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The LDs claim victory in Tiverton & Honiton – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited July 3 in General
The LDs claim victory in Tiverton & Honiton – politicalbetting.com

? Lib Dems declare victory in Tiverton and Honiton. Wiping out a huge 24k vote majority – the biggest ever over-turned in a by-election. A spokesperson said: “This is looking like a clear win. The people of Tiverton and Honiton have spoken up for the country."

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,726
    First like the Lib Dems.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,821
    Anyone but Boris
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,527
    Maybe Boris isn't turning into Jeremy Corbyn, but Nick Clegg.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 19,983
    edited June 24
    Could the rumours of a 10,000 LD majority be true?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,415
    edited June 24
    Well done Heathener. She might have had more encores than Frank Sinatra but she deserves them. She predicted this unique result since the by-election was first announced.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,569
    Even here in New York, five hours behind, I’d quite like the results now so I can get to bed.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,415
    tpfkar said:

    Maybe Boris isn't turning into Jeremy Corbyn, but Nick Clegg.

    Hi Tpfkar. Good to see you for your annual visit. It usually spells good news
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,522
    10 minutes go.

    A reminder 10882 votes is % Labour got last time. Not much more than that it’s abysmal.

    13602 votes is 50% they really need to nudge over to claim good result in special mid term election (any win will be a win at next GE)

    Needs to be nearer 14700 of the 27205 to be a special night that proves something.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,522

    Even here in New York, five hours behind, I’d quite like the results now so I can get to bed.

    We are sitting romantically in the harbour waiting for the sun to come up before we go back to the hotel.
  • pingping Posts: 3,186
    edited June 24
    Looks like the betting markets called both by-elections broadly right.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,527
    edited June 24
    Roger said:

    tpfkar said:

    Maybe Boris isn't turning into Jeremy Corbyn, but Nick Clegg.

    Hi Tpfkar. Good to see you for your annual visit. It usually spells good news
    Thanks Roger. I'm still lurking regularly, reading above the line, but checking out the comments a little more now. Maybe I am finding politics a bit more tolerable now some chickens are coming home to roost for the Blue Team. Stepped down as a councillor last year but still following with interest.

    Glad to see you are on good form as well.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 19,983
    Would Labour be at all bothered if the LD majority in Tiverton is larger than theirs in Wakefield?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,102
    Tory source at Tiverton count suggests the result could be brutal - looking at Lib Dems in the mid 50s %, Tories in the mid 30s.

    We won't know for a while yet but that kind of swing would be far beyond the Lib Dems' wildest dreams.


    https://twitter.com/tomlarkinsky/status/1540164182544465920

    Perhaps Tory MPs will wake up to Johnson now being a liability rather than an asset?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,102
    Sky News say the Tory candidate in Tiverton and Honiton has locked herself in a room at the by-election count and is refusing to speak to the press. Never a good sign.

    https://twitter.com/kevinaschofield/status/1540164832032350208
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 516
    Apparently Helen Hurford has locked herself in a room and refusing to speak to media in T&H
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,569

    Sky News say the Tory candidate in Tiverton and Honiton has locked herself in a room at the by-election count and is refusing to speak to the press. Never a good sign.

    https://twitter.com/kevinaschofield/status/1540164832032350208

    Good. She came across as a bellowing ninny.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,307

    Sky News say the Tory candidate in Tiverton and Honiton has locked herself in a room at the by-election count and is refusing to speak to the press. Never a good sign.

    https://twitter.com/kevinaschofield/status/1540164832032350208

    Like hiding in a fridge, or in a week's worth of overseas summits.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,415

    Sky News say the Tory candidate in Tiverton and Honiton has locked herself in a room at the by-election count and is refusing to speak to the press. Never a good sign.

    https://twitter.com/kevinaschofield/status/1540164832032350208

    A pity she didn't do it earlier. I heard her speak a couple of weeks ago and it wasn't a pretty sight.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,726
    Can I be the first to say "it's a terrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrible night for the Tories".
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,569

    Tory source at Tiverton count suggests the result could be brutal - looking at Lib Dems in the mid 50s %, Tories in the mid 30s.

    We won't know for a while yet but that kind of swing would be far beyond the Lib Dems' wildest dreams.


    https://twitter.com/tomlarkinsky/status/1540164182544465920

    Perhaps Tory MPs will wake up to Johnson now being a liability rather than an asset?

    Could this be the biggest swing EVAH.
    I’ve no idea how they do it. It seems impossible.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,102
    Labour GAIN Wakefield from Conservative.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1540166492620210176
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 19,983
    edited June 24
    Lab 13,166 (47.9%)
    Con 8,241 (30.0%)
    Akbar 2,090 (7.6%)
    Yorkshire 1,182 (4.3%)
    Green 587 (2.1%)
    Reform UK 513 (1.9%)
    LD 508 (1.8%)
    Britain First 311 (1.1%)
    Freedom Alliance 187 (0.7%)
    Loony 171 (0.6%)
    CPA 144 (0.5%)
    Eng Dem 135 (0.5%)
    UKIP 124 (0.5%)
    Northern Ind Party 84 (0.3%)
    Fransen 23 (0.1%)

    Lab maj = 4,925 (17.9%)
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,569
    While we wait.
    This is the worst Beatles “homage” I have ever seen. Who or what is this?

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=pqQfVzNhtfk
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,415
    Excellent result for Labour. About 50%.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,522
    Roger said:

    Excellent result for Labour. About 50%.

    Nope way under 50%. Awful result
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,415

    While we wait.
    This is the worst Beatles “homage” I have ever seen. Who or what is this?

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=pqQfVzNhtfk

    An assault!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,102
    Wakefield parliamentary by-election result

    LAB: 47.9% (+8.1)
    CON: 30.0% (-17.3)
    IND (Akbar): 7.6% (+7.6)
    YRK: 4.3% (+2.4)

    Labour GAIN from Conservative.


    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1540167326003339264

    First Labour by-election gain from Con in a decade…
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,307
    Remarkably, Betfair's Wakefield Labour vote share still seems to be open, though £10 at 1.03 will not make anyone rich.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,734
    What's the swing.
    Tories will take that result I think.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 19,983
    Pulpstar said:

    What's the swing.
    Tories will take that result I think.

