Interested stat that death rates are running at 1300 or 14% higher than norm per week and it is not known why. Hypotheses include undiagnosed stuff during COVID, people damaged by COVID, damage done to NHS by COVID. All seem to be tangentially related to COVID even though deaths are not people with COVID.
Tom Tugendhat seems to be the only candidate making a pitch for Scottish Tory support. I suppose that brand is now so marginal to the Conservatives that the Unionist constituency can be safely ignored?
Can their and their leader’s consistent support be relied on for more than a couple of days?
Dougie: It’s Wednesday, I feel a position change coming on.
One can only imagine he's so used to play changing ends every 40 minutes ...
All green on next con leader, thanks to Kemi throwing her hat into the ring. I had her form some time ago as a long odds successor either in opposition or after a long and successful Johnson leadership (lol!) and her gaining some senior experience.
Can't see her winning this one to be PM with lack of senior experience. Are the Tories that crazy? They did pick Johnson... So laid most of her back.
Why does this not surprise me at all? I listed 4 or 5 stories about Zahawi yesterday which involved problems with his family business, the fact that that business picked up Covid contracts from the government with his help, the nephew of the person whose land was being explored for oil by another Zahawi business who was given a placement, some very unfortunate insolvency issues investigated by the authorities, this is a man who sails very close to the wind, whose sense of moral propriety would make Boris blush and who needs to be out of the Treasury and indeed the Cabinet soonest. His appointment as Chancellor was surely some act of revenge by Boris.
I've not been looking at what they have been saying too closely but I've not seen a lot about what the candidates would try to do about CPI which is by far the biggest issue facing this country.
I'm not sure there is much then can do practically. The Tories problem has been that they don't care. If the new leader is at least sympathetic to the massive problem that people are facing that would be a start.
May we'll go into the red by laying some of the loons again, though. Just got to try to work out how crazy the MPs are. Take it as read the members are mostly loony (although some sane PBers rejoining maybe modifies that view)
2.8 Rishi Sunak 6.8 Penny Mordaunt 7 Liz Truss 8.6 Jeremy Hunt 13 Tom Tugendhat 21 Sajid Javid 24 Kemi Badenoch 24 Nadhim Zahawi 38 Dominic Raab 38 Suella Braverman
Rishi still too short (though justified favourite now). Hunt way too short. Truss and Penny probably a little bit too long. Others about right (apart from Zahawi, needs to be below Braverman now).
I have occupied a ringside seat for the involuntary departure of six previous prime ministers and for each of those there were expressions of empathy even from their fiercest opponents. Boris Johnson has proved the ignominious exception. His overdue defenestration has been as devoid of dignity and decency as his time at Number 10.
To the last, he had a wanton disregard for anyone’s interests but his own. The result was 40 hours of wild mayhem when he refused to leave even as the government imploded around him.
Character is destiny. As some of us always expected, he was ultimately undone by his amorality, his arrogance, his indiscipline and his duplicity. The great majority of the public had been saying “enough” for months. Even among those parts of the electorate that were once entertained by the Johnson shtick, the voters had realised that his jokes were at their expense.
He understood the power of oratory from the example of Churchill, but boosterish rhetoric is just verbal flatulence unless accompanied by dedicated endeavour in service of worthy causes. Countless colleagues and civil servants have given scathing testimony about his shambolic and capricious style of governing, with no coherent strategic direction, and decisions made and then reversed on a whim.
It will be an improvement if the Tory party can come up with a prime minister about whom it will not be the working assumption that he or she is lying every time that they part their lips. That is how low the bar has been left by Boris Johnson.
Why does this not surprise me at all? I listed 4 or 5 stories about Zahawi yesterday which involved problems with his family business, the fact that that business picked up Covid contracts from the government with his help, the nephew of the person whose land was being explored for oil by another Zahawi business who was given a placement, some very unfortunate insolvency issues investigated by the authorities, this is a man who sails very close to the wind, whose sense of moral propriety would make Boris blush and who needs to be out of the Treasury and indeed the Cabinet soonest. His appointment as Chancellor was surely some act of revenge by Boris.
She clearly wants to get her case across, and I wouldn't regard her as on the fringes on the issue. Her opinions are pretty close to majority opinions on trans issues, including seeing sport as a legitimate exception.
I’ve got a hangover so didn’t absorb the substance. Just meant how it came across, a long series of defensive tweets that made her look like she’s on the back foot. Like she feels she needs to justify herself. Not a good look.
She at least looks like she has thought about the issue.
Looking forward to hustings where all candidates get asked "what is a woman?". (Although we were robbed of Boris's answer to that in 2019, which could have been, er, illuminating....)
Interested stat that death rates are running at 1300 or 14% higher than norm per week and it is not known why. Hypotheses include undiagnosed stuff during COVID, people damaged by COVID, damage done to NHS by COVID. All seem to be tangentially related to COVID even though deaths are not people with COVID.
Yes, that has been surfacing over the last week or two. I think the favourite is the problems people were having seeing their GP/consultant for the best part of 2 years during which conditions metastized beyond the treatable.
May we'll go into the red by laying some of the loons again, though. Just got to try to work out how crazy the MPs are. Take it as read the members are mostly loony (although some sane PBers rejoining maybe modifies that view)
I have occupied a ringside seat for the involuntary departure of six previous prime ministers and for each of those there were expressions of empathy even from their fiercest opponents. Boris Johnson has proved the ignominious exception. His overdue defenestration has been as devoid of dignity and decency as his time at Number 10.
To the last, he had a wanton disregard for anyone’s interests but his own. The result was 40 hours of wild mayhem when he refused to leave even as the government imploded around him.
Character is destiny. As some of us always expected, he was ultimately undone by his amorality, his arrogance, his indiscipline and his duplicity. The great majority of the public had been saying “enough” for months. Even among those parts of the electorate that were once entertained by the Johnson shtick, the voters had realised that his jokes were at their expense.
He understood the power of oratory from the example of Churchill, but boosterish rhetoric is just verbal flatulence unless accompanied by dedicated endeavour in service of worthy causes. Countless colleagues and civil servants have given scathing testimony about his shambolic and capricious style of governing, with no coherent strategic direction, and decisions made and then reversed on a whim.
It will be an improvement if the Tory party can come up with a prime minister about whom it will not be the working assumption that he or she is lying every time that they part their lips. That is how low the bar has been left by Boris Johnson.
He really needs to get off the fence and tell us what he really thinks.
It seems Rishi - Penny and Liz are the likely favourites
I would be delighted to see Penny win but if not Rishi as I believe his fiscal management at this time is important and offering unaffordable tax cuts is misguided and not where the public are, and finally Liz would be an interesting PM though I have my reservations
I think Rishi's challenge is that he thinks standing on a "balance the books" platform with a bit of personal charisma on top is enough.
Don't get me wrong: I'm a fiscal conservative. I like good stewardship of the public finances. But, he put taxes up a lot to pay for Boris's spending splurges - so what does he think about that?
What does he think the right balance is between public services and taxation? How would he address our productivity problem? What about the affordability of housing? The burdens on young people and families? Investment in future technologies? Defence and security?
Right now, I think he'd just be a strictish CoE in No.10 for 2 years, and then probably lose. I need more.
You may need 'more', but is that available? The numbers of the economy are such that making the wrong decisions now will make matters worse than they would otherwise be. The Tories should try to limit the size of their inevitable loss at the nest election by doing the right things for the UK economy. If not you could end up with a Tory wipeout.
I'm not arguing for irresponsibility: I'm arguing for a clear economic and political strategy from Sunak that will address the many deep-seated problems we have.
Right now all I know is that he will balance the books and hopes the rest will follow.
Some contenders for PM are pushing for tax cuts, what is your view on this?
I have occupied a ringside seat for the involuntary departure of six previous prime ministers and for each of those there were expressions of empathy even from their fiercest opponents. Boris Johnson has proved the ignominious exception. His overdue defenestration has been as devoid of dignity and decency as his time at Number 10.
To the last, he had a wanton disregard for anyone’s interests but his own. The result was 40 hours of wild mayhem when he refused to leave even as the government imploded around him.
Character is destiny. As some of us always expected, he was ultimately undone by his amorality, his arrogance, his indiscipline and his duplicity. The great majority of the public had been saying “enough” for months. Even among those parts of the electorate that were once entertained by the Johnson shtick, the voters had realised that his jokes were at their expense.
He understood the power of oratory from the example of Churchill, but boosterish rhetoric is just verbal flatulence unless accompanied by dedicated endeavour in service of worthy causes. Countless colleagues and civil servants have given scathing testimony about his shambolic and capricious style of governing, with no coherent strategic direction, and decisions made and then reversed on a whim.
It will be an improvement if the Tory party can come up with a prime minister about whom it will not be the working assumption that he or she is lying every time that they part their lips. That is how low the bar has been left by Boris Johnson.
He really needs to get off the fence and tell us what he really thinks.
It's a majestic piece of writing. The full article is well worth a read, his best in ages.
"In his armada of untruths, the flagship mendacity has been that a Johnson-led Brexit Britain would enjoy “a new golden age”. "
Interested stat that death rates are running at 1300 or 14% higher than norm per week and it is not known why. Hypotheses include undiagnosed stuff during COVID, people damaged by COVID, damage done to NHS by COVID. All seem to be tangentially related to COVID even though deaths are not people with COVID.
Yes, that has been surfacing over the last week or two. I think the favourite is the problems people were having seeing their GP/consultant for the best part of 2 years during which conditions metastized beyond the treatable.
It seems to be not unique to the UK, but seems worse here according to the experts.
I have occupied a ringside seat for the involuntary departure of six previous prime ministers and for each of those there were expressions of empathy even from their fiercest opponents. Boris Johnson has proved the ignominious exception. His overdue defenestration has been as devoid of dignity and decency as his time at Number 10.
To the last, he had a wanton disregard for anyone’s interests but his own. The result was 40 hours of wild mayhem when he refused to leave even as the government imploded around him.
Character is destiny. As some of us always expected, he was ultimately undone by his amorality, his arrogance, his indiscipline and his duplicity. The great majority of the public had been saying “enough” for months. Even among those parts of the electorate that were once entertained by the Johnson shtick, the voters had realised that his jokes were at their expense.
