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Latest betting next CON leader and PM – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    Truss only 50.lolololol
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,672
    Andy_JS said:

    Sunak 88
    Mordaunt 67
    Truss 50
    Badenoch 40
    Tugendhat 37
    Braverman 32
    Zahawi 25
    Hunt 18

    Interesting!!
  • Options
    jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261
    Smaller margin for Sunak than expected?
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,026
    edited July 2022
    Sandpit said:

    Okay, prediction:

    Mourdaunt
    Badenoch
    Sunak
    Truss
    Tugendhat
    Zahawi
    Braverman
    Hunt

    Sunak
    Mordaunt
    Badenoch
    Tugsy
    Truss
    Braverman
    Zahawi
    Hun

    *Edit* last one as in "u ok?"
  • Options
    solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623
    Nae luck for NZ. LOL.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    Get in Kemi!
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    Only Hunt and Zahawi out.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,454
    Zahawi and Hunt eliminated!
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    Hunt and Zahawi toast.

    Braverman (32) and Tugendhat (37) quite toasty.....
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Damn it, Hunt messed up my nice Zahawi bet.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,403
    OnboardG1 said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    ping said:

    Foxy said:

    Mordaunt vs Starmer would be fascinating. I’m up for it

    Mordaunt is probably best placed to defend seats in the blue Shires, though not obvious Red Wall appeal.
    She has that ex-forces patriotic vibe that could go down well in some Red Wall constituencies, i think. She could probably hold on to a few of them. Some are probably beyond saving already TBH.
    I’m a bit puzzled by her reliance on her supposed “military background”

    Reading her wiki, she seems to have joined in her mid 30’s, not achieved much of note, or seen any action, then left after five years.

    Deeply unimpressive. Am I being unfair?

    Whaddya think @Dura_Ace ? @TOPPING ?
    Dura is on record with "not much", though expressed more colourfully.
    She seems to have had a challenging upbringing - father Para Reg hence away a lot, mother died early, she became "primary caregiver" (wiki).

    She is in the RNR (no idea what the difference between RNR and RNVR is) and as such although she didn't do too much it seems (can't see any deployments) she put her name down and was presumably ready to deploy. And might have had to I assume at various points in time.

    So good for her is my view.
    I am unsurprised that you're not quite as cynical as our aviator. :smile:
    I find the forces fetishism a bit naff (we’re not American) so the fact she was a carer from a young age makes me think more highly of her than being RNR. Then again one of my best friends is RNR and I’m amazed he can tie his shoes in the morning so my views may not be representative.
    It's complicated.

    From 2003 to 20-whenever we pulled out of Afghan it meant war fighting so that requires something of people. I wouldn't say fetish-worthy but if you signed up then you knew it was going to get kinetic.

    Since then (and hence for a large part of today's HMF) there are no conflicts as such, just training (eg in Estonia) and eg mentoring/peacekeeping. So not so busy.

    You are right the Americans go overboard imo and we are more "musn't grumble" about it all.

    Everything changed with Iraq/Afghan and all the footage, embedded reporters, and youtube posts, when there was a transformation of HMF from being a dirty little secret (ie NI) to being "heroes".

    Is it a good thing? Not good not bad imo. Certainly HMF were overlooked/under-appreciated especially for Op Banner for many years.

    *SOBS*
  • Options
    MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    edited July 2022
    rcs1000 said:

    And while we're here... this is the UK:

    Interesting perspective. It looks from the numbers that the euro could weaken a whole lot further before it really becomes a problem for the ECB.

    Dunno.
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,522
    Andy_JS said:

    Sunak 88
    Mordaunt 67
    Truss 50
    Badenoch 40
    Tugendhat 37
    Braverman 32
    Zahawi 25
    Hunt 18

    Shocking for Rishi. Brilliant for Badenoch.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,375

    FFS Braverman gets through

    Just - but will not go further
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,002
    You can probably add most of Braverman's votes to Badenoch.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    So where does Hunt and Zahawi votes go?

