Good morning. It’s going to be a (pleasantly, normally) hot one.
Like it or not the leadership contest is going to give voters weeks of blanket coverage of the candidates and with that will come increased recognition and increased credibility for whoever wins. The Tories are doing their regular Dr Who reincarnation trick, aided by the media, before our eyes.
5% poll lead for the conservatives in the week after whoever the lucky winner is gets installed.
How important will the 1922 elections be now? Does anyone know what the candidates are saying about how quickly they would like to see this contest?
The secretary announced yesterday the details will be announced tomorrow but the final 2 will be sent to the membership on the 21st July and the new PM in office by the 5th September
The goal I am setting myself is losing 10% of my bodyweight over 10 weeks. Which would take me safely out of obesity in to the 'slightly overweight' category and would be the lowest weight I have been in 5 years.
Plan
1. No alcohol at all for 10 weeks. This is going to be hard. I've got holidays and parties coming up. And long overdue meetings with old friends for 'beers'. But, my experience is that after about 3 weeks the actual cravings for alcohol go and you just switch to being sober. Alternatively, if you switch back to drinking, then the whole edifice quickly collapses.
2. I've got a diet which involves calorie counted food. A friend who was very good at losing weight did so by just eating pre bought ready meals just because even though they aren't the healthiest food, they were at least calorie counted.
3. Going to the gym 2-3 times per week. Involving 30 mins on an exercise bike and then some light weight training, possibly followed by a swim.
4. Getting around town by bike. Pedal bike.
I take the view that there is a lot of uncertainty about weight loss and think that everyone has their own path. However, in terms of the vague science of what motivates us to find and stick to a plan, the book below about how to overcome procrastination is quite insightful.
I did pretty much all of that (except the bike) in lockdown 1 and felt much the better for it. Unfortunately lockdown 2 had much more negative effects on my mood and behaviour. What you are undertaking is not easy but keeping it up once goals have been achieved is, in my own pathetic experience, much, much harder. Try to prepare for that challenge now.
The goal I am setting myself is losing 10% of my bodyweight over 10 weeks. Which would take me safely out of obesity in to the 'slightly overweight' category and would be the lowest weight I have been in 5 years.
Plan
1. No alcohol at all for 10 weeks. This is going to be hard. I've got holidays and parties coming up. And long overdue meetings with old friends for 'beers'. But, my experience is that after about 3 weeks the actual cravings for alcohol go and you just switch to being sober. Alternatively, if you switch back to drinking, then the whole edifice quickly collapses.
2. I've got a diet which involves calorie counted food. A friend who was very good at losing weight did so by just eating pre bought ready meals just because even though they aren't the healthiest food, they were at least calorie counted.
3. Going to the gym 2-3 times per week. Involving 30 mins on an exercise bike and then some light weight training, possibly followed by a swim.
4. Getting around town by bike. Pedal bike.
I take the view that there is a lot of uncertainty about weight loss and think that everyone has their own path. However, in terms of the vague science of what motivates us to find and stick to a plan, the book below about how to overcome procrastination is quite insightful.
I did pretty much all of that (except the bike) in lockdown 1 and felt much the better for it. Unfortunately lockdown 2 had much more negative effects on my mood and behaviour. What you are undertaking is not easy but keeping it up once goals have been achieved is, in my own pathetic experience, much, much harder. Try to prepare for that challenge now.
Thanks David; yes I agree. I had similar problems with mood in lockdown. With health, I've been going through similar cycles for the last 15 years. It goes well for a while (normally a stretch of a few months), and then all is lost, and then I eventually come to the realisation that I have to start over again, which usually coincides with deciding to stop drinking for a while.
The book I linked to above is quite good because it tries to set out a practical plan to tackle these 'cycles', by building up a structure that you need to follow. It then tries to look at what is going on when you try and avoid following the plan you have set yourself, Ie by 'procrastinating'. I've got it on my kindle and have read it about 5 times. It is just a self help book but it is rooted in serious academic study, and doesn't rely on the creation of pseudoscientific myths and stories.
I suspect that the unions are reasonably content with this behind the scenes. The headline rate of inflation has shot up this year and those that settled in January/February have lost out big time. We are still not at the peak and the government is getting more desperate by the day. Also public sector salary increases are normally backdated which will be a nice bonus for some.
My own union (the HCSA) had a pretty strong result amongst members. 75% of Consultants and 98% of juniors voted to push for RPI plus.
I was one of the 25% willing to go less, but the mooted 2% is not tolerable. That effectively means a real terms paycut equivalent to working unpaid for a month.
There is a hell of a storm brewing on this.
I have been saying that for a while. And as for those candidates who are promising tax cuts in the short term, they need to go into the deeply unserious and delusional recepticle. I don't know where the government is going to get the money from but it sure as hell isn't tax cuts.
True, but there's an argument for stimulus over the next 2 years during the current crisis and a path to balance later.
Just like how we cut VAT to 15% (temporarily) during the GFC but eventually increased to 20%.
I think Rishi's challenge is that he thinks standing on a "balance the books" platform with a bit of personal charisma on top is enough.
Don't get me wrong: I'm a fiscal conservative. I like good stewardship of the public finances. But, he put taxes up a lot to pay for Boris's spending splurges - so what does he think about that?
What does he think the right balance is between public services and taxation? How would he address our productivity problem? What about the affordability of housing? The burdens on young people and families? Investment in future technologies? Defence and security?
Right now, I think he'd just be a strictish CoE in No.10 for 2 years, and then probably lose. I need more.
You may need 'more', but is that available? The numbers of the economy are such that making the wrong decisions now will make matters worse than they would otherwise be. The Tories should try to limit the size of their inevitable loss at the nest election by doing the right things for the UK economy. If not you could end up with a Tory wipeout.
I'm not arguing for irresponsibility: I'm arguing for a clear economic and political strategy from Sunak that will address the many deep-seated problems we have.
Right now all I know is that he will balance the books and hopes the rest will follow.
Some contenders for PM are pushing for tax cuts, what is your view on this?
I'd be interested in the economic evidence for cutting corporation tax from 25 to 15% to help boost investment and growth. But I'd need to see the analysis first and the impact on public finances.
I detest the increase in NI and the social care levy and wouldn't mind if it was reversed, particularly since it's against the manifesto. Otherwise that's a Trojan horse that's going to get ever greater.
I'd increase the state pension age to 70, earlier, if it had to be paid for and give pensioners a below CPI uplift next year of 5% and not 10%.
The current corp tax rate is 19%, so 60% of the ‘cut’ is the cancellation of next year’s planned rise to 25%.
Merge employee NI into income tax, long overdue.
Yes, I think so.
NI has been creeping up and up for years, both employee and employer side, and is a surrogate income tax and one on jobs.
NI has been creeping up because it's a hidden tax. For years manifestos said no increase in Income Tax, IHT, VAT or Corporation Tax leaving NI as just about the only thing they could touch without consequences.
Trouble with that is that paying NI has been advertised for so long as payment in advance for your OAP that almost every OAP in the galaxy will regard [edit] merging it into IT as a direct breach of promise. The triple lock was bad enough. And who benefits from the grey vote?
(This comment omits the ones such as ye and me who know what the scheme really is, so there is no need to adduce that.)
Glad to be wrong on that. She is best of the candidates. Good speaker, well presented, some vision, and socially liberal.
If it wasn't for her Brexitism, I could vote for her.
Badenoch, Tugendhat and Mordaunt are my choices.
I am concerned about the Wokeness of Penny, but she could convince me.
Having a leader with at least half a foot in the modern world is surely an advantage for a political party?
For me, the issue is: who terrifies Labour the most?
I doubt Labour worries much beyond Mordaunt on that list.
Ditto the LibDems.
According to Opinium last night Sunak or Tugendhat should worry Labour most, both have a net 1% more saying they would make good PMs than bad.
Mordaunt has a net 1% saying she would make a bad PM. Javid has a net 2% saying he would be a bad PM. Zahawi has a net 11% saying he would make a bad PM and Truss has a net 14% saying she would make a bad PM. Shapps has a net 17% saying he would be a bad PM and Hunt has a net 18% saying he would make a bad PM.
Patel would be Labour's dream candidate it seems, a net 40% say Priti would make a bad PM
I have occupied a ringside seat for the involuntary departure of six previous prime ministers and for each of those there were expressions of empathy even from their fiercest opponents. Boris Johnson has proved the ignominious exception. His overdue defenestration has been as devoid of dignity and decency as his time at Number 10.
