Why did he even delete his first tweet? He obviously wants to just come out and say Tory Members are racists.
Plus he's blocked several commentators from the last incident so should be gentler for him now.
Is he wrong? Older Conservative members may well lean a certain way.
My Grandfather now nearly 90 has some considerably un-twitterable views. Yet a staunch Conservative and from the membership of his local Conservative club not alone.
If I was betting one of my heuristics would be that the white candidates might well benefit from a membership vote.
Probably need to see all the head to heads. If Hunt beat Badenoch, that might suggest quite a big issue with race.
Cool. What an interesting rocket. Looks like it did what it was supposed to.
Why are they talking in gibberish?
They're French?
Is it? Or is it Swahili? Sounds like someone gargling. They should stop it. Talk fucking English like a normal person. Talking a babbled foreign dialect in a serious moment or in some professional capacity is a ridiculous affectation, like me doing my driving test in mime
You seem to be in a particularly good mood today! A particularly fine wine and sunset combination?
I'm stone cold sober and it's only 3pm. However I do think six days of living right by the sea - it's literally 2 metres away from my bed and my living room - has energised me. All that ozone!
I sun and swim every day, that's it. Most pleasant. I have to return to Blighty this week but I a minded to come back to Montenegro v soon
I hope you will be able to cope with the hotter weather here.
I like her too. I think she can heal a lot of division in the party. Much better than the rest of the field.
She's obviously got cullions, metaphorically, and she thinks quick. She's a liberal centrist but a patriotic Brexiteer. She might, as you say, unify the right
Best of all she is not some billionaire posh bloke. Enough of those, thanks, for now
I also think Starmer would seriously struggle against her. She's sharp
Just to remind you old chap, the "patriotic Brexiteer" can be viewed by some of us as an oxymoron (Putin's preference and all that). If you separate it out, that means oxy for Patriotic and...well you know the rest.
Just to remind you, old chap, the "patriotic Remainers" spent 40 years trying to tie us inextricably into a new foreign country - the EU.
They were just morons.
No, it was ours. We were in the driving seat, we shaped policy, we had vetos.
We could come and go as we pleased, we could stay anywhere within 28 states for more than 90 days, hell, we could even live there with virtually no constraints. We owned the Eiffel Tower, we owned the Coliseum, the Parthenon, Prague and the Costa del Sol. These treasures belonged to us as much as they did the French, the Italians, the Greeks, the Czechs and the Spanish, and now they don't.
I like her too. I think she can heal a lot of division in the party. Much better than the rest of the field.
She's obviously got cullions, metaphorically, and she thinks quick. She's a liberal centrist but a patriotic Brexiteer. She might, as you say, unify the right
Best of all she is not some billionaire posh bloke. Enough of those, thanks, for now
I also think Starmer would seriously struggle against her. She's sharp
Just to remind you old chap, the "patriotic Brexiteer" can be viewed by some of us as an oxymoron (Putin's preference and all that). If you separate it out, that means oxy for Patriotic and...well you know the rest.
Just to remind you, old chap, the "patriotic Remainers" spent 40 years trying to tie us inextricably into a new foreign country - the EU.
They were just morons.
I imagine that there are a huge number of "Remainers" who have done a lot more for their country than a two braincell fuckwit keyboard warrior like yourself.
As for morons, not all people who voted Brexit are morons. Those that still believe in it (genuinely, not pretend like a lot of MPs) are the real morons. I guess you fit neatly into the latter category. By the way, Father Christmas is not real.
PS. The EU isn't a country you ignorant fuckwit.
Its become one though. Its a nascent one, an evolving federation, like 17th/18th century America or early Australia too.
Its fairly rapidly evolving into one, and the Euro means that is only going to ratchet in one direction.
Stop talking bollox you dimwit. Go back and read your Daily Express.
You're the one talking bollocks. The EU is rapidly evolving and the pressure for it to evolve further is not over.
You're as pig-ignorant as the fools who can't see past what today's opinion poll says and think that change from that is impossible. Evolution is very real and the pressure and precedent is there for EU to evolve into a federal nation.
The EU already has power over almost everything federal nations tend to have power over, apart from defence and central tax-rising powers. EU Defence plans are constantly spoken about and are surely a matter of when, not if. The Euro also means that tax rising plans are surely a matter of when, not if, too.
You're as naive as those who thought in the seventeenth century that the USA's Federal government would only delve into very limited areas. As time goes on the federal state inevitably centralises more and more power, and the EU is following that time-worn precedent as to how federations evolve.
If you think evolution is going to end today, you've got another thing coming.
If the Tories can think of nothing more effective to take them into the next GE than trying to fight this particular culture war, I suspect they’ll lose heavily.
At any other time, sure: stirring up a good five minutes hate can be a great campaign strategy. But going into the worst cost of living crisis in a generation? Are ordinary people worrying about where their next meal is going to come from really going to be impressed by this kind of “Look, a squirrel!” campaigning?
Maybe I‘m wrong & going full throttle on this stuff will turn out to be a great distraction from the electorate’s concerns about whether Granny is going to be able to afford to heat her home in the coming winter.
It's not a culture-war thing, it's a sanity thing. Who wants to vote for someone so out with the fairies that they think, or more likely pretend to think, that men can get pregnant? It infests everything else they say, especially when they try to evade the question.
Also, it is causing enormous practical problems. The NHS is being disrupted because they are terrified of falling foul of the trans lobby.
On the list of NHS disruptions, this has to down somewhere below whether they’ve got enough toilet roll for the week I suspect. Come on.
Again, as I said the first time: people might well get riled up about this stuff under other circumstances, but right now? I just don’t see it. I think it’s going to be seen as a massive distraction from the issues that people actually care about, regardless of their personal beliefs on the topic.
4 Women 2 of White and Non White 4 Men 2 Non White 2 white
Go find another leadership contest in UK that is as diverse. He is a person who deserves to be spoken of in language that is defamatory. And to have a fox stuffed up his Kimino
If the Tories can think of nothing more effective to take them into the next GE than trying to fight this particular culture war, I suspect they’ll lose heavily.
At any other time, sure: stirring up a good five minutes hate can be a great campaign strategy. But going into the worst cost of living crisis in a generation? Are ordinary people worrying about where their next meal is going to come from really going to be impressed by this kind of “Look, a squirrel!” campaigning?
Maybe I‘m wrong & going full throttle on this stuff will turn out to be a great distraction from the electorate’s concerns about whether Granny is going to be able to afford to heat her home in the coming winter.
It's not a culture-war thing, it's a sanity thing. Who wants to vote for someone so out with the fairies that they think, or more likely pretend to think, that men can get pregnant? It infests everything else they say, especially when they try to evade the question.
Well, we have had Trans-men give birth at my hospital. It really is no longer a rare event.
No need to change the language for everyone else, but some sensitivity is needed for specific individuals.
Sensitivity, of course. Forcing us all to lie, no.
The particular disruption I'm thinking of is much worse than that, it's not just about language. Unfortunately I can't say more as it's not public knowledge. But of course some other examples have hit the news.
I like her too. I think she can heal a lot of division in the party. Much better than the rest of the field.
She's obviously got cullions, metaphorically, and she thinks quick. She's a liberal centrist but a patriotic Brexiteer. She might, as you say, unify the right
Best of all she is not some billionaire posh bloke. Enough of those, thanks, for now
I also think Starmer would seriously struggle against her. She's sharp
Just to remind you old chap, the "patriotic Brexiteer" can be viewed by some of us as an oxymoron (Putin's preference and all that). If you separate it out, that means oxy for Patriotic and...well you know the rest.
