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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As we wait for the final YouGov indyref poll Marf gives her

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    MTimT said:

    kle4 said:

    MTimT said:

    Going slightly off topic, i'm beginning to see the wisdom of the USA founding fathers of having an electoral college rather than a direct presidential election.

    Say the Salisglow Trottofascist Party (STP) engaged in a large scale electoral fraud in Rumbabwe at the independence referendum and added 50,000 extra YES votes. With a close vote that could tip the result.

    If the referendum was based instead on an electoral college, this fraud would only affect the election of the representitive in Salisglow (which would probably be from the STP anyway) and pointless to do.

    Also an electoral college would mean that support would need to be there nationwide, with a direct vote, a large city can effectively outvote everyone else in a close result that reflects more that city than the country as a whole.

    Finally, if the result is VERY close, with an electoral college, you would not face the logistical nightmare of a nationwide recount. Just recounts in constituencies where the electoral college member contest was close.

    In theory, they are bound to vote the way their vote is allocated, but in practice, they could change their vote.

    And as I understand it, this has in fact happened before, although if it had changed the ultimate result by doing so surely it would have been changed by now.
    IIRC, the idea is that, in the event of a 269-269 tie in the EC, there would be referral to the Senate, and if there were a tie there, it would go back to the EC for a 'free vote'. I don't have the time to find the references to cite, and this is from memory.
    No, it would go to the House who vote in state delegations, not as individuals (so you need 26 states, not 218 Representatives). If no-one wins an outright majority, the House keeps voting until someone does.

    You have to remember that when the Constitution was written, in the late 18th century, there had to be sufficient time built into the system to allow delegations to meet in state capitals, vote (using independent judgement as originally envisaged), for those votes to be transferred to Washington and counted, then for the House to assemble and vote if necessary. If would have been impossible to then throw the thing back across the continent the EC.
    Knew it was something like that - thank you!
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,133
    I can't believe I'm saying this but......

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100286613/scottish-independence-the-union-wasnt-strong-enough-to-withstand-one-rogue-poll/

    I agree with Dan. He really is a witty and insightful commentator when he isn't talking about Ed Miliband or predicting next year's general election. Whatever the result tomorrow, Yes win or narrow No - we've got problems. Can they be resolved? Hard to say. Would a true social democratic government in Westminster get Scotland back on board?
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    taffys said:

    We could do with the entertainment.

    Devomax isn;t the problem Anti-Frank.

    'No change' in England is the problem. There is no way the tories will give money and power away without reciprocal powers for England in return. Certainly not to a country where revolutionary socialism is clearly alive and well.

    That is what the leaders of the three main parties are asking. They are insane.

    It's Wednesday. Wait until Friday. If it's relevant then.
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    RobCRobC Posts: 398
    DavidL said:

    The Ipsos Mori is enough of a move to have the nerves twanging once again.

    Canvassing in a good area for us tonight focussing on GOTV. Vote extremely solid. Only 1 person switched from no to yes all night for 3 of us. Far, far more don't knows coming to us than to yes, roughly 3:1.

    I don't think we will win Dundee but I hope it will be closer than Yes think.

    To be honest a good No poll may not actually be helpful at this stage despite the nerves it would engender.
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    GIN1138 said:

    Evening all. We'll soon be on #thefinalcountdown

    Indeed – btw, are you muscling in on TSE’s use of 80’s pop songs?
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    corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549

    AndyJS said:

    Apparently tonight's YouGov will have the largest sample size of any IndyRef poll so far: 3,237 respondents. (Source = AndrewCharalambous on Twitter).

    How many were in the BBC's 1992 exit poll? Was it 14,000? It's an intersting question as to whether 3,000 is likely to give you a more accurate result than 1,000. With 1,000 you do get the occasional rogue.
    With 1,000 you get ~50% of being within 1 point, and ~95% of being within 3.

    3,000 improves those percentages somewhat (there are equations and things). That's using the calculation for a (hypothetically) infinite electorate (so it doesn't change if you're polling Scotland or the UK for example even with very different total population sizes), if you can ever get up to ~5% of the electorate then it flips over to a different set of equations.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,371
    edited September 2014
    isam said:

    Is this a new politics website? May 2015

    First article is a description of the charming constituency of Thurrock


    http://may2015.com/

    Actually, AFAIR it's a fair description. My father's family moved there in the 30's from S Wales and although my father moved out towards Southend the rest of the family stayed, and I worked around there 1985-2003. There are estates there with NO services; just the houses. It was a "taken for granted" Labour area.
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    AllyMAllyM Posts: 260

    AllyM said:

    Just spoken to someone who lives in an estate that has been visited by a flash mob of Yes supporters. Roads blocked by dozens of vehicles. Kids screaming "yes, yes, yes". She's a proud Scot who said that she is proud to be British when knocked up by them. Was told to "Go back to London". She was shaking with rage at the intimidation. You folks down south have no idea of what it is like up here.

    Well I have plenty of idea what it is like 'up here' having been wandering around Aberdeen today. No sign at all of the idiocy you describe and I am firmly of the opinion that these incidents are very rare and being highlighted by the press to make it seem like it is the norm.

    It isn't and you should stop trying to pretend otherwise.
    I'm from Aberdeen.

    It's a pretty mild place for most things in all honesty. The atmosphere at Pittodrie for Strachan's first game in charge of Scotland was even convivial.
    It is a pretty laid back place. Certainly it is a hell of a lot more friendly than when I first started working up here in the late 80s when it was still a pretty horrible oil town.
    I grew up in Nairn before moving to Aberdeen in the later teens. Still here aged 30.

    I must say I missed the miserable spell you speak of (due to my age I hate to say it!) which others also speak of.

    Now though, it's is its own 'bubble' effect seems to bring calm.

    Except Market Street at closing time. 3am there and it's every man for himself.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,597
    MikeK said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-29223350

    Facebook is trending YES. Can this be the future for polls and pollsters?

    Cases in which social media have been used to track a phenomenon and have failed include:

    a) Using frequency and free text analysis to try to predict US/Canada box office gross. That went wrong last year when it said "White House Down" would be a very big hit. I think this came in too late for "Prometheus" (fantastic pre-release word-of-mouth, underperforming reviews, whoops), which would have been a good check, and I'd like to see what it said for "Edge of Tomorrow" (which had the reverse problem: lousy pre-release but fantastic post-release word-of-mouth)
    b) Using Twitter feeds to track hurricane damage in New Jersey. That went wrong when they realised not everybody has a mobile phone, not everybody tweets, and there's no phone reception in storm-damaged areas.
    c) Using Google wordsearch frequency to track flu incidence. Initially very promising, this has fallen out of favour recently when a flaw was discovered (Google's autopredict skews the figures badly)

    It is a promising area and some people are diving in: I think it's Brighton who are subjecting doctor's notes to free text analysis to see if they can extract meaning from them. We will no doubt see in due course whether it's worthwhile, but 'til then it's partytime.
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    That is a fine looking cat you have there in your new avatar, Mr Hopkins.

    Thanks. His two great joys seem to be (1) jumping on the bed in the morning and saying hello, and (2) scratching furniture when no-one is watching.

    One of these traits is lovely.

