Iain Martin @iainmartin1 · 39m Person on Sky News just said he'll be in post until October. Surely Tories will speed up the race? Doubt it will even get to the party membership. Final two or three do a deal, no?
Has Pincher resigned his seat yet? His notorious night out was only 7 (8?) days ago. We've all done some reprehensible things when pissed but few of us have managed to simultaneously leave ourselves open to serious criminal sanction and bring down a government.
Appalling though Pincher is, he didn't in reality bring down the Government... it was Johnson's dishonest response that did.
The Pincher affair was actually perfectly survivable for someone whose instinct isn't to lie, lie and lie again. It's certainly embarrassing that Johnson gave him a second chance after a past sexual misconduct finding against Pincher. But the response is actually fairly clear - "Yes, there was a finding. Yes, I knew. With hindsight, I was naive to give him a second chance, and I apologise."
But Johnson cannot face the short term pain involved in avoiding long term agony - his instinct - ALWAYS - is to lie, and require honest colleagues to lie for him. He is exactly what many people warned Tory MPs he was from the start - a total, unmitigated, unchanging sh1t.
Ultimately he pushed his team too far.
It's incredible it took them this long to snap, but he was no longer a leader offering them things, he was only ever demanding.
Caller on R5L virtually in tears. He has some deep loyalty amongst folk who can't make an argument they haven't read in the Express or Mail. Predictions of a Tory surge may not be as nailed on as many assert.
It doesn't surprise me, there are 2 ladies I work with who you would never think would have anything to do with BJ, polite, gentle, reserved , both are gutted he is going.
Yeah. I think this may lose more votes than it gains. Though most will drift to not voting. Unless Farage comes back.
Just last week the tories were just 2% behind in one poll, despite everything that has happened, I think BJ has a significant personal vote whoch is not recognised on this site. The new PM will have to try and win them over
The 2% Kantar was 16-20th June, not last week. And that's a highly selective reading of the polls. The last 10 opinion polls have been:
Three consideration, sometimes missed, regarding next CP leader:
- how safe is the candidate in their own constituency? - joint tickets could affect the outcome - what size of MP backing does each candidate have with MPs (given that that they have to be in the final two).
Finding it hard to gauge TBH so keeping clear from betting at the moment.
I’d imagine a joint Sunak/Javid ticket could be in play
Sunak was fined for partygate and his behaviour at times when people were looking into his finances and the tax status of his wife has took a lot of the shine off him as a candidate.
Going to October with Boris as PM is idiotic. Thats 3 months of drift and inaction.
We need a plan now for the autumn and winter on energy and cost of living.
2019 went: May 24: Announced intent to resign June 7: Resignation took effect June 10: Nominations opened June 13: First ballot June 20: Last ballot July 23: Result of membership announced
If they did that on a slightly less faffful timetable they could have the last two a couple of weeks from now, and at that point they can already start implementing stuff the final two agree on. Then even if you still need a full month for the membership because the old dears don't know how to use computers and the postal system isn't very good, you're still done before the end of August.
I’d imagine a joint Sunak/Javid ticket could be in play
It would be powerful and I can see Hunt joining it too in exchange for a big post.
Sunak PM, Javid CoE, Hunt Foreign Sec works.
You really think the Tory membership are going to vote for that?
What's the issue with Sunak, he's a Thatcherite leaver & his cameo appearence in partygate was the dampest of damp squibs. He appoints Sunak and Hunt once in post.
Iain Martin @iainmartin1 · 39m Person on Sky News just said he'll be in post until October. Surely Tories will speed up the race? Doubt it will even get to the party membership. Final two or three do a deal, no?
They need to get on with the leadership election and then use the convention of getting the weaker candidate to say something embarrassing so they have to withdraw.
I think it’s highly dangerous leaving him as PM. A full leadership contest could and will take months.
Who is going to serve in the cabinet? Half the positions are vacant.
Fraser Nelson R4 recons short list of 2 by end of next week - out to party members on possibly an accelerated timetable so it’s done well before Autumn.
The party members should have no say in the leadership.
We are a Parliamentary democracy. It is the MPs who choose and who give confidence to a leader - and they need to choose the best person to lead the country. They need have a regard for all their voters not the limited few who are party members.
A tiny group of unrepresentative voters inflicted this twit on us before. They inflicted Corbyn on us. They should never again be allowed to do so.
100%. If the members hadn't been involved we would certainly have avoided Corbyn and quite probably Johnson as well.
Having selected those 2 the members should forfeit any role in choosing future leaders.
We have an electoral system that effectively gives a choice of two PMs. The reality is that our PM is pretty much selected by small numbers Tory & Labour members, many of whom inhabit the extreme edges of the political spectrum.
99.9% of us now have to sit back while a bunch of aged blukips choose the next PM and we are stuck with their choice for the next couple of years.
If all my toast bets had been toast by end 22 bets I would be the richest man on PB. Lesson about greed and impatience there.
Been telling everybody since February that:
1. he would not lead the Conservatives into the next General Election and
2. once you have reached that point, get rid quick and allow his successor to bed in with the voters/go for a snap election in the honeymoon.
As a centrist Party member, lying to Parliament was an unforgivable, bridge-burning sin. No coming back from that. That he continued to think he could casually lie about what he knew when regarding Pincher reinforced that he had to go.
I'm hugely disappointed that he did not grow into the role of Prime Minister. But he was happy to remain the cavorting Prince Hal, fannying about with Falstaff - when the role required him to step up to be Henry V.
I'm also dismayed with the payroll vote who have inflicted the past month on us, when he could and should have ceased to be party leader at the start of June. Nothing in those resignation letters that have poured in during the past 48 hours couldn't have been written back then.
A 70-odd seat majority leaves plenty of scope to clean out the Augean stables, however. Still time for a fresher looking Party to emerge under PM Penny Mordaunt.
The lesson from Trump, Boris, SKS and everybody else is that people don't grow into roles. Forget any clever on the one hand in appearance, on the other hand in reality, shit. They are exactly what they look like on day 1, and indeed for decades before day 1.
She would like to think so. Morduant or Wallace seems more plausible. I wouldn't put it past a hardliner like Barclay making the final two.
It will be a Thatcherite vs. a conservative Cameroon. Truss is in pole position on the right. The other one, who will be the runner up is less certain.
There will surely be at least one woman in the final two, especially after the priapic reign of Boris
So that means Mordaunt or Truss. Hard to choose between them, but I'd say Mordaunt is the slight favourite, she is less sullied than Truss - by assocation - but has kept her head down
Both are quite Thatchery so I reckon you're right, it will be a more emollient figure racing them
Wallace, Zarhawi, Javid, maybe Sunak. One of those three
Zarhawi v Mordaunt?
I'm not sure Zahawi will have made many friends over the last few days. Some might even apply to him the epithet No.10 chucked at Gove yesterday.
Caller on R5L virtually in tears. He has some deep loyalty amongst folk who can't make an argument they haven't read in the Express or Mail. Predictions of a Tory surge may not be as nailed on as many assert.
It doesn't surprise me, there are 2 ladies I work with who you would never think would have anything to do with BJ, polite, gentle, reserved , both are gutted he is going.
Yeah. I think this may lose more votes than it gains. Though most will drift to not voting. Unless Farage comes back.
Just last week the tories were just 2% behind in one poll, despite everything that has happened, I think BJ has a significant personal vote whoch is not recognised on this site. The new PM will have to try and win them over
This is why I was concerned about the Populist option of Johnson forcing an election. I was worried there would be a chance he could pull it off.
What I would say is that there are a lot of voters who are up for grabs now. A new Tory leader might be able to win many of them back, or they might not, or Keir Starmer may establish himself as a PM-in-waiting during a protracted leadership contest.
This is where political punters can win big, by correctly anticipating which politicians can make the political weather and grab the opportunity.
Caller on R5L virtually in tears. He has some deep loyalty amongst folk who can't make an argument they haven't read in the Express or Mail. Predictions of a Tory surge may not be as nailed on as many assert.
It doesn't surprise me, there are 2 ladies I work with who you would never think would have anything to do with BJ, polite, gentle, reserved , both are gutted he is going.
Yeah. I think this may lose more votes than it gains. Though most will drift to not voting. Unless Farage comes back.