Just to remind you, old chap, the "patriotic Remainers" spent 40 years trying to tie us inextricably into a new foreign country - the EU.
They were just morons.
I imagine that there are a huge number of "Remainers" who have done a lot more for their country than a two braincell fuckwit keyboard warrior like yourself.
As for morons, not all people who voted Brexit are morons. Those that still believe in it (genuinely, not pretend like a lot of MPs) are the real morons. I guess you fit neatly into the latter category. By the way, Father Christmas is not real.
PS. The EU isn't a country you ignorant fuckwit.
Its become one though. Its a nascent one, an evolving federation, like 17th/18th century America or early Australia too.
Its fairly rapidly evolving into one, and the Euro means that is only going to ratchet in one direction.
Stop talking bollox you dimwit. Go back and read your Daily Express.
You're the one talking bollocks. The EU is rapidly evolving and the pressure for it to evolve further is not over.
You're as pig-ignorant as the fools who can't see past what today's opinion poll says and think that change from that is impossible. Evolution is very real and the pressure and precedent is there for EU to evolve into a federal nation.
The EU already has power over almost everything federal nations tend to have power over, apart from defence and central tax-rising powers. EU Defence plans are constantly spoken about and are surely a matter of when, not if. The Euro also means that tax rising plans are surely a matter of when, not if, too.
You're as naive as those who thought in the seventeenth century that the USA's Federal government would only delve into very limited areas. As time goes on the federal state inevitably centralises more and more power, and the EU is following that time-worn precedent as to how federations evolve.
If you think evolution is going to end today, you've got another thing coming.
Change your scratched record. It is not a country. Will it ever be? Not in my lifetime. In future who knows? In the future we might evolve back into apes and they will rule a world government. When I look at some of your posts I sometimes wonder if it hasn't already happened. Now go back to your Express. I am sure they predicted this heatwave didn't they?
Simply awful Yougov poll for Sunak, worse even than the Comhome survey. Not only is he trounced by Mordaunt or Truss in the membership vote he even loses to Tugendhadt or Badenoch. He looks like another Portillo or David Miliband at this point not another Cameron or Blair.
Unless a major change he needs somehow to get Hunt into the last 2
I imagine the race will be down to 4 or even 3 by midnight.
I can see Sunak's support collapsing if momentum builds around the idea he is unelectable. His supporters look like they are in it not because they believe in him but because they thought he would be the winner.
What might be interesting is, if the MPs start to think Sunak is not electable and yet they are concerned about Mordaunt, whom do they pick to go into the runoff? LT or KB?
4 Women 2 of White and Non White 4 Men 2 Non White 2 white
Go find another leadership contest in UK that is as diverse. He is a person who deserves to be spoken of in language that is defamatory. And to have a fox stuffed up his Kimino
And the 2 white men are probably going to be out of the race very soon.
Why did he even delete his first tweet? He obviously wants to just come out and say Tory Members are racists.
Plus he's blocked several commentators from the last incident so should be gentler for him now.
Is he wrong? Older Conservative members may well lean a certain way.
My Grandfather now nearly 90 has some considerably un-twitterable views. Yet a staunch Conservative and from the membership of his local Conservative club not alone.
If I was betting one of my heuristics would be that the white candidates might well benefit from a membership vote.
Probably need to see all the head to heads. If Hunt beat Badenoch, that might suggest quite a big issue with race.
Conservative Home panel: Badenoch loses only to Mordant, beats Shapps 56-24, Hunt 66-21, Tugendhat 58-27.
My father is 87 and as kids we were always taught to take people as they come - race, sex, or sexuality. Even “trans”, and yes even when I was a kid there were one or two around.
He was born in Birkenhead and grew up in working class Gosport and left school at 14 or 15.
As far as I can tell I was very lucky, if one is to believe received opinion pretty much everyone back then was steeped in bigotry.
Why did he even delete his first tweet? He obviously wants to just come out and say Tory Members are racists.
Plus he's blocked several commentators from the last incident so should be gentler for him now.
Is he wrong? Older Conservative members may well lean a certain way.
My Grandfather now nearly 90 has some considerably un-twitterable views. Yet a staunch Conservative and from the membership of his local Conservative club not alone.
If I was betting one of my heuristics would be that the white candidates might well benefit from a membership vote.
Tell him to vote for “That nice lady from the colonies, who talks a bit like Margaret Thatcher”. #TeamKemi
Simply awful Yougov poll for Sunak, worse even than the Comhome survey. Not only is he trounced by Mordaunt or Truss in the membership vote he even loses to Tugendhadt or Badenoch. He looks like another Portillo or David Miliband at this point not another Cameron or Blair.
Unless a major change he needs somehow to get Hunt into the last 2
He's even tied effectively with Braverman and Zahawi. F**king Hell.
I like her too. I think she can heal a lot of division in the party. Much better than the rest of the field.
She's obviously got cullions, metaphorically, and she thinks quick. She's a liberal centrist but a patriotic Brexiteer. She might, as you say, unify the right
Best of all she is not some billionaire posh bloke. Enough of those, thanks, for now
I also think Starmer would seriously struggle against her. She's sharp
Just to remind you old chap, the "patriotic Brexiteer" can be viewed by some of us as an oxymoron (Putin's preference and all that). If you separate it out, that means oxy for Patriotic and...well you know the rest.
Just to remind you, old chap, the "patriotic Remainers" spent 40 years trying to tie us inextricably into a new foreign country - the EU.
They were just morons.
I imagine that there are a huge number of "Remainers" who have done a lot more for their country than a two braincell fuckwit keyboard warrior like yourself.
As for morons, not all people who voted Brexit are morons. Those that still believe in it (genuinely, not pretend like a lot of MPs) are the real morons. I guess you fit neatly into the latter category. By the way, Father Christmas is not real.
PS. The EU isn't a country you ignorant fuckwit.
Its become one though. Its a nascent one, an evolving federation, like 17th/18th century America or early Australia too.
Its fairly rapidly evolving into one, and the Euro means that is only going to ratchet in one direction.
Stop talking bollox you dimwit. Go back and read your Daily Express.
You're the one talking bollocks. The EU is rapidly evolving and the pressure for it to evolve further is not over.
You're as pig-ignorant as the fools who can't see past what today's opinion poll says and think that change from that is impossible. Evolution is very real and the pressure and precedent is there for EU to evolve into a federal nation.
The EU already has power over almost everything federal nations tend to have power over, apart from defence and central tax-rising powers. EU Defence plans are constantly spoken about and are surely a matter of when, not if. The Euro also means that tax rising plans are surely a matter of when, not if, too.
You're as naive as those who thought in the seventeenth century that the USA's Federal government would only delve into very limited areas. As time goes on the federal state inevitably centralises more and more power, and the EU is following that time-worn precedent as to how federations evolve.
If you think evolution is going to end today, you've got another thing coming.
Change your scratched record. It is not a country. Will it ever be? Not in my lifetime. In future who knows? In the future we might evolve back into apes and they will rule a world government. When I look at some of your posts I sometimes wonder if it hasn't already happened. Now go back to your Express. I am sure they predicted this heatwave didn't they?
It virtually is a country already. On almost every metric of what defines a country, it is one, already.
If you're not expecting it to be one in your lifetime, I didn't realise you were that old, I certainly expect it will be a fully fledged one in my lifetime and definitely my children's lifetime. I expect before I'm retired let alone died it will have its own nascent defence forces and tax raising powers, at which point there is no legitimate way to say that it isn't a country anymore.
