The LDs claim victory in Tiverton & Honiton – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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Not for me it isn'tedmundintokyo said:
If I was a Tory MP I'd just wait until the year's up and see how it's going. At that point it'll close enough to the election to make a reasonable guess as to whether he's likely to win it or not. Right now it's still a little bit hard to call either way.Scott_xP said:
A cabinet resignation or two could still oust him. But it won't.CarlottaVance said:Anyway Boris "greatest electoral asset since the 70s" Johnson isn't going anywhere. He won't resign and it's too soon for another confidence vote. Everything will grind on but it strengthens the case for another vote in the autumn around the privileges Committee findings.
https://twitter.com/samfr/status/15401747742777507861 -
The Hartlepool figure does show what a remarkable politician Boris is, or was.Foxy said:By-election turnout as a % of general election turnout:
Hartlepool: 74%
>Tiverton & Honiton: 72%
Batley & Spen: 71%
North Shropshire: 68%
Chesham & Amersham: 68%
>Wakefield: 61%
Birmingham Erdington: 51%
Old Bexley & Sidcup: 48%
So the low turnout in Wakefield is not out of line with other by-elections. Wakefield only turned out 64% in the GE, so a pretty hard place to motivate the GOTV.0 -
Can’t believe Rwanda didn’t save the Conservatives. What next? Something even more bonkers or unpleasant?edmundintokyo said:Right but what if after that it's the winter of love
https://twitter.com/ayeshahazarika/status/1540185854286626817
The only place BoZo has left to go is Brexit with a vengeance, and it doesn't work0 -
Morning all. A lovely morning it is too, despite very little sleep.
If the Conservatives keep Boris Johnson, this is what will happen at the General Election. And they will be out of power for at least two terms.
It's that simple.0 -
It was arguably a good result for Labour supporters who don't want Johnson to be replaced as leader.0
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I hope you’re right.Andy_JS said:The Wakefield result probably isn't bad enough for the Tories to bring about a renewed leadership challenge.
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New Lib Dem MP Richard Foord says Tiverton and Honiton win has "sent a shockwave through British politics".
"Every day Boris Johnson clings to office, he brings further shame, chaos and neglect," Foord said.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/tiverton-and-honiton-liberal-democrats-conservative-by-election-result0 -
I think a little more humility might be in order from the person who assured me the Tories would win T&H.MoonRabbit said:
You have it so wrong. JFoxy said:
No, that is nonsense. The first Lab gain in a by-election in years. Not as spectacular as the LD result in Devon, but this puts Starmer comfortably in Number 10, the only question is whether as minority or majority government.MoonRabbit said:
You can state Fantasy and hopes as much as you want, as much as Horse, Heathener and Roger too. I deal in facts.Gardenwalker said:
The result is very mildly disappointing for Labour. There’s no excitement for Keir and his project. But it’s a good enough win, and importantly I believe it shows that it is over for the Tories.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Moon is one of these posters where onceGardenwalker said:
Keir is doing “enough”.MoonRabbit said:
No it’s not! They got 1% more than the Torys managed at the GE, in mid term against this background? It’s an awful result for Labour.Gardenwalker said:
No, Labour’s performance is good enough.MoonRabbit said:
Remainia more a problem for Tory’s by far than leaverstan. After locals and this, that’s unarguable now.Gardenwalker said:
Boris, do one.MoonRabbit said:6K win for Lib Dems! Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa that’s more like it
Earthquake
The red wall is heading home.
It’s just overshadowed by the blue wall in full collapse. This is beyond the LD’s wildest dreams.
Where are you getting Red Wall coming
home at GE from this flop?
I don’t like him much, and seemingly nobody else does, but he will be next PM barring a Johnson ouster.
The Tories are sleepwalking to defeat.
There’s nothing left in the tank. Nothing.
We can say goodbye to the idea of an early election, too.
they’ve made up their mind it’s like talking to
a brick wall
The next election is now simply about whether Labour can scrape a majority.
Labour can’t even be confident of holding Wakefield at a GE on this result, with the hand sitters coming back, let alone tougher challenges in the Red Wall - that’s fact. That’s the fact this result screams at us. Far tougher red wall challenges than this at next GE, and they even have fight on to defend this.
Labour got better Red Wall results than this flop on local election night.
The polling of the seat gave them a better result than this.
Tonight was a Labour flop, once it all sinks in.
Your man Johnson is now a total liability.
I asked you then if you worked for CCHQ. I'm now becoming even more suspicious that you do.
You're a tory party wonk aren't you?0 -
T and H is spectacular for the Lib Dems though. Like N Shrops it will be hard to retain at a GE. The LDs need to come up with some policies that appeal to the rural vote, as well as the suburban SE.
The scale of tactical voting in both seats looks huge.6 -
No, I don't think so, but her claim to be an LD is not very plausible. I have never met an LD who sings Johnsons praises.Heathener said:
I think a little more humility might be in order from the person who assured me the Tories would win T&H.MoonRabbit said:
You have it so wrong. JFoxy said:
No, that is nonsense. The first Lab gain in a by-election in years. Not as spectacular as the LD result in Devon, but this puts Starmer comfortably in Number 10, the only question is whether as minority or majority government.MoonRabbit said:
You can state Fantasy and hopes as much as you want, as much as Horse, Heathener and Roger too. I deal in facts.Gardenwalker said:
The result is very mildly disappointing for Labour. There’s no excitement for Keir and his project. But it’s a good enough win, and importantly I believe it shows that it is over for the Tories.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Moon is one of these posters where onceGardenwalker said:
Keir is doing “enough”.MoonRabbit said:
No it’s not! They got 1% more than the Torys managed at the GE, in mid term against this background? It’s an awful result for Labour.Gardenwalker said:
No, Labour’s performance is good enough.MoonRabbit said:
Remainia more a problem for Tory’s by far than leaverstan. After locals and this, that’s unarguable now.Gardenwalker said:
Boris, do one.MoonRabbit said:6K win for Lib Dems! Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa that’s more like it
Earthquake
The red wall is heading home.
It’s just overshadowed by the blue wall in full collapse. This is beyond the LD’s wildest dreams.
Where are you getting Red Wall coming
home at GE from this flop?
I don’t like him much, and seemingly nobody else does, but he will be next PM barring a Johnson ouster.
The Tories are sleepwalking to defeat.
There’s nothing left in the tank. Nothing.
We can say goodbye to the idea of an early election, too.
they’ve made up their mind it’s like talking to
a brick wall
The next election is now simply about whether Labour can scrape a majority.
Labour can’t even be confident of holding Wakefield at a GE on this result, with the hand sitters coming back, let alone tougher challenges in the Red Wall - that’s fact. That’s the fact this result screams at us. Far tougher red wall challenges than this at next GE, and they even have fight on to defend this.
Labour got better Red Wall results than this flop on local election night.
The polling of the seat gave them a better result than this.
Tonight was a Labour flop, once it all sinks in.
Your man Johnson is now a total liability.
I asked you then if you worked for CCHQ. I'm now becoming even more suspicious that you do.
You're a tory party wonk aren't you?1 -
Reactionary grievance is a political tool not a magic wand. They're not going to run out of ways the world might change that old people find worrying.Scott_xP said:
Can’t believe Rwanda didn’t save the Conservatives. What next? Something even more bonkers or unpleasant?edmundintokyo said:Right but what if after that it's the winter of love
https://twitter.com/ayeshahazarika/status/1540185854286626817
The only place BoZo has left to go is Brexit with a vengeance, and it doesn't work2 -
Jack W(rap)
Wakefield - Decent Labour result hampered by solid showing from two independents (Shame David Herdson didn't retain his deposit) Generally Labour doesn't do Orpington in by-elections. Red Wall Tories will be feeling much more uncomfortable this morning.
T&H - Spectacular yellow peril win that will have many Tories in the south west clutching their pearls, drawing up their skirts and contemplating their post parliamentary careers. The LibDems are fully back in the West Country.
Overall the two words that will haunt the Tories - Tactical Voting.7 -
The electorate will judge such pusillanimity.edmundintokyo said:
If I was a Tory MP I'd just wait until the year's up and see how it's going. At that point it'll close enough to the election to make a reasonable guess as to whether he's likely to win it or not. Right now it's still a little bit hard to call either way.Scott_xP said:
A cabinet resignation or two could still oust him. But it won't.CarlottaVance said:Anyway Boris "greatest electoral asset since the 70s" Johnson isn't going anywhere. He won't resign and it's too soon for another confidence vote. Everything will grind on but it strengthens the case for another vote in the autumn around the privileges Committee findings.
https://twitter.com/samfr/status/1540174774277750786
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The Tories don’t need culture wars, they need a competent front bench.Scott_xP said:The Tory chairman has been pushing the culture wars hard. Voices calling for the party to change tack will no doubt get louder now.
https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1540184661808369664
https://twitter.com/DPMcBride/status/1540184129194557440
Shame the internal party culture is to reward idiocy and punish proficiency, because the hardest thing to change in any organisation is ingrained culture.0 -
Heathener said:
Mornin' all.
Tiverton & Honiton is going to be a thumping LibDem win.
It will send a shockwave and probably hasten the end of Boris Johnson.Heathener said:By the way, I'm sure this has been picked up but re. the last thread, this might not even rank in the Top 10 by-election swings? The LibDems need, by my reckoning, a 22% swing and I think they will have a swing of 30%+
It's going to be big but here are the list of record swings:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_by-election_records#Largest_swings
MarqueeMark very rudely dismissed my suggestions, but people are really angry. The likes of Tokyo Edmund and UAE Sandpit don't get it because they aren't here.Heathener said:Good morning.