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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,800
    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Rishi drifts… out to 5

    People know something clearly.
    Marginal movement tho

    However Unibet has Mordaunt at 2/5 which is notable
    Bookmakers with one side only of the price can pitch any way they choose. The prices that high-street bookmakers offer have no meaning.
    Well, they're not saying Mordaunt is a 30/1 shot, so they have meaning
    Yeah. Sorry I apologise. Their odds offered represent the maximal chance. And generally the maximal chance of being ripped off.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    43 votes to redistribute next round.
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    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,224

    Andy_JS said:

    Sunak 88
    Mordaunt 67
    Truss 50
    Badenoch 40
    Tugendhat 37
    Braverman 32
    Zahawi 25
    Hunt 18

    Interesting!!
    Still all to play for 👍
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,207
    Rishi Sunak - 24.6%
    Penny Mordaunt - 18.8%
    Liz Truss - 14.0%
    Kemi Badenoch - 11.2%
    Tom Tugendhat - 10.4%
    Suella Braverman - 9.0%
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,553

    If Sunak doesn't get it, is that the end of his political career? He might try and do a Clegg.

    Sunak can retire and do a Leon, posting pictures from empty bars around the world.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,403
    Carnyx said:

    TOPPING said:

    Carnyx said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    ping said:

    Foxy said:

    Mordaunt vs Starmer would be fascinating. I’m up for it

    Mordaunt is probably best placed to defend seats in the blue Shires, though not obvious Red Wall appeal.
    She has that ex-forces patriotic vibe that could go down well in some Red Wall constituencies, i think. She could probably hold on to a few of them. Some are probably beyond saving already TBH.
    I’m a bit puzzled by her reliance on her supposed “military background”

    Reading her wiki, she seems to have joined in her mid 30’s, not achieved much of note, or seen any action, then left after five years.

    Deeply unimpressive. Am I being unfair?

    Whaddya think @Dura_Ace ? @TOPPING ?
    Dura is on record with "not much", though expressed more colourfully.
    She seems to have had a challenging upbringing - father Para Reg hence away a lot, mother died early, she became "primary caregiver" (wiki).

    She is in the RNR (no idea what the difference between RNR and RNVR is) and as such although she didn't do too much it seems (can't see any deployments) she put her name down and was presumably ready to deploy. And might have had to I assume at various points in time.

    So good for her is my view.
    RNR is or at least was a period of reserve after you've done a contract of full-time matelot in the Andrew. RNVR is when you've never been a full-timer.
    tyvm

    And that could be one of the most magnificent typos in PB history.
    What typo? No misspellings there at all. Idiom may be a problem - Andrew = RN.
    Ahhh - hadn't heard that. Just associated it with HRH The Person.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,188
    edited July 2022
    Sunak vs Truss, Mordaunt or Badenoch nailed on
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,920
    Andy_JS said:

    Sunak 88
    Mordaunt 67
    Truss 50
    Badenoch 40
    Tugendhat 37
    Braverman 32
    Zahawi 25
    Hunt 18

    357 votes cast.

    Penny doing well there
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,062
    edited July 2022
    Roughly what you would expect. Badenoch ahead of Tugendhat.
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    So Hunt and Tugendhat votes go to Penny?
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,207

    Sunak vs Truss, Mordaunt or Badenoch nailed on

    Sunak is nowhere near nailed on for the final two.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,832
    tlg86 said:

    Kemi Badenoch - 40
    Suella Braverman - 32
    Jeremy Hunt - 18
    Penny Mordaunt - 67
    Rishi Sunak - 88
    Liz Truss - 50
    Tom Tugendhat - 37
    Nadhim Zahawi - 25

    Hunt fewer than the 20 who nominated him...
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,002

    So Hunt and Tugendhat votes go to Penny?

    Some will go to Truss, a few to Sunak.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,375

    Sunak vs Truss, Mordaunt or Badenoch nailed on

    Very likely
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Good showing for Kemi, and the ERG clearly pushed Braverman. Hunt and Zahawi votes probably transfer quite well to Sunak, but Penny has the big mo'
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    Sunak vs Truss, Mordaunt or Badenoch nailed on

    No, Sunak needed to do much better than that.
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    Maudaunt into the final two IMHO.