There's a difference between "despising" (which I think is too strong a word) your opponents, and dismissing them as completely without merit. Thatcher and Blair both won as highly partisan leaders because they were able to put themselves into the minds of a substantial section of those who traditionally didn't vote for them. And see the world through their eyes. So did Boris. For a bit. Not getting the idea any of this 8 do.
Thatcher got a big assist from the temporary suspension of regular two-party politics. I'd put her separate to Blair and Johnson who tried to be many things to many people (and not coincidentally seem to lack a reputation commensurate to their electoral success).
I don't think despising Labour is really a strength. It's very difficult to win over the other side's voters if you are busy despising the party they vote for.
My father is 87 and we were always taught to take people as they come - race, sex, or sexuality. Even “trans”, and yes even when I was a kid there were one or two around.
He was born in Birkenhead and grew up in working class Gosport and left school at 14 or 15.
As far as I can tell I was very lucky, if one is to believe received opinion pretty much everyone back then was steeped in bigotry.
Hmm. Both ports and/or naval bases (certainly Merseyside in WW2).
Simply awful Yougov poll for Sunak, worse even than the Comhome survey. Not only is he trounced by Mordaunt or Truss in the membership vote he even loses to Tugendhadt or Badenoch. He looks like another Portillo or David Miliband at this point not another Cameron or Blair.
Unless a major change he needs somehow to get Hunt into the last 2
I'll like that, but disagree on the David Miliband point. At least he had the guts to knife Boris, David Miliband never did with Brown.
If the Tories can think of nothing more effective to take them into the next GE than trying to fight this particular culture war, I suspect they’ll lose heavily.
At any other time, sure: stirring up a good five minutes hate can be a great campaign strategy. But going into the worst cost of living crisis in a generation? Are ordinary people worrying about where their next meal is going to come from really going to be impressed by this kind of “Look, a squirrel!” campaigning?
Maybe I‘m wrong & going full throttle on this stuff will turn out to be a great distraction from the electorate’s concerns about whether Granny is going to be able to afford to heat her home in the coming winter.
It's not a culture-war thing, it's a sanity thing. Who wants to vote for someone so out with the fairies that they think, or more likely pretend to think, that men can get pregnant? It infests everything else they say, especially when they try to evade the question.
Also, it is causing enormous practical problems. The NHS is being disrupted because they are terrified of falling foul of the trans lobby.
On the list of NHS disruptions, this has to down somewhere below whether they’ve got enough toilet roll for the week I suspect. Come on.
Again, as I said the first time: people might well get riled up about this stuff under other circumstances, but right now? I just don’t see it. I think it’s going to be seen as a massive distraction from the issues that people actually care about, regardless of their personal beliefs on the topic.
I could be wrong of course: time will tell!
I have become a lot more alarmed by woke since visiting secondary schools for my daughter. Woke is universal. I've no qualms with treating issues of sexuality sensitively, but a good 40% of the material on the walls of the corridors is about gender and sexuality. I don't think you'd find many people to disagree with the line that it's ok to be gay. I don't think anyone wants a return to the days when gay kids felt constantly uncomfortable and feared people discovering their true sexuality. But honestly, scale it appropriately. It's not healthy to be constantly bombarding kids - many of whom won't yet be sexually attracted to anyone - with messages that they have to pick now from a range of sexualities and genders. It's honestly not the right banging on about trans (alright, sometimes it is); more usually it is simply the mainstream suggesting the left banging on about trans has gone a bit daft.
Simply awful Yougov poll for Sunak, worse even than the Comhome survey. Not only is he trounced by Mordaunt or Truss in the membership vote he even loses to Tugendhadt or Badenoch. He looks like another Portillo or David Miliband at this point not another Cameron or Blair.
Unless a major change he needs somehow to get Hunt into the last 2
My father is 87 and we were always taught to take people as they come - race, sex, or sexuality. Even “trans”, and yes even when I was a kid there were one or two around.
He was born in Birkenhead and grew up in working class Gosport and left school at 14 or 15.
As far as I can tell I was very lucky, if one is to believe received opinion pretty much everyone back then was steeped in bigotry.
Hmm. Both ports and/or naval bases (certainly Merseyside in WW2).
I imagine the race will be down to 4 or even 3 by midnight.
I can see Sunak's support collapsing if momentum builds around the idea he is unelectable. His supporters look like they are in it not because they believe in him but because they thought he would be the winner.
What might be interesting is, if the MPs start to think Sunak is not electable and yet they are concerned about Mordaunt, whom do they pick to go into the runoff? LT or KB?
Penny benefits most from a Sunak collapse I think precisely for the reason that I can’t see there are many who would naturally fit into a “Sunak not electable BUT concerned about Mordaunt” group.
To the extent that there are a number who think that way, I guess they’d go to Truss because she has high-level government experience.
My father is 87 and we were always taught to take people as they come - race, sex, or sexuality. Even “trans”, and yes even when I was a kid there were one or two around.
He was born in Birkenhead and grew up in working class Gosport and left school at 14 or 15.
As far as I can tell I was very lucky, if one is to believe received opinion pretty much everyone back then was steeped in bigotry.
At 87 he's a remarkable man if he has no prejudice that we might spot today. Of course he's also a remarkable for for allowing his son to wander aimlessly around the vegetable patch
Cool. What an interesting rocket. Looks like it did what it was supposed to.
Why are they talking in gibberish?
They're French?
Is it? Or is it Swahili? Sounds like someone gargling. They should stop it. Talk fucking English like a normal person. Talking a babbled foreign dialect in a serious moment or in some professional capacity is a ridiculous affectation, like me doing my driving test in mime
You seem to be in a particularly good mood today! A particularly fine wine and sunset combination?
I'm stone cold sober and it's only 3pm. However I do think six days of living right by the sea - it's literally 2 metres away from my bed and my living room - has energised me. All that ozone!
I sun and swim every day, that's it. Most pleasant. I have to return to Blighty this week but I a minded to come back to Montenegro v soon
My brother told me this morning he is heading to Tbilisi next month. What is you topper-most tip?
Do all the obvious things. Eat khinkali, explore the old town (endlessly), do the cable car, see the churches, drink Georgian wine in some of the cool bars, check the flea market, have lunch by the river, it’s a really wonderful city
But for a more unusual tip, visit Stalin’s Secret Underground Printing Lair, in the burbs. Crazy and eccentric but fascinating
Simply awful Yougov poll for Sunak, worse even than the Comhome survey. Not only is he trounced by Mordaunt or Truss in the membership vote he even loses to Tugendhadt or Badenoch. He looks like another Portillo or David Miliband at this point not another Cameron or Blair.
Unless a major change he needs somehow to get Hunt into the last 2
Hunt won't be in the race for much longer.
Will there even be a race for much longer?
The way Sky are speaking, you'd expect Penny to be PM by the end of the week, by acclamation.
My father is 87 and we were always taught to take people as they come - race, sex, or sexuality. Even “trans”, and yes even when I was a kid there were one or two around.
He was born in Birkenhead and grew up in working class Gosport and left school at 14 or 15.
As far as I can tell I was very lucky, if one is to believe received opinion pretty much everyone back then was steeped in bigotry.
I don't think everyone was steeped in bigotry, though certainly a lot of it about. From as soon as there were black populations here there have been inter-racial relationships. My folks are in their late Eighties, and my in Laws would have been. I don’t recall any of them making a racist statement or slur. My dad is really quite homophobic though.
