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The LDs claim victory in Tiverton & Honiton – politicalbetting.com

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  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 17,159

    Scott_xP said:

    Anyway Boris "greatest electoral asset since the 70s" Johnson isn't going anywhere. He won't resign and it's too soon for another confidence vote. Everything will grind on but it strengthens the case for another vote in the autumn around the privileges Committee findings.

    https://twitter.com/samfr/status/1540174774277750786

    A cabinet resignation or two could still oust him. But it won't.
    If I was a Tory MP I'd just wait until the year's up and see how it's going. At that point it'll close enough to the election to make a reasonable guess as to whether he's likely to win it or not. Right now it's still a little bit hard to call either way.
    Not for me it isn't
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 7,956
    edited June 24
    Foxy said:

    By-election turnout as a % of general election turnout:

    Hartlepool: 74%
    >Tiverton & Honiton: 72%
    Batley & Spen: 71%
    North Shropshire: 68%
    Chesham & Amersham: 68%
    >Wakefield: 61%
    Birmingham Erdington: 51%
    Old Bexley & Sidcup: 48%

    So the low turnout in Wakefield is not out of line with other by-elections. Wakefield only turned out 64% in the GE, so a pretty hard place to motivate the GOTV.

    The Hartlepool figure does show what a remarkable politician Boris is, or was.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,258

    Right but what if after that it's the winter of love

    Can’t believe Rwanda didn’t save the Conservatives. What next? Something even more bonkers or unpleasant?
    https://twitter.com/ayeshahazarika/status/1540185854286626817

    The only place BoZo has left to go is Brexit with a vengeance, and it doesn't work
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,160
    Morning all. A lovely morning it is too, despite very little sleep.

    If the Conservatives keep Boris Johnson, this is what will happen at the General Election. And they will be out of power for at least two terms.

    It's that simple.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 17,089
    It was arguably a good result for Labour supporters who don't want Johnson to be replaced as leader.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,861
    Andy_JS said:

    The Wakefield result probably isn't bad enough for the Tories to bring about a renewed leadership challenge.

    I hope you’re right.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,258
    New Lib Dem MP Richard Foord says Tiverton and Honiton win has "sent a shockwave through British politics".

    "Every day Boris Johnson clings to office, he brings further shame, chaos and neglect," Foord said.


    https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/tiverton-and-honiton-liberal-democrats-conservative-by-election-result
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,160

    Foxy said:

    6K win for Lib Dems! Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa that’s more like it

    Earthquake

    Boris, do one.
    Remainia more a problem for Tory’s by far than leaverstan. After locals and this, that’s unarguable now.
    No, Labour’s performance is good enough.
    The red wall is heading home.

    It’s just overshadowed by the blue wall in full collapse. This is beyond the LD’s wildest dreams.
    No it’s not! They got 1% more than the Torys managed at the GE, in mid term against this background? It’s an awful result for Labour.

    Where are you getting Red Wall coming
    home at GE from this flop?
    Keir is doing “enough”.

    I don’t like him much, and seemingly nobody else does, but he will be next PM barring a Johnson ouster.

    The Tories are sleepwalking to defeat.
    There’s nothing left in the tank. Nothing.

    We can say goodbye to the idea of an early election, too.

    Moon is one of these posters where once
    they’ve made up their mind it’s like talking to
    a brick wall
    The result is very mildly disappointing for Labour. There’s no excitement for Keir and his project. But it’s a good enough win, and importantly I believe it shows that it is over for the Tories.

    The next election is now simply about whether Labour can scrape a majority.

    You can state Fantasy and hopes as much as you want, as much as Horse, Heathener and Roger too. I deal in facts.

    Labour can’t even be confident of holding Wakefield at a GE on this result, with the hand sitters coming back, let alone tougher challenges in the Red Wall - that’s fact. That’s the fact this result screams at us. Far tougher red wall challenges than this at next GE, and they even have fight on to defend this.

    Labour got better Red Wall results than this flop on local election night.

    The polling of the seat gave them a better result than this.

    Tonight was a Labour flop, once it all sinks in.
    No, that is nonsense. The first Lab gain in a by-election in years. Not as spectacular as the LD result in Devon, but this puts Starmer comfortably in Number 10, the only question is whether as minority or majority government.

    Your man Johnson is now a total liability.
    You have it so wrong. J
    I think a little more humility might be in order from the person who assured me the Tories would win T&H.

    I asked you then if you worked for CCHQ. I'm now becoming even more suspicious that you do.

    You're a tory party wonk aren't you?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 32,412
    Heathener said:

    Foxy said:

    6K win for Lib Dems! Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa that’s more like it

    Earthquake

    Boris, do one.
    Remainia more a problem for Tory’s by far than leaverstan. After locals and this, that’s unarguable now.
    No, Labour’s performance is good enough.
    The red wall is heading home.

    It’s just overshadowed by the blue wall in full collapse. This is beyond the LD’s wildest dreams.
    No it’s not! They got 1% more than the Torys managed at the GE, in mid term against this background? It’s an awful result for Labour.

    Where are you getting Red Wall coming
    home at GE from this flop?
    Keir is doing “enough”.

    I don’t like him much, and seemingly nobody else does, but he will be next PM barring a Johnson ouster.

    The Tories are sleepwalking to defeat.
    There’s nothing left in the tank. Nothing.

    We can say goodbye to the idea of an early election, too.

    Moon is one of these posters where once
    they’ve made up their mind it’s like talking to
    a brick wall
    The result is very mildly disappointing for Labour. There’s no excitement for Keir and his project. But it’s a good enough win, and importantly I believe it shows that it is over for the Tories.

    The next election is now simply about whether Labour can scrape a majority.

    You can state Fantasy and hopes as much as you want, as much as Horse, Heathener and Roger too. I deal in facts.

    Labour can’t even be confident of holding Wakefield at a GE on this result, with the hand sitters coming back, let alone tougher challenges in the Red Wall - that’s fact. That’s the fact this result screams at us. Far tougher red wall challenges than this at next GE, and they even have fight on to defend this.

    Labour got better Red Wall results than this flop on local election night.

    The polling of the seat gave them a better result than this.

    Tonight was a Labour flop, once it all sinks in.
    No, that is nonsense. The first Lab gain in a by-election in years. Not as spectacular as the LD result in Devon, but this puts Starmer comfortably in Number 10, the only question is whether as minority or majority government.

    Your man Johnson is now a total liability.
    You have it so wrong. J
    I think a little more humility might be in order from the person who assured me the Tories would win T&H.

    I asked you then if you worked for CCHQ. I'm now becoming even more suspicious that you do.

    You're a tory party wonk aren't you?
    No, I don't think so, but her claim to be an LD is not very plausible. I have never met an LD who sings Johnsons praises.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,020
    edited June 24
    Scott_xP said:

    Right but what if after that it's the winter of love

    Can’t believe Rwanda didn’t save the Conservatives. What next? Something even more bonkers or unpleasant?
    https://twitter.com/ayeshahazarika/status/1540185854286626817

    The only place BoZo has left to go is Brexit with a vengeance, and it doesn't work
    Reactionary grievance is a political tool not a magic wand. They're not going to run out of ways the world might change that old people find worrying.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,750
    Andy_JS said:

    The Wakefield result probably isn't bad enough for the Tories to bring about a renewed leadership challenge.

    No, but T&H certainly is.

    Big Dog has become a mangy cur.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,750

    Scott_xP said:

    Anyway Boris "greatest electoral asset since the 70s" Johnson isn't going anywhere. He won't resign and it's too soon for another confidence vote. Everything will grind on but it strengthens the case for another vote in the autumn around the privileges Committee findings.

    https://twitter.com/samfr/status/1540174774277750786

    A cabinet resignation or two could still oust him. But it won't.
    If I was a Tory MP I'd just wait until the year's up and see how it's going. At that point it'll close enough to the election to make a reasonable guess as to whether he's likely to win it or not. Right now it's still a little bit hard to call either way.
    The electorate will judge such pusillanimity.

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,861
    Scott_xP said:

    The Tory chairman has been pushing the culture wars hard. Voices calling for the party to change tack will no doubt get louder now.
    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1540184661808369664
    https://twitter.com/DPMcBride/status/1540184129194557440

    The Tories don’t need culture wars, they need a competent front bench.

    Shame the internal party culture is to reward idiocy and punish proficiency, because the hardest thing to change in any organisation is ingrained culture.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,160
    Heathener said:

    Mornin' all.

    Tiverton & Honiton is going to be a thumping LibDem win.

    It will send a shockwave and probably hasten the end of Boris Johnson.

    Heathener said:

    By the way, I'm sure this has been picked up but re. the last thread, this might not even rank in the Top 10 by-election swings? The LibDems need, by my reckoning, a 22% swing and I think they will have a swing of 30%+

    It's going to be big but here are the list of record swings:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_by-election_records#Largest_swings

    Heathener said:

    Good morning.

    I suspect a lot of you, and the markets, are going to be surprised at the size of the LibDem win in Tiverton & Honiton.

    MarqueeMark very rudely dismissed my suggestions, but people are really angry. The likes of Tokyo Edmund and UAE Sandpit don't get it because they aren't here.

    The latest SavantaComRes has Labour 11% ahead and with tactical voting the Conservatives are heading for a crushing General Election defeat. Removing Johnson may help but it may already be too late.

