problem = those who have now encountered it. Parents of kids age 10-15 are a classic case, because they can suddenly see it running rampant in schools
    If woke is rampant why haven't we encountered it in work or life then like you say? Your statement doesn't make sense therefore does it? Maybe we have encountered it and in most cases find it irritating but irrelevant. As I said yesterday we just think pillocks and move on.

    Note I asked you a question about this yesterday and you didn't reply. Only @cookie did and I find his reply disturbing. You keep banging on about it but don't say how it affects your life.
    It doesn't affect him in the slightest, since he's just tilting at windmills, and continuing to prove that travel doesn't always broaden the mind...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,401

    Poor Liz really is a bad public speaker.

    IIRC so was Thatcher until, after her election as leader, she took elocution lessons.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,446

    Liz drifting upwrds

    Has she died? 😦
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,336

    eek said:

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1547505264076722178

    I told you all, it’s CoL. And the Tories are going to go the same way as Australia otherwise.

    Key takeaways from this (mainly Conservative inclined group)

    -terror/fury about economy, about winter to come.
    -short shrift for ‘culture war’ issues in that context: “what’s that got to do with me?” Sole focus cost of living
    -desperate to hear about policies to deal with it.

    The Tory Party is completely out of touch, this feels very much like pre 2005 Howard vibes

    It's an interesting read - especially the multiple comments regarding Sunak - none of Westminster had a clue about how bad things were on cost of living but he was most out of touch of all. Non-dom issue regarding his wife came up as well.

    If anyone is reading this - the only tax cut that makes sense at the moment is Fuel Duty - if you cut Corporation Tax that isn't going to help people fill their car as they drive to work in November
    What is staggering is why Labour has not already announced they will cut full duty
    Maybe because Labour isn't in power at the moment?
    Who knows how things will look if/when Labour is in power.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,493

    My take, for what it's worth, is that it looks to be two of Penny Mordaunt, Rishi Sunak, and Kemi Badenoch to be put to the members.

    And there could be attempted silly buggers by any candidate with the most MPs behind them (realistically Sunak, but may be one of the others depending on how things unfold over the next few rounds) to try to "select" the opponent. Which could blow up as ironically as it did with Portillo in 2001.

    Mordaunt appears to be in pole position with the members, but taking pole doesn't guarantee a win. A bad first lap, or a blown engine (such as Andrea Leadsom in 2016) could see it all change. The danger with someone who's little known is that they can damage the image projected upon them.

    I also think that the field looks poor. I would say this, I suppose, but they all strike me as lightweights or near-unknowns who have never been properly tested, and they're about to become Prime Minister during huge turmoil (cost of living crisis, post-covid with an endemic disease, Ukraine, Brexit still a running sore).

    Whilst I get that Mordaunt and Badenoch are gambles, I reckon one of them will win - and will end up heavily disappointing. (How Badenoch could not disappoint at least some of those who back her when that ranges from Neil O'Brien to Toby Young looks impossible).

    Which means there could be another leadership contest before the next election.

    Mostly agree, but there is a slight risk that Truss makes it against Rishi, and that would be highly sub-optimal.

    Even if it is imperfect, and the best chance (Hunt) has been ludicrously blown, the only chance now is someone not bigly tainted by the recent past. That excludes Braverman, Truss and Rishi. Leaving Mordaunt, Kemi and Hat as the only possible people, should a fit of common sense, moral compass and sanity break out.

    However that takes no account of the madness of crowds, media, MPs and members.

    PS Of those remaining on the moral compass grounds, Kemi and Hat look as if they may possibly, with luck and a fair wind, have heavyweight potential. Mordaunt not.

  • Truss has basically all but guaranteed PM Penny
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,807
    Well that was turgid.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,474
    So is Penny Mordaunt related to Terence Mordaunt?

    And if she is, does it matter?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,677

    Mordaunt needs to clear up this homeopathy thing if there's any chance I could support her. I mentioned last night that the EDM she signed on it was on the same day that she tabled her very first EDM, so she may have signed it as a quid pro quo to get others to sign hers (half that signed hers also signed the homeopathy EDM). But I need to know that she knows that the magic pills have no more effect than non-magic placebos.

    I was rather amused to see what David Tredinnick, who tabled the homeopathy EDM, also believes, including,
    "Tredinnick is a supporter of astrology and its use in medical practice"
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Tredinnick_(politician)

    Hunt had form there, too, of course. Although I believe he subsequently recanted.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    Leon said:

    JACK_W said:

    Watching the Daily Mail realise they've backed the wrong horse in Liz Truss and pivot to adoration of PM4PM will be a delight and hilarious in equal measure.

    Yes

    Why are they so anti-Mordaunt? She’s a tiny bit Woke but not enough to produce this bile

    I think it’s snobbery, pure and simple. She’s from a working class background, went to Reading, etc. Fuck the Mail
    75% of the Mail’s output seems to be raging against wokeness surely (just like “political correctness gone mad” before it). If Penny really is ‘woke’ or at least has a reputation for being so (I remain to be instructed on what she has done that has been so awful and evil) then they will try to rip her to shreds. They will relish it.
    and the remaining 25% is spent fawning over royalty. It's going to be fascinating to see what happens when Queen dies and it dawns on the Mail how woke Charles, William, Kate and Harry are! Somethings gotta give
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,401
    RH1992 said:

    dixiedean said:

    I didn't realise she was from Leeds.
    I will have a punt that part of her unnatural cadence comes from concealing any trace of Yorkshire in her voice.

    One of my friends went to the University of Leeds in the last few years and was taught by her father, he's a very left wing Maths professor and despises the Tories.

    Liz also managed to piss off the city council last night.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jul/13/liz-truss-criticised-for-saying-her-leeds-school-let-down-children
    Given the way Truss has turned out you could probably argue that the school has let down some of it'a pupils
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039
    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    kjh said:

    @Cookie thanks to your reply yesterday re my woke question. Apologies for not acknowledging at the time. Interesting you were the only reply and you aren't typical of someone who is likely to bang on about this topic. I also noted you posted about your experience of your daughter's before so your experience is particularly interesting. My children are now several years out of school so I might be out of touch but we had no experience of this. Would love to hear from other parents. What does the school say when challenged?