JESUS. I just solved basically every problem in the West
Childless people should be taxed. Heavily
That solves the demographic issue - bingo. It also brings in a ton of money for HMG. Bringing down debt and deficit
SORTED
The French do something similar, in effect. You get tax breaks for having children. It's unusual in the west in the high birth rates among middle class people.
Yes but we need to get punitive. This is a demographic crisis. Your duty is to have kids. End of
I SUPPOSE we can make exceptions for people without wombs etc, but other than that: slam them with harsh taxes, maybe even deny them normal human rights. Stop them joining choirs. Let them into larger cities only between 3-5pm. Why do they need to move around anyway if they don’t have kids?
I'll admit that on a pretty meagre income I can live a 'decent' life in large part because I don't have a family to support. You have to be careful though. Some people are frankly not suited to being parents. The major problem as I see it is that if we know that some people won't have children and very few have more than two, then fertility rates are going to be below replacement level.
The extortionate cost of housing for Gen Y/Z is the obvious problem.
As someone recently married, and with the kids question looming, the financials are scary. Currently we're blessed by being very well off - probably ~£50kpa income between us after tax, we've two houses, both half paid off. If we sold one, we'd probably have £100k left after paying the other mortgage off. If we have a couple of kids, my wife will probably give up work at least for a while, we ideally need a bigger house, which probably means selling the remaining house for around £160k and spending £300-£400k (bigger ex-council houses aren't really a thing, and anything that isn't ex-council is a big step up in price).
It's quite possible we'll end up with two kids, a £100k mortgage, and £25kpa post tax income, which is OK, but rather a change from the present situation where we literally can't spend money as fast as we're earning it.
On the housing madness, I had some estate agents out to look at my wife's house in North Somerset on Monday. She bought in 2017 for £202.5k - all three agents thought we should get £250-260k - I.E. it's gained £10k in value a year. If we let it out, we should expect ~£900pcm.
The whole situation seems both mad and unsustainable.
When I had two children under three, on any given day I was going to work I was earning less than I was paying in childcare. It wasn't even a job I particularly enjoyed. I was basically going to work in order that a job would continue to exist for me at some later date when childcare costs lowered.
We got through it though, and free childcare kicks in slightly earlier nowadays. It's scary, and there might be some lifestyle adjustments, but you won't have time to be out spending so much money anyway.
It will however be more worthwhile than I can possibly explain to someone without kids or even to my younger self.
Oh, don't worry - kids are worthwhile enough for us to go for it despite the relative financial hardship - we'll manage somehow. My point was more about the mad state of a country where family sized housing is virtually unaffordable, where a modest 2 bed terrace makes half the annual income of its occupant by price inflation alone, and where the whole system being based on having two full-time incomes to support the house price inflation, despite that then requiring the kids to be dumped into childcare. I'll be strongly encouraging my wife not to go back to work, certainly not full time, as long as we've got kids below secondary school age - I firmly believe that's much better all round (particularly for the kids) than chucking loads of money at childcare so you can keep on earning.
Labour MP calling for tougher prison sentences for a range of crimes.
Its standard. MPs think that fixes everything.
I did wonder whether Braverman or Patel would pull out the 'bring back hanging' option.
There isn't much that they can do on prison sentences, because they've passed lots of legislation to make them longer and creating lots of new imprisonable offences but now seem to have run out of obvious options. Doing this was a very short sighted policy in my view, it satisfies popular demands but forces future governments to pay the cost (of housing the prisoners).
One thing they could do is bring more honesty to sentencing. Get rid of the system of early release after serving half your sentence. If you want to compensate for that then reduce the length of the sentence in the first place. Let that be the political battlefield. But people get heartily fed up of being told someone is sentenced to a set period but will only serve half of it. It makes sentencing meaningless.
I am not necessarily even advocating people spend longer in jail - just that they do serve the time they are sentenced to. I seems a far more honesty way to do things for everyone.
Simply awful Yougov poll for Sunak, worse even than the Comhome survey. Not only is he trounced by Mordaunt or Truss in the membership vote he even loses to Tugendhadt or Badenoch. He looks like another Portillo or David Miliband at this point not another Cameron or Blair.
Unless a major change he needs somehow to get Hunt into the last 2
I imagine the race will be down to 4 or even 3 by midnight.
I can see Sunak's support collapsing if momentum builds around the idea he is unelectable. His supporters look like they are in it not because they believe in him but because they thought he would be the winner.
What might be interesting is, if the MPs start to think Sunak is not electable and yet they are concerned about Mordaunt, whom do they pick to go into the runoff? LT or KB?
Penny benefits most from a Sunak collapse I think precisely for the reason that I can’t see there are many who would naturally fit into a “Sunak not electable BUT concerned about Mordaunt” group.
To the extent that there are a number who think that way, I guess they’d go to Truss because she has high-level government experience.
Truss needs Sunak to hold his support up as much as possible !
I like her too. I think she can heal a lot of division in the party. Much better than the rest of the field.
She's obviously got cullions, metaphorically, and she thinks quick. She's a liberal centrist but a patriotic Brexiteer. She might, as you say, unify the right
Best of all she is not some billionaire posh bloke. Enough of those, thanks, for now
I also think Starmer would seriously struggle against her. She's sharp
Just to remind you old chap, the "patriotic Brexiteer" can be viewed by some of us as an oxymoron (Putin's preference and all that). If you separate it out, that means oxy for Patriotic and...well you know the rest.
Just to remind you, old chap, the "patriotic Remainers" spent 40 years trying to tie us inextricably into a new foreign country - the EU.
They were just morons.
I imagine that there are a huge number of "Remainers" who have done a lot more for their country than a two braincell fuckwit keyboard warrior like yourself.
As for morons, not all people who voted Brexit are morons. Those that still believe in it (genuinely, not pretend like a lot of MPs) are the real morons. I guess you fit neatly into the latter category. By the way, Father Christmas is not real.
PS. The EU isn't a country you ignorant fuckwit.
Its become one though. Its a nascent one, an evolving federation, like 17th/18th century America or early Australia too.
Its fairly rapidly evolving into one, and the Euro means that is only going to ratchet in one direction.
Stop talking bollox you dimwit. Go back and read your Daily Express.
You're the one talking bollocks. The EU is rapidly evolving and the pressure for it to evolve further is not over.
You're as pig-ignorant as the fools who can't see past what today's opinion poll says and think that change from that is impossible. Evolution is very real and the pressure and precedent is there for EU to evolve into a federal nation.
The EU already has power over almost everything federal nations tend to have power over, apart from defence and central tax-rising powers. EU Defence plans are constantly spoken about and are surely a matter of when, not if. The Euro also means that tax rising plans are surely a matter of when, not if, too.
You're as naive as those who thought in the seventeenth century that the USA's Federal government would only delve into very limited areas. As time goes on the federal state inevitably centralises more and more power, and the EU is following that time-worn precedent as to how federations evolve.
If you think evolution is going to end today, you've got another thing coming.
Change your scratched record. It is not a country. Will it ever be? Not in my lifetime. In future who knows? In the future we might evolve back into apes and they will rule a world government. When I look at some of your posts I sometimes wonder if it hasn't already happened. Now go back to your Express. I am sure they predicted this heatwave didn't they?
It virtually is a country already. On almost every metric of what defines a country, it is one, already.
If you're not expecting it to be one in your lifetime, I didn't realise you were that old, I certainly expect it will be a fully fledged one in my lifetime and definitely my children's lifetime. I expect before I'm retired let alone died it will have its own nascent defence forces and tax raising powers, at which point there is no legitimate way to say that it isn't a country anymore.