I suspect a lot of you, and the markets, are going to be surprised at the size of the LibDem win in Tiverton & Honiton.
The latest SavantaComRes has Labour 11% ahead and with tactical voting the Conservatives are heading for a crushing General Election defeat. Removing Johnson may help but it may already be too late.
1992-7 Redux.0 -
It’s a broad church.Foxy said:
No, I don't think so, but her claim to be an LD is not very plausible. I have never met an LD who sings Johnsons praises.Heathener said:
I think a little more humility might be in order from the person who assured me the Tories would win T&H.MoonRabbit said:
You have it so wrong. JFoxy said:
No, that is nonsense. The first Lab gain in a by-election in years. Not as spectacular as the LD result in Devon, but this puts Starmer comfortably in Number 10, the only question is whether as minority or majority government.MoonRabbit said:
You can state Fantasy and hopes as much as you want, as much as Horse, Heathener and Roger too. I deal in facts.Gardenwalker said:
The result is very mildly disappointing for Labour. There’s no excitement for Keir and his project. But it’s a good enough win, and importantly I believe it shows that it is over for the Tories.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Moon is one of these posters where onceGardenwalker said:
Keir is doing “enough”.MoonRabbit said:
No it’s not! They got 1% more than the Torys managed at the GE, in mid term against this background? It’s an awful result for Labour.Gardenwalker said:
No, Labour’s performance is good enough.MoonRabbit said:
Remainia more a problem for Tory’s by far than leaverstan. After locals and this, that’s unarguable now.Gardenwalker said:
Boris, do one.MoonRabbit said:6K win for Lib Dems! Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa that’s more like it
Earthquake
The red wall is heading home.
It’s just overshadowed by the blue wall in full collapse. This is beyond the LD’s wildest dreams.
Where are you getting Red Wall coming
home at GE from this flop?
I don’t like him much, and seemingly nobody else does, but he will be next PM barring a Johnson ouster.
The Tories are sleepwalking to defeat.
There’s nothing left in the tank. Nothing.
We can say goodbye to the idea of an early election, too.
they’ve made up their mind it’s like talking to
a brick wall
The next election is now simply about whether Labour can scrape a majority.
Labour can’t even be confident of holding Wakefield at a GE on this result, with the hand sitters coming back, let alone tougher challenges in the Red Wall - that’s fact. That’s the fact this result screams at us. Far tougher red wall challenges than this at next GE, and they even have fight on to defend this.
Labour got better Red Wall results than this flop on local election night.
The polling of the seat gave them a better result than this.
Tonight was a Labour flop, once it all sinks in.
Your man Johnson is now a total liability.
I asked you then if you worked for CCHQ. I'm now becoming even more suspicious that you do.
You're a tory party wonk aren't you?
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Time for Con to get rid of Boris the loser!1
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The Telegraph are in no doubt:
Tories lose Tiverton and Wakefield in worst by-election defeat in history
Conservatives surrender West Yorkshire seat as voters turn their backs on Boris Johnson after No 10 scandals
The Liberal Democrats have landed the biggest by-election win in British history to seize Tiverton and Honiton and plunge Boris Johnson’s leadership deeper into crisis.
On a balmy night in south Devon, their candidate Richard Foord, a former army major, wiped out a colossal 24,239 majority to win a seat the Tories had held ever since its creation in 1997.
His victory will send shockwaves through the Government and is only set to increase pressure on the Prime Minister from his own restless backbench MPs.
It is the biggest ever lead to be overturned in a UK by-election. The record was held by Labour, which toppled a 23,927 Tory majority in Liverpool Wavertree in 1935.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/06/24/byelection-2022-results-wakefield-tiverton-tories-lose/
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I’d be very interested to hear @MarqueeMark ’s reaction.Heathener said:Heathener said:Mornin' all.
Tiverton & Honiton is going to be a thumping LibDem win.
It will send a shockwave and probably hasten the end of Boris Johnson.Heathener said:By the way, I'm sure this has been picked up but re. the last thread, this might not even rank in the Top 10 by-election swings? The LibDems need, by my reckoning, a 22% swing and I think they will have a swing of 30%+
It's going to be big but here are the list of record swings:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_by-election_records#Largest_swings
MarqueeMark very rudely dismissed my suggestions, but people are really angry. The likes of Tokyo Edmund and UAE Sandpit don't get it because they aren't here.Heathener said:Good morning.
I suspect a lot of you, and the markets, are going to be surprised at the size of the LibDem win in Tiverton & Honiton.
The latest SavantaComRes has Labour 11% ahead and with tactical voting the Conservatives are heading for a crushing General Election defeat. Removing Johnson may help but it may already be too late.
1992-7 Redux.
He is a shrewd observer of his party.0 -
Will they? Like, imagine it's looking pretty bad in June, 2023, Boris is involved in a new instance of wrongdoing (they show no signs of running out) and he's unceremoniously dumped and replaced by - I dunno - Liz Truss. The government looks temporarily refreshed and invigorated and she makes a big thing about cleaning up conflicts of interest and the other bits of minor corruption and announces something interesting and popular like bringing back horses.Nigelb said:
The electorate will judge such pusillanimity.edmundintokyo said:
If I was a Tory MP I'd just wait until the year's up and see how it's going. At that point it'll close enough to the election to make a reasonable guess as to whether he's likely to win it or not. Right now it's still a little bit hard to call either way.Scott_xP said:
A cabinet resignation or two could still oust him. But it won't.CarlottaVance said:Anyway Boris "greatest electoral asset since the 70s" Johnson isn't going anywhere. He won't resign and it's too soon for another confidence vote. Everything will grind on but it strengthens the case for another vote in the autumn around the privileges Committee findings.
https://twitter.com/samfr/status/1540174774277750786
Are the voters really going to treat the resulting government differently because they got to that point after 4 years of Boris Johnson instead of 3?0 -
It might be the other way round. Consider two different classes of Conservative MP — it might be easier for blue wall Tories to dismiss Tiverton & Honiton as a typical LibDem by-election win that will not carry over to a general election; red wall Tories are surely more likely to see the Wakefield result as an existential threat to their own seats as voters return to Labour.Nigelb said:
No, but T&H certainly is.Andy_JS said:The Wakefield result probably isn't bad enough for the Tories to bring about a renewed leadership challenge.
Big Dog has become a mangy cur.0 -
Not quite, Starmer doesn't have the charismatic following that Blair had in the mid nineties. In some ways that is a good thing, Charisma and personality cults are things to be wary of in politicians. Usually they are a marker of a charlatan.Heathener said:Heathener said:Mornin' all.
Tiverton & Honiton is going to be a thumping LibDem win.
It will send a shockwave and probably hasten the end of Boris Johnson.Heathener said:By the way, I'm sure this has been picked up but re. the last thread, this might not even rank in the Top 10 by-election swings? The LibDems need, by my reckoning, a 22% swing and I think they will have a swing of 30%+
It's going to be big but here are the list of record swings:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_by-election_records#Largest_swings
MarqueeMark very rudely dismissed my suggestions, but people are really angry. The likes of Tokyo Edmund and UAE Sandpit don't get it because they aren't here.Heathener said:Good morning.
I suspect a lot of you, and the markets, are going to be surprised at the size of the LibDem win in Tiverton & Honiton.
The latest SavantaComRes has Labour 11% ahead and with tactical voting the Conservatives are heading for a crushing General Election defeat. Removing Johnson may help but it may already be too late.
1992-7 Redux.2 -
Boris 1.19 to be Prime Minister for the 2022 Conservative conference (scheduled for 2-5 October).GIN1138 said:Time for Con to get rid of Boris the loser!
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.1915044180 -
Technically that's true, but the Tories will look at a 6,000 LD majority in Tiverton and think we can win this back without too many problems. Wakefield is the seat that will be an important marginal at the general election.Nigelb said:
No, but T&H certainly is.Andy_JS said:The Wakefield result probably isn't bad enough for the Tories to bring about a renewed leadership challenge.
Big Dog has become a mangy cur.2 -
Folk are not going to look at it like that.edmundintokyo said:
Will they? Like, imagine it's looking pretty bad in June, 2023, Boris is involved in a new instance of wrongdoing (they show no signs of running out) and he's unceremoniously dumped and replaced by - I dunno - Liz Truss. The government looks temporarily refreshed and invigorated and she makes a big thing about cleaning up conflicts of interest and the other bits of minor corruption and announces something interesting and popular like bringing back horses.Nigelb said:
The electorate will judge such pusillanimity.edmundintokyo said:
If I was a Tory MP I'd just wait until the year's up and see how it's going. At that point it'll close enough to the election to make a reasonable guess as to whether he's likely to win it or not. Right now it's still a little bit hard to call either way.Scott_xP said:
A cabinet resignation or two could still oust him. But it won't.CarlottaVance said:Anyway Boris "greatest electoral asset since the 70s" Johnson isn't going anywhere. He won't resign and it's too soon for another confidence vote. Everything will grind on but it strengthens the case for another vote in the autumn around the privileges Committee findings.
https://twitter.com/samfr/status/1540174774277750786
Are the voters really going to treat the resulting government differently because they got to that point after 4 years of Boris Johnson instead of 3?
Another year of Boris has to be lived through, with all the continuing humiliations that it’s likely to entail for his party. A tactical substitution in extra time just looks like more cynicism.
And “I dunno” speaks volumes.1 -
Ya, probably true, but don't forget that for the first two years of the 1992-7 parliament Labour was led by someone very similar to Keir Starmer: John Smith.Foxy said:
Not quite, Starmer doesn't have the charismatic following that Blair had in the mid nineties. In some ways that is a good thing, Charisma and personality cults are things to be wary of in politicians. Usually they are a marker of a charlatan.Heathener said:Heathener said:Mornin' all.
