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Game over, man – politicalbetting.com

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  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Scott_xP said:

    **Nadhim Zahawi** is in the delegation of cabinet ministers about to tell the prime minister to go, I'm told
    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1544705556262313984


    HaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHa

    Truth is stranger than fiction.

    I knew we were watching some sort of wacky political theatre production penned by a deranged playwright when Huw Merriman sent in his letter of no confidence while interviewing the prime minister in the committee. Now this.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    This is absolutely astonishing . Never seen anything like this in my life .
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,539
    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1544706216789786628

    PM is not denying he said “all the sex pests are supporting me”. This is painful
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Bryant on fire
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,221

    In theory could the cabinet/party immediately support a different person and get to the Queen first? So she sacks BJ ?
    If that happens I'll become a Monarchist for the rest of my life but the prorogation crisis shows she'll do whatever her PM tells her to do.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,709
    For God's sake end this committee meeting and send him back to No 10 to meet the Men in Suits for the final ending.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,910
    What is going on
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110

    Serious question, where would you put peace time Churchill in that list?
    Sorry, yes, =5.

    “Moderately consequential”.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,119
    MISTY said:

    Can Johnson unilaterally call a general election?

    Wouldn't such a call need to be ratified by parliament?

    General elections are called by the sovereign on the advice of her ministers, unless five years have elapsed since a new Parliament met for the first time since the last general election.

    We do not yet know if the Queen will apply the Lascelles principles to reject a request for a GE, but we all have opinions on the question.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,539
    nico679 said:

    This is absolutely astonishing . Never seen anything like this in my life .

    A lot of people are going to sell a lot of books writing this up.

    Not Johnson. He won't sell shit.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,221
    IshmaelZ said:

    Bryant on fire

    I will never call him Reverend Underpants again.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,130

    Well shit in a bag and punch it
    I called him a 'slippery eel' earlier.....

    It looks like I was flattering him.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,709

    It is truly the most insane plot thread so far.

    Tim Shipman did point this out on twitter yesterday when everyone was saying Zahawi is mad.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    boulay said:

    Am I being stupid to assume that if Boris decided to call a snap election to try and cling on, Labour could quickly go for a VoNC in parliament, Boris would lose and then the Queen has to call someone to try and form a gov.

    Surely that would be neither Boris nor SKS due to numbers and therefore would have to be a Tory anyway.

    Point being that calling an election doesn’t help him?

    Not stupid, but no.
    The Queen - under advisement - would not let Boris exercise what presents as an unsupported election.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724

    In theory could the cabinet/party immediately support a different person and get to the Queen first? So she sacks BJ ?
    Yes. The PM is the person who commands a majority in the House. That’s the old Tory system - the Cabinet decides and let’s the Queen know.

    Unprecedented for the PM to need sacking rather than resign though.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,288
    "He was facing a lot of public pressure..."

    "He resigned because you lied to him."
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,848

    Eden and Cameron have more in common.
    Eden was a v successful FS and effectively Deputy PM for some years.

    They are both near bottom though because of disastrous judgements.

    Post war, you’d want to suggest something like;

    1. Thatcher
    2. Attlee
    3. Blair
    4. MacMillan
    5. Wilson / Heath / Major
    6. Brown / Callaghan / May
    7. Cameron / Eden
    8. Johnson

    I have not bothered to rank ADH.

    Hmmm:

    The measure of a PM is performing well in difficult times. Blair had a golden legacy that flatters his performance. (Macmillan is flattered for the same reasons.) Eden was much worse than Cameron, and I would posit Johnson.

    PMs that had really difficult problems to solve and performed well:

    Thatcher (numerous)
    Major (the 1992 recession, Northern Ireland)
    Attlee (post war reconstruction)
    Cameron (GFC fallout)

    And I think you have to say that Johnson performed no worse than peers (and in some ways better) over covid, and he did (sadly via lying) actually get Brexit enacted.

  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,838

    What, the ONS?
    Seriously?

