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Boris Johnson learned nothing from Pinchergate – politicalbetting.com
Boris Johnson learned nothing from Pinchergate – politicalbetting.com
That's Zahawi more fucked than a stepmom on Pornhub. Clear lay on the betting marketsChancellor Nadhim Zahawi’s tax affairs under investigation by HMRCExclusive: Revelation comes as Mr Zahawi launches bid to succeed Boris Johnson as prime ministerhttps://t.co/6PpdNJnYmU
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2.8 Rishi Sunak
6.8 Penny Mordaunt
7 Liz Truss
8.6 Jeremy Hunt
13 Tom Tugendhat
21 Sajid Javid
24 Kemi Badenoch
24 Nadhim Zahawi
38 Dominic Raab
38 Suella Braverman
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/dirty-dossiers-on-s-amp-m-and-affairs-as-tory-rivals-turn-on-each-other-3jtd5dbsc (£££)
Vladimir Putin and his ex-gymnast lover Alina Kabaeva are said to be expecting a daughter, according to the General SVR Telegram channel - a web account said to be updated by Kremlin insiders
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/vladimir-putin-to-become-dad-27439613
Michael Gove - who was sacked as housing secretary on Wednesday - not only lost his job, but also his £25 million grace and favour pad in Westminster.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/michael-gove-left-homeless-boris-27440550
2.8 Rishi Sunak
6.2 Penny Mordaunt
7 Liz Truss
10.5 Tom Tugendhat
13.5 Jeremy Hunt
18 Nadhim Zahawi
19.5 Sajid Javid
20 Kemi Badenoch
27 Suella Braverman
75 Grant Shapps
100 Priti Patel
Comparing these (next leader) prices with those in the first post (for next PM) we can see discrepancies for Jeremy Hunt and Tom Tugendhat in particular.
Has Truss still not declared?
Zahawi would be rubbish. Hoping Badenoch's odds shorten.
Mordaunt and Truss should shorten when (if) they declare. I am not convinced Mordaunt will. I think she hangs on for the post GE leadership contest, when detoxifying the party is once again needed.
Badenoch and Braverman seem to be running mostly on culture war issues. That may get the members juices flowing, but neither seem experienced enough for the top job, and members likely to realise that.
The others look to be making up the numbers but won't get far.
It looks very much Truss vs Sunak in the members vote to me, with Truss winning.
Why the distinction?
Can people who live outwith Scotland *choose* to be classified as a “Scottish Party Member”? If so, one wonders how many members they actually have north of the border. 5,000?
The system was designed to work so that the majority of sensible MPs had enough votes to ensure that the candidate of the loony right wing came in an honourable third. However since the party started selecting candidates on the basis of their loony factor and then chucked out a batch of the most sensible MPs, this time that approach may struggle to work out….
Betting PostF1: not original, but backed (one stake split evenly) Sainz and Perez to win each way (third the odds top 2), at 12, with boost on Ladbrokes.
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2022/07/austria-pre-race-2022.html
It’s very risky, but Nemo me impune lacessit.
The British state is corrupt to its core. We are nearing the end-game.
Allegations are allegations. They are easy to make, and may or may not be true.
What is the relevant standard of proof to apply facing an accusation of misconduct?
Beyond reasonable doubt? On the balance of probabilities? Any credible allegation? Or the Caesar’s wife standard of ‘above suspicion’?
If we apply the Caesar's wife standard, there would be few politicians left in any party. Most of them have either done something dodgy, or done something that an opponent can portray as dodgy.
My view on Zahawi is that these are serious allegations, and they deserve a serious investigation, which HMRC will provide in due course. In the meantime, Zahawi remains innocent. So, Boris could legitimately appoint him.
Pincher is more serious, because these serious allegations were reported to Johnson ... who did nothing. Whereas Johnson should have ensured a serious investigation began.
For Pincher, it is not the allegations that are the significant thing, it is that Johnson did nothing.
I think that it goes to someone who has done one of the great offices of state. MPs and members know they are choosing a PM, not a leader in opposition.
