Mordaunt vs Starmer would be fascinating. I’m up for it
Mordaunt is probably best placed to defend seats in the blue Shires, though not obvious Red Wall appeal.
She has that ex-forces patriotic vibe that could go down well in some Red Wall constituencies, i think. She could probably hold on to a few of them. Some are probably beyond saving already TBH.
I’m a bit puzzled by her reliance on her supposed “military background”
Reading her wiki, she seems to have joined in her mid 30’s, not achieved much of note, or seen any action, then left after five years.
Interesting discovery - that exceptionally foolish purchase of a bottle of Retsina when Lidl were doing Greek week has turned out ok - ferociously chilled, over ice it’s quite drinkable in this heat!
Kathy Gyngell on GB News saying that ConservativeWoman have got a hit piece on Penny coming tomorrow, related to the “Women” problem, and the denial of her previous position.
It's possible to not care about the issue itself, while being perturbed by the fact that she seems to have been saying different things to different people on this subject. On the other hand maybe that's par for the course for politicians in general.
Not defending her on this, but it is a complex issue with many nuances that the extremists on both sides try to ignore. It's perfectly possible for slightly different questions to elicit different answers.
For instance I'm generally pro-trans, and want to see them be able to go about their business as the rest of us do. But I don't think trans people should *automatically* be allowed to play in womens' sports. If I were to answer the questions in order in different interviews, one answer might be seen as pro-trans and the other anti-trans. But both answers are the result of a carefully-considered position.
Kathy Gyngell on GB News saying that ConservativeWoman have got a hit piece on Penny coming tomorrow, related to the “Women” problem, and the denial of her previous position.
It's possible to not care about the issue itself, while being perturbed by the fact that she seems to have been saying different things to different people on this subject. On the other hand maybe that's par for the course for politicians in general.
Not defending her on this, but it is a complex issue with many nuances that the extremists on both sides try to ignore. It's perfectly possible for slightly different questions to elicit different answers.
For instance I'm generally pro-trans, and want to see them be able to go about their business as the rest of us do. But I don't think trans people should *automatically* be allowed to play in womens' sports. If I were to answer the questions in order in different interviews, one answer might be seen as pro-trans and the other anti-trans. But both answers are the result of a carefully-considered position.
This is exactly my position. People on both sides are as bad as each other
I think a Penny vs Starmer contest would bring some normality and decency back to politics. Probably the most boring one we’ve had in years.
Low turnout IMHO
I think Starmer's boringness has been exacerbated by contrast with his, er, anything but boring opponent. Up against a more normal opponent like Mordaunt or Sunak he may seem interesting enough.
In among the excitement, I'm internally following my own internal thread about covers of tunes in different styles - another one from Boss Hoss: Say a Little Prayer: just lovely. Like letting out a breath you didn't know you'd been holding.
And on a different tack, Glitzy Bag Hags. A skiffle version of Super Sharp Shooter. I saw this lot at a festival in Bristol: never have I seen such a euphoric, sweaty, packed dancefloor for a band which no-one had heard of. A better party than in this video, anyway.
Financial press reporting there's a one in three chance the Fed could go a full one percentage point next time out after US CPI beat expectations.
Yes, another 75bps from the Fed is a dead cert at this point. The BoE went 25bps last time, and has a lot of catching-up to do.
I'm not a forex expert but I just wonder about the effect of these widening differentials. The ECB and BoJ are effectively stymied at zero...whilst the US/UK/Canada are hiking.
The logical upshot would seem to be more poundings for the Euro/Yen, but I guess the flows are more complex than that.
The Euro is definitely taking a pounding, it came within a whisker of parity to the US$ yesterday, and is currently at $1.008. Another Fed raise, and it’ll be $0.95 and heading for $0.90.
Mordaunt feels like she has the momentum now. A coronation perhaps?
I don’t think there’ll be a coronation. I’m still expecting Rishi to come top in this ballot, the key thing will be the margin. If it’s between 10-30 then he’s not managed to run away with it and is in trouble IMHO.
It would however be sensational if he is behind Penny.
Financial press reporting there's a one in three chance the Fed could go a full one percentage point next time out after US CPI beat expectations.
