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The papers are in no doubt about the Tory winner – politicalbetting.com

Today I wonder whether we could see withdrawals that would shorten this stage of the processing.
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1.9 Penny Mordaunt 52%
4.4 Rishi Sunak 22%
5.7 Liz Truss 17%
19.5 Kemi Badenoch 5%
55 Tom Tugendhat
130 Suella Braverman
330 Dominic Raab
There's reasoning for that, Sunak is a dead man walking unless his rivals undercut each other, but it still seems odd.
MPs might yet drift away. Truss vs Mordaunt?
Some of the more sensible MPs
Edit- bloody vanilla.
https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1547214705164435457
The video is interesting for what is happening. Russian logistics is rumoured to be pants, with little automated or palletised handling of ammunition. And the video shows a dozen people moving stuff by hand into the back of a creaky old lorry. A dozen for a job that could be done by a couple and a telehandler or other vehicle if the Russians were actually organised.
Now, there is a chance that this is unusual: due to breakdowns of machinery, spillages or broken palettes, there will always be some manual handling going on. But look at those shells on the ground: those are all going to have to be lugged by hand. And hey are on the ground *behind* something that looks suspiciously like a palette. And behind, small boxes that are relatively hard to lift by machine.
This is so incredibly basic it's amazing that they haven't got it right.
The media don’t understand that who you aren’t is as important as who you’re are. The MPs now have a feel for the lie of the land. The second round could throw up some interesting and unexpected changes.
The danger for Penny is that she now has a target on her back. That YouGov polling might focus a few minds.
Now we don't know if the above is correct. But IF it is, then there must be scope for that trend to continue.
Of course we know Hunt is supporting him and I would have thought he would ordinarily be expected to get at least about 10 of the 43 who voted for Hunt / Zahawi.
But if he stalls completely or let's say increases by no more than five votes then he is likely to grind to a halt.
❌Luhansk
❌Chornobayivka, Kherson Oblast
❌Makiiivka, Donetsk Oblast
❌Chaplinka (district), Kherson Oblast
❌Horlivka, Donetsk Oblast
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1547315735864770564
Badenoch still at 20. Mildly surprised. Tugendhat, just 3 MPs below her yesterday, was 46.
If Sunak's campaign falls away, do his supporters shift to Mordaunt? I imagine those who are backing him as the perceived favourite would probably do so.
Another day, five Russian ammo depots.
Impressive!
Totally off topic, but today's Worldle should be a shoo-in for anybody in the UK!
I suspect there are going to be some changes in the voting today; some people are going to change their vote on seeing there's a possible bandwagon on which to jump.
Truss could quite easily start an actual war, so it does look like Mordaunt will be the new Tory leader. Then, over the next 18 months or so, we will learn that she is a lightweight fantasist who is prone to fibbing and who got the job because of who she isn't.
Looking form the outside in, Badenoch seems to be the only coherent, intelligent candidate in the pack - but she is very far to the right on economics and so is likely to crash Tory support in the Red Wall. The culture war stuff will cement the 30% of diehards but it will only work beyond that with more a practical acknowledgement that most people think austerity has gone too far already.
The Tories need smart people like Badenoch in high office, but to be successful electorally they probably don't need them in either the Treasury or Number 10.
I do wonder what would've happened if the Home Office had suggested deporting him!
There is, however, a feeling that the Tories need a fresh start and it may be that being associated with Boris is fatal to Rishi. He has to explain what he would do differently as PM, not least in tax and economic policy and he has to do it quickly.
Rishi is in a hard place. None of the other candidates will give him back the Treasury for the above reason. If he doesn't win he faces a serious demotion at best and the risk of being simply out.
@ukhomeoffice. She declined to attend our session. "
https://twitter.com/CommonsHomeAffs/status/1547157819580981249
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/feb/24/leaked-reports-show-mo-farah-changed-account-to-us-investigators
You might be able to argue for, implement and embed small state Toryism when the economic times are good, it is an incredibly tough sell when the state is already creaking and people are feeling the pinch and actively noticing the degradation of the public sphere.
We might muse on whether Sunak and some others will fall back as MP's look to reassess their positions as the PM4PM mood music becomes ever louder.
Gisa job Penny they call ...
A lot of her appeal is the clarity that comes from ignoring the lumpy bits of reality. It's possible to talk in (good) simplistic headlines whilst governing in messy detail- Maggie at her best did it. But it could go horribly wrong.
And there is the "in your heart you know she's right / but in your guts, you know she's nuts" thing.
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1507056013245128716
If I had a cold heart I'd laugh.
Pretty sure the current amber alert for extreme heat Sunday-Tuesday will be converted to red alert by tomorrow. Models back to showing 38-40C and a night minimum in the mid 20s on Monday.
...& no one in Western military intelligence noticed that Russia has practiced "unilateral forklift disarmament" for 80 years, until Ukraine war tweets rubbed that fact in their faces🤦♂️👇
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1547443237518016514
Sunak is hated for being realistic on government finances. Truss is too erratic and a poor speaker. Badenoch is too far to the right on economics and social policy and too simplistic. Any of those 3 puts Starmer in Number 10 in a couple of years time.
PM may belly flop, but she does at least have the potential to unite the party and put up a strong fight. She is the only one who can retain a Tory majority IMO.
This could be good, it is certainly a fresh start for the party and a chance to walk awsy from Boris's lying but it could also be a complete disaster if she finds herself miles out of her depth. Her video had a nice choice of music but said incredibly little about her. This is reckless.