To the last, he had a wanton disregard for anyone’s interests but his own. The result was 40 hours of wild mayhem when he refused to leave even as the government imploded around him.
Character is destiny. As some of us always expected, he was ultimately undone by his amorality, his arrogance, his indiscipline and his duplicity. The great majority of the public had been saying “enough” for months. Even among those parts of the electorate that were once entertained by the Johnson shtick, the voters had realised that his jokes were at their expense.
He understood the power of oratory from the example of Churchill, but boosterish rhetoric is just verbal flatulence unless accompanied by dedicated endeavour in service of worthy causes. Countless colleagues and civil servants have given scathing testimony about his shambolic and capricious style of governing, with no coherent strategic direction, and decisions made and then reversed on a whim.
It will be an improvement if the Tory party can come up with a prime minister about whom it will not be the working assumption that he or she is lying every time that they part their lips. That is how low the bar has been left by Boris Johnson.
A perfect epitaph from Mr Rawnsley and a timely reminder why none of his Cabinet should be considered apprropriate choices to take over
He said "there will be a contest". He didn't say "I am resigning so there will be a contest"
This is a common mistake people make about rulebooks - they assume every single scenario under the sun must be covered within them and if it is not set out carved into stone something is permissable, but that really is not the case because it is impossible to cover everything. Common sense is actually a big part of administration.
There shall be a Leader of the Party (referred to in this Constitution as “the Leader”) drawn from those elected to the House of Commons, who shall be elected by the Party Members and Scottish Party Members in accordance with the provisions of Schedule 2
The Board (which 'have the power to do anything which in its opinion releates to the management and administration of the power') is responsible for 'the overseeing of the procedure for the election of the Leader in accordance with the provisions of Schedule 2'
Schedule 2 is categorical a leader 'resigning' from the leadership is not eligible. But let's play this out and say resigning is not necessarily a trigger.
Point 3 states
Upon the initiation of an election for the Leader, it shall be the duty of the 1922 Committee to present to the Party, as soon as reasonably practicable, a choice of candidates for election as Leader. The rules for deciding the procedure by which the 1922 Committee selects candidates for submission for election shall be determined by the Executive Committee of the 1922 Committee after consultation of the Board
So let's say Boris argfues the process has been 'initiated' without him resigning - the 1922 still gets to decide how the candidates are selected, and can say the current PM, in this case, is not eligible, based on his statements.
You can argue the toss about him trying to play fast and loose with the rules, but if he does that they have the tools to stymie him - this is only happening because as he acknowledged the will of the parliamentary party was that he not be leader. So he will not be allowed to be eligible, I am very confident of that.
Because it is not a question of what he can do - the will to remove him is there, so a way will be found. As noted, if he is saying he has not resigned then Brady and the committee can surely say well then no contest can happen until we settle if there is a vacancy or not.
Edit: chrisb makes the same point in about 1/10 of the space.
“… shall be elected by the Party Members and Scottish Party Members…”
Why the distinction?
Can people who live outwith Scotland *choose* to be classified as a “Scottish Party Member”? If so, one wonders how many members they actually have north of the border. 5,000?
I'd wondered that too. Seems odd when my understandings was it was just a branding issue, not actually a distinct sister party.
Seems to be a separate entity
Its Members shall comprise:
4.1 Individuals (referred to in this Constitution as “Party Members”); 4.2 Local operational units (referred to in this Constitution as “Associations”), whose members shall only comprise Party Members; 4.3 Recognised Organisations, whose members shall only comprise Party Members, (other than expressly provided by the Board) being other organisations recognised by the Board. 4.4 The Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party, and its members (referred to in this Constitution as “Scottish Party Members”) subject to the provisions of Schedule 8.
He said "there will be a contest". He didn't say "I am resigning so there will be a contest"
This is a common mistake people make about rulebooks - they assume every single scenario under the sun must be covered within them and if it is not set out carved into stone something is permissable, but that really is not the case because it is impossible to cover everything. Common sense is actually a big part of administration.
There shall be a Leader of the Party (referred to in this Constitution as “the Leader”) drawn from those elected to the House of Commons, who shall be elected by the Party Members and Scottish Party Members in accordance with the provisions of Schedule 2
The Board (which 'have the power to do anything which in its opinion releates to the management and administration of the power') is responsible for 'the overseeing of the procedure for the election of the Leader in accordance with the provisions of Schedule 2'
Schedule 2 is categorical a leader 'resigning' from the leadership is not eligible. But let's play this out and say resigning is not necessarily a trigger.
Point 3 states
Upon the initiation of an election for the Leader, it shall be the duty of the 1922 Committee to present to the Party, as soon as reasonably practicable, a choice of candidates for election as Leader. The rules for deciding the procedure by which the 1922 Committee selects candidates for submission for election shall be determined by the Executive Committee of the 1922 Committee after consultation of the Board
So let's say Boris argfues the process has been 'initiated' without him resigning - the 1922 still gets to decide how the candidates are selected, and can say the current PM, in this case, is not eligible, based on his statements.
You can argue the toss about him trying to play fast and loose with the rules, but if he does that they have the tools to stymie him - this is only happening because as he acknowledged the will of the parliamentary party was that he not be leader. So he will not be allowed to be eligible, I am very confident of that.
Because it is not a question of what he can do - the will to remove him is there, so a way will be found. As noted, if he is saying he has not resigned then Brady and the committee can surely say well then no contest can happen until we settle if there is a vacancy or not.
Edit: chrisb makes the same point in about 1/10 of the space.
“… shall be elected by the Party Members and Scottish Party Members…”
Why the distinction?
Can people who live outwith Scotland *choose* to be classified as a “Scottish Party Member”? If so, one wonders how many members they actually have north of the border. 5,000?
I'd wondered that too. Seems odd when my understandings was it was just a branding issue, not actually a distinct sister party.
Seems to be a separate entity
Its Members shall comprise:
4.1 Individuals (referred to in this Constitution as “Party Members”); 4.2 Local operational units (referred to in this Constitution as “Associations”), whose members shall only comprise Party Members; 4.3 Recognised Organisations, whose members shall only comprise Party Members, (other than expressly provided by the Board) being other organisations recognised by the Board. 4.4 The Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party, and its members (referred to in this Constitution as “Scottish Party Members”) subject to the provisions of Schedule 8.
The goal I am setting myself is losing 10% of my bodyweight over 10 weeks. Which would take me safely out of obesity in to the 'slightly overweight' category and would be the lowest weight I have been in 5 years.
Plan
1. No alcohol at all for 10 weeks. This is going to be hard. I've got holidays and parties coming up. And long overdue meetings with old friends for 'beers'. But, my experience is that after about 3 weeks the actual cravings for alcohol go and you just switch to being sober. Alternatively, if you switch back to drinking, then the whole edifice quickly collapses.
2. I've got a diet which involves calorie counted food. A friend who was very good at losing weight did so by just eating pre bought ready meals just because even though they aren't the healthiest food, they were at least calorie counted.
3. Going to the gym 2-3 times per week. Involving 30 mins on an exercise bike and then some light weight training, possibly followed by a swim.
4. Getting around town by bike. Pedal bike.
I take the view that there is a lot of uncertainty about weight loss and think that everyone has their own path. However, in terms of the vague science of what motivates us to find and stick to a plan, the book below about how to overcome procrastination is quite insightful.
The surest ways to lose weight that I have found are:
- as far as possible, cutting out sugar and things with sugar in them
- eat breakfast and one other meal, either a large late lunch with nothing in the evening, or an early large dinner (if there’s a difference!). It’s hard to eat extra at one meal than you are saving by not having another.
Good suggestions. Also get into a healthy sleep routine, early to bed and early to rise. Self discipline is much easier when you are sleeping well.
Glad to be wrong on that. She is best of the candidates. Good speaker, well presented, some vision, and socially liberal.
If it wasn't for her Brexitism, I could vote for her.
Badenoch, Tugendhat and Mordaunt are my choices.
I am concerned about the Wokeness of Penny, but she could convince me.
Having a leader with at least half a foot in the modern world is surely an advantage for a political party?
For me, the issue is: who terrifies Labour the most?
I doubt Labour worries much beyond Mordaunt on that list.
Ditto the LibDems.
According to Opinium last night Sunak or Tugendhat should worry Labour most, both have a net 1% more saying they would make good PMs than bad.