Yes, another 75bps from the Fed is a dead cert at this point. The BoE went 25bps last time, and has a lot of catching-up to do.
I'm not a forex expert but I just wonder about the effect of these widening differentials. The ECB and BoJ are effectively stymied at zero...whilst the US/UK/Canada are hiking.
The logical upshot would seem to be more poundings for the Euro/Yen, but I guess the flows are more complex than that.
The Euro is definitely taking a pounding, it came within a whisker of parity to the US$ yesterday, and is currently at $1.008. Another Fed raise, and it’ll be $0.95 and heading for $0.90.
I haven't been this excited since I saw my girlfriend after several months of lockdown kept us apart.
You mean you followed the rules? Crazy talk.
I'm DBSed (enhanced) regularly, I cannot be a lawbreaker.
It helped that we both lived with family members that had to shield.
It was put to me that the definition of a bubble was whoever the middle classes happened to be with at any one time
I just about managed to cope with lockdowns because I had my parents and kids in the same house, having a biggish house and garden, with superfast broadband made it bearable.
I did develop impatience with it all when I was double jabbed by February 2021 and all my friends/partners weren't double jabbed until the summer.
6% of people told Ipsos they knew "a great deal" about Tory leadership hopeful Stewart Lewis - who does not exist. Similar proportions said the same about Braverman, Badenoch and Tugendhat - who do exist (via @PA"
Mordaunt vs Starmer would be fascinating. I’m up for it
Mordaunt is probably best placed to defend seats in the blue Shires, though not obvious Red Wall appeal.
She has that ex-forces patriotic vibe that could go down well in some Red Wall constituencies, i think. She could probably hold on to a few of them. Some are probably beyond saving already TBH.
I’m a bit puzzled by her reliance on her supposed “military background”
Reading her wiki, she seems to have joined in her mid 30’s, not achieved much of note, or seen any action, then left after five years.
Dura is on record with "not much", though expressed more colourfully.
She seems to have had a challenging upbringing - father Para Reg hence away a lot, mother died early, she became "primary caregiver" (wiki).
She is in the RNR (no idea what the difference between RNR and RNVR is) and as such although she didn't do too much it seems (can't see any deployments) she put her name down and was presumably ready to deploy. And might have had to I assume at various points in time.
Inch by inch the UK seems to be moving away from the more turbulent waters it was in a few weeks ago. Boris being booted has helped but there's also some sense in recent days that the Bank has finally woken up and will push bigger rate rises to combat inflation. Loads of chatter from all over the city around it too so hopefully it's true.
There's going to be a few more tough months IMO but then we'll start to see base effects kick in because energy costs had already begun to surge in late 2021 and all we'll be left with is the effect of weaker sterling (still substantial tbf) by the start of next year.
The next PM needs to get a handle on costs and get moving with huge supply side reform. Kemi gets it, the sticking plaster rebates are addressing the symptoms of inflation rather than the cause (not enough investment in electricity generation) and we need to get moving with solving our deep economic to unlock future growth and the nation's potential rather than just giving away minor one off rebates.
The Tories would do well to get Kemi in the final two so she gets a national platform to speak about her ideas.
Raising interest rates to slow the economy, when people are already seeing their disposable income squeezed by higher commodity prices would be extremely brave.
I think we're in a slightly odd position that a big interest rate rise to catch up with the Fed will have an outsized effect on near term inflation as most of what we're seeing is commodity price inflation which is related to our weakening currency against USD. I doubt motorists will care that interest rates went up a bit when a clawing back 4-6% against USD brings pump prices down by 10-15p per litre along with a whole host of imported goods that are priced in dollars.
If it means the likes of Klarna go bankrupt then no one will shed any tears.
I don't think raising interest rates will have anything like the impact on Sterling you think it will.
Every time the Bank has refused to keep up with the Fed we saw prolonged weakening. There seems to be enough economic headroom for bigger rate rises than expected.
I'm also not convinced that rate rises hurt current mortgage holders that much, how many are on standard variable interest only style mortgages anyway?
“20% [of mortgages] are floating so they will see the interest rate increase come through immediately,” Sarah Breeden, executive director for Financial Stability Strategy and Risk at the Bank of England, told MPs at the Treasury committee on Monday.
