Truss figure sneaks under radar but the main take out is how powerful the right is in this ballot. Braverman and Badenoch still there with 72! But I fear Penny can’t make it now on that result.
Badenoch: 40 Braverman: 32 Truss: 50 Zahawi:25
147
I can’t see Penny getting near that. Nor Rishi. I can see Sunak finishing second to Truss and in danger from Penny.
Grim for Conservative moderates with so many votes for the right of the party.
Tell me I am wrong.
Decent chance of Rishi - Penny switchers changing things up IMHO.
If he underperforms again in the next round there is a risk he goes into a tailspin.
The really fascinating thing would be if any of the top candidates actually go down in the next round. Maybe because they didn't do as well as expected this time.
Truss perhaps. Even if she gets back votes on a later elimination. Certainly hard to see how. By contrast Sunak backers who didn't switch to Mordaunt don't have anywhere else to go, unless they come under pressure from associations.
181 votes, barely half, for the four candidates who had held a great office of state (including Zahawi, who had been Chancellor for less than a week). This does look like a strong sign that the MPs are looking for a fresh face. Suggests there won't be many transfers for Truss or Sunak.
Truss figure sneaks under radar but the main take out is how powerful the right is in this ballot. Braverman and Badenoch still there with 72! But I fear Penny can’t make it now on that result.
Badenoch: 40 Braverman: 32 Truss: 50 Zahawi:25
147
I can’t see Penny getting near that. Nor Rishi. I can see Sunak finishing second to Truss and in danger from Penny.
Grim for Conservative moderates with so many votes for the right of the party.
To me this underrates her chances, if she can overtake Truss she will be THE candidate of the right; and if she mkes the final she would beat Sunak and it would be close against Mordaunt
Totally agree. If I had loads of spare dough (which I don't) I'd be putting it all on her.
I think though she was wildly popular in the hustings we have had so far, it was on basis “she’s one for the future” and “needs a good cabinet post now” are two of the comments I copied, her votes this time are to ensure that is what she gets, as the right ramps up into stop Rishi stop Penny being last two, Badenoch vote, although not going down overall, but doesn’t go up due to vote switchers away from her.
That is how it actually works isn’t it?
I think a lot of the so called expert punditry have overlooked how it favours experience the longer it goes on.
No way can Tug or Braverman win this. So surely, even if they stay in the race, they will start leaching support now.
Tory MPs will realise only 4 can realistically win this and will vote accordingly. Either for their preferred one of the 4 or to try and prevent one of the 4 that they don't want making the final 2.
I think that's right, and now is probably the moment of maximum leverage for them to endorse.
Depends how much they want to influence the outcome, against ingratiating themselves with the eventual winner. Of course the latter might even turn out to be their preferred candidate.
I think the right wing of Tory MPs need to move swiftly to choosing their preferred candidate. Truss or Kemi. If they don't do so they risk getting neither into the final 2.
Maybe it was the MP who's not allowed to attend Parliament due to a police investigation. They could have voted by proxy but might have decided not to.
Just as well it's a secret ballot then. Although presumably the press were counting off every MP as they attended.
Did Boris imply that today was likely to his last PMQs
And that there would be a vote of no Confidence on Monday.
Is he planning something that allows him to call an election on Tuesday?
Surely not
He’s overseas next week apparently and then It’s Recess. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar..
What Boris said was: "the next leader of my party may be elected by acclamation, so it is possible that this will be our last confrontation over this Dispatch Box."
I think the right wing of Tory MPs need to move swiftly to choosing their preferred candidate. Truss or Kemi. If they don't do so they risk getting neither into the final 2.
I'd like Truss to have a good, exciting launch tomorrow, so she gets a bit higher in the betting and then I'll cash out of Truss. I've got some great bets on her but just don't see her winning now somehow.
