I broke the news of the PM resigning on PB!!! You have no idea how satisfied that has made me!
Many moons ago, I was on a BBS when news came in that John Smith had died. There was a lot of joking and untrue stories posted on the BBS, and I just went: "Yeah, right."
Sadly, he had.
Sadly a natural reaction to a shock like that.
I remember going to school to be told that a Year 12 pupil, who was a prefect and RSM of the Cadets in the school, had died. I thought it was a very bad joke, only to then be told no, seriously, he had. He'd taken his parents car keys and crashed it into a tree. 😢
Caller on R5L virtually in tears. He has some deep loyalty amongst folk who can't make an argument they haven't read in the Express or Mail. Predictions of a Tory surge may not be as nailed on as many assert.
She would like to think so. Morduant or Wallace seems more plausible. I wouldn't put it past a hardliner like Barclay making the final two.
It will be a Thatcherite vs. a conservative Cameroon. Truss is in pole position on the right. The other one, who will be the runner up is less certain.
I don't think even the Tories want to replace one egotistical blonde clown with another.
Replacements are in general an overreaction to the flaws of the outgoing leader. Hence it will be someone boring and honest. Hence Wallace.
I think it’s highly dangerous leaving him as PM. A full leadership contest could and will take months.
Who is going to serve in the cabinet? Half the positions are vacant.
Fraser Nelson R4 recons short list of 2 by end of next week - out to party members on possibly an accelerated timetable so it’s done well before Autumn.
The party members should have no say in the leadership.
We are a Parliamentary democracy. It is the MPs who choose and who give confidence to a leader - and they need to choose the best person to lead the country. They need have a regard for all their voters not the limited few who are party members.
A tiny group of unrepresentative voters inflicted this twit on us before. They inflicted Corbyn on us. They should never again be allowed to do so.
That, however much I might agree with it, is a matter for each party to decide for themselves.
And I look forward to the Tory party leaders telling their eccentric bunch of members that they aren't fit to make such important decisions...
I think it’s highly dangerous leaving him as PM. A full leadership contest could and will take months.
Who is going to serve in the cabinet? Half the positions are vacant.
Fraser Nelson R4 recons short list of 2 by end of next week - out to party members on possibly an accelerated timetable so it’s done well before Autumn.
The party members should have no say in the leadership.
We are a Parliamentary democracy. It is the MPs who choose and who give confidence to a leader - and they need to choose the best person to lead the country. They need have a regard for all their voters not the limited few who are party members.
A tiny group of unrepresentative voters inflicted this twit on us before. They inflicted Corbyn on us. They should never again be allowed to do so.
Absolutely correct.
+1 - the only people capable of judging whether a person is fit to be prime minister / party leader are those who work alongside him day by day.
The general public who see them on TV once in a while really shouldn't be allowed anywhere near the process given that they don't have enough real world data to make a decision.
Of course this is different if a country directly elects their leader but we don't....
Caller on R5L virtually in tears. He has some deep loyalty amongst folk who can't make an argument they haven't read in the Express or Mail. Predictions of a Tory surge may not be as nailed on as many assert.
As @noneoftheabove says, there's a decent rump of Boris loyalists still out there.
Its all gotten a bit Game of Thrones now. King Robert "Boris" Baratheon who became King himself after leading a rebellion against the mad old order became a debauched monarch who has now been felled by a "hunting accident".
Who are the players who are jockeying for position now?
Cersei - Truss Littlefinger - Gove Varys - Zahawi Targaryen - May/Hunt Ned Stark - Sunak Sandor Clegane - Patel
incorrect - you included one character with some integrity there.
Great day for Dominic Cummings! It took him a while but once he got his teeth in it was never in doubt. Anyone who could hoodwink the country into Brexit was never going to find it difficult getting rid of his frontman
After Blair said he intended to resign, pending Labour leadership election, Johnson said there was now 'no basis on which to claim the tenancy of Downing Street' and that the PM should 'go at once' 'if he wishes to avoid assassination'.
Has Pincher resigned his seat yet? His notorious night out was only 7 (8?) days ago. We've all done some reprehensible things when pissed but few of us have managed to simultaneously leave ourselves open to serious criminal sanction and bring down a government.
Has Pincher resigned his seat yet? His notorious night out was only 7 (8?) days ago. We've all done some reprehensible things when pissed but few of us have managed to simultaneously leave ourselves open to serious criminal sanction and bring down a government.
Appalling though Pincher is, he didn't in reality bring down the Government... it was Johnson's dishonest response that did.
The Pincher affair was actually perfectly survivable for someone whose instinct isn't to lie, lie and lie again. It's certainly embarrassing that Johnson gave him a second chance after a past sexual misconduct finding against Pincher. But the response is actually fairly clear - "Yes, there was a finding. Yes, I knew. With hindsight, I was naive to give him a second chance, and I apologise."
But Johnson cannot face the short term pain involved in avoiding long term agony - his instinct - ALWAYS - is to lie, and require honest colleagues to lie for him. He is exactly what many people warned Tory MPs he was from the start - a total, unmitigated, unchanging sh1t.