“Of the 80% that are fixed, our data suggests that around a quarter of those come out of that in the next 12 months. Of that 100% stock of mortgages actually only 40% are going to see higher rates in the immediate period ahead,” she added.
However, she admitted that more of that “will pass through over the next year” as more fixed rate mortgages come to an end.
It still needs to happen, but it's going to hurt for a lot of ordinary people.
I'm floating, but that's because of the property value hike making remortgage fees on the remaining repayment value uncompetitive when I came to look. And now it's basically like a car loan, each interest rate hike costs me a couple of quid a month
If it bores me I'll just pay it off.
Suspect a good number of floating mortgages are of this ilk.
As I've said, the key is not the floating mortgages but the 60% of mortgages that will be coming off a fixed rate deal after the next twelve months. Unless you think inflation is going to be done and dusted in a year, and after that time we'll be back to the post-2008 pre-COVID era of cheap money, then they're going to take a big hit. With the average UK mortgage debt being c.£140,000, going from a fix of 2% to a new fix of 5% is two hundred quid a month in mortgage repayments, or £2.4k per year. In cash terms that's almost twice as big a hit to household budgets as the projected energy cap increase (£1,971 currently, £3,364 projected January 2023).
Kathy Gyngell on GB News saying that ConservativeWoman have got a hit piece on Penny coming tomorrow, related to the “Women” problem, and the denial of her previous position.
It's possible to not care about the issue itself, while being perturbed by the fact that she seems to have been saying different things to different people on this subject. On the other hand maybe that's par for the course for politicians in general.
Not defending her on this, but it is a complex issue with many nuances that the extremists on both sides try to ignore. It's perfectly possible for slightly different questions to elicit different answers.
For instance I'm generally pro-trans, and want to see them be able to go about their business as the rest of us do. But I don't think trans people should *automatically* be allowed to play in womens' sports. If I were to answer the questions in order in different interviews, one answer might be seen as pro-trans and the other anti-trans. But both answers are the result of a carefully-considered position.
This is exactly my position. People on both sides are as bad as each other
Really? Even the side that’s not issuing death threats and trying to get people sacked?
Afternoon all! What happens if one candidate has a massive vote another of the others get to 30?
Massive pressure perhaps for the rest candidates to drop out.
Depends who has the massive lead with MPs in this scenario. If it's Sunak (the likely big winner with MPs) then I can't see for example Mordaunt dropping out, not with all this polling saying she can win with the membership vote.
Mordaunt vs Starmer would be fascinating. I’m up for it
Mordaunt is probably best placed to defend seats in the blue Shires, though not obvious Red Wall appeal.
She has that ex-forces patriotic vibe that could go down well in some Red Wall constituencies, i think. She could probably hold on to a few of them. Some are probably beyond saving already TBH.
I’m a bit puzzled by her reliance on her supposed “military background”
Reading her wiki, she seems to have joined in her mid 30’s, not achieved much of note, or seen any action, then left after five years.
Dura is on record with "not much", though expressed more colourfully.
She seems to have had a challenging upbringing - father Para Reg hence away a lot, mother died early, she became "primary caregiver" (wiki).
She is in the RNR (no idea what the difference between RNR and RNVR is) and as such although she didn't do too much it seems (can't see any deployments) she put her name down and was presumably ready to deploy. And might have had to I assume at various points in time.
So good for her is my view.
I am unsurprised that you're not quite as cynical as our aviator.
Inch by inch the UK seems to be moving away from the more turbulent waters it was in a few weeks ago. Boris being booted has helped but there's also some sense in recent days that the Bank has finally woken up and will push bigger rate rises to combat inflation. Loads of chatter from all over the city around it too so hopefully it's true.
There's going to be a few more tough months IMO but then we'll start to see base effects kick in because energy costs had already begun to surge in late 2021 and all we'll be left with is the effect of weaker sterling (still substantial tbf) by the start of next year.
The next PM needs to get a handle on costs and get moving with huge supply side reform. Kemi gets it, the sticking plaster rebates are addressing the symptoms of inflation rather than the cause (not enough investment in electricity generation) and we need to get moving with solving our deep economic to unlock future growth and the nation's potential rather than just giving away minor one off rebates.