    To be clear, this is based on my shock from visiting schools we're considering for our daughter's senior school - she's still only 10. But it's universal: private and state, selective and non-selective. Which is odd, because the primary schools my daughters have been to are not perceptibly more woke than the state primary school I attended 30 years ago. I think it would be quite hard to challenge the school on this. It's easy to criticise the excesses of woke anonymously on an internet forum; much more risky in real life to a school which your children have to attend. You hear stories of quite hostile pushback to that sort of thing, and the last thing a parent wants to do is make life more difficult for their children.
    Society can be divided into two types of people

    Those who do not believe Woke is a problem = those who have not yet encountered it in work or life

    Those who realise Woke is a problem = those who have now encountered it. Parents of kids age 10-15 are a classic case, because they can suddenly see it running rampant in schools
    If woke is rampant why haven't we encountered it in work or life then like you say? Your statement doesn't make sense therefore does it? Maybe we have encountered it and in most cases find it irritating but irrelevant. As I said yesterday we just think pillocks and move on.

    Note I asked you a question about this yesterday and you didn't reply. Only @cookie did and I find his reply disturbing. You keep banging on about it but don't say how it affects your life.
    I’ve seen it as a writer for the Knappers Gazette. It absolutely affects journalism and publishing. Next
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,754

    Poor Liz really is a bad public speaker.

    IIRC so was Thatcher until, after her election as leader, she took elocution lessons.
    It is eminently fixable with easily available training. It never fails to astonish me how bad modern politicians are at simple tradecraft like public speaking and being interviewed.
  • Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    kjh said:

    @Cookie thanks to your reply yesterday re my woke question. Apologies for not acknowledging at the time. Interesting you were the only reply and you aren't typical of someone who is likely to bang on about this topic. I also noted you posted about your experience of your daughter's before so your experience is particularly interesting. My children are now several years out of school so I might be out of touch but we had no experience of this. Would love to hear from other parents. What does the school say when challenged?

    To be clear, this is based on my shock from visiting schools we're considering for our daughter's senior school - she's still only 10. But it's universal: private and state, selective and non-selective. Which is odd, because the primary schools my daughters have been to are not perceptibly more woke than the state primary school I attended 30 years ago. I think it would be quite hard to challenge the school on this. It's easy to criticise the excesses of woke anonymously on an internet forum; much more risky in real life to a school which your children have to attend. You hear stories of quite hostile pushback to that sort of thing, and the last thing a parent wants to do is make life more difficult for their children.
    Society can be divided into two types of people

    Those who do not believe Woke is a problem = those who have not yet encountered it in work or life

    Those who realise Woke is a problem = those who have now encountered it. Parents of kids age 10-15 are a classic case, because they can suddenly see it running rampant in schools
    If woke is rampant why haven't we encountered it in work or life then like you say? Your statement doesn't make sense therefore does it? Maybe we have encountered it and in most cases find it irritating but irrelevant. As I said yesterday we just think pillocks and move on.

    Note I asked you a question about this yesterday and you didn't reply. Only @cookie did and I find his reply disturbing. You keep banging on about it but don't say how it affects your life.
    I’ve seen it as a writer for the Knappers Gazette. It absolutely affects journalism and publishing. Next
    We’re talking about real publications Leon
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039
    edited July 2022
    If this verifies, and it is getting closer, this will dominate the news for days. Incredible stuff

    These are lethal temperatures and many will die


  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846

    My take, for what it's worth, is that it looks to be two of Penny Mordaunt, Rishi Sunak, and Kemi Badenoch to be put to the members.

    And there could be attempted silly buggers by any candidate with the most MPs behind them (realistically Sunak, but may be one of the others depending on how things unfold over the next few rounds) to try to "select" the opponent. Which could blow up as ironically as it did with Portillo in 2001.

    Mordaunt appears to be in pole position with the members, but taking pole doesn't guarantee a win. A bad first lap, or a blown engine (such as Andrea Leadsom in 2016) could see it all change. The danger with someone who's little known is that they can damage the image projected upon them.

    I also think that the field looks poor. I would say this, I suppose, but they all strike me as lightweights or near-unknowns who have never been properly tested, and they're about to become Prime Minister during huge turmoil (cost of living crisis, post-covid with an endemic disease, Ukraine, Brexit still a running sore).

    Whilst I get that Mordaunt and Badenoch are gambles, I reckon one of them will win - and will end up heavily disappointing. (How Badenoch could not disappoint at least some of those who back her when that ranges from Neil O'Brien to Toby Young looks impossible).

    Which means there could be another leadership contest before the next election.

    I've had a few £ on Rishi not making the final two; since another disappointing vote this evening and those odds should come in considerably.

    Given the clouds on every horizon, it is almost baked in that whoever is elected won't be able to deliver on the hopes and expectations they were forced to raise in order to win the job.

    Being disappointing merely in performance terms won't lead to another leadership election, since against Starmer it simply levels the playing field. And the Tories don't have any obvious alternative successors lurking outside this field, at least so long as they stay in government.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,386

    So is Penny Mordaunt related to Terence Mordaunt?

    And if she is, does it matter?

    She's related to ex-Labour Chancellor Snowden and Angela Lansbury if that's any help?
    I have perused her wiki page, yes.
  • Nigelb said:

    This is exactly the sort of western military forklift is what wins artillery heavy wars...

    ...& no one in Western military intelligence noticed that Russia has practiced "unilateral forklift disarmament" for 80 years, until Ukraine war tweets rubbed that fact in their faces🤦‍♂️👇


    https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1547443237518016514

    One of the amusing things about this is seeing 'experts' referring to telehandlers as 'forklifts'. they're very different, and the vehicle shown is most definitely a telehandler.

    Experts, eh? ;)
    Otherwise known as reach forklift.
    The example shown is very much a forklift - just a subset of the general category.
    Not really: and the difference between forklift and telehandler are really important on sites. And the military would probably want telehandlers in most circumstances given their greater flexibility.
    Russia can't even build its own tractors. I wouldn't fancy their chances of making an operable telehandler
  • eekeek Posts: 28,270
    edited July 2022
    Guido Fawkes
    @GuidoFawkes
    Liz restates that she would reverse NII hike and cancel the corporation tax hike on day one. Made possible by slowing repayment of the COVID era debt.

    And how does that solve the real issues people are currently facing - it only helps those who earn £50,000+

    Truss really isn't suitable to be PM if that's her solution to the cost of living crisis.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,807
    Best chance now for the right is if Badenoch leapfrogs Truss and cannibalises her vote.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,346

    Not that I place much store by Lord Frost’s judgment:

    Wow. A devastating assessment of @PennyMordaunt from Lord Frost on @TalkTV just now. He says she simply wasn't up to the job as a minister and had to be moved on. Having worked with her closely he has "grave reservations" about her abilities. Crikey!

    https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1547474927091171329

    Did he say who he was backing? I am very interested in knowing who he's getting behind - he could be influential.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039
    edited July 2022
    43C across central England. Breaking the record by 5 degrees. Like a Bob Beamon jump in climate

    This is - if it happens - our version of the Canadian Heat dome
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,474

    Poor Liz really is a bad public speaker.

