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Sunak just edging it at the moment in the betting – politicalbetting.com

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  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,806

    Anyone who doesn't want the tortoise face should back Penny.
    Sunak is TOAST on that poll
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,581
    edited July 2022
    tlg86 said:

    I agree with that to a point. She really ought to have been ready for a confrontation. It shouldn't have come as a surprise.
    She definitely could have handled it better - even at the time people questioned if she had the power, and a certain level of obnoxious ness must be borne.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    Miss Vance, that's an unexpected move by Badenoch.

    Can you embed your reply in post so we don't have to scroll back up the page to see what on Earth you are referring to every bloody time?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Badenoch not among those polled (or reported?)

    There's a reason Keir Starmer is attacking me at #PMQs today.

    It's because he knows we're the only team that can beat Labour 👇





    https://twitter.com/RishiSunak/status/1547177911236558848?s=20&t=8twPNOmPc6YmLHMiGZTiIw
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,371

    I've not watched Stranger Things, but I did watch the clip that used that song. And my goodness: it is a most effective piece of TV. Quite stunning, in fact. if the whole thing is anything like that then it must be sublime.

    (We don't have Netflix...)
    NSFW warning, but here it is (and probably loads of spoilers)

    I love this scene; the mood, the swapping between her Hell, her past and the other children trying to help her. The music. It's not exactly a novel idea, but it is done so absolutely brilliantly.

    Even without knowing the context of Max, the kids, or the evil dude, it works.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bV0RAcuG2Ao
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,821

    I was at Half Man Half Biscuit in Leeds a few weeks ago and there were loads of younger people. To be honest, I was surprised how many.

    Of course 85% of the audience was 40-plus overeducated, underpaid beta male centrist dads, just like me (not that I'm a dad, but you get what I mean). But there was a respectable amount of young uns. Some of them were even female. I saw one girl, probably early 20s, happily sporting a hi-vis vest and some - presumably Joy Division - oven gloves.
    That was not the impression I got of the audience in Manchester! I have never been part of an audience which was older, fatter, or more disreputable looking.

    Not much to conclude from that except that individual views are partial.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,481
    Sunak's job is to avoid facing Mordaunt in the final two. This lends some hope, if she can make it through the first round, to Badenoch, who (seems) to be more impressive than Truss.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,581

    Maybe he didn't, but he found out before giving a typically gracious response

    "Mr Rees-Mogg – who is a devout Catholic - appeared to be flattered by the comments.


    He tweeted: “Even if my leg is being pulled I am honoured by this exceptionally kind endorsement by Mr Lydon, alias Johnny Rotten.”"
    He was much more bearable when he was unusual but courteous. Even funny.

    Being in government made his flaws much more impactful.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,705

    I agree, but I would have thought that a very good proportion of prominent pop and rock artists did the same in the 60s-80s. Not to excuse it, but just to note he probably wasn't that unusual.
    Yes, the fact they were willing to talk about it in interviews shows it was “a different time”, at least to some extent.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,712
    kle4 said:

    Its standard. MPs think that fixes everything. Nothing. But some MPs will whip them up about being denied a fair say. Same thing was done (briefly) when some thought Boris might not easily win among MPs.

    None. But some MPs will whip them up a out 'denying' the members the chance to vote
    Contrary to MISTY’s impressions, Mordaunt is polling very well among party members in the latest polling.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    Nigelb said:

    Plays into Leon's 'let's take a dangerous gamble... what could possibly go wrong' meme.
    The only purpose of life is to be adventurous. "Stay safe" is the most vacuous advice imaginable.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,806
    Mordaunt now CLEAR favourite on Betfair
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,806
    Exciting!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    edited July 2022
    120 minutes for 358 MPs to vote gives an average of about 20 seconds for each one to vote.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,307
    Leon said:

    Sunak is TOAST on that poll
    Rishi’s only hope is getting to the final round with a candidate who then self-combusts through scandal.

    Could we possibly see a surprise result in the first round? Rishi underperforming as MPs realise he is unlikely to win the membership, and switching support?