She would like to think so. Morduant or Wallace seems more plausible. I wouldn't put it past a hardliner like Barclay making the final two.
It will be a Thatcherite vs. a conservative Cameroon. Truss is in pole position on the right. The other one, who will be the runner up is less certain.
I don't think even the Tories want to replace one egotistical blonde clown with another.
Replacements are in general an overreaction to the flaws of the outgoing leader. Hence it will be someone boring and honest. Hence Wallace.
You've not been paying attention. Truss navigated the last 7 days with real skill. She want's the job and in my view is likely to get it,
She would like to think so. Morduant or Wallace seems more plausible. I wouldn't put it past a hardliner like Barclay making the final two.
It will be a Thatcherite vs. a conservative Cameroon. Truss is in pole position on the right. The other one, who will be the runner up is less certain.
There will surely be at least one woman in the final two, especially after the priapic reign of Boris
So that means Mordaunt or Truss. Hard to choose between them, but I'd say Mordaunt is the slight favourite, she is less sullied than Truss - by assocation - but has kept her head down
Both are quite Thatchery so I reckon you're right, it will be a more emollient figure racing them
Wallace, Zarhawi, Javid, maybe Sunak. One of those three
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 14m It’s perfectly sensible for Boris to remain in post until the new leader is appointed. No need to add further disruption with an interim PM.
===
It's f*cking nuts imho.
It will end in another disaster of some description.
Nah, he's finished, he's a powerless hollow shell of a man now.
The second Theresa May said she was going to go and the leadership contest began, that was it, her time was over even if she kept the seat warm until her replacement was found.
Once he says he's going he loses all authority. The people who left office can return to it "out of a sense of duty" (though dealing with the Chancellor issue is going to be interesting) and the leadership contest can begin.
She passed Net Zero into law during her “caretaker” period in govt. Boris is going to keep trying to do stuff until the very end using executive power.
I just spoke to one person sad about Boris resigning - my Ukranian wife.
Let’s all hope that, whatever happens in Westminster, the focus on that country isn’t lost.
He still has close to 30% support, 15-20% fairly strong support. They might be quiet on pb but it is not hard to find fans.
I was in that small group - until a day or two ago.
To quote his predecessor - nothing has changed. He is the same as he has ever been, just more people willing to realise it today than a month ago. I say willing, because deep down they all knew.
Caller on R5L virtually in tears. He has some deep loyalty amongst folk who can't make an argument they haven't read in the Express or Mail. Predictions of a Tory surge may not be as nailed on as many assert.
As @noneoftheabove says, there's a decent rump of Boris loyalists still out there.
They will return to Nigel Farage's next party in the near future....
She would like to think so. Morduant or Wallace seems more plausible. I wouldn't put it past a hardliner like Barclay making the final two.
It will be a Thatcherite vs. a conservative Cameroon. Truss is in pole position on the right. The other one, who will be the runner up is less certain.
There will surely be at least one woman in the final two, especially after the priapic reign of Boris
So that means Mordaunt or Truss. Hard to choose between them, but I'd say Mordaunt is the slight favourite, she is less sullied than Truss - by assocation - but has kept her head down
Both are quite Thatchery so I reckon you're right, it will be a more emollient figure racing them
Wallace, Zarhawi, Javid, maybe Sunak. One of those three
Zarhawi v Mordaunt?
Zahawi hasn't got a hope in hell. He is a risible figure. Sunak or Wallace far more likely.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 14m It’s perfectly sensible for Boris to remain in post until the new leader is appointed. No need to add further disruption with an interim PM.
===
It's f*cking nuts imho.
It will end in another disaster of some description.
Nah, he's finished, he's a powerless hollow shell of a man now.
The second Theresa May said she was going to go and the leadership contest began, that was it, her time was over even if she kept the seat warm until her replacement was found.
Once he says he's going he loses all authority. The people who left office can return to it "out of a sense of duty" (though dealing with the Chancellor issue is going to be interesting) and the leadership contest can begin.
She passed Net Zero into law during her “caretaker” period in govt. Boris is going to keep trying to do stuff until the very end using executive power.
Net Zero is something all serious politicians of all parties agree on though, so it was completely uncontroversial, and it was voted through Parliament not done using executive power.
She wanted a legacy, having no achievements to her name. Boris has quite a legacy already.
Apols if this has already been linked to, but a dreadful reminder of the sort of shit prose and baffling, off kilter similes to be expected in the hit-the-jackpot BJ memoirs. I’m a bit puzzled about predictions of its must-read qualities, isn’t a self serving liar just going to produce self serving lies?
I think it’s highly dangerous leaving him as PM. A full leadership contest could and will take months.
Who is going to serve in the cabinet? Half the positions are vacant.
Fraser Nelson R4 recons short list of 2 by end of next week - out to party members on possibly an accelerated timetable so it’s done well before Autumn.
The party members should have no say in the leadership.
We are a Parliamentary democracy. It is the MPs who choose and who give confidence to a leader - and they need to choose the best person to lead the country. They need have a regard for all their voters not the limited few who are party members.
