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Rishi is clear favourite after a morning of campaign launches – politicalbetting.com

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  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,073
    edited July 2022
    dixiedean said:

    The prospect of a PM setting out on a promise to slash the State would be a Labour dream right now.

    It’s not like anyone on public sector payroll can’t hear these threats to their job, and voters these threats to their services - yet so many posters on PB convinced Tories to get a poll bounce from this extensive media coverage.

    Even cuts to fuel duty benefits richer than poorer people, let alone Javid’s promise to cut NHS expenditure to pay for income tax cuts.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,481
    Mr. Roger, the Labour VONC is to remind us that Starmer's a bit slow and unimpressive.

    Mr. Urquhart, not too surprising. He did make a seriously bad call, although Mercedes (for all their bleating) had screwed up their strategy. Had they not played safety first, Hamilton would've been on fresher tyres and would've easily retained the lead.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,234
    The markets have REALLY soured on Hunt and Zahawi, both way way out at 3+ figures.
    Javid was already there.

    £66 now lost by someone or other on Chishti at 1000.0
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,806
    IanB2 said:

    The theory that the fall of communism removed the threat of ‘the workers’ turning toward an alternative economic model and hence removed the imperative for western governments to ensure that the benefits of capitalist growth were spread reasonably fairly remains persuasive, even though there isn’t much empirical evidence to support it.
    I’ve never encountered that theory. At first glance, it makes some sense, even if the process is unconscious
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Roger said:

    Anyone know what this VONC tomorrow is supposed to achieve?

    Labour are looking pretty good at the moment looking on high at this Tory fiasco.
    Why would they want to become embroiled without any obvious end goal?

    Just so they can force a whole bunch of spineless Tories to confidence Boris – easy pickings for election lit.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,821
    Carnyx said:

    The excitement? Buying and selling? I dunno. Not like me - put money in a unit trust and leave it etc. But Leon confirms it is a Thing. Personally, if I wanted cheap thrills, I'd rather go and have a walk along the Tweed and a few pints in the pubs in Peebles.
    Different thing. What you are doing there is giving yourself a sense of pleasure and wellbeing and (I think) generating serotonin, rather than giving yourself a little dopamine hit.
  • It would be really funny if Chishti has 50 undeclared supporters
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,109

    Badenoch was born in Wimbledon.
    So she’s migrated north of the river?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    I hear the Welsh mountains are nervous about their inclusion. And the Angel of the North is considering his options.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    edited July 2022
    The US and I think Switzerland set the “frontier” of productive possibility. Wealth is generated and it is then down to how you want to distribute it.

    You then have Germany - Scandinavia - the Low Countries - and perhaps Northern Italy.

    Britain as a whole is now down alongside Spain and the Baltics and will likely be overtaken by them in coming years.

    The great mystery is why given the UK’s considerable advantages - English language; good universities; London’s position in the global economy; demography not as bad as some others - this has happened.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Roger said:

    Anyone know what this VONC tomorrow is supposed to achieve?

    Labour are looking pretty good at the moment looking on high at this Tory fiasco.
    Why would they want to become embroiled without any obvious end goal?

    They seem to want to tie the Tories to Bozo. But hes going.
    The risk is how many will see them looking like student politicians and desperate attention seekers whilst the adults select a new PM.
    If they forced a GE, Bozo remains PM.
    So, essentially, they want a GE. A truism.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,507
    IanB2 said:

    The theory that the fall of communism removed the threat of ‘the workers’ turning toward an alternative economic model and hence removed the imperative for western governments to ensure that the benefits of capitalist growth were spread reasonably fairly remains persuasive, even though there isn’t much empirical evidence to support it.
    I think, though, we'd have seen the same had the Eastern bloc continued for another twenty years. Globalisation would still have been a thing (although, Eastern European countries would be excluded form it). Communism was long discredited as an alternative by 1989.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,689

    I haven't come up with a Viz name for Kemi as yet – no offence intended to her by the omission, if she's reading, I'm working on it.

    Kemi Badenough. Capable of losing the next election.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422



    Yeah, well, if the party had listened to me they wouldn't be starting from here. There are no good options.
    So which are the least worst ones?

    I see Truss as continuity Johnson and because of her Remain apostasy now even more Brexiteer in penance - a disaster in pursuit of headlines

    Sunak is a smooth operator but I’m yet to be convinced there’s much of substance there - we need ideas, not slogans. He’s also going to spend time rubbishing the record of the last Chancellor but one, which could be awkward.