Sunak has many flaws and made serious errors as Chancellor, especially latterly, but he is at least a known quantity. The Tories are in a febrile state and the speed of this process is not helping them draw breath. I really hope that Sunak makes it to the final 2 so that there is a safer pair of hands if PM turns out to be all puff.
It's possible she'll be a dud, as SO suggests, but there's a chance she might not.
I note the business of pots of cash to be distributed by MPs, which I was the first to note, seems to be undergoing modification to a rather less dodgy local development funding idea. We'll see.
Of all of the candidates, she seems best placed to triangulate on social policy. @Cyclefree might be right to call it dishonest, but I'm inclined to be more optimistic on the point. I've had my fill of culture warriors.
It's amusing (and sweet) that I'm nearly fifty, and my mum's sending me emails giving me advice on how to keep cool in the heat. I guess parents never stop parenting...
"Send in the next applicant would you please...."
Ah, getting the attack lines in early.
https://unherd.com/2022/07/why-im-suing-survivors-network/
Interestingly he then said he thinks PM would make Leadsome Chancellor. Given his (undisclosed to viewers) links to Rishi, quite a naughty bit of mischief making there I thought. But it did raise a good question. Who would she really appoint as chancellor? I can imagine her giving the gig to Truss, for an all female downing st and in an attempt to unify the party’s wings.
Any better guesses?
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jul/13/ohio-rape-abortion-indiana
Not seen noted recently that the MP selectorate have changed massively since the last leadership election, 108 new MPs ranging from very comfortable with the Boris deal to true believers, plus all the other policy obsessions that go with that, and the loss of over 60 old timers and a variety of One Nation wets (including May deal supporters) through retirement and expulsion.
Difficult to argue the MPs are a less bizarre selectorate than the membership.
And seniority does not seem to be the biggest factor in calculations, only 2 relatively senior candidates survive. Rank the candidates by experience and see who has fallen, the bottom end of the field is remarkable intact:
1. X Hunt
2. Xx Patel
3. Sunak
4. Truss
5. Xx Javid
6. X Zahawi
7. Xx Shapps
8. Braverman
9. Mordaunt
10. Tugendhat
11. Badenoch
12. Xx Chisti
He only got the keys to number 11 because he agreed to let Dom have final say over his Spads.
That's so lightweight he would blow away in a gentle breeze.
NATO ammunition is all pallets and containers, transferred by all-terrain fork-lifts and moved by all terrain container trucks. The smaller trucks containing the pallets, have cranes for unloading at the weapons, and in some cases (MLRS, for example), the weapons systems themselves have cranes for self-reloading. Almost nothing is done by hand. Because why would you, in 2022?
We don't even have a basic steer thus far beyond the usual platitudes.
1.8 Penny Mordaunt 56%
4.5 Rishi Sunak 22%
5.9 Liz Truss 17%
23 Kemi Badenoch 4%
55 Tom Tugendhat
170 Suella Braverman
400 Dominic Raab
Where I am sitting, it’s 40ºC outside at 11am. Thankfully not too humid today.
I see a substantial and immediate switch back to the Conservatives, whether that will hold up under the creaking economy is questionable, but she is the Conservatives best shot at another five years from January 2025.
As for Ms Patel, note the tart reply from the committee that Ms P had herself claimed ot be 100% focussed on the job and not at all distracted by the leadership thing, oh no dear me.
Well, of course, that is how you get elected.
Penny stands for change.
It is the same route as followed by Blair or Obama. Change, without being too definite.
Of course, it is a breathtaking piece of chutzpah ... but to win the next election, the Tories need to stand for change.
(The Tories could not normally hope to pull this stunt off -- but they are facing dull, ageing, unimaginative SKS).
Wow. A devastating assessment of @PennyMordaunt from Lord Frost on @TalkTV just now. He says she simply wasn't up to the job as a minister and had to be moved on. Having worked with her closely he has "grave reservations" about her abilities. Crikey!
https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1547474927091171329
Sunak is tied inextricably with Johnson, his policies and his behaviour. He stood by him until the point at which he saw some personal advantage in jumping ship. And if Johnson is primarily responsible for the moral and constitutional mess in which he has left this country then Sunak is primarily responsible for the financial mess.
I don't particularly care about the Tories wining the next election. I do care about how they run the country in the 2 years or so before then and on that basis, specifically because of what we know about him, Sunak is not fit to be PM.
‘The death of “Boris” the clown’, a work of genius by @EdwardDocx, brilliantly illustrated by @jackmrhughes https://www.newstatesman.com/long-reads/2022/07/boris-johnson-the-death-of-the-clown
The 16 signatories provide an interesting list of MPs who don't believe in science. Some surprising names.
https://twitter.com/ProfAliceS/status/1547474016784506881
https://order-order.com/2022/07/14/whos-backing-who-thursday-morning-state-of-play/
Rishi, Lincoln College, Oxford, PPE
Liz, Merton College, Oxford, PPE
They need to go the same way as Jeremy Hunt (Magdalen Oxford, PPE) or David Cameron (Brasenose College, Oxford, PPE) or Ed Miliband (Corpus Christi College, Oxford, PPE).
We know what these wankers are like. PPE = bluffers and duffers and bullshitters.
Rishi and Liz will be the first graduates from either of those Oxford colleges to be PM IIRC...
It's really quite weird to watch.
https://www.intomore.com/other/homophobic-telescope-reveals-first-hi-res-images-deep-space/
MPs may yet decide to send two candidates who are both fresh faces to the membership. Mordaunt v Badenoch.