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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @FrankBooth
    Difficult question Frank, There are still a lot of people in England devoted to Neo Capitalism.
    A return to the type of Conservatism of the 50's and 60's would make things a whole pile easier, but that is unlikely to happen anytime soon.
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    Just spoken to someone who lives in an estate that has been visited by a flash mob of Yes supporters. Roads blocked by dozens of vehicles. Kids screaming "yes, yes, yes". She's a proud Scot who said that she is proud to be British when knocked up by them. Was told to "Go back to London". She was shaking with rage at the intimidation. You folks down south have no idea of what it is like up here.

    Well I have plenty of idea what it is like 'up here' having been wandering around Aberdeen today. No sign at all of the idiocy you describe and I am firmly of the opinion that these incidents are very rare and being highlighted by the press to make it seem like it is the norm.

    It isn't and you should stop trying to pretend otherwise.
    You may well be right about other places - I can only speak for where I live. And it is a I describe. I can vouch for it and I am not pretending. Your last comment is, frankly, an ignorant insult.
    Your "You folks down south have no idea of what it is like up here." is the real insult and shows you are trying to smear the Yes campaign by painting incredibly rare isolated incidents as if they are the norm.

    It is shameful, malicious and ignorant.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,321
    edited September 2014

    I can't believe I'm saying this but......

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100286613/scottish-independence-the-union-wasnt-strong-enough-to-withstand-one-rogue-poll/

    I agree with Dan. He really is a witty and insightful commentator when he isn't talking about Ed Miliband or predicting next year's general election. Whatever the result tomorrow, Yes win or narrow No - we've got problems. Can they be resolved? Hard to say. Would a true social democratic government in Westminster get Scotland back on board?

    His argument is as panicky as that of the people he criticises for panicking at one poll. That because it has been a hard, desperate fight, there's no hope for the future. A position I can understand, even though I would state that such an outcome is not inevitable, it just means work to resolve the upcoming problems needs to be done very soon and very well. But his signing off about 'if [the union] ever really existed at all' strikes me as absurdly pessimistic, and I'm the glum bugger who was predicting a Yes win when they were down more than 20pts in the polls. Not only is he dismissive of the chances of the union lasting for a long time yet (which is a reasonable position), he seems to give up on the fact of it ever working because this has been a tough contest.

    A hard fight to save the union now shows the union has serious problems even if No wins, and that hard fighting will have to continue. That doesn't mean it cannot be made strong enough to survive or was never really there in the first place, it just means it will be hard to manage that/
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    I have never wanted to be as wrong about anything as I want to be wrong about tomorrow's vote.but i have never been more certain I am right. I just cannot see No winning. Scotland seems to have been enveloped by a fog of delusion, caused by justified anger at the Westminster machine and the outrageous lies of the Yes side. I truly feel for people like DavidL, seeing their country slipping away on the back of a lemming-like rush to self-destruction.
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    AllyMAllyM Posts: 260

    AllyM said:

    Just spoken to someone who lives in an estate that has been visited by a flash mob of Yes supporters. Roads blocked by dozens of vehicles. Kids screaming "yes, yes, yes". She's a proud Scot who said that she is proud to be British when knocked up by them. Was told to "Go back to London". She was shaking with rage at the intimidation. You folks down south have no idea of what it is like up here.

    Well I have plenty of idea what it is like 'up here' having been wandering around Aberdeen today. No sign at all of the idiocy you describe and I am firmly of the opinion that these incidents are very rare and being highlighted by the press to make it seem like it is the norm.

    It isn't and you should stop trying to pretend otherwise.
    I'm from Aberdeen.

    It's a pretty mild place for most things in all honesty. The atmosphere at Pittodrie for Strachan's first game in charge of Scotland was even convivial.
    And the game at Celtic park in November?
    Glasgow has it's own set of rules, for all concerned!
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    FF42FF42 Posts: 114

    AndyJS said:

    Just spoken to someone who lives in an estate that has been visited by a flash mob of Yes supporters. Roads blocked by dozens of vehicles. Kids screaming "yes, yes, yes". She's a proud Scot who said that she is proud to be British when knocked up by them. Was told to "Go back to London". She was shaking with rage at the intimidation. You folks down south have no idea of what it is like up here.

    Unbelievable. And they think this sort of behaviour will help their cause?
    I honestly don't know. Seems counter-productive to me. They seem to think they are a liberation army. But it is really horrible. The SNP have an enormous sense of entitlement, particularly in this part of Scotland. Things have really polarised.
    My wife has no particular emotional attachment to the UK, nor is she especially politically minded. But she is an extremely angry woman right now. She hates being lied to and being made a fool of. She despairs of the violence and intimidation that she lays firmly at the feet of Alex Salmond and which she compares to Nazi Germany
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    HughHugh Posts: 955
    Good cartoon btw!

    Better than that wierd sheep one and the slightly whiffy one about mars bars and bagpipes and whatnot.
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    AllyM said:

    AllyM said:

    Just spoken to someone who lives in an estate that has been visited by a flash mob of Yes supporters. Roads blocked by dozens of vehicles. Kids screaming "yes, yes, yes". She's a proud Scot who said that she is proud to be British when knocked up by them. Was told to "Go back to London". She was shaking with rage at the intimidation. You folks down south have no idea of what it is like up here.

    Well I have plenty of idea what it is like 'up here' having been wandering around Aberdeen today. No sign at all of the idiocy you describe and I am firmly of the opinion that these incidents are very rare and being highlighted by the press to make it seem like it is the norm.

    It isn't and you should stop trying to pretend otherwise.
    I'm from Aberdeen.

    It's a pretty mild place for most things in all honesty. The atmosphere at Pittodrie for Strachan's first game in charge of Scotland was even convivial.
    It is a pretty laid back place. Certainly it is a hell of a lot more friendly than when I first started working up here in the late 80s when it was still a pretty horrible oil town.
    I grew up in Nairn before moving to Aberdeen in the later teens. Still here aged 30.

    I must say I missed the miserable spell you speak of (due to my age I hate to say it!) which others also speak of.

    Now though, it's is its own 'bubble' effect seems to bring calm.

    Except Market Street at closing time. 3am there and it's every man for himself.
    Some of those women are scary as well :-)

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    isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Is this a new politics website? May 2015

    First article is a description of the charming constituency of Thurrock


    http://may2015.com/

    Actually, AFAIR it's a fair description. My father's family moved there in the 30's from S Wales and although my father moved out towards Southend the rest of the family stayed, and I worked around there 1985-2003. There are estates there with NO services; just the houses. It was a "taken for granted" Labour area.
    I know it's at the end of my road!
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    The White House @WhiteHouse · 9m

    The UK is an extraordinary partner for America and a force for good in an unstable world. I hope it remains strong, robust and united. -bo
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    AllyMAllyM Posts: 260

    AllyM said:

    AllyM said:

    Just spoken to someone who lives in an estate that has been visited by a flash mob of Yes supporters. Roads blocked by dozens of vehicles. Kids screaming "yes, yes, yes". She's a proud Scot who said that she is proud to be British when knocked up by them. Was told to "Go back to London". She was shaking with rage at the intimidation. You folks down south have no idea of what it is like up here.

    Well I have plenty of idea what it is like 'up here' having been wandering around Aberdeen today. No sign at all of the idiocy you describe and I am firmly of the opinion that these incidents are very rare and being highlighted by the press to make it seem like it is the norm.

