Latest betting next CON leader and PM – politicalbetting.com

Sandpit said:

2nd like Sunak.

Scott_xP said:

Labour putting out a very punch attack ad about Tory candidates’ tax status - basically ‘they put up your taxes while avoiding their own’. 🥊 https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1547231435987292160/video/1

williamglenn said:

I.e. he's been eliminated.

@DPJHodges
Rumours circulating Hunt preparing to pull out.

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1547230238660345857

IanB2 said:

williamglenn said:

I.e. he's been eliminated.

@DPJHodges
Rumours circulating Hunt preparing to pull out.

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1547230238660345857

Lol. After polls close you don’t pull out, you just lose.

numbertwelve said:

Scott_xP said:

Labour putting out a very punch attack ad about Tory candidates’ tax status - basically ‘they put up your taxes while avoiding their own’. 🥊 https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1547231435987292160/video/1

As I mentioned on the previous thread - they are going for Sunak. Why? Do they think they’re most likely to face him? Or do they want to destroy his chances?

AFAIK there’s no suggestion of fancy tax schemes from Truss or Penny, unless someone can enlighten me?

Leon said:

Caveat emptor. This guy has about 200 followers so treat with grave suspicion


@GBNEWS 🚨 | BREAKING: Understand from a top '22 committee source that Penny Mordaunt surpasses Sunak in a startlingly unexpected outcome, with Liz Truss knocking Rishi out of the park and securing second place in the MPs' ballots.

Further proof that it's always the undeclared votes...

numbertwelve said:

MISTY said:

Could Badenoch be the king (Queen?) maker here?

Maybe not the winner this time, but big help to the team that 'signed' her.

Surely she comes out of this with a cabinet role. Smart money might even be on CoE.

MaxPB said:

Inch by inch the UK seems to be moving away from the more turbulent waters it was in a few weeks ago. Boris being booted has helped but there's also some sense in recent days that the Bank has finally woken up and will push bigger rate rises to combat inflation. Loads of chatter from all over the city around it too so hopefully it's true.

There's going to be a few more tough months IMO but then we'll start to see base effects kick in because energy costs had already begun to surge in late 2021 and all we'll be left with is the effect of weaker sterling (still substantial tbf) by the start of next year.

The next PM needs to get a handle on costs and get moving with huge supply side reform. Kemi gets it, the sticking plaster rebates are addressing the symptoms of inflation rather than the cause (not enough investment in electricity generation) and we need to get moving with solving our deep economic to unlock future growth and the nation's potential rather than just giving away minor one off rebates.

The Tories would do well to get Kemi in the final two so she gets a national platform to speak about her ideas.

Leon said:

Caveat emptor. This guy has about 200 followers so treat with grave suspicion


@GBNEWS 🚨 | BREAKING: Understand from a top '22 committee source that Penny Mordaunt surpasses Sunak in a startlingly unexpected outcome, with Liz Truss knocking Rishi out of the park and securing second place in the MPs' ballots.

Further proof that it's always the undeclared votes...

Leon said:

Caveat emptor. This guy has about 200 followers so treat with grave suspicion


@GBNEWS 🚨 | BREAKING: Understand from a top '22 committee source that Penny Mordaunt surpasses Sunak in a startlingly unexpected outcome, with Liz Truss knocking Rishi out of the park and securing second place in the MPs' ballots.

Further proof that it's always the undeclared votes...

Leon said:

If Mordaunt wins this round then it’s basically over?

Leon said:

If Mordaunt wins this round then it’s basically over?

numbertwelve said:

Foxy said:

numbertwelve said:

MISTY said:

Could Badenoch be the king (Queen?) maker here?

Maybe not the winner this time, but big help to the team that 'signed' her.

Surely she comes out of this with a cabinet role. Smart money might even be on CoE.

Not CoE, perhaps Home Office.

Kiss of death if ever there was one….