    1992-7 Redux.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,750
    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    Foxy said:

    6K win for Lib Dems! Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa that’s more like it

    Earthquake

    Boris, do one.
    Remainia more a problem for Tory’s by far than leaverstan. After locals and this, that’s unarguable now.
    No, Labour’s performance is good enough.
    The red wall is heading home.

    It’s just overshadowed by the blue wall in full collapse. This is beyond the LD’s wildest dreams.
    No it’s not! They got 1% more than the Torys managed at the GE, in mid term against this background? It’s an awful result for Labour.

    Where are you getting Red Wall coming
    home at GE from this flop?
    Keir is doing “enough”.

    I don’t like him much, and seemingly nobody else does, but he will be next PM barring a Johnson ouster.

    The Tories are sleepwalking to defeat.
    There’s nothing left in the tank. Nothing.

    We can say goodbye to the idea of an early election, too.

    Moon is one of these posters where once
    they’ve made up their mind it’s like talking to
    a brick wall
    The result is very mildly disappointing for Labour. There’s no excitement for Keir and his project. But it’s a good enough win, and importantly I believe it shows that it is over for the Tories.

    The next election is now simply about whether Labour can scrape a majority.

    You can state Fantasy and hopes as much as you want, as much as Horse, Heathener and Roger too. I deal in facts.

    Labour can’t even be confident of holding Wakefield at a GE on this result, with the hand sitters coming back, let alone tougher challenges in the Red Wall - that’s fact. That’s the fact this result screams at us. Far tougher red wall challenges than this at next GE, and they even have fight on to defend this.

    Labour got better Red Wall results than this flop on local election night.

    The polling of the seat gave them a better result than this.

    Tonight was a Labour flop, once it all sinks in.
    No, that is nonsense. The first Lab gain in a by-election in years. Not as spectacular as the LD result in Devon, but this puts Starmer comfortably in Number 10, the only question is whether as minority or majority government.

    Your man Johnson is now a total liability.
    You have it so wrong. J
    I think a little more humility might be in order from the person who assured me the Tories would win T&H.

    I asked you then if you worked for CCHQ. I'm now becoming even more suspicious that you do.

    You're a tory party wonk aren't you?
    No, I don't think so, but her claim to be an LD is not very plausible. I have never met an LD who sings Johnsons praises.
    It’s a broad church. :wink:
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,865
    Time for Con to get rid of Boris the loser!
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,160
    The Telegraph are in no doubt:

    Tories lose Tiverton and Wakefield in worst by-election defeat in history

    Conservatives surrender West Yorkshire seat as voters turn their backs on Boris Johnson after No 10 scandals
    The Liberal Democrats have landed the biggest by-election win in British history to seize Tiverton and Honiton and plunge Boris Johnson’s leadership deeper into crisis.

    On a balmy night in south Devon, their candidate Richard Foord, a former army major, wiped out a colossal 24,239 majority to win a seat the Tories had held ever since its creation in 1997.

    His victory will send shockwaves through the Government and is only set to increase pressure on the Prime Minister from his own restless backbench MPs.

    It is the biggest ever lead to be overturned in a UK by-election. The record was held by Labour, which toppled a 23,927 Tory majority in Liverpool Wavertree in 1935.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/06/24/byelection-2022-results-wakefield-tiverton-tories-lose/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,750
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Mornin' all.

    Tiverton & Honiton is going to be a thumping LibDem win.

    It will send a shockwave and probably hasten the end of Boris Johnson.

    Heathener said:

    By the way, I'm sure this has been picked up but re. the last thread, this might not even rank in the Top 10 by-election swings? The LibDems need, by my reckoning, a 22% swing and I think they will have a swing of 30%+

    It's going to be big but here are the list of record swings:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_by-election_records#Largest_swings

    Heathener said:

    Good morning.

    I suspect a lot of you, and the markets, are going to be surprised at the size of the LibDem win in Tiverton & Honiton.

    MarqueeMark very rudely dismissed my suggestions, but people are really angry. The likes of Tokyo Edmund and UAE Sandpit don't get it because they aren't here.

    The latest SavantaComRes has Labour 11% ahead and with tactical voting the Conservatives are heading for a crushing General Election defeat. Removing Johnson may help but it may already be too late.

    1992-7 Redux.
    I’d be very interested to hear @MarqueeMark ’s reaction.
    He is a shrewd observer of his party.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,020
    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Anyway Boris "greatest electoral asset since the 70s" Johnson isn't going anywhere. He won't resign and it's too soon for another confidence vote. Everything will grind on but it strengthens the case for another vote in the autumn around the privileges Committee findings.

    https://twitter.com/samfr/status/1540174774277750786

    A cabinet resignation or two could still oust him. But it won't.
    If I was a Tory MP I'd just wait until the year's up and see how it's going. At that point it'll close enough to the election to make a reasonable guess as to whether he's likely to win it or not. Right now it's still a little bit hard to call either way.
    The electorate will judge such pusillanimity.

    Will they? Like, imagine it's looking pretty bad in June, 2023, Boris is involved in a new instance of wrongdoing (they show no signs of running out) and he's unceremoniously dumped and replaced by - I dunno - Liz Truss. The government looks temporarily refreshed and invigorated and she makes a big thing about cleaning up conflicts of interest and the other bits of minor corruption and announces something interesting and popular like bringing back horses.

    Are the voters really going to treat the resulting government differently because they got to that point after 4 years of Boris Johnson instead of 3?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,908
    Nigelb said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The Wakefield result probably isn't bad enough for the Tories to bring about a renewed leadership challenge.

    No, but T&H certainly is.

    Big Dog has become a mangy cur.
    It might be the other way round. Consider two different classes of Conservative MP — it might be easier for blue wall Tories to dismiss Tiverton & Honiton as a typical LibDem by-election win that will not carry over to a general election; red wall Tories are surely more likely to see the Wakefield result as an existential threat to their own seats as voters return to Labour.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 32,412
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Mornin' all.

    Tiverton & Honiton is going to be a thumping LibDem win.

    It will send a shockwave and probably hasten the end of Boris Johnson.

    Heathener said:

    By the way, I'm sure this has been picked up but re. the last thread, this might not even rank in the Top 10 by-election swings? The LibDems need, by my reckoning, a 22% swing and I think they will have a swing of 30%+

    It's going to be big but here are the list of record swings:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_by-election_records#Largest_swings

    Heathener said:

    Good morning.

    I suspect a lot of you, and the markets, are going to be surprised at the size of the LibDem win in Tiverton & Honiton.

    MarqueeMark very rudely dismissed my suggestions, but people are really angry. The likes of Tokyo Edmund and UAE Sandpit don't get it because they aren't here.

    The latest SavantaComRes has Labour 11% ahead and with tactical voting the Conservatives are heading for a crushing General Election defeat. Removing Johnson may help but it may already be too late.

    1992-7 Redux.
    Not quite, Starmer doesn't have the charismatic following that Blair had in the mid nineties. In some ways that is a good thing, Charisma and personality cults are things to be wary of in politicians. Usually they are a marker of a charlatan.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,908
    GIN1138 said:

    Time for Con to get rid of Boris the loser!

    Boris 1.19 to be Prime Minister for the 2022 Conservative conference (scheduled for 2-5 October).
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.191504418
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 17,089
    Nigelb said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The Wakefield result probably isn't bad enough for the Tories to bring about a renewed leadership challenge.

    No, but T&H certainly is.

    Big Dog has become a mangy cur.
    Technically that's true, but the Tories will look at a 6,000 LD majority in Tiverton and think we can win this back without too many problems. Wakefield is the seat that will be an important marginal at the general election.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,750
    edited June 24

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Anyway Boris "greatest electoral asset since the 70s" Johnson isn't going anywhere. He won't resign and it's too soon for another confidence vote. Everything will grind on but it strengthens the case for another vote in the autumn around the privileges Committee findings.

    https://twitter.com/samfr/status/1540174774277750786

    A cabinet resignation or two could still oust him. But it won't.
    If I was a Tory MP I'd just wait until the year's up and see how it's going. At that point it'll close enough to the election to make a reasonable guess as to whether he's likely to win it or not. Right now it's still a little bit hard to call either way.
    The electorate will judge such pusillanimity.

    Will they? Like, imagine it's looking pretty bad in June, 2023, Boris is involved in a new instance of wrongdoing (they show no signs of running out) and he's unceremoniously dumped and replaced by - I dunno - Liz Truss. The government looks temporarily refreshed and invigorated and she makes a big thing about cleaning up conflicts of interest and the other bits of minor corruption and announces something interesting and popular like bringing back horses.

    Are the voters really going to treat the resulting government differently because they got to that point after 4 years of Boris Johnson instead of 3?
    Folk are not going to look at it like that.
    Another year of Boris has to be lived through, with all the continuing humiliations that it’s likely to entail for his party. A tactical substitution in extra time just looks like more cynicism.

    And “I dunno” speaks volumes.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,160
    edited June 24
    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Mornin' all.

    Tiverton & Honiton is going to be a thumping LibDem win.

    It will send a shockwave and probably hasten the end of Boris Johnson.

    Heathener said:

    By the way, I'm sure this has been picked up but re. the last thread, this might not even rank in the Top 10 by-election swings? The LibDems need, by my reckoning, a 22% swing and I think they will have a swing of 30%+

    It's going to be big but here are the list of record swings:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_by-election_records#Largest_swings

    Heathener said:

    Good morning.

    I suspect a lot of you, and the markets, are going to be surprised at the size of the LibDem win in Tiverton & Honiton.

    MarqueeMark very rudely dismissed my suggestions, but people are really angry. The likes of Tokyo Edmund and UAE Sandpit don't get it because they aren't here.

