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Sunak just edging it at the moment in the betting – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited July 2022 in General
imageSunak just edging it at the moment in the betting – politicalbetting.com

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  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Not Truss is the most important outcome

    Shame TT is languishing
  • https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/07/12/badenoch-mordaunt-sunaktelegraph-readers-argue-case-tory-leadership/

    I'm not paying to read the Telegraph, but it seems from the headline that they've ruled out Truss and Tugendhat as frontrunners?

    "Badenoch, Mordaunt or Sunak? Telegraph readers argue the case for Tory leadership frontrunners"
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    FPT:

    What is fascinating about this leadership election is the sheer spread of candidates and outlooks and positions.

    At one extreme a vision of a fictional past led by Braverman. Break poor people on the wheel. Tax cuts for decent people. Put the gayers and the trannies and the haters back in their box where decent people can look down on them.

    At the other extreme a vision of a dynamic future led by Badenoch. 2020s Britain as personified by a female black migrant with braided hair and a clear vision for how to respect people who who they are without having to harang or belittle like equivalent Labour people do.

    What is extraordinary is that half the field are BAME, half are women and two are both. Sorry Labour Party, but if this doesn't explode your "we are the party of modern representative politics", nothing will.

    It looks as if we will have the first ethnic PM or third woman PM ( all conservatives )

    I think Labour's problem is the unions. When it comes to election planning it becomes a beauty contest - who can attract the most cash from their trade union. And too many unions are very white male and wealthy. Yes I know the Tories are heavily that as well, but they get outside funding. Labour candidates need cash and that cash comes from unions who advance their own people.

    Its not as if the first BAME PM and/or third female PM will make a positive difference to the Tories if it is Zahawi or Braverman or Truss. Pick a mentalist, or better still continuity Boris and the party is doomed. But what opportunity there is within the selection process to actually have choice!

    I still want the party removed from power, regardless of who wins. But a Badenoch government excites me - and I literally didn't know who she was until yesterday - because she would modernise the political discourse massively.

    Brexit was - in a significant part - a vote to send the foreigners home, to remove the outsiders who had brought the country down. And here is Olukemi Olufunto Adegoke, who returned to her native UK from her ancestral Nigeria age 16 to escape the situation over there, did A-Levels whilst working in McDonalds, before going on to work in IT and Finance. Now Kemi Badenoch she represents everything that is the *opposite* of the nasty insular whiter Britain that so many voted for. And don't tell this leave voter that they didn't. They bloody did.
    It does raise an interesting question though as to how come the Conservative Party, without all female/minority shortlists have been able to get so many women and minorities right to the very top of the party (and not just padding out the backbenches) . . . but how come the union leaders are all '[white] male and wealthy'.

    Why are the unions so unrepresentative?

    PS "they didn't".
    Door after door after door after door. Talking to white voters in an almost entirely white British area being told there are too many foreigners. As I said - a "nasty insular whiter Britain". You can say that I didn't have those appalling conversations all you like. I did. And there is reams of evidence and reportage from the time backing that up.

    Its just that people don't want to be associated with racism and their petty bigotry and jingoist friends. I can understand that. Its not so much that people are racist - reality is far more subtle than that. Its that they dislike the other. Whether that is Europeans or non-whites or people not born in Yorkshire or people who like ballet or whatever. I - like you - am a white man who voted to leave. I - like you did not do so for any of the reasons I just listed. We are not racist or bigoted or bitter. But all the people who are voted leave. That doesn't mean that all leavers are racist, just that all racists voted leave. Why is that hard to grasp?
    It's not hard to grasp that some people are racists, but they are a minority. If only racists had voted Leave then Remain would have won a mammoth landslide.
    Tbf to RP he's very clearly said not all leavers are racist.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited July 2022
    Sunak should edge it for the MPs vote, a membership vote against Truss or Mordaunt could be a completely different story however
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,257
    edited July 2022
    Just sold a bit of Sunak and bought a bit of Truss. Still green on both, but Truss looks reasonable value to me while Sunak a bit short, perhaps.

    Edit: Also, I want some more winnings to soften the blow if we do end up with Truss as PM!
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,257
    edited July 2022

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/07/12/badenoch-mordaunt-sunaktelegraph-readers-argue-case-tory-leadership/

    I'm not paying to read the Telegraph, but it seems from the headline that they've ruled out Truss and Tugendhat as frontrunners?

    "Badenoch, Mordaunt or Sunak? Telegraph readers argue the case for Tory leadership frontrunners"

    Frontrunnners based on a reader (voodoo) poll.

    12ft.io gets you past the paywall

    Edit: poll - https://cf-particle-html.eip.telegraph.co.uk/d4cfda88-97d1-4ee8-a823-41f90f94450b.html (you have to vote to see the results, I think)
    Truss on 9%. Below Braverman on 10% :lol: - says something about DT readers, although Im not sure why they dislike Truss
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    HYUFD said:

    Sunak should edge it for the MPs vote, a membership vote against Truss or Mordaunt could be a completely different story however

    Which of Sunak and Mordaunt do you favour?

    If one of them turned out to be the overwhelming choice among the MPs wouldn't it be uncomfortable if it was reversed by the members?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    Nadhim Zahawi to Boris Johnson last Thursday: "The country deserves a government .. which acts with integrity ... prime minister go now."

    Nadhim Zahawi today ...
    https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1547119979316781063
  • boulayboulay Posts: 3,773
    HYUFD said:

    Sunak should edge it for the MPs vote, a membership vote against Truss or Mordaunt could be a completely different story however

    I think quite a lot will depend on how the “Tory press” see things when it gets down to the last two.

    Until the editors and owners see the whites of their eyes and have to make a call it’s hard to tell.

    The mail currently clearly has the hump with Sunak and I would guess that if it’s Sunak/Truss then it will urge readers to select Maggie, sorry, Truss but I guess that the telegraph and times would go Sunak.

    So again depending on the final pairing the press will have quite a sway I think.

    I fear though that Truss will make it and the next election will be lost as I find she comes across too robotic and hard and not warm and engaging which is probably quite vital if hard things need to be done before things get better. Also needs a clear-out of the JRM’s and Nads of the party….
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,414
    edited July 2022
    Selebian said:

    Just sold a bit of Sunak and bought a bit of Truss. Still green on both, but Truss looks reasonable value to me while Sunak a bit short, perhaps.

    Edit: Also, I want some more winnings to soften the blow if we do end up with Truss as PM!

    Liz is definite value. The contest at the moment is basically between Penny and Liz for second place - if Liz can make it, she has to be favourite against Sunak in the membership ballot.

    She is getting endorsements through regularly on the Tory right - IDS and Francois today, JRM and Nadine yesterday. She is building up a following and she’s probably transfer friendly from Suella and Kemi.

    Edit: also, if it DOES come down to Rishi lending votes to a candidate to get the preferred opponent, he’ll fancy his chances more against Liz than Penny IMHO.

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,403
    I can't see how there are sufficient non-swivel eyed Tory MPs to get Rishi Rich and Penny-for-your-Thoughts into the final two.

    The Truss would appear to be the value bet to this uninformed Labourite.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    I can't see how there are sufficient non-swivel eyed Tory MPs to get Rishi Rich and Penny-for-your-Thoughts into the final two.

    The Truss would appear to be the value bet to this uninformed Labourite.

    She is someone who I don't want to win, so chances are she will.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,934
    Betfair's next PM prices:-

    2.82 Rishi Sunak 35%
    3.1 Penny Mordaunt 32%
    4.5 Liz Truss 22%
    16.5 Kemi Badenoch 6%
    30 Tom Tugendhat
    75 Jeremy Hunt
    180 Suella Braverman
    250 Nadhim Zahawi
    300 Dominic Raab
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    HYUFD said:

    Sunak should edge it for the MPs vote, a membership vote against Truss or Mordaunt could be a completely different story however

    It looks almost inevitable that Sunak will be one of the final two, which means the betting gives him a one-in-three chance of winning the member's vote.

    There's a chance he might turn it around in the hustings, or the other finalist might implode, so that seems reasonable.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Inflation:

    France 6.5%
    Spain 10%
    Germany 7.6%
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 4,748
    On the subject of racism, xenophobia and brexit...

    My own view is that the 'woke' thing gained momentum because of the obvious racism and xenophobia apparent around the time of Brexit. Similarly with the election of Trump. It was the response of the left following its electoral failures. Suddenly people were thinking: "right, we've got to crack down on hate crime and xenophobia because everything we tried before failed". And so we ended up with overwhelming support for BLM and the trashing of statues 4 years later, and the cancellation of people who were considered to be vaguely racist or xenophobic. As a result the Faragist right, believing that they had waltzed to victory and the future was theirs; were ultimately ruined; to the point where the Centophah could be trashed and the vote leave government were terrified to do anything. Its elderly supporters could only huff and puff in wetherspoons and gradually die out; whilst the left exerted control of the entire media, as well as all the main political parties, with the tories ultimately co-opting a large part of its agenda.

    I think Badenoch is a very exciting candidate, because she represents a kind of resolution to all of the above. Clearly anti racist and also clearly anti woke. But of course, this should not be the only factor in deciding on who is PM.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,015

    FPT:

    What is fascinating about this leadership election is the sheer spread of candidates and outlooks and positions.

    At one extreme a vision of a fictional past led by Braverman. Break poor people on the wheel. Tax cuts for decent people. Put the gayers and the trannies and the haters back in their box where decent people can look down on them.

    At the other extreme a vision of a dynamic future led by Badenoch. 2020s Britain as personified by a female black migrant with braided hair and a clear vision for how to respect people who who they are without having to harang or belittle like equivalent Labour people do.

    What is extraordinary is that half the field are BAME, half are women and two are both. Sorry Labour Party, but if this doesn't explode your "we are the party of modern representative politics", nothing will.

    It looks as if we will have the first ethnic PM or third woman PM ( all conservatives )

    I think Labour's problem is the unions. When it comes to election planning it becomes a beauty contest - who can attract the most cash from their trade union. And too many unions are very white male and wealthy. Yes I know the Tories are heavily that as well, but they get outside funding. Labour candidates need cash and that cash comes from unions who advance their own people.

    Its not as if the first BAME PM and/or third female PM will make a positive difference to the Tories if it is Zahawi or Braverman or Truss. Pick a mentalist, or better still continuity Boris and the party is doomed. But what opportunity there is within the selection process to actually have choice!

    I still want the party removed from power, regardless of who wins. But a Badenoch government excites me - and I literally didn't know who she was until yesterday - because she would modernise the political discourse massively.

    Brexit was - in a significant part - a vote to send the foreigners home, to remove the outsiders who had brought the country down. And here is Olukemi Olufunto Adegoke, who returned to her native UK from her ancestral Nigeria age 16 to escape the situation over there, did A-Levels whilst working in McDonalds, before going on to work in IT and Finance. Now Kemi Badenoch she represents everything that is the *opposite* of the nasty insular whiter Britain that so many voted for. And don't tell this leave voter that they didn't. They bloody did.
    It does raise an interesting question though as to how come the Conservative Party, without all female/minority shortlists have been able to get so many women and minorities right to the very top of the party (and not just padding out the backbenches) . . . but how come the union leaders are all '[white] male and wealthy'.

    Why are the unions so unrepresentative?

    PS "they didn't".
    Door after door after door after door. Talking to white voters in an almost entirely white British area being told there are too many foreigners. As I said - a "nasty insular whiter Britain". You can say that I didn't have those appalling conversations all you like. I did. And there is reams of evidence and reportage from the time backing that up.

    Its just that people don't want to be associated with racism and their petty bigotry and jingoist friends. I can understand that. Its not so much that people are racist - reality is far more subtle than that. Its that they dislike the other. Whether that is Europeans or non-whites or people not born in Yorkshire or people who like ballet or whatever. I - like you - am a white man who voted to leave. I - like you did not do so for any of the reasons I just listed. We are not racist or bigoted or bitter. But all the people who are voted leave. That doesn't mean that all leavers are racist, just that all racists voted leave. Why is that hard to grasp?
    It's not hard to grasp that some people are racists, but they are a minority. If only racists had voted Leave then Remain would have won a mammoth landslide.
    Tbf to RP he's very clearly said not all leavers are racist.
    Not even a majority of leave voters are racist. But all the racists voted leave. And they have poisoned the well so that now we have this horrible insular us vs Yerp antagonism. As they get richer than us due to the decisions we have made after leaving the EU I fear this will get worse - with the wrong new Tory leader.

    Or we can have a Sunak or Badenoch and reclaim the modernising zeal we had under Cameron and before him Blair.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/07/12/badenoch-mordaunt-sunaktelegraph-readers-argue-case-tory-leadership/

    I'm not paying to read the Telegraph, but it seems from the headline that they've ruled out Truss and Tugendhat as frontrunners?

    "Badenoch, Mordaunt or Sunak? Telegraph readers argue the case for Tory leadership frontrunners"

    I will post this quote because although it's not likely to be 100% it sums up where TSE's beloved Osborne went wrong

    @ Anthony Attah

    "My vote would be for Rishi Sunak. He is well organised, cares for the common man (furlough scheme), taxes those with broad shoulders (current taxes are quite high by usual standards) and is following the Ken Clarke model of taxing the rich to balance the books and then reducing the taxes.

    "Would we have this or the George Osborne model which hollowed out our most essential services?"
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    It's going to Truss isn't it...yee gods.

    Where's that membership form for the lib dems....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,774
    IshmaelZ said:

    Not Truss is the most important outcome

    Shame TT is languishing

    I think TT is on his bike today.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,015

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/07/12/badenoch-mordaunt-sunaktelegraph-readers-argue-case-tory-leadership/

    I'm not paying to read the Telegraph, but it seems from the headline that they've ruled out Truss and Tugendhat as frontrunners?

    "Badenoch, Mordaunt or Sunak? Telegraph readers argue the case for Tory leadership frontrunners"

    Don't pay. Use the 12 foot ladder to peer over the paywall.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited July 2022

    I can't see how there are sufficient non-swivel eyed Tory MPs to get Rishi Rich and Penny-for-your-Thoughts into the final two.

    The Truss would appear to be the value bet to this uninformed Labourite.

    Handily the Smarkets guy model has everyone falling out at a seperate voting round, so all the transfers except Hunt & Zahawi can be neatly worked out.