    I don’t know much about either Mordaunt or Badenoch - but Mordaunt appears to have been imbibing the Stonewall kool-aid, however much she tries to row back from it now. The issue is not the policy per-se - which reasonable people can disagree over, but the apparently unthinking adoption if it and mindless repetition of meaningless slogans.

    I thought Badenoch’s speech impressive and if followed through both a break from the past and a good start. She appears to have more substance than most of them.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    But it's rather telling that Mordaunt wasn't.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405

    What I find fascinating is the reaction of a range of people to the idea of having industries based in the UK.

    A considerable chunk of the progressive types have absorbed the idea that you can't compete on price with "PhDs for $1 a week in China". Despite the fact that there is a small thing called productivity to consider. And you can get someone with a PhD to work for you in China for a dollar a week, either.
    It was globalised capitalism and free trade aka Thatcherism that did this, not "progressive types".
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    My hunch is Javid may struggle to get 20 nominations.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939
    edited July 2022
    I thought this 20 nominations was supposed to cull the field extensively?
    It looks like Shapps and the Chasti bloke only.
    Anyone else unlikely to make it? Javid? Braverman?

    Edit. I see Sandpit has covered this.

    Nine it is then.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,481
    Lots of people have made huge sums with crypto, and the volatility means that can still happen. Problem is, the reverse is true as well. I'd view it akin to gambling, and (if I were inclined to invest, which I am not) only bet what you can afford to lose.

    People viewing it as a sure thing or chasing losses are cruising for a financial bruising, sadly.
  • IanB2 said:

    So she’s migrated north of the river?
    To Nigeria and the USA?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,234

    It would be really funny if Chishti has 50 undeclared supporters

    It wouldn't be funny for whoever's laid him at 1000 on Betfair.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    Roger said:

    Anyone know what this VONC tomorrow is supposed to achieve?

    Labour are looking pretty good at the moment looking on high at this Tory fiasco.
    Why would they want to become embroiled without any obvious end goal?

    Something to put on their leaflets at the next GE - "your MP voted to keep Boris in office in July 2022" - to hide the lack of policies.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Andy_JS said:

    The smart thing for Kemi Badenoch to do now would be to move very slightly to the left. She's got the right-wing vote sewn up already. Patel and Braverman's votes will mostly go her way regardless.

    Conciliatiry Kemi. Kind Kemi. To add to the already marvellous Kudos Kemi.
    Shes awesome. Im in love. Dehenna can wait!
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    dixiedean said:

    The prospect of a PM setting out on a promise to slash the State would be a Labour dream right now.

    They can slash the English state if they like. The Scottish state is not their’s to slash.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,481
    Mr. Dean, to be fair, only three candidates have odds under 5, and only two more have odds under 20.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    jonny83 said:

    Political grandstanding, keeping the pressure on and showing their voter base that they are holding the government to account.

    Waste of time really but political parties do stuff like this.
    Maybe have the debate but scrub the vote at the last minute.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    edited July 2022
    dixiedean said:

    I thought this 20 nominations was supposed to cull the field extensively?
    It looks like Shapps and the Chasti bloke only.
    Anyone else unlikely to make it? Javid? Braverman?

    Zahawi, Hunt, Javid, and Braverman are all going to struggle imo.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,644

    Fair enough. I can see the 'sensible' argument given what we've had but that also seems a bit 'managed decline' to me.

    He also sounds too much like a conglomerate of Ed Miliband and George Osborne.
    Well it's not my Party so my view is of little interest, if any.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    England’s fielding as good as their batting.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,630
    Pulpstar said:

    England's match going about as well as Javid's punt for leadership.

    I'm convinced than ever that only one of the test side and the white ball side can be successful. We are paying the price for winning 4 test matches while chasing in the last innings.

    Alternatively - really bad toss to lose and this could have been India 97 all out...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,234

    Lots of people have made huge sums with crypto, and the volatility means that can still happen. Problem is, the reverse is true as well. I'd view it akin to gambling, and (if I were inclined to invest, which I am not) only bet what you can afford to lose.

    People viewing it as a sure thing or chasing losses are cruising for a financial bruising, sadly.

    If you own 1 bitcoin today and do nothing tommorow you'll own one bitcoin* ;)

    * Unless your exchange goes bust.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405

    It’s not like anyone on public sector payroll can’t hear these threats to their job, and voters these threats to their services - yet so many posters on PB convinced Tories to get a poll bounce from this extensive media coverage.