Mordaunt has a net 1% saying she would make a bad PM, Truss has a net 14% saying she would make a bad PM, Hunt has a net 18% saying he would make a bad PM
I remain to be convinced most people have a clue who Mordaunt or Tugendhat are. Heck I’m not sure many people could pick Liz Truss out of an identity parade.
Absolutely. Most of the population don't know who most MPs are outside of a few key ones and therefore these polls @HYUFD quote comparing potential leaders are meaningless as they don't compare like with like.
Regardless of policies Penny Mordant comes over as the most human so as a LD the one I fear most.
Interested stat that death rates are running at 1300 or 14% higher than norm per week and it is not known why. Hypotheses include undiagnosed stuff during COVID, people damaged by COVID, damage done to NHS by COVID. All seem to be tangentially related to COVID even though deaths are not people with COVID.
Yes, that has been surfacing over the last week or two. I think the favourite is the problems people were having seeing their GP/consultant for the best part of 2 years during which conditions metastized beyond the treatable.
No, I don't think that the case.
Peak excess deaths, even when not having covid written on the death certificate, have very much the same pattern as the covid pandemic waves, with a slight lag.
Missed and neglected non-covid disease certainly exists, but it wouldn't follow that pattern, but would occur fairly evenly across peaks and troughs.
I think most are related to undiagnosed covid, and in particular to the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular effects of infection.
Perhaps it is the case that we have come to the eventual (unacknowledged) conclusion that, after 2 years of trying to control the virus, we have to live with a higher death rate?
It is going to be around long term, but who knows how virulent.
I think there is a place for passive infection control measures such as ventilation and air filtration, avoiding overcrowding in enclosed spaces, appropriate hygiene and WFH when symptomatic etc. Certainly I would want to continue public health surveillance and vaccination of the vulnerable.
Just because we cannot eliminate it, doesn't mean doing nothing. No one is calling for further lockdowns etc, but non intrusive interventions seem reasonable.
I noticed in Waitrose in Cowbridge yesterday there was around 10% maskage, mostly over 60s. Up from zero a few weeks ago.
I would just observe that the interrogation the media are giving the candidates should interest labour as this is the spotlight they will come under in the next election which so far has not featured in any way
Glad to be wrong on that. She is best of the candidates. Good speaker, well presented, some vision, and socially liberal.
If it wasn't for her Brexitism, I could vote for her.
Badenoch, Tugendhat and Mordaunt are my choices.
I am concerned about the Wokeness of Penny, but she could convince me.
Having a leader with at least half a foot in the modern world is surely an advantage for a political party?
For me, the issue is: who terrifies Labour the most?
I doubt Labour worries much beyond Mordaunt on that list.
Ditto the LibDems.
According to Opinium last night Sunak or Tugendhat should worry Labour most, both have a net 1% more saying they would make good PMs than bad.
Mordaunt has a net 1% saying she would make a bad PM, Truss has a net 14% saying she would make a bad PM, Hunt has a net 18% saying he would make a bad PM
I remain to be convinced most people have a clue who Mordaunt or Tugendhat are. Heck I’m not sure many people could pick Liz Truss out of an identity parade.
Absolutely. Most of the population don't know who most MPs are outside of a few key ones and therefore these polls @HYUFD quote comparing potential leaders are meaningless as they don't compare like with like.
Regardless of policies Penny Mordant comes over as the most human so as a LD the one I fear most.
They aren't meaningless as of those who know who they are they show who has good opinions of then and who don't.
In terms of who would fare best v Labour that is significant
Pub quiz questions in the future will probably be framed something along the lines of: “who didn’t run for the Tory leadership in 2022?”
Again I think this is showing up the unhealthy internal status of the Party. The Conservative Party is the grand old party of government. Under the bonnet it should be constantly evaluating, discarding and promoting its future prospects. Deals should be being made, no-hopers should be weeded out on the promise of future promotion. At any one time it should really be ready to go with 3/4 decent candidates with the rest being persuaded to sit it out.
The fact we’ve got 10-12 people of varying levels of ability (I’ll be charitable) suggests that the internal machine has broken down. Everyone is in it for themselves. And that doesn’t bode well for the next election, or for the eventual fall from power.
Patels at 90.
So might be worth a nibble, knowing that will come down to say 20 if she runs?
Glad to be wrong on that. She is best of the candidates. Good speaker, well presented, some vision, and socially liberal.
If it wasn't for her Brexitism, I could vote for her.
Badenoch, Tugendhat and Mordaunt are my choices.
I am concerned about the Wokeness of Penny, but she could convince me.
Having a leader with at least half a foot in the modern world is surely an advantage for a political party?
For me, the issue is: who terrifies Labour the most?
I doubt Labour worries much beyond Mordaunt on that list.
Ditto the LibDems.
I agree. Provided she’s not the one into S&M or who has been abusing her authority by shagging her Spads, she is clearly the best electoral choice.
I am coming round to her too. I worry she has not had significant experience at the high levels of government (a short stint as defence secretary is all) but she seems grounded, measured, comes across well, speaks to modern society. Which is about as much as can be said for any of the candidates.
I still remain hesitant she will get it because of several factors:
1. Up against Rishi or Truss she will be branded with the “inexperienced” label and the other side will be desperate to paint her as not having enough experience.
2. She is not well known in the country so that could define her as too inexperienced (the media could run with this, in a similar way as they did with Leadsom in 2016, albeit she didn’t help herself) thereby pressuring the membership to go for Rishi/Truss.
3. She will be the one that Rishi/Truss supporters fear the most in a head to head. There could be tactical voting in the final MP vote.
Edit: and 4. I am starting to wonder if the Tory Party is going to be more focussed on indulging itself with tax cuts and red meat than on being electorally popular. Government fatigue may have set in.
I think point 4 is a certainty. They seem exhausted and fed up. The grassroots just want to be made happy even if it's a bad idea. It was actually a rare sign of being grown up thsy saw the government make decisions on NI etc they knew the party did not like, and had to rely on their big majority to do.
Interested stat that death rates are running at 1300 or 14% higher than norm per week and it is not known why. Hypotheses include undiagnosed stuff during COVID, people damaged by COVID, damage done to NHS by COVID. All seem to be tangentially related to COVID even though deaths are not people with COVID.
Yes, that has been surfacing over the last week or two. I think the favourite is the problems people were having seeing their GP/consultant for the best part of 2 years during which conditions metastized beyond the treatable.
No, I don't think that the case.
Peak excess deaths, even when not having covid written on the death certificate, have very much the same pattern as the covid pandemic waves, with a slight lag.
Missed and neglected non-covid disease certainly exists, but it wouldn't follow that pattern, but would occur fairly evenly across peaks and troughs.
I think most are related to undiagnosed covid, and in particular to the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular effects of infection.
Interesting. So perhaps the weakening brought on by long Covid (often undiagnosed)?
Yes, I think so. There is pretty good evidence of higher rates of fresh diabetes, cardiac disease and cerebrovascular disease in people hospitalised with covid, and to a lesser extent in the non-hospitalised, above what would be expected.
Whether this continues with Omicron compared to original covid, only time will tell.
Interested stat that death rates are running at 1300 or 14% higher than norm per week and it is not known why. Hypotheses include undiagnosed stuff during COVID, people damaged by COVID, damage done to NHS by COVID. All seem to be tangentially related to COVID even though deaths are not people with COVID.
Yes, that has been surfacing over the last week or two. I think the favourite is the problems people were having seeing their GP/consultant for the best part of 2 years during which conditions metastized beyond the treatable.
No, I don't think that the case.
Peak excess deaths, even when not having covid written on the death certificate, have very much the same pattern as the covid pandemic waves, with a slight lag.
Missed and neglected non-covid disease certainly exists, but it wouldn't follow that pattern, but would occur fairly evenly across peaks and troughs.
I think most are related to undiagnosed covid, and in particular to the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular effects of infection.
Interesting. So perhaps the weakening brought on by long Covid (often undiagnosed)?
Yes, I think so. There is pretty good evidence of higher rates of fresh diabetes, cardiac disease and cerebrovascular disease in people hospitalised with covid, and to a lesser extent in the non-hospitalised, above what would be expected.
Whether this continues with Omicron compared to original covid, only time will tell.
Can the 'excess' death data be broken down by age? It would be good to know which age groups are most affected by the increase in excess deaths.
Yes, this group of actuaries have done some interesting work on that aspect. While obviously mortality rates are lower in younger age groups, the percentage increase of excess deaths has been quite high in the middle aged. Certainly enough to give me pause for thought about my own retirement plans.
