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Latest betting next CON leader and PM – politicalbetting.com

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  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Truss only 50.lolololol
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,447
    Andy_JS said:

    Sunak 88
    Mordaunt 67
    Truss 50
    Badenoch 40
    Tugendhat 37
    Braverman 32
    Zahawi 25
    Hunt 18

    Interesting!!
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270
    Smaller margin for Sunak than expected?
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    edited July 2022
    Sandpit said:

    Okay, prediction:

    Mourdaunt
    Badenoch
    Sunak
    Truss
    Tugendhat
    Zahawi
    Braverman
    Hunt

    Sunak
    Mordaunt
    Badenoch
    Tugsy
    Truss
    Braverman
    Zahawi
    Hun

    *Edit* last one as in "u ok?"
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    Nae luck for NZ. LOL.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,811
    Get in Kemi!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    Only Hunt and Zahawi out.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    Zahawi and Hunt eliminated!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,567
    Hunt and Zahawi toast.

    Braverman (32) and Tugendhat (37) quite toasty.....
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Damn it, Hunt messed up my nice Zahawi bet.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    OnboardG1 said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    ping said:

    Foxy said:

    Mordaunt vs Starmer would be fascinating. I’m up for it

    Mordaunt is probably best placed to defend seats in the blue Shires, though not obvious Red Wall appeal.
    She has that ex-forces patriotic vibe that could go down well in some Red Wall constituencies, i think. She could probably hold on to a few of them. Some are probably beyond saving already TBH.
    I’m a bit puzzled by her reliance on her supposed “military background”

    Reading her wiki, she seems to have joined in her mid 30’s, not achieved much of note, or seen any action, then left after five years.

    Deeply unimpressive. Am I being unfair?

    Whaddya think @Dura_Ace ? @TOPPING ?
    Dura is on record with "not much", though expressed more colourfully.
    She seems to have had a challenging upbringing - father Para Reg hence away a lot, mother died early, she became "primary caregiver" (wiki).

    She is in the RNR (no idea what the difference between RNR and RNVR is) and as such although she didn't do too much it seems (can't see any deployments) she put her name down and was presumably ready to deploy. And might have had to I assume at various points in time.

    So good for her is my view.
    I am unsurprised that you're not quite as cynical as our aviator. :smile:
    I find the forces fetishism a bit naff (we’re not American) so the fact she was a carer from a young age makes me think more highly of her than being RNR. Then again one of my best friends is RNR and I’m amazed he can tie his shoes in the morning so my views may not be representative.
    It's complicated.

    From 2003 to 20-whenever we pulled out of Afghan it meant war fighting so that requires something of people. I wouldn't say fetish-worthy but if you signed up then you knew it was going to get kinetic.

    Since then (and hence for a large part of today's HMF) there are no conflicts as such, just training (eg in Estonia) and eg mentoring/peacekeeping. So not so busy.

    You are right the Americans go overboard imo and we are more "musn't grumble" about it all.

    Everything changed with Iraq/Afghan and all the footage, embedded reporters, and youtube posts, when there was a transformation of HMF from being a dirty little secret (ie NI) to being "heroes".

    Is it a good thing? Not good not bad imo. Certainly HMF were overlooked/under-appreciated especially for Op Banner for many years.

    *SOBS*
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    edited July 2022
    rcs1000 said:

    And while we're here... this is the UK:

    Interesting perspective. It looks from the numbers that the euro could weaken a whole lot further before it really becomes a problem for the ECB.

    Dunno.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    Andy_JS said:

    Sunak 88
    Mordaunt 67
    Truss 50
    Badenoch 40
    Tugendhat 37
    Braverman 32
    Zahawi 25
    Hunt 18

    Shocking for Rishi. Brilliant for Badenoch.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,045

    FFS Braverman gets through

    Just - but will not go further
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    You can probably add most of Braverman's votes to Badenoch.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    So where does Hunt and Zahawi votes go?