A tiny group of unrepresentative voters inflicted this twit on us before. They inflicted Corbyn on us. They should never again be allowed to do so.
Absolutely correct.
+1 - the only people capable of judging whether a person is fit to be prime minister / party leader are those who work alongside him day by day.
The general public who see them on TV once in a while really shouldn't be allowed anywhere near the process given that they don't have enough real world data to make a decision.
Of course this is different if a country directly elects their leader but we don't....
Though in this context, Johnson won the MPs vote in the nomination rounds, so the MPs cannot escape their guilt.
And of course voting confidence in him just a month ago.
Caller on R5L virtually in tears. He has some deep loyalty amongst folk who can't make an argument they haven't read in the Express or Mail. Predictions of a Tory surge may not be as nailed on as many assert.
It doesn't surprise me, there are 2 ladies I work with who you would never think would have anything to do with BJ, polite, gentle, reserved , both are gutted he is going.
I just spoke to one person sad about Boris resigning - my Ukranian wife.
Let’s all hope that, whatever happens in Westminster, the focus on that country isn’t lost.
He still has close to 30% support, 15-20% fairly strong support. They might be quiet on pb but it is not hard to find fans.
I was in that small group - until a day or two ago.
I think that the final turning point was poor Will Quince set out to tell a pack of lies on Monday about what the PM knew of Pincher's history. It was by no means the only or first time a minister had been sent out to pedal lies but it seems to have been the tipping point when people thought enough.
I think of all the resigners Sajid Javid has come across the best and it should give him quite a boost in the coming process.
Apols if this has already been linked to, but a dreadful reminder of the sort of shit prose and baffling, off kilter similes to be expected in the hit-the-jackpot BJ memoirs. I’m a bit puzzled about predictions of its must-read qualities, isn’t a self serving liar just going to produce self serving lies?
Yepp, already posted. But to be fair, it ought to be reposted on every thread until the wee shit fucks off for good.
(Not yet resigned) ministers and cabinet will stay on with Boris whilst a new leader is sorted. Wallace has basically laid out the boiler plate templte they'll all come out with on twitter after Boris announces his resignation pending a new leader.
You're surely not telling me they will resign, get their redundancy payoff, and then resume office? As if nothing had happened.
I thought the message from Wallace was very clear - due to on-going ministerial approvals and possible emergency approvals a number of ministers could not resign, but pointing this out is a strong indication that they would if they could. Better than Zahawi.
That assumes that his replacement will be less unpopular in Scotland. Big assumption.
You might think that Johnson’s -60s favourability ratings in Scotland are exceptional. They’re not. May and Cameron were similarly unpopular.
In fact, there’s a few names on the Tory list that might even plumb new depths.
The efforts of the new custodian of the sewage farm known as the BJ party to pretend that they don’t smell of shit are going to be a hoot.
I think Sturgeon will find Mordaunt a tricky opponent.
She’s 6/1 and lengthening. How much you got on?
Couple of quid on her for next leader, at not amazing odds. I only ever put low pounds on anything - I am not an experienced bettor. I've got Raab and May as next PM, so the caretaker situation would work for me.
The clear headed correct move right now is for Boris to (checks book) hand over to Raab as interim Prime Minister.
I'm all over that but haven't checked the small print. Is interim leader leader as far as bf is concerned?
Betfair are ambiguous about that.
Smarkets are not - no, they don't.
I expect Betfair will, like controversy over US Presidential elections, interpret their own rules however they please and probably on next permanent leader.
Going to October with Boris as PM is idiotic. Thats 3 months of drift and inaction.
We need a plan now for the autumn and winter on energy and cost of living.
It's 3 months of him giving as many juicy contracts to companies that will reciprocate once he's left office as possible. For a PM who is getting the boot for the reasons that Boris is, staying on as caretaker isn't really suitable.
I think it’s highly dangerous leaving him as PM. A full leadership contest could and will take months.
Who is going to serve in the cabinet? Half the positions are vacant.
Fraser Nelson R4 recons short list of 2 by end of next week - out to party members on possibly an accelerated timetable so it’s done well before Autumn.
The party members should have no say in the leadership.
We are a Parliamentary democracy. It is the MPs who choose and who give confidence to a leader - and they need to choose the best person to lead the country. They need have a regard for all their voters not the limited few who are party members.
A tiny group of unrepresentative voters inflicted this twit on us before. They inflicted Corbyn on us. They should never again be allowed to do so.
Absolutely correct.
+1 - the only people capable of judging whether a person is fit to be prime minister / party leader are those who work alongside him day by day.
The general public who see them on TV once in a while really shouldn't be allowed anywhere near the process given that they don't have enough real world data to make a decision.
Of course this is different if a country directly elects their leader but we don't....
Though in this context, Johnson won the MPs vote in the nomination rounds, so the MPs cannot escape their guilt.
And of course voting confidence in him just a month ago.
Oh I'm not saying the system is perfect but there is no way you should let party members deter what goes on.