    It isn't and you should stop trying to pretend otherwise.
    I'm from Aberdeen.

    It's a pretty mild place for most things in all honesty. The atmosphere at Pittodrie for Strachan's first game in charge of Scotland was even convivial.
    It is a pretty laid back place. Certainly it is a hell of a lot more friendly than when I first started working up here in the late 80s when it was still a pretty horrible oil town.
    I grew up in Nairn before moving to Aberdeen in the later teens. Still here aged 30.

    I must say I missed the miserable spell you speak of (due to my age I hate to say it!) which others also speak of.

    Now though, it's is its own 'bubble' effect seems to bring calm.

    Except Market Street at closing time. 3am there and it's every man for himself.
    Some of those women are scary as well :-)

    Aye. Very!!
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    isam said:

    Is this a new politics website? May 2015

    First article is a description of the charming constituency of Thurrock


    http://may2015.com/

    Chances are whoever runs the website has posted on PB at some point.
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    HughHugh Posts: 955

    I have never wanted to be as wrong about anything as I want to be wrong about tomorrow's vote.but i have never been more certain I am right. I just cannot see No winning. Scotland seems to have been enveloped by a fog of delusion, caused by justified anger at the Westminster machine and the outrageous lies of the Yes side. I truly feel for people like DavidL, seeing their country slipping away on the back of a lemming-like rush to self-destruction.

    It's not "delusion". It's enthusiasm, realism and optimism.

    It's a breath of fresh air, and it is great to see ordinary folk cause complete turmoil and confusion amongst the rightwing Establishment.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    It's Wednesday. Wait until Friday. If it's relevant then.

    That is what the tory whips are desperately telling their troops.
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    AllyMAllyM Posts: 260
    FF42 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Just spoken to someone who lives in an estate that has been visited by a flash mob of Yes supporters. Roads blocked by dozens of vehicles. Kids screaming "yes, yes, yes". She's a proud Scot who said that she is proud to be British when knocked up by them. Was told to "Go back to London". She was shaking with rage at the intimidation. You folks down south have no idea of what it is like up here.

    Unbelievable. And they think this sort of behaviour will help their cause?
    I honestly don't know. Seems counter-productive to me. They seem to think they are a liberation army. But it is really horrible. The SNP have an enormous sense of entitlement, particularly in this part of Scotland. Things have really polarised.
    My wife has no particular emotional attachment to the UK, nor is she especially politically minded. But she is an extremely angry woman right now. She hates being lied to and being made a fool of. She despairs of the violence and intimidation that she lays firmly at the feet of Alex Salmond and which she compares to Nazi Germany
    My wife is exactly the same.

    I see it as no surprise that woman are looking like sticking to fingers up at independence.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited September 2014
    taffys said:

    We could do with the entertainment.

    Devomax isn;t the problem Anti-Frank.

    'No change' in England is the problem. There is no way the tories will give money and power away without reciprocal powers for England in return. Certainly not to a country where revolutionary socialism is clearly alive and well.

    That is what the leaders of the three main parties are asking. They are insane.

    Whilst I might agree with your sentiment I think there is every chance of more powers being given to the Scottish Parliament and for the WLQ let alone any sort of devolution for England to simply be ignored. Oh, the Conservatives might put some weasel words in their 2015 manifesto, but they won't actually do anything. As for Labour, why would they change from their current position that it would be wrong to have two classes of MP, it has worked for them up until now.

    UKIP will probably be the main beneficiaries of this, but it is unlikely they will be in a position to do anything about it. The fact is under our system of "democracy" it is virtually impossible for the wishes of the majority of the people to overcome the wishes of leaders of the the big two political parties. The public can be furious about something but if the PM doesn't fell like doing something about it then nothing will happen.
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256


    At 300 entries, we are averaging at 48.06% Yes.

    Wisdom? Or herd?

    Friday will tell, but it would be very interesting if YES came in at 48.1%

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    RobCRobC Posts: 398
    edited September 2014
    RobC said:

    DavidL said:

    The Ipsos Mori is enough of a move to have the nerves twanging once again.

    Canvassing in a good area for us tonight focussing on GOTV. Vote extremely solid. Only 1 person switched from no to yes all night for 3 of us. Far, far more don't knows coming to us than to yes, roughly 3:1.

    I don't think we will win Dundee but I hope it will be closer than Yes think.

    To be honest a good No poll may not actually be helpful at this stage despite the nerves it would engender.
    On re-reading my comment it doesn't make sense! My point of course is a poor final poll for No might be better at this late stage as it might encourage a higher turnout of No voters.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,321
    Fun little story:

    A teenager who wrestled a man to the ground after he assaulted two police officers has been recognised for his bravery.

    Kiya Ingham, 16, from Sussex, saw the man push over PCs Lynsey Burkinshaw and Johanna Clarke after they had put him in a police car.


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-sussex-29236252
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    HughHugh Posts: 955
    taffys said:

    It's Wednesday. Wait until Friday. If it's relevant then.

    That is what the tory whips are desperately telling their troops.

    Lol.

    Go Gordon! Saved the world economy, saved the Union, stitched David Cameron up like a Kipper (so to speak).

    A politician you just do not mess with....
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    AllyMAllyM Posts: 260
    RobC said:

    RobC said:

    DavidL said:

    The Ipsos Mori is enough of a move to have the nerves twanging once again.

    Canvassing in a good area for us tonight focussing on GOTV. Vote extremely solid. Only 1 person switched from no to yes all night for 3 of us. Far, far more don't knows coming to us than to yes, roughly 3:1.

    I don't think we will win Dundee but I hope it will be closer than Yes think.

    To be honest a good No poll may not actually be helpful at this stage despite the nerves it would engender.
    On re-reading my comment it doesn't make sense! My point of course is a poor final poll for No might be better at this late stage as it might encourage a higher turnout of No voters.
    I think there is absolute merit in this.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,986

    I have never wanted to be as wrong about anything as I want to be wrong about tomorrow's vote.but i have never been more certain I am right. I just cannot see No winning. Scotland seems to have been enveloped by a fog of delusion, caused by justified anger at the Westminster machine and the outrageous lies of the Yes side. I truly feel for people like DavidL, seeing their country slipping away on the back of a lemming-like rush to self-destruction.

    We are not beaten yet. Have faith. Scots are not stupid. At least more than 50% of them are not.

    Polling station 7-10 then knocking doors. Going to be a long day.
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    Best price:

    Yes 15/4 (Stan James)
    No 1/4 (various)
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    corporeal said:

    MTimT said:

    kle4 said:

    MTimT said:


    In theory, they are bound to vote the way their vote is allocated, but in practice, they could change their vote.

    And as I understand it, this has in fact happened before, although if it had changed the ultimate result by doing so surely it would have been changed by now.
    IIRC, the idea is that, in the event of a 269-269 tie in the EC, there would be referral to the Senate, and if there were a tie there, it would go back to the EC for a 'free vote'. I don't have the time to find the references to cite, and this is from memory.
    No, it would go to the House who vote in state delegations, not as individuals (so you need 26 states, not 218 Representatives). If no-one wins an outright majority, the House keeps voting until someone does.