  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,762
    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Rishi drifts… out to 5

    People know something clearly.
    Marginal movement tho

    However Unibet has Mordaunt at 2/5 which is notable
    Bookmakers with one side only of the price can pitch any way they choose. The prices that high-street bookmakers offer have no meaning.
    Well, they're not saying Mordaunt is a 30/1 shot, so they have meaning
    Yeah. Sorry I apologise. Their odds offered represent the maximal chance. And generally the maximal chance of being ripped off.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,567
    43 votes to redistribute next round.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639

    Andy_JS said:

    Sunak 88
    Mordaunt 67
    Truss 50
    Badenoch 40
    Tugendhat 37
    Braverman 32
    Zahawi 25
    Hunt 18

    Interesting!!
    Still all to play for 👍
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    Rishi Sunak - 24.6%
    Penny Mordaunt - 18.8%
    Liz Truss - 14.0%
    Kemi Badenoch - 11.2%
    Tom Tugendhat - 10.4%
    Suella Braverman - 9.0%
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,899

    If Sunak doesn't get it, is that the end of his political career? He might try and do a Clegg.

    Sunak can retire and do a Leon, posting pictures from empty bars around the world.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    Carnyx said:

    TOPPING said:

    Carnyx said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    ping said:

    Foxy said:

    Mordaunt vs Starmer would be fascinating. I’m up for it

    Mordaunt is probably best placed to defend seats in the blue Shires, though not obvious Red Wall appeal.
    She has that ex-forces patriotic vibe that could go down well in some Red Wall constituencies, i think. She could probably hold on to a few of them. Some are probably beyond saving already TBH.
    I’m a bit puzzled by her reliance on her supposed “military background”

    Reading her wiki, she seems to have joined in her mid 30’s, not achieved much of note, or seen any action, then left after five years.

    Deeply unimpressive. Am I being unfair?

    Whaddya think @Dura_Ace ? @TOPPING ?
    Dura is on record with "not much", though expressed more colourfully.
    She seems to have had a challenging upbringing - father Para Reg hence away a lot, mother died early, she became "primary caregiver" (wiki).

    She is in the RNR (no idea what the difference between RNR and RNVR is) and as such although she didn't do too much it seems (can't see any deployments) she put her name down and was presumably ready to deploy. And might have had to I assume at various points in time.

    So good for her is my view.
    RNR is or at least was a period of reserve after you've done a contract of full-time matelot in the Andrew. RNVR is when you've never been a full-timer.
    tyvm

    And that could be one of the most magnificent typos in PB history.
    What typo? No misspellings there at all. Idiom may be a problem - Andrew = RN.
    Ahhh - hadn't heard that. Just associated it with HRH The Person.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited July 2022
    Sunak vs Truss, Mordaunt or Badenoch nailed on
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,286
    Andy_JS said:

    Sunak 88
    Mordaunt 67
    Truss 50
    Badenoch 40
    Tugendhat 37
    Braverman 32
    Zahawi 25
    Hunt 18

    357 votes cast.

    Penny doing well there
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,828
    edited July 2022
    Roughly what you would expect. Badenoch ahead of Tugendhat.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    So Hunt and Tugendhat votes go to Penny?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175

    Sunak vs Truss, Mordaunt or Badenoch nailed on

    Sunak is nowhere near nailed on for the final two.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,653
    tlg86 said:

    Kemi Badenoch - 40
    Suella Braverman - 32
    Jeremy Hunt - 18
    Penny Mordaunt - 67
    Rishi Sunak - 88
    Liz Truss - 50
    Tom Tugendhat - 37
    Nadhim Zahawi - 25

    Hunt fewer than the 20 who nominated him...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557

    So Hunt and Tugendhat votes go to Penny?

    Some will go to Truss, a few to Sunak.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,045

    Sunak vs Truss, Mordaunt or Badenoch nailed on

    Very likely
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Good showing for Kemi, and the ERG clearly pushed Braverman. Hunt and Zahawi votes probably transfer quite well to Sunak, but Penny has the big mo'
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    Sunak vs Truss, Mordaunt or Badenoch nailed on

    No, Sunak needed to do much better than that.
  • Maudaunt into the final two IMHO.

