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Boris Johnson learned nothing from Pinchergate – politicalbetting.com

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  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,948
    edited July 2022
    Good morning. It’s going to be a (pleasantly, normally) hot one.

    Like it or not the leadership contest is going to give voters weeks of blanket coverage of the candidates and with that will come increased recognition and increased credibility for whoever wins. The Tories are doing their regular Dr Who reincarnation trick, aided by the media, before our eyes.

    5% poll lead for the conservatives in the week after whoever the lucky winner is gets installed.

    Thems the breaks.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,565

    He's desperate.
    Hope he loses if that is the case. Awful decision.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,030
    dixiedean said:

    How important will the 1922 elections be now? Does anyone know what the candidates are saying about how quickly they would like to see this contest?

    The secretary announced yesterday the details will be announced tomorrow but the final 2 will be sent to the membership on the 21st July and the new PM in office by the 5th September
  • Penny is who scares me the most as a Labour chap. I don’t think she’d win the Red Wall but she’d possibly deliver a Cameron majority
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398

    DavidL said:

    I did pretty much all of that (except the bike) in lockdown 1 and felt much the better for it. Unfortunately lockdown 2 had much more negative effects on my mood and behaviour. What you are undertaking is not easy but keeping it up once goals have been achieved is, in my own pathetic experience, much, much harder. Try to prepare for that challenge now.
    DavidL said:

    I did pretty much all of that (except the bike) in lockdown 1 and felt much the better for it. Unfortunately lockdown 2 had much more negative effects on my mood and behaviour. What you are undertaking is not easy but keeping it up once goals have been achieved is, in my own pathetic experience, much, much harder. Try to prepare for that challenge now.
    Thanks David; yes I agree. I had similar problems with mood in lockdown. With health, I've been going through similar cycles for the last 15 years. It goes well for a while (normally a stretch of a few months), and then all is lost, and then I eventually come to the realisation that I have to start over again, which usually coincides with deciding to stop drinking for a while.

    The book I linked to above is quite good because it tries to set out a practical plan to tackle these 'cycles', by building up a structure that you need to follow. It then tries to look at what is going on when you try and avoid following the plan you have set yourself, Ie by 'procrastinating'. I've got it on my kindle and have read it about 5 times. It is just a self help book but it is rooted in serious academic study, and doesn't rely on the creation of pseudoscientific myths and stories.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,355
    DavidL said:

    I have been saying that for a while. And as for those candidates who are promising tax cuts in the short term, they need to go into the deeply unserious and delusional recepticle. I don't know where the government is going to get the money from but it sure as hell isn't tax cuts.
    True, but there's an argument for stimulus over the next 2 years during the current crisis and a path to balance later.

    Just like how we cut VAT to 15% (temporarily) during the GFC but eventually increased to 20%.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    edited July 2022
    eek said:

    NI has been creeping up because it's a hidden tax. For years manifestos said no increase in Income Tax, IHT, VAT or Corporation Tax leaving NI as just about the only thing they could touch without consequences.
    Trouble with that is that paying NI has been advertised for so long as payment in advance for your OAP that almost every OAP in the galaxy will regard [edit] merging it into IT as a direct breach of promise. The triple lock was bad enough. And who benefits from the grey vote?

    (This comment omits the ones such as ye and me who know what the scheme really is, so there is no need to adduce that.)
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,079
    HYUFD said:

    According to Opinium last night Sunak or Tugendhat should worry Labour most, both have a net 1% more saying they would make good PMs than bad.

    Mordaunt has a net 1% saying she would make a bad PM. Javid has a net 2% saying he would be a bad PM. Zahawi has a net 11% saying he would make a bad PM and Truss has a net 14% saying she would make a bad PM. Shapps has a net 17% saying he would be a bad PM and Hunt has a net 18% saying he would make a bad PM.

    Patel would be Labour's dream candidate it seems, a net 40% say Priti would make a bad PM

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1545850475840503811?s=20&t=rPjG5Cr8D8916dZJy8MG7Q

    It's going to be Sunak and Mordaunt put to the Tory membership isn't it?