I think the best result here is a stitch up - whoever comes second in the MPs vote should wait a while and quietly take one of the big 3 roles or deputy PM and whatever department they want in return for withdrawing.
End result would be Bozo gone by the end of next week...
Going to October with Boris as PM is idiotic. Thats 3 months of drift and inaction.
We need a plan now for the autumn and winter on energy and cost of living.
Agreed. But they can shorten this if they go through the process faster. They really need to get on with it. We want the interregnum to be as short as possible.
Caller on R5L virtually in tears. He has some deep loyalty amongst folk who can't make an argument they haven't read in the Express or Mail. Predictions of a Tory surge may not be as nailed on as many assert.
It doesn't surprise me, there are 2 ladies I work with who you would never think would have anything to do with BJ, polite, gentle, reserved , both are gutted he is going.
Yeah. I think this may lose more votes than it gains. Though most will drift to not voting. Unless Farage comes back.
She would like to think so. Morduant or Wallace seems more plausible. I wouldn't put it past a hardliner like Barclay making the final two.
It will be a Thatcherite vs. a conservative Cameroon. Truss is in pole position on the right. The other one, who will be the runner up is less certain.
I don't think even the Tories want to replace one egotistical blonde clown with another.
Replacements are in general an overreaction to the flaws of the outgoing leader. Hence it will be someone boring and honest. Hence Wallace.
You've not been paying attention. Truss navigated the last 7 days with real skill. She want's the job and in my view is likely to get it,
She’s been on a plane to Bali for one of those days….
In the event of any ambiguity over an announcement, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled. If there is any change to the established ministerial role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair reserves the right to void this market at its absolute discretion.
I expect Betfair will claim that interim is ambiguous and won't pay out on interim.
Anyone expecting Betfair to religiously stick to what the rules say without any controversy has already forgotten the 2020 election market.
She would like to think so. Morduant or Wallace seems more plausible. I wouldn't put it past a hardliner like Barclay making the final two.
It will be a Thatcherite vs. a conservative Cameroon. Truss is in pole position on the right. The other one, who will be the runner up is less certain.
I don't think even the Tories want to replace one egotistical blonde clown with another.
Replacements are in general an overreaction to the flaws of the outgoing leader. Hence it will be someone boring and honest. Hence Wallace.
You've not been paying attention. Truss navigated the last 7 days with real skill. She want's the job and in my view is likely to get it,
She’s been on a plane to Bali for one of those days….
(Not yet resigned) ministers and cabinet will stay on with Boris whilst a new leader is sorted. Wallace has basically laid out the boiler plate templte they'll all come out with on twitter after Boris announces his resignation pending a new leader.
You're surely not telling me they will resign, get their redundancy payoff, and then resume office? As if nothing had happened.
I thought the message from Wallace was very clear - due to on-going ministerial approvals and possible emergency approvals a number of ministers could not resign, but pointing this out is a strong indication that they would if they could. Better than Zahawi.
Wallace is the one guy with more important things in his inbox at the moment, than to join the resigners.
I think it’s highly dangerous leaving him as PM. A full leadership contest could and will take months.
Who is going to serve in the cabinet? Half the positions are vacant.
Fraser Nelson R4 recons short list of 2 by end of next week - out to party members on possibly an accelerated timetable so it’s done well before Autumn.
The party members should have no say in the leadership.
We are a Parliamentary democracy. It is the MPs who choose and who give confidence to a leader - and they need to choose the best person to lead the country. They need have a regard for all their voters not the limited few who are party members.
A tiny group of unrepresentative voters inflicted this twit on us before. They inflicted Corbyn on us. They should never again be allowed to do so.
100%. If the members hadn't been involved we would certainly have avoided Corbyn and quite probably Johnson as well.
Having selected those 2 the members should forfeit any role in choosing future leaders.
We have an electoral system that effectively gives a choice of two PMs. The reality is that our PM is pretty much selected by small numbers Tory & Labour members, many of whom inhabit the extreme edges of the political spectrum.
99.9% of us now have to sit back while a bunch of aged blukips choose the next PM and we are stuck with their choice for the next couple of years.
I just spoke to one person sad about Boris resigning - my Ukranian wife.
Let’s all hope that, whatever happens in Westminster, the focus on that country isn’t lost.
He still has close to 30% support, 15-20% fairly strong support. They might be quiet on pb but it is not hard to find fans.
I was in that small group - until a day or two ago.
I think that the final turning point was poor Will Quince set out to tell a pack of lies on Monday about what the PM knew of Pincher's history. It was by no means the only or first time a minister had been sent out to pedal lies but it seems to have been the tipping point when people thought enough.
I think of all the resigners Sajid Javid has come across the best and it should give him quite a boost in the coming process.
Yes, respect to the Saj, who in both his resignations has demonstrated that he has principles.
She would like to think so. Morduant or Wallace seems more plausible. I wouldn't put it past a hardliner like Barclay making the final two.
It will be a Thatcherite vs. a conservative Cameroon. Truss is in pole position on the right. The other one, who will be the runner up is less certain.