    I'd have thought Tugendhat and Mordaunt would pick up more Hunt than Zahawi with the others being the other way round and Sunak being a mix.

    Smarkets analyst model:

    Hunt 25
    Zahawi 30
    Braverman 31 r2 (5 Zahawi/Hunt)
    Badenoch 33 r2 (4 Zahawi/Hunt) r3 (5 Braverman)
    Tugendhat 41 r2 (9 Hunt/Zahawi) r3 (7 Braverman) r4 (7 Badenoch)
    Truss 46 r2 (9 Zahawi/Hunt) r3 (7 Braverman) r4 (11 Badenoch) r5 (13 Tugendhat)
    Mordaunt 56 r2 (11 Hunt/Zahawi) r3 (10 Braverman) r4 (14 Badenoch) r5 (28 Tugendhat)
    Sunak 96 r2 (19 Hunt & Zahawi) r3 (7 Braverman) r4 (10 Badenoch) r5 (23 Tugendhat)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,584
    Scott_xP said:

    Nadhim Zahawi to Boris Johnson last Thursday: "The country deserves a government .. which acts with integrity ... prime minister go now."

    Nadhim Zahawi today ...
    https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1547119979316781063

    Amol Rajan gave him a good duffing on R4.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,458

    HYUFD said:

    Sunak should edge it for the MPs vote, a membership vote against Truss or Mordaunt could be a completely different story however

    It looks almost inevitable that Sunak will be one of the final two, which means the betting gives him a one-in-three chance of winning the member's vote.

    There's a chance he might turn it around in the hustings, or the other finalist might implode, so that seems reasonable.
    Implied probability of Sunak winning the members vote if he makes it to the final two based on current BF prices is 40%.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Selebian said:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/07/12/badenoch-mordaunt-sunaktelegraph-readers-argue-case-tory-leadership/

    I'm not paying to read the Telegraph, but it seems from the headline that they've ruled out Truss and Tugendhat as frontrunners?

    "Badenoch, Mordaunt or Sunak? Telegraph readers argue the case for Tory leadership frontrunners"

    Frontrunnners based on a reader (voodoo) poll.

    12ft.io gets you past the paywall

    Edit: poll - https://cf-particle-html.eip.telegraph.co.uk/d4cfda88-97d1-4ee8-a823-41f90f94450b.html (you have to vote to see the results, I think)
    Truss on 9%. Below Braverman on 10% :lol: - says something about DT readers, although Im not sure why they dislike Truss
    I could probably think of 300 reasons
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,403
    IshmaelZ said:

    Not Truss is the most important outcome

    Shame TT is languishing

    Tug-End makes Starmer look like Mr Exciting.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    One thing to remember on the Tory MP electorate is that it has undergone one of the most radical changes in British politics since the 2019 contest.

    We have had a big influx of MPs from RW seats who have the distinction of not trying to become a MP from Day 1 of Primary School. Conversely, a lot of the old guard Tories were chucked out in 2019.

    Looking at Sunak's list, he doesn't seem to be doing that well amongst this new breed of Tory MP. That may change but it may also reflect a realisation his background / character won't go down that well with their voters.

    (TBF, Truss probably wouldn't either).
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,156
    edited July 2022

    What is fascinating about this leadership election is the sheer spread of candidates and outlooks and positions.

    At one extreme a vision of a fictional past led by Braverman. Break poor people on the wheel. Tax cuts for decent people. Put the gayers and the trannies and the haters back in their box where decent people can look down on them.

    At the other extreme a vision of a dynamic future led by Badenoch. 2020s Britain as personified by a female black migrant with braided hair and a clear vision for how to respect people who who they are without having to harang or belittle like equivalent Labour people do.

    What is extraordinary is that half the field are BAME, half are women and two are both. Sorry Labour Party, but if this doesn't explode your "we are the party of modern representative politics", nothing will.

    It looks as if we will have the first ethnic PM or third woman PM ( all conservatives )

    I think Labour's problem is the unions. When it comes to election planning it becomes a beauty contest - who can attract the most cash from their trade union. And too many unions are very white male and wealthy. Yes I know the Tories are heavily that as well, but they get outside funding. Labour candidates need cash and that cash comes from unions who advance their own people.

    Its not as if the first BAME PM and/or third female PM will make a positive difference to the Tories if it is Zahawi or Braverman or Truss. Pick a mentalist, or better still continuity Boris and the party is doomed. But what opportunity there is within the selection process to actually have choice!

    I still want the party removed from power, regardless of who wins. But a Badenoch government excites me - and I literally didn't know who she was until yesterday - because she would modernise the political discourse massively.

    Brexit was - in a significant part - a vote to send the foreigners home, to remove the outsiders who had brought the country down. And here is Olukemi Olufunto Adegoke, who returned to her native UK from her ancestral Nigeria age 16 to escape the situation over there, did A-Levels whilst working in McDonalds, before going on to work in IT and Finance. Now Kemi Badenoch she represents everything that is the *opposite* of the nasty insular whiter Britain that so many voted for. And don't tell this leave voter that they didn't. They bloody did.
    It does raise an interesting question though as to how come the Conservative Party, without all female/minority shortlists have been able to get so many women and minorities right to the very top of the party (and not just padding out the backbenches) . . . but how come the union leaders are all '[white] male and wealthy'.

    Why are the unions so unrepresentative?

    PS "they didn't".
    Door after door after door after door. Talking to white voters in an almost entirely white British area being told there are too many foreigners. As I said - a "nasty insular whiter Britain". You can say that I didn't have those appalling conversations all you like. I did. And there is reams of evidence and reportage from the time backing that up.

    Its just that people don't want to be associated with racism and their petty bigotry and jingoist friends. I can understand that. Its not so much that people are racist - reality is far more subtle than that. Its that they dislike the other. Whether that is Europeans or non-whites or people not born in Yorkshire or people who like ballet or whatever. I - like you - am a white man who voted to leave. I - like you did not do so for any of the reasons I just listed. We are not racist or bigoted or bitter. But all the people who are voted leave. That doesn't mean that all leavers are racist, just that all racists voted leave. Why is that hard to grasp?
    Because it isn't true?

    I know of Remain voters who voted Remain because they were comfortable with free movement of Europeans filling labour voids but not Commonwealth/whole world.

    Your anecdote assumes it was bigotry that was meant rather than volume.
    My anecdote says that all the bigots voted leave but not everyone who voted leave is a bigot. Its not that difficult to grasp. Unless you are so closed-minded as to think that what you think is what all right-minded people think because you are always right.
    But your anecdote is bollocks.

    Some people voted Leave because they wanted migrants from the rest of the world (like eg Asians) being treated the same as Europeans.

    Many, many people voted Remain because they were comfortable with immigration coming from white Europe, and didn't want more immigration coming from the rest of the world instead.

    The terrible idea that its OK if a German or an Italian comes over via the EU, but they don't want any more Pakistanis, so vote Remain, was more common than you accept.

    People are complicated and there were both racists and anti-racists on both sides.
  • Didn’t Jolyon tweet something appallingly racist the other day?

    Typical leaver
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,774
    darkage said:

    On the subject of racism, xenophobia and brexit...

    My own view is that the 'woke' thing gained momentum because of the obvious racism and xenophobia apparent around the time of Brexit. Similarly with the election of Trump. It was the response of the left following its electoral failures. Suddenly people were thinking: "right, we've got to crack down on hate crime and xenophobia because everything we tried before failed". And so we ended up with overwhelming support for BLM and the trashing of statues 4 years later, and the cancellation of people who were considered to be vaguely racist or xenophobic. As a result the Faragist right, believing that they had waltzed to victory and the future was theirs; were ultimately ruined; to the point where the Centophah could be trashed and the vote leave government were terrified to do anything. Its elderly supporters could only huff and puff in wetherspoons and gradually die out; whilst the left exerted control of the entire media, as well as all the main political parties, with the tories ultimately co-opting a large part of its agenda.

    I think Badenoch is a very exciting candidate, because she represents a kind of resolution to all of the above. Clearly anti racist and also clearly anti woke. But of course, this should not be the only factor in deciding on who is PM.

    A lot in this. Perhaps Badenoch would make a very good HS. She would certainly be a vast improvement on the current incumbent.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Sunak’s leadership launch fails to mention Union

    Rishi Sunak will turn a deaf ear to SNP ploys that “pit communities against each other” as he signalled he would abandon the “muscular unionism” strategy if he becomes prime minister.

    The former chancellor, who is the early frontrunner to replace Boris Johnson, failed to mention the Union once during his campaign launch yesterday, raising eyebrows among Scottish Conservatives.


    Times
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,414

    It's going to Truss isn't it...yee gods.

    Where's that membership form for the lib dems....

    The only positive I can take from this is it would push me into definitely supporting Starmer which would at least resolve the conflict of loyalties Im currently feeling right now.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sunak should edge it for the MPs vote, a membership vote against Truss or Mordaunt could be a completely different story however

    It looks almost inevitable that Sunak will be one of the final two, which means the betting gives him a one-in-three chance of winning the member's vote.

    There's a chance he might turn it around in the hustings, or the other finalist might implode, so that seems reasonable.
    I want to hear more details of what Ben Wallace has to say about Sunak. Apparently they had a row about Ukraine spending.

    If it turns out that Rishi was genuinely arguing that Ukraine couldn’t win so we shouldn’t spend more money arming them - rather than simply playing the role of Devil’s advocate over spending in a Cabinet meeting - then his slick campaign to present himself as inevitable could blow up faster than a Russian weapons store.
    Ditto. There seems to be more than one report suggesting Wallace is set to torpedo Sunak. Personally, if he is going to do it, I think he will wait until it gets to the members' vote to have the maximum impact.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    There's an outside chance 4 could miss the cut today.
    That would really shake things up. There'd be 100+ votes available to re-distribute.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Didn’t Jolyon tweet something appallingly racist the other day?

    Typical leaver

    Yes, certain parts of Twitter are having a breakdown over the diversity of the candidates. It’s all rather amusing.
  • ChelyabinskChelyabinsk Posts: 488
    edited July 2022
    darkage said:

    On the subject of racism, xenophobia and brexit...

    My own view is that the 'woke' thing gained momentum because of the obvious racism and xenophobia apparent around the time of Brexit. Similarly with the election of Trump. It was the response of the left following its electoral failures. Suddenly people were thinking: "right, we've got to crack down on hate crime and xenophobia because everything we tried before failed".

    No statistics for the UK, but the US left discovered they were surrounded by racism and xenophobia before Trump announced his candidacy in mid-June 2015 (though strangely, only the white left and not Black and Hispanic people)

    In December of 2006, 45% of white Democrats and 41% of white Republicans reported that they knew someone they considered racist. By June of 2015, this figure increased to 64% among white Democrats, while remaining at a steady 41% among white Republicans. No increases were observed for any of the nonwhite Democrat groups. In fact, what (statistically insignificant) change occurred among Black (52.7% to 47.2%) and Hispanic (41.1% to 33.8%) Democrats were actually in the opposite direction.
  • Is "All the racists voted Leave" a chapter in Jews Don't Count?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    Not Truss is the most important outcome

    Shame TT is languishing

    Tug-End makes Starmer look like Mr Exciting.
    Not so

    And if you watch him chairing his committee he could teach Starmer a thing or 2 about effective prosecution

    It seems we get pmq today, seems too good to be true
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 651

    It's going to Truss isn't it...yee gods.

    Where's that membership form for the lib dems....

    Truss can show you one ... :smile:
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 4,748
    edited July 2022

    Re the racism discussion FPT:

    There are definitely large pockets of closet racism dotted around the country. Usually in very white areas where there is little contact with, or experience of, black or ethnic people.

    Many of those with racist views know better than to express those views too openly, and I expect that adds to their feelings of threat and alienation.

    It slips out from time to time though, like the woman whose house we went to look at to potentially buy who whispered to us that it was a nice area with 'no blacks or asians nearby'.

    Sure, it's an anecdote but not an isolated one.

    I should just add re racism and Leave, that I fully acknowledge that the majority of those who voted leave, and certainly those on here, are not racist.

    I think racism is universal, there are just varying levels of self-awareness of it. We are probably just wired to make judgements about people based on physical characteristics and it is unlikely that we can actually be rewired to work a different way. We can and should try though.

    I think that if a multi racial society is to actually succeed, there needs to be a bit more realism about our human flaws. You also need to tackle racism not just by white people, but between other racial groups. There is not much sign of this type of thinking taking place on the left, it will probably have to come from the political right.

    (edited)



  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,584
    edited July 2022
    darkage said:

    On the subject of racism, xenophobia and brexit...

    My own view is that the 'woke' thing gained momentum because of the obvious racism and xenophobia apparent around the time of Brexit. Similarly with the election of Trump. It was the response of the left following its electoral failures. Suddenly people were thinking: "right, we've got to crack down on hate crime and xenophobia because everything we tried before failed". And so we ended up with overwhelming support for BLM and the trashing of statues 4 years later, and the cancellation of people who were considered to be vaguely racist or xenophobic. As a result the Faragist right, believing that they had waltzed to victory and the future was theirs; were ultimately ruined; to the point where the Centophah could be trashed and the vote leave government were terrified to do anything. Its elderly supporters could only huff and puff in wetherspoons and gradually die out; whilst the left exerted control of the entire media, as well as all the main political parties, with the tories ultimately co-opting a large part of its agenda.

    I think Badenoch is a very exciting candidate, because she represents a kind of resolution to all of the above. Clearly anti racist and also clearly anti woke. But of course, this should not be the only factor in deciding on who is PM.

    I'm not convinced it's a resolution of all the above - but it does seem that mainstream UK politics are slowly moving beyond race, which is undoubtedly a good thing.
    But that doesn't, for example, remove the question of whether we develop a healthier, or a more toxic nationalism.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,572
    FROM PREVIOUS THREAD

    This Thread has been eliminated

    If the previous thread had merely "resigned", Johnson style, it would still be going.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    algarkirk said:

    Selebian said:

    Just sold a bit of Sunak and bought a bit of Truss. Still green on both, but Truss looks reasonable value to me while Sunak a bit short, perhaps.

    Edit: Also, I want some more winnings to soften the blow if we do end up with Truss as PM!