The Tories would do well to get Kemi in the final two so she gets a national platform to speak about her ideas.
Raising interest rates to slow the economy, when people are already seeing their disposable income squeezed by higher commodity prices would be extremely brave.
I think we're in a slightly odd position that a big interest rate rise to catch up with the Fed will have an outsized effect on near term inflation as most of what we're seeing is commodity price inflation which is related to our weakening currency against USD. I doubt motorists will care that interest rates went up a bit when a clawing back 4-6% against USD brings pump prices down by 10-15p per litre along with a whole host of imported goods that are priced in dollars.
If it means the likes of Klarna go bankrupt then no one will shed any tears.
I don't think raising interest rates will have anything like the impact on Sterling you think it will.
Every time the Bank has refused to keep up with the Fed we saw prolonged weakening. There seems to be enough economic headroom for bigger rate rises than expected.
I'm also not convinced that rate rises hurt current mortgage holders that much, how many are on standard variable interest only style mortgages anyway?
“20% [of mortgages] are floating so they will see the interest rate increase come through immediately,” Sarah Breeden, executive director for Financial Stability Strategy and Risk at the Bank of England, told MPs at the Treasury committee on Monday.
“Of the 80% that are fixed, our data suggests that around a quarter of those come out of that in the next 12 months. Of that 100% stock of mortgages actually only 40% are going to see higher rates in the immediate period ahead,” she added.
However, she admitted that more of that “will pass through over the next year” as more fixed rate mortgages come to an end.
It still needs to happen, but it's going to hurt for a lot of ordinary people.
I'm floating, but that's because of the property value hike making remortgage fees on the remaining repayment value uncompetitive when I came to look. And now it's basically like a car loan, each interest rate hike costs me a couple of quid a month
If it bores me I'll just pay it off.
Suspect a good number of floating mortgages are of this ilk.
As I've said, the key is not the floating mortgages but the 60% of mortgages that will be coming off a fixed rate deal after the next twelve months. Unless you think inflation is going to be done and dusted in a year, and after that time we'll be back to the post-2008 pre-COVID era of cheap money, then they're going to take a big hit. With the average UK mortgage debt being c.£140,000, going from a fix of 2% to a new fix of 5% is two hundred quid a month in mortgage repayments, or £2.4k per year. In cash terms that's almost twice as big a hit to household budgets as the projected energy cap increase (£1,971 currently, £3,364 projected January 2023).
It’s ok though, they and their highly responsible lenders will have stress tested it.
The “annual 10 day shutdown” was always a facade. That pipeline is not being re-opened. Buy diesel generators, while you stil can.
Unfortunately the diesel comes from Russia.
I hope historians will one day tell us if anyone in the West, especially in Germany, sat down and wargamed what would happen if the Russians go mad and stop all the oil and gas flows.
Financial press reporting there's a one in three chance the Fed could go a full one percentage point next time out after US CPI beat expectations.
Yes, another 75bps from the Fed is a dead cert at this point. The BoE went 25bps last time, and has a lot of catching-up to do.
I'm not a forex expert but I just wonder about the effect of these widening differentials. The ECB and BoJ are effectively stymied at zero...whilst the US/UK/Canada are hiking.
The logical upshot would seem to be more poundings for the Euro/Yen, but I guess the flows are more complex than that.
The Euro is definitely taking a pounding, it came within a whisker of parity to the US$ yesterday, and is currently at $1.008. Another Fed raise, and it’ll be $0.95 and heading for $0.90.
Mordaunt vs Starmer would be fascinating. I’m up for it
Mordaunt is probably best placed to defend seats in the blue Shires, though not obvious Red Wall appeal.
She has that ex-forces patriotic vibe that could go down well in some Red Wall constituencies, i think. She could probably hold on to a few of them. Some are probably beyond saving already TBH.
I’m a bit puzzled by her reliance on her supposed “military background”
Reading her wiki, she seems to have joined in her mid 30’s, not achieved much of note, or seen any action, then left after five years.
Dura is on record with "not much", though expressed more colourfully.
She seems to have had a challenging upbringing - father Para Reg hence away a lot, mother died early, she became "primary caregiver" (wiki).