    The latest SavantaComRes has Labour 11% ahead and with tactical voting the Conservatives are heading for a crushing General Election defeat. Removing Johnson may help but it may already be too late.

    1992-7 Redux.
    Not quite, Starmer doesn't have the charismatic following that Blair had in the mid nineties. In some ways that is a good thing, Charisma and personality cults are things to be wary of in politicians. Usually they are a marker of a charlatan.
    Ya, probably true, but don't forget that for the first two years of the 1992-7 parliament Labour was led by someone very similar to Keir Starmer: John Smith.

    Tony Blair didn't become leader until July 1994

    Labour's 11% poll lead yesterday together with tactical voting in both red wall and safe blue is the writing on the wall.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,861
    edited June 24
    JACK_W said:

    Jack W(rap)

    Wakefield - Decent Labour result hampered by solid showing from two independents (Shame David Herdson didn't retain his deposit) Generally Labour doesn't do Orpington in by-elections. Red Wall Tories will be feeling much more uncomfortable this morning.

    T&H - Spectacular yellow peril win that will have many Tories in the south west clutching their pearls, drawing up their skirts and contemplating their post parliamentary careers. The LibDems are fully back in the West Country.

    Overall the two words that will haunt the Tories - Tactical Voting.

    Good summary.

    The two words haunting the Scottish Tories are - Tactical Unwind. In the Post-Ruth-Davidson-Party era, gey few SLab and SLD voters will be putting their crosses in the blue box.

    I think Starmer’s rank cowardice over the strikes is depressing the Labour vote. By all means oppose union extremism, but looking at the merits, this round of strikes is entirely justified.

    The local elections were in retrospect a warning sign for Labour: +22 councillors net in England is so pathetic you are nearly lost for words. Mid-term against the most useless government in living memory.

    Terrific Lib Dem performance. They need to keep up the momentum by getting into the media with some persuasive voices. Then looks at Lib Dem front bench… oh dear! They desperately need new blood. They will likely get that now as membership numbers tick up.

    (The David Herdson result is very poor. I think that YP brand is a dead end.)
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 1,939
    Andy_JS said:

    Tiverton & Honiton

    LD 22,563
    Con 16,393
    Lab 1,562
    Green 1,064
    Reform UK 481
    UKIP 241
    Heritage 167
    For Britain 146

    LD maj = 6,170


    LD: 52.9% (+38.1)
    Con: 38.5% (-21.7)
    Lab: 3.7% (-15.9)
    Grn: 2.5% (-1.3)
    Reform UK: 1.1% (+1.1)
    UKIP: 0.6% (-1.1)


    Decline in labour share > difference between Con & LD
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 32,412
    Nigelb said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Mornin' all.

    Tiverton & Honiton is going to be a thumping LibDem win.

    It will send a shockwave and probably hasten the end of Boris Johnson.

    Heathener said:

    By the way, I'm sure this has been picked up but re. the last thread, this might not even rank in the Top 10 by-election swings? The LibDems need, by my reckoning, a 22% swing and I think they will have a swing of 30%+

    It's going to be big but here are the list of record swings:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_by-election_records#Largest_swings

    Heathener said:

    Good morning.

    I suspect a lot of you, and the markets, are going to be surprised at the size of the LibDem win in Tiverton & Honiton.

    MarqueeMark very rudely dismissed my suggestions, but people are really angry. The likes of Tokyo Edmund and UAE Sandpit don't get it because they aren't here.

    The latest SavantaComRes has Labour 11% ahead and with tactical voting the Conservatives are heading for a crushing General Election defeat. Removing Johnson may help but it may already be too late.

    1992-7 Redux.
    I’d be very interested to hear @MarqueeMark ’s reaction.
    He is a shrewd observer of his party.
    Though his canvassing reports from T and H were not borne out by the result. Activists do inevitably talk up their own party but even so his were either a misrepresentation or were self delusion. A numpty for a Tory candidate didn't help I suppose.

    Well done Heathener, I thought T and H too ambitious for the LDs.. I won on Wakefield turnout, T and H Tory share, and Akbar for 3rd place, but lost on Tories holding T and H, and Greens in 3rd in Wakefield. Overall pretty even on the night betting wise, and delighted politically.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 732

    Scott_xP said:

    Right now it's still a little bit hard to call either way.

    It really isn't
    I mean the polls are looking pretty Ed-Milliband-ish, Labour's leader is acceptable but not wildly loved, they just got a decent swing in a by-election but not a monster one, there are some economic problems that may well be temporary. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    Big differences though, say what you like about Osborne and Cameron, and I thought it was economically bad even though politically clever, but they had a plan to cut early and then loosen things near a GE, escaped a full on recession that many think is on the cards now. Can the same be said of the current Tories? There's little doubt there'll be tax cuts but enough to alleviate the "are you better off?" question? These problems don't look temporary - inflation isn't going away yet, energy costs likely to hit harder this winter, certainly not enough for people to feel better off by 2024. Boris is much more unpopular than Cameron - particularly with a now key demographic of liberal conservative voters who stuck with the party in 2019 in part thanks to Corbyn but are pretty disgusted by the culture war direction of the Tories. Starmer, though far from perfect, is also in a significantly better personal polling place than Ed M - unloved, but not hated or regarded as a joke - as is issue polling where Labour are no longer always miles behind on the economy, etc.

    A big one though is that Lib Dem and Labour parties and voters aren't at odds for the first time probably since 2001. What got Cameron his majority in 2015 was the collapse of the Lib Dems as Tory-leaning voters ditched them as pointless, and left-leaning ones refused to vote for a party that had aligned itself against them. Signs are that's reversing as left-wingers just want the Tories out and opposing Brexit may have washed away some sins, and can play opposition politics to attract more right-wing ones. A moderate improvement on Ed Miliband then for Labour, plus a few inroads in Scotland, would probably be enough to unseat an uncoalitionable Conservative Party.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,750

    Nigelb said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The Wakefield result probably isn't bad enough for the Tories to bring about a renewed leadership challenge.

    No, but T&H certainly is.

    Big Dog has become a mangy cur.
    It might be the other way round. Consider two different classes of Conservative MP — it might be easier for blue wall Tories to dismiss Tiverton & Honiton as a typical LibDem by-election win that will not carry over to a general election; red wall Tories are surely more likely to see the Wakefield result as an existential threat to their own seats as voters return to Labour.
    The largest numerical majority ever overturned (I think) at a by election is not quite a typical result.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,020
    edited June 24
    Heathener said:


    MarqueeMark very rudely dismissed my suggestions, but people are really angry. The likes of Tokyo Edmund and UAE Sandpit don't get it because they aren't here.

    The latest SavantaComRes has Labour 11% ahead and with tactical voting the Conservatives are heading for a crushing General Election defeat. Removing Johnson may help but it may already be too late.

    1992-7 Redux.

    I may definitely be missing something from not being able to feel the general vibe on the streets, but equally sometimes the distance helps you remain objective.

    Not very long ago the consensus of people here feeling the anger on the ground seemed to be that Boris Johnson was clearly going to get removed by his party over the thing with the parties, while more disinterested people thought it was only a medium-sized scandal and maybe the Tories could keep calm and carry on. Now the rebels have taken their shot and he's still there.

    The objective signs are simply not looking like 1992-7. If you had nothing to go on except the data, you'd say it's a regular mildly unpopular mid-term government that might recover or might lose. If you think it's 1992-7, you need to explain why the polling isn't looking like 1992-7, and neither are the by-election swings.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,750
    Andy_JS said:

    Nigelb said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The Wakefield result probably isn't bad enough for the Tories to bring about a renewed leadership challenge.

    No, but T&H certainly is.

    Big Dog has become a mangy cur.
    Technically that's true, but the Tories will look at a 6,000 LD majority in Tiverton and think we can win this back without too many problems. Wakefield is the seat that will be an important marginal at the general election.
    Perhaps they will also be looking at their more marginal southern seats as.well, and wondering about them ?
    Though I’ll grant it’s possible that they’re too stupid to see in front of their noses.

    The point is they are facing a double squeeze, and Boris continuing will guarantee that continues.
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 523
    BBC - Oliver Dowden resigns
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 29,844
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Mornin' all.

    Tiverton & Honiton is going to be a thumping LibDem win.

    It will send a shockwave and probably hasten the end of Boris Johnson.

    Heathener said:

    By the way, I'm sure this has been picked up but re. the last thread, this might not even rank in the Top 10 by-election swings? The LibDems need, by my reckoning, a 22% swing and I think they will have a swing of 30%+

    It's going to be big but here are the list of record swings:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_by-election_records#Largest_swings

    Heathener said:

    Good morning.

    I suspect a lot of you, and the markets, are going to be surprised at the size of the LibDem win in Tiverton & Honiton.

    MarqueeMark very rudely dismissed my suggestions, but people are really angry. The likes of Tokyo Edmund and UAE Sandpit don't get it because they aren't here.

    The latest SavantaComRes has Labour 11% ahead and with tactical voting the Conservatives are heading for a crushing General Election defeat. Removing Johnson may help but it may already be too late.

    1992-7 Redux.
    If you don't want people to be rude to you, don't be rude to others.

    I also doubt that you get much more of a 'vibe' than them. How much do you travel to different parts of the country? Talk to different people? How much are you willing to open your ears to points of view that are not in line with your own?

