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How the betting markets reacted to the 1st round result – politicalbetting.com

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  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 3,367

    Truss figure sneaks under radar but the main take out is how powerful the right is in this ballot. Braverman and Badenoch still there with 72! But I fear Penny can’t make it now on that result.

    Badenoch: 40
    Braverman: 32
    Truss: 50
    Zahawi:25

    147

    I can’t see Penny getting near that. Nor Rishi. I can see Sunak finishing second to Truss and in danger from Penny.

    Grim for Conservative moderates with so many votes for the right of the party.

    Tell me I am wrong.

    Decent chance of Rishi - Penny switchers changing things up IMHO.

    If he underperforms again in the next round there is a risk he goes into a tailspin.

  • EPGEPG Posts: 4,637
    Andy_JS said:

    The really fascinating thing would be if any of the top candidates actually go down in the next round. Maybe because they didn't do as well as expected this time.

    Truss perhaps. Even if she gets back votes on a later elimination. Certainly hard to see how. By contrast Sunak backers who didn't switch to Mordaunt don't have anywhere else to go, unless they come under pressure from associations.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 56,044

    Whisper it, but there must be a decent chance that we get Penny v Kemi.

    Mordaunt is “the one to stop” - so who would be best placed to do that?
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,466

    Truss figure sneaks under radar but the main take out is how powerful the right is in this ballot. Braverman and Badenoch still there with 72! But I fear Penny can’t make it now on that result.

    Badenoch: 40
    Braverman: 32
    Truss: 50
    Zahawi:25

    147

    I can’t see Penny getting near that. Nor Rishi. I can see Sunak finishing second to Truss and in danger from Penny.

    Grim for Conservative moderates with so many votes for the right of the party.

    Tell me I am wrong.

    There aren't any left.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,513
    181 votes, barely half, for the four candidates who had held a great office of state (including Zahawi, who had been Chancellor for less than a week). This does look like a strong sign that the MPs are looking for a fresh face. Suggests there won't be many transfers for Truss or Sunak.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,328
    It's PM for PM unless Kemi (another first name politician after Boris and Nicola?) makes it to the televised debates and does a Trump.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 53,486
    Farooq said:

    Truss figure sneaks under radar but the main take out is how powerful the right is in this ballot. Braverman and Badenoch still there with 72! But I fear Penny can’t make it now on that result.

    Badenoch: 40
    Braverman: 32
    Truss: 50
    Zahawi:25

    147

    I can’t see Penny getting near that. Nor Rishi. I can see Sunak finishing second to Truss and in danger from Penny.

    Grim for Conservative moderates with so many votes for the right of the party.

    Tell me I am wrong.

    There aren't any left.
    There's few in the Lords.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,022
    edited July 13
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    BETTING VALUE?

    WTF is up with the Badenoch odds?

    She is 20/1 in old money and 23 on Betfair

    To me this underrates her chances, if she can overtake Truss she will be THE candidate of the right; and if she mkes the final she would beat Sunak and it would be close against Mordaunt

    Totally agree. If I had loads of spare dough (which I don't) I'd be putting it all on her.
    I think though she was wildly popular in the hustings we have had so far, it was on basis “she’s one for the future” and “needs a good cabinet post now” are two of the comments I copied, her votes this time are to ensure that is what she gets, as the right ramps up into stop Rishi stop Penny being last two, Badenoch vote, although not going down overall, but doesn’t go up due to vote switchers away from her.

    That is how it actually works isn’t it?

    I think a lot of the so called expert punditry have overlooked how it favours experience the longer it goes on.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 41,813

    tlg86 said:

    TT not pulling out:

    https://twitter.com/TomTugendhat/status/1547251114667642881

    Tom Tugendhat
    @TomTugendhat
    This is a fantastic result.

    I’m delighted to be going through to the next round with the momentum we need to change this country for the better.

    Our country needs #ACleanStart

    Please give him his full title of TIT.
    Rumours he has offered Hunt deputy TIT.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730
    edited July 13
    stjohn said:

    No way can Tug or Braverman win this. So surely, even if they stay in the race, they will start leaching support now.