    Politics is healing!
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,454
    Crazy 88 :)
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,719

    Andy_JS said:

    Sunak 88
    Mordaunt 67
    Truss 50
    Badenoch 40
    Tugendhat 37
    Braverman 32
    Zahawi 25
    Hunt 18

    Shocking for Rishi. Brilliant for Badenoch.
    Yes, she could leapfrog The Truss on those numbers.
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,522
    Beth Rigby thinks Rishi will be “delighted” with that result. I think it’s very disappointing personally.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,141
    Beth Rigby (yes, I know, I know) says Sunak's team will be delighted with 88.

    But, I'd expect Penny to top the poll tomorrow regardless of what Rigby says.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,207
    357 MPs voted. Does that mean everyone voted?
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    Hunt is humiliated. He will stand down at the next election
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,002
    The rumours about Hunt turned out to be true.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,919
    TOPPING said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    ping said:

    Foxy said:

    Mordaunt vs Starmer would be fascinating. I’m up for it

    Mordaunt is probably best placed to defend seats in the blue Shires, though not obvious Red Wall appeal.
    She has that ex-forces patriotic vibe that could go down well in some Red Wall constituencies, i think. She could probably hold on to a few of them. Some are probably beyond saving already TBH.
    I’m a bit puzzled by her reliance on her supposed “military background”

    Reading her wiki, she seems to have joined in her mid 30’s, not achieved much of note, or seen any action, then left after five years.

    Deeply unimpressive. Am I being unfair?

    Whaddya think @Dura_Ace ? @TOPPING ?
    Dura is on record with "not much", though expressed more colourfully.
    She seems to have had a challenging upbringing - father Para Reg hence away a lot, mother died early, she became "primary caregiver" (wiki).

    She is in the RNR (no idea what the difference between RNR and RNVR is) and as such although she didn't do too much it seems (can't see any deployments) she put her name down and was presumably ready to deploy. And might have had to I assume at various points in time.

    So good for her is my view.
    I am unsurprised that you're not quite as cynical as our aviator. :smile:
    I find the forces fetishism a bit naff (we’re not American) so the fact she was a carer from a young age makes me think more highly of her than being RNR. Then again one of my best friends is RNR and I’m amazed he can tie his shoes in the morning so my views may not be representative.
    It's complicated.

    From 2003 to 20-whenever we pulled out of Afghan it meant war fighting so that requires something of people. I wouldn't say fetish-worthy but if you signed up then you knew it was going to get kinetic.

    Since then (and hence for a large part of today's HMF) there are no conflicts as such, just training (eg in Estonia) and eg mentoring/peacekeeping. So not so busy.

    You are right the Americans go overboard imo and we are more "musn't grumble" about it all.

    Everything changed with Iraq/Afghan and all the footage, embedded reporters, and youtube posts, when there was a transformation of HMF from being a dirty little secret (ie NI) to being "heroes".

    Is it a good thing? Not good not bad imo. Certainly HMF were overlooked/under-appreciated especially for Op Banner for many years.

    *SOBS*
    Navy not usually* so involved at the sharp edge, mind, unless you were a bold pilot or aircrew such as DA. But plenty of sometimes fairly miserable traipsing around the globe and patrolling to and fro on uncomfortable lumps of machinery with odd corners left over for the living inhabitants to arrange themselves in.

    *But pretty risky at times - for instance in the Persian/Arabian Gulf.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,550
    Mordaunt is more likely to be in the final two than Sunak

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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,719

    FFS Braverman gets through

    She should withdraw this evening and endorse Kemi.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    Sandpit said:

    Sunak vs Truss, Mordaunt or Badenoch nailed on

    No, Sunak needed to do much better than that.
    Indeed. Where are his additional votes coming from? The Chancellor? No. Hunt - expect his vote to fracture.
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    I would be over the moon with Mordaunt vs Starmer, sensible bland politics is back on the menu
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Fantastic for Mordaunt v good for Badenoch
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,553
    Betfair next pm after Hunt & Zahawi out:-

    1.8 Penny Mordaunt 55%
    4.7 Rishi Sunak 21%
    5.5 Liz Truss 18%
    19.5 Kemi Badenoch 5%
    30 Tom Tugendhat
    110 Dominic Raab
    110 Suella Braverman
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,002
    edited July 2022
    tlg86 said:

    357 MPs voted. Does that mean everyone voted?

    One MP didn't or spoilt their paper. Electorate is 358.
  • Options
    OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,346
    TOPPING said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    ping said:

    Foxy said:

    Mordaunt vs Starmer would be fascinating. I’m up for it

    Mordaunt is probably best placed to defend seats in the blue Shires, though not obvious Red Wall appeal.
    She has that ex-forces patriotic vibe that could go down well in some Red Wall constituencies, i think. She could probably hold on to a few of them. Some are probably beyond saving already TBH.
    I’m a bit puzzled by her reliance on her supposed “military background”

    Reading her wiki, she seems to have joined in her mid 30’s, not achieved much of note, or seen any action, then left after five years.

    Deeply unimpressive. Am I being unfair?

    Whaddya think @Dura_Ace ? @TOPPING ?
    Dura is on record with "not much", though expressed more colourfully.
    She seems to have had a challenging upbringing - father Para Reg hence away a lot, mother died early, she became "primary caregiver" (wiki).

    She is in the RNR (no idea what the difference between RNR and RNVR is) and as such although she didn't do too much it seems (can't see any deployments) she put her name down and was presumably ready to deploy. And might have had to I assume at various points in time.

    So good for her is my view.
    I am unsurprised that you're not quite as cynical as our aviator. :smile:
    I find the forces fetishism a bit naff (we’re not American) so the fact she was a carer from a young age makes me think more highly of her than being RNR. Then again one of my best friends is RNR and I’m amazed he can tie his shoes in the morning so my views may not be representative.
    It's complicated.

    From 2003 to 20-whenever we pulled out of Afghan it meant war fighting so that requires something of people. I wouldn't say fetish-worthy but if you signed up then you knew it was going to get kinetic.

    Since then (and hence for a large part of today's HMF) there are no conflicts as such, just training (eg in Estonia) and eg mentoring/peacekeeping. So not so busy.

    You are right the Americans go overboard imo and we are more "musn't grumble" about it all.

    Everything changed with Iraq/Afghan and all the footage, embedded reporters, and youtube posts, when there was a transformation of HMF from being a dirty little secret (ie NI) to being "heroes".

    Is it a good thing? Not good not bad imo. Certainly HMF were overlooked/under-appreciated especially for Op Banner for many years.

    *SOBS*
    Probably where I am tbf. The forces should be treated well but “our brave lads” is cringe. I get particularly upset with the treatment veterans often get from the state (something Labour should go harder on).
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,397
    Surely Braverman will drop out as well.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,002

    Beth Rigby thinks Rishi will be “delighted” with that result. I think it’s very disappointing personally.

    Her analysis is terrible. Ignoring Badenoch completely.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,141
    Rishi's gameplan surely has to be to shore up Tom, try to get him to knock out Penny.

  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,188
    edited July 2022
    Sandpit said:

    Sunak vs Truss, Mordaunt or Badenoch nailed on

    No, Sunak needed to do much better than that.
    He only needs another 35 to be guaranteed a top 2 spot. He will get most of Hunt and Tugendhats transfers i think. I cant see him failing to pick up 35
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Kemi Badenoch - 40
    Suella Braverman - 32
    Jeremy Hunt - 18
    Penny Mordaunt - 67
    Rishi Sunak - 88
    Liz Truss - 50
    Tom Tugendhat - 37
    Nadhim Zahawi - 25

    Hunt fewer than the 20 who nominated him...
    "You're bastards! You're all lying bastards!!"
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,026
    357 total, I think. Who didn't vote? Is it the One Who No Longer Attends?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,602
    tlg86 said:

    357 MPs voted. Does that mean everyone voted?

    Except Boris Johnson.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,207
    Extra votes required to be certain of making the final two:

    Rishi Sunak - 32
    Penny Mordaunt - 53
    Liz Truss - 70
    Kemi Badenoch - 80
    Tom Tugendhat - 83
    Suella Braverman - 88
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,919
    OnboardG1 said:

    TOPPING said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    ping said:

    Foxy said:

    Mordaunt vs Starmer would be fascinating. I’m up for it

    Mordaunt is probably best placed to defend seats in the blue Shires, though not obvious Red Wall appeal.
    She has that ex-forces patriotic vibe that could go down well in some Red Wall constituencies, i think. She could probably hold on to a few of them. Some are probably beyond saving already TBH.
    I’m a bit puzzled by her reliance on her supposed “military background”

    Reading her wiki, she seems to have joined in her mid 30’s, not achieved much of note, or seen any action, then left after five years.