    About 12.5% I think.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,522

    Wakefield parliamentary by-election result

    LAB: 47.9% (+8.1)
    CON: 30.0% (-17.3)
    IND (Akbar): 7.6% (+7.6)
    YRK: 4.3% (+2.4)

    Labour GAIN from Conservative.


    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1540167326003339264

    First Labour by-election gain from Con in a decade…

    48%? That’s rubbish. Rubbish Labour. Whatever happens now, THIS sadly is BIG story of the night, how bad Wakefield result was for Labour - a Labour seat narrowly captured by Tories before they turned into the most rubbish government ever, yet Labour struggle in Red Wall yet again, like they did in locals last month

    Mid term of worst government ever, most hopeless PM ever, Partygate, in a seat that’s not even their territory, Labour should have smashed it, not limped to a “not cutting through yet” result

    Don’t agree with me? The Tories got 47% last time.

    This result is just going to put pressure on Labour again to dump their leader before it’s too late, personally I am not happy - I much prefer the boring moderate Starmer than gobby Jack in box Streeting or just plain weird Nandy as best option for removing Boris majority ☹️
    Boring yes, but still the most Primeministerial thing Labour has to offer right now.

    But they can’t get anywhere in Boris Red Wall when it moves out of fantasy opinion polls into real votes.

    What a bummer after all the excitement in this build up to tonight ☹️
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,569
    Labour 47.9%
    12.7% swing.

    I’d say it’s only mildly above “par”.
    Yes it delivers a majority…but it’s a by-election and nobody turned out, even to give a kicking to the nonce-fielders.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,102
    That’s a 12.7% swing from Conservative to Labour. Biggest swing to Labour in this Parliament.

    Labour need a 10% swing to win a majority at the next election…


    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1540167981208158208?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 19,983
    edited June 24
    Tiverton & Honiton

    LD 22,563
    Con 16,393
    Lab 1,562
    Green 1,064
    Reform UK 481
    UKIP 241
    Heritage 167
    For Britain 146

    LD maj = 6,170


    LD: 52.9% (+38.1)
    Con: 38.5% (-21.7)
    Lab: 3.7% (-15.9)
    Grn: 2.5% (-1.3)
    Reform UK: 1.1% (+1.1)
    UKIP: 0.6% (-1.1)
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,522
    6K win for Lib Dems! Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa that’s more like it

    Earthquake
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,569
    😹😹😹😹😹😹😹😹😹😹😹😹☝️
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 19,983
    Larger majority for the LDs in Tiverton than Labour in Wakefield.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,569

    That’s a 12.7% swing from Conservative to Labour. Biggest swing to Labour in this Parliament.

    Labour need a 10% swing to win a majority at the next election…


    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1540167981208158208?

    Biggest Tory > Lab swing since the Major years, apparently.

    But not overwhelming.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,569

    6K win for Lib Dems! Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa that’s more like it

    Earthquake

    Boris, do one.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,102
    I wonder if the LibDem result in T&H will eclipse this? “Good, but not spectacular”? It gives ammunition to both Starmer’s critics and supporters. For Johnson, only his critics.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,522

    Labour 47.9%
    12.7% swing.

    I’d say it’s only mildly above “par”.
    Yes it delivers a majority…but it’s a by-election and nobody turned out, even to give a kicking to the nonce-fielders.

    What’s Labours excuse? It’s heavily leave and they’ve made some progress?

    Nah. In this special election against this back drop? They’ve bombed in red wall again.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,522

    6K win for Lib Dems! Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa that’s more like it

    Earthquake

    Boris, do one.
    Remainia more a problem for Tory’s by far than leaverstan. After locals and this, that’s unarguable now.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,569
    Published yesterday; good guidance for how to benchmark these results.

    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1539859093955006465?s=21&t=BxIG4RtwYnIBL0KBK9pfFQ

    TLDR; Wakefield is merely “bad” for the Tories; T&H is Chernobyl-tastic.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,522
    Andy_JS said:

    Tiverton & Honiton

    LD 22,563
    Con 16,393
    Lab 1,562
    Green 1,064
    Reform UK 481
    UKIP 241
    Heritage 167
    For Britain 146

    LD maj = 6,170


    LD: 52.9% (+38.1)
    Con: 38.5% (-21.7)
    Lab: 3.7% (-15.9)
    Grn: 2.5% (-1.3)
    Reform UK: 1.1% (+1.1)
    UKIP: 0.6% (-1.1)

    A 15% win? Whaaaaaaaaat
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited June 24
    Starmer has done it.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 516

    That’s a 12.7% swing from Conservative to Labour. Biggest swing to Labour in this Parliament.

    Labour need a 10% swing to win a majority at the next election…


    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1540167981208158208?

    Biggest Tory > Lab swing since the Major years, apparently.

    But not overwhelming.
    Generally speaking Labour don't do overwhelming by-election results, apart from a few exceptions in the 1990s.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 19,983

    Wakefield parliamentary by-election result

    LAB: 47.9% (+8.1)
    CON: 30.0% (-17.3)
    IND (Akbar): 7.6% (+7.6)
    YRK: 4.3% (+2.4)

    Labour GAIN from Conservative.


    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1540167326003339264

    First Labour by-election gain from Con in a decade…

    48%? That’s rubbish. Rubbish Labour. Whatever happens now, THIS sadly is BIG story of the night, how bad Wakefield result was for Labour - a Labour seat narrowly captured by Tories before they turned into the most rubbish government ever, yet Labour struggle in Red Wall yet again, like they did in locals last month

    Mid term of worst government ever, most hopeless PM ever, Partygate, in a seat that’s not even their territory, Labour should have smashed it, not limped to a “not cutting through yet” result

    Don’t agree with me? The Tories got 47% last time.

    This result is just going to put pressure on Labour again to dump their leader before it’s too late, personally I am not happy - I much prefer the boring moderate Starmer than gobby Jack in box Streeting or just plain weird Nandy as best option for removing Boris majority ☹️
    Boring yes, but still the most Primeministerial thing Labour has to offer right now.

    But they can’t get anywhere in Boris Red Wall when it moves out of fantasy opinion polls into real votes.

    What a bummer after all the excitement in this build up to tonight ☹️
    I agree with your analysis.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,569

    6K win for Lib Dems! Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa that’s more like it

    Earthquake

    Boris, do one.
    Remainia more a problem for Tory’s by far than leaverstan. After locals and this, that’s unarguable now.
    No, Labour’s performance is good enough.
    The red wall is heading home.