Just last week the tories were just 2% behind in one poll, despite everything that has happened, I think BJ has a significant personal vote whoch is not recognised on this site. The new PM will have to try and win them over
Yes, I think you're right. There is some truth to the 'Heineken man' tag. There will be some who liked him who probably won't turn out to vote for a more 'boring' Conservative MP.
Agree: I’ve been saying on here for months that this site massively underestimates his voters’ faith in him: that’s still true. In the end, he lost too many of the other sorts of Tory voter, but without HIS voters they can’t hope for anything like this scale of majority or reach in the country.
Jessica Elgot @jessicaelgot · 35m Very senior Tory source says Johnson cannot go on till autumn. “His behaviour in the last 48 hrs and been reckless and erratic. He cannot be trusted to lead the country until the autumn. God knows what he will do.”
I think it’s highly dangerous leaving him as PM. A full leadership contest could and will take months.
Who is going to serve in the cabinet? Half the positions are vacant.
Fraser Nelson R4 recons short list of 2 by end of next week - out to party members on possibly an accelerated timetable so it’s done well before Autumn.
The party members should have no say in the leadership.
We are a Parliamentary democracy. It is the MPs who choose and who give confidence to a leader - and they need to choose the best person to lead the country. They need have a regard for all their voters not the limited few who are party members.
A tiny group of unrepresentative voters inflicted this twit on us before. They inflicted Corbyn on us. They should never again be allowed to do so.
100%. If the members hadn't been involved we would certainly have avoided Corbyn and quite probably Johnson as well.
Having selected those 2 the members should forfeit any role in choosing future leaders.
We have an electoral system that effectively gives a choice of two PMs. The reality is that our PM is pretty much selected by small numbers Tory & Labour members, many of whom inhabit the extreme edges of the political spectrum.
99.9% of us now have to sit back while a bunch of aged blukips choose the next PM and we are stuck with their choice for the next couple of years.
I’d imagine a joint Sunak/Javid ticket could be in play
Sunak was fined for partygate and his behaviour at times when people were looking into his finances and the tax status of his wife has took a lot of the shine off him as a candidate.
I really see the appeal of Javid either.
They need to get to the next generation IMO. Yes it's a risk. But too many in the Cabinet have been tainted. Sunak could do the PR - about the only thing he's good at. Thatcherite austerity is not what the country wants and if voters are going to be persuaded that belt-tightening is needed and that it will be done fairly then a multi-millionaire banker is the last person to do it.
We need a leader who is willing to speak some hard truths and persuade and lead people through what are going to be tough times.
I’d imagine a joint Sunak/Javid ticket could be in play
It would be powerful and I can see Hunt joining it too in exchange for a big post.
Sunak is hugely overrated IMO.
And deeply unpopular now with the party membership who let us not forget get the final say now on who our next PM will be.
Sunak's only chance is if Tory MPs stitch up a final 2 of Sunak v Hunt but they don't have the numbers, in fact more likely would be Sunak v Steve Baker. The membership would then vote for Steve Baker to be PM
Jessica Elgot @jessicaelgot · 35m Very senior Tory source says Johnson cannot go on till autumn. “His behaviour in the last 48 hrs and been reckless and erratic. He cannot be trusted to lead the country until the autumn. God knows what he will do.”
If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs and blaming it on you, you will be called reckless and erratic.
- Count Javid and Sunak out. Having a rich ex-banker who is fiscally conservative in as PM a when we are facing a cost of living crisis which is about to get worse is not going to cut it.
- Zahawi has proven himself a total c*nt over the past 72 hours so he's out as well.
- Gove has been fatally damaged (if he had a chance) by the briefings from Number 10. Even if it's BJ making them, there's enough belief in what BJ said to make people think twice.
- Truss will be seen as too lightweight especially given both the domestic and foreign concerns (same goes for Mourdaunt). Raab might have been better placed but there are the concerns over his seat so no. Patel probably knows she has little chance.
- Wallace probably the best mainstream bet - solid, dependable, would probably satisfy both RW and BW voters and has had a good Ukraine conflict (awful choice of words but...)
- As a (really) outside bet, I've said McVey before - has good links with both the RW and Brexit sides, and has stood before. I don't think Baker will run but I do think he is making these statements to get someone from that wing to run. That could be Barclay but it may be someone else.
Baker has said he is running but yes Wallace is my preference.
Jessica Elgot @jessicaelgot · 35m Very senior Tory source says Johnson cannot go on till autumn. “His behaviour in the last 48 hrs and been reckless and erratic. He cannot be trusted to lead the country until the autumn. God knows what he will do.”
There are two issues: 1. Boris Johnson's position as Prime Minister is untenable. The idea that he stays on for months does not suddenly change that reality 2. The country is in crisis now. In 3 months it will be in deep shit. The proposal seems to be that we leave the untenable in office doing nothing whilst the Tory party engages in a bunfight for the soul of the party.
It would be fiddling whilst Albion burns. Surely that cannot be anything but disastrous for the Conservative Party.
I think it’s highly dangerous leaving him as PM. A full leadership contest could and will take months.
Who is going to serve in the cabinet? Half the positions are vacant.
Fraser Nelson R4 recons short list of 2 by end of next week - out to party members on possibly an accelerated timetable so it’s done well before Autumn.
The party members should have no say in the leadership.
We are a Parliamentary democracy. It is the MPs who choose and who give confidence to a leader - and they need to choose the best person to lead the country. They need have a regard for all their voters not the limited few who are party members.
A tiny group of unrepresentative voters inflicted this twit on us before. They inflicted Corbyn on us. They should never again be allowed to do so.
100%. If the members hadn't been involved we would certainly have avoided Corbyn and quite probably Johnson as well.
Having selected those 2 the members should forfeit any role in choosing future leaders.
We have an electoral system that effectively gives a choice of two PMs. The reality is that our PM is pretty much selected by small numbers Tory & Labour members, many of whom inhabit the extreme edges of the political spectrum.
99.9% of us now have to sit back while a bunch of aged blukips choose the next PM and we are stuck with their choice for the next couple of years.
You are accusing TSE and I of being "blukips"?
Bang goes your credibility!
Sure. Buy on the wider point, the two of you and HYUFD by virtue of paying 30 quid have about 500 times s much influence per head over who gets to be next PM, as the rest of us have at a GE
200, 000 con memb, 48m voters, ratio 240:1, scaled up because every vote counts in a con leadership contest.
The clear headed correct move right now is for Boris to (checks book) hand over to Raab as interim Prime Minister.
I'm all over that but haven't checked the small print. Is interim leader leader as far as bf is concerned?
There’s
Leader of the Conservative Party- shortly to become vacant
And
Prime Minister
There is no such position as “interim” Prime Minister.
There may be a PM who isn’t leader of the Conservatives and isn’t Boris Johnson, but they’re still “Prime Minister”.
Like Winston Churchill, who became PM in May but Neville Chamberlain remained leader of the Conservative Party until his death in October 1940, as everyone will know who read the leading biography of Churchill by one B Johnson (if he mentioned it).
Three consideration, sometimes missed, regarding next CP leader:
- how safe is the candidate in their own constituency? - joint tickets could affect the outcome - what size of MP backing does each candidate have with MPs (given that that they have to be in the final two).
Finding it hard to gauge TBH so keeping clear from betting at the moment.
Thatcher's majority in Finchley, at the time she was elected Tory leader, was under 4k. Admittedly, that was in opposition, so it was fairly hard to see a scenario where the Conservatives were elected but she wasn't there (although not inconceivable given October 1974 was a very close election). Johnson's majority in 2017 was a shade over 5k.
I think you're making too much of majority in their own constituency. There tends to be a rallying behind the PM in their own constituency and, if they lose, the strong likelihood is that their party has lost badly (a very different case, but like Swinson in 2019). I just don't think it will be persuasive if a candidate is otherwise seen as suitable.
I never believed there would be a snap election under Johnson. I am sorry there won't be a snap election, because it would've been lovely to see the Conservative Party wiped out, a fitting punishment for their sins.
If there's a new leader and they get a bounce in the polls, might they go for an election? It's going to depend on those polls...
He's untrustworthy and will seek to remain, buggering up the country to try and buy himself a favourable legacy in the meantime.
Get rid of him, PCP, or be shown to be utter fools once again.