He understood the power of oratory from the example of Churchill, but boosterish rhetoric is just verbal flatulence unless accompanied by dedicated endeavour in service of worthy causes. Countless colleagues and civil servants have given scathing testimony about his shambolic and capricious style of governing, with no coherent strategic direction, and decisions made and then reversed on a whim.
It will be an improvement if the Tory party can come up with a prime minister about whom it will not be the working assumption that he or she is lying every time that they part their lips. That is how low the bar has been left by Boris Johnson.
A perfect epitaph from Mr Rawnsley and a timely reminder why none of his Cabinet should be considered apprropriate choices to take over
Interested stat that death rates are running at 1300 or 14% higher than norm per week and it is not known why. Hypotheses include undiagnosed stuff during COVID, people damaged by COVID, damage done to NHS by COVID. All seem to be tangentially related to COVID even though deaths are not people with COVID.
Yes, that has been surfacing over the last week or two. I think the favourite is the problems people were having seeing their GP/consultant for the best part of 2 years during which conditions metastized beyond the treatable.
No, I don't think that the case.
Peak excess deaths, even when not having covid written on the death certificate, have very much the same pattern as the covid pandemic waves, with a slight lag.
Missed and neglected non-covid disease certainly exists, but it wouldn't follow that pattern, but would occur fairly evenly across peaks and troughs.
I think most are related to undiagnosed covid, and in particular to the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular effects of infection.
I suspect that the unions are reasonably content with this behind the scenes. The headline rate of inflation has shot up this year and those that settled in January/February have lost out big time. We are still not at the peak and the government is getting more desperate by the day. Also public sector salary increases are normally backdated which will be a nice bonus for some.
5 top concerns among Tory members that candidates are focused on. Will you: 1. Cut tax? 2. Be aggressive on Brexit? 3. Increase defence spending? 4. Say trans-women are not women? And then - very oddly for a Tory contest - this one is a long way behind: 5. Win the next election? 6. https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/1546039192106442752
Interested stat that death rates are running at 1300 or 14% higher than norm per week and it is not known why. Hypotheses include undiagnosed stuff during COVID, people damaged by COVID, damage done to NHS by COVID. All seem to be tangentially related to COVID even though deaths are not people with COVID.
Yes, that has been surfacing over the last week or two. I think the favourite is the problems people were having seeing their GP/consultant for the best part of 2 years during which conditions metastized beyond the treatable.
No, I don't think that the case.
Peak excess deaths, even when not having covid written on the death certificate, have very much the same pattern as the covid pandemic waves, with a slight lag.
Missed and neglected non-covid disease certainly exists, but it wouldn't follow that pattern, but would occur fairly evenly across peaks and troughs.
I think most are related to undiagnosed covid, and in particular to the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular effects of infection.
Interesting. So perhaps the weakening brought on by long Covid (often undiagnosed)?
I think Rishi's challenge is that he thinks standing on a "balance the books" platform with a bit of personal charisma on top is enough.
Don't get me wrong: I'm a fiscal conservative. I like good stewardship of the public finances. But, he put taxes up a lot to pay for Boris's spending splurges - so what does he think about that?
What does he think the right balance is between public services and taxation? How would he address our productivity problem? What about the affordability of housing? The burdens on young people and families? Investment in future technologies? Defence and security?
Right now, I think he'd just be a strictish CoE in No.10 for 2 years, and then probably lose. I need more.
You may need 'more', but is that available? The numbers of the economy are such that making the wrong decisions now will make matters worse than they would otherwise be. The Tories should try to limit the size of their inevitable loss at the nest election by doing the right things for the UK economy. If not you could end up with a Tory wipeout.
I'm not arguing for irresponsibility: I'm arguing for a clear economic and political strategy from Sunak that will address the many deep-seated problems we have.
Right now all I know is that he will balance the books and hopes the rest will follow.
Some contenders for PM are pushing for tax cuts, what is your view on this?
I'd be interested in the economic evidence for cutting corporation tax from 25 to 15% to help boost investment and growth. But I'd need to see the analysis first and the impact on public finances.
I detest the increase in NI and the social care levy and wouldn't mind if it was reversed, particularly since it's against the manifesto. Otherwise that's a Trojan horse that's going to get ever greater.
I'd increase the state pension age to 70, earlier, if it had to be paid for and give pensioners a below CPI uplift next year of 5% and not 10%.
I suspect that the unions are reasonably content with this behind the scenes. The headline rate of inflation has shot up this year and those that settled in January/February have lost out big time. We are still not at the peak and the government is getting more desperate by the day. Also public sector salary increases are normally backdated which will be a nice bonus for some.
My own union (the HCSA) had a pretty strong result amongst members. 75% of Consultants and 98% of juniors voted to push for RPI plus.
I was one of the 25% willing to go less, but the mooted 2% is not tolerable. That effectively means a real terms paycut equivalent to working unpaid for a month.
I listened to Tom Tugenhat on Sophie Ridge this morning and he seems to play very much on his military role and is a fresh face but to be honest I felt he was to inexperienced in office to justify him as PM
I hope and expect he will get an important cabinet position
Interested stat that death rates are running at 1300 or 14% higher than norm per week and it is not known why. Hypotheses include undiagnosed stuff during COVID, people damaged by COVID, damage done to NHS by COVID. All seem to be tangentially related to COVID even though deaths are not people with COVID.
Yes, that has been surfacing over the last week or two. I think the favourite is the problems people were having seeing their GP/consultant for the best part of 2 years during which conditions metastized beyond the treatable.
No, I don't think that the case.
Peak excess deaths, even when not having covid written on the death certificate, have very much the same pattern as the covid pandemic waves, with a slight lag.
Missed and neglected non-covid disease certainly exists, but it wouldn't follow that pattern, but would occur fairly evenly across peaks and troughs.
I think most are related to undiagnosed covid, and in particular to the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular effects of infection.
I suspect that the unions are reasonably content with this behind the scenes. The headline rate of inflation has shot up this year and those that settled in January/February have lost out big time. We are still not at the peak and the government is getting more desperate by the day. Also public sector salary increases are normally backdated which will be a nice bonus for some.
My own union (the HCSA) had a pretty strong result amongst members. 75% of Consultants and 98% of juniors voted to push for RPI plus.
I was one of the 25% willing to go less, but the mooted 2% is not tolerable. That effectively means a real terms paycut equivalent to working unpaid for a month.
There is a hell of a storm brewing on this.
I have been saying that for a while. And as for those candidates who are promising tax cuts in the short term, they need to go into the deeply unserious and delusional recepticle. I don't know where the government is going to get the money from but it sure as hell isn't tax cuts.
Until we get to the stage of asking candidates whether they regret voting leave we are still screwed
You are not going to get any candidate change the conservative party pro brexit stance and following Starmer's policy declaration last week neither is labour
I think Rishi's challenge is that he thinks standing on a "balance the books" platform with a bit of personal charisma on top is enough.
Don't get me wrong: I'm a fiscal conservative. I like good stewardship of the public finances. But, he put taxes up a lot to pay for Boris's spending splurges - so what does he think about that?
What does he think the right balance is between public services and taxation? How would he address our productivity problem? What about the affordability of housing? The burdens on young people and families? Investment in future technologies? Defence and security?
Right now, I think he'd just be a strictish CoE in No.10 for 2 years, and then probably lose. I need more.
You may need 'more', but is that available? The numbers of the economy are such that making the wrong decisions now will make matters worse than they would otherwise be. The Tories should try to limit the size of their inevitable loss at the nest election by doing the right things for the UK economy. If not you could end up with a Tory wipeout.
I'm not arguing for irresponsibility: I'm arguing for a clear economic and political strategy from Sunak that will address the many deep-seated problems we have.
Right now all I know is that he will balance the books and hopes the rest will follow.
Some contenders for PM are pushing for tax cuts, what is your view on this?
I'd be interested in the economic evidence for cutting corporation tax from 25 to 15% to help boost investment and growth. But I'd need to see the analysis first and the impact on public finances.
I detest the increase in NI and the social care levy and wouldn't mind if it was reversed, particularly since it's against the manifesto. Otherwise that's a Trojan horse that's going to get ever greater.
I'd increase the state pension age to 70, earlier, if it had to be paid for and give pensioners a below CPI uplift next year of 5% and not 10%.
The current corp tax rate is 19%, so 60% of the ‘cut’ is the cancellation of next year’s planned rise to 25%.
I suspect that the unions are reasonably content with this behind the scenes. The headline rate of inflation has shot up this year and those that settled in January/February have lost out big time. We are still not at the peak and the government is getting more desperate by the day. Also public sector salary increases are normally backdated which will be a nice bonus for some.
This is true. However. There is a looming 6 week window in which teachers and teaching assistants will have a splendid opportunity to eye up the jobs market. The latter, in particular, will be surveying a significant pay jump filling supermarket shelves with 1% of the hassle. And getting paid out of term time too.
The goal I am setting myself is losing 10% of my bodyweight over 10 weeks. Which would take me safely out of obesity in to the 'slightly overweight' category and would be the lowest weight I have been in 5 years.
Plan
1. No alcohol at all for 10 weeks. This is going to be hard. I've got holidays and parties coming up. And long overdue meetings with old friends for 'beers'. But, my experience is that after about 3 weeks the actual cravings for alcohol go and you just switch to being sober. Alternatively, if you switch back to drinking, then the whole edifice quickly collapses.
2. I've got a diet which involves calorie counted food. A friend who was very good at losing weight did so by just eating pre bought ready meals just because even though they aren't the healthiest food, they were at least calorie counted.
3. Going to the gym 2-3 times per week. Involving 30 mins on an exercise bike and then some light weight training, possibly followed by a swim.
4. Getting around town by bike. Pedal bike.
I take the view that there is a lot of uncertainty about weight loss and think that everyone has their own path. However, in terms of the vague science of what motivates us to find and stick to a plan, the book below about how to overcome procrastination is quite insightful.
Interested stat that death rates are running at 1300 or 14% higher than norm per week and it is not known why. Hypotheses include undiagnosed stuff during COVID, people damaged by COVID, damage done to NHS by COVID. All seem to be tangentially related to COVID even though deaths are not people with COVID.
Yes, that has been surfacing over the last week or two. I think the favourite is the problems people were having seeing their GP/consultant for the best part of 2 years during which conditions metastized beyond the treatable.