    It’s just overshadowed by the blue wall in full collapse. This is beyond the LD’s wildest dreams.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,522
    edited June 24

    6K win for Lib Dems! Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa that’s more like it

    Earthquake

    Boris, do one.
    Remainia more a problem for Tory’s by far than leaverstan. After locals and this, that’s unarguable now.
    No, Labour’s performance is good enough.
    The red wall is heading home.

    It’s just overshadowed by the blue wall in full collapse. This is beyond the LD’s wildest dreams.
    No it’s not! They got 1% more than the Torys managed at the GE, in mid term against this background? It’s an awful result for Labour.

    Where are you getting Red Wall coming home at GE from this flop?
  • Could Labour have done better? Heck yes but it shows that Starmer can do enough to get them over the line. And that is crucial.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 19,983
    The Wakefield result probably isn't bad enough for the Tories to bring about a renewed leadership challenge.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,522
    Andy_JS said:

    Wakefield parliamentary by-election result

    LAB: 47.9% (+8.1)
    CON: 30.0% (-17.3)
    IND (Akbar): 7.6% (+7.6)
    YRK: 4.3% (+2.4)

    Labour GAIN from Conservative.


    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1540167326003339264

    First Labour by-election gain from Con in a decade…

    48%? That’s rubbish. Rubbish Labour. Whatever happens now, THIS sadly is BIG story of the night, how bad Wakefield result was for Labour - a Labour seat narrowly captured by Tories before they turned into the most rubbish government ever, yet Labour struggle in Red Wall yet again, like they did in locals last month

    Mid term of worst government ever, most hopeless PM ever, Partygate, in a seat that’s not even their territory, Labour should have smashed it, not limped to a “not cutting through yet” result

    Don’t agree with me? The Tories got 47% last time.

    This result is just going to put pressure on Labour again to dump their leader before it’s too late, personally I am not happy - I much prefer the boring moderate Starmer than gobby Jack in box Streeting or just plain weird Nandy as best option for removing Boris majority ☹️
    Boring yes, but still the most Primeministerial thing Labour has to offer right now.

    But they can’t get anywhere in Boris Red Wall when it moves out of fantasy opinion polls into real votes.

    What a bummer after all the excitement in this build up to tonight ☹️
    I agree with your analysis.
    1% more than Tory got in GE, here at mid term by election.

    Don’t let them spin this Red Wall coming home nonsense.
  • Labour lost its deposit in Tiverton and won Wakefield on a decent swing. Lib Dems lost their deposit in Wakefield and won on a huge swing in Tiverton. This is industrial scale tactical voting, and it's a big deal...
  • Ironically - I think Electoral Reform is potentially the big long term winner here. The public are fed up with FPTP but have learnt (sadly) that they have to play the game to get rid of the Tories. The big story is the fact that Labour and the LDs both lost their deposits in TnH and Wakefield respectively and will be celebrating that fact. We need a hung Parliament at the next election - Labour short by say 20-30 seats with the LDs able to plug the gap and demand STV as a price for coalition. These results tonight make that much more plausible…
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,551
    So after the Rwanda drama , rail strikes etc the Tories still got hammered . Whether the Tories would have actually removed Johnson post these by elections if they had not called the earlier confidence vote of course will be the subject of much debate .

  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 516

    Ironically - I think Electoral Reform is potentially the big long term winner here. The public are fed up with FPTP but have learnt (sadly) that they have to play the game to get rid of the Tories. The big story is the fact that Labour and the LDs both lost their deposits in TnH and Wakefield respectively and will be celebrating that fact. We need a hung Parliament at the next election - Labour short by say 20-30 seats with the LDs able to plug the gap and demand STV as a price for coalition. These results tonight make that much more plausible…

    I think it will be conf & supply not coalition fwiw, LDs will support Lab either with or without STV offer imho.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,569

    6K win for Lib Dems! Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa that’s more like it

    Earthquake

    Boris, do one.
    Remainia more a problem for Tory’s by far than leaverstan. After locals and this, that’s unarguable now.
    No, Labour’s performance is good enough.
    The red wall is heading home.

    It’s just overshadowed by the blue wall in full collapse. This is beyond the LD’s wildest dreams.
    No it’s not! They got 1% more than the Torys managed at the GE, in mid term against this background? It’s an awful result for Labour.

    Where are you getting Red Wall coming
    home at GE from this flop?
    Keir is doing “enough”.

    I don’t like him much, and seemingly nobody else does, but he will be next PM barring a Johnson ouster.

    The Tories are sleepwalking to defeat.
    There’s nothing left in the tank. Nothing.

    We can say goodbye to the idea of an early election, too.

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,522

    Could Labour have done better? Heck yes but it shows that Starmer can do enough to get them over the line. And that is crucial.

    No it doesn’t at all. Don’t delude yourself. This is a special mid term by election night, not a GE night that will be far tougher than this free punch in the red wall.
  • 6K win for Lib Dems! Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa that’s more like it

    Earthquake

    Boris, do one.
    Remainia more a problem for Tory’s by far than leaverstan. After locals and this, that’s unarguable now.
    No, Labour’s performance is good enough.
    The red wall is heading home.

    It’s just overshadowed by the blue wall in full collapse. This is beyond the LD’s wildest dreams.
    No it’s not! They got 1% more than the Torys managed at the GE, in mid term against this background? It’s an awful result for Labour.

    Where are you getting Red Wall coming
    home at GE from this flop?
    Keir is doing “enough”.

    I don’t like him much, and seemingly nobody else does, but he will be next PM barring a Johnson ouster.

    The Tories are sleepwalking to defeat.
    There’s nothing left in the tank. Nothing.

    We can say goodbye to the idea of an early election, too.

    Moon is one of these posters where once they’ve made up their mind it’s like talking to a brick wall
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 19,983

    Ironically - I think Electoral Reform is potentially the big long term winner here. The public are fed up with FPTP but have learnt (sadly) that they have to play the game to get rid of the Tories. The big story is the fact that Labour and the LDs both lost their deposits in TnH and Wakefield respectively and will be celebrating that fact. We need a hung Parliament at the next election - Labour short by say 20-30 seats with the LDs able to plug the gap and demand STV as a price for coalition. These results tonight make that much more plausible…

    I voted for AV in the referendum because it's almost the same system as in Australia and it seems to work pretty well there.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,522
    edited June 24

    6K win for Lib Dems! Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa that’s more like it

    Earthquake

    Boris, do one.
    Remainia more a problem for Tory’s by far than leaverstan. After locals and this, that’s unarguable now.
    No, Labour’s performance is good enough.
    The red wall is heading home.