  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,463
    kle4 said:

    Or former Cabinet.
    So it's got to be Hunt (with a 'H") ?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    kle4 said:

    I'd wondered that too. Seems odd when my understandings was it was just a branding issue, not actually a distinct sister party.
    Seems to be a separate entity

    Its Members shall comprise:

    4.1 Individuals (referred to in this Constitution as “Party Members”);
    4.2 Local operational units (referred to in this Constitution as “Associations”), whose members shall
    only comprise Party Members;
    4.3 Recognised Organisations, whose members shall only comprise Party Members, (other than
    expressly provided by the Board) being other organisations recognised by the Board.
    4.4 The Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party, and its members (referred to in this Constitution as
    “Scottish Party Members”) subject to the provisions of Schedule 8.

    https://public.conservatives.com/organisation-department/202101/Conservative Party Constitution as amended January 2021.pdf
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    Scott_xP said:

    It feels like Priti Patel is preparing to announce she's running... Several MPs have now tweeted urging her to stand. https://twitter.com/VotePursglove/status/1546010907637080065

    Probably her behind the attacks on other candidates and she can pull a 'I wasnt sure if I should stand but after hearing X I saw I was needed'.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    edited July 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    Seems to be a separate entity

    Its Members shall comprise:

    4.1 Individuals (referred to in this Constitution as “Party Members”);
    4.2 Local operational units (referred to in this Constitution as “Associations”), whose members shall
    only comprise Party Members;
    4.3 Recognised Organisations, whose members shall only comprise Party Members, (other than
    expressly provided by the Board) being other organisations recognised by the Board.
    4.4 The Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party, and its members (referred to in this Constitution as
    “Scottish Party Members”) subject to the provisions of Schedule 8.

    https://public.conservatives.com/organisation-department/202101/Conservative Party Constitution as amended January 2021.pdf
    I think that's the scar with stitches, so to speak, of the Frankenstein merger. Now, very much part of the C&UP. Not separate as it used to be.

    I suspect there were legal issues as well as negotiation involved |(e.g. trust funds) that forced a visible joint.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,030
    I do find it amusing that the person to bring down the last three conservative pms is one Boris Johnson
  • IanB2 said:



    The surest ways to lose weight that I have found are:

    - as far as possible, cutting out sugar and things with sugar in them

    - eat breakfast and one other meal, either a large late lunch with nothing in the evening, or an early large dinner (if there’s a difference!). It’s hard to eat extra at one meal than you are saving by not having another.
    Good suggestions. Also get into a healthy sleep routine, early to bed and early to rise. Self discipline is much easier when you are sleeping well.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,463

    Jeremy Hunt has just said on BBC he would have Esther Mcvey as his deputy

    What on earth is he thinking

    So that's Hunt and Shapps gone....
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    I do find it amusing that the person to bring down the last three conservative pms is one Boris Johnson

    He might manage one or two more!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,327
    Foxy said:

    It is going to be around long term, but who knows how virulent.

    I think there is a place for passive infection control measures such as ventilation and air filtration, avoiding overcrowding in enclosed spaces, appropriate hygiene and WFH when symptomatic etc. Certainly I would want to continue public health surveillance and vaccination of the vulnerable.

    Just because we cannot eliminate it, doesn't
    mean doing nothing. No one is calling for further lockdowns etc, but non intrusive interventions seem reasonable.
    I noticed in Waitrose in Cowbridge yesterday there was around 10% maskage, mostly over 60s. Up from zero a few weeks ago.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,030
    I would just observe that the interrogation the media are giving the candidates should interest labour as this is the spotlight they will come under in the next election which so far has not featured in any way
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    kjh said:

    Absolutely. Most of the population don't know who most MPs are outside of a few key ones and therefore these polls @HYUFD quote comparing potential leaders are meaningless as they don't compare like with like.

    Regardless of policies Penny Mordant comes over as the most human so as a LD the one I fear most.
    They aren't meaningless as of those who know who they are they show who has good opinions of then and who don't.

    In terms of who would fare best v Labour that is significant
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,539
    Hunt giving straight answers. Rare event for a politician.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,137
    BREAKING: Penny Mordaunt launches her bid to be leader https://twitter.com/pennymordaunt/status/1546049184373121024
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,565

    Pub quiz questions in the future will probably be framed something along the lines of: “who didn’t run for the Tory leadership in 2022?”

