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Sunak just edging it at the moment in the betting – politicalbetting.com
Sunak just edging it at the moment in the betting – politicalbetting.com
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Sunak just edging it at the moment in the betting – politicalbetting.com
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Shame TT is languishing
I'm not paying to read the Telegraph, but it seems from the headline that they've ruled out Truss and Tugendhat as frontrunners?
"Badenoch, Mordaunt or Sunak? Telegraph readers argue the case for Tory leadership frontrunners"
Edit: Also, I want some more winnings to soften the blow if we do end up with Truss as PM!
12ft.io gets you past the paywall
Edit: poll - https://cf-particle-html.eip.telegraph.co.uk/d4cfda88-97d1-4ee8-a823-41f90f94450b.html (you have to vote to see the results, I think)
Truss on 9%. Below Braverman on 10%
If one of them turned out to be the overwhelming choice among the MPs wouldn't it be uncomfortable if it was reversed by the members?
Nadhim Zahawi today ... https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1547119979316781063
Until the editors and owners see the whites of their eyes and have to make a call it’s hard to tell.
The mail currently clearly has the hump with Sunak and I would guess that if it’s Sunak/Truss then it will urge readers to select Maggie, sorry, Truss but I guess that the telegraph and times would go Sunak.
So again depending on the final pairing the press will have quite a sway I think.
I fear though that Truss will make it and the next election will be lost as I find she comes across too robotic and hard and not warm and engaging which is probably quite vital if hard things need to be done before things get better. Also needs a clear-out of the JRM’s and Nads of the party….
She is getting endorsements through regularly on the Tory right - IDS and Francois today, JRM and Nadine yesterday. She is building up a following and she’s probably transfer friendly from Suella and Kemi.
Edit: also, if it DOES come down to Rishi lending votes to a candidate to get the preferred opponent, he’ll fancy his chances more against Liz than Penny IMHO.
There are definitely large pockets of closet racism dotted around the country. Usually in very white areas where there is little contact with, or experience of, black or ethnic people.
Many of those with racist views know better than to express those views too openly, and I expect that adds to their feelings of threat and alienation.
It slips out from time to time though, like the woman whose house we went to look at to potentially buy who whispered to us that it was a nice area with 'no blacks or asians nearby'.
Sure, it's an anecdote but not an isolated one.
I should just add re racism and Leave, that I fully acknowledge that the majority of those who voted leave, and certainly those on here, are not racist.
The Truss would appear to be the value bet to this uninformed Labourite.
2.82 Rishi Sunak 35%
3.1 Penny Mordaunt 32%
4.5 Liz Truss 22%
16.5 Kemi Badenoch 6%
30 Tom Tugendhat
75 Jeremy Hunt
180 Suella Braverman
250 Nadhim Zahawi
300 Dominic Raab
There's a chance he might turn it around in the hustings, or the other finalist might implode, so that seems reasonable.
France 6.5%
Spain 10%
Germany 7.6%
My own view is that the 'woke' thing gained momentum because of the obvious racism and xenophobia apparent around the time of Brexit. Similarly with the election of Trump. It was the response of the left following its electoral failures. Suddenly people were thinking: "right, we've got to crack down on hate crime and xenophobia because everything we tried before failed". And so we ended up with overwhelming support for BLM and the trashing of statues 4 years later, and the cancellation of people who were considered to be vaguely racist or xenophobic. As a result the Faragist right, believing that they had waltzed to victory and the future was theirs; were ultimately ruined; to the point where the Centophah could be trashed and the vote leave government were terrified to do anything. Its elderly supporters could only huff and puff in wetherspoons and gradually die out; whilst the left exerted control of the entire media, as well as all the main political parties, with the tories ultimately co-opting a large part of its agenda.
I think Badenoch is a very exciting candidate, because she represents a kind of resolution to all of the above. Clearly anti racist and also clearly anti woke. But of course, this should not be the only factor in deciding on who is PM.
Or we can have a Sunak or Badenoch and reclaim the modernising zeal we had under Cameron and before him Blair.