Tiverton & Honiton is going to be a thumping LibDem win.
It will send a shockwave and probably hasten the end of Boris Johnson.Heathener said:By the way, I'm sure this has been picked up but re. the last thread, this might not even rank in the Top 10 by-election swings? The LibDems need, by my reckoning, a 22% swing and I think they will have a swing of 30%+
It's going to be big but here are the list of record swings:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_by-election_records#Largest_swings
MarqueeMark very rudely dismissed my suggestions, but people are really angry. The likes of Tokyo Edmund and UAE Sandpit don't get it because they aren't here.Heathener said:Good morning.
I suspect a lot of you, and the markets, are going to be surprised at the size of the LibDem win in Tiverton & Honiton.
The latest SavantaComRes has Labour 11% ahead and with tactical voting the Conservatives are heading for a crushing General Election defeat. Removing Johnson may help but it may already be too late.
1992-7 Redux.
Tony Blair didn't become leader until July 1994
Labour's 11% poll lead yesterday together with tactical voting in both red wall and safe blue is the writing on the wall.0 -
Good summary.JACK_W said:Jack W(rap)
Wakefield - Decent Labour result hampered by solid showing from two independents (Shame David Herdson didn't retain his deposit) Generally Labour doesn't do Orpington in by-elections. Red Wall Tories will be feeling much more uncomfortable this morning.
T&H - Spectacular yellow peril win that will have many Tories in the south west clutching their pearls, drawing up their skirts and contemplating their post parliamentary careers. The LibDems are fully back in the West Country.
Overall the two words that will haunt the Tories - Tactical Voting.
The two words haunting the Scottish Tories are - Tactical Unwind. In the Post-Ruth-Davidson-Party era, gey few SLab and SLD voters will be putting their crosses in the blue box.
I think Starmer’s rank cowardice over the strikes is depressing the Labour vote. By all means oppose union extremism, but looking at the merits, this round of strikes is entirely justified.
The local elections were in retrospect a warning sign for Labour: +22 councillors net in England is so pathetic you are nearly lost for words. Mid-term against the most useless government in living memory.
Terrific Lib Dem performance. They need to keep up the momentum by getting into the media with some persuasive voices. Then looks at Lib Dem front bench… oh dear! They desperately need new blood. They will likely get that now as membership numbers tick up.
(The David Herdson result is very poor. I think that YP brand is a dead end.)0 -
Andy_JS said:
Tiverton & Honiton
LD 22,563
Con 16,393
Lab 1,562
Green 1,064
Reform UK 481
UKIP 241
Heritage 167
For Britain 146
LD maj = 6,170
LD: 52.9% (+38.1)
Con: 38.5% (-21.7)
Lab: 3.7% (-15.9)
Grn: 2.5% (-1.3)
Reform UK: 1.1% (+1.1)
UKIP: 0.6% (-1.1)
Decline in labour share > difference between Con & LD2 -
Though his canvassing reports from T and H were not borne out by the result. Activists do inevitably talk up their own party but even so his were either a misrepresentation or were self delusion. A numpty for a Tory candidate didn't help I suppose.Nigelb said:
I’d be very interested to hear @MarqueeMark ’s reaction.Heathener said:Heathener said:Mornin' all.
Tiverton & Honiton is going to be a thumping LibDem win.
It will send a shockwave and probably hasten the end of Boris Johnson.Heathener said:By the way, I'm sure this has been picked up but re. the last thread, this might not even rank in the Top 10 by-election swings? The LibDems need, by my reckoning, a 22% swing and I think they will have a swing of 30%+
It's going to be big but here are the list of record swings:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_by-election_records#Largest_swings
MarqueeMark very rudely dismissed my suggestions, but people are really angry. The likes of Tokyo Edmund and UAE Sandpit don't get it because they aren't here.Heathener said:Good morning.
I suspect a lot of you, and the markets, are going to be surprised at the size of the LibDem win in Tiverton & Honiton.
The latest SavantaComRes has Labour 11% ahead and with tactical voting the Conservatives are heading for a crushing General Election defeat. Removing Johnson may help but it may already be too late.
1992-7 Redux.
He is a shrewd observer of his party.
Well done Heathener, I thought T and H too ambitious for the LDs.. I won on Wakefield turnout, T and H Tory share, and Akbar for 3rd place, but lost on Tories holding T and H, and Greens in 3rd in Wakefield. Overall pretty even on the night betting wise, and delighted politically.4 -
Big differences though, say what you like about Osborne and Cameron, and I thought it was economically bad even though politically clever, but they had a plan to cut early and then loosen things near a GE, escaped a full on recession that many think is on the cards now. Can the same be said of the current Tories? There's little doubt there'll be tax cuts but enough to alleviate the "are you better off?" question? These problems don't look temporary - inflation isn't going away yet, energy costs likely to hit harder this winter, certainly not enough for people to feel better off by 2024. Boris is much more unpopular than Cameron - particularly with a now key demographic of liberal conservative voters who stuck with the party in 2019 in part thanks to Corbyn but are pretty disgusted by the culture war direction of the Tories. Starmer, though far from perfect, is also in a significantly better personal polling place than Ed M - unloved, but not hated or regarded as a joke - as is issue polling where Labour are no longer always miles behind on the economy, etc.edmundintokyo said:
I mean the polls are looking pretty Ed-Milliband-ish, Labour's leader is acceptable but not wildly loved, they just got a decent swing in a by-election but not a monster one, there are some economic problems that may well be temporary. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯Scott_xP said:
It really isn'tedmundintokyo said:Right now it's still a little bit hard to call either way.
A big one though is that Lib Dem and Labour parties and voters aren't at odds for the first time probably since 2001. What got Cameron his majority in 2015 was the collapse of the Lib Dems as Tory-leaning voters ditched them as pointless, and left-leaning ones refused to vote for a party that had aligned itself against them. Signs are that's reversing as left-wingers just want the Tories out and opposing Brexit may have washed away some sins, and can play opposition politics to attract more right-wing ones. A moderate improvement on Ed Miliband then for Labour, plus a few inroads in Scotland, would probably be enough to unseat an uncoalitionable Conservative Party.1 -
The largest numerical majority ever overturned (I think) at a by election is not quite a typical result.DecrepiterJohnL said:
It might be the other way round. Consider two different classes of Conservative MP — it might be easier for blue wall Tories to dismiss Tiverton & Honiton as a typical LibDem by-election win that will not carry over to a general election; red wall Tories are surely more likely to see the Wakefield result as an existential threat to their own seats as voters return to Labour.Nigelb said:
No, but T&H certainly is.Andy_JS said:The Wakefield result probably isn't bad enough for the Tories to bring about a renewed leadership challenge.
Big Dog has become a mangy cur.2 -
I may definitely be missing something from not being able to feel the general vibe on the streets, but equally sometimes the distance helps you remain objective.Heathener said:
MarqueeMark very rudely dismissed my suggestions, but people are really angry. The likes of Tokyo Edmund and UAE Sandpit don't get it because they aren't here.
The latest SavantaComRes has Labour 11% ahead and with tactical voting the Conservatives are heading for a crushing General Election defeat. Removing Johnson may help but it may already be too late.
1992-7 Redux.
Not very long ago the consensus of people here feeling the anger on the ground seemed to be that Boris Johnson was clearly going to get removed by his party over the thing with the parties, while more disinterested people thought it was only a medium-sized scandal and maybe the Tories could keep calm and carry on. Now the rebels have taken their shot and he's still there.
The objective signs are simply not looking like 1992-7. If you had nothing to go on except the data, you'd say it's a regular mildly unpopular mid-term government that might recover or might lose. If you think it's 1992-7, you need to explain why the polling isn't looking like 1992-7, and neither are the by-election swings.2 -
Perhaps they will also be looking at their more marginal southern seats as.well, and wondering about them ?Andy_JS said:
Technically that's true, but the Tories will look at a 6,000 LD majority in Tiverton and think we can win this back without too many problems. Wakefield is the seat that will be an important marginal at the general election.Nigelb said:
No, but T&H certainly is.Andy_JS said:The Wakefield result probably isn't bad enough for the Tories to bring about a renewed leadership challenge.
Big Dog has become a mangy cur.
Though I’ll grant it’s possible that they’re too stupid to see in front of their noses.
The point is they are facing a double squeeze, and Boris continuing will guarantee that continues.2 -
BBC - Oliver Dowden resigns1
-
If you don't want people to be rude to you, don't be rude to others.Heathener said:Heathener said:Mornin' all.
Tiverton & Honiton is going to be a thumping LibDem win.
It will send a shockwave and probably hasten the end of Boris Johnson.Heathener said:By the way, I'm sure this has been picked up but re. the last thread, this might not even rank in the Top 10 by-election swings? The LibDems need, by my reckoning, a 22% swing and I think they will have a swing of 30%+
It's going to be big but here are the list of record swings:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_by-election_records#Largest_swings
MarqueeMark very rudely dismissed my suggestions, but people are really angry. The likes of Tokyo Edmund and UAE Sandpit don't get it because they aren't here.Heathener said:Good morning.
I suspect a lot of you, and the markets, are going to be surprised at the size of the LibDem win in Tiverton & Honiton.
The latest SavantaComRes has Labour 11% ahead and with tactical voting the Conservatives are heading for a crushing General Election defeat. Removing Johnson may help but it may already be too late.
1992-7 Redux.
I also doubt that you get much more of a 'vibe' than them. How much do you travel to different parts of the country? Talk to different people? How much are you willing to open your ears to points of view that are not in line with your own?
