politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As we wait for the final YouGov indyref poll Marf gives her
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As we wait for the final YouGov indyref poll Marf gives her take
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Comments
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First!0
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2nd.0
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Average Yes prediction rises above 48%, turnout approaching 83%:
http://www.nojam.com/demo/pbindycomp/summary.php0 -
To elaborate on my comment on the previous thread.. I see Danny Alexander came out against EVFEL. sign of things to come in my opinion... They are going to try and ride the bad feeling out, but they probably can't see by doing so they are playing right into the hands of UKIP...0
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Sky: Police Scotland investigating complaint about postal votes in Edinburgh....0
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AndyJS said:
Average Yes prediction rises above 48%, turnout nearing 83%:
http://www.nojam.com/demo/pbindycomp/summary.php
I'm fascinated that even with a large number of wildly differing predictions, we are almost the same (48.02) as all the polls are predicting.
Are we all subconsciously applying our own bias applied to where we think the result will be (based on the polls), therefore on average ending up at the same place?
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I don't know about others, but my entry was intended to maximise my chance of winning, not to be the most accurate prediction I could possibly make.0
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Naughty Marf - it is a well known fact, people love to be asked the same question, REPEATEDLY.
off topic - tucked into a rather good bottle of red this evening - should I finish it..?0 -
That's a question?SimonStClare said:Naughty Marf - it is a well known fact, people love be asked the same question, REPEATEDLY.
off topic - tucked into a rather good bottle of red this evening - should I finish it..?0 -
@RodCrosby
Beeb liveblog
"Police Scotland have confirmed they are investigating a complaint that an electoral counting officer in Edinburgh has made public details of the postal ballots cast in the council area.
No further details have been released. Completed postal votes must be received by local councils before ballots close tomorrow evening at ten o'clock. Edinburgh City Council says just under 90% of the postal ballots it sent out have been returned."0 -
I'm actually undecided as to whether or not that's a lovely cartoon, Marf!
Kidding, it's brilliant
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Evening again all
The stupidity of all this is the truth the independence the Scots seek is a chimera. There are very few independent countries - the UK isn't one of them and Scotland won't be one of them either. We pool our sovereignty in key matters through our membership of the UN, NATO and the EU as well as a cat's cradle of other bi-lateral and multi-lateral treaties.
The truth then of the question isn't whether Scotland wants to be independent but simply free of London/England. Exchanging that for economic and political control from Frankfurt and Brussels respectively is the other choice.
Nor can EWNI sit back and allow Scotland to become an economic basket case any more than we could with Ireland in 2010. We contributed billions to both the main bailout and the bailout of Ulster Bank. EWNI would, for all the protestations of some on here, have to prop up Scotland because the financial, social, political and law & order consequences of a Scottish economic collapse are too drastic for an EWNI Government to tolerate.
Politically, Scotland has a number of possible paths IF it becomes independent but the SNP will be diminished if not redundant - it's entirely likely a centre-right grouping and a centre-left grouping will emerge with more extreme parties on either flank (so nothing unusual there).0 -
So 53 less MPs - was that not a LD manifesto pledge ?0
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Well Aberdeen is shrouded in fog this evening and the mizzle is well set for the night.
Can't vote myself but looking forward to tomorrow and personally hoping for a Yes vote.
Whatever happens it is going to be an interesting few years and I can't help but think that a No vote might be more problematic for the politicians in the long run than a Yes vote.0 -
Bubble chart of 2014 registrations v 1997 YESsers, and electorate sizes.
Sorry about the squiggles, trying to divide it into quadrants, showing average 1997 YES (72.5%) and average 2014 Registration (97%)
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/13331381/registration.PNG
Edinburgh and Aberdeen both in the bottom left...0 -
Given the number of entries continuing to be submitted, maybe it would have been better to ask for 3 percentage points.0
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Your man on the spot has found no reported sightings of the horsemen of the apocalypse.
Good for a "NO" vote?0 -
A
I saw a very brave turnout prediction of 46%.AndyJS said:Given the number of entries continuing to be submitted, maybe it would have been better to ask for 3 percentage points.
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The EU certainly think so!SimonStClare said:Naughty Marf - it is a well known fact, people love to be asked the same question, REPEATEDLY.
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The English can have their rump parliament back at last hopefully.
To scots , Depart, I say; and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go.