    Again I think this is showing up the unhealthy internal status of the Party. The Conservative Party is the grand old party of government. Under the bonnet it should be constantly evaluating, discarding and promoting its future prospects. Deals should be being made, no-hopers should be weeded out on the promise of future promotion. At any one time it should really be ready to go with 3/4 decent candidates with the rest being persuaded to sit it out.

    The fact we’ve got 10-12 people of varying levels of ability (I’ll be charitable) suggests that the internal machine has broken down. Everyone is in it for themselves. And that doesn’t bode well for the next election, or for the eventual fall from power.
    Patels at 90.

    So might be worth a nibble, knowing that will come down to say 20 if she runs?

  • Ooh.. just found four more cucumbers that were hiding at the back of the pot. That’s nineteen I’ve had already, from a three quid plant.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    I am coming round to her too. I worry she has not had significant experience at the high levels of government (a short stint as defence secretary is all) but she seems grounded, measured, comes across well, speaks to modern society. Which is about as much as can be said for any of the candidates.

    I still remain hesitant she will get it because of several factors:

    1. Up against Rishi or Truss she will be branded with the “inexperienced” label and the other side will be desperate to paint her as not having enough experience.

    2. She is not well known in the country so that could define her as too inexperienced (the media could run with this, in a similar way as they did with Leadsom in 2016, albeit she didn’t help herself) thereby pressuring the membership to go for Rishi/Truss.

    3. She will be the one that Rishi/Truss supporters fear the most in a head to head. There could be tactical voting in the final MP vote.

    Edit: and 4. I am starting to wonder if the Tory Party is going to be more focussed on indulging itself with tax cuts and red meat than on being electorally popular. Government fatigue may have set in.
    I think point 4 is a certainty. They seem exhausted and fed up. The grassroots just want to be made happy even if it's a bad idea. It was actually a rare sign of being grown up thsy saw the government make decisions on NI etc they knew the party did not like, and had to rely on their big majority to do.
  • strawbrickstrawbrick Posts: 22
    Many thanks for the help with the betting terms.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,272
    darkage said:

    H Can the 'excess' death data be broken down by age? It would be good to know which age groups are most affected by the increase in excess deaths.
    Yes, this group of actuaries have done some interesting work on that aspect. While obviously mortality rates are lower in younger age groups, the percentage increase of excess deaths has been quite high in the middle aged. Certainly enough to give me pause for thought about my own retirement plans.

    https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1544604591475531776?t=ujOiyJV1Dcy38tGBSWF3DQ&s=19

    "What can age-specific excess deaths tell us?
    The direct impacts of COVID-19 on excess deaths were felt hardest in older age groups in absolute terms. However, all adult age groups from 50 years and above saw between 18-23% more deaths in the first year of the pandemic than would have been expected under normal conditions.

    In the second year of the pandemic, we are seeing quite different patterns by age. Since the second wave, and after the administration of at least one dose of a vaccine to most adults, we have observed 12%, 10% and 5% more deaths in 50-64, 25-49 and 65-74 year olds respectively."


  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,030
    edited July 2022
    Hunt on BBC

    pro Rwanda policy

    against abolishing BBC license

    pro net zero by 2050

    no indyref2 for 10 years

    will not lockdown again

    Esther McVey deputy PM
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,012
    kjh said:

    Hunt giving straight answers. Rare event for a politician.

    He's a "safe pair of hands". Faint praise.

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,327
    HYUFD said:

    They aren't meaningless as of those who know who they are they show who has good opinions of then and who don't.

    In terms of who would fare best v Labour that is significant
    Very, very off topic

    ...and while you're on. Weald of Kent Grammar School Group.

    HYUFD please explain.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    edited July 2022
    Barnesian said:

    It's going to be Sunak and Mordaunt put to the Tory membership isn't it?