Javid is a poor speaker, and didn't do well last time, and Zaharwi is too dodgy and only qualifies on a technicality. That leaves Hunt, Sunak and Truss. Hunt will get some kudos for openly dissing the Johnson regime throughout the last years, he could make the final two particularly on with the Stop Sunak/Truss MPs tactically voting.
Why should an accused, but not yet convicted, paedophile, not be appointed as Education Secretary?
Or a suspected terrorist run the Home Office?
There's innocent until proven guilty, and then there is taking the piss.
The guy should be nowhere near the Treasury.
I hardly ever bet, and have never betted on anything political, l read PB for the excellent topics and the comments, for which many thanks.
As a non-better I sometimes encounter a betting word or phrase which I do not understand and today that is "to lay", as in "to lay the favourite".
Is there a dictionary of betting terms that I could refer to?
Hope so.
Sadly, most of the candidates seem only interested in bribing the party membership electorate with tax cuts, with no explanation of how this will impact on spending or borrowing. And I don’t see corporation tax cuts favoured by some candidates going down well with the wider public during a cost of living crisis.
https://twitter.com/PennyMordaunt/status/1545908402475438080?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet
If you are accused of paedophilia, then safeguarding is paramount.
If it wasn't for her Brexitism, I could vote for her.
With Johnson, it wasn't that he did nothing, it was that he lied about having known, and - more significantly - made other ministers repeat that false statement on his behalf.
I am concerned about the Wokeness of Penny, but she could convince me.
https://nypost.com/article/sports-betting-terms-and-glossary/
UK:
https://betting.betfair.com/betting-terms-explained.html
Google is your friend.
If you want to cut taxes in a way that impacts Tory party members you need to cut fuel duty, vat or income tax.
Don't get me wrong: I'm a fiscal conservative. I like good stewardship of the public finances. But, he put taxes up a lot to pay for Boris's spending splurges - so what does he think about that?
What does he think the right balance is between public services and taxation? How would he address our productivity problem? What about the affordability of housing? The burdens on young people and families? Investment in future technologies? Defence and security?
Right now, I think he'd just be a strictish CoE in No.10 for 2 years, and then probably lose. I need more.
But, look at British public life.
There are plenty of allegations that are "well known" but never investigated. (E.g. Saville)
As regards allegations, there are just two rules.
1. All allegations should be investigated, no matter how frivolous.
2. Serious allegations deserve a serious investigation, in which the case for the defence and the case for the prosecution are both heard. If you just hear the latter, you always convict.
The next leader is going to join the Dire PM list - Blair, Brown, Cameron, May, Johnson, Sunak?, Starmer - then, hey presto, the first half-decent one since grey John Major!
Or reality.
Betfair exchange glossary of terms —> https://betting.betfair.com/how-to-use-betfair-exchange/beginner-guides/exchange-explainers-310120-6.html
The numbers of the economy are such that making the wrong decisions now will make matters worse than they would otherwise be.
The Tories should try to limit the size of their inevitable loss at the nest election by doing the right things for the UK economy. If not you could end up with a Tory wipeout.
Lay the baldie
Lay the favourite
Cherchez la femme.
Look for the dark horse or filly
On that basis, it's Mordaunt, but number five is don't bet real money, its going to be a lottery.
I found previously, about 10 years ago that in my case there is a sustainable maximum in relation to alcohol: I can have 2 and a half pints of beer per day... but once that threshold is crossed once, it all goes seriously downhill. In terms of weight loss... then I think it just a case of counting calories rigorously and keeping under a certain daily limit, and avoiding saturated fats. Also, doing light exercise and keeping active.
At the moment, I have the same physque as Boris Johnson or Donald Trump; I need to lose about 25 kilograms to be regarded as 'healthy'. Its going to be a bit of a long haul...
To be fair to Truss, she trundled around the globe doing trade deals, as required. She was still pretty much an outsider from the corridors of Boris's power. Rishi was Boris's next door neighbour and can still be tagged - unfairly or not - as continuity Boris.
Early headwinds for her campaign.
It seems from the information in the Independent, that there was an investigation by the National Crime Agency (NCA) in 2020. "The NCA inquiry did not lead to any action against Mr Zahawi."
HMRC then began an investigation into whether all taxes were paid. We await the result of their investigation.
It is not clear when HMRC started this investigation.