Because we surely do not want to go through this again, in the next few years if it is a close no vote.0 -
Great British Bake-off about to begin... Well done MI5
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EVfEL is a half measure that will not solve anything when there is the possibility that Scottish MP's can act as Ministers defining the policies for devolved areas presented to Parliament and the specific financials settlements for devolved areas (e.g as the Chief Secretary of the Treasury Danny Alexander does). Now whilst you may be able to exclude Home Nations MPs from devolved areas it would be wrong to exclude them from budgetary areas and part devolved / part shared areas (e.g. the Home Office) and it would be impossible for them to be excluded from voting through the budget. Any potential Westminster solution would be so convoluted it would undoubtedly turn out to be virtually unworkable.numbertwelve said:To elaborate on my comment on the previous thread.. I see Danny Alexander came out against EVFEL. sign of things to come in my opinion... They are going to try and ride the bad feeling out, but they probably can't see by doing so they are playing right into the hands of UKIP...
If they still have influence over specific devolved financial arrangements then any other reforms are meaningless. Redwood understands the reality of the issue. There is only one fair and equal solution and that is an English Parliament
Other than that someone should tell Alexander to mind his own f***ing business. Just as the English have no say in Scottish democracy nor should Scots have any say in English affairs!0 -
Rod, could you kindly repost the chart you produced of the size of the lead over the course of the evening in the event of small "Yes" win. Many thanks.RodCrosby said:Bubble chart of 2014 registrations v 1997 YESsers, and electorate sizes.
Sorry about the squiggles, trying to divide it into quadrants, showing average 1997 YES (72.5%) and average 2014 Registration (97%)
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/13331381/registration.PNG
Edinburgh and Aberdeen both in the bottom left...0 -
O/T - it seems quite clear to me that none of the three party leaders have even the slightest intent of offering EVFEL, or even to start to think seriously about a new overall constitutional settlement for the UK. They just hope people will forget once the referendum is over, and it will go away.
It won't, and people's resentment at the established Westminster parties will just continue to grow and grow as they'll feel they've be taken for fools.
Will they ever learn?0 -
There's going to be incredible despondency, dejection and disbelief from whichever side loses tomorrow night. I just hope things don't get out of hand.0
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Not so Mr #12 - only if they give the wrong answer the first time ; )numbertwelve said:
The EU certainly think so!SimonStClare said:Naughty Marf - it is a well known fact, people love to be asked the same question, REPEATEDLY.
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Got my prediction in when I used a different computer.MarkHopkins said:AndyJS said:Average Yes prediction rises above 48%, turnout nearing 83%:
http://www.nojam.com/demo/pbindycomp/summary.php
I'm fascinated that even with a large number of wildly differing predictions, we are almost the same (48.02) as all the polls are predicting.
Are we all subconsciously applying our own bias applied to where we think the result will be (based on the polls), therefore on average ending up at the same place?
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I don't think that's true. People won't be allowed to forget, because the new scottish powers will be debate intensely for months in the event of a No win. I think it more likely that they certainly had no intention of offering EVFEL, but events have moved on and at the moment they just want to secure Scotland for another 5-10 years, and then they'll deal with the next problem. Many Tory and no doubt some Labour MPs are pressing for something to be done, even though that includes going offscript and undermining their leaders as they make their pledges to Scotland, and that says to me the parties will have to offer something. Will be as little as they think can be offered to resolve the imbalance? Yes of course it will, but they cannot seriously think it will go off the agenda.Casino_Royale said:O/T - it seems quite clear to me that none of the three party leaders have even the slightest intent of offering EVFEL, or even to start to think seriously about a new overall constitutional settlement for the UK. They just hope people will forget once the referendum is over, and it will go away.
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There may be a comment or two from activists at the party conferences if that is indeed the case.Casino_Royale said:O/T - it seems quite clear to me that none of the three party leaders have even the slightest intent of offering EVFEL, or even to start to think seriously about a new overall constitutional settlement for the UK. They just hope people will forget once the referendum is over, and it will go away.
It won't, and people's resentment at the established Westminster parties will just continue to grow and grow as they'll feel they've be taken for fools.
Will they ever learn?0 -
Apparently tonight's YouGov will have the largest sample size of any IndyRef poll so far: 3,237 respondents. (Source = AndrewCharalambous on Twitter).0
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Momentous decision having just watched Brown's speech.
Time to ditch my avatar ... for now.0 -
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/13331381/Indyref.PNGLife_ina_market_town said:
Rod, could you kindly repost the chart you produced of the size of the lead over the course of the evening in the event of small "Yes" win. Many thanks.RodCrosby said:Bubble chart of 2014 registrations v 1997 YESsers, and electorate sizes.
Sorry about the squiggles, trying to divide it into quadrants, showing average 1997 YES (72.5%) and average 2014 Registration (97%)
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/13331381/registration.PNG
Edinburgh and Aberdeen both in the bottom left...