    Even cuts to fuel duty benefits richer than poorer people, let alone Javid’s promise to cut NHS expenditure to pay for income tax cuts.
    "Slash the state" translates as larger class sizes, more potholes, smaller pensions and longer waiting lists. It only attracts those taxes outweigh their use of public services, or are simply too thick to join the dots.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,507

    It was globalised capitalism and free trade aka Thatcherism that did this, not "progressive types".
    Ideas of what is progressive and conservative have shifted quite a bit over the past thirty years.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Pulpstar said:

    The markets have REALLY soured on Hunt and Zahawi, both way way out at 3+ figures.
    Javid was already there.

    £66 now lost by someone or other on Chishti at 1000.0

    Hunt is yesterdays loser. Javid just too dull. Zahawi lacks broad enough appeal and theres a 'what were you up to?!' aspect
    Chishti is this times Graham Brady.
    All gone by tomorrow
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    The betting market has already decided it's down to 5 candidates: Sunak, Mordaunt, Truss, Tugendhat, Badenoch. Difficult to disagree.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Penny Mordaunt claims she will break through SNP yellow wall in Scotland if she replaces Boris Johnson as Prime Minister

    A front-runner in the race towards becoming Prime Minister has claimed she will ‘turn the tide against the SNP’ in Scotland.

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/penny-mordaunt-claims-she-will-break-through-snp-yellow-wall-in-scotland-if-she-replaces-boris-johnson-as-prime-minister-3764620

    Clueless.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,806

    The US and I think Switzerland set the “frontier” of productive possibility. Wealth is generated and it is then down to how you want to distribute it.

    You then have Germany - Scandinavia - the Low Countries - and perhaps Northern Italy.

    Britain as a whole is now down alongside Spain and the Baltics and will likely be overtaken by them in coming years.

    The great mystery is why given the UK’s considerable advantages - English language; good universities; London’s position in the global economy; demography not as bad as some others - this has happened.

    To put some figures on your insane hyperbole

    GDP per capita

    UK: $46,209

    Spain: $26,238

    Estonia: $21,421

    Latvia: $16,406

    (Source: Trading Economics)
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,630

    It is perfectly allowable to remind the selectorate and the electorate about the volte-face being undertaken by ex-Johnson supporters as they try to "draw a line under" or "move on from" where they were barely a week ago. If I hear anyone else say "we are where we are" I shall.....I shall.... stub my toe!!!
    It is playing politics, but thats what they do. I think if Johnson had any honour he would have resigned properly and left a caretaker in charge - such as the Deputy PM. But we know he has no honour.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,845

    They can slash the English state if they like. The Scottish state is not their’s to slash.
    Dropping the Barnett formula extra funding would be very popular....
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405

    They can slash the English state if they like. The Scottish state is not their’s to slash.
    It would be the final nail in the unionist coffin.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,234
    edited July 2022
    The oddest one I have been able to lay so far this race is Gillian Keegan.

    No idea who she is.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422

    📺 Sky News announced it would hold first Tory leadership TV debate on Monday 18 July

    📺 Then ITV News announced it would hold first Tory leadership TV debate on Sunday 17 July

    📺 Now Channel 4 News has announced it will hold first Tory leadership TV debate on Friday 15 July


    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1546864962605293570
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,073

    Is there anyone here who actually supports Rishi, except as a means to avoid Truss?
    The case for Rishi. As a serious answer.

    1. Anyone but Truss if it’s those two in final two.
    2. Won’t cut taxes until inflation under control (whatever under control means specifically, slashed to 4.4 but stuck like a bad record not under control imo)
    3. No to more borrowing.

    Anyone got anything else?
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    They seem to want to tie the Tories to Bozo. But hes going.
    The risk is how many will see them looking like student politicians and desperate attention seekers whilst the adults select a new PM.
    If they forced a GE, Bozo remains PM.
    So, essentially, they want a GE. A truism.
    Nah, a GE isn't an option since the demise of FTPA. Even if the VONC passed, Boris would stay on as caretaker PM until the Tory leadership contest produces a result.

    The VONC would have made sense before DACOP, but not now.
  • NEW

    First all MP Tory leadership hustings is **tonight**.