    IIRC so was Thatcher until, after her election as leader, she took elocution lessons.
    It is eminently fixable with easily available training. It never fails to astonish me how bad modern politicians are at simple tradecraft like public speaking and being interviewed.
    I'd argue the opposite: politicians are generally very good at public speaking and being interviewed when compared to an average Joe like myself.

    Especially as interviewers often spend lots of time trying to catch out the interviewee.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846
    Selebian said:

    Mordaunt needs to clear up this homeopathy thing if there's any chance I could support her. I mentioned last night that the EDM she signed on it was on the same day that she tabled her very first EDM, so she may have signed it as a quid pro quo to get others to sign hers (half that signed hers also signed the homeopathy EDM). But I need to know that she knows that the magic pills have no more effect than non-magic placebos.

    I was rather amused to see what David Tredinnick, who tabled the homeopathy EDM, also believes, including,
    "Tredinnick is a supporter of astrology and its use in medical practice"
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Tredinnick_(politician)

    Hunt had form there, too, of course. Although I believe he subsequently recanted.
    It was just one comment he made, among millions?
  • Penny must be popping the champagne
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,509

    Liz drifting upwrds

    There was me thinking it was Penny, who was once the magician’s assistant.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,807

    Poor Liz really is a bad public speaker.

    IIRC so was Thatcher until, after her election as leader, she took elocution lessons.
    Believe it or not I think Liz has ALREADY had elocution and public speaking lessons. Compare early speeches (cheese and pork markets for instance) to now and you will see a big change.

    I know it’s incomprehensible, but we are looking at the end result!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,346

    Not that I place much store by Lord Frost’s judgment:

    Wow. A devastating assessment of @PennyMordaunt from Lord Frost on @TalkTV just now. He says she simply wasn't up to the job as a minister and had to be moved on. Having worked with her closely he has "grave reservations" about her abilities. Crikey!

    https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1547474927091171329

    Did he say who he was backing? I am very interested in knowing who he's getting behind - he could be influential.
    Ah, I see it's Truss. Actually it was said here yesterday that Truss would be making a serious attack on PM today, so I suppose this is it. Good person to do it via.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842

    Poor Liz really is a bad public speaker.

    IIRC so was Thatcher until, after her election as leader, she took elocution lessons.
    Thatcher shifted her voice down to give it more power and authority. That isn't the issue with Truss, she just isn't a good speaker and that is a lot, lot harder to fix.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,446
    edited July 2022

    Also Sunak is finished and would be a disaster.

    He wouldn’t be a disaster. His is the only sensible platform for tackling the cost of living.

    Penny and Sunak are the best two in this field. Sunak should have taken over from Boris 12 months ago, it’s been too much fantasy economics from Tory’s for too long. People like Mogg and Nad are clueless about how to run an economy.

    It’s important for the Tories to perform well as possible even if it’s general election defeat, for how they are thought of on the economy and delivering Brexit leaving office is how they will be thought of in opposition and in 5 years years time. They must not write next two years off as not important by acting like an opposition party too soon!
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,734
    dixiedean said:

    So is Penny Mordaunt related to Terence Mordaunt?

    And if she is, does it matter?

    She's related to ex-Labour Chancellor Snowden and Angela Lansbury if that's any help?
    I have perused her wiki page, yes.
    And therefore also Oliver Postgate, I think?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Liz drifting upwrds

    Has she died? 😦
    Dried up.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,386
    edited July 2022
    eek said:

    Guido Fawkes
    @GuidoFawkes
    Liz restates that she would reverse NII hike and cancel the corporation tax hike on day one. Made possible by slowing repayment of the COVID era debt.

    And how does that solve the real issues people are currently facing - it only helps those who earn £50,000+

    Truss really isn't suitable to be PM if that's her solution to the cost of living crisis.

    The cost of living appears to be passing them by.
    There may be a potentially simple explanation for that.
  • I was obviously misguided when I said the candidates would have ideas. None of them do.

    Labour gets ripped apart for this kind of thing and fair enough. But the Tories proposing to be the PM have even less.

    It’s not exactly three words get Brexit done is it?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,346

    Also Sunak is finished and would be a disaster.

    He wouldn’t be a disaster. His is the only sensible platform for tackling the cost of living.

    Penny and Sunak are the best two in this field. Sunak should have taken over from Boris 12 months ago, it’s been too much fantasy economics from Tory’s for too long. People like Mogg and Nad are clueless about how to run an economy.

    It’s important for the Tories to perform well as possible even if it’s general election defeat, for how they are thought of on the economy and delivering Brexit leaving office is how they will be thought of in opposition and in 5 years years time. They must not write next two years off as not important by acting like an opposition party too soon!
    He's been CHANCELLOR. If anyone is responsible for fantasy economics...
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270
    Leon said:

    If this verifies, and it is getting closer, this will dominate the news for days. Incredible stuff

    These are lethal temperatures and many will die


    35c in my area, ugh! Guess it could be worse, 43c sounds absolutely dreadful.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,886
    Leon said:

    43C across central England. Breaking the record by 5 degrees. Like a Bob Beamon jump in climate

    This is - if it happens - our version of the Canadian Heat dome

    Bloody petulant Europeans. Throwing a strop because they lost Brexit by sending their unwanted hot air over Albion. Invading our air, ignoring our sovereignty.

    Braverman has a plan though! Too many fit and healthy workshy scummers in the north. So put them to work treading up and down on giant bellows pointing south. That way we make working class scummers do a day's work for a change, keep the decent people of the south warm *and* deportthe EU hot air back where it belongs.
  • So is Penny Mordaunt related to Terence Mordaunt?

    And if she is, does it matter?

    "Penny Mordaunt has had nothing coming her way in the past year, but Mordaunt's previously received £20,000 from First Corporate Consultants, a firm run by Bristol Port Company owner Terence Mordaunt (no relation)."

    https://www.businessinsider.com/11-tory-leadership-candidates-donors-and-war-chests-analysed-2022-7?r=US&IR=T
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,253
    Leon said:

    If this verifies, and it is getting closer, this will dominate the news for days. Incredible stuff

    These are lethal temperatures and many will die


    I think this is an outlier prediction that’s been cherry picked for headlines. All the prediction services I can find are going for 36 or 37 °C . Which is quite bad enough...
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,754
    IanB2 said:

    My take, for what it's worth, is that it looks to be two of Penny Mordaunt, Rishi Sunak, and Kemi Badenoch to be put to the members.