Just one possible declaration order of course...0 -
Going slightly off topic, i'm beginning to see the wisdom of the USA founding fathers of having an electoral college rather than a direct presidential election.
Say the Salisglow Trottofascist Party (STP) engaged in a large scale electoral fraud in Rumbabwe at the independence referendum and added 50,000 extra YES votes. With a close vote that could tip the result.
If the referendum was based instead on an electoral college, this fraud would only affect the election of the representitive in Salisglow (which would probably be from the STP anyway) and pointless to do.
Also an electoral college would mean that support would need to be there nationwide, with a direct vote, a large city can effectively outvote everyone else in a close result that reflects more that city than the country as a whole.
Finally, if the result is VERY close, with an electoral college, you would not face the logistical nightmare of a nationwide recount. Just recounts in constituencies where the electoral college member contest was close.0 -
Good, pleased you're in now.Alistair said:
Got my prediction in when I used a different computer.MarkHopkins said:AndyJS said:Average Yes prediction rises above 48%, turnout nearing 83%:
http://www.nojam.com/demo/pbindycomp/summary.php
I'm fascinated that even with a large number of wildly differing predictions, we are almost the same (48.02) as all the polls are predicting.
Are we all subconsciously applying our own bias applied to where we think the result will be (based on the polls), therefore on average ending up at the same place?
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Only when they are voted out of office in favour of MPs that will support EVFEL (what does this actually mean, I presume English devolution of some sort?)Casino_Royale said:O/T - it seems quite clear to me that none of the three party leaders have even the slightest intent of offering EVFEL, or even to start to think seriously about a new overall constitutional settlement for the UK. They just hope people will forget once the referendum is over, and it will go away.
It won't, and people's resentment at the established Westminster parties will just continue to grow and grow as they'll feel they've be taken for fools.
Will they ever learn?0 -
This referendum really is kicking off a lot more stuff, here's Wales...
Labour would 'address under-funding', says Jones
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-29217832
Stephen Crabb says Welsh tax restrictions could be scrapped
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-29246205
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0
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-29223350
Facebook is trending YES. Can this be the future for polls and pollsters?0 -
SKY report that various people are upset with their postal vote (both ways) and wish they could have voted later. Go figure!Smarmeron said:@RodCrosby
Beeb liveblog
"Police Scotland have confirmed they are investigating a complaint that an electoral counting officer in Edinburgh has made public details of the postal ballots cast in the council area.
No further details have been released. Completed postal votes must be received by local councils before ballots close tomorrow evening at ten o'clock. Edinburgh City Council says just under 90% of the postal ballots it sent out have been returned."
http://news.sky.com/story/1334420/scotland-postal-voters-regretting-their-choice0 -
Desperate times calls for desperate measures!Scrapheap_as_was said:Momentous decision having just watched Brown's speech.
Time to ditch my avatar ... for now.
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@RodCrosby
Nope, we are a 24 hour piss up society now.0 -
It always seemed a bit pointless anyhow. Just order you beer before midnight, and sit there drinking it until the towels come off again!Smarmeron said:@RodCrosby
Nope, we are a 24 hour piss up society now.0 -
Tried to find a picture of Stevie G slipping over but no luck... stick with Ed M instead...RobD said:
Desperate times calls for desperate measures!Scrapheap_as_was said:Momentous decision having just watched Brown's speech.
Time to ditch my avatar ... for now.0 -
@RodCrosby
When I started drinking last orders were at 10pm.0 -
Think you have a misconception as to how the electoral college works. Each State decides how its votes are allocated and in general the parties decide who their representatives to the EC will be. In theory, they are bound to vote the way their vote is allocated, but in practice, they could change their vote.Paul_Mid_Beds said:Going slightly off topic, i'm beginning to see the wisdom of the USA founding fathers of having an electoral college rather than a direct presidential election.
Say the Salisglow Trottofascist Party (STP) engaged in a large scale electoral fraud in Rumbabwe at the independence referendum and added 50,000 extra YES votes. With a close vote that could tip the result.
If the referendum was based instead on an electoral college, this fraud would only affect the election of the representitive in Salisglow (which would probably be from the STP anyway) and pointless to do.
Also an electoral college would mean that support would need to be there nationwide, with a direct vote, a large city can effectively outvote everyone else in a close result that reflects more that city than the country as a whole.
Finally, if the result is VERY close, with an electoral college, you would not face the logistical nightmare of a nationwide recount. Just recounts in constituencies where the electoral college member contest was close.