    Tory MPs will realise only 4 can realistically win this and will vote accordingly. Either for their preferred one of the 4 or to try and prevent one of the 4 that they don't want making the final 2.

    I think that's right, and now is probably the moment of maximum leverage for them to endorse.

    Depends how much they want to influence the outcome, against ingratiating themselves with the eventual winner. Of course the latter might even turn out to be their preferred candidate.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 4,637

    Can somebody explain the poll which shows Starmer beating Penny by 15 points, this seems totally out of step

    Tory members love her but 89% of the country don't care.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,466
    Sandpit said:

    Toby Young on GBNews ramping Kemi. She’s got a lot of momentum behind her.

    He's taking a break from ramping eugenics then
  • It seems like Sunak may have self-destructed his chances when he raised NI. If he hadn't done that, he'd probably be winning this I suspect.

    If he doesn't win, because of that, then as much as it's a shame not to win my bet, I'd have to say politically ... Good.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 2,244

    eek said:

    Just thinking for 2 seconds.

    Did Boris imply that today was likely to his last PMQs

    And that there would be a vote of no Confidence on Monday.

    Is he planning something that allows him to call an election on Tuesday?

    Surely not
    He’s overseas next week apparently and then It’s Recess. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar..

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,489
    Will any candidate get fewer votes in the next round than they did in the first round?
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,560
    I think the right wing of Tory MPs need to move swiftly to choosing their preferred candidate. Truss or Kemi. If they don't do so they risk getting neither into the final 2.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 22,323
    Andy_JS said:

    Was Boris the 358th MP?

    Maybe it was the MP who's not allowed to attend Parliament due to a police investigation. They could have voted by proxy but might have decided not to.
    Just as well it's a secret ballot then. Although presumably the press were counting off every MP as they attended.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,324

    tlg86 said:

    TT not pulling out:

    https://twitter.com/TomTugendhat/status/1547251114667642881

    Tom Tugendhat
    @TomTugendhat
    This is a fantastic result.

    I’m delighted to be going through to the next round with the momentum we need to change this country for the better.

    Our country needs #ACleanStart

    Please give him his full title of TIT.
    Surely Tom T has earned a top post in the next cabinet. Would make a great foreign sec (or defence for that matter)
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,022

    Ideal situation here is transfers from Hunt and Zahawi go Mordaunt, Sue Ellen drops out and backs Kemi and they squeeze Truss and Sunak out

    So the Tories putting out a very fresh start, but inexperienced line up?

    Is that how it really works though, from here?

    It actually gets tribal and bitchy into the next phases doesn’t it?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,479
    biggles said:

    eek said:

    Just thinking for 2 seconds.

    Did Boris imply that today was likely to his last PMQs

    And that there would be a vote of no Confidence on Monday.

    Is he planning something that allows him to call an election on Tuesday?

    Surely not
    He’s overseas next week apparently and then It’s Recess. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar..

    What Boris said was: "the next leader of my party may be elected by acclamation, so it is possible that this will be our last confrontation over this Dispatch Box."
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 18,313
    stjohn said:

    I think the right wing of Tory MPs need to move swiftly to choosing their preferred candidate. Truss or Kemi. If they don't do so they risk getting neither into the final 2.

    I'd like Truss to have a good, exciting launch tomorrow, so she gets a bit higher in the betting and then I'll cash out of Truss. I've got some great bets on her but just don't see her winning now somehow.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,022

    tlg86 said:

    TT not pulling out:

    https://twitter.com/TomTugendhat/status/1547251114667642881

    Tom Tugendhat
    @TomTugendhat
    This is a fantastic result.

    I’m delighted to be going through to the next round with the momentum we need to change this country for the better.

    Our country needs #ACleanStart

    Please give him his full title of TIT.
    Surely Tom T has earned a top post in the next cabinet. Would make a great foreign sec (or defence for that matter)
    If he takes it.

    Politics wouldn’t be called politics if politics wasn’t involved?
  • PaulSimonPaulSimon Posts: 9
    Truss, Braverman and Badenoch need to stitch up some sort of deal pronto if they want a right wing candidate in the final two.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 2,707
    edited July 13
    Leon said:

    BETTING VALUE?