CorrectHorseBattery said:

People can’t name Penny Mordaunt when shown a photo. Keir Starmer of the Tories

Richard_Nabavi said:

Chris Hopkins @ChrisHopkins92

New poll from @SavantaComRes finds just 11% of the public and 16% of Conservative voters can correctly name Penny Mordaunt when shown a photo of her.

Sunak 66%
Truss 33%
Mordaunt 11%

So I recommend caution in jumping to conclusions on current polling about their popularity.

Andy_JS said:

Leon said:

If Mordaunt wins this round then it’s basically over?

No, anything could happen during the 7 week campaign with members.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

People can’t name Penny Mordaunt when shown a photo. Keir Starmer of the Tories

Sandpit said:

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

Inch by inch the UK seems to be moving away from the more turbulent waters it was in a few weeks ago. Boris being booted has helped but there's also some sense in recent days that the Bank has finally woken up and will push bigger rate rises to combat inflation. Loads of chatter from all over the city around it too so hopefully it's true.

There's going to be a few more tough months IMO but then we'll start to see base effects kick in because energy costs had already begun to surge in late 2021 and all we'll be left with is the effect of weaker sterling (still substantial tbf) by the start of next year.

The next PM needs to get a handle on costs and get moving with huge supply side reform. Kemi gets it, the sticking plaster rebates are addressing the symptoms of inflation rather than the cause (not enough investment in electricity generation) and we need to get moving with solving our deep economic to unlock future growth and the nation's potential rather than just giving away minor one off rebates.

The Tories would do well to get Kemi in the final two so she gets a national platform to speak about her ideas.

Raising interest rates to slow the economy, when people are already seeing their disposable income squeezed by higher commodity prices would be extremely brave.

The commodity prices are all in US$, and if the Fed is going to keep going up 75bps a month…

Richard_Nabavi said:

Chris Hopkins @ChrisHopkins92

New poll from @SavantaComRes finds just 11% of the public and 16% of Conservative voters can correctly name Penny Mordaunt when shown a photo of her.

Sunak 66%
Truss 33%
Mordaunt 11%

So I recommend caution in jumping to conclusions on current polling about their popularity.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Omnium said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

People can’t name Penny Mordaunt when shown a photo. Keir Starmer of the Tories

I thought you liked Starmer?

Yes that was a compliment. It’s how Starmer won the leadership.

They’d both be fine as leaders in my view

Leon said:

Mordaunt shortens again on Betfair

1.75

Andy_JS said:

It'll be interesting to see how close it is for third place between Truss and Badenoch.

wooliedyed said:

If Kemi, Tom, Penny or Suella win they will be the first mid-parliament change of PM to have not held a great office of state since Douglas-Home

OnlyLivingBoy said:

FPT in response to Gardenwalker, posting here simply because it took me a while to write.

I think there has always been a wide range of views and the so-called "culture wars" have been going on for a long time. In my own family my two sets of grandparents were almost caricature versions of the two sides to the postwar debate (they all grew up in the 1920s, my grandfathers both served in the war).
On my father's side, my grandfather was a communist when he was at Oxford, my grandmother came from a Welsh nonconformist background; they were active in the Labour Party and CND; they lived in the US for a bit and got involved in the Civil Rights movement. They had gay friends I think. My dad's best friend at school in the early 1950s was black. They were extremely unbigoted, early proponents of wokeness I suppose.
On my mother's side, her parents grew up poor in Devonport but were both pretty gifted - my grandmother a very talented pianist, my grandfather an engineer. Neither went to university. My grandfather lived in Bermuda for a bit as a teenager where I think he picked up some fairly prejudiced views. He was pretty openly racist as well as being extremely right wing in general. I think my grandmother's views weren't so different although she was better at hiding them (my grandfather was quite often drunk). My grandfather allegedly told his neighbour that my wife was "as black as the ace of spades" after meeting her for the first time. On the other hand they were quite nice to her once they got to know her.
They were certainly extremely prejudiced but I think that reflected the narrowness of their upbringing and a certain amount of bitterness that they had been held back by their working class origins, as they undoubtedly had been.
Long and short, my family has been arguing about these "culture war" issues for decades, there is nothing new under the sun.

tlg86 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Chris Hopkins @ChrisHopkins92

New poll from @SavantaComRes finds just 11% of the public and 16% of Conservative voters can correctly name Penny Mordaunt when shown a photo of her.