For most states (all except Maine and Nebraska), all the EC votes go to the winning party. So 50,000 ballots tipping the overall state vote in a swing state would have a major impact on the EC vote, and hence the outcome of a Presidential election (though not in either part of Congress).0 -
You're skipping over all the downsides though. The possibility of a lower vote winner.Paul_Mid_Beds said:Going slightly off topic, i'm beginning to see the wisdom of the USA founding fathers of having an electoral college rather than a direct presidential election.
Say the Salisglow Trottofascist Party (STP) engaged in a large scale electoral fraud in Rumbabwe at the independence referendum and added 50,000 extra YES votes. With a close vote that could tip the result.
If the referendum was based instead on an electoral college, this fraud would only affect the election of the representitive in Salisglow (which would probably be from the STP anyway) and pointless to do.
Also an electoral college would mean that support would need to be there nationwide, with a direct vote, a large city can effectively outvote everyone else in a close result that reflects more that city than the country as a whole.
Finally, if the result is VERY close, with an electoral college, you would not face the logistical nightmare of a nationwide recount. Just recounts in constituencies where the electoral college member contest was close.
Also the very common thing that candidates focus their campaigns on constituencies where the electoral college is close while ignoring non-swing areas and so on. (Then gerrymandering etc).
The wisdom of it is rather disputed.0 -
He's a deeply-flawed politician, but I think he's been playing a blinder these last few days: putting the passion into No which has been sorely lacking up to now.Scrapheap_as_was said:Momentous decision having just watched Brown's speech.
Time to ditch my avatar ... for now.0 -
Margin of error with the YouGov poll will be 1.72% assuming 3.5 million votes (83% turnout), with 3,237 respondents:
http://www.comres.co.uk/poll-digest/11/margin-of-error-calculator.htm#
Margin of error for the ICM poll putting Yes on 54% was 3.7% (sample=705).0 -
Excellent cartoon Marf0
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Tory backbenchers will push for EVEL regardless of what Cameron thinks, as will Carswell and any more UKIP MPs elected0
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I may be misremembering it. Edinburgh, 1982!Smarmeron said:@RodCrosby
When I started drinking last orders were at 10pm.0 -
Supposedly some of the beggars, or their minions at least, read this site. If they do they can't have failed to get the message. Really pissing off 92% of the UK before a general election strikes me as a rather foolish thing to do. Maybe they will twig this once things calm down.Casino_Royale said:O/T - it seems quite clear to me that none of the three party leaders have even the slightest intent of offering EVFEL, or even to start to think seriously about a new overall constitutional settlement for the UK. They just hope people will forget once the referendum is over, and it will go away.
It won't, and people's resentment at the established Westminster parties will just continue to grow and grow as they'll feel they've be taken for fools.
Will they ever learn?0 -
And as I understand it, this has in fact happened before, although if it had changed the ultimate result by doing so surely it would have been changed by now.MTimT said:
In theory, they are bound to vote the way their vote is allocated, but in practice, they could change their vote.Paul_Mid_Beds said:Going slightly off topic, i'm beginning to see the wisdom of the USA founding fathers of having an electoral college rather than a direct presidential election.
Say the Salisglow Trottofascist Party (STP) engaged in a large scale electoral fraud in Rumbabwe at the independence referendum and added 50,000 extra YES votes. With a close vote that could tip the result.
If the referendum was based instead on an electoral college, this fraud would only affect the election of the representitive in Salisglow (which would probably be from the STP anyway) and pointless to do.
Also an electoral college would mean that support would need to be there nationwide, with a direct vote, a large city can effectively outvote everyone else in a close result that reflects more that city than the country as a whole.
Finally, if the result is VERY close, with an electoral college, you would not face the logistical nightmare of a nationwide recount. Just recounts in constituencies where the electoral college member contest was close.
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It's something people are looking at, but we're quite a long way off being able to understand or translate it into anything.MikeK said:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-29223350
Facebook is trending YES. Can this be the future for polls and pollsters?0 -
Just spoken to someone who lives in an estate that has been visited by a flash mob of Yes supporters. Roads blocked by dozens of vehicles. Kids screaming "yes, yes, yes". She's a proud Scot who said that she is proud to be British when knocked up by them. Was told to "Go back to London". She was shaking with rage at the intimidation. You folks down south have no idea of what it is like up here.0
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@RodCrosby
I think....and I might be wrong, that when the extended hours first came in, they had to shut the bar for cleaning at certain times.
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Relatively speaking you are absolutely right - just such a contrast to the pb-view of the badger and of course ed, it's frightening how reliant we have been in recent days on a self-proclaimed ex-politician.ThomasNashe said:
He's a deeply-flawed politician, but I think he's been playing a blinder these last few days: putting the passion into No which has been sorely lacking up to now.Scrapheap_as_was said:Momentous decision having just watched Brown's speech.