    Politics is healing!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    Crazy 88 :)
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,015

    Andy_JS said:

    Sunak 88
    Mordaunt 67
    Truss 50
    Badenoch 40
    Tugendhat 37
    Braverman 32
    Zahawi 25
    Hunt 18

    Shocking for Rishi. Brilliant for Badenoch.
    Yes, she could leapfrog The Truss on those numbers.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    Beth Rigby thinks Rishi will be “delighted” with that result. I think it’s very disappointing personally.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Beth Rigby (yes, I know, I know) says Sunak's team will be delighted with 88.

    But, I'd expect Penny to top the poll tomorrow regardless of what Rigby says.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    357 MPs voted. Does that mean everyone voted?
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    Hunt is humiliated. He will stand down at the next election
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    The rumours about Hunt turned out to be true.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,839
    TOPPING said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    ping said:

    Foxy said:

    Mordaunt vs Starmer would be fascinating. I’m up for it

    Mordaunt is probably best placed to defend seats in the blue Shires, though not obvious Red Wall appeal.
    She has that ex-forces patriotic vibe that could go down well in some Red Wall constituencies, i think. She could probably hold on to a few of them. Some are probably beyond saving already TBH.
    I’m a bit puzzled by her reliance on her supposed “military background”

    Reading her wiki, she seems to have joined in her mid 30’s, not achieved much of note, or seen any action, then left after five years.

    Deeply unimpressive. Am I being unfair?

    Whaddya think @Dura_Ace ? @TOPPING ?
    Dura is on record with "not much", though expressed more colourfully.
    She seems to have had a challenging upbringing - father Para Reg hence away a lot, mother died early, she became "primary caregiver" (wiki).

    She is in the RNR (no idea what the difference between RNR and RNVR is) and as such although she didn't do too much it seems (can't see any deployments) she put her name down and was presumably ready to deploy. And might have had to I assume at various points in time.

    So good for her is my view.
    I am unsurprised that you're not quite as cynical as our aviator. :smile:
    I find the forces fetishism a bit naff (we’re not American) so the fact she was a carer from a young age makes me think more highly of her than being RNR. Then again one of my best friends is RNR and I’m amazed he can tie his shoes in the morning so my views may not be representative.
    It's complicated.

    From 2003 to 20-whenever we pulled out of Afghan it meant war fighting so that requires something of people. I wouldn't say fetish-worthy but if you signed up then you knew it was going to get kinetic.

    Since then (and hence for a large part of today's HMF) there are no conflicts as such, just training (eg in Estonia) and eg mentoring/peacekeeping. So not so busy.

    You are right the Americans go overboard imo and we are more "musn't grumble" about it all.

    Everything changed with Iraq/Afghan and all the footage, embedded reporters, and youtube posts, when there was a transformation of HMF from being a dirty little secret (ie NI) to being "heroes".

    Is it a good thing? Not good not bad imo. Certainly HMF were overlooked/under-appreciated especially for Op Banner for many years.

    *SOBS*
    Navy not usually* so involved at the sharp edge, mind, unless you were a bold pilot or aircrew such as DA. But plenty of sometimes fairly miserable traipsing around the globe and patrolling to and fro on uncomfortable lumps of machinery with odd corners left over for the living inhabitants to arrange themselves in.

    *But pretty risky at times - for instance in the Persian/Arabian Gulf.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,296
    Mordaunt is more likely to be in the final two than Sunak

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,015

    FFS Braverman gets through

    She should withdraw this evening and endorse Kemi.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,567
    Sandpit said:

    Sunak vs Truss, Mordaunt or Badenoch nailed on

    No, Sunak needed to do much better than that.
    Indeed. Where are his additional votes coming from? The Chancellor? No. Hunt - expect his vote to fracture.
  • I would be over the moon with Mordaunt vs Starmer, sensible bland politics is back on the menu
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    Fantastic for Mordaunt v good for Badenoch
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,899
    Betfair next pm after Hunt & Zahawi out:-

    1.8 Penny Mordaunt 55%
    4.7 Rishi Sunak 21%
    5.5 Liz Truss 18%
    19.5 Kemi Badenoch 5%
    30 Tom Tugendhat
    110 Dominic Raab
    110 Suella Braverman
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    edited July 2022
    tlg86 said:

    357 MPs voted. Does that mean everyone voted?

    One MP didn't or spoilt their paper. Electorate is 358.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    TOPPING said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    ping said:

    Foxy said:

    Mordaunt vs Starmer would be fascinating. I’m up for it

    Mordaunt is probably best placed to defend seats in the blue Shires, though not obvious Red Wall appeal.
    She has that ex-forces patriotic vibe that could go down well in some Red Wall constituencies, i think. She could probably hold on to a few of them. Some are probably beyond saving already TBH.
    I’m a bit puzzled by her reliance on her supposed “military background”

    Reading her wiki, she seems to have joined in her mid 30’s, not achieved much of note, or seen any action, then left after five years.

    Deeply unimpressive. Am I being unfair?

    Whaddya think @Dura_Ace ? @TOPPING ?
    Dura is on record with "not much", though expressed more colourfully.
    She seems to have had a challenging upbringing - father Para Reg hence away a lot, mother died early, she became "primary caregiver" (wiki).

    She is in the RNR (no idea what the difference between RNR and RNVR is) and as such although she didn't do too much it seems (can't see any deployments) she put her name down and was presumably ready to deploy. And might have had to I assume at various points in time.

    So good for her is my view.
    I am unsurprised that you're not quite as cynical as our aviator. :smile:
    I find the forces fetishism a bit naff (we’re not American) so the fact she was a carer from a young age makes me think more highly of her than being RNR. Then again one of my best friends is RNR and I’m amazed he can tie his shoes in the morning so my views may not be representative.
    It's complicated.

    From 2003 to 20-whenever we pulled out of Afghan it meant war fighting so that requires something of people. I wouldn't say fetish-worthy but if you signed up then you knew it was going to get kinetic.

    Since then (and hence for a large part of today's HMF) there are no conflicts as such, just training (eg in Estonia) and eg mentoring/peacekeeping. So not so busy.

    You are right the Americans go overboard imo and we are more "musn't grumble" about it all.

    Everything changed with Iraq/Afghan and all the footage, embedded reporters, and youtube posts, when there was a transformation of HMF from being a dirty little secret (ie NI) to being "heroes".

    Is it a good thing? Not good not bad imo. Certainly HMF were overlooked/under-appreciated especially for Op Banner for many years.

    *SOBS*
    Probably where I am tbf. The forces should be treated well but “our brave lads” is cringe. I get particularly upset with the treatment veterans often get from the state (something Labour should go harder on).
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,831
    Surely Braverman will drop out as well.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557

    Beth Rigby thinks Rishi will be “delighted” with that result. I think it’s very disappointing personally.

    Her analysis is terrible. Ignoring Badenoch completely.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Rishi's gameplan surely has to be to shore up Tom, try to get him to knock out Penny.

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited July 2022
    Sandpit said:

    Sunak vs Truss, Mordaunt or Badenoch nailed on

    No, Sunak needed to do much better than that.
    He only needs another 35 to be guaranteed a top 2 spot. He will get most of Hunt and Tugendhats transfers i think. I cant see him failing to pick up 35
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,567
    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Kemi Badenoch - 40
    Suella Braverman - 32
    Jeremy Hunt - 18
    Penny Mordaunt - 67
    Rishi Sunak - 88
    Liz Truss - 50
    Tom Tugendhat - 37
    Nadhim Zahawi - 25

    Hunt fewer than the 20 who nominated him...
    "You're bastards! You're all lying bastards!!"
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    357 total, I think. Who didn't vote? Is it the One Who No Longer Attends?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,633
    tlg86 said:

    357 MPs voted. Does that mean everyone voted?

    Except Boris Johnson.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    Extra votes required to be certain of making the final two:

    Rishi Sunak - 32
    Penny Mordaunt - 53
    Liz Truss - 70
    Kemi Badenoch - 80
    Tom Tugendhat - 83
    Suella Braverman - 88
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,839
    OnboardG1 said:

    TOPPING said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    ping said:

    Foxy said:

    Mordaunt vs Starmer would be fascinating. I’m up for it

    Mordaunt is probably best placed to defend seats in the blue Shires, though not obvious Red Wall appeal.
    She has that ex-forces patriotic vibe that could go down well in some Red Wall constituencies, i think. She could probably hold on to a few of them. Some are probably beyond saving already TBH.
    I’m a bit puzzled by her reliance on her supposed “military background”

    Reading her wiki, she seems to have joined in her mid 30’s, not achieved much of note, or seen any action, then left after five years.