  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited July 2022
    USA inflation: 9.1%

    Highest in 40 years.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,519
    edited July 2022
    You know you are getting old when you go to a gig and you see say a father and son wearing the album t-shirt which you bought when it came out and neither of those wearing it were alive.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,581
    Leon said:

    But I’ve done that all my life - taken a dangerous gamble, “what could possibly go wrong” - and here I am on the shores of Kotor Bay

    Works for Boris too.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,850

    Rishi’s only hope is getting to the final round with a candidate who then self-combusts through scandal.

    Could we possibly see a surprise result in the first round? Rishi underperforming as MPs realise he is unlikely to win the membership, and switching support?
    Imagine if Team Rishi managed to engineer a run-off against Braverman, and then he lost.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,738

    Rishi’s only hope is getting to the final round with a candidate who then self-combusts through scandal.

    Could we possibly see a surprise result in the first round? Rishi underperforming as MPs realise he is unlikely to win the membership, and switching support?


    Not today but it's possible tomorrow as the game becomes clearer
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    Leon said:

    Sunak is TOAST on that poll
    His strategy is to get so many votes with MPs that party members feel pressurised to support him even though they don't really want to vote for him.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,307
    If Kemi survives today, get on her IMHO.

    There’s got to be a non-insignificant chance we could see Penny v Liz or Penny v Kemi.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,738
    edited July 2022
    Cookie said:

    That was not the impression I got of the audience in Manchester! I have never been part of an audience which was older, fatter, or more disreputable looking.

    Not much to conclude from that except that individual views are partial.
    Echo and the Bunnymen - I was surprised how young some of the audience were given that the youngest song played was from circa 1987.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,519
    edited July 2022

    USA inflation: 9.1%

    Just transitory......as one of the big advisors to Biden said last year, the west has fixed inflation so we can continue the expansive monetary policy...it seems they meant to say fixed it to be at an eye wateringly high level.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,845
    Andy_JS said:

    120 minutes for 358 MPs to vote gives an average of about 20 seconds for each one to vote.

    Why can't they do it electronically??? Then it need only take minutes
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,729

    Mr. B, well, until leaving the EU causes the genocide of 20 million people (USSR alone) I think one might just hold a better standing than the other.

    Socialism and communism are not really the same thing, though.
    For example this guy, who I came across recently while reading around Polish and Ukrainian history. An early Polish advocate for Ukrainian independence.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juliusz_Mieroszewski
    ...Mieroszewski was not only a dedicated socialist, but was strongly opposed to communism and the Soviet domination of Eastern Europe. A crucial, and at the time unique, consideration of the Kultura programme was the Polish relationship with the national aspirations of the country's former minorities, the Belarusians, Lithuanians and Ukrainians...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Voting has started.

    Did we ever get word of the MPs who had the whip suspended? Also, will we see Boris Johnson in the voting room? Traditionally, the outgoing leader abstains, but we know quite a bit about Johnson and tradition.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295

    Why can't they do it electronically??? Then it need only take minutes
    Because electronic voting isn't reliable and can be hacked.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,307
    Badenoch now fourth on declared supporters, leapfrogging TT
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,729

    Can you embed your reply in post so we don't have to scroll back up the page to see what on Earth you are referring to every bloody time?
    Don't be silly. :smile:
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255

    I a not a big one for cancel culture etc, but I do find that quite incredible that he seemed to have got a pass for so long and held up as music radio god, given he admitted having sex with under aged girls, while somebody did a hurty tweet 10 years and straight in the dog house.
    Reading around it it seems that all of the evidence for this comes from Peel himself openly admitting it in the past. There also don't appear to have been any formal complaints from the girls involved. I am not saying it makes it right but I wonder of that is the reason for the lack of further action.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,552
    Sandpit said:

    Voting has started.

    Did we ever get word of the MPs who had the whip suspended? Also, will we see Boris Johnson in the voting room? Traditionally, the outgoing leader abstains, but we know quite a bit about Johnson and tradition.

    How else can he do a write-in for himself?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,581
    Sometimes frontrunners are frontrunners for a reason. Members would be bloody minded to feel like MPs are trying to force them to vote for the leading candidate.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    kle4 said:

    Its standard. MPs think that fixes everything.
    I did wonder whether Braverman or Patel would pull out the 'bring back hanging' option.

    There isn't much that they can do on prison sentences, because they've passed lots of legislation to make them longer and creating lots of new imprisonable offences but now seem to have run out of obvious options. Doing this was a very short sighted policy in my view, it satisfies popular demands but forces future governments to pay the cost (of housing the prisoners).

