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Sunak just edging it at the moment in the betting – politicalbetting.com

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  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,309

    BREAKING YouGov Conservative members poll which will electrify the leadership election

    Penny Mordaunt beats EVERY candidate in a run off by at least 18 points

    Sunak loses to everyone except Zahawi/Braverman/Hunt

    Truss beats Sunak by 24

    https://thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-leadership-race-candidates-prime-minister-latest-tcx239sq0


    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1547192886571278336

    Anyone who doesn't want the tortoise face should back Penny.
    Sunak is TOAST on that poll
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    edited July 2022
    tlg86 said:

    kle4 said:

    He's only gone and chucked them out!

    Did they read the standing orders? Did they read and UNDERSTAND them??

    Never forget she was in the wrong that night. These things matter...
    She made a procedural error. The only reason she was there was because those councillors and that council was a dysfunctional mess.

    So she made a mistake under pressure, but if theyd not all been childish fools shed never have been in a position to make a mistake. Mistakes happen if people are under such pressure, its understandable . And abusive behaviour is not the answer when someone is wrong. You lose the moral high ground that way.
    I agree with that to a point. She really ought to have been ready for a confrontation. It shouldn't have come as a surprise.
    She definitely could have handled it better - even at the time people questioned if she had the power, and a certain level of obnoxious ness must be borne.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    Miss Vance, that's an unexpected move by Badenoch.

    Can you embed your reply in post so we don't have to scroll back up the page to see what on Earth you are referring to every bloody time?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Badenoch not among those polled (or reported?)

    There's a reason Keir Starmer is attacking me at #PMQs today.

    It's because he knows we're the only team that can beat Labour 👇





    https://twitter.com/RishiSunak/status/1547177911236558848?s=20&t=8twPNOmPc6YmLHMiGZTiIw
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,592

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Penny Mordaunt says that Britain has lost its sense of self

    She compares it to Paul McCartney's set at Glastonbury - 'he was playing new tunes but what we really wanted was the good old stuff'

    Didn't Paul play literally loads of old stuff, or did I watch a different performance

    Yes – terrible analogy. Not content with having a pop at Dad’s Army, she’s now having a pop at Paul McCartney.

    There’s the kernel of a point here. A nation is a nation because of the stories it tells itself about itself and has in common; common cultural reference points, beliefs, and so on. There are fewer and fewer of these. We have less and less in common; both our view of our common history and our view of our common culture*. And so the Glastonbury Festival – which even thirty years ago was still quite a long way from the mainstream – is presented as the centrepiece of the British Summer; but it is headlined by a man playing songs from 60 years ago because that was our last common cultural reference point.

    I’m just scratching at this issue; I’m not convinced I’m going at it right and I’m not sure where it leads. There are side issues about education, sport, situation comedy, the BBC, pubs, online and real life interactions. There’s a persuasive point about British society in here somewhere, and reflections about the extent Britain is typical or atypical of the west in the 21st century, but I’m not sure what it is or what to do about it.

    I’m not a massive Paul McCartney fan, by the way. I prefer my music less melodic. But I do recognise a) his talent, and b) his cultural importance, and c) that he pitched his set excellently.

    *On which point, I urge anyone to visit the Comedy Carpet in Blackpool, which is the best example we have of a common cultural reference point. It’s about half an acre of polished paving into which have been embossed dozens and dozens of punch lines and catch phrases which almost all British people and only British people will understand. “Don’t tell him, Pike – I’m playing all the right notes but not necessarily in the right order – Infamy, infamy, they’ve all got it in for me.” You don’t have to find any of it funny – though if absolutely none of it raises a smile you are either foreign or dead – but marvel at the fact that you can contextualise almost all of it without having had to try. And rejoice that there is at least something that we still have in common.
    And partly that's because the boomers are so numerous, and are insisting on hanging around so long. Imagine George Formby still being the big thing in the 1960s.

    The gentle evolution of popular culture that ought to have kept happening has ground to a halt and has become a bit of a tug of war.

    The fragmentation of mass media doesn't help. Have we had any universally shared moments this year apart from Paddington and the Queen?
    I saw a teenage kid my daughter's age wearing a Beatles t-shirt yesterday, it did make me feel a bit sad. Mind you, my daughter wears my old Deltic Preservation Society sweatshirt, apparently her friends all rave about how vintage it is. It does feel a bit as if the culture is ossifying.
    I've made exactly this point for some time.
    Culturally, 2022 doesn't feel that different from the late 90s. The music and telly and clothes are different, but not so different as the difference between the late 90s and the early 70s.

    I would say this is almost solely down to the internet.

    When I was young, you may not have liked what was on telly, or in the charts, but hunting out alternatives was pretty hard. You were at least aware of what was going on in the mainstream even if it wasn't your choice.
    Nowadays - well, I can't remember the last time I watched BBC1; and I am almost totally ignorant of chart music since Radio 6 came along and filled that need. And it is so much easier to seek out whatever niche in the cultural spectrum you might want to inhabit and ignore the rest of it.
    This isn't necessarily a bad thing, but it does mean we lose our common reference points.
    My kids playlists are far more eclectic than my rather limited singles and albums collections were. They listen to music they like over the last 60-70 years with the odd bit of classical chucked in as well. This is clearly because of the availability of the music from streaming services which gives them access way, way beyond the R1 playlist of my youth. This is a good thing but it must make new material slightly harder to sell profitably. It's just a different world.
    +1 - the musical taste of my children ranges from Green Day to really Naff 90s pop to Folk music with various bits in between.

    And that has a lot to do with the fact that everything is now instantly available without restriction. Streaming may have destroyed the income of musicians but it does allow people to find new music (continually) for next to nothing.
    Yet what they seem to be finding the most, is old music. Witness Kate Bush being #1 a few weeks back, with a 37-year-old song.
    Wasn't that because of Stranger Things?
    I've not watched Stranger Things, but I did watch the clip that used that song. And my goodness: it is a most effective piece of TV. Quite stunning, in fact. if the whole thing is anything like that then it must be sublime.

    (We don't have Netflix...)
    NSFW warning, but here it is (and probably loads of spoilers)

    I love this scene; the mood, the swapping between her Hell, her past and the other children trying to help her. The music. It's not exactly a novel idea, but it is done so absolutely brilliantly.

