Tory source: “Sir Gavin Williamson ruined the lives of millions of school children and repeatedly embarrassed himself as Education Secretary. It is for Tory MPs to decide whether Rishi Sunak is exercising good judgement in being associated with this man.”
I'm very very green on Mordaunt and can afford to take a slight hit in order to bump up my other wins on any of last 8.
I love an all green market!!!
I have a pretty green book. Only deeply red on Sunak, but I can't see him getting it. Not sure why being such a balanced books CoE has been so toxic for him.
People can’t name Penny Mordaunt when shown a photo. Keir Starmer of the Tories
I thought you liked Starmer?
Yes that was a compliment. It’s how Starmer won the leadership.
They’d both be fine as leaders in my view
I agree. Slighly baffled by the comment though, but not the first baffling thing you've said and no doubt not the last. I myself.. well ok it's much the same.
Why baffled? I was saying they’re both unknown and both not proven in any big roles in Government. I’m up for it, they both seem sensible and fairly boring.
Inch by inch the UK seems to be moving away from the more turbulent waters it was in a few weeks ago. Boris being booted has helped but there's also some sense in recent days that the Bank has finally woken up and will push bigger rate rises to combat inflation. Loads of chatter from all over the city around it too so hopefully it's true.
There's going to be a few more tough months IMO but then we'll start to see base effects kick in because energy costs had already begun to surge in late 2021 and all we'll be left with is the effect of weaker sterling (still substantial tbf) by the start of next year.
The next PM needs to get a handle on costs and get moving with huge supply side reform. Kemi gets it, the sticking plaster rebates are addressing the symptoms of inflation rather than the cause (not enough investment in electricity generation) and we need to get moving with solving our deep economic to unlock future growth and the nation's potential rather than just giving away minor one off rebates.
The Tories would do well to get Kemi in the final two so she gets a national platform to speak about her ideas.
Raising interest rates to slow the economy, when people are already seeing their disposable income squeezed by higher commodity prices would be extremely brave.
I think we're in a slightly odd position that a big interest rate rise to catch up with the Fed will have an outsized effect on near term inflation as most of what we're seeing is commodity price inflation which is related to our weakening currency against USD. I doubt motorists will care that interest rates went up a bit when a clawing back 4-6% against USD brings pump prices down by 10-15p per litre along with a whole host of imported goods that are priced in dollars.
If it means the likes of Klarna go bankrupt then no one will shed any tears.
Equally our Mortgage industry means that most borrowers get a shock once every 2 to 3 years as they shop round for their next fixed term mortgage.... So I don't think it would have the immediate impact RCS expects.
Inch by inch the UK seems to be moving away from the more turbulent waters it was in a few weeks ago. Boris being booted has helped but there's also some sense in recent days that the Bank has finally woken up and will push bigger rate rises to combat inflation. Loads of chatter from all over the city around it too so hopefully it's true.
There's going to be a few more tough months IMO but then we'll start to see base effects kick in because energy costs had already begun to surge in late 2021 and all we'll be left with is the effect of weaker sterling (still substantial tbf) by the start of next year.
The next PM needs to get a handle on costs and get moving with huge supply side reform. Kemi gets it, the sticking plaster rebates are addressing the symptoms of inflation rather than the cause (not enough investment in electricity generation) and we need to get moving with solving our deep economic to unlock future growth and the nation's potential rather than just giving away minor one off rebates.
The Tories would do well to get Kemi in the final two so she gets a national platform to speak about her ideas.
Raising interest rates to slow the economy, when people are already seeing their disposable income squeezed by higher commodity prices would be extremely brave.
I think we're in a slightly odd position that a big interest rate rise to catch up with the Fed will have an outsized effect on near term inflation as most of what we're seeing is commodity price inflation which is related to our weakening currency against USD. I doubt motorists will care that interest rates went up a bit when a clawing back 4-6% against USD brings pump prices down by 10-15p per litre along with a whole host of imported goods that are priced in dollars.
If it means the likes of Klarna go bankrupt then no one will shed any tears.
I don't think raising interest rates will have anything like the impact on Sterling you think it will.
Mordaunt vs Starmer would be fascinating. I’m up for it
Mordaunt is probably best placed to defend seats in the blue Shires, though not obvious Red Wall appeal.
She has that ex-forces patriotic vibe that could go down well in some Red Wall constituencies, i think. She could probably hold on to a few of them. Some are probably beyond saving already TBH.
Inch by inch the UK seems to be moving away from the more turbulent waters it was in a few weeks ago. Boris being booted has helped but there's also some sense in recent days that the Bank has finally woken up and will push bigger rate rises to combat inflation. Loads of chatter from all over the city around it too so hopefully it's true.
There's going to be a few more tough months IMO but then we'll start to see base effects kick in because energy costs had already begun to surge in late 2021 and all we'll be left with is the effect of weaker sterling (still substantial tbf) by the start of next year.
The next PM needs to get a handle on costs and get moving with huge supply side reform. Kemi gets it, the sticking plaster rebates are addressing the symptoms of inflation rather than the cause (not enough investment in electricity generation) and we need to get moving with solving our deep economic to unlock future growth and the nation's potential rather than just giving away minor one off rebates.
The Tories would do well to get Kemi in the final two so she gets a national platform to speak about her ideas.
Raising interest rates to slow the economy, when people are already seeing their disposable income squeezed by higher commodity prices would be extremely brave.
I think we're in a slightly odd position that a big interest rate rise to catch up with the Fed will have an outsized effect on near term inflation as most of what we're seeing is commodity price inflation which is related to our weakening currency against USD. I doubt motorists will care that interest rates went up a bit when a clawing back 4-6% against USD brings pump prices down by 10-15p per litre along with a whole host of imported goods that are priced in dollars.
If it means the likes of Klarna go bankrupt then no one will shed any tears.
It's not that Klarna goes bankrupt, it's that consumers go bankrupt.
Even raising interest rates by 2% would put many people in a state where they cannot pay their mortgages when they re-mortgage. The SVR rate has just passed 5% in the country.
In any event, the issues with short-term inflation are actually more supply-side issues, which raising interest rates do little to solve unless your intention is to so kill off demand that no one wants the products in the first place. If you want to curb inflation where it is demand-side led e.g. rising housing prices, you would be better off with higher / one off taxes
Mordaunt vs Starmer would be fascinating. I’m up for it
Mordaunt is probably best placed to defend seats in the blue Shires, though not obvious Red Wall appeal.
A woman who says "cock" five times in the chamber for a laugh? How long before we see guys in hard hates before a hand-made cardboard "WE 😍 PENNY" sign?
It would be a heck of a gamble to replace such a well-known PM with someone few have heard of. Let alone recognise. May, Boris, Brown were all big players.
In among the excitement, I'm internally following my own internal thread about covers of tunes in different styles - another one from Boss Hoss: Say a Little Prayer: just lovely. Like letting out a breath you didn't know you'd been holding.
And on a different tack, Glitzy Bag Hags. A skiffle version of Super Sharp Shooter. I saw this lot at a festival in Bristol: never have I seen such a euphoric, sweaty, packed dancefloor for a band which no-one had heard of. A better party than in this video, anyway.
Tory source: “Sir Gavin Williamson ruined the lives of millions of school children and repeatedly embarrassed himself as Education Secretary. It is for Tory MPs to decide whether Rishi Sunak is exercising good judgement in being associated with this man.”