    And there could be attempted silly buggers by any candidate with the most MPs behind them (realistically Sunak, but may be one of the others depending on how things unfold over the next few rounds) to try to "select" the opponent. Which could blow up as ironically as it did with Portillo in 2001.

    Mordaunt appears to be in pole position with the members, but taking pole doesn't guarantee a win. A bad first lap, or a blown engine (such as Andrea Leadsom in 2016) could see it all change. The danger with someone who's little known is that they can damage the image projected upon them.

    I also think that the field looks poor. I would say this, I suppose, but they all strike me as lightweights or near-unknowns who have never been properly tested, and they're about to become Prime Minister during huge turmoil (cost of living crisis, post-covid with an endemic disease, Ukraine, Brexit still a running sore).

    Whilst I get that Mordaunt and Badenoch are gambles, I reckon one of them will win - and will end up heavily disappointing. (How Badenoch could not disappoint at least some of those who back her when that ranges from Neil O'Brien to Toby Young looks impossible).

    Which means there could be another leadership contest before the next election.

    I've had a few £ on Rishi not making the final two; since another disappointing vote this evening and those odds should come in considerably.

    Given the clouds on every horizon, it is almost baked in that whoever is elected won't be able to deliver on the hopes and expectations they were forced to raise in order to win the job.

    Being disappointing merely in performance terms won't lead to another leadership election, since against Starmer it simply levels the playing field. And the Tories don't have any obvious alternative successors lurking outside this field, at least so long as they stay in government.

    A pedant writes: today's vote is earlier than yesterdays:-

    Tory MPs will begin their second round of voting at 11.30am this morning and have until 1.30pm to cast their ballot.

    The result will then be announced by the chair of the backbench 1922 Committee, Sir Graham Brady, at 3pm.

    https://news.sky.com/story/more-tory-leadership-hopefuls-set-to-be-knocked-out-of-race-today-as-second-voting-round-begins-12651534
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Betting post: is Rishi heading towards value at 4.4?

    Let’s say he makes the final. Penny has fully five weeks in front of the TV cameras to implode. That’s not inconceivable- it would be fairly easy to see her coming unstuck on matters of fiscal policy, for example.

    And I write this as one who wants her to win.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,677
    edited July 2022
    IanB2 said:

    Selebian said:

    Mordaunt needs to clear up this homeopathy thing if there's any chance I could support her. I mentioned last night that the EDM she signed on it was on the same day that she tabled her very first EDM, so she may have signed it as a quid pro quo to get others to sign hers (half that signed hers also signed the homeopathy EDM). But I need to know that she knows that the magic pills have no more effect than non-magic placebos.

    I was rather amused to see what David Tredinnick, who tabled the homeopathy EDM, also believes, including,
    "Tredinnick is a supporter of astrology and its use in medical practice"
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Tredinnick_(politician)

    Hunt had form there, too, of course. Although I believe he subsequently recanted.
    It was just one comment he made, among millions?
    There was the story about the review of homeopathy studies. Though that may have just been done to keep the requestor happy - easier to get some flunkies to assess them than to simply tell the guy he's a nutter and to go away.

    Edit: Or is that whooshing noise I hear a homeopathy joke passing me by? If so, then even if massively diluted in his public statements, it would still be highly effective, no? :wink:
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Also Sunak is finished and would be a disaster.

    He wouldn’t be a disaster. His is the only sensible platform for tackling the cost of living.

    Penny and Sunak are the best two in this field. Sunak should have taken over from Boris 12 months ago, it’s been too much fantasy economics from Tory’s for too long. People like Mogg and Nad are clueless about how to run an economy.

    It’s important for the Tories to perform well as possible even if it’s general election defeat, for how they are thought of on the economy and delivering Brexit leaving office is how they will be thought of in opposition and in 5 years years time. They must not write next two years off as not important by acting like an opposition party too soon!
    Who was running the economy during Rishis spell at the treasury?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,474

    So is Penny Mordaunt related to Terence Mordaunt?

    And if she is, does it matter?

    "Penny Mordaunt has had nothing coming her way in the past year, but Mordaunt's previously received £20,000 from First Corporate Consultants, a firm run by Bristol Port Company owner Terence Mordaunt (no relation)."

    https://www.businessinsider.com/11-tory-leadership-candidates-donors-and-war-chests-analysed-2022-7?r=US&IR=T
    It's just that (allegedly) Terence Mordaunt is a climate-change denier, and they're trying to make a connection between them.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039
    edited July 2022
    Phil said:

    Leon said:

    If this verifies, and it is getting closer, this will dominate the news for days. Incredible stuff

    These are lethal temperatures and many will die


    I think this is an outlier prediction that’s been cherry picked for headlines. All the prediction services I can find are going for 36 or 37 °C . Which is quite bad enough...

    Or you could read the weather websites. Mainstream models are now coughing up these predictikns. A reliable and sober forecaster on one of them just said 40C+ is now a 50% chance
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,089
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,446

    Not that I place much store by Lord Frost’s judgment:

    Wow. A devastating assessment of @PennyMordaunt from Lord Frost on @TalkTV just now. He says she simply wasn't up to the job as a minister and had to be moved on. Having worked with her closely he has "grave reservations" about her abilities. Crikey!

    https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1547474927091171329

    Did he say who he was backing? I am very interested in knowing who he's getting behind - he could be influential.
    Ah, I see it's Truss. Actually it was said here yesterday that Truss would be making a serious attack on PM today, so I suppose this is it. Good person to do it via.
    You kind of feel if Penny gets it the Conservatives will come across as split quite quickly? 😕 the Daily Mail would really have to change its tune quite quickly.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,773
    edited July 2022
    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    kjh said:

    @Cookie thanks to your reply yesterday re my woke question. Apologies for not acknowledging at the time. Interesting you were the only reply and you aren't typical of someone who is likely to bang on about this topic. I also noted you posted about your experience of your daughter's before so your experience is particularly interesting. My children are now several years out of school so I might be out of touch but we had no experience of this. Would love to hear from other parents. What does the school say when challenged?

    To be clear, this is based on my shock from visiting schools we're considering for our daughter's senior school - she's still only 10. But it's universal: private and state, selective and non-selective. Which is odd, because the primary schools my daughters have been to are not perceptibly more woke than the state primary school I attended 30 years ago. I think it would be quite hard to challenge the school on this. It's easy to criticise the excesses of woke anonymously on an internet forum; much more risky in real life to a school which your children have to attend. You hear stories of quite hostile pushback to that sort of thing, and the last thing a parent wants to do is make life more difficult for their children.
    Society can be divided into two types of people

    Those who do not believe Woke is a problem = those who have not yet encountered it in work or life

    Those who realise Woke is a problem = those who have now encountered it. Parents of kids age 10-15 are a classic case, because they can suddenly see it running rampant in schools
    If woke is rampant why haven't we encountered it in work or life then like you say? Your statement doesn't make sense therefore does it? Maybe we have encountered it and in most cases find it irritating but irrelevant. As I said yesterday we just think pillocks and move on.