    Even without knowing the context of Max, the kids, or the evil dude, it works.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bV0RAcuG2Ao
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,802

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Penny Mordaunt says that Britain has lost its sense of self

    She compares it to Paul McCartney's set at Glastonbury - 'he was playing new tunes but what we really wanted was the good old stuff'

    Didn't Paul play literally loads of old stuff, or did I watch a different performance

    Yes – terrible analogy. Not content with having a pop at Dad’s Army, she’s now having a pop at Paul McCartney.

    There’s the kernel of a point here. A nation is a nation because of the stories it tells itself about itself and has in common; common cultural reference points, beliefs, and so on. There are fewer and fewer of these. We have less and less in common; both our view of our common history and our view of our common culture*. And so the Glastonbury Festival – which even thirty years ago was still quite a long way from the mainstream – is presented as the centrepiece of the British Summer; but it is headlined by a man playing songs from 60 years ago because that was our last common cultural reference point.

    I’m just scratching at this issue; I’m not convinced I’m going at it right and I’m not sure where it leads. There are side issues about education, sport, situation comedy, the BBC, pubs, online and real life interactions. There’s a persuasive point about British society in here somewhere, and reflections about the extent Britain is typical or atypical of the west in the 21st century, but I’m not sure what it is or what to do about it.

    I’m not a massive Paul McCartney fan, by the way. I prefer my music less melodic. But I do recognise a) his talent, and b) his cultural importance, and c) that he pitched his set excellently.

    *On which point, I urge anyone to visit the Comedy Carpet in Blackpool, which is the best example we have of a common cultural reference point. It’s about half an acre of polished paving into which have been embossed dozens and dozens of punch lines and catch phrases which almost all British people and only British people will understand. “Don’t tell him, Pike – I’m playing all the right notes but not necessarily in the right order – Infamy, infamy, they’ve all got it in for me.” You don’t have to find any of it funny – though if absolutely none of it raises a smile you are either foreign or dead – but marvel at the fact that you can contextualise almost all of it without having had to try. And rejoice that there is at least something that we still have in common.
    And partly that's because the boomers are so numerous, and are insisting on hanging around so long. Imagine George Formby still being the big thing in the 1960s.

    The gentle evolution of popular culture that ought to have kept happening has ground to a halt and has become a bit of a tug of war.

    The fragmentation of mass media doesn't help. Have we had any universally shared moments this year apart from Paddington and the Queen?
    I saw a teenage kid my daughter's age wearing a Beatles t-shirt yesterday, it did make me feel a bit sad. Mind you, my daughter wears my old Deltic Preservation Society sweatshirt, apparently her friends all rave about how vintage it is. It does feel a bit as if the culture is ossifying.
    I concur.

    Saw a German boy aged about twelve wearing a Rolling Stones t-shirt yesterday. That’s like if I had gone about in the 1980s wearing a Fletcher Henderson Orchestra t-shirt. Simply tragic.
    Guess you must have missed Flanders & Swann headlining Glasto in '72.
    I went to see the Pixies last week. Where I was (middle aged man in a mosh pit), I was surrounded by people 20 years younger than me. They treated me as something of an amusing oddity. Yet I was only just old enough to be into the Pixies first time around; most of these people must have been born some time after they split up*.
    I don't begrudge them this, and am happy that the music I love has found a new audience, but I'm slightly bemused by it. (This isn't necessarily the case at other bands from that era I've seen recently: people under 40 were rare at the Wedding Present and nonexistent at Half Man Half Biscuit.)


    *yes I know they reformed and have been releasing new albums, but 90% of the set was the pre-1992 era. They know what their audience wants.
    I was at Half Man Half Biscuit in Leeds a few weeks ago and there were loads of younger people. To be honest, I was surprised how many.

    Of course 85% of the audience was 40-plus overeducated, underpaid beta male centrist dads, just like me (not that I'm a dad, but you get what I mean). But there was a respectable amount of young uns. Some of them were even female. I saw one girl, probably early 20s, happily sporting a hi-vis vest and some - presumably Joy Division - oven gloves.
    That was not the impression I got of the audience in Manchester! I have never been part of an audience which was older, fatter, or more disreputable looking.

    Not much to conclude from that except that individual views are partial.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,790
    Sunak's job is to avoid facing Mordaunt in the final two. This lends some hope, if she can make it through the first round, to Badenoch, who (seems) to be more impressive than Truss.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    Tres said:

    Cookie said:

    Penny Mordaunt says that Britain has lost its sense of self

    She compares it to Paul McCartney's set at Glastonbury - 'he was playing new tunes but what we really wanted was the good old stuff'

    Didn't Paul play literally loads of old stuff, or did I watch a different performance

    Yes – terrible analogy. Not content with having a pop at Dad’s Army, she’s now having a pop at Paul McCartney.

    There’s the kernel of a point here. A nation is a nation because of the stories it tells itself about itself and has in common; common cultural reference points, beliefs, and so on. There are fewer and fewer of these. We have less and less in common; both our view of our common history and our view of our common culture*. And so the Glastonbury Festival – which even thirty years ago was still quite a long way from the mainstream – is presented as the centrepiece of the British Summer; but it is headlined by a man playing songs from 60 years ago because that was our last common cultural reference point.

    I’m just scratching at this issue; I’m not convinced I’m going at it right and I’m not sure where it leads. There are side issues about education, sport, situation comedy, the BBC, pubs, online and real life interactions. There’s a persuasive point about British society in here somewhere, and reflections about the extent Britain is typical or atypical of the west in the 21st century, but I’m not sure what it is or what to do about it.

    I’m not a massive Paul McCartney fan, by the way. I prefer my music less melodic. But I do recognise a) his talent, and b) his cultural importance, and c) that he pitched his set excellently.

    *On which point, I urge anyone to visit the Comedy Carpet in Blackpool, which is the best example we have of a common cultural reference point. It’s about half an acre of polished paving into which have been embossed dozens and dozens of punch lines and catch phrases which almost all British people and only British people will understand. “Don’t tell him, Pike – I’m playing all the right notes but not necessarily in the right order – Infamy, infamy, they’ve all got it in for me.” You don’t have to find any of it funny – though if absolutely none of it raises a smile you are either foreign or dead – but marvel at the fact that you can contextualise almost all of it without having had to try. And rejoice that there is at least something that we still have in common.
    And partly that's because the boomers are so numerous, and are insisting on hanging around so long. Imagine George Formby still being the big thing in the 1960s.

