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The papers are in no doubt about the Tory winner – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,592
edited July 2022 in General
imageThe papers are in no doubt about the Tory winner – politicalbetting.com

Today I wonder whether we could see withdrawals that would shorten this stage of the processing.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 682
    First like PM4PM
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,925
    FPT:-
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Blast from the past:

    Boris Johnson puts the ban on smoking on planes and airports into Room 101 with Paul Merton in 2003.

    At 22 mins 20 secs:

    https://archive.org/details/room-101-s8/Room.101.S08E02.Boris.Johnson.avi

    The lovechild of Margaret Thatcher and Scooby Doo.
    Boris wearing a fez, smoking a cigar and discussing his cannabis use is the highlight.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,925
    Betfair next PM prices:-

    1.9 Penny Mordaunt 52%
    4.4 Rishi Sunak 22%
    5.7 Liz Truss 17%
    19.5 Kemi Badenoch 5%
    55 Tom Tugendhat
    130 Suella Braverman
    330 Dominic Raab
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,477
    Third like Truss
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,477
    It’s not that hard to see the right wing vote coalescing behind Truss, which could still cut Mordaunt out of the final two. It may hang on whether some of Sunak’s support drifts given his evident lack of support among the membership. Some of the more sensible MPs won’t want to get landed with Truss - which they clearly risk if the right wing puts her through alongside Sunak.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,176
    You'd think she was top amongst MPs the way Mordaunt is seen as virtually a shoo-in if she maintains her current position.

    There's reasoning for that, Sunak is a dead man walking unless his rivals undercut each other, but it still seems odd.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,176
    Its at a s point with Rishi that even if he does really well in the final two anything he says or offers might get dismissed by the members as him acting desperately.

    MPs might yet drift away. Truss vs Mordaunt?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,705
    IanB2 said:

    It’s not that hard to see the right wing vote coalescing behind Truss, which could still cut Mordaunt out of the final two. It may hang on whether some of Sunak’s support drifts given his evident lack of support among the membership. Some of the more sensible MPs won’t want to get landed with Truss - which they clearly risk if the right wing puts her through alongside Sunak.

    Total destruction of your own argument, the phrase below is one of fantasy, imagination or fiction.
    Some of the more sensible MPs
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,176
    oxfordsimon said:

    williamglenn said:

    Kemi on levelling up:

    https://www.express.co.uk/comment/expresscomment/1640191/tory-leadership-race-kemi-badenoch-unite-Britain

    Unless it is built on a solid foundation of attracting private sector investment and jobs, no other aspect of levelling up will ever succeed.
    Geographically, we need to recognise our economy has changed, and broaden the number of places that levelling up must help.

    For a long time, government policy has been overly focussed on the inner cities.

    But now our largest cities have been growing faster than the rest of the country. Levelling up is about Stoke and Bodmin as much as Birmingham, and Hartlepool as much as central Newcastle.

    Rural and coastal areas can have the lowest earnings, lowest productivity, lowest school achievement and the most limited opportunities for young people. Levelling up has to be about helping these communities, not just the centres of our biggest cities.

    If I become Prime Minister, I will build on the current levelling up agenda to deliver jobs and prosperity for the people of this country.

    Almost as though there were lots of rural MP votes up for grabs.

    Very rare for any politician to acknowledge rural communities. She is to be commended for that.
    Almost as though there are lots of rural MP votes up for grabs.

    Edit- bloody vanilla.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,477
    kle4 said:

    Its at a s point with Rishi that even if he does really well in the final two anything he says or offers might get dismissed by the members as him acting desperately.

    MPs might yet drift away. Truss vs Mordaunt?

    MPs will drift away for potential patronage from the new PM, if they sniff that Sunak isn’t going to make it. There’s little to be gained by way of preferment from Sunak if the members won’t vote for him, and the chance that he might be so far ahead as to get it by acclamation or momentum is now gone. That latter is the big story from yesterday.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,332
    So a pro-Russian guy videoed a Russian ammo store in Donestsk. The Ukrainians geolocated the video, and allegedly gave it a deserved malletting.

    https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1547214705164435457

    The video is interesting for what is happening. Russian logistics is rumoured to be pants, with little automated or palletised handling of ammunition. And the video shows a dozen people moving stuff by hand into the back of a creaky old lorry. A dozen for a job that could be done by a couple and a telehandler or other vehicle if the Russians were actually organised.

    Now, there is a chance that this is unusual: due to breakdowns of machinery, spillages or broken palettes, there will always be some manual handling going on. But look at those shells on the ground: those are all going to have to be lugged by hand. And hey are on the ground *behind* something that looks suspiciously like a palette. And behind, small boxes that are relatively hard to lift by machine.

    This is so incredibly basic it's amazing that they haven't got it right.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,971
    As always, the media get ahead of themselves with things like this. Obviously Mordaunt has a very good chance of winning, but she’s still got to make the top two.

    The media don’t understand that who you aren’t is as important as who you’re are. The MPs now have a feel for the lie of the land. The second round could throw up some interesting and unexpected changes.

    The danger for Penny is that she now has a target on her back. That YouGov polling might focus a few minds.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,572
    tlg86 said:

    As always, the media get ahead of themselves with things like this. Obviously Mordaunt has a very good chance of winning, but she’s still got to make the top two.

    The media don’t understand that who you aren’t is as important as who you’re are. The MPs now have a feel for the lie of the land. The second round could throw up some interesting and unexpected changes.

    The danger for Penny is that she now has a target on her back. That YouGov polling might focus a few minds.

    YouGov doesn’t mean very much when it’s asking about someone most of the public don’t know. It’s the latter point MPs will have to think about.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,809
    Nick Watt said on Newsnight that some people had expected Sunak to get between 100 and 109 and that these people believed he had lost votes during the day yesterday.

    Now we don't know if the above is correct. But IF it is, then there must be scope for that trend to continue.

    Of course we know Hunt is supporting him and I would have thought he would ordinarily be expected to get at least about 10 of the 43 who voted for Hunt / Zahawi.

    But if he stalls completely or let's say increases by no more than five votes then he is likely to grind to a halt.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,768
    Good morning, everyone.

    Badenoch still at 20. Mildly surprised. Tugendhat, just 3 MPs below her yesterday, was 46.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,850
    MikeL said:

    Nick Watt said on Newsnight that some people had expected Sunak to get between 100 and 109 and that these people believed he had lost votes during the day yesterday.

    Now we don't know if the above is correct. But IF it is, then there must be scope for that trend to continue.

    Of course we know Hunt is supporting him and I would have thought he would ordinarily be expected to get at least about 10 of the 43 who voted for Hunt / Zahawi.

    But if he stalls completely or let's say increases by no more than five votes then he is likely to grind to a halt.

    The members polling is so bad for him. I think Mordaunt vs Truss say would be a live game whereas Rishi vs almost anyone else just wouldn't be.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,572
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Badenoch still at 20. Mildly surprised. Tugendhat, just 3 MPs below her yesterday, was 46.

    To whom are Braverman supporters more likely to switch ?
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,193
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Badenoch still at 20. Mildly surprised. Tugendhat, just 3 MPs below her yesterday, was 46.

    Probably an indication of perceived transfer friendliness Mr Dancer.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,768
    Cheers, Mr. B and Mr. Jim (and it's good to see you on again).

    If Sunak's campaign falls away, do his supporters shift to Mordaunt? I imagine those who are backing him as the perceived favourite would probably do so.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,193
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Cheers, Mr. B and Mr. Jim (and it's good to see you on again).

    If Sunak's campaign falls away, do his supporters shift to Mordaunt? I imagine those who are backing him as the perceived favourite would probably do so.

    Thanks. I lurk intermittently still. If Sunak begins to be seen as a busted flush then I see that helping Mordaunt with his more centrist and careerist backers. You get the impression that most people think he’s still going to be the winner and therefore vehicle of patronage. That’s my explanation for Hunt moving rapidly from blasting Recession Rishi to finding he’s Supportable Sunak. He’s kind of earned his interchangeable C there.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 25,454
    Nigelb said:

    Ukraine destroyed 5 Russian ammunition depots on 13 July - Odesa RegAdm. Spox

    ❌Luhansk
    ❌Chornobayivka, Kherson Oblast
    ❌Makiiivka, Donetsk Oblast
    ❌Chaplinka (district), Kherson Oblast
    ❌Horlivka, Donetsk Oblast

    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1547315735864770564

    Another day, another Russian ammo depot

    Another day, five Russian ammo depots.

    Impressive!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,336
    edited July 2022
    Good morning one and all! Nice to see Jack W posting again. And, as Mr D. says, ToryJim.
    Totally off topic, but today's Worldle should be a shoo-in for anybody in the UK!
    I suspect there are going to be some changes in the voting today; some people are going to change their vote on seeing there's a possible bandwagon on which to jump.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    if Sunak did somehow win it would mean a permanent, de facto Tory split until his removal - so ongoing and brutal civil war between the vaguely rational and the ERG.
    Truss could quite easily start an actual war, so it does look like Mordaunt will be the new Tory leader. Then, over the next 18 months or so, we will learn that she is a lightweight fantasist who is prone to fibbing and who got the job because of who she isn't.
    Looking form the outside in, Badenoch seems to be the only coherent, intelligent candidate in the pack - but she is very far to the right on economics and so is likely to crash Tory support in the Red Wall. The culture war stuff will cement the 30% of diehards but it will only work beyond that with more a practical acknowledgement that most people think austerity has gone too far already.
    The Tories need smart people like Badenoch in high office, but to be successful electorally they probably don't need them in either the Treasury or Number 10.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,082
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Nigelb said:

    Ukraine destroyed 5 Russian ammunition depots on 13 July - Odesa RegAdm. Spox

    ❌Luhansk
    ❌Chornobayivka, Kherson Oblast
    ❌Makiiivka, Donetsk Oblast
    ❌Chaplinka (district), Kherson Oblast
    ❌Horlivka, Donetsk Oblast

    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1547315735864770564

    Another day, another Russian ammo depot

    Another day, five Russian ammo depots.

    Impressive!
    Himars plus western intelligence data making a difference.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,082
    Nigelb said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Badenoch still at 20. Mildly surprised. Tugendhat, just 3 MPs below her yesterday, was 46.