    Note I asked you a question about this yesterday and you didn't reply. Only @cookie did and I find his reply disturbing. You keep banging on about it but don't say how it affects your life.
    I’ve seen it as a writer for the Knappers Gazette. It absolutely affects journalism and publishing. Next
    How?

    And you didn't deal with the contradiction in your statements i.e. it is rampant but the reason we don't recognise it is because we haven't come across it. Can't both be true.

    We have and we brush it off in most cases as political correct nonsense.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,723
    Selebian said:

    IanB2 said:

    Selebian said:

    Mordaunt needs to clear up this homeopathy thing if there's any chance I could support her. I mentioned last night that the EDM she signed on it was on the same day that she tabled her very first EDM, so she may have signed it as a quid pro quo to get others to sign hers (half that signed hers also signed the homeopathy EDM). But I need to know that she knows that the magic pills have no more effect than non-magic placebos.

    I was rather amused to see what David Tredinnick, who tabled the homeopathy EDM, also believes, including,
    "Tredinnick is a supporter of astrology and its use in medical practice"
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Tredinnick_(politician)

    Hunt had form there, too, of course. Although I believe he subsequently recanted.
    It was just one comment he made, among millions?
    There was the story about the review of homeopathy studies. Though that may have just been done to keep the requestor happy - easier to get some flunkies to assess them than to simply tell the guy he's a nutter and to go away.

    Edit: Or is that whooshing noise I hear a homeopathy joke passing me by? If so, then even if massively diluted in his public statements, it would still be highly effective, no? :wink:
    TBF astrology used to be on the Oxford MD degree syllabus. Admittedly rather a long time ago.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,386
    Leon said:

    If this verifies, and it is getting closer, this will dominate the news for days. Incredible stuff

    These are lethal temperatures and many will die


    Jeez. There's a 44°C on the coast there. That heat with our humidity and a sea breeze?
    Come to Northumberland. There's a 23 over us.
  • Penny doesn’t strike me as somebody who will find it easy to bat away 10 years of Tory policy when she keeps saying that she wants a return to it.

    The problem is that the Red Wall does not. And I don’t think the voters they’ve lost to the Lib Dems do either
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,723
    Selebian said:

    Oh god she’s pausing for applause and none is coming.

    Truss sounds as if she has not rehearsed or even seen the speech before, and that it has been badly formatted on the autocue so that she pauses in all the wrong places.
    I think pausing in all the wrong places is just a standard Truss trait.
    It's to stop the interviewer interrupting, I think.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270

    Betting post: is Rishi heading towards value at 4.4?

    Let’s say he makes the final. Penny has fully five weeks in front of the TV cameras to implode. That’s not inconceivable- it would be fairly easy to see her coming unstuck on matters of fiscal policy, for example.

    And I write this as one who wants her to win.

    Quite possible, there will as you say plenty of opportunities on a big public stage for someone to implode with a dire performance.

    Who knows Sunak could be the one to implode. He strikes me as someone that gets very defensive and doesn't come across well when asked difficult questions with regards to criticism of his record as chancellor or his own financial affairs.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,570
    dixiedean said:

    Does both parents being teachers make you working class?

    It does to people who think that Sunak comes from humble origins!
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,001
    algarkirk said:

    My take, for what it's worth, is that it looks to be two of Penny Mordaunt, Rishi Sunak, and Kemi Badenoch to be put to the members.

    And there could be attempted silly buggers by any candidate with the most MPs behind them (realistically Sunak, but may be one of the others depending on how things unfold over the next few rounds) to try to "select" the opponent. Which could blow up as ironically as it did with Portillo in 2001.

    Mordaunt appears to be in pole position with the members, but taking pole doesn't guarantee a win. A bad first lap, or a blown engine (such as Andrea Leadsom in 2016) could see it all change. The danger with someone who's little known is that they can damage the image projected upon them.

    I also think that the field looks poor. I would say this, I suppose, but they all strike me as lightweights or near-unknowns who have never been properly tested, and they're about to become Prime Minister during huge turmoil (cost of living crisis, post-covid with an endemic disease, Ukraine, Brexit still a running sore).

    Whilst I get that Mordaunt and Badenoch are gambles, I reckon one of them will win - and will end up heavily disappointing. (How Badenoch could not disappoint at least some of those who back her when that ranges from Neil O'Brien to Toby Young looks impossible).

    Which means there could be another leadership contest before the next election.

    Mostly agree, but there is a slight risk that Truss makes it against Rishi, and that would be highly sub-optimal.

    Even if it is imperfect, and the best chance (Hunt) has been ludicrously blown, the only chance now is someone not bigly tainted by the recent past. That excludes Braverman, Truss and Rishi. Leaving Mordaunt, Kemi and Hat as the only possible people, should a fit of common sense, moral compass and sanity break out.

    However that takes no account of the madness of crowds, media, MPs and members.

    PS Of those remaining on the moral compass grounds, Kemi and Hat look as if they may possibly, with luck and a fair wind, have heavyweight potential. Mordaunt not.

    Agree that Truss is the most likely outsider to crash the trio's party, but I think she'll need at least one, if not two of them to implode first.

    Which is not at all impossible, of course.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,650
    IshmaelZ said:

    Also Sunak is finished and would be a disaster.

    He wouldn’t be a disaster. His is the only sensible platform for tackling the cost of living.

    Penny and Sunak are the best two in this field. Sunak should have taken over from Boris 12 months ago, it’s been too much fantasy economics from Tory’s for too long. People like Mogg and Nad are clueless about how to run an economy.

    It’s important for the Tories to perform well as possible even if it’s general election defeat, for how they are thought of on the economy and delivering Brexit leaving office is how they will be thought of in opposition and in 5 years years time. They must not write next two years off as not important by acting like an opposition party too soon!
    Who was running the economy during Rishis spell at the treasury?
    At the start it was Dominic Cummings. Not sure if he was ever replaced.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Mr Leon,

    "These are lethal temperatures and many will die."

    Have you been writing the Daily Express headlines for the last sixty years?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,723

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    No Remainer will ever take office for the next 30 years

    Ahem. Some qualification needed. Scotland and NI. Already.
    And Wales. Drakeford is a Remainer.
    Quite; thanks. I couldn't remember, what with Labour being all over the place even then.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,644
    Leon said:

    If this verifies, and it is getting closer, this will dominate the news for days. Incredible stuff

    These are lethal temperatures and many will die


    Lol! Not like to to come over all drama-queeny!