To me this underrates her chances, if she can overtake Truss she will be THE candidate of the right; and if she mkes the final she would beat Sunak and it would be close against Mordaunt
What I was wondering is... how many votes do the 'right' actually have? The combined Braverman/Badenoch vote is not very impressive. Where is Badenoch going to get the additional votes from?
I expect Hunt to stand down from Parliment now, as soon as he has secured a better paying offer. His career there is clearly over. This is a humiliating result for the person that came second last time out.
I expect Hunt to stand down from Parliment now, as soon as he has secured a better paying offer. His career there is clearly over. This is a humiliating result for the person that came second last time out.
Agree. He’s not getting back into the Cabinet in a role he’d want so it’s the end for him.
181 votes, barely half, for the four candidates who had held a great office of state (including Zahawi, who had been Chancellor for less than a week). This does look like a strong sign that the MPs are looking for a fresh face. Suggests there won't be many transfers for Truss or Sunak.
Half the governing party's MPs don't support their own government's Cabinet!
To me this underrates her chances, if she can overtake Truss she will be THE candidate of the right; and if she mkes the final she would beat Sunak and it would be close against Mordaunt
Totally agree. If I had loads of spare dough (which I don't) I'd be putting it all on her.
I think though she was wildly popular in the hustings we have had so far, it was on basis “she’s one for the future” and “needs a good cabinet post now” are two of the comments I copied, her votes this time are to ensure that is what she gets, as the right ramps up into stop Rishi stop Penny being last two, Badenoch vote, although not going down overall, but doesn’t go up due to vote switchers away from her.
That is how it actually works isn’t it?
I think a lot of the so called expert punditry have overlooked how it favours experience the longer it goes on.
In a normal contest, yes - but many of the voters ie the Tory MPs are newbies themselves, especially the Red Wallers. The experience argument may have less sway with them. Arguably, Hunt's performance shows that.
I expect Hunt to stand down from Parliment now, as soon as he has secured a better paying offer. His career there is clearly over. This is a humiliating result for the person that came second last time out.
"...better paying offer..."? He doesn't really need the money does he?
What is it with greedy Tories and their lust for more money than they can ever spend?
To me this underrates her chances, if she can overtake Truss she will be THE candidate of the right; and if she mkes the final she would beat Sunak and it would be close against Mordaunt
What I was wondering is... how many votes do the 'right' actually have? The combined Braverman/Badenoch vote is not very impressive. Where is Badenoch going to get the additional votes from?
Truss, but I wouldn't be so sure that all of Badenoch's support is actually coming from the right of the party.
So my man Tugendhat is through and will hope to pick up most of Hunt’s supporters in the next round now he has been knocked out.
Sunak top, though not a great result for him, a smaller percentage of the parliamentary party in the first round than Davis and Cameron got in 2005, Portillo got in 2001 and Hague got in 1997 and far smaller than Johnson got in 2019 and May got in 2016. Solid scores for Mordaunt, Truss and Badenoch but Mordaunt in second will be most pleased
Ideal situation here is transfers from Hunt and Zahawi go Mordaunt, Sue Ellen drops out and backs Kemi and they squeeze Truss and Sunak out
So the Tories putting out a very fresh start, but inexperienced line up?
Is that how it really works though, from here?
It actually gets tribal and bitchy into the next phases doesn’t it?
I think Truss will be offering the moon to Suella and Kemi to try and stitch up a right wing final 2 for her Could end up Truss vs whomever of Rishi and Penny is transfer friendly
I expect Hunt to stand down from Parliment now, as soon as he has secured a better paying offer. His career there is clearly over. This is a humiliating result for the person that came second last time out.
Agree. He’s not getting back into the Cabinet in a role he’d want so it’s the end for him.
Maybe not. Hunt's recent book is about eliminating errors in the NHS and he chairs the select committee so it is possible he might want, and be offered, Health again.