    The ONS survey has been running for two years now, and is the gold standard for surveillance. The people in the ONS had and have nothing to do with decision-making for restrictions or lack of them.

    And yes, we know restrictions were unpleasant. Rampant covid with minimal immunity around was even more unpleasant, as was its effects. No-one's seriously considering reintroducing these measures, because the effect of our immunity colossally reduces the impacts of covid.

    Whilst 13,400 children lost a parent to covid before the immunity had been built up, far fewer will do so going forwards.

    (Except in China, where they've seriously fouled up on vax rollout. Comparing Omicron surges in Hong Kong and New Zealand:
    image
    The remark is really quite funny, because it's so obvious that the only "pressure" that could conceivably be being exerted would be in precisely the opposite direction - to minimise the level of infection - in order to fit in with the government's political narrative.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    MISTY said:

    Can Johnson unilaterally call a general election?

    Wouldn't such a call need to be ratified by parliament?

    Yes with reservations

    No
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,196

    Sadly way down. he was past his peak by a long way.
    Oh I agree. Though I am not sure that by Gardenwalker's standards he made any of the really big individual mistakes during his second Premiership that GW ascribes to Cameron and Eden. Nor was he, even at his worst, as fundamentally dishonest, lazy and ignorant as Johnson.

    I would probably put him in with Heath and Major and promote Wilson up alongside Supermac.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,202

    A lot of people are going to sell a lot of books writing this up.

    Not Johnson. He won't sell shit.
    I think he will...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,031

    In theory could the cabinet/party immediately support a different person and get to the Queen first? So she sacks BJ ?
    Whacky Races up the M4 to get to Windsor first.....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,288
    "After that outbreak of mythomania..."
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,838
    And now the race among Cabinet Ministers to make it known they are part of the "delegation" ...
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Lady on the ctte asking Boris to add 32 to 148.

    Of course, this being today, she is already out of date because almost while she was speaking the tally has grown to 33!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,709
    This blood sport must be banned.

  • .

    Whacky Races up the M4 to get to Windsor first.....
    They'll have to stop the pigeon.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,227
    The only way this vice like grip on the job from someone like Bojo nakes sense is if there's a worse personal consequence to him from leaving now than what he's enduring. I shudder to think what that might be.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,859
    If Zahawi survived as Chancellor to the next leader that would surely go down as one of the most impressive examples of naked ambition through shameless bootstrapping.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,539
    They've just told him that his new Chancellor is in the delegation of grey suits with whisky and a revolver. He looked perplexed.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,709

    .

    They'll have to stop the pigeon.
    Queenie is entitled to see Johnson, accept his request for dissolution and say she will reflect on it and take soundings of advisors and get back to him.

  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,795
    So either Boris goes, or goes nuclear.....
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173

    .

    They'll have to stop the pigeon.
    Oi! Enough of that nonsense 😛
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    I know that this can annoy some people but just on this occasion could you all keep up the relevant tweets from political hacks? It's hard to spot the relevant ones even with about 10 tabs open :smiley:

    This is endgame.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    Scott_xP said:

    And another..! Graham Brady may as well meet Johnson at the door at the end of the Liaison Committee. It's over. https://twitter.com/HuwMerriman/status/1544693144645734402

    The smiling assassin.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,227
    edited July 2022

    Tim Shipman did point this out on twitter yesterday when everyone was saying Zahawi is mad.
    I am sure someone here yesterday called Zahawi 'the emerging serious candidate' compared to 'flaky' Mordaunt.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,196

    Sorry, yes, =5.

    “Moderately consequential”.
    Seems spot on to me. Though as I said I think I would move Wilson up a spot alongside Macmillan.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,539

    If Zahawi survived as Chancellor to the next leader that would surely go down as one of the most impressive examples of naked ambition through shameless bootstrapping.

    I want him to resign. Before 10pm. Chancellor for less than 24 hours would make him a permanent fixture in the political history books.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724
    edited July 2022

    Lady on the ctte asking Boris to add 32 to 148.