    You have to remember that when the Constitution was written, in the late 18th century, there had to be sufficient time built into the system to allow delegations to meet in state capitals, vote (using independent judgement as originally envisaged), for those votes to be transferred to Washington and counted, then for the House to assemble and vote if necessary. If would have been impossible to then throw the thing back across the continent the EC.
    I'm sure there's a provision with the House to select the President and the Senate to select the Vice-President, or something of that nature?
    Yes, that's right - though as mentioned earlier, the House votes in state delegations while the senators vote individually. Had Florida been unable to elect EC members in 2000, as could easily have happened, that would produced a right old mess. In the House, the Republicans had 25 states, the Democrats 19, four were tied equally, one (Vermont) Independent but Democrat-leaning (from the left) and one (Virginia) hung with three parties involved. In the Senate, the score was 50-50. It's anyone's guess what might have happened. A Bush-Liebermann outcome wouldn't have been inconceivable.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2014
    Just occurred to me that Salmond should have held the referendum a few months after the next general election rather than a few before, assuming Labour can't win a majority, which is the view of most experts. Then people like Brown wouldn't have been able to tell wavering Scottish voters to look forward to the next Labour government in a few months' time, as he pretty much did today in his speech. Could turn out to be a serious error of judgement by Salmond.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,147
    AndyJS said:

    , assuming Labour can't win a majority, which is the view of most experts.

    "Most experts" ?!
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    Ladbrokes line bet - Yes vote %

    46.5% 10/11 both above and below the line
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    viewcode said:

    MikeK said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-29223350

    Facebook is trending YES. Can this be the future for polls and pollsters?

    b) Using Twitter feeds to track hurricane damage in New Jersey. That went wrong when they realised not everybody has a mobile phone, not everybody tweets, and there's no phone reception in storm-damaged areas.
    It reminds me of just after the boxing day 2004 Tsunami.
    CNN saying along the lines of 'We haven't heard anything from Northern Indonesia so they must be relatively unaffected'

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    Hugh said:

    taffys said:

    It's Wednesday. Wait until Friday. If it's relevant then.

    That is what the tory whips are desperately telling their troops.

    Lol.

    Go Gordon! Saved the world economy, saved the Union, stitched David Cameron up like a Kipper (so to speak).

    A politician you just do not mess with....
    Certainly didn't save the World economy. Just made sure that Britain was worse placed than most to crawl out of the wreckage.

    If he manages to save the union by making promises he doesn't have to keep and that wil never be kept then again history will not judge him well.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,133
    edited September 2014
    Hugh said:

    I have never wanted to be as wrong about anything as I want to be wrong about tomorrow's vote.but i have never been more certain I am right. I just cannot see No winning. Scotland seems to have been enveloped by a fog of delusion, caused by justified anger at the Westminster machine and the outrageous lies of the Yes side. I truly feel for people like DavidL, seeing their country slipping away on the back of a lemming-like rush to self-destruction.

    It's not "delusion". It's enthusiasm, realism and optimism.

    It's a breath of fresh air, and it is great to see ordinary folk cause complete turmoil and confusion amongst the rightwing Establishment.

    There's nothing refreshing about seeing people being lied to about issues that are fundamental to their economic prospects by nationalists whose primary aim is to create an international frontier and divisions. The establishment will be mildly discomfited, some political careers will end, but things will basically carry on as before - except the UK will have been torn asunder and most Scots will have significantly lower living standards. Hilarious!

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    Just spoken to someone who lives in an estate that has been visited by a flash mob of Yes supporters. Roads blocked by dozens of vehicles. Kids screaming "yes, yes, yes". She's a proud Scot who said that she is proud to be British when knocked up by them. Was told to "Go back to London". She was shaking with rage at the intimidation. You folks down south have no idea of what it is like up here.

    Well I have plenty of idea what it is like 'up here' having been wandering around Aberdeen today. No sign at all of the idiocy you describe and I am firmly of the opinion that these incidents are very rare and being highlighted by the press to make it seem like it is the norm.

    It isn't and you should stop trying to pretend otherwise.
    You may well be right about other places - I can only speak for where I live. And it is a I describe. I can vouch for it and I am not pretending. Your last comment is, frankly, an ignorant insult.
    Your "You folks down south have no idea of what it is like up here." is the real insult and shows you are trying to smear the Yes campaign by painting incredibly rare isolated incidents as if they are the norm.

    It is shameful, malicious and ignorant.
    I have done no such thing. I have described what has happened here, in the town where I live. Do you live here? I have no idea what is happening in other parts of the country as I do not live there. You are the one who decided to trade insults. Suggest you leave off.
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,133
    Bazowzer said:

    The White House @WhiteHouse · 9m

    The UK is an extraordinary partner for America and a force for good in an unstable world. I hope it remains strong, robust and united. -bo

    Give Obama his due. For all that nonsense about him being anti-British when he returned the Churchill bust he's done his best to help us.

  • Options
    RobCRobC Posts: 398
    edited September 2014
    Hugh said:

    I have never wanted to be as wrong about anything as I want to be wrong about tomorrow's vote.but i have never been more certain I am right. I just cannot see No winning. Scotland seems to have been enveloped by a fog of delusion, caused by justified anger at the Westminster machine and the outrageous lies of the Yes side. I truly feel for people like DavidL, seeing their country slipping away on the back of a lemming-like rush to self-destruction.

    It's not "delusion". It's enthusiasm, realism and optimism.

    It's a breath of fresh air, and it is great to see ordinary folk cause complete turmoil and confusion amongst the rightwing Establishment.
    It is disappointing to see someone of the left as you are supporting nationalist parties who want to erect unnecessary barriers. Do you also want a peoples revolution taking us out of the EU because your logic says as much?
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Oh, the Conservatives might put some weasel words in their 2015 manifesto, but they won't actually do anything.

    Maybe. For the changes to actually happen though, as I understand it hundreds of conservative MPs will have to troop through the lobbies to give more power and money to socialist Scotland. English conservative MPs.

    I just don;t see them doing that. I see them doing the opposite.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Hugh said:

    I have never wanted to be as wrong about anything as I want to be wrong about tomorrow's vote.but i have never been more certain I am right. I just cannot see No winning. Scotland seems to have been enveloped by a fog of delusion, caused by justified anger at the Westminster machine and the outrageous lies of the Yes side. I truly feel for people like DavidL, seeing their country slipping away on the back of a lemming-like rush to self-destruction.

    It's not "delusion". It's enthusiasm, realism and optimism.

    It's a breath of fresh air, and it is great to see ordinary folk cause complete turmoil and confusion amongst the rightwing Establishment.
    enthusiasm and optimism of more frequent bed partners with delusion than realism
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    Ladbrokes - Turnout

    Over 85% 7/4
    80-85% 2/1
    75-80% 5/2
    70-75% 7/1
    65-70% 20/1
    33 bar
  • Options

    Just spoken to someone who lives in an estate that has been visited by a flash mob of Yes supporters. Roads blocked by dozens of vehicles. Kids screaming "yes, yes, yes". She's a proud Scot who said that she is proud to be British when knocked up by them. Was told to "Go back to London". She was shaking with rage at the intimidation. You folks down south have no idea of what it is like up here.