    WTF is up with the Badenoch odds?

    She is 20/1 in old money and 23 on Betfair

    To me this underrates her chances, if she can overtake Truss she will be THE candidate of the right; and if she mkes the final she would beat Sunak and it would be close against Mordaunt

    What I was wondering is... how many votes do the 'right' actually have? The combined Braverman/Badenoch vote is not very impressive. Where is Badenoch going to get the additional votes from?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 44,323
    I expect Hunt to stand down from Parliment now, as soon as he has secured a better paying offer. His career there is clearly over. This is a humiliating result for the person that came second last time out.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,022
    edited July 13
    tlg86 said:

    Will any candidate get fewer votes in the next round than they did in the first round?

    I wouldn’t predict that, but suspect there will be a roundabout of ins and outs so some may not leap up as expected.

    As we do the maths and so sure what happens, someone could gaff, some killer smear could be unleashed.

    They are in a goldfish bowl, something minor headline 12 months ago, or sat in a book 12 years, might be splashed over the weekend 🥺
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 34,333
    EPG said:

    Can somebody explain the poll which shows Starmer beating Penny by 15 points, this seems totally out of step

    Tory members love her but 89% of the country don't care.
    Yes, Mordaunt will get out the core vote effectively, but not many converts I would think.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 44,323

    tlg86 said:

    TT not pulling out:

    https://twitter.com/TomTugendhat/status/1547251114667642881

    Tom Tugendhat
    @TomTugendhat
    This is a fantastic result.

    I’m delighted to be going through to the next round with the momentum we need to change this country for the better.

    Our country needs #ACleanStart

    Please give him his full title of TIT.
    Rumours he has offered Hunt deputy TIT.
    Surely left TiT?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 2,244
    Mordaunt needs Cabinet level endorsements. Hunt?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 44,323
    tlg86 said:

    Will any candidate get fewer votes in the next round than they did in the first round?

    I would think Braverman if she doesn't drop out herself. MPs are not famous for going down with sinking ships!
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 2,244
    DavidL said:

    I expect Hunt to stand down from Parliment now, as soon as he has secured a better paying offer. His career there is clearly over. This is a humiliating result for the person that came second last time out.

    Agree. He’s not getting back into the Cabinet in a role he’d want so it’s the end for him.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,479

    181 votes, barely half, for the four candidates who had held a great office of state (including Zahawi, who had been Chancellor for less than a week). This does look like a strong sign that the MPs are looking for a fresh face. Suggests there won't be many transfers for Truss or Sunak.

    Half the governing party's MPs don't support their own government's Cabinet!
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    BETTING VALUE?

    WTF is up with the Badenoch odds?

    She is 20/1 in old money and 23 on Betfair

    To me this underrates her chances, if she can overtake Truss she will be THE candidate of the right; and if she mkes the final she would beat Sunak and it would be close against Mordaunt

    Totally agree. If I had loads of spare dough (which I don't) I'd be putting it all on her.
    I think though she was wildly popular in the hustings we have had so far, it was on basis “she’s one for the future” and “needs a good cabinet post now” are two of the comments I copied, her votes this time are to ensure that is what she gets, as the right ramps up into stop Rishi stop Penny being last two, Badenoch vote, although not going down overall, but doesn’t go up due to vote switchers away from her.

    That is how it actually works isn’t it?

    I think a lot of the so called expert punditry have overlooked how it favours experience the longer it goes on.
    In a normal contest, yes - but many of the voters ie the Tory MPs are newbies themselves, especially the Red Wallers. The experience argument may have less sway with them. Arguably, Hunt's performance shows that.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 22,323
    DavidL said:

    I expect Hunt to stand down from Parliment now, as soon as he has secured a better paying offer. His career there is clearly over. This is a humiliating result for the person that came second last time out.

    "...better paying offer..."? He doesn't really need the money does he?

    What is it with greedy Tories and their lust for more money than they can ever spend?
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,633
    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    BETTING VALUE?