    Deeply unimpressive. Am I being unfair?

    Whaddya think @Dura_Ace ? @TOPPING ?
    Dura is on record with "not much", though expressed more colourfully.
    She seems to have had a challenging upbringing - father Para Reg hence away a lot, mother died early, she became "primary caregiver" (wiki).

    She is in the RNR (no idea what the difference between RNR and RNVR is) and as such although she didn't do too much it seems (can't see any deployments) she put her name down and was presumably ready to deploy. And might have had to I assume at various points in time.

    So good for her is my view.
    I am unsurprised that you're not quite as cynical as our aviator. :smile:
    I find the forces fetishism a bit naff (we’re not American) so the fact she was a carer from a young age makes me think more highly of her than being RNR. Then again one of my best friends is RNR and I’m amazed he can tie his shoes in the morning so my views may not be representative.
    It's complicated.

    From 2003 to 20-whenever we pulled out of Afghan it meant war fighting so that requires something of people. I wouldn't say fetish-worthy but if you signed up then you knew it was going to get kinetic.

    Since then (and hence for a large part of today's HMF) there are no conflicts as such, just training (eg in Estonia) and eg mentoring/peacekeeping. So not so busy.

    You are right the Americans go overboard imo and we are more "musn't grumble" about it all.

    Everything changed with Iraq/Afghan and all the footage, embedded reporters, and youtube posts, when there was a transformation of HMF from being a dirty little secret (ie NI) to being "heroes".

    Is it a good thing? Not good not bad imo. Certainly HMF were overlooked/under-appreciated especially for Op Banner for many years.

    *SOBS*
    Probably where I am tbf. The forces should be treated well but “our brave lads” is cringe. I get particularly upset with the treatment veterans often get from the state (something Labour should go harder on).
    Didn't help that the specialist military (including naval) hospitals were closed down.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,832

    Andy_JS said:

    Sunak 88
    Mordaunt 67
    Truss 50
    Badenoch 40
    Tugendhat 37
    Braverman 32
    Zahawi 25
    Hunt 18

    Shocking for Rishi. Brilliant for Badenoch.
    Yes, she could leapfrog The Truss on those numbers.
    I don't think she makes the cut though.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,015
    Andy_JS said:

    tlg86 said:

    357 MPs voted. Does that mean everyone voted?

    One MP didn't or spoilt their paper. Electorate is 358.
    I hear they scrawled Boris Johnson!!! on their ballot.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    Betfair next pm after Hunt & Zahawi out:-

    1.8 Penny Mordaunt 55%
    4.7 Rishi Sunak 21%
    5.5 Liz Truss 18%
    19.5 Kemi Badenoch 5%
    30 Tom Tugendhat
    110 Dominic Raab
    110 Suella Braverman

    Raab and Badenoch the value there?
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,207
    DavidL said:

    Surely Braverman will drop out as well.

    Why? She could get a lot from Zahawi and go above TT.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,397
    Goodish result for Badenock. She can stay at least another round. Tugendhat highly marginal.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,146

    Rishi's gameplan surely has to be to shore up Tom, try to get him to knock out Penny.

    Tugendhat is starting from too low. There's no path for him to overtake Truss or Mordaunt.
  • Options
    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831

    tlg86 said:

    357 MPs voted. Does that mean everyone voted?

    Except Boris Johnson.
    Johnson voted via a proxy
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,522
    At least Zahawi is out. Rejoice.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,553
    Andy_JS said:

    tlg86 said:

    357 MPs voted. Does that mean everyone voted?

    One MP didn't or spoilt their paper. Electorate is 358.
    Boris?
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,027

    tlg86 said:

    357 MPs voted. Does that mean everyone voted?

    Except Boris Johnson.
    Boris did vote but his write in candidate, one A.B. Johnson, didn't count.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,827

    Sandpit said:

    Sunak vs Truss, Mordaunt or Badenoch nailed on

    No, Sunak needed to do much better than that.
    He only needs another 35 to be guaranteed a top 2 spot. He will get most of Hunt and Tugendhats transfers i think. I cant see him failing to pick up 35
    You're assuming he holds on to his existing votes.
    That is very much not a given.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,002
    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Kemi Badenoch - 40
    Suella Braverman - 32
    Jeremy Hunt - 18
    Penny Mordaunt - 67
    Rishi Sunak - 88
    Liz Truss - 50
    Tom Tugendhat - 37
    Nadhim Zahawi - 25

    Hunt fewer than the 20 who nominated him...
    So he did get nominations from Sunak.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,832
    Carnyx said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    TOPPING said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    ping said:

    Foxy said:

    Mordaunt vs Starmer would be fascinating. I’m up for it

    Mordaunt is probably best placed to defend seats in the blue Shires, though not obvious Red Wall appeal.
    She has that ex-forces patriotic vibe that could go down well in some Red Wall constituencies, i think. She could probably hold on to a few of them. Some are probably beyond saving already TBH.
    I’m a bit puzzled by her reliance on her supposed “military background”

    Reading her wiki, she seems to have joined in her mid 30’s, not achieved much of note, or seen any action, then left after five years.

    Deeply unimpressive. Am I being unfair?

    Whaddya think @Dura_Ace ? @TOPPING ?
    Dura is on record with "not much", though expressed more colourfully.
    She seems to have had a challenging upbringing - father Para Reg hence away a lot, mother died early, she became "primary caregiver" (wiki).

    She is in the RNR (no idea what the difference between RNR and RNVR is) and as such although she didn't do too much it seems (can't see any deployments) she put her name down and was presumably ready to deploy. And might have had to I assume at various points in time.

    So good for her is my view.
    I am unsurprised that you're not quite as cynical as our aviator. :smile:
    I find the forces fetishism a bit naff (we’re not American) so the fact she was a carer from a young age makes me think more highly of her than being RNR. Then again one of my best friends is RNR and I’m amazed he can tie his shoes in the morning so my views may not be representative.
    It's complicated.

    From 2003 to 20-whenever we pulled out of Afghan it meant war fighting so that requires something of people. I wouldn't say fetish-worthy but if you signed up then you knew it was going to get kinetic.

    Since then (and hence for a large part of today's HMF) there are no conflicts as such, just training (eg in Estonia) and eg mentoring/peacekeeping. So not so busy.

    You are right the Americans go overboard imo and we are more "musn't grumble" about it all.

    Everything changed with Iraq/Afghan and all the footage, embedded reporters, and youtube posts, when there was a transformation of HMF from being a dirty little secret (ie NI) to being "heroes".

    Is it a good thing? Not good not bad imo. Certainly HMF were overlooked/under-appreciated especially for Op Banner for many years.

    *SOBS*
    Probably where I am tbf. The forces should be treated well but “our brave lads” is cringe. I get particularly upset with the treatment veterans often get from the state (something Labour should go harder on).
    Didn't help that the specialist military (including naval) hospitals were closed down.
    They were not viable, and a drain on forces medical resources to staff. The current system of military wards at major hospitals is a better one.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,602

    NEW THREAD

  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,141
    tlg86 said:

    Extra votes required to be certain of making the final two:

    Rishi Sunak - 32
    Penny Mordaunt - 53
    Liz Truss - 70
    Kemi Badenoch - 80
    Tom Tugendhat - 83
    Suella Braverman - 88

    Presumably however you can change your vote each round, so it's not certain you keep all those from today?
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,553
    Sandpit said:

    Betfair next pm after Hunt & Zahawi out:-

    1.8 Penny Mordaunt 55%
    4.7 Rishi Sunak 21%
    5.5 Liz Truss 18%
    19.5 Kemi Badenoch 5%
    30 Tom Tugendhat
    110 Dominic Raab
    110 Suella Braverman

    Raab and Badenoch the value there?
    Not Raab, who takes over (maybe) if Boris falls under a bus, and there is not much time for that if this becomes a coronation.
  • Options
    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    edited July 2022
    Topping the ballot in the first round does not always end well for that candidate.