Russian forces had already deported two million people from Ukraine to the territory of the Russian Federation, said President Volodymyr Zelensky in his address to the participants of the Asian Leadership Conference in Seoul on Wednesday https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1547226499903791105
They risk being "disappeared".
Russia will murder most of the men and say "they were killed by Ukraine shelling their own cities...."
No, I think that's a wild exaggeration. There's little doubt that torture and killings do occur in the occupied territories, and in particular in the filtration camps, but not on that scale.
The BBC had a reasonably good program this week looking at what happened to a few individuals from Mariupol. As they rely on Russian access, no doubt there was a fair amount of glossing over what went on, but the technique of only allowing escape from besieged cities into Russian held territory, and collection of refugees in 'filtration camps' was fairly well described. https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m00193v7
Life in the camps is made very unpleasant (extremely so for some), and it's made clear that a quick way out is to accept being deported into Russia 'willingly'. Often shipped thousands of miles from home.
Once in Russia, without resources, they are basically stuck. Some will find their way home eventually, but I'll bet many won't.
Inch by inch the UK seems to be moving away from the more turbulent waters it was in a few weeks ago. Boris being booted has helped but there's also some sense in recent days that the Bank has finally woken up and will push bigger rate rises to combat inflation. Loads of chatter from all over the city around it too so hopefully it's true.
There's going to be a few more tough months IMO but then we'll start to see base effects kick in because energy costs had already begun to surge in late 2021 and all we'll be left with is the effect of weaker sterling (still substantial tbf) by the start of next year.
The next PM needs to get a handle on costs and get moving with huge supply side reform. Kemi gets it, the sticking plaster rebates are addressing the symptoms of inflation rather than the cause (not enough investment in electricity generation) and we need to get moving with solving our deep economic to unlock future growth and the nation's potential rather than just giving away minor one off rebates.
The Tories would do well to get Kemi in the final two so she gets a national platform to speak about her ideas.
Raising interest rates to slow the economy, when people are already seeing their disposable income squeezed by higher commodity prices would be extremely brave.
I think we're in a slightly odd position that a big interest rate rise to catch up with the Fed will have an outsized effect on near term inflation as most of what we're seeing is commodity price inflation which is related to our weakening currency against USD. I doubt motorists will care that interest rates went up a bit when a clawing back 4-6% against USD brings pump prices down by 10-15p per litre along with a whole host of imported goods that are priced in dollars.
If it means the likes of Klarna go bankrupt then no one will shed any tears.
I don't think raising interest rates will have anything like the impact on Sterling you think it will.
Every time the Bank has refused to keep up with the Fed we saw prolonged weakening. There seems to be enough economic headroom for bigger rate rises than expected.
I'm also not convinced that rate rises hurt current mortgage holders that much, how many are on standard variable interest only style mortgages anyway? Landlords are the only class that gets hammered and, really, boo fucking hoo if they lose money on their investment.
As @MaxPB says on the other thread, a Mordaunt v Kemi contest would be a great opportunity to air ideas for the future.
Rishi has no ideas. Truss just has no idea full stop.
Truss is a terrible public speaker.
Yes, being a decent speaker is still really important for the role. It shouldn't be the be all and end all, but it almost is. Truss is fairly bright. Almost all front bench politicians are. Anyone dismissing her as an idiot is engaging in a bit of hyperbole. But she doesn't come across as such because she's not a great speaker. But your job as PM is not just to think, it is to persuade and cajole and build consensus. And it's hard to do that if you're not a particularly good speaker. On the other hand, there are plenty of politicians who are pretty good at speaking, and at persuading, but whose ability with a phrase masks other deficiencies.
Covid info.... looks like we are at the peak of the current wave right now, hospitalisation growth and case growth are approaching zero (slightly negative for cases today). IF this continues (obvious caveats apply) should both peak and decline lower than original omicron and BA2 wave. And without compulsory mitigations being employed.
Yes - and well spotted – although I think most of the country is getting on with its life and has largely moved on from covid. I realise that PB is rather different in that regard, panicking whenever there is a new 'wave', but most normal people seem to have accepted that waves will come and go forever, like the tides of the sea.
In among the excitement, I'm internally following my own internal thread about covers of tunes in different styles - another one from Boss Hoss: Say a Little Prayer: just lovely. Like letting out a breath you didn't know you'd been holding.
And on a different tack, Glitzy Bag Hags. A skiffle version of Super Sharp Shooter. I saw this lot at a festival in Bristol: never have I seen such a euphoric, sweaty, packed dancefloor for a band which no-one had heard of. A better party than in this video, anyway.
Pippa Crerar @PippaCrerar · 30m Labour putting out a very punch attack ad about Tory candidates’ tax status - basically ‘they put up your taxes while avoiding their own’. 🥊
Kathy Gyngell on GB News saying that ConservativeWoman have got a hit piece on Penny coming tomorrow, related to the “Women” problem, and the denial of her previous position.
Inch by inch the UK seems to be moving away from the more turbulent waters it was in a few weeks ago. Boris being booted has helped but there's also some sense in recent days that the Bank has finally woken up and will push bigger rate rises to combat inflation. Loads of chatter from all over the city around it too so hopefully it's true.
There's going to be a few more tough months IMO but then we'll start to see base effects kick in because energy costs had already begun to surge in late 2021 and all we'll be left with is the effect of weaker sterling (still substantial tbf) by the start of next year.
The next PM needs to get a handle on costs and get moving with huge supply side reform. Kemi gets it, the sticking plaster rebates are addressing the symptoms of inflation rather than the cause (not enough investment in electricity generation) and we need to get moving with solving our deep economic to unlock future growth and the nation's potential rather than just giving away minor one off rebates.
The Tories would do well to get Kemi in the final two so she gets a national platform to speak about her ideas.
Raising interest rates to slow the economy, when people are already seeing their disposable income squeezed by higher commodity prices would be extremely brave.
I think we're in a slightly odd position that a big interest rate rise to catch up with the Fed will have an outsized effect on near term inflation as most of what we're seeing is commodity price inflation which is related to our weakening currency against USD. I doubt motorists will care that interest rates went up a bit when a clawing back 4-6% against USD brings pump prices down by 10-15p per litre along with a whole host of imported goods that are priced in dollars.
If it means the likes of Klarna go bankrupt then no one will shed any tears.
I don't think raising interest rates will have anything like the impact on Sterling you think it will.
Every time the Bank has refused to keep up with the Fed we saw prolonged weakening. There seems to be enough economic headroom for bigger rate rises than expected.
I'm also not convinced that rate rises hurt current mortgage holders that much, how many are on standard variable interest only style mortgages anyway? Landlords are the only class that gets hammered and, really, boo fucking hoo if they lose money on their investment.
25% max and I suspect they will be the smaller amounts where the upfront cost of the new application outweighs the savings.
Pippa Crerar @PippaCrerar · 30m Labour putting out a very punch attack ad about Tory candidates’ tax status - basically ‘they put up your taxes while avoiding their own’. 🥊
Mordaunt vs Starmer would be fascinating. I’m up for it
Mordaunt is probably best placed to defend seats in the blue Shires, though not obvious Red Wall appeal.
A woman who says "cock" five times in the chamber for a laugh? How long before we see guys in hard hates before a hand-made cardboard "WE 😍 PENNY" sign?
White van man will love her.
Some will.
Levelling up will be even more dead than it is already.
New poll from @SavantaComRes finds just 11% of the public and 16% of Conservative voters can correctly name Penny Mordaunt when shown a photo of her.
Sunak 66% Truss 33% Mordaunt 11%
So I recommend caution in jumping to conclusions on current polling about their popularity.