    Well I have plenty of idea what it is like 'up here' having been wandering around Aberdeen today. No sign at all of the idiocy you describe and I am firmly of the opinion that these incidents are very rare and being highlighted by the press to make it seem like it is the norm.

    It isn't and you should stop trying to pretend otherwise.
    You may well be right about other places - I can only speak for where I live. And it is a I describe. I can vouch for it and I am not pretending. Your last comment is, frankly, an ignorant insult.
    Your "You folks down south have no idea of what it is like up here." is the real insult and shows you are trying to smear the Yes campaign by painting incredibly rare isolated incidents as if they are the norm.

    It is shameful, malicious and ignorant.
    I have done no such thing. I have described what has happened here, in the town where I live. Do you live here? I have no idea what is happening in other parts of the country as I do not live there. You are the one who decided to trade insults. Suggest you leave off.
    Nope. As long as you persist in trying to paint a false impression of what is happening in Scotland I will happily continue to point out your dishonesty. Feel free to say what you see and know. Don't pretend it is symptomatic of the rest of the campaign.
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    DavidL said:

    I have never wanted to be as wrong about anything as I want to be wrong about tomorrow's vote.but i have never been more certain I am right. I just cannot see No winning. Scotland seems to have been enveloped by a fog of delusion, caused by justified anger at the Westminster machine and the outrageous lies of the Yes side. I truly feel for people like DavidL, seeing their country slipping away on the back of a lemming-like rush to self-destruction.

    We are not beaten yet. Have faith. Scots are not stupid. At least more than 50% of them are not.

    Polling station 7-10 then knocking doors. Going to be a long day.
    So, you are calling Yes voters "stupid" now?
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    taffys said:

    It's Wednesday. Wait until Friday. If it's relevant then.

    That is what the tory whips are desperately telling their troops.

    Like many Conservative MPs, you are looking at the world as you would wish it to be, rather than how it is. The option of the union as it was before has gone. The union itself may be going, but the status quo is not an option any more. Scotland is the immediate focus, but the rest of the union will need a full reappraisal. The harrumphing from mostly anonymous backbenchers shows that the average Conservative has not begun to grasp the question.

    I am now fairly sure the Conservatives will lose the next election. The introspection, the lack of focus on vote winning questions and the lack of realism will see them out of power this time next year.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,597

    It reminds me of just after the boxing day 2004 Tsunami. CNN saying along the lines of 'We haven't heard anything from Northern Indonesia so they must be relatively unaffected'

    LOL!

    (This bit is anecdotal and may not be true), In WWII the RAF were concerned about damage inflicted on its aircraft. So it took a badly-damaged Wellington bomber and studied the damage and worked out where to reinforce it. Then somebody gently pointed out to them that they were studying an aircraft that had made it back to England, not one that had been shot down, so they were trying to reinforce the damaged areas that it could survive, not the ones that it couldn't

  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,674
    taffys said:

    Oh, the Conservatives might put some weasel words in their 2015 manifesto, but they won't actually do anything.

    Maybe. For the changes to actually happen though, as I understand it hundreds of conservative MPs will have to troop through the lobbies to give more power and money to socialist Scotland. English conservative MPs.

    I just don;t see them doing that. I see them doing the opposite.

    Of course, the near-term danger of that is that it gifts a bunch of Scottish Conservative-Lib Dem marginals to the LibDems
  • Options
    corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    AndyJS said:

    isam said:

    Is this a new politics website? May 2015

    First article is a description of the charming constituency of Thurrock


    http://may2015.com/

    Chances are whoever runs the website has posted on PB at some point.
    It's the New Statesmen's site.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,321
    edited September 2014

    Just spoken to someone who lives in an estate that has been visited by a flash mob of Yes supporters. Roads blocked by dozens of vehicles. Kids screaming "yes, yes, yes". She's a proud Scot who said that she is proud to be British when knocked up by them. Was told to "Go back to London". She was shaking with rage at the intimidation. You folks down south have no idea of what it is like up here.

    Well I have plenty of idea what it is like 'up here' having been wandering around Aberdeen today. No sign at all of the idiocy you describe and I am firmly of the opinion that these incidents are very rare and being highlighted by the press to make it seem like it is the norm.

    It isn't and you should stop trying to pretend otherwise.
    You may well be right about other places - I can only speak for where I live. And it is a I describe. I can vouch for it and I am not pretending. Your last comment is, frankly, an ignorant insult.
    Your "You folks down south have no idea of what it is like up here." is the real insult and shows you are trying to smear the Yes campaign by painting incredibly rare isolated incidents as if they are the norm.

    It is shameful, malicious and ignorant.
    I have done no such thing. I have described what has happened here, in the town where I live. Do you live here? I have no idea what is happening in other parts of the country as I do not live there. You are the one who decided to trade insults. Suggest you leave off.
    Nope. As long as you persist in trying to paint a false impression of what is happening in Scotland I will happily continue to point out your dishonesty. Feel free to say what you see and know. Don't pretend it is symptomatic of the rest of the campaign.
    How can they be suggesting that when they include the words "in the town that I live" and "I have no idea what is happening in other parts of the country"?

    I don't think such events are part of the norm either, but NorthBriton just stated unequivocally they are speaking about local happenings in that town alone, and even added they cannot say it is happening as a norm everywhere else as they have no way of knowing. What more can be said to clarify they only mean that town?
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098



    That is a fine looking cat you have there in your new avatar, Mr Hopkins.

    Thanks. His two great joys seem to be (1) jumping on the bed in the morning and saying hello, and (2) scratching furniture when no-one is watching.

    One of these traits is lovely.

    And the other trait is just something you have to hope he grows out of. Until he does, if he ever does, you'll just have to get used to a furry Hello every morning. As Herself explained to me many, many years ago, you can have a cat or you can have nice furniture, you cannot have both unless the cat agrees.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    YES into 4.5...
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Scotland is the immediate focus, but the rest of the union will need a full reappraisal.

    It is the three party leaders who are denying the country a full reappraisal, not the tory backbenchers.

    John Redwood has already said the Scots can have devo max if they want. But they in return must accept an English parliament.

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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Andrew Gale of Yorkshire charged with racism for calling Ashwell Prince a "Kolpak"

    http://www.espncricinfo.com/county-cricket-2014/content/current/story/781849.html

    I blame the EU

    http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kolpak_ruling
  • Options

    Just spoken to someone who lives in an estate that has been visited by a flash mob of Yes supporters. Roads blocked by dozens of vehicles. Kids screaming "yes, yes, yes". She's a proud Scot who said that she is proud to be British when knocked up by them. Was told to "Go back to London". She was shaking with rage at the intimidation. You folks down south have no idea of what it is like up here.

    Well I have plenty of idea what it is like 'up here' having been wandering around Aberdeen today. No sign at all of the idiocy you describe and I am firmly of the opinion that these incidents are very rare and being highlighted by the press to make it seem like it is the norm.

    It isn't and you should stop trying to pretend otherwise.
    You may well be right about other places - I can only speak for where I live. And it is a I describe. I can vouch for it and I am not pretending. Your last comment is, frankly, an ignorant insult.
    Your "You folks down south have no idea of what it is like up here." is the real insult and shows you are trying to smear the Yes campaign by painting incredibly rare isolated incidents as if they are the norm.