    It’s just overshadowed by the blue wall in full collapse. This is beyond the LD’s wildest dreams.
    No it’s not! They got 1% more than the Torys managed at the GE, in mid term against this background? It’s an awful result for Labour.

    Where are you getting Red Wall coming
    home at GE from this flop?
    Keir is doing “enough”.

    I don’t like him much, and seemingly nobody else does, but he will be next PM barring a Johnson ouster.

    The Tories are sleepwalking to defeat.
    There’s nothing left in the tank. Nothing.

    We can say goodbye to the idea of an early election, too.

    Moon is one of these posters where once they’ve made up their mind it’s like talking to a brick wall
    They should have given Tories a kicking here, not flopped.

    This is a Labour seat, contrast with what Lib Dems done exactly the same night in Tory seat?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,569

    6K win for Lib Dems! Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa that’s more like it

    Earthquake

    Boris, do one.
    Remainia more a problem for Tory’s by far than leaverstan. After locals and this, that’s unarguable now.
    No, Labour’s performance is good enough.
    The red wall is heading home.

    It’s just overshadowed by the blue wall in full collapse. This is beyond the LD’s wildest dreams.
    No it’s not! They got 1% more than the Torys managed at the GE, in mid term against this background? It’s an awful result for Labour.

    Where are you getting Red Wall coming
    home at GE from this flop?
    Keir is doing “enough”.

    I don’t like him much, and seemingly nobody else does, but he will be next PM barring a Johnson ouster.

    The Tories are sleepwalking to defeat.
    There’s nothing left in the tank. Nothing.

    We can say goodbye to the idea of an early election, too.

    Moon is one of these posters where once
    they’ve made up their mind it’s like talking to
    a brick wall
    The result is very mildly disappointing for Labour. There’s no excitement for Keir and his project. But it’s a good enough win, and importantly I believe it shows that it is over for the Tories.

    The next election is now simply about whether Labour can scrape a majority.

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,522
    Andy_JS said:

    Ironically - I think Electoral Reform is potentially the big long term winner here. The public are fed up with FPTP but have learnt (sadly) that they have to play the game to get rid of the Tories. The big story is the fact that Labour and the LDs both lost their deposits in TnH and Wakefield respectively and will be celebrating that fact. We need a hung Parliament at the next election - Labour short by say 20-30 seats with the LDs able to plug the gap and demand STV as a price for coalition. These results tonight make that much more plausible…

    I voted for AV in the referendum because it's almost the same system as in Australia and it seems to work pretty well there.
    They are still counting down there.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,455

    That’s a 12.7% swing from Conservative to Labour. Biggest swing to Labour in this Parliament.

    Labour need a 10% swing to win a majority at the next election…


    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1540167981208158208?

    Subtract 4% or so for Rod Crosby Swingback, NOM
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,415
    Andy_JS said:

    Wakefield parliamentary by-election result

    LAB: 47.9% (+8.1)
    CON: 30.0% (-17.3)
    IND (Akbar): 7.6% (+7.6)
    YRK: 4.3% (+2.4)

    Labour GAIN from Conservative.


    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1540167326003339264

    First Labour by-election gain from Con in a decade…

    48%? That’s rubbish. Rubbish Labour. Whatever happens now, THIS sadly is BIG story of the night, how bad Wakefield result was for Labour - a Labour seat narrowly captured by Tories before they turned into the most rubbish government ever, yet Labour struggle in Red Wall yet again, like they did in locals last month

    Mid term of worst government ever, most hopeless PM ever, Partygate, in a seat that’s not even their territory, Labour should have smashed it, not limped to a “not cutting through yet” result

    Don’t agree with me? The Tories got 47% last time.

    This result is just going to put pressure on Labour again to dump their leader before it’s too late, personally I am not happy - I much prefer the boring moderate Starmer than gobby Jack in box Streeting or just plain weird Nandy as best option for removing Boris majority ☹️
    Boring yes, but still the most Primeministerial thing Labour has to offer right now.

    But they can’t get anywhere in Boris Red Wall when it moves out of fantasy opinion polls into real votes.

    What a bummer after all the excitement in this build up to tonight ☹️
    I agree with your analysis.
    Most of the commentators don't. They seem to think it convincing and at the high end of expectations.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 516

    Andy_JS said:

    Ironically - I think Electoral Reform is potentially the big long term winner here. The public are fed up with FPTP but have learnt (sadly) that they have to play the game to get rid of the Tories. The big story is the fact that Labour and the LDs both lost their deposits in TnH and Wakefield respectively and will be celebrating that fact. We need a hung Parliament at the next election - Labour short by say 20-30 seats with the LDs able to plug the gap and demand STV as a price for coalition. These results tonight make that much more plausible…

    I voted for AV in the referendum because it's almost the same system as in Australia and it seems to work pretty well there.
    They are still counting down there.
    No - they've finished now.

    https://www.aec.gov.au/
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 19,983

    Andy_JS said:

    Ironically - I think Electoral Reform is potentially the big long term winner here. The public are fed up with FPTP but have learnt (sadly) that they have to play the game to get rid of the Tories. The big story is the fact that Labour and the LDs both lost their deposits in TnH and Wakefield respectively and will be celebrating that fact. We need a hung Parliament at the next election - Labour short by say 20-30 seats with the LDs able to plug the gap and demand STV as a price for coalition. These results tonight make that much more plausible…

    I voted for AV in the referendum because it's almost the same system as in Australia and it seems to work pretty well there.
    They are still counting down there.
    I also thought they were until yesterday because it says "89.7% counted" but in fact that's a percentage of the entire electorate.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,102
    Anyway Boris "greatest electoral asset since the 70s" Johnson isn't going anywhere. He won't resign and it's too soon for another confidence vote. Everything will grind on but it strengthens the case for another vote in the autumn around the privileges Committee findings.

    https://twitter.com/samfr/status/1540174774277750786
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,522
    Roger said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Wakefield parliamentary by-election result

    LAB: 47.9% (+8.1)
    CON: 30.0% (-17.3)
    IND (Akbar): 7.6% (+7.6)
    YRK: 4.3% (+2.4)

    Labour GAIN from Conservative.