Time to ditch my avatar ... for now.0 -
IIRC, the idea is that, in the event of a 269-269 tie in the EC, there would be referral to the Senate, and if there were a tie there, it would go back to the EC for a 'free vote'. I don't have the time to find the references to cite, and this is from memory.kle4 said:
And as I understand it, this has in fact happened before, although if it had changed the ultimate result by doing so surely it would have been changed by now.MTimT said:
In theory, they are bound to vote the way their vote is allocated, but in practice, they could change their vote.Paul_Mid_Beds said:Going slightly off topic, i'm beginning to see the wisdom of the USA founding fathers of having an electoral college rather than a direct presidential election.
Say the Salisglow Trottofascist Party (STP) engaged in a large scale electoral fraud in Rumbabwe at the independence referendum and added 50,000 extra YES votes. With a close vote that could tip the result.
If the referendum was based instead on an electoral college, this fraud would only affect the election of the representitive in Salisglow (which would probably be from the STP anyway) and pointless to do.
Also an electoral college would mean that support would need to be there nationwide, with a direct vote, a large city can effectively outvote everyone else in a close result that reflects more that city than the country as a whole.
Finally, if the result is VERY close, with an electoral college, you would not face the logistical nightmare of a nationwide recount. Just recounts in constituencies where the electoral college member contest was close.0 -
Is this a new politics website? May 2015
First article is a description of the charming constituency of Thurrock
http://may2015.com/
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A few places would keep the punters in place by bringing on the strippers during the interlude, IIRC...Smarmeron said:@RodCrosby
I think....and I might be wrong, that when the extended hours first came in, they had to shut the bar for cleaning at certain times.0 -
Of course us having no idea what it is like up there is a major reason they say they are voting Yes in the first place.NorthBriton said:You folks down south have no idea of what it is like up here.
In all seriousness that is concerning to me, but I am sure a Yes supporter will point to an incident involving No supporters. I only wish I could believe there was a shy No surge coming as a result of what you state, but I cannot see it.
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Maybe they will twig this once things calm down.
The towering, furious, stony silence on the tory back benches is almost palpable. You can almost touch it.
Not for much longer....0 -
Oh, agreed. It's a constitutional headache.manofkent2014 said:
EVfEL is a half measure that will not solve anything when there is the possibility that Scottish MP's can act as Ministers defining the policies for devolved areas presented to Parliament and the specific financials settlements for devolved areas (e.g as the Chief Secretary of the Treasury Danny Alexander does). Now whilst you may be able to exclude Home Nations MPs from devolved areas it would be wrong to exclude them from budgetary areas and part devolved / part shared areas (e.g. the Home Office) and it would be impossible for them to be excluded from voting through the budget. Any potential Westminster solution would be so convoluted it would undoubtedly turn out to be virtually unworkable.numbertwelve said:To elaborate on my comment on the previous thread.. I see Danny Alexander came out against EVFEL. sign of things to come in my opinion... They are going to try and ride the bad feeling out, but they probably can't see by doing so they are playing right into the hands of UKIP...
If they still have influence over specific devolved financial arrangements then any other reforms are meaningless. Redwood understands the reality of the issue. There is only one fair and equal solution and that is an English Parliament
Other than that someone should tell Alexander to mind his own f***ing business. Just as the English have no say in Scottish democracy nor should Scots have any say in English affairs!
Personally I think the best way out of it is a sort of confederation (but with budgetary and financial oversight so as not to do a Euro). But we need to think big. And our politicians are horribly short-termist in their thinking.0 -
If it is yes then i am afraid Scottish people in England will have to put up with a lot of anger from English people. I dont think Salmond has a clue what this will mean for Scotland and Scottish people if the vote is yes. The pressure on English politicians to give Scotland the worst deal possible will be huge.NorthBriton said:Just spoken to someone who lives in an estate that has been visited by a flash mob of Yes supporters. Roads blocked by dozens of vehicles. Kids screaming "yes, yes, yes". She's a proud Scot who said that she is proud to be British when knocked up by them. Was told to "Go back to London". She was shaking with rage at the intimidation. You folks down south have no idea of what it is like up here.
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Unbelievable. And they think this sort of behaviour will help their cause?NorthBriton said:Just spoken to someone who lives in an estate that has been visited by a flash mob of Yes supporters. Roads blocked by dozens of vehicles. Kids screaming "yes, yes, yes". She's a proud Scot who said that she is proud to be British when knocked up by them. Was told to "Go back to London". She was shaking with rage at the intimidation. You folks down south have no idea of what it is like up here.