    To whom are Braverman supporters more likely to switch ?
    Truss or Badenoch perhaps.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,193
    logical_song said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Nigelb said:

    Ukraine destroyed 5 Russian ammunition depots on 13 July - Odesa RegAdm. Spox

    ❌Luhansk
    ❌Chornobayivka, Kherson Oblast
    ❌Makiiivka, Donetsk Oblast
    ❌Chaplinka (district), Kherson Oblast
    ❌Horlivka, Donetsk Oblast

    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1547315735864770564

    Another day, another Russian ammo depot

    Another day, five Russian ammo depots.

    Impressive!
    Himars plus western intelligence data making a difference.
    Just imagine what a difference giving them the Migs might make, or even a more concerted supply of other equipment. Definitely a need to stop halfassing our response.

  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,082
    kle4 said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    williamglenn said:

    Kemi on levelling up:

    https://www.express.co.uk/comment/expresscomment/1640191/tory-leadership-race-kemi-badenoch-unite-Britain

    Unless it is built on a solid foundation of attracting private sector investment and jobs, no other aspect of levelling up will ever succeed.
    Geographically, we need to recognise our economy has changed, and broaden the number of places that levelling up must help.

    For a long time, government policy has been overly focussed on the inner cities.

    But now our largest cities have been growing faster than the rest of the country. Levelling up is about Stoke and Bodmin as much as Birmingham, and Hartlepool as much as central Newcastle.

    Rural and coastal areas can have the lowest earnings, lowest productivity, lowest school achievement and the most limited opportunities for young people. Levelling up has to be about helping these communities, not just the centres of our biggest cities.

    If I become Prime Minister, I will build on the current levelling up agenda to deliver jobs and prosperity for the people of this country.

    Almost as though there were lots of rural MP votes up for grabs.

    Very rare for any politician to acknowledge rural communities. She is to be commended for that.
    Almost as though there are lots of rural MP votes up for grabs.

    Edit- bloody vanilla.

    Saffron Walden is quite rural, so she should know.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,336
    Another off topic, but did anybody else watch the Mo Farah documentary last night? To my mind it raised a lot of questions and answered very few!

    I do wonder what would've happened if the Home Office had suggested deporting him!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,996
    I still think too much is being read into the Yougov poll of members yesterday. Rishi has time to recover with the membership if he gets through and he is by far the best known of the remaining candidates.

    There is, however, a feeling that the Tories need a fresh start and it may be that being associated with Boris is fatal to Rishi. He has to explain what he would do differently as PM, not least in tax and economic policy and he has to do it quickly.

    Rishi is in a hard place. None of the other candidates will give him back the Treasury for the above reason. If he doesn't win he faces a serious demotion at best and the risk of being simply out.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,332
    "This morning we were due to be questioning the Home Secretary, Priti Patel
    @ukhomeoffice. She declined to attend our session. "

    https://twitter.com/CommonsHomeAffs/status/1547157819580981249
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    DavidL said:

    I still think too much is being read into the Yougov poll of members yesterday. Rishi has time to recover with the membership if he gets through and he is by far the best known of the remaining candidates.

    There is, however, a feeling that the Tories need a fresh start and it may be that being associated with Boris is fatal to Rishi. He has to explain what he would do differently as PM, not least in tax and economic policy and he has to do it quickly.

    Rishi is in a hard place. None of the other candidates will give him back the Treasury for the above reason. If he doesn't win he faces a serious demotion at best and the risk of being simply out.

    There is no way that the ERG will accept Sunak's leadership if he does win. It will be permanent civil war inside the PCP - unless he does what Johnson did and throws out the critics. That would probably be best for the Tories - and certainly for the country - in the long term, but it would almost certainly also mean a surge in support for Reform/UKIP and so a guaranteed election defeat.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,332
    OldKingCole said:

    Another off topic, but did anybody else watch the Mo Farah documentary last night? To my mind it raised a lot of questions and answered very few!

    I do wonder what would've happened if the Home Office had suggested deporting him!

    I didn't watch it, but Farah is one of the celebrities I half-expect to suffer a fall in the next few years. Doping might be an issue in particular:

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/feb/24/leaked-reports-show-mo-farah-changed-account-to-us-investigators
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,996
    darkage said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    if Sunak did somehow win it would mean a permanent, de facto Tory split until his removal - so ongoing and brutal civil war between the vaguely rational and the ERG.
    Truss could quite easily start an actual war, so it does look like Mordaunt will be the new Tory leader. Then, over the next 18 months or so, we will learn that she is a lightweight fantasist who is prone to fibbing and who got the job because of who she isn't.
    Looking form the outside in, Badenoch seems to be the only coherent, intelligent candidate in the pack - but she is very far to the right on economics and so is likely to crash Tory support in the Red Wall. The culture war stuff will cement the 30% of diehards but it will only work beyond that with more a practical acknowledgement that most people think austerity has gone too far already.
    The Tories need smart people like Badenoch in high office, but to be successful electorally they probably don't need them in either the Treasury or Number 10.

    It is a difficult question. @pigeon made some good points yesterday about the collision course between Badenoch's ideas and the reality, which is that the Conservative party is largely elected by pensioners who vote to preserve their free money and self interest. It isn't that long ago since the Tories suffered an electoral disaster by trying to make mild reforms to adult social care. So it is one thing to have lots of brilliant ideas about having a small state and promoting personal responsibility, but there is an unchanging, underlying electoral reality that this is fundamentally inconsistent with. In a lot of ways Badenoch is a fantasy candidate - a sort of Corbyn moment for the tories.
    Yes there is a naive clarity about her thinking and solutions that has had insufficient contact with the messy reality. She needs a significant government department and to wrestle with reality for a few years. But her emergence has been interesting and she clearly has talent. Very possibly the leader after next if she can adapt.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    darkage said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    if Sunak did somehow win it would mean a permanent, de facto Tory split until his removal - so ongoing and brutal civil war between the vaguely rational and the ERG.
    Truss could quite easily start an actual war, so it does look like Mordaunt will be the new Tory leader. Then, over the next 18 months or so, we will learn that she is a lightweight fantasist who is prone to fibbing and who got the job because of who she isn't.
    Looking form the outside in, Badenoch seems to be the only coherent, intelligent candidate in the pack - but she is very far to the right on economics and so is likely to crash Tory support in the Red Wall. The culture war stuff will cement the 30% of diehards but it will only work beyond that with more a practical acknowledgement that most people think austerity has gone too far already.
    The Tories need smart people like Badenoch in high office, but to be successful electorally they probably don't need them in either the Treasury or Number 10.

    It is a difficult question. @pigeon made some good points yesterday about the collision course between Badenoch's ideas and the reality, which is that the Conservative party is largely elected by pensioners who vote to preserve their free money and self interest. It isn't that long ago since the Tories suffered an electoral disaster by trying to make mild reforms to adult social care. So it is one thing to have lots of brilliant ideas about having a small state and promoting personal responsibility, but there is an unchanging, underlying electoral reality that this is fundamentally inconsistent with. In a lot of ways Badenoch is a fantasy candidate - a sort of Corbyn moment for the tories.
    Yep - and it's not just pensioners. Parents with school age kids know the realities of the cuts that are being made to education across the country already, while other basic public services are already in deep trouble. Here in East Devon we get our non-green bins emptied once every three weeks, and the county council is now on the line for another £40 million of cuts. Then there's the NHS, social care, energy price caps, the need to increase defence spending etc etc etc

    You might be able to argue for, implement and embed small state Toryism when the economic times are good, it is an incredibly tough sell when the state is already creaking and people are feeling the pinch and actively noticing the degradation of the public sphere.

  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 682
    DavidL said:

    I still think too much is being read into the Yougov poll of members yesterday. Rishi has time to recover with the membership if he gets through and he is by far the best known of the remaining candidates.

    There is, however, a feeling that the Tories need a fresh start and it may be that being associated with Boris is fatal to Rishi. He has to explain what he would do differently as PM, not least in tax and economic policy and he has to do it quickly.

    Rishi is in a hard place. None of the other candidates will give him back the Treasury for the above reason. If he doesn't win he faces a serious demotion at best and the risk of being simply out.

    With hours to go until round 2 there is no time for Sunak to recover from the YouGov poll and the big mo(rdaunt) from the largely positive media coverage.

    We might muse on whether Sunak and some others will fall back as MP's look to reassess their positions as the PM4PM mood music becomes ever louder.

    Gisa job Penny they call ...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,477
    edited July 2022
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Badenoch still at 20. Mildly surprised. Tugendhat, just 3 MPs below her yesterday, was 46.

    Assumption of inter-loony transfers?
  • eekeek Posts: 30,783
    JosiasJessop said:

    So a pro-Russian guy videoed a Russian ammo store in Donestsk. The Ukrainians geolocated the video, and allegedly gave it a deserved malletting.

    https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1547214705164435457

    The video is interesting for what is happening. Russian logistics is rumoured to be pants, with little automated or palletised handling of ammunition. And the video shows a dozen people moving stuff by hand into the back of a creaky old lorry. A dozen for a job that could be done by a couple and a telehandler or other vehicle if the Russians were actually organised.

    Now, there is a chance that this is unusual: due to breakdowns of machinery, spillages or broken palettes, there will always be some manual handling going on. But look at those shells on the ground: those are all going to have to be lugged by hand. And hey are on the ground *behind* something that looks suspiciously like a palette. And behind, small boxes that are relatively hard to lift by machine.

    This is so incredibly basic it's amazing that they haven't got it right.

    We've covered this a couple of times already - Russia likes things to be centralised and has never seen the need to improves things because it worked in WW2, labour is cheap and money could be better spent (or stolen) elsewhere.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,256
    DavidL said:

    darkage said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    if Sunak did somehow win it would mean a permanent, de facto Tory split until his removal - so ongoing and brutal civil war between the vaguely rational and the ERG.
    Truss could quite easily start an actual war, so it does look like Mordaunt will be the new Tory leader. Then, over the next 18 months or so, we will learn that she is a lightweight fantasist who is prone to fibbing and who got the job because of who she isn't.
    Looking form the outside in, Badenoch seems to be the only coherent, intelligent candidate in the pack - but she is very far to the right on economics and so is likely to crash Tory support in the Red Wall. The culture war stuff will cement the 30% of diehards but it will only work beyond that with more a practical acknowledgement that most people think austerity has gone too far already.
    The Tories need smart people like Badenoch in high office, but to be successful electorally they probably don't need them in either the Treasury or Number 10.