  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,821
    Leon said:

    But I’ve done that all my life - taken a dangerous gamble, “what could possibly go wrong” - and here I am on the shores of Kotor Bay

    Yes but there is a bit of survivor bias here.
    There are probably lots of people who have taken that approach. But we only get to hear from those for whom the gamble pays off. If it hadn't paid off for you we probably wouldn't be hearing you advocate the approach.
    What we need to do to evaluate this is find 20 or so 20-something high risk takers and see where they get to 30 years later.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    Sunak out to 4 on Betfair, Mordaunt just over evens.

    Good. Anyone but Sunak. In fact, I wouldn't vote Conservative if he was the leader.



  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    Badenoch not among those polled (or reported?)

    There's a reason Keir Starmer is attacking me at #PMQs today.

    It's because he knows we're the only team that can beat Labour 👇





    https://twitter.com/RishiSunak/status/1547177911236558848?s=20&t=8twPNOmPc6YmLHMiGZTiIw

    I'm very surprised by Mordaunt's low score on that poll. I'd have thought she would have been the most popular with the public. But I suspect there is a strong name recognition effect.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,307
    Andy_JS said:

    His strategy is to get so many votes with MPs that party members feel pressurised to support him even though they don't really want to vote for him.
    The interesting thing is, I think that could have worked of it had gone to the membership in 2016, but I’m not sure the same would hold true now.

    The membership just aren’t keen on Rishi. I don’t think they want him as PM. Given the current state of the Tory Party I don’t suspect they’d be willing to make a trade off for party unity - members are much more likely to vote for their favourite candidate, this leadership election is a roll of the dice as to whether they can save a majority in 2024 anyway - might as well go for your favourite.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,127
    Quite a few MPs now wondering if they announced too soon. After a composed launch the Mordmentum is now looking strong. PM4PM is first candidate dropping below evens on Betfair https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1547198628904591360/photo/1
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788
    Sandpit said:

    Voting has started.

    Did we ever get word of the MPs who had the whip suspended? Also, will we see Boris Johnson in the voting room? Traditionally, the outgoing leader abstains, but we know quite a bit about Johnson and tradition.

    I don't think that is tradition for them not to vote, just not to endorse. May voted in the 2019 leadership election as turnout amongst MPs was 100%.
  • Sunak still favourite to make final 2

    Make Final 2 - Conservative Leader Contest
    Win
    1/5 Rishi Sunak
    1/3 Penny Mordaunt
    7/4 Liz Truss
    7/1 Tom Tugendhat
    8/1 Kemi Badenoch
    14/1 Jeremy Hunt
    25/1 Suella Braverman
    33/1 Zahawi

    https://www.betfair.com/sport/politics
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,192
    edited July 2022
    Leon said:

    Mordaunt now CLEAR favourite on Betfair

    Penny is odds-on!

    1.95 Penny Mordaunt 51%
    4.6 Rishi Sunak 21%
    4.7 Liz Truss 21%
    20 Kemi Badenoch 5%
    36 Tom Tugendhat
    140 Jeremy Hunt
    150 Dominic Raab
    200 Suella Braverman
    250 Nadhim Zahawi
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    .
    RH1992 said:

    I don't think that is tradition for them not to vote, just not to endorse. May voted in the 2019 leadership election as turnout amongst MPs was 100%.
    Did she? I thought both Cameron and May abstained. I stand corrected if so.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    As someone was saying above, the comments on ToryHome are largely anti-Penny, which is odd.

    That all said, other commentators on the site have been making the point that much of the Tory membership is legacy-Cameron, and leans left of Tory voters overall (many rightwingers are Ukip members, not Tory members).

    Hence why Penny polls so well with the membership perhaps? They are more liberal than one might think?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,581

    Never forget she was in the wrong that night. These things matter...
    She made a procedural error. The only readon
    MrEd said:

    Good. Anyone but Sunak. In fact, I wouldn't vote Conservative if he was the leader.



    Why is that? He was well regarded by Tories until recently (and as Chancellor by all his rivals until last week).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,729
    Leon said:

    But I’ve done that all my life - taken a dangerous gamble, “what could possibly go wrong” - and here I am on the shores of Kotor Bay

    I've no problem with your doing so.
    Just that as a national strategy, it leaves something to be desired.

