politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » All the signs are that the turnout is large

not_on_fire said:

@numbertwelve Hasn't Salmond said he'll resign if there is a NO victory?

One can hope.

Yes drifting like the proverbial.

Unsure how anyone can have the information so soon to shift the odds so decisively - Betfair herding perhaps?

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

Aaargh

Betfair coming in again

Calm down, what you should do is, compare it to the price 24 hours ago

23 month trend is what its all about ask Mr X

TY TSE - in line with Ave it 44-56

Latest YouGov poll suggests Scottish Referendum exit poll results are 54% No, 46% Yes. Counting underway. No results expected soon

Mike Smithson retweeted
Jon Haworth ‏@JonHaworthSky 4m

Right, I just wanted to see the YouGov. I'm off, though I may check the TV coverage during the night/early morning later.

Goodnight, fellow Britons.

TheScreamingEagles said:

#BREAKING:Latest YouGov poll suggests Scottish Referendum exit poll results are 54% No, 46% Yes. Counting underway. No results expected soon

And then there's the postal votes.

foxinsoxuk said:

hamiltonace said:

Looks like not enough young men went out to vote for yes to win. Most yes voters are happy with a close loss. This will ensure the devomax they wanted. In Glasgow the vote went down old firm lines. I have not met a Ctic no voter or a rangers yes voter.

It would be funny if Celtic vs Salzburg on telly was the difference. Bread and circuses!

Don't be stupid , it was 2 hours out of a 15 hour window

TheScreamingEagles said:

. No results expected soon

I see what you did there

MikeK said:

Whatever happens, UKIP marches on. This Scottish vote has been a real distraction from the main political battle that will reshape England.

It'll have to learn how to fight a ground war first...

MikeK said:

Whatever happens, UKIP marches on. This Scottish vote has been a real distraction from the main political battle that will reshape England.

Front of the mail should help.

betfair out to 11

SeanT said:

I think that's almost sealed it. Unless the postals are massively YES??

The Editor of the Sunday Herald tweeted earlier that the postal votes were breaking strongly to YES.

£ rockets to 164.25

(Disenfranchised) Scots work colleague wants Yes so as to inject a dose of the cold light of economic reality to our Caledonian chums. Reckons it will swing them rightwards

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 3s
To underline. Tonight's YouGov IndyRef survey IS NOT AN EXIT POLL

If it's a No I sincerely hope there will be a genuine debate on the future of the constitution of these islands and not a rushed implementation of devo-more which doesn't address the position of England.

Any proposals should have as one of their fundamental considerations the future of Northern Ireland. As things stand the only conceivable definitive solution is the eventual reunification of NI with the Republic but if we had a true Federation of the British Isles (with a ready made cool acronym) then the alternative of Ireland reunifying with the UK would start to become thinkable. We'd need serious reform of the monarchy and probably the abolition of the house of Lords to make this possible. I'd suggest putting the federal government in Manchester so that we could also help rebalance the country.

It isn't even a proper exit poll and could be quite wrong. Too close to call - still.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scotland’s final referendum result now looks likely to come in at 54% for No, 46% for Yes. Confirmation is expected at around breakfast time.

The Sun’s pollsters surveyed almost 2,000 Scots after they had been to the polling stations, and detected a small defection from Yes to No - doubling the unionists’ four point lead on the eve of the historic vote on Wednesday night.

Is there a link for this?

Confirms the trend in the last 24 hours with the final two polls showing No +6, up from No +4.

If there are a few shy Nos it could well be close to 45/55.

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

HYUFD said:

Yougov 54 No 46 Yes

Anyone planning on opening a book on Gordon Brown being next first minister in Scotland.

When the sh*t hits the fan he is brilliant, it is the day to day grind of running a country he wasn't suited for. Bit like Churchill really.

you really are a loony

Not sure the YouGov 'exit' poll is really telling us that much beyond the normal polls of the past few days.
A YES vote will require significant mis-weighting / unrepresentative samples in the polls. The same was true this morning. And still entirely possible, with the YES odds of 14+ looking much too high.

Whatever the result. Isn't this marvellous that we can all chatter away in total freedom to say what we think with our fellow citizens on such an important event ? There must be people lurking and following us in envy in less fortunate parts of the world. It's great. It's precious.