    The gentle evolution of popular culture that ought to have kept happening has ground to a halt and has become a bit of a tug of war.

    The fragmentation of mass media doesn't help. Have we had any universally shared moments this year apart from Paddington and the Queen?
    I saw a teenage kid my daughter's age wearing a Beatles t-shirt yesterday, it did make me feel a bit sad. Mind you, my daughter wears my old Deltic Preservation Society sweatshirt, apparently her friends all rave about how vintage it is. It does feel a bit as if the culture is ossifying.
    'Twas ever thus though, from my teens to early 20s I cosplayed rockers, rockabillies, fey Weimar romantics, 1940s zoot suiters, Waughian fogeys and a bit of cowboy thrown in. A brief period of punk was about the only new thing under the sun.

    It is difficult to see how a genuine cultural upheaval like punk could happen now mind, fat John Lydon advertising butter and luvvin Trump & Brexit spoiled it for everyone.
    I saw Pearl Jam last weekend and they did a cover of Public Image, I guessed Mr Lydon's recent venture into advertising had passed them by.
    Wonder if they saw this..

    "Sex Pistols icon Johnny Rotten backs Jacob Rees-Mogg to be new Prime Minister"
    https://www.dailystar.co.uk/showbiz/sex-pistols-icon-johnny-rotten-27435937
    I bet JRM doesn't even know who he is
    Maybe he didn't, but he found out before giving a typically gracious response

    "Mr Rees-Mogg – who is a devout Catholic - appeared to be flattered by the comments.


    He tweeted: “Even if my leg is being pulled I am honoured by this exceptionally kind endorsement by Mr Lydon, alias Johnny Rotten.”"
    He was much more bearable when he was unusual but courteous. Even funny.

    Being in government made his flaws much more impactful.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,587

    carnforth said:

    Timmy Westwood in more trouble

    Former Radio 1 star faces new claims of sexual abuse and misconduct from multiple women; he has previously denied wrongdoing

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2022/jul/13/tim-westwood-accused-of-sex-with-14-year-old-girl-when-in-his-30s

    Of course nobody at the BBC knew anything ever.

    They still have the “John Peel” stage at Glastonbury, so I suppose the key is to die at the right time.
    I a not a big one for cancel culture etc, but I do find that quite incredible that he seemed to have got a pass for so long and held up as music radio god, given he admitted having sex with under aged girls.
    I agree, but I would have thought that a very good proportion of prominent pop and rock artists did the same in the 60s-80s. Not to excuse it, but just to note he probably wasn't that unusual.
    Yes, the fact they were willing to talk about it in interviews shows it was “a different time”, at least to some extent.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,064
    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Labour MP calling for tougher prison sentences for a range of crimes.

    Its standard. MPs think that fixes everything.
    Cookie said:

    MISTY said:

    IF you actually read conhome you can infer quite a bit. A clash between the MPs and the membership may be coming.

    The membership do not want a choice between Mordaunt and Sunak. IF that's the choice, then I reckon a vote strike/ultra low turnout is not out of the question.

    A boycott might be pushing it, but I would not entirely rule that out, either.

    But this is what the membership always get - a choice between the frontrunner who was always likely to come top among the MPs and one other. What's different this time?
    Nothing. But some MPs will whip them up about being denied a fair say. Same thing was done (briefly) when some thought Boris might not easily win among MPs.

    None. But some MPs will whip them up a out 'denying' the members the chance to vote
    Contrary to MISTY’s impressions, Mordaunt is polling very well among party members in the latest polling.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Nigelb said:

    NEW:
    @KemiBadenoch announces she will break up the Treasury if PM. Economic growth would be run from No10, with a new Office for Economic Growth.

    “As Exchequer Secretary I saw first hand the barriers to economic growth - we need to change the way the Treasury works."


    https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1547187804081356800

    Sounds a terrible idea. It will end in "picking winners" approaches at the whim of #10.
    Plays into Leon's 'let's take a dangerous gamble... what could possibly go wrong' meme.
    The only purpose of life is to be adventurous. "Stay safe" is the most vacuous advice imaginable.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,309
    Mordaunt now CLEAR favourite on Betfair
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,309
    Exciting!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    edited July 2022
    120 minutes for 358 MPs to vote gives an average of about 20 seconds for each one to vote.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    Leon said:

    BREAKING YouGov Conservative members poll which will electrify the leadership election

    Penny Mordaunt beats EVERY candidate in a run off by at least 18 points

    Sunak loses to everyone except Zahawi/Braverman/Hunt

    Truss beats Sunak by 24

    https://thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-leadership-race-candidates-prime-minister-latest-tcx239sq0


    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1547192886571278336

    Anyone who doesn't want the tortoise face should back Penny.
    Sunak is TOAST on that poll
    Rishi’s only hope is getting to the final round with a candidate who then self-combusts through scandal.

    Could we possibly see a surprise result in the first round? Rishi underperforming as MPs realise he is unlikely to win the membership, and switching support?


  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited July 2022
    USA inflation: 9.1%

    Highest in 40 years.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,019
    edited July 2022
    You know you are getting old when you go to a gig and you see say a father and son wearing the album t-shirt which you bought when it came out and neither of those wearing it were alive.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    NEW:
    @KemiBadenoch announces she will break up the Treasury if PM. Economic growth would be run from No10, with a new Office for Economic Growth.

    “As Exchequer Secretary I saw first hand the barriers to economic growth - we need to change the way the Treasury works."


    https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1547187804081356800

    Sounds a terrible idea. It will end in "picking winners" approaches at the whim of #10.
    Plays into Leon's 'let's take a dangerous gamble... what could possibly go wrong' meme.
    But I’ve done that all my life - taken a dangerous gamble, “what could possibly go wrong” - and here I am on the shores of Kotor Bay

    Works for Boris too.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,642

    Leon said:

    BREAKING YouGov Conservative members poll which will electrify the leadership election

    Penny Mordaunt beats EVERY candidate in a run off by at least 18 points

    Sunak loses to everyone except Zahawi/Braverman/Hunt

    Truss beats Sunak by 24

    https://thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-leadership-race-candidates-prime-minister-latest-tcx239sq0


    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1547192886571278336

    Anyone who doesn't want the tortoise face should back Penny.
    Sunak is TOAST on that poll
    Rishi’s only hope is getting to the final round with a candidate who then self-combusts through scandal.