    Any candidate with over 20 MPs support will be grilled on their approach to the culture wars including controversial statues and British history by the Common Sense Group of Tory MPs. 1/2
  • Really got their finger on the pulse. WHO CARES
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,109
    dixiedean said:

    The prospect of a PM setting out on a promise to slash the State would be a Labour dream right now.

    Or, to make a wider point, many of the promises and slogans these wanabee PM’s are making now, to woo their geriatric members, will surely be used against them by the opposition parties come the real election.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422

    They can slash the English state if they like. The Scottish state is not their’s to slash.
    So SNP claims of “TORY CUTS!!!” are lies then?

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867

    Kemi was born in London but only because her mother required specialist maternity care.

    She was raised in Nigeria until the age of 16. She even carries a trace of Nigerian in her accent.

    Although I am poles apart from her politically, if she became PM it would something of a cultural shockwave, and that would be quite delightful.

    She would be a huge reset for the government, the Conservative Party and British Politics generally.

    How it would work out in the end I have no idea but it would be interesting to see what happens...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022


    📺 Sky News announced it would hold first Tory leadership TV debate on Monday 18 July

    📺 Then ITV News announced it would hold first Tory leadership TV debate on Sunday 17 July

    📺 Now Channel 4 News has announced it will hold first Tory leadership TV debate on Friday 15 July


    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1546864962605293570

    Does anyone want media-led “debates”, as opposed to party-organised hustings with a TV feed for anyone who wants it?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,073

    The Palace of Westminster is ugly as feck. Knock it down and build some trendy apartments by the river. With the proceeds we can build a new purpose-built facility up north.

    Ugly? The Palace of Westminster is beautiful, like a homage to God. The most important building in the British isles.

    Some of you clearly can’t handle this heat. 🫠
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203

    Really got their finger on the pulse. WHO CARES

    It is deeply troubling to consider what a large chunk of Tory MPs think is important.

    It’s a Catch-22; you have to be mad to win their support, but then you are too mad to win the country. It was the “genius” of Boris that he was able to square that circle.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited July 2022

    Penny Mordaunt claims she will break through SNP yellow wall in Scotland if she replaces Boris Johnson as Prime Minister

    A front-runner in the race towards becoming Prime Minister has claimed she will ‘turn the tide against the SNP’ in Scotland.

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/penny-mordaunt-claims-she-will-break-through-snp-yellow-wall-in-scotland-if-she-replaces-boris-johnson-as-prime-minister-3764620

    Clueless.

    It seems unlikely. If the STories get back to 20/21 ish then they are running hard defence on 5 seats and theres perhaps 4 I can see them throwing resources at, only 2 of which i think are realistic (and require positive recovery from their current freefall)
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,630
    Nigelb said:

    A pedant points out it would need only be two.
    Another pedant points out 'which Great Wall'? As there are lots. The common perception of one, continous wall is very wrong indeed.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    edited July 2022

    Penny Mordaunt claims she will break through SNP yellow wall in Scotland if she replaces Boris Johnson as Prime Minister

    A front-runner in the race towards becoming Prime Minister has claimed she will ‘turn the tide against the SNP’ in Scotland.

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/penny-mordaunt-claims-she-will-break-through-snp-yellow-wall-in-scotland-if-she-replaces-boris-johnson-as-prime-minister-3764620

    Clueless.

    TBF, as we discussed the other day almost any of the chimps at Corstorphine Zoo would do better in Scotland than the PM. So merely improving things isn't much of an aim.

    Have the ScoTories come to any sort of collective viewpoint?

    Edit: missed a bit; "Borders MP John Lamont said he would vote for International Trade Minister Penny Mordaunt while West Aberdeenshire MP Andrew Bowie confirmed he would support former Chancellor Rishi Sunak.

    The remaining four, including Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross, have yet to endorse any of the candidates."
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295

    Kemi was born in London but only because her mother required specialist maternity care.

    She was raised in Nigeria until the age of 16. She even carries a trace of Nigerian in her accent.

    Although I am poles apart from her politically, if she became PM it would something of a cultural shockwave, and that would be quite delightful.

    Politics needs shaking up.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422

    The case for Rishi. As a serious answer.

    1. Anyone but Truss if it’s those two in final two.
    2. Won’t cut taxes until inflation under control (whatever under control means specifically, slashed to 4.4 but stuck like a bad record not under control imo)
    3. No to more borrowing.