    Of course, this being today, she is already out of date because almost while she was speaking the tally has grown to 33!

    Heh. Brilliant question. The only defence “that’s not correct because some of my ministers voted against me last time in secret” doesn’t really wash.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970

    If Zahawi survived as Chancellor to the next leader that would surely go down as one of the most impressive examples of naked ambition through shameless bootstrapping.

    Yes. He might have played a blinder

    Doubt it tho
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,841
    Lewis, Shapps, Zahawi and Hart will be the grey suits that go to see the liar king
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    rcs1000 said:

    Hmmm:

    The measure of a PM is performing well in difficult times. Blair had a golden legacy that flatters his performance. (Macmillan is flattered for the same reasons.) Eden was much worse than Cameron, and I would posit Johnson.

    PMs that had really difficult problems to solve and performed well:

    Thatcher (numerous)
    Major (the 1992 recession, Northern Ireland)
    Attlee (post war reconstruction)
    Cameron (GFC fallout)

    And I think you have to say that Johnson performed no worse than peers (and in some ways better) over covid, and he did (sadly via lying) actually get Brexit enacted.

    Johnson is hard to rate; after all he won an election (many didn’t) and oversaw Brexit which of course is a big deal.

    However the man is obviously is clearly the most inept and dishonest holder of the PM office in that list, and for this reason - and indeed the nature of his departure - he is downweighted to bottom.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,031
    edited July 2022

    If Zahawi survived as Chancellor to the next leader that would surely go down as one of the most impressive examples of naked ambition through shameless bootstrapping.

    Not sure the members will see it as impressive bootstrapping though.

    His predecessor will get the credit for doing the right thing.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    MISTY said:


    Talking of f8cked up messes, checked out the mighty euro in the currency markets recently?
    What-aboutism ain't gonna keep the pound afloat. Nor Boris Johnson.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758

    I want him to resign. Before 10pm. Chancellor for less than 24 hours would make him a permanent fixture in the political history books.
    Calculating his next pay cheque would be challenging. Is he an idiot or tactical genius?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    Chris said:

    And now the race among Cabinet Ministers to make it known they are part of the "delegation" ...

    Apparently said delegation to include man appointed as Chancellor a few hours ago. Extraordinary even by Tory meltdown standards.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399
    edited July 2022
    A fortnight old joke

    Kate Lister
    @k8_lister
    CAN WE GET SOME AGENCY WORKERS IN???? #ToryResignations
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,656

    40th anniversary of the Terrence Higgins Trust.

    https://twitter.com/THTorguk/status/1541662684143267842
    Until Keir Starmer mentioned the fact at PMQs, I'd not known Terrence Higgins (of Trust fame) worked for Hansard.
  • MPartridgeMPartridge Posts: 174
    I'm tempted to put alot of money on a 2022 election.

    I think if Boris dissolves Parliament and goes for election, that might be his last ditch attempt to save himself
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063

    This is the thing - are there now enough MP's in the 'loyal' pool to actually replace these junior Ministers, regardless of competency? If not, can the Government function?
    You could probably get by with far fewer ministers of state, but thatd look bad.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    Thanks for the replies.

    It seems to me that the only way the party can stop Johnson calling a GE is to nominate a new leader that can form a government in the near future. I don't see that happening, honestly. It will take them months.

    Johnson is in quite a strong position.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085

    I think he will...
    Political books often sell very poorly. Even the explosive revelation of Currie's affair with John Major didn't lead to sales. Once it was serialised that was it.

    I may be wrong but I'm not sure many people will buy up the account of a serial liar.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,700
    Perhaps you should just take a little more interest in it....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063

    Queenie is entitled to see Johnson, accept his request for dissolution and say she will reflect on it and take soundings of advisors and get back to him.

    Ever actually been tested?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,221

    NEW THREAD

  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    I think he will...
    Yes. However, judging from BJ's previous, er, outpourings, "his" books WILL be shit.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758

    I'm tempted to put alot of money on a 2022 election.