    It is shameful, malicious and ignorant.
    I have done no such thing. I have described what has happened here, in the town where I live. Do you live here? I have no idea what is happening in other parts of the country as I do not live there. You are the one who decided to trade insults. Suggest you leave off.
    Nope. As long as you persist in trying to paint a false impression of what is happening in Scotland I will happily continue to point out your dishonesty. Feel free to say what you see and know. Don't pretend it is symptomatic of the rest of the campaign.
    You really have a problem comprehending English, don't you. I related an incident here where I live and did not "pretend it is symptomatic of the rest of the campaign." - although some of the reported surveys in the media suggest that a large proportion of No voters do feel intimidated. No doubt they are dishonest too though.
  • Options
    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,878
    edited September 2014
    RodCrosby said:

    YES into 4.5...

    One hour to go (?) before that all important final YouGov poll.
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    saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245

    DavidL said:

    I have never wanted to be as wrong about anything as I want to be wrong about tomorrow's vote.but i have never been more certain I am right. I just cannot see No winning. Scotland seems to have been enveloped by a fog of delusion, caused by justified anger at the Westminster machine and the outrageous lies of the Yes side. I truly feel for people like DavidL, seeing their country slipping away on the back of a lemming-like rush to self-destruction.

    We are not beaten yet. Have faith. Scots are not stupid. At least more than 50% of them are not.

    Polling station 7-10 then knocking doors. Going to be a long day.
    So, you are calling Yes voters "stupid" now?
    How many doors have you knocked on?
  • Options
    perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    antifrank said:

    taffys said:

    It's Wednesday. Wait until Friday. If it's relevant then.

    That is what the tory whips are desperately telling their troops.

    Like many Conservative MPs, you are looking at the world as you would wish it to be, rather than how it is. The option of the union as it was before has gone. The union itself may be going, but the status quo is not an option any more. Scotland is the immediate focus, but the rest of the union will need a full reappraisal. The harrumphing from mostly anonymous backbenchers shows that the average Conservative has not begun to grasp the question.

    I am now fairly sure the Conservatives will lose the next election. The introspection, the lack of focus on vote winning questions and the lack of realism will see them out of power this time next year.
    But the Tories have done well on the economy, welfare and education. Plus a few others I could mention. You obviously don't like to give credit where it's due. Life is difficult. Conservatives know that and try to act accordingly. Individuals will progress if they themselves make an effort. It's a truth socialists try to hide.

  • Options
    kle4 said:

    Just spoken to someone who lives in an estate that has been visited by a flash mob of Yes supporters. Roads blocked by dozens of vehicles. Kids screaming "yes, yes, yes". She's a proud Scot who said that she is proud to be British when knocked up by them. Was told to "Go back to London". She was shaking with rage at the intimidation. You folks down south have no idea of what it is like up here.

    Well I have plenty of idea what it is like 'up here' having been wandering around Aberdeen today. No sign at all of the idiocy you describe and I am firmly of the opinion that these incidents are very rare and being highlighted by the press to make it seem like it is the norm.

    It isn't and you should stop trying to pretend otherwise.
    You may well be right about other places - I can only speak for where I live. And it is a I describe. I can vouch for it and I am not pretending. Your last comment is, frankly, an ignorant insult.
    Your "You folks down south have no idea of what it is like up here." is the real insult and shows you are trying to smear the Yes campaign by painting incredibly rare isolated incidents as if they are the norm.

    It is shameful, malicious and ignorant.
    I have done no such thing. I have described what has happened here, in the town where I live. Do you live here? I have no idea what is happening in other parts of the country as I do not live there. You are the one who decided to trade insults. Suggest you leave off.
    Nope. As long as you persist in trying to paint a false impression of what is happening in Scotland I will happily continue to point out your dishonesty. Feel free to say what you see and know. Don't pretend it is symptomatic of the rest of the campaign.
    How can they be suggesting that when they include the words "in the town that I live" and "I have no idea what is happening in other parts of the country"?

    I don't think such events are part of the norm either, but NorthBriton just stated unequivocally they are speaking about local happenings in that town alone, and even added they cannot say it is happening as a norm everywhere else as they have no way of knowing. What more can be said to clarify they only mean that town?
    That wasn't what he originally said.

    Go back and look at the original posting where he repeated a personal experience and then tried to pretend it was the norm with the phrase "You folks down south have no idea of what it is like up here."

    Trying to backtrack later when he is picked up on it shows he knew what he was doing in the first place.
  • Options

    Just spoken to someone who lives in an estate that has been visited by a flash mob of Yes supporters. Roads blocked by dozens of vehicles. Kids screaming "yes, yes, yes". She's a proud Scot who said that she is proud to be British when knocked up by them. Was told to "Go back to London". She was shaking with rage at the intimidation. You folks down south have no idea of what it is like up here.

    A Friend's father, who served 20 years with a Scottish Regiment, was told yesterday he had no right to a vote and was told to piss off back to England. On the orher hand I witnessed a 'Yes ' stall set up on a main road out of Edinburgh this afternoon. I watched them for about 10 minutes (i was in a car park waitong for someone) and not one person took a leaflet from them and went out of their way to avoid them. Anecdote I know!
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,133


    At 300 entries, we are averaging at 48.06% Yes.

    Wisdom? Or herd?

    Friday will tell, but it would be very interesting if YES came in at 48.1%

    The thing is it is open to everyone. There should be a PB 'experts' panel to give their verdict. I went for for 46.4 I think.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,321

    DavidL said:

    I have never wanted to be as wrong about anything as I want to be wrong about tomorrow's vote.but i have never been more certain I am right. I just cannot see No winning. Scotland seems to have been enveloped by a fog of delusion, caused by justified anger at the Westminster machine and the outrageous lies of the Yes side. I truly feel for people like DavidL, seeing their country slipping away on the back of a lemming-like rush to self-destruction.

    We are not beaten yet. Have faith. Scots are not stupid. At least more than 50% of them are not.

    Polling station 7-10 then knocking doors. Going to be a long day.
    So, you are calling Yes voters "stupid" now?
    Plenty have been making that claim, yes, and in the opposite direction. No voters merely being 'mentally colonized' remains my favourite, if bizarre, condescending appraisal of the opposing side from a member of either side. No insults of the Yes side seem to lack that level of invention, though in terms of viciousness it can be a close call.
  • Options

    Just spoken to someone who lives in an estate that has been visited by a flash mob of Yes supporters. Roads blocked by dozens of vehicles. Kids screaming "yes, yes, yes". She's a proud Scot who said that she is proud to be British when knocked up by them. Was told to "Go back to London". She was shaking with rage at the intimidation. You folks down south have no idea of what it is like up here.

    Well I have plenty of idea what it is like 'up here' having been wandering around Aberdeen today. No sign at all of the idiocy you describe and I am firmly of the opinion that these incidents are very rare and being highlighted by the press to make it seem like it is the norm.

    It isn't and you should stop trying to pretend otherwise.
    You may well be right about other places - I can only speak for where I live. And it is a I describe. I can vouch for it and I am not pretending. Your last comment is, frankly, an ignorant insult.
    Your "You folks down south have no idea of what it is like up here." is the real insult and shows you are trying to smear the Yes campaign by painting incredibly rare isolated incidents as if they are the norm.