No, I don't think that the case.
Peak excess deaths, even when not having covid written on the death certificate, have very much the same pattern as the covid pandemic waves, with a slight lag.
Missed and neglected non-covid disease certainly exists, but it wouldn't follow that pattern, but would occur fairly evenly across peaks and troughs.
I think most are related to undiagnosed covid, and in particular to the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular effects of infection.
Interesting. So perhaps the weakening brought on by long Covid (often undiagnosed)?
Yes, I think so. There is pretty good evidence of higher rates of fresh diabetes, cardiac disease and cerebrovascular disease in people hospitalised with covid, and to a lesser extent in the non-hospitalised, above what would be expected.
Whether this continues with Omicron compared to original covid, only time will tell.
The goal I am setting myself is losing 10% of my bodyweight over 10 weeks. Which would take me safely out of obesity in to the 'slightly overweight' category and would be the lowest weight I have been in 5 years.
Plan
1. No alcohol at all for 10 weeks. This is going to be hard. I've got holidays and parties coming up. And long overdue meetings with old friends for 'beers'. But, my experience is that after about 3 weeks the actual cravings for alcohol go and you just switch to being sober. Alternatively, if you switch back to drinking, then the whole edifice quickly collapses.
2. I've got a diet which involves calorie counted food. A friend who was very good at losing weight did so by just eating pre bought ready meals just because even though they aren't the healthiest food, they were at least calorie counted.
3. Going to the gym 2-3 times per week. Involving 30 mins on an exercise bike and then some light weight training, possibly followed by a swim.
4. Getting around town by bike. Pedal bike.
I take the view that there is a lot of uncertainty about weight loss and think that everyone has their own path. However, in terms of the vague science of what motivates us to find and stick to a plan, the book below about how to overcome procrastination is quite insightful.
The surest ways to lose weight that I have found are:
- as far as possible, cutting out sugar and things with sugar in them
- eat breakfast and one other meal, either a large late lunch with nothing in the evening, or an early large dinner (if there’s a difference!). It’s hard to eat extra at one meal than you are saving by not having another.
The goal I am setting myself is losing 10% of my bodyweight over 10 weeks. Which would take me safely out of obesity in to the 'slightly overweight' category and would be the lowest weight I have been in 5 years.
Plan
1. No alcohol at all for 10 weeks. This is going to be hard. I've got holidays and parties coming up. And long overdue meetings with old friends for 'beers'. But, my experience is that after about 3 weeks the actual cravings for alcohol go and you just switch to being sober. Alternatively, if you switch back to drinking, then the whole edifice quickly collapses.
2. I've got a diet which involves calorie counted food. A friend who was very good at losing weight did so by just eating pre bought ready meals just because even though they aren't the healthiest food, they were at least calorie counted.
3. Going to the gym 2-3 times per week. Involving 30 mins on an exercise bike and then some light weight training, possibly followed by a swim.
4. Getting around town by bike. Pedal bike.
I take the view that there is a lot of uncertainty about weight loss and think that everyone has their own path. However, in terms of the vague science of what motivates us to find and stick to a plan, the book below about how to overcome procrastination is quite insightful.
Good luck. I am attempting a more modest weight loss. So far 4 kg down. I can lose weight fairly easily as I eat and drink so much, but I do love eating and drinking!
Until we get to the stage of asking candidates whether they regret voting leave we are still screwed
You are not going to get any candidate change the conservative party pro brexit stance and following Starmer's policy declaration last week neither is labour
So of your three most accomplished performers and those not soiled by Johnsonianism, two have to be discounted because they voted Remain and the other because they are open-minded.
It's that kind of talk that gets you PM Liz Truss, who remember, before her Damascene, William Glenn-like conversion was a Remainer...and a Liberal Democrat!
Allegations are allegations. They are easy to make, and may or may not be true.
What is the relevant standard of proof to apply facing an accusation of misconduct?
Beyond reasonable doubt? On the balance of probabilities? Any credible allegation? Or the Caesar’s wife standard of ‘above suspicion’?
If we apply the Caesar's wife standard, there would be few politicians left in any party. Most of them have either done something dodgy, or done something that an opponent can portray as dodgy.
My view on Zahawi is that these are serious allegations, and they deserve a serious investigation, which HMRC will provide in due course. In the meantime, Zahawi remains innocent. So, Boris could legitimately appoint him.
Pincher is more serious, because these serious allegations were reported to Johnson ... who did nothing. Whereas Johnson should have ensured a serious investigation began.
For Pincher, it is not the allegations that are the significant thing, it is that Johnson did nothing.
Bit in bold works for me.
With Johnson, it wasn't that he did nothing, it was that he lied about having known, and - more significantly - made other ministers repeat that false statement on his behalf.
For me, knowing a serious allegation and doing nothing is enough. (The things you mention make it worse).
But, look at British public life.
There are plenty of allegations that are "well known" but never investigated. (E.g. Saville)
As regards allegations, there are just two rules.
1. All allegations should be investigated, no matter how frivolous.
2. Serious allegations deserve a serious investigation, in which the case for the defence and the case for the prosecution are both heard. If you just hear the latter, you always convict.
The goal I am setting myself is losing 10% of my bodyweight over 10 weeks. Which would take me safely out of obesity in to the 'slightly overweight' category and would be the lowest weight I have been in 5 years.
Plan
1. No alcohol at all for 10 weeks. This is going to be hard. I've got holidays and parties coming up. And long overdue meetings with old friends for 'beers'. But, my experience is that after about 3 weeks the actual cravings for alcohol go and you just switch to being sober. Alternatively, if you switch back to drinking, then the whole edifice quickly collapses.
2. I've got a diet which involves calorie counted food. A friend who was very good at losing weight did so by just eating pre bought ready meals just because even though they aren't the healthiest food, they were at least calorie counted.
3. Going to the gym 2-3 times per week. Involving 30 mins on an exercise bike and then some light weight training, possibly followed by a swim.
4. Getting around town by bike. Pedal bike.
I take the view that there is a lot of uncertainty about weight loss and think that everyone has their own path. However, in terms of the vague science of what motivates us to find and stick to a plan, the book below about how to overcome procrastination is quite insightful.
I did pretty much all of that (except the bike) in lockdown 1 and felt much the better for it. Unfortunately lockdown 2 had much more negative effects on my mood and behaviour. What you are undertaking is not easy but keeping it up once goals have been achieved is, in my own pathetic experience, much, much harder. Try to prepare for that challenge now.
The goal I am setting myself is losing 10% of my bodyweight over 10 weeks. Which would take me safely out of obesity in to the 'slightly overweight' category and would be the lowest weight I have been in 5 years.
Plan
1. No alcohol at all for 10 weeks. This is going to be hard. I've got holidays and parties coming up. And long overdue meetings with old friends for 'beers'. But, my experience is that after about 3 weeks the actual cravings for alcohol go and you just switch to being sober. Alternatively, if you switch back to drinking, then the whole edifice quickly collapses.
2. I've got a diet which involves calorie counted food. A friend who was very good at losing weight did so by just eating pre bought ready meals just because even though they aren't the healthiest food, they were at least calorie counted.
3. Going to the gym 2-3 times per week. Involving 30 mins on an exercise bike and then some light weight training, possibly followed by a swim.
4. Getting around town by bike. Pedal bike.
I take the view that there is a lot of uncertainty about weight loss and think that everyone has their own path. However, in terms of the vague science of what motivates us to find and stick to a plan, the book below about how to overcome procrastination is quite insightful.
The goal I am setting myself is losing 10% of my bodyweight over 10 weeks. Which would take me safely out of obesity in to the 'slightly overweight' category and would be the lowest weight I have been in 5 years.
Plan
1. No alcohol at all for 10 weeks. This is going to be hard. I've got holidays and parties coming up. And long overdue meetings with old friends for 'beers'. But, my experience is that after about 3 weeks the actual cravings for alcohol go and you just switch to being sober. Alternatively, if you switch back to drinking, then the whole edifice quickly collapses.
2. I've got a diet which involves calorie counted food. A friend who was very good at losing weight did so by just eating pre bought ready meals just because even though they aren't the healthiest food, they were at least calorie counted.
3. Going to the gym 2-3 times per week. Involving 30 mins on an exercise bike and then some light weight training, possibly followed by a swim.
4. Getting around town by bike. Pedal bike.
I take the view that there is a lot of uncertainty about weight loss and think that everyone has their own path. However, in terms of the vague science of what motivates us to find and stick to a plan, the book below about how to overcome procrastination is quite insightful.
On point 2. Weight Watchers does a range which varies from the utterly bland, to surprisingly tasty. Don't just buy one and then bin it off as a disappointment, they are worth persisting with. And if you're worried about the health of it, you can have it with a big side of fresh salad. All the best.
Interested stat that death rates are running at 1300 or 14% higher than norm per week and it is not known why. Hypotheses include undiagnosed stuff during COVID, people damaged by COVID, damage done to NHS by COVID. All seem to be tangentially related to COVID even though deaths are not people with COVID.
Yes, that has been surfacing over the last week or two. I think the favourite is the problems people were having seeing their GP/consultant for the best part of 2 years during which conditions metastized beyond the treatable.
No, I don't think that the case.
Peak excess deaths, even when not having covid written on the death certificate, have very much the same pattern as the covid pandemic waves, with a slight lag.
Missed and neglected non-covid disease certainly exists, but it wouldn't follow that pattern, but would occur fairly evenly across peaks and troughs.
I think most are related to undiagnosed covid, and in particular to the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular effects of infection.
Perhaps it is the case that we have come to the eventual (unacknowledged) conclusion that, after 2 years of trying to control the virus, we have to live with a higher death rate?
Until we get to the stage of asking candidates whether they regret voting leave we are still screwed
Someone actually said it!
FUEL DUTY!!!!
Every Single Thing we buy in the UK is delivered somewhere in the process by diesel. So the ludicrous cost is a significant driver of the inflation that is crippling individuals and the economy.
Yes, slashing duty/VAT on fuel will have a negative impact on tax revenues,. But what is the cost if we don't? And as the Liaison Committee pointed out on Boris's Day Of Shame, his government have made bold declarations about an end to fossil fuelled vehicles. With zero plan to replace the tax revenues.