    Could we possibly see a surprise result in the first round? Rishi underperforming as MPs realise he is unlikely to win the membership, and switching support?
    Imagine if Team Rishi managed to engineer a run-off against Braverman, and then he lost.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    Leon said:

    BREAKING YouGov Conservative members poll which will electrify the leadership election

    Penny Mordaunt beats EVERY candidate in a run off by at least 18 points

    Sunak loses to everyone except Zahawi/Braverman/Hunt

    Truss beats Sunak by 24

    https://thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-leadership-race-candidates-prime-minister-latest-tcx239sq0


    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1547192886571278336

    Anyone who doesn't want the tortoise face should back Penny.
    Sunak is TOAST on that poll
    Rishi’s only hope is getting to the final round with a candidate who then self-combusts through scandal.

    Could we possibly see a surprise result in the first round? Rishi underperforming as MPs realise he is unlikely to win the membership, and switching support?


    Not today but it's possible tomorrow as the game becomes clearer
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Leon said:

    BREAKING YouGov Conservative members poll which will electrify the leadership election

    Penny Mordaunt beats EVERY candidate in a run off by at least 18 points

    Sunak loses to everyone except Zahawi/Braverman/Hunt

    Truss beats Sunak by 24

    https://thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-leadership-race-candidates-prime-minister-latest-tcx239sq0


    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1547192886571278336

    Anyone who doesn't want the tortoise face should back Penny.
    Sunak is TOAST on that poll
    His strategy is to get so many votes with MPs that party members feel pressurised to support him even though they don't really want to vote for him.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    If Kemi survives today, get on her IMHO.

    There’s got to be a non-insignificant chance we could see Penny v Liz or Penny v Kemi.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    edited July 2022
    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Penny Mordaunt says that Britain has lost its sense of self

    She compares it to Paul McCartney's set at Glastonbury - 'he was playing new tunes but what we really wanted was the good old stuff'

    Didn't Paul play literally loads of old stuff, or did I watch a different performance

    Yes – terrible analogy. Not content with having a pop at Dad’s Army, she’s now having a pop at Paul McCartney.

    There’s the kernel of a point here. A nation is a nation because of the stories it tells itself about itself and has in common; common cultural reference points, beliefs, and so on. There are fewer and fewer of these. We have less and less in common; both our view of our common history and our view of our common culture*. And so the Glastonbury Festival – which even thirty years ago was still quite a long way from the mainstream – is presented as the centrepiece of the British Summer; but it is headlined by a man playing songs from 60 years ago because that was our last common cultural reference point.

    I’m just scratching at this issue; I’m not convinced I’m going at it right and I’m not sure where it leads. There are side issues about education, sport, situation comedy, the BBC, pubs, online and real life interactions. There’s a persuasive point about British society in here somewhere, and reflections about the extent Britain is typical or atypical of the west in the 21st century, but I’m not sure what it is or what to do about it.

    I’m not a massive Paul McCartney fan, by the way. I prefer my music less melodic. But I do recognise a) his talent, and b) his cultural importance, and c) that he pitched his set excellently.

    *On which point, I urge anyone to visit the Comedy Carpet in Blackpool, which is the best example we have of a common cultural reference point. It’s about half an acre of polished paving into which have been embossed dozens and dozens of punch lines and catch phrases which almost all British people and only British people will understand. “Don’t tell him, Pike – I’m playing all the right notes but not necessarily in the right order – Infamy, infamy, they’ve all got it in for me.” You don’t have to find any of it funny – though if absolutely none of it raises a smile you are either foreign or dead – but marvel at the fact that you can contextualise almost all of it without having had to try. And rejoice that there is at least something that we still have in common.
    And partly that's because the boomers are so numerous, and are insisting on hanging around so long. Imagine George Formby still being the big thing in the 1960s.

    The gentle evolution of popular culture that ought to have kept happening has ground to a halt and has become a bit of a tug of war.

    The fragmentation of mass media doesn't help. Have we had any universally shared moments this year apart from Paddington and the Queen?
    I saw a teenage kid my daughter's age wearing a Beatles t-shirt yesterday, it did make me feel a bit sad. Mind you, my daughter wears my old Deltic Preservation Society sweatshirt, apparently her friends all rave about how vintage it is. It does feel a bit as if the culture is ossifying.
    I concur.

    Saw a German boy aged about twelve wearing a Rolling Stones t-shirt yesterday. That’s like if I had gone about in the 1980s wearing a Fletcher Henderson Orchestra t-shirt. Simply tragic.
    Guess you must have missed Flanders & Swann headlining Glasto in '72.
    I went to see the Pixies last week. Where I was (middle aged man in a mosh pit), I was surrounded by people 20 years younger than me. They treated me as something of an amusing oddity. Yet I was only just old enough to be into the Pixies first time around; most of these people must have been born some time after they split up*.
    I don't begrudge them this, and am happy that the music I love has found a new audience, but I'm slightly bemused by it. (This isn't necessarily the case at other bands from that era I've seen recently: people under 40 were rare at the Wedding Present and nonexistent at Half Man Half Biscuit.)


    *yes I know they reformed and have been releasing new albums, but 90% of the set was the pre-1992 era. They know what their audience wants.
    I was at Half Man Half Biscuit in Leeds a few weeks ago and there were loads of younger people. To be honest, I was surprised how many.

    Of course 85% of the audience was 40-plus overeducated, underpaid beta male centrist dads, just like me (not that I'm a dad, but you get what I mean). But there was a respectable amount of young uns. Some of them were even female. I saw one girl, probably early 20s, happily sporting a hi-vis vest and some - presumably Joy Division - oven gloves.
    That was not the impression I got of the audience in Manchester! I have never been part of an audience which was older, fatter, or more disreputable looking.

    Not much to conclude from that except that individual views are partial.
    Echo and the Bunnymen - I was surprised how young some of the audience were given that the youngest song played was from circa 1987.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,019
    edited July 2022

    USA inflation: 9.1%

    Just transitory......as one of the big advisors to Biden said last year, the west has fixed inflation so we can continue the expansive monetary policy...it seems they meant to say fixed it to be at an eye wateringly high level.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    Andy_JS said:

    120 minutes for 358 MPs to vote gives an average of about 20 seconds for each one to vote.