On Leon's point about history being kinder to him than PB, that is possible, in relation to some big policy matters (others will disagree), but his personal standards will not be treated kindly, and in any case in the moment of being forced out few will be thinking about reflecting on positives
First up, no one these days reads political memoirs. Nor do they any longer have an interest in reading books by sad old white male sexual predators. Appetites have changed. He may get a decent advance but the publishers won't earn out the advance in sales.
Second, history will not be kinder to him on the bigger issues. Leon says this because of his obsession with Brexit, after a Damascene conversion on the way to the ballot box and with all the tedious zealotry that brings. For most of the rest of us it's obvious Brexit is a massive cock-up that is going to take years to sort out properly. The NI protocol is one example of Boris bodging Brexit in a disastrous fashion. He never thought it through properly because he didn't care about it. He was never a Brexiteer. He chose Brexit to become King of the World. Nothing more.
Other big issues? The initial vaccine rollout was a success but on most other counts our handling of covid has been another cock-up, from the ridiculously lax opening (Cheltenham and Bath Half ffs) to the over-reaction the other way with ludicrously over-tight lockdowns and pernicious policing. That Big Brother state then extended into horrendous legislature further restricting our freedoms. Except for himself, obvs.
He is a shit. The vilest prime minister of any of our lifetimes. He deserves a category of worst prime ministers all to himself. The others, however poor, don't deserve to be mentioned in the same breath as this wicked clown.
He dragged down his party. He dragged down this country.
I think it’s highly dangerous leaving him as PM. A full leadership contest could and will take months.
Who is going to serve in the cabinet? Half the positions are vacant.
Fraser Nelson R4 recons short list of 2 by end of next week - out to party members on possibly an accelerated timetable so it’s done well before Autumn.
The party members should have no say in the leadership.
We are a Parliamentary democracy. It is the MPs who choose and who give confidence to a leader - and they need to choose the best person to lead the country. They need have a regard for all their voters not the limited few who are party members.
A tiny group of unrepresentative voters inflicted this twit on us before. They inflicted Corbyn on us. They should never again be allowed to do so.
100%. If the members hadn't been involved we would certainly have avoided Corbyn and quite probably Johnson as well.
Having selected those 2 the members should forfeit any role in choosing future leaders.
We have an electoral system that effectively gives a choice of two PMs. The reality is that our PM is pretty much selected by small numbers Tory & Labour members, many of whom inhabit the extreme edges of the political spectrum.
99.9% of us now have to sit back while a bunch of aged blukips choose the next PM and we are stuck with their choice for the next couple of years.
Caller on R5L virtually in tears. He has some deep loyalty amongst folk who can't make an argument they haven't read in the Express or Mail. Predictions of a Tory surge may not be as nailed on as many assert.
It doesn't surprise me, there are 2 ladies I work with who you would never think would have anything to do with BJ, polite, gentle, reserved , both are gutted he is going.
Yeah. I think this may lose more votes than it gains. Though most will drift to not voting. Unless Farage comes back.
Just last week the tories were just 2% behind in one poll, despite everything that has happened, I think BJ has a significant personal vote whoch is not recognised on this site. The new PM will have to try and win them over
Yes, I think you're right. There is some truth to the 'Heineken man' tag. There will be some who liked him who probably won't turn out to vote for a more 'boring' Conservative MP.
HYUFD still believes that Thatcher would have won in 1992 and he will no doubt be on here saying that Boris would have gone on to win in 2024.
And, of note, Adam Boulton's comment about Boris' "I have a mandate from 14 million voters", that it is pure Trumpian.
It's certainly nonsense.
HYUFD might be right, impossible to say with hypotheticals of course, which is why MPs hesitated until now. However, extending the 3 elections lost as being due to the Thatcher defenestration is the more shaky claim. More probable is they won 4 elections in a row, and time ran out. And the current Tories have also won 4 elections (albeit only 2 with majorities), and so could well lose the next whoever the leader was.
I’d imagine a joint Sunak/Javid ticket could be in play
It would be powerful and I can see Hunt joining it too in exchange for a big post.
Sunak PM, Javid CoE, Hunt Foreign Sec works.
You really think the Tory membership are going to vote for that?
What's the issue with Sunak, he's a Thatcherite leaver & his cameo appearence in partygate was the dampest of damp squibs. He appoints Sunak and Hunt once in post.
Sunak will not get past the membership, he is seen as a tax rising shyster.
As I said, even Steve Baker would now beat Sunak once it got to the membership
Sunak is tainted by partygate and unpopular with the membership. He won’t get it.
I hate to say it but Truss is becoming more and more likely IMHO. Big question on her is MP support - if she got through to the final ballot I think only Wallace and (at a pinch, with a fair campaign) Mordaunt could stop her.
I’d imagine a joint Sunak/Javid ticket could be in play
It would be powerful and I can see Hunt joining it too in exchange for a big post.
Sunak PM, Javid CoE, Hunt Foreign Sec works.
You really think the Tory membership are going to vote for that? They would now vote for Wallace, Mordaunt, Zahawi, Raab, Truss, heck they would even vote for Steve Baker to be next Tory leader and PM over any of those 3
First, the Tory membership will only have the choice of two.
Second, the Tory membership might have no choice, as when Leadsom withdrew against Theresa May.
He's untrustworthy and will seek to remain, buggering up the country to try and buy himself a favourable legacy in the meantime.
Get rid of him, PCP, or be shown to be utter fools once again.
On Leon's point about history being kinder to him than PB, that is possible, in relation to some big policy matters (others will disagree), but his personal standards will not be treated kindly, and in any case in the moment of being forced out few will be thinking about reflecting on positives
First up, no one these days reads political memoirs. Nor do they any longer have an interest in reading books by sad old white male sexual predators. Appetites have changed. He may get a decent advance but the publishers won't earn out the advance in sales.
Second, history will not be kinder to him on the bigger issues. Leon says this because of his obsession with Brexit, after a Damascene conversion on the way to the ballot and with all the tedious zealotry that brings. For most of the rest of us it's obvious Brexit is a massive cock-up that is going to take years to sort out properly. The NI protocol is one example of Boris bodging Brexit in a disastrous fashion. He never thought it through properly because he didn't care about it. He was never a Brexiteer. He chose Brexit to become King of the World. Nothing more.
Other big issues? The initial vaccine rollout was a success but on most other counts our handling of covid has been another cock-up, from the ridiculously lax opening (Cheltenham and Bath Half ffs) to the over-reaction the other way with ludicrously over-tight lockdowns and pernicious policing. That Big Brother state then extended into horrendous legislature further restricting our freedoms. Except for himself, obvs.
He is a shit. The vilest prime minister of any of our lifetimes. He deserves a category of worst prime ministers all to himself. The others, however poor, don't deserve to be mentioned in the same breath as this wicked clown.
He dragged down his party. He dragged down this country.
Yes, this is a big day for the ghost of Lord North
IIRC, government salaries all come with three months’ notice period. So all of those who have resigned, and the new appointees if they end up replaced, will still be getting paid over the summer
How on earth are you entitled to notice if you've resigned ?!
It’s surprisingly common in senior management. Being a minister is also quite unusual, in that you can be fired at any time, with no reason required and irrespective of your performance in the job. Part of the reasoning behind it would be that you’re expected to relocate to London, and many ministers relocate their families to London too.
I think it’s highly dangerous leaving him as PM. A full leadership contest could and will take months.
Who is going to serve in the cabinet? Half the positions are vacant.
Fraser Nelson R4 recons short list of 2 by end of next week - out to party members on possibly an accelerated timetable so it’s done well before Autumn.
The party members should have no say in the leadership.
We are a Parliamentary democracy. It is the MPs who choose and who give confidence to a leader - and they need to choose the best person to lead the country. They need have a regard for all their voters not the limited few who are party members.
A tiny group of unrepresentative voters inflicted this twit on us before. They inflicted Corbyn on us. They should never again be allowed to do so.
100%. If the members hadn't been involved we would certainly have avoided Corbyn and quite probably Johnson as well.
Having selected those 2 the members should forfeit any role in choosing future leaders.
We have an electoral system that effectively gives a choice of two PMs. The reality is that our PM is pretty much selected by small numbers Tory & Labour members, many of whom inhabit the extreme edges of the political spectrum.