She is in the RNR (no idea what the difference between RNR and RNVR is) and as such although she didn't do too much it seems (can't see any deployments) she put her name down and was presumably ready to deploy. And might have had to I assume at various points in time.
So good for her is my view.
RNR is or at least was a period of reserve after you've done a contract of full-time matelot in the Andrew. RNVR is when you've never been a full-timer.
Financial press reporting there's a one in three chance the Fed could go a full one percentage point next time out after US CPI beat expectations.
Yes, another 75bps from the Fed is a dead cert at this point. The BoE went 25bps last time, and has a lot of catching-up to do.
I'm not a forex expert but I just wonder about the effect of these widening differentials. The ECB and BoJ are effectively stymied at zero...whilst the US/UK/Canada are hiking.
The logical upshot would seem to be more poundings for the Euro/Yen, but I guess the flows are more complex than that.
The Euro is definitely taking a pounding, it came within a whisker of parity to the US$ yesterday, and is currently at $1.008. Another Fed raise, and it’ll be $0.95 and heading for $0.90.
Mordaunt vs Starmer would be fascinating. I’m up for it
Mordaunt is probably best placed to defend seats in the blue Shires, though not obvious Red Wall appeal.
She has that ex-forces patriotic vibe that could go down well in some Red Wall constituencies, i think. She could probably hold on to a few of them. Some are probably beyond saving already TBH.
I’m a bit puzzled by her reliance on her supposed “military background”
Reading her wiki, she seems to have joined in her mid 30’s, not achieved much of note, or seen any action, then left after five years.
Dura is on record with "not much", though expressed more colourfully.
She seems to have had a challenging upbringing - father Para Reg hence away a lot, mother died early, she became "primary caregiver" (wiki).
She is in the RNR (no idea what the difference between RNR and RNVR is) and as such although she didn't do too much it seems (can't see any deployments) she put her name down and was presumably ready to deploy. And might have had to I assume at various points in time.
So good for her is my view.
I am unsurprised that you're not quite as cynical as our aviator.
I find the forces fetishism a bit naff (we’re not American) so the fact she was a carer from a young age makes me think more highly of her than being RNR. Then again one of my best friends is RNR and I’m amazed he can tie his shoes in the morning so my views may not be representative.
Mordaunt vs Starmer would be fascinating. I’m up for it
Mordaunt is probably best placed to defend seats in the blue Shires, though not obvious Red Wall appeal.
She has that ex-forces patriotic vibe that could go down well in some Red Wall constituencies, i think. She could probably hold on to a few of them. Some are probably beyond saving already TBH.
I’m a bit puzzled by her reliance on her supposed “military background”
Reading her wiki, she seems to have joined in her mid 30’s, not achieved much of note, or seen any action, then left after five years.
Dura is on record with "not much", though expressed more colourfully.
She seems to have had a challenging upbringing - father Para Reg hence away a lot, mother died early, she became "primary caregiver" (wiki).
She is in the RNR (no idea what the difference between RNR and RNVR is) and as such although she didn't do too much it seems (can't see any deployments) she put her name down and was presumably ready to deploy. And might have had to I assume at various points in time.
So good for her is my view.
RNR is or at least was a period of reserve after you've done a contract of full-time matelot in the Andrew. RNVR is when you've never been a full-timer.
tyvm
And that could be one of the most magnificent typos in PB history.
6% of people told Ipsos they knew "a great deal" about Tory leadership hopeful Stewart Lewis - who does not exist. Similar proportions said the same about Braverman, Badenoch and Tugendhat - who do exist (via @PA"
Mordaunt vs Starmer would be fascinating. I’m up for it
Mordaunt is probably best placed to defend seats in the blue Shires, though not obvious Red Wall appeal.
She has that ex-forces patriotic vibe that could go down well in some Red Wall constituencies, i think. She could probably hold on to a few of them. Some are probably beyond saving already TBH.
I’m a bit puzzled by her reliance on her supposed “military background”
Reading her wiki, she seems to have joined in her mid 30’s, not achieved much of note, or seen any action, then left after five years.
Dura is on record with "not much", though expressed more colourfully.