    Put her in charge of a department first, and see how that turns out.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    Kemi Badenoch is value on BE at the moment in my opinion.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,552

    You know you are getting old when you go to a gig and you see say a father and son wearing the album t-shirt which you bought when it came out and neither of those wearing it were alive.

    Cool kid in Totnes was wearing a RUN-DMC T. Me wearing my country gardening gear, looking about 1,000. I asked him if he had seen them live. "Nah mate."

    "They were brilliant. Beastie Boys were the support...."

    His face was a picture.....
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,317
    Leon said:

    Deleted for being interesting but duplicated


    If it was a duplicate of the post below, it really wasn't. Besides which she is a rabid right- winger.
  • Andy_JS said:

    120 minutes for 358 MPs to vote gives an average of about 20 seconds for each one to vote.

    It only normally takes about 15 minutes for ~640 MPs to vote in a division.

    Why would it take 8 times as long, for half as many MPs?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Andy_JS said:

    Kemi Badenoch is value on BE at the moment in my opinion.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234

    I think she definitely gets the 30 votes,

    Badenoch and Mourdaunt had the best received launch events.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Is John Baron still taking soundings,,,

    :)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939

    It only normally takes about 15 minutes for ~640 MPs to vote in a division.

    Why would it take 8 times as long, for half as many MPs?
    They are marking a piece of paper and placing it in a box rather than just walking through a doorway?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,825
    kle4 said:

    Sometimes frontrunners are frontrunners for a reason. Members would be bloody minded to feel like MPs are trying to force them to vote for the leading candidate.

    And sometimes they aren't. This contest pits unproven and semi-proven candidates over a candidate (Sunak) who has proven himself inadequate.
  • What's worse out of rabid and loony?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295

    It only normally takes about 15 minutes for ~640 MPs to vote in a division.

    Why would it take 8 times as long, for half as many MPs?
    There's only one ballot box I think. I don't know how many voting booths they have.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939
    Still less than a week since Javid and Sunak resigned
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,786
    edited July 2022
    It's just dawned on me that Kemi Badenoch is, I suspect, influenced by Munira Mirza, who may well be supporting her in the background.

    Mirza was, for those who don't recall, Boris's Head of Policy until her resignation in February, and an ex-member of the Revolutionary Communist Party. Her and Badenoch seem to have a lot in common.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Munira_Mirza
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    What's worse out of rabid and loony?

    Rabid. Loony plus it's catching.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754
    Who got the vital Christi endorsement and inherited his support?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,127
    Hearing the two Alba MPs who got chucked out of a parliament for heckling today could be suspended for 8 days.

    If they are they won’t get paid over the summer

    Expensive heckle that

    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1547201384935817219
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,519

    Cool kid in Totnes was wearing a RUN-DMC T. Me wearing my country gardening gear, looking about 1,000. I asked him if he had seen them live. "Nah mate."

    "They were brilliant. Beastie Boys were the support...."

    His face was a picture.....
    You should have said fighting for your right to party before you were born....
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,676
    edited July 2022
    I know there's insider trading, but I can't see how anyone has the knowledge to propel Mordaunt to less than evens in a few hours. There must a factor we don't know about (a big endorsement/withdrawal?) but even then it looks far too short.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,233
    Kevin Foster comes out for Liz.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161

    It only normally takes about 15 minutes for ~640 MPs to vote in a division.

    Why would it take 8 times as long, for half as many MPs?
    MPs vote in a division by walking through doors and being counted as they do so.

    The leadership vote uses bits of paper, and requires holding a pen or pencil the right way round and reading the names of the candidates.
  • Carnyx said:

    Rabid. Loony plus it's catching.
    Oh dear. It’s the right and nationalists that get called rabid
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,233

    I know there's insider trading, but I can't see how anyone has the knowledge to propel Mordaunt to less than evens in a few hours. There must a factor we don't know about (a big endorsement/withdrawal?) but even then it looks far too short.

    It's based on the members survey.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,738

    And sometimes they aren't. This contest pits unproven and semi-proven candidates over a candidate (Sunak) who has proven himself inadequate.
    Inadequate but still better than the other candidates given their love of the magic money tree and strange choice of tax cuts.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited July 2022

    I know there's insider trading, but I can't see how anyone has the knowledge to propel Mordaunt to less than evens in a few hours. There must a factor we don't know about (a big endorsement/withdrawal?) but even then it looks far too short.