    WTF is up with the Badenoch odds?

    She is 20/1 in old money and 23 on Betfair

    To me this underrates her chances, if she can overtake Truss she will be THE candidate of the right; and if she mkes the final she would beat Sunak and it would be close against Mordaunt

    What I was wondering is... how many votes do the 'right' actually have? The combined Braverman/Badenoch vote is not very impressive. Where is Badenoch going to get the additional votes from?
    Truss, but I wouldn't be so sure that all of Badenoch's support is actually coming from the right of the party.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 22,323
    PaulSimon said:

    Truss, Braverman and Badenoch need to stitch up some sort of deal pronto if they want a right wing candidate in the final two.

    All the candidates are right-wing in my book.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,239
    tlg86 said:

    I think now is the time to lay Penny.

    Yes, laying at 1.76 makes it easy to get greened up all round
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,738
    So my man Tugendhat is through and will hope to pick up most of Hunt’s supporters in the next round now he has been knocked out.

    Sunak top, though not a great result for him, a smaller percentage of the parliamentary party in the first round than Davis and Cameron got in 2005, Portillo got in 2001 and Hague got in 1997 and far smaller than Johnson got in 2019 and May got in 2016. Solid scores for Mordaunt, Truss and Badenoch but Mordaunt in second will be most pleased
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 5,370

    Ideal situation here is transfers from Hunt and Zahawi go Mordaunt, Sue Ellen drops out and backs Kemi and they squeeze Truss and Sunak out

    So the Tories putting out a very fresh start, but inexperienced line up?

    Is that how it really works though, from here?

    It actually gets tribal and bitchy into the next phases doesn’t it?
    I think Truss will be offering the moon to Suella and Kemi to try and stitch up a right wing final 2 for her
    Could end up Truss vs whomever of Rishi and Penny is transfer friendly
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,022
    PaulSimon said:

    Truss, Braverman and Badenoch need to stitch up some sort of deal pronto if they want a right wing candidate in the final two.

    I think between the three of them there’s enough votes to top the poll, even lend some to Sunak to ensure he is second.

    Grace land’s great btw.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,479
    biggles said:

    DavidL said:

    I expect Hunt to stand down from Parliment now, as soon as he has secured a better paying offer. His career there is clearly over. This is a humiliating result for the person that came second last time out.

    Agree. He’s not getting back into the Cabinet in a role he’d want so it’s the end for him.
    Maybe not. Hunt's recent book is about eliminating errors in the NHS and he chairs the select committee so it is possible he might want, and be offered, Health again.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,489
    Suella fights on...

    https://twitter.com/SuellaBraverman/status/1547258019679019011

    Suella Braverman MP
    @SuellaBraverman
    Thank you to my colleagues who voted for me today, I'm pleased to be into the next round of voting.
    #Suella4Leader
    http://Suella4Leader.com
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 44,323

    DavidL said:

    I expect Hunt to stand down from Parliment now, as soon as he has secured a better paying offer. His career there is clearly over. This is a humiliating result for the person that came second last time out.

    "...better paying offer..."? He doesn't really need the money does he?

    What is it with greedy Tories and their lust for more money than they can ever spend?
    I had no idea that he was worth that much $265m? Wow.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730
    edited July 13
    DavidL said:

    tlg86 said:

    Will any candidate get fewer votes in the next round than they did in the first round?

    I would think Braverman if she doesn't drop out herself. MPs are not famous for going down with sinking ships!
    She probably gets to choose which of Truss and Badenoch gets through the next round if she drops out now.
    Is that something she'd want to do, or to avoid ?

    (I note Zahawi is choosing not to endorse anyone.)
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 3,367
    edited July 13
    Worry for Sunak is where the transfers come now to get to 122.

    Hunt, TT would seem to be good mines of votes but PM has the momentum and if you’re an MP keen to stop the right winning then your best chance is backing her.

    I suspect in the next round Penny tops the ballot, and then cannibalises Rishis vote before or at the final round.

    PM vs Truss/Kemi.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 22,323

    PaulSimon said:

    Truss, Braverman and Badenoch need to stitch up some sort of deal pronto if they want a right wing candidate in the final two.