"What can age-specific excess deaths tell us? The direct impacts of COVID-19 on excess deaths were felt hardest in older age groups in absolute terms. However, all adult age groups from 50 years and above saw between 18-23% more deaths in the first year of the pandemic than would have been expected under normal conditions.
In the second year of the pandemic, we are seeing quite different patterns by age. Since the second wave, and after the administration of at least one dose of a vaccine to most adults, we have observed 12%, 10% and 5% more deaths in 50-64, 25-49 and 65-74 year olds respectively."
Glad to be wrong on that. She is best of the candidates. Good speaker, well presented, some vision, and socially liberal.
If it wasn't for her Brexitism, I could vote for her.
Badenoch, Tugendhat and Mordaunt are my choices.
I am concerned about the Wokeness of Penny, but she could convince me.
Having a leader with at least half a foot in the modern world is surely an advantage for a political party?
For me, the issue is: who terrifies Labour the most?
I doubt Labour worries much beyond Mordaunt on that list.
Ditto the LibDems.
According to Opinium last night Sunak or Tugendhat should worry Labour most, both have a net 1% more saying they would make good PMs than bad.
Mordaunt has a net 1% saying she would make a bad PM, Truss has a net 14% saying she would make a bad PM, Hunt has a net 18% saying he would make a bad PM
I remain to be convinced most people have a clue who Mordaunt or Tugendhat are. Heck I’m not sure many people could pick Liz Truss out of an identity parade.
Absolutely. Most of the population don't know who most MPs are outside of a few key ones and therefore these polls @HYUFD quote comparing potential leaders are meaningless as they don't compare like with like.
Regardless of policies Penny Mordant comes over as the most human so as a LD the one I fear most.
They aren't meaningless as of those who know who they are they show who has good opinions of then and who don't.
In terms of who would fare best v Labour that is significant
Very, very off topic
...and while you're on. Weald of Kent Grammar School Group.
Glad to be wrong on that. She is best of the candidates. Good speaker, well presented, some vision, and socially liberal.
If it wasn't for her Brexitism, I could vote for her.
Badenoch, Tugendhat and Mordaunt are my choices.
I am concerned about the Wokeness of Penny, but she could convince me.
Having a leader with at least half a foot in the modern world is surely an advantage for a political party?
For me, the issue is: who terrifies Labour the most?
I doubt Labour worries much beyond Mordaunt on that list.
Ditto the LibDems.
According to Opinium last night Sunak or Tugendhat should worry Labour most, both have a net 1% more saying they would make good PMs than bad.
Mordaunt has a net 1% saying she would make a bad PM. Javid has a net 2% saying he would be a bad PM. Zahawi has a net 11% saying he would make a bad PM and Truss has a net 14% saying she would make a bad PM. Shapps has a net 17% saying he would be a bad PM and Hunt has a net 18% saying he would make a bad PM.
Patel would be Labour's dream candidate it seems, a net 40% say Priti would make a bad PM
Glad to be wrong on that. She is best of the candidates. Good speaker, well presented, some vision, and socially liberal.
If it wasn't for her Brexitism, I could vote for her.
Badenoch, Tugendhat and Mordaunt are my choices.
I am concerned about the Wokeness of Penny, but she could convince me.
Having a leader with at least half a foot in the modern world is surely an advantage for a political party?
For me, the issue is: who terrifies Labour the most?
I doubt Labour worries much beyond Mordaunt on that list.
Ditto the LibDems.
According to Opinium last night Sunak or Tugendhat should worry Labour most, both have a net 1% more saying they would make good PMs than bad.
Mordaunt has a net 1% saying she would make a bad PM, Truss has a net 14% saying she would make a bad PM, Hunt has a net 18% saying he would make a bad PM
I remain to be convinced most people have a clue who Mordaunt or Tugendhat are. Heck I’m not sure many people could pick Liz Truss out of an identity parade.
Yes, in that survey about 60% had no opinion on either Maudaunt or Tugenhat, so that 1% positivity is thinly based.
Glad to be wrong on that. She is best of the candidates. Good speaker, well presented, some vision, and socially liberal.
If it wasn't for her Brexitism, I could vote for her.
Badenoch, Tugendhat and Mordaunt are my choices.
I am concerned about the Wokeness of Penny, but she could convince me.
Having a leader with at least half a foot in the modern world is surely an advantage for a political party?
For me, the issue is: who terrifies Labour the most?
I doubt Labour worries much beyond Mordaunt on that list.
Ditto the LibDems.
According to Opinium last night Sunak or Tugendhat should worry Labour most, both have a net 1% more saying they would make good PMs than bad.
Mordaunt has a net 1% saying she would make a bad PM, Truss has a net 14% saying she would make a bad PM, Hunt has a net 18% saying he would make a bad PM
I remain to be convinced most people have a clue who Mordaunt or Tugendhat are. Heck I’m not sure many people could pick Liz Truss out of an identity parade.
Absolutely. Most of the population don't know who most MPs are outside of a few key ones and therefore these polls @HYUFD quote comparing potential leaders are meaningless as they don't compare like with like.
Regardless of policies Penny Mordant comes over as the most human so as a LD the one I fear most.
They aren't meaningless as of those who know who they are they show who has good opinions of then and who don't.
In terms of who would fare best v Labour that is significant
It's a halfway position. It shows what those who know them think, but because so many have no clue who they are you cannot rule out that once they are more prominent the public overall will take a different view.
Until we get to the stage of asking candidates whether they regret voting leave we are still screwed
You can still say your reasons for voting Remain stand while respecting the Brexit vote
Of course you can. The nutters who still obsess on this minor change in our trading arrangements on either side are a drag on this country and are involved in displacement activity so that they don't have to address the more difficult stuff.
I have no problem at all with how Tudendhat voted. My problem is that he is almost completely unheard of and absolutely untested. I mentioned him to my better half last night and she had never heard of him. She reads a newspaper every day, watches a lot more news than most and is interested in politics and current affairs. When I told her that he was Chair of the Foreign Affairs select committee her response was, well, not a serious candidate then. For all his merits I think that this is right.
The one thing it bloody isn't is a minor change in our trading arrangements. Only someone who sold 100% of their product into the domestic market would even pretend to think that
I don't think much of the argument from spousal ignorance either. I didn't know what sex kemi badenoch was till 48 hours ago. The electorate here is not the general public, and whoever gets to be PM will be plenty well known by the time a GE comes around
Morning all. On nutrition and food, everyone is of course different. I have found, as noted below, that reducing my sugar intake really helped my weight. A really interesting book I read recently was called 'Why we Eat (too much)' by Andrew Jenkinson. Lots of it is him, from his vast experience, hypothesising the cause of weight gain; but I found his suggestions around everyone having a weight set-point which is controlled by a complex mix of hormones etc rather convincing. Well worth a read and you can find him on some podcasts, although the book is far clearer.
Interested stat that death rates are running at 1300 or 14% higher than norm per week and it is not known why. Hypotheses include undiagnosed stuff during COVID, people damaged by COVID, damage done to NHS by COVID. All seem to be tangentially related to COVID even though deaths are not people with COVID.
Yes, that has been surfacing over the last week or two. I think the favourite is the problems people were having seeing their GP/consultant for the best part of 2 years during which conditions metastized beyond the treatable.
No, I don't think that the case.
Peak excess deaths, even when not having covid written on the death certificate, have very much the same pattern as the covid pandemic waves, with a slight lag.
Missed and neglected non-covid disease certainly exists, but it wouldn't follow that pattern, but would occur fairly evenly across peaks and troughs.
I think most are related to undiagnosed covid, and in particular to the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular effects of infection.
Perhaps it is the case that we have come to the eventual (unacknowledged) conclusion that, after 2 years of trying to control the virus, we have to live with a higher death rate?
It is going to be around long term, but who knows how virulent.
I think there is a place for passive infection control measures such as ventilation and air filtration, avoiding overcrowding in enclosed spaces, appropriate hygiene and WFH when symptomatic etc. Certainly I would want to continue public health surveillance and vaccination of the vulnerable.
Just because we cannot eliminate it, doesn't mean doing nothing. No one is calling for further lockdowns etc, but non intrusive interventions seem reasonable.
I noticed in Waitrose in Cowbridge yesterday there was around 10% maskage, mostly over 60s. Up from zero a few weeks ago.
I was in a gun shop in East LA today (don't ask), and there were a significant number of people wearing masks (like 15-20%).
Glad to be wrong on that. She is best of the candidates. Good speaker, well presented, some vision, and socially liberal.