    It is a difficult question. @pigeon made some good points yesterday about the collision course between Badenoch's ideas and the reality, which is that the Conservative party is largely elected by pensioners who vote to preserve their free money and self interest. It isn't that long ago since the Tories suffered an electoral disaster by trying to make mild reforms to adult social care. So it is one thing to have lots of brilliant ideas about having a small state and promoting personal responsibility, but there is an unchanging, underlying electoral reality that this is fundamentally inconsistent with. In a lot of ways Badenoch is a fantasy candidate - a sort of Corbyn moment for the tories.
    Yes there is a naive clarity about her thinking and solutions that has had insufficient contact with the messy reality. She needs a significant government department and to wrestle with reality for a few years. But her emergence has been interesting and she clearly has talent. Very possibly the leader after next if she can adapt.
    Not an easy pair of horses to ride, though.
    A lot of her appeal is the clarity that comes from ignoring the lumpy bits of reality. It's possible to talk in (good) simplistic headlines whilst governing in messy detail- Maggie at her best did it. But it could go horribly wrong.

    And there is the "in your heart you know she's right / but in your guts, you know she's nuts" thing.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,477
    OldKingCole said:

    Another off topic, but did anybody else watch the Mo Farah documentary last night? To my mind it raised a lot of questions and answered very few!

    I do wonder what would've happened if the Home Office had suggested deporting him!

    Well, plod is now on the case
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    JosiasJessop said:

    So a pro-Russian guy videoed a Russian ammo store in Donestsk. The Ukrainians geolocated the video, and allegedly gave it a deserved malletting.

    https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1547214705164435457

    The video is interesting for what is happening. Russian logistics is rumoured to be pants, with little automated or palletised handling of ammunition. And the video shows a dozen people moving stuff by hand into the back of a creaky old lorry. A dozen for a job that could be done by a couple and a telehandler or other vehicle if the Russians were actually organised.

    Now, there is a chance that this is unusual: due to breakdowns of machinery, spillages or broken palettes, there will always be some manual handling going on. But look at those shells on the ground: those are all going to have to be lugged by hand. And hey are on the ground *behind* something that looks suspiciously like a palette. And behind, small boxes that are relatively hard to lift by machine.

    This is so incredibly basic it's amazing that they haven't got it right.

    See this thread:

    https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1507056013245128716
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,332
    eek said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    So a pro-Russian guy videoed a Russian ammo store in Donestsk. The Ukrainians geolocated the video, and allegedly gave it a deserved malletting.

    https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1547214705164435457

    The video is interesting for what is happening. Russian logistics is rumoured to be pants, with little automated or palletised handling of ammunition. And the video shows a dozen people moving stuff by hand into the back of a creaky old lorry. A dozen for a job that could be done by a couple and a telehandler or other vehicle if the Russians were actually organised.

    Now, there is a chance that this is unusual: due to breakdowns of machinery, spillages or broken palettes, there will always be some manual handling going on. But look at those shells on the ground: those are all going to have to be lugged by hand. And hey are on the ground *behind* something that looks suspiciously like a palette. And behind, small boxes that are relatively hard to lift by machine.

    This is so incredibly basic it's amazing that they haven't got it right.

    We've covered this a couple of times already - Russia likes things to be centralised and has never seen the need to improves things because it worked in WW2, labour is cheap and money could be better spent (or stolen) elsewhere.
    I know we've covered it before - it was just interesting seeing a video showing the people doing it ,and seeing how many people it needs to do it. There are probably nine or ten people in that video doing an unnecessary job, when they could be more gainfully employed elsewhere. And whilst Russian labour might be cheap, their manpower is nowhere near as plentiful as it was.

    If I had a cold heart I'd laugh.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,336
    edited July 2022
    IanB2 said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Another off topic, but did anybody else watch the Mo Farah documentary last night? To my mind it raised a lot of questions and answered very few!

    I do wonder what would've happened if the Home Office had suggested deporting him!

    Well, plod is now on the case
    Since it's the Met why does that not give me confidence? Admittedly the Home Office have said that there's no question et cetera et cetera of deporting him!
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,752
    Only Met we need to have confidence in over the next week is the Met Office.

    Pretty sure the current amber alert for extreme heat Sunday-Tuesday will be converted to red alert by tomorrow. Models back to showing 38-40C and a night minimum in the mid 20s on Monday.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    This is exactly the sort of western military forklift is what wins artillery heavy wars...

    ...& no one in Western military intelligence noticed that Russia has practiced "unilateral forklift disarmament" for 80 years, until Ukraine war tweets rubbed that fact in their faces🤦‍♂️👇

    https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1547443237518016514
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,297
    SouthamObserver said:

    if Sunak did somehow win it would mean a permanent, de facto Tory split until his removal - so ongoing and brutal civil war between the vaguely rational and the ERG.
    Truss could quite easily start an actual war, so it does look like Mordaunt will be the new Tory leader. Then, over the next 18 months or so, we will learn that she is a lightweight fantasist who is prone to fibbing and who got the job because of who she isn't.
    Looking form the outside in, Badenoch seems to be the only coherent, intelligent candidate in the pack - but she is very far to the right on economics and so is likely to crash Tory support in the Red Wall. The culture war stuff will cement the 30% of diehards but it will only work beyond that with more a practical acknowledgement that most people think austerity has gone too far already.
    The Tories need smart people like Badenoch in high office, but to be successful electorally they probably don't need them in either the Treasury or Number 10.

    I think the Tories best chance is with PM.

    Sunak is hated for being realistic on government finances. Truss is too erratic and a poor speaker. Badenoch is too far to the right on economics and social policy and too simplistic. Any of those 3 puts Starmer in Number 10 in a couple of years time.

    PM may belly flop, but she does at least have the potential to unite the party and put up a strong fight. She is the only one who can retain a Tory majority IMO.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,996
    JACK_W said:

    DavidL said:

    I still think too much is being read into the Yougov poll of members yesterday. Rishi has time to recover with the membership if he gets through and he is by far the best known of the remaining candidates.

    There is, however, a feeling that the Tories need a fresh start and it may be that being associated with Boris is fatal to Rishi. He has to explain what he would do differently as PM, not least in tax and economic policy and he has to do it quickly.

    Rishi is in a hard place. None of the other candidates will give him back the Treasury for the above reason. If he doesn't win he faces a serious demotion at best and the risk of being simply out.

    With hours to go until round 2 there is no time for Sunak to recover from the YouGov poll and the big mo(rdaunt) from the largely positive media coverage.

    We might muse on whether Sunak and some others will fall back as MP's look to reassess their positions as the PM4PM mood music becomes ever louder.

    Gisa job Penny they call ...
    Several people on here had mentioned Penny Mordaunt as the coming thing but to be honest she had made almost zero impact on me until this week and I am still far from clear what she believes in beyond motherhood and apple pie (not cake, of course). And now she is going to be PM? It is an astonishing gamble for a party actually in government.

    This could be good, it is certainly a fresh start for the party and a chance to walk awsy from Boris's lying but it could also be a complete disaster if she finds herself miles out of her depth. Her video had a nice choice of music but said incredibly little about her. This is reckless.

    Sunak has many flaws and made serious errors as Chancellor, especially latterly, but he is at least a known quantity. The Tories are in a febrile state and the speed of this process is not helping them draw breath. I really hope that Sunak makes it to the final 2 so that there is a safer pair of hands if PM turns out to be all puff.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,336
    TimS said:

    Only Met we need to have confidence in over the next week is the Met Office.

    Pretty sure the current amber alert for extreme heat Sunday-Tuesday will be converted to red alert by tomorrow. Models back to showing 38-40C and a night minimum in the mid 20s on Monday.

    On holiday, in East Anglia, with our Thai family next week. They'll feel quite at home!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,572
    Foxy said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    if Sunak did somehow win it would mean a permanent, de facto Tory split until his removal - so ongoing and brutal civil war between the vaguely rational and the ERG.
    Truss could quite easily start an actual war, so it does look like Mordaunt will be the new Tory leader. Then, over the next 18 months or so, we will learn that she is a lightweight fantasist who is prone to fibbing and who got the job because of who she isn't.
    Looking form the outside in, Badenoch seems to be the only coherent, intelligent candidate in the pack - but she is very far to the right on economics and so is likely to crash Tory support in the Red Wall. The culture war stuff will cement the 30% of diehards but it will only work beyond that with more a practical acknowledgement that most people think austerity has gone too far already.
    The Tories need smart people like Badenoch in high office, but to be successful electorally they probably don't need them in either the Treasury or Number 10.

    I think the Tories best chance is with PM.

    Sunak is hated for being realistic on government finances. Truss is too erratic and a poor speaker. Badenoch is too far to the right on economics and social policy and too simplistic. Any of those 3 puts Starmer in Number 10 in a couple of years time.

    PM may belly flop, but she does at least have the potential to unite the party and put up a strong fight. She is the only one who can retain a Tory majority IMO.
    I'd agree with that.
    It's possible she'll be a dud, as SO suggests, but there's a chance she might not.

    I note the business of pots of cash to be distributed by MPs, which I was the first to note, seems to be undergoing modification to a rather less dodgy local development funding idea. We'll see.
    Of all of the candidates, she seems best placed to triangulate on social policy. @Cyclefree might be right to call it dishonest, but I'm inclined to be more optimistic on the point. I've had my fill of culture warriors.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,332
    edited July 2022
    OldKingCole said:

    TimS said:

    Only Met we need to have confidence in over the next week is the Met Office.

    Pretty sure the current amber alert for extreme heat Sunday-Tuesday will be converted to red alert by tomorrow. Models back to showing 38-40C and a night minimum in the mid 20s on Monday.

    On holiday, in East Anglia, with our Thai family next week. They'll feel quite at home!
    My parents are in Southwold at the moment. According to them it is *much* cooler there. Monday is forecast to be 27 degrees in Southwold; 29 degrees on Tuesday. Here in Cambridge it is due to be 36 and 35. Quite a difference.