Yes, this latest round of Pennymania rather seems to ignore the only polling on the real test – how she does against Starmer. She was actually the worst of the candidates surveyed, a 15-point deficit (Badenoch for some reason didn't feature).
(I must admit her weakness with the public surprised me, but there it is)
She’s only “weak” because of name recognition. I suspect once she becomes more prominent (and she will) the gap will narrow. Will it fully overturn the deficit? Jury’s out on that one.
Yes, maybe so. I recognised the name effect in my earlier post.
It would be a heck of a gamble to replace such a well-known PM with someone few have heard of. Let alone recognise. May, Boris, Brown were all big players.
All awful though. Brown the most tinpot unworthy of a piss. You missed out Cameron though.
Inch by inch the UK seems to be moving away from the more turbulent waters it was in a few weeks ago. Boris being booted has helped but there's also some sense in recent days that the Bank has finally woken up and will push bigger rate rises to combat inflation. Loads of chatter from all over the city around it too so hopefully it's true.
There's going to be a few more tough months IMO but then we'll start to see base effects kick in because energy costs had already begun to surge in late 2021 and all we'll be left with is the effect of weaker sterling (still substantial tbf) by the start of next year.
The next PM needs to get a handle on costs and get moving with huge supply side reform. Kemi gets it, the sticking plaster rebates are addressing the symptoms of inflation rather than the cause (not enough investment in electricity generation) and we need to get moving with solving our deep economic to unlock future growth and the nation's potential rather than just giving away minor one off rebates.
The Tories would do well to get Kemi in the final two so she gets a national platform to speak about her ideas.
Raising interest rates to slow the economy, when people are already seeing their disposable income squeezed by higher commodity prices would be extremely brave.
I think we're in a slightly odd position that a big interest rate rise to catch up with the Fed will have an outsized effect on near term inflation as most of what we're seeing is commodity price inflation which is related to our weakening currency against USD. I doubt motorists will care that interest rates went up a bit when a clawing back 4-6% against USD brings pump prices down by 10-15p per litre along with a whole host of imported goods that are priced in dollars.
If it means the likes of Klarna go bankrupt then no one will shed any tears.
I don't think raising interest rates will have anything like the impact on Sterling you think it will.
Every time the Bank has refused to keep up with the Fed we saw prolonged weakening. There seems to be enough economic headroom for bigger rate rises than expected.
I'm also not convinced that rate rises hurt current mortgage holders that much, how many are on standard variable interest only style mortgages anyway?
“20% [of mortgages] are floating so they will see the interest rate increase come through immediately,” Sarah Breeden, executive director for Financial Stability Strategy and Risk at the Bank of England, told MPs at the Treasury committee on Monday.
“Of the 80% that are fixed, our data suggests that around a quarter of those come out of that in the next 12 months. Of that 100% stock of mortgages actually only 40% are going to see higher rates in the immediate period ahead,” she added.
However, she admitted that more of that “will pass through over the next year” as more fixed rate mortgages come to an end.
It still needs to happen, but it's going to hurt for a lot of ordinary people.
It would be a heck of a gamble to replace such a well-known PM with someone few have heard of. Let alone recognise. May, Boris, Brown were all big players.
You could sum up this leadership contest with one phrase: a gamble.
There is no clear consensus as to the succession, and no senior figure who isn’t in some way tainted by the BoJo years.
The whole point of getting BoJo out and someone new in is the hope that you’ll be able to present a more competent and less scandalous alternative to the country in two years.
Putting Rishi or Liz in charge is as much of a gamble as elevating someone like Penny.
In among the excitement, I'm internally following my own internal thread about covers of tunes in different styles - another one from Boss Hoss: Say a Little Prayer: just lovely. Like letting out a breath you didn't know you'd been holding.
And on a different tack, Glitzy Bag Hags. A skiffle version of Super Sharp Shooter. I saw this lot at a festival in Bristol: never have I seen such a euphoric, sweaty, packed dancefloor for a band which no-one had heard of. A better party than in this video, anyway.
Covid info.... looks like we are at the peak of the current wave right now, hospitalisation growth and case growth are approaching zero (slightly negative for cases today). IF this continues (obvious caveats apply) should both peak and decline lower than original omicron and BA2 wave. And without compulsory mitigations being employed.
Yes - and well spotted – although I think most of the country is getting on with its life and has largely moved on from covid. I realise that PB is rather different in that regard, panicking whenever there is a new 'wave', but most normal people seem to have accepted that waves will come and go forever, like the tides of the sea.
Hmm. Hearing stories of holidaymakers succumbing, and more masked shoppers, although still a minority, at Sainsbury's today.
New poll from @SavantaComRes finds just 11% of the public and 16% of Conservative voters can correctly name Penny Mordaunt when shown a photo of her.
Sunak 66% Truss 33% Mordaunt 11%
So I recommend caution in jumping to conclusions on current polling about their popularity.
Yes, this latest round of Pennymania rather seems to ignore the only polling on the real test – how she does against Starmer. She was actually the worst of the candidates surveyed, a 15-point deficit (Badenoch for some reason didn't feature).
(I must admit her weakness with the public surprised me, but there it is)
She’s only “weak” because of name recognition. I suspect once she becomes more prominent (and she will) the gap will narrow. Will it fully overturn the deficit? Jury’s out on that one.
There’s reasons why the well known ones are weak, and the not so well known ones are weak.
The poll showing Penny beating all rivals in members vote is not THE poll of members, but just one of several polls of members this week have produced all over the shop answers, to be honest. Are we actually picking up on movement as the week progresses? I think not.
I can think of reasons why member polls wildly vary in answers, firstly how are the questions asked? And are their regional variations of who membership prefer, so a larger return from one region screws it?
My bias is I am still cheering for woke Penny to get it, my second pref would be Sunak, and sooner Truss is out I can sleep more soundly at night. However, as the week has gone on I am thinking Mourdant may contain a lot of inherent vice making her weak against Labour. Politics at the moment very susceptible to someone telling porkies and doubling down on it. Also her solutions to the big problems of the day are still sketchy.
In among the excitement, I'm internally following my own internal thread about covers of tunes in different styles - another one from Boss Hoss: Say a Little Prayer: just lovely. Like letting out a breath you didn't know you'd been holding.
And on a different tack, Glitzy Bag Hags. A skiffle version of Super Sharp Shooter. I saw this lot at a festival in Bristol: never have I seen such a euphoric, sweaty, packed dancefloor for a band which no-one had heard of. A better party than in this video, anyway.
Kathy Gyngell on GB News saying that ConservativeWoman have got a hit piece on Penny coming tomorrow, related to the “Women” problem, and the denial of her previous position.
I don't think it is the votewinner that they think, certainly not in the country at large, and probably not even in the Conservative party. Mordaunt expresses the mainstream view very well.
Inch by inch the UK seems to be moving away from the more turbulent waters it was in a few weeks ago. Boris being booted has helped but there's also some sense in recent days that the Bank has finally woken up and will push bigger rate rises to combat inflation. Loads of chatter from all over the city around it too so hopefully it's true.
There's going to be a few more tough months IMO but then we'll start to see base effects kick in because energy costs had already begun to surge in late 2021 and all we'll be left with is the effect of weaker sterling (still substantial tbf) by the start of next year.
The next PM needs to get a handle on costs and get moving with huge supply side reform. Kemi gets it, the sticking plaster rebates are addressing the symptoms of inflation rather than the cause (not enough investment in electricity generation) and we need to get moving with solving our deep economic to unlock future growth and the nation's potential rather than just giving away minor one off rebates.