Allegations are allegations. They are easy to make, and may or may not be true.
What is the relevant standard of proof to apply facing an accusation of misconduct?
Beyond reasonable doubt? On the balance of probabilities? Any credible allegation? Or the Caesar’s wife standard of ‘above suspicion’?
If we apply the Caesar's wife standard, there would be few politicians left in any party. Most of them have either done something dodgy, or done something that an opponent can portray as dodgy.
My view on Zahawi is that these are serious allegations, and they deserve a serious investigation, which HMRC will provide in due course. In the meantime, Zahawi remains innocent. So, Boris could legitimately appoint him.
Pincher is more serious, because these serious allegations were reported to Johnson ... who did nothing. Whereas Johnson should have ensured a serious investigation began.
For Pincher, it is not the allegations that are the significant thing, it is that Johnson did nothing.
Bit in bold works for me.
With Johnson, it wasn't that he did nothing, it was that he lied about having known, and - more significantly - made other ministers repeat that false statement on his behalf.
For me, knowing a serious allegation and doing nothing is enough. (The things you mention make it worse).
But, look at British public life.
There are plenty of allegations that are "well known" but never investigated. (E.g. Saville)
As regards allegations, there are just two rules.
1. All allegations should be investigated, no matter how frivolous.
2. Serious allegations deserve a serious investigation, in which the case for the defence and the case for the prosecution are both heard. If you just hear the latter, you always convict.
Glad to be wrong on that. She is best of the candidates. Good speaker, well presented, some vision, and socially liberal.
If it wasn't for her Brexitism, I could vote for her.
Badenoch, Tugendhat and Mordaunt are my choices.
I am concerned about the Wokeness of Penny, but she could convince me.
Having a leader with at least half a foot in the modern world is surely an advantage for a political party?
For me, the issue is: who terrifies Labour the most?
I doubt Labour worries much beyond Mordaunt on that list.
Ditto the LibDems.
I agree. Provided she’s not the one into S&M or who has been abusing her authority by shagging her Spads, she is clearly the best electoral choice.
I am coming round to her too. I worry she has not had significant experience at the high levels of government (a short stint as defence secretary is all) but she seems grounded, measured, comes across well, speaks to modern society. Which is about as much as can be said for any of the candidates.
I still remain hesitant she will get it because of several factors:
1. Up against Rishi or Truss she will be branded with the “inexperienced” label and the other side will be desperate to paint her as not having enough experience.
2. She is not well known in the country so that could define her as too inexperienced (the media could run with this, in a similar way as they did with Leadsom in 2016, albeit she didn’t help herself) thereby pressuring the membership to go for Rishi/Truss.
3. She will be the one that Rishi/Truss supporters fear the most in a head to head. There could be tactical voting in the final MP vote.
Edit: and 4. I am starting to wonder if the Tory Party is going to be more focussed on indulging itself with tax cuts and red meat than on being electorally popular. Government fatigue may have set in.
I've not been looking at what they have been saying too closely but I've not seen a lot about what the candidates would try to do about CPI which is by far the biggest issue facing this country.
I'm not sure there is much then can do practically. The Tories problem has been that they don't care. If the new leader is at least sympathetic to the massive problem that people are facing that would be a start.
I'd cautiously disagree with the principle there. Being sympathetic to a problem without understanding how it needs to be solved is a recipe for short-term palliative measures which prolong and exacerbate the problem. They do need to recognise the problem, though. Cf housing.
I think Rishi's challenge is that he thinks standing on a "balance the books" platform with a bit of personal charisma on top is enough.
Don't get me wrong: I'm a fiscal conservative. I like good stewardship of the public finances. But, he put taxes up a lot to pay for Boris's spending splurges - so what does he think about that?
What does he think the right balance is between public services and taxation? How would he address our productivity problem? What about the affordability of housing? The burdens on young people and families? Investment in future technologies? Defence and security?
Right now, I think he'd just be a strictish CoE in No.10 for 2 years, and then probably lose. I need more.
You may need 'more', but is that available? The numbers of the economy are such that making the wrong decisions now will make matters worse than they would otherwise be. The Tories should try to limit the size of their inevitable loss at the nest election by doing the right things for the UK economy. If not you could end up with a Tory wipeout.
I'm not arguing for irresponsibility: I'm arguing for a clear economic and political strategy from Sunak that will address the many deep-seated problems we have.
Right now all I know is that he will balance the books and hopes the rest will follow.
Some contenders for PM are pushing for tax cuts, what is your view on this?
I'd be interested in the economic evidence for cutting corporation tax from 25 to 15% to help boost investment and growth. But I'd need to see the analysis first and the impact on public finances.
I detest the increase in NI and the social care levy and wouldn't mind if it was reversed, particularly since it's against the manifesto. Otherwise that's a Trojan horse that's going to get ever greater.
I'd increase the state pension age to 70, earlier, if it had to be paid for and give pensioners a below CPI uplift next year of 5% and not 10%.
The current corp tax rate is 19%, so 60% of the ‘cut’ is the cancellation of next year’s planned rise to 25%.
Merge employee NI into income tax, long overdue.
The new 25% rate is only for companies reporting profits over £250 000, with the 19% staying for companies under £50 000, with a taper in-between. Clearly a job creation scheme for creative accountants, but not actually a bad Idea to have a lower rate for small companies.
My own private practice is via a Ltd company, so I should stay in the lower bracket.
He said "there will be a contest". He didn't say "I am resigning so there will be a contest"
This is a common mistake people make about rulebooks - they assume every single scenario under the sun must be covered within them and if it is not set out carved into stone something is permissable, but that really is not the case because it is impossible to cover everything. Common sense is actually a big part of administration.
There shall be a Leader of the Party (referred to in this Constitution as “the Leader”) drawn from those elected to the House of Commons, who shall be elected by the Party Members and Scottish Party Members in accordance with the provisions of Schedule 2
The Board (which 'have the power to do anything which in its opinion releates to the management and administration of the power') is responsible for 'the overseeing of the procedure for the election of the Leader in accordance with the provisions of Schedule 2'
Schedule 2 is categorical a leader 'resigning' from the leadership is not eligible. But let's play this out and say resigning is not necessarily a trigger.
Point 3 states
Upon the initiation of an election for the Leader, it shall be the duty of the 1922 Committee to present to the Party, as soon as reasonably practicable, a choice of candidates for election as Leader. The rules for deciding the procedure by which the 1922 Committee selects candidates for submission for election shall be determined by the Executive Committee of the 1922 Committee after consultation of the Board
So let's say Boris argfues the process has been 'initiated' without him resigning - the 1922 still gets to decide how the candidates are selected, and can say the current PM, in this case, is not eligible, based on his statements.
You can argue the toss about him trying to play fast and loose with the rules, but if he does that they have the tools to stymie him - this is only happening because as he acknowledged the will of the parliamentary party was that he not be leader. So he will not be allowed to be eligible, I am very confident of that.
Because it is not a question of what he can do - the will to remove him is there, so a way will be found. As noted, if he is saying he has not resigned then Brady and the committee can surely say well then no contest can happen until we settle if there is a vacancy or not.
Edit: chrisb makes the same point in about 1/10 of the space.
“… shall be elected by the Party Members and Scottish Party Members…”
Why the distinction?
Can people who live outwith Scotland *choose* to be classified as a “Scottish Party Member”? If so, one wonders how many members they actually have north of the border. 5,000?
I'd wondered that too. Seems odd when my understandings was it was just a branding issue, not actually a distinct sister party.
Allegations are allegations. They are easy to make, and may or may not be true.
What is the relevant standard of proof to apply facing an accusation of misconduct?
Beyond reasonable doubt? On the balance of probabilities? Any credible allegation? Or the Caesar’s wife standard of ‘above suspicion’?
If we apply the Caesar's wife standard, there would be few politicians left in any party. Most of them have either done something dodgy, or done something that an opponent can portray as dodgy.
My view on Zahawi is that these are serious allegations, and they deserve a serious investigation, which HMRC will provide in due course. In the meantime, Zahawi remains innocent. So, Boris could legitimately appoint him.
Pincher is more serious, because these serious allegations were reported to Johnson ... who did nothing. Whereas Johnson should have ensured a serious investigation began.
For Pincher, it is not the allegations that are the significant thing, it is that Johnson did nothing.
Bit in bold works for me.
With Johnson, it wasn't that he did nothing, it was that he lied about having known, and - more significantly - made other ministers repeat that false statement on his behalf.
For me, knowing a serious allegation and doing nothing is enough. (The things you mention make it worse).
But, look at British public life.
There are plenty of allegations that are "well known" but never investigated. (E.g. Saville)
As regards allegations, there are just two rules.
1. All allegations should be investigated, no matter how frivolous.
2. Serious allegations deserve a serious investigation, in which the case for the defence and the case for the prosecution are both heard. If you just hear the latter, you always convict.
Sunak is alleged to be an excellent skiier.
So was Osborne. God I wish there was someone of his ability and grip still around.
Glad to be wrong on that. She is best of the candidates. Good speaker, well presented, some vision, and socially liberal.
If it wasn't for her Brexitism, I could vote for her.
Badenoch, Tugendhat and Mordaunt are my choices.
I am concerned about the Wokeness of Penny, but she could convince me.
Having a leader with at least half a foot in the modern world is surely an advantage for a political party?
For me, the issue is: who terrifies Labour the most?
I doubt Labour worries much beyond Mordaunt on that list.
Ditto the LibDems.
As a Labour chap, I'd agree with that. Most of them are easily beatable. Sunak and Hunt could be slightly more tricky. Mordaunt, although a bit of an unknown quantity, could prove to be an appealing candidate, and is the biggest threat.
From my point of view, I'm rooting for Truss. Please.
Until we get to the stage of asking candidates whether they regret voting leave we are still screwed
You are not going to get any candidate change the conservative party pro brexit stance and following Starmer's policy declaration last week neither is labour
So of your three most accomplished performers and those not soiled by Johnsonianism, two have to be discounted because they voted Remain and the other because they are open-minded.
It's that kind of talk that gets you PM Liz Truss, who remember, before her Damascene, William Glenn-like conversion was a Remainer...and a Liberal Democrat!
Good try but nobody in the conservative party is going to campaign to rejoin the EU
Until we get to the stage of asking candidates whether they regret voting leave we are still screwed
Someone actually said it!