    It's amusing (and sweet) that I'm nearly fifty, and my mum's sending me emails giving me advice on how to keep cool in the heat. I guess parents never stop parenting...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,503
    DavidL said:

    JACK_W said:

    DavidL said:

    I still think too much is being read into the Yougov poll of members yesterday. Rishi has time to recover with the membership if he gets through and he is by far the best known of the remaining candidates.

    There is, however, a feeling that the Tories need a fresh start and it may be that being associated with Boris is fatal to Rishi. He has to explain what he would do differently as PM, not least in tax and economic policy and he has to do it quickly.

    Rishi is in a hard place. None of the other candidates will give him back the Treasury for the above reason. If he doesn't win he faces a serious demotion at best and the risk of being simply out.

    With hours to go until round 2 there is no time for Sunak to recover from the YouGov poll and the big mo(rdaunt) from the largely positive media coverage.

    We might muse on whether Sunak and some others will fall back as MP's look to reassess their positions as the PM4PM mood music becomes ever louder.

    Gisa job Penny they call ...
    Several people on here had mentioned Penny Mordaunt as the coming thing but to be honest she had made almost zero impact on me until this week and I am still far from clear what she believes in beyond motherhood and apple pie (not cake, of course). And now she is going to be PM? It is an astonishing gamble for a party actually in government.

    This could be good, it is certainly a fresh start for the party and a chance to walk awsy from Boris's lying but it could also be a complete disaster if she finds herself miles out of her depth. Her video had a nice choice of music but said incredibly little about her. This is reckless.

    Sunak has many flaws and made serious errors as Chancellor, especially latterly, but he is at least a known quantity. The Tories are in a febrile state and the speed of this process is not helping them draw breath. I really hope that Sunak makes it to the final 2 so that there is a safer pair of hands if PM turns out to be all puff.
    Yes, Sunak is a known quantity - "someone who has many flaws and made serious errors as Chancellor". lol....

    "Send in the next applicant would you please...."
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Foxy said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    if Sunak did somehow win it would mean a permanent, de facto Tory split until his removal - so ongoing and brutal civil war between the vaguely rational and the ERG.
    Truss could quite easily start an actual war, so it does look like Mordaunt will be the new Tory leader. Then, over the next 18 months or so, we will learn that she is a lightweight fantasist who is prone to fibbing and who got the job because of who she isn't.
    Looking form the outside in, Badenoch seems to be the only coherent, intelligent candidate in the pack - but she is very far to the right on economics and so is likely to crash Tory support in the Red Wall. The culture war stuff will cement the 30% of diehards but it will only work beyond that with more a practical acknowledgement that most people think austerity has gone too far already.
    The Tories need smart people like Badenoch in high office, but to be successful electorally they probably don't need them in either the Treasury or Number 10.

    I think the Tories best chance is with PM.

    Sunak is hated for being realistic on government finances. Truss is too erratic and a poor speaker. Badenoch is too far to the right on economics and social policy and too simplistic. Any of those 3 puts Starmer in Number 10 in a couple of years time.

    PM may belly flop, but she does at least have the potential to unite the party and put up a strong fight. She is the only one who can retain a Tory majority IMO.
    I tend to agree. She has a chance the others don't have because she is relatively unknown and not associated with Johnson - but she is also a huge risk as she is certainly inexperienced and pretty clearly a bit of fantasist and a proven liar. The ERG will be awaiting her first betrayal with baited breath.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,332
    SouthamObserver said:

    Foxy said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    if Sunak did somehow win it would mean a permanent, de facto Tory split until his removal - so ongoing and brutal civil war between the vaguely rational and the ERG.
    Truss could quite easily start an actual war, so it does look like Mordaunt will be the new Tory leader. Then, over the next 18 months or so, we will learn that she is a lightweight fantasist who is prone to fibbing and who got the job because of who she isn't.
    Looking form the outside in, Badenoch seems to be the only coherent, intelligent candidate in the pack - but she is very far to the right on economics and so is likely to crash Tory support in the Red Wall. The culture war stuff will cement the 30% of diehards but it will only work beyond that with more a practical acknowledgement that most people think austerity has gone too far already.
    The Tories need smart people like Badenoch in high office, but to be successful electorally they probably don't need them in either the Treasury or Number 10.

    I think the Tories best chance is with PM.

    Sunak is hated for being realistic on government finances. Truss is too erratic and a poor speaker. Badenoch is too far to the right on economics and social policy and too simplistic. Any of those 3 puts Starmer in Number 10 in a couple of years time.

    PM may belly flop, but she does at least have the potential to unite the party and put up a strong fight. She is the only one who can retain a Tory majority IMO.
    I tend to agree. She has a chance the others don't have because she is relatively unknown and not associated with Johnson - but she is also a huge risk as she is certainly inexperienced and pretty clearly a bit of fantasist and a proven liar. The ERG will be awaiting her first betrayal with baited breath.

    " pretty clearly a bit of fantasist and a proven liar."

    Ah, getting the attack lines in early. ;)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Why “woke” is no laughing matter to be airily waved away:

    https://unherd.com/2022/07/why-im-suing-survivors-network/
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,272
    Stuartinromford said:

    DavidL said:

    darkage said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    if Sunak did somehow win it would mean a permanent, de facto Tory split until his removal - so ongoing and brutal civil war between the vaguely rational and the ERG.
    Truss could quite easily start an actual war, so it does look like Mordaunt will be the new Tory leader. Then, over the next 18 months or so, we will learn that she is a lightweight fantasist who is prone to fibbing and who got the job because of who she isn't.
    Looking form the outside in, Badenoch seems to be the only coherent, intelligent candidate in the pack - but she is very far to the right on economics and so is likely to crash Tory support in the Red Wall. The culture war stuff will cement the 30% of diehards but it will only work beyond that with more a practical acknowledgement that most people think austerity has gone too far already.
    The Tories need smart people like Badenoch in high office, but to be successful electorally they probably don't need them in either the Treasury or Number 10.

    It is a difficult question. @pigeon made some good points yesterday about the collision course between Badenoch's ideas and the reality, which is that the Conservative party is largely elected by pensioners who vote to preserve their free money and self interest. It isn't that long ago since the Tories suffered an electoral disaster by trying to make mild reforms to adult social care. So it is one thing to have lots of brilliant ideas about having a small state and promoting personal responsibility, but there is an unchanging, underlying electoral reality that this is fundamentally inconsistent with. In a lot of ways Badenoch is a fantasy candidate - a sort of Corbyn moment for the tories.
    Yes there is a naive clarity about her thinking and solutions that has had insufficient contact with the messy reality. She needs a significant government department and to wrestle with reality for a few years. But her emergence has been interesting and she clearly has talent. Very possibly the leader after next if she can adapt.
    Not an easy pair of horses to ride, though.
    A lot of her appeal is the clarity that comes from ignoring the lumpy bits of reality. It's possible to talk in (good) simplistic headlines whilst governing in messy detail- Maggie at her best did it. But it could go horribly wrong.

    And there is the "in your heart you know she's right / but in your guts, you know she's nuts" thing.
    I think I’ve read 3 posts saying Badenoch is clever, but has the wrong answers. Maybe if she has the wrong answers, she’s not actually that clever…???
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,572
    MarqueeMark said:

    DavidL said:

    JACK_W said:

    DavidL said:

    I still think too much is being read into the Yougov poll of members yesterday. Rishi has time to recover with the membership if he gets through and he is by far the best known of the remaining candidates.

    There is, however, a feeling that the Tories need a fresh start and it may be that being associated with Boris is fatal to Rishi. He has to explain what he would do differently as PM, not least in tax and economic policy and he has to do it quickly.

    Rishi is in a hard place. None of the other candidates will give him back the Treasury for the above reason. If he doesn't win he faces a serious demotion at best and the risk of being simply out.

    With hours to go until round 2 there is no time for Sunak to recover from the YouGov poll and the big mo(rdaunt) from the largely positive media coverage.

    We might muse on whether Sunak and some others will fall back as MP's look to reassess their positions as the PM4PM mood music becomes ever louder.

    Gisa job Penny they call ...
    Several people on here had mentioned Penny Mordaunt as the coming thing but to be honest she had made almost zero impact on me until this week and I am still far from clear what she believes in beyond motherhood and apple pie (not cake, of course). And now she is going to be PM? It is an astonishing gamble for a party actually in government.

    This could be good, it is certainly a fresh start for the party and a chance to walk awsy from Boris's lying but it could also be a complete disaster if she finds herself miles out of her depth. Her video had a nice choice of music but said incredibly little about her. This is reckless.

    Sunak has many flaws and made serious errors as Chancellor, especially latterly, but he is at least a known quantity. The Tories are in a febrile state and the speed of this process is not helping them draw breath. I really hope that Sunak makes it to the final 2 so that there is a safer pair of hands if PM turns out to be all puff.
    Yes, Sunak is a known quantity - "someone who has many flaws and made serious errors as Chancellor". lol....

    "Send in the next applicant would you please...."
    Yes, you've a choice of losing badly (Truss), less badly (Sunak), or taking a gamble on someone inexperienced.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    The GOp continue to plumb the depths on the Ohio 10 year old rape victim story - the Ohio AG has confirmed they are looking at whether they can prosecute the doctor who reffered the victim for an abortion.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,672
    edited July 2022
    DavidL said:

    JACK_W said:

    DavidL said:

    I still think too much is being read into the Yougov poll of members yesterday. Rishi has time to recover with the membership if he gets through and he is by far the best known of the remaining candidates.

    There is, however, a feeling that the Tories need a fresh start and it may be that being associated with Boris is fatal to Rishi. He has to explain what he would do differently as PM, not least in tax and economic policy and he has to do it quickly.

    Rishi is in a hard place. None of the other candidates will give him back the Treasury for the above reason. If he doesn't win he faces a serious demotion at best and the risk of being simply out.

    With hours to go until round 2 there is no time for Sunak to recover from the YouGov poll and the big mo(rdaunt) from the largely positive media coverage.

    We might muse on whether Sunak and some others will fall back as MP's look to reassess their positions as the PM4PM mood music becomes ever louder.

    Gisa job Penny they call ...
    Several people on here had mentioned Penny Mordaunt as the coming thing but to be honest she had made almost zero impact on me until this week and I am still far from clear what she believes in beyond motherhood and apple pie (not cake, of course). And now she is going to be PM? It is an astonishing gamble for a party actually in government.