    I think between the three of them there’s enough votes to top the poll, even lend some to Sunak to ensure he is second.

    Grace land’s great btw.
    Ah but has he met @OnlyLivingBoy in New York yet?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,489
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I expect Hunt to stand down from Parliment now, as soon as he has secured a better paying offer. His career there is clearly over. This is a humiliating result for the person that came second last time out.

    "...better paying offer..."? He doesn't really need the money does he?

    What is it with greedy Tories and their lust for more money than they can ever spend?
    I had no idea that he was worth that much $265m? Wow.
    GCSE revision books? I probably contributed to his wealth.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,239
    eek said:

    MattW said:

    I make that one non-voter.

    Twas a write in vote - 1 A.B. Johnson that was ignored.
    The clown, defiant until the end…
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 103,337
    Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries MP tells @BBCLauraK she believes there was a coup to get rid of Boris Johnson

    #BBCPanorama

    The Downfall of Boris Johnson is on @BBCOne at 8pm

    https://bbc.in/3aDuPsK

    https://twitter.com/BBCPanorama/status/1547259845426008065

    Wait until she hears about her role in the coup to replace Theresa May.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,073
    I’m afraid Hunt always flatters to deceive. His campaign in 2019 was lamentable and this even worse.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 22,323
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I expect Hunt to stand down from Parliment now, as soon as he has secured a better paying offer. His career there is clearly over. This is a humiliating result for the person that came second last time out.

    "...better paying offer..."? He doesn't really need the money does he?

    What is it with greedy Tories and their lust for more money than they can ever spend?
    I had no idea that he was worth that much $265m? Wow.
    That's $260m more than I could ever find a way to spend or need.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 41,813
    Steve Baker is bullish about Suella's chances...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,239
    Andy_JS said:

    In sad news Esther McVey won't be deputy prime minister in a Jeremy Hunt government.

    Surely the point at which his desperation overtook his seriousness
  • Wow! I am picking up pressure tonight from ERG sources for Suella Braverman, Liz Truss and Kemi Badenoch to merge campaigns and blow Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt out of the water.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,324

    Worry for Sunak is where the transfers come now to get to 122.

    Hunt, TT would seem to be good mines of votes but PM has the momentum and if you’re an MP keen to stop the right winning then your best chance is backing her.

    I suspect in the next round Penny tops the ballot, and then cannibalises Rishis vote before or at the final round.

    PM vs Truss/Kemi.

    I’d like it to be PM vs Kemi. More so to rub it in Jo Maugham’s face, but that would be a refreshing contest
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 22,323

    Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries MP tells @BBCLauraK she believes there was a coup to get rid of Boris Johnson

    #BBCPanorama

    The Downfall of Boris Johnson is on @BBCOne at 8pm

    https://bbc.in/3aDuPsK

    https://twitter.com/BBCPanorama/status/1547259845426008065

    Wait until she hears about her role in the coup to replace Theresa May.

    She's talking to the BBC? Traitor!
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,022
    edited July 13

    Can somebody explain the poll which shows Starmer beating Penny by 15 points, this seems totally out of step

    I can easily explain it.

    The polls and betting markets are all over the place at the moment. We are flying blind trusting our instincts.

    Not entirely. We do have historical precedents what tends to happen next - if the right are as powerful as they are in this ballot they will easily get one on the list for the equally right wing membership. People holding big offices of state tend to be preferred over those with less experience when push comes to shove. Etc And then Premiers tend to come from Oxford?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730

    Steve Baker is bullish about Suella's chances...

    He was bullish about what Brexit would deliver...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 22,323

    Steve Baker is bullish about Suella's chances...

    The fatal blow then
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 56,044
    Curious this should leak now. Cui bono?

    LONDON — Conservative leadership hopeful Liz Truss was given detailed warnings by her own officials in 2020 that post-Brexit trade pacts with Australia and New Zealand would shrink the country's farming and food sectors, newly obtained government figures reveal.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/liz-truss-uk-food-sector-australia-new-zealand-trade-deal/

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,134
    Nigelb said:

    Steve Baker is bullish about Suella's chances...