I don't like this: "you're not here, you don't know" attitude.0 -
Not that broad!Nigelb said:
It’s a broad church.Foxy said:
No, I don't think so, but her claim to be an LD is not very plausible. I have never met an LD who sings Johnsons praises.Heathener said:
I think a little more humility might be in order from the person who assured me the Tories would win T&H.MoonRabbit said:
You have it so wrong. JFoxy said:
No, that is nonsense. The first Lab gain in a by-election in years. Not as spectacular as the LD result in Devon, but this puts Starmer comfortably in Number 10, the only question is whether as minority or majority government.MoonRabbit said:
You can state Fantasy and hopes as much as you want, as much as Horse, Heathener and Roger too. I deal in facts.Gardenwalker said:
The result is very mildly disappointing for Labour. There’s no excitement for Keir and his project. But it’s a good enough win, and importantly I believe it shows that it is over for the Tories.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Moon is one of these posters where onceGardenwalker said:
Keir is doing “enough”.MoonRabbit said:
No it’s not! They got 1% more than the Torys managed at the GE, in mid term against this background? It’s an awful result for Labour.Gardenwalker said:
No, Labour’s performance is good enough.MoonRabbit said:
Remainia more a problem for Tory’s by far than leaverstan. After locals and this, that’s unarguable now.Gardenwalker said:
Boris, do one.MoonRabbit said:6K win for Lib Dems! Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa that’s more like it
Earthquake
The red wall is heading home.
It’s just overshadowed by the blue wall in full collapse. This is beyond the LD’s wildest dreams.
Where are you getting Red Wall coming
home at GE from this flop?
I don’t like him much, and seemingly nobody else does, but he will be next PM barring a Johnson ouster.
The Tories are sleepwalking to defeat.
There’s nothing left in the tank. Nothing.
We can say goodbye to the idea of an early election, too.
they’ve made up their mind it’s like talking to
a brick wall
The next election is now simply about whether Labour can scrape a majority.
Labour can’t even be confident of holding Wakefield at a GE on this result, with the hand sitters coming back, let alone tougher challenges in the Red Wall - that’s fact. That’s the fact this result screams at us. Far tougher red wall challenges than this at next GE, and they even have fight on to defend this.
Labour got better Red Wall results than this flop on local election night.
The polling of the seat gave them a better result than this.
Tonight was a Labour flop, once it all sinks in.
Your man Johnson is now a total liability.
I asked you then if you worked for CCHQ. I'm now becoming even more suspicious that you do.
You're a tory party wonk aren't you?1 -
Yes, I agree with the summary. T and H it seems is now in the history books as the biggest by-election win in terms of overcoming a majority. Lots of those blue shire seats could flip with a bit of tactical voting.JACK_W said:Jack W(rap)
Wakefield - Decent Labour result hampered by solid showing from two independents (Shame David Herdson didn't retain his deposit) Generally Labour doesn't do Orpington in by-elections. Red Wall Tories will be feeling much more uncomfortable this morning.
T&H - Spectacular yellow peril win that will have many Tories in the south west clutching their pearls, drawing up their skirts and contemplating their post parliamentary careers. The LibDems are fully back in the West Country.
Overall the two words that will haunt the Tories - Tactical Voting.3 -
Good summary.MJW said:
Big differences though, say what you like about Osborne and Cameron, and I thought it was economically bad even though politically clever, but they had a plan to cut early and then loosen things near a GE, escaped a full on recession that many think is on the cards now. Can the same be said of the current Tories? There's little doubt there'll be tax cuts but enough to alleviate the "are you better off?" question? These problems don't look temporary - inflation isn't going away yet, energy costs likely to hit harder this winter, certainly not enough for people to feel better off by 2024. Boris is much more unpopular than Cameron - particularly with a now key demographic of liberal conservative voters who stuck with the party in 2019 in part thanks to Corbyn but are pretty disgusted by the culture war direction of the Tories. Starmer, though far from perfect, is also in a significantly better personal polling place than Ed M - unloved, but not hated or regarded as a joke - as is issue polling where Labour are no longer always miles behind on the economy, etc.edmundintokyo said:
I mean the polls are looking pretty Ed-Milliband-ish, Labour's leader is acceptable but not wildly loved, they just got a decent swing in a by-election but not a monster one, there are some economic problems that may well be temporary. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯Scott_xP said:
It really isn'tedmundintokyo said:Right now it's still a little bit hard to call either way.
A big one though is that Lib Dem and Labour parties and voters aren't at odds for the first time probably since 2001. What got Cameron his majority in 2015 was the collapse of the Lib Dems as Tory-leaning voters ditched them as pointless, and left-leaning ones refused to vote for a party that had aligned itself against them. Signs are that's reversing as left-wingers just want the Tories out and opposing Brexit may have washed away some sins, and can play opposition politics to attract more right-wing ones. A moderate improvement on Ed Miliband then for Labour, plus a few inroads in Scotland, would probably be enough to unseat an uncoalitionable Conservative Party.
On current polling, “a few” inroads is all Starmer and Sarwar are going to manage in Scotland, if that.
The last full-sample Scottish poll had Labour on just 22%, and although the latest YouGov sub-sample had them on 29%, that would only gain them a handful of SNP seats.
Last 3 YouGov polls, the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples:
Voting intention - Scotland
Reverse chronological order
(+/- change from last UK GE)
SNP 40 49 48 average 46% (+1)
SLab 29 16 18 average 21% (+2)
SCon 17 21 18 average 19% (-6)
SLD 6 8 10 average 8% (-2)
Grn 3 4 5 average 4% (+3)
Ref 3 0 1 average 1% (-)
oth (primarily Alba) 2 3 1 average 2% (+1)
Yes parties 52% (+5)
No parties 49% (-4)
We desperately need some proper, full-sample polling.
We got one for Wales the other day, but no Scottish polling in ages. Why?0 -
Deputy heads will roll. Will Dowden quitting as party chair mean an end to culture wars? I doubt it.JACK_W said:BBC - Oliver Dowden resigns
0 -
Falling on his sword, rather than a shot at the leader.JACK_W said:BBC - Oliver Dowden resigns
https://twitter.com/OliverDowden/status/1540191893258207232
It ought to shame the mangy cur, but it won’t.3 -
Nuclear war might take the voters minds off Partygate?Scott_xP said:
Can’t believe Rwanda didn’t save the Conservatives. What next? Something even more bonkers or unpleasant?edmundintokyo said:Right but what if after that it's the winter of love
https://twitter.com/ayeshahazarika/status/1540185854286626817
The only place BoZo has left to go is Brexit with a vengeance, and it doesn't work
0 -
I agree, save for your take on Herders. I think David was caught in the pincer movement of the very strong media focus on the dual by-elections and one candidate giving Boris a good kicking in each seat and another strong independent. I feared David would struggle to reach half of the deposit threshold.StuartDickson said:
Good summary.JACK_W said:Jack W(rap)
Wakefield - Decent Labour result hampered by solid showing from two independents (Shame David Herdson didn't retain his deposit) Generally Labour doesn't do Orpington in by-elections. Red Wall Tories will be feeling much more uncomfortable this morning.
T&H - Spectacular yellow peril win that will have many Tories in the south west clutching their pearls, drawing up their skirts and contemplating their post parliamentary careers. The LibDems are fully back in the West Country.
Overall the two words that will haunt the Tories - Tactical Voting.
The two words haunting the Scottish Tories are - Tactical Unwind. In the Post-Ruth-Davidson-Party era, gey few SLab and SLD voters will be putting their crosses in the blue box.
I think Starmer’s rank cowardice over the strikes is depressing the Labour vote. By all means oppose union extremism, but looking at the merits, this round of strikes is entirely justified.
The local elections were in retrospect a warning sign for Labour: +22 councillors net in England is so pathetic you are nearly lost for words. Mid-term against the most useless government in living memory.
Terrific Lib Dem performance. They need to keep up the momentum by getting into the media with some persuasive voices. Then looks at Lib Dem front bench… oh dear! They desperately need new blood. They will likely get that now as membership numbers tick up.
(The David Herdson result is very poor. I think that YP brand is a dead end.)2 -
Dowden resigns - “someone needs to take responsibility”. A very pointed line, in the circs…3
-
Yes, I have warned about the Surrey seats and I think a significant number are going to turn yellow. Dominic Raab will lose his seat. Jeremy Hunt may too. Kwasi Kwarteng, Jonathan Lord are also not safe. I'd rule nothing out. Half the swing of last night would see Michael Gove lose his seat.Foxy said:
Yes, I agree with the summary. T and H it seems is now in the history books as the biggest by-election win in terms of overcoming a majority. Lots of those blue shire seats could flip with a bit of tactical voting.JACK_W said:Jack W(rap)
Wakefield - Decent Labour result hampered by solid showing from two independents (Shame David Herdson didn't retain his deposit) Generally Labour doesn't do Orpington in by-elections. Red Wall Tories will be feeling much more uncomfortable this morning.
T&H - Spectacular yellow peril win that will have many Tories in the south west clutching their pearls, drawing up their skirts and contemplating their post parliamentary careers. The LibDems are fully back in the West Country.
Overall the two words that will haunt the Tories - Tactical Voting.