If it wasn't for her Brexitism, I could vote for her.
Badenoch, Tugendhat and Mordaunt are my choices.
I am concerned about the Wokeness of Penny, but she could convince me.
Having a leader with at least half a foot in the modern world is surely an advantage for a political party?
For me, the issue is: who terrifies Labour the most?
I doubt Labour worries much beyond Mordaunt on that list.
Ditto the LibDems.
According to Opinium last night Sunak or Tugendhat should worry Labour most, both have a net 1% more saying they would make good PMs than bad.
Mordaunt has a net 1% saying she would make a bad PM. Javid has a net 2% saying he would be a bad PM. Zahawi has a net 11% saying he would make a bad PM and Truss has a net 14% saying she would make a bad PM. Shapps has a net 17% saying he would be a bad PM and Hunt has a net 18% saying he would make a bad PM.
Patel would be Labour's dream candidate it seems, a net 40% say Priti would make a bad PM
Glad to be wrong on that. She is best of the candidates. Good speaker, well presented, some vision, and socially liberal.
If it wasn't for her Brexitism, I could vote for her.
Badenoch, Tugendhat and Mordaunt are my choices.
I am concerned about the Wokeness of Penny, but she could convince me.
Having a leader with at least half a foot in the modern world is surely an advantage for a political party?
For me, the issue is: who terrifies Labour the most?
I doubt Labour worries much beyond Mordaunt on that list.
Ditto the LibDems.
According to Opinium last night Sunak or Tugendhat should worry Labour most, both have a net 1% more saying they would make good PMs than bad.
Mordaunt has a net 1% saying she would make a bad PM, Truss has a net 14% saying she would make a bad PM, Hunt has a net 18% saying he would make a bad PM
I remain to be convinced most people have a clue who Mordaunt or Tugendhat are. Heck I’m not sure many people could pick Liz Truss out of an identity parade.
Absolutely. Most of the population don't know who most MPs are outside of a few key ones and therefore these polls @HYUFD quote comparing potential leaders are meaningless as they don't compare like with like.
Regardless of policies Penny Mordant comes over as the most human so as a LD the one I fear most.
They aren't meaningless as of those who know who they are they show who has good opinions of then and who don't.
In terms of who would fare best v Labour that is significant
Very, very off topic
...and while you're on. Weald of Kent Grammar School Group.
We can remove Grant from the runners and riders.....
You can anyway
It'll be tricky to support that policy when had it existed earlier the majority of leadership candidates wouldn't have had an opportunity of ever becoming citizens of the UK.
That is a deeply ordinary video. Having Boris in it was a mistake. Having platitudes and cliches at every turn when her first priority is to actually improve name awareness and distinctiveness is just daft. Really quite disappointed.
That is a deeply ordinary video. Having Boris in it was a mistake. Having platitudes and cliches at every turn when her first priority is to actually improve name awareness and distinctiveness is just daft. Really quite disappointed.
Well she was only Reading not Oxford like Rishi don't you know. What does one expect?
Interested stat that death rates are running at 1300 or 14% higher than norm per week and it is not known why. Hypotheses include undiagnosed stuff during COVID, people damaged by COVID, damage done to NHS by COVID. All seem to be tangentially related to COVID even though deaths are not people with COVID.
Yes, that has been surfacing over the last week or two. I think the favourite is the problems people were having seeing their GP/consultant for the best part of 2 years during which conditions metastized beyond the treatable.
No, I don't think that the case.
Peak excess deaths, even when not having covid written on the death certificate, have very much the same pattern as the covid pandemic waves, with a slight lag.
Missed and neglected non-covid disease certainly exists, but it wouldn't follow that pattern, but would occur fairly evenly across peaks and troughs.
I think most are related to undiagnosed covid, and in particular to the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular effects of infection.
Perhaps it is the case that we have come to the eventual (unacknowledged) conclusion that, after 2 years of trying to control the virus, we have to live with a higher death rate?
It is going to be around long term, but who knows how virulent.
I think there is a place for passive infection control measures such as ventilation and air filtration, avoiding overcrowding in enclosed spaces, appropriate hygiene and WFH when symptomatic etc. Certainly I would want to continue public health surveillance and vaccination of the vulnerable.
Just because we cannot eliminate it, doesn't mean doing nothing. No one is calling for further lockdowns etc, but non intrusive interventions seem reasonable.
I noticed in Waitrose in Cowbridge yesterday there was around 10% maskage, mostly over 60s. Up from zero a few weeks ago.
I was in a gun shop in East LA today (don't ask), and there were a significant number of people wearing masks (like 15-20%).
Yes Robert, but they weren't really buying things...
The goal I am setting myself is losing 10% of my bodyweight over 10 weeks. Which would take me safely out of obesity in to the 'slightly overweight' category and would be the lowest weight I have been in 5 years.
Plan
1. No alcohol at all for 10 weeks. This is going to be hard. I've got holidays and parties coming up. And long overdue meetings with old friends for 'beers'. But, my experience is that after about 3 weeks the actual cravings for alcohol go and you just switch to being sober. Alternatively, if you switch back to drinking, then the whole edifice quickly collapses.
2. I've got a diet which involves calorie counted food. A friend who was very good at losing weight did so by just eating pre bought ready meals just because even though they aren't the healthiest food, they were at least calorie counted.
3. Going to the gym 2-3 times per week. Involving 30 mins on an exercise bike and then some light weight training, possibly followed by a swim.
4. Getting around town by bike. Pedal bike.
I take the view that there is a lot of uncertainty about weight loss and think that everyone has their own path. However, in terms of the vague science of what motivates us to find and stick to a plan, the book below about how to overcome procrastination is quite insightful.
On point 2. Weight Watchers does a range which varies from the utterly bland, to surprisingly tasty. Don't just buy one and then bin it off as a disappointment, they are worth persisting with. And if you're worried about the health of it, you can have it with a big side of fresh salad. All the best.
Even "non-slimming" ready meals are OK in my experience. An Indian or Chinese ready meal from the supermarket will be one container, half rice, half curry or whatever. A takeaway will be a similar-sized container of each!
That is a deeply ordinary video. Having Boris in it was a mistake. Having platitudes and cliches at every turn when her first priority is to actually improve name awareness and distinctiveness is just daft. Really quite disappointed.
Well she was only Reading not Oxford like Rishi don't you know. What does one expect?
So she's not actually qualified for the post then? Hmmm...
Morning all. On nutrition and food, everyone is of course different. I have found, as noted below, that reducing my sugar intake really helped my weight. A really interesting book I read recently was called 'Why we Eat (too much)' by Andrew Jenkinson. Lots of it is him, from his vast experience, hypothesising the cause of weight gain; but I found his suggestions around everyone having a weight set-point which is controlled by a complex mix of hormones etc rather convincing. Well worth a read and you can find him on some podcasts, although the book is far clearer.
Yes, it sounds interesting.
I highly recommend Fearnley-Whittingstals book "Eat better Forever" too.
For a diet to work it has to be sustainable for the individual in the long term. His seven points cover it well, the recipies are interesting, but the text and ideas behind his thinking are sound.
Interested stat that death rates are running at 1300 or 14% higher than norm per week and it is not known why. Hypotheses include undiagnosed stuff during COVID, people damaged by COVID, damage done to NHS by COVID. All seem to be tangentially related to COVID even though deaths are not people with COVID.
Yes, that has been surfacing over the last week or two. I think the favourite is the problems people were having seeing their GP/consultant for the best part of 2 years during which conditions metastized beyond the treatable.
No, I don't think that the case.
Peak excess deaths, even when not having covid written on the death certificate, have very much the same pattern as the covid pandemic waves, with a slight lag.
Missed and neglected non-covid disease certainly exists, but it wouldn't follow that pattern, but would occur fairly evenly across peaks and troughs.
I think most are related to undiagnosed covid, and in particular to the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular effects of infection.
Perhaps it is the case that we have come to the eventual (unacknowledged) conclusion that, after 2 years of trying to control the virus, we have to live with a higher death rate?
It is going to be around long term, but who knows how virulent.
I think there is a place for passive infection control measures such as ventilation and air filtration, avoiding overcrowding in enclosed spaces, appropriate hygiene and WFH when symptomatic etc. Certainly I would want to continue public health surveillance and vaccination of the vulnerable.
Just because we cannot eliminate it, doesn't mean doing nothing. No one is calling for further lockdowns etc, but non intrusive interventions seem reasonable.