@ Anthony Attah
"My vote would be for Rishi Sunak. He is well organised, cares for the common man (furlough scheme), taxes those with broad shoulders (current taxes are quite high by usual standards) and is following the Ken Clarke model of taxing the rich to balance the books and then reducing the taxes.
"Would we have this or the George Osborne model which hollowed out our most essential services?"
If it turns out that Rishi was genuinely arguing that Ukraine couldn’t win so we shouldn’t spend more money arming them - rather than simply playing the role of Devil’s advocate over spending in a Cabinet meeting - then his slick campaign to present himself as inevitable could blow up faster than a Russian weapons store.
Where's that membership form for the lib dems....
I'd have thought Tugendhat and Mordaunt would pick up more Hunt than Zahawi with the others being the other way round and Sunak being a mix.
Smarkets analyst model:
Hunt 25
Zahawi 30
Braverman 31 r2 (5 Zahawi/Hunt)
Badenoch 33 r2 (4 Zahawi/Hunt) r3 (5 Braverman)
Tugendhat 41 r2 (9 Hunt/Zahawi) r3 (7 Braverman) r4 (7 Badenoch)
Truss 46 r2 (9 Zahawi/Hunt) r3 (7 Braverman) r4 (11 Badenoch) r5 (13 Tugendhat)
Mordaunt 56 r2 (11 Hunt/Zahawi) r3 (10 Braverman) r4 (14 Badenoch) r5 (28 Tugendhat)
Sunak 96 r2 (19 Hunt & Zahawi) r3 (7 Braverman) r4 (10 Badenoch) r5 (23 Tugendhat)
As I've said for the past two years since COVID, this is unsustainable and the primary reason for our poor economic outlook. Too much money is going from productive working age people into the hands of the already wealthy old. It's not only a huge disincentive to work, it's also economically unsound to hand millionaire pensioners a huge whack of government subsidy with lower taxes, state pension benefits and defined benefit pension schemes which are ultimately paid out of today's productivity (resulting in lower pay, investment and dividends for companies).
Once again no one in the country is even close to having this discussion around how we fund retirement and why we seem to be giving very wealthy people with high incomes an additional £10k per year in state pension benefits. If someone suggested that working age people on the same income should get that benefit they'd be laughed out of the room.
Even among the 8 candidates no one seems to be brave enough to talk about it and ultimately Labour seem to be in exactly the same boat and can't bring themselves to raise this subject either. For Labour it seems mad because there's probably a lot of votes in it for them to address the generational imbalance in wealth and general prosperity. For the Tories it's probably a bit more difficult as so many of their voters are over 65 and wealthy but that doesn't mean it can be ignored by the 8 candidates.
We have had a big influx of MPs from RW seats who have the distinction of not trying to become a MP from Day 1 of Primary School. Conversely, a lot of the old guard Tories were chucked out in 2019.
Looking at Sunak's list, he doesn't seem to be doing that well amongst this new breed of Tory MP. That may change but it may also reflect a realisation his background / character won't go down that well with their voters.
(TBF, Truss probably wouldn't either).
Some people voted Leave because they wanted migrants from the rest of the world (like eg Asians) being treated the same as Europeans.
Many, many people voted Remain because they were comfortable with immigration coming from white Europe, and didn't want more immigration coming from the rest of the world instead.
The terrible idea that its OK if a German or an Italian comes over via the EU, but they don't want any more Pakistanis, so vote Remain, was more common than you accept.
People are complicated and there were both racists and anti-racists on both sides.
Typical leaver
Rishi Sunak will turn a deaf ear to SNP ploys that “pit communities against each other” as he signalled he would abandon the “muscular unionism” strategy if he becomes prime minister.
The former chancellor, who is the early frontrunner to replace Boris Johnson, failed to mention the Union once during his campaign launch yesterday, raising eyebrows among Scottish Conservatives.
€
Times
That would really shake things up. There'd be 100+ votes available to re-distribute.