    This could be good, it is certainly a fresh start for the party and a chance to walk awsy from Boris's lying but it could also be a complete disaster if she finds herself miles out of her depth. Her video had a nice choice of music but said incredibly little about her. This is reckless.

    Sunak has many flaws and made serious errors as Chancellor, especially latterly, but he is at least a known quantity. The Tories are in a febrile state and the speed of this process is not helping them draw breath. I really hope that Sunak makes it to the final 2 so that there is a safer pair of hands if PM turns out to be all puff.
    PB itself over the last day or two has been reminiscent of what I imagine are (at least in not very remote history) the first course of one of the less reputable Oxford dining societies' dinners - lots of excitement and alcohol, and mutual food fighting. But next morning come the hangover and bill, and the so far unknown question of the disciplinary authorities, restaurateur's lawyers and police ...
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,985
    Speccie TV last night. James Forsyth (Rishi was best man at his wedding) looked a little white when his copresenter said the big mo was with PM. Forsyth then claimed 88 was beyond Rishi’s expectations in round 1.

    Interestingly he then said he thinks PM would make Leadsome Chancellor. Given his (undisclosed to viewers) links to Rishi, quite a naughty bit of mischief making there I thought. But it did raise a good question. Who would she really appoint as chancellor? I can imagine her giving the gig to Truss, for an all female downing st and in an attempt to unify the party’s wings.

    Any better guesses?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,672
    edited July 2022
    Alistair said:

    The GOp continue to plumb the depths on the Ohio 10 year old rape victim story - the Ohio AG has confirmed they are looking at whether they can prosecute the doctor who reffered the victim for an abortion.

    THis chap, who claimed it was probably all lies anyway? And then suddenly changed to feeling sorry for the little girl?

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jul/13/ohio-rape-abortion-indiana
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    JosiasJessop said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Foxy said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    if Sunak did somehow win it would mean a permanent, de facto Tory split until his removal - so ongoing and brutal civil war between the vaguely rational and the ERG.
    Truss could quite easily start an actual war, so it does look like Mordaunt will be the new Tory leader. Then, over the next 18 months or so, we will learn that she is a lightweight fantasist who is prone to fibbing and who got the job because of who she isn't.
    Looking form the outside in, Badenoch seems to be the only coherent, intelligent candidate in the pack - but she is very far to the right on economics and so is likely to crash Tory support in the Red Wall. The culture war stuff will cement the 30% of diehards but it will only work beyond that with more a practical acknowledgement that most people think austerity has gone too far already.
    The Tories need smart people like Badenoch in high office, but to be successful electorally they probably don't need them in either the Treasury or Number 10.

    I think the Tories best chance is with PM.

    Sunak is hated for being realistic on government finances. Truss is too erratic and a poor speaker. Badenoch is too far to the right on economics and social policy and too simplistic. Any of those 3 puts Starmer in Number 10 in a couple of years time.

    PM may belly flop, but she does at least have the potential to unite the party and put up a strong fight. She is the only one who can retain a Tory majority IMO.
    I tend to agree. She has a chance the others don't have because she is relatively unknown and not associated with Johnson - but she is also a huge risk as she is certainly inexperienced and pretty clearly a bit of fantasist and a proven liar. The ERG will be awaiting her first betrayal with baited breath.

    " pretty clearly a bit of fantasist and a proven liar."

    Ah, getting the attack lines in early. ;)

    Merely repeating what her Tory opponents are saying about her. The Mail is clearly gunning for her - and Lord Frost has now waded in. It will be a good test of her mettle.

  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,692
    DavidL said:

    JACK_W said:

    DavidL said:

    I still think too much is being read into the Yougov poll of members yesterday. Rishi has time to recover with the membership if he gets through and he is by far the best known of the remaining candidates.

    There is, however, a feeling that the Tories need a fresh start and it may be that being associated with Boris is fatal to Rishi. He has to explain what he would do differently as PM, not least in tax and economic policy and he has to do it quickly.

    Rishi is in a hard place. None of the other candidates will give him back the Treasury for the above reason. If he doesn't win he faces a serious demotion at best and the risk of being simply out.

    With hours to go until round 2 there is no time for Sunak to recover from the YouGov poll and the big mo(rdaunt) from the largely positive media coverage.

    We might muse on whether Sunak and some others will fall back as MP's look to reassess their positions as the PM4PM mood music becomes ever louder.

    Gisa job Penny they call ...
    Several people on here had mentioned Penny Mordaunt as the coming thing but to be honest she had made almost zero impact on me until this week and I am still far from clear what she believes in beyond motherhood and apple pie (not cake, of course). And now she is going to be PM? It is an astonishing gamble for a party actually in government.

    This could be good, it is certainly a fresh start for the party and a chance to walk awsy from Boris's lying but it could also be a complete disaster if she finds herself miles out of her depth. Her video had a nice choice of music but said incredibly little about her. This is reckless.

    Sunak has many flaws and made serious errors as Chancellor, especially latterly, but he is at least a known quantity. The Tories are in a febrile state and the speed of this process is not helping them draw breath. I really hope that Sunak makes it to the final 2 so that there is a safer pair of hands if PM turns out to be all puff.
    Astonishing gamble indeed.

    Not seen noted recently that the MP selectorate have changed massively since the last leadership election, 108 new MPs ranging from very comfortable with the Boris deal to true believers, plus all the other policy obsessions that go with that, and the loss of over 60 old timers and a variety of One Nation wets (including May deal supporters) through retirement and expulsion.

    Difficult to argue the MPs are a less bizarre selectorate than the membership.

    And seniority does not seem to be the biggest factor in calculations, only 2 relatively senior candidates survive. Rank the candidates by experience and see who has fallen, the bottom end of the field is remarkable intact:

    1. X Hunt
    2. Xx Patel
    3. Sunak
    4. Truss
    5. Xx Javid
    6. X Zahawi
    7. Xx Shapps
    8. Braverman
    9. Mordaunt
    10. Tugendhat
    11. Badenoch
    12. Xx Chisti


  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,985
    By the way the Mail has a salacious undercurrent in its reporting today, essentially that ex members of a swingers club are the hidden power brokers in the UK. For once the Mail prints something that’s credible!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Sunak is an astonishing lightweight.
    He only got the keys to number 11 because he agreed to let Dom have final say over his Spads.

    That's so lightweight he would blow away in a gentle breeze.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,336
    JosiasJessop said:

    OldKingCole said:

    TimS said:

    Only Met we need to have confidence in over the next week is the Met Office.

    Pretty sure the current amber alert for extreme heat Sunday-Tuesday will be converted to red alert by tomorrow. Models back to showing 38-40C and a night minimum in the mid 20s on Monday.

    On holiday, in East Anglia, with our Thai family next week. They'll feel quite at home!
    My parents are in Southwold at the moment. According to them it is *much* cooler there. Monday is forecast to be 27 degrees in Southwold; 29 degrees on Tuesday. Here in Cambridge it is due to be 36 and 35. Quite a difference.

    It's amusing (and sweet) that I'm nearly fifty, and my mum's sending me emails giving me advice on how to keep cool in the heat. I guess parents never stop parenting...
    Mr J., You are a little younger than my children; and yes we still worry about them!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,089
    JosiasJessop said:

    So a pro-Russian guy videoed a Russian ammo store in Donestsk. The Ukrainians geolocated the video, and allegedly gave it a deserved malletting.

    https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1547214705164435457

    The video is interesting for what is happening. Russian logistics is rumoured to be pants, with little automated or palletised handling of ammunition. And the video shows a dozen people moving stuff by hand into the back of a creaky old lorry. A dozen for a job that could be done by a couple and a telehandler or other vehicle if the Russians were actually organised.

    Now, there is a chance that this is unusual: due to breakdowns of machinery, spillages or broken palettes, there will always be some manual handling going on. But look at those shells on the ground: those are all going to have to be lugged by hand. And hey are on the ground *behind* something that looks suspiciously like a palette. And behind, small boxes that are relatively hard to lift by machine.

    This is so incredibly basic it's amazing that they haven't got it right.

    LOL. Another day, another big fire where once was a Russian ammo store. :D

    NATO ammunition is all pallets and containers, transferred by all-terrain fork-lifts and moved by all terrain container trucks. The smaller trucks containing the pallets, have cranes for unloading at the weapons, and in some cases (MLRS, for example), the weapons systems themselves have cranes for self-reloading. Almost nothing is done by hand. Because why would you, in 2022?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,348
    moonshine said:

    Speccie TV last night. James Forsyth (Rishi was best man at his wedding) looked a little white when his copresenter said the big mo was with PM. Forsyth then claimed 88 was beyond Rishi’s expectations in round 1.

    Interestingly he then said he thinks PM would make Leadsome Chancellor. Given his (undisclosed to viewers) links to Rishi, quite a naughty bit of mischief making there I thought. But it did raise a good question. Who would she really appoint as chancellor? I can imagine her giving the gig to Truss, for an all female downing st and in an attempt to unify the party’s wings.

    Any better guesses?

    It seems that the Tory Party has pretty much made up its mind without having stopped to ask such basic questions. Not particularly who would be Chancellor, but what would they do?
    We don't even have a basic steer thus far beyond the usual platitudes.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    edited July 2022
    MarqueeMark said:

    DavidL said:

    JACK_W said:

    DavidL said:

    I still think too much is being read into the Yougov poll of members yesterday. Rishi has time to recover with the membership if he gets through and he is by far the best known of the remaining candidates.

    There is, however, a feeling that the Tories need a fresh start and it may be that being associated with Boris is fatal to Rishi. He has to explain what he would do differently as PM, not least in tax and economic policy and he has to do it quickly.

    Rishi is in a hard place. None of the other candidates will give him back the Treasury for the above reason. If he doesn't win he faces a serious demotion at best and the risk of being simply out.

    With hours to go until round 2 there is no time for Sunak to recover from the YouGov poll and the big mo(rdaunt) from the largely positive media coverage.

    We might muse on whether Sunak and some others will fall back as MP's look to reassess their positions as the PM4PM mood music becomes ever louder.

    Gisa job Penny they call ...
    Several people on here had mentioned Penny Mordaunt as the coming thing but to be honest she had made almost zero impact on me until this week and I am still far from clear what she believes in beyond motherhood and apple pie (not cake, of course). And now she is going to be PM? It is an astonishing gamble for a party actually in government.