    In terms of MPs declared so far Sunak leads followed by Mordaunt, Braverman, Truss, Hunt and Zahawi close for second

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1545847535595577346?s=20&t=rPjG5Cr8D8916dZJy8MG7Q
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,272

    I remain to be convinced most people have a clue who Mordaunt or Tugendhat are. Heck I’m not sure many people could pick Liz Truss out of an identity parade.
    Yes, in that survey about 60% had no opinion on either Maudaunt or Tugenhat, so that 1% positivity is thinly based.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    HYUFD said:

    They aren't meaningless as of those who know who they are they show who has good opinions of then and who don't.

    In terms of who would fare best v Labour that is significant
    It's a halfway position. It shows what those who know them think, but because so many have no clue who they are you cannot rule out that once they are more prominent the public overall will take a different view.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    DavidL said:

    Of course you can. The nutters who still obsess on this minor change in our trading arrangements on either side are a drag on this country and are involved in displacement activity so that they don't have to address the more difficult stuff.

    I have no problem at all with how Tudendhat voted. My problem is that he is almost completely unheard of and absolutely untested. I mentioned him to my better half last night and she had never heard of him. She reads a newspaper every day, watches a lot more news than most and is interested in politics and current affairs. When I told her that he was Chair of the Foreign Affairs select committee her response was, well, not a serious candidate then. For all his merits I think that this is right.
    The one thing it bloody isn't is a minor change in our trading arrangements. Only someone who sold 100% of their product into the domestic market would even pretend to think that

    I don't think much of the argument from spousal ignorance either. I didn't know what sex kemi badenoch was till 48 hours ago. The electorate here is not the general public, and whoever gets to be PM will be plenty well known by the time a GE comes around
  • James_MJames_M Posts: 103
    Morning all. On nutrition and food, everyone is of course different. I have found, as noted below, that reducing my sugar intake really helped my weight. A really interesting book I read recently was called 'Why we Eat (too much)' by Andrew Jenkinson. Lots of it is him, from his vast experience, hypothesising the cause of weight gain; but I found his suggestions around everyone having a weight set-point which is controlled by a complex mix of hormones etc rather convincing. Well worth a read and you can find him on some podcasts, although the book is far clearer.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,945

    Hunt on BBC

    pro Rwanda policy

    against abolishing BBC license

    pro net zero by 2050

    no indyref2 for 10 years

    will not lockdown again

    Esther McVey deputy PM

    No obvious USP in there. With the exception of McVey. Which fulfills the U+P.
    Not sure about the S.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,414

    I noticed in Waitrose in Cowbridge yesterday there was around 10% maskage, mostly over 60s. Up from zero a few weeks ago.
    I was in a gun shop in East LA today (don't ask), and there were a significant number of people wearing masks (like 15-20%).
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,307
    Pleased Penny is running, but her logo is horrendous. Gives off “Organisation of British Widget Suppliers” vibes.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,079
    edited July 2022
    HYUFD said:

    In terms of MPs declared so far Sunak leads followed by Braverman, Truss, Hunt and Zahawi tied for second. Mordaunt is third behind them

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1545847535595577346?s=20&t=rPjG5Cr8D8916dZJy8MG7Q
    Mordaunt is now second on Guido's list.


    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ffqemZ-YOi7AvAw8HbxmMd0vIbsOXLZ7KpAmNQPD2r8/htmlview?pru=AAABggKjCN0*5ZzpFE1csaUEUURQoLlw6w#gid=0

    And shortening to 5.3 on BetFair.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095

    Very, very off topic

    ...and while you're on. Weald of Kent Grammar School Group.

    HYUFD please explain.
    Excellent grammar school across 2 sites
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,463

    You can anyway
    It'll be tricky to support that policy when had it existed earlier the majority of leadership candidates wouldn't have had an opportunity of ever becoming citizens of the UK.
  • noisywinternoisywinter Posts: 249
    Barnesian said:

    A great line


    Really? I thought that video was a spoof and the tagline? Dearie me

    If the Tories don't choose Hunt they deserve what's coming to them
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,189
    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING: Penny Mordaunt launches her bid to be leader https://twitter.com/pennymordaunt/status/1546049184373121024

    That is a deeply ordinary video. Having Boris in it was a mistake. Having platitudes and cliches at every turn when her first priority is to actually improve name awareness and distinctiveness is just daft. Really quite disappointed.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095

    Really? I thought that video was a spoof and the tagline? Dearie me

    If the Tories don't choose Hunt they deserve what's coming to them
    If the Tories do choose Hunt however it would be Farage coming for them again
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Barnesian said:

    A great line


    Very very good

    Puts Ready for Rishi* in its place

    *Sounds like an arch way of asking your partner whether they have lubed up.