    It is shameful, malicious and ignorant.
    I have done no such thing. I have described what has happened here, in the town where I live. Do you live here? I have no idea what is happening in other parts of the country as I do not live there. You are the one who decided to trade insults. Suggest you leave off.
    Nope. As long as you persist in trying to paint a false impression of what is happening in Scotland I will happily continue to point out your dishonesty. Feel free to say what you see and know. Don't pretend it is symptomatic of the rest of the campaign.
    You really have a problem comprehending English, don't you. I related an incident here where I live and did not "pretend it is symptomatic of the rest of the campaign." - although some of the reported surveys in the media suggest that a large proportion of No voters do feel intimidated. No doubt they are dishonest too though.
    "You folks down south have no idea of what it is like up here."

    Your words or not?

    Stop wriggling and admit you were smearing.
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    DavidL said:

    I have never wanted to be as wrong about anything as I want to be wrong about tomorrow's vote.but i have never been more certain I am right. I just cannot see No winning. Scotland seems to have been enveloped by a fog of delusion, caused by justified anger at the Westminster machine and the outrageous lies of the Yes side. I truly feel for people like DavidL, seeing their country slipping away on the back of a lemming-like rush to self-destruction.

    We are not beaten yet. Have faith. Scots are not stupid. At least more than 50% of them are not.

    Polling station 7-10 then knocking doors. Going to be a long day.
    You wearing your Labour NO badge David?

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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    Bazowzer said:

    The White House @WhiteHouse · 9m

    The UK is an extraordinary partner for America and a force for good in an unstable world. I hope it remains strong, robust and united. -bo

    Give Obama his due. For all that nonsense about him being anti-British when he returned the Churchill bust he's done his best to help us.
    What rubbish! Obama has been the most anti British president since Carter. Like him Obama welcomes British help in American inspired conflicts but is not willing reciprocate when we need a bit of support in our national interests.
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    IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Tomorrow, the country I have lived in my entire life, my effectively cease to exist.

    Can't really get my head around it.
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    taffys said:

    Scotland is the immediate focus, but the rest of the union will need a full reappraisal.

    It is the three party leaders who are denying the country a full reappraisal, not the tory backbenchers.

    John Redwood has already said the Scots can have devo max if they want. But they in return must accept an English parliament.

    Do you really think that this week's statements are the end of the story?

    Incidentally, left of centre pundits are fretting about this too. Read Mary Riddell's latest column in the Telegraph or Rafael Behr's column in commentisfree.
  • Options
    IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Whatever the result tomorrow. I am glad turnout will be so high.

    I wish political parties could motivate at a general election to the same extent.
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    DavidL said:

    I have never wanted to be as wrong about anything as I want to be wrong about tomorrow's vote.but i have never been more certain I am right. I just cannot see No winning. Scotland seems to have been enveloped by a fog of delusion, caused by justified anger at the Westminster machine and the outrageous lies of the Yes side. I truly feel for people like DavidL, seeing their country slipping away on the back of a lemming-like rush to self-destruction.

    We are not beaten yet. Have faith. Scots are not stupid. At least more than 50% of them are not.

    Polling station 7-10 then knocking doors. Going to be a long day.
    Good luck! You are not alone.
  • Options
    audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    edited September 2014
    antifrank said:

    taffys said:

    It's Wednesday. Wait until Friday. If it's relevant then.

    That is what the tory whips are desperately telling their troops.


    I am now fairly sure the Conservatives will lose the next election. The introspection, the lack of focus on vote winning questions and the lack of realism will see them out of power this time next year.
    They might be out of power this time next year but it sure as heck won't be for any of those reasons.
  • Options
    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    IOS said:

    Tomorrow, the country I have lived in my entire life, my effectively cease to exist.

    Can't really get my head around it.

    Really? You are quite wrong. Scotland will exist as a soon to be totally independent nation. Nothing will have changed vis your surroundings.

    Took a flyer today and bet £10 on YES; what a wicked devil I am.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,321
    perdix said:

    antifrank said:

    taffys said:

    It's Wednesday. Wait until Friday. If it's relevant then.

    That is what the tory whips are desperately telling their troops.

    Like many Conservative MPs, you are looking at the world as you would wish it to be, rather than how it is. The option of the union as it was before has gone. The union itself may be going, but the status quo is not an option any more. Scotland is the immediate focus, but the rest of the union will need a full reappraisal. The harrumphing from mostly anonymous backbenchers shows that the average Conservative has not begun to grasp the question.

    I am now fairly sure the Conservatives will lose the next election. The introspection, the lack of focus on vote winning questions and the lack of realism will see them out of power this time next year.
    But the Tories have done well on the economy, welfare and education. Plus a few others I could mention. You obviously don't like to give credit where it's due. Life is difficult. Conservatives know that and try to act accordingly. Individuals will progress if they themselves make an effort. It's a truth socialists try to hide.

    Anything good the Tories have achieved is drowned out by the electoral advantages Labour has, UKIP hitting them harder, and the total lack of discipline and unity among Tory ranks. Additionally, I think they've done at least ok on Welfare and Education, but each in a way which has stirred up passionate hatred of them as well, probably cancelling out any electoral gain from it.

    The economy was the only saving grace, but people do not seem to be rewarding the Tories for it picking up at least, and it appears even in No win they will be too concerned with tearing each other to pieces to stay on message.

    They face a weak opposition, but their own weaknesses are preventing hope of largest party status, let along true victory.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    , assuming Labour can't win a majority, which is the view of most experts.

    "Most experts" ?!
    Peter Kellner, Stephen Fisher, etc.
  • Options
    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,404
    IOS said:

    Whatever the result tomorrow. I am glad turnout will be so high.

    I wish political parties could motivate at a general election to the same extent.

    The reason it motivates is every vote counts. Unfortunately, with FPTP, it doesn't and the accountability that links electors and representatives is weak.
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    IOS said:

    Tomorrow, the country I have lived in my entire life, my effectively cease to exist.

    Can't really get my head around it.

    The Yookay is not a country. It is a state.
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    IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Mike K

    As some one who doesn't want to see the break up of the union I am pretty worried. I know it sounds strange, but despite being English I feel a sense of belonging to places like Scotland and Wales.

    I really hope its a No.
  • Options
    perdix said:

    antifrank said:

    taffys said:

    It's Wednesday. Wait until Friday. If it's relevant then.

    That is what the tory whips are desperately telling their troops.

    Like many Conservative MPs, you are looking at the world as you would wish it to be, rather than how it is. The option of the union as it was before has gone. The union itself may be going, but the status quo is not an option any more. Scotland is the immediate focus, but the rest of the union will need a full reappraisal. The harrumphing from mostly anonymous backbenchers shows that the average Conservative has not begun to grasp the question.

    I am now fairly sure the Conservatives will lose the next election. The introspection, the lack of focus on vote winning questions and the lack of realism will see them out of power this time next year.
    But the Tories have done well on the economy, welfare and education. Plus a few others I could mention. You obviously don't like to give credit where it's due. Life is difficult. Conservatives know that and try to act accordingly. Individuals will progress if they themselves make an effort. It's a truth socialists try to hide.