    He was bullish about what Brexit would deliver...
    You saying he always talks bull?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 23,445

    Steve Baker is bullish about Suella's chances...

    Don't see from where she picks up transfers. She'll be next out, surely?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 44,323
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    tlg86 said:

    Will any candidate get fewer votes in the next round than they did in the first round?

    I would think Braverman if she doesn't drop out herself. MPs are not famous for going down with sinking ships!
    She probably gets to choose which of Truss and Badenoch gets through the next round if she drops out now.
    Is that something she'd want to do, or to avoid ?

    (I note Zahawi is choosing not to endorse anyone.)
    For which I am sure all the campaigns are duly grateful. Won't get him a job in the next government though.
  • glwglw Posts: 8,473

    Curious this should leak now. Cui bono?

    LONDON — Conservative leadership hopeful Liz Truss was given detailed warnings by her own officials in 2020 that post-Brexit trade pacts with Australia and New Zealand would shrink the country's farming and food sectors, newly obtained government figures reveal.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/liz-truss-uk-food-sector-australia-new-zealand-trade-deal/

    That sounds like the sort of thing someone in the Treasury would know.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Steve Baker is bullish about Suella's chances...

    He was bullish about what Brexit would deliver...
    You saying he always talks bull?
    He is perhaps not an objective observer.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 23,445

    Worry for Sunak is where the transfers come now to get to 122.

    Hunt, TT would seem to be good mines of votes but PM has the momentum and if you’re an MP keen to stop the right winning then your best chance is backing her.

    I suspect in the next round Penny tops the ballot, and then cannibalises Rishis vote before or at the final round.

    PM vs Truss/Kemi.

    I’d like it to be PM vs Kemi. More so to rub it in Jo Maugham’s face, but that would be a refreshing contest
    Should imagine the Opposition would relish that.
  • eekeek Posts: 20,666

    Curious this should leak now. Cui bono?

    LONDON — Conservative leadership hopeful Liz Truss was given detailed warnings by her own officials in 2020 that post-Brexit trade pacts with Australia and New Zealand would shrink the country's farming and food sectors, newly obtained government figures reveal.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/liz-truss-uk-food-sector-australia-new-zealand-trade-deal/

    Is that news? We pointed it out the day it was first mentioned....
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,182
    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1547261966032453637

    Wow! I am picking up pressure tonight from ERG sources for Suella Braverman, Liz Truss and Kemi Badenoch to merge campaigns and blow Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt out of the water. #ToryLeadershipRace

    hmmmm
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 78,843

    It’ll be great again to a Tory Prime Minister who listens to my every word.

    Perhaps she'll be put off by your smutty sense of humour...
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,466

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1547261966032453637

    Wow! I am picking up pressure tonight from ERG sources for Suella Braverman, Liz Truss and Kemi Badenoch to merge campaigns and blow Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt out of the water. #ToryLeadershipRace

    hmmmm

    Not the first time this mysteriously unattributed copy and paste has happened
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 3,367
    edited July 13

    Wow! I am picking up pressure tonight from ERG sources for Suella Braverman, Liz Truss and Kemi Badenoch to merge campaigns and blow Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt out of the water.

    The problem is I don’t think they’re one homogenous blob. Liz Truss is running on the experienced cabinet minister/Brexiteer shtick. Kemi isn’t noticeably talking about Brexit at all and is running on the fresh face/time for a change angle.

    You could quite easily see transfers from Kemi to Penny, for instance.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,804

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1547261966032453637

    Wow! I am picking up pressure tonight from ERG sources for Suella Braverman, Liz Truss and Kemi Badenoch to merge campaigns and blow Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt out of the water. #ToryLeadershipRace

    hmmmm

    It's too early for that.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,797
    Is it too late to pay to rejoin? I want to vote for Penny Mordaunt.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,479
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I expect Hunt to stand down from Parliment now, as soon as he has secured a better paying offer. His career there is clearly over. This is a humiliating result for the person that came second last time out.

    "...better paying offer..."? He doesn't really need the money does he?