    Liz is definite value. The contest at the moment is basically between Penny and Liz for second place - if Liz can make it, she has to be favourite against Sunak in the membership ballot.

    She is getting endorsements through regularly on the Tory right - IDS and Francois today, JRM and Nadine yesterday. She is building up a following and she’s probably transfer friendly from Suella and Kemi.

    Edit: also, if it DOES come down to Rishi lending votes to a candidate to get the preferred opponent, he’ll fancy his chances more against Liz than Penny IMHO.

    When you look at who endorses Liz Truss it seems more and more vital that the other MPs ensure she gets nowhere near the membership. They need to win back the voters who have switched to Labour. Continuity Boris supported by Tory extreme lightweights won't do.

    They also need to keep their southern seats who could tend towards the Lib Dems.

    The issue is that Bozo is correct he is just about the only person able to sell the Tory party to both their safe southern seats and the Red Wall at the same time. Everyone else will need to decide how important each group is to the parties future prospects and target appropriately.

    And remember we already have Cabinet ministers pretending that a replacement building is levelling up. It isn't and everyone can see through it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,774

    Sunak’s leadership launch fails to mention Union

    Rishi Sunak will turn a deaf ear to SNP ploys that “pit communities against each other” as he signalled he would abandon the “muscular unionism” strategy if he becomes prime minister.

    The former chancellor, who is the early frontrunner to replace Boris Johnson, failed to mention the Union once during his campaign launch yesterday, raising eyebrows among Scottish Conservatives.


    Times

    I am pretty relaxed about that. I think that PM Rishi is going to be a lot more attractive to Scots than PM Boris ever was and even more so than he is now. Indeed pretty much all of the candidates would be a big improvement in that regard.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Here's hoping for another exit today:

    Tory leadership contender Nadhim Zahawi tells LBC he would "certainly" offer Boris Johnson a job if he wanted to be part of his cabinet.

    https://twitter.com/LBCNews/status/1547115982522650625
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,343

    What is fascinating about this leadership election is the sheer spread of candidates and outlooks and positions.

    At one extreme a vision of a fictional past led by Braverman. Break poor people on the wheel. Tax cuts for decent people. Put the gayers and the trannies and the haters back in their box where decent people can look down on them.

    At the other extreme a vision of a dynamic future led by Badenoch. 2020s Britain as personified by a female black migrant with braided hair and a clear vision for how to respect people who who they are without having to harang or belittle like equivalent Labour people do.

    What is extraordinary is that half the field are BAME, half are women and two are both. Sorry Labour Party, but if this doesn't explode your "we are the party of modern representative politics", nothing will.

    It looks as if we will have the first ethnic PM or third woman PM ( all conservatives )

    I think Labour's problem is the unions. When it comes to election planning it becomes a beauty contest - who can attract the most cash from their trade union. And too many unions are very white male and wealthy. Yes I know the Tories are heavily that as well, but they get outside funding. Labour candidates need cash and that cash comes from unions who advance their own people.

    Its not as if the first BAME PM and/or third female PM will make a positive difference to the Tories if it is Zahawi or Braverman or Truss. Pick a mentalist, or better still continuity Boris and the party is doomed. But what opportunity there is within the selection process to actually have choice!

    I still want the party removed from power, regardless of who wins. But a Badenoch government excites me - and I literally didn't know who she was until yesterday - because she would modernise the political discourse massively.

    Brexit was - in a significant part - a vote to send the foreigners home, to remove the outsiders who had brought the country down. And here is Olukemi Olufunto Adegoke, who returned to her native UK from her ancestral Nigeria age 16 to escape the situation over there, did A-Levels whilst working in McDonalds, before going on to work in IT and Finance. Now Kemi Badenoch she represents everything that is the *opposite* of the nasty insular whiter Britain that so many voted for. And don't tell this leave voter that they didn't. They bloody did.
    It does raise an interesting question though as to how come the Conservative Party, without all female/minority shortlists have been able to get so many women and minorities right to the very top of the party (and not just padding out the backbenches) . . . but how come the union leaders are all '[white] male and wealthy'.

    Why are the unions so unrepresentative?

    PS "they didn't".
    Door after door after door after door. Talking to white voters in an almost entirely white British area being told there are too many foreigners. As I said - a "nasty insular whiter Britain". You can say that I didn't have those appalling conversations all you like. I did. And there is reams of evidence and reportage from the time backing that up.

    Its just that people don't want to be associated with racism and their petty bigotry and jingoist friends. I can understand that. Its not so much that people are racist - reality is far more subtle than that. Its that they dislike the other. Whether that is Europeans or non-whites or people not born in Yorkshire or people who like ballet or whatever. I - like you - am a white man who voted to leave. I - like you did not do so for any of the reasons I just listed. We are not racist or bigoted or bitter. But all the people who are voted leave. That doesn't mean that all leavers are racist, just that all racists voted leave. Why is that hard to grasp?
    Because it isn't true?

    I know of Remain voters who voted Remain because they were comfortable with free movement of Europeans filling labour voids but not Commonwealth/whole world.

    Your anecdote assumes it was bigotry that was meant rather than volume.
    My anecdote says that all the bigots voted leave but not everyone who voted leave is a bigot. Its not that difficult to grasp. Unless you are so closed-minded as to think that what you think is what all right-minded people think because you are always right.
    But your anecdote is bollocks.

    Some people voted Leave because they wanted migrants from the rest of the world (like eg Asians) being treated the same as Europeans.

    Many, many people voted Remain because they were comfortable with immigration coming from white Europe, and didn't want more immigration coming from the rest of the world instead.

    The terrible idea that its OK if a German or an Italian comes over via the EU, but they don't want any more Pakistanis, so vote Remain, was more common than you accept.

    People are complicated and there were both racists and anti-racists on both sides.
    Yes. My Tanzanian friend who had to leave the UK is now legally back. IT bloke. The discrimination against non EU people (mostly non white) was dreadful.

  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    edited July 2022

    What is fascinating about this leadership election is the sheer spread of candidates and outlooks and positions.

    At one extreme a vision of a fictional past led by Braverman. Break poor people on the wheel. Tax cuts for decent people. Put the gayers and the trannies and the haters back in their box where decent people can look down on them.

    At the other extreme a vision of a dynamic future led by Badenoch. 2020s Britain as personified by a female black migrant with braided hair and a clear vision for how to respect people who who they are without having to harang or belittle like equivalent Labour people do.

    What is extraordinary is that half the field are BAME, half are women and two are both. Sorry Labour Party, but if this doesn't explode your "we are the party of modern representative politics", nothing will.

    It looks as if we will have the first ethnic PM or third woman PM ( all conservatives )

    I think Labour's problem is the unions. When it comes to election planning it becomes a beauty contest - who can attract the most cash from their trade union. And too many unions are very white male and wealthy. Yes I know the Tories are heavily that as well, but they get outside funding. Labour candidates need cash and that cash comes from unions who advance their own people.

    Its not as if the first BAME PM and/or third female PM will make a positive difference to the Tories if it is Zahawi or Braverman or Truss. Pick a mentalist, or better still continuity Boris and the party is doomed. But what opportunity there is within the selection process to actually have choice!

    I still want the party removed from power, regardless of who wins. But a Badenoch government excites me - and I literally didn't know who she was until yesterday - because she would modernise the political discourse massively.

    Brexit was - in a significant part - a vote to send the foreigners home, to remove the outsiders who had brought the country down. And here is Olukemi Olufunto Adegoke, who returned to her native UK from her ancestral Nigeria age 16 to escape the situation over there, did A-Levels whilst working in McDonalds, before going on to work in IT and Finance. Now Kemi Badenoch she represents everything that is the *opposite* of the nasty insular whiter Britain that so many voted for. And don't tell this leave voter that they didn't. They bloody did.
    It does raise an interesting question though as to how come the Conservative Party, without all female/minority shortlists have been able to get so many women and minorities right to the very top of the party (and not just padding out the backbenches) . . . but how come the union leaders are all '[white] male and wealthy'.

    Why are the unions so unrepresentative?

    PS "they didn't".
    Door after door after door after door. Talking to white voters in an almost entirely white British area being told there are too many foreigners. As I said - a "nasty insular whiter Britain". You can say that I didn't have those appalling conversations all you like. I did. And there is reams of evidence and reportage from the time backing that up.

    Its just that people don't want to be associated with racism and their petty bigotry and jingoist friends. I can understand that. Its not so much that people are racist - reality is far more subtle than that. Its that they dislike the other. Whether that is Europeans or non-whites or people not born in Yorkshire or people who like ballet or whatever. I - like you - am a white man who voted to leave. I - like you did not do so for any of the reasons I just listed. We are not racist or bigoted or bitter. But all the people who are voted leave. That doesn't mean that all leavers are racist, just that all racists voted leave. Why is that hard to grasp?
    Because it isn't true?

    I know of Remain voters who voted Remain because they were comfortable with free movement of Europeans filling labour voids but not Commonwealth/whole world.

    Your anecdote assumes it was bigotry that was meant rather than volume.
    My anecdote says that all the bigots voted leave but not everyone who voted leave is a bigot. Its not that difficult to grasp. Unless you are so closed-minded as to think that what you think is what all right-minded people think because you are always right.
    But your anecdote is bollocks.

    Some people voted Leave because they wanted migrants from the rest of the world (like eg Asians) being treated the same as Europeans.

    Many, many people voted Remain because they were comfortable with immigration coming from white Europe, and didn't want more immigration coming from the rest of the world instead.

    The terrible idea that its OK if a German or an Italian comes over via the EU, but they don't want any more Pakistanis, so vote Remain, was more common than you accept.

    People are complicated and there were both racists and anti-racists on both sides.
    Sorry but the issue for a lot of people was simply the immigration of (any) low skilled people taking jobs they thought they could have had.

    For them skin colour was irrelevant - the issue was their appearance in jobs they hoped they might have got.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,414
    Rishi running away with the endorsements again this morning, currently up to 51.

    Penny on 30.

    Truss 24.

    Tugendhat 20.

    Badenoch 19.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,572

    It's going to Truss isn't it...yee gods.

    Where's that membership form for the lib dems....

    Is that a new one for you, or the old one from when she was a member?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,774
    dixiedean said:

    There's an outside chance 4 could miss the cut today.
    That would really shake things up. There'd be 100+ votes available to re-distribute.

    I also think that anyone who is within 5 of the cut will be under considerable pressure to call it a day and drop out.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    Exclusive from @hzeffman

    Penny Mordaunt launches her pitch for the Tory leadership with a promise to give every family a 'childcare budget' as a survey suggests she would beat every other contender

    She wants to deliver 'greater choice' for families

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/penny-mordaunt-favourite-among-tory-grass-roots-poll-shows-rlhsft637
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,414

    Here's hoping for another exit today:

    Tory leadership contender Nadhim Zahawi tells LBC he would "certainly" offer Boris Johnson a job if he wanted to be part of his cabinet.

    https://twitter.com/LBCNews/status/1547115982522650625

    Nadim Zahawi: how to trash a political brand in 7 days.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Hasn't got a vote, yet:

    .@KemiBadenoch has the integrity and competency to restore trust in the Conservative party and connect it to real issues within the community. She has my wholehearted support for Prime Minister

    https://twitter.com/sebcoe/status/1547113393106173952
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,156
    edited July 2022
    darkage said:

    Re the racism discussion FPT:

    There are definitely large pockets of closet racism dotted around the country. Usually in very white areas where there is little contact with, or experience of, black or ethnic people.

    Many of those with racist views know better than to express those views too openly, and I expect that adds to their feelings of threat and alienation.

    It slips out from time to time though, like the woman whose house we went to look at to potentially buy who whispered to us that it was a nice area with 'no blacks or asians nearby'.

    Sure, it's an anecdote but not an isolated one.

    I should just add re racism and Leave, that I fully acknowledge that the majority of those who voted leave, and certainly those on here, are not racist.

    I think racism is universal, there are just varying levels of self-awareness of it. We are probably just wired to make judgements about people based on physical characteristics and it is unlikely that we can actually be rewired to work a different way. We can try.

    (edited)
    I think that if a multi racial society is to actually succeed, there needs to be a bit more realism about our human flaws. You also need to tackle racism not just by white people, but between other racial groups. There is not much sign of this type of thinking taking place on the left, it will probably have to come from the political right.
    I don't think racism is universal, though I think xenophobia (in the classic meaning of the word) can be. Fear of the unknown is more universal and real than either racism or homosexuality etc which are both dated concepts that can and should be both tackled and allowed fade away.

    Children that grow up in a mixed race environment, without racist parents or adult influences, won't "naturally" be racist, because the very concept would be alien to them. If all your life you've had white, brown and yellow skinned friends then the idea of racism should be as absurd as being "naturally" discriminatory against people who have yellow, brown or red hair.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Rishi's best strategy is to try and get as many votes for himself as possible (Hah !) in order to lock out Mordaunt. I think he'd rather face Truss in the run off.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    MrEd said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sunak should edge it for the MPs vote, a membership vote against Truss or Mordaunt could be a completely different story however

    It looks almost inevitable that Sunak will be one of the final two, which means the betting gives him a one-in-three chance of winning the member's vote.

    There's a chance he might turn it around in the hustings, or the other finalist might implode, so that seems reasonable.
    I want to hear more details of what Ben Wallace has to say about Sunak. Apparently they had a row about Ukraine spending.

    If it turns out that Rishi was genuinely arguing that Ukraine couldn’t win so we shouldn’t spend more money arming them - rather than simply playing the role of Devil’s advocate over spending in a Cabinet meeting - then his slick campaign to present himself as inevitable could blow up faster than a Russian weapons store.
    Ditto. There seems to be more than one report suggesting Wallace is set to torpedo Sunak. Personally, if he is going to do it, I think he will wait until it gets to the members' vote to have the maximum impact.
    I hope not. I hope that anyone who has anything genuinely bad about any of the candidates, needs to get it out there ASAP.

    Blowing someone up at the membership vote stage, leaves the members with no choice.