FUEL DUTY!!!!
Every Single Thing we buy in the UK is delivered somewhere in the process by diesel. So the ludicrous cost is a significant driver of the inflation that is crippling individuals and the economy.
Yes, slashing duty/VAT on fuel will have a negative impact on tax revenues,. But what is the cost if we don't? And as the Liaison Committee pointed out on Boris's Day Of Shame, his government have made bold declarations about an end to fossil fuelled vehicles. With zero plan to replace the tax revenues.
Yes, the cost of fuel feeds into the cost of everything else, it’s the single biggest effect on inflation at the moment - and as you say, in the wonderful future, it won’t raise anything anyway.
My view on Zahawi is that these are serious allegations, and they deserve a serious investigation, which HMRC will provide in due course. In the meantime, Zahawi remains innocent. So, Boris could legitimately appoint him.
He appointed him to oversee the department doing the investigation
Is there any evidence that this led to inappropriate behaviour/pressure?
Appearance of impropriety can be as damaging as actual impropriety. Just as apparent bias is a thing along with actual bias. It's why with potential conflicts of interest people cannot get involved in a decision as it might reasonably make people think inappropriate pressure existed. You have to be above board.
Zahawi may be innocent of wrongdoing. But when fighting scandals why invite another? What if he wins the contest and then the investigation shows wrongdoing after all?
Allegations are allegations. They are easy to make, and may or may not be true.
What is the relevant standard of proof to apply facing an accusation of misconduct?
Beyond reasonable doubt? On the balance of probabilities? Any credible allegation? Or the Caesar’s wife standard of ‘above suspicion’?
If we apply the Caesar's wife standard, there would be few politicians left in any party. Most of them have either done something dodgy, or done something that an opponent can portray as dodgy.
My view on Zahawi is that these are serious allegations, and they deserve a serious investigation, which HMRC will provide in due course. In the meantime, Zahawi remains innocent. So, Boris could legitimately appoint him.
Pincher is more serious, because these serious allegations were reported to Johnson ... who did nothing. Whereas Johnson should have ensured a serious investigation began.
For Pincher, it is not the allegations that are the significant thing, it is that Johnson did nothing.
Bit in bold works for me.
With Johnson, it wasn't that he did nothing, it was that he lied about having known, and - more significantly - made other ministers repeat that false statement on his behalf.
For me, knowing a serious allegation and doing nothing is enough. (The things you mention make it worse).
But, look at British public life.
There are plenty of allegations that are "well known" but never investigated. (E.g. Saville)
As regards allegations, there are just two rules.
1. All allegations should be investigated, no matter how frivolous.
2. Serious allegations deserve a serious investigation, in which the case for the defence and the case for the prosecution are both heard. If you just hear the latter, you always convict.
Sunak is alleged to be an excellent skiier.
So was Osborne. God I wish there was someone of his ability and grip still around.
An inexperienced and economic lightweight. His plans to revitalise the British economy through enterprise zones, corporation tax cuts and a shrinking state went nowhere.
Pub quiz questions in the future will probably be framed something along the lines of: “who didn’t run for the Tory leadership in 2022?”
Again I think this is showing up the unhealthy internal status of the Party. The Conservative Party is the grand old party of government. Under the bonnet it should be constantly evaluating, discarding and promoting its future prospects. Deals should be being made, no-hopers should be weeded out on the promise of future promotion. At any one time it should really be ready to go with 3/4 decent candidates with the rest being persuaded to sit it out.
The fact we’ve got 10-12 people of varying levels of ability (I’ll be charitable) suggests that the internal machine has broken down. Everyone is in it for themselves. And that doesn’t bode well for the next election, or for the eventual fall from power.
Allegations are allegations. They are easy to make, and may or may not be true.
What is the relevant standard of proof to apply facing an accusation of misconduct?
Beyond reasonable doubt? On the balance of probabilities? Any credible allegation? Or the Caesar’s wife standard of ‘above suspicion’?
If we apply the Caesar's wife standard, there would be few politicians left in any party. Most of them have either done something dodgy, or done something that an opponent can portray as dodgy.
My view on Zahawi is that these are serious allegations, and they deserve a serious investigation, which HMRC will provide in due course. In the meantime, Zahawi remains innocent. So, Boris could legitimately appoint him.
Pincher is more serious, because these serious allegations were reported to Johnson ... who did nothing. Whereas Johnson should have ensured a serious investigation began.
For Pincher, it is not the allegations that are the significant thing, it is that Johnson did nothing.
Bit in bold works for me.
With Johnson, it wasn't that he did nothing, it was that he lied about having known, and - more significantly - made other ministers repeat that false statement on his behalf.
For me, knowing a serious allegation and doing nothing is enough. (The things you mention make it worse).
But, look at British public life.
There are plenty of allegations that are "well known" but never investigated. (E.g. Saville)
As regards allegations, there are just two rules.
1. All allegations should be investigated, no matter how frivolous.
2. Serious allegations deserve a serious investigation, in which the case for the defence and the case for the prosecution are both heard. If you just hear the latter, you always convict.
Until we get to the stage of asking candidates whether they regret voting leave we are still screwed
Someone actually said it!
FUEL DUTY!!!!
Every Single Thing we buy in the UK is delivered somewhere in the process by diesel. So the ludicrous cost is a significant driver of the inflation that is crippling individuals and the economy.
Yes, slashing duty/VAT on fuel will have a negative impact on tax revenues,. But what is the cost if we don't? And as the Liaison Committee pointed out on Boris's Day Of Shame, his government have made bold declarations about an end to fossil fuelled vehicles. With zero plan to replace the tax revenues.
In the interests of currently supporting the "in-it together" fuel duty narrative, I thought that the Cabinet each rocking up to Downing Street in their 20mph (urban cycle) Range Rover Diesels showed the necessary patriotic spirit.
Boris Johnson is being eciscerated wherever you look and in the days and weeks ahead it's bound to get worse. For a man who wants to be loved this is going to be hard to take.
Just listened to Rishi's clip about not having working class friends. Funny and quite endearing though the reality is quite spooky. It makes me think he's open and honest which after Boris is going to seem the most important quality in the world.
Interested stat that death rates are running at 1300 or 14% higher than norm per week and it is not known why. Hypotheses include undiagnosed stuff during COVID, people damaged by COVID, damage done to NHS by COVID. All seem to be tangentially related to COVID even though deaths are not people with COVID.
Yes, that has been surfacing over the last week or two. I think the favourite is the problems people were having seeing their GP/consultant for the best part of 2 years during which conditions metastized beyond the treatable.
No, I don't think that the case.
Peak excess deaths, even when not having covid written on the death certificate, have very much the same pattern as the covid pandemic waves, with a slight lag.
Missed and neglected non-covid disease certainly exists, but it wouldn't follow that pattern, but would occur fairly evenly across peaks and troughs.
I think most are related to undiagnosed covid, and in particular to the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular effects of infection.
Perhaps it is the case that we have come to the eventual (unacknowledged) conclusion that, after 2 years of trying to control the virus, we have to live with a higher death rate?
It is going to be around long term, but who knows how virulent.
I think there is a place for passive infection control measures such as ventilation and air filtration, avoiding overcrowding in enclosed spaces, appropriate hygiene and WFH when symptomatic etc. Certainly I would want to continue public health surveillance and vaccination of the vulnerable.
Just because we cannot eliminate it, doesn't mean doing nothing. No one is calling for further lockdowns etc, but non intrusive interventions seem reasonable.
Interested stat that death rates are running at 1300 or 14% higher than norm per week and it is not known why. Hypotheses include undiagnosed stuff during COVID, people damaged by COVID, damage done to NHS by COVID. All seem to be tangentially related to COVID even though deaths are not people with COVID.
Yes, that has been surfacing over the last week or two. I think the favourite is the problems people were having seeing their GP/consultant for the best part of 2 years during which conditions metastized beyond the treatable.
No, I don't think that the case.
Peak excess deaths, even when not having covid written on the death certificate, have very much the same pattern as the covid pandemic waves, with a slight lag.
Missed and neglected non-covid disease certainly exists, but it wouldn't follow that pattern, but would occur fairly evenly across peaks and troughs.
I think most are related to undiagnosed covid, and in particular to the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular effects of infection.
Interesting. So perhaps the weakening brought on by long Covid (often undiagnosed)?
Yes, I think so. There is pretty good evidence of higher rates of fresh diabetes, cardiac disease and cerebrovascular disease in people hospitalised with covid, and to a lesser extent in the non-hospitalised, above what would be expected.
Whether this continues with Omicron compared to original covid, only time will tell.
Interested stat that death rates are running at 1300 or 14% higher than norm per week and it is not known why. Hypotheses include undiagnosed stuff during COVID, people damaged by COVID, damage done to NHS by COVID. All seem to be tangentially related to COVID even though deaths are not people with COVID.
Yes, that has been surfacing over the last week or two. I think the favourite is the problems people were having seeing their GP/consultant for the best part of 2 years during which conditions metastized beyond the treatable.
No, I don't think that the case.
Peak excess deaths, even when not having covid written on the death certificate, have very much the same pattern as the covid pandemic waves, with a slight lag.
Missed and neglected non-covid disease certainly exists, but it wouldn't follow that pattern, but would occur fairly evenly across peaks and troughs.
I think most are related to undiagnosed covid, and in particular to the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular effects of infection.
Interesting. So perhaps the weakening brought on by long Covid (often undiagnosed)?
Yes, I think so. There is pretty good evidence of higher rates of fresh diabetes, cardiac disease and cerebrovascular disease in people hospitalised with covid, and to a lesser extent in the non-hospitalised, above what would be expected.
Whether this continues with Omicron compared to original covid, only time will tell.
Can the 'excess' death data be broken down by age? It would be good to know which age groups are most affected by the increase in excess deaths.
The goal I am setting myself is losing 10% of my bodyweight over 10 weeks. Which would take me safely out of obesity in to the 'slightly overweight' category and would be the lowest weight I have been in 5 years.
Plan
1. No alcohol at all for 10 weeks. This is going to be hard. I've got holidays and parties coming up. And long overdue meetings with old friends for 'beers'. But, my experience is that after about 3 weeks the actual cravings for alcohol go and you just switch to being sober. Alternatively, if you switch back to drinking, then the whole edifice quickly collapses.