I noticed in Waitrose in Cowbridge yesterday there was around 10% maskage, mostly over 60s. Up from zero a few weeks ago.
I was in a gun shop in East LA today (don't ask), and there were a significant number of people wearing masks (like 15-20%).
Glad to be wrong on that. She is best of the candidates. Good speaker, well presented, some vision, and socially liberal.
If it wasn't for her Brexitism, I could vote for her.
Badenoch, Tugendhat and Mordaunt are my choices.
I am concerned about the Wokeness of Penny, but she could convince me.
Having a leader with at least half a foot in the modern world is surely an advantage for a political party?
For me, the issue is: who terrifies Labour the most?
I doubt Labour worries much beyond Mordaunt on that list.
Ditto the LibDems.
Agreed, Tughenhat as well possibly. I doubt either could win a ballot of the members though as so many of those that might support them left during Johnson's reign.
On the other hand several of the contenders would push the Tory's ratings lower than Johnson's.
Interested stat that death rates are running at 1300 or 14% higher than norm per week and it is not known why. Hypotheses include undiagnosed stuff during COVID, people damaged by COVID, damage done to NHS by COVID. All seem to be tangentially related to COVID even though deaths are not people with COVID.
Yes, that has been surfacing over the last week or two. I think the favourite is the problems people were having seeing their GP/consultant for the best part of 2 years during which conditions metastized beyond the treatable.
No, I don't think that the case.
Peak excess deaths, even when not having covid written on the death certificate, have very much the same pattern as the covid pandemic waves, with a slight lag.
Missed and neglected non-covid disease certainly exists, but it wouldn't follow that pattern, but would occur fairly evenly across peaks and troughs.
I think most are related to undiagnosed covid, and in particular to the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular effects of infection.
Perhaps it is the case that we have come to the eventual (unacknowledged) conclusion that, after 2 years of trying to control the virus, we have to live with a higher death rate?
It is going to be around long term, but who knows how virulent.
I think there is a place for passive infection control measures such as ventilation and air filtration, avoiding overcrowding in enclosed spaces, appropriate hygiene and WFH when symptomatic etc. Certainly I would want to continue public health surveillance and vaccination of the vulnerable.
Just because we cannot eliminate it, doesn't mean doing nothing. No one is calling for further lockdowns etc, but non intrusive interventions seem reasonable.
I noticed in Waitrose in Cowbridge yesterday there was around 10% maskage, mostly over 60s. Up from zero a few weeks ago.
I was in a gun shop in East LA today (don't ask), and there were a significant number of people wearing masks (like 15-20%).
That is a deeply ordinary video. Having Boris in it was a mistake. Having platitudes and cliches at every turn when her first priority is to actually improve name awareness and distinctiveness is just daft. Really quite disappointed.
An Indian or Chinese ready meal from the supermarket will be one container, half rice, half curry or whatever. A takeaway will be a similar-sized container of each!
Mmm, takeaway portion sizes irritate me, and are part of why I don't eat them -- I usually want something like half to two thirds the standard size. Fish and chip shop portion sizes are usually about 50% too big for my liking as well.
I put on a solid 10 pounds during Covid, and it is proving extremely hard to shift - taking me from normal to overweight - whereas for the decade before that I was highly disciplined, and stayed close to my ideal weight. No problem
I don’t think it’s my metabolism or diet that has changed, it’s my psychology. Covid was so bloody terrible, in so many ways, it has debuted a new voice in my mental choir: the voice that says Fuck it, life is short, this could be your last meal, enjoy. I suspect I’m not alone. Covid has changed many, mentally
Interested stat that death rates are running at 1300 or 14% higher than norm per week and it is not known why. Hypotheses include undiagnosed stuff during COVID, people damaged by COVID, damage done to NHS by COVID. All seem to be tangentially related to COVID even though deaths are not people with COVID.
Yes, that has been surfacing over the last week or two. I think the favourite is the problems people were having seeing their GP/consultant for the best part of 2 years during which conditions metastized beyond the treatable.
No, I don't think that the case.
Peak excess deaths, even when not having covid written on the death certificate, have very much the same pattern as the covid pandemic waves, with a slight lag.
Missed and neglected non-covid disease certainly exists, but it wouldn't follow that pattern, but would occur fairly evenly across peaks and troughs.
I think most are related to undiagnosed covid, and in particular to the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular effects of infection.
Perhaps it is the case that we have come to the eventual (unacknowledged) conclusion that, after 2 years of trying to control the virus, we have to live with a higher death rate?
It is going to be around long term, but who knows how virulent.
I think there is a place for passive infection control measures such as ventilation and air filtration, avoiding overcrowding in enclosed spaces, appropriate hygiene and WFH when symptomatic etc. Certainly I would want to continue public health surveillance and vaccination of the vulnerable.
Just because we cannot eliminate it, doesn't mean doing nothing. No one is calling for further lockdowns etc, but non intrusive interventions seem reasonable.
I noticed in Waitrose in Cowbridge yesterday there was around 10% maskage, mostly over 60s. Up from zero a few weeks ago.
I was in a gun shop in East LA today (don't ask), and there were a significant number of people wearing masks (like 15-20%).
Who would be best for the country? Hunt - to clear out the stable Who will the membership choose? Sunak Who would be best for the LibDems? Zahawi Who would be best for my book? Truss (on at 60/1 with William Hill) Who would I enjoy watching as PM? Mordaunt
That is a deeply ordinary video. Having Boris in it was a mistake. Having platitudes and cliches at every turn when her first priority is to actually improve name awareness and distinctiveness is just daft. Really quite disappointed.
The video was too corny by half. However the maritime theme could be very appealing particularly to a Tory selectorate. And the point about the ship not the captain rings true.
Her launch video is a pretty direct return to traditional Toryism, indeed she cosplays Maggie rather more convincingly than Truss, and without the nasty streak being obvious.
Who would be best for the country? Hunt - to clear out the stable Who will the membership choose? Sunak Who would be best for the LibDems? Zahawi Who would be best for my book? Truss (on at 60/1 with William Hill) Who would I enjoy watching as PM? Mordaunt
*Sounds like an arch way of asking your partner whether they have lubed up.
My top 3 now Tom, kemi, penny
I hated everything about that Mordaunt video. It was just awful. The VO (probably Gyles Brandreth) was portentious to the point of being sick making. If you were burying the Queen it might have been suitable but as it is it was old fashioned fuddy duddy pompous nonsense.
I was wondering why Philip Davies was backing Hunt.
Now we know: make his missus DPM.
He fought a dreadful campaign against Johnson in 2019 (I still voted for him) and now he's determined to do even worse.
I'm only a marginal Rishi fan....could be swayed to Penny. Must make an effort to watch interviews with the (serious) candidates and preferably through debates as well.
Interested stat that death rates are running at 1300 or 14% higher than norm per week and it is not known why. Hypotheses include undiagnosed stuff during COVID, people damaged by COVID, damage done to NHS by COVID. All seem to be tangentially related to COVID even though deaths are not people with COVID.
Yes, that has been surfacing over the last week or two. I think the favourite is the problems people were having seeing their GP/consultant for the best part of 2 years during which conditions metastized beyond the treatable.
No, I don't think that the case.
Peak excess deaths, even when not having covid written on the death certificate, have very much the same pattern as the covid pandemic waves, with a slight lag.
Missed and neglected non-covid disease certainly exists, but it wouldn't follow that pattern, but would occur fairly evenly across peaks and troughs.
I think most are related to undiagnosed covid, and in particular to the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular effects of infection.
Perhaps it is the case that we have come to the eventual (unacknowledged) conclusion that, after 2 years of trying to control the virus, we have to live with a higher death rate?
It is going to be around long term, but who knows how virulent.
I think there is a place for passive infection control measures such as ventilation and air filtration, avoiding overcrowding in enclosed spaces, appropriate hygiene and WFH when symptomatic etc. Certainly I would want to continue public health surveillance and vaccination of the vulnerable.
Just because we cannot eliminate it, doesn't mean doing nothing. No one is calling for further lockdowns etc, but non intrusive interventions seem reasonable.
I noticed in Waitrose in Cowbridge yesterday there was around 10% maskage, mostly over 60s. Up from zero a few weeks ago.
I was in a gun shop in East LA today (don't ask), and there were a significant number of people wearing masks (like 15-20%).
That is a deeply ordinary video. Having Boris in it was a mistake. Having platitudes and cliches at every turn when her first priority is to actually improve name awareness and distinctiveness is just daft. Really quite disappointed.