    Why can't they do it electronically??? Then it need only take minutes
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,072

    Mr. B, well, until leaving the EU causes the genocide of 20 million people (USSR alone) I think one might just hold a better standing than the other.

    Socialism and communism are not really the same thing, though.
    For example this guy, who I came across recently while reading around Polish and Ukrainian history. An early Polish advocate for Ukrainian independence.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juliusz_Mieroszewski
    ...Mieroszewski was not only a dedicated socialist, but was strongly opposed to communism and the Soviet domination of Eastern Europe. A crucial, and at the time unique, consideration of the Kultura programme was the Polish relationship with the national aspirations of the country's former minorities, the Belarusians, Lithuanians and Ukrainians...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    Voting has started.

    Did we ever get word of the MPs who had the whip suspended? Also, will we see Boris Johnson in the voting room? Traditionally, the outgoing leader abstains, but we know quite a bit about Johnson and tradition.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557

    Andy_JS said:

    120 minutes for 358 MPs to vote gives an average of about 20 seconds for each one to vote.

    Why can't they do it electronically??? Then it need only take minutes
    Because electronic voting isn't reliable and can be hacked.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    Badenoch now fourth on declared supporters, leapfrogging TT
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,072

    Miss Vance, that's an unexpected move by Badenoch.

    Can you embed your reply in post so we don't have to scroll back up the page to see what on Earth you are referring to every bloody time?
    Don't be silly. :smile:
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,531

    carnforth said:

    Timmy Westwood in more trouble

    Former Radio 1 star faces new claims of sexual abuse and misconduct from multiple women; he has previously denied wrongdoing

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2022/jul/13/tim-westwood-accused-of-sex-with-14-year-old-girl-when-in-his-30s

    Of course nobody at the BBC knew anything ever.

    They still have the “John Peel” stage at Glastonbury, so I suppose the key is to die at the right time.
    I a not a big one for cancel culture etc, but I do find that quite incredible that he seemed to have got a pass for so long and held up as music radio god, given he admitted having sex with under aged girls, while somebody did a hurty tweet 10 years and straight in the dog house.
    Reading around it it seems that all of the evidence for this comes from Peel himself openly admitting it in the past. There also don't appear to have been any formal complaints from the girls involved. I am not saying it makes it right but I wonder of that is the reason for the lack of further action.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,567
    Sandpit said:

    Voting has started.

    Did we ever get word of the MPs who had the whip suspended? Also, will we see Boris Johnson in the voting room? Traditionally, the outgoing leader abstains, but we know quite a bit about Johnson and tradition.

    How else can he do a write-in for himself?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    Sometimes frontrunners are frontrunners for a reason. Members would be bloody minded to feel like MPs are trying to force them to vote for the leading candidate.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Labour MP calling for tougher prison sentences for a range of crimes.

    Its standard. MPs think that fixes everything.
    I did wonder whether Braverman or Patel would pull out the 'bring back hanging' option.

    There isn't much that they can do on prison sentences, because they've passed lots of legislation to make them longer and creating lots of new imprisonable offences but now seem to have run out of obvious options. Doing this was a very short sighted policy in my view, it satisfies popular demands but forces future governments to pay the cost (of housing the prisoners).

  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,802
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    NEW:
    @KemiBadenoch announces she will break up the Treasury if PM. Economic growth would be run from No10, with a new Office for Economic Growth.

    “As Exchequer Secretary I saw first hand the barriers to economic growth - we need to change the way the Treasury works."


    https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1547187804081356800

    Sounds a terrible idea. It will end in "picking winners" approaches at the whim of #10.
    Plays into Leon's 'let's take a dangerous gamble... what could possibly go wrong' meme.
    But I’ve done that all my life - taken a dangerous gamble, “what could possibly go wrong” - and here I am on the shores of Kotor Bay

    Yes but there is a bit of survivor bias here.
    There are probably lots of people who have taken that approach. But we only get to hear from those for whom the gamble pays off. If it hadn't paid off for you we probably wouldn't be hearing you advocate the approach.
    What we need to do to evaluate this is find 20 or so 20-something high risk takers and see where they get to 30 years later.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    Sunak out to 4 on Betfair, Mordaunt just over evens.

    Good. Anyone but Sunak. In fact, I wouldn't vote Conservative if he was the leader.



  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    Badenoch not among those polled (or reported?)

    There's a reason Keir Starmer is attacking me at #PMQs today.

    It's because he knows we're the only team that can beat Labour 👇





    https://twitter.com/RishiSunak/status/1547177911236558848?s=20&t=8twPNOmPc6YmLHMiGZTiIw

    I'm very surprised by Mordaunt's low score on that poll. I'd have thought she would have been the most popular with the public. But I suspect there is a strong name recognition effect.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Quite a few MPs now wondering if they announced too soon. After a composed launch the Mordmentum is now looking strong. PM4PM is first candidate dropping below evens on Betfair https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1547198628904591360/photo/1
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING YouGov Conservative members poll which will electrify the leadership election

    Penny Mordaunt beats EVERY candidate in a run off by at least 18 points

    Sunak loses to everyone except Zahawi/Braverman/Hunt

    Truss beats Sunak by 24

    https://thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-leadership-race-candidates-prime-minister-latest-tcx239sq0


    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1547192886571278336

    Anyone who doesn't want the tortoise face should back Penny.
    Sunak is TOAST on that poll
    His strategy is to get so many votes with MPs that party members feel pressurised to support him even though they don't really want to vote for him.
    The interesting thing is, I think that could have worked of it had gone to the membership in 2016, but I’m not sure the same would hold true now.

    The membership just aren’t keen on Rishi. I don’t think they want him as PM. Given the current state of the Tory Party I don’t suspect they’d be willing to make a trade off for party unity - members are much more likely to vote for their favourite candidate, this leadership election is a roll of the dice as to whether they can save a majority in 2024 anyway - might as well go for your favourite.
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788
    Sandpit said:

    Voting has started.

    Did we ever get word of the MPs who had the whip suspended? Also, will we see Boris Johnson in the voting room? Traditionally, the outgoing leader abstains, but we know quite a bit about Johnson and tradition.