The Tories would do well to get Kemi in the final two so she gets a national platform to speak about her ideas.
Raising interest rates to slow the economy, when people are already seeing their disposable income squeezed by higher commodity prices would be extremely brave.
I think we're in a slightly odd position that a big interest rate rise to catch up with the Fed will have an outsized effect on near term inflation as most of what we're seeing is commodity price inflation which is related to our weakening currency against USD. I doubt motorists will care that interest rates went up a bit when a clawing back 4-6% against USD brings pump prices down by 10-15p per litre along with a whole host of imported goods that are priced in dollars.
If it means the likes of Klarna go bankrupt then no one will shed any tears.
IF we look at the last inflationary spike in the late 70s early 80s Volcker's Fed hiked interest rates up to 20% to kill off price hikes.
I'm not saying we are in a similar situation now, but surely its worth thinking about. People are calling peaks in price increase rates, but those peaks simply are not coming. When you look at history, traders are being extraordinarily complacent on rates.
Covid info.... looks like we are at the peak of the current wave right now, hospitalisation growth and case growth are approaching zero (slightly negative for cases today). IF this continues (obvious caveats apply) should both peak and decline lower than original omicron and BA2 wave. And without compulsory mitigations being employed.
Yes - and well spotted – although I think most of the country is getting on with its life and has largely moved on from covid. I realise that PB is rather different in that regard, panicking whenever there is a new 'wave', but most normal people seem to have accepted that waves will come and go forever, like the tides of the sea.
Yep not the slightest scintilla of concern (absent being able to get into peoples' minds) about it out and about. Plenty of midriffs, carefree tourists, everything ram-packed.
The odd person in a mask, seems very out of place but of course is their choice so good luck to them.
Even in the face of admitted "surge" in cases (was at a meeting this morning and they said 20 people had been off the previous week with it).
New poll from @SavantaComRes finds just 11% of the public and 16% of Conservative voters can correctly name Penny Mordaunt when shown a photo of her.
Sunak 66% Truss 33% Mordaunt 11%
So I recommend caution in jumping to conclusions on current polling about their popularity.
Yes, this latest round of Pennymania rather seems to ignore the only polling on the real test – how she does against Starmer. She was actually the worst of the candidates surveyed, a 15-point deficit (Badenoch for some reason didn't feature).
(I must admit her weakness with the public surprised me, but there it is)
That probably just lack of recognition. I don't think such polling is even close to realistic for anyone but Truss or Sunak.
Covid info.... looks like we are at the peak of the current wave right now, hospitalisation growth and case growth are approaching zero (slightly negative for cases today). IF this continues (obvious caveats apply) should both peak and decline lower than original omicron and BA2 wave. And without compulsory mitigations being employed.
Yes - and well spotted – although I think most of the country is getting on with its life and has largely moved on from covid. I realise that PB is rather different in that regard, panicking whenever there is a new 'wave', but most normal people seem to have accepted that waves will come and go forever, like the tides of the sea.
Oh i'm in the latter group definitely. Was just pleased to see the data showing/proving if it continues thusly that mitigations are just not necessary any more unless it 'evolves' somehow
Sam Coates of Sky has just said Truss has not got 30 votes yet
I would be amazed if that is true when the results are announced
He seems to be relying only on public endorsements as if they're all that matters, but there's still nearly half of MPs who haven't publicly declared so it's pointless speculation.
Mordaunt vs Starmer would be fascinating. I’m up for it
Mordaunt is probably best placed to defend seats in the blue Shires, though not obvious Red Wall appeal.
She has that ex-forces patriotic vibe that could go down well in some Red Wall constituencies, i think. She could probably hold on to a few of them. Some are probably beyond saving already TBH.
I’m a bit puzzled by her reliance on her supposed “military background”
Reading her wiki, she seems to have joined in her mid 30’s, not achieved much of note, or seen any action, then left after five years.
Inch by inch the UK seems to be moving away from the more turbulent waters it was in a few weeks ago. Boris being booted has helped but there's also some sense in recent days that the Bank has finally woken up and will push bigger rate rises to combat inflation. Loads of chatter from all over the city around it too so hopefully it's true.
There's going to be a few more tough months IMO but then we'll start to see base effects kick in because energy costs had already begun to surge in late 2021 and all we'll be left with is the effect of weaker sterling (still substantial tbf) by the start of next year.
The next PM needs to get a handle on costs and get moving with huge supply side reform. Kemi gets it, the sticking plaster rebates are addressing the symptoms of inflation rather than the cause (not enough investment in electricity generation) and we need to get moving with solving our deep economic to unlock future growth and the nation's potential rather than just giving away minor one off rebates.
The Tories would do well to get Kemi in the final two so she gets a national platform to speak about her ideas.
Raising interest rates to slow the economy, when people are already seeing their disposable income squeezed by higher commodity prices would be extremely brave.
I think we're in a slightly odd position that a big interest rate rise to catch up with the Fed will have an outsized effect on near term inflation as most of what we're seeing is commodity price inflation which is related to our weakening currency against USD. I doubt motorists will care that interest rates went up a bit when a clawing back 4-6% against USD brings pump prices down by 10-15p per litre along with a whole host of imported goods that are priced in dollars.
If it means the likes of Klarna go bankrupt then no one will shed any tears.
I don't think raising interest rates will have anything like the impact on Sterling you think it will.
Every time the Bank has refused to keep up with the Fed we saw prolonged weakening. There seems to be enough economic headroom for bigger rate rises than expected.
I'm also not convinced that rate rises hurt current mortgage holders that much, how many are on standard variable interest only style mortgages anyway? Landlords are the only class that gets hammered and, really, boo fucking hoo if they lose money on their investment.
25% max and I suspect they will be the smaller amounts where the upfront cost of the new application outweighs the savings.
*Laughs in ten year fixed*
(Though when I fixed I assumed rates would rise in a couple of years, not 5+)
Tory source: “Sir Gavin Williamson ruined the lives of millions of school children and repeatedly embarrassed himself as Education Secretary. It is for Tory MPs to decide whether Rishi Sunak is exercising good judgement in being associated with this man.”
In among the excitement, I'm internally following my own internal thread about covers of tunes in different styles - another one from Boss Hoss: Say a Little Prayer: just lovely. Like letting out a breath you didn't know you'd been holding.
And on a different tack, Glitzy Bag Hags. A skiffle version of Super Sharp Shooter. I saw this lot at a festival in Bristol: never have I seen such a euphoric, sweaty, packed dancefloor for a band which no-one had heard of. A better party than in this video, anyway.
Wow, they’ve got massive views. Cover bands can now make serious money from Youtube.
They're not just a youtube band - they're pretty active tourers. My favourites are their versions of 'Africa' and 'Where is my mind'.
It is what Penny Mordaunt alluded to this morning (which seems so long ago now) — covers bands play all the old hits, and they play them like on the record. The original artists move on.
Kathy Gyngell on GB News saying that ConservativeWoman have got a hit piece on Penny coming tomorrow, related to the “Women” problem, and the denial of her previous position.
I don't think it is the votewinner that they think, certainly not in the country at large, and probably not even in the Conservative party. Mordaunt expresses the mainstream view very well.
I think the problem is more that she had a view on this issue as a minister, and now has a slightly different view - but that she is now denying that the words she said and the actions she took as a minister ever happened. She’s Boris Johnson in a skirt.