Good morning one and all! Lovely morning in North Essex; hope all is well with everyone.
The Cole family celebration of our diamond wedding took place yesterday and there was icing on our cake; Eldest Grandson and his wife told us that it all went according, and there was no reason why it shouldn't, we would be great grandparents early in the New Year! Mrs C is thrilled; I'm pretty chuffed too!
*Sounds like an arch way of asking your partner whether they have lubed up.
My top 3 now Tom, kemi, penny
I hated everything about that Mordaunt video. It was just awful. The VO (probably Gyles Brandreth was portentious to the point of being sick making. If you were burying the Queen it might have been suitable but as it is it was old fashioned fuddy duddy pompous nonsense.
Thats goodbye Shapps Mordaunt and Hunt....
Yes it was just the strapline I was applauding. Now seen the video and meh. But always remember the intended audience is not me or thee.
The goal I am setting myself is losing 10% of my bodyweight over 10 weeks. Which would take me safely out of obesity in to the 'slightly overweight' category and would be the lowest weight I have been in 5 years.
Plan
1. No alcohol at all for 10 weeks. This is going to be hard. I've got holidays and parties coming up. And long overdue meetings with old friends for 'beers'. But, my experience is that after about 3 weeks the actual cravings for alcohol go and you just switch to being sober. Alternatively, if you switch back to drinking, then the whole edifice quickly collapses.
2. I've got a diet which involves calorie counted food. A friend who was very good at losing weight did so by just eating pre bought ready meals just because even though they aren't the healthiest food, they were at least calorie counted.
3. Going to the gym 2-3 times per week. Involving 30 mins on an exercise bike and then some light weight training, possibly followed by a swim.
4. Getting around town by bike. Pedal bike.
I take the view that there is a lot of uncertainty about weight loss and think that everyone has their own path. However, in terms of the vague science of what motivates us to find and stick to a plan, the book below about how to overcome procrastination is quite insightful.
On point 2. Weight Watchers does a range which varies from the utterly bland, to surprisingly tasty. Don't just buy one and then bin it off as a disappointment, they are worth persisting with. And if you're worried about the health of it, you can have it with a big side of fresh salad. All the best.
Even "non-slimming" ready meals are OK in my experience. An Indian or Chinese ready meal from the supermarket will be one container, half rice, half curry or whatever. A takeaway will be a similar-sized container of each!
Yeah I think it is more just the point that they are calorie counted; its just a lazy way of achieving portion control more than anything else. I've never really gone in to specialist weight loss food because I have always found it synthetic and disappointing, perhaps unfairly.
Takeaways are terrible because they aren't calorie counted. It has often occured to me that many of the meals sold by takeaways and restaurants are basically 2000 calories in one go. These are even supposedly upmarket and 'hipster' places.
That is a deeply ordinary video. Having Boris in it was a mistake. Having platitudes and cliches at every turn when her first priority is to actually improve name awareness and distinctiveness is just daft. Really quite disappointed.
The video was too corny by half. However the maritime theme could be very appealing particularly to a Tory selectorate. And the point about the ship not the captain rings true.
I must admit I cringed. It is however aimed at both the membership and (I think) trying to show she can appeal to the red wall (though in that respect she could have tried to avoid having Mr Cholmondley-Warner narrating)
That is a deeply ordinary video. Having Boris in it was a mistake. Having platitudes and cliches at every turn when her first priority is to actually improve name awareness and distinctiveness is just daft. Really quite disappointed.
Well she was only Reading not Oxford like Rishi don't you know. What does one expect?
I actually think that was quite good. Now don't get me wrong I actually thought it very naff, but I don't have a vote so what I think doesn't matter, but it struck me that it might work well on those that do have a vote.
@Foxy Thanks for the recommendation of the book. Looking at its description it seems to align with what Jenkinson argues as a way forward at the end. What I like about Jenkinson's book is that the vast majority is exploring why people gain weight, the risks of dieting etc from his time as a bariatric surgeon. A lot is linked to the body thinking it is/is not in a period of starvation based on our eating habits and the food we eat and the way hormones communicate to the brain. It seemed intuitively convincing to me although more research is needed I am sure. But he is critical of sugar, processed food and beyond. For me I try (not always well) to adhere to a Mediterranean diet and think the stuff on blue zones is very interesting.
The electorate here is not the general public, and whoever gets to be PM will be plenty well known by the time a GE comes around
Yes -- as a member of the general public I would like MPs to vote based on what they know about the candidates, who they have worked alongside for years. Hopefully they know who has the clever ideas, who sounds good in meetings but never quite seems to get anything done, and who has a genuine interest in making peoples' lives better rather than merely climbing the greasy pole. They have several years to sell their eventual choice to the public, and they'll have an easier job doing so if they pick based on core character strengths.
*Sounds like an arch way of asking your partner whether they have lubed up.
My top 3 now Tom, kemi, penny
I hated everything about that Mordaunt video. It was just awful. The VO (probably Gyles Brandreth) was portentious to the point of being sick making. If you were burying the Queen it might have been suitable but as it is it was old fashioned fuddy duddy pompous nonsense.
The only saving grace was 'PM4PM' which was cute
Thats goodbye Shapps Mordaunt and Hunt....
Aye.
Dan Frydman @danfrydman · 14m Replying to @patrickkmaguire It’s a Great British triumph of stock video usage.
That is a deeply ordinary video. Having Boris in it was a mistake. Having platitudes and cliches at every turn when her first priority is to actually improve name awareness and distinctiveness is just daft. Really quite disappointed.
It’s three minutes long, and she doesn’t even appear until the last 20 seconds.
*Sounds like an arch way of asking your partner whether they have lubed up.
My top 3 now Tom, kemi, penny
I hated everything about that Mordaunt video. It was just awful. The VO (probably Gyles Brandreth) was portentious to the point of being sick making. If you were burying the Queen it might have been suitable but as it is it was old fashioned fuddy duddy pompous nonsense.
The only saving grace was 'PM4PM' which was cute
Thats goodbye Shapps Mordaunt and Hunt....
Aye.
Dan Frydman @danfrydman · 14m Replying to @patrickkmaguire It’s a Great British triumph of stock video usage.
*Sounds like an arch way of asking your partner whether they have lubed up.
My top 3 now Tom, kemi, penny
I hated everything about that Mordaunt video. It was just awful. The VO (probably Gyles Brandreth) was portentious to the point of being sick making. If you were burying the Queen it might have been suitable but as it is it was old fashioned fuddy duddy pompous nonsense.
The only saving grace was 'PM4PM' which was cute
Thats goodbye Shapps Mordaunt and Hunt....
Mordaunt has a very real prospect of being next PM but Shapps and Hunt are not going anywhere
Who would be best for the country? Hunt - to clear out the stable Who will the membership choose? Sunak Who would be best for the LibDems? Zahawi Who would be best for my book? Truss (on at 60/1 with William Hill) Who would I enjoy watching as PM? Mordaunt
The membership will choose Sunak?
That's what the collective wisdom of punters think. Sunak is favourite at 2/1 on BetFair. Mordaunt is coming up fast at 9/2. I'm on her at 6/1 with an early bet at 38/1. I think it is a two horse race.
Good morning one and all! Lovely morning in North Essex; hope all is well with everyone.
The Cole family celebration of our diamond wedding took place yesterday and there was icing on our cake; Eldest Grandson and his wife told us that it all went according, and there was no reason why it shouldn't, we would be great grandparents early in the New Year! Mrs C is thrilled; I'm pretty chuffed too!
Something really to live for!
Congratulations OKC! Not too many people these days get to meet their great grandchildren. Nor, indeed, celebrate a diamond wedding anniversary.
Who would be best for the country? Hunt - to clear out the stable Who will the membership choose? Sunak Who would be best for the LibDems? Zahawi Who would be best for my book? Truss (on at 60/1 with William Hill) Who would I enjoy watching as PM? Mordaunt
*Sounds like an arch way of asking your partner whether they have lubed up.
My top 3 now Tom, kemi, penny
I hated everything about that Mordaunt video. It was just awful. The VO (probably Gyles Brandreth) was portentious to the point of being sick making. If you were burying the Queen it might have been suitable but as it is it was old fashioned fuddy duddy pompous nonsense.
The only saving grace was 'PM4PM' which was cute
Thats goodbye Shapps Mordaunt and Hunt....
Aye.