    I don't like this: "you're not here, you don't know" attitude.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,108
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    Foxy said:

    6K win for Lib Dems! Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa that’s more like it

    Earthquake

    Boris, do one.
    Remainia more a problem for Tory’s by far than leaverstan. After locals and this, that’s unarguable now.
    No, Labour’s performance is good enough.
    The red wall is heading home.

    It’s just overshadowed by the blue wall in full collapse. This is beyond the LD’s wildest dreams.
    No it’s not! They got 1% more than the Torys managed at the GE, in mid term against this background? It’s an awful result for Labour.

    Where are you getting Red Wall coming
    home at GE from this flop?
    Keir is doing “enough”.

    I don’t like him much, and seemingly nobody else does, but he will be next PM barring a Johnson ouster.

    The Tories are sleepwalking to defeat.
    There’s nothing left in the tank. Nothing.

    We can say goodbye to the idea of an early election, too.

    Moon is one of these posters where once
    they’ve made up their mind it’s like talking to
    a brick wall
    The result is very mildly disappointing for Labour. There’s no excitement for Keir and his project. But it’s a good enough win, and importantly I believe it shows that it is over for the Tories.

    The next election is now simply about whether Labour can scrape a majority.

    You can state Fantasy and hopes as much as you want, as much as Horse, Heathener and Roger too. I deal in facts.

    Labour can’t even be confident of holding Wakefield at a GE on this result, with the hand sitters coming back, let alone tougher challenges in the Red Wall - that’s fact. That’s the fact this result screams at us. Far tougher red wall challenges than this at next GE, and they even have fight on to defend this.

    Labour got better Red Wall results than this flop on local election night.

    The polling of the seat gave them a better result than this.

    Tonight was a Labour flop, once it all sinks in.
    No, that is nonsense. The first Lab gain in a by-election in years. Not as spectacular as the LD result in Devon, but this puts Starmer comfortably in Number 10, the only question is whether as minority or majority government.

    Your man Johnson is now a total liability.
    You have it so wrong. J
    I think a little more humility might be in order from the person who assured me the Tories would win T&H.

    I asked you then if you worked for CCHQ. I'm now becoming even more suspicious that you do.

    You're a tory party wonk aren't you?
    No, I don't think so, but her claim to be an LD is not very plausible. I have never met an LD who sings Johnsons praises.
    It’s a broad church. :wink:
    Not that broad!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 32,412
    JACK_W said:

    Jack W(rap)

    Wakefield - Decent Labour result hampered by solid showing from two independents (Shame David Herdson didn't retain his deposit) Generally Labour doesn't do Orpington in by-elections. Red Wall Tories will be feeling much more uncomfortable this morning.

    T&H - Spectacular yellow peril win that will have many Tories in the south west clutching their pearls, drawing up their skirts and contemplating their post parliamentary careers. The LibDems are fully back in the West Country.

    Overall the two words that will haunt the Tories - Tactical Voting.

    Yes, I agree with the summary. T and H it seems is now in the history books as the biggest by-election win in terms of overcoming a majority. Lots of those blue shire seats could flip with a bit of tactical voting.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,861
    MJW said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Right now it's still a little bit hard to call either way.

    It really isn't
    I mean the polls are looking pretty Ed-Milliband-ish, Labour's leader is acceptable but not wildly loved, they just got a decent swing in a by-election but not a monster one, there are some economic problems that may well be temporary. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    Big differences though, say what you like about Osborne and Cameron, and I thought it was economically bad even though politically clever, but they had a plan to cut early and then loosen things near a GE, escaped a full on recession that many think is on the cards now. Can the same be said of the current Tories? There's little doubt there'll be tax cuts but enough to alleviate the "are you better off?" question? These problems don't look temporary - inflation isn't going away yet, energy costs likely to hit harder this winter, certainly not enough for people to feel better off by 2024. Boris is much more unpopular than Cameron - particularly with a now key demographic of liberal conservative voters who stuck with the party in 2019 in part thanks to Corbyn but are pretty disgusted by the culture war direction of the Tories. Starmer, though far from perfect, is also in a significantly better personal polling place than Ed M - unloved, but not hated or regarded as a joke - as is issue polling where Labour are no longer always miles behind on the economy, etc.

    A big one though is that Lib Dem and Labour parties and voters aren't at odds for the first time probably since 2001. What got Cameron his majority in 2015 was the collapse of the Lib Dems as Tory-leaning voters ditched them as pointless, and left-leaning ones refused to vote for a party that had aligned itself against them. Signs are that's reversing as left-wingers just want the Tories out and opposing Brexit may have washed away some sins, and can play opposition politics to attract more right-wing ones. A moderate improvement on Ed Miliband then for Labour, plus a few inroads in Scotland, would probably be enough to unseat an uncoalitionable Conservative Party.
    Good summary.

    On current polling, “a few” inroads is all Starmer and Sarwar are going to manage in Scotland, if that.

    The last full-sample Scottish poll had Labour on just 22%, and although the latest YouGov sub-sample had them on 29%, that would only gain them a handful of SNP seats.

    Last 3 YouGov polls, the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples:

    Voting intention - Scotland
    Reverse chronological order
    (+/- change from last UK GE)

    SNP 40 49 48 average 46% (+1)
    SLab 29 16 18 average 21% (+2)
    SCon 17 21 18 average 19% (-6)
    SLD 6 8 10 average 8% (-2)
    Grn 3 4 5 average 4% (+3)
    Ref 3 0 1 average 1% (-)
    oth (primarily Alba) 2 3 1 average 2% (+1)

    Yes parties 52% (+5)
    No parties 49% (-4)

    We desperately need some proper, full-sample polling.
    We got one for Wales the other day, but no Scottish polling in ages. Why?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,908
    JACK_W said:

    BBC - Oliver Dowden resigns

    Deputy heads will roll. Will Dowden quitting as party chair mean an end to culture wars? I doubt it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,750
    JACK_W said:

    BBC - Oliver Dowden resigns

    Falling on his sword, rather than a shot at the leader.
    https://twitter.com/OliverDowden/status/1540191893258207232

    It ought to shame the mangy cur, but it won’t.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,861
    Scott_xP said:

    Right but what if after that it's the winter of love

    Can’t believe Rwanda didn’t save the Conservatives. What next? Something even more bonkers or unpleasant?
    https://twitter.com/ayeshahazarika/status/1540185854286626817

    The only place BoZo has left to go is Brexit with a vengeance, and it doesn't work
    Nuclear war might take the voters minds off Partygate?
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 523

    JACK_W said:

    Jack W(rap)

    Wakefield - Decent Labour result hampered by solid showing from two independents (Shame David Herdson didn't retain his deposit) Generally Labour doesn't do Orpington in by-elections. Red Wall Tories will be feeling much more uncomfortable this morning.

    T&H - Spectacular yellow peril win that will have many Tories in the south west clutching their pearls, drawing up their skirts and contemplating their post parliamentary careers. The LibDems are fully back in the West Country.

    Overall the two words that will haunt the Tories - Tactical Voting.

    Good summary.

    The two words haunting the Scottish Tories are - Tactical Unwind. In the Post-Ruth-Davidson-Party era, gey few SLab and SLD voters will be putting their crosses in the blue box.

    I think Starmer’s rank cowardice over the strikes is depressing the Labour vote. By all means oppose union extremism, but looking at the merits, this round of strikes is entirely justified.

    The local elections were in retrospect a warning sign for Labour: +22 councillors net in England is so pathetic you are nearly lost for words. Mid-term against the most useless government in living memory.

    Terrific Lib Dem performance. They need to keep up the momentum by getting into the media with some persuasive voices. Then looks at Lib Dem front bench… oh dear! They desperately need new blood. They will likely get that now as membership numbers tick up.

    (The David Herdson result is very poor. I think that YP brand is a dead end.)
    I agree, save for your take on Herders. I think David was caught in the pincer movement of the very strong media focus on the dual by-elections and one candidate giving Boris a good kicking in each seat and another strong independent. I feared David would struggle to reach half of the deposit threshold.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 40,121
    Dowden resigns - “someone needs to take responsibility”. A very pointed line, in the circs…
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,160
    Foxy said:

    JACK_W said:

    Jack W(rap)

    Wakefield - Decent Labour result hampered by solid showing from two independents (Shame David Herdson didn't retain his deposit) Generally Labour doesn't do Orpington in by-elections. Red Wall Tories will be feeling much more uncomfortable this morning.

    T&H - Spectacular yellow peril win that will have many Tories in the south west clutching their pearls, drawing up their skirts and contemplating their post parliamentary careers. The LibDems are fully back in the West Country.

    Overall the two words that will haunt the Tories - Tactical Voting.

    Yes, I agree with the summary. T and H it seems is now in the history books as the biggest by-election win in terms of overcoming a majority. Lots of those blue shire seats could flip with a bit of tactical voting.
    Yes, I have warned about the Surrey seats and I think a significant number are going to turn yellow. Dominic Raab will lose his seat. Jeremy Hunt may too. Kwasi Kwarteng, Jonathan Lord are also not safe. I'd rule nothing out. Half the swing of last night would see Michael Gove lose his seat.

    People are really angry. They will vent it at the General Election.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 1,939
    Heathener said:

    Foxy said:

    6K win for Lib Dems! Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa that’s more like it

    Earthquake

    Boris, do one.
    Remainia more a problem for Tory’s by far than leaverstan. After locals and this, that’s unarguable now.
    No, Labour’s performance is good enough.
    The red wall is heading home.