2. I've got a diet which involves calorie counted food. A friend who was very good at losing weight did so by just eating pre bought ready meals just because even though they aren't the healthiest food, they were at least calorie counted.
3. Going to the gym 2-3 times per week. Involving 30 mins on an exercise bike and then some light weight training, possibly followed by a swim.
4. Getting around town by bike. Pedal bike.
I take the view that there is a lot of uncertainty about weight loss and think that everyone has their own path. However, in terms of the vague science of what motivates us to find and stick to a plan, the book below about how to overcome procrastination is quite insightful.
He said "there will be a contest". He didn't say "I am resigning so there will be a contest"
This is a common mistake people make about rulebooks - they assume every single scenario under the sun must be covered within them and if it is not set out carved into stone something is permissable, but that really is not the case because it is impossible to cover everything. Common sense is actually a big part of administration.
There shall be a Leader of the Party (referred to in this Constitution as “the Leader”) drawn from those elected to the House of Commons, who shall be elected by the Party Members and Scottish Party Members in accordance with the provisions of Schedule 2
The Board (which 'have the power to do anything which in its opinion releates to the management and administration of the power') is responsible for 'the overseeing of the procedure for the election of the Leader in accordance with the provisions of Schedule 2'
Schedule 2 is categorical a leader 'resigning' from the leadership is not eligible. But let's play this out and say resigning is not necessarily a trigger.
Point 3 states
Upon the initiation of an election for the Leader, it shall be the duty of the 1922 Committee to present to the Party, as soon as reasonably practicable, a choice of candidates for election as Leader. The rules for deciding the procedure by which the 1922 Committee selects candidates for submission for election shall be determined by the Executive Committee of the 1922 Committee after consultation of the Board
So let's say Boris argfues the process has been 'initiated' without him resigning - the 1922 still gets to decide how the candidates are selected, and can say the current PM, in this case, is not eligible, based on his statements.
You can argue the toss about him trying to play fast and loose with the rules, but if he does that they have the tools to stymie him - this is only happening because as he acknowledged the will of the parliamentary party was that he not be leader. So he will not be allowed to be eligible, I am very confident of that.
Because it is not a question of what he can do - the will to remove him is there, so a way will be found. As noted, if he is saying he has not resigned then Brady and the committee can surely say well then no contest can happen until we settle if there is a vacancy or not.
Edit: chrisb makes the same point in about 1/10 of the space.
“… shall be elected by the Party Members and Scottish Party Members…”
Why the distinction?
Can people who live outwith Scotland *choose* to be classified as a “Scottish Party Member”? If so, one wonders how many members they actually have north of the border. 5,000?
I'd wondered that too. Seems odd when my understandings was it was just a branding issue, not actually a distinct sister party.
Under UK electdoral law such branding is illegal - except when the word 'Scottish' and 'Scotland' are involved. A Labour fiddle from Mr Blair's time. (And presumably Wales too.)
I think Rishi's challenge is that he thinks standing on a "balance the books" platform with a bit of personal charisma on top is enough.
Don't get me wrong: I'm a fiscal conservative. I like good stewardship of the public finances. But, he put taxes up a lot to pay for Boris's spending splurges - so what does he think about that?
What does he think the right balance is between public services and taxation? How would he address our productivity problem? What about the affordability of housing? The burdens on young people and families? Investment in future technologies? Defence and security?
Right now, I think he'd just be a strictish CoE in No.10 for 2 years, and then probably lose. I need more.
You may need 'more', but is that available? The numbers of the economy are such that making the wrong decisions now will make matters worse than they would otherwise be. The Tories should try to limit the size of their inevitable loss at the nest election by doing the right things for the UK economy. If not you could end up with a Tory wipeout.
I'm not arguing for irresponsibility: I'm arguing for a clear economic and political strategy from Sunak that will address the many deep-seated problems we have.
Right now all I know is that he will balance the books and hopes the rest will follow.
Some contenders for PM are pushing for tax cuts, what is your view on this?
I'd be interested in the economic evidence for cutting corporation tax from 25 to 15% to help boost investment and growth. But I'd need to see the analysis first and the impact on public finances.
I detest the increase in NI and the social care levy and wouldn't mind if it was reversed, particularly since it's against the manifesto. Otherwise that's a Trojan horse that's going to get ever greater.
I'd increase the state pension age to 70, earlier, if it had to be paid for and give pensioners a below CPI uplift next year of 5% and not 10%.
The current corp tax rate is 19%, so 60% of the ‘cut’ is the cancellation of next year’s planned rise to 25%.
Merge employee NI into income tax, long overdue.
The new 25% rate is only for companies reporting profits over £250 000, with the 19% staying for companies under £50 000, with a taper in-between. Clearly a job creation scheme for creative accountants, but not actually a bad Idea to have a lower rate for small companies.
My own private practice is via a Ltd company, so I should stay in the lower bracket.
Merging Employee NI can't be done unless you apply Employee NI to pensioner's income.. Which is a perfectly valid idea but would go down like a lead balloon. The other thing to remember is that NI is paid every week / month per employer while Income tax is global across all income throughout the year.
As for Fuel Duty - you put a taper on it based on oil prices so that the duty is £0 when the price is over £x a barrel. Then it becomes a question of what pump price would be acceptable at the moment - do we need £1.50 a litre or would £1.75 work....
I've not been looking at what they have been saying too closely but I've not seen a lot about what the candidates would try to do about CPI which is by far the biggest issue facing this country.
I'm sure the final two will be asked. But unfortunately a leadership contest is not a good time to develop policy - they'll be competing hard. Expect reversal of the elderly to pay licence fee or similar grey vote bribes too.
Glad to be wrong on that. She is best of the candidates. Good speaker, well presented, some vision, and socially liberal.
If it wasn't for her Brexitism, I could vote for her.
Badenoch, Tugendhat and Mordaunt are my choices.
I am concerned about the Wokeness of Penny, but she could convince me.
Having a leader with at least half a foot in the modern world is surely an advantage for a political party?
For me, the issue is: who terrifies Labour the most?
I doubt Labour worries much beyond Mordaunt on that list.
Ditto the LibDems.
As a Labour chap, I'd agree with that. Most of them are easily beatable. Sunak and Hunt could be slightly more tricky. Mordaunt, although a bit of an unknown quantity, could prove to be an appealing candidate, and is the biggest threat.
From my point of view, I'm rooting for Truss. Please.
Mordaunt and Truss imo will be there or thereabouts.
Henry Hill (ConHome): Among those who actually make the machinery of Conservative politics work, he had nobody left. The Daily Mail may try to invoke the spirit of 1990 – with a recent headline reading “What the hell have they done?” – but Johnson is no Thatcher.
1990 was the fall of a titan; yesterday was the death of a salesman.
What Conservative MPs and activists need to remember, as they prepare to choose their fourth prime minister in six years, is that this sorry position is where buying into such fantasies gets you. There is no way to deliver urgently needed reform without angering those parts of the electorate (often the very Tory parts) who are doing well out of the status quo. Whether or not the party is willing to hear this – and indeed, whether any of the leadership contenders have the courage to tell them – remains to be seen. If not, ultimately Boris Johnson will go down in history as a symptom of the Conservative party’s decline, not the cause.
Of course they're not willing to hear that. Its 12 years into government with dark times upon us, they wont win either Tory members or the public by telling hard truths.
Another fantasy is what the selectorate and the electorate want.
My view on Zahawi is that these are serious allegations, and they deserve a serious investigation, which HMRC will provide in due course. In the meantime, Zahawi remains innocent. So, Boris could legitimately appoint him.
He appointed him to oversee the department doing the investigation
Is there any evidence that this led to inappropriate behaviour/pressure?
Appearance of impropriety can be as damaging as actual impropriety. Just as apparent bias is a thing along with actual bias. It's why with potential conflicts of interest people cannot get involved in a decision as it might reasonably make people think inappropriate pressure existed. You have to be above board.
Zahawi may be innocent of wrongdoing. But when fighting scandals why invite another? What if he wins the contest and then the investigation shows wrongdoing after all?
Absoluteluy basic principle. Evasion of it is a major red warning signal.
Until we get to the stage of asking candidates whether they regret voting leave we are still screwed
You can still say your reasons for voting Remain stand while respecting the Brexit vote
Of course you can. The nutters who still obsess on this minor change in our trading arrangements on either side are a drag on this country and are involved in displacement activity so that they don't have to address the more difficult stuff.
I have no problem at all with how Tudendhat voted. My problem is that he is almost completely unheard of and absolutely untested. I mentioned him to my better half last night and she had never heard of him. She reads a newspaper every day, watches a lot more news than most and is interested in politics and current affairs. When I told her that he was Chair of the Foreign Affairs select committee her response was, well, not a serious candidate then. For all his merits I think that this is right.
Glad to be wrong on that. She is best of the candidates. Good speaker, well presented, some vision, and socially liberal.
If it wasn't for her Brexitism, I could vote for her.
Badenoch, Tugendhat and Mordaunt are my choices.
I am concerned about the Wokeness of Penny, but she could convince me.
Having a leader with at least half a foot in the modern world is surely an advantage for a political party?
For me, the issue is: who terrifies Labour the most?
I doubt Labour worries much beyond Mordaunt on that list.
Ditto the LibDems.
According to Opinium last night Sunak or Tugendhat should worry Labour most, both have a net 1% more saying they would make good PMs than bad.
Mordaunt has a net 1% saying she would make a bad PM. Javid has a net 2% saying he would be a bad PM. Zahawi has a net 11% saying he would make a bad PM and Truss has a net 14% saying she would make a bad PM. Shapps has a net 17% saying he would be a bad PM and Hunt has a net 18% saying he would make a bad PM.
Patel would be Labour's dream candidate it seems, a net 40% say Priti would make a bad PM
I think Rishi's challenge is that he thinks standing on a "balance the books" platform with a bit of personal charisma on top is enough.
Don't get me wrong: I'm a fiscal conservative. I like good stewardship of the public finances. But, he put taxes up a lot to pay for Boris's spending splurges - so what does he think about that?
What does he think the right balance is between public services and taxation? How would he address our productivity problem? What about the affordability of housing? The burdens on young people and families? Investment in future technologies? Defence and security?