    I'd stick to the people who know about these things, rather than going all alarmist:

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcpsvg3nc#?date=2022-07-14

    Heathrow is a good bet for the hottest place.

    Some places will get to 38°C. Quite possibly the record of 38.7°C will be broken.

    40°C? I doubt it.

    43°C? NOT. A. CHANCE.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,277
    eek said:

    Guido Fawkes
    @GuidoFawkes
    Liz restates that she would reverse NII hike and cancel the corporation tax hike on day one. Made possible by slowing repayment of the COVID era debt.

    And how does that solve the real issues people are currently facing - it only helps those who earn £50,000+

    Truss really isn't suitable to be PM if that's her solution to the cost of living crisis.

    From a technical point of view, is it possible to slow the repayment of Covid era debt without effectively defaulting?
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270
    Tom Tugendhat sure loves his pregnant pauses/silence between sentences.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,644
    edited July 2022
    CD13 said:

    Mr Leon,

    "These are lethal temperatures and many will die."

    Have you been writing the Daily Express headlines for the last sixty years?

    Don't get him on to Princess Di!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,933

    Liz drifting upwrds

    Has she died? 😦
    Apotheosis, possibly ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,089
    edited July 2022

    Betting post: is Rishi heading towards value at 4.4?

    Let’s say he makes the final. Penny has fully five weeks in front of the TV cameras to implode. That’s not inconceivable- it would be fairly easy to see her coming unstuck on matters of fiscal policy, for example.

    And I write this as one who wants her to win.

    No. This would be true if the polling was say 45 - 55, but Mordaunt's gap is absolubtely whopping. He's losing by 20 pts to Truss too.
    The one conceivable scenario I can see him winning is if Badenoch somehow gets to the final 2 as she REALLY is an unknown quantity.
    But 20s is longer than 3-1, so just back Badenoch as a saver for that scenario.
    He might get to the members but I think he's done.
    Truss is still value I think - as she beats Sunak handily, though her MP path is difficult.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,446
    Leon said:

    43C across central England. Breaking the record by 5 degrees. Like a Bob Beamon jump in climate

    This is - if it happens - our version of the Canadian Heat dome

    Heat Dome is a nice phrase for death.

    Like something you get from M&S for a party night.
  • kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    kjh said:

    @Cookie thanks to your reply yesterday re my woke question. Apologies for not acknowledging at the time. Interesting you were the only reply and you aren't typical of someone who is likely to bang on about this topic. I also noted you posted about your experience of your daughter's before so your experience is particularly interesting. My children are now several years out of school so I might be out of touch but we had no experience of this. Would love to hear from other parents. What does the school say when challenged?

    To be clear, this is based on my shock from visiting schools we're considering for our daughter's senior school - she's still only 10. But it's universal: private and state, selective and non-selective. Which is odd, because the primary schools my daughters have been to are not perceptibly more woke than the state primary school I attended 30 years ago. I think it would be quite hard to challenge the school on this. It's easy to criticise the excesses of woke anonymously on an internet forum; much more risky in real life to a school which your children have to attend. You hear stories of quite hostile pushback to that sort of thing, and the last thing a parent wants to do is make life more difficult for their children.
    Society can be divided into two types of people

    Those who do not believe Woke is a problem = those who have not yet encountered it in work or life

    Those who realise Woke is a problem = those who have now encountered it. Parents of kids age 10-15 are a classic case, because they can suddenly see it running rampant in schools
    If woke is rampant why haven't we encountered it in work or life then like you say? Your statement doesn't make sense therefore does it? Maybe we have encountered it and in most cases find it irritating but irrelevant. As I said yesterday we just think pillocks and move on.

    Note I asked you a question about this yesterday and you didn't reply. Only @cookie did and I find his reply disturbing. You keep banging on about it but don't say how it affects your life.
    I’ve seen it as a writer for the Knappers Gazette. It absolutely affects journalism and publishing. Next
    How?

    And you didn't deal with the contradiction in your statements i.e. it is rampant but the reason we don't recognise it is because we haven't come across it. Can't both be true.

    We have and we brush it off in most cases as political correct nonsense.
    Have you heard of Suzanne Moore?
    https://unherd.com/2020/11/why-i-had-to-leave-the-guardian/
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,570

    Nigelb said:

    This is exactly the sort of western military forklift is what wins artillery heavy wars...

    ...& no one in Western military intelligence noticed that Russia has practiced "unilateral forklift disarmament" for 80 years, until Ukraine war tweets rubbed that fact in their faces🤦‍♂️👇


    https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1547443237518016514

    One of the amusing things about this is seeing 'experts' referring to telehandlers as 'forklifts'. they're very different, and the vehicle shown is most definitely a telehandler.

    Experts, eh? ;)
    Otherwise known as reach forklift.
    The example shown is very much a forklift - just a subset of the general category.
    Not really: and the difference between forklift and telehandler are really important on sites. And the military would probably want telehandlers in most circumstances given their greater flexibility.
    One thing thaI wonder, is how well equipped the Ukranians are with this sort of palletised logistics. Perhaps the reason for the artillery and HIMARS delay was equipping with this sort of logistics handling equipment.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,644
    edited July 2022
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    If this verifies, and it is getting closer, this will dominate the news for days. Incredible stuff

    These are lethal temperatures and many will die


    Jeez. There's a 44°C on the coast there. That heat with our humidity and a sea breeze?
    Come to Northumberland. There's a 23 over us.
    Hah! I missed the 44°C. Pure fantasy.

    PS It's an absolutely glorious day here in Dorset this morning, 21.2°C, blue skies, gentle breeze. Perfect.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,346

    Not that I place much store by Lord Frost’s judgment:

    Wow. A devastating assessment of @PennyMordaunt from Lord Frost on @TalkTV just now. He says she simply wasn't up to the job as a minister and had to be moved on. Having worked with her closely he has "grave reservations" about her abilities. Crikey!

    https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1547474927091171329

    Did he say who he was backing? I am very interested in knowing who he's getting behind - he could be influential.
    Ah, I see it's Truss. Actually it was said here yesterday that Truss would be making a serious attack on PM today, so I suppose this is it. Good person to do it via.
    You kind of feel if Penny gets it the Conservatives will come across as split quite quickly? 😕 the Daily Mail would really have to change its tune quite quickly.
    No, I think she'd give out the right (right) signals and get that wing of the party on board fairly easily. I'd see Penny being fairly traditional in that her cabinet will attempt to use all the available talent regardless of affiliation.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,027
    Truss also walked off the stage the wrong way. Reminds me a bit of May, just much worse
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Phil said:

    Leon said:

    If this verifies, and it is getting closer, this will dominate the news for days. Incredible stuff

    These are lethal temperatures and many will die


    I think this is an outlier prediction that’s been cherry picked for headlines. All the prediction services I can find are going for 36 or 37 °C . Which is quite bad enough...
    Indeed. GFS 18z throwing out fantasy charts. It’s going to be disgustingly hot. But not that hot. As Leon knows.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,723
    dixiedean said:

    Mordaunt needs to clear up this homeopathy thing if there's any chance I could support her. I mentioned last night that the EDM she signed on it was on the same day that she tabled her very first EDM, so she may have signed it as a quid pro quo to get others to sign hers (half that signed hers also signed the homeopathy EDM). But I need to know that she knows that the magic pills have no more effect than non-magic placebos.