    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1540167326003339264

    First Labour by-election gain from Con in a decade…

    48%? That’s rubbish. Rubbish Labour. Whatever happens now, THIS sadly is BIG story of the night, how bad Wakefield result was for Labour - a Labour seat narrowly captured by Tories before they turned into the most rubbish government ever, yet Labour struggle in Red Wall yet again, like they did in locals last month

    Mid term of worst government ever, most hopeless PM ever, Partygate, in a seat that’s not even their territory, Labour should have smashed it, not limped to a “not cutting through yet” result

    Don’t agree with me? The Tories got 47% last time.

    This result is just going to put pressure on Labour again to dump their leader before it’s too late, personally I am not happy - I much prefer the boring moderate Starmer than gobby Jack in box Streeting or just plain weird Nandy as best option for removing Boris majority ☹️
    Boring yes, but still the most Primeministerial thing Labour has to offer right now.

    But they can’t get anywhere in Boris Red Wall when it moves out of fantasy opinion polls into real votes.

    What a bummer after all the excitement in this build up to tonight ☹️
    I agree with your analysis.
    Most of the commentators don't. They seem to think it convincing and at the high end of expectations.
    They are not as sharp a me.

    This result will chill the shadow cabinet and Labour Party, not lift it.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,149
    There are only 40 Tory MPs with a majority bigger than the Tiverton one. It was a rock solid safe seat. Tory since creation in 2010. In this and the two predecessor seats there had been one year in the last 137 where they weren't both held by the Tories.
    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1540172366281691137
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,149

    Anyway Boris "greatest electoral asset since the 70s" Johnson isn't going anywhere. He won't resign and it's too soon for another confidence vote. Everything will grind on but it strengthens the case for another vote in the autumn around the privileges Committee findings.

    https://twitter.com/samfr/status/1540174774277750786

    A cabinet resignation or two could still oust him. But it won't.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,415
    nico679 said:

    So after the Rwanda drama , rail strikes etc the Tories still got hammered . Whether the Tories would have actually removed Johnson post these by elections if they had not called the earlier confidence vote of course will be the subject of much debate .

    Hopefully this result will give Starmer the confidence to come out and call this Rwanda stunt for what it is. An abomination.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,149
    So Labour's @simonlightwood wins Wakefield with a 12.6% swing (huge) from the Tories.

    Keir Starmer's party has a 4,925 majority, which is way better than expected & a result that can't be dismissed as mere dissatisfaction with Boris Johnson

    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1540176666600800256
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,522

    6K win for Lib Dems! Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa that’s more like it

    Earthquake

    Boris, do one.
    Remainia more a problem for Tory’s by far than leaverstan. After locals and this, that’s unarguable now.
    No, Labour’s performance is good enough.
    The red wall is heading home.

    It’s just overshadowed by the blue wall in full collapse. This is beyond the LD’s wildest dreams.
    No it’s not! They got 1% more than the Torys managed at the GE, in mid term against this background? It’s an awful result for Labour.

    Where are you getting Red Wall coming
    home at GE from this flop?
    Keir is doing “enough”.

    I don’t like him much, and seemingly nobody else does, but he will be next PM barring a Johnson ouster.

    The Tories are sleepwalking to defeat.
    There’s nothing left in the tank. Nothing.

    We can say goodbye to the idea of an early election, too.

    Moon is one of these posters where once
    they’ve made up their mind it’s like talking to
    a brick wall
    The result is very mildly disappointing for Labour. There’s no excitement for Keir and his project. But it’s a good enough win, and importantly I believe it shows that it is over for the Tories.

    The next election is now simply about whether Labour can scrape a majority.

    You can state Fantasy and hopes as much as you want, as much as Horse, Heathener and Roger too. I deal in facts.

    Labour can’t even be confident of holding Wakefield at a GE on this result, with the hand sitters coming back, let alone tougher challenges in the Red Wall - that’s fact. That’s the fact this result screams at us. Far tougher red wall challenges than this at next GE, and they even have fight on to defend this.

    Labour got better Red Wall results than this flop on local election night.

    The polling of the seat gave them a better result than this.

    Tonight was a Labour flop, once it all sinks in.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,307
    Scott_xP said:

    Anyway Boris "greatest electoral asset since the 70s" Johnson isn't going anywhere. He won't resign and it's too soon for another confidence vote. Everything will grind on but it strengthens the case for another vote in the autumn around the privileges Committee findings.

    https://twitter.com/samfr/status/1540174774277750786

    A cabinet resignation or two could still oust him. But it won't.
    By what precise mechanism will a Cabinet resignation oust the Prime Minister? There would need to be one that does not depend on Boris doing the right thing.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,149

    Scott_xP said:

    Anyway Boris "greatest electoral asset since the 70s" Johnson isn't going anywhere. He won't resign and it's too soon for another confidence vote. Everything will grind on but it strengthens the case for another vote in the autumn around the privileges Committee findings.

    https://twitter.com/samfr/status/1540174774277750786

    A cabinet resignation or two could still oust him. But it won't.
    By what precise mechanism will a Cabinet resignation oust the Prime Minister? There would need to be one that does not depend on Boris doing the right thing.
    Ultimately, a vonc.

    If the cabinet do not have confidence in the PM, how can the House?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,522
    Scott_xP said:

    So Labour's @simonlightwood wins Wakefield with a 12.6% swing (huge) from the Tories.

    Keir Starmer's party has a 4,925 majority, which is way better than expected & a result that can't be dismissed as mere dissatisfaction with Boris Johnson

    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1540176666600800256

    I’m here to state facts. The special mid term by election gave Labour just 1% more than Tories got at last election, despite the Tory vote staying home. This newly elected Labour MP is a sitting duck.

    Lib Dems getting Amazing results in elections this Parliament - Labour underwhelming every time.

    I want to see a change of government so I ain’t happy Labour letting their share of bargain down 😠
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,519

    6K win for Lib Dems! Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa that’s more like it

    Earthquake

    Boris, do one.
    Remainia more a problem for Tory’s by far than leaverstan. After locals and this, that’s unarguable now.
    No, Labour’s performance is good enough.
    The red wall is heading home.