I don't think even the Tories want to replace one egotistical blonde clown with another.
Replacements are in general an overreaction to the flaws of the outgoing leader. Hence it will be someone boring and honest. Hence Wallace.
You've not been paying attention. Truss navigated the last 7 days with real skill. She want's the job and in my view is likely to get it,
She’s been on a plane to Bali for one of those days….
The clear headed correct move right now is for Boris to (checks book) hand over to Raab as interim Prime Minister.
The bookmakers are now making clear that interim doesn't count.
Wish I knew that before I bet on Raab.
We do not have an interim PM. We have a PM. If Johnson has to resign as PM then the Queen appoints a new PM.
We have an unwritten constitution. If the Queen says we have an interim PM, then we have an interim PM, whether we have had one before or not.
I think it unlikely that the Queen will say we have an interim PM, so how do you define interim when there's no such position in the UK constitution? We'll de facto have an interim PM, but not de jure.
She would like to think so. Morduant or Wallace seems more plausible. I wouldn't put it past a hardliner like Barclay making the final two.
It will be a Thatcherite vs. a conservative Cameroon. Truss is in pole position on the right. The other one, who will be the runner up is less certain.
I don't think even the Tories want to replace one egotistical blonde clown with another.
Replacements are in general an overreaction to the flaws of the outgoing leader. Hence it will be someone boring and honest. Hence Wallace.
You've not been paying attention. Truss navigated the last 7 days with real skill. She want's the job and in my view is likely to get it,
She’s been on a plane to Bali for one of those days….
I think it’s highly dangerous leaving him as PM. A full leadership contest could and will take months.
Who is going to serve in the cabinet? Half the positions are vacant.
Fraser Nelson R4 recons short list of 2 by end of next week - out to party members on possibly an accelerated timetable so it’s done well before Autumn.
Mmm. Decide in haste. The Tory Party needs to decide what it is for. They are desperate not to have that debate.
Indeed. The problem is that the most prominent are amongst the least suited to the job. The outlook for the Conservative party seems grim at best. They will most likely be punished for the Johnson fiasco, but the question is now how they can avoid a strategic disaster, even a total existence failure. Relying on vacuous slogans is what has got the Tories into their current mess, they need not just the PR appearance of gravitas, but actual red meat, Ben Wallace aside, I dont see that is in large supply in the (ex) cabinet. It isn´t Truss, or Raab or Baker or Sunak or any of the others whose ego is bigger than their abilities. Gove has already recognised that he is too personally too divisive, but could do a Portillo and emerge as a Willie Whitelaw figure. Javid is still in the frame with perhaps a better story than either Sunak or Zahawi, then in the "Johnson exiles" there is maybe Tom Tugendhat or of course Jeremy Hunt (though he seems tired and past his sell-by date). Suella Braverman is out early, but that reflects her weakness, not her likely leadership potential.
The truth is that none of these people are actually particularly impressive. After the chaotic charisma of Boris Johnson, almost all will struggle. In the end even Conservatives now recognise that they need a period in opposition to rediscover their mojo. I would be watching Gove carefully for signals as to what kind of Tory party emerges from the wreck.
I think it’s highly dangerous leaving him as PM. A full leadership contest could and will take months.
Who is going to serve in the cabinet? Half the positions are vacant.
Fraser Nelson R4 recons short list of 2 by end of next week - out to party members on possibly an accelerated timetable so it’s done well before Autumn.
The party members should have no say in the leadership.
We are a Parliamentary democracy. It is the MPs who choose and who give confidence to a leader - and they need to choose the best person to lead the country. They need have a regard for all their voters not the limited few who are party members.
A tiny group of unrepresentative voters inflicted this twit on us before. They inflicted Corbyn on us. They should never again be allowed to do so.
That, however much I might agree with it, is a matter for each party to decide for themselves.
And I look forward to the Tory party leaders telling their eccentric bunch of members that they aren't fit to make such important decisions...
Leaders - real ones - speak truth to power, and that includes to voters. The elderly Tory membership needs to be told some very hard truths indeed, I'm afraid.
I don't want to come over all @MaxPB but they have to an unacceptable degree put their own interests and obsessions ahead of the good of the party or the country. They are not representative and they are not fit to make a decision which affects all of us.
Giving party members the power to impose a PM on us undermines our Parliamentary democracy and the role which MPs are meant to do. It makes MPs beholden to a tiny group rather than to their constituents as a whole. It is bad for our politics - as the election of Corbyn and Boris have shown us. It has degraded our politics and if Tories had any real care for the country they'd understand this. Labour too should change their rules. Party activists should be nowhere near as important as they have become.
Caller on R5L virtually in tears. He has some deep loyalty amongst folk who can't make an argument they haven't read in the Express or Mail. Predictions of a Tory surge may not be as nailed on as many assert.
It doesn't surprise me, there are 2 ladies I work with who you would never think would have anything to do with BJ, polite, gentle, reserved , both are gutted he is going.
Yeah. I think this may lose more votes than it gains. Though most will drift to not voting. Unless Farage comes back.