    Just ask Portillo
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,788
    First round in 2019 Johnson got 114 in a much smaller party...

    First round it 2016 May got 165... ditto.

    Any suggestion that Sunak is a position to be lending vote is nonsense

    270 Tory MPs voted AGAINST him...


    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1547251514615500807

    While some Sunak supporters may have loaned votes to other candidates it’s not a great start…
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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,550
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sunak vs Truss, Mordaunt or Badenoch nailed on

    No, Sunak needed to do much better than that.
    He only needs another 35 to be guaranteed a top 2 spot. He will get most of Hunt and Tugendhats transfers i think. I cant see him failing to pick up 35
    You're assuming he holds on to his existing votes.
    That is very much not a given.
    Quite

    A lot of MPs will have voted for him simply as the likely winner, the ex COTE, the obvious choice. He is far from that, now

    And he has a lot of negatives

    Who is more likely to win the next election for the Tories, and save the most seats? Is it really Sunak??
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    novanova Posts: 525
    ping said:

    Foxy said:

    Mordaunt vs Starmer would be fascinating. I’m up for it

    Mordaunt is probably best placed to defend seats in the blue Shires, though not obvious Red Wall appeal.
    She has that ex-forces patriotic vibe that could go down well in some Red Wall constituencies, i think. She could probably hold on to a few of them. Some are probably beyond saving already TBH.
    I’m a bit puzzled by her reliance on her supposed “military background”

    Reading her wiki, she seems to have joined in her mid 30’s, not achieved much of note, or seen any action, then left after five years.

    Deeply unimpressive. Am I being unfair?

    Whaddya think @Dura_Ace ? @TOPPING ?
    Her Wiki appears to be based on her profile on TheyWorkForYou, so only covers her after she became an MP in 2010.

    I don't know much about being a reserve, but if she was an acting sub-lieutenant at the time, surely it suggests she'd joined earlier?
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,397
    tlg86 said:

    DavidL said:

    Surely Braverman will drop out as well.

    Why? She could get a lot from Zahawi and go above TT.
    So? She’d still go out as will the TiT.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,207
    NEW THREAD!!!
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,188
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sunak vs Truss, Mordaunt or Badenoch nailed on

    No, Sunak needed to do much better than that.
    He only needs another 35 to be guaranteed a top 2 spot. He will get most of Hunt and Tugendhats transfers i think. I cant see him failing to pick up 35
    You're assuming he holds on to his existing votes.
    That is very much not a given.
    Fair comment.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,411

    FFS Braverman gets through

    Just - but will not go further
    31 Tory MPs need a visit from a psychiatrist.

    Meanwhile, the logical next step for Tugendhat is to also withdraw. He's not going to pick up transfers from Hunt with Mordaunt and Sunak in the top two, and could even see a few backers drift off.

    A shame the Tories didn't confound us all by having a three day beauty contest and then a single ballot using AV, although it may be as well for TSE's keyboard...
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,146
    edited July 2022
    ...
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,919
    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    TOPPING said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    ping said:

    Foxy said:

    Mordaunt vs Starmer would be fascinating. I’m up for it

    Mordaunt is probably best placed to defend seats in the blue Shires, though not obvious Red Wall appeal.
    She has that ex-forces patriotic vibe that could go down well in some Red Wall constituencies, i think. She could probably hold on to a few of them. Some are probably beyond saving already TBH.
    I’m a bit puzzled by her reliance on her supposed “military background”

    Reading her wiki, she seems to have joined in her mid 30’s, not achieved much of note, or seen any action, then left after five years.

    Deeply unimpressive. Am I being unfair?

    Whaddya think @Dura_Ace ? @TOPPING ?
    Dura is on record with "not much", though expressed more colourfully.
    She seems to have had a challenging upbringing - father Para Reg hence away a lot, mother died early, she became "primary caregiver" (wiki).

    She is in the RNR (no idea what the difference between RNR and RNVR is) and as such although she didn't do too much it seems (can't see any deployments) she put her name down and was presumably ready to deploy. And might have had to I assume at various points in time.