    It’s just overshadowed by the blue wall in full collapse. This is beyond the LD’s wildest dreams.
    No it’s not! They got 1% more than the Torys managed at the GE, in mid term against this background? It’s an awful result for Labour.

    Where are you getting Red Wall coming
    home at GE from this flop?
    Keir is doing “enough”.

    I don’t like him much, and seemingly nobody else does, but he will be next PM barring a Johnson ouster.

    The Tories are sleepwalking to defeat.
    There’s nothing left in the tank. Nothing.

    We can say goodbye to the idea of an early election, too.

    Moon is one of these posters where once
    they’ve made up their mind it’s like talking to
    a brick wall
    The result is very mildly disappointing for Labour. There’s no excitement for Keir and his project. But it’s a good enough win, and importantly I believe it shows that it is over for the Tories.

    The next election is now simply about whether Labour can scrape a majority.

    You can state Fantasy and hopes as much as you want, as much as Horse, Heathener and Roger too. I deal in facts.

    Labour can’t even be confident of holding Wakefield at a GE on this result, with the hand sitters coming back, let alone tougher challenges in the Red Wall - that’s fact. That’s the fact this result screams at us. Far tougher red wall challenges than this at next GE, and they even have fight on to defend this.

    Labour got better Red Wall results than this flop on local election night.

    The polling of the seat gave them a better result than this.

    Tonight was a Labour flop, once it all sinks in.
    No, that is nonsense. The first Lab gain in a by-election in years. Not as spectacular as the LD result in Devon, but this puts Starmer comfortably in Number 10, the only question is whether as minority or majority government.

    Your man Johnson is now a total liability.
    You have it so wrong. J
    I think a little more humility might be in

    order from the person who assured me the Tories would win T&H.

    I asked you then if you worked for CCHQ. I'm now becoming even more suspicious that you do.

    You're a tory party wonk aren't you?
    I seem to remember you getting very offended when posters suggested that you might not be all you pretended to be
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,160

    Heathener said:


    MarqueeMark very rudely dismissed my suggestions, but people are really angry. The likes of Tokyo Edmund and UAE Sandpit don't get it because they aren't here.

    The latest SavantaComRes has Labour 11% ahead and with tactical voting the Conservatives are heading for a crushing General Election defeat. Removing Johnson may help but it may already be too late.

    1992-7 Redux.

    I may definitely be missing something from not being able to feel the general vibe on the streets, but equally sometimes the distance helps you remain objective.
    Not on this occasion. JJ may complain about it but it's true. If you're not in this country you won't get the visceral anger and hurt that there is.

    And to JJ: as per my Exeter comments yesterday, I know Tiverton & Honiton really really well.

    Red wall? I haven't much of a clue although I did bet correctly on the Brexit result and won a lot. Could see that one coming because I worked in a desolate disenfranchised seat.

    You do need to be of the people to get the people ...
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,861
    JACK_W said:

    JACK_W said:

    Jack W(rap)

    Wakefield - Decent Labour result hampered by solid showing from two independents (Shame David Herdson didn't retain his deposit) Generally Labour doesn't do Orpington in by-elections. Red Wall Tories will be feeling much more uncomfortable this morning.

    T&H - Spectacular yellow peril win that will have many Tories in the south west clutching their pearls, drawing up their skirts and contemplating their post parliamentary careers. The LibDems are fully back in the West Country.

    Overall the two words that will haunt the Tories - Tactical Voting.

    Good summary.

    The two words haunting the Scottish Tories are - Tactical Unwind. In the Post-Ruth-Davidson-Party era, gey few SLab and SLD voters will be putting their crosses in the blue box.

    I think Starmer’s rank cowardice over the strikes is depressing the Labour vote. By all means oppose union extremism, but looking at the merits, this round of strikes is entirely justified.

    The local elections were in retrospect a warning sign for Labour: +22 councillors net in England is so pathetic you are nearly lost for words. Mid-term against the most useless government in living memory.

    Terrific Lib Dem performance. They need to keep up the momentum by getting into the media with some persuasive voices. Then looks at Lib Dem front bench… oh dear! They desperately need new blood. They will likely get that now as membership numbers tick up.

    (The David Herdson result is very poor. I think that YP brand is a dead end.)
    I agree, save for your take on Herders. I think David was caught in the pincer movement of the very strong media focus on the dual by-elections and one candidate giving Boris a good kicking in each seat and another strong independent. I feared David would struggle to reach half of the deposit threshold.
    I defer to your greater knowledge. I know almost zilch about the local lie of the land and the campaign. I’m just looking at the headline results and thinking of the history of new parties on the scene. In the last 150 years, only one new party has broken through in England: Labour. I’d guess that well over 1000 other parties have tried and failed, the Yorkshire Party being a minnow in that large shoal of small fish.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,687
    The anti-Tory party, which dominated UK politics for around 15 years between 1992 and 2007 - and which was still strong enough to deny them a majority in 2010 - is back with a bang. It’s great to see.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 1,939
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Mornin' all.

    Tiverton & Honiton is going to be a thumping LibDem win.

    It will send a shockwave and probably hasten the end of Boris Johnson.

    Heathener said:

    By the way, I'm sure this has been picked up but re. the last thread, this might not even rank in the Top 10 by-election swings? The LibDems need, by my reckoning, a 22% swing and I think they will have a swing of 30%+

    It's going to be big but here are the list of record swings:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_by-election_records#Largest_swings

    Heathener said:

    Good morning.

    I suspect a lot of you, and the markets, are going to be surprised at the size of the LibDem win in Tiverton & Honiton.

    MarqueeMark very rudely dismissed my suggestions, but people are really angry. The likes of Tokyo Edmund and UAE Sandpit don't get it because they aren't here.

    The latest SavantaComRes has Labour 11% ahead and with tactical voting the Conservatives are heading for a crushing General Election defeat. Removing Johnson may help but it may already be too late.

    1992-7 Redux.
    I’d be very interested to hear @MarqueeMark ’s reaction.
    He is a shrewd observer of his party.
    Though his canvassing reports from T and H were not borne out by the result. Activists do inevitably talk up their own party but even so his were either a misrepresentation or were self delusion. A numpty for a Tory candidate didn't help I suppose.

    Well done Heathener, I thought T and H too ambitious for the LDs.. I won on Wakefield turnout, T and H Tory share, and Akbar for 3rd place, but lost on Tories holding T and H, and Greens in 3rd in Wakefield. Overall pretty even on the night betting wise, and delighted politically.
    Don’t forget they were pre VONC

    He sat on his hands after that point and it looks like voters did the same
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,160

    Heathener said:


    MarqueeMark very rudely dismissed my suggestions, but people are really angry. The likes of Tokyo Edmund and UAE Sandpit don't get it because they aren't here.

    The latest SavantaComRes has Labour 11% ahead and with tactical voting the Conservatives are heading for a crushing General Election defeat. Removing Johnson may help but it may already be too late.

    1992-7 Redux.


    Not very long ago the consensus of people here feeling the anger on the ground seemed to be that Boris Johnson was clearly going to get removed by his party over the thing with the parties, while more disinterested people thought it was only a medium-sized scandal
    I've never thought they would remove him.

    And your comment about the parties really really shows how out of touch you are in your far off land. People are really angry and hurt. We gave up so much during those lockdowns whilst that wicked clown was running a booze den in No.10.

    If you don't get this I'm afraid you (plural not you personally) will continue to call this wrong.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,108

    JACK_W said:

    Jack W(rap)

    Wakefield - Decent Labour result hampered by solid showing from two independents (Shame David Herdson didn't retain his deposit) Generally Labour doesn't do Orpington in by-elections. Red Wall Tories will be feeling much more uncomfortable this morning.

    T&H - Spectacular yellow peril win that will have many Tories in the south west clutching their pearls, drawing up their skirts and contemplating their post parliamentary careers. The LibDems are fully back in the West Country.

    Overall the two words that will haunt the Tories - Tactical Voting.

    Good summary.

    The two words haunting the Scottish Tories are - Tactical Unwind. In the Post-Ruth-Davidson-Party era, gey few SLab and SLD voters will be putting their crosses in the blue box.

    I think Starmer’s rank cowardice over the strikes is depressing the Labour vote. By all means oppose union extremism, but looking at the merits, this round of strikes is entirely justified.

    The local elections were in retrospect a warning sign for Labour: +22 councillors net in England is so pathetic you are nearly lost for words. Mid-term against the most useless government in living memory.

    Terrific Lib Dem performance. They need to keep up the momentum by getting into the media with some persuasive voices. Then looks at Lib Dem front bench… oh dear! They desperately need new blood. They will likely get that now as membership numbers tick up.

    (The David Herdson result is very poor. I think that YP brand is a dead end.)
    I think Mr Herdson would make a good Lib Dem. Like lots of other decent and honest former Conservative voters.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 32,412
    JACK_W said:

    JACK_W said:

    Jack W(rap)

    Wakefield - Decent Labour result hampered by solid showing from two independents (Shame David Herdson didn't retain his deposit) Generally Labour doesn't do Orpington in by-elections. Red Wall Tories will be feeling much more uncomfortable this morning.

    T&H - Spectacular yellow peril win that will have many Tories in the south west clutching their pearls, drawing up their skirts and contemplating their post parliamentary careers. The LibDems are fully back in the West Country.

    Overall the two words that will haunt the Tories - Tactical Voting.

    Good summary.

    The two words haunting the Scottish Tories are - Tactical Unwind. In the Post-Ruth-Davidson-Party era, gey few SLab and SLD voters will be putting their crosses in the blue box.