    I was rather amused to see what David Tredinnick, who tabled the homeopathy EDM, also believes, including,
    "Tredinnick is a supporter of astrology and its use in medical practice"
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Tredinnick_(politician)

    Her wiki page says "she is a supporter of homeopathy".
    Now, I am aware anyone can edit that, but I'd be pretty keen to take that down sharpish were I about to become PM when the vast majority of the country hasn't even heard of me.
    Unless she's happy with that description.
    Cheap. Buy half a dozen pills of expensive drug x, dilute in a swimming pool a hundred times, and you have enough medicine for the NHS for 10 years for that particular drug. One can see the attractions to a certain mentality.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,754

    Poor Liz really is a bad public speaker.

    IIRC so was Thatcher until, after her election as leader, she took elocution lessons.
    It is eminently fixable with easily available training. It never fails to astonish me how bad modern politicians are at simple tradecraft like public speaking and being interviewed.
    I'd argue the opposite: politicians are generally very good at public speaking and being interviewed when compared to an average Joe like myself.

    Especially as interviewers often spend lots of time trying to catch out the interviewee.
    First, politicians are not compared with average Joes like yourself, they are compared with other politicians.

    On your second point, that interviewers try to catch out interviewees, I suspect too much of what passes for media training consists of parrying awkward questions. Gordon Brown famously took two days to tell mumsnet his favourite biscuit because it might be a trap!

    Youtube has many examples of politicians from previous generations. They tend to be better than today's at these things. My advice to any aspiring politician (or job-seeker or footballer) is practice makes perfect, or at least a damn sight better than dodging the studios for years then turning up cold when it really matters.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    What do homeopathy and sex in a canoe have in common?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    I've put money at Badenoch as I think she is value here. Rationale:

    If the right do consolidate around a candidate out of Braverman, Badenoch and Truss, Braverman obviously won't be that person and I'm not sure Truss is the default people think she is. The right would want someone who would win in the members contest. I think they'd be worried that Truss wouldn't do that, especially as she is not that great a speaker.

    Re Sunak being a value bet, the key problem is that there's no real 'Team Rishi' its people who support him because they think he will win. Take that away, and his support may fade quickly.

    Betting post: is Rishi heading towards value at 4.4?

    Let’s say he makes the final. Penny has fully five weeks in front of the TV cameras to implode. That’s not inconceivable- it would be fairly easy to see her coming unstuck on matters of fiscal policy, for example.

    And I write this as one who wants her to win.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,089
    The record high temperature in the UK is 38.7°C, which was reached at Cambridge Botanic Garden on 25 July 2019
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,877
    edited July 2022

    What do homeopathy and sex in a canoe have in common?

    American beer
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,401
    Carnyx said:

    Selebian said:

    IanB2 said:

    Selebian said:

    Mordaunt needs to clear up this homeopathy thing if there's any chance I could support her. I mentioned last night that the EDM she signed on it was on the same day that she tabled her very first EDM, so she may have signed it as a quid pro quo to get others to sign hers (half that signed hers also signed the homeopathy EDM). But I need to know that she knows that the magic pills have no more effect than non-magic placebos.

    I was rather amused to see what David Tredinnick, who tabled the homeopathy EDM, also believes, including,
    "Tredinnick is a supporter of astrology and its use in medical practice"
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Tredinnick_(politician)

    Hunt had form there, too, of course. Although I believe he subsequently recanted.
    It was just one comment he made, among millions?
    There was the story about the review of homeopathy studies. Though that may have just been done to keep the requestor happy - easier to get some flunkies to assess them than to simply tell the guy he's a nutter and to go away.

    Edit: Or is that whooshing noise I hear a homeopathy joke passing me by? If so, then even if massively diluted in his public statements, it would still be highly effective, no? :wink:
    TBF astrology used to be on the Oxford MD degree syllabus. Admittedly rather a long time ago.
    There's still this: Cultural Astronomy and Astrology at University of Wales, Trinity Saint David.
    Although how long Trinity Saint Davids will be there to offer it is a different question!
  • It seems like she was a minister for a department that had a policy she didn’t agree with?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    I think so if she gets to the members contest. It will be raised ad infinitum.

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,446

    Best chance now for the right is if Badenoch leapfrogs Truss and cannibalises her vote.

    Badenoch is DEFINITELY the heir to Gove. 🙂. At first hearing it all sounds so brilliantly considered and spot on. Until you take a closer look and some of it is absolute word salad.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,277
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    If this verifies, and it is getting closer, this will dominate the news for days. Incredible stuff

    These are lethal temperatures and many will die


    Jeez. There's a 44°C on the coast there. That heat with our humidity and a sea breeze?
    Come to Northumberland. There's a 23 over us.
    The dewpoint temperature is due to reach 20C in a few places, much higher than over France and Spain. That makes it harder for bodies to cool down by sweating.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,280
    Pulpstar said:

    The record high temperature in the UK is 38.7°C, which was reached at Cambridge Botanic Garden on 25 July 2019

    Odds of breaking that next week, I'd put around 6/4
    Odds of breaking 40: 7/2
    Odds of breaking 43: 30/1
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,010
    edited July 2022
    jonny83 said:

    Betting post: is Rishi heading towards value at 4.4?

    Let’s say he makes the final. Penny has fully five weeks in front of the TV cameras to implode. That’s not inconceivable- it would be fairly easy to see her coming unstuck on matters of fiscal policy, for example.

    And I write this as one who wants her to win.

    Quite possible, there will as you say plenty of opportunities on a big public stage for someone to implode with a dire performance.