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One further down says Huw Edwards will be taking over election duties from Dimbleby after 2015, I don't remember hearing about that. Interesting.isam said:Is this a new politics website? May 2015
First article is a description of the charming constituency of Thurrock
http://may2015.com/
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At 300 entries, we are averaging at 48.06% Yes.
Wisdom? Or herd?
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YES coming in on BF....0
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How many were in the BBC's 1992 exit poll? Was it 14,000? It's an intersting question as to whether 3,000 is likely to give you a more accurate result than 1,000. With 1,000 you do get the occasional rogue.AndyJS said:Apparently tonight's YouGov will have the largest sample size of any IndyRef poll so far: 3,237 respondents. (Source = AndrewCharalambous on Twitter).
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Rod, I seem to remember visiting rural Scotland in the mid 70s when last call was even earlier. Used to be 10:30 weekdays and Saturday and 10:00pm Sunday in England, IIRC.RodCrosby said:
I may be misremembering it. Edinburgh, 1982!Smarmeron said:@RodCrosby
When I started drinking last orders were at 10pm.0 -
Evening all. We'll soon be on #thefinalcountdown0
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faithless_electorkle4 said:
And as I understand it, this has in fact happened before, although if it had changed the ultimate result by doing so surely it would have been changed by now.MTimT said:
In theory, they are bound to vote the way their vote is allocated, but in practice, they could change their vote.Paul_Mid_Beds said:Going slightly off topic, i'm beginning to see the wisdom of the USA founding fathers of having an electoral college rather than a direct presidential election.
Say the Salisglow Trottofascist Party (STP) engaged in a large scale electoral fraud in Rumbabwe at the independence referendum and added 50,000 extra YES votes. With a close vote that could tip the result.
If the referendum was based instead on an electoral college, this fraud would only affect the election of the representitive in Salisglow (which would probably be from the STP anyway) and pointless to do.
Also an electoral college would mean that support would need to be there nationwide, with a direct vote, a large city can effectively outvote everyone else in a close result that reflects more that city than the country as a whole.
Finally, if the result is VERY close, with an electoral college, you would not face the logistical nightmare of a nationwide recount. Just recounts in constituencies where the electoral college member contest was close.
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@NorthBriton
No sign of trouble here, but later on we are going to drape the balcony of Robbie's flat with Union jacks and put "no" stickers over his yes ones.....
Or not,.. depends on how drunk we get.0 -
First could we have a Eurovision semifinal contest between those who want David Cameron to resign because he didn't offer Devomax in the referendum and those who want him to resign because he has now offered something like Devomax as a Vow? We could do with the entertainment.taffys said:Maybe they will twig this once things calm down.
The towering, furious, stony silence on the tory back benches is almost palpable. You can almost touch it.
Not for much longer....0 -
Well I have plenty of idea what it is like 'up here' having been wandering around Aberdeen today. No sign at all of the idiocy you describe and I am firmly of the opinion that these incidents are very rare and being highlighted by the press to make it seem like it is the norm.NorthBriton said:Just spoken to someone who lives in an estate that has been visited by a flash mob of Yes supporters. Roads blocked by dozens of vehicles. Kids screaming "yes, yes, yes". She's a proud Scot who said that she is proud to be British when knocked up by them. Was told to "Go back to London". She was shaking with rage at the intimidation. You folks down south have no idea of what it is like up here.
It isn't and you should stop trying to pretend otherwise.0 -
Have a look on here about 10 minutes in if you're using a laptop or desktop computer. It won't play on mobile devices or tablets which is what I'm on at the moment.FrankBooth said:
How many were in the BBC's 1992 exit poll? Was it 14,000? It's an intersting question as to whether 3,000 is likely to give you a more accurate result than 1,000. With 1,000 you do get the occasional rogue.AndyJS said:Apparently tonight's YouGov will have the largest sample size of any IndyRef poll so far: 3,237 respondents. (Source = AndrewCharalambous on Twitter).
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ARifiLUKwxA0 -
I honestly don't know. Seems counter-productive to me. They seem to think they are a liberation army. But it is really horrible. The SNP have an enormous sense of entitlement, particularly in this part of Scotland. Things have really polarised.AndyJS said:
Unbelievable. And they think this sort of behaviour will help their cause?NorthBriton said:Just spoken to someone who lives in an estate that has been visited by a flash mob of Yes supporters. Roads blocked by dozens of vehicles. Kids screaming "yes, yes, yes". She's a proud Scot who said that she is proud to be British when knocked up by them. Was told to "Go back to London". She was shaking with rage at the intimidation. You folks down south have no idea of what it is like up here.