Dura has never, ever said anything positive about anyone. He denigrates and takes the p*ss out of everyone. Including himself, so that is fine. But it does mean that his opinions about people can be safely ignored.
As for Mordaunt; I have an automatic positive feeling for anyone who chooses to serve the country in the military, in whatever position. It is a choice I never made (never could make, really), and I am all too aware that it is a decision that can lead to doing some nasty things and being in some sh*t places.
Mordaunt vs Starmer would be fascinating. I’m up for it
Mordaunt is probably best placed to defend seats in the blue Shires, though not obvious Red Wall appeal.
She has that ex-forces patriotic vibe that could go down well in some Red Wall constituencies, i think. She could probably hold on to a few of them. Some are probably beyond saving already TBH.
I’m a bit puzzled by her reliance on her supposed “military background”
Reading her wiki, she seems to have joined in her mid 30’s, not achieved much of note, or seen any action, then left after five years.
Dura is on record with "not much", though expressed more colourfully.
She seems to have had a challenging upbringing - father Para Reg hence away a lot, mother died early, she became "primary caregiver" (wiki).
She is in the RNR (no idea what the difference between RNR and RNVR is) and as such although she didn't do too much it seems (can't see any deployments) she put her name down and was presumably ready to deploy. And might have had to I assume at various points in time.
So good for her is my view.
RNR is or at least was a period of reserve after you've done a contract of full-time matelot in the Andrew. RNVR is when you've never been a full-timer.
tyvm
And that could be one of the most magnificent typos in PB history.
What typo? No misspellings there at all. Idiom may be a problem - Andrew = RN.
Comments
It helped that we both lived with family members that had to shield.
But, hey, you know I was paying attention!
This compares to 6% who say they know a great deal about a Conservative MP called Stewart Lewis.
Stewart Lewis does not exist.
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1547242472664977408
For instance I'm generally pro-trans, and want to see them be able to go about their business as the rest of us do. But I don't think trans people should *automatically* be allowed to play in womens' sports. If I were to answer the questions in order in different interviews, one answer might be seen as pro-trans and the other anti-trans. But both answers are the result of a carefully-considered position.
@PrivateEyeNews
https://twitter.com/PrivateEyeNews/status/1547243089374449664
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VqLU4wPzDVg
It would however be sensational if he is behind Penny.
I have been laying her a lot.
I did develop impatience with it all when I was double jabbed by February 2021 and all my friends/partners weren't double jabbed until the summer.
@cjmckeon
6% of people told Ipsos they knew "a great deal" about Tory leadership hopeful Stewart Lewis - who does not exist. Similar proportions said the same about Braverman, Badenoch and Tugendhat - who do exist (via @PA"
https://twitter.com/cjmckeon/status/1547233958064259076
She is in the RNR (no idea what the difference between RNR and RNVR is) and as such although she didn't do too much it seems (can't see any deployments) she put her name down and was presumably ready to deploy. And might have had to I assume at various points in time.
So good for her is my view.
However Unibet has Mordaunt at 2/5 which is notable
Even the side that’s not issuing death threats and trying to get people sacked?
Depends who has the massive lead with MPs in this scenario. If it's Sunak (the likely big winner with MPs) then I can't see for example Mordaunt dropping out, not with all this polling saying she can win with the membership vote.
Brave I hear you say, very brave.
And that could be one of the most magnificent typos in PB history.
Mourdaunt
Badenoch
Sunak
Truss
Tugendhat
Zahawi
Braverman
Hunt
Slightly worried that Penny Mordaunt is so close to Andrea Leadsom.
As for Mordaunt; I have an automatic positive feeling for anyone who chooses to serve the country in the military, in whatever position. It is a choice I never made (never could make, really), and I am all too aware that it is a decision that can lead to doing some nasty things and being in some sh*t places.
Like Portsmouth.
(I got married in Portsmouth...)
Mordaunt 67
Truss 50
Badenoch 40
Tugendhat 37
Braverman 32
Zahawi 25
Hunt 18
357 votes cast.
Suella Braverman - 32
Jeremy Hunt - 18
Penny Mordaunt - 67
Rishi Sunak - 88
Liz Truss - 50
Tom Tugendhat - 37
Nadhim Zahawi - 25