99.9% of us now have to sit back while a bunch of aged blukips choose the next PM and we are stuck with their choice for the next couple of years.
You are accusing TSE and I of being "blukips"?
Bang goes your credibility!
Sure. Buy on the wider point, the two of you and HYUFD by virtue of paying 30 quid have about 500 times s much influence per head over who gets to be next PM, as the rest of us have at a GE
200, 000 con memb, 48m voters, ratio 240:1, scaled up because every vote counts in a con leadership contest.
I think it’s highly dangerous leaving him as PM. A full leadership contest could and will take months.
Who is going to serve in the cabinet? Half the positions are vacant.
Fraser Nelson R4 recons short list of 2 by end of next week - out to party members on possibly an accelerated timetable so it’s done well before Autumn.
The party members should have no say in the leadership.
We are a Parliamentary democracy. It is the MPs who choose and who give confidence to a leader - and they need to choose the best person to lead the country. They need have a regard for all their voters not the limited few who are party members.
A tiny group of unrepresentative voters inflicted this twit on us before. They inflicted Corbyn on us. They should never again be allowed to do so.
That, however much I might agree with it, is a matter for each party to decide for themselves.
And I look forward to the Tory party leaders telling their eccentric bunch of members that they aren't fit to make such important decisions...
Leaders - real ones - speak truth to power, and that includes to voters. The elderly Tory membership needs to be told some very hard truths indeed, I'm afraid.
I don't want to come over all @MaxPB but they have to an unacceptable degree put their own interests and obsessions ahead of the good of the party or the country. They are not representative and they are not fit to make a decision which affects all of us.
Giving party members the power to impose a PM on us undermines our Parliamentary democracy and the role which MPs are meant to do. It makes MPs beholden to a tiny group rather than to their constituents as a whole. It is bad for our politics - as the election of Corbyn and Boris have shown us. It has degraded our politics and if Tories had any real care for the country they'd understand this. Labour too should change their rules. Party activists should be nowhere near as important as they have become.
I'm not disputing any of that; I agree with you. I was just pointing out that we can't wave a wand to make it happen.
'Giving party members the power' has it backwards - they already have it. The parties will need to take it away, and might find it a painful process - Labour certainly would; the LibDems also.
That assumes that his replacement will be less unpopular in Scotland. Big assumption.
You might think that Johnson’s -60s favourability ratings in Scotland are exceptional. They’re not. May and Cameron were similarly unpopular.
In fact, there’s a few names on the Tory list that might even plumb new depths.
The efforts of the new custodian of the sewage farm known as the BJ party to pretend that they don’t smell of shit are going to be a hoot.
I think Sturgeon will find Mordaunt a tricky opponent.
Mordaunt could cause some hysteria on Eurotwatter:
A UK minister gives a speech in the United States framing #Brexit as a new Cold War between democracy and statism, saying "now America has a choice to make" about which side it takes.
Three consideration, sometimes missed, regarding next CP leader:
- how safe is the candidate in their own constituency? - joint tickets could affect the outcome - what size of MP backing does each candidate have with MPs (given that that they have to be in the final two).
Finding it hard to gauge TBH so keeping clear from betting at the moment.
The odds are ridiculously short for leading candidates when we don't even know who is actually going to run. But I wouldn't want to steam in laying the favourites on the basis of that.
I think the only bets that make some sense are super long shots (come on Aaron Bell - you know you want to run...). Otherwise best to hold fire. Could easily be another no-hoper to bet against at excellent odds a la Leadsom.
I think it’s highly dangerous leaving him as PM. A full leadership contest could and will take months.
Who is going to serve in the cabinet? Half the positions are vacant.
Fraser Nelson R4 recons short list of 2 by end of next week - out to party members on possibly an accelerated timetable so it’s done well before Autumn.
The party members should have no say in the leadership.
We are a Parliamentary democracy. It is the MPs who choose and who give confidence to a leader - and they need to choose the best person to lead the country. They need have a regard for all their voters not the limited few who are party members.
A tiny group of unrepresentative voters inflicted this twit on us before. They inflicted Corbyn on us. They should never again be allowed to do so.
100%. If the members hadn't been involved we would certainly have avoided Corbyn and quite probably Johnson as well.
Having selected those 2 the members should forfeit any role in choosing future leaders.
We have an electoral system that effectively gives a choice of two PMs. The reality is that our PM is pretty much selected by small numbers Tory & Labour members, many of whom inhabit the extreme edges of the political spectrum.
99.9% of us now have to sit back while a bunch of aged blukips choose the next PM and we are stuck with their choice for the next couple of years.
You are accusing TSE and I of being "blukips"?
Bang goes your credibility!
Sure. Buy on the wider point, the two of you and HYUFD by virtue of paying 30 quid have about 500 times s much influence per head over who gets to be next PM, as the rest of us have at a GE
200, 000 con memb, 48m voters, ratio 240:1, scaled up because every vote counts in a con leadership contest.
Same now applies to Labour members and supporters if a Labour PM resigns or is forced out in office and there is a contested leadership election eg if McConnell or David Miliband had stood v Brown after Blair went in 2007
Iain Martin @iainmartin1 · 39m Person on Sky News just said he'll be in post until October. Surely Tories will speed up the race? Doubt it will even get to the party membership. Final two or three do a deal, no?
Someone will do an Andrea Leadsom, accept a senior role in exchange for standing aside before it gets to the membership.
This is more like when Cameron went. If a clear front runner emerges with the MPs who they are think would get the members’ votes they surely they get anointed? E.g. Wallace.
IIRC, government salaries all come with three months’ notice period. So all of those who have resigned, and the new appointees if they end up replaced, will still be getting paid over the summer
How on earth are you entitled to notice if you've resigned ?!
It’s surprisingly common in senior management. Being a minister is also quite unusual, in that you can be fired at any time, with no reason required and irrespective of your performance in the job. Part of the reasoning behind it would be that you’re expected to relocate to London, and many ministers relocate their families to London too.
Even worse for Football managers too. Clubs that sack or "resign" their Managers can end up paying out tens of millions for the privilege of doing so.
He's untrustworthy and will seek to remain, buggering up the country to try and buy himself a favourable legacy in the meantime.
Get rid of him, PCP, or be shown to be utter fools once again.
On Leon's point about history being kinder to him than PB, that is possible, in relation to some big policy matters (others will disagree), but his personal standards will not be treated kindly, and in any case in the moment of being forced out few will be thinking about reflecting on positives
First up, no one these days reads political memoirs. Nor do they any longer have an interest in reading books by sad old white male sexual predators. Appetites have changed. He may get a decent advance but the publishers won't earn out the advance in sales.
Second, history will not be kinder to him on the bigger issues. Leon says this because of his obsession with Brexit, after a Damascene conversion on the way to the ballot box and with all the tedious zealotry that brings. For most of the rest of us it's obvious Brexit is a massive cock-up that is going to take years to sort out properly. The NI protocol is one example of Boris bodging Brexit in a disastrous fashion. He never thought it through properly because he didn't care about it. He was never a Brexiteer. He chose Brexit to become King of the World. Nothing more.
Other big issues? The initial vaccine rollout was a success but on most other counts our handling of covid has been another cock-up, from the ridiculously lax opening (Cheltenham and Bath Half ffs) to the over-reaction the other way with ludicrously over-tight lockdowns and pernicious policing. That Big Brother state then extended into horrendous legislature further restricting our freedoms. Except for himself, obvs.
He is a shit. The vilest prime minister of any of our lifetimes. He deserves a category of worst prime ministers all to himself. The others, however poor, don't deserve to be mentioned in the same breath as this wicked clown.
He dragged down his party. He dragged down this country.
I said it was possible history would be kinder to him, not that it definitely would. I cannot stand the man, frankly.
He's untrustworthy and will seek to remain, buggering up the country to try and buy himself a favourable legacy in the meantime.
Get rid of him, PCP, or be shown to be utter fools once again.
On Leon's point about history being kinder to him than PB, that is possible, in relation to some big policy matters (others will disagree), but his personal standards will not be treated kindly, and in any case in the moment of being forced out few will be thinking about reflecting on positives
First up, no one these days reads political memoirs. Nor do they any longer have an interest in reading books by sad old white male sexual predators. Appetites have changed. He may get a decent advance but the publishers won't earn out the advance in sales.