People are really angry. They will vent it at the General Election.1 -
I seem to remember you getting very offended when posters suggested that you might not be all you pretended to beHeathener said:
I think a little more humility might be inMoonRabbit said:
You have it so wrong. JFoxy said:
No, that is nonsense. The first Lab gain in a by-election in years. Not as spectacular as the LD result in Devon, but this puts Starmer comfortably in Number 10, the only question is whether as minority or majority government.MoonRabbit said:
You can state Fantasy and hopes as much as you want, as much as Horse, Heathener and Roger too. I deal in facts.Gardenwalker said:
The result is very mildly disappointing for Labour. There’s no excitement for Keir and his project. But it’s a good enough win, and importantly I believe it shows that it is over for the Tories.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Moon is one of these posters where onceGardenwalker said:
Keir is doing “enough”.MoonRabbit said:
No it’s not! They got 1% more than the Torys managed at the GE, in mid term against this background? It’s an awful result for Labour.Gardenwalker said:
No, Labour’s performance is good enough.MoonRabbit said:
Remainia more a problem for Tory’s by far than leaverstan. After locals and this, that’s unarguable now.Gardenwalker said:
Boris, do one.MoonRabbit said:6K win for Lib Dems! Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa that’s more like it
Earthquake
The red wall is heading home.
It’s just overshadowed by the blue wall in full collapse. This is beyond the LD’s wildest dreams.
Where are you getting Red Wall coming
home at GE from this flop?
I don’t like him much, and seemingly nobody else does, but he will be next PM barring a Johnson ouster.
The Tories are sleepwalking to defeat.
There’s nothing left in the tank. Nothing.
We can say goodbye to the idea of an early election, too.
they’ve made up their mind it’s like talking to
a brick wall
The next election is now simply about whether Labour can scrape a majority.
Labour can’t even be confident of holding Wakefield at a GE on this result, with the hand sitters coming back, let alone tougher challenges in the Red Wall - that’s fact. That’s the fact this result screams at us. Far tougher red wall challenges than this at next GE, and they even have fight on to defend this.
Labour got better Red Wall results than this flop on local election night.
The polling of the seat gave them a better result than this.
Tonight was a Labour flop, once it all sinks in.
Your man Johnson is now a total liability.
order from the person who assured me the Tories would win T&H.
I asked you then if you worked for CCHQ. I'm now becoming even more suspicious that you do.
You're a tory party wonk aren't you?0 -
Not on this occasion. JJ may complain about it but it's true. If you're not in this country you won't get the visceral anger and hurt that there is.edmundintokyo said:
I may definitely be missing something from not being able to feel the general vibe on the streets, but equally sometimes the distance helps you remain objective.Heathener said:
MarqueeMark very rudely dismissed my suggestions, but people are really angry. The likes of Tokyo Edmund and UAE Sandpit don't get it because they aren't here.
The latest SavantaComRes has Labour 11% ahead and with tactical voting the Conservatives are heading for a crushing General Election defeat. Removing Johnson may help but it may already be too late.
1992-7 Redux.
And to JJ: as per my Exeter comments yesterday, I know Tiverton & Honiton really really well.
Red wall? I haven't much of a clue although I did bet correctly on the Brexit result and won a lot. Could see that one coming because I worked in a desolate disenfranchised seat.
You do need to be of the people to get the people ...0 -
I defer to your greater knowledge. I know almost zilch about the local lie of the land and the campaign. I’m just looking at the headline results and thinking of the history of new parties on the scene. In the last 150 years, only one new party has broken through in England: Labour. I’d guess that well over 1000 other parties have tried and failed, the Yorkshire Party being a minnow in that large shoal of small fish.JACK_W said:
I agree, save for your take on Herders. I think David was caught in the pincer movement of the very strong media focus on the dual by-elections and one candidate giving Boris a good kicking in each seat and another strong independent. I feared David would struggle to reach half of the deposit threshold.StuartDickson said:
Good summary.JACK_W said:Jack W(rap)
Wakefield - Decent Labour result hampered by solid showing from two independents (Shame David Herdson didn't retain his deposit) Generally Labour doesn't do Orpington in by-elections. Red Wall Tories will be feeling much more uncomfortable this morning.
T&H - Spectacular yellow peril win that will have many Tories in the south west clutching their pearls, drawing up their skirts and contemplating their post parliamentary careers. The LibDems are fully back in the West Country.
Overall the two words that will haunt the Tories - Tactical Voting.
The two words haunting the Scottish Tories are - Tactical Unwind. In the Post-Ruth-Davidson-Party era, gey few SLab and SLD voters will be putting their crosses in the blue box.
I think Starmer’s rank cowardice over the strikes is depressing the Labour vote. By all means oppose union extremism, but looking at the merits, this round of strikes is entirely justified.
The local elections were in retrospect a warning sign for Labour: +22 councillors net in England is so pathetic you are nearly lost for words. Mid-term against the most useless government in living memory.
Terrific Lib Dem performance. They need to keep up the momentum by getting into the media with some persuasive voices. Then looks at Lib Dem front bench… oh dear! They desperately need new blood. They will likely get that now as membership numbers tick up.
(The David Herdson result is very poor. I think that YP brand is a dead end.)0 -
The anti-Tory party, which dominated UK politics for around 15 years between 1992 and 2007 - and which was still strong enough to deny them a majority in 2010 - is back with a bang. It’s great to see.2
-
Don’t forget they were pre VONCFoxy said:
Though his canvassing reports from T and H were not borne out by the result. Activists do inevitably talk up their own party but even so his were either a misrepresentation or were self delusion. A numpty for a Tory candidate didn't help I suppose.Nigelb said:
I’d be very interested to hear @MarqueeMark ’s reaction.Heathener said:Heathener said:Mornin' all.
Tiverton & Honiton is going to be a thumping LibDem win.
It will send a shockwave and probably hasten the end of Boris Johnson.Heathener said:By the way, I'm sure this has been picked up but re. the last thread, this might not even rank in the Top 10 by-election swings? The LibDems need, by my reckoning, a 22% swing and I think they will have a swing of 30%+
It's going to be big but here are the list of record swings:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_by-election_records#Largest_swings
MarqueeMark very rudely dismissed my suggestions, but people are really angry. The likes of Tokyo Edmund and UAE Sandpit don't get it because they aren't here.Heathener said:Good morning.
I suspect a lot of you, and the markets, are going to be surprised at the size of the LibDem win in Tiverton & Honiton.
The latest SavantaComRes has Labour 11% ahead and with tactical voting the Conservatives are heading for a crushing General Election defeat. Removing Johnson may help but it may already be too late.
1992-7 Redux.
He is a shrewd observer of his party.
Well done Heathener, I thought T and H too ambitious for the LDs.. I won on Wakefield turnout, T and H Tory share, and Akbar for 3rd place, but lost on Tories holding T and H, and Greens in 3rd in Wakefield. Overall pretty even on the night betting wise, and delighted politically.
He sat on his hands after that point and it looks like voters did the same
0 -
I've never thought they would remove him.edmundintokyo said:Heathener said:
MarqueeMark very rudely dismissed my suggestions, but people are really angry. The likes of Tokyo Edmund and UAE Sandpit don't get it because they aren't here.
The latest SavantaComRes has Labour 11% ahead and with tactical voting the Conservatives are heading for a crushing General Election defeat. Removing Johnson may help but it may already be too late.
1992-7 Redux.
Not very long ago the consensus of people here feeling the anger on the ground seemed to be that Boris Johnson was clearly going to get removed by his party over the thing with the parties, while more disinterested people thought it was only a medium-sized scandal
And your comment about the parties really really shows how out of touch you are in your far off land. People are really angry and hurt. We gave up so much during those lockdowns whilst that wicked clown was running a booze den in No.10.
If you don't get this I'm afraid you (plural not you personally) will continue to call this wrong.1 -
I think Mr Herdson would make a good Lib Dem. Like lots of other decent and honest former Conservative voters.StuartDickson said:
Good summary.JACK_W said:Jack W(rap)
Wakefield - Decent Labour result hampered by solid showing from two independents (Shame David Herdson didn't retain his deposit) Generally Labour doesn't do Orpington in by-elections. Red Wall Tories will be feeling much more uncomfortable this morning.
T&H - Spectacular yellow peril win that will have many Tories in the south west clutching their pearls, drawing up their skirts and contemplating their post parliamentary careers. The LibDems are fully back in the West Country.
Overall the two words that will haunt the Tories - Tactical Voting.
The two words haunting the Scottish Tories are - Tactical Unwind. In the Post-Ruth-Davidson-Party era, gey few SLab and SLD voters will be putting their crosses in the blue box.
I think Starmer’s rank cowardice over the strikes is depressing the Labour vote. By all means oppose union extremism, but looking at the merits, this round of strikes is entirely justified.
The local elections were in retrospect a warning sign for Labour: +22 councillors net in England is so pathetic you are nearly lost for words. Mid-term against the most useless government in living memory.
Terrific Lib Dem performance. They need to keep up the momentum by getting into the media with some persuasive voices. Then looks at Lib Dem front bench… oh dear! They desperately need new blood. They will likely get that now as membership numbers tick up.
(The David Herdson result is very poor. I think that YP brand is a dead end.)0 -
Much as I like David Herdson's writings, and his disillusion with the Tory party, the YP is a dead end. It might stand a chance as a regional party under PR, but under FPTP is going nowhere.JACK_W said:
I agree, save for your take on Herders. I think David was caught in the pincer movement of the very strong media focus on the dual by-elections and one candidate giving Boris a good kicking in each seat and another strong independent. I feared David would struggle to reach half of the deposit threshold.StuartDickson said:
Good summary.JACK_W said:Jack W(rap)
Wakefield - Decent Labour result hampered by solid showing from two independents (Shame David Herdson didn't retain his deposit) Generally Labour doesn't do Orpington in by-elections. Red Wall Tories will be feeling much more uncomfortable this morning.
T&H - Spectacular yellow peril win that will have many Tories in the south west clutching their pearls, drawing up their skirts and contemplating their post parliamentary careers. The LibDems are fully back in the West Country.
Overall the two words that will haunt the Tories - Tactical Voting.