Lol. You are officially a weirdo. I guess I should be sympathetic as you are still in mourning over the defenestration of your idol whom you once described as the greatest PM in your lifetime (or was it ever?). You are a man of little brain and judgement. Have a lovely day. Bad luck on your Sunak bet btw. He is almost as shit as Johnson, but I guess you can't tell these sort of things.
Why did he even delete his first tweet? He obviously wants to just come out and say Tory Members are racists.
Plus he's blocked several commentators from the last incident so should be gentler for him now.
Is he wrong? Older Conservative members may well lean a certain way.
My Grandfather now nearly 90 has some considerably un-twitterable views. Yet a staunch Conservative and from the membership of his local Conservative club not alone.
If I was betting one of my heuristics would be that the white candidates might well benefit from a membership vote.
Tell him to vote for “That nice lady from the colonies, who talks a bit like Margaret Thatcher”. #TeamKemi
We do tend to avoid politics...
He would be and is pleasant to anyone. A superb and prescient farmer in his day but now steeped in news+comment from the declining Telegraph and presently GB News.
Simply awful Yougov poll for Sunak, worse even than the Comhome survey. Not only is he trounced by Mordaunt or Truss in the membership vote he even loses to Tugendhadt or Badenoch. He looks like another Portillo or David Miliband at this point not another Cameron or Blair.
Unless a major change he needs somehow to get Hunt into the last 2
Hunt won't be in the race for much longer.
Will there even be a race for much longer?
The way Sky are speaking, you'd expect Penny to be PM by the end of the week, by acclamation.
Boris mentioned it too so presumably Number 10 is preparing for a swift handover.
My father is 87 and as kids we were always taught to take people as they come - race, sex, or sexuality. Even “trans”, and yes even when I was a kid there were one or two around.
He was born in Birkenhead and grew up in working class Gosport and left school at 14 or 15.
As far as I can tell I was very lucky, if one is to believe received opinion pretty much everyone back then was steeped in bigotry.
My grandmother was born in 1914. She was very small c conservative - I think she was a Christian Scientist - but she was also, once you got to spot it, tremendously accepting of people who did not conform. Only you didn't find out about it, because 'acceptance' in those days meant accepting them for who they were and not really going on about it, and also respecting their privacy. It was probably more easy to be accepting if you knew one or two people who were gay. I'm sure there was a lot of bigotry around, and perhaps a lot of that was because there were no publicly gay people; so most people didn't know - or didn't know they knew - anyone gay.
On the list of NHS disruptions, this has to down somewhere below whether they’ve got enough toilet roll for the week I suspect.
You suspect wrong.
Can you actually explain why, or are you simply going to loftily assert that this is a massive issue for the NHS & leave the rest of us to take you at your word?
I imagine the race will be down to 4 or even 3 by midnight.
I can see Sunak's support collapsing if momentum builds around the idea he is unelectable. His supporters look like they are in it not because they believe in him but because they thought he would be the winner.
What might be interesting is, if the MPs start to think Sunak is not electable and yet they are concerned about Mordaunt, whom do they pick to go into the runoff? LT or KB?
Penny benefits most from a Sunak collapse I think precisely for the reason that I can’t see there are many who would naturally fit into a “Sunak not electable BUT concerned about Mordaunt” group.
To the extent that there are a number who think that way, I guess they’d go to Truss because she has high-level government experience.
Truss needs Sunak to hold his support up as much as possible !
Agreed. Cleanest path for Truss is squeezing Mordaunt out in the final MP round and setting up a contest with Rishi.
For that reason she needs Rishi to stay strong. If Penny becomes frontrunner a lot of the Rishi support (which I suspect is fairly soft and based on the fact he WAS the frontrunner) will go to Penny. That potentially sets up Penny vs Truss which won’t be a great matchup for Liz.
I imagine the race will be down to 4 or even 3 by midnight.
I can see Sunak's support collapsing if momentum builds around the idea he is unelectable. His supporters look like they are in it not because they believe in him but because they thought he would be the winner.
What might be interesting is, if the MPs start to think Sunak is not electable and yet they are concerned about Mordaunt, whom do they pick to go into the runoff? LT or KB?
It does feel a bit snowbally, in that he might do ok with members but now people have heard he us toxic the Mps will get nervous,, he does less well than expected, and that reinforces the idea with members hes bad.
But leaders have to overcome this sort of thing. If he cannot, well, it speaks for itself.
Cool. What an interesting rocket. Looks like it did what it was supposed to.
Why are they talking in gibberish?
They're French?
Is it? Or is it Swahili? Sounds like someone gargling. They should stop it. Talk fucking English like a normal person. Talking a babbled foreign dialect in a serious moment or in some professional capacity is a ridiculous affectation, like me doing my driving test in mime
You seem to be in a particularly good mood today! A particularly fine wine and sunset combination?
I'm stone cold sober and it's only 3pm. However I do think six days of living right by the sea - it's literally 2 metres away from my bed and my living room - has energised me. All that ozone!
I sun and swim every day, that's it. Most pleasant. I have to return to Blighty this week but I a minded to come back to Montenegro v soon
My brother told me this morning he is heading to Tbilisi next month. What is you topper-most tip?
Do all the obvious things. Eat khinkali, explore the old town (endlessly), do the cable car, see the churches, drink Georgian wine in some of the cool bars, check the flea market, have lunch by the river, it’s a really wonderful city
But for a more unusual tip, visit Stalin’s Secret Underground Printing Lair, in the burbs. Crazy and eccentric but fascinating
Thanks, I have passed on to him.
The lucky bleeder, he is single and appears to get about 8 weeks holiday a year…
4.33 for Sunak at this stage is remarkable. I suppose the market just doesn't think he beats whoever he comes up against in the member ballot. How reliable do we think the polls on this are? I see no reason for them to be too far out, but there is also a lot of scope between now and the members' ballot for people to change their minds and my guess is a lot of minds aren't firmly made up.
Simply awful Yougov poll for Sunak, worse even than the Comhome survey. Not only is he trounced by Mordaunt or Truss in the membership vote he even loses to Tugendhadt or Badenoch. He looks like another Portillo or David Miliband at this point not another Cameron or Blair.
Unless a major change he needs somehow to get Hunt into the last 2
Hunt won't be in the race for much longer.
Will there even be a race for much longer?
The way Sky are speaking, you'd expect Penny to be PM by the end of the week, by acclamation.
All 8 candidates agreed with the 1922 that no one would drop out of the final two.
Of course, they might break a promise, being politicians and all.
My father is 87 and we were always taught to take people as they come - race, sex, or sexuality. Even “trans”, and yes even when I was a kid there were one or two around.
He was born in Birkenhead and grew up in working class Gosport and left school at 14 or 15.
As far as I can tell I was very lucky, if one is to believe received opinion pretty much everyone back then was steeped in bigotry.
I don't think everyone was steeped in bigotry, though certainly a lot of it about. From as soon as there were black populations here there have been inter-racial relationships. My folks are in their late Eighties, and my in Laws would have been. I don’t recall any of them making a racist statement or slur. My dad is really quite homophobic though.
My father was a self made man. The Son of a Welsh church mouse poor coal miner, who never forgot or forgave that. He was Labour 'til he died. I suspect in the darkest recesses of his mind there were some racial issues, but certainly off the scale homophobic.
Tugendhat and Hunt are (probably) fishing in the same pool so it might depend on distribution. Likewise Badenoch and Braverman but Kemi should be safe.