    My top 3 now Tom, kemi, penny
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    DavidL said:

    That is a deeply ordinary video. Having Boris in it was a mistake. Having platitudes and cliches at every turn when her first priority is to actually improve name awareness and distinctiveness is just daft. Really quite disappointed.
    Well she was only Reading not Oxford like Rishi don't you know. What does one expect?
  • Penny looks good.

    So what does she believe in and what are her policies.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,030

    Really? I thought that video was a spoof and the tagline? Dearie me

    If the Tories don't choose Hunt they deserve what's coming to them
    After this morning on BBC I would suggest he is unlikely to feature

    Indeed Mordaunt is the one to watch

    I expect the final three to be Sunak- Mordaunt - Truss

    And final 2 Sunak v Mordaunt

    Membership most likely Mordaunt

    I have made my prediction and think it is not far off
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Hunt on BBC

    pro Rwanda policy

    against abolishing BBC license

    pro net zero by 2050

    no indyref2 for 10 years

    will not lockdown again

    Esther McVey deputy PM

    Set Thames on fire ❌
  • I’d like to hear a lot more about things like FTTP, we need to get this rolled out quicker and faster. How will the Government do this.

    How will the Government increase 5G coverage and stop masts being rejected. What do they plan to do on the SRN?

    This is true levelling up.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,189
    rcs1000 said:

    I was in a gun shop in East LA today (don't ask), and there were a significant number of people wearing masks (like 15-20%).
    Yes Robert, but they weren't really buying things...
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,989
    dixiedean said:

    On point 2. Weight Watchers does a range which varies from the utterly bland, to surprisingly tasty. Don't just buy one and then bin it off as a disappointment, they are worth persisting with.
    And if you're worried about the health of it, you can have it with a big side of fresh salad.
    All the best.

    Even "non-slimming" ready meals are OK in my experience.
    An Indian or Chinese ready meal from the supermarket will be one container, half rice, half curry or whatever.
    A takeaway will be a similar-sized container of each!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,189
    HYUFD said:

    Well she was only Reading not Oxford like Rishi don't you know. What does one expect?
    So she's not actually qualified for the post then? Hmmm...
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,989
    geoffw said:

    He's a "safe pair of hands". Faint praise.

    Nobody is running as "I'm an unsafe pair of hands" though, are they?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,272
    James_M said:

    Morning all. On nutrition and food, everyone is of course different. I have found, as noted below, that reducing my sugar intake really helped my weight. A really interesting book I read recently was called 'Why we Eat (too much)' by Andrew Jenkinson. Lots of it is him, from his vast experience, hypothesising the cause of weight gain; but I found his suggestions around everyone having a weight set-point which is controlled by a complex mix of hormones etc rather convincing. Well worth a read and you can find him on some podcasts, although the book is far clearer.

    Yes, it sounds interesting.

    I highly recommend Fearnley-Whittingstals book "Eat better Forever" too.

    For a diet to work it has to be sustainable for the individual in the long term. His seven points cover it well, the recipies are interesting, but the text and ideas behind his thinking are sound.

  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,012
    edited July 2022

    Nobody is running as "I'm an unsafe pair of hands" though, are they?
    Quite.
    ETA It was not a self-description but Sophie Raworth's.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,189

    Nobody is running as "I'm an unsafe pair of hands" though, are they?
    Oh I don't know about that....
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,272
    rcs1000 said:

    I was in a gun shop in East LA today (don't ask), and there were a significant number of people wearing masks (like 15-20%).
    Budding armed robbers?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,012
    Javid resigned on hearing a preacher talk about integrity in public life. wtf
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,366

    Nobody is running as "I'm an unsafe pair of hands" though, are they?
    We've just tried one of those.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,035

    For me, the issue is: who terrifies Labour the most?