    I don't think that is tradition for them not to vote, just not to endorse. May voted in the 2019 leadership election as turnout amongst MPs was 100%.
  • Sunak still favourite to make final 2

    Make Final 2 - Conservative Leader Contest
    Win
    1/5 Rishi Sunak
    1/3 Penny Mordaunt
    7/4 Liz Truss
    7/1 Tom Tugendhat
    8/1 Kemi Badenoch
    14/1 Jeremy Hunt
    25/1 Suella Braverman
    33/1 Zahawi

    https://www.betfair.com/sport/politics
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,900
    edited July 2022
    Leon said:

    Mordaunt now CLEAR favourite on Betfair

    Penny is odds-on!

    1.95 Penny Mordaunt 51%
    4.6 Rishi Sunak 21%
    4.7 Liz Truss 21%
    20 Kemi Badenoch 5%
    36 Tom Tugendhat
    140 Jeremy Hunt
    150 Dominic Raab
    200 Suella Braverman
    250 Nadhim Zahawi
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    .
    RH1992 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Voting has started.

    Did we ever get word of the MPs who had the whip suspended? Also, will we see Boris Johnson in the voting room? Traditionally, the outgoing leader abstains, but we know quite a bit about Johnson and tradition.

    I don't think that is tradition for them not to vote, just not to endorse. May voted in the 2019 leadership election as turnout amongst MPs was 100%.
    Did she? I thought both Cameron and May abstained. I stand corrected if so.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    As someone was saying above, the comments on ToryHome are largely anti-Penny, which is odd.

    That all said, other commentators on the site have been making the point that much of the Tory membership is legacy-Cameron, and leans left of Tory voters overall (many rightwingers are Ukip members, not Tory members).

    Hence why Penny polls so well with the membership perhaps? They are more liberal than one might think?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    He's only gone and chucked them out!

    Did they read the standing orders? Did they read and UNDERSTAND them??

    Never forget she was in the wrong that night. These things matter...
    She made a procedural error. The only readon
    MrEd said:

    Sunak out to 4 on Betfair, Mordaunt just over evens.

    Good. Anyone but Sunak. In fact, I wouldn't vote Conservative if he was the leader.



    Why is that? He was well regarded by Tories until recently (and as Chancellor by all his rivals until last week).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,072
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    NEW:
    @KemiBadenoch announces she will break up the Treasury if PM. Economic growth would be run from No10, with a new Office for Economic Growth.

    “As Exchequer Secretary I saw first hand the barriers to economic growth - we need to change the way the Treasury works."


    https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1547187804081356800

    Sounds a terrible idea. It will end in "picking winners" approaches at the whim of #10.
    Plays into Leon's 'let's take a dangerous gamble... what could possibly go wrong' meme.
    But I’ve done that all my life - taken a dangerous gamble, “what could possibly go wrong” - and here I am on the shores of Kotor Bay

    I've no problem with your doing so.
    Just that as a national strategy, it leaves something to be desired.

    Put her in charge of a department first, and see how that turns out.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Kemi Badenoch is value on BE at the moment in my opinion.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,567

    You know you are getting old when you go to a gig and you see say a father and son wearing the album t-shirt which you bought when it came out and neither of those wearing it were alive.

    Cool kid in Totnes was wearing a RUN-DMC T. Me wearing my country gardening gear, looking about 1,000. I asked him if he had seen them live. "Nah mate."

    "They were brilliant. Beastie Boys were the support...."

    His face was a picture.....
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Leon said:

    Deleted for being interesting but duplicated


    If it was a duplicate of the post below, it really wasn't. Besides which she is a rabid right- winger.
  • Andy_JS said:

    120 minutes for 358 MPs to vote gives an average of about 20 seconds for each one to vote.

    It only normally takes about 15 minutes for ~640 MPs to vote in a division.

    Why would it take 8 times as long, for half as many MPs?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    Andy_JS said:

    Kemi Badenoch is value on BE at the moment in my opinion.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234

    I think she definitely gets the 30 votes,

    Badenoch and Mourdaunt had the best received launch events.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Is John Baron still taking soundings,,,

    :)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402

    Andy_JS said:

    120 minutes for 358 MPs to vote gives an average of about 20 seconds for each one to vote.

    It only normally takes about 15 minutes for ~640 MPs to vote in a division.

    Why would it take 8 times as long, for half as many MPs?
    They are marking a piece of paper and placing it in a box rather than just walking through a doorway?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,434
    kle4 said:

    Sometimes frontrunners are frontrunners for a reason. Members would be bloody minded to feel like MPs are trying to force them to vote for the leading candidate.

    And sometimes they aren't. This contest pits unproven and semi-proven candidates over a candidate (Sunak) who has proven himself inadequate.
  • What's worse out of rabid and loony?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557

    Andy_JS said:

    120 minutes for 358 MPs to vote gives an average of about 20 seconds for each one to vote.

    It only normally takes about 15 minutes for ~640 MPs to vote in a division.

    Why would it take 8 times as long, for half as many MPs?
    There's only one ballot box I think. I don't know how many voting booths they have.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    Still less than a week since Javid and Sunak resigned
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,383
    edited July 2022
    It's just dawned on me that Kemi Badenoch is, I suspect, influenced by Munira Mirza, who may well be supporting her in the background.

    Mirza was, for those who don't recall, Boris's Head of Policy until her resignation in February, and an ex-member of the Revolutionary Communist Party. Her and Badenoch seem to have a lot in common.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Munira_Mirza
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840

    What's worse out of rabid and loony?

    Rabid. Loony plus it's catching.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052
    Who got the vital Christi endorsement and inherited his support?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Hearing the two Alba MPs who got chucked out of a parliament for heckling today could be suspended for 8 days.

    If they are they won’t get paid over the summer

    Expensive heckle that

    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1547201384935817219
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,019

    You know you are getting old when you go to a gig and you see say a father and son wearing the album t-shirt which you bought when it came out and neither of those wearing it were alive.

    Cool kid in Totnes was wearing a RUN-DMC T. Me wearing my country gardening gear, looking about 1,000. I asked him if he had seen them live. "Nah mate."

    "They were brilliant. Beastie Boys were the support...."

    His face was a picture.....
    You should have said fighting for your right to party before you were born....
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,526
    edited July 2022
    I know there's insider trading, but I can't see how anyone has the knowledge to propel Mordaunt to less than evens in a few hours. There must a factor we don't know about (a big endorsement/withdrawal?) but even then it looks far too short.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    Kevin Foster comes out for Liz.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,362

    Andy_JS said:

    120 minutes for 358 MPs to vote gives an average of about 20 seconds for each one to vote.