    Anyone got anything else?
    He’s an effective communicator with good “emotional intelligence” - unfortunately knowledge of his wealth appears to be outweighing that in the Red Wall.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,507
    Leon said:

    To put some figures on your insane hyperbole

    GDP per capita

    UK: $46,209

    Spain: $26,238

    Estonia: $21,421

    Latvia: $16,406

    (Source: Trading Economics)
    Median incomes would probably show them closer together. Spain, however, was among the countries worst hit in both 2008 and 2020.

    France is probably the best comparitor with the UK. Both in terms of overall income, and in terms of the very wide gap in fortunes between different reasons.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    Sandpit said:

    Does anyone want media-led “debates”, as opposed to party-organised hustings with a TV feed for anyone who wants it?
    The media.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,566

    It was sold to a trust who are trying to do it up (slowly).

    MPs would feel right at home with the leaky roof and the shabby 1960s accommodation blocks nearby.
    NEC 190000 sqm of floor space plus large office areas. No doubt the reconfiguration of an exhibition space would present challenges, but large enough venues are available.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    Sandpit said:

    Guido’s spreadsheet has 180 backers, only half the Parliamentary party so far - including 18 who went for the non-runners Patel and Shapps.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ffqemZ-YOi7AvAw8HbxmMd0vIbsOXLZ7KpAmNQPD2r8/htmlview#gid=0

    Looks like a nine-horse race, with only Chrishti unlikely to be nominated.

    Sunak
    Truss
    Mourdaunt
    Tugendhat
    Badenoch
    Zahawi
    Hunt
    Javid
    Braverman

    The other 180-odd don't have to openly support anyone but even if they do I suspect they will coalesce around the front runners because... jobs innit?

    So I am not convinced Zahawi, Hunt, Javid, and Braverman are going to make it.

    What time do we expect to know btw?
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,273

    NEW

    First all MP Tory leadership hustings is **tonight**.

    Any candidate with over 20 MPs support will be grilled on their approach to the culture wars including controversial statues and British history by the Common Sense Group of Tory MPs. 1/2

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Sense_Group

    This 'Anti Woke' group? Interesting evening ahead for these candidates.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939
    Pulpstar said:

    The oddest one I have been able to lay so far this race is Gillian Keegan.

    No idea who she is.

    Is that most surprising?
    I don't think Ms. Keegan would make the podium for "oddest".
  • Labour lead by 14% in the Red Wall.

    Red Wall Voting Intention (11 July):

    Labour 46% (–)
    Conservative 32% (-3)
    Reform UK 7% (+4)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (+2)
    Green 4% (–)
    Plaid Cymru 0% (-1)
    Other 1% (-1)

    Changes +/- 26-27 June

    The culture wars will surely win these back
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,792

    The case for Rishi. As a serious answer.

    1. Anyone but Truss if it’s those two in final two.
    2. Won’t cut taxes until inflation under control (whatever under control means specifically, slashed to 4.4 but stuck like a bad record not under control imo)
    3. No to more borrowing.

    Anyone got anything else?
    He would almost certainly lose to Labour. I think even Truss (whom I don't like) would have more electoral appeal. Mordaunt is the best hope for Conservative leaning voters. It is a risk because she is unknown, but that is a known unknown.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    jonny83 said:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Sense_Group

    This 'Anti Woke' group? Interesting evening ahead for these candidates.
    This stuff should be trivial for any serious candidate to deal with. When the field is narrowed then they can get on to the difficult stuff.

    It's a bit like the first five questions on WWTBAM?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405
    glw said:

    I have no idea who the members of the Common Sense Group are but I deduce from their name alone that every last one of them is a fool.
    The paradox of Common Sense: people who claim that it informs their thinking usually lack it.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,738


    📺 Sky News announced it would hold first Tory leadership TV debate on Monday 18 July

    📺 Then ITV News announced it would hold first Tory leadership TV debate on Sunday 17 July

    📺 Now Channel 4 News has announced it will hold first Tory leadership TV debate on Friday 15 July


    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1546864962605293570

    Sad to say - I won't be able to watch C4's debate because I will be watching Abba.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,073
    Applicant said:

    Nah, a GE isn't an option since the demise of FTPA. Even if the VONC passed, Boris would stay on as caretaker PM until the Tory leadership contest produces a result.