    I doubt Labour worries much beyond Mordaunt on that list.

    Ditto the LibDems.
    Agreed, Tughenhat as well possibly. I doubt either could win a ballot of the members though as so many of those that might support them left during Johnson's reign.

    On the other hand several of the contenders would push the Tory's ratings lower than Johnson's.
  • This is certainly not turning out to be a Johnson 2.0. This is very much a retreat to traditional Tory lines and ground.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    rcs1000 said:

    I was in a gun shop in East LA today (don't ask), and there were a significant number of people wearing masks (like 15-20%).
    DavidL said:

    That is a deeply ordinary video. Having Boris in it was a mistake. Having platitudes and cliches at every turn when her first priority is to actually improve name awareness and distinctiveness is just daft. Really quite disappointed.
    Very retro voice-over (posh white male, why?)
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 1,240

    An Indian or Chinese ready meal from the supermarket will be one container, half rice, half curry or whatever.
    A takeaway will be a similar-sized container of each!

    Mmm, takeaway portion sizes irritate me, and are part of why I don't eat them -- I usually want something like half to two thirds the standard size. Fish and chip shop portion sizes are usually about 50% too big for my liking as well.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,824
    Good luck @darkage with the War on Weight

    I put on a solid 10 pounds during Covid, and it is proving extremely hard to shift - taking me from normal to overweight - whereas for the decade before that I was highly disciplined, and stayed close to my ideal weight. No problem

    I don’t think it’s my metabolism or diet that has changed, it’s my psychology. Covid was so bloody terrible, in so many ways, it has debuted a new voice in my mental choir: the voice that says Fuck it, life is short, this could be your last meal, enjoy. I suspect I’m not alone. Covid has changed many, mentally
  • eekeek Posts: 29,739
    rcs1000 said:

    I was in a gun shop in East LA today (don't ask), and there were a significant number of people wearing masks (like 15-20%).
    Are many gun shops in East LA open past midnight?

  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,079

    Who would be best for the country? Hunt - to clear out the stable
    Who will the membership choose? Sunak
    Who would be best for the LibDems? Zahawi
    Who would be best for my book? Truss (on at 60/1 with William Hill)
    Who would I enjoy watching as PM? Mordaunt
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    DavidL said:

    That is a deeply ordinary video. Having Boris in it was a mistake. Having platitudes and cliches at every turn when her first priority is to actually improve name awareness and distinctiveness is just daft. Really quite disappointed.
    The video was too corny by half. However the maritime theme could be very appealing particularly to a Tory selectorate. And the point about the ship not the captain rings true.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,272

    Penny looks good.

    So what does she believe in and what are her policies.

    She published this vision recently.

    Greater: Britain After the Storm https://amzn.eu/d/eC9iQMd

    Her launch video is a pretty direct return to traditional Toryism, indeed she cosplays Maggie rather more convincingly than Truss, and without the nasty streak being obvious.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,565
    Barnesian said:


    Who would be best for the country? Hunt - to clear out the stable
    Who will the membership choose? Sunak
    Who would be best for the LibDems? Zahawi
    Who would be best for my book? Truss (on at 60/1 with William Hill)
    Who would I enjoy watching as PM? Mordaunt

    The membership will choose Sunak?

  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,463
    edited July 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    Very very good

    Puts Ready for Rishi* in its place

    *Sounds like an arch way of asking your partner whether they have lubed up.

    My top 3 now Tom, kemi, penny
    I hated everything about that Mordaunt video. It was just awful. The VO (probably Gyles Brandreth) was portentious to the point of being sick making. If you were burying the Queen it might have been suitable but as it is it was old fashioned fuddy duddy pompous nonsense.

    The only saving grace was 'PM4PM' which was cute

    Thats goodbye Shapps Mordaunt and Hunt....
  • Kemi up to nine - Caroline Johnson is supporting her
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,307
    I was wondering why Philip Davies was backing Hunt.

    Now we know: make his missus DPM.

    He fought a dreadful campaign against Johnson in 2019 (I still voted for him) and now he's determined to do even worse.