    This could be good, it is certainly a fresh start for the party and a chance to walk awsy from Boris's lying but it could also be a complete disaster if she finds herself miles out of her depth. Her video had a nice choice of music but said incredibly little about her. This is reckless.

    Sunak has many flaws and made serious errors as Chancellor, especially latterly, but he is at least a known quantity. The Tories are in a febrile state and the speed of this process is not helping them draw breath. I really hope that Sunak makes it to the final 2 so that there is a safer pair of hands if PM turns out to be all puff.
    Yes, Sunak is a known quantity - "someone who has many flaws and made serious errors as Chancellor". lol....

    "Send in the next applicant would you please...."
    An interesting, but probably unimportant perspective. I am currently in India. Sunak leading the pack has made the local news. People here are excited about him becoming PM. The reputational impact of a Sunak premiership could be significant. Probably the same with Kemi, albeit in a different part of the world. Mordaunt not so much.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,925
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Betfair next PM prices:-

    1.9 Penny Mordaunt 52%
    4.4 Rishi Sunak 22%
    5.7 Liz Truss 17%
    19.5 Kemi Badenoch 5%
    55 Tom Tugendhat
    130 Suella Braverman
    330 Dominic Raab

    Penny Mordaunt continues to harden at the front of Betfair's next PM market.

    1.8 Penny Mordaunt 56%
    4.5 Rishi Sunak 22%
    5.9 Liz Truss 17%
    23 Kemi Badenoch 4%
    55 Tom Tugendhat
    170 Suella Braverman
    400 Dominic Raab
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,672
    Pro_Rata said:

    DavidL said:

    JACK_W said:

    DavidL said:

    I still think too much is being read into the Yougov poll of members yesterday. Rishi has time to recover with the membership if he gets through and he is by far the best known of the remaining candidates.

    There is, however, a feeling that the Tories need a fresh start and it may be that being associated with Boris is fatal to Rishi. He has to explain what he would do differently as PM, not least in tax and economic policy and he has to do it quickly.

    Rishi is in a hard place. None of the other candidates will give him back the Treasury for the above reason. If he doesn't win he faces a serious demotion at best and the risk of being simply out.

    With hours to go until round 2 there is no time for Sunak to recover from the YouGov poll and the big mo(rdaunt) from the largely positive media coverage.

    We might muse on whether Sunak and some others will fall back as MP's look to reassess their positions as the PM4PM mood music becomes ever louder.

    Gisa job Penny they call ...
    Several people on here had mentioned Penny Mordaunt as the coming thing but to be honest she had made almost zero impact on me until this week and I am still far from clear what she believes in beyond motherhood and apple pie (not cake, of course). And now she is going to be PM? It is an astonishing gamble for a party actually in government.

    This could be good, it is certainly a fresh start for the party and a chance to walk awsy from Boris's lying but it could also be a complete disaster if she finds herself miles out of her depth. Her video had a nice choice of music but said incredibly little about her. This is reckless.

    Sunak has many flaws and made serious errors as Chancellor, especially latterly, but he is at least a known quantity. The Tories are in a febrile state and the speed of this process is not helping them draw breath. I really hope that Sunak makes it to the final 2 so that there is a safer pair of hands if PM turns out to be all puff.
    Astonishing gamble indeed.

    Not seen noted recently that the MP selectorate have changed massively since the last leadership election, 108 new MPs ranging from very comfortable with the Boris deal to true believers, plus all the other policy obsessions that go with that, and the loss of over 60 old timers and a variety of One Nation wets (including May deal supporters) through retirement and expulsion.

    Difficult to argue the MPs are a less bizarre selectorate than the membership.

    And seniority does not seem to be the biggest factor in calculations, only 2 relatively senior candidates survive. Rank the candidates by experience and see who has fallen, the bottom end of the field is remarkable intact:

    1. X Hunt
    2. Xx Patel
    3. Sunak
    4. Truss
    5. Xx Javid
    6. X Zahawi
    7. Xx Shapps
    8. Braverman
    9. Mordaunt
    10. Tugendhat
    11. Badenoch
    12. Xx Chisti


    That's an exzcellent point about the Johnsonian purge/transformation.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,089
    OldKingCole said:

    TimS said:

    Only Met we need to have confidence in over the next week is the Met Office.

    Pretty sure the current amber alert for extreme heat Sunday-Tuesday will be converted to red alert by tomorrow. Models back to showing 38-40C and a night minimum in the mid 20s on Monday.

    On holiday, in East Anglia, with our Thai family next week. They'll feel quite at home!
    Friends out here are finding at all rather amusing, that the typical British obsession with the weather now extends to the annual 30ºC week.

    Where I am sitting, it’s 40ºC outside at 11am. Thankfully not too humid today.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,503
    JosiasJessop said:

    "This morning we were due to be questioning the Home Secretary, Priti Patel
    @ukhomeoffice. She declined to attend our session. "

    https://twitter.com/CommonsHomeAffs/status/1547157819580981249

    The actions of someone not expecting to be long in the job...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,503
    Jonathan said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    DavidL said:

    JACK_W said:

    DavidL said:

    I still think too much is being read into the Yougov poll of members yesterday. Rishi has time to recover with the membership if he gets through and he is by far the best known of the remaining candidates.

    There is, however, a feeling that the Tories need a fresh start and it may be that being associated with Boris is fatal to Rishi. He has to explain what he would do differently as PM, not least in tax and economic policy and he has to do it quickly.

    Rishi is in a hard place. None of the other candidates will give him back the Treasury for the above reason. If he doesn't win he faces a serious demotion at best and the risk of being simply out.

    With hours to go until round 2 there is no time for Sunak to recover from the YouGov poll and the big mo(rdaunt) from the largely positive media coverage.

    We might muse on whether Sunak and some others will fall back as MP's look to reassess their positions as the PM4PM mood music becomes ever louder.

    Gisa job Penny they call ...
    Several people on here had mentioned Penny Mordaunt as the coming thing but to be honest she had made almost zero impact on me until this week and I am still far from clear what she believes in beyond motherhood and apple pie (not cake, of course). And now she is going to be PM? It is an astonishing gamble for a party actually in government.

    This could be good, it is certainly a fresh start for the party and a chance to walk awsy from Boris's lying but it could also be a complete disaster if she finds herself miles out of her depth. Her video had a nice choice of music but said incredibly little about her. This is reckless.

    Sunak has many flaws and made serious errors as Chancellor, especially latterly, but he is at least a known quantity. The Tories are in a febrile state and the speed of this process is not helping them draw breath. I really hope that Sunak makes it to the final 2 so that there is a safer pair of hands if PM turns out to be all puff.
    Yes, Sunak is a known quantity - "someone who has many flaws and made serious errors as Chancellor". lol....

    "Send in the next applicant would you please...."
    An interesting, but probably unimportant perspective. I am currently in India. Sunak leading the pack has made the local news. People here are excited about him becoming PM. The repetitional impact of a Sunak premiership could be significant. Probably the same with Kemi, albeit in a different part of the world. Mordaunt not so much.
    I was musing yesterday about making Rishi Foreign Secretary. That would make him far more visible in India than he has been as Chancellor..
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,336
    edited July 2022
    Sandpit said:

    OldKingCole said:

    TimS said:

    Only Met we need to have confidence in over the next week is the Met Office.

    Pretty sure the current amber alert for extreme heat Sunday-Tuesday will be converted to red alert by tomorrow. Models back to showing 38-40C and a night minimum in the mid 20s on Monday.

    On holiday, in East Anglia, with our Thai family next week. They'll feel quite at home!
    Friends out here are finding at all rather amusing, that the typical British obsession with the weather now extends to the annual 30ºC week.

    Where I am sitting, it’s 40ºC outside at 11am. Thankfully not too humid today.
    It's the lower humidity that makes my Thai family enjoy Britain now!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,672
    edited July 2022
    MarqueeMark said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    "This morning we were due to be questioning the Home Secretary, Priti Patel
    @ukhomeoffice. She declined to attend our session. "

    https://twitter.com/CommonsHomeAffs/status/1547157819580981249

    The actions of someone not expecting to be long in the job...
    You sure? It's the action of Mr Johnson with any of the devolved governments - except of course when he wanted something from the DUP. For years. And he expected to be loooong in the job.

    As for Ms Patel, note the tart reply from the committee that Ms P had herself claimed ot be 100% focussed on the job and not at all distracted by the leadership thing, oh no dear me.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited July 2022
    DavidL said:

    JACK_W said:

    DavidL said:

    I still think too much is being read into the Yougov poll of members yesterday. Rishi has time to recover with the membership if he gets through and he is by far the best known of the remaining candidates.

    There is, however, a feeling that the Tories need a fresh start and it may be that being associated with Boris is fatal to Rishi. He has to explain what he would do differently as PM, not least in tax and economic policy and he has to do it quickly.

    Rishi is in a hard place. None of the other candidates will give him back the Treasury for the above reason. If he doesn't win he faces a serious demotion at best and the risk of being simply out.

    With hours to go until round 2 there is no time for Sunak to recover from the YouGov poll and the big mo(rdaunt) from the largely positive media coverage.

    We might muse on whether Sunak and some others will fall back as MP's look to reassess their positions as the PM4PM mood music becomes ever louder.

    Gisa job Penny they call ...
    Several people on here had mentioned Penny Mordaunt as the coming thing but to be honest she had made almost zero impact on me until this week and I am still far from clear what she believes in beyond motherhood and apple pie (not cake, of course). And now she is going to be PM? It is an astonishing gamble for a party actually in government.

    This could be good, it is certainly a fresh start for the party and a chance to walk awsy from Boris's lying but it could also be a complete disaster if she finds herself miles out of her depth. Her video had a nice choice of music but said incredibly little about her. This is reckless.

    Sunak has many flaws and made serious errors as Chancellor, especially latterly, but he is at least a known quantity. The Tories are in a febrile state and the speed of this process is not helping them draw breath. I really hope that Sunak makes it to the final 2 so that there is a safer pair of hands if PM turns out to be all puff.
    " ... she had made almost zero impact on me until this week and I am still far from clear what she believes in beyond motherhood and apple pie (not cake, of course)."

    Well, of course, that is how you get elected.