In December of 2006, 45% of white Democrats and 41% of white Republicans reported that they knew someone they considered racist. By June of 2015, this figure increased to 64% among white Democrats, while remaining at a steady 41% among white Republicans. No increases were observed for any of the nonwhite Democrat groups. In fact, what (statistically insignificant) change occurred among Black (52.7% to 47.2%) and Hispanic (41.1% to 33.8%) Democrats were actually in the opposite direction.
And if you watch him chairing his committee he could teach Starmer a thing or 2 about effective prosecution
It seems we get pmq today, seems too good to be true
I think that if a multi racial society is to actually succeed, there needs to be a bit more realism about our human flaws. You also need to tackle racism not just by white people, but between other racial groups. There is not much sign of this type of thinking taking place on the left, it will probably have to come from the political right.
(edited)
But that doesn't, for example, remove the question of whether we develop a healthier, or a more toxic nationalism.
The issue is that Bozo is correct he is just about the only person able to sell the Tory party to both their safe southern seats and the Red Wall at the same time. Everyone else will need to decide how important each group is to the parties future prospects and target appropriately.
And remember we already have Cabinet ministers pretending that a replacement building is levelling up. It isn't and everyone can see through it.
Tory leadership contender Nadhim Zahawi tells LBC he would "certainly" offer Boris Johnson a job if he wanted to be part of his cabinet.
https://twitter.com/LBCNews/status/1547115982522650625
For them skin colour was irrelevant - the issue was their appearance in jobs they hoped they might have got.
Penny on 30.
Truss 24.
Tugendhat 20.
Badenoch 19.
Penny Mordaunt launches her pitch for the Tory leadership with a promise to give every family a 'childcare budget' as a survey suggests she would beat every other contender
She wants to deliver 'greater choice' for families
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/penny-mordaunt-favourite-among-tory-grass-roots-poll-shows-rlhsft637
.@KemiBadenoch has the integrity and competency to restore trust in the Conservative party and connect it to real issues within the community. She has my wholehearted support for Prime Minister
https://twitter.com/sebcoe/status/1547113393106173952
Children that grow up in a mixed race environment, without racist parents or adult influences, won't "naturally" be racist, because the very concept would be alien to them. If all your life you've had white, brown and yellow skinned friends then the idea of racism should be as absurd as being "naturally" discriminatory against people who have yellow, brown or red hair.
Blowing someone up at the membership vote stage, leaves the members with no choice.
On the wider point, it does appear that Sunak is less popular with the membership than the MPs. Will the MPs realise this and knock him out early, or will they instead try and engineer someone like Hunt to go against him?
Also cue a lot of people on working tax credits currently doing a few hours "childcare" as their source of income.
It's a significant lead, but a large number of MPs are keeping their options open for now.
Essentially you are calling me a liar. If you think I am lying why not just say so clearly and distinctly?
Countries with the highest number of detected cases so far:
Spain: 2447
UK: 1735
Germany: 1694
US: 929
France: 721
Netherlands: 503
Portugal: 473
Canada: 433
Italy: 292
https://twitter.com/kakape/status/1547136918953070592
On the other hand, we actually know very little, as not a single vote has yet been cast.
What larks.
All racists voted leave.
Not all leave voters are racist (I'd say the majority).
Its not difficult. Yet the majority of leave winners don't seem willing to admit that millions of their fellow leavers voted so because they disliked people who weren't them.
https://twitter.com/KayBurley/status/1547125547976769536
Kay: Would you accept a cabinet post from Rishi Sunak?
Jacob Rees-Mogg: No of course not... his disloyalty means I could not possibly support him....
Many people, including some on this site, were making pro-Remain arguments at the time that Leave would mean increased immigration from outside Europe and that free movement was good since it only applied to Europeans. That was a racist argument, and yet you have claimed "all the bigots voted Leave".
Its bollocks. Its also as someone else said, "Jews don't count" bollocks too.
If you said that some people who voted Leave did so for racist reasons, then that would be true, as too did some who voted Remain. But to say "all" Leave voters were racist, or "all" racists voted Leave is complete hogwash.
