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Latest betting next CON leader and PM – politicalbetting.com
Latest betting next CON leader and PM – politicalbetting.com
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Latest betting next CON leader and PM – politicalbetting.com
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@DPJHodges
Rumours circulating Hunt preparing to pull out.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1547230238660345857
AFAIK there’s no suggestion of fancy tax schemes from Truss or Penny, unless someone can enlighten me?
https://twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/1547231964918423552
We shall find out soon!
I looked into betdata and it seemed they had some kind of delay. Which makes their product a bit pointless.
I might pay for a decent real-time product if I could figure out how to integrate it into something useful. Alas it’s beyond my technical abilities, and the product doesn’t seem to be real-time.
Though also likely that one of the trio will be CoE.
https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1547226499903791105
@GBNEWS 🚨 | BREAKING: Understand from a top '22 committee source that Penny Mordaunt surpasses Sunak in a startlingly unexpected outcome, with Liz Truss knocking Rishi out of the park and securing second place in the MPs' ballots.
Further proof that it's always the undeclared votes...
French Senate finds Liverpool fans were unfairly blamed for unrest.
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2022/jul/13/liverpool-fans-unfairly-blamed-for-champions-league-final-chaos-paris-french-senate-report
Maybe not the winner this time, but big help to the team that 'signed' her.
There's going to be a few more tough months IMO but then we'll start to see base effects kick in because energy costs had already begun to surge in late 2021 and all we'll be left with is the effect of weaker sterling (still substantial tbf) by the start of next year.
The next PM needs to get a handle on costs and get moving with huge supply side reform. Kemi gets it, the sticking plaster rebates are addressing the symptoms of inflation rather than the cause (not enough investment in electricity generation) and we need to get moving with solving our deep economic to unlock future growth and the nation's potential rather than just giving away minor one off rebates.
The Tories would do well to get Kemi in the final two so she gets a national platform to speak about her ideas.
Rishi has no ideas.
Truss just has no idea full stop.
"Tom Randall, MP for Gedling
@Tom_Randall
3h
The first round of the Conservative Party leadership election takes place today from 1.30pm. I’m backing @KemiBadenoch to be our next leader and the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom."
https://twitter.com/Tom_Randall/status/1547173791238864896
Hahaahahahahahahahahaa.
The pretext was set up a couple of weeks ago for an M5S walkout during a rare Grillo outing to Rome, with 'a claim that Draghi regarded M5S leader Conte as a no-mark and tried with the party hierarchy to get him removed as party leader.
The clear the air talks since have resulted in a whole raft of policy demands from M5S around an assistance package or they walk. The conclusion of that threat comes in votes in the next few days.
Technically the unity government retain a majority even without the diminished M5S bloc, but there are a lot of noises from elsewhere that, if M5S goes we dissolve it there, both from Draghi perhaps resigning, to parties saying, right, September election.
If not now, then the budget cycle means they'd likely have to fight through till the spring for a GE fairly near full term.
For a September election though, M5S having caused the end would be unwelcome in the left coalition, which would look to the centre to make its tent competitive. In any case, PM Meloni would loom large.
Yes I should have linked the tweet. But I’m on my phone in the bright Montenegrin sun
I’d be reserving that department for Truss if she loses (you’ve got to keep her in the tent, but…)
Russia will murder most of the men and say "they were killed by Ukraine shelling their own cities...."
1.75
New poll from @SavantaComRes finds just 11% of the public and 16% of Conservative voters can correctly name Penny Mordaunt when shown a photo of her.
Sunak 66%
Truss 33%
Mordaunt 11%
So I recommend caution in jumping to conclusions on current polling about their popularity.
They’d both be fine as leaders in my view
A fair number of the others have been exiting Russia via other routes still open.
The children though are more worrying.
Unusually for me I’m getting over excited
I think there has always been a wide range of views and the so-called "culture wars" have been going on for a long time. In my own family my two sets of grandparents were almost caricature versions of the two sides to the postwar debate (they all grew up in the 1920s, my grandfathers both served in the war).
On my father's side, my grandfather was a communist when he was at Oxford, my grandmother came from a Welsh nonconformist background; they were active in the Labour Party and CND; they lived in the US for a bit and got involved in the Civil Rights movement. They had gay friends I think. My dad's best friend at school in the early 1950s was black. They were extremely unbigoted, early proponents of wokeness I suppose.
On my mother's side, her parents grew up poor in Devonport but were both pretty gifted - my grandmother a very talented pianist, my grandfather an engineer. Neither went to university. My grandfather lived in Bermuda for a bit as a teenager where I think he picked up some fairly prejudiced views. He was pretty openly racist as well as being extremely right wing in general. I think my grandmother's views weren't so different although she was better at hiding them (my grandfather was quite often drunk). My grandfather allegedly told his neighbour that my wife was "as black as the ace of spades" after meeting her for the first time. On the other hand they were quite nice to her once they got to know her.
They were certainly extremely prejudiced but I think that reflected the narrowness of their upbringing and a certain amount of bitterness that they had been held back by their working class origins, as they undoubtedly had been.
Long and short, my family has been arguing about these "culture war" issues for decades, there is nothing new under the sun.
(2) Pretty much all currencies have dropped against the USD at broadly the same rate, irrespective of whether they are commodity exporters, or what interest rates are. Look at the Australian Dollar vs the US Dollar.
If you put UK base rates up to 2%, you will be hitting UK consumers in the mortgage at exactly the same moment as they are seeing their petrol, gas and electricity bills rise.
Now in third place.
Metaphor for Sunak?
Some clever PBer I think worked out you have to go back to the mid 19th century to find a previous instance.
We'll see what happens, but I can't see the Fed going crazy with a lot more monetary tightening.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8DmF_koHS3s
And on a different tack, Glitzy Bag Hags. A skiffle version of Super Sharp Shooter. I saw this lot at a festival in Bristol: never have I seen such a euphoric, sweaty, packed dancefloor for a band which no-one had heard of. A better party than in this video, anyway.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ATsilisTO9k
Don’t raise rates: £ craters even more, oil price goes through the roof when priced in £ and everyone suffers. Do raise rates, push up the price of £ denominsted debt, everyone suffers.
Everything depends on the second round effects though - pick your poison & hope for the least worst outcome.
This is great fun.
Just laid her for a £10 at those odds.
I'm very very green on Mordaunt and can afford to take a slight hit in order to bump up my other wins on any of last 8.
I love an all green market!!!
(I must admit her weakness with the public surprised me, but there it is)
At the same time, it's entirely possible that Moduant and Sunak are both at the 80 vote level. In which case it is hard to see anything other than them in the final two.
That Yougov poll isn't so much x is better than Sunak its screaming anyone is better than Sunak.
Penny has too many vid clips and so on from the past on this subject iirc.
Yikes.
Tory source: “Sir Gavin Williamson ruined the lives of millions of school children and repeatedly embarrassed himself as Education Secretary. It is for Tory MPs to decide whether Rishi Sunak is exercising good judgement in being associated with this man.”
3:47 PM · Jul 13, 2022"
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1547231171842564097
He's learnt nothing from the experience either. He tried to VoNC the government yesterday, got it wrong and it took Boris to do it for him.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ReSV3CCRzg&ab_channel=PostmodernJukebox
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aLnZ1NQm2uk&ab_channel=PostmodernJukebox
If it means the likes of Klarna go bankrupt then no one will shed any tears.