    Penny stands for change.

    It is the same route as followed by Blair or Obama. Change, without being too definite.

    Of course, it is a breathtaking piece of chutzpah ... but to win the next election, the Tories need to stand for change.

    (The Tories could not normally hope to pull this stunt off -- but they are facing dull, ageing, unimaginative SKS).
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Not that I place much store by Lord Frost’s judgment:

    Wow. A devastating assessment of @PennyMordaunt from Lord Frost on @TalkTV just now. He says she simply wasn't up to the job as a minister and had to be moved on. Having worked with her closely he has "grave reservations" about her abilities. Crikey!

    https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1547474927091171329
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    MarqueeMark said:

    Jonathan said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    DavidL said:

    JACK_W said:

    DavidL said:

    I still think too much is being read into the Yougov poll of members yesterday. Rishi has time to recover with the membership if he gets through and he is by far the best known of the remaining candidates.

    There is, however, a feeling that the Tories need a fresh start and it may be that being associated with Boris is fatal to Rishi. He has to explain what he would do differently as PM, not least in tax and economic policy and he has to do it quickly.

    Rishi is in a hard place. None of the other candidates will give him back the Treasury for the above reason. If he doesn't win he faces a serious demotion at best and the risk of being simply out.

    With hours to go until round 2 there is no time for Sunak to recover from the YouGov poll and the big mo(rdaunt) from the largely positive media coverage.

    We might muse on whether Sunak and some others will fall back as MP's look to reassess their positions as the PM4PM mood music becomes ever louder.

    Gisa job Penny they call ...
    Several people on here had mentioned Penny Mordaunt as the coming thing but to be honest she had made almost zero impact on me until this week and I am still far from clear what she believes in beyond motherhood and apple pie (not cake, of course). And now she is going to be PM? It is an astonishing gamble for a party actually in government.

    This could be good, it is certainly a fresh start for the party and a chance to walk awsy from Boris's lying but it could also be a complete disaster if she finds herself miles out of her depth. Her video had a nice choice of music but said incredibly little about her. This is reckless.

    Sunak has many flaws and made serious errors as Chancellor, especially latterly, but he is at least a known quantity. The Tories are in a febrile state and the speed of this process is not helping them draw breath. I really hope that Sunak makes it to the final 2 so that there is a safer pair of hands if PM turns out to be all puff.
    Yes, Sunak is a known quantity - "someone who has many flaws and made serious errors as Chancellor". lol....

    "Send in the next applicant would you please...."
    An interesting, but probably unimportant perspective. I am currently in India. Sunak leading the pack has made the local news. People here are excited about him becoming PM. The repetitional impact of a Sunak premiership could be significant. Probably the same with Kemi, albeit in a different part of the world. Mordaunt not so much.
    I was musing yesterday about making Rishi Foreign Secretary. That would make him far more visible in India than he has been as Chancellor..
    That's not a bad shout. He could be quite effective. Obvs, that begs the Truss question. Surely not CoE?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,480
    DavidL said:

    JACK_W said:

    DavidL said:

    I still think too much is being read into the Yougov poll of members yesterday. Rishi has time to recover with the membership if he gets through and he is by far the best known of the remaining candidates.

    There is, however, a feeling that the Tories need a fresh start and it may be that being associated with Boris is fatal to Rishi. He has to explain what he would do differently as PM, not least in tax and economic policy and he has to do it quickly.

    Rishi is in a hard place. None of the other candidates will give him back the Treasury for the above reason. If he doesn't win he faces a serious demotion at best and the risk of being simply out.

    With hours to go until round 2 there is no time for Sunak to recover from the YouGov poll and the big mo(rdaunt) from the largely positive media coverage.

    We might muse on whether Sunak and some others will fall back as MP's look to reassess their positions as the PM4PM mood music becomes ever louder.

    Gisa job Penny they call ...
    Several people on here had mentioned Penny Mordaunt as the coming thing but to be honest she had made almost zero impact on me until this week and I am still far from clear what she believes in beyond motherhood and apple pie (not cake, of course). And now she is going to be PM? It is an astonishing gamble for a party actually in government.

    This could be good, it is certainly a fresh start for the party and a chance to walk awsy from Boris's lying but it could also be a complete disaster if she finds herself miles out of her depth. Her video had a nice choice of music but said incredibly little about her. This is reckless.

    Sunak has many flaws and made serious errors as Chancellor, especially latterly, but he is at least a known quantity. The Tories are in a febrile state and the speed of this process is not helping them draw breath. I really hope that Sunak makes it to the final 2 so that there is a safer pair of hands if PM turns out to be all puff.
    A known quantity when what you know about them is bad is no recommendation.

    Sunak is tied inextricably with Johnson, his policies and his behaviour. He stood by him until the point at which he saw some personal advantage in jumping ship. And if Johnson is primarily responsible for the moral and constitutional mess in which he has left this country then Sunak is primarily responsible for the financial mess.

    I don't particularly care about the Tories wining the next election. I do care about how they run the country in the 2 years or so before then and on that basis, specifically because of what we know about him, Sunak is not fit to be PM.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,370
    This is entertaining, in every sense...

    ‘The death of “Boris” the clown’, a work of genius by ⁦@EdwardDocx⁩, brilliantly illustrated by ⁦@jackmrhughes⁩ https://www.newstatesman.com/long-reads/2022/07/boris-johnson-the-death-of-the-clown
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    When Penny supported the “overwhelming anecdotal evidence” (sic) in favour of homeopathy:

    The 16 signatories provide an interesting list of MPs who don't believe in science. Some surprising names.

    https://twitter.com/ProfAliceS/status/1547474016784506881
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    edited July 2022
    CarlottaVance said:

    Not that I place much store by Lord Frost’s judgment:

    Wow. A devastating assessment of @PennyMordaunt from Lord Frost on @TalkTV just now. He says she simply wasn't up to the job as a minister and had to be moved on. Having worked with her closely he has "grave reservations" about her abilities. Crikey!

    https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1547474927091171329

    The views of a spectacular mediocrity who failed utterly at the only seriously important job he was ever given should not matter very much at all. The problem is that in the Conservative party they do.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    MarqueeMark said:

    Jonathan said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    DavidL said:

    JACK_W said:

    DavidL said:

    I still think too much is being read into the Yougov poll of members yesterday. Rishi has time to recover with the membership if he gets through and he is by far the best known of the remaining candidates.

    There is, however, a feeling that the Tories need a fresh start and it may be that being associated with Boris is fatal to Rishi. He has to explain what he would do differently as PM, not least in tax and economic policy and he has to do it quickly.

    Rishi is in a hard place. None of the other candidates will give him back the Treasury for the above reason. If he doesn't win he faces a serious demotion at best and the risk of being simply out.

    With hours to go until round 2 there is no time for Sunak to recover from the YouGov poll and the big mo(rdaunt) from the largely positive media coverage.

    We might muse on whether Sunak and some others will fall back as MP's look to reassess their positions as the PM4PM mood music becomes ever louder.

    Gisa job Penny they call ...
    Several people on here had mentioned Penny Mordaunt as the coming thing but to be honest she had made almost zero impact on me until this week and I am still far from clear what she believes in beyond motherhood and apple pie (not cake, of course). And now she is going to be PM? It is an astonishing gamble for a party actually in government.

    This could be good, it is certainly a fresh start for the party and a chance to walk awsy from Boris's lying but it could also be a complete disaster if she finds herself miles out of her depth. Her video had a nice choice of music but said incredibly little about her. This is reckless.

    Sunak has many flaws and made serious errors as Chancellor, especially latterly, but he is at least a known quantity. The Tories are in a febrile state and the speed of this process is not helping them draw breath. I really hope that Sunak makes it to the final 2 so that there is a safer pair of hands if PM turns out to be all puff.
    Yes, Sunak is a known quantity - "someone who has many flaws and made serious errors as Chancellor". lol....

    "Send in the next applicant would you please...."
    An interesting, but probably unimportant perspective. I am currently in India. Sunak leading the pack has made the local news. People here are excited about him becoming PM. The repetitional impact of a Sunak premiership could be significant. Probably the same with Kemi, albeit in a different part of the world. Mordaunt not so much.
    I was musing yesterday about making Rishi Foreign Secretary. That would make him far more visible in India than he has been as Chancellor..

    You can't give the Foreign Secretary job to a Remeainer ;-)

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,925
    edited July 2022
    moonshine said:

    Speccie TV last night. James Forsyth (Rishi was best man at his wedding) looked a little white when his copresenter said the big mo was with PM. Forsyth then claimed 88 was beyond Rishi’s expectations in round 1.

    Interestingly he then said he thinks PM would make Leadsome Chancellor. Given his (undisclosed to viewers) links to Rishi, quite a naughty bit of mischief making there I thought. But it did raise a good question. Who would she really appoint as chancellor? I can imagine her giving the gig to Truss, for an all female downing st and in an attempt to unify the party’s wings.

    Any better guesses?

    Look at the list of Penny Mordaunt's backers. Andrea Leadsom is by far the biggest name there. It is not so far fetched to believe Leadsom would have first dibs on jobs, and her age (and two previous unsuccessful runs) means she'd be no threat to Mordaunt herself.
    https://order-order.com/2022/07/14/whos-backing-who-thursday-morning-state-of-play/
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited July 2022
    As it seems likely it is either Rishi or Sunak or Liz, let me make an obvious point.

    Rishi, Lincoln College, Oxford, PPE
    Liz, Merton College, Oxford, PPE

    They need to go the same way as Jeremy Hunt (Magdalen Oxford, PPE) or David Cameron (Brasenose College, Oxford, PPE) or Ed Miliband (Corpus Christi College, Oxford, PPE).

    We know what these wankers are like. PPE = bluffers and duffers and bullshitters.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,272
    SouthamObserver said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Not that I place much store by Lord Frost’s judgment:

    Wow. A devastating assessment of @PennyMordaunt from Lord Frost on @TalkTV just now. He says she simply wasn't up to the job as a minister and had to be moved on. Having worked with her closely he has "grave reservations" about her abilities. Crikey!

    https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1547474927091171329

    The views of a spectacular mediocrity who failed utterly at the only seriously important job he was ever given should not matter very much at all. The problem is that in the Conservative party they do.