    I think Starmer’s rank cowardice over the strikes is depressing the Labour vote. By all means oppose union extremism, but looking at the merits, this round of strikes is entirely justified.

    The local elections were in retrospect a warning sign for Labour: +22 councillors net in England is so pathetic you are nearly lost for words. Mid-term against the most useless government in living memory.

    Terrific Lib Dem performance. They need to keep up the momentum by getting into the media with some persuasive voices. Then looks at Lib Dem front bench… oh dear! They desperately need new blood. They will likely get that now as membership numbers tick up.

    (The David Herdson result is very poor. I think that YP brand is a dead end.)
    I agree, save for your take on Herders. I think David was caught in the pincer movement of the very strong media focus on the dual by-elections and one candidate giving Boris a good kicking in each seat and another strong independent. I feared David would struggle to reach half of the deposit threshold.
    Much as I like David Herdson's writings, and his disillusion with the Tory party, the YP is a dead end. It might stand a chance as a regional party under PR, but under FPTP is going nowhere.

    One further point to note on the night is how poorly the various splitters of the racist far right did in Wakefield. Fransen on 21 votes is barely more than her nomination papers.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 1,939

    Heathener said:

    Foxy said:

    6K win for Lib Dems! Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa that’s more like it

    Earthquake

    Boris, do one.
    Remainia more a problem for Tory’s by far than leaverstan. After locals and this, that’s unarguable now.
    No, Labour’s performance is good enough.
    The red wall is heading home.

    It’s just overshadowed by the blue wall in full collapse. This is beyond the LD’s wildest dreams.
    No it’s not! They got 1% more than the Torys managed at the GE, in mid term against this background? It’s an awful result for Labour.

    Where are you getting Red Wall coming
    home at GE from this flop?
    Keir is doing “enough”.

    I don’t like him much, and seemingly nobody else does, but he will be next PM barring a Johnson ouster.

    The Tories are sleepwalking to defeat.
    There’s nothing left in the tank. Nothing.

    We can say goodbye to the idea of an early election, too.

    Moon is one of these posters where once
    they’ve made up their mind it’s like talking to
    a brick wall
    The result is very mildly disappointing for Labour. There’s no excitement for Keir and his project. But it’s a good enough win, and importantly I believe it shows that it is over for the Tories.

    The next election is now simply about whether Labour can scrape a majority.

    You can state Fantasy and hopes as much as you want, as much as Horse, Heathener and Roger too. I deal in facts.

    Labour can’t even be confident of holding Wakefield at a GE on this result, with the hand sitters coming back, let alone tougher challenges in the Red Wall - that’s fact. That’s the fact this result screams at us. Far tougher red wall challenges than this at next GE, and they even have fight on to defend this.

    Labour got better Red Wall results than this flop on local election night.

    The polling of the seat gave them a better result than this.

    Tonight was a Labour flop, once it all sinks in.
    No, that is nonsense. The first Lab gain in a by-election in years. Not as spectacular as the LD result in Devon, but this puts Starmer comfortably in Number 10, the only question is whether as minority or majority government.

    Your man Johnson is now a total liability.
    You have it so wrong. J
    I think a little more humility might be in

    order from the person who assured me the Tories would win T&H.



    I asked you then if you worked for CCHQ. I'm now becoming even more suspicious that you do.

    You're a tory party wonk aren't you?
    I seem to remember you getting very offended when posters suggested that you might not be all you pretended to be
    Ooh! Some brave soul off topiced me!
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,861

    The anti-Tory party, which dominated UK politics for around 15 years between 1992 and 2007 - and which was still strong enough to deny them a majority in 2010 - is back with a bang. It’s great to see.

    So, you’d be voting SNP if you lived in Buchan?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 40,121
    Dowden also spared the morning interview round?
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 523
    IanB2 said:

    Dowden resigns - “someone needs to take responsibility”. A very pointed line, in the circs…

    In gentler days and times of yore such a resignation would be expected and not drawn cynicism. Today we note casually it's another one cut of the thousand cuts bleeding Boris and the Tories to electoral death.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 40,121
    The LibDem victory is even more striking from the percentages - 53% to 39%
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 40,121
    It is also noteworthy how Dowden signs off his letter “I will always remain loyal to the Conservative Party”.

    In the space where he might have promised continued support for the Johnson government from the backbenches….
  • pingping Posts: 2,211
    Is anyone going into bat for Johnson this morning? Surely they can’t just all not say anything?!!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 40,121
    ping said:

    Is anyone going into bat for Johnson this morning? Surely they can’t just all not say anything?!!

    There aren’t enough fridges to hide them all?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 2,409
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The Wakefield result probably isn't bad enough for the Tories to bring about a renewed leadership challenge.

    No, but T&H certainly is.

    Big Dog has become a mangy cur.
    It might be the other way round. Consider two different classes of Conservative MP — it might be easier for blue wall Tories to dismiss Tiverton & Honiton as a typical LibDem by-election win that will not carry over to a general election; red wall Tories are surely more likely to see the Wakefield result as an existential threat to their own seats as voters return to Labour.
    The largest numerical majority ever overturned (I think) at a by election is not quite a typical result.
    It's a fantastic and very welcome shoeing for the Government.

    Those of us who have had more than enough of the Johnsonian Tories can take a lot of encouragement from this - if Labour can put the bricks back in the Red Wall and the Liberal Democrats make even a modest number of gains in the South, that should be sufficient to throw them out of office. But it's also equally possible that enough of the Conservative vote goes back home (and I'm thinking particularly about the well-to-do elderly core here, who do very well indeed out of the inflationary house price environment, and are bound to have more bungs thrown at them by the Chancellor before polling day) over the course of a GE campaign to undo most of the progress.

    Even with the truly gargantuan swing in Devon, I won't believe we're rid of them until I see it.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,687
    Tiverton & Honiton was not a Blue Wall seat. It was a Blue Castle surrounded by a Blue Moat penned in by a deep Blue Ditch seat. But all defences have been blown away. The anti-Tory party is relentless and cruel.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 21,199
    I predicted the Tories would lose both seats but Boris would stay. Sadly - for the Conservative Party - this appears to be accurate on all counts

    Boris is clearly steering his Party to a catastrophic defeat. They need to oust him now

    Recall the Golden Bough. The sacrifice of the king propitiates the angry gods, and thus the tribe is saved. It is time to propitiate; because the gods - AKA the voters - are VERY angry
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 17,089
    edited June 24
    IanB2 said:

    The LibDem victory is even more striking from the percentages - 53% to 39%

    My prediction was 47% to 39%. I had Labour a bit too high on 6%. Should have realised a lost deposit was the most likely outcome.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,687

    The anti-Tory party, which dominated UK politics for around 15 years between 1992 and 2007 - and which was still strong enough to deny them a majority in 2010 - is back with a bang. It’s great to see.

    So, you’d be voting SNP if you lived in Buchan?
    I am a patriot, therefore I am an anti-Tory!

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,750
    Trump - “Just say the election was corrupt and leave the rest to me and the Republican congressmen”. This is the smoking gun. Coupled with other testimony demonstrates both Trump’s substantive involvement and corrupt intent, requisite state of mind.
    https://twitter.com/EricHolder/status/1540060430801985536
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 55,112

    The anti-Tory party, which dominated UK politics for around 15 years between 1992 and 2007 - and which was still strong enough to deny them a majority in 2010 - is back with a bang. It’s great to see.

    You sure it’s not the anti-Boris party?

    Much more easily fixed.

    And don’t forget your notional “anti-Tory” party had a charismatic alternative to focus upon. A politician now widely reviled in the party he then led.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,687
    Very notably no message of support for the PM from Dowden. He declares his loyalty to the Conservative party and says things can’t go on this way. But they can - and they will.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,750

    Tiverton & Honiton was not a Blue Wall seat. It was a Blue Castle surrounded by a Blue Moat penned in by a deep Blue Ditch seat. But all defences have been blown away. The anti-Tory party is relentless and cruel.

    I thought we were relentlessly, but moderately inoffensive ?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 40,121

    Scott_xP said:

    Right but what if after that it's the winter of love

    Can’t believe Rwanda didn’t save the Conservatives. What next? Something even more bonkers or unpleasant?
    https://twitter.com/ayeshahazarika/status/1540185854286626817

    The only place BoZo has left to go is Brexit with a vengeance, and it doesn't work
    Reactionary grievance is a political tool not a magic wand. They're not going to run out of ways the world might change that old people find worrying.
    A change of PM doesn’t seem to be worrying the old folks of Devon…
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 29,844
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:


    MarqueeMark very rudely dismissed my suggestions, but people are really angry. The likes of Tokyo Edmund and UAE Sandpit don't get it because they aren't here.

    The latest SavantaComRes has Labour 11% ahead and with tactical voting the Conservatives are heading for a crushing General Election defeat. Removing Johnson may help but it may already be too late.

    1992-7 Redux.

    I may definitely be missing something from not being able to feel the general vibe on the streets, but equally sometimes the distance helps you remain objective.
    Not on this occasion. JJ may complain about it but it's true. If you're not in this country you won't get the visceral anger and hurt that there is.

    And to JJ: as per my Exeter comments yesterday, I know Tiverton & Honiton really really well.

    Red wall? I haven't much of a clue although I did bet correctly on the Brexit result and won a lot. Could see that one coming because I worked in a desolate disenfranchised seat.

    You do need to be of the people to get the people ...
    I will complain because it's a rubbish example of projection. "I think this way, therefore everyone else does."