    The Conservatives will not win the next election by focusing on questions the public don't care about (eg the EU). They would stand a chance if they focused on the economy. Today's unemployment figures were superb. But Conservative MPs seem more interested in plotting against David Cameron. That's a certain route to defeat. It's a shame, because Labour look nowhere near oven- ready.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    IOS said:

    Tomorrow, the country I have lived in my entire life, my effectively cease to exist.

    Can't really get my head around it.

    Which country? The uk?

    Until the last week or two I can't remember anyone saying they were from the United Kingdom
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,321
    IOS said:

    Tomorrow, the country I have lived in my entire life, may effectively cease to exist.

    Can't really get my head around it.

    I'm with you on this one. Even worse, I appear to have come down with a bit of the lurgie, meaning feel pretty unable to do anything more strenuous than looking at a screen, so even distracting myself from what is going on will not prove easy.

    It's going to be a rough couple of days, and possibly a heart rending one.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I hope YouGov isn't 50/50. Won't be able to stand the excitement/nervousness.
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    IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Antifrank

    We don't need a separate English parliament. We just need to find a way of making sure Westminster can accommodate English only votes. We also need a massive dose of local government devolution.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    taffys said:

    Oh, the Conservatives might put some weasel words in their 2015 manifesto, but they won't actually do anything.

    Maybe. For the changes to actually happen though, as I understand it hundreds of conservative MPs will have to troop through the lobbies to give more power and money to socialist Scotland. English conservative MPs.

    I just don;t see them doing that. I see them doing the opposite.

    Gosh, Mr. Taffys, your faith in the sense of honour and purpose of backbench conservative MPs is far greater than mine. I'll offer an honest bet with you. If there is a No vote tomorrow (God forbid) £50 to the Ex-Services Mental Welfare Society and a bottle of RidgeView Fizz to the winner that the majority of Conservative MPs will vote for Cameron's Devomax legislation even if it contains nothing about EVEL or any solution to the WLQ. What say you?
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    IOS said:

    Tomorrow, the country I have lived in my entire life, my effectively cease to exist.

    Can't really get my head around it.

    The Yookay is not a country. It is a state.
    That is completely subjective. For many No supporters, a yes vote will result in the effective partition of our country.
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    IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Isam.

    Well whenever I am abroad. I always say I am British. You know meeting people from Europe and elsewhere makes you realise how much Britain is held in high esteem.

    If only we could see it.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,321
    isam said:

    IOS said:

    Tomorrow, the country I have lived in my entire life, my effectively cease to exist.

    Can't really get my head around it.

    Which country? The uk?

    Until the last week or two I can't remember anyone saying they were from the United Kingdom
    That depends on what circles you move in I guess. Of course many of us use Britain as a synonym for the UK, as in TeamGB, excluding the oft forgotten northern Irish.

    And of course UKIP are to be thanked for reminding everyone that they fight for the United Kingdom with their name every time it is spoken or written.
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    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    edited September 2014
    William Hill - Council area with highest No vote %

    Dumfries and Galloway 5/1
    East Renfrewshire 5/1
    South Ayrshire 5/1
    Borders 7/1
    East Dunbartonshire 7/1
    Orkney 9/1
    Shetland 9/1
    Edinburgh 12/1
    Renfrewshire 14/1
    East Lothian 16/1

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    IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Stuart

    Semantics. I feel British. I want to stay that way. But hey. Not my call if Scotland wants to go. All I will say is don't expect a currency Union.

    If you go, you are really on your own. Something, which from your previous posts I would suggest you will actually welcome more so.
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    saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    antifrank said:

    perdix said:

    antifrank said:

    taffys said:

    It's Wednesday. Wait until Friday. If it's relevant then.

    That is what the tory whips are desperately telling their troops.

    Like many Conservative MPs, you are looking at the world as you would wish it to be, rather than how it is. The option of the union as it was before has gone. The union itself may be going, but the status quo is not an option any more. Scotland is the immediate focus, but the rest of the union will need a full reappraisal. The harrumphing from mostly anonymous backbenchers shows that the average Conservative has not begun to grasp the question.

    I am now fairly sure the Conservatives will lose the next election. The introspection, the lack of focus on vote winning questions and the lack of realism will see them out of power this time next year.
    But the Tories have done well on the economy, welfare and education. Plus a few others I could mention. You obviously don't like to give credit where it's due. Life is difficult. Conservatives know that and try to act accordingly. Individuals will progress if they themselves make an effort. It's a truth socialists try to hide.

    The Conservatives will not win the next election by focusing on questions the public don't care about (eg the EU). They would stand a chance if they focused on the economy. Today's unemployment figures were superb. But Conservative MPs seem more interested in plotting against David Cameron. That's a certain route to defeat. It's a shame, because Labour look nowhere near oven- ready.
    Sad but entirely accurate. Some of the more stupid Tories seem too miss the purity of opposition
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    audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    I'm going to call it for Yes.

    I have a feeling the Yes momentum and desire for change has been horribly underestimated by the pollsters.
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    IOS said:

    Tomorrow, the country I have lived in my entire life, my effectively cease to exist.

    Can't really get my head around it.

    I can't get my head around why so few people outside Scotland seem to care.

    I suppose this is what happens when you're the only country in Europe that doesn't teach all its children history in school.
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    Good evening, everyone.

    Rather an odd feeling ahead of this vote. Regardless of the result, rocky times are ahead.
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    IOS said:

    Antifrank

    We don't need a separate English parliament. We just need to find a way of making sure Westminster can accommodate English only votes. We also need a massive dose of local government devolution.

    I'm not a fan of an English Parliament. I basically agree with you on all points.

    What we need is some hard thinking about subsidiarity: at what level do decisions really need to be taken? The answer is only rarely at national level.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,321

    IOS said:

    Tomorrow, the country I have lived in my entire life, my effectively cease to exist.

    Can't really get my head around it.

    The Yookay is not a country. It is a state.
    The meaning of the word country is hardly definitive, like planet or continent. It is often referred to as a country of countries for one. While one could make arguments against that, equally one can argue it is a country without controversy.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,062
    edited September 2014
    Hugh said:

    taffys said:

    It's Wednesday. Wait until Friday. If it's relevant then.

    That is what the tory whips are desperately telling their troops.

    Lol.

    Go Gordon! Saved the world economy, saved the Union, stitched David Cameron up like a Kipper (so to speak).

    A politician you just do not mess with....
    And yet, you've now got brave Sir Ed for May 2015....

    Michael Crick‏@MichaelLCrick·2 mins
    Ed Miliband is not now coming to Edinburgh No rally.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    IOS said:

    Tomorrow, the country I have lived in my entire life, my effectively cease to exist.

    Can't really get my head around it.

    Which country? The uk?

    Until the last week or two I can't remember anyone saying they were from the United Kingdom
    That depends on what circles you move in I guess. Of course many of us use Britain as a synonym for the UK, as in TeamGB, excluding the oft forgotten northern Irish.

    And of course UKIP are to be thanked for reminding everyone that they fight for the United Kingdom with their name every time it is spoken or written.
    Wouldn't even cross my mind to say British, each to their own
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    Is this the views of all Unionists? Of course not. So let's stop painting all Yessers the same when they see/hear of an unpleasant incident.

    http://t.co/TLMcdGvVxn
This discussion has been closed.