    Deeply unimpressive. Am I being unfair?

    Whaddya think @Dura_Ace ? @TOPPING ?
    Dura is on record with "not much", though expressed more colourfully.
    She seems to have had a challenging upbringing - father Para Reg hence away a lot, mother died early, she became "primary caregiver" (wiki).

    She is in the RNR (no idea what the difference between RNR and RNVR is) and as such although she didn't do too much it seems (can't see any deployments) she put her name down and was presumably ready to deploy. And might have had to I assume at various points in time.

    So good for her is my view.
    I am unsurprised that you're not quite as cynical as our aviator. :smile:
    I find the forces fetishism a bit naff (we’re not American) so the fact she was a carer from a young age makes me think more highly of her than being RNR. Then again one of my best friends is RNR and I’m amazed he can tie his shoes in the morning so my views may not be representative.
    It's complicated.

    From 2003 to 20-whenever we pulled out of Afghan it meant war fighting so that requires something of people. I wouldn't say fetish-worthy but if you signed up then you knew it was going to get kinetic.

    Since then (and hence for a large part of today's HMF) there are no conflicts as such, just training (eg in Estonia) and eg mentoring/peacekeeping. So not so busy.

    You are right the Americans go overboard imo and we are more "musn't grumble" about it all.

    Everything changed with Iraq/Afghan and all the footage, embedded reporters, and youtube posts, when there was a transformation of HMF from being a dirty little secret (ie NI) to being "heroes".

    Is it a good thing? Not good not bad imo. Certainly HMF were overlooked/under-appreciated especially for Op Banner for many years.

    *SOBS*
    Probably where I am tbf. The forces should be treated well but “our brave lads” is cringe. I get particularly upset with the treatment veterans often get from the state (something Labour should go harder on).
    Didn't help that the specialist military (including naval) hospitals were closed down.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,653

    Andy_JS said:

    Sunak 88
    Mordaunt 67
    Truss 50
    Badenoch 40
    Tugendhat 37
    Braverman 32
    Zahawi 25
    Hunt 18

    Shocking for Rishi. Brilliant for Badenoch.
    Yes, she could leapfrog The Truss on those numbers.
    I don't think she makes the cut though.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    Andy_JS said:

    tlg86 said:

    357 MPs voted. Does that mean everyone voted?

    One MP didn't or spoilt their paper. Electorate is 358.
    I hear they scrawled Boris Johnson!!! on their ballot.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    Betfair next pm after Hunt & Zahawi out:-

    1.8 Penny Mordaunt 55%
    4.7 Rishi Sunak 21%
    5.5 Liz Truss 18%
    19.5 Kemi Badenoch 5%
    30 Tom Tugendhat
    110 Dominic Raab
    110 Suella Braverman

    Raab and Badenoch the value there?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    DavidL said:

    Surely Braverman will drop out as well.

    Why? She could get a lot from Zahawi and go above TT.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,831
    Goodish result for Badenock. She can stay at least another round. Tugendhat highly marginal.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,636

    Rishi's gameplan surely has to be to shore up Tom, try to get him to knock out Penny.

    Tugendhat is starting from too low. There's no path for him to overtake Truss or Mordaunt.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842

    tlg86 said:

    357 MPs voted. Does that mean everyone voted?

    Except Boris Johnson.
    Johnson voted via a proxy
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    At least Zahawi is out. Rejoice.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,899
    Andy_JS said:

    tlg86 said:

    357 MPs voted. Does that mean everyone voted?

    One MP didn't or spoilt their paper. Electorate is 358.
    Boris?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    tlg86 said:

    357 MPs voted. Does that mean everyone voted?

    Except Boris Johnson.
    Boris did vote but his write in candidate, one A.B. Johnson, didn't count.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Sandpit said:

    Sunak vs Truss, Mordaunt or Badenoch nailed on

    No, Sunak needed to do much better than that.
    He only needs another 35 to be guaranteed a top 2 spot. He will get most of Hunt and Tugendhats transfers i think. I cant see him failing to pick up 35
    You're assuming he holds on to his existing votes.
    That is very much not a given.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Kemi Badenoch - 40
    Suella Braverman - 32
    Jeremy Hunt - 18
    Penny Mordaunt - 67
    Rishi Sunak - 88
    Liz Truss - 50
    Tom Tugendhat - 37
    Nadhim Zahawi - 25

    Hunt fewer than the 20 who nominated him...
    So he did get nominations from Sunak.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,653
    Carnyx said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    TOPPING said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    ping said:

    Foxy said:

    Mordaunt vs Starmer would be fascinating. I’m up for it

    Mordaunt is probably best placed to defend seats in the blue Shires, though not obvious Red Wall appeal.
    She has that ex-forces patriotic vibe that could go down well in some Red Wall constituencies, i think. She could probably hold on to a few of them. Some are probably beyond saving already TBH.
    I’m a bit puzzled by her reliance on her supposed “military background”

    Reading her wiki, she seems to have joined in her mid 30’s, not achieved much of note, or seen any action, then left after five years.

    Deeply unimpressive. Am I being unfair?

    Whaddya think @Dura_Ace ? @TOPPING ?
    Dura is on record with "not much", though expressed more colourfully.
    She seems to have had a challenging upbringing - father Para Reg hence away a lot, mother died early, she became "primary caregiver" (wiki).

    She is in the RNR (no idea what the difference between RNR and RNVR is) and as such although she didn't do too much it seems (can't see any deployments) she put her name down and was presumably ready to deploy. And might have had to I assume at various points in time.

    So good for her is my view.
    I am unsurprised that you're not quite as cynical as our aviator. :smile:
    I find the forces fetishism a bit naff (we’re not American) so the fact she was a carer from a young age makes me think more highly of her than being RNR. Then again one of my best friends is RNR and I’m amazed he can tie his shoes in the morning so my views may not be representative.
    It's complicated.

    From 2003 to 20-whenever we pulled out of Afghan it meant war fighting so that requires something of people. I wouldn't say fetish-worthy but if you signed up then you knew it was going to get kinetic.

    Since then (and hence for a large part of today's HMF) there are no conflicts as such, just training (eg in Estonia) and eg mentoring/peacekeeping. So not so busy.

    You are right the Americans go overboard imo and we are more "musn't grumble" about it all.

    Everything changed with Iraq/Afghan and all the footage, embedded reporters, and youtube posts, when there was a transformation of HMF from being a dirty little secret (ie NI) to being "heroes".

    Is it a good thing? Not good not bad imo. Certainly HMF were overlooked/under-appreciated especially for Op Banner for many years.

    *SOBS*
    Probably where I am tbf. The forces should be treated well but “our brave lads” is cringe. I get particularly upset with the treatment veterans often get from the state (something Labour should go harder on).
    Didn't help that the specialist military (including naval) hospitals were closed down.
    They were not viable, and a drain on forces medical resources to staff. The current system of military wards at major hospitals is a better one.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,633

    NEW THREAD

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    tlg86 said:

    Extra votes required to be certain of making the final two:

    Rishi Sunak - 32
    Penny Mordaunt - 53
    Liz Truss - 70
    Kemi Badenoch - 80
    Tom Tugendhat - 83
    Suella Braverman - 88

    Presumably however you can change your vote each round, so it's not certain you keep all those from today?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,899
    Sandpit said:

    Betfair next pm after Hunt & Zahawi out:-

    1.8 Penny Mordaunt 55%
    4.7 Rishi Sunak 21%
    5.5 Liz Truss 18%
    19.5 Kemi Badenoch 5%
    30 Tom Tugendhat
    110 Dominic Raab
    110 Suella Braverman

    Raab and Badenoch the value there?
    Not Raab, who takes over (maybe) if Boris falls under a bus, and there is not much time for that if this becomes a coronation.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    edited July 2022
    Topping the ballot in the first round does not always end well for that candidate.