    On the wider point, it does appear that Sunak is less popular with the membership than the MPs. Will the MPs realise this and knock him out early, or will they instead try and engineer someone like Hunt to go against him?
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    edited July 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    Exclusive from @hzeffman

    Penny Mordaunt launches her pitch for the Tory leadership with a promise to give every family a 'childcare budget' as a survey suggests she would beat every other contender

    She wants to deliver 'greater choice' for families

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/penny-mordaunt-favourite-among-tory-grass-roots-poll-shows-rlhsft637

    And the Magic money tree comes into view again.

    Also cue a lot of people on working tax credits currently doing a few hours "childcare" as their source of income.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,584

    Rishi running away with the endorsements again this morning, currently up to 51.

    Penny on 30.

    Truss 24.

    Tugendhat 20.

    Badenoch 19.

    That's hardly 'running away with'.
    It's a significant lead, but a large number of MPs are keeping their options open for now.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,015

    What is fascinating about this leadership election is the sheer spread of candidates and outlooks and positions.

    At one extreme a vision of a fictional past led by Braverman. Break poor people on the wheel. Tax cuts for decent people. Put the gayers and the trannies and the haters back in their box where decent people can look down on them.

    At the other extreme a vision of a dynamic future led by Badenoch. 2020s Britain as personified by a female black migrant with braided hair and a clear vision for how to respect people who who they are without having to harang or belittle like equivalent Labour people do.

    What is extraordinary is that half the field are BAME, half are women and two are both. Sorry Labour Party, but if this doesn't explode your "we are the party of modern representative politics", nothing will.

    It looks as if we will have the first ethnic PM or third woman PM ( all conservatives )

    I think Labour's problem is the unions. When it comes to election planning it becomes a beauty contest - who can attract the most cash from their trade union. And too many unions are very white male and wealthy. Yes I know the Tories are heavily that as well, but they get outside funding. Labour candidates need cash and that cash comes from unions who advance their own people.

    Its not as if the first BAME PM and/or third female PM will make a positive difference to the Tories if it is Zahawi or Braverman or Truss. Pick a mentalist, or better still continuity Boris and the party is doomed. But what opportunity there is within the selection process to actually have choice!

    I still want the party removed from power, regardless of who wins. But a Badenoch government excites me - and I literally didn't know who she was until yesterday - because she would modernise the political discourse massively.

    Brexit was - in a significant part - a vote to send the foreigners home, to remove the outsiders who had brought the country down. And here is Olukemi Olufunto Adegoke, who returned to her native UK from her ancestral Nigeria age 16 to escape the situation over there, did A-Levels whilst working in McDonalds, before going on to work in IT and Finance. Now Kemi Badenoch she represents everything that is the *opposite* of the nasty insular whiter Britain that so many voted for. And don't tell this leave voter that they didn't. They bloody did.
    It does raise an interesting question though as to how come the Conservative Party, without all female/minority shortlists have been able to get so many women and minorities right to the very top of the party (and not just padding out the backbenches) . . . but how come the union leaders are all '[white] male and wealthy'.

    Why are the unions so unrepresentative?

    PS "they didn't".
    Door after door after door after door. Talking to white voters in an almost entirely white British area being told there are too many foreigners. As I said - a "nasty insular whiter Britain". You can say that I didn't have those appalling conversations all you like. I did. And there is reams of evidence and reportage from the time backing that up.

    Its just that people don't want to be associated with racism and their petty bigotry and jingoist friends. I can understand that. Its not so much that people are racist - reality is far more subtle than that. Its that they dislike the other. Whether that is Europeans or non-whites or people not born in Yorkshire or people who like ballet or whatever. I - like you - am a white man who voted to leave. I - like you did not do so for any of the reasons I just listed. We are not racist or bigoted or bitter. But all the people who are voted leave. That doesn't mean that all leavers are racist, just that all racists voted leave. Why is that hard to grasp?
    Because it isn't true?

    I know of Remain voters who voted Remain because they were comfortable with free movement of Europeans filling labour voids but not Commonwealth/whole world.

    Your anecdote assumes it was bigotry that was meant rather than volume.
    My anecdote says that all the bigots voted leave but not everyone who voted leave is a bigot. Its not that difficult to grasp. Unless you are so closed-minded as to think that what you think is what all right-minded people think because you are always right.
    But your anecdote is bollocks.
    My anecdote is my experience knocking endless doorsteps. What the good people of Thornaby and Ingleby Barwick told me when I spoke to them. Unless you were there having those conversations you cannot possibly know whether it is bollocks or not.

    Essentially you are calling me a liar. If you think I am lying why not just say so clearly and distinctly?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,584
    The number of #monkeypox cases in non-endemic countries has now crossed 10.000.

    Countries with the highest number of detected cases so far:

    Spain: 2447
    UK: 1735
    Germany: 1694
    US: 929
    France: 721
    Netherlands: 503
    Portugal: 473
    Canada: 433
    Italy: 292

    https://twitter.com/kakape/status/1547136918953070592
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,934
    DavidL said:

    dixiedean said:

    There's an outside chance 4 could miss the cut today.
    That would really shake things up. There'd be 100+ votes available to re-distribute.

    I also think that anyone who is within 5 of the cut will be under considerable pressure to call it a day and drop out.
    Four (or any number) missing the cut shows the pointlessness of the minimum number of endorsements to run. If Rehman Chishti had been allowed to run, he would still have been eliminated in the first round of voting, but the party could boast an extra BAME candidate. It would not have increased the number of voting rounds needed, and might have decreased it. The 1922 Committee got this one wrong.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    DavidL said:

    dixiedean said:

    There's an outside chance 4 could miss the cut today.
    That would really shake things up. There'd be 100+ votes available to re-distribute.

    I also think that anyone who is within 5 of the cut will be under considerable pressure to call it a day and drop out.
    In which case we may be down to the Big 3.
    On the other hand, we actually know very little, as not a single vote has yet been cast.
    What larks.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,015
    biggles said:

    FPT:

    What is fascinating about this leadership election is the sheer spread of candidates and outlooks and positions.

    At one extreme a vision of a fictional past led by Braverman. Break poor people on the wheel. Tax cuts for decent people. Put the gayers and the trannies and the haters back in their box where decent people can look down on them.

    At the other extreme a vision of a dynamic future led by Badenoch. 2020s Britain as personified by a female black migrant with braided hair and a clear vision for how to respect people who who they are without having to harang or belittle like equivalent Labour people do.

    What is extraordinary is that half the field are BAME, half are women and two are both. Sorry Labour Party, but if this doesn't explode your "we are the party of modern representative politics", nothing will.

    It looks as if we will have the first ethnic PM or third woman PM ( all conservatives )

    I think Labour's problem is the unions. When it comes to election planning it becomes a beauty contest - who can attract the most cash from their trade union. And too many unions are very white male and wealthy. Yes I know the Tories are heavily that as well, but they get outside funding. Labour candidates need cash and that cash comes from unions who advance their own people.

    Its not as if the first BAME PM and/or third female PM will make a positive difference to the Tories if it is Zahawi or Braverman or Truss. Pick a mentalist, or better still continuity Boris and the party is doomed. But what opportunity there is within the selection process to actually have choice!

    I still want the party removed from power, regardless of who wins. But a Badenoch government excites me - and I literally didn't know who she was until yesterday - because she would modernise the political discourse massively.

    Brexit was - in a significant part - a vote to send the foreigners home, to remove the outsiders who had brought the country down. And here is Olukemi Olufunto Adegoke, who returned to her native UK from her ancestral Nigeria age 16 to escape the situation over there, did A-Levels whilst working in McDonalds, before going on to work in IT and Finance. Now Kemi Badenoch she represents everything that is the *opposite* of the nasty insular whiter Britain that so many voted for. And don't tell this leave voter that they didn't. They bloody did.
    It does raise an interesting question though as to how come the Conservative Party, without all female/minority shortlists have been able to get so many women and minorities right to the very top of the party (and not just padding out the backbenches) . . . but how come the union leaders are all '[white] male and wealthy'.

    Why are the unions so unrepresentative?

    PS "they didn't".
    Door after door after door after door. Talking to white voters in an almost entirely white British area being told there are too many foreigners. As I said - a "nasty insular whiter Britain". You can say that I didn't have those appalling conversations all you like. I did. And there is reams of evidence and reportage from the time backing that up.

    Its just that people don't want to be associated with racism and their petty bigotry and jingoist friends. I can understand that. Its not so much that people are racist - reality is far more subtle than that. Its that they dislike the other. Whether that is Europeans or non-whites or people not born in Yorkshire or people who like ballet or whatever. I - like you - am a white man who voted to leave. I - like you did not do so for any of the reasons I just listed. We are not racist or bigoted or bitter. But all the people who are voted leave. That doesn't mean that all leavers are racist, just that all racists voted leave. Why is that hard to grasp?
    It's not hard to grasp that some people are racists, but they are a minority. If only racists had voted Leave then Remain would have won a mammoth landslide.
    Tbf to RP he's very clearly said not all leavers are racist.
    Not even a majority of leave voters are racist. But all the racists voted leave. And they have poisoned the well so that now we have this horrible insular us vs Yerp antagonism. As they get richer than us due to the decisions we have made after leaving the EU I fear this will get worse - with the wrong new Tory leader.

    Or we can have a Sunak or Badenoch and reclaim the modernising zeal we had under Cameron and before him Blair.
    Just to say, because this has triggered some criticism, that as a leave voter I agree with you that more or less all racists will have voted leave. I think all leave voters need to be aware of that. My biggest issue when I voted was the metaphorical company I was keeping and it pained me to deliver them a victory.

    I also voted leave.

    All racists voted leave.
    Not all leave voters are racist (I'd say the majority).

    Its not difficult. Yet the majority of leave winners don't seem willing to admit that millions of their fellow leavers voted so because they disliked people who weren't them.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,774
    biggles said:

    FPT:

    What is fascinating about this leadership election is the sheer spread of candidates and outlooks and positions.

    At one extreme a vision of a fictional past led by Braverman. Break poor people on the wheel. Tax cuts for decent people. Put the gayers and the trannies and the haters back in their box where decent people can look down on them.

    At the other extreme a vision of a dynamic future led by Badenoch. 2020s Britain as personified by a female black migrant with braided hair and a clear vision for how to respect people who who they are without having to harang or belittle like equivalent Labour people do.

    What is extraordinary is that half the field are BAME, half are women and two are both. Sorry Labour Party, but if this doesn't explode your "we are the party of modern representative politics", nothing will.

    It looks as if we will have the first ethnic PM or third woman PM ( all conservatives )

    I think Labour's problem is the unions. When it comes to election planning it becomes a beauty contest - who can attract the most cash from their trade union. And too many unions are very white male and wealthy. Yes I know the Tories are heavily that as well, but they get outside funding. Labour candidates need cash and that cash comes from unions who advance their own people.

    Its not as if the first BAME PM and/or third female PM will make a positive difference to the Tories if it is Zahawi or Braverman or Truss. Pick a mentalist, or better still continuity Boris and the party is doomed. But what opportunity there is within the selection process to actually have choice!

    I still want the party removed from power, regardless of who wins. But a Badenoch government excites me - and I literally didn't know who she was until yesterday - because she would modernise the political discourse massively.

    Brexit was - in a significant part - a vote to send the foreigners home, to remove the outsiders who had brought the country down. And here is Olukemi Olufunto Adegoke, who returned to her native UK from her ancestral Nigeria age 16 to escape the situation over there, did A-Levels whilst working in McDonalds, before going on to work in IT and Finance. Now Kemi Badenoch she represents everything that is the *opposite* of the nasty insular whiter Britain that so many voted for. And don't tell this leave voter that they didn't. They bloody did.
    It does raise an interesting question though as to how come the Conservative Party, without all female/minority shortlists have been able to get so many women and minorities right to the very top of the party (and not just padding out the backbenches) . . . but how come the union leaders are all '[white] male and wealthy'.

    Why are the unions so unrepresentative?

    PS "they didn't".
    Door after door after door after door. Talking to white voters in an almost entirely white British area being told there are too many foreigners. As I said - a "nasty insular whiter Britain". You can say that I didn't have those appalling conversations all you like. I did. And there is reams of evidence and reportage from the time backing that up.

    Its just that people don't want to be associated with racism and their petty bigotry and jingoist friends. I can understand that. Its not so much that people are racist - reality is far more subtle than that. Its that they dislike the other. Whether that is Europeans or non-whites or people not born in Yorkshire or people who like ballet or whatever. I - like you - am a white man who voted to leave. I - like you did not do so for any of the reasons I just listed. We are not racist or bigoted or bitter. But all the people who are voted leave. That doesn't mean that all leavers are racist, just that all racists voted leave. Why is that hard to grasp?
    It's not hard to grasp that some people are racists, but they are a minority. If only racists had voted Leave then Remain would have won a mammoth landslide.
    Tbf to RP he's very clearly said not all leavers are racist.
    Not even a majority of leave voters are racist. But all the racists voted leave. And they have poisoned the well so that now we have this horrible insular us vs Yerp antagonism. As they get richer than us due to the decisions we have made after leaving the EU I fear this will get worse - with the wrong new Tory leader.

    Or we can have a Sunak or Badenoch and reclaim the modernising zeal we had under Cameron and before him Blair.
    Just to say, because this has triggered some criticism, that as a leave voter I agree with you that more or less all racists will have voted leave. I think all leave voters need to be aware of that. My biggest issue when I voted was the metaphorical company I was keeping and it pained me to deliver them a victory.

    Yes/no referendums are divisive and result in many strange bedfellows on either side of the divide. I was more concerned of the inevitable departure of the Cameron/Osborne government which I generally liked, particularly when they were in coaltion with the Lib Dems.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,584
    Like he'd offer you one.

    https://twitter.com/KayBurley/status/1547125547976769536
    Kay: Would you accept a cabinet post from Rishi Sunak?

    Jacob Rees-Mogg: No of course not... his disloyalty means I could not possibly support him....
  • What is fascinating about this leadership election is the sheer spread of candidates and outlooks and positions.

    At one extreme a vision of a fictional past led by Braverman. Break poor people on the wheel. Tax cuts for decent people. Put the gayers and the trannies and the haters back in their box where decent people can look down on them.

    At the other extreme a vision of a dynamic future led by Badenoch. 2020s Britain as personified by a female black migrant with braided hair and a clear vision for how to respect people who who they are without having to harang or belittle like equivalent Labour people do.