    It only normally takes about 15 minutes for ~640 MPs to vote in a division.

    Why would it take 8 times as long, for half as many MPs?
    MPs vote in a division by walking through doors and being counted as they do so.

    The leadership vote uses bits of paper, and requires holding a pen or pencil the right way round and reading the names of the candidates.
  • Carnyx said:

    What's worse out of rabid and loony?

    Rabid. Loony plus it's catching.
    Oh dear. It’s the right and nationalists that get called rabid
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191

    I know there's insider trading, but I can't see how anyone has the knowledge to propel Mordaunt to less than evens in a few hours. There must a factor we don't know about (a big endorsement/withdrawal?) but even then it looks far too short.

    It's based on the members survey.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    kle4 said:

    Sometimes frontrunners are frontrunners for a reason. Members would be bloody minded to feel like MPs are trying to force them to vote for the leading candidate.

    And sometimes they aren't. This contest pits unproven and semi-proven candidates over a candidate (Sunak) who has proven himself inadequate.
    Inadequate but still better than the other candidates given their love of the magic money tree and strange choice of tax cuts.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    edited July 2022

    I know there's insider trading, but I can't see how anyone has the knowledge to propel Mordaunt to less than evens in a few hours. There must a factor we don't know about (a big endorsement/withdrawal?) but even then it looks far too short.

    Looks like it’s based off the YouGov members’ poll, that shows him coming second to all plausible rivals in the runoff.
    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1547192886571278336
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,019
    edited July 2022
    The other time you know you are getting old is when some youngster says I love such and such new song, its a cover of some old song by x....and you have to tell them that was itself a cover of....
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773

    Leon said:

    Mordaunt now CLEAR favourite on Betfair

    Penny is odds-on!

    1.95 Penny Mordaunt 51%
    4.6 Rishi Sunak 21%
    4.7 Liz Truss 21%
    20 Kemi Badenoch 5%
    36 Tom Tugendhat
    140 Jeremy Hunt
    150 Dominic Raab
    200 Suella Braverman
    250 Nadhim Zahawi
    Wow, that is low...I'm not sure if she makes it to the top two though.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    edited July 2022
    Sunak was/is the frontrunner on the basis that he has been groomed for the Tory leadership ever since he became CoE. Oh how the Tory MPs swooned when their new, young, telegenic Blair clone arrived on the scene and hit new heights of popularity with the public during the pandemic.

    It has been an unspoken rule that should Boris have fallen under a bus (a bendy bus?), Rishi is the man to steady the ship.

    There is still a hangover with the MPs it seems longing after those glory days when he was the annointed successor, but it ignores the economic troubles the country faces, the revelations about his wife’s tax affairs earlier this year and the FPN. Why also did he back Boris so long? These are all serious wounds and Labour have the attack lines ready.

    He will not win this election.
  • I know there's insider trading, but I can't see how anyone has the knowledge to propel Mordaunt to less than evens in a few hours. There must a factor we don't know about (a big endorsement/withdrawal?) but even then it looks far too short.

    Surely its the response to the opinion poll? It shows Mordaunt beating Sunak by 67% to 28%

    https://news.sky.com/story/tory-leadership-race-live-updates-first-leadership-ballot-takes-place-today-amid-row-over-dirty-tricks-12593360?postid=4157881#liveblog-body
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,900
    edited July 2022

    Leon said:

    Mordaunt now CLEAR favourite on Betfair

    Penny is odds-on!

    1.95 Penny Mordaunt 51%
    4.6 Rishi Sunak 21%
    4.7 Liz Truss 21%
    20 Kemi Badenoch 5%
    36 Tom Tugendhat
    140 Jeremy Hunt
    150 Dominic Raab
    200 Suella Braverman
    250 Nadhim Zahawi
    Something has happened besides Penny Mordaunt's launch and the new poll. Is a Mordaunt fan trying to rig the market or has Rishi come out for sending small boys up chimneys?

    ETA I see Nick Palmer has also raised an eyebrow.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773

    I know there's insider trading, but I can't see how anyone has the knowledge to propel Mordaunt to less than evens in a few hours. There must a factor we don't know about (a big endorsement/withdrawal?) but even then it looks far too short.

    I wonder if Sunak knows he can't win he pulls in behind Mordaunt to scupper Truss.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    The other time you know you are getting old is when some youngster says I love such and such new song, its a cover of some old song by x....and you have to tell them that was itself a cover of....

    So true. That does work on us too though, I spent two decades thinking Always On My Mind was by the Pet Shop Boys.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310

    Badenoch not among those polled (or reported?)

    There's a reason Keir Starmer is attacking me at #PMQs today.

    It's because he knows we're the only team that can beat Labour 👇





    https://twitter.com/RishiSunak/status/1547177911236558848?s=20&t=8twPNOmPc6YmLHMiGZTiIw

    I'm very surprised by Mordaunt's low score on that poll. I'd have thought she would have been the most popular with the public. But I suspect there is a strong name recognition effect.
    Yep, and it diminishes Sunak further because of it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    edited July 2022

    kle4 said:

    Sometimes frontrunners are frontrunners for a reason. Members would be bloody minded to feel like MPs are trying to force them to vote for the leading candidate.

    And sometimes they aren't. This contest pits unproven and semi-proven candidates over a candidate (Sunak) who has proven himself inadequate.
    Oh I'm not saying they should definitely go for Sunak. But there seems a bit of a 'anyone but the favourite' reaction, as if anyone who tops the MP ballot would not be acceptable for that reason alone

    He looks a lightweight to me, I can see why pretty much any other person in final two probably beats him.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,567
    Pulpstar said:

    Kevin Foster comes out for Liz.

    And Penny a Torquay girl. Tut tut, Kevin.....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    Leon said:

    Mordaunt now CLEAR favourite on Betfair

    Penny is odds-on!

    1.95 Penny Mordaunt 51%
    4.6 Rishi Sunak 21%
    4.7 Liz Truss 21%
    20 Kemi Badenoch 5%
    36 Tom Tugendhat
    140 Jeremy Hunt
    150 Dominic Raab
    200 Suella Braverman
    250 Nadhim Zahawi
    Wow, that is low...I'm not sure if she makes it to the top two though.
    Last time the killer point was who would help MPs best to keep their seats.