4.33 for Sunak at this stage is remarkable. I suppose the market just doesn't think he beats whoever he comes up against in the member ballot. How reliable do we think the polls on this are? I see no reason for them to be too far out, but there is also a lot of scope between now and the members' ballot for people to change their minds and my guess is a lot of minds aren't firmly made up.
Labour MP calling for tougher prison sentences for a range of crimes.
Its standard. MPs think that fixes everything.
I did wonder whether Braverman or Patel would pull out the 'bring back hanging' option.
There isn't much that they can do on prison sentences, because they've passed lots of legislation to make them longer and creating lots of new imprisonable offences but now seem to have run out of obvious options. Doing this was a very short sighted policy in my view, it satisfies popular demands but forces future governments to pay the cost (of housing the prisoners).
One thing they could do is bring more honesty to sentencing. Get rid of the system of early release after serving half your sentence. If you want to compensate for that then reduce the length of the sentence in the first place. Let that be the political battlefield. But people get heartily fed up of being told someone is sentenced to a set period but will only serve half of it. It makes sentencing meaningless.
I am not necessarily even advocating people spend longer in jail - just that they do serve the time they are sentenced to. I seems a far more honesty way to do things for everyone.
Even before that - they could try and spend some money on the justice side of the legal criminal system so court cases are heard within a sane period of time. And by a sane period of time I mean 12 months from the offence occurring and not the 2 years plus that is currently very common.
My father is 87 and as kids we were always taught to take people as they come - race, sex, or sexuality. Even “trans”, and yes even when I was a kid there were one or two around.
He was born in Birkenhead and grew up in working class Gosport and left school at 14 or 15.
As far as I can tell I was very lucky, if one is to believe received opinion pretty much everyone back then was steeped in bigotry.
My grandmother was born in 1914. She was very small c conservative - I think she was a Christian Scientist - but she was also, once you got to spot it, tremendously accepting of people who did not conform. Only you didn't find out about it, because 'acceptance' in those days meant accepting them for who they were and not really going on about it, and also respecting their privacy. It was probably more easy to be accepting if you knew one or two people who were gay. I'm sure there was a lot of bigotry around, and perhaps a lot of that was because there were no publicly gay people; so most people didn't know - or didn't know they knew - anyone gay.
Yes, to some extent. My father never sat us down and said “let’s celebrate pride month” (not that it existed or course).
However we were frequently instructed that everyone deserves respect and that people’s personal lives were entirely their own business.
Bad news for Hunt. Maybe the deal with Esther McVey wasn't such a good idea.
"Kate Ferguson @kateferguson4 Hearing that Jeremy Hunt vote has collapsed and that he is privately conceding. Cannot know this for sure as it’s a secret ballot… but have been told that 3:03 PM · Jul 13, 2022·Twitter for iPhone"
There is also the slight curiosity of Starmer going for Sunak at PMQs today.
What was the purpose of that? Was it to try and nix his chances on the basis that they are concerned about him? Or was it because Labour assume he is going to win and they are getting the attack lines in early?
To me the latter seems most likely but if that’s right it strikes me as a misreading of the situation. It may however had the unintended consequence of putting some Tory MPs off?
On the list of NHS disruptions, this has to down somewhere below whether they’ve got enough toilet roll for the week I suspect.
You suspect wrong.
Can you actually explain why, or are you simply going to loftily assert that this is a massive issue for the NHS & leave the rest of us to take you at your word?
The latter, I'm afraid. As it is confidential and quite sensitive, you'll have to take my word for it, and, if you have any sense, you will.
4.33 for Sunak at this stage is remarkable. I suppose the market just doesn't think he beats whoever he comes up against in the member ballot. How reliable do we think the polls on this are? I see no reason for them to be too far out, but there is also a lot of scope between now and the members' ballot for people to change their minds and my guess is a lot of minds aren't firmly made up.
Any price needs to be based on both MPs and members.
Both Truss and Mordaunt are 1-10 shots vs Sunak, the members won't change their minds THAT much. It won't be by acclamation now - which is his only hope.
Simply awful Yougov poll for Sunak, worse even than the Comhome survey. Not only is he trounced by Mordaunt or Truss in the membership vote he even loses to Tugendhadt or Badenoch. He looks like another Portillo or David Miliband at this point not another Cameron or Blair.
Unless a major change he needs somehow to get Hunt into the last 2
Hunt won't be in the race for much longer.
Will there even be a race for much longer?
The way Sky are speaking, you'd expect Penny to be PM by the end of the week, by acclamation.
All 8 candidates agreed with the 1922 that no one would drop out of the final two.
Of course, they might break a promise, being politicians and all.
Though thinking about it, that doesn't exclude 7 withdrawing before the round of 2 is decided.
Bad news for Hunt. Maybe the deal with Esther McVey wasn't such a good idea.
"Kate Ferguson @kateferguson4 Hearing that Jeremy Hunt vote has collapsed and that he is privately conceding. Cannot know this for sure as it’s a secret ballot… but have been told that 3:03 PM · Jul 13, 2022·Twitter for iPhone"
I think the McVey deal was a curious move but I think more crucially Jeremy Hunt comes across as yesterdays man and wasn’t able to play a convincing king over the water.
I hope he does join the government again though, under the new leader.
Cool. What an interesting rocket. Looks like it did what it was supposed to.
Why are they talking in gibberish?
They're French?
Is it? Or is it Swahili? Sounds like someone gargling. They should stop it. Talk fucking English like a normal person. Talking a babbled foreign dialect in a serious moment or in some professional capacity is a ridiculous affectation, like me doing my driving test in mime
You seem to be in a particularly good mood today! A particularly fine wine and sunset combination?
I'm stone cold sober and it's only 3pm. However I do think six days of living right by the sea - it's literally 2 metres away from my bed and my living room - has energised me. All that ozone!
I sun and swim every day, that's it. Most pleasant. I have to return to Blighty this week but I a minded to come back to Montenegro v soon
My brother told me this morning he is heading to Tbilisi next month. What is you topper-most tip?
Do all the obvious things. Eat khinkali, explore the old town (endlessly), do the cable car, see the churches, drink Georgian wine in some of the cool bars, check the flea market, have lunch by the river, it’s a really wonderful city
But for a more unusual tip, visit Stalin’s Secret Underground Printing Lair, in the burbs. Crazy and eccentric but fascinating
Do walk up/down from the castle at least once, don't take the cable car both ways. Then you can drink wine bought from some random old bloke served out of a plastic pop bottle at about a lari a pop. (I agree about the cool bars, by the way, although I don't think the one I frequented the most, Amber, is still there).
Go to Abanotubani and have a sulphur bath.
Take a minibus trip out of town and visit Gori, the Stalin birthplace museum. Has even greater relevance today.
4.33 for Sunak at this stage is remarkable. I suppose the market just doesn't think he beats whoever he comes up against in the member ballot. How reliable do we think the polls on this are? I see no reason for them to be too far out, but there is also a lot of scope between now and the members' ballot for people to change their minds and my guess is a lot of minds aren't firmly made up.
Any price needs to be based on both MPs and members.
Both Truss and Mordaunt are 1-10 shots vs Sunak, the members won't change their minds THAT much. It won't be by acclamation now - which is his only hope.
Cool. What an interesting rocket. Looks like it did what it was supposed to.
Why are they talking in gibberish?
They're French?