    I'm only a marginal Rishi fan....could be swayed to Penny. Must make an effort to watch interviews with the (serious) candidates and preferably through debates as well.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,272
    IshmaelZ said:

    Very retro voice-over (posh white male, why?)
    Sounded like Michael Howard to me. Was it?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Roger said:

    I hated everything about that Mordaunt video. It was just awful. The VO (probably Gyles Brandreth was portentious to the point of being sick making. If you were burying the Queen it might have been suitable but as it is it was old fashioned fuddy duddy pompous nonsense.

    Thats goodbye Shapps Mordaunt and Hunt....
    Yes it was just the strapline I was applauding. Now seen the video and meh. But always remember the intended audience is not me or thee.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398

    Even "non-slimming" ready meals are OK in my experience.
    An Indian or Chinese ready meal from the supermarket will be one container, half rice, half curry or whatever.
    A takeaway will be a similar-sized container of each!
    Yeah I think it is more just the point that they are calorie counted; its just a lazy way of achieving portion control more than anything else. I've never really gone in to specialist weight loss food because I have always found it synthetic and disappointing, perhaps unfairly.

    Takeaways are terrible because they aren't calorie counted. It has often occured to me that many of the meals sold by takeaways and restaurants are basically 2000 calories in one go. These are even supposedly upmarket and 'hipster' places.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,307
    edited July 2022

    The video was too corny by half. However the maritime theme could be very appealing particularly to a Tory selectorate. And the point about the ship not the captain rings true.
    I must admit I cringed. It is however aimed at both the membership and (I think) trying to show she can appeal to the red wall (though in that respect she could have tried to avoid having Mr Cholmondley-Warner narrating)

  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,539
    HYUFD said:

    Well she was only Reading not Oxford like Rishi don't you know. What does one expect?
    I actually think that was quite good. Now don't get me wrong I actually thought it very naff, but I don't have a vote so what I think doesn't matter, but it struck me that it might work well on those that do have a vote.
  • James_MJames_M Posts: 103
    @Foxy Thanks for the recommendation of the book. Looking at its description it seems to align with what Jenkinson argues as a way forward at the end. What I like about Jenkinson's book is that the vast majority is exploring why people gain weight, the risks of dieting etc from his time as a bariatric surgeon. A lot is linked to the body thinking it is/is not in a period of starvation based on our eating habits and the food we eat and the way hormones communicate to the brain. It seemed intuitively convincing to me although more research is needed I am sure. But he is critical of sugar, processed food and beyond. For me I try (not always well) to adhere to a Mediterranean diet and think the stuff on blue zones is very interesting.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 1,240
    IshmaelZ said:

    The electorate here is not the general public, and whoever gets to be PM will be plenty well known by the time a GE comes around

    Yes -- as a member of the general public I would like MPs to vote based on what they know about the candidates, who they have worked alongside for years. Hopefully they know who has the clever ideas, who sounds good in meetings but never quite seems to get anything done, and who has a genuine interest in making peoples' lives better rather than merely climbing the greasy pole. They have several years to sell their eventual choice to the public, and they'll have an easier job doing so if they pick based on core character strengths.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,565

    After this morning on BBC I would suggest he is unlikely to feature

    Indeed Mordaunt is the one to watch

    I expect the final three to be Sunak- Mordaunt - Truss

    And final 2 Sunak v Mordaunt

    Membership most likely Mordaunt

    I have made my prediction and think it is not far off
    That video basically screams: "I'm not Boris"
  • juniusjunius Posts: 73
    The only thing missing from Mordaunt's video is Bobby Moore lifting the World Cup in 1966!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,344
    Roger said:

    I hated everything about that Mordaunt video. It was just awful. The VO (probably Gyles Brandreth) was portentious to the point of being sick making. If you were burying the Queen it might have been suitable but as it is it was old fashioned fuddy duddy pompous nonsense.

    The only saving grace was 'PM4PM' which was cute

    Thats goodbye Shapps Mordaunt and Hunt....
    Aye.