    What is it with greedy Tories and their lust for more money than they can ever spend?
    I had no idea that he was worth that much $265m? Wow.
    Where does that come from? The fact that it is in dollars makes me think one of these "net worth" sites has mixed him up with an American near namesake. Hunt was generally reckoned to have made £15 million-ish from Hotcourses so unless he invested in Bitcoin and got out at the top...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,489
    I want it to be Sunak v Badenoch, just to see if Jolyon's head would explode.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,738

    Can somebody explain the poll which shows Starmer beating Penny by 15 points, this seems totally out of step

    Name recognition.

    On a net approval basis the Sunday Times had Mordaunt well ahead of Starmer and Davey in the blue wall seats, although Starmer led all Tory candidates in the red wall seats
  • HYUFD said:

    Can somebody explain the poll which shows Starmer beating Penny by 15 points, this seems totally out of step

    Name recognition.

    On a net approval basis the Sunday Times had Mordaunt well ahead of Starmer and Davey in the blue wall seats, although Starmer led all Tory candidates in the red wall seats
    Poll link?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 2,741
    Farooq said:

    Unfathomable that dozens of MPs actually supported Braverman. These people should be in care, not the Commons.

    One naturally suspects that this is the work of the diamond hard Brexiteers, but she's not going to progress much further. Will be fascinating to see whether a bidding war over who can talk toughest to Brussels now breaks out between the Truss and Badenoch camps.
  • glwglw Posts: 8,473
    tlg86 said:

    I want it to be Sunak v Badenoch, just to see if Jolyon's head would explode.

    It would merely prove that the Tories are double racist.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 78,843

    Beth Rigby (yes, I know, I know) says Sunak's team will be delighted with 88.

    But, I'd expect Penny to top the poll tomorrow regardless of what Rigby says.

    MPs like to go with the flow - she has the big mo.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,176
    It's a blessing Bad Enoch and (lesser extent) Braverman did so well; folding into Truss is not a no brainer.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 2,707
    DavidL said:

    I expect Hunt to stand down from Parliment now, as soon as he has secured a better paying offer. His career there is clearly over. This is a humiliating result for the person that came second last time out.

    I doubt it will be all about the money for him, he made £14 million in 2017 from the sale of a business he owned before going in to politics. I would imagine that, as he's stuck with politics for 17 years, there is no better place to be than Parliament.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,479

    Curious this should leak now. Cui bono?

    LONDON — Conservative leadership hopeful Liz Truss was given detailed warnings by her own officials in 2020 that post-Brexit trade pacts with Australia and New Zealand would shrink the country's farming and food sectors, newly obtained government figures reveal.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/liz-truss-uk-food-sector-australia-new-zealand-trade-deal/

    Labour? According to the story, "The data was obtained through a Freedom of Information request lodged by former Shadow Trade Secretary Emily Thornberry and shared exclusively with POLITICO"
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,022

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1547261966032453637

    Wow! I am picking up pressure tonight from ERG sources for Suella Braverman, Liz Truss and Kemi Badenoch to merge campaigns and blow Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt out of the water. #ToryLeadershipRace

    hmmmm

    What will Truss offer Braverman and Badenoch? 🤔 Home Secretary for Braverman? Which office is suitable for Badenoch? Education? She is so much like Gove, and he was there.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 103,337
    tlg86 said:

    I want it to be Sunak v Badenoch, just to see if Jolyon's head would explode.

    I'm fully expecting him to call them Uncle Toms and/or say that they really aren't BAME because they've never experienced racism.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 78,843

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1547261966032453637

    Wow! I am picking up pressure tonight from ERG sources for Suella Braverman, Liz Truss and Kemi Badenoch to merge campaigns and blow Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt out of the water. #ToryLeadershipRace

    hmmmm

    ERG sources are, and always have been, time wasting moaners.

    No doubt there's some overlap, but voters don't transfer perfectly in elections, and that will apply to Tory MPs too. Particularly when part of their consideration is character and public appeal.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 25,994

    Is it too late to pay to rejoin? I want to vote for Penny Mordaunt.