Just last week the tories were just 2% behind in one poll, despite everything that has happened, I think BJ has a significant personal vote whoch is not recognised on this site. The new PM will have to try and win them over
IIRC, government salaries all come with three months’ notice period. So all of those who have resigned, and the new appointees if they end up replaced, will still be getting paid over the summer
The clear headed correct move right now is for Boris to (checks book) hand over to Raab as interim Prime Minister.
The bookmakers are now making clear that interim doesn't count.
Wish I knew that before I bet on Raab.
We do not have an interim PM. We have a PM. If Johnson has to resign as PM then the Queen appoints a new PM.
We have an unwritten constitution. If the Queen says we have an interim PM, then we have an interim PM, whether we have had one before or not.
I think it unlikely that the Queen will say we have an interim PM, so how do you define interim when there's no such position in the UK constitution? We'll de facto have an interim PM, but not de jure.
You define interim by it being said they're interim, that's all you need. Parties have been led by interim leaders before, the concept isn't original. If someone is called interim PM then they are interim PM surely.
Our unwritten constitution evolves. The term PM was an informal term for the First Lord of the Treasury for most of the time PM has existed - adding interim to the title is entirely possible, even if unprecedented.
Caller on R5L virtually in tears. He has some deep loyalty amongst folk who can't make an argument they haven't read in the Express or Mail. Predictions of a Tory surge may not be as nailed on as many assert.
It doesn't surprise me, there are 2 ladies I work with who you would never think would have anything to do with BJ, polite, gentle, reserved , both are gutted he is going.
Yeah. I think this may lose more votes than it gains. Though most will drift to not voting. Unless Farage comes back.
Just last week the tories were just 2% behind in one poll, despite everything that has happened, I think BJ has a significant personal vote whoch is not recognised on this site. The new PM will have to try and win them over
Yes, I think you're right. There is some truth to the 'Heineken man' tag. There will be some who liked him who probably won't turn out to vote for a more 'boring' Conservative MP.
IIRC, government salaries all come with three months’ notice period. So all of those who have resigned, and the new appointees if they end up replaced, will still be getting paid over the summer
How on earth are you entitled to notice if you've resigned ?!
Going to October with Boris as PM is idiotic. Thats 3 months of drift and inaction.
We need a plan now for the autumn and winter on energy and cost of living.
Agreed. But they can shorten this if they go through the process faster. They really need to get on with it. We want the interregnum to be as short as possible.
It’s blindingly obvious that giving BJ the bullet asap would be a small act of decisive pragmatism that might gain back a teeny bit of credit with voters. The recent Tory track record suggests this isn’t a done deal however.
If all my toast bets had been toast by end 22 bets I would be the richest man on PB. Lesson about greed and impatience there.
Been telling everybody since February that:
1. he would not lead the Conservatives into the next General Election and
2. once you have reached that point, get rid quick and allow his successor to bed in with the voters/go for a snap election in the honeymoon.
As a centrist Party member, lying to Parliament was an unforgivable, bridge-burning sin. No coming back from that. That he continued to think he could casually lie about what he knew when regarding Pincher reinforced that he had to go.
I'm hugely disappointed that he did not grow into the role of Prime Minister. But he was happy to remain the cavorting Prince Hal, fannying about with Falstaff - when the role required him to step up to be Henry V.
I'm also dismayed with the payroll vote who have inflicted the past month on us, when he could and should have ceased to be party leader at the start of June. Nothing in those resignation letters that have poured in during the past 48 hours couldn't have been written back then.
A 70-odd seat majority leaves plenty of scope to clean out the Augean stables, however. Still time for a fresher looking Party to emerge under PM Penny Mordaunt.
Caller on R5L virtually in tears. He has some deep loyalty amongst folk who can't make an argument they haven't read in the Express or Mail. Predictions of a Tory surge may not be as nailed on as many assert.
It doesn't surprise me, there are 2 ladies I work with who you would never think would have anything to do with BJ, polite, gentle, reserved , both are gutted he is going.
Yeah. I think this may lose more votes than it gains. Though most will drift to not voting. Unless Farage comes back.
Just last week the tories were just 2% behind in one poll, despite everything that has happened, I think BJ has a significant personal vote whoch is not recognised on this site. The new PM will have to try and win them over
Yes, I think you're right. There is some truth to the 'Heineken man' tag. There will be some who liked him who probably won't turn out to vote for a more 'boring' Conservative MP.
HYUFD still believes that Thatcher would have won in 1992 and he will no doubt be on here saying that Boris would have gone on to win in 2024.
And, of note, Adam Boulton's comment about Boris' "I have a mandate from 14 million voters", that it is pure Trumpian.
He's untrustworthy and will seek to remain, buggering up the country to try and buy himself a favourable legacy in the meantime.
Get rid of him, PCP, or be shown to be utter fools once again.
This is what comes from him not thinking more than 5 minutes ahead. The rebels would have let him remain on had he accepted the obvious once the resignations piled in yesterday. But making threats about a GE, insulting them, and talking nonsense about personal mandates, he has pissed them off - he might still get to stay on, but many others will now push for humiliation.