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I'm from Aberdeen.Richard_Tyndall said:
Well I have plenty of idea what it is like 'up here' having been wandering around Aberdeen today. No sign at all of the idiocy you describe and I am firmly of the opinion that these incidents are very rare and being highlighted by the press to make it seem like it is the norm.NorthBriton said:Just spoken to someone who lives in an estate that has been visited by a flash mob of Yes supporters. Roads blocked by dozens of vehicles. Kids screaming "yes, yes, yes". She's a proud Scot who said that she is proud to be British when knocked up by them. Was told to "Go back to London". She was shaking with rage at the intimidation. You folks down south have no idea of what it is like up here.
It isn't and you should stop trying to pretend otherwise.
It's a pretty mild place for most things in all honesty. The atmosphere at Pittodrie for Strachan's first game in charge of Scotland was even convivial.0 -
No, it would go to the House who vote in state delegations, not as individuals (so you need 26 states, not 218 Representatives). If no-one wins an outright majority, the House keeps voting until someone does.MTimT said:
IIRC, the idea is that, in the event of a 269-269 tie in the EC, there would be referral to the Senate, and if there were a tie there, it would go back to the EC for a 'free vote'. I don't have the time to find the references to cite, and this is from memory.kle4 said:
And as I understand it, this has in fact happened before, although if it had changed the ultimate result by doing so surely it would have been changed by now.MTimT said:
In theory, they are bound to vote the way their vote is allocated, but in practice, they could change their vote.Paul_Mid_Beds said:Going slightly off topic, i'm beginning to see the wisdom of the USA founding fathers of having an electoral college rather than a direct presidential election.
Say the Salisglow Trottofascist Party (STP) engaged in a large scale electoral fraud in Rumbabwe at the independence referendum and added 50,000 extra YES votes. With a close vote that could tip the result.
If the referendum was based instead on an electoral college, this fraud would only affect the election of the representitive in Salisglow (which would probably be from the STP anyway) and pointless to do.
Also an electoral college would mean that support would need to be there nationwide, with a direct vote, a large city can effectively outvote everyone else in a close result that reflects more that city than the country as a whole.
Finally, if the result is VERY close, with an electoral college, you would not face the logistical nightmare of a nationwide recount. Just recounts in constituencies where the electoral college member contest was close.
You have to remember that when the Constitution was written, in the late 18th century, there had to be sufficient time built into the system to allow delegations to meet in state capitals, vote (using independent judgement as originally envisaged), for those votes to be transferred to Washington and counted, then for the House to assemble and vote if necessary. If would have been impossible to then throw the thing back across the continent the EC.0 -
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The Ipsos Mori is enough of a move to have the nerves twanging once again.
Canvassing in a good area for us tonight focussing on GOTV. Vote extremely solid. Only 1 person switched from no to yes all night for 3 of us. Far, far more don't knows coming to us than to yes, roughly 3:1.
I don't think we will win Dundee but I hope it will be closer than Yes think.0 -
We could do with the entertainment.
Devomax isn;t the problem Anti-Frank.
'No change' in England is the problem. There is no way the tories will give money and power away without reciprocal powers for England in return. Certainly not to a country where revolutionary socialism is clearly alive and well.
That is what the leaders of the three main parties are asking. They are insane.0 -
@And as I understand it, this has in fact happened before, although if it had changed the ultimate result by doing so surely it would have been changed by now.
@MTimT
If electoral college is tied the vote then goes to the House of Representatives not the Senate. If tied their then the Speaker of the House casts the deciding vote.0 -
It is a pretty laid back place. Certainly it is a hell of a lot more friendly than when I first started working up here in the late 80s when it was still a pretty horrible oil town.AllyM said:
I'm from Aberdeen.Richard_Tyndall said:
Well I have plenty of idea what it is like 'up here' having been wandering around Aberdeen today. No sign at all of the idiocy you describe and I am firmly of the opinion that these incidents are very rare and being highlighted by the press to make it seem like it is the norm.NorthBriton said:Just spoken to someone who lives in an estate that has been visited by a flash mob of Yes supporters. Roads blocked by dozens of vehicles. Kids screaming "yes, yes, yes". She's a proud Scot who said that she is proud to be British when knocked up by them. Was told to "Go back to London". She was shaking with rage at the intimidation. You folks down south have no idea of what it is like up here.
It isn't and you should stop trying to pretend otherwise.
It's a pretty mild place for most things in all honesty. The atmosphere at Pittodrie for Strachan's first game in charge of Scotland was even convivial.0 -
No, I went for 50.83%MarkHopkins said:
At 300 entries, we are averaging at 48.06% Yes.