The two words haunting the Scottish Tories are - Tactical Unwind. In the Post-Ruth-Davidson-Party era, gey few SLab and SLD voters will be putting their crosses in the blue box.
I think Starmer’s rank cowardice over the strikes is depressing the Labour vote. By all means oppose union extremism, but looking at the merits, this round of strikes is entirely justified.
The local elections were in retrospect a warning sign for Labour: +22 councillors net in England is so pathetic you are nearly lost for words. Mid-term against the most useless government in living memory.
Terrific Lib Dem performance. They need to keep up the momentum by getting into the media with some persuasive voices. Then looks at Lib Dem front bench… oh dear! They desperately need new blood. They will likely get that now as membership numbers tick up.
(The David Herdson result is very poor. I think that YP brand is a dead end.)
One further point to note on the night is how poorly the various splitters of the racist far right did in Wakefield. Fransen on 21 votes is barely more than her nomination papers.1 -
Ooh! Some brave soul off topiced me!StillWaters said:
I seem to remember you getting very offended when posters suggested that you might not be all you pretended to beHeathener said:
I think a little more humility might be inMoonRabbit said:
You have it so wrong. JFoxy said:
No, that is nonsense. The first Lab gain in a by-election in years. Not as spectacular as the LD result in Devon, but this puts Starmer comfortably in Number 10, the only question is whether as minority or majority government.MoonRabbit said:
You can state Fantasy and hopes as much as you want, as much as Horse, Heathener and Roger too. I deal in facts.Gardenwalker said:
The result is very mildly disappointing for Labour. There’s no excitement for Keir and his project. But it’s a good enough win, and importantly I believe it shows that it is over for the Tories.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Moon is one of these posters where onceGardenwalker said:
Keir is doing “enough”.MoonRabbit said:
No it’s not! They got 1% more than the Torys managed at the GE, in mid term against this background? It’s an awful result for Labour.Gardenwalker said:
No, Labour’s performance is good enough.MoonRabbit said:
Remainia more a problem for Tory’s by far than leaverstan. After locals and this, that’s unarguable now.Gardenwalker said:
Boris, do one.MoonRabbit said:6K win for Lib Dems! Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa that’s more like it
Earthquake
The red wall is heading home.
It’s just overshadowed by the blue wall in full collapse. This is beyond the LD’s wildest dreams.
Where are you getting Red Wall coming
home at GE from this flop?
I don’t like him much, and seemingly nobody else does, but he will be next PM barring a Johnson ouster.
The Tories are sleepwalking to defeat.
There’s nothing left in the tank. Nothing.
We can say goodbye to the idea of an early election, too.
they’ve made up their mind it’s like talking to
a brick wall
The next election is now simply about whether Labour can scrape a majority.
Labour can’t even be confident of holding Wakefield at a GE on this result, with the hand sitters coming back, let alone tougher challenges in the Red Wall - that’s fact. That’s the fact this result screams at us. Far tougher red wall challenges than this at next GE, and they even have fight on to defend this.
Labour got better Red Wall results than this flop on local election night.
The polling of the seat gave them a better result than this.
Tonight was a Labour flop, once it all sinks in.
Your man Johnson is now a total liability.
order from the person who assured me the Tories would win T&H.
I asked you then if you worked for CCHQ. I'm now becoming even more suspicious that you do.
You're a tory party wonk aren't you?0 -
So, you’d be voting SNP if you lived in Buchan?SouthamObserver said:The anti-Tory party, which dominated UK politics for around 15 years between 1992 and 2007 - and which was still strong enough to deny them a majority in 2010 - is back with a bang. It’s great to see.
0 -
Dowden also spared the morning interview round?2
-
In gentler days and times of yore such a resignation would be expected and not drawn cynicism. Today we note casually it's another one cut of the thousand cuts bleeding Boris and the Tories to electoral death.IanB2 said:Dowden resigns - “someone needs to take responsibility”. A very pointed line, in the circs…
3 -
The LibDem victory is even more striking from the percentages - 53% to 39%1
-
It is also noteworthy how Dowden signs off his letter “I will always remain loyal to the Conservative Party”.
In the space where he might have promised continued support for the Johnson government from the backbenches….2 -
Is anyone going into bat for Johnson this morning? Surely they can’t just all not say anything?!!0
-
It's a fantastic and very welcome shoeing for the Government.Nigelb said:
The largest numerical majority ever overturned (I think) at a by election is not quite a typical result.DecrepiterJohnL said:
It might be the other way round. Consider two different classes of Conservative MP — it might be easier for blue wall Tories to dismiss Tiverton & Honiton as a typical LibDem by-election win that will not carry over to a general election; red wall Tories are surely more likely to see the Wakefield result as an existential threat to their own seats as voters return to Labour.Nigelb said:
No, but T&H certainly is.Andy_JS said:The Wakefield result probably isn't bad enough for the Tories to bring about a renewed leadership challenge.
Big Dog has become a mangy cur.
Those of us who have had more than enough of the Johnsonian Tories can take a lot of encouragement from this - if Labour can put the bricks back in the Red Wall and the Liberal Democrats make even a modest number of gains in the South, that should be sufficient to throw them out of office. But it's also equally possible that enough of the Conservative vote goes back home (and I'm thinking particularly about the well-to-do elderly core here, who do very well indeed out of the inflationary house price environment, and are bound to have more bungs thrown at them by the Chancellor before polling day) over the course of a GE campaign to undo most of the progress.
Even with the truly gargantuan swing in Devon, I won't believe we're rid of them until I see it.1 -
Tiverton & Honiton was not a Blue Wall seat. It was a Blue Castle surrounded by a Blue Moat penned in by a deep Blue Ditch seat. But all defences have been blown away. The anti-Tory party is relentless and cruel.4
-
I predicted the Tories would lose both seats but Boris would stay. Sadly - for the Conservative Party - this appears to be accurate on all counts
Boris is clearly steering his Party to a catastrophic defeat. They need to oust him now
Recall the Golden Bough. The sacrifice of the king propitiates the angry gods, and thus the tribe is saved. It is time to propitiate; because the gods - AKA the voters - are VERY angry1 -
I am a patriot, therefore I am an anti-Tory!StuartDickson said:
So, you’d be voting SNP if you lived in Buchan?SouthamObserver said:The anti-Tory party, which dominated UK politics for around 15 years between 1992 and 2007 - and which was still strong enough to deny them a majority in 2010 - is back with a bang. It’s great to see.
0 -
Trump - “Just say the election was corrupt and leave the rest to me and the Republican congressmen”. This is the smoking gun. Coupled with other testimony demonstrates both Trump’s substantive involvement and corrupt intent, requisite state of mind.
https://twitter.com/EricHolder/status/15400604308019855361 -
You sure it’s not the anti-Boris party?SouthamObserver said:The anti-Tory party, which dominated UK politics for around 15 years between 1992 and 2007 - and which was still strong enough to deny them a majority in 2010 - is back with a bang. It’s great to see.
Much more easily fixed.
And don’t forget your notional “anti-Tory” party had a charismatic alternative to focus upon. A politician now widely reviled in the party he then led.0 -
Very notably no message of support for the PM from Dowden. He declares his loyalty to the Conservative party and says things can’t go on this way. But they can - and they will.1
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I thought we were relentlessly, but moderately inoffensive ?SouthamObserver said:Tiverton & Honiton was not a Blue Wall seat. It was a Blue Castle surrounded by a Blue Moat penned in by a deep Blue Ditch seat. But all defences have been blown away. The anti-Tory party is relentless and cruel.
0 -
A change of PM doesn’t seem to be worrying the old folks of Devon…edmundintokyo said:
Reactionary grievance is a political tool not a magic wand. They're not going to run out of ways the world might change that old people find worrying.Scott_xP said:
Can’t believe Rwanda didn’t save the Conservatives. What next? Something even more bonkers or unpleasant?edmundintokyo said:Right but what if after that it's the winter of love
https://twitter.com/ayeshahazarika/status/1540185854286626817
The only place BoZo has left to go is Brexit with a vengeance, and it doesn't work1 -
I will complain because it's a rubbish example of projection. "I think this way, therefore everyone else does."Heathener said:
Not on this occasion. JJ may complain about it but it's true. If you're not in this country you won't get the visceral anger and hurt that there is.edmundintokyo said:
I may definitely be missing something from not being able to feel the general vibe on the streets, but equally sometimes the distance helps you remain objective.Heathener said:
MarqueeMark very rudely dismissed my suggestions, but people are really angry. The likes of Tokyo Edmund and UAE Sandpit don't get it because they aren't here.
The latest SavantaComRes has Labour 11% ahead and with tactical voting the Conservatives are heading for a crushing General Election defeat. Removing Johnson may help but it may already be too late.
1992-7 Redux.
And to JJ: as per my Exeter comments yesterday, I know Tiverton & Honiton really really well.
Red wall? I haven't much of a clue although I did bet correctly on the Brexit result and won a lot. Could see that one coming because I worked in a desolate disenfranchised seat.
You do need to be of the people to get the people ...