Right now, I think he'd just be a strictish CoE in No.10 for 2 years, and then probably lose. I need more.
You may need 'more', but is that available? The numbers of the economy are such that making the wrong decisions now will make matters worse than they would otherwise be. The Tories should try to limit the size of their inevitable loss at the nest election by doing the right things for the UK economy. If not you could end up with a Tory wipeout.
I'm not arguing for irresponsibility: I'm arguing for a clear economic and political strategy from Sunak that will address the many deep-seated problems we have.
Right now all I know is that he will balance the books and hopes the rest will follow.
Some contenders for PM are pushing for tax cuts, what is your view on this?
I'd be interested in the economic evidence for cutting corporation tax from 25 to 15% to help boost investment and growth. But I'd need to see the analysis first and the impact on public finances.
I detest the increase in NI and the social care levy and wouldn't mind if it was reversed, particularly since it's against the manifesto. Otherwise that's a Trojan horse that's going to get ever greater.
I'd increase the state pension age to 70, earlier, if it had to be paid for and give pensioners a below CPI uplift next year of 5% and not 10%.
The current corp tax rate is 19%, so 60% of the ‘cut’ is the cancellation of next year’s planned rise to 25%.
Merge employee NI into income tax, long overdue.
Yes, I think so.
NI has been creeping up and up for years, both employee and employer side, and is a surrogate income tax and one on jobs.
Allegations are allegations. They are easy to make, and may or may not be true.
What is the relevant standard of proof to apply facing an accusation of misconduct?
Beyond reasonable doubt? On the balance of probabilities? Any credible allegation? Or the Caesar’s wife standard of ‘above suspicion’?
If we apply the Caesar's wife standard, there would be few politicians left in any party. Most of them have either done something dodgy, or done something that an opponent can portray as dodgy.
My view on Zahawi is that these are serious allegations, and they deserve a serious investigation, which HMRC will provide in due course. In the meantime, Zahawi remains innocent. So, Boris could legitimately appoint him.
Pincher is more serious, because these serious allegations were reported to Johnson ... who did nothing. Whereas Johnson should have ensured a serious investigation began.
For Pincher, it is not the allegations that are the significant thing, it is that Johnson did nothing.
Bit in bold works for me.
With Johnson, it wasn't that he did nothing, it was that he lied about having known, and - more significantly - made other ministers repeat that false statement on his behalf.
For me, knowing a serious allegation and doing nothing is enough. (The things you mention make it worse).
But, look at British public life.
There are plenty of allegations that are "well known" but never investigated. (E.g. Saville)
As regards allegations, there are just two rules.
1. All allegations should be investigated, no matter how frivolous.
2. Serious allegations deserve a serious investigation, in which the case for the defence and the case for the prosecution are both heard. If you just hear the latter, you always convict.
Sunak is alleged to be an excellent skiier.
Well he is the Davos candidate.
Who’s the Davros candidate? Zahawi I’d say unless Patel chucks her bunnet in the ring.
Glad to be wrong on that. She is best of the candidates. Good speaker, well presented, some vision, and socially liberal.
If it wasn't for her Brexitism, I could vote for her.
Badenoch, Tugendhat and Mordaunt are my choices.
I am concerned about the Wokeness of Penny, but she could convince me.
Having a leader with at least half a foot in the modern world is surely an advantage for a political party?
For me, the issue is: who terrifies Labour the most?
I doubt Labour worries much beyond Mordaunt on that list.
Ditto the LibDems.
I agree. Provided she’s not the one into S&M or who has been abusing her authority by shagging her Spads, she is clearly the best electoral choice.
Edit: and 4. I am starting to wonder if the Tory Party is going to be more focussed on indulging itself with tax cuts and red meat than on being electorally popular. Government fatigue may have set in.
Yes, I think this matters.
Many Con MPs and members will be looking for a serious candidate capable of making difficult decisions in what are obviously going to be painful times.
Others are like the worst side of GB News, obsessed with trivial wedge issues, Brexit purity and tax cuts.
Winning the contest may be dependent on the latter, and directly go against the former responsibility.
I think Rishi's challenge is that he thinks standing on a "balance the books" platform with a bit of personal charisma on top is enough.
Don't get me wrong: I'm a fiscal conservative. I like good stewardship of the public finances. But, he put taxes up a lot to pay for Boris's spending splurges - so what does he think about that?
What does he think the right balance is between public services and taxation? How would he address our productivity problem? What about the affordability of housing? The burdens on young people and families? Investment in future technologies? Defence and security?
Right now, I think he'd just be a strictish CoE in No.10 for 2 years, and then probably lose. I need more.
You may need 'more', but is that available? The numbers of the economy are such that making the wrong decisions now will make matters worse than they would otherwise be. The Tories should try to limit the size of their inevitable loss at the nest election by doing the right things for the UK economy. If not you could end up with a Tory wipeout.
I'm not arguing for irresponsibility: I'm arguing for a clear economic and political strategy from Sunak that will address the many deep-seated problems we have.
Right now all I know is that he will balance the books and hopes the rest will follow.
Some contenders for PM are pushing for tax cuts, what is your view on this?
I'd be interested in the economic evidence for cutting corporation tax from 25 to 15% to help boost investment and growth. But I'd need to see the analysis first and the impact on public finances.
I detest the increase in NI and the social care levy and wouldn't mind if it was reversed, particularly since it's against the manifesto. Otherwise that's a Trojan horse that's going to get ever greater.
I'd increase the state pension age to 70, earlier, if it had to be paid for and give pensioners a below CPI uplift next year of 5% and not 10%.
The current corp tax rate is 19%, so 60% of the ‘cut’ is the cancellation of next year’s planned rise to 25%.
Merge employee NI into income tax, long overdue.
Yes, I think so.
NI has been creeping up and up for years, both employee and employer side, and is a surrogate income tax and one on jobs.
NI has been creeping up because it's a hidden tax. For years manifestos said no increase in Income Tax, IHT, VAT or Corporation Tax leaving NI as just about the only thing they could touch without consequences.
Glad to be wrong on that. She is best of the candidates. Good speaker, well presented, some vision, and socially liberal.
If it wasn't for her Brexitism, I could vote for her.
Badenoch, Tugendhat and Mordaunt are my choices.
I am concerned about the Wokeness of Penny, but she could convince me.
Having a leader with at least half a foot in the modern world is surely an advantage for a political party?
For me, the issue is: who terrifies Labour the most?
I doubt Labour worries much beyond Mordaunt on that list.
Ditto the LibDems.
According to Opinium last night Sunak or Tugendhat should worry Labour most, both have a net 1% more saying they would make good PMs than bad.
Mordaunt has a net 1% saying she would make a bad PM, Truss has a net 14% saying she would make a bad PM, Hunt has a net 18% saying he would make a bad PM
I remain to be convinced most people have a clue who Mordaunt or Tugendhat are. Heck I’m not sure many people could pick Liz Truss out of an identity parade.
I have occupied a ringside seat for the involuntary departure of six previous prime ministers and for each of those there were expressions of empathy even from their fiercest opponents. Boris Johnson has proved the ignominious exception. His overdue defenestration has been as devoid of dignity and decency as his time at Number 10.
To the last, he had a wanton disregard for anyone’s interests but his own. The result was 40 hours of wild mayhem when he refused to leave even as the government imploded around him.
Character is destiny. As some of us always expected, he was ultimately undone by his amorality, his arrogance, his indiscipline and his duplicity. The great majority of the public had been saying “enough” for months. Even among those parts of the electorate that were once entertained by the Johnson shtick, the voters had realised that his jokes were at their expense.
He understood the power of oratory from the example of Churchill, but boosterish rhetoric is just verbal flatulence unless accompanied by dedicated endeavour in service of worthy causes. Countless colleagues and civil servants have given scathing testimony about his shambolic and capricious style of governing, with no coherent strategic direction, and decisions made and then reversed on a whim.
It will be an improvement if the Tory party can come up with a prime minister about whom it will not be the working assumption that he or she is lying every time that they part their lips. That is how low the bar has been left by Boris Johnson.
A perfect epitaph from Mr Rawnsley and a timely reminder why none of his Cabinet should be considered apprropriate choices to take over
Allegations are allegations. They are easy to make, and may or may not be true.
What is the relevant standard of proof to apply facing an accusation of misconduct?
Beyond reasonable doubt? On the balance of probabilities? Any credible allegation? Or the Caesar’s wife standard of ‘above suspicion’?
If we apply the Caesar's wife standard, there would be few politicians left in any party. Most of them have either done something dodgy, or done something that an opponent can portray as dodgy.
My view on Zahawi is that these are serious allegations, and they deserve a serious investigation, which HMRC will provide in due course. In the meantime, Zahawi remains innocent. So, Boris could legitimately appoint him.
Pincher is more serious, because these serious allegations were reported to Johnson ... who did nothing. Whereas Johnson should have ensured a serious investigation began.
For Pincher, it is not the allegations that are the significant thing, it is that Johnson did nothing.
Bit in bold works for me.
With Johnson, it wasn't that he did nothing, it was that he lied about having known, and - more significantly - made other ministers repeat that false statement on his behalf.
For me, knowing a serious allegation and doing nothing is enough. (The things you mention make it worse).
But, look at British public life.
There are plenty of allegations that are "well known" but never investigated. (E.g. Saville)
As regards allegations, there are just two rules.
1. All allegations should be investigated, no matter how frivolous.
2. Serious allegations deserve a serious investigation, in which the case for the defence and the case for the prosecution are both heard. If you just hear the latter, you always convict.
Sunak is alleged to be an excellent skiier.
Well he is the Davos candidate.
Who’s the Davros candidate? Zahawi I’d say unless Patel chucks her bunnet in the ring.
But can he get up and down stairs? And does he have flashing lights on his head snd start to say "Exterminate" Exterminate!" when he gets excited?
Comments
Can't see her winning this one to be PM with lack of senior experience. Are the Tories that crazy? They did pick Johnson... So laid most of her back.
Sunak is my best return at the mo.
I have occupied a ringside seat for the involuntary departure of six previous prime ministers and for each of those there were expressions of empathy even from their fiercest opponents. Boris Johnson has proved the ignominious exception. His overdue defenestration has been as devoid of dignity and decency as his time at Number 10.