On Leon's point about history being kinder to him than PB, that is possible, in relation to some big policy matters (others will disagree), but his personal standards will not be treated kindly, and in any case in the moment of being forced out few will be thinking about reflecting on positives
- Count Javid and Sunak out. Having a rich ex-banker who is fiscally conservative in as PM a when we are facing a cost of living crisis which is about to get worse is not going to cut it.
- Zahawi has proven himself a total c*nt over the past 72 hours so he's out as well.
- Gove has been fatally damaged (if he had a chance) by the briefings from Number 10. Even if it's BJ making them, there's enough belief in what BJ said to make people think twice.
- Truss will be seen as too lightweight especially given both the domestic and foreign concerns (same goes for Mourdaunt). Raab might have been better placed but there are the concerns over his seat so no. Patel probably knows she has little chance.
- Wallace probably the best mainstream bet - solid, dependable, would probably satisfy both RW and BW voters and has had a good Ukraine conflict (awful choice of words but...)
- As a (really) outside bet, I've said McVey before - has good links with both the RW and Brexit sides, and has stood before. I don't think Baker will run but I do think he is making these statements to get someone from that wing to run. That could be Barclay but it may be someone else.
I’d imagine a joint Sunak/Javid ticket could be in play
It would be powerful and I can see Hunt joining it too in exchange for a big post.
Sunak PM, Javid CoE, Hunt Foreign Sec works.
You really think the Tory membership are going to vote for that? They would now vote for Wallace, Mordaunt, Zahawi, Raab, Truss, heck they would even vote for Steve Baker to be next Tory leader and PM over any of those 3
Urgent question To ask the Minister for the Cabinet Office if he will make a statement on the functioning of Government - Angela Rayner
Urgent question To ask the Home Secretary to make a statement on the national security implications, following the Salisbury attack, of the then Foreign Secretary’s private meeting with Alexander Lebedev, a former KGB officer - Yvette Cooper
Comments
oh God. Oh no."
I remember going to school to be told that a Year 12 pupil, who was a prefect and RSM of the Cadets in the school, had died. I thought it was a very bad joke, only to then be told no, seriously, he had. He'd taken his parents car keys and crashed it into a tree. 😢
My decision to rejoin the Tory party in January to vote in a Tory leadership election in 2022 makes me a seer.
https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1544964900279164928
He has some deep loyalty amongst folk who can't make an argument they haven't read in the Express or Mail.
Predictions of a Tory surge may not be as nailed on as many assert.
Replacements are in general an overreaction to the flaws of the outgoing leader. Hence it will be someone boring and honest. Hence Wallace.
“One thing to be said for the Tories, though - they're better at removing at leaders who fail to take sex pests seriously than the SNP”
And I look forward to the Tory party leaders telling their eccentric bunch of members that they aren't fit to make such important decisions...
The general public who see them on TV once in a while really shouldn't be allowed anywhere near the process given that they don't have enough real world data to make a decision.
Of course this is different if a country directly elects their leader but we don't....
Now at 12.
Get in my son.
Didn't top up yday, sadly.
https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/1544963185098252294
Well obviously too in love with himself but also with a soundbite.
The Pincher affair was actually perfectly survivable for someone whose instinct isn't to lie, lie and lie again. It's certainly embarrassing that Johnson gave him a second chance after a past sexual misconduct finding against Pincher. But the response is actually fairly clear - "Yes, there was a finding. Yes, I knew. With hindsight, I was naive to give him a second chance, and I apologise."
But Johnson cannot face the short term pain involved in avoiding long term agony - his instinct - ALWAYS - is to lie, and require honest colleagues to lie for him. He is exactly what many people warned Tory MPs he was from the start - a total, unmitigated, unchanging sh1t.
He ought to be escorted off the premises by security and reassured that they will carefully box up his personal possessions.
(from yesterday)
Mordaunt 7 (5)
Sunak 7 (7.5)
Wallace 9 (nc)
Truss 10 (9.6)
Javid 10 (10.5)
Zahawi 11 (12)
Hunt 13 (13.5)
Tugendhat 16.5 (15)
Eustice 20 (21)
Gove 26 (23)
Raab 30 (40)
Baker 41 (?)
Braverman 51 (44)
55 bar
https://twitter.com/NSE_Latchmere/status/1544961287767162880
So that means Mordaunt or Truss. Hard to choose between them, but I'd say Mordaunt is the slight favourite, she is less sullied than Truss - by assocation - but has kept her head down
Both are quite Thatchery so I reckon you're right, it will be a more emollient figure racing them
Wallace, Zarhawi, Javid, maybe Sunak. One of those three
Zarhawi v Mordaunt?
She wanted a legacy, having no achievements to her name. Boris has quite a legacy already.
Wish I knew that before I bet on Raab.
And of course voting confidence in him just a month ago.
We need a plan now for the autumn and winter on energy and cost of living.
[Gerry Adams voice] Boris hasn't gone away, you know!