And before anyone says: the two by-election results last night were a deserved trouncing for the Conservatives; Johnson could go; most Tory MPs are spineless idiots for not voting against him; etc, etc.0 -
Getting that way with Tories* also.Foxy said:
No, I don't think so, but her claim to be an LD is not very plausible. I have never met an LD who sings Johnsons praises.Heathener said:
I think a little more humility might be in order from the person who assured me the Tories would win T&H.MoonRabbit said:
You have it so wrong. JFoxy said:
No, that is nonsense. The first Lab gain in a by-election in years. Not as spectacular as the LD result in Devon, but this puts Starmer comfortably in Number 10, the only question is whether as minority or majority government.MoonRabbit said:
You can state Fantasy and hopes as much as you want, as much as Horse, Heathener and Roger too. I deal in facts.Gardenwalker said:
The result is very mildly disappointing for Labour. There’s no excitement for Keir and his project. But it’s a good enough win, and importantly I believe it shows that it is over for the Tories.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Moon is one of these posters where onceGardenwalker said:
Keir is doing “enough”.MoonRabbit said:
No it’s not! They got 1% more than the Torys managed at the GE, in mid term against this background? It’s an awful result for Labour.Gardenwalker said:
No, Labour’s performance is good enough.MoonRabbit said:
Remainia more a problem for Tory’s by far than leaverstan. After locals and this, that’s unarguable now.Gardenwalker said:
Boris, do one.MoonRabbit said:6K win for Lib Dems! Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa that’s more like it
Earthquake
The red wall is heading home.
It’s just overshadowed by the blue wall in full collapse. This is beyond the LD’s wildest dreams.
Where are you getting Red Wall coming
home at GE from this flop?
I don’t like him much, and seemingly nobody else does, but he will be next PM barring a Johnson ouster.
The Tories are sleepwalking to defeat.
There’s nothing left in the tank. Nothing.
We can say goodbye to the idea of an early election, too.
they’ve made up their mind it’s like talking to
a brick wall
The next election is now simply about whether Labour can scrape a majority.
Labour can’t even be confident of holding Wakefield at a GE on this result, with the hand sitters coming back, let alone tougher challenges in the Red Wall - that’s fact. That’s the fact this result screams at us. Far tougher red wall challenges than this at next GE, and they even have fight on to defend this.
Labour got better Red Wall results than this flop on local election night.
The polling of the seat gave them a better result than this.
Tonight was a Labour flop, once it all sinks in.
Your man Johnson is now a total liability.
I asked you then if you worked for CCHQ. I'm now becoming even more suspicious that you do.
You're a tory party wonk aren't you?
*Excepting those on the Payroll.
1 -
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"Far off land"Heathener said:
I've never thought they would remove him.edmundintokyo said:Heathener said:
MarqueeMark very rudely dismissed my suggestions, but people are really angry. The likes of Tokyo Edmund and UAE Sandpit don't get it because they aren't here.
The latest SavantaComRes has Labour 11% ahead and with tactical voting the Conservatives are heading for a crushing General Election defeat. Removing Johnson may help but it may already be too late.
1992-7 Redux.
Not very long ago the consensus of people here feeling the anger on the ground seemed to be that Boris Johnson was clearly going to get removed by his party over the thing with the parties, while more disinterested people thought it was only a medium-sized scandal
And your comment about the parties really really shows how out of touch you are in your far off land. People are really angry and hurt. We gave up so much during those lockdowns whilst that wicked clown was running a booze den in No.10.
If you don't get this I'm afraid you (plural not you personally) will continue to call this wrong.
Stop trolling.0 -
I would happily see him join, but the LD approach to Brexit probably put him off. The significant influx of ultra-Remainers into the party between 2016-19 risked the LDs becoming a single issue party. Davey is managing that influx much better than Swinson did, keeping the LDs a pro-European party, but with a more plausible and sellable gradualist approach to rejoining the political and economic structures of Europe.ClippP said:
I think Mr Herdson would make a good Lib Dem. Like lots of other decent and honest former Conservative voters.StuartDickson said:
Good summary.JACK_W said:Jack W(rap)
Wakefield - Decent Labour result hampered by solid showing from two independents (Shame David Herdson didn't retain his deposit) Generally Labour doesn't do Orpington in by-elections. Red Wall Tories will be feeling much more uncomfortable this morning.
T&H - Spectacular yellow peril win that will have many Tories in the south west clutching their pearls, drawing up their skirts and contemplating their post parliamentary careers. The LibDems are fully back in the West Country.
Overall the two words that will haunt the Tories - Tactical Voting.
The two words haunting the Scottish Tories are - Tactical Unwind. In the Post-Ruth-Davidson-Party era, gey few SLab and SLD voters will be putting their crosses in the blue box.
I think Starmer’s rank cowardice over the strikes is depressing the Labour vote. By all means oppose union extremism, but looking at the merits, this round of strikes is entirely justified.
The local elections were in retrospect a warning sign for Labour: +22 councillors net in England is so pathetic you are nearly lost for words. Mid-term against the most useless government in living memory.
Terrific Lib Dem performance. They need to keep up the momentum by getting into the media with some persuasive voices. Then looks at Lib Dem front bench… oh dear! They desperately need new blood. They will likely get that now as membership numbers tick up.
(The David Herdson result is very poor. I think that YP brand is a dead end.)
I think Davey is showing some star quality. Not just his getting the byelection machine back on the road, but reinvigorating and regenerating the party internally very successfully.
2 -
That Dowden letter is a classic: “Our supporters are distressed…” 😄 He must be a PB lurker.1
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Johnson is the best the Tories have. That is the problem.Leon said:I predicted the Tories would lose both seats but Boris would stay. Sadly - for the Conservative Party - this appears to be accurate on all counts
Boris is clearly steering his Party to a catastrophic defeat. They need to oust him now
Recall the Golden Bough. The sacrifice of the king propitiates the angry gods, and thus the tribe is saved. It is time to propitiate; because the gods - AKA the voters - are VERY angry
0 -
Good morning
I had a good night's sleep last night as I had no doubt whatsoever that the conservative party would lose both elections
Congratulations to both Labour and the Lib Dems and any conservative who still thinks Boris should be PM is not only in denial but looking at an extinction event
Boris is out of the country for the next week and while he is away his mps and the 148 need to come together and plot his removal
Oliver Dowden resignation this morning is a breath of fresh air as finally a conservative mp has accepted responsibility and it can only be hoped cabinet members also decide to join him thereby fatally undermining Johnson's (yes on this occasion Johnson) premiership2 -
Is it ?CarlottaVance said:
You sure it’s not the anti-Boris party?SouthamObserver said:The anti-Tory party, which dominated UK politics for around 15 years between 1992 and 2007 - and which was still strong enough to deny them a majority in 2010 - is back with a bang. It’s great to see.
Much more easily fixed…..
Not with the bunch of spineless lumps currently occupying the backbenches. It might already be too late for them, and they don’t seem to be in any rush to change anything.
0 -
Good morning, everyone.
I look forward to another rousing tune of "This time Boris Johnson will be axed" followed by the classic follow-up "Actually, no he won't".1 -
I concur.ClippP said:
I think Mr Herdson would make a good Lib Dem. Like lots of other decent and honest former Conservative voters.StuartDickson said:
Good summary.JACK_W said:Jack W(rap)
Wakefield - Decent Labour result hampered by solid showing from two independents (Shame David Herdson didn't retain his deposit) Generally Labour doesn't do Orpington in by-elections. Red Wall Tories will be feeling much more uncomfortable this morning.
T&H - Spectacular yellow peril win that will have many Tories in the south west clutching their pearls, drawing up their skirts and contemplating their post parliamentary careers. The LibDems are fully back in the West Country.
Overall the two words that will haunt the Tories - Tactical Voting.
The two words haunting the Scottish Tories are - Tactical Unwind. In the Post-Ruth-Davidson-Party era, gey few SLab and SLD voters will be putting their crosses in the blue box.
I think Starmer’s rank cowardice over the strikes is depressing the Labour vote. By all means oppose union extremism, but looking at the merits, this round of strikes is entirely justified.
The local elections were in retrospect a warning sign for Labour: +22 councillors net in England is so pathetic you are nearly lost for words. Mid-term against the most useless government in living memory.
Terrific Lib Dem performance. They need to keep up the momentum by getting into the media with some persuasive voices. Then looks at Lib Dem front bench… oh dear! They desperately need new blood. They will likely get that now as membership numbers tick up.
(The David Herdson result is very poor. I think that YP brand is a dead end.)
David Herdson would be very welcome in the SNP if he ever moves to Scotland, as would other decent and honest former Conservative voters.0 -
I thought the Lib Dems attack line which was intended to appeal to farmers in the seat was very good . Not attacking Brexit but the Tories selling farmers down the river with their new and future trade deals.3
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Nothing concentrates a man’s mind than the knowledge that he is to be hanged in the morning…Nigelb said:
Is it ?CarlottaVance said:
You sure it’s not the anti-Boris party?SouthamObserver said:The anti-Tory party, which dominated UK politics for around 15 years between 1992 and 2007 - and which was still strong enough to deny them a majority in 2010 - is back with a bang. It’s great to see.
Much more easily fixed…..
Not with the bunch of spineless lumps currently occupying the backbenches. It might already be too late for them, and they don’t seem to be in any rush to change anything.
I rate their self-preservation instincts more highly…1 -
I recall a few Tories stating that Lab would be tainted for a good while cos Corbyn. I wonder if they'll accept that this might also apply to record breaking Boris?Nigelb said:
Is it ?CarlottaVance said:
You sure it’s not the anti-Boris party?SouthamObserver said:The anti-Tory party, which dominated UK politics for around 15 years between 1992 and 2007 - and which was still strong enough to deny them a majority in 2010 - is back with a bang. It’s great to see.
Much more easily fixed…..