    Just ask Portillo
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    First round in 2019 Johnson got 114 in a much smaller party...

    First round it 2016 May got 165... ditto.

    Any suggestion that Sunak is a position to be lending vote is nonsense

    270 Tory MPs voted AGAINST him...


    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1547251514615500807

    While some Sunak supporters may have loaned votes to other candidates it’s not a great start…
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,296
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sunak vs Truss, Mordaunt or Badenoch nailed on

    No, Sunak needed to do much better than that.
    He only needs another 35 to be guaranteed a top 2 spot. He will get most of Hunt and Tugendhats transfers i think. I cant see him failing to pick up 35
    You're assuming he holds on to his existing votes.
    That is very much not a given.
    Quite

    A lot of MPs will have voted for him simply as the likely winner, the ex COTE, the obvious choice. He is far from that, now

    And he has a lot of negatives

    Who is more likely to win the next election for the Tories, and save the most seats? Is it really Sunak??
  • novanova Posts: 690
    ping said:

    Foxy said:

    Mordaunt vs Starmer would be fascinating. I’m up for it

    Mordaunt is probably best placed to defend seats in the blue Shires, though not obvious Red Wall appeal.
    She has that ex-forces patriotic vibe that could go down well in some Red Wall constituencies, i think. She could probably hold on to a few of them. Some are probably beyond saving already TBH.
    I’m a bit puzzled by her reliance on her supposed “military background”

    Reading her wiki, she seems to have joined in her mid 30’s, not achieved much of note, or seen any action, then left after five years.

    Deeply unimpressive. Am I being unfair?

    Whaddya think @Dura_Ace ? @TOPPING ?
    Her Wiki appears to be based on her profile on TheyWorkForYou, so only covers her after she became an MP in 2010.

    I don't know much about being a reserve, but if she was an acting sub-lieutenant at the time, surely it suggests she'd joined earlier?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,831
    tlg86 said:

    DavidL said:

    Surely Braverman will drop out as well.

    Why? She could get a lot from Zahawi and go above TT.
    So? She’d still go out as will the TiT.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    NEW THREAD!!!
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sunak vs Truss, Mordaunt or Badenoch nailed on

    No, Sunak needed to do much better than that.
    He only needs another 35 to be guaranteed a top 2 spot. He will get most of Hunt and Tugendhats transfers i think. I cant see him failing to pick up 35
    You're assuming he holds on to his existing votes.
    That is very much not a given.
    Fair comment.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,390

    FFS Braverman gets through

    Just - but will not go further
    31 Tory MPs need a visit from a psychiatrist.

    Meanwhile, the logical next step for Tugendhat is to also withdraw. He's not going to pick up transfers from Hunt with Mordaunt and Sunak in the top two, and could even see a few backers drift off.

    A shame the Tories didn't confound us all by having a three day beauty contest and then a single ballot using AV, although it may be as well for TSE's keyboard...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,636
    edited July 2022
    ...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,839
    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    TOPPING said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    ping said:

    Foxy said:

    Mordaunt vs Starmer would be fascinating. I’m up for it

    Mordaunt is probably best placed to defend seats in the blue Shires, though not obvious Red Wall appeal.
    She has that ex-forces patriotic vibe that could go down well in some Red Wall constituencies, i think. She could probably hold on to a few of them. Some are probably beyond saving already TBH.
    I’m a bit puzzled by her reliance on her supposed “military background”

    Reading her wiki, she seems to have joined in her mid 30’s, not achieved much of note, or seen any action, then left after five years.

    Deeply unimpressive. Am I being unfair?

    Whaddya think @Dura_Ace ? @TOPPING ?
    Dura is on record with "not much", though expressed more colourfully.
    She seems to have had a challenging upbringing - father Para Reg hence away a lot, mother died early, she became "primary caregiver" (wiki).

    She is in the RNR (no idea what the difference between RNR and RNVR is) and as such although she didn't do too much it seems (can't see any deployments) she put her name down and was presumably ready to deploy. And might have had to I assume at various points in time.