Russian forces had already deported two million people from Ukraine to the territory of the Russian Federation, said President Volodymyr Zelensky in his address to the participants of the Asian Leadership Conference in Seoul on Wednesday https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1547226499903791105
They risk being "disappeared".
Russia will murder most of the men and say "they were killed by Ukraine shelling their own cities...."
No, I think that's a wild exaggeration. There's little doubt that torture and killings do occur in the occupied territories, and in particular in the filtration camps, but not on that scale.
The BBC had a reasonably good program this week looking at what happened to a few individuals from Mariupol. As they rely on Russian access, no doubt there was a fair amount of glossing over what went on, but the technique of only allowing escape from besieged cities into Russian held territory, and collection of refugees in 'filtration camps' was fairly well described. https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m00193v7
Life in the camps is made very unpleasant (extremely so for some), and it's made clear that a quick way out is to accept being deported into Russia 'willingly'. Often shipped thousands of miles from home.
Once in Russia, without resources, they are basically stuck. Some will find their way home eventually, but I'll bet many won't.
Wherever they go in Russia, they will be a permanent reminder of how Putin fucked up. People who do that do not prosper in Putin's Russia. That - and for the families, a reminder of the tens and tens and tens of thousands of dead and maimed Russian troops
It would be a heck of a gamble to replace such a well-known PM with someone few have heard of. Let alone recognise. May, Boris, Brown were all big players.
All awful though. Brown the most tinpot unworthy of a piss. You missed out Cameron though.
Cameron became PM via an election though. To replace a guy who won a stonking majority with someone few have heard of would be, I think, unprecedented.
Kathy Gyngell on GB News saying that ConservativeWoman have got a hit piece on Penny coming tomorrow, related to the “Women” problem, and the denial of her previous position.
I don't think it is the votewinner that they think, certainly not in the country at large, and probably not even in the Conservative party. Mordaunt expresses the mainstream view very well.
I agree, but I suspect this is the angle they’ll go for as the stop Penny argument if she goes to the membership. I am hoping that people see common sense on this front and don’t decide the leadership of our country on this issue!
Mordaunt vs Starmer would be fascinating. I’m up for it
Mordaunt is probably best placed to defend seats in the blue Shires, though not obvious Red Wall appeal.
She has that ex-forces patriotic vibe that could go down well in some Red Wall constituencies, i think. She could probably hold on to a few of them. Some are probably beyond saving already TBH.
I’m a bit puzzled by her reliance on her supposed “military background”
Reading her wiki, she seems to have joined in her mid 30’s, not achieved much of note, or seen any action, then left after five years.
Mordaunt is not awful for this field (but a lightweight still). Truss isn’t stupid, she’s weird and that’s more electorally dangerous. She’s the Con version of Ed Milliband.
In among the excitement, I'm internally following my own internal thread about covers of tunes in different styles - another one from Boss Hoss: Say a Little Prayer: just lovely. Like letting out a breath you didn't know you'd been holding.
And on a different tack, Glitzy Bag Hags. A skiffle version of Super Sharp Shooter. I saw this lot at a festival in Bristol: never have I seen such a euphoric, sweaty, packed dancefloor for a band which no-one had heard of. A better party than in this video, anyway.
Inch by inch the UK seems to be moving away from the more turbulent waters it was in a few weeks ago. Boris being booted has helped but there's also some sense in recent days that the Bank has finally woken up and will push bigger rate rises to combat inflation. Loads of chatter from all over the city around it too so hopefully it's true.
There's going to be a few more tough months IMO but then we'll start to see base effects kick in because energy costs had already begun to surge in late 2021 and all we'll be left with is the effect of weaker sterling (still substantial tbf) by the start of next year.
The next PM needs to get a handle on costs and get moving with huge supply side reform. Kemi gets it, the sticking plaster rebates are addressing the symptoms of inflation rather than the cause (not enough investment in electricity generation) and we need to get moving with solving our deep economic to unlock future growth and the nation's potential rather than just giving away minor one off rebates.
The Tories would do well to get Kemi in the final two so she gets a national platform to speak about her ideas.
Raising interest rates to slow the economy, when people are already seeing their disposable income squeezed by higher commodity prices would be extremely brave.
I think we're in a slightly odd position that a big interest rate rise to catch up with the Fed will have an outsized effect on near term inflation as most of what we're seeing is commodity price inflation which is related to our weakening currency against USD. I doubt motorists will care that interest rates went up a bit when a clawing back 4-6% against USD brings pump prices down by 10-15p per litre along with a whole host of imported goods that are priced in dollars.
If it means the likes of Klarna go bankrupt then no one will shed any tears.
I don't think raising interest rates will have anything like the impact on Sterling you think it will.
Every time the Bank has refused to keep up with the Fed we saw prolonged weakening. There seems to be enough economic headroom for bigger rate rises than expected.
I'm also not convinced that rate rises hurt current mortgage holders that much, how many are on standard variable interest only style mortgages anyway? Landlords are the only class that gets hammered and, really, boo fucking hoo if they lose money on their investment.
25% max and I suspect they will be the smaller amounts where the upfront cost of the new application outweighs the savings.
*Laughs in ten year fixed*
(Though when I fixed I assumed rates would rise in a couple of years, not 5+)
I am on 0.5% above base rate for the life of the mortgage. For a dozen years if has been an interest free loan. Even now it is a good rate, so I have been slow to pay it off.
Kathy Gyngell on GB News saying that ConservativeWoman have got a hit piece on Penny coming tomorrow, related to the “Women” problem, and the denial of her previous position.
It's possible to not care about the issue itself, while being perturbed by the fact that she seems to have been saying different things to different people on this subject. On the other hand maybe that's par for the course for politicians in general.
I like her too. I think she can heal a lot of division in the party. Much better than the rest of the field.
She's obviously got cullions, metaphorically, and she thinks quick. She's a liberal centrist but a patriotic Brexiteer. She might, as you say, unify the right
Best of all she is not some billionaire posh bloke. Enough of those, thanks, for now
I also think Starmer would seriously struggle against her. She's sharp
Just to remind you old chap, the "patriotic Brexiteer" can be viewed by some of us as an oxymoron (Putin's preference and all that). If you separate it out, that means oxy for Patriotic and...well you know the rest.
Just to remind you, old chap, the "patriotic Remainers" spent 40 years trying to tie us inextricably into a new foreign country - the EU.
They were just morons.
I imagine that there are a huge number of "Remainers" who have done a lot more for their country than a two braincell fuckwit keyboard warrior like yourself.
As for morons, not all people who voted Brexit are morons. Those that still believe in it (genuinely, not pretend like a lot of MPs) are the real morons. I guess you fit neatly into the latter category. By the way, Father Christmas is not real.
PS. The EU isn't a country you ignorant fuckwit.
Its become one though. Its a nascent one, an evolving federation, like 17th/18th century America or early Australia too.
Its fairly rapidly evolving into one, and the Euro means that is only going to ratchet in one direction.
Stop talking bollox you dimwit. Go back and read your Daily Express.
You're the one talking bollocks. The EU is rapidly evolving and the pressure for it to evolve further is not over.
You're as pig-ignorant as the fools who can't see past what today's opinion poll says and think that change from that is impossible. Evolution is very real and the pressure and precedent is there for EU to evolve into a federal nation.
The EU already has power over almost everything federal nations tend to have power over, apart from defence and central tax-rising powers. EU Defence plans are constantly spoken about and are surely a matter of when, not if. The Euro also means that tax rising plans are surely a matter of when, not if, too.