    The VONC would have made sense before DACOP, but not now.
    Labour are going to raise Boris meeting KGB in secret, Lebvedevs appointment, Boris use of chequers, and Libdems will probe the Tories on claims Boris is the British Harvey Weinstein. The point here is to smear all the Tories in a coating of smelly Boris and force Tory poll % as low as they can,

    That is as far from student politics or pointless, as politics can be.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,338
    Carnyx said:

    TBF, as we discussed the other day almost any of the chimps at Corstorphine Zoo would do better in Scotland than the PM. So merely improving things isn't much of an aim.

    Have the ScoTories come to any sort of collective viewpoint?
    Dunno, but No to Indyref II is bound to figure in it somewhere.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,273

    NEW

    First all MP Tory leadership hustings is **tonight**.

    Any candidate with over 20 MPs support will be grilled on their approach to the culture wars including controversial statues and British history by the Common Sense Group of Tory MPs. 1/2

    Common sense group decide that with a war in Ukraine, a cost of living crisis, fractured relations with our neighbours including problems in NI, and declining standards and confidence in public life that the priority for the next leader is statues. Sounds closer to monster raving loony than common sense to me.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939

    The case for Rishi. As a serious answer.

    1. Anyone but Truss if it’s those two in final two.
    2. Won’t cut taxes until inflation under control (whatever under control means specifically, slashed to 4.4 but stuck like a bad record not under control imo)
    3. No to more borrowing.

    Anyone got anything else?
    4. Thanks to No.10 his negatives are out there.
    5. Has had a serious job at the top of government for a long time.
    6. And related. Your average punter knows who he is. (Although that may not be in his favour).
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,481
    Mr. Sandpit, not a fan of political debates given how they can dominate elections and are wide open to incompetent hosting and groupthink effects. Especially if one or more of those determining the worm (running approval/disapproval) has a very set view.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,792
    jonny83 said:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Sense_Group

    This 'Anti Woke' group? Interesting evening ahead for these candidates.
    Common Sense Group? FFS, bunch of small brained populists no doubt. Politicians are meant to deep thinking not gut instinct gutter politics. The sooner these types of Johnson-apologising-buffoons are marginalised the better.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    edited July 2022
    Carnyx said:

    TBF, as we discussed the other day almost any of the chimps at Corstorphine Zoo would do better in Scotland than the PM. So merely improving things isn't much of an aim.

    Have the ScoTories come to any sort of collective viewpoint?

    Edit: missed a bit; "Borders MP John Lamont said he would vote for International Trade Minister Penny Mordaunt while West Aberdeenshire MP Andrew Bowie confirmed he would support former Chancellor Rishi Sunak.

    The remaining four, including Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross, have yet to endorse any of the candidates."
    Some have declared support but Ross is not saying as he wants to work effectively with whoever wins.
  • KeystoneKeystone Posts: 127
    Andy_JS said:

    Politics needs shaking up.
    The Yorubian Candidate
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    GIN1138 said:

    She would be a huge reset for the government, the Conservative Party and British Politics generally.

    How it would work out in the end I have no idea but it would be interesting to see what happens...
    I suspect the way it works out for whoever wins is heavy defeat at the next GE because... the economy.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,073

    Penny Mordaunt claims she will break through SNP yellow wall in Scotland if she replaces Boris Johnson as Prime Minister

    A front-runner in the race towards becoming Prime Minister has claimed she will ‘turn the tide against the SNP’ in Scotland.

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/penny-mordaunt-claims-she-will-break-through-snp-yellow-wall-in-scotland-if-she-replaces-boris-johnson-as-prime-minister-3764620

    Clueless.

    Really? Then what do you make of how she says she is going to do it, then?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    Dunno, but No to Indyref II is bound to figure in it somewhere.
    Found some details lurking under an ad (for some reason my adblocker didn't work) - have added them below.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    Andy_JS said:

    Politics needs shaking up.
    Kemi would torpedo into oblivion Biden's 'you ain't black unless you vote Dem/left ' schtick.

    Yebbut the British conservatives just put Kemi in charge of the world's fifth largest economy Joe mate.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422

    The other 180-odd don't have to openly support anyone but even if they do I suspect they will coalesce around the front runners because... jobs innit?

    So I am not convinced Zahawi, Hunt, Javid, and Braverman are going to make it.

    What time do we expect to know btw?
    Nominations close at 6pm so I presume shortly thereafter.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,689

    Ugly? The Palace of Westminster is beautiful, like a homage to God. The most important building in the British isles.

    Some of you clearly can’t handle this heat. 🫠
    Neo-gothic monstrosity.