    I think if Boris dissolves Parliament and goes for election, that might be his last ditch attempt to save himself

    I don't think he can pull that off.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,700
    He seems to be excusing Pincher "because some people can't take their drink" ffs!

  • Henry Zeffman
    @hzeffman
    A contact gets in touch 😂



    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1544708309466374144
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,539
    Has anyone checked in with HY to check he is ok?

    Must be traumatic watching the boss collapse like this.

    Is anyone still claiming BlowJo will carry on regardless?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,227
    MISTY said:

    Thanks for the replies.

    It seems to me that the only way the party can stop Johnson calling a GE is to nominate a new leader that can form a government in the near future. I don't see that happening, honestly. It will take them months.

    Johnson is in quite a strong position.

    They don't have to elect a Tory Party leader, they can nominate a caretaker.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,269

    Lady on the ctte asking Boris to add 32 to 148.

    Of course, this being today, she is already out of date because almost while she was speaking the tally has grown to 33!

    And Johnson won't do it because he is inumerate.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,888

    Until Keir Starmer mentioned the fact at PMQs, I'd not known Terrence Higgins (of Trust fame) worked for Hansard.
    Starmer made quite a claim at the beginning of PMQs: something like Labour working with the THT to end HIV by 2030. I might have misremembered it, but it did sound a little like Canute and the tide.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,838

    If Zahawi survived as Chancellor to the next leader that would surely go down as one of the most impressive examples of naked ambition through shameless bootstrapping.

    Not half as impressive as if he ends up as leader!

    With the Tories, all things are possible ...
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    I tipped Zahawi on here a few days ago after seeing those ConHome polls.

    However that was before he made a serious misjudgment taking the CoE role. That, and now his absurd about-turn, make him a laughing stock.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,841
    34
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,935

    I don't think he can pull that off.
    Maybe Pincher could help him.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Sorry, yes, =5.

    “Moderately consequential”.
    Chief success of Churchill's post-war premiership, was keeping Sir Anthony Eden from becoming PM long before he did.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,216

    Delegation to this thread saying it should go now!

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    HYUFD’s absence is eloquent testimony to the effect that Boris is dead.

    I doubt he is upset; He is simply awaiting new orders. I’m not sure he does “emotion”.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,841
    BREAKiNG: LBC reporting the 1922 committee has already changed its rules. Not yet clear in what way.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,130

    I tipped Zahawi on here a few days ago after seeing those ConHome polls.

    However that was before he made a serious misjudgment taking the CoE role. That, and now his absurd about-turn, make him a laughing stock.

    The Tories are quite forgiving of laughing stocks
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    IanB2 said:

    BREAKiNG: LBC reporting the 1922 committee has already changed its rules. Not yet clear in what way.

    “Nobody with the name De Pfeffel shall be allowed to stand for any Conservative office”.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 928
    Wow electrifying stuff from the Liaison Committee grilling Boris. Impossible to get any work done :(
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,562

    Nah, with all respect to the excellent Cyclefree, that's a cheap shot. There is a huge amount of Government activity that someone needs to do which the junior Ministers keep on the road. It simply isn't practical for the Secretary of State to monitor whether, to take a random example, the current regulations on turbines in the North Sea reflect the latest research or there is a compelling case for revising them. The test of Ministers isn't whether they get reported in the broadsheets (let alone the tabloids) and whether we have heard of them.
    Fair enough. But I would like to hear what they are doing and why. It would increase my respect for them. Whereas I had assumed, cynically enough, that all these jobs were there for patronage reasons rather than because they were doing something useful.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,896
    Sean_F said:

    Perhaps Johnson is hoping that thousands of his supporters will march on Whitehall and storm Parliament, to keep him as PM.

    Capitol idea.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    The Grey Suits have started assembling at No 10.

    Believe that spell-check has again betrayed you . . . by substituting "u" for "h" in 3rd word?
This discussion has been closed.