To the last, he had a wanton disregard for anyone’s interests but his own. The result was 40 hours of wild mayhem when he refused to leave even as the government imploded around him.
Character is destiny. As some of us always expected, he was ultimately undone by his amorality, his arrogance, his indiscipline and his duplicity. The great majority of the public had been saying “enough” for months. Even among those parts of the electorate that were once entertained by the Johnson shtick, the voters had realised that his jokes were at their expense.
He understood the power of oratory from the example of Churchill, but boosterish rhetoric is just verbal flatulence unless accompanied by dedicated endeavour in service of worthy causes. Countless colleagues and civil servants have given scathing testimony about his shambolic and capricious style of governing, with no coherent strategic direction, and decisions made and then reversed on a whim.
It will be an improvement if the Tory party can come up with a prime minister about whom it will not be the working assumption that he or she is lying every time that they part their lips. That is how low the bar has been left by Boris Johnson.
Looking forward to hustings where all candidates get asked "what is a woman?". (Although we were robbed of Boris's answer to that in 2019, which could have been, er, illuminating....)
5th September is 8 weeks away (2 months) and we may have a PM by 21st July
Once the 1922 set the timetable tomorrow evening and the hustings commence, a technical and political vote is irrelevant
It's now July.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jul/10/teachers-and-nurses-ready-to-quit-over-delays-to-pay-rises-union-leaders-warn
I doubt Labour worries much beyond Mordaunt on that list.
Ditto the LibDems.
I would be delighted to see Penny win but if not Rishi as I believe his fiscal management at this time is important and offering unaffordable tax cuts is misguided and not where the public are, and finally Liz would be an interesting PM though I have my reservations
It's a multi-millionaire using taxpayer money to heat his stables
Could be good for the Lib Dems.
"In his armada of untruths, the flagship mendacity has been that a Johnson-led Brexit Britain would enjoy “a new golden age”. "
Angela Rayner says PM must “go now” and calls for transparency.
LDs demand an “immediate investigation.”
Story here: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/eaa4867a-ff9f-11ec-b9c1-d737fca5ec6a?shareToken=30fa3b77e364796f9c4f8bfdce7426dd https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1546037913435217921/photo/1
Peak excess deaths, even when not having covid written on the death certificate, have very much the same pattern as the covid pandemic waves, with a slight lag.
Missed and neglected non-covid disease certainly exists, but it wouldn't follow that pattern, but would occur fairly evenly across peaks and troughs.
I think most are related to undiagnosed covid, and in particular to the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular effects of infection.
Tom Tugendhat refuses to say whether he regrets voting Remain.
He also pledges two tax cuts: National Insurance and fuel duty and says he'd look at cutting corporation tax too. @RidgeOnSunday
https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1546037297153548288
Until we get to the stage of asking candidates whether they regret voting leave we are still screwed
FUEL DUTY!!!!
1. Cut tax?
2. Be aggressive on Brexit?
3. Increase defence spending?
4. Say trans-women are not women?
And then - very oddly for a Tory contest - this one is a long way behind:
5. Win the next election?
6. https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/1546039192106442752
I detest the increase in NI and the social care levy and wouldn't mind if it was reversed, particularly since it's against the manifesto. Otherwise that's a Trojan horse that's going to get ever greater.
I'd increase the state pension age to 70, earlier, if it had to be paid for and give pensioners a below CPI uplift next year of 5% and not 10%.
I was one of the 25% willing to go less, but the mooted 2% is not tolerable. That effectively means a real terms paycut equivalent to working unpaid for a month.
There is a hell of a storm brewing on this.
I hope and expect he will get an important cabinet position
Or, more probably, the heat?
Merge employee NI into income tax, long overdue.
The latter, in particular, will be surveying a significant pay jump filling supermarket shelves with 1% of the hassle. And getting paid out of term time too.
The goal I am setting myself is losing 10% of my bodyweight over 10 weeks. Which would take me safely out of obesity in to the 'slightly overweight' category and would be the lowest weight I have been in 5 years.
Plan
1. No alcohol at all for 10 weeks. This is going to be hard. I've got holidays and parties coming up. And long overdue meetings with old friends for 'beers'. But, my experience is that after about 3 weeks the actual cravings for alcohol go and you just switch to being sober. Alternatively, if you switch back to drinking, then the whole edifice quickly collapses.
2. I've got a diet which involves calorie counted food. A friend who was very good at losing weight did so by just eating pre bought ready meals just because even though they aren't the healthiest food, they were at least calorie counted.
3. Going to the gym 2-3 times per week. Involving 30 mins on an exercise bike and then some light weight training, possibly followed by a swim.
4. Getting around town by bike. Pedal bike.
I take the view that there is a lot of uncertainty about weight loss and think that everyone has their own path. However, in terms of the vague science of what motivates us to find and stick to a plan, the book below about how to overcome procrastination is quite insightful.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/End-Procrastination-Stop-Postponing-Fulfilled/dp/1250308054
And what sort of weird electorate is it where pledges to cut corporation tax are coming so quickly and fast?
Whether this continues with Omicron compared to original covid, only time will tell.
She's a human being. She comes across as a human being. She's clearly bright and hard working and is willing to take on a very silly bet.
I could see myself voting for her.
I could also see myself voting for Truss.
Sunak does not appeal at all. Suella ditto. Hunt is long done. TT: I'm like, who?
Javid would be fine. Zahawi: no. Kemi: no strong views.
- as far as possible, cutting out sugar and things with sugar in them
- eat breakfast and one other meal, either a large late lunch with nothing in the evening, or an early large dinner (if there’s a difference!). It’s hard to eat extra at one meal than you are saving by not having another.
https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/1545996978819055616?s=20&t=rPjG5Cr8D8916dZJy8MG7Q
It's that kind of talk that gets you PM Liz Truss, who remember, before her Damascene, William Glenn-like conversion was a Remainer...and a Liberal Democrat!
I follow a soup and fruit diet over several weeks with no snacks, chocolate or biscuits and the weight comes off quite quickly
All the best and next to stopping smoking 18 years ago weight loss is a bit of a battle
And if you're worried about the health of it, you can have it with a big side of fresh salad.
All the best.
Yes, slashing duty/VAT on fuel will have a negative impact on tax revenues,. But what is the cost if we don't? And as the Liaison Committee pointed out on Boris's Day Of Shame, his government have made bold declarations about an end to fossil fuelled vehicles. With zero plan to replace the tax revenues.
I still remain hesitant she will get it because of several factors:
1. Up against Rishi or Truss she will be branded with the “inexperienced” label and the other side will be desperate to paint her as not having enough experience.
2. She is not well known in the country so that could define her as too inexperienced (the media could run with this, in a similar way as they did with Leadsom in 2016, albeit she didn’t help herself) thereby pressuring the membership to go for Rishi/Truss.
3. She will be the one that Rishi/Truss supporters fear the most in a head to head. There could be tactical voting in the final MP vote.
Edit: and 4. I am starting to wonder if the Tory Party is going to be more focussed on indulging itself with tax cuts and red meat than on being electorally popular. Government fatigue may have set in.
They do need to recognise the problem, though. Cf housing.
My own private practice is via a Ltd company, so I should stay in the lower bracket.
Expenditure cuts should be declared as an explicit corollary.
From my point of view, I'm rooting for Truss. Please.
Indeed ironically neither are labour
Zahawi may be innocent of wrongdoing. But when fighting scandals why invite another? What if he wins the contest and then the investigation shows wrongdoing after all?
Again I think this is showing up the unhealthy internal status of the Party. The Conservative Party is the grand old party of government. Under the bonnet it should be constantly evaluating, discarding and promoting its future prospects. Deals should be being made, no-hopers should be weeded out on the promise of future promotion. At any one time it should really be ready to go with 3/4 decent candidates with the rest being persuaded to sit it out.
The fact we’ve got 10-12 people of varying levels of ability (I’ll be charitable) suggests that the internal machine has broken down. Everyone is in it for themselves. And that doesn’t bode well for the next election, or for the eventual fall from power.
spirit.
Just listened to Rishi's clip about not having working class friends. Funny and quite endearing though the reality is quite spooky. It makes me think he's open and honest which after Boris is going to seem the most important quality in the world.
I think there is a place for passive infection control measures such as ventilation and air filtration, avoiding overcrowding in enclosed spaces, appropriate hygiene and WFH when symptomatic etc. Certainly I would want to continue public health surveillance and vaccination of the vulnerable.
Just because we cannot eliminate it, doesn't
mean doing nothing. No one is calling for further lockdowns etc, but non intrusive interventions seem reasonable.
As for Fuel Duty - you put a taper on it based on oil prices so that the duty is £0 when the price is over £x a barrel. Then it becomes a question of what pump price would be acceptable at the moment - do we need £1.50 a litre or would £1.75 work....
We can remove Grant from the runners and riders.....
What on earth is he thinking
Another fantasy is what the selectorate and the electorate want.
I have no problem at all with how Tudendhat voted. My problem is that he is almost completely unheard of and absolutely untested. I mentioned him to my better half last night and she had never heard of him. She reads a newspaper every day, watches a lot more news than most and is interested in politics and current affairs. When I told her that he was Chair of the Foreign Affairs select committee her response was, well, not a serious candidate then. For all his merits I think that this is right.
Mordaunt has a net 1% saying she would make a bad PM. Javid has a net 2% saying he would be a bad PM. Zahawi has a net 11% saying he would make a bad PM and Truss has a net 14% saying she would make a bad PM. Shapps has a net 17% saying he would be a bad PM and Hunt has a net 18% saying he would make a bad PM.
Patel would be Labour's dream candidate it seems, a net 40% say Priti would make a bad PM
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1545850475840503811?s=20&t=rPjG5Cr8D8916dZJy8MG7Q
NI has been creeping up and up for years, both employee and employer side, and is a surrogate income tax and one on jobs.
Many Con MPs and members will be looking for a serious candidate capable of making difficult decisions in what are obviously going to be painful times.
Others are like the worst side of GB News, obsessed with trivial wedge issues, Brexit purity and tax cuts.
Winning the contest may be dependent on the latter, and directly go against the former responsibility.
“The trouble with Boris is that he’s not very interested in governing. He’s only interested in two things. Being world king and shagging.”