Is it? Or is it Swahili? Sounds like someone gargling. They should stop it. Talk fucking English like a normal person. Talking a babbled foreign dialect in a serious moment or in some professional capacity is a ridiculous affectation, like me doing my driving test in mime
You seem to be in a particularly good mood today! A particularly fine wine and sunset combination?
I'm stone cold sober and it's only 3pm. However I do think six days of living right by the sea - it's literally 2 metres away from my bed and my living room - has energised me. All that ozone!
I sun and swim every day, that's it. Most pleasant. I have to return to Blighty this week but I a minded to come back to Montenegro v soon
My brother told me this morning he is heading to Tbilisi next month. What is you topper-most tip?
Do all the obvious things. Eat khinkali, explore the old town (endlessly), do the cable car, see the churches, drink Georgian wine in some of the cool bars, check the flea market, have lunch by the river, it’s a really wonderful city
But for a more unusual tip, visit Stalin’s Secret Underground Printing Lair, in the burbs. Crazy and eccentric but fascinating
Do walk up/down from the castle at least once, don't take the cable car both ways. Then you can drink wine bought from some random old bloke served out of a plastic pop bottle at about a lari a pop. (I agree about the cool bars, by the way, although I don't think the one I frequented the most, Amber, is still there).
Go to Abanotubani and have a sulphur bath.
Take a minibus trip out of town and visit Gori, the Stalin birthplace museum. Has even greater relevance today.
Agreed. Gori is fantastically weird and interesting
4.33 for Sunak at this stage is remarkable. I suppose the market just doesn't think he beats whoever he comes up against in the member ballot. How reliable do we think the polls on this are? I see no reason for them to be too far out, but there is also a lot of scope between now and the members' ballot for people to change their minds and my guess is a lot of minds aren't firmly made up.
He’s in danger of being overtaken by Truss
Ahem. Me, some few weeks back, on here. Before Boris was even at risk of a further putsch, before Pincher got all handsy:
"the final two will be Mordaunt v Truss, which Mordaunt will win...."
Simply awful Yougov poll for Sunak, worse even than the Comhome survey. Not only is he trounced by Mordaunt or Truss in the membership vote he even loses to Tugendhadt or Badenoch. He looks like another Portillo or David Miliband at this point not another Cameron or Blair.
Unless a major change he needs somehow to get Hunt into the last 2
Hunt won't be in the race for much longer.
Will there even be a race for much longer?
The way Sky are speaking, you'd expect Penny to be PM by the end of the week, by acclamation.
All 8 candidates agreed with the 1922 that no one would drop out of the final two.
Of course, they might break a promise, being politicians and all.
Are there not some televised debates over the weekend?
If you’re a candidate like Badenoch or Tugendhat and you’re still in the game, you might quite fancy hanging around for those to build your profile a little more…
If Hunt goes where do his MPs go? A few to Sunak surely but many will be wanting to stop Truss and Badenoch reaching the last two, so Mordaunt
This is maybe how she wins. She is the stop everyone else candidate, who is herself widely acceptable
They go to Tugendhat if he's still in the race.
Really? What’s the point? He can’t win
It depends on how well Tugendhat does in this round. Tugendhat is the reason Hunt has done so badly — they're both the same type of candidate going for the same voters.
4.33 for Sunak at this stage is remarkable. I suppose the market just doesn't think he beats whoever he comes up against in the member ballot. How reliable do we think the polls on this are? I see no reason for them to be too far out, but there is also a lot of scope between now and the members' ballot for people to change their minds and my guess is a lot of minds aren't firmly made up.
He’s in danger of being overtaken by Truss
Ahem. Me, some few weeks back, on here. Before Boris was even at risk of a further putsch, before Pincher got all handsy:
"the final two will be Mordaunt v Truss, which Mordaunt will win...."
Fair play. If that verifies it’s a brilliant prediction!
Lithuania would do best to ignore the EU (who in the EU?) and carry on. The EU clearly needs a mechanism whereby certain rules may be suspended in a security crisis.
If Hunt goes where do his MPs go? A few to Sunak surely but many will be wanting to stop Truss and Badenoch reaching the last two, so Mordaunt
This is maybe how she wins. She is the stop everyone else candidate, who is herself widely acceptable
They go to Tugendhat if he's still in the race.
Really? What’s the point? He can’t win
It depends on how well Tugendhat does in this round. Tugendhat is the reason Hunt has done so badly — they're both the same type of candidate going for the same voters.
And they probably don’t have 60 votes between them.
JESUS. I just solved basically every problem in the West
Childless people should be taxed. Heavily
That solves the demographic issue - bingo. It also brings in a ton of money for HMG. Bringing down debt and deficit
SORTED
The French do something similar, in effect. You get tax breaks for having children. It's unusual in the west in the high birth rates among middle class people.
Yes but we need to get punitive. This is a demographic crisis. Your duty is to have kids. End of
I SUPPOSE we can make exceptions for people without wombs etc, but other than that: slam them with harsh taxes, maybe even deny them normal human rights. Stop them joining choirs. Let them into larger cities only between 3-5pm. Why do they need to move around anyway if they don’t have kids?
I'll admit that on a pretty meagre income I can live a 'decent' life in large part because I don't have a family to support. You have to be careful though. Some people are frankly not suited to being parents. The major problem as I see it is that if we know that some people won't have children and very few have more than two, then fertility rates are going to be below replacement level.
The extortionate cost of housing for Gen Y/Z is the obvious problem.
As someone recently married, and with the kids question looming, the financials are scary. Currently we're blessed by being very well off - probably ~£50kpa income between us after tax, we've two houses, both half paid off. If we sold one, we'd probably have £100k left after paying the other mortgage off. If we have a couple of kids, my wife will probably give up work at least for a while, we ideally need a bigger house, which probably means selling the remaining house for around £160k and spending £300-£400k (bigger ex-council houses aren't really a thing, and anything that isn't ex-council is a big step up in price).
It's quite possible we'll end up with two kids, a £100k mortgage, and £25kpa post tax income, which is OK, but rather a change from the present situation where we literally can't spend money as fast as we're earning it.
On the housing madness, I had some estate agents out to look at my wife's house in North Somerset on Monday. She bought in 2017 for £202.5k - all three agents thought we should get £250-260k - I.E. it's gained £10k in value a year. If we let it out, we should expect ~£900pcm.
The whole situation seems both mad and unsustainable.
It all seems impossible, but it somehow works out.
I don't think you need to go down to one income for very long. There is good tax breaks for childcare, and 1x person can earn about £10k almost tax free.
The other thing I see getting older, is that people without children often sink in to serious depression in their 40's and onwards.
4.33 for Sunak at this stage is remarkable. I suppose the market just doesn't think he beats whoever he comes up against in the member ballot. How reliable do we think the polls on this are? I see no reason for them to be too far out, but there is also a lot of scope between now and the members' ballot for people to change their minds and my guess is a lot of minds aren't firmly made up.
Any price needs to be based on both MPs and members.
Both Truss and Mordaunt are 1-10 shots vs Sunak, the members won't change their minds THAT much. It won't be by acclamation now - which is his only hope.
You think it is 1/10 that Mordaunt or Truss don't get through the next week intact only to have such a shocker as the only candidate against Sunak that it changes things around? There are a lot of DKs and match up polling where the lead candidate is on around 50 at the moment.
Sunak is a clear second best against most likely opponents, but I'd think of those opponents as more 1/4ish than 1/10 shots.