    Frost was always going to be more a Truss supporter, so I think this is just the competition become nastier than indicative of any change in expected support.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,089
    Nigelb said:

    Ukraine destroyed 5 Russian ammunition depots on 13 July - Odesa RegAdm. Spox

    ❌Luhansk
    ❌Chornobayivka, Kherson Oblast
    ❌Makiiivka, Donetsk Oblast
    ❌Chaplinka (district), Kherson Oblast
    ❌Horlivka, Donetsk Oblast

    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1547315735864770564

    Good to see especially, the progress in Kherson. That area is the target of much of the Ukranian activity, as they try and push the enemy back East of the river Dnieper.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,370
    YBarddCwsc said:

    As it seems likely it is either Rishi or Sunak or Liz, let me make an obvious point.

    Rishi, Lincoln College, Oxford, PPE
    Liz, Merton College, Oxford, PPE

    They need to go the same way as Jeremy Hunt (Magdalen Oxford, PPE) or David Cameron (Brasenose College, Oxford, PPE) or Ed Miliband (Corpus Christi College, Oxford, PPE).

    We know what these wankers are like. PPE = bluffers and duffers and bullshitters.

    I can't remember where I saw it, but someone commented on the diversity of the candidates.

    Rishi and Liz will be the first graduates from either of those Oxford colleges to be PM IIRC...
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    SouthamObserver said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Not that I place much store by Lord Frost’s judgment:

    Wow. A devastating assessment of @PennyMordaunt from Lord Frost on @TalkTV just now. He says she simply wasn't up to the job as a minister and had to be moved on. Having worked with her closely he has "grave reservations" about her abilities. Crikey!

    https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1547474927091171329

    The views of a spectacular mediocrity who failed utterly at the only seriously important job he was ever given should not matter very much at all. The problem is that in the Conservative party they do.

    Mourdant is an empty vessel into which Tories seem to be projecting all their hopes and dreams. She is apparently supposed to have charisma, but it appears to be an acquired or specialist taste.

    It's really quite weird to watch.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,089
    SouthamObserver said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Jonathan said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    DavidL said:

    JACK_W said:

    DavidL said:

    I still think too much is being read into the Yougov poll of members yesterday. Rishi has time to recover with the membership if he gets through and he is by far the best known of the remaining candidates.

    There is, however, a feeling that the Tories need a fresh start and it may be that being associated with Boris is fatal to Rishi. He has to explain what he would do differently as PM, not least in tax and economic policy and he has to do it quickly.

    Rishi is in a hard place. None of the other candidates will give him back the Treasury for the above reason. If he doesn't win he faces a serious demotion at best and the risk of being simply out.

    With hours to go until round 2 there is no time for Sunak to recover from the YouGov poll and the big mo(rdaunt) from the largely positive media coverage.

    We might muse on whether Sunak and some others will fall back as MP's look to reassess their positions as the PM4PM mood music becomes ever louder.

    Gisa job Penny they call ...
    Several people on here had mentioned Penny Mordaunt as the coming thing but to be honest she had made almost zero impact on me until this week and I am still far from clear what she believes in beyond motherhood and apple pie (not cake, of course). And now she is going to be PM? It is an astonishing gamble for a party actually in government.

    This could be good, it is certainly a fresh start for the party and a chance to walk awsy from Boris's lying but it could also be a complete disaster if she finds herself miles out of her depth. Her video had a nice choice of music but said incredibly little about her. This is reckless.

    Sunak has many flaws and made serious errors as Chancellor, especially latterly, but he is at least a known quantity. The Tories are in a febrile state and the speed of this process is not helping them draw breath. I really hope that Sunak makes it to the final 2 so that there is a safer pair of hands if PM turns out to be all puff.
    Yes, Sunak is a known quantity - "someone who has many flaws and made serious errors as Chancellor". lol....

    "Send in the next applicant would you please...."
    An interesting, but probably unimportant perspective. I am currently in India. Sunak leading the pack has made the local news. People here are excited about him becoming PM. The repetitional impact of a Sunak premiership could be significant. Probably the same with Kemi, albeit in a different part of the world. Mordaunt not so much.
    I was musing yesterday about making Rishi Foreign Secretary. That would make him far more visible in India than he has been as Chancellor..

    You can't give the Foreign Secretary job to a Remeainer ;-)
    Nor to someone said to have somewhat different views to the rest of the Cabinet, when it comes to supporting Ukraine.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,925
    Liz Truss officially launches her campaign this morning. A chance to unite the right behind her, or to flop badly.
  • TazTaz Posts: 19,905
    Talking of woke, as we tend to, amid the joy at the pictures from the JWST comes the revelation the telescope is homophobic.

    https://www.intomore.com/other/homophobic-telescope-reveals-first-hi-res-images-deep-space/
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,922
    dixiedean said:

    moonshine said:

    Speccie TV last night. James Forsyth (Rishi was best man at his wedding) looked a little white when his copresenter said the big mo was with PM. Forsyth then claimed 88 was beyond Rishi’s expectations in round 1.

    Interestingly he then said he thinks PM would make Leadsome Chancellor. Given his (undisclosed to viewers) links to Rishi, quite a naughty bit of mischief making there I thought. But it did raise a good question. Who would she really appoint as chancellor? I can imagine her giving the gig to Truss, for an all female downing st and in an attempt to unify the party’s wings.

    Any better guesses?

    It seems that the Tory Party has pretty much made up its mind without having stopped to ask such basic questions. Not particularly who would be Chancellor, but what would they do?
    We don't even have a basic steer thus far beyond the usual platitudes.
    Eh, seriously? You know her tastes on ancient nostalgic comedy, Cliff Richard songs old vs new, and statues, and that is not enough? Clearly one of those remainers who listens to experts too much.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,712
    kle4 said:

    Its at a s point with Rishi that even if he does really well in the final two anything he says or offers might get dismissed by the members as him acting desperately.

    MPs might yet drift away. Truss vs Mordaunt?

    That's possible, but Truss was also felt to have underwhelmed. She was only 10 MPs ahead of Badenoch on the first ballot.

    MPs may yet decide to send two candidates who are both fresh faces to the membership. Mordaunt v Badenoch.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,480
    Sandpit said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Jonathan said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    DavidL said:

    JACK_W said:

    DavidL said:

    I still think too much is being read into the Yougov poll of members yesterday. Rishi has time to recover with the membership if he gets through and he is by far the best known of the remaining candidates.

    There is, however, a feeling that the Tories need a fresh start and it may be that being associated with Boris is fatal to Rishi. He has to explain what he would do differently as PM, not least in tax and economic policy and he has to do it quickly.

    Rishi is in a hard place. None of the other candidates will give him back the Treasury for the above reason. If he doesn't win he faces a serious demotion at best and the risk of being simply out.

    With hours to go until round 2 there is no time for Sunak to recover from the YouGov poll and the big mo(rdaunt) from the largely positive media coverage.

    We might muse on whether Sunak and some others will fall back as MP's look to reassess their positions as the PM4PM mood music becomes ever louder.

    Gisa job Penny they call ...
    Several people on here had mentioned Penny Mordaunt as the coming thing but to be honest she had made almost zero impact on me until this week and I am still far from clear what she believes in beyond motherhood and apple pie (not cake, of course). And now she is going to be PM? It is an astonishing gamble for a party actually in government.

    This could be good, it is certainly a fresh start for the party and a chance to walk awsy from Boris's lying but it could also be a complete disaster if she finds herself miles out of her depth. Her video had a nice choice of music but said incredibly little about her. This is reckless.

    Sunak has many flaws and made serious errors as Chancellor, especially latterly, but he is at least a known quantity. The Tories are in a febrile state and the speed of this process is not helping them draw breath. I really hope that Sunak makes it to the final 2 so that there is a safer pair of hands if PM turns out to be all puff.
    Yes, Sunak is a known quantity - "someone who has many flaws and made serious errors as Chancellor". lol....

    "Send in the next applicant would you please...."
    An interesting, but probably unimportant perspective. I am currently in India. Sunak leading the pack has made the local news. People here are excited about him becoming PM. The repetitional impact of a Sunak premiership could be significant. Probably the same with Kemi, albeit in a different part of the world. Mordaunt not so much.
    I was musing yesterday about making Rishi Foreign Secretary. That would make him far more visible in India than he has been as Chancellor..

    You can't give the Foreign Secretary job to a Remeainer ;-)
    Nor to someone said to have somewhat different views to the rest of the Cabinet, when it comes to supporting Ukraine.
    Another reason why he should not be PM
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,370
    Taz said:

    Talking of woke, as we tend to, amid the joy at the pictures from the JWST comes the revelation the telescope is homophobic.

    https://www.intomore.com/other/homophobic-telescope-reveals-first-hi-res-images-deep-space/

    Nice try, NASA https://twitter.com/myunclesmemes/status/1547113976659472384/photo/1
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,672
    bondegezou said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Not that I place much store by Lord Frost’s judgment:

    Wow. A devastating assessment of @PennyMordaunt from Lord Frost on @TalkTV just now. He says she simply wasn't up to the job as a minister and had to be moved on. Having worked with her closely he has "grave reservations" about her abilities. Crikey!

    https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1547474927091171329

    The views of a spectacular mediocrity who failed utterly at the only seriously important job he was ever given should not matter very much at all. The problem is that in the Conservative party they do.

    Frost was always going to be more a Truss supporter, so I think this is just the competition become nastier than indicative of any change in expected support.
    Ah, they've started throwing beef bones and glasses rather than breadrolls.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,653
    Jonathan said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Not that I place much store by Lord Frost’s judgment:

    Wow. A devastating assessment of @PennyMordaunt from Lord Frost on @TalkTV just now. He says she simply wasn't up to the job as a minister and had to be moved on. Having worked with her closely he has "grave reservations" about her abilities. Crikey!

    https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1547474927091171329

    The views of a spectacular mediocrity who failed utterly at the only seriously important job he was ever given should not matter very much at all. The problem is that in the Conservative party they do.

    Mourdant is an empty vessel into which Tories seem to be projecting all their hopes and dreams. She is apparently supposed to have charisma, but it appears to be an acquired or specialist taste.

    It's really quite weird to watch.
    She is. And we don't really know much about Badenoch or Tugendhat. The only candidates whose positions are clear are Sunak, Truss and Braverman. And the latter two are mental.
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