Suella Braverman MP @SuellaBraverman Thank you to my colleagues who voted for me today, I'm pleased to be into the next round of voting. #Suella4Leader http://Suella4Leader.com
I expect Hunt to stand down from Parliment now, as soon as he has secured a better paying offer. His career there is clearly over. This is a humiliating result for the person that came second last time out.
"...better paying offer..."? He doesn't really need the money does he?
What is it with greedy Tories and their lust for more money than they can ever spend?
I had no idea that he was worth that much $265m? Wow.
Will any candidate get fewer votes in the next round than they did in the first round?
I would think Braverman if she doesn't drop out herself. MPs are not famous for going down with sinking ships!
She probably gets to choose which of Truss and Badenoch gets through the next round if she drops out now. Is that something she'd want to do, or to avoid ?
(I note Zahawi is choosing not to endorse anyone.)
Worry for Sunak is where the transfers come now to get to 122.
Hunt, TT would seem to be good mines of votes but PM has the momentum and if you’re an MP keen to stop the right winning then your best chance is backing her.
I suspect in the next round Penny tops the ballot, and then cannibalises Rishis vote before or at the final round.
I expect Hunt to stand down from Parliment now, as soon as he has secured a better paying offer. His career there is clearly over. This is a humiliating result for the person that came second last time out.
"...better paying offer..."? He doesn't really need the money does he?
What is it with greedy Tories and their lust for more money than they can ever spend?
I had no idea that he was worth that much $265m? Wow.
GCSE revision books? I probably contributed to his wealth.
I expect Hunt to stand down from Parliment now, as soon as he has secured a better paying offer. His career there is clearly over. This is a humiliating result for the person that came second last time out.
"...better paying offer..."? He doesn't really need the money does he?
What is it with greedy Tories and their lust for more money than they can ever spend?
I had no idea that he was worth that much $265m? Wow.
That's $260m more than I could ever find a way to spend or need.
Wow! I am picking up pressure tonight from ERG sources for Suella Braverman, Liz Truss and Kemi Badenoch to merge campaigns and blow Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt out of the water.
Worry for Sunak is where the transfers come now to get to 122.
Hunt, TT would seem to be good mines of votes but PM has the momentum and if you’re an MP keen to stop the right winning then your best chance is backing her.
I suspect in the next round Penny tops the ballot, and then cannibalises Rishis vote before or at the final round.
PM vs Truss/Kemi.
I’d like it to be PM vs Kemi. More so to rub it in Jo Maugham’s face, but that would be a refreshing contest
Can somebody explain the poll which shows Starmer beating Penny by 15 points, this seems totally out of step
I can easily explain it.
The polls and betting markets are all over the place at the moment. We are flying blind trusting our instincts.
Not entirely. We do have historical precedents what tends to happen next - if the right are as powerful as they are in this ballot they will easily get one on the list for the equally right wing membership. People holding big offices of state tend to be preferred over those with less experience when push comes to shove. Etc And then Premiers tend to come from Oxford?
LONDON — Conservative leadership hopeful Liz Truss was given detailed warnings by her own officials in 2020 that post-Brexit trade pacts with Australia and New Zealand would shrink the country's farming and food sectors, newly obtained government figures reveal.
Will any candidate get fewer votes in the next round than they did in the first round?
I would think Braverman if she doesn't drop out herself. MPs are not famous for going down with sinking ships!
She probably gets to choose which of Truss and Badenoch gets through the next round if she drops out now. Is that something she'd want to do, or to avoid ?
(I note Zahawi is choosing not to endorse anyone.)
For which I am sure all the campaigns are duly grateful. Won't get him a job in the next government though.
LONDON — Conservative leadership hopeful Liz Truss was given detailed warnings by her own officials in 2020 that post-Brexit trade pacts with Australia and New Zealand would shrink the country's farming and food sectors, newly obtained government figures reveal.
Worry for Sunak is where the transfers come now to get to 122.
Hunt, TT would seem to be good mines of votes but PM has the momentum and if you’re an MP keen to stop the right winning then your best chance is backing her.