Comments
We could come and go as we pleased, we could stay anywhere within 28 states for more than 90 days, hell, we could even live there with virtually no constraints. We owned the Eiffel Tower, we owned the Coliseum, the Parthenon, Prague and the Costa del Sol. These treasures belonged to us as much as they did the French, the Italians, the Greeks, the Czechs and the Spanish, and now they don't.
You're as pig-ignorant as the fools who can't see past what today's opinion poll says and think that change from that is impossible. Evolution is very real and the pressure and precedent is there for EU to evolve into a federal nation.
The EU already has power over almost everything federal nations tend to have power over, apart from defence and central tax-rising powers. EU Defence plans are constantly spoken about and are surely a matter of when, not if. The Euro also means that tax rising plans are surely a matter of when, not if, too.
You're as naive as those who thought in the seventeenth century that the USA's Federal government would only delve into very limited areas. As time goes on the federal state inevitably centralises more and more power, and the EU is following that time-worn precedent as to how federations evolve.
If you think evolution is going to end today, you've got another thing coming.
I imagine the race will be down to 4 or even 3 by midnight.
Again, as I said the first time: people might well get riled up about this stuff under other circumstances, but right now? I just don’t see it. I think it’s going to be seen as a massive distraction from the issues that people actually care about, regardless of their personal beliefs on the topic.
I could be wrong of course: time will tell!
4 Women 2 of White and Non White
4 Men 2 Non White 2 white
Go find another leadership contest in UK that is as diverse.
He is a person who deserves to be spoken of in language that is defamatory.
And to have a fox stuffed up his Kimino
The particular disruption I'm thinking of is much worse than that, it's not just about language. Unfortunately I can't say more as it's not public knowledge. But of course some other examples have hit the news.
Unless a major change he needs somehow to get Hunt into the last 2
What might be interesting is, if the MPs start to think Sunak is not electable and yet they are concerned about Mordaunt, whom do they pick to go into the runoff? LT or KB?
He was born in Birkenhead and grew up in working class Gosport and left school at 14 or 15.
As far as I can tell I was very lucky, if one is to believe received opinion pretty much everyone back then was steeped in bigotry.
If you're not expecting it to be one in your lifetime, I didn't realise you were that old, I certainly expect it will be a fully fledged one in my lifetime and definitely my children's lifetime. I expect before I'm retired let alone died it will have its own nascent defence forces and tax raising powers, at which point there is no legitimate way to say that it isn't a country anymore.
When do we get the first Stop Penny moves?
5:01 I guess.
Woke is universal. I've no qualms with treating issues of sexuality sensitively, but a good 40% of the material on the walls of the corridors is about gender and sexuality.
I don't think you'd find many people to disagree with the line that it's ok to be gay. I don't think anyone wants a return to the days when gay kids felt constantly uncomfortable and feared people discovering their true sexuality.
But honestly, scale it appropriately. It's not healthy to be constantly bombarding kids - many of whom won't yet be sexually attracted to anyone - with messages that they have to pick now from a range of sexualities and genders.
It's honestly not the right banging on about trans (alright, sometimes it is); more usually it is simply the mainstream suggesting the left banging on about trans has gone a bit daft.
To the extent that there are a number who think that way, I guess they’d go to Truss because she has high-level government experience.
But for a more unusual tip, visit Stalin’s Secret Underground Printing Lair, in the burbs. Crazy and eccentric but fascinating
The way Sky are speaking, you'd expect Penny to be PM by the end of the week, by acclamation.
My point was more about the mad state of a country where family sized housing is virtually unaffordable, where a modest 2 bed terrace makes half the annual income of its occupant by price inflation alone, and where the whole system being based on having two full-time incomes to support the house price inflation, despite that then requiring the kids to be dumped into childcare. I'll be strongly encouraging my wife not to go back to work, certainly not full time, as long as we've got kids below secondary school age - I firmly believe that's much better all round (particularly for the kids) than chucking loads of money at childcare so you can keep on earning.
I am not necessarily even advocating people spend longer in jail - just that they do serve the time they are sentenced to. I seems a far more honesty way to do things for everyone.
He would be and is pleasant to anyone. A superb and prescient farmer in his day but now steeped in news+comment from the declining Telegraph and presently GB News.
Mordaunt 1.67
Sunak 4.33
Truss 4.5
Badenoch 19
Tugendhat 34
Hunt 81
Braverman 101
Zahawi 126
https://www.betfair.com/sport/politics
It was probably more easy to be accepting if you knew one or two people who were gay. I'm sure there was a lot of bigotry around, and perhaps a lot of that was because there were no publicly gay people; so most people didn't know - or didn't know they knew - anyone gay.
For that reason she needs Rishi to stay strong. If Penny becomes frontrunner a lot of the Rishi support (which I suspect is fairly soft and based on the fact he WAS the frontrunner) will go to Penny. That potentially sets up Penny vs Truss which won’t be a great matchup for Liz.
This is maybe how she wins. She is the stop everyone else candidate, who is herself widely acceptable
But leaders have to overcome this sort of thing. If he cannot, well, it speaks for itself.
The lucky bleeder, he is single and appears to get about 8 weeks holiday a year…
https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1547226103978364930
Of course, they might break a promise, being politicians and all.
And the winner is Mike Smithson .... Did you ever doubt it? ...
EU legal moves to make them will take a long time.
My father never sat us down and said “let’s celebrate pride month” (not that it existed or course).
However we were frequently instructed that everyone deserves respect and that people’s personal lives were entirely their own business.
verb, UK
INTRANSITIVE - to claim everything you ever said was not what you said, and/or, to claim other’s words/deeds as your own.
https://twitter.com/PaulPfj/status/1546990693448663041
"Kate Ferguson
@kateferguson4
Hearing that Jeremy Hunt vote has collapsed and that he is privately conceding.
Cannot know this for sure as it’s a secret ballot… but have been told that
3:03 PM · Jul 13, 2022·Twitter for iPhone"
https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1547220067510898688
What was the purpose of that? Was it to try and nix his chances on the basis that they are concerned about him? Or was it because Labour assume he is going to win and they are getting the attack lines in early?
To me the latter seems most likely but if that’s right it strikes me as a misreading of the situation. It may however had the unintended consequence of putting some Tory MPs off?
It’s only 360 votes. Will take 30 minutes to count
Both Truss and Mordaunt are 1-10 shots vs Sunak, the members won't change their minds THAT much.
It won't be by acclamation now - which is his only hope.
I think the true prices should be something like
Mordaunt 1.8
Truss 3
Sunak 10
Badenoch 30
Tugendhat 50
Zahawi 200
Braverman 200
Hunt 200
I hope he does join the government again though, under the new leader.
"The snobbery of Brits abroad
Tourism thrives on class anxiety
BY LUCY LETHBRIDGE"
https://unherd.com/2022/07/why-brits-are-snobs-abroad/
Go to Abanotubani and have a sulphur bath.
Take a minibus trip out of town and visit Gori, the Stalin birthplace museum. Has even greater relevance today.
I'm crying into my Betfair position here
"the final two will be Mordaunt v Truss, which Mordaunt will win...."
If you’re a candidate like Badenoch or Tugendhat and you’re still in the game, you might quite fancy hanging around for those to build your profile a little more…
A court can look into this in 2030 or something.
And they say we've a problem with productivity?
I don't think you need to go down to one income for very long. There is good tax breaks for childcare, and 1x person can earn about £10k almost tax free.
The other thing I see getting older, is that people without children often sink in to serious depression in their 40's and onwards.
Sunak is a clear second best against most likely opponents, but I'd think of those opponents as more 1/4ish than 1/10 shots.