    What is extraordinary is that half the field are BAME, half are women and two are both. Sorry Labour Party, but if this doesn't explode your "we are the party of modern representative politics", nothing will.

    It looks as if we will have the first ethnic PM or third woman PM ( all conservatives )

    I think Labour's problem is the unions. When it comes to election planning it becomes a beauty contest - who can attract the most cash from their trade union. And too many unions are very white male and wealthy. Yes I know the Tories are heavily that as well, but they get outside funding. Labour candidates need cash and that cash comes from unions who advance their own people.

    Its not as if the first BAME PM and/or third female PM will make a positive difference to the Tories if it is Zahawi or Braverman or Truss. Pick a mentalist, or better still continuity Boris and the party is doomed. But what opportunity there is within the selection process to actually have choice!

    I still want the party removed from power, regardless of who wins. But a Badenoch government excites me - and I literally didn't know who she was until yesterday - because she would modernise the political discourse massively.

    Brexit was - in a significant part - a vote to send the foreigners home, to remove the outsiders who had brought the country down. And here is Olukemi Olufunto Adegoke, who returned to her native UK from her ancestral Nigeria age 16 to escape the situation over there, did A-Levels whilst working in McDonalds, before going on to work in IT and Finance. Now Kemi Badenoch she represents everything that is the *opposite* of the nasty insular whiter Britain that so many voted for. And don't tell this leave voter that they didn't. They bloody did.
    It does raise an interesting question though as to how come the Conservative Party, without all female/minority shortlists have been able to get so many women and minorities right to the very top of the party (and not just padding out the backbenches) . . . but how come the union leaders are all '[white] male and wealthy'.

    Why are the unions so unrepresentative?

    PS "they didn't".
    Door after door after door after door. Talking to white voters in an almost entirely white British area being told there are too many foreigners. As I said - a "nasty insular whiter Britain". You can say that I didn't have those appalling conversations all you like. I did. And there is reams of evidence and reportage from the time backing that up.

    Its just that people don't want to be associated with racism and their petty bigotry and jingoist friends. I can understand that. Its not so much that people are racist - reality is far more subtle than that. Its that they dislike the other. Whether that is Europeans or non-whites or people not born in Yorkshire or people who like ballet or whatever. I - like you - am a white man who voted to leave. I - like you did not do so for any of the reasons I just listed. We are not racist or bigoted or bitter. But all the people who are voted leave. That doesn't mean that all leavers are racist, just that all racists voted leave. Why is that hard to grasp?
    Because it isn't true?

    I know of Remain voters who voted Remain because they were comfortable with free movement of Europeans filling labour voids but not Commonwealth/whole world.

    Your anecdote assumes it was bigotry that was meant rather than volume.
    My anecdote says that all the bigots voted leave but not everyone who voted leave is a bigot. Its not that difficult to grasp. Unless you are so closed-minded as to think that what you think is what all right-minded people think because you are always right.
    But your anecdote is bollocks.
    My anecdote is my experience knocking endless doorsteps. What the good people of Thornaby and Ingleby Barwick told me when I spoke to them. Unless you were there having those conversations you cannot possibly know whether it is bollocks or not.

    Essentially you are calling me a liar. If you think I am lying why not just say so clearly and distinctly?
    I don't think you're lying, except maybe to yourself. You've self-radicalised since switching sides on the issue, which is the only reason you can write such obvious untruths as "all the bigots voted leave".

    Many people, including some on this site, were making pro-Remain arguments at the time that Leave would mean increased immigration from outside Europe and that free movement was good since it only applied to Europeans. That was a racist argument, and yet you have claimed "all the bigots voted Leave".

    Its bollocks. Its also as someone else said, "Jews don't count" bollocks too.

    If you said that some people who voted Leave did so for racist reasons, then that would be true, as too did some who voted Remain. But to say "all" Leave voters were racist, or "all" racists voted Leave is complete hogwash.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,257
    edited July 2022

    darkage said:

    Re the racism discussion FPT:

    There are definitely large pockets of closet racism dotted around the country. Usually in very white areas where there is little contact with, or experience of, black or ethnic people.

    Many of those with racist views know better than to express those views too openly, and I expect that adds to their feelings of threat and alienation.

    It slips out from time to time though, like the woman whose house we went to look at to potentially buy who whispered to us that it was a nice area with 'no blacks or asians nearby'.

    Sure, it's an anecdote but not an isolated one.

    I should just add re racism and Leave, that I fully acknowledge that the majority of those who voted leave, and certainly those on here, are not racist.

    I think racism is universal, there are just varying levels of self-awareness of it. We are probably just wired to make judgements about people based on physical characteristics and it is unlikely that we can actually be rewired to work a different way. We can try.

    (edited)
    I think that if a multi racial society is to actually succeed, there needs to be a bit more realism about our human flaws. You also need to tackle racism not just by white people, but between other racial groups. There is not much sign of this type of thinking taking place on the left, it will probably have to come from the political right.
    I don't think racism is universal, though I think xenophobia (in the classic meaning of the word) can be. Fear of the unknown is more universal and real than either racism or homosexuality etc which are both dated concepts that can and should be both tackled and allowed fade away.

    Children that grow up in a mixed race environment, without racist parents or adult influences, won't "naturally" be racist, because the very concept would be alien to them. If all your life you've had white, brown and yellow skinned friends then the idea of racism should be as absurd as being "naturally" discriminatory against people who have yellow, brown or red hair.
    I liked the parent post, because there's something in that - we all have prejudices*, whether it amounts ot racism depends on your definition for that.

    Young children though, are largely free of that. They accept the world as it is. My son doesn't notice that some of his friends at playgroup are not white, it just doesn't register any more than them having a differnt hair colour. He doesn't register that it's in any way unusual that one of his uncles lives with another uncle, rather than an aunt. We learn these things through others, through the media and - of course - through family and friends, I guess.

    Edit: which is, of course, your point

    *call them unconscious biases, maybe :wink:
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    Sounds like Tom Tug is about to take a big swing at Rishi over his refusal to promise defence spending increase. Has called a snap press conference.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    From what I've seen Rishi does seem to have been quiet on Ukraine. Surprising really because it would have given him the chance to burnish his leadership credentials. And given the central bank asset freezing, sanctions, Chelsea sale it is not as if he wasn't involved in some way.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,015
    eek said:

    What is fascinating about this leadership election is the sheer spread of candidates and outlooks and positions.

    At one extreme a vision of a fictional past led by Braverman. Break poor people on the wheel. Tax cuts for decent people. Put the gayers and the trannies and the haters back in their box where decent people can look down on them.

    At the other extreme a vision of a dynamic future led by Badenoch. 2020s Britain as personified by a female black migrant with braided hair and a clear vision for how to respect people who who they are without having to harang or belittle like equivalent Labour people do.

    What is extraordinary is that half the field are BAME, half are women and two are both. Sorry Labour Party, but if this doesn't explode your "we are the party of modern representative politics", nothing will.

    It looks as if we will have the first ethnic PM or third woman PM ( all conservatives )

    I think Labour's problem is the unions. When it comes to election planning it becomes a beauty contest - who can attract the most cash from their trade union. And too many unions are very white male and wealthy. Yes I know the Tories are heavily that as well, but they get outside funding. Labour candidates need cash and that cash comes from unions who advance their own people.

    Its not as if the first BAME PM and/or third female PM will make a positive difference to the Tories if it is Zahawi or Braverman or Truss. Pick a mentalist, or better still continuity Boris and the party is doomed. But what opportunity there is within the selection process to actually have choice!

    I still want the party removed from power, regardless of who wins. But a Badenoch government excites me - and I literally didn't know who she was until yesterday - because she would modernise the political discourse massively.

    Brexit was - in a significant part - a vote to send the foreigners home, to remove the outsiders who had brought the country down. And here is Olukemi Olufunto Adegoke, who returned to her native UK from her ancestral Nigeria age 16 to escape the situation over there, did A-Levels whilst working in McDonalds, before going on to work in IT and Finance. Now Kemi Badenoch she represents everything that is the *opposite* of the nasty insular whiter Britain that so many voted for. And don't tell this leave voter that they didn't. They bloody did.
    It does raise an interesting question though as to how come the Conservative Party, without all female/minority shortlists have been able to get so many women and minorities right to the very top of the party (and not just padding out the backbenches) . . . but how come the union leaders are all '[white] male and wealthy'.

    Why are the unions so unrepresentative?

    PS "they didn't".
    Door after door after door after door. Talking to white voters in an almost entirely white British area being told there are too many foreigners. As I said - a "nasty insular whiter Britain". You can say that I didn't have those appalling conversations all you like. I did. And there is reams of evidence and reportage from the time backing that up.

    Its just that people don't want to be associated with racism and their petty bigotry and jingoist friends. I can understand that. Its not so much that people are racist - reality is far more subtle than that. Its that they dislike the other. Whether that is Europeans or non-whites or people not born in Yorkshire or people who like ballet or whatever. I - like you - am a white man who voted to leave. I - like you did not do so for any of the reasons I just listed. We are not racist or bigoted or bitter. But all the people who are voted leave. That doesn't mean that all leavers are racist, just that all racists voted leave. Why is that hard to grasp?
    Because it isn't true?

    I know of Remain voters who voted Remain because they were comfortable with free movement of Europeans filling labour voids but not Commonwealth/whole world.

    Your anecdote assumes it was bigotry that was meant rather than volume.
    My anecdote says that all the bigots voted leave but not everyone who voted leave is a bigot. Its not that difficult to grasp. Unless you are so closed-minded as to think that what you think is what all right-minded people think because you are always right.
    But your anecdote is bollocks.

    Some people voted Leave because they wanted migrants from the rest of the world (like eg Asians) being treated the same as Europeans.

    Many, many people voted Remain because they were comfortable with immigration coming from white Europe, and didn't want more immigration coming from the rest of the world instead.

    The terrible idea that its OK if a German or an Italian comes over via the EU, but they don't want any more Pakistanis, so vote Remain, was more common than you accept.

    People are complicated and there were both racists and anti-racists on both sides.
    Sorry but the issue for a lot of people was simply the immigration of (any) low skilled people taking jobs they thought they could have had.

    For them skin colour was irrelevant - the issue was their appearance in jobs they hoped they might have got.
    Exactly - who said anything about skin colour? My original post this morning that triggered the huffing and puffing made no mention of it. So many of the "other" that people wanted to go away were white eastern Europeans.

    "Racist" covers skin colour, yes. But as I said its far wider than that. Its fear of the "other". Anyone who isn't me. Its bigotry, prejudice, jingoism, racism - depends on the person and the other.

    My best case of this was being harangued on Facebook by the mayor denouncing me as someone not born there, not from there, who would never understand the town and its history and its people so would be better to "go home" to Rochdale (where I am not originally from...).

    One white man telling another white man to go home. Because not from there. The Iman at the mosque saw it and understood perfectly - bigotry and prejudice against outsiders is all-encompassing even if it isn't aimed at you.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Sandpit said:

    MrEd said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sunak should edge it for the MPs vote, a membership vote against Truss or Mordaunt could be a completely different story however

    It looks almost inevitable that Sunak will be one of the final two, which means the betting gives him a one-in-three chance of winning the member's vote.

    There's a chance he might turn it around in the hustings, or the other finalist might implode, so that seems reasonable.
    I want to hear more details of what Ben Wallace has to say about Sunak. Apparently they had a row about Ukraine spending.

    If it turns out that Rishi was genuinely arguing that Ukraine couldn’t win so we shouldn’t spend more money arming them - rather than simply playing the role of Devil’s advocate over spending in a Cabinet meeting - then his slick campaign to present himself as inevitable could blow up faster than a Russian weapons store.
    Ditto. There seems to be more than one report suggesting Wallace is set to torpedo Sunak. Personally, if he is going to do it, I think he will wait until it gets to the members' vote to have the maximum impact.
    I hope not. I hope that anyone who has anything genuinely bad about any of the candidates, needs to get it out there ASAP.

    Blowing someone up at the membership vote stage, leaves the members with no choice.

    On the wider point, it does appear that Sunak is less popular with the membership than the MPs. Will the MPs realise this and knock him out early, or will they instead try and engineer someone like Hunt to go against him?
    How on earth does Sunak get knocked out at the MP stage ? He's 1.15/1.16 and I think the value might be on the back side of that. It's a very risky game if you don't want Truss (I think Mordaunt/Sunak support is somewhat fungible) to come through the middle.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,774

    DavidL said:

    dixiedean said:

    There's an outside chance 4 could miss the cut today.
    That would really shake things up. There'd be 100+ votes available to re-distribute.

    I also think that anyone who is within 5 of the cut will be under considerable pressure to call it a day and drop out.
    Four (or any number) missing the cut shows the pointlessness of the minimum number of endorsements to run. If Rehman Chishti had been allowed to run, he would still have been eliminated in the first round of voting, but the party could boast an extra BAME candidate. It would not have increased the number of voting rounds needed, and might have decreased it. The 1922 Committee got this one wrong.
    The one advantage is that the hustings yesterday were reduced to slightly more manageable numbers. Other than that, yes. I think that the party is very keen to be seen to make progress on this, recognising that a continuation of PM Boris is doing them no favours at all. They want to move the story on to new characters and new ideas. They are right.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,015
    DavidL said:

    biggles said:

    FPT:

    What is fascinating about this leadership election is the sheer spread of candidates and outlooks and positions.

    At one extreme a vision of a fictional past led by Braverman. Break poor people on the wheel. Tax cuts for decent people. Put the gayers and the trannies and the haters back in their box where decent people can look down on them.

    At the other extreme a vision of a dynamic future led by Badenoch. 2020s Britain as personified by a female black migrant with braided hair and a clear vision for how to respect people who who they are without having to harang or belittle like equivalent Labour people do.

    What is extraordinary is that half the field are BAME, half are women and two are both. Sorry Labour Party, but if this doesn't explode your "we are the party of modern representative politics", nothing will.

    It looks as if we will have the first ethnic PM or third woman PM ( all conservatives )

    I think Labour's problem is the unions. When it comes to election planning it becomes a beauty contest - who can attract the most cash from their trade union. And too many unions are very white male and wealthy. Yes I know the Tories are heavily that as well, but they get outside funding. Labour candidates need cash and that cash comes from unions who advance their own people.