    Who knows Sunak could be the one to implode. He strikes me as someone that gets very defensive and doesn't come across well when asked difficult questions with regards to criticism of his record as chancellor or his own financial affairs.
    Classic sign of someone who's had it (too) easy all his life.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,474
    Pulpstar said:

    The record high temperature in the UK is 38.7°C, which was reached at Cambridge Botanic Garden on 25 July 2019

    I remember that day. I took the little 'un to a play barn (baby cage) in Peterborough, and as I drove back down the A1(M) the temperate gauge in the car approached 40 degrees. Fantastically hot.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,346
    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    Mordaunt needs to clear up this homeopathy thing if there's any chance I could support her. I mentioned last night that the EDM she signed on it was on the same day that she tabled her very first EDM, so she may have signed it as a quid pro quo to get others to sign hers (half that signed hers also signed the homeopathy EDM). But I need to know that she knows that the magic pills have no more effect than non-magic placebos.

    I was rather amused to see what David Tredinnick, who tabled the homeopathy EDM, also believes, including,
    "Tredinnick is a supporter of astrology and its use in medical practice"
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Tredinnick_(politician)

    Her wiki page says "she is a supporter of homeopathy".
    Now, I am aware anyone can edit that, but I'd be pretty keen to take that down sharpish were I about to become PM when the vast majority of the country hasn't even heard of me.
    Unless she's happy with that description.
    Cheap. Buy half a dozen pills of expensive drug x, dilute in a swimming pool a hundred times, and you have enough medicine for the NHS for 10 years for that particular drug. One can see the attractions to a certain mentality.
    But really a homeopathic remedy (or something else you invent) is the only way to administer a placebo successfully. And we know placebos work, and in some cases are probably less harmful than a drug. So why ban their use, and reduce the options for doctors still further?

    Reminds me of this very funny clip:
    https://youtu.be/ntWO7jnOcWE
  • https://www.pinknews.co.uk/2018/07/02/penny-mordaunt-interview-gender-recognition-act/

    So she’s changed her mind?

    Of course this shouldn’t matter because we have CoL to deal with but I wonder if she’s going to come unstuck soon
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,723

    Carnyx said:

    Selebian said:

    IanB2 said:

    Selebian said:

    Mordaunt needs to clear up this homeopathy thing if there's any chance I could support her. I mentioned last night that the EDM she signed on it was on the same day that she tabled her very first EDM, so she may have signed it as a quid pro quo to get others to sign hers (half that signed hers also signed the homeopathy EDM). But I need to know that she knows that the magic pills have no more effect than non-magic placebos.

    I was rather amused to see what David Tredinnick, who tabled the homeopathy EDM, also believes, including,
    "Tredinnick is a supporter of astrology and its use in medical practice"
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Tredinnick_(politician)

    Hunt had form there, too, of course. Although I believe he subsequently recanted.
    It was just one comment he made, among millions?
    There was the story about the review of homeopathy studies. Though that may have just been done to keep the requestor happy - easier to get some flunkies to assess them than to simply tell the guy he's a nutter and to go away.

    Edit: Or is that whooshing noise I hear a homeopathy joke passing me by? If so, then even if massively diluted in his public statements, it would still be highly effective, no? :wink:
    TBF astrology used to be on the Oxford MD degree syllabus. Admittedly rather a long time ago.
    There's still this: Cultural Astronomy and Astrology at University of Wales, Trinity Saint David.
    Although how long Trinity Saint Davids will be there to offer it is a different question!
    Hmm, seems to be a historical and sociological course - Stonehenge orientations, the culture of brownricer crystal fans at Glastonbury/Totnes, etc., rather than a DIY one. But I imagine knowing how to cast a horoscope is pretty necessary, so I wonder what the mix of students is like!
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    kjh said:

    @Cookie thanks to your reply yesterday re my woke question. Apologies for not acknowledging at the time. Interesting you were the only reply and you aren't typical of someone who is likely to bang on about this topic. I also noted you posted about your experience of your daughter's before so your experience is particularly interesting. My children are now several years out of school so I might be out of touch but we had no experience of this. Would love to hear from other parents. What does the school say when challenged?

    To be clear, this is based on my shock from visiting schools we're considering for our daughter's senior school - she's still only 10. But it's universal: private and state, selective and non-selective. Which is odd, because the primary schools my daughters have been to are not perceptibly more woke than the state primary school I attended 30 years ago. I think it would be quite hard to challenge the school on this. It's easy to criticise the excesses of woke anonymously on an internet forum; much more risky in real life to a school which your children have to attend. You hear stories of quite hostile pushback to that sort of thing, and the last thing a parent wants to do is make life more difficult for their children.
    Society can be divided into two types of people

    Those who do not believe Woke is a problem = those who have not yet encountered it in work or life

    Those who realise Woke is a problem = those who have now encountered it. Parents of kids age 10-15 are a classic case, because they can suddenly see it running rampant in schools
    If woke is rampant why haven't we encountered it in work or life then like you say? Your statement doesn't make sense therefore does it? Maybe we have encountered it and in most cases find it irritating but irrelevant. As I said yesterday we just think pillocks and move on.

    Note I asked you a question about this yesterday and you didn't reply. Only @cookie did and I find his reply disturbing. You keep banging on about it but don't say how it affects your life.
    If woke is rampant why haven't we encountered it in work

    I genuinely don't know what to make of this comment. Every single moderately large company has a social media team who pump out a near continuous stream of vacuous virtue-signalling nonsense on equality, diversity, inclusion etc for every minority group under the sun. It's particularly prevalent in June, when they all change their corporate logos to include rainbows for Pride month. LinkedIn becomes even more unreadable than usual because of the weight of posts on the subject. I absolutely do not understand how anyone could be in the workforce and not have noticed this, somewhere.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039
    CD13 said:

    Mr Leon,

    "These are lethal temperatures and many will die."

    Have you been writing the Daily Express headlines for the last sixty years?

    There was a similar event in France (in 2003?)

    IIRC 15,000 died
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,020
    Stocky said:

    When Penny supported the “overwhelming anecdotal evidence” (sic) in favour of homeopathy:

    The 16 signatories provide an interesting list of MPs who don't believe in science. Some surprising names.

    https://twitter.com/ProfAliceS/status/1547474016784506881

    Mordaunt holds the best chance for the CP at the next election and this is her main plus point. However, I think she has a taste for the eye-catching - she has had to row back from the defining a women stuff and now we have the homeopathy stuff. If I were a CP member I would have doubts about her.
    I think the homeopathy stuff is vanishingly small in importance, and will just be used as mud.

    It's well over a decade ago, so I'd suggest all it will need is a clarification.

    I'm more inclined to concern about her ability to run an administration - as for other candidates - and I wonder if, in the style of Boris, the next administration will need a majordomo.
This discussion has been closed.