Dan Frydman @danfrydman · 14m Replying to @patrickkmaguire It’s a Great British triumph of stock video usage.
Good morning one and all! Lovely morning in North Essex; hope all is well with everyone.
The Cole family celebration of our diamond wedding took place yesterday and there was icing on our cake; Eldest Grandson and his wife told us that it all went according, and there was no reason why it shouldn't, we would be great grandparents early in the New Year! Mrs C is thrilled; I'm pretty chuffed too!
@HYUFD I was listening to Peter Hennessy this morning about Boris. He also relating to a conversation with Gillian Shephard after Boris resigned who commented with relief that our constitution held up. There was also comment on fears by Conservatives that Boris might have gone to the Queen to ask for a dissolution and out her in an impossible position. Which actual have a senior constitutional expert and senior Tories who were terrified that Boris was breaking the British Constitution.
*Sounds like an arch way of asking your partner whether they have lubed up.
My top 3 now Tom, kemi, penny
I hated everything about that Mordaunt video. It was just awful. The VO (probably Gyles Brandreth) was portentious to the point of being sick making. If you were burying the Queen it might have been suitable but as it is it was old fashioned fuddy duddy pompous nonsense.
The only saving grace was 'PM4PM' which was cute
Thats goodbye Shapps Mordaunt and Hunt....
There we have it. Roger has spoken.
We can be 100% confident it's an excellent video for the contest.
Comments
Like it or not the leadership contest is going to give voters weeks of blanket coverage of the candidates and with that will come increased recognition and increased credibility for whoever wins. The Tories are doing their regular Dr Who reincarnation trick, aided by the media, before our eyes.
5% poll lead for the conservatives in the week after whoever the lucky winner is gets installed.
Thems the breaks.
Thanks David; yes I agree. I had similar problems with mood in lockdown. With health, I've been going through similar cycles for the last 15 years. It goes well for a while (normally a stretch of a few months), and then all is lost, and then I eventually come to the realisation that I have to start over again, which usually coincides with deciding to stop drinking for a while.
The book I linked to above is quite good because it tries to set out a practical plan to tackle these 'cycles', by building up a structure that you need to follow. It then tries to look at what is going on when you try and avoid following the plan you have set yourself, Ie by 'procrastinating'. I've got it on my kindle and have read it about 5 times. It is just a self help book but it is rooted in serious academic study, and doesn't rely on the creation of pseudoscientific myths and stories.
Just like how we cut VAT to 15% (temporarily) during the GFC but eventually increased to 20%.
(This comment omits the ones such as ye and me who know what the scheme really is, so there is no need to adduce that.)
Its Members shall comprise:
4.1 Individuals (referred to in this Constitution as “Party Members”);
4.2 Local operational units (referred to in this Constitution as “Associations”), whose members shall
only comprise Party Members;
4.3 Recognised Organisations, whose members shall only comprise Party Members, (other than
expressly provided by the Board) being other organisations recognised by the Board.
4.4 The Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party, and its members (referred to in this Constitution as
“Scottish Party Members”) subject to the provisions of Schedule 8.
https://public.conservatives.com/organisation-department/202101/Conservative Party Constitution as amended January 2021.pdf
I suspect there were legal issues as well as negotiation involved |(e.g. trust funds) that forced a visible joint.
Regardless of policies Penny Mordant comes over as the most human so as a LD the one I fear most.
In terms of who would fare best v Labour that is significant
So might be worth a nibble, knowing that will come down to say 20 if she runs?
https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1544604591475531776?t=ujOiyJV1Dcy38tGBSWF3DQ&s=19
"What can age-specific excess deaths tell us?
The direct impacts of COVID-19 on excess deaths were felt hardest in older age groups in absolute terms. However, all adult age groups from 50 years and above saw between 18-23% more deaths in the first year of the pandemic than would have been expected under normal conditions.
In the second year of the pandemic, we are seeing quite different patterns by age. Since the second wave, and after the administration of at least one dose of a vaccine to most adults, we have observed 12%, 10% and 5% more deaths in 50-64, 25-49 and 65-74 year olds respectively."
pro Rwanda policy
against abolishing BBC license
pro net zero by 2050
no indyref2 for 10 years
will not lockdown again
Esther McVey deputy PM
...and while you're on. Weald of Kent Grammar School Group.
HYUFD please explain.
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1545847535595577346?s=20&t=rPjG5Cr8D8916dZJy8MG7Q
So now we know the collective noun for a group of Tory leadership hopefuls. @SophyRidgeSky
I don't think much of the argument from spousal ignorance either. I didn't know what sex kemi badenoch was till 48 hours ago. The electorate here is not the general public, and whoever gets to be PM will be plenty well known by the time a GE comes around
Not sure about the S.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ffqemZ-YOi7AvAw8HbxmMd0vIbsOXLZ7KpAmNQPD2r8/htmlview?pru=AAABggKjCN0*5ZzpFE1csaUEUURQoLlw6w#gid=0
And shortening to 5.3 on BetFair.
If the Tories don't choose Hunt they deserve what's coming to them
Puts Ready for Rishi* in its place
*Sounds like an arch way of asking your partner whether they have lubed up.
My top 3 now Tom, kemi, penny
So what does she believe in and what are her policies.
Indeed Mordaunt is the one to watch
I expect the final three to be Sunak- Mordaunt - Truss
And final 2 Sunak v Mordaunt
Membership most likely Mordaunt
I have made my prediction and think it is not far off
How will the Government increase 5G coverage and stop masts being rejected. What do they plan to do on the SRN?
This is true levelling up.
https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1546052905207316480
https://twitter.com/pennymordaunt/status/1546049184373121024
An Indian or Chinese ready meal from the supermarket will be one container, half rice, half curry or whatever.
A takeaway will be a similar-sized container of each!
I highly recommend Fearnley-Whittingstals book "Eat better Forever" too.
For a diet to work it has to be sustainable for the individual in the long term. His seven points cover it well, the recipies are interesting, but the text and ideas behind his thinking are sound.
ETA It was not a self-description but Sophie Raworth's.
On the other hand several of the contenders would push the Tory's ratings lower than Johnson's.
I put on a solid 10 pounds during Covid, and it is proving extremely hard to shift - taking me from normal to overweight - whereas for the decade before that I was highly disciplined, and stayed close to my ideal weight. No problem
I don’t think it’s my metabolism or diet that has changed, it’s my psychology. Covid was so bloody terrible, in so many ways, it has debuted a new voice in my mental choir: the voice that says Fuck it, life is short, this could be your last meal, enjoy. I suspect I’m not alone. Covid has changed many, mentally
Who would be best for the country? Hunt - to clear out the stable
Who will the membership choose? Sunak
Who would be best for the LibDems? Zahawi
Who would be best for my book? Truss (on at 60/1 with William Hill)
Who would I enjoy watching as PM? Mordaunt
Greater: Britain After the Storm https://amzn.eu/d/eC9iQMd
Her launch video is a pretty direct return to traditional Toryism, indeed she cosplays Maggie rather more convincingly than Truss, and without the nasty streak being obvious.
The only saving grace was 'PM4PM' which was cute
Thats goodbye Shapps Mordaunt and Hunt....
Now we know: make his missus DPM.
He fought a dreadful campaign against Johnson in 2019 (I still voted for him) and now he's determined to do even worse.
I'm only a marginal Rishi fan....could be swayed to Penny. Must make an effort to watch interviews with the (serious) candidates and preferably through debates as well.
The Cole family celebration of our diamond wedding took place yesterday and there was icing on our cake; Eldest Grandson and his wife told us that it all went according, and there was no reason why it shouldn't, we would be great grandparents early in the New Year!
Mrs C is thrilled; I'm pretty chuffed too!
Something really to live for!
Takeaways are terrible because they aren't calorie counted. It has often occured to me that many of the meals sold by takeaways and restaurants are basically 2000 calories in one go. These are even supposedly upmarket and 'hipster' places.
Dan Frydman
@danfrydman
·
14m
Replying to
@patrickkmaguire
It’s a Great British triumph of stock video usage.
It would be interesting to hear your prediction if the members get:
Penny versus Liz ?
or Liz versus Rishi ?
Sunak is favourite at 2/1 on BetFair.
Mordaunt is coming up fast at 9/2. I'm on her at 6/1 with an early bet at 38/1.
I think it is a two horse race.
Bit odd there's no Penny piece to camera at all in it though, although there is a 2-3 second clip of Johnson.
As a traditionalist did this not worry you?
We can be 100% confident it's an excellent video for the contest.