    Its not as if the first BAME PM and/or third female PM will make a positive difference to the Tories if it is Zahawi or Braverman or Truss. Pick a mentalist, or better still continuity Boris and the party is doomed. But what opportunity there is within the selection process to actually have choice!

    I still want the party removed from power, regardless of who wins. But a Badenoch government excites me - and I literally didn't know who she was until yesterday - because she would modernise the political discourse massively.

    Brexit was - in a significant part - a vote to send the foreigners home, to remove the outsiders who had brought the country down. And here is Olukemi Olufunto Adegoke, who returned to her native UK from her ancestral Nigeria age 16 to escape the situation over there, did A-Levels whilst working in McDonalds, before going on to work in IT and Finance. Now Kemi Badenoch she represents everything that is the *opposite* of the nasty insular whiter Britain that so many voted for. And don't tell this leave voter that they didn't. They bloody did.
    It does raise an interesting question though as to how come the Conservative Party, without all female/minority shortlists have been able to get so many women and minorities right to the very top of the party (and not just padding out the backbenches) . . . but how come the union leaders are all '[white] male and wealthy'.

    Why are the unions so unrepresentative?

    PS "they didn't".
    Door after door after door after door. Talking to white voters in an almost entirely white British area being told there are too many foreigners. As I said - a "nasty insular whiter Britain". You can say that I didn't have those appalling conversations all you like. I did. And there is reams of evidence and reportage from the time backing that up.

    Its just that people don't want to be associated with racism and their petty bigotry and jingoist friends. I can understand that. Its not so much that people are racist - reality is far more subtle than that. Its that they dislike the other. Whether that is Europeans or non-whites or people not born in Yorkshire or people who like ballet or whatever. I - like you - am a white man who voted to leave. I - like you did not do so for any of the reasons I just listed. We are not racist or bigoted or bitter. But all the people who are voted leave. That doesn't mean that all leavers are racist, just that all racists voted leave. Why is that hard to grasp?
    It's not hard to grasp that some people are racists, but they are a minority. If only racists had voted Leave then Remain would have won a mammoth landslide.
    Tbf to RP he's very clearly said not all leavers are racist.
    Not even a majority of leave voters are racist. But all the racists voted leave. And they have poisoned the well so that now we have this horrible insular us vs Yerp antagonism. As they get richer than us due to the decisions we have made after leaving the EU I fear this will get worse - with the wrong new Tory leader.

    Or we can have a Sunak or Badenoch and reclaim the modernising zeal we had under Cameron and before him Blair.
    Just to say, because this has triggered some criticism, that as a leave voter I agree with you that more or less all racists will have voted leave. I think all leave voters need to be aware of that. My biggest issue when I voted was the metaphorical company I was keeping and it pained me to deliver them a victory.

    Yes/no referendums are divisive and result in many strange bedfellows on either side of the divide. I was more concerned of the inevitable departure of the Cameron/Osborne government which I generally liked, particularly when they were in coaltion with the Lib Dems.
    There was something wonderfully modernising and refreshing about that government - despite some horrendous economic hair-shirted misery. There was a feel good factor about the social changes which I hadn't felt since the initial Blair government.

    The Tories have the opportunity to bring that back, to be a modern party leading a modern country. Or alternately go nasty and insular.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,458
    darkage said:

    Re the racism discussion FPT:

    There are definitely large pockets of closet racism dotted around the country. Usually in very white areas where there is little contact with, or experience of, black or ethnic people.

    Many of those with racist views know better than to express those views too openly, and I expect that adds to their feelings of threat and alienation.

    It slips out from time to time though, like the woman whose house we went to look at to potentially buy who whispered to us that it was a nice area with 'no blacks or asians nearby'.

    Sure, it's an anecdote but not an isolated one.

    I should just add re racism and Leave, that I fully acknowledge that the majority of those who voted leave, and certainly those on here, are not racist.

    I think racism is universal, there are just varying levels of self-awareness of it. We are probably just wired to make judgements about people based on physical characteristics and it is unlikely that we can actually be rewired to work a different way. We can and should try though.

    I think that if a multi racial society is to actually succeed, there needs to be a bit more realism about our human flaws. You also need to tackle racism not just by white people, but between other racial groups. There is not much sign of this type of thinking taking place on the left, it will probably have to come from the political right.

    (edited)



    Post of the day and it is only just 10am. So few on either side of the debate are willing to recognise that our subconscious works heavily on pattern recognition and that is the underlying cause of racism. I think education, mixing with others at a young age and seeing good role models of different looks do help "re-wire" us a very substantial amount, but otherwise agree entirely with your post and think it is key to improving the debates around race.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,584
    Just laughed out loud at this
    @amolrajan @nadhimzahawi exchange:
    Q: You trusted Boris Johnson enough to be his Chancellor, yet 24 hrs later you effectively called on him to quit. What does that say about your judgement?
    A; 'I'll tell you what it says: I put country first."

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1547111472307773440
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,572

    What is fascinating about this leadership election is the sheer spread of candidates and outlooks and positions.

    At one extreme a vision of a fictional past led by Braverman. Break poor people on the wheel. Tax cuts for decent people. Put the gayers and the trannies and the haters back in their box where decent people can look down on them.

    At the other extreme a vision of a dynamic future led by Badenoch. 2020s Britain as personified by a female black migrant with braided hair and a clear vision for how to respect people who who they are without having to harang or belittle like equivalent Labour people do.

    What is extraordinary is that half the field are BAME, half are women and two are both. Sorry Labour Party, but if this doesn't explode your "we are the party of modern representative politics", nothing will.

    It looks as if we will have the first ethnic PM or third woman PM ( all conservatives )

    I think Labour's problem is the unions. When it comes to election planning it becomes a beauty contest - who can attract the most cash from their trade union. And too many unions are very white male and wealthy. Yes I know the Tories are heavily that as well, but they get outside funding. Labour candidates need cash and that cash comes from unions who advance their own people.

    Its not as if the first BAME PM and/or third female PM will make a positive difference to the Tories if it is Zahawi or Braverman or Truss. Pick a mentalist, or better still continuity Boris and the party is doomed. But what opportunity there is within the selection process to actually have choice!

    I still want the party removed from power, regardless of who wins. But a Badenoch government excites me - and I literally didn't know who she was until yesterday - because she would modernise the political discourse massively.

    Brexit was - in a significant part - a vote to send the foreigners home, to remove the outsiders who had brought the country down. And here is Olukemi Olufunto Adegoke, who returned to her native UK from her ancestral Nigeria age 16 to escape the situation over there, did A-Levels whilst working in McDonalds, before going on to work in IT and Finance. Now Kemi Badenoch she represents everything that is the *opposite* of the nasty insular whiter Britain that so many voted for. And don't tell this leave voter that they didn't. They bloody did.
    It does raise an interesting question though as to how come the Conservative Party, without all female/minority shortlists have been able to get so many women and minorities right to the very top of the party (and not just padding out the backbenches) . . . but how come the union leaders are all '[white] male and wealthy'.

    Why are the unions so unrepresentative?

    PS "they didn't".
    Door after door after door after door. Talking to white voters in an almost entirely white British area being told there are too many foreigners. As I said - a "nasty insular whiter Britain". You can say that I didn't have those appalling conversations all you like. I did. And there is reams of evidence and reportage from the time backing that up.

    Its just that people don't want to be associated with racism and their petty bigotry and jingoist friends. I can understand that. Its not so much that people are racist - reality is far more subtle than that. Its that they dislike the other. Whether that is Europeans or non-whites or people not born in Yorkshire or people who like ballet or whatever. I - like you - am a white man who voted to leave. I - like you did not do so for any of the reasons I just listed. We are not racist or bigoted or bitter. But all the people who are voted leave. That doesn't mean that all leavers are racist, just that all racists voted leave. Why is that hard to grasp?
    Because it isn't true?

    I know of Remain voters who voted Remain because they were comfortable with free movement of Europeans filling labour voids but not Commonwealth/whole world.

    Your anecdote assumes it was bigotry that was meant rather than volume.
    My anecdote says that all the bigots voted leave but not everyone who voted leave is a bigot. Its not that difficult to grasp. Unless you are so closed-minded as to think that what you think is what all right-minded people think because you are always right.
    But your anecdote is bollocks.

    Some people voted Leave because they wanted migrants from the rest of the world (like eg Asians) being treated the same as Europeans.

    Many, many people voted Remain because they were comfortable with immigration coming from white Europe, and didn't want more immigration coming from the rest of the world instead.

    The terrible idea that its OK if a German or an Italian comes over via the EU, but they don't want any more Pakistanis, so vote Remain, was more common than you accept.

    People are complicated and there were both racists and anti-racists on both sides.
    It is complicated. I have a Sikh friend who in the middle of the last decade told me that he had become hostile to the large numbers of Eastern Europeans coming and settling in his community, because he said it had led to an upsurge of racism against Asians in the community, something that had dwindled over the previous years. Low level instances manifesting disrespect based on skin colour, nothing too extreme but he said it was clearly there. He said it was consistent with the sort of reception given to England teams containing black players when playing away in their host country.

    If he voted Leave because of the first hand racism he had been on the receiving end of from Eastern European immigrants, would that make him racist? I think not.
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 885
    What is the qualification for a vote as a Conservative party member? How long have you had to have been a member On what date must your subs have been paid ? What about people who are late payers? How big is the electorate?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    What Tories (in fact all of us ) should find most disturbing in that in the Red Wall seats Suella Braverman's policies were found to be the most popular.

    God help us all.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,156
    edited July 2022
    Selebian said:

    darkage said:

    Re the racism discussion FPT:

    There are definitely large pockets of closet racism dotted around the country. Usually in very white areas where there is little contact with, or experience of, black or ethnic people.

    Many of those with racist views know better than to express those views too openly, and I expect that adds to their feelings of threat and alienation.

    It slips out from time to time though, like the woman whose house we went to look at to potentially buy who whispered to us that it was a nice area with 'no blacks or asians nearby'.

    Sure, it's an anecdote but not an isolated one.

    I should just add re racism and Leave, that I fully acknowledge that the majority of those who voted leave, and certainly those on here, are not racist.

    I think racism is universal, there are just varying levels of self-awareness of it. We are probably just wired to make judgements about people based on physical characteristics and it is unlikely that we can actually be rewired to work a different way. We can try.

    (edited)
    I think that if a multi racial society is to actually succeed, there needs to be a bit more realism about our human flaws. You also need to tackle racism not just by white people, but between other racial groups. There is not much sign of this type of thinking taking place on the left, it will probably have to come from the political right.
    I don't think racism is universal, though I think xenophobia (in the classic meaning of the word) can be. Fear of the unknown is more universal and real than either racism or homosexuality etc which are both dated concepts that can and should be both tackled and allowed fade away.

    Children that grow up in a mixed race environment, without racist parents or adult influences, won't "naturally" be racist, because the very concept would be alien to them. If all your life you've had white, brown and yellow skinned friends then the idea of racism should be as absurd as being "naturally" discriminatory against people who have yellow, brown or red hair.
    I liked the parent post, because there's something in that - we all have prejudices*, whether it amounts ot racism depends on your definition for that.

    Young children though, are largely free of that. They accept the world as it is. My son doesn't notice that some of his friends at playgroup are not white, it just doesn't register any more than them having a differnt hair colour. He doesn't register that it's in any way unusual that one of his uncles lives with another uncle, rather than an aunt. We learn these things through others, through the media and - of course - through family and friends, I guess.

    *call them unconscious biases, maybe :wink:
    Exactly. My children and their classes seem to be wonderfully free of racism or homophobia etc and its really nice to see, they've simply never experienced such. Children and parents of other races are nothing other than friends, they've never had a reason to be negative. Unfortunately not all children grow up in that environment, but trying to institutionalise racism or suggestions everyone is racist is as equally bad as not tackling it where it does exist.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,462
    edited July 2022

    What is fascinating about this leadership election is the sheer spread of candidates and outlooks and positions.

    At one extreme a vision of a fictional past led by Braverman. Break poor people on the wheel. Tax cuts for decent people. Put the gayers and the trannies and the haters back in their box where decent people can look down on them.

    At the other extreme a vision of a dynamic future led by Badenoch. 2020s Britain as personified by a female black migrant with braided hair and a clear vision for how to respect people who who they are without having to harang or belittle like equivalent Labour people do.

    What is extraordinary is that half the field are BAME, half are women and two are both. Sorry Labour Party, but if this doesn't explode your "we are the party of modern representative politics", nothing will.

    It looks as if we will have the first ethnic PM or third woman PM ( all conservatives )

    I think Labour's problem is the unions. When it comes to election planning it becomes a beauty contest - who can attract the most cash from their trade union. And too many unions are very white male and wealthy. Yes I know the Tories are heavily that as well, but they get outside funding. Labour candidates need cash and that cash comes from unions who advance their own people.

    Its not as if the first BAME PM and/or third female PM will make a positive difference to the Tories if it is Zahawi or Braverman or Truss. Pick a mentalist, or better still continuity Boris and the party is doomed. But what opportunity there is within the selection process to actually have choice!

    I still want the party removed from power, regardless of who wins. But a Badenoch government excites me - and I literally didn't know who she was until yesterday - because she would modernise the political discourse massively.

    Brexit was - in a significant part - a vote to send the foreigners home, to remove the outsiders who had brought the country down. And here is Olukemi Olufunto Adegoke, who returned to her native UK from her ancestral Nigeria age 16 to escape the situation over there, did A-Levels whilst working in McDonalds, before going on to work in IT and Finance. Now Kemi Badenoch she represents everything that is the *opposite* of the nasty insular whiter Britain that so many voted for. And don't tell this leave voter that they didn't. They bloody did.
    It does raise an interesting question though as to how come the Conservative Party, without all female/minority shortlists have been able to get so many women and minorities right to the very top of the party (and not just padding out the backbenches) . . . but how come the union leaders are all '[white] male and wealthy'.

    Why are the unions so unrepresentative?

    PS "they didn't".
    Door after door after door after door. Talking to white voters in an almost entirely white British area being told there are too many foreigners. As I said - a "nasty insular whiter Britain". You can say that I didn't have those appalling conversations all you like. I did. And there is reams of evidence and reportage from the time backing that up.