    It’s just overshadowed by the blue wall in full collapse. This is beyond the LD’s wildest dreams.
    No it’s not! They got 1% more than the Torys managed at the GE, in mid term against this background? It’s an awful result for Labour.

    Where are you getting Red Wall coming
    home at GE from this flop?
    Keir is doing “enough”.

    I don’t like him much, and seemingly nobody else does, but he will be next PM barring a Johnson ouster.

    The Tories are sleepwalking to defeat.
    There’s nothing left in the tank. Nothing.

    We can say goodbye to the idea of an early election, too.

    Moon is one of these posters where once
    they’ve made up their mind it’s like talking to
    a brick wall
    The result is very mildly disappointing for Labour. There’s no excitement for Keir and his project. But it’s a good enough win, and importantly I believe it shows that it is over for the Tories.

    The next election is now simply about whether Labour can scrape a majority.

    You can state Fantasy and hopes as much as you want, as much as Horse, Heathener and Roger too. I deal in facts.

    Labour can’t even be confident of holding Wakefield at a GE on this result, with the hand sitters coming back, let alone tougher challenges in the Red Wall - that’s fact. That’s the fact this result screams at us. Far tougher red wall challenges than this at next GE, and they even have fight on to defend this.

    Labour got better Red Wall results than this flop on local election night.

    The polling of the seat gave them a better result than this.

    Tonight was a Labour flop, once it all sinks in.
    No, that is nonsense. The first Lab gain in a by-election in years. Not as spectacular as the LD result in Devon, but this puts Starmer comfortably in Number 10, the only question is whether as minority or majority government.

    Your man Johnson is now a total liability.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,522

    Could Labour have done better? Heck yes but it shows that Starmer can do enough to get them over the line. And that is crucial.

    “ Could Labour have done better?”

    What’s that even mean? They didn’t do better is the fact of it - so maybe they can’t do better in Red Wall leaver areas is the conclusion. Mid term, free punch or open goal night, and they missed.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,569
    edited June 24
    Lord Frost gave Boris 3 months to “get a grip” earlier today (or yesterday).

    I agree with the analysis that the ERG have Boris by the goolies, and therefore I expect him to continue spouting “wedge” nonsense unto his final exit.

    The wedge stuff is not working, though. It’s actually grossly unpopular in the blue wall and is not halting a slow but discernible tide of disaffection in the red wall.

    Boris is a dead man walking.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,726
    Scott_xP said:

    So Labour's @simonlightwood wins Wakefield with a 12.6% swing (huge) from the Tories.

    Keir Starmer's party has a 4,925 majority, which is way better than expected & a result that can't be dismissed as mere dissatisfaction with Boris Johnson

    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1540176666600800256

    I think it's a decent win for Labour, but I wouldn't describe a 12.6pp swing as huge:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_Dudley_West_by-election

    In 1994, Labour gained Dudley West on a 29.1pp swing. Now that is huge.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,149
    This figure is significant: the magic number for Labour to gain a majority in a general election is a 12% swing. Tonight they outperformed that in the marginal of Wakefield.
    https://twitter.com/benjaminbutter/status/1540179056867557378
    https://twitter.com/rewearmouth/status/1540176666600800256
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,149
    To lose one by-election is unfortunate, to lose two inside five minutes looks like carelessness

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/boris-johnson-nightmare-as-tories-lose-two-seats-five-minutes_uk_62b52ccce4b06169caa480d8
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,495

    Labour 47.9%
    12.7% swing.

    I’d say it’s only mildly above “par”.
    Yes it delivers a majority…but it’s a by-election and nobody turned out, even to give a kicking to the nonce-fielders.

    Yes, I'd agree. I think it still represents progress for Labour, so it's the right side of "meh", but not by much.

    The large vote for the former Conservative councillor is interesting. Voters want to find someone other than Labour to vote for to protest against the government.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,519
    Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Anyway Boris "greatest electoral asset since the 70s" Johnson isn't going anywhere. He won't resign and it's too soon for another confidence vote. Everything will grind on but it strengthens the case for another vote in the autumn around the privileges Committee findings.

    https://twitter.com/samfr/status/1540174774277750786

    A cabinet resignation or two could still oust him. But it won't.
    By what precise mechanism will a Cabinet resignation oust the Prime Minister? There would need to be one that does not depend on Boris doing the right thing.
    Ultimately, a vonc.

    If the cabinet do not have confidence in the PM, how can the House?
    The sheep will line up behind Johnson in a vonc and he would comfortably win. Unless the 1922 changes the rules he is safe until next June.

    Conference is going to be fun.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,522
    Foxy said:

    6K win for Lib Dems! Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa that’s more like it

    Earthquake

    Boris, do one.
    Remainia more a problem for Tory’s by far than leaverstan. After locals and this, that’s unarguable now.
    No, Labour’s performance is good enough.
    The red wall is heading home.

    It’s just overshadowed by the blue wall in full collapse. This is beyond the LD’s wildest dreams.
    No it’s not! They got 1% more than the Torys managed at the GE, in mid term against this background? It’s an awful result for Labour.

    Where are you getting Red Wall coming
    home at GE from this flop?
    Keir is doing “enough”.

    I don’t like him much, and seemingly nobody else does, but he will be next PM barring a Johnson ouster.

    The Tories are sleepwalking to defeat.
    There’s nothing left in the tank. Nothing.

    We can say goodbye to the idea of an early election, too.

    Moon is one of these posters where once
    they’ve made up their mind it’s like talking to
    a brick wall
    The result is very mildly disappointing for Labour. There’s no excitement for Keir and his project. But it’s a good enough win, and importantly I believe it shows that it is over for the Tories.

    The next election is now simply about whether Labour can scrape a majority.

    You can state Fantasy and hopes as much as you want, as much as Horse, Heathener and Roger too. I deal in facts.

    Labour can’t even be confident of holding Wakefield at a GE on this result, with the hand sitters coming back, let alone tougher challenges in the Red Wall - that’s fact. That’s the fact this result screams at us. Far tougher red wall challenges than this at next GE, and they even have fight on to defend this.

    Labour got better Red Wall results than this flop on local election night.

    The polling of the seat gave them a better result than this.