Not with the bunch of spineless lumps currently occupying the backbenches. It might already be too late for them, and they don’t seem to be in any rush to change anything.2 -
I deduce from many previous remarks that you're desperate to avoid being governed by the Wokies, but I'm afraid a bit of rebalancing away from the relentless pursuit of the priorities of the elderly is way, way overdue. An endless succession of Governments that, essentially, drain the majority of the nation of money, services and opportunities, just so that retired homeowners can sit on ever-growing asset values and pass them onto their heirs intact, will end in economic and social disintegration.Leon said:I predicted the Tories would lose both seats but Boris would stay. Sadly - for the Conservative Party - this appears to be accurate on all counts
Boris is clearly steering his Party to a catastrophic defeat. They need to oust him now
Recall the Golden Bough. The sacrifice of the king propitiates the angry gods, and thus the tribe is saved. It is time to propitiate; because the gods - AKA the voters - are VERY angry
The entire post-1979 settlement stopped being about aspiration (for the fortunate) as soon as the state ran out of council houses to flog off, and started being about soaring asset values and the redistribution of wealth upwards. A good dose of redistribution back down the income scale is now necessary. And if, in the process, the Tory core has to put up with some social liberalism that it finds distasteful, then tough. If it should come to pass, a heavy Conservative defeat at the next election that allows this to happen will be as much a monument to their greed as it will be to Johnson's self-absorption and venality.5 -
The anti-Tory party got started before Blair was Labour leader and was strong enough to cost the Tories a majority after he’d gone.CarlottaVance said:
You sure it’s not the anti-Boris party?SouthamObserver said:The anti-Tory party, which dominated UK politics for around 15 years between 1992 and 2007 - and which was still strong enough to deny them a majority in 2010 - is back with a bang. It’s great to see.
Much more easily fixed.
And don’t forget your notional “anti-Tory” party had a charismatic alternative to focus upon. A politician now widely reviled in the party he then led.
Johnson is very clearly a huge asset to the anti-Tory party, but it’s not as if there’s anyone better waiting in the wings.
0 -
I would just caution your criticism that as a poster is abroad their views are not relevantHeathener said:
I've never thought they would remove him.edmundintokyo said:Heathener said:
MarqueeMark very rudely dismissed my suggestions, but people are really angry. The likes of Tokyo Edmund and UAE Sandpit don't get it because they aren't here.
The latest SavantaComRes has Labour 11% ahead and with tactical voting the Conservatives are heading for a crushing General Election defeat. Removing Johnson may help but it may already be too late.
1992-7 Redux.
Not very long ago the consensus of people here feeling the anger on the ground seemed to be that Boris Johnson was clearly going to get removed by his party over the thing with the parties, while more disinterested people thought it was only a medium-sized scandal
And your comment about the parties really really shows how out of touch you are in your far off land. People are really angry and hurt. We gave up so much during those lockdowns whilst that wicked clown was running a booze den in No.10.
If you don't get this I'm afraid you (plural not you personally) will continue to call this wrong.
We have several posters regularly posting from abroad including @Sandpit, @Gardenwalker, @SeaShantyIrish2, @Cicero and others and they should be respected even if you do not agree with their point of view2 -
Nah. There’s half a dozen names in the top 20 on the Next Con Leader market who would be better than Johnson. However, knowing the dire culture within the party, it is pretty much guaranteed that they’ll pick one of the 14 absolute duffers.SouthamObserver said:
Johnson is the best the Tories have. That is the problem.Leon said:I predicted the Tories would lose both seats but Boris would stay. Sadly - for the Conservative Party - this appears to be accurate on all counts
Boris is clearly steering his Party to a catastrophic defeat. They need to oust him now
Recall the Golden Bough. The sacrifice of the king propitiates the angry gods, and thus the tribe is saved. It is time to propitiate; because the gods - AKA the voters - are VERY angry0 -
Removing him quickly is the logical thing to do, and the only chance of electoral survival for a large number of MPs, I think.Theuniondivvie said:
I recall a few Tories stating that Lab would be tainted for a good while cos Corbyn. I wonder if they'll accept that this might also apply to record breaking Boris?Nigelb said:
Is it ?CarlottaVance said:
You sure it’s not the anti-Boris party?SouthamObserver said:The anti-Tory party, which dominated UK politics for around 15 years between 1992 and 2007 - and which was still strong enough to deny them a majority in 2010 - is back with a bang. It’s great to see.
Much more easily fixed…..
Not with the bunch of spineless lumps currently occupying the backbenches. It might already be too late for them, and they don’t seem to be in any rush to change anything.
Who knows, they might surprise me.0 -
As the BBC is saying, it’s an invitation to other cabinet members to finally man (or woman) up and get him gone.CarlottaVance said:
Nothing concentrates a man’s mind than the knowledge that he is to be hanged in the morning…Nigelb said:
Is it ?CarlottaVance said:
You sure it’s not the anti-Boris party?SouthamObserver said:The anti-Tory party, which dominated UK politics for around 15 years between 1992 and 2007 - and which was still strong enough to deny them a majority in 2010 - is back with a bang. It’s great to see.
Much more easily fixed…..
Not with the bunch of spineless lumps currently occupying the backbenches. It might already be too late for them, and they don’t seem to be in any rush to change anything.
I rate their self-preservation instincts more highly…0 -
Yes, the tactic should not be "I told you so". Despite that being accurate, it is never a good way to persuade. Better to simply whittle away at it by pointing out the adverse impact of the government's policy over a variety of issues.nico679 said:I thought the Lib Dems attack line which was intended to appeal to farmers in the seat was very good . Not attacking Brexit but the Tories selling farmers down the river with their new and future trade deals.
This made me smile yesterday from Harry Cole on twitter:
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1539913813725700100?t=tVMmRfZmu3ds6iYGoePyMQ&s=19
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Gods opening express delivery package in the Underworld: Fckng Hades, it's supposed to be a golden beautiful youth!Leon said:I predicted the Tories would lose both seats but Boris would stay. Sadly - for the Conservative Party - this appears to be accurate on all counts
Boris is clearly steering his Party to a catastrophic defeat. They need to oust him now
Recall the Golden Bough. The sacrifice of the king propitiates the angry gods, and thus the tribe is saved. It is time to propitiate; because the gods - AKA the voters - are VERY angry
Wrath ensues.1 -
pigeon said:
And if, in the process, the Tory core has to put up with some social liberalism that it finds distasteful, then tough. If it should come to pass, a heavy Conservative defeat at the next election that allows this to happen will be as much a monument to their greed as it will be to Johnson's self-absorption and venality.Leon said:I predicted the Tories would lose both seats but Boris would stay. Sadly - for the Conservative Party - this appears to be accurate on all counts
Boris is clearly steering his Party to a catastrophic defeat. They need to oust him now
Recall the Golden Bough. The sacrifice of the king propitiates the angry gods, and thus the tribe is saved. It is time to propitiate; because the gods - AKA the voters - are VERY angry
Wokeness is not “social liberalism”, it is much more sinister than that
I entirely agree with you on the predatory pensioners. We need a government for the young
Unfortunately I don’t think Starmer’s Labour is it. They are as clueless - policy wise - as the Tories.
But then, looking at the headlines in today’s FT, with emergencies across the world from humble Sri Lanka to mighty America, with the EU warning of “terrible splits” in the bloc as Russia shuts off the gas, I wonder if any politician anywhere has even a vague idea how to handle what’s coming our way
Brace
2 -
Lol @ Tory HQ says it doesn’t know whether Dowden will be doing interviews or not…1
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Honest self-appraisal is not a key attribute of the PB Herd in the post-Nabavi/Herdson era.Theuniondivvie said:
I recall a few Tories stating that Lab would be tainted for a good while cos Corbyn. I wonder if they'll accept that this might also apply to record breaking Boris?Nigelb said:
Is it ?CarlottaVance said:
You sure it’s not the anti-Boris party?SouthamObserver said:The anti-Tory party, which dominated UK politics for around 15 years between 1992 and 2007 - and which was still strong enough to deny them a majority in 2010 - is back with a bang. It’s great to see.
Much more easily fixed…..
Not with the bunch of spineless lumps currently occupying the backbenches. It might already be too late for them, and they don’t seem to be in any rush to change anything.0 -
That is the point. Only a right wing English nationalist culture warrior would get past the membership.StuartDickson said:
Nah. There’s half a dozen names in the top 20 on the Next Con Leader market who would be better than Johnson. However, knowing the dire culture within the party, it is pretty much guaranteed that they’ll pick one of the 14 absolute duffers.SouthamObserver said:
Johnson is the best the Tories have. That is the problem.Leon said:I predicted the Tories would lose both seats but Boris would stay. Sadly - for the Conservative Party - this appears to be accurate on all counts
Boris is clearly steering his Party to a catastrophic defeat. They need to oust him now
Recall the Golden Bough. The sacrifice of the king propitiates the angry gods, and thus the tribe is saved. It is time to propitiate; because the gods - AKA the voters - are VERY angry
1 -
I got woken up by the local church bells so I figured I’d read the by election stories. The main thing that pops out is the level of tactical voting. There’s a very obvious voter-preference for “anyone but the Tories”, and that’s what should scare the Blue team right now.1
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A clueless Con spokesperson on what was always going to be a tremendously difficult day for the party. Can’t say I’m surprised. The Conservatives are just plain incompetent.IanB2 said:Lol @ Tory HQ says it doesn’t know whether Dowden will be doing interviews or not…
1 -
Not a chance!!!IanB2 said:
As the BBC is saying, it’s an invitation to other cabinet members to finally man (or woman) up and get him gone.CarlottaVance said:
Nothing concentrates a man’s mind than the knowledge that he is to be hanged in the morning…Nigelb said:
Is it ?CarlottaVance said:
You sure it’s not the anti-Boris party?SouthamObserver said:The anti-Tory party, which dominated UK politics for around 15 years between 1992 and 2007 - and which was still strong enough to deny them a majority in 2010 - is back with a bang. It’s great to see.
Much more easily fixed…..
Not with the bunch of spineless lumps currently occupying the backbenches. It might already be too late for them, and they don’t seem to be in any rush to change anything.
I rate their self-preservation instincts more highly…
0
