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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As we wait for the final YouGov indyref poll Marf gives her take
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http://www.nojam.com/demo/pbindycomp/summary.php
I'm fascinated that even with a large number of wildly differing predictions, we are almost the same (48.02) as all the polls are predicting.
Are we all subconsciously applying our own bias applied to where we think the result will be (based on the polls), therefore on average ending up at the same place?
off topic - tucked into a rather good bottle of red this evening - should I finish it..?
Beeb liveblog
"Police Scotland have confirmed they are investigating a complaint that an electoral counting officer in Edinburgh has made public details of the postal ballots cast in the council area.
No further details have been released. Completed postal votes must be received by local councils before ballots close tomorrow evening at ten o'clock. Edinburgh City Council says just under 90% of the postal ballots it sent out have been returned."
Kidding, it's brilliant
The stupidity of all this is the truth the independence the Scots seek is a chimera. There are very few independent countries - the UK isn't one of them and Scotland won't be one of them either. We pool our sovereignty in key matters through our membership of the UN, NATO and the EU as well as a cat's cradle of other bi-lateral and multi-lateral treaties.
The truth then of the question isn't whether Scotland wants to be independent but simply free of London/England. Exchanging that for economic and political control from Frankfurt and Brussels respectively is the other choice.
Nor can EWNI sit back and allow Scotland to become an economic basket case any more than we could with Ireland in 2010. We contributed billions to both the main bailout and the bailout of Ulster Bank. EWNI would, for all the protestations of some on here, have to prop up Scotland because the financial, social, political and law & order consequences of a Scottish economic collapse are too drastic for an EWNI Government to tolerate.
Politically, Scotland has a number of possible paths IF it becomes independent but the SNP will be diminished if not redundant - it's entirely likely a centre-right grouping and a centre-left grouping will emerge with more extreme parties on either flank (so nothing unusual there).
Can't vote myself but looking forward to tomorrow and personally hoping for a Yes vote.
Whatever happens it is going to be an interesting few years and I can't help but think that a No vote might be more problematic for the politicians in the long run than a Yes vote.
Sorry about the squiggles, trying to divide it into quadrants, showing average 1997 YES (72.5%) and average 2014 Registration (97%)
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/13331381/registration.PNG
Edinburgh and Aberdeen both in the bottom left...
Good for a "NO" vote?
To scots , Depart, I say; and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go.
Because we surely do not want to go through this again, in the next few years if it is a close no vote.
If they still have influence over specific devolved financial arrangements then any other reforms are meaningless. Redwood understands the reality of the issue. There is only one fair and equal solution and that is an English Parliament
Other than that someone should tell Alexander to mind his own f***ing business. Just as the English have no say in Scottish democracy nor should Scots have any say in English affairs!
It won't, and people's resentment at the established Westminster parties will just continue to grow and grow as they'll feel they've be taken for fools.
Will they ever learn?
If they are anything like the nags I bet on, they won't be going anywhere in a hurry.
Time to ditch my avatar ... for now.
Just one possible declaration order of course...
Say the Salisglow Trottofascist Party (STP) engaged in a large scale electoral fraud in Rumbabwe at the independence referendum and added 50,000 extra YES votes. With a close vote that could tip the result.
If the referendum was based instead on an electoral college, this fraud would only affect the election of the representitive in Salisglow (which would probably be from the STP anyway) and pointless to do.
Also an electoral college would mean that support would need to be there nationwide, with a direct vote, a large city can effectively outvote everyone else in a close result that reflects more that city than the country as a whole.
Finally, if the result is VERY close, with an electoral college, you would not face the logistical nightmare of a nationwide recount. Just recounts in constituencies where the electoral college member contest was close.
Do they still have the midnight to 2am "dry" period in Scotland?
Labour would 'address under-funding', says Jones
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-29217832
Stephen Crabb says Welsh tax restrictions could be scrapped
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-29246205
English votes for English laws.
Facebook is trending YES. Can this be the future for polls and pollsters?
http://news.sky.com/story/1334420/scotland-postal-voters-regretting-their-choice
Nope, we are a 24 hour piss up society now.
When I started drinking last orders were at 10pm.
For most states (all except Maine and Nebraska), all the EC votes go to the winning party. So 50,000 ballots tipping the overall state vote in a swing state would have a major impact on the EC vote, and hence the outcome of a Presidential election (though not in either part of Congress).
Also the very common thing that candidates focus their campaigns on constituencies where the electoral college is close while ignoring non-swing areas and so on. (Then gerrymandering etc).
The wisdom of it is rather disputed.
http://www.comres.co.uk/poll-digest/11/margin-of-error-calculator.htm#
Margin of error for the ICM poll putting Yes on 54% was 3.7% (sample=705).
I think....and I might be wrong, that when the extended hours first came in, they had to shut the bar for cleaning at certain times.
First article is a description of the charming constituency of Thurrock
http://may2015.com/
In all seriousness that is concerning to me, but I am sure a Yes supporter will point to an incident involving No supporters. I only wish I could believe there was a shy No surge coming as a result of what you state, but I cannot see it.
The towering, furious, stony silence on the tory back benches is almost palpable. You can almost touch it.
Not for much longer....
Personally I think the best way out of it is a sort of confederation (but with budgetary and financial oversight so as not to do a Euro). But we need to think big. And our politicians are horribly short-termist in their thinking.
At 300 entries, we are averaging at 48.06% Yes.
Wisdom? Or herd?
No sign of trouble here, but later on we are going to drape the balcony of Robbie's flat with Union jacks and put "no" stickers over his yes ones.....
Or not,.. depends on how drunk we get.
It isn't and you should stop trying to pretend otherwise.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ARifiLUKwxA
It's a pretty mild place for most things in all honesty. The atmosphere at Pittodrie for Strachan's first game in charge of Scotland was even convivial.
You have to remember that when the Constitution was written, in the late 18th century, there had to be sufficient time built into the system to allow delegations to meet in state capitals, vote (using independent judgement as originally envisaged), for those votes to be transferred to Washington and counted, then for the House to assemble and vote if necessary. If would have been impossible to then throw the thing back across the continent the EC.
That is a fine looking cat you have there in your new avatar, Mr Hopkins.
Canvassing in a good area for us tonight focussing on GOTV. Vote extremely solid. Only 1 person switched from no to yes all night for 3 of us. Far, far more don't knows coming to us than to yes, roughly 3:1.
I don't think we will win Dundee but I hope it will be closer than Yes think.
Devomax isn;t the problem Anti-Frank.
'No change' in England is the problem. There is no way the tories will give money and power away without reciprocal powers for England in return. Certainly not to a country where revolutionary socialism is clearly alive and well.
That is what the leaders of the three main parties are asking. They are insane.
@And as I understand it, this has in fact happened before, although if it had changed the ultimate result by doing so surely it would have been changed by now.
@MTimT
If electoral college is tied the vote then goes to the House of Representatives not the Senate. If tied their then the Speaker of the House casts the deciding vote.
*lol*
And that someone who really got it, Gordon Brown, has had to step in to try to save a pathetic, grovelling David Cameron's skin
*chortle*
PB Tories, at least, can't say they weren't told a LONG time ago, even though they were "zzz"ing and "braveheart"ing, up until a few short weeks ago.
*falls off cat crying with laughter*
http://www.igmchicago.org/igm-economic-experts-panel/poll-results?SurveyID=SV_bxZQSOkoVPNdke9