You're as naive as those who thought in the seventeenth century that the USA's Federal government would only delve into very limited areas. As time goes on the federal state inevitably centralises more and more power, and the EU is following that time-worn precedent as to how federations evolve.
If you think evolution is going to end today, you've got another thing coming.
Change your scratched record. It is not a country. Will it ever be? Not in my lifetime. In future who knows? In the future we might evolve back into apes and they will rule a world government. When I look at some of your posts I sometimes wonder if it hasn't already happened. Now go back to your Express. I am sure they predicted this heatwave didn't they?
It virtually is a country already. On almost every metric of what defines a country, it is one, already.
If you're not expecting it to be one in your lifetime, I didn't realise you were that old, I certainly expect it will be a fully fledged one in my lifetime and definitely my children's lifetime. I expect before I'm retired let alone died it will have its own nascent defence forces and tax raising powers, at which point there is no legitimate way to say that it isn't a country anymore.
Lol. You are officially a weirdo. I guess I should be sympathetic as you are still in mourning over the defenestration of your idol whom you once described as the greatest PM in your lifetime (or was it ever?). You are a man of little brain and judgement. Have a lovely day. Bad luck on your Sunak bet btw. He is almost as shit as Johnson, but I guess you can't tell these sort of things.
LOL you're funny. Sure, I'm mourning the defenestration of a PM I've wanted defenestrating for nearly a year. That's a good one (!)
It seems that you can't think beyond one-dimensional caricatures. Not only do you not understand why most of the country voted Leave, dismissing us all as "thick" or "tricked", not only do you not understand that the EU is evolving into a federal nation, but now it seems you don't understand how gambling works either. Your simple-minded lack of understanding shines through in almost all your posts, no wonder you get so angry and frustrated at your compatriots, you just don't seem capable of understanding them.
Whether Sunak wins or not will not make my tip on him a failure, nor mean I "can't tell" things - as it happens I opposed Sunak nearly a year ago personally and wrote here at the time when I did, before the polls turned. But while it will be a shame not to win my bet if I don't, I have built up a very healthy "all green" balance no matter who wins. I could have cashed out my Sunak bet for a guaranteed four-figure sum, but where would be the fun in that? But I do have a very healthy three figure sum coming my way no matter who wins this race.
Funnily enough having backed a rank outsider at 250/1 who then comes into being the almost odds-on favourite, makes it relatively easy to end up "all green" and in profit no matter who wins. Strange that. But you stick with your one-dimensional caricatures if you please.
Mordaunt vs Starmer would be fascinating. I’m up for it
Mordaunt is probably best placed to defend seats in the blue Shires, though not obvious Red Wall appeal.
She has that ex-forces patriotic vibe that could go down well in some Red Wall constituencies, i think. She could probably hold on to a few of them. Some are probably beyond saving already TBH.
I’m a bit puzzled by her reliance on her supposed “military background”
Reading her wiki, she seems to have joined in her mid 30’s, not achieved much of note, or seen any action, then left after five years.
Mordaunt is not awful for this field (but a lightweight still). Truss isn’t stupid, she’s weird and that’s more electorally dangerous. She’s the Con version of Ed Milliband.
These succession of hustings seem to be before groupings of MPs who are very right wing. I have been gobbling up every scrap we have heard from the hustings, one group sent Sunak away before his full 12 minutes, and they had nothing more to ask him. They have all been banging the tables enthusiastically for Badenoch and Truss. One MP came out and complained Rishi was far too realistic about how bad the economy is right now and didn’t make any fantasy promises.
In terms of being competitive going into the next election, neither MPs or the members can get this right even if they tried, can they?
Mordaunt vs Starmer would be fascinating. I’m up for it
Mordaunt is probably best placed to defend seats in the blue Shires, though not obvious Red Wall appeal.
She has that ex-forces patriotic vibe that could go down well in some Red Wall constituencies, i think. She could probably hold on to a few of them. Some are probably beyond saving already TBH.
I’m a bit puzzled by her reliance on her supposed “military background”
Reading her wiki, she seems to have joined in her mid 30’s, not achieved much of note, or seen any action, then left after five years.
Mordaunt is not awful for this field (but a lightweight still). Truss isn’t stupid, she’s weird and that’s more electorally dangerous. She’s the Con version of Ed Milliband.
Was she filmed trying to eat a cheese sandwich?
Only if Lady Thatcher was ever photographed trying to eat a cheese sandwich.
Inch by inch the UK seems to be moving away from the more turbulent waters it was in a few weeks ago. Boris being booted has helped but there's also some sense in recent days that the Bank has finally woken up and will push bigger rate rises to combat inflation. Loads of chatter from all over the city around it too so hopefully it's true.
There's going to be a few more tough months IMO but then we'll start to see base effects kick in because energy costs had already begun to surge in late 2021 and all we'll be left with is the effect of weaker sterling (still substantial tbf) by the start of next year.
The next PM needs to get a handle on costs and get moving with huge supply side reform. Kemi gets it, the sticking plaster rebates are addressing the symptoms of inflation rather than the cause (not enough investment in electricity generation) and we need to get moving with solving our deep economic to unlock future growth and the nation's potential rather than just giving away minor one off rebates.
The Tories would do well to get Kemi in the final two so she gets a national platform to speak about her ideas.
Raising interest rates to slow the economy, when people are already seeing their disposable income squeezed by higher commodity prices would be extremely brave.
I think we're in a slightly odd position that a big interest rate rise to catch up with the Fed will have an outsized effect on near term inflation as most of what we're seeing is commodity price inflation which is related to our weakening currency against USD. I doubt motorists will care that interest rates went up a bit when a clawing back 4-6% against USD brings pump prices down by 10-15p per litre along with a whole host of imported goods that are priced in dollars.
If it means the likes of Klarna go bankrupt then no one will shed any tears.
It seems implausible though that even a big interest rate rise will see Sterling recover versus the Dollar though - the dollar is appreciating against every currency.
It certainly will help mitigate it somewhat though and is again why forecasts that inflation will be worse in the UK than in the Eurozone are almost certainly off base. The BoE and Treasury have more scope to move than the ECB do.
Inch by inch the UK seems to be moving away from the more turbulent waters it was in a few weeks ago. Boris being booted has helped but there's also some sense in recent days that the Bank has finally woken up and will push bigger rate rises to combat inflation. Loads of chatter from all over the city around it too so hopefully it's true.
There's going to be a few more tough months IMO but then we'll start to see base effects kick in because energy costs had already begun to surge in late 2021 and all we'll be left with is the effect of weaker sterling (still substantial tbf) by the start of next year.
The next PM needs to get a handle on costs and get moving with huge supply side reform. Kemi gets it, the sticking plaster rebates are addressing the symptoms of inflation rather than the cause (not enough investment in electricity generation) and we need to get moving with solving our deep economic to unlock future growth and the nation's potential rather than just giving away minor one off rebates.
The Tories would do well to get Kemi in the final two so she gets a national platform to speak about her ideas.
Raising interest rates to slow the economy, when people are already seeing their disposable income squeezed by higher commodity prices would be extremely brave.
I think we're in a slightly odd position that a big interest rate rise to catch up with the Fed will have an outsized effect on near term inflation as most of what we're seeing is commodity price inflation which is related to our weakening currency against USD. I doubt motorists will care that interest rates went up a bit when a clawing back 4-6% against USD brings pump prices down by 10-15p per litre along with a whole host of imported goods that are priced in dollars.