    Looks like it’s based off the YouGov members’ poll, that shows him coming second to all plausible rivals in the runoff.
    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1547192886571278336
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,519
    edited July 2022
    The other time you know you are getting old is when some youngster says I love such and such new song, its a cover of some old song by x....and you have to tell them that was itself a cover of....
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,795

    Penny is odds-on!

    1.95 Penny Mordaunt 51%
    4.6 Rishi Sunak 21%
    4.7 Liz Truss 21%
    20 Kemi Badenoch 5%
    36 Tom Tugendhat
    140 Jeremy Hunt
    150 Dominic Raab
    200 Suella Braverman
    250 Nadhim Zahawi
    Wow, that is low...I'm not sure if she makes it to the top two though.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,307
    edited July 2022
    Sunak was/is the frontrunner on the basis that he has been groomed for the Tory leadership ever since he became CoE. Oh how the Tory MPs swooned when their new, young, telegenic Blair clone arrived on the scene and hit new heights of popularity with the public during the pandemic.

    It has been an unspoken rule that should Boris have fallen under a bus (a bendy bus?), Rishi is the man to steady the ship.

    There is still a hangover with the MPs it seems longing after those glory days when he was the annointed successor, but it ignores the economic troubles the country faces, the revelations about his wife’s tax affairs earlier this year and the FPN. Why also did he back Boris so long? These are all serious wounds and Labour have the attack lines ready.

    He will not win this election.
  • I know there's insider trading, but I can't see how anyone has the knowledge to propel Mordaunt to less than evens in a few hours. There must a factor we don't know about (a big endorsement/withdrawal?) but even then it looks far too short.

    Surely its the response to the opinion poll? It shows Mordaunt beating Sunak by 67% to 28%

    https://news.sky.com/story/tory-leadership-race-live-updates-first-leadership-ballot-takes-place-today-amid-row-over-dirty-tricks-12593360?postid=4157881#liveblog-body
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,192
    edited July 2022

    Penny is odds-on!

    1.95 Penny Mordaunt 51%
    4.6 Rishi Sunak 21%
    4.7 Liz Truss 21%
    20 Kemi Badenoch 5%
    36 Tom Tugendhat
    140 Jeremy Hunt
    150 Dominic Raab
    200 Suella Braverman
    250 Nadhim Zahawi
    Something has happened besides Penny Mordaunt's launch and the new poll. Is a Mordaunt fan trying to rig the market or has Rishi come out for sending small boys up chimneys?

    ETA I see Nick Palmer has also raised an eyebrow.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,795

    I know there's insider trading, but I can't see how anyone has the knowledge to propel Mordaunt to less than evens in a few hours. There must a factor we don't know about (a big endorsement/withdrawal?) but even then it looks far too short.

    I wonder if Sunak knows he can't win he pulls in behind Mordaunt to scupper Truss.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    The other time you know you are getting old is when some youngster says I love such and such new song, its a cover of some old song by x....and you have to tell them that was itself a cover of....

    So true. That does work on us too though, I spent two decades thinking Always On My Mind was by the Pet Shop Boys.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,792

    I'm very surprised by Mordaunt's low score on that poll. I'd have thought she would have been the most popular with the public. But I suspect there is a strong name recognition effect.
    Yep, and it diminishes Sunak further because of it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,581
    edited July 2022

    And sometimes they aren't. This contest pits unproven and semi-proven candidates over a candidate (Sunak) who has proven himself inadequate.
    Oh I'm not saying they should definitely go for Sunak. But there seems a bit of a 'anyone but the favourite' reaction, as if anyone who tops the MP ballot would not be acceptable for that reason alone

    He looks a lightweight to me, I can see why pretty much any other person in final two probably beats him.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,552
    Pulpstar said:

    Kevin Foster comes out for Liz.

    And Penny a Torquay girl. Tut tut, Kevin.....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,581

    Wow, that is low...I'm not sure if she makes it to the top two though.
    Last time the killer point was who would help MPs best to keep their seats.