Second, history will not be kinder to him on the bigger issues. Leon says this because of his obsession with Brexit, after a Damascene conversion on the way to the ballot box and with all the tedious zealotry that brings. For most of the rest of us it's obvious Brexit is a massive cock-up that is going to take years to sort out properly. The NI protocol is one example of Boris bodging Brexit in a disastrous fashion. He never thought it through properly because he didn't care about it. He was never a Brexiteer. He chose Brexit to become King of the World. Nothing more.
Other big issues? The initial vaccine rollout was a success but on most other counts our handling of covid has been another cock-up, from the ridiculously lax opening (Cheltenham and Bath Half ffs) to the over-reaction the other way with ludicrously over-tight lockdowns and pernicious policing. That Big Brother state then extended into horrendous legislature further restricting our freedoms. Except for himself, obvs.
He is a shit. The vilest prime minister of any of our lifetimes. He deserves a category of worst prime ministers all to himself. The others, however poor, don't deserve to be mentioned in the same breath as this wicked clown.
He dragged down his party. He dragged down this country.
I said "history will be kinder than PB". You are rather proving my point
Morning all! So hes 'orf. He might think he wants to stay until October but once hes resigned as party leader its out of his hands, as soon as the new leader is in place he is gone. All the power drained from his hands the moment he said he was off. If he does as he is told he might be allowed to slither past May by a week or so. He will be gone before conference imo.
I’d imagine a joint Sunak/Javid ticket could be in play
It would be powerful and I can see Hunt joining it too in exchange for a big post.
Sunak PM, Javid CoE, Hunt Foreign Sec works.
You really think the Tory membership are going to vote for that?
What's the issue with Sunak, he's a Thatcherite leaver & his cameo appearence in partygate was the dampest of damp squibs. He appoints Sunak and Hunt once in post.
Sunak will not get past the membership, he is seen as a tax rising shyster.
As I said, even Steve Baker would now beat Sunak once it got to the membership
I’d imagine a joint Sunak/Javid ticket could be in play
It would be powerful and I can see Hunt joining it too in exchange for a big post.
Sunak PM, Javid CoE, Hunt Foreign Sec works.
You really think the Tory membership are going to vote for that?
What's the issue with Sunak, he's a Thatcherite leaver & his cameo appearence in partygate was the dampest of damp squibs. He appoints Sunak and Hunt once in post.
Sunak will not get past the membership, he is seen as a tax rising shyster.
As I said, even Steve Baker would now beat Sunak once it got to the membership
'Even' Steve Baker? I'd have assumed even though he was 'disloyal' you'd be a fan of Baker, a true Brexiteer.
Caller on R5L virtually in tears. He has some deep loyalty amongst folk who can't make an argument they haven't read in the Express or Mail. Predictions of a Tory surge may not be as nailed on as many assert.
It doesn't surprise me, there are 2 ladies I work with who you would never think would have anything to do with BJ, polite, gentle, reserved , both are gutted he is going.
Yeah. I think this may lose more votes than it gains. Though most will drift to not voting. Unless Farage comes back.
Just last week the tories were just 2% behind in one poll, despite everything that has happened, I think BJ has a significant personal vote whoch is not recognised on this site. The new PM will have to try and win them over
Yes, I think you're right. There is some truth to the 'Heineken man' tag. There will be some who liked him who probably won't turn out to vote for a more 'boring' Conservative MP.
HYUFD still believes that Thatcher would have won in 1992 and he will no doubt be on here saying that Boris would have gone on to win in 2024.
And, of note, Adam Boulton's comment about Boris' "I have a mandate from 14 million voters", that it is pure Trumpian.
And looking at the polls, is pure bollocks. He's polling worse than his party.
I think it’s highly dangerous leaving him as PM. A full leadership contest could and will take months.
Who is going to serve in the cabinet? Half the positions are vacant.
Fraser Nelson R4 recons short list of 2 by end of next week - out to party members on possibly an accelerated timetable so it’s done well before Autumn.
The party members should have no say in the leadership.
We are a Parliamentary democracy. It is the MPs who choose and who give confidence to a leader - and they need to choose the best person to lead the country. They need have a regard for all their voters not the limited few who are party members.
A tiny group of unrepresentative voters inflicted this twit on us before. They inflicted Corbyn on us. They should never again be allowed to do so.
100%. If the members hadn't been involved we would certainly have avoided Corbyn and quite probably Johnson as well.
Having selected those 2 the members should forfeit any role in choosing future leaders.
We have an electoral system that effectively gives a choice of two PMs. The reality is that our PM is pretty much selected by small numbers Tory & Labour members, many of whom inhabit the extreme edges of the political spectrum.
99.9% of us now have to sit back while a bunch of aged blukips choose the next PM and we are stuck with their choice for the next couple of years.
You are accusing TSE and I of being "blukips"?
Bang goes your credibility!
Sure. Buy on the wider point, the two of you and HYUFD by virtue of paying 30 quid have about 500 times s much influence per head over who gets to be next PM, as the rest of us have at a GE
200, 000 con memb, 48m voters, ratio 240:1, scaled up because every vote counts in a con leadership contest.
Nothing stopped you getting a vote....
No, because I can afford £25 without really noticing. That makes it worse not better.
I'd like to think any MPs getting an unearned financial bonus from the last few days would give that money to charity. Perhaps one that deals with the victims of sexual abuse.
Morning all! So hes 'orf. He might think he wants to stay until October but once hes resigned as party leader its out of his hands, as soon as the new leader is in place he is gone. All the power drained from his hands the moment he ssid he was off. If he does as he is told he might be allowed to slither past May by a week or so. He will be gone before conference imo.
Psychologically, the job must have lost a lot of its appeal, as of this morning. He's now the lamest of lame ducks, an embarrassment to the office, deserving no loyalty or respect, other than the hushed whispers of the mortuary
I have a hunch, like you, that he will be gone long before "October"
Iain Martin @iainmartin1 · 39m Person on Sky News just said he'll be in post until October. Surely Tories will speed up the race? Doubt it will even get to the party membership. Final two or three do a deal, no?
Someone will do an Andrea Leadsom, accept a senior role in exchange for standing aside before it gets to the membership.
Yep - the best approach has to be to agree Boris can stay - while making sure that what really happens is MPs select the final 2 and they go into a room and sort things out.
IIRC, government salaries all come with three months’ notice period. So all of those who have resigned, and the new appointees if they end up replaced, will still be getting paid over the summer
How on earth are you entitled to notice if you've resigned ?!
It’s surprisingly common in senior management. Being a minister is also quite unusual, in that you can be fired at any time, with no reason required and irrespective of your performance in the job. Part of the reasoning behind it would be that you’re expected to relocate to London, and many ministers relocate their families to London too.
Even worse for Football managers too. Clubs that sack or "resign" their Managers can end up paying out tens of millions for the privilege of doing so.
Football managers at big clubs don't resign though. They head off and agree with the board a payout before leaving by mutual agreement. That isn't remotely what's happened with Donelan. I've a mind to stick in a FOI request about any payoffs she (Shouldn't imo) be getting.
The one minister I think perhaps should be entitled to a "redundancy" payout is remarkably!, Boris Johnson himself. It's trivially a case of constructive dismissal.
He's untrustworthy and will seek to remain, buggering up the country to try and buy himself a favourable legacy in the meantime.
Get rid of him, PCP, or be shown to be utter fools once again.
On Leon's point about history being kinder to him than PB, that is possible, in relation to some big policy matters (others will disagree), but his personal standards will not be treated kindly, and in any case in the moment of being forced out few will be thinking about reflecting on positives
First up, no one these days reads political memoirs. Nor do they any longer have an interest in reading books by sad old white male sexual predators. Appetites have changed. He may get a decent advance but the publishers won't earn out the advance in sales.
Second, history will not be kinder to him on the bigger issues. Leon says this because of his obsession with Brexit, after a Damascene conversion on the way to the ballot box and with all the tedious zealotry that brings. For most of the rest of us it's obvious Brexit is a massive cock-up that is going to take years to sort out properly. The NI protocol is one example of Boris bodging Brexit in a disastrous fashion. He never thought it through properly because he didn't care about it. He was never a Brexiteer. He chose Brexit to become King of the World. Nothing more.