I suspect in the next round Penny tops the ballot, and then cannibalises Rishis vote before or at the final round.
PM vs Truss/Kemi.
I’d like it to be PM vs Kemi. More so to rub it in Jo Maugham’s face, but that would be a refreshing contest
LONDON — Conservative leadership hopeful Liz Truss was given detailed warnings by her own officials in 2020 that post-Brexit trade pacts with Australia and New Zealand would shrink the country's farming and food sectors, newly obtained government figures reveal.
Wow! I am picking up pressure tonight from ERG sources for Suella Braverman, Liz Truss and Kemi Badenoch to merge campaigns and blow Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt out of the water. #ToryLeadershipRace
Wow! I am picking up pressure tonight from ERG sources for Suella Braverman, Liz Truss and Kemi Badenoch to merge campaigns and blow Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt out of the water.
The problem is I don’t think they’re one homogenous blob. Liz Truss is running on the experienced cabinet minister/Brexiteer shtick. Kemi isn’t noticeably talking about Brexit at all and is running on the fresh face/time for a change angle.
You could quite easily see transfers from Kemi to Penny, for instance.
Wow! I am picking up pressure tonight from ERG sources for Suella Braverman, Liz Truss and Kemi Badenoch to merge campaigns and blow Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt out of the water. #ToryLeadershipRace
I expect Hunt to stand down from Parliment now, as soon as he has secured a better paying offer. His career there is clearly over. This is a humiliating result for the person that came second last time out.
"...better paying offer..."? He doesn't really need the money does he?
What is it with greedy Tories and their lust for more money than they can ever spend?
I had no idea that he was worth that much $265m? Wow.
Where does that come from? The fact that it is in dollars makes me think one of these "net worth" sites has mixed him up with an American near namesake. Hunt was generally reckoned to have made £15 million-ish from Hotcourses so unless he invested in Bitcoin and got out at the top...
Can somebody explain the poll which shows Starmer beating Penny by 15 points, this seems totally out of step
Name recognition.
On a net approval basis the Sunday Times had Mordaunt well ahead of Starmer and Davey in the blue wall seats, although Starmer led all Tory candidates in the red wall seats
Can somebody explain the poll which shows Starmer beating Penny by 15 points, this seems totally out of step
Name recognition.
On a net approval basis the Sunday Times had Mordaunt well ahead of Starmer and Davey in the blue wall seats, although Starmer led all Tory candidates in the red wall seats
Unfathomable that dozens of MPs actually supported Braverman. These people should be in care, not the Commons.
One naturally suspects that this is the work of the diamond hard Brexiteers, but she's not going to progress much further. Will be fascinating to see whether a bidding war over who can talk toughest to Brussels now breaks out between the Truss and Badenoch camps.
I expect Hunt to stand down from Parliment now, as soon as he has secured a better paying offer. His career there is clearly over. This is a humiliating result for the person that came second last time out.
I doubt it will be all about the money for him, he made £14 million in 2017 from the sale of a business he owned before going in to politics. I would imagine that, as he's stuck with politics for 17 years, there is no better place to be than Parliament.
LONDON — Conservative leadership hopeful Liz Truss was given detailed warnings by her own officials in 2020 that post-Brexit trade pacts with Australia and New Zealand would shrink the country's farming and food sectors, newly obtained government figures reveal.
Labour? According to the story, "The data was obtained through a Freedom of Information request lodged by former Shadow Trade Secretary Emily Thornberry and shared exclusively with POLITICO"
Wow! I am picking up pressure tonight from ERG sources for Suella Braverman, Liz Truss and Kemi Badenoch to merge campaigns and blow Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt out of the water. #ToryLeadershipRace
hmmmm
What will Truss offer Braverman and Badenoch? 🤔 Home Secretary for Braverman? Which office is suitable for Badenoch? Education? She is so much like Gove, and he was there.