    There may be polling on that, but MPs dont seem persuaded anyone is standout on that point.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,264
    Selebian said:

    Just sold a bit of Sunak and bought a bit of Truss. Still green on both, but Truss looks reasonable value to me while Sunak a bit short, perhaps.

    Edit: Also, I want some more winnings to soften the blow if we do end up with Truss as PM!

    And now sold some Mordaunt to buy a bit of Rishi back at longer odds. May well be a bit of a move back after the voting results tonight (if so, I'll likely switch again). Still all green.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180

    USA inflation: 9.1%

    Highest in 40 years.

    I blame Brexit, of course.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    Scott_xP said:

    Hearing the two Alba MPs who got chucked out of a parliament for heckling today could be suspended for 8 days.

    If they are they won’t get paid over the summer

    Expensive heckle that

    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1547201384935817219

    What were they heckling about? I've searched but can't find an answer.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,307

    I wonder if Sunak knows he can't win he pulls in behind Mordaunt to scupper Truss.
    If Sunak loses I am not convinced we will see him returning to government.
  • theakestheakes Posts: 958
    Seems the penny has dropped!!!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,371
    For any rocketry geeks who missed Rocket Lab's Electron launch this morning, you have another opportunity in a short while.

    ArianeSpace are launching their newly updated Vega-C rocket for the first time. The stream should start in ten minutes.

    Watch here:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mgxx3A2FIQ8
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,806
    Cookie said:

    Yes but there is a bit of survivor bias here.
    There are probably lots of people who have taken that approach. But we only get to hear from those for whom the gamble pays off. If it hadn't paid off for you we probably wouldn't be hearing you advocate the approach.
    What we need to do to evaluate this is find 20 or so 20-something high risk takers and see where they get to 30 years later.
    Yes

    For various reasons I've been looking back at my life recently

    There are at least 5 occasions when I should have died. And I mean, really definitely odds against me surviving

    A couple can give me a cold sweat even now

    And also multiple occasions when I took dramatic if not foolish risks, where, if it had gone wrong, I would now be in a much worse place

    But of course there is a selection bias here. Perhaps if I hadn't taken some of these risks, life would have turned out better?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,192

    Something has happened besides Penny Mordaunt's launch and the new poll. Is a Mordaunt fan trying to rig the market or has Rishi come out for sending small boys up chimneys?

    ETA I see Nick Palmer has also raised an eyebrow.
    Watching the betting and seeing Rishi come in a point and go out a point and come in a point and rinse and repeat. It does not look natural.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,845
    Andy_JS said:

    Because electronic voting isn't reliable and can be hacked.
    They managed to make it work for Parliament
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,307
    Breaking News

    Chishti throws the considerable weight of his leadership campaign behind Tugendhat
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,233
    Members numbers do look absolubtely terminal for Rishi.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,552

    Yep, and it diminishes Sunak further because of it.
    Diminish Rishi much more and you're going to be needing an electron microscope....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180
    If Sunak is going to win this, he needs to win big today, I would suggest at least 40% of the votes. He needs to look the inevitable choice so that he picks up endorsements of those eliminated. If he just wins I think he will be overtaken, possibly twice, eliminating him. Even more so if he doesn't top the poll of course. Any talk of him lending out votes to anyone else is utter foolishness, he needs every single one he can get.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    They managed to make it work for Parliament
    Yes indeed, Holyrood has had it for years, decades now. And Westminster online too. Senedd, maybe NIA?

    We don't have to stick in the C18 just because of Mr R-M any more.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,127
    Nadhim Zahawi is using NZ4PM as his leadership election tag. If you click on http://NZ4PM.com you are redirected to Penny Mordaunt’s leadership home page. Comedy gold. You gotta love this contest
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,806

    If it was a duplicate of the post below, it really wasn't. Besides which she is a rabid right- winger.
    This may come as a dreadful surprise, but I have a distinct tolerance for "rabid right wingers", especially if they are only "rabidly right wing" by the warped standards of the deviant Woke Left

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    edited July 2022

    For any rocketry geeks who missed Rocket Lab's Electron launch this morning, you have another opportunity in a short while.

    ArianeSpace are launching their newly updated Vega-C rocket for the first time. The stream should start in ten minutes.

    Watch here:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mgxx3A2FIQ8

    Ta muchly. Brief hold, but not long - countdonw restarting at 1413 BST (I think?).
This discussion has been closed.