Other big issues? The initial vaccine rollout was a success but on most other counts our handling of covid has been another cock-up, from the ridiculously lax opening (Cheltenham and Bath Half ffs) to the over-reaction the other way with ludicrously over-tight lockdowns and pernicious policing. That Big Brother state then extended into horrendous legislature further restricting our freedoms. Except for himself, obvs.
He is a shit. The vilest prime minister of any of our lifetimes. He deserves a category of worst prime ministers all to himself. The others, however poor, don't deserve to be mentioned in the same breath as this wicked clown.
He dragged down his party. He dragged downthis country.
His memoirs will sell heavily internationally, Brexit is now bedded in as a fact of life, and whether you agree or not the public think the vaccine rollout out went very well. The short hand history of Boris will read “did what he said he’d do on Brexit, and managed Covid well, but was undone by his personal weaknesses”..
The idea of everyone getting their old jobs back and carrying on for months is not going down well on the phone-ins at all.
Nor should it but sheer pragmatism says it might be better than the alternative of a huge reshuffle now and another in a few weeks' time when the new PM takes over.
It’s sad that people will remember Johnson as the clown who clung onto power rather than the visionary who got a particularly shit Brexit done, lied to queen and country, killed an excess of 100,000 people through shit covid policy, lied during lockdown, was abusive about… https://twitter.com/IrvineWelsh/status/1544951974780719104
I’d imagine a joint Sunak/Javid ticket could be in play
It would be powerful and I can see Hunt joining it too in exchange for a big post.
Sunak PM, Javid CoE, Hunt Foreign Sec works.
You really think the Tory membership are going to vote for that?
What's the issue with Sunak, he's a Thatcherite leaver & his cameo appearence in partygate was the dampest of damp squibs. He appoints Sunak and Hunt once in post.
Sunak will not get past the membership, he is seen as a tax rising shyster.
As I said, even Steve Baker would now beat Sunak once it got to the membership
Is it going to get to the membership though?
Yes, Steve Baker and Braverman etc already announced bids so there will be no coronation.
Sunak's only chance is he faces Hunt in the final 2 but that needs over 2/3 of Tory MPs to vote for Sunak or Hunt and that ain't happening.
Indeed ironically Johnson might end up bring the most centrist Tory leader of this decade as Tory members look for more small state, low tax, anti lockdown, hard Brexit, anti Woke, socially conservative successors to succeed him
I don't think the kunlageta's desire to remain on the ice until autumn is going to last the day.
Sky News:
10:14 Cabinet minister: We need new leader 'as soon as practicable' Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng is joining calls for a swift end to Boris Johnson's tenure - rather than staying on until the party conference in October.
He said: "What a depressing state of affairs. So much needless damage caused. We now need a new leader as soon as practicable.
"Someone who can rebuild trust, heal the country, and set out a new, sensible and consistent economic approach to help families."
He added that he will stay in post as the "wheels of government must continue".
A growing number of backbench Conservative MPs are saying that Mr Johnson needs to stand down now - and let some one else take over.
George Freeman, until this morning a minister, was quick out of the gates to say they need "a new Conservative Leader to try and repair the damage and rebuild trust" from Boris Johnson.
Bim Afolami, recently a vice chair of the Conservative Party, agreed.
Ruth Davidson, the former leader of the Conservatives in the Scotland, said: "There's no way he can stay on until October. It's arrant nonsense to think he can. Someone needs to grip this."
IIRC, government salaries all come with three months’ notice period. So all of those who have resigned, and the new appointees if they end up replaced, will still be getting paid over the summer
How on earth are you entitled to notice if you've resigned ?!
It’s surprisingly common in senior management. Being a minister is also quite unusual, in that you can be fired at any time, with no reason required and irrespective of your performance in the job. Part of the reasoning behind it would be that you’re expected to relocate to London, and many ministers relocate their families to London too.
Even worse for Football managers too. Clubs that sack or "resign" their Managers can end up paying out tens of millions for the privilege of doing so.
Oh indeed. a manager on a five year contract, who gets fired after 18 months, gets paid out for the next three-and-a-half years to not be the manager.
IIRC, government salaries all come with three months’ notice period. So all of those who have resigned, and the new appointees if they end up replaced, will still be getting paid over the summer
How on earth are you entitled to notice if you've resigned ?!
It’s surprisingly common in senior management. Being a minister is also quite unusual, in that you can be fired at any time, with no reason required and irrespective of your performance in the job. Part of the reasoning behind it would be that you’re expected to relocate to London, and many ministers relocate their families to London too.
Even worse for Football managers too. Clubs that sack or "resign" their Managers can end up paying out tens of millions for the privilege of doing so.
Football managers at big clubs don't resign though. They head off and agree with the board a payout before leaving by mutual agreement. That isn't remotely what's happened with Donelan. I've a mind to stick in a FOI request about any payoffs she (Shouldn't imo) be getting.
You don't need an FOI request because it has already been explained to you. Whether or not you like the system is immaterial.
The idea of everyone getting their old jobs back and carrying on for months is not going down well on the phone-ins at all.
This is a really important point.
There isn't enough talent on the Conservative benches to have a fresh set of faces. The new cabinet will largely be made up of people who are tainted by association with Johnson: Hunt and May could conceivably be exceptions but they're not exactly fresh faces either. The first whiff of scandal (and there, inevitably, will be one) and the Government will just look like "same old, same old".
Getting rid of Johnson helps the Conservatives through the next few days but not necessarily through the next year.
Completely OT but since there is other news in the world apart from the Clown's antics today.
The French Government have announced they are going to completely renationalise EDF. They always owned 84% of it but now they are pulling the rest back. On paper this runs counter to EU law but I suspect they will find some sort of way around that.
The interesting bit is they are currently 70 billion euros in debt. Which is a hell of a hit even for a national government to take.
IIRC, government salaries all come with three months’ notice period. So all of those who have resigned, and the new appointees if they end up replaced, will still be getting paid over the summer
How on earth are you entitled to notice if you've resigned ?!
It’s surprisingly common in senior management. Being a minister is also quite unusual, in that you can be fired at any time, with no reason required and irrespective of your performance in the job. Part of the reasoning behind it would be that you’re expected to relocate to London, and many ministers relocate their families to London too.
Even worse for Football managers too. Clubs that sack or "resign" their Managers can end up paying out tens of millions for the privilege of doing so.
Football managers at big clubs don't resign though. They head off and agree with the board a payout before leaving by mutual agreement. That isn't remotely what's happened with Donelan. I've a mind to stick in a FOI request about any payoffs she (Shouldn't imo) be getting.
In most jobs there is a contractual notice period. So that if the employee resigns there is a period of time they must work before they can leave, or if they are sacked there is a period they must be compensated for.
But. Being a Cabinet minister isn't a job in the normal sense. And she was appointed the day before. And I would expect a cooling-off period would apply. So 3 months pay for 36 hours in office feels like a massive piss-take.
I’d imagine a joint Sunak/Javid ticket could be in play
It would be powerful and I can see Hunt joining it too in exchange for a big post.
Sunak PM, Javid CoE, Hunt Foreign Sec works.
Sounds good to me, so long as the tax-rising of Sunak is put on Boris and reversed. 👍
In other words, as long as the candidate proves to be totally different as a Prime Minister than they were as a Minister. How did that work out with May? As Home Sec., she was always a cagey, cold fish with no solid achievements beyond survival. And that's exactly what she was at No. 10. He's a former banker who was utterly captured by the Treasury team, and completely bereft of any solutions to the cost of living crisis. What do you think he'd be like as PM at a wild guess?
The idea of everyone getting their old jobs back and carrying on for months is not going down well on the phone-ins at all.
Nor should it but sheer pragmatism says it might be better than the alternative of a huge reshuffle now and another in a few weeks' time when the new PM takes over.
Indeed. But your regular punter doesn't follow that closely. One guy just on berating Labour and the Liberals for voting Boris out. He's vowed never to vote again.
Iain Martin @iainmartin1 · 39m Person on Sky News just said he'll be in post until October. Surely Tories will speed up the race? Doubt it will even get to the party membership. Final two or three do a deal, no?
Someone will do an Andrea Leadsom, accept a senior role in exchange for standing aside before it gets to the membership.