    And before anyone says: the two by-election results last night were a deserved trouncing for the Conservatives; Johnson could go; most Tory MPs are spineless idiots for not voting against him; etc, etc.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 33,566
    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    Foxy said:

    6K win for Lib Dems! Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa that’s more like it

    Earthquake

    Boris, do one.
    Remainia more a problem for Tory’s by far than leaverstan. After locals and this, that’s unarguable now.
    No, Labour’s performance is good enough.
    The red wall is heading home.

    It’s just overshadowed by the blue wall in full collapse. This is beyond the LD’s wildest dreams.
    No it’s not! They got 1% more than the Torys managed at the GE, in mid term against this background? It’s an awful result for Labour.

    Where are you getting Red Wall coming
    home at GE from this flop?
    Keir is doing “enough”.

    I don’t like him much, and seemingly nobody else does, but he will be next PM barring a Johnson ouster.

    The Tories are sleepwalking to defeat.
    There’s nothing left in the tank. Nothing.

    We can say goodbye to the idea of an early election, too.

    Moon is one of these posters where once
    they’ve made up their mind it’s like talking to
    a brick wall
    The result is very mildly disappointing for Labour. There’s no excitement for Keir and his project. But it’s a good enough win, and importantly I believe it shows that it is over for the Tories.

    The next election is now simply about whether Labour can scrape a majority.

    You can state Fantasy and hopes as much as you want, as much as Horse, Heathener and Roger too. I deal in facts.

    Labour can’t even be confident of holding Wakefield at a GE on this result, with the hand sitters coming back, let alone tougher challenges in the Red Wall - that’s fact. That’s the fact this result screams at us. Far tougher red wall challenges than this at next GE, and they even have fight on to defend this.

    Labour got better Red Wall results than this flop on local election night.

    The polling of the seat gave them a better result than this.

    Tonight was a Labour flop, once it all sinks in.
    No, that is nonsense. The first Lab gain in a by-election in years. Not as spectacular as the LD result in Devon, but this puts Starmer comfortably in Number 10, the only question is whether as minority or majority government.

    Your man Johnson is now a total liability.
    You have it so wrong. J
    I think a little more humility might be in order from the person who assured me the Tories would win T&H.

    I asked you then if you worked for CCHQ. I'm now becoming even more suspicious that you do.

    You're a tory party wonk aren't you?
    No, I don't think so, but her claim to be an LD is not very plausible. I have never met an LD who sings Johnsons praises.
    Getting that way with Tories* also.

    *Excepting those on the Payroll.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 40,121
    Andy_JS said:

    IanB2 said:

    The LibDem victory is even more striking from the percentages - 53% to 39%

    My prediction was 47% to 39%. I had Labour a bit too high on 6%. Should have realised a lost deposit was the most likely outcome.
    You were closer than HY, anyhow. Take comfort where you can…
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 29,844
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:


    MarqueeMark very rudely dismissed my suggestions, but people are really angry. The likes of Tokyo Edmund and UAE Sandpit don't get it because they aren't here.

    The latest SavantaComRes has Labour 11% ahead and with tactical voting the Conservatives are heading for a crushing General Election defeat. Removing Johnson may help but it may already be too late.

    1992-7 Redux.


    Not very long ago the consensus of people here feeling the anger on the ground seemed to be that Boris Johnson was clearly going to get removed by his party over the thing with the parties, while more disinterested people thought it was only a medium-sized scandal
    I've never thought they would remove him.

    And your comment about the parties really really shows how out of touch you are in your far off land. People are really angry and hurt. We gave up so much during those lockdowns whilst that wicked clown was running a booze den in No.10.

    If you don't get this I'm afraid you (plural not you personally) will continue to call this wrong.
    "Far off land"

    Stop trolling.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 32,412
    edited June 24
    ClippP said:

    JACK_W said:

    Jack W(rap)

    Wakefield - Decent Labour result hampered by solid showing from two independents (Shame David Herdson didn't retain his deposit) Generally Labour doesn't do Orpington in by-elections. Red Wall Tories will be feeling much more uncomfortable this morning.

    T&H - Spectacular yellow peril win that will have many Tories in the south west clutching their pearls, drawing up their skirts and contemplating their post parliamentary careers. The LibDems are fully back in the West Country.

    Overall the two words that will haunt the Tories - Tactical Voting.

    Good summary.

    The two words haunting the Scottish Tories are - Tactical Unwind. In the Post-Ruth-Davidson-Party era, gey few SLab and SLD voters will be putting their crosses in the blue box.

    I think Starmer’s rank cowardice over the strikes is depressing the Labour vote. By all means oppose union extremism, but looking at the merits, this round of strikes is entirely justified.

    The local elections were in retrospect a warning sign for Labour: +22 councillors net in England is so pathetic you are nearly lost for words. Mid-term against the most useless government in living memory.

    Terrific Lib Dem performance. They need to keep up the momentum by getting into the media with some persuasive voices. Then looks at Lib Dem front bench… oh dear! They desperately need new blood. They will likely get that now as membership numbers tick up.

    (The David Herdson result is very poor. I think that YP brand is a dead end.)
    I think Mr Herdson would make a good Lib Dem. Like lots of other decent and honest former Conservative voters.
    I would happily see him join, but the LD approach to Brexit probably put him off. The significant influx of ultra-Remainers into the party between 2016-19 risked the LDs becoming a single issue party. Davey is managing that influx much better than Swinson did, keeping the LDs a pro-European party, but with a more plausible and sellable gradualist approach to rejoining the political and economic structures of Europe.

    I think Davey is showing some star quality. Not just his getting the byelection machine back on the road, but reinvigorating and regenerating the party internally very successfully.

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,861
    That Dowden letter is a classic: “Our supporters are distressed…” 😄 He must be a PB lurker.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,687
    Leon said:

    I predicted the Tories would lose both seats but Boris would stay. Sadly - for the Conservative Party - this appears to be accurate on all counts

    Boris is clearly steering his Party to a catastrophic defeat. They need to oust him now

    Recall the Golden Bough. The sacrifice of the king propitiates the angry gods, and thus the tribe is saved. It is time to propitiate; because the gods - AKA the voters - are VERY angry

    Johnson is the best the Tories have. That is the problem.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,268
    Good morning

    I had a good night's sleep last night as I had no doubt whatsoever that the conservative party would lose both elections

    Congratulations to both Labour and the Lib Dems and any conservative who still thinks Boris should be PM is not only in denial but looking at an extinction event

    Boris is out of the country for the next week and while he is away his mps and the 148 need to come together and plot his removal

    Oliver Dowden resignation this morning is a breath of fresh air as finally a conservative mp has accepted responsibility and it can only be hoped cabinet members also decide to join him thereby fatally undermining Johnson's (yes on this occasion Johnson) premiership
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,750

    The anti-Tory party, which dominated UK politics for around 15 years between 1992 and 2007 - and which was still strong enough to deny them a majority in 2010 - is back with a bang. It’s great to see.

    You sure it’s not the anti-Boris party?

    Much more easily fixed…..
    Is it ?

    Not with the bunch of spineless lumps currently occupying the backbenches. It might already be too late for them, and they don’t seem to be in any rush to change anything.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 58,598
    Good morning, everyone.

    I look forward to another rousing tune of "This time Boris Johnson will be axed" followed by the classic follow-up "Actually, no he won't".
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,861
    ClippP said:

    JACK_W said:

    Jack W(rap)

    Wakefield - Decent Labour result hampered by solid showing from two independents (Shame David Herdson didn't retain his deposit) Generally Labour doesn't do Orpington in by-elections. Red Wall Tories will be feeling much more uncomfortable this morning.

    T&H - Spectacular yellow peril win that will have many Tories in the south west clutching their pearls, drawing up their skirts and contemplating their post parliamentary careers. The LibDems are fully back in the West Country.

    Overall the two words that will haunt the Tories - Tactical Voting.

    Good summary.

    The two words haunting the Scottish Tories are - Tactical Unwind. In the Post-Ruth-Davidson-Party era, gey few SLab and SLD voters will be putting their crosses in the blue box.

    I think Starmer’s rank cowardice over the strikes is depressing the Labour vote. By all means oppose union extremism, but looking at the merits, this round of strikes is entirely justified.

    The local elections were in retrospect a warning sign for Labour: +22 councillors net in England is so pathetic you are nearly lost for words. Mid-term against the most useless government in living memory.

    Terrific Lib Dem performance. They need to keep up the momentum by getting into the media with some persuasive voices. Then looks at Lib Dem front bench… oh dear! They desperately need new blood. They will likely get that now as membership numbers tick up.

    (The David Herdson result is very poor. I think that YP brand is a dead end.)
    I think Mr Herdson would make a good Lib Dem. Like lots of other decent and honest former Conservative voters.
    I concur.

    David Herdson would be very welcome in the SNP if he ever moves to Scotland, as would other decent and honest former Conservative voters.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 1,388
    I thought the Lib Dems attack line which was intended to appeal to farmers in the seat was very good . Not attacking Brexit but the Tories selling farmers down the river with their new and future trade deals.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 55,112
    Nigelb said:

    The anti-Tory party, which dominated UK politics for around 15 years between 1992 and 2007 - and which was still strong enough to deny them a majority in 2010 - is back with a bang. It’s great to see.

    You sure it’s not the anti-Boris party?

    Much more easily fixed…..
    Is it ?