Sunak 66%
Truss 33%
Mordaunt 11%

So I recommend caution in jumping to conclusions on current polling about their popularity.

Voters, not members.

Phil said:

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

Inch by inch the UK seems to be moving away from the more turbulent waters it was in a few weeks ago. Boris being booted has helped but there's also some sense in recent days that the Bank has finally woken up and will push bigger rate rises to combat inflation. Loads of chatter from all over the city around it too so hopefully it's true.

There's going to be a few more tough months IMO but then we'll start to see base effects kick in because energy costs had already begun to surge in late 2021 and all we'll be left with is the effect of weaker sterling (still substantial tbf) by the start of next year.

The next PM needs to get a handle on costs and get moving with huge supply side reform. Kemi gets it, the sticking plaster rebates are addressing the symptoms of inflation rather than the cause (not enough investment in electricity generation) and we need to get moving with solving our deep economic to unlock future growth and the nation's potential rather than just giving away minor one off rebates.

The Tories would do well to get Kemi in the final two so she gets a national platform to speak about her ideas.

Raising interest rates to slow the economy, when people are already seeing their disposable income squeezed by higher commodity prices would be extremely brave.

Given that the Fed is set on raising rates & our problem is (mostly) an oil price shock when we’re dependent on oil imports we’re damned if we do & damned if we don’t.

Don’t raise rates: £ craters even more, oil price goes through the roof when priced in £ and everyone suffers. Do raise rates, push up the price of £ denominsted debt, everyone suffers.

Everything depends on the second round effects though - pick your poison & hope for the least worst outcome.

Anabobazina said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Chris Hopkins @ChrisHopkins92

New poll from @SavantaComRes finds just 11% of the public and 16% of Conservative voters can correctly name Penny Mordaunt when shown a photo of her.

Sunak 66%
Truss 33%
Mordaunt 11%

So I recommend caution in jumping to conclusions on current polling about their popularity.

Yes, this latest round of Pennymania rather seems to ignore the only polling on the real test – how she does against Starmer. She was actually the worst of the candidates surveyed, a 15-point deficit (Badenoch for some reason didn't feature).

(I must admit her weakness with the public surprised me, but there it is)

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

Inch by inch the UK seems to be moving away from the more turbulent waters it was in a few weeks ago. Boris being booted has helped but there's also some sense in recent days that the Bank has finally woken up and will push bigger rate rises to combat inflation. Loads of chatter from all over the city around it too so hopefully it's true.

There's going to be a few more tough months IMO but then we'll start to see base effects kick in because energy costs had already begun to surge in late 2021 and all we'll be left with is the effect of weaker sterling (still substantial tbf) by the start of next year.

The next PM needs to get a handle on costs and get moving with huge supply side reform. Kemi gets it, the sticking plaster rebates are addressing the symptoms of inflation rather than the cause (not enough investment in electricity generation) and we need to get moving with solving our deep economic to unlock future growth and the nation's potential rather than just giving away minor one off rebates.

The Tories would do well to get Kemi in the final two so she gets a national platform to speak about her ideas.

Raising interest rates to slow the economy, when people are already seeing their disposable income squeezed by higher commodity prices would be extremely brave.

Anabobazina said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Chris Hopkins @ChrisHopkins92

New poll from @SavantaComRes finds just 11% of the public and 16% of Conservative voters can correctly name Penny Mordaunt when shown a photo of her.

Sunak 66%
Truss 33%
Mordaunt 11%

So I recommend caution in jumping to conclusions on current polling about their popularity.

Yes, this latest round of Pennymania rather seems to ignore the only polling on the real test – how she does against Starmer. She was actually the worst of the candidates surveyed, a 15-point deficit (Badenoch for some reason didn't feature).

(I must admit her weakness with the public surprised me, but there it is)