    So good for her is my view.
    I am unsurprised that you're not quite as cynical as our aviator. :smile:
    I find the forces fetishism a bit naff (we’re not American) so the fact she was a carer from a young age makes me think more highly of her than being RNR. Then again one of my best friends is RNR and I’m amazed he can tie his shoes in the morning so my views may not be representative.
    It's complicated.

    From 2003 to 20-whenever we pulled out of Afghan it meant war fighting so that requires something of people. I wouldn't say fetish-worthy but if you signed up then you knew it was going to get kinetic.

    Since then (and hence for a large part of today's HMF) there are no conflicts as such, just training (eg in Estonia) and eg mentoring/peacekeeping. So not so busy.

    You are right the Americans go overboard imo and we are more "musn't grumble" about it all.

    Everything changed with Iraq/Afghan and all the footage, embedded reporters, and youtube posts, when there was a transformation of HMF from being a dirty little secret (ie NI) to being "heroes".

    Is it a good thing? Not good not bad imo. Certainly HMF were overlooked/under-appreciated especially for Op Banner for many years.

    *SOBS*
    Probably where I am tbf. The forces should be treated well but “our brave lads” is cringe. I get particularly upset with the treatment veterans often get from the state (something Labour should go harder on).
    Didn't help that the specialist military (including naval) hospitals were closed down.
    They were not viable, and a drain on forces medical resources to staff. The current system of military wards at major hospitals is a better one.
    Good to have your up to date view; thanks. Wasn't there a time when there were fewer such wards? Things do seem to be improving. I seem to remember a particularly sticky patch a decade or two back.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,361

    Rishi's gameplan surely has to be to shore up Tom, try to get him to knock out Penny.

    He doesn't have enough votes to do that. He needs all the votes he can get to make the final two with as strong a showing as possible. Then he has to hope he can win people over in the hustings.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,567
    Can I just say, I never thought Hunt would make much of a splash. Disappointed that my MP was one of his early pledges.

    Be curious to see how he jumps now.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,592
    OnboardG1 said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    ping said:

    Foxy said:

    Mordaunt vs Starmer would be fascinating. I’m up for it

    Mordaunt is probably best placed to defend seats in the blue Shires, though not obvious Red Wall appeal.
    She has that ex-forces patriotic vibe that could go down well in some Red Wall constituencies, i think. She could probably hold on to a few of them. Some are probably beyond saving already TBH.
    I’m a bit puzzled by her reliance on her supposed “military background”

    Reading her wiki, she seems to have joined in her mid 30’s, not achieved much of note, or seen any action, then left after five years.

    Deeply unimpressive. Am I being unfair?

    Whaddya think @Dura_Ace ? @TOPPING ?
    Dura is on record with "not much", though expressed more colourfully.
    She seems to have had a challenging upbringing - father Para Reg hence away a lot, mother died early, she became "primary caregiver" (wiki).

    She is in the RNR (no idea what the difference between RNR and RNVR is) and as such although she didn't do too much it seems (can't see any deployments) she put her name down and was presumably ready to deploy. And might have had to I assume at various points in time.

    So good for her is my view.
    I am unsurprised that you're not quite as cynical as our aviator. :smile:
    I find the forces fetishism a bit naff (we’re not American) so the fact she was a carer from a young age makes me think more highly of her than being RNR. Then again one of my best friends is RNR and I’m amazed he can tie his shoes in the morning so my views may not be representative.
    I wouldn't call it 'fetishism' in most cases. Most of us have relatively cushy lives. Out of choice, I have spent nights bivvying and camping in cold and damp places. But that was my choice, with the knowledge that if things got bad I could pay to be in a hotel in a couple of nights (in most cases).

    I try to see people who do necessary but nasty jobs in a positive manner. Like binmen or nurses.

    It is necessary to have a military, and it can be a sh*t job. Except military people might die, or have to kill, in their jobs. And live for long periods away from their loved ones. And for poor pay.

    So it's not fetishisation; it's a knowledge that people are risking a lot doing a necessary job.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    Was Boris the 358th MP?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    Daniel Kawczynski (Hunt supporter) comes close to saying he will switch to Penny, on Sky.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,828
    Worrying thing about Mordaunt is the lack of big hitters backing her.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821

    This thread got less than 30 votes!

This discussion has been closed.