Or we end up with The Hacker Outcome. ("You *do* mean "you"...)
Morning all! So hes 'orf. He might think he wants to stay until October but once hes resigned as party leader its out of his hands, as soon as the new leader is in place he is gone. All the power drained from his hands the moment he ssid he was off. If he does as he is told he might be allowed to slither past May by a week or so. He will be gone before conference imo.
Psychologically, the job must have lost a lot of its appeal, as of this morning. He's now the lamest of lame ducks, an embarrassment to the office, deserving no loyalty or respect, other than the hushed whispers of the mortuary
I have a hunch, like you, that he will be gone long before "October"
October is his last attempt at writing his own obituary as it were. I went on my terms etc. The cat is however now out of the bag and spraying the curtains. They will not allow him another conference. I doubt he will do next weeks PMQs, he will then do the following weeks last one pre recess but it will not be the standing ovation Blair send off he hopes. It will be a spiteful, shameful booting
I’d imagine a joint Sunak/Javid ticket could be in play
It would be powerful and I can see Hunt joining it too in exchange for a big post.
Sunak PM, Javid CoE, Hunt Foreign Sec works.
You really think the Tory membership are going to vote for that?
What's the issue with Sunak, he's a Thatcherite leaver & his cameo appearence in partygate was the dampest of damp squibs. He appoints Sunak and Hunt once in post.
Sunak will not get past the membership, he is seen as a tax rising shyster.
As I said, even Steve Baker would now beat Sunak once it got to the membership
If you were a sensible Tory MP (ok, ok) surveying this wreckage, you'd have to recognise that keeping the Tory membership well away from deciding what happens next has a lot of good arguments in its favour...
I’d imagine a joint Sunak/Javid ticket could be in play
It would be powerful and I can see Hunt joining it too in exchange for a big post.
Health or FCO.
The ticket would lose to the nutter in the members vote though.
It wouldn't get to a members vote - that's the entire point..
Cameron left early as soon as Leadsom quit, this time round the final 2 will do a stitch up and Bozo will be gone. Anything else is completely insane given the current circumstances.
I think it’s highly dangerous leaving him as PM. A full leadership contest could and will take months.
Who is going to serve in the cabinet? Half the positions are vacant.
Fraser Nelson R4 recons short list of 2 by end of next week - out to party members on possibly an accelerated timetable so it’s done well before Autumn.
The party members should have no say in the leadership.
We are a Parliamentary democracy. It is the MPs who choose and who give confidence to a leader - and they need to choose the best person to lead the country. They need have a regard for all their voters not the limited few who are party members.
A tiny group of unrepresentative voters inflicted this twit on us before. They inflicted Corbyn on us. They should never again be allowed to do so.
That, however much I might agree with it, is a matter for each party to decide for themselves.
And I look forward to the Tory party leaders telling their eccentric bunch of members that they aren't fit to make such important decisions...
Leaders - real ones - speak truth to power, and that includes to voters. The elderly Tory membership needs to be told some very hard truths indeed, I'm afraid.
I don't want to come over all @MaxPB but they have to an unacceptable degree put their own interests and obsessions ahead of the good of the party or the country. They are not representative and they are not fit to make a decision which affects all of us.
Giving party members the power to impose a PM on us undermines our Parliamentary democracy and the role which MPs are meant to do. It makes MPs beholden to a tiny group rather than to their constituents as a whole. It is bad for our politics - as the election of Corbyn and Boris have shown us. It has degraded our politics and if Tories had any real care for the country they'd understand this. Labour too should change their rules. Party activists should be nowhere near as important as they have become.
I'm not disputing any of that; I agree with you. I was just pointing out that we can't wave a wand to make it happen.
'Giving party members the power' has it backwards - they already have it. The parties will need to take it away, and might find it a painful process - Labour certainly would; the LibDems also.
It would be the best Clause 4 moment any of the leaders could do. Show that they are willing to take on the activists, value MPs, make Parliament important again and say that they intend listening to voters not obsessives.
He's untrustworthy and will seek to remain, buggering up the country to try and buy himself a favourable legacy in the meantime.
Get rid of him, PCP, or be shown to be utter fools once again.
On Leon's point about history being kinder to him than PB, that is possible, in relation to some big policy matters (others will disagree), but his personal standards will not be treated kindly, and in any case in the moment of being forced out few will be thinking about reflecting on positives
First up, no one these days reads political memoirs. Nor do they any longer have an interest in reading books by sad old white male sexual predators. Appetites have changed. He may get a decent advance but the publishers won't earn out the advance in sales.
Second, history will not be kinder to him on the bigger issues. Leon says this because of his obsession with Brexit, after a Damascene conversion on the way to the ballot box and with all the tedious zealotry that brings. For most of the rest of us it's obvious Brexit is a massive cock-up that is going to take years to sort out properly. The NI protocol is one example of Boris bodging Brexit in a disastrous fashion. He never thought it through properly because he didn't care about it. He was never a Brexiteer. He chose Brexit to become King of the World. Nothing more.
Other big issues? The initial vaccine rollout was a success but on most other counts our handling of covid has been another cock-up, from the ridiculously lax opening (Cheltenham and Bath Half ffs) to the over-reaction the other way with ludicrously over-tight lockdowns and pernicious policing. That Big Brother state then extended into horrendous legislature further restricting our freedoms. Except for himself, obvs.
He is a shit. The vilest prime minister of any of our lifetimes. He deserves a category of worst prime ministers all to himself. The others, however poor, don't deserve to be mentioned in the same breath as this wicked clown.
He dragged down his party. He dragged downthis country.
His memoirs will sell heavily internationally, Brexit is now bedded in as a fact of life, and whether you agree or not the public think the vaccine rollout out went very well. The short hand history of Boris will read “did what he said he’d do on Brexit, and managed Covid well, but was undone by his personal weaknesses”..
Boris's short premiership will be the stuff of innumerable films, dramadocs and the last two series of The Crown. He needs to bang out his memoirs in time to cop some royalties.
The idea of everyone getting their old jobs back and carrying on for months is not going down well on the phone-ins at all.
This is a really important point.
There isn't enough talent on the Conservative benches to have a fresh set of faces. The new cabinet will largely be made up of people who are tainted by association with Johnson: Hunt and May could conceivably be exceptions but they're not exactly fresh faces either. The first whiff of scandal (and there, inevitably, will be one) and the Government will just look like "same old, same old".
Getting rid of Johnson helps the Conservatives through the next few days but not necessarily through the next year.
Bet Hancock is back. He’s more or less got his scandal out of the way and you can’t keep a good Widmerpool down.
The idea of everyone getting their old jobs back and carrying on for months is not going down well on the phone-ins at all.
Nor should it but sheer pragmatism says it might be better than the alternative of a huge reshuffle now and another in a few weeks' time when the new PM takes over.
Indeed. But your regular punter doesn't follow that closely. One guy just on berating Labour and the Liberals for voting Boris out. He's vowed never to vote again.
The fool
It was The Media that brought Boris down, it says on twitter
Completely OT but since there is other news in the world apart from the Clown's antics today.
The French Government have announced they are going to completely renationalise EDF. They always owned 84% of it but now they are pulling the rest back. On paper this runs counter to EU law but I suspect they will find some sort of way around that.
The interesting bit is they are currently 70 billion euros in debt. Which is a hell of a hit even for a national government to take.
At that ownership level I think we’d have that on the balance sheet already anyway. Surely they are the same?
Comments
Iain Martin
@iainmartin1
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39m
Person on Sky News just said he'll be in post until October. Surely Tories will speed up the race? Doubt it will even get to the party membership. Final two or three do a deal, no?
It's incredible it took them this long to snap, but he was no longer a leader offering them things, he was only ever demanding.
6%
9%
10%
6%
8%
3%
11%
8%
8%
7%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2022
- how safe is the candidate in their own constituency?
- joint tickets could affect the outcome
- what size of MP backing does each candidate have with MPs (given that that they have to be in the final two).
Finding it hard to gauge TBH so keeping clear from betting at the moment.
I really don't see the appeal of Javid either.