    Tonight was a Labour flop, once it all sinks in.
    No, that is nonsense. The first Lab gain in a by-election in years. Not as spectacular as the LD result in Devon, but this puts Starmer comfortably in Number 10, the only question is whether as minority or majority government.

    Your man Johnson is now a total liability.
    You have it so wrong. Johnson is not my man. I want him out as much as you do, that’s why I am angry and frustrated at Labours failure. 1% better than Tory’s at last GE with the Tory vote depressed and hand sitting mid term?

    Can’t any of you see ahead to what this means? Has the Penny not dropped?

    It’s clear now, sadly, Labour are just going to have accept it’s going to take much longer for the red wall to unwind, it’s not all places going to unwind straight back to them next election. In fact Labour voters, and us Lib Dems, and Nats too I think who want change of government at next election have to Realise we have to watch through our fingers on election night, as the two opposition parties in England come from very low starting places to try and overhaul a Tory landslide majority in one go, not just wipe it out but to such extent Boris had to go. So many results in red and blue wall will be touch and go in counts, we will watch through our fingers. Believe this.

    This result is just going to put pressure on Labour again to dump their leader before it’s too late, and personally I am not happy and don’t want to see much more of that either - I much prefer the boring moderate Starmer than gobby Jack in box Streeting or just plain weird Nandy as best option for removing Boris majority ☹️
    Boring yes, but still the most Primeministerial thing Labour has to offer right now.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,415

    Roger said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Wakefield parliamentary by-election result

    LAB: 47.9% (+8.1)
    CON: 30.0% (-17.3)
    IND (Akbar): 7.6% (+7.6)
    YRK: 4.3% (+2.4)

    Labour GAIN from Conservative.


    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1540167326003339264

    First Labour by-election gain from Con in a decade…

    48%? That’s rubbish. Rubbish Labour. Whatever happens now, THIS sadly is BIG story of the night, how bad Wakefield result was for Labour - a Labour seat narrowly captured by Tories before they turned into the most rubbish government ever, yet Labour struggle in Red Wall yet again, like they did in locals last month

    Mid term of worst government ever, most hopeless PM ever, Partygate, in a seat that’s not even their territory, Labour should have smashed it, not limped to a “not cutting through yet” result

    Don’t agree with me? The Tories got 47% last time.

    This result is just going to put pressure on Labour again to dump their leader before it’s too late, personally I am not happy - I much prefer the boring moderate Starmer than gobby Jack in box Streeting or just plain weird Nandy as best option for removing Boris majority ☹️
    Boring yes, but still the most Primeministerial thing Labour has to offer right now.

    But they can’t get anywhere in Boris Red Wall when it moves out of fantasy opinion polls into real votes.

    What a bummer after all the excitement in this build up to tonight ☹️
    I agree with your analysis.
    Most of the commentators don't. They seem to think it convincing and at the high end of expectations.
    They are not as sharp a me.

    This result will chill the shadow cabinet and Labour Party, not lift it.
    Absolute rubbish! But why not it's late.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,522

    Foxy said:

    6K win for Lib Dems! Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa that’s more like it

    Earthquake

    Boris, do one.
    Remainia more a problem for Tory’s by far than leaverstan. After locals and this, that’s unarguable now.
    No, Labour’s performance is good enough.
    The red wall is heading home.

    It’s just overshadowed by the blue wall in full collapse. This is beyond the LD’s wildest dreams.
    No it’s not! They got 1% more than the Torys managed at the GE, in mid term against this background? It’s an awful result for Labour.

    Where are you getting Red Wall coming
    home at GE from this flop?
    Keir is doing “enough”.

    I don’t like him much, and seemingly nobody else does, but he will be next PM barring a Johnson ouster.

    The Tories are sleepwalking to defeat.
    There’s nothing left in the tank. Nothing.

    We can say goodbye to the idea of an early election, too.

    Moon is one of these posters where once
    they’ve made up their mind it’s like talking to
    a brick wall
    The result is very mildly disappointing for Labour. There’s no excitement for Keir and his project. But it’s a good enough win, and importantly I believe it shows that it is over for the Tories.

    The next election is now simply about whether Labour can scrape a majority.

    You can state Fantasy and hopes as much as you want, as much as Horse, Heathener and Roger too. I deal in facts.

    Labour can’t even be confident of holding Wakefield at a GE on this result, with the hand sitters coming back, let alone tougher challenges in the Red Wall - that’s fact. That’s the fact this result screams at us. Far tougher red wall challenges than this at next GE, and they even have fight on to defend this.

    Labour got better Red Wall results than this flop on local election night.

    The polling of the seat gave them a better result than this.

    Tonight was a Labour flop, once it all sinks in.
    No, that is nonsense. The first Lab gain in a by-election in years. Not as spectacular as the LD result in Devon, but this puts Starmer comfortably in Number 10, the only question is whether as minority or majority government.

    Your man Johnson is now a total liability.
    You have it so wrong. Johnson is not my man. I want him out as much as you do, that’s why I am angry and frustrated at Labours failure. 1% better than Tory’s at last GE with the Tory vote depressed and hand sitting mid term?

    Can’t any of you see ahead to what this means? Has the Penny not dropped?

    It’s clear now, sadly, Labour are just going to have accept it’s going to take much longer for the red wall to unwind, it’s not all places going to unwind straight back to them next election. In fact Labour voters, and us Lib Dems, and Nats too I think who want change of government at next election have to Realise we have to watch through our fingers on election night, as the two opposition parties in England come from very low starting places to try and overhaul a Tory landslide majority in one go, not just wipe it out but to such extent Boris had to go. So many results in red and blue wall will be touch and go in counts, we will watch through our fingers. Believe this.

    This result is just going to put pressure on Labour again to dump their leader before it’s too late, and personally I am not happy and don’t want to see much more of that either - I much prefer the boring moderate Starmer than gobby Jack in box Streeting or just plain weird Nandy as best option for removing Boris majority ☹️
    Boring yes, but still the most Primeministerial thing Labour has to offer right now.
    Now do you get why the clear message from this result is so frustrating?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,522
    Roger said:



    Roger said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Wakefield parliamentary by-election result

    LAB: 47.9% (+8.1)
    CON: 30.0% (-17.3)
    IND (Akbar): 7.6% (+7.6)
    YRK: 4.3% (+2.4)

    Labour GAIN from Conservative.