    Give me the clean lines or art deco any day.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,718
    Andy_JS said:

    The betting market has already decided it's down to 5 candidates: Sunak, Mordaunt, Truss, Tugendhat, Badenoch. Difficult to disagree.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234

    The betting market has decided it's down to 3 or 4 candidates: Sunak, Mordaunt, Truss and maybe Badenoch. Tugendhat is at 20:1, which translates as "very unlikely". Badenoch's 14:1 not much better.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,792
    Leon said:

    It’s remarkable how many “racist, classist, sexist” PB right wingers are eager to see a white working class woman, or a young black women, take the Tory leadership and become Prime Minister

    It’s almost as if the caricatures are BOLLOCKS

    I have kept saying to you that you shouldn't be so hard on yourself, Leon.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,738
    dixiedean said:

    4. Thanks to No.10 his negatives are out there.
    5. Has had a serious job at the top of government for a long time.
    6. And related. Your average punter knows who he is. (Although that may not be in his favour).
    7. A lot of people will fondly remember him for paying them to do nothing at home for a few months back in 2020.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,109
    Andy_JS said:

    Politics needs shaking up.
    That’s what led Italians to vote for Berlusconi then Lega Nord then the Cinque Stelle. Not much good it has done them.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,265
    glw said:

    I have no idea who the members of the Common Sense Group are but I deduce from their name alone that every last one of them is a fool.
    If they were just a little smarter, they'd at least have hit the open goal of calling themselves the Commons Sense Group
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939
    eek said:

    Sad to say - I won't be able to watch C4's debate because I will be watching Abba.
    The Winner Takes it All in both cases.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    edited July 2022
    Leon said:

    To put some figures on your insane hyperbole

    GDP per capita

    UK: $46,209

    Spain: $26,238

    Estonia: $21,421

    Latvia: $16,406

    (Source: Trading Economics)
    The numbers all look really weird at the moment due to Covid. For example, IMF and World Bank suggest NZ has overtaken UK but I am skeptical.

    I am most interested in PPP median income, ie what is the ordinary living standard of the average person.

    For the UK it is also highly instructive to look at UK with London & SE and UK without. Sobering.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Applicant said:

    This stuff should be trivial for any serious candidate to deal with. When the field is narrowed then they can get on to the difficult stuff.

    It's a bit like the first five questions on WWTBAM?
    I really want to hear Penny’s answer to the “Women” question. The other four main contenders are all okay on culture stuff.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,718
    Andy_JS said:

    Politics needs shaking up.
    That was the reason people voted for Johnson, and indeed Trump. These did not turn out to be good choices.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,073

    But it's rather telling that Mordaunt wasn't.
    Penny does not come out of praising Jo in a bad light at all.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,806
    Carnyx said:

    TBF, as we discussed the other day almost any of the chimps at Corstorphine Zoo would do better in Scotland than the PM. So merely improving things isn't much of an aim.

    Have the ScoTories come to any sort of collective viewpoint?

    Edit: missed a bit; "Borders MP John Lamont said he would vote for International Trade Minister Penny Mordaunt while West Aberdeenshire MP Andrew Bowie confirmed he would support former Chancellor Rishi Sunak.

    The remaining four, including Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross, have yet to endorse any of the candidates."
    Has Ruth Davidson come out for any of the candidates? She might have some sway
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,219

    It was globalised capitalism and free trade aka Thatcherism that did this, not "progressive types".
    But it's the absorption of the idea - to a ludicrous excess - by the progressive end of the spectrum that is fascinating.

    The productivity numbers make it quite clear. There isn't much of a gap.

    Further the productivity levels of a country are very closely related to the infrastructure - physical, social and legal - of that country. Healthcare, roads and sewers increase national productivity.

    From that you can actually build a business case that closes for a level of state spending on the above.

    Rather than "All the jobs will go to China, must crucify some billionaire to get enough money to kind of run the NHS".

    AKA Affordable Social Democracy.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,630
    Leon said:

    It’s remarkable how many “racist, classist, sexist” PB right wingers are eager to see a white working class woman, or a young black women, take the Tory leadership and become Prime Minister

    It’s almost as if the caricatures are BOLLOCKS

    I had this at the weekend from a labour supporter who seemed disgusted that the Tories might have as many a seven minority ethnic people as potential leader. They really do think they have a right to all minority votes.
This discussion has been closed.