    Not with the bunch of spineless lumps currently occupying the backbenches. It might already be too late for them, and they don’t seem to be in any rush to change anything.

    Nothing concentrates a man’s mind than the knowledge that he is to be hanged in the morning…

    I rate their self-preservation instincts more highly…
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 33,566
    Nigelb said:

    The anti-Tory party, which dominated UK politics for around 15 years between 1992 and 2007 - and which was still strong enough to deny them a majority in 2010 - is back with a bang. It’s great to see.

    You sure it’s not the anti-Boris party?

    Much more easily fixed…..
    Is it ?

    Not with the bunch of spineless lumps currently occupying the backbenches. It might already be too late for them, and they don’t seem to be in any rush to change anything.

    I recall a few Tories stating that Lab would be tainted for a good while cos Corbyn. I wonder if they'll accept that this might also apply to record breaking Boris?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,687

    The anti-Tory party, which dominated UK politics for around 15 years between 1992 and 2007 - and which was still strong enough to deny them a majority in 2010 - is back with a bang. It’s great to see.

    You sure it’s not the anti-Boris party?

    Much more easily fixed.

    And don’t forget your notional “anti-Tory” party had a charismatic alternative to focus upon. A politician now widely reviled in the party he then led.
    The anti-Tory party got started before Blair was Labour leader and was strong enough to cost the Tories a majority after he’d gone.

    Johnson is very clearly a huge asset to the anti-Tory party, but it’s not as if there’s anyone better waiting in the wings.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,268
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:


    MarqueeMark very rudely dismissed my suggestions, but people are really angry. The likes of Tokyo Edmund and UAE Sandpit don't get it because they aren't here.

    The latest SavantaComRes has Labour 11% ahead and with tactical voting the Conservatives are heading for a crushing General Election defeat. Removing Johnson may help but it may already be too late.

    1992-7 Redux.


    Not very long ago the consensus of people here feeling the anger on the ground seemed to be that Boris Johnson was clearly going to get removed by his party over the thing with the parties, while more disinterested people thought it was only a medium-sized scandal
    I've never thought they would remove him.

    And your comment about the parties really really shows how out of touch you are in your far off land. People are really angry and hurt. We gave up so much during those lockdowns whilst that wicked clown was running a booze den in No.10.

    If you don't get this I'm afraid you (plural not you personally) will continue to call this wrong.
    I would just caution your criticism that as a poster is abroad their views are not relevant

    We have several posters regularly posting from abroad including @Sandpit, @Gardenwalker, @SeaShantyIrish2, @Cicero and others and they should be respected even if you do not agree with their point of view
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,861

    Leon said:

    I predicted the Tories would lose both seats but Boris would stay. Sadly - for the Conservative Party - this appears to be accurate on all counts

    Boris is clearly steering his Party to a catastrophic defeat. They need to oust him now

    Recall the Golden Bough. The sacrifice of the king propitiates the angry gods, and thus the tribe is saved. It is time to propitiate; because the gods - AKA the voters - are VERY angry

    Johnson is the best the Tories have. That is the problem.

    Nah. There’s half a dozen names in the top 20 on the Next Con Leader market who would be better than Johnson. However, knowing the dire culture within the party, it is pretty much guaranteed that they’ll pick one of the 14 absolute duffers.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,750

    Nigelb said:

    The anti-Tory party, which dominated UK politics for around 15 years between 1992 and 2007 - and which was still strong enough to deny them a majority in 2010 - is back with a bang. It’s great to see.

    You sure it’s not the anti-Boris party?

    Much more easily fixed…..
    Is it ?

    Not with the bunch of spineless lumps currently occupying the backbenches. It might already be too late for them, and they don’t seem to be in any rush to change anything.

    I recall a few Tories stating that Lab would be tainted for a good while cos Corbyn. I wonder if they'll accept that this might also apply to record breaking Boris?
    Removing him quickly is the logical thing to do, and the only chance of electoral survival for a large number of MPs, I think.

    Who knows, they might surprise me.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 40,121

    Nigelb said:

    The anti-Tory party, which dominated UK politics for around 15 years between 1992 and 2007 - and which was still strong enough to deny them a majority in 2010 - is back with a bang. It’s great to see.

    You sure it’s not the anti-Boris party?

    Much more easily fixed…..
    Is it ?

    Not with the bunch of spineless lumps currently occupying the backbenches. It might already be too late for them, and they don’t seem to be in any rush to change anything.

    Nothing concentrates a man’s mind than the knowledge that he is to be hanged in the morning…

    I rate their self-preservation instincts more highly…
    As the BBC is saying, it’s an invitation to other cabinet members to finally man (or woman) up and get him gone.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 32,412
    nico679 said:

    I thought the Lib Dems attack line which was intended to appeal to farmers in the seat was very good . Not attacking Brexit but the Tories selling farmers down the river with their new and future trade deals.

    Yes, the tactic should not be "I told you so". Despite that being accurate, it is never a good way to persuade. Better to simply whittle away at it by pointing out the adverse impact of the government's policy over a variety of issues.

    This made me smile yesterday from Harry Cole on twitter:

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1539913813725700100?t=tVMmRfZmu3ds6iYGoePyMQ&s=19

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 33,566
    Leon said:

    I predicted the Tories would lose both seats but Boris would stay. Sadly - for the Conservative Party - this appears to be accurate on all counts

    Boris is clearly steering his Party to a catastrophic defeat. They need to oust him now

    Recall the Golden Bough. The sacrifice of the king propitiates the angry gods, and thus the tribe is saved. It is time to propitiate; because the gods - AKA the voters - are VERY angry

    Gods opening express delivery package in the Underworld: Fckng Hades, it's supposed to be a golden beautiful youth!

    Wrath ensues.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 40,121
    Lol @ Tory HQ says it doesn’t know whether Dowden will be doing interviews or not…
  • LeonLeon Posts: 21,199
    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    I predicted the Tories would lose both seats but Boris would stay. Sadly - for the Conservative Party - this appears to be accurate on all counts

    Boris is clearly steering his Party to a catastrophic defeat. They need to oust him now

    Recall the Golden Bough. The sacrifice of the king propitiates the angry gods, and thus the tribe is saved. It is time to propitiate; because the gods - AKA the voters - are VERY angry

    And if, in the process, the Tory core has to put up with some social liberalism that it finds distasteful, then tough. If it should come to pass, a heavy Conservative defeat at the next election that allows this to happen will be as much a monument to their greed as it will be to Johnson's self-absorption and venality.

    Wokeness is not “social liberalism”, it is much more sinister than that

    I entirely agree with you on the predatory pensioners. We need a government for the young

    Unfortunately I don’t think Starmer’s Labour is it. They are as clueless - policy wise - as the Tories.

    But then, looking at the headlines in today’s FT, with emergencies across the world from humble Sri Lanka to mighty America, with the EU warning of “terrible splits” in the bloc as Russia shuts off the gas, I wonder if any politician anywhere has even a vague idea how to handle what’s coming our way

    Brace

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,861

    Nigelb said:

    The anti-Tory party, which dominated UK politics for around 15 years between 1992 and 2007 - and which was still strong enough to deny them a majority in 2010 - is back with a bang. It’s great to see.

    You sure it’s not the anti-Boris party?

    Much more easily fixed…..
    Is it ?

    Not with the bunch of spineless lumps currently occupying the backbenches. It might already be too late for them, and they don’t seem to be in any rush to change anything.

    I recall a few Tories stating that Lab would be tainted for a good while cos Corbyn. I wonder if they'll accept that this might also apply to record breaking Boris?
    Honest self-appraisal is not a key attribute of the PB Herd in the post-Nabavi/Herdson era.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,687

    Leon said:

    I predicted the Tories would lose both seats but Boris would stay. Sadly - for the Conservative Party - this appears to be accurate on all counts

    Boris is clearly steering his Party to a catastrophic defeat. They need to oust him now

    Recall the Golden Bough. The sacrifice of the king propitiates the angry gods, and thus the tribe is saved. It is time to propitiate; because the gods - AKA the voters - are VERY angry

    Johnson is the best the Tories have. That is the problem.

    Nah. There’s half a dozen names in the top 20 on the Next Con Leader market who would be better than Johnson. However, knowing the dire culture within the party, it is pretty much guaranteed that they’ll pick one of the 14 absolute duffers.
    That is the point. Only a right wing English nationalist culture warrior would get past the membership.

  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 851
    I got woken up by the local church bells so I figured I’d read the by election stories. The main thing that pops out is the level of tactical voting. There’s a very obvious voter-preference for “anyone but the Tories”, and that’s what should scare the Blue team right now.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,861
    IanB2 said:

    Lol @ Tory HQ says it doesn’t know whether Dowden will be doing interviews or not…

    A clueless Con spokesperson on what was always going to be a tremendously difficult day for the party. Can’t say I’m surprised. The Conservatives are just plain incompetent.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,687
    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The anti-Tory party, which dominated UK politics for around 15 years between 1992 and 2007 - and which was still strong enough to deny them a majority in 2010 - is back with a bang. It’s great to see.

    You sure it’s not the anti-Boris party?

    Much more easily fixed…..
    Is it ?

    Not with the bunch of spineless lumps currently occupying the backbenches. It might already be too late for them, and they don’t seem to be in any rush to change anything.

    Nothing concentrates a man’s mind than the knowledge that he is to be hanged in the morning…

    I rate their self-preservation instincts more highly…
    As the BBC is saying, it’s an invitation to other cabinet members to finally man (or woman) up and get him gone.
    Not a chance!!!

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