Young children though, are largely free of that. They accept the world as it is. My son doesn't notice that some of his friends at playgroup are not white, it just doesn't register any more than them having a differnt hair colour. He doesn't register that it's in any way unusual that one of his uncles lives with another uncle, rather than an aunt. We learn these things through others, through the media and - of course - through family and friends, I guess.
Edit: which is, of course, your point
*call them unconscious biases, maybe
"Racist" covers skin colour, yes. But as I said its far wider than that. Its fear of the "other". Anyone who isn't me. Its bigotry, prejudice, jingoism, racism - depends on the person and the other.
My best case of this was being harangued on Facebook by the mayor denouncing me as someone not born there, not from there, who would never understand the town and its history and its people so would be better to "go home" to Rochdale (where I am not originally from...).
One white man telling another white man to go home. Because not from there. The Iman at the mosque saw it and understood perfectly - bigotry and prejudice against outsiders is all-encompassing even if it isn't aimed at you.
The Tories have the opportunity to bring that back, to be a modern party leading a modern country. Or alternately go nasty and insular.
@amolrajan @nadhimzahawi exchange:
Q: You trusted Boris Johnson enough to be his Chancellor, yet 24 hrs later you effectively called on him to quit. What does that say about your judgement?
A; 'I'll tell you what it says: I put country first."
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1547111472307773440
If he voted Leave because of the first hand racism he had been on the receiving end of from Eastern European immigrants, would that make him racist? I think not.
God help us all.
Voters aren't rational. My Dad for instances fits into a category that I believe is not insignificant. He is right of Atilla the Hun and his main driver for voting leave was because there were too many blacks here. Trying to explain to him that leaving will cut down on white immigration from the EU and possibly greater immigration from countries where their skin is a darker colour was like banging your head against a brick wall.
It would be interesting to know what the level of racism is in the UK. It is clearly much much better than it used to be and I agree with @Casino_Royale (on the previous thread) re racisms (and I assume misogyny) in the Tory party is probably not an issue these days, but I would like to end on a 2nd anecdote. In the late 60s I worked in a factory during my school holidays. The guys on the shop floor were as racist as they came. But there were a group of Asians who worked there also and they were OK! It was only the Asians they didn't know who apparently lived 30 to house in dirty conditions. The ones they knew were all fine. Funny that. Similarly with Thatcher. To many men who admired her, she was one of us, while their own good lady's role was washing up and preparing meals. Irrational I know.
Many/most(?) voters are not like the people who post here.
I spoke to literally hundreds of people during that campaign. Who sang the same jingoistic tune. It is lived experience. For you to call this "bollocks" is to say that I am lying. Making it up, or now "lying to myself".
I was there having those conversations. You was not. So you have no clue what happened, yet can arrogantly tell me what really happened (that these did not happen but I have imagined them having been "self-radicalised".)
Silly boy. You are so conceited you almost sound like HY.
Is there something in the Wallace rumours? Feels he is flirting around it a bit.
"Members play an active role in the Party, can attend our annual Conference and receive voting rights in Party elections after 3 months of Membership. "
How different is that from living in a multicultural city and growing up with all races? It’s huge.
I don’t think most people are that nasty generally. In person most people are warm and friendly to almost anyone else. Something like Brexit and the mass immigration from Eastern Europe changing the characters of people’s towns (such as the town my dad grew up) cause tensions on a wider scale. It’s also easy for lies and simplistic arguments to be made.
‘You can’t see your go because of all the foreigners’
‘Foreigners get first dibs on council housing’
And so on.
Sometimes its even true.
For what it’s worth I think many more leave voters were a lot more sophisticated than @RochdalePioneers believes. There were lots of reasons to vote to leave. I detested the lack of proper democracy in the EU. The pointless two locations. For years not getting accounts signed off.
But I still voted remain, as broadly I thought it in the nations best interests. I still do.
But probably some of them had higher motives. Let's stop being judgemental.