End of pompous post.

Western isles aeroplane grounded due to fog fishing boat required

Howard said:

It isn't even a proper exit poll and could be quite wrong. Too close to call - still.

They said that about Culloden

SouthamObserver said:

Can I now dare to hope that I am about to blow a few hundred quid and enter the pantheon of crappest tipsters in history?

You mean you left at some time???

SeanT said:

malcolmg said:

AndyJS said:

Oh dear, Salmond.

bit premature

Not looking great, tho, is it?

no different from how it looked earlier , why do you think otherwise, nothing counted yet so its merely speculation

Alex Salmond "The people of Scotland have spoken"........."The Bastards"

dr_spyn said:

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 3s
To underline. Tonight's YouGov IndyRef survey IS NOT AN EXIT POLL

No, I believe it's based on re-contacting the people who participated in their final pre-vote poll? But it does bear out the earlier pollis which suggested a modest late swing to no.

New Thread

The quid races to $164.5

I didn't rely on an exit poll for my competition prediction. As soon as Jack's ARSE said it would be 40/60 I thought the game was over. Even so there are still a few flapheads here predicting gloom, doom and more or it.

However I may set my alarm clock for 05.00 tomorrow to see what has actually transpired. One of the benefits of being made redundant is not having to get up early for work!

I sincerely hope the Scots have voted no but then I hope our politicians seek to understand why and then address their concerns IF that is possible.

RUMOURS of postal votes in the Edinburgh West area being:
YES - 23%
NO - 77%

Always been surprised by this "conventional opinion" that 16-17 years olds should be strongly yes. Thousands of young Scots leave Scotland every year to travel, to go to university or just to live life. Some because they want to permanently move away from Scotland, some despite wanting to return later. But one thing these people haven't decided is that their future is restricted to Scotland. Many 16-17 year olds are very close to having to make these life changing decisions and Independence, leaving the EU (even if temporarily) etc etc couldn't come at a worse time for them. They would be the ones most negatively affected by the turmoil, even if it might benefit Scotland in the long run. It's trite and patronising to assume that they are not mature or capable enough to consider this.

Those most in favour of Scottish Independence are those who have committed themselves to Scotland for the long term. Those who may have moved away when younger but are now settled permanently. 16-17 year olds don't want to be restricted by unnecessary borders. And such restrictions would be inevitable once the UK became a foreign country.

Always been surprised by this "conventional opinion" that 16-17 years olds should be strongly yes. Thousands of young Scots leave Scotland every year to travel, to go to university or just to live life. Some because they want to permanently move away from Scotland, some despite wanting to return later. But one thing these people haven't decided is that their future is restricted to Scotland. Many 16-17 year olds are very close to having to make these life changing decisions and Independence, leaving the EU (even if temporarily) etc etc couldn't come at a worse time for them. They would be the ones most negatively affected by the turmoil, even if it might benefit Scotland in the long run. It's trite and patronising to assume that they are not mature or capable enough to consider this.

Those most in favour of Scottish Independence are those who have committed themselves to Scotland for the long term. Those who may have moved away when younger but are now settled permanently. 16-17 year olds don't want to be restricted by unnecessary borders. And such restrictions would be inevitable once the UK became a foreign country.

Always been surprised by this "conventional opinion" that 16-17 years olds should be strongly yes. Thousands of young Scots leave Scotland every year to travel, to go to university or just to live life. Some because they want to permanently move away from Scotland, some despite wanting to return later. But one thing these people haven't decided is that their future is restricted to Scotland. Many 16-17 year olds are very close to having to make these life changing decisions and Independence, leaving the EU (even if temporarily) etc etc couldn't come at a worse time for them. They would be the ones most negatively affected by the turmoil, even if it might benefit Scotland in the long run. It's trite and patronising to assume that they are not mature or capable enough to consider this.

Those most in favour of Scottish Independence are those who have committed themselves to Scotland for the long term. Those who may have moved away when younger but are now settled permanently. 16-17 year olds don't want to be restricted by unnecessary borders. And such restrictions would be inevitable once the UK became a foreign country.