    Its just that people don't want to be associated with racism and their petty bigotry and jingoist friends. I can understand that. Its not so much that people are racist - reality is far more subtle than that. Its that they dislike the other. Whether that is Europeans or non-whites or people not born in Yorkshire or people who like ballet or whatever. I - like you - am a white man who voted to leave. I - like you did not do so for any of the reasons I just listed. We are not racist or bigoted or bitter. But all the people who are voted leave. That doesn't mean that all leavers are racist, just that all racists voted leave. Why is that hard to grasp?
    Because it isn't true?

    I know of Remain voters who voted Remain because they were comfortable with free movement of Europeans filling labour voids but not Commonwealth/whole world.

    Your anecdote assumes it was bigotry that was meant rather than volume.
    My anecdote says that all the bigots voted leave but not everyone who voted leave is a bigot. Its not that difficult to grasp. Unless you are so closed-minded as to think that what you think is what all right-minded people think because you are always right.
    But your anecdote is bollocks.

    Some people voted Leave because they wanted migrants from the rest of the world (like eg Asians) being treated the same as Europeans.

    Many, many people voted Remain because they were comfortable with immigration coming from white Europe, and didn't want more immigration coming from the rest of the world instead.

    The terrible idea that its OK if a German or an Italian comes over via the EU, but they don't want any more Pakistanis, so vote Remain, was more common than you accept.

    People are complicated and there were both racists and anti-racists on both sides.
    Whereas I don't disagree with anything you have said there Bart the bit about it is more complicated goes further:

    Voters aren't rational. My Dad for instances fits into a category that I believe is not insignificant. He is right of Atilla the Hun and his main driver for voting leave was because there were too many blacks here. Trying to explain to him that leaving will cut down on white immigration from the EU and possibly greater immigration from countries where their skin is a darker colour was like banging your head against a brick wall.

    It would be interesting to know what the level of racism is in the UK. It is clearly much much better than it used to be and I agree with @Casino_Royale (on the previous thread) re racisms (and I assume misogyny) in the Tory party is probably not an issue these days, but I would like to end on a 2nd anecdote. In the late 60s I worked in a factory during my school holidays. The guys on the shop floor were as racist as they came. But there were a group of Asians who worked there also and they were OK! It was only the Asians they didn't know who apparently lived 30 to house in dirty conditions. The ones they knew were all fine. Funny that. Similarly with Thatcher. To many men who admired her, she was one of us, while their own good lady's role was washing up and preparing meals. Irrational I know.

    Many/most(?) voters are not like the people who post here.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,774

    DavidL said:

    biggles said:

    FPT:

    What is fascinating about this leadership election is the sheer spread of candidates and outlooks and positions.

    At one extreme a vision of a fictional past led by Braverman. Break poor people on the wheel. Tax cuts for decent people. Put the gayers and the trannies and the haters back in their box where decent people can look down on them.

    At the other extreme a vision of a dynamic future led by Badenoch. 2020s Britain as personified by a female black migrant with braided hair and a clear vision for how to respect people who who they are without having to harang or belittle like equivalent Labour people do.

    What is extraordinary is that half the field are BAME, half are women and two are both. Sorry Labour Party, but if this doesn't explode your "we are the party of modern representative politics", nothing will.

    It looks as if we will have the first ethnic PM or third woman PM ( all conservatives )

    I think Labour's problem is the unions. When it comes to election planning it becomes a beauty contest - who can attract the most cash from their trade union. And too many unions are very white male and wealthy. Yes I know the Tories are heavily that as well, but they get outside funding. Labour candidates need cash and that cash comes from unions who advance their own people.

    Its not as if the first BAME PM and/or third female PM will make a positive difference to the Tories if it is Zahawi or Braverman or Truss. Pick a mentalist, or better still continuity Boris and the party is doomed. But what opportunity there is within the selection process to actually have choice!

    I still want the party removed from power, regardless of who wins. But a Badenoch government excites me - and I literally didn't know who she was until yesterday - because she would modernise the political discourse massively.

    Brexit was - in a significant part - a vote to send the foreigners home, to remove the outsiders who had brought the country down. And here is Olukemi Olufunto Adegoke, who returned to her native UK from her ancestral Nigeria age 16 to escape the situation over there, did A-Levels whilst working in McDonalds, before going on to work in IT and Finance. Now Kemi Badenoch she represents everything that is the *opposite* of the nasty insular whiter Britain that so many voted for. And don't tell this leave voter that they didn't. They bloody did.
    It does raise an interesting question though as to how come the Conservative Party, without all female/minority shortlists have been able to get so many women and minorities right to the very top of the party (and not just padding out the backbenches) . . . but how come the union leaders are all '[white] male and wealthy'.

    Why are the unions so unrepresentative?

    PS "they didn't".
    Door after door after door after door. Talking to white voters in an almost entirely white British area being told there are too many foreigners. As I said - a "nasty insular whiter Britain". You can say that I didn't have those appalling conversations all you like. I did. And there is reams of evidence and reportage from the time backing that up.

    Its just that people don't want to be associated with racism and their petty bigotry and jingoist friends. I can understand that. Its not so much that people are racist - reality is far more subtle than that. Its that they dislike the other. Whether that is Europeans or non-whites or people not born in Yorkshire or people who like ballet or whatever. I - like you - am a white man who voted to leave. I - like you did not do so for any of the reasons I just listed. We are not racist or bigoted or bitter. But all the people who are voted leave. That doesn't mean that all leavers are racist, just that all racists voted leave. Why is that hard to grasp?
    It's not hard to grasp that some people are racists, but they are a minority. If only racists had voted Leave then Remain would have won a mammoth landslide.
    Tbf to RP he's very clearly said not all leavers are racist.
    Not even a majority of leave voters are racist. But all the racists voted leave. And they have poisoned the well so that now we have this horrible insular us vs Yerp antagonism. As they get richer than us due to the decisions we have made after leaving the EU I fear this will get worse - with the wrong new Tory leader.

    Or we can have a Sunak or Badenoch and reclaim the modernising zeal we had under Cameron and before him Blair.
    Just to say, because this has triggered some criticism, that as a leave voter I agree with you that more or less all racists will have voted leave. I think all leave voters need to be aware of that. My biggest issue when I voted was the metaphorical company I was keeping and it pained me to deliver them a victory.

    Yes/no referendums are divisive and result in many strange bedfellows on either side of the divide. I was more concerned of the inevitable departure of the Cameron/Osborne government which I generally liked, particularly when they were in coaltion with the Lib Dems.
    There was something wonderfully modernising and refreshing about that government - despite some horrendous economic hair-shirted misery. There was a feel good factor about the social changes which I hadn't felt since the initial Blair government.

    The Tories have the opportunity to bring that back, to be a modern party leading a modern country. Or alternately go nasty and insular.
    Completely agree. The election of Badenoch, for example, would change the image of the Tories forever, possibly even the image of the country. I personally think that she is still a bit raw and inexperienced but what has to come out of this is a relaunch of the Cameron makeover brought up to date. A reversion to the nasty party would be fatal. For me that means no Truss, no Zahawi and no Braverman. I am fairly relaxed about any of the others.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    darkage said:

    darkage said:

    Re the racism discussion FPT:

    There are definitely large pockets of closet racism dotted around the country. Usually in very white areas where there is little contact with, or experience of, black or ethnic people.

    Many of those with racist views know better than to express those views too openly, and I expect that adds to their feelings of threat and alienation.

    It slips out from time to time though, like the woman whose house we went to look at to potentially buy who whispered to us that it was a nice area with 'no blacks or asians nearby'.

    Sure, it's an anecdote but not an isolated one.

    I should just add re racism and Leave, that I fully acknowledge that the majority of those who voted leave, and certainly those on here, are not racist.

    I think racism is universal, there are just varying levels of self-awareness of it. We are probably just wired to make judgements about people based on physical characteristics and it is unlikely that we can actually be rewired to work a different way. We can try.

    (edited)
    I think that if a multi racial society is to actually succeed, there needs to be a bit more realism about our human flaws. You also need to tackle racism not just by white people, but between other racial groups. There is not much sign of this type of thinking taking place on the left, it will probably have to come from the political right.
    I don't think racism is universal, though I think xenophobia (in the classic meaning of the word) can be. Fear of the unknown is more universal and real than either racism or homosexuality etc which are both dated concepts that can and should be both tackled and allowed fade away.

    Children that grow up in a mixed race environment, without racist parents or adult influences, won't "naturally" be racist, because the very concept would be alien to them. If all your life you've had white, brown and yellow skinned friends then the idea of racism should be as absurd as being "naturally" discriminatory against people who have yellow, brown or red hair.
    But this is the problem with identity politics. It encourages people to continually 'deconstruct' multiracial societies to look for racism. There is no utopia at the end of it, just permanent conflict; which ultimately actually weakens the society when considered as a whole.
    But provides great business and lots of jobs, for those stoking the division.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,015

    What is fascinating about this leadership election is the sheer spread of candidates and outlooks and positions.

    At one extreme a vision of a fictional past led by Braverman. Break poor people on the wheel. Tax cuts for decent people. Put the gayers and the trannies and the haters back in their box where decent people can look down on them.

    At the other extreme a vision of a dynamic future led by Badenoch. 2020s Britain as personified by a female black migrant with braided hair and a clear vision for how to respect people who who they are without having to harang or belittle like equivalent Labour people do.

    What is extraordinary is that half the field are BAME, half are women and two are both. Sorry Labour Party, but if this doesn't explode your "we are the party of modern representative politics", nothing will.

    It looks as if we will have the first ethnic PM or third woman PM ( all conservatives )

    I think Labour's problem is the unions. When it comes to election planning it becomes a beauty contest - who can attract the most cash from their trade union. And too many unions are very white male and wealthy. Yes I know the Tories are heavily that as well, but they get outside funding. Labour candidates need cash and that cash comes from unions who advance their own people.

    Its not as if the first BAME PM and/or third female PM will make a positive difference to the Tories if it is Zahawi or Braverman or Truss. Pick a mentalist, or better still continuity Boris and the party is doomed. But what opportunity there is within the selection process to actually have choice!

    I still want the party removed from power, regardless of who wins. But a Badenoch government excites me - and I literally didn't know who she was until yesterday - because she would modernise the political discourse massively.

    Brexit was - in a significant part - a vote to send the foreigners home, to remove the outsiders who had brought the country down. And here is Olukemi Olufunto Adegoke, who returned to her native UK from her ancestral Nigeria age 16 to escape the situation over there, did A-Levels whilst working in McDonalds, before going on to work in IT and Finance. Now Kemi Badenoch she represents everything that is the *opposite* of the nasty insular whiter Britain that so many voted for. And don't tell this leave voter that they didn't. They bloody did.
    It does raise an interesting question though as to how come the Conservative Party, without all female/minority shortlists have been able to get so many women and minorities right to the very top of the party (and not just padding out the backbenches) . . . but how come the union leaders are all '[white] male and wealthy'.

    Why are the unions so unrepresentative?

    PS "they didn't".
    Door after door after door after door. Talking to white voters in an almost entirely white British area being told there are too many foreigners. As I said - a "nasty insular whiter Britain". You can say that I didn't have those appalling conversations all you like. I did. And there is reams of evidence and reportage from the time backing that up.

    Its just that people don't want to be associated with racism and their petty bigotry and jingoist friends. I can understand that. Its not so much that people are racist - reality is far more subtle than that. Its that they dislike the other. Whether that is Europeans or non-whites or people not born in Yorkshire or people who like ballet or whatever. I - like you - am a white man who voted to leave. I - like you did not do so for any of the reasons I just listed. We are not racist or bigoted or bitter. But all the people who are voted leave. That doesn't mean that all leavers are racist, just that all racists voted leave. Why is that hard to grasp?
    Because it isn't true?

    I know of Remain voters who voted Remain because they were comfortable with free movement of Europeans filling labour voids but not Commonwealth/whole world.

    Your anecdote assumes it was bigotry that was meant rather than volume.
    My anecdote says that all the bigots voted leave but not everyone who voted leave is a bigot. Its not that difficult to grasp. Unless you are so closed-minded as to think that what you think is what all right-minded people think because you are always right.
    But your anecdote is bollocks.
    My anecdote is my experience knocking endless doorsteps. What the good people of Thornaby and Ingleby Barwick told me when I spoke to them. Unless you were there having those conversations you cannot possibly know whether it is bollocks or not.

    Essentially you are calling me a liar. If you think I am lying why not just say so clearly and distinctly?
    I don't think you're lying, except maybe to yourself. You've self-radicalised since switching sides on the issue, which is the only reason you can write such obvious untruths as "all the bigots voted leave".

    Many people, including some on this site, were making pro-Remain arguments at the time that Leave would mean increased immigration from outside Europe and that free movement was good since it only applied to Europeans. That was a racist argument, and yet you have claimed "all the bigots voted Leave".

    Its bollocks. Its also as someone else said, "Jews don't count" bollocks too.

    If you said that some people who voted Leave did so for racist reasons, then that would be true, as too did some who voted Remain. But to say "all" Leave voters were racist, or "all" racists voted Leave is complete hogwash.
    Its very very simple. Even for someone who takes as ludicrously as entrenched a position as you.

    I spoke to literally hundreds of people during that campaign. Who sang the same jingoistic tune. It is lived experience. For you to call this "bollocks" is to say that I am lying. Making it up, or now "lying to myself".

    I was there having those conversations. You was not. So you have no clue what happened, yet can arrogantly tell me what really happened (that these did not happen but I have imagined them having been "self-radicalised".)

    Silly boy. You are so conceited you almost sound like HY.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,414
    Tugendhat giving some comments about defence spending and referred to being against “bean counting.” Journalists pretty swift in interpreting that as a dig at Sunak.

    Is there something in the Wallace rumours? Feels he is flirting around it a bit.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    DavidL said:

    biggles said:

    FPT:

    What is fascinating about this leadership election is the sheer spread of candidates and outlooks and positions.

    At one extreme a vision of a fictional past led by Braverman. Break poor people on the wheel. Tax cuts for decent people. Put the gayers and the trannies and the haters back in their box where decent people can look down on them.

    At the other extreme a vision of a dynamic future led by Badenoch. 2020s Britain as personified by a female black migrant with braided hair and a clear vision for how to respect people who who they are without having to harang or belittle like equivalent Labour people do.