May 24: Announced intent to resign
June 7: Resignation took effect
June 10: Nominations opened
June 13: First ballot
June 20: Last ballot
July 23: Result of membership announced
If they did that on a slightly less faffful timetable they could have the last two a couple of weeks from now, and at that point they can already start implementing stuff the final two agree on. Then even if you still need a full month for the membership because the old dears don't know how to use computers and the postal system isn't very good, you're still done before the end of August.
Far more likely than loonies you love like JRM getting the vote.
Bang goes your credibility!
What I would say is that there are a lot of voters who are up for grabs now. A new Tory leader might be able to win many of them back, or they might not, or Keir Starmer may establish himself as a PM-in-waiting during a protracted leadership contest.
This is where political punters can win big, by correctly anticipating which politicians can make the political weather and grab the opportunity.
@jessicaelgot
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35m
Very senior Tory source says Johnson cannot go on till autumn. “His behaviour in the last 48 hrs and been reckless and erratic. He cannot be trusted to lead the country until the autumn. God knows what he will do.”
"accusing TSE and me"
We need a leader who is willing to speak some hard truths and persuade and lead people through what are going to be tough times.
Sunak's only chance is if Tory MPs stitch up a final 2 of Sunak v Hunt but they don't have the numbers, in fact more likely would be Sunak v Steve Baker. The membership would then vote for Steve Baker to be PM
https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/04/next-tory-leader-play-offs-sixth-rishi-sunak/
It's only £25 - won't get to vote for the new leader (unlike TSE I note) but done for the gesture....
Might cancel again if it ends up being Dorries vs JRM
1. Boris Johnson's position as Prime Minister is untenable. The idea that he stays on for months does not suddenly change that reality
2. The country is in crisis now. In 3 months it will be in deep shit. The proposal seems to be that we leave the untenable in office doing nothing whilst the Tory party engages in a bunfight for the soul of the party.
It would be fiddling whilst Albion burns. Surely that cannot be anything but disastrous for the Conservative Party.
200, 000 con memb, 48m voters, ratio 240:1, scaled up because every vote counts in a con leadership contest.
I think you're making too much of majority in their own constituency. There tends to be a rallying behind the PM in their own constituency and, if they lose, the strong likelihood is that their party has lost badly (a very different case, but like Swinson in 2019). I just don't think it will be persuasive if a candidate is otherwise seen as suitable.
If there's a new leader and they get a bounce in the polls, might they go for an election? It's going to depend on those polls...
https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/04/next-tory-leader-play-offs-sixth-rishi-sunak/
Second, history will not be kinder to him on the bigger issues. Leon says this because of his obsession with Brexit, after a Damascene conversion on the way to the ballot box and with all the tedious zealotry that brings. For most of the rest of us it's obvious Brexit is a massive cock-up that is going to take years to sort out properly. The NI protocol is one example of Boris bodging Brexit in a disastrous fashion. He never thought it through properly because he didn't care about it. He was never a Brexiteer. He chose Brexit to become King of the World. Nothing more.
Other big issues? The initial vaccine rollout was a success but on most other counts our handling of covid has been another cock-up, from the ridiculously lax opening (Cheltenham and Bath Half ffs) to the over-reaction the other way with ludicrously over-tight lockdowns and pernicious policing. That Big Brother state then extended into horrendous legislature further restricting our freedoms. Except for himself, obvs.
He is a shit. The vilest prime minister of any of our lifetimes. He deserves a category of worst prime ministers all to himself. The others, however poor, don't deserve to be mentioned in the same breath as this wicked clown.
He dragged down his party. He dragged down this country.
HYUFD might be right, impossible to say with hypotheticals of course, which is why MPs hesitated until now. However, extending the 3 elections lost as being due to the Thatcher defenestration is the more shaky claim. More probable is they won 4 elections in a row, and time ran out. And the current Tories have also won 4 elections (albeit only 2 with majorities), and so could well lose the next whoever the leader was.
As I said, even Steve Baker would now beat Sunak once it got to the membership
I hate to say it but Truss is becoming more and more likely IMHO. Big question on her is MP support - if she got through to the final ballot I think only Wallace and (at a pinch, with a fair campaign) Mordaunt could stop her.
Second, the Tory membership might have no choice, as when Leadsom withdrew against Theresa May.
Any polls taken before the last 72 hours are meaningless gibberish now.
I was just pointing out that we can't wave a wand to make it happen.
'Giving party members the power' has it backwards - they already have it.
The parties will need to take it away, and might find it a painful process - Labour certainly would; the LibDems also.
A UK minister gives a speech in the United States framing #Brexit as a new Cold War between democracy and statism, saying "now America has a choice to make" about which side it takes.
https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1471596508491526144
I think the only bets that make some sense are super long shots (come on Aaron Bell - you know you want to run...). Otherwise best to hold fire. Could easily be another no-hoper to bet against at excellent odds a la Leadsom.
So hes 'orf. He might think he wants to stay until October but once hes resigned as party leader its out of his hands, as soon as the new leader is in place he is gone. All the power drained from his hands the moment he said he was off. If he does as he is told he might be allowed to slither past May by a week or so. He will be gone before conference imo.
He's polling worse than his party.
I have a hunch, like you, that he will be gone long before "October"
https://twitter.com/hutch1975/status/1544785045071839232
The one minister I think perhaps should be entitled to a "redundancy" payout is remarkably!, Boris Johnson himself. It's trivially a case of constructive dismissal.
Sorry that your guy turned out to be exactly the kind of c*nt we said he was.
If they do, he will be remembered as the world leader whose early action saved them, if they don't his early decisive action will just be a footnote.
https://twitter.com/IrvineWelsh/status/1544951974780719104
Sunak's only chance is he faces Hunt in the final 2 but that needs over 2/3 of Tory MPs to vote for Sunak or Hunt and that ain't happening.
Indeed ironically Johnson might end up bring the most centrist Tory leader of this decade as Tory members look for more small state, low tax, anti lockdown, hard Brexit, anti Woke, socially conservative successors to succeed him
The ticket would lose to the nutter in the members vote though.
Sky News:
10:14
Cabinet minister: We need new leader 'as soon as practicable'
Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng is joining calls for a swift end to Boris Johnson's tenure - rather than staying on until the party conference in October.
He said: "What a depressing state of affairs. So much needless damage caused. We now need a new leader as soon as practicable.
"Someone who can rebuild trust, heal the country, and set out a new, sensible and consistent economic approach to help families."
He added that he will stay in post as the "wheels of government must continue".
A growing number of backbench Conservative MPs are saying that Mr Johnson needs to stand down now - and let some one else take over.
George Freeman, until this morning a minister, was quick out of the gates to say they need "a new Conservative Leader to try and repair the damage and rebuild trust" from Boris Johnson.
Bim Afolami, recently a vice chair of the Conservative Party, agreed.
Ruth Davidson, the former leader of the Conservatives in the Scotland, said: "There's no way he can stay on until October. It's arrant nonsense to think he can. Someone needs to grip this."
There isn't enough talent on the Conservative benches to have a fresh set of faces. The new cabinet will largely be made up of people who are tainted by association with Johnson: Hunt and May could conceivably be exceptions but they're not exactly fresh faces either. The first whiff of scandal (and there, inevitably, will be one) and the Government will just look like "same old, same old".
Getting rid of Johnson helps the Conservatives through the next few days but not necessarily through the next year.
The French Government have announced they are going to completely renationalise EDF. They always owned 84% of it but now they are pulling the rest back. On paper this runs counter to EU law but I suspect they will find some sort of way around that.
The interesting bit is they are currently 70 billion euros in debt. Which is a hell of a hit even for a national government to take.
But. Being a Cabinet minister isn't a job in the normal sense. And she was appointed the day before. And I would expect a cooling-off period would apply. So 3 months pay for 36 hours in office feels like a massive piss-take.
But your regular punter doesn't follow that closely.
One guy just on berating Labour and the Liberals for voting Boris out.
He's vowed never to vote again.
Leadership declaration?
The cat is however now out of the bag and spraying the curtains. They will not allow him another conference. I doubt he will do next weeks PMQs, he will then do the following weeks last one pre recess but it will not be the standing ovation Blair send off he hopes. It will be a spiteful, shameful booting
Cameron left early as soon as Leadsom quit, this time round the final 2 will do a stitch up and Bozo will be gone. Anything else is completely insane given the current circumstances.
It was The Media that brought Boris down, it says on twitter