Wisdom? Or herd?0 -
You may well be right about other places - I can only speak for where I live. And it is a I describe. I can vouch for it and I am not pretending. Your last comment is, frankly, an ignorant insult.Richard_Tyndall said:
Well I have plenty of idea what it is like 'up here' having been wandering around Aberdeen today. No sign at all of the idiocy you describe and I am firmly of the opinion that these incidents are very rare and being highlighted by the press to make it seem like it is the norm.NorthBriton said:Just spoken to someone who lives in an estate that has been visited by a flash mob of Yes supporters. Roads blocked by dozens of vehicles. Kids screaming "yes, yes, yes". She's a proud Scot who said that she is proud to be British when knocked up by them. Was told to "Go back to London". She was shaking with rage at the intimidation. You folks down south have no idea of what it is like up here.
It isn't and you should stop trying to pretend otherwise.0 -
I'm sure there's a provision with the House to select the President and the Senate to select the Vice-President, or something of that nature?david_herdson said:
No, it would go to the House who vote in state delegations, not as individuals (so you need 26 states, not 218 Representatives). If no-one wins an outright majority, the House keeps voting until someone does.MTimT said:
IIRC, the idea is that, in the event of a 269-269 tie in the EC, there would be referral to the Senate, and if there were a tie there, it would go back to the EC for a 'free vote'. I don't have the time to find the references to cite, and this is from memory.kle4 said:
And as I understand it, this has in fact happened before, although if it had changed the ultimate result by doing so surely it would have been changed by now.MTimT said:
In theory, they are bound to vote the way their vote is allocated, but in practice, they could change their vote.Paul_Mid_Beds said:Going slightly off topic, i'm beginning to see the wisdom of the USA founding fathers of having an electoral college rather than a direct presidential election.
Say the Salisglow Trottofascist Party (STP) engaged in a large scale electoral fraud in Rumbabwe at the independence referendum and added 50,000 extra YES votes. With a close vote that could tip the result.
If the referendum was based instead on an electoral college, this fraud would only affect the election of the representitive in Salisglow (which would probably be from the STP anyway) and pointless to do.
Also an electoral college would mean that support would need to be there nationwide, with a direct vote, a large city can effectively outvote everyone else in a close result that reflects more that city than the country as a whole.
Finally, if the result is VERY close, with an electoral college, you would not face the logistical nightmare of a nationwide recount. Just recounts in constituencies where the electoral college member contest was close.
You have to remember that when the Constitution was written, in the late 18th century, there had to be sufficient time built into the system to allow delegations to meet in state capitals, vote (using independent judgement as originally envisaged), for those votes to be transferred to Washington and counted, then for the House to assemble and vote if necessary. If would have been impossible to then throw the thing back across the continent the EC.0 -
Your hard work is to be applauded. Whatever the outcome.DavidL said:The Ipsos Mori is enough of a move to have the nerves twanging once again.
Canvassing in a good area for us tonight focussing on GOTV. Vote extremely solid. Only 1 person switched from no to yes all night for 3 of us. Far, far more don't knows coming to us than to yes, roughly 3:1.
I don't think we will win Dundee but I hope it will be closer than Yes think.0 -
To think that up until a few weeks ago the Westminster Elite were droaning on about UKIP being the real threat to the Rightwing Establishment
*lol*
And that someone who really got it, Gordon Brown, has had to step in to try to save a pathetic, grovelling David Cameron's skin
*chortle*
PB Tories, at least, can't say they weren't told a LONG time ago, even though they were "zzz"ing and "braveheart"ing, up until a few short weeks ago.
*falls off cat crying with laughter*0 -
And the game at Celtic park in November?AllyM said:
I'm from Aberdeen.Richard_Tyndall said:
Well I have plenty of idea what it is like 'up here' having been wandering around Aberdeen today. No sign at all of the idiocy you describe and I am firmly of the opinion that these incidents are very rare and being highlighted by the press to make it seem like it is the norm.NorthBriton said:Just spoken to someone who lives in an estate that has been visited by a flash mob of Yes supporters. Roads blocked by dozens of vehicles. Kids screaming "yes, yes, yes". She's a proud Scot who said that she is proud to be British when knocked up by them. Was told to "Go back to London". She was shaking with rage at the intimidation. You folks down south have no idea of what it is like up here.
It isn't and you should stop trying to pretend otherwise.
It's a pretty mild place for most things in all honesty. The atmosphere at Pittodrie for Strachan's first game in charge of Scotland was even convivial.0 -
Chicago Business School assesses the potential consequences of Scottish independence:
http://www.igmchicago.org/igm-economic-experts-panel/poll-results?SurveyID=SV_bxZQSOkoVPNdke90