    What is extraordinary is that half the field are BAME, half are women and two are both. Sorry Labour Party, but if this doesn't explode your "we are the party of modern representative politics", nothing will.

    It looks as if we will have the first ethnic PM or third woman PM ( all conservatives )

    I think Labour's problem is the unions. When it comes to election planning it becomes a beauty contest - who can attract the most cash from their trade union. And too many unions are very white male and wealthy. Yes I know the Tories are heavily that as well, but they get outside funding. Labour candidates need cash and that cash comes from unions who advance their own people.

    Its not as if the first BAME PM and/or third female PM will make a positive difference to the Tories if it is Zahawi or Braverman or Truss. Pick a mentalist, or better still continuity Boris and the party is doomed. But what opportunity there is within the selection process to actually have choice!

    I still want the party removed from power, regardless of who wins. But a Badenoch government excites me - and I literally didn't know who she was until yesterday - because she would modernise the political discourse massively.

    Brexit was - in a significant part - a vote to send the foreigners home, to remove the outsiders who had brought the country down. And here is Olukemi Olufunto Adegoke, who returned to her native UK from her ancestral Nigeria age 16 to escape the situation over there, did A-Levels whilst working in McDonalds, before going on to work in IT and Finance. Now Kemi Badenoch she represents everything that is the *opposite* of the nasty insular whiter Britain that so many voted for. And don't tell this leave voter that they didn't. They bloody did.
    It does raise an interesting question though as to how come the Conservative Party, without all female/minority shortlists have been able to get so many women and minorities right to the very top of the party (and not just padding out the backbenches) . . . but how come the union leaders are all '[white] male and wealthy'.

    Why are the unions so unrepresentative?

    PS "they didn't".
    Door after door after door after door. Talking to white voters in an almost entirely white British area being told there are too many foreigners. As I said - a "nasty insular whiter Britain". You can say that I didn't have those appalling conversations all you like. I did. And there is reams of evidence and reportage from the time backing that up.

    Its just that people don't want to be associated with racism and their petty bigotry and jingoist friends. I can understand that. Its not so much that people are racist - reality is far more subtle than that. Its that they dislike the other. Whether that is Europeans or non-whites or people not born in Yorkshire or people who like ballet or whatever. I - like you - am a white man who voted to leave. I - like you did not do so for any of the reasons I just listed. We are not racist or bigoted or bitter. But all the people who are voted leave. That doesn't mean that all leavers are racist, just that all racists voted leave. Why is that hard to grasp?
    It's not hard to grasp that some people are racists, but they are a minority. If only racists had voted Leave then Remain would have won a mammoth landslide.
    Tbf to RP he's very clearly said not all leavers are racist.
    Not even a majority of leave voters are racist. But all the racists voted leave. And they have poisoned the well so that now we have this horrible insular us vs Yerp antagonism. As they get richer than us due to the decisions we have made after leaving the EU I fear this will get worse - with the wrong new Tory leader.

    Or we can have a Sunak or Badenoch and reclaim the modernising zeal we had under Cameron and before him Blair.
    Just to say, because this has triggered some criticism, that as a leave voter I agree with you that more or less all racists will have voted leave. I think all leave voters need to be aware of that. My biggest issue when I voted was the metaphorical company I was keeping and it pained me to deliver them a victory.

    Yes/no referendums are divisive and result in many strange bedfellows on either side of the divide. I was more concerned of the inevitable departure of the Cameron/Osborne government which I generally liked, particularly when they were in coaltion with the Lib Dems.
    There was something wonderfully modernising and refreshing about that government - despite some horrendous economic hair-shirted misery. There was a feel good factor about the social changes which I hadn't felt since the initial Blair government.

    The Tories have the opportunity to bring that back, to be a modern party leading a modern country. Or alternately go nasty and insular.
    Doing a Cameron reheat is a dead end. It has to be different.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,774

    From what I've seen Rishi does seem to have been quiet on Ukraine. Surprising really because it would have given him the chance to burnish his leadership credentials. And given the central bank asset freezing, sanctions, Chelsea sale it is not as if he wasn't involved in some way.

    He might not want it brought up if he is fearing a Wallace exocet at some point (to mix my wars up slightly).
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 885
    Icarus said:

    What is the qualification for a vote as a Conservative party member? How long have you had to have been a member On what date must your subs have been paid ? What about people who are late payers? How big is the electorate?

    Answering my own question: new members (if any) will not be eligible to vote:
    "Members play an active role in the Party, can attend our annual Conference and receive voting rights in Party elections after 3 months of Membership. "
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884
    Selebian said:

    darkage said:

    Re the racism discussion FPT:

    There are definitely large pockets of closet racism dotted around the country. Usually in very white areas where there is little contact with, or experience of, black or ethnic people.

    Many of those with racist views know better than to express those views too openly, and I expect that adds to their feelings of threat and alienation.

    It slips out from time to time though, like the woman whose house we went to look at to potentially buy who whispered to us that it was a nice area with 'no blacks or asians nearby'.

    Sure, it's an anecdote but not an isolated one.

    I should just add re racism and Leave, that I fully acknowledge that the majority of those who voted leave, and certainly those on here, are not racist.

    I think racism is universal, there are just varying levels of self-awareness of it. We are probably just wired to make judgements about people based on physical characteristics and it is unlikely that we can actually be rewired to work a different way. We can try.

    (edited)
    I think that if a multi racial society is to actually succeed, there needs to be a bit more realism about our human flaws. You also need to tackle racism not just by white people, but between other racial groups. There is not much sign of this type of thinking taking place on the left, it will probably have to come from the political right.
    I don't think racism is universal, though I think xenophobia (in the classic meaning of the word) can be. Fear of the unknown is more universal and real than either racism or homosexuality etc which are both dated concepts that can and should be both tackled and allowed fade away.

    Children that grow up in a mixed race environment, without racist parents or adult influences, won't "naturally" be racist, because the very concept would be alien to them. If all your life you've had white, brown and yellow skinned friends then the idea of racism should be as absurd as being "naturally" discriminatory against people who have yellow, brown or red hair.
    I liked the parent post, because there's something in that - we all have prejudices*, whether it amounts ot racism depends on your definition for that.

    Young children though, are largely free of that. They accept the world as it is. My son doesn't notice that some of his friends at playgroup are not white, it just doesn't register any more than them having a differnt hair colour. He doesn't register that it's in any way unusual that one of his uncles lives with another uncle, rather than an aunt. We learn these things through others, through the media and - of course - through family and friends, I guess.

    *call them unconscious biases, maybe :wink:
    We are children of our times. My dad is 83. He grew up during the Second World War. He is sometimes racist. I grew up 35 years later, but my medium size Wiltshire village had no one who wasn’t white, and frankly most of the people who lived their could trace their roots back to within 10 miles of the same village.
    How different is that from living in a multicultural city and growing up with all races? It’s huge.
    I don’t think most people are that nasty generally. In person most people are warm and friendly to almost anyone else. Something like Brexit and the mass immigration from Eastern Europe changing the characters of people’s towns (such as the town my dad grew up) cause tensions on a wider scale. It’s also easy for lies and simplistic arguments to be made.
    ‘You can’t see your go because of all the foreigners’
    ‘Foreigners get first dibs on council housing’
    And so on.
    Sometimes its even true.
    For what it’s worth I think many more leave voters were a lot more sophisticated than @RochdalePioneers believes. There were lots of reasons to vote to leave. I detested the lack of proper democracy in the EU. The pointless two locations. For years not getting accounts signed off.
    But I still voted remain, as broadly I thought it in the nations best interests. I still do.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,343

    biggles said:

    FPT:

    What is fascinating about this leadership election is the sheer spread of candidates and outlooks and positions.

    At one extreme a vision of a fictional past led by Braverman. Break poor people on the wheel. Tax cuts for decent people. Put the gayers and the trannies and the haters back in their box where decent people can look down on them.

    At the other extreme a vision of a dynamic future led by Badenoch. 2020s Britain as personified by a female black migrant with braided hair and a clear vision for how to respect people who who they are without having to harang or belittle like equivalent Labour people do.

    What is extraordinary is that half the field are BAME, half are women and two are both. Sorry Labour Party, but if this doesn't explode your "we are the party of modern representative politics", nothing will.

    It looks as if we will have the first ethnic PM or third woman PM ( all conservatives )

    I think Labour's problem is the unions. When it comes to election planning it becomes a beauty contest - who can attract the most cash from their trade union. And too many unions are very white male and wealthy. Yes I know the Tories are heavily that as well, but they get outside funding. Labour candidates need cash and that cash comes from unions who advance their own people.

    Its not as if the first BAME PM and/or third female PM will make a positive difference to the Tories if it is Zahawi or Braverman or Truss. Pick a mentalist, or better still continuity Boris and the party is doomed. But what opportunity there is within the selection process to actually have choice!

    I still want the party removed from power, regardless of who wins. But a Badenoch government excites me - and I literally didn't know who she was until yesterday - because she would modernise the political discourse massively.

    Brexit was - in a significant part - a vote to send the foreigners home, to remove the outsiders who had brought the country down. And here is Olukemi Olufunto Adegoke, who returned to her native UK from her ancestral Nigeria age 16 to escape the situation over there, did A-Levels whilst working in McDonalds, before going on to work in IT and Finance. Now Kemi Badenoch she represents everything that is the *opposite* of the nasty insular whiter Britain that so many voted for. And don't tell this leave voter that they didn't. They bloody did.
    It does raise an interesting question though as to how come the Conservative Party, without all female/minority shortlists have been able to get so many women and minorities right to the very top of the party (and not just padding out the backbenches) . . . but how come the union leaders are all '[white] male and wealthy'.

    Why are the unions so unrepresentative?

    PS "they didn't".
    Door after door after door after door. Talking to white voters in an almost entirely white British area being told there are too many foreigners. As I said - a "nasty insular whiter Britain". You can say that I didn't have those appalling conversations all you like. I did. And there is reams of evidence and reportage from the time backing that up.

    Its just that people don't want to be associated with racism and their petty bigotry and jingoist friends. I can understand that. Its not so much that people are racist - reality is far more subtle than that. Its that they dislike the other. Whether that is Europeans or non-whites or people not born in Yorkshire or people who like ballet or whatever. I - like you - am a white man who voted to leave. I - like you did not do so for any of the reasons I just listed. We are not racist or bigoted or bitter. But all the people who are voted leave. That doesn't mean that all leavers are racist, just that all racists voted leave. Why is that hard to grasp?
    It's not hard to grasp that some people are racists, but they are a minority. If only racists had voted Leave then Remain would have won a mammoth landslide.
    Tbf to RP he's very clearly said not all leavers are racist.
    Not even a majority of leave voters are racist. But all the racists voted leave. And they have poisoned the well so that now we have this horrible insular us vs Yerp antagonism. As they get richer than us due to the decisions we have made after leaving the EU I fear this will get worse - with the wrong new Tory leader.

    Or we can have a Sunak or Badenoch and reclaim the modernising zeal we had under Cameron and before him Blair.
    Just to say, because this has triggered some criticism, that as a leave voter I agree with you that more or less all racists will have voted leave. I think all leave voters need to be aware of that. My biggest issue when I voted was the metaphorical company I was keeping and it pained me to deliver them a victory.

    I also voted leave.

    All racists voted leave.
    Not all leave voters are racist (I'd say the majority).

    Its not difficult. Yet the majority of leave winners don't seem willing to admit that millions of their fellow leavers voted so because they disliked people who weren't them.
    It's just an inadequate generalisation. Leavers might say that Remainers voted to affirm a system with a dangerous democratic deficit, massive power imbalance, and rich white man's protectionist conspiracy for the benefit of bankers and plutocrats responsible for impoverishing third world farmers by exclusion.

    But probably some of them had higher motives. Let's stop being judgemental.

  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    On the economy: unfunded tax cuts are not sensible. But given we already have one of the lowest rates of corporation tax in the west I struggle to see why reducing it further will help close the average income gap with our neighbours. I would like to see a candidate serious about dealing with the prohibitive cost of housing, low median incomes and the poor level of productivity and investment.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996
    Sandpit said:

    darkage said:

    darkage said:

    Re the racism discussion FPT:

    There are definitely large pockets of closet racism dotted around the country. Usually in very white areas where there is little contact with, or experience of, black or ethnic people.

    Many of those with racist views know better than to express those views too openly, and I expect that adds to their feelings of threat and alienation.

    It slips out from time to time though, like the woman whose house we went to look at to potentially buy who whispered to us that it was a nice area with 'no blacks or asians nearby'.

    Sure, it's an anecdote but not an isolated one.

    I should just add re racism and Leave, that I fully acknowledge that the majority of those who voted leave, and certainly those on here, are not racist.

    I think racism is universal, there are just varying levels of self-awareness of it. We are probably just wired to make judgements about people based on physical characteristics and it is unlikely that we can actually be rewired to work a different way. We can try.

    (edited)
    I think that if a multi racial society is to actually succeed, there needs to be a bit more realism about our human flaws. You also need to tackle racism not just by white people, but between other racial groups. There is not much sign of this type of thinking taking place on the left, it will probably have to come from the political right.
    I don't think racism is universal, though I think xenophobia (in the classic meaning of the word) can be. Fear of the unknown is more universal and real than either racism or homosexuality etc which are both dated concepts that can and should be both tackled and allowed fade away.

    Children that grow up in a mixed race environment, without racist parents or adult influences, won't "naturally" be racist, because the very concept would be alien to them. If all your life you've had white, brown and yellow skinned friends then the idea of racism should be as absurd as being "naturally" discriminatory against people who have yellow, brown or red hair.
    But this is the problem with identity politics. It encourages people to continually 'deconstruct' multiracial societies to look for racism. There is no utopia at the end of it, just permanent conflict; which ultimately actually weakens the society when considered as a whole.
    But provides great business and lots of jobs, for those stoking the division.
    Like ministers for Brexit, Brexit Opportunities, trade envoys to non-EU ex-colonies, government university speech censors, ministers whose job is to persecute the woke, etc etc.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited July 2022

    Is "All the racists voted Leave" a chapter in Jews Don't Count?

    What does that mean? A looks like a complete non sequitur
This discussion has been closed.