If it means the likes of Klarna go bankrupt then no one will shed any tears.
I don't think raising interest rates will have anything like the impact on Sterling you think it will.
Every time the Bank has refused to keep up with the Fed we saw prolonged weakening. There seems to be enough economic headroom for bigger rate rises than expected.
I'm also not convinced that rate rises hurt current mortgage holders that much, how many are on standard variable interest only style mortgages anyway? Landlords are the only class that gets hammered and, really, boo fucking hoo if they lose money on their investment.
25% max and I suspect they will be the smaller amounts where the upfront cost of the new application outweighs the savings.
*Laughs in ten year fixed*
(Though when I fixed I assumed rates would rise in a couple of years, not 5+)
I am on 0.5% above base rate for the life of the mortgage. For a dozen years if has been an interest free loan. Even now it is a good rate, so I have been slow to pay it off.
If I’d bought in the aftermath of the crash I’d definitely have done that. I know a couple of people who got a below rates mortgage and got years of the bank paying them to buy a house. I was sure that the BoE would throttle back the QE and nudge rates up when I fixed but I was apparently wrong for a while. Not complaining, I value knowing exactly how much my mortgage is each month.
These succession of hustings seem to be before groupings of MPs who are very right wing. I have been gobbling up every scrap we have heard from the hustings, one group sent Sunak away before his full 12 minutes, and they had nothing more to ask him. They have all been banging the tables enthusiastically for Badenoch and Truss. One MP came out and complained Rishi was far too realistic about how bad the economy is right now and didn’t make any fantasy promises.
In terms of being competitive going into the next election, neither MPs or the members can get this right even if they tried, can they?
The public hustings start with ITV on Friday then onto BBC and Sky on Monday
Kathy Gyngell on GB News saying that ConservativeWoman have got a hit piece on Penny coming tomorrow, related to the “Women” problem, and the denial of her previous position.
It would be a heck of a gamble to replace such a well-known PM with someone few have heard of. Let alone recognise. May, Boris, Brown were all big players.
All awful though. Brown the most tinpot unworthy of a piss. You missed out Cameron though.
The task is a bit different here as well. 12 years in govt and if the Tories stand any chance, it needs something a bit “fresher”
Inch by inch the UK seems to be moving away from the more turbulent waters it was in a few weeks ago. Boris being booted has helped but there's also some sense in recent days that the Bank has finally woken up and will push bigger rate rises to combat inflation. Loads of chatter from all over the city around it too so hopefully it's true.
There's going to be a few more tough months IMO but then we'll start to see base effects kick in because energy costs had already begun to surge in late 2021 and all we'll be left with is the effect of weaker sterling (still substantial tbf) by the start of next year.
The next PM needs to get a handle on costs and get moving with huge supply side reform. Kemi gets it, the sticking plaster rebates are addressing the symptoms of inflation rather than the cause (not enough investment in electricity generation) and we need to get moving with solving our deep economic to unlock future growth and the nation's potential rather than just giving away minor one off rebates.
The Tories would do well to get Kemi in the final two so she gets a national platform to speak about her ideas.
Raising interest rates to slow the economy, when people are already seeing their disposable income squeezed by higher commodity prices would be extremely brave.
Given that the Fed is set on raising rates & our problem is (mostly) an oil price shock when we’re dependent on oil imports we’re damned if we do & damned if we don’t.
Don’t raise rates: £ craters even more, oil price goes through the roof when priced in £ and everyone suffers. Do raise rates, push up the price of £ denominsted debt, everyone suffers.
Everything depends on the second round effects though - pick your poison & hope for the least worst outcome.
But interest rates at 2-4% are still very cheap if nominal wages are going up at 7-9%. Even if there is a short element of pressure it will diminish very quickly. Energy prices, which still have the capacity to increase substantially, are much more of an issue.
In among the excitement, I'm internally following my own internal thread about covers of tunes in different styles - another one from Boss Hoss: Say a Little Prayer: just lovely. Like letting out a breath you didn't know you'd been holding.
And on a different tack, Glitzy Bag Hags. A skiffle version of Super Sharp Shooter. I saw this lot at a festival in Bristol: never have I seen such a euphoric, sweaty, packed dancefloor for a band which no-one had heard of. A better party than in this video, anyway.
Inch by inch the UK seems to be moving away from the more turbulent waters it was in a few weeks ago. Boris being booted has helped but there's also some sense in recent days that the Bank has finally woken up and will push bigger rate rises to combat inflation. Loads of chatter from all over the city around it too so hopefully it's true.
There's going to be a few more tough months IMO but then we'll start to see base effects kick in because energy costs had already begun to surge in late 2021 and all we'll be left with is the effect of weaker sterling (still substantial tbf) by the start of next year.
The next PM needs to get a handle on costs and get moving with huge supply side reform. Kemi gets it, the sticking plaster rebates are addressing the symptoms of inflation rather than the cause (not enough investment in electricity generation) and we need to get moving with solving our deep economic to unlock future growth and the nation's potential rather than just giving away minor one off rebates.
The Tories would do well to get Kemi in the final two so she gets a national platform to speak about her ideas.
Raising interest rates to slow the economy, when people are already seeing their disposable income squeezed by higher commodity prices would be extremely brave.
I think we're in a slightly odd position that a big interest rate rise to catch up with the Fed will have an outsized effect on near term inflation as most of what we're seeing is commodity price inflation which is related to our weakening currency against USD. I doubt motorists will care that interest rates went up a bit when a clawing back 4-6% against USD brings pump prices down by 10-15p per litre along with a whole host of imported goods that are priced in dollars.
If it means the likes of Klarna go bankrupt then no one will shed any tears.
I don't think raising interest rates will have anything like the impact on Sterling you think it will.
Every time the Bank has refused to keep up with the Fed we saw prolonged weakening. There seems to be enough economic headroom for bigger rate rises than expected.
I'm also not convinced that rate rises hurt current mortgage holders that much, how many are on standard variable interest only style mortgages anyway?
“20% [of mortgages] are floating so they will see the interest rate increase come through immediately,” Sarah Breeden, executive director for Financial Stability Strategy and Risk at the Bank of England, told MPs at the Treasury committee on Monday.
“Of the 80% that are fixed, our data suggests that around a quarter of those come out of that in the next 12 months. Of that 100% stock of mortgages actually only 40% are going to see higher rates in the immediate period ahead,” she added.
However, she admitted that more of that “will pass through over the next year” as more fixed rate mortgages come to an end.
It still needs to happen, but it's going to hurt for a lot of ordinary people.
I'm floating, but that's because of the property value hike making remortgage fees on the remaining repayment value uncompetitive when I came to look. And now it's basically like a car loan, each interest rate hike costs me a couple of quid a month
If it bores me I'll just pay it off.
Suspect a good number of floating mortgages are of this ilk.
Financial press reporting there's a one in three chance the Fed could go a full one percentage point next time out after US CPI beat expectations.
Yes, another 75bps from the Fed is a dead cert at this point. The BoE went 25bps last time, and has a lot of catching-up to do.
I'm not a forex expert but I just wonder about the effect of these widening differentials. The ECB and BoJ are effectively stymied at zero...whilst the US/UK/Canada are hiking.
The logical upshot would seem to be more poundings for the Euro/Yen, but I guess the flows are more complex than that.