Wow! I am picking up pressure tonight from ERG sources for Suella Braverman, Liz Truss and Kemi Badenoch to merge campaigns and blow Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt out of the water. #ToryLeadershipRace
hmmmm
ERG sources are, and always have been, time wasting moaners.
No doubt there's some overlap, but voters don't transfer perfectly in elections, and that will apply to Tory MPs too. Particularly when part of their consideration is character and public appeal.
Wow! I am picking up pressure tonight from ERG sources for Suella Braverman, Liz Truss and Kemi Badenoch to merge campaigns and blow Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt out of the water. #ToryLeadershipRace
hmmmm
Do they not realise that two qualify? They haven't got the votes to blow both frontrunners out of the water.
Wow! I am picking up pressure tonight from ERG sources for Suella Braverman, Liz Truss and Kemi Badenoch to merge campaigns and blow Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt out of the water. #ToryLeadershipRace
hmmmm
What will Truss offer Braverman and Badenoch? 🤔 Home Secretary for Braverman? Which office is suitable for Badenoch? Education? She is so much like Gove, and he was there.
I hope Truss sticks to talking about cheese rather than being in the position to offer too cabinet roles
I expect Hunt to stand down from Parliment now, as soon as he has secured a better paying offer. His career there is clearly over. This is a humiliating result for the person that came second last time out.
"...better paying offer..."? He doesn't really need the money does he?
What is it with greedy Tories and their lust for more money than they can ever spend?
I had no idea that he was worth that much $265m? Wow.
Source?
He only made £15m from selling his business in 2017 iirc.
I do understand the appeal of Kemi Badenoch. However, if I were a Tory, I'd be concerned that she has the backing of Toby Young and Laurence Fox - not Tories, I know, but pretty extreme in their views. Labour will have noted this, just in case.
Mind you, Truss having the backing of Nadsy and Moggsy isn't much better.
Over the years it's been posted on here many times (including by Nick P) that every MP will have quite a few personal friends from right across the political spectrum of their party.
So when you drop out, these personal friends will not automatically switch to another candidate with similar political views.
Ideal situation here is transfers from Hunt and Zahawi go Mordaunt, Sue Ellen drops out and backs Kemi and they squeeze Truss and Sunak out
So the Tories putting out a very fresh start, but inexperienced line up?
Is that how it really works though, from here?
It actually gets tribal and bitchy into the next phases doesn’t it?
I think Truss will be offering the moon to Suella and Kemi to try and stitch up a right wing final 2 for her Could end up Truss vs whomever of Rishi and Penny is transfer friendly
I agree Woolie. Truss top by about 15, Sunak and Penny very close to each other for the member vote.
Hunt played it wrong when he turned down Foreign Sec under Boris. His branding as the sensible alternative would have been stronger than outside of cabinet, where he has become yesterday’s man. A shame as his Twitter just gave a pretty gracious statement.
As far as I can see, there’s definitely enough votes in the mix for one of Truss, Braverman and Badenoch to make the final two, unless PM picks up more of their transfers than you’d think.
I do understand the appeal of Kemi Badenoch. However, if I were a Tory, I'd be concerned that she has the backing of Toby Young and Laurence Fox - not Tories, I know, but pretty extreme in their views. Labour will have noted this, just in case.
Mind you, Truss having the backing of Nadsy and Moggsy isn't much better.
It's the candidate who matters, not who supports them.
Can somebody explain the poll which shows Starmer beating Penny by 15 points, this seems totally out of step
Name recognition.
On a net approval basis the Sunday Times had Mordaunt well ahead of Starmer and Davey in the blue wall seats, although Starmer led all Tory candidates in the red wall seats
Comments
If he underperforms again in the next round there is a risk he goes into a tailspin.
That is how it actually works isn’t it?
I think a lot of the so called expert punditry have overlooked how it favours experience the longer it goes on.
Depends how much they want to influence the outcome, against ingratiating themselves with the eventual winner. Of course the latter might even turn out to be their preferred candidate.