    3 month quarantine, I believe. Unless you think they will still be voting ...?
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,466
    tlg86 said:

    I want it to be Sunak v Badenoch, just to see if Jolyon's head would explode.

    Why would that make his head explode?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,479

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1547261966032453637

    Wow! I am picking up pressure tonight from ERG sources for Suella Braverman, Liz Truss and Kemi Badenoch to merge campaigns and blow Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt out of the water. #ToryLeadershipRace

    hmmmm

    Do they not realise that two qualify? They haven't got the votes to blow both frontrunners out of the water.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,176

    tlg86 said:

    I want it to be Sunak v Badenoch, just to see if Jolyon's head would explode.

    I'm fully expecting him to call them Uncle Toms and/or say that they really aren't BAME because they've never experienced racism.
    It will be an entirely racist phenomenon: all votes will be implicitly anti African or anti Indian.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,324

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1547261966032453637

    Wow! I am picking up pressure tonight from ERG sources for Suella Braverman, Liz Truss and Kemi Badenoch to merge campaigns and blow Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt out of the water. #ToryLeadershipRace

    hmmmm

    What will Truss offer Braverman and Badenoch? 🤔 Home Secretary for Braverman? Which office is suitable for Badenoch? Education? She is so much like Gove, and he was there.
    I hope Truss sticks to talking about cheese rather than being in the position to offer too cabinet roles
  • MattWMattW Posts: 14,717
    edited July 13
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I expect Hunt to stand down from Parliment now, as soon as he has secured a better paying offer. His career there is clearly over. This is a humiliating result for the person that came second last time out.

    "...better paying offer..."? He doesn't really need the money does he?

    What is it with greedy Tories and their lust for more money than they can ever spend?
    I had no idea that he was worth that much $265m? Wow.
    Source?

    He only made £15m from selling his business in 2017 iirc.

    $265m sounds like a small exaggeration.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 5,036
    I do understand the appeal of Kemi Badenoch. However, if I were a Tory, I'd be concerned that she has the backing of Toby Young and Laurence Fox - not Tories, I know, but pretty extreme in their views. Labour will have noted this, just in case.

    Mind you, Truss having the backing of Nadsy and Moggsy isn't much better.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 103,337
    IshmaelZ said:

    tlg86 said:

    I want it to be Sunak v Badenoch, just to see if Jolyon's head would explode.

    I'm fully expecting him to call them Uncle Toms and/or say that they really aren't BAME because they've never experienced racism.
    It will be an entirely racist phenomenon: all votes will be implicitly anti African or anti Indian.
    Indeed, or they'll get labelled coconuts/choc ices, something I've been called myself.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,022
    edited July 13

    Ideal situation here is transfers from Hunt and Zahawi go Mordaunt, Sue Ellen drops out and backs Kemi and they squeeze Truss and Sunak out

    So the Tories putting out a very fresh start, but inexperienced line up?

    Is that how it really works though, from here?

    It actually gets tribal and bitchy into the next phases doesn’t it?
    I think Truss will be offering the moon to Suella and Kemi to try and stitch up a right wing final 2 for her
    Could end up Truss vs whomever of Rishi and Penny is transfer friendly
    I agree Woolie. Truss top by about 15, Sunak and Penny very close to each other for the member vote.

    For Sunak, Portillo says hi 🫢
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 3,492
    Farooq said:

    tlg86 said:

    I want it to be Sunak v Badenoch, just to see if Jolyon's head would explode.

    Why would that make his head explode?
    He thinks Sunak is too brown to lead the Tories
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,324
    Farooq said:

    tlg86 said:

    I want it to be Sunak v Badenoch, just to see if Jolyon's head would explode.

    Why would that make his head explode?
    His comment earlier about the tories choosing two “white” people
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 78,843

    tlg86 said:

    I want it to be Sunak v Badenoch, just to see if Jolyon's head would explode.

    I'm fully expecting him to call them Uncle Toms and/or say that they really aren't BAME because they've never experienced racism.
    I was once assured that never happens in real life. Didn't sound likely to me, I've seen twitter, but then what would I know as a white man?
This discussion has been closed.