    So good for her is my view.
    I am unsurprised that you're not quite as cynical as our aviator. :smile:
    I find the forces fetishism a bit naff (we’re not American) so the fact she was a carer from a young age makes me think more highly of her than being RNR. Then again one of my best friends is RNR and I’m amazed he can tie his shoes in the morning so my views may not be representative.
    It's complicated.

    From 2003 to 20-whenever we pulled out of Afghan it meant war fighting so that requires something of people. I wouldn't say fetish-worthy but if you signed up then you knew it was going to get kinetic.

    Since then (and hence for a large part of today's HMF) there are no conflicts as such, just training (eg in Estonia) and eg mentoring/peacekeeping. So not so busy.

    You are right the Americans go overboard imo and we are more "musn't grumble" about it all.

    Everything changed with Iraq/Afghan and all the footage, embedded reporters, and youtube posts, when there was a transformation of HMF from being a dirty little secret (ie NI) to being "heroes".

    Is it a good thing? Not good not bad imo. Certainly HMF were overlooked/under-appreciated especially for Op Banner for many years.

    *SOBS*
    Probably where I am tbf. The forces should be treated well but “our brave lads” is cringe. I get particularly upset with the treatment veterans often get from the state (something Labour should go harder on).
    Didn't help that the specialist military (including naval) hospitals were closed down.
    They were not viable, and a drain on forces medical resources to staff. The current system of military wards at major hospitals is a better one.
    Good to have your up to date view; thanks. Wasn't there a time when there were fewer such wards? Things do seem to be improving. I seem to remember a particularly sticky patch a decade or two back.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,431

    Rishi's gameplan surely has to be to shore up Tom, try to get him to knock out Penny.

    He doesn't have enough votes to do that. He needs all the votes he can get to make the final two with as strong a showing as possible. Then he has to hope he can win people over in the hustings.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    Can I just say, I never thought Hunt would make much of a splash. Disappointed that my MP was one of his early pledges.

    Be curious to see how he jumps now.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,075
    OnboardG1 said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    ping said:

    Foxy said:

    Mordaunt vs Starmer would be fascinating. I’m up for it

    Mordaunt is probably best placed to defend seats in the blue Shires, though not obvious Red Wall appeal.
    She has that ex-forces patriotic vibe that could go down well in some Red Wall constituencies, i think. She could probably hold on to a few of them. Some are probably beyond saving already TBH.
    I’m a bit puzzled by her reliance on her supposed “military background”

    Reading her wiki, she seems to have joined in her mid 30’s, not achieved much of note, or seen any action, then left after five years.

    Deeply unimpressive. Am I being unfair?

    Whaddya think @Dura_Ace ? @TOPPING ?
    Dura is on record with "not much", though expressed more colourfully.
    She seems to have had a challenging upbringing - father Para Reg hence away a lot, mother died early, she became "primary caregiver" (wiki).

    She is in the RNR (no idea what the difference between RNR and RNVR is) and as such although she didn't do too much it seems (can't see any deployments) she put her name down and was presumably ready to deploy. And might have had to I assume at various points in time.

    So good for her is my view.
    I am unsurprised that you're not quite as cynical as our aviator. :smile:
    I find the forces fetishism a bit naff (we’re not American) so the fact she was a carer from a young age makes me think more highly of her than being RNR. Then again one of my best friends is RNR and I’m amazed he can tie his shoes in the morning so my views may not be representative.
    I wouldn't call it 'fetishism' in most cases. Most of us have relatively cushy lives. Out of choice, I have spent nights bivvying and camping in cold and damp places. But that was my choice, with the knowledge that if things got bad I could pay to be in a hotel in a couple of nights (in most cases).

    I try to see people who do necessary but nasty jobs in a positive manner. Like binmen or nurses.

    It is necessary to have a military, and it can be a sh*t job. Except military people might die, or have to kill, in their jobs. And live for long periods away from their loved ones. And for poor pay.

    So it's not fetishisation; it's a knowledge that people are risking a lot doing a necessary job.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,454
    Was Boris the 358th MP?
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,522
    Daniel Kawczynski (Hunt supporter) comes close to saying he will switch to Penny, on Sky.
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,062
    Worrying thing about Mordaunt is the lack of big hitters backing her.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,454

    This thread got less than 30 votes!

This discussion has been closed.