    Dan Frydman
    @danfrydman
    ·
    14m
    Replying to
    @patrickkmaguire
    It’s a Great British triumph of stock video usage.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    DavidL said:

    That is a deeply ordinary video. Having Boris in it was a mistake. Having platitudes and cliches at every turn when her first priority is to actually improve name awareness and distinctiveness is just daft. Really quite disappointed.
    It’s three minutes long, and she doesn’t even appear until the last 20 seconds.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,565

    Aye.

    Dan Frydman
    @danfrydman
    ·
    14m
    Replying to
    @patrickkmaguire
    It’s a Great British triumph of stock video usage.
    It's Mikey Howard isn't it doing VO?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,030
    Roger said:

    I hated everything about that Mordaunt video. It was just awful. The VO (probably Gyles Brandreth) was portentious to the point of being sick making. If you were burying the Queen it might have been suitable but as it is it was old fashioned fuddy duddy pompous nonsense.

    The only saving grace was 'PM4PM' which was cute

    Thats goodbye Shapps Mordaunt and Hunt....
    Mordaunt has a very real prospect of being next PM but Shapps and Hunt are not going anywhere
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    After this morning on BBC I would suggest he is unlikely to feature

    Indeed Mordaunt is the one to watch

    I expect the final three to be Sunak- Mordaunt - Truss

    And final 2 Sunak v Mordaunt

    Membership most likely Mordaunt

    I have made my prediction and think it is not far off
    So, if members have Rishi versus Penny, you think it is Penny who wins.

    It would be interesting to hear your prediction if the members get:

    Penny versus Liz ?

    or Liz versus Rishi ?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,079

    The membership will choose Sunak?

    That's what the collective wisdom of punters think.
    Sunak is favourite at 2/1 on BetFair.
    Mordaunt is coming up fast at 9/2. I'm on her at 6/1 with an early bet at 38/1.
    I think it is a two horse race.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,834

    Good morning one and all! Lovely morning in North Essex; hope all is well with everyone.

    The Cole family celebration of our diamond wedding took place yesterday and there was icing on our cake; Eldest Grandson and his wife told us that it all went according, and there was no reason why it shouldn't, we would be great grandparents early in the New Year!
    Mrs C is thrilled; I'm pretty chuffed too!

    Something really to live for!

    Congratulations OKC! Not too many people these days get to meet their great grandchildren. Nor, indeed, celebrate a diamond wedding anniversary.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,030

    The membership will choose Sunak?

    If it Sunak v Mordaunt I expect Mordaunt will win
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,355
    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING: Penny Mordaunt launches her bid to be leader https://twitter.com/pennymordaunt/status/1546049184373121024

    That's a pretty stirring video and strikes all the right notes for me.

    Bit odd there's no Penny piece to camera at all in it though, although there is a 2-3 second clip of Johnson.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,344

    It's Mikey Howard isn't it doing VO?
    I'd say definitely thespy, not Gyles or Howard.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,565
    Rishi drifting to 3
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Good morning one and all! Lovely morning in North Essex; hope all is well with everyone.

    The Cole family celebration of our diamond wedding took place yesterday and there was icing on our cake; Eldest Grandson and his wife told us that it all went according, and there was no reason why it shouldn't, we would be great grandparents early in the New Year!
    Mrs C is thrilled; I'm pretty chuffed too!

    Something really to live for!

    Congrats, and congrats!
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,539
    @HYUFD I was listening to Peter Hennessy this morning about Boris. He also relating to a conversation with Gillian Shephard after Boris resigned who commented with relief that our constitution held up. There was also comment on fears by Conservatives that Boris might have gone to the Queen to ask for a dissolution and out her in an impossible position. Which actual have a senior constitutional expert and senior Tories who were terrified that Boris was breaking the British Constitution.

    As a traditionalist did this not worry you?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,355
    Roger said:

    I hated everything about that Mordaunt video. It was just awful. The VO (probably Gyles Brandreth) was portentious to the point of being sick making. If you were burying the Queen it might have been suitable but as it is it was old fashioned fuddy duddy pompous nonsense.

    The only saving grace was 'PM4PM' which was cute

    Thats goodbye Shapps Mordaunt and Hunt....
    There we have it. Roger has spoken.

    We can be 100% confident it's an excellent video for the contest.

This discussion has been closed.