If he doesn't win, because of that, then as much as it's a shame not to win my bet, I'd have to say politically ... Good.
Is that how it really works though, from here?
It actually gets tribal and bitchy into the next phases doesn’t it?
Politics wouldn’t be called politics if politics wasn’t involved?
As we do the maths and so sure what happens, someone could gaff, some killer smear could be unleashed.
They are in a goldfish bowl, something minor headline 12 months ago, or sat in a book 12 years, might be splashed over the weekend 🥺
What is it with greedy Tories and their lust for more money than they can ever spend?
Sunak top, though not a great result for him, a smaller percentage of the parliamentary party in the first round than Davis and Cameron got in 2005, Portillo got in 2001 and Hague got in 1997 and far smaller than Johnson got in 2019 and May got in 2016. Solid scores for Mordaunt, Truss and Badenoch but Mordaunt in second will be most pleased
Could end up Truss vs whomever of Rishi and Penny is transfer friendly
Grace land’s great btw.
https://twitter.com/SuellaBraverman/status/1547258019679019011
Suella Braverman MP
@SuellaBraverman
Thank you to my colleagues who voted for me today, I'm pleased to be into the next round of voting.
#Suella4Leader
http://Suella4Leader.com
Is that something she'd want to do, or to avoid ?
(I note Zahawi is choosing not to endorse anyone.)
Hunt, TT would seem to be good mines of votes but PM has the momentum and if you’re an MP keen to stop the right winning then your best chance is backing her.
I suspect in the next round Penny tops the ballot, and then cannibalises Rishis vote before or at the final round.
PM vs Truss/Kemi.
#BBCPanorama
The Downfall of Boris Johnson is on @BBCOne at 8pm
https://bbc.in/3aDuPsK
https://twitter.com/BBCPanorama/status/1547259845426008065
Wait until she hears about her role in the coup to replace Theresa May.
The polls and betting markets are all over the place at the moment. We are flying blind trusting our instincts.
Not entirely. We do have historical precedents what tends to happen next - if the right are as powerful as they are in this ballot they will easily get one on the list for the equally right wing membership. People holding big offices of state tend to be preferred over those with less experience when push comes to shove. Etc And then Premiers tend to come from Oxford?
LONDON — Conservative leadership hopeful Liz Truss was given detailed warnings by her own officials in 2020 that post-Brexit trade pacts with Australia and New Zealand would shrink the country's farming and food sectors, newly obtained government figures reveal.
https://www.politico.eu/article/liz-truss-uk-food-sector-australia-new-zealand-trade-deal/
Wow! I am picking up pressure tonight from ERG sources for Suella Braverman, Liz Truss and Kemi Badenoch to merge campaigns and blow Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt out of the water. #ToryLeadershipRace
hmmmm
You could quite easily see transfers from Kemi to Penny, for instance.
On a net approval basis the Sunday Times had Mordaunt well ahead of Starmer and Davey in the blue wall seats, although Starmer led all Tory candidates in the red wall seats
No doubt there's some overlap, but voters don't transfer perfectly in elections, and that will apply to Tory MPs too. Particularly when part of their consideration is character and public appeal.
He only made £15m from selling his business in 2017 iirc.
$265m sounds like a small exaggeration.
Mind you, Truss having the backing of Nadsy and Moggsy isn't much better.
Over the years it's been posted on here many times (including by Nick P) that every MP will have quite a few personal friends from right across the political spectrum of their party.
So when you drop out, these personal friends will not automatically switch to another candidate with similar political views.
For Sunak, Portillo says hi 🫢
I know that many PB Tories have taken to calling her "Penny" but you don't have to, no more than you had to call Corbyn "Jeremy".
Personally I just use surnames across the board.
As far as I can see, there’s definitely enough votes in the mix for one of Truss, Braverman and Badenoch to make the final two, unless PM picks up more of their transfers than you’d think.
Really unpleasant to have to deal with people with such hate driven attitudes