And without knowing more information, it is impossible to say how serious this is.
(Personally, I think the tax affairs of all individuals -- including politicians -- should be public)
Good luck, Mr DarkAge.
Right now all I know is that he will balance the books and hopes the rest will follow.
We are now getting more details of the planned beauty parade. Multiple hate factions briefing as much dirt as they have - and its a LOT of dirt - out to the media and the opposition. We have a few weeks of this, then the last two get to spend the country doing hustings where more shit gets thrown about.
Meanwhile, the clown circus with its "I hate the Tory party so lets appoint the most offensively awful ministers possible" cast list continues to offend public sensibilities.
Labour could have that 20 point lead by the end of this.
It can be quite a pleasure though, and for years I have held to a 2 nights of alcohol per week policy, not including holidays. Alcohol then becomes a treat rather than a casual habit.
The difficulty I find is that I do not have a sweet tooth, and most soft drinks are too sweet for me, as are fruit juices. I have developed a taste for kombucha, but it isn't for everyone.
In that field that should be enogh
Baker - not standing
Badenoch - 8
Baron ??? - 0
Berry - not standing
Braverman - 9
Buckland ??? - 0
Chisti ??? - 0
Hunt - 9
Javid - 4
Mordaunt - 15
Shapps - 1
Sunak - 26
Truss - 12
Tugendhat - 6
Wallace - not standing
Wiggin ??? - 0
Zahawi - 9
or in terms of numbers of supporters
Sunak - 26
Mordaunt - 15
Truss - 12
Zahawi - 9
Hunt - 9
Braverman - 9
Badenoch - 8
crazy egos - the rest of the field
We're down to 7; some might say 3....
(commenting for a friend)
There are other institutions, too, with lessons to learn. A media that indulged a liar, seeing his fraudulence as amusing and roguish rather than disqualifying. A wider political culture that places a very particular notion of charisma above all other qualities, a notion tightly related to class.
Meanwhile, reality is doing the heavy lifting of discrediting Brexit, in the form of lost growth, rising bills, increasing hassle and the absence of any concrete benefit not expressible through abstract nouns such as “freedom” or “sovereignty”.
The dots are all there. Voters are already beginning to join them, even as Starmer insists that the subject is essentially closed. The politicians might not want to say it, but this week is a milestone in the fate of Brexit. The prime author of Britain’s exit from the EU has fallen: the standing of his calamitous project is heading the same way.
Hoping for a 20 point lead sounds like wishful thinking. There'll be increased concentration on the candidates, and some of the publicity will be favourable because it will be force-fed to the press. The ferrets in a sack tendency will be toned down.
If they go ferrety, they deserve all they get.
Such positions include such meandering extreme right-wingers and dinosaurs like... Tony Blair.
The PM was confronted at the height of the #MeToo movement in 2017, when she told him she was still “shaken and upset”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-pushed-for-woman-to-get-city-hall-job-during-abuse-of-power-relationship-nzxsfjmq6 https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1545825125810970626/video/1
Looking forward to 300 Tory MPs voting tomorrow that this guy should still be PM for another 3 months...
1990 was the fall of a titan; yesterday was the death of a salesman.
What Conservative MPs and activists need to remember, as they prepare to choose their fourth prime minister in six years, is that this sorry position is where buying into such fantasies gets you. There is no way to deliver urgently needed reform without angering those parts of the electorate (often the very Tory parts) who are doing well out of the status quo. Whether or not the party is willing to hear this – and indeed, whether any of the leadership contenders have the courage to tell them – remains to be seen. If not, ultimately Boris Johnson will go down in history as a symptom of the Conservative party’s decline, not the cause.
He's friends with Jeffrey Archer and rates him.
People might buy into that but you have to set out your plan for tomorrow too.
As for favourable coverage, that depends on two factors:
(1) who the surviving candidates are. There is nothing favourable about Braverman.
(2) how many mountains of shit have already been thrown and how much more the eliminated want to hurl
Associating a politician with a liking for animals will do them no harm (see also Keir Starmer and donkey sanctuaries).
Dougie: It’s Wednesday, I feel a position change coming on.
Thanks, Penny for your thoughts.