I think of all the resigners Sajid Javid has come across the best and it should give him quite a boost in the coming process.
Other Bookies will settle differently.
Smarkets are not - no, they don't.
I expect Betfair will, like controversy over US Presidential elections, interpret their own rules however they please and probably on next permanent leader.
I think the best result here is a stitch up - whoever comes second in the MPs vote should wait a while and quietly take one of the big 3 roles or deputy PM and whatever department they want in return for withdrawing.
End result would be Bozo gone by the end of next week...
I think this may lose more votes than it gains.
Though most will drift to not voting. Unless Farage comes back.
I expect Betfair will claim that interim is ambiguous and won't pay out on interim.
Anyone expecting Betfair to religiously stick to what the rules say without any controversy has already forgotten the 2020 election market.
And I still don't trust him.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/elon-musk-grimes-twins-last-year-neuralink-shivon-zilis-children-tesla-b1010724.html
Having selected those 2 the members should forfeit any role in choosing future leaders.
We have an electoral system that effectively gives a choice of two PMs. The reality is that our PM is pretty much selected by small numbers Tory & Labour members, many of whom inhabit the extreme edges of the political spectrum.
99.9% of us now have to sit back while a bunch of aged blukips choose the next PM and we are stuck with their choice for the next couple of years.
Kerching!
Supply is all the rage in Education.
Never change TSE
Leader of the Conservative Party- shortly to become vacant
And
Prime Minister
There is no such position as “interim” Prime Minister.
There may be a PM who isn’t leader of the Conservatives and isn’t Boris Johnson, but they’re still “Prime Minister”.
Darned awful of him to schedule it for that time.
The truth is that none of these people are actually particularly impressive. After the chaotic charisma of Boris Johnson, almost all will struggle. In the end even Conservatives now recognise that they need a period in opposition to rediscover their mojo. I would be watching Gove carefully for signals as to what kind of Tory party emerges from the wreck.
I don't want to come over all @MaxPB but they have to an unacceptable degree put their own interests and obsessions ahead of the good of the party or the country. They are not representative and they are not fit to make a decision which affects all of us.
Giving party members the power to impose a PM on us undermines our Parliamentary democracy and the role which MPs are meant to do. It makes MPs beholden to a tiny group rather than to their constituents as a whole. It is bad for our politics - as the election of Corbyn and Boris have shown us. It has degraded our politics and if Tories had any real care for the country they'd understand this. Labour too should change their rules. Party activists should be nowhere near as important as they have become.
Javid to be given CoE.
The brutal truth is Javid is not a good enough public speaker to be party leader.
Our unwritten constitution evolves. The term PM was an informal term for the First Lord of the Treasury for most of the time PM has existed - adding interim to the title is entirely possible, even if unprecedented.
@PippaCrerar
·
9m
Worth saying the decision to stay on as caretaker is not in his hands, as timetable will be decided by 1922 executive.
1. he would not lead the Conservatives into the next General Election and
2. once you have reached that point, get rid quick and allow his successor to bed in with the voters/go for a snap election in the honeymoon.
As a centrist Party member, lying to Parliament was an unforgivable, bridge-burning sin. No coming back from that. That he continued to think he could casually lie about what he knew when regarding Pincher reinforced that he had to go.
I'm hugely disappointed that he did not grow into the role of Prime Minister. But he was happy to remain the cavorting Prince Hal, fannying about with Falstaff - when the role required him to step up to be Henry V.
I'm also dismayed with the payroll vote who have inflicted the past month on us, when he could and should have ceased to be party leader at the start of June. Nothing in those resignation letters that have poured in during the past 48 hours couldn't have been written back then.
A 70-odd seat majority leaves plenty of scope to clean out the Augean stables, however. Still time for a fresher looking Party to emerge under PM Penny Mordaunt.
And, of note, Adam Boulton's comment about Boris' "I have a mandate from 14 million voters", that it is pure Trumpian.
On Leon's point about history being kinder to him than PB, that is possible, in relation to some big policy matters (others will disagree), but his personal standards will not be treated kindly, and in any case in the moment of being forced out few will be thinking about reflecting on positives
- Count Javid and Sunak out. Having a rich ex-banker who is fiscally conservative in as PM a when we are facing a cost of living crisis which is about to get worse is not going to cut it.
- Zahawi has proven himself a total c*nt over the past 72 hours so he's out as well.
- Gove has been fatally damaged (if he had a chance) by the briefings from Number 10. Even if it's BJ making them, there's enough belief in what BJ said to make people think twice.
- Truss will be seen as too lightweight especially given both the domestic and foreign concerns (same goes for Mourdaunt). Raab might have been better placed but there are the concerns over his seat so no. Patel probably knows she has little chance.
- Wallace probably the best mainstream bet - solid, dependable, would probably satisfy both RW and BW voters and has had a good Ukraine conflict (awful choice of words but...)
- As a (really) outside bet, I've said McVey before - has good links with both the RW and Brexit sides, and has stood before. I don't think Baker will run but I do think he is making these statements to get someone from that wing to run. That could be Barclay but it may be someone else.