Comments
1.82 Penny Mordaunt 54%
4.8 Rishi Sunak 20%
5.2 Liz Truss 19%
26 Tom Tugendhat
27 Kemi Badenoch
140 Suella Braverman
160 Jeremy Hunt
300 Dominic Raab
300 Nadhim Zahawi
lols
Tugendhat zooming back in
"Er - an election loser? (Go and make us a cup of tea, luv. Ta. Oh - and a biscuit.)"
Edit yep about 75% of mortgages are fixed rate https://www.ukfinance.org.uk/news-and-insight/blogs/how-the-bank-rate-affects-mortgage-rates#:~:text=Currently, 74 per cent of,increase in their monthly repayments.
Even raising interest rates by 2% would put many people in a state where they cannot pay their mortgages when they re-mortgage. The SVR rate has just passed 5% in the country.
In any event, the issues with short-term inflation are actually more supply-side issues, which raising interest rates do little to solve unless your intention is to so kill off demand that no one wants the products in the first place. If you want to curb inflation where it is demand-side led e.g. rising housing prices, you would be better off with higher / one off taxes
White van man will love her.
Billions, surely? Nothing spoils hyperbole as much as a lingering aftertaste of understatement.
There's little doubt that torture and killings do occur in the occupied territories, and in particular in the filtration camps, but not on that scale.
The BBC had a reasonably good program this week looking at what happened to a few individuals from Mariupol. As they rely on Russian access, no doubt there was a fair amount of glossing over what went on, but the technique of only allowing escape from besieged cities into Russian held territory, and collection of refugees in 'filtration camps' was fairly well described.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m00193v7
Life in the camps is made very unpleasant (extremely so for some), and it's made clear that a quick way out is to accept being deported into Russia 'willingly'. Often shipped thousands of miles from home.
Once in Russia, without resources, they are basically stuck. Some will find their way home eventually, but I'll bet many won't.
I'm also not convinced that rate rises hurt current mortgage holders that much, how many are on standard variable interest only style mortgages anyway? Landlords are the only class that gets hammered and, really, boo fucking hoo if they lose money on their investment.
Truss is fairly bright. Almost all front bench politicians are. Anyone dismissing her as an idiot is engaging in a bit of hyperbole. But she doesn't come across as such because she's not a great speaker.
But your job as PM is not just to think, it is to persuade and cajole and build consensus. And it's hard to do that if you're not a particularly good speaker.
On the other hand, there are plenty of politicians who are pretty good at speaking, and at persuading, but whose ability with a phrase masks other deficiencies.
Pippa Crerar
@PippaCrerar
·
30m
Labour putting out a very punch attack ad about Tory candidates’ tax status - basically ‘they put up your taxes while avoiding their own’. 🥊
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1547231435987292160
In the Midlands it's only 22 degrees atm. Not much of a heatwave right now.
Levelling up will be even more dead than it is already.
“20% [of mortgages] are floating so they will see the interest rate increase come through immediately,” Sarah Breeden, executive director for Financial Stability Strategy and Risk at the Bank of England, told MPs at the Treasury committee on Monday.
“Of the 80% that are fixed, our data suggests that around a quarter of those come out of that in the next 12 months. Of that 100% stock of mortgages actually only 40% are going to see higher rates in the immediate period ahead,” she added.
However, she admitted that more of that “will pass through over the next year” as more fixed rate mortgages come to an end.
It still needs to happen, but it's going to hurt for a lot of ordinary people.
Penny-wise = pound-foolish.
I would be amazed if that is true when the results are announced
There is no clear consensus as to the succession, and no senior figure who isn’t in some way tainted by the BoJo years.
The whole point of getting BoJo out and someone new in is the hope that you’ll be able to present a more competent and less scandalous alternative to the country in two years.
Putting Rishi or Liz in charge is as much of a gamble as elevating someone like Penny.
My favourites are their versions of 'Africa' and 'Where is my mind'.
The poll showing Penny beating all rivals in members vote is not THE poll of members, but just one of several polls of members this week have produced all over the shop answers, to be honest. Are we actually picking up on movement as the week progresses? I think not.
I can think of reasons why member polls wildly vary in answers, firstly how are the questions asked? And are their regional variations of who membership prefer, so a larger return from one region screws it?
My bias is I am still cheering for woke Penny to get it, my second pref would be Sunak, and sooner Truss is out I can sleep more soundly at night. However, as the week has gone on I am thinking Mourdant may contain a lot of inherent vice making her weak against Labour. Politics at the moment very susceptible to someone telling porkies and doubling down on it. Also her solutions to the big problems of the day are still sketchy.
I'm not saying we are in a similar situation now, but surely its worth thinking about. People are calling peaks in price increase rates, but those peaks simply are not coming. When you look at history, traders are being extraordinarily complacent on rates.
The odd person in a mask, seems very out of place but of course is their choice so good luck to them.
Even in the face of admitted "surge" in cases (was at a meeting this morning and they said 20 people had been off the previous week with it).
I don't think such polling is even close to realistic for anyone but Truss or Sunak.
How would they know a woman would be an election loser, they've never had one.
Reading her wiki, she seems to have joined in her mid 30’s, not achieved much of note, or seen any action, then left after five years.
Deeply unimpressive. Am I being unfair?
Whaddya think @Dura_Ace ? @TOPPING ?
(Though when I fixed I assumed rates would rise in a couple of years, not 5+)
Which is why they will be "disappeared".
I haven't been this excited since I saw my girlfriend after several months of lockdown kept us apart.
Mordaunt is not awful for this field (but a lightweight still). Truss isn’t stupid, she’s weird and that’s more electorally dangerous. She’s the Con version of Ed Milliband.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VPLIb_r8l-4
It seems that you can't think beyond one-dimensional caricatures. Not only do you not understand why most of the country voted Leave, dismissing us all as "thick" or "tricked", not only do you not understand that the EU is evolving into a federal nation, but now it seems you don't understand how gambling works either. Your simple-minded lack of understanding shines through in almost all your posts, no wonder you get so angry and frustrated at your compatriots, you just don't seem capable of understanding them.
Whether Sunak wins or not will not make my tip on him a failure, nor mean I "can't tell" things - as it happens I opposed Sunak nearly a year ago personally and wrote here at the time when I did, before the polls turned. But while it will be a shame not to win my bet if I don't, I have built up a very healthy "all green" balance no matter who wins. I could have cashed out my Sunak bet for a guaranteed four-figure sum, but where would be the fun in that? But I do have a very healthy three figure sum coming my way no matter who wins this race.
Funnily enough having backed a rank outsider at 250/1 who then comes into being the almost odds-on favourite, makes it relatively easy to end up "all green" and in profit no matter who wins. Strange that. But you stick with your one-dimensional caricatures if you please.
In terms of being competitive going into the next election, neither MPs or the members can get this right even if they tried, can they?
It certainly will help mitigate it somewhat though and is again why forecasts that inflation will be worse in the UK than in the Eurozone are almost certainly off base. The BoE and Treasury have more scope to move than the ECB do.
We both like a good innuendo at the right moment.
We are both also fans of the single entendre.
1. Penny
2. Rishi
3. Kemi
4. Liz (LOL)
What I expect
1. Rishi
2. Penny
3. Liz
4. Tom
5. Kemi.
https://twitter.com/GazpromEN/status/1547224254520999938
If it bores me I'll just pay it off.
Suspect a good number of floating mortgages are of this ilk.
Low turnout IMHO
I would put music on and dance.
I trust Sam Coates actually. I am so excited by that post,
1) Mordaunt
2) Truss
3) Sunak
4) Badenoch
The logical upshot would seem to be more poundings for the Euro/Yen, but I guess the flows are more complex than that.