    There may be polling on that, but MPs dont seem persuaded anyone is standout on that point.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727
    Selebian said:

    Just sold a bit of Sunak and bought a bit of Truss. Still green on both, but Truss looks reasonable value to me while Sunak a bit short, perhaps.

    Edit: Also, I want some more winnings to soften the blow if we do end up with Truss as PM!

    And now sold some Mordaunt to buy a bit of Rishi back at longer odds. May well be a bit of a move back after the voting results tonight (if so, I'll likely switch again). Still all green.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,837

    USA inflation: 9.1%

    Highest in 40 years.

    I blame Brexit, of course.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Scott_xP said:

    Hearing the two Alba MPs who got chucked out of a parliament for heckling today could be suspended for 8 days.

    If they are they won’t get paid over the summer

    Expensive heckle that

    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1547201384935817219

    What were they heckling about? I've searched but can't find an answer.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813

    I know there's insider trading, but I can't see how anyone has the knowledge to propel Mordaunt to less than evens in a few hours. There must a factor we don't know about (a big endorsement/withdrawal?) but even then it looks far too short.

    I wonder if Sunak knows he can't win he pulls in behind Mordaunt to scupper Truss.
    If Sunak loses I am not convinced we will see him returning to government.
  • theakestheakes Posts: 930
    Seems the penny has dropped!!!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,592
    For any rocketry geeks who missed Rocket Lab's Electron launch this morning, you have another opportunity in a short while.

    ArianeSpace are launching their newly updated Vega-C rocket for the first time. The stream should start in ten minutes.

    Watch here:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mgxx3A2FIQ8
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,309
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    NEW:
    @KemiBadenoch announces she will break up the Treasury if PM. Economic growth would be run from No10, with a new Office for Economic Growth.

    “As Exchequer Secretary I saw first hand the barriers to economic growth - we need to change the way the Treasury works."


    https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1547187804081356800

    Sounds a terrible idea. It will end in "picking winners" approaches at the whim of #10.
    Plays into Leon's 'let's take a dangerous gamble... what could possibly go wrong' meme.
    But I’ve done that all my life - taken a dangerous gamble, “what could possibly go wrong” - and here I am on the shores of Kotor Bay

    Yes but there is a bit of survivor bias here.
    There are probably lots of people who have taken that approach. But we only get to hear from those for whom the gamble pays off. If it hadn't paid off for you we probably wouldn't be hearing you advocate the approach.
    What we need to do to evaluate this is find 20 or so 20-something high risk takers and see where they get to 30 years later.
    Yes

    For various reasons I've been looking back at my life recently

    There are at least 5 occasions when I should have died. And I mean, really definitely odds against me surviving

    A couple can give me a cold sweat even now

    And also multiple occasions when I took dramatic if not foolish risks, where, if it had gone wrong, I would now be in a much worse place

    But of course there is a selection bias here. Perhaps if I hadn't taken some of these risks, life would have turned out better?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,900

    Leon said:

    Mordaunt now CLEAR favourite on Betfair

    Penny is odds-on!

    1.95 Penny Mordaunt 51%
    4.6 Rishi Sunak 21%
    4.7 Liz Truss 21%
    20 Kemi Badenoch 5%
    36 Tom Tugendhat
    140 Jeremy Hunt
    150 Dominic Raab
    200 Suella Braverman
    250 Nadhim Zahawi
    Something has happened besides Penny Mordaunt's launch and the new poll. Is a Mordaunt fan trying to rig the market or has Rishi come out for sending small boys up chimneys?

    ETA I see Nick Palmer has also raised an eyebrow.
    Watching the betting and seeing Rishi come in a point and go out a point and come in a point and rinse and repeat. It does not look natural.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    120 minutes for 358 MPs to vote gives an average of about 20 seconds for each one to vote.

    Why can't they do it electronically??? Then it need only take minutes
    Because electronic voting isn't reliable and can be hacked.
    They managed to make it work for Parliament
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    Breaking News

    Chishti throws the considerable weight of his leadership campaign behind Tugendhat
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    Members numbers do look absolubtely terminal for Rishi.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,567

    Badenoch not among those polled (or reported?)

    There's a reason Keir Starmer is attacking me at #PMQs today.

    It's because he knows we're the only team that can beat Labour 👇





    https://twitter.com/RishiSunak/status/1547177911236558848?s=20&t=8twPNOmPc6YmLHMiGZTiIw

    I'm very surprised by Mordaunt's low score on that poll. I'd have thought she would have been the most popular with the public. But I suspect there is a strong name recognition effect.
    Yep, and it diminishes Sunak further because of it.
    Diminish Rishi much more and you're going to be needing an electron microscope....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,837
    If Sunak is going to win this, he needs to win big today, I would suggest at least 40% of the votes. He needs to look the inevitable choice so that he picks up endorsements of those eliminated. If he just wins I think he will be overtaken, possibly twice, eliminating him. Even more so if he doesn't top the poll of course. Any talk of him lending out votes to anyone else is utter foolishness, he needs every single one he can get.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    120 minutes for 358 MPs to vote gives an average of about 20 seconds for each one to vote.

    Why can't they do it electronically??? Then it need only take minutes
    Because electronic voting isn't reliable and can be hacked.
    They managed to make it work for Parliament
    Yes indeed, Holyrood has had it for years, decades now. And Westminster online too. Senedd, maybe NIA?

    We don't have to stick in the C18 just because of Mr R-M any more.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Nadhim Zahawi is using NZ4PM as his leadership election tag. If you click on http://NZ4PM.com you are redirected to Penny Mordaunt’s leadership home page. Comedy gold. You gotta love this contest
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,309

    Leon said:

    Deleted for being interesting but duplicated


    If it was a duplicate of the post below, it really wasn't. Besides which she is a rabid right- winger.
    This may come as a dreadful surprise, but I have a distinct tolerance for "rabid right wingers", especially if they are only "rabidly right wing" by the warped standards of the deviant Woke Left

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840
    edited July 2022

    For any rocketry geeks who missed Rocket Lab's Electron launch this morning, you have another opportunity in a short while.

    ArianeSpace are launching their newly updated Vega-C rocket for the first time. The stream should start in ten minutes.

    Watch here:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mgxx3A2FIQ8

    Ta muchly. Brief hold, but not long - countdonw restarting at 1413 BST (I think?).
This discussion has been closed.