    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1540167326003339264

    First Labour by-election gain from Con in a decade…

    48%? That’s rubbish. Rubbish Labour. Whatever happens now, THIS sadly is BIG story of the night, how bad Wakefield result was for Labour - a Labour seat narrowly captured by Tories before they turned into the most rubbish government ever, yet Labour struggle in Red Wall yet again, like they did in locals last month

    Mid term of worst government ever, most hopeless PM ever, Partygate, in a seat that’s not even their territory, Labour should have smashed it, not limped to a “not cutting through yet” result

    Don’t agree with me? The Tories got 47% last time.

    This result is just going to put pressure on Labour again to dump their leader before it’s too late, personally I am not happy - I much prefer the boring moderate Starmer than gobby Jack in box Streeting or just plain weird Nandy as best option for removing Boris majority ☹️
    Boring yes, but still the most Primeministerial thing Labour has to offer right now.

    But they can’t get anywhere in Boris Red Wall when it moves out of fantasy opinion polls into real votes.

    What a bummer after all the excitement in this build up to tonight ☹️
    I agree with your analysis.
    Most of the commentators don't. They seem to think it convincing and at the high end of expectations.
    They are not as sharp a me.

    This result will chill the shadow cabinet and Labour Party, not lift it.
    Absolute rubbish! But why not it's late.
    I’m talking sense. I’m sorry it’s another underwhelming Red Wall result for Labour I worry about Starmer going.

    You Don’t have to try and match the fun of Boris to win the next election, the way it will work in voters minds is which one they can best imagine behind desk in Downing Street leading country through crisis after crisis, and that wont be Streeting or Nandy ahead of Starmer. That’s the way to beat Boris in the GE PM match up, Boris or switch to someone else to run country - Streeting and Nandy lose votes to experienced Boris because of the “no time for a novice match up”.

    Starmer must stay, despite this underwhelming result again in the red wall.

    Put some of these labour front bench through rigours of proper government for a bit, some could emerge as primeministers, but the best option at the moment is Starmer.

    I’m going now.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,455
    Scott_xP said:

    Anyway Boris "greatest electoral asset since the 70s" Johnson isn't going anywhere. He won't resign and it's too soon for another confidence vote. Everything will grind on but it strengthens the case for another vote in the autumn around the privileges Committee findings.

    https://twitter.com/samfr/status/1540174774277750786

    A cabinet resignation or two could still oust him. But it won't.
    If I was a Tory MP I'd just wait until the year's up and see how it's going. At that point it'll close enough to the election to make a reasonable guess as to whether he's likely to win it or not. Right now it's still a little bit hard to call either way.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,925
    Whichever party changes leader = majority.

    If no change for either, then NOM and it’s hard this far out to say which way.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,149

    Right now it's still a little bit hard to call either way.

    It really isn't
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,455
    Scott_xP said:

    Right now it's still a little bit hard to call either way.

    It really isn't
    I mean the polls are looking pretty Ed-Milliband-ish, Labour's leader is acceptable but not wildly loved, they just got a decent swing in a by-election but not a monster one, there are some economic problems that may well be temporary. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,149
    The Tories have lost both Wakefield and Tiverton & Honiton on big swings. Here’s why that’s an ominous sign for Boris Johnson 👇 https://twitter.com/joe_mayes/status/1538094640221540355
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,149

    Scott_xP said:

    Right now it's still a little bit hard to call either way.

    It really isn't
    I mean the polls are looking pretty Ed-Milliband-ish, Labour's leader is acceptable but not wildly loved, they just got a decent swing in a by-election but not a monster one, there are some economic problems that may well be temporary. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    The summer of discontent is just getting started.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,519


    By-election turnout as a % of general election turnout:

    Hartlepool: 74%
    >Tiverton & Honiton: 72%
    Batley & Spen: 71%
    North Shropshire: 68%
    Chesham & Amersham: 68%
    >Wakefield: 61%
    Birmingham Erdington: 51%
    Old Bexley & Sidcup: 48%

    So the low turnout in Wakefield is not out of line with other by-elections. Wakefield only turned out 64% in the GE, so a pretty hard place to motivate the GOTV.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,519
    Roger said:



    Roger said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Wakefield parliamentary by-election result

    LAB: 47.9% (+8.1)
    CON: 30.0% (-17.3)
    IND (Akbar): 7.6% (+7.6)
    YRK: 4.3% (+2.4)

    Labour GAIN from Conservative.


    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1540167326003339264

    First Labour by-election gain from Con in a decade…

    48%? That’s rubbish. Rubbish Labour. Whatever happens now, THIS sadly is BIG story of the night, how bad Wakefield result was for Labour - a Labour seat narrowly captured by Tories before they turned into the most rubbish government ever, yet Labour struggle in Red Wall yet again, like they did in locals last month

    Mid term of worst government ever, most hopeless PM ever, Partygate, in a seat that’s not even their territory, Labour should have smashed it, not limped to a “not cutting through yet” result

    Don’t agree with me? The Tories got 47% last time.

    This result is just going to put pressure on Labour again to dump their leader before it’s too late, personally I am not happy - I much prefer the boring moderate Starmer than gobby Jack in box Streeting or just plain weird Nandy as best option for removing Boris majority ☹️
    Boring yes, but still the most Primeministerial thing Labour has to offer right now.

    But they can’t get anywhere in Boris Red Wall when it moves out of fantasy opinion polls into real votes.

    What a bummer after all the excitement in this build up to tonight ☹️
    I agree with your analysis.
    Most of the commentators don't. They seem to think it convincing and at the high end of expectations.
    They are not as sharp a me.

    This result will chill the shadow cabinet and Labour Party, not lift it.
    Absolute rubbish! But why not it's late.
    Or early...

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,455
    Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Right now it's still a little bit hard to call either way.

    It really isn't
    I mean the polls are looking pretty Ed-Milliband-ish, Labour's leader is acceptable but not wildly loved, they just got a decent swing in a by-election but not a monster one, there are some economic problems that may well be temporary. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    The summer of discontent is just getting started.
    Right but what if after that it's the winter of love
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,149
    The Tory chairman has been pushing the culture wars hard. Voices calling for the party to change tack will no doubt get louder now.
    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1540184661808369664
    https://twitter.com/DPMcBride/status/1540184129194557440
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