The LDs claim victory in Tiverton & Honiton – politicalbetting.com

First like the Lib Dems.

Maybe Boris isn't turning into Jeremy Corbyn, but Nick Clegg.

Well done Heathener. She might have had more encores than Frank Sinatra but she deserves them. She predicted this unique result since the by-election was first announced.

tpfkar said:

Maybe Boris isn't turning into Jeremy Corbyn, but Nick Clegg.

Hi Tpfkar. Good to see you for your annual visit. It usually spells good news

Gardenwalker said:

Even here in New York, five hours behind, I’d quite like the results now so I can get to bed.

We are sitting romantically in the harbour waiting for the sun to come up before we go back to the hotel.

Roger said:

tpfkar said:

Maybe Boris isn't turning into Jeremy Corbyn, but Nick Clegg.

Hi Tpfkar. Good to see you for your annual visit. It usually spells good news

Thanks Roger. I'm still lurking regularly, reading above the line, but checking out the comments a little more now. Maybe I am finding politics a bit more tolerable now some chickens are coming home to roost for the Blue Team. Stepped down as a councillor last year but still following with interest.

Glad to see you are on good form as well.

Tory source at Tiverton count suggests the result could be brutal - looking at Lib Dems in the mid 50s %, Tories in the mid 30s.

We won't know for a while yet but that kind of swing would be far beyond the Lib Dems' wildest dreams.

https://twitter.com/tomlarkinsky/status/1540164182544465920

Perhaps Tory MPs will wake up to Johnson now being a liability rather than an asset?

Apparently Helen Hurford has locked herself in a room and refusing to speak to media in T&H

CarlottaVance said:

Sky News say the Tory candidate in Tiverton and Honiton has locked herself in a room at the by-election count and is refusing to speak to the press. Never a good sign.

https://twitter.com/kevinaschofield/status/1540164832032350208

Like hiding in a fridge, or in a week's worth of overseas summits.

Can I be the first to say "it's a terrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrible night for the Tories".

Labour GAIN Wakefield from Conservative.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1540166492620210176

While we wait.
This is the worst Beatles “homage” I have ever seen. Who or what is this?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=pqQfVzNhtfk

Roger said:

Excellent result for Labour. About 50%.

Nope way under 50%. Awful result

Wakefield parliamentary by-election result

LAB: 47.9% (+8.1)
CON: 30.0% (-17.3)
IND (Akbar): 7.6% (+7.6)
YRK: 4.3% (+2.4)

Labour GAIN from Conservative.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1540167326003339264

First Labour by-election gain from Con in a decade…

What's the swing.
Tories will take that result I think.

CarlottaVance said:

Wakefield parliamentary by-election result

LAB: 47.9% (+8.1)
CON: 30.0% (-17.3)
IND (Akbar): 7.6% (+7.6)
YRK: 4.3% (+2.4)

Labour GAIN from Conservative.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1540167326003339264

First Labour by-election gain from Con in a decade…

48%? That’s rubbish. Rubbish Labour. Whatever happens now, THIS sadly is BIG story of the night, how bad Wakefield result was for Labour - a Labour seat narrowly captured by Tories before they turned into the most rubbish government ever, yet Labour struggle in Red Wall yet again, like they did in locals last month

Mid term of worst government ever, most hopeless PM ever, Partygate, in a seat that’s not even their territory, Labour should have smashed it, not limped to a “not cutting through yet” result

Don’t agree with me? The Tories got 47% last time.

This result is just going to put pressure on Labour again to dump their leader before it’s too late, personally I am not happy - I much prefer the boring moderate Starmer than gobby Jack in box Streeting or just plain weird Nandy as best option for removing Boris majority ☹️
Boring yes, but still the most Primeministerial thing Labour has to offer right now.

But they can’t get anywhere in Boris Red Wall when it moves out of fantasy opinion polls into real votes.

What a bummer after all the excitement in this build up to tonight ☹️

That’s a 12.7% swing from Conservative to Labour. Biggest swing to Labour in this Parliament.

Labour need a 10% swing to win a majority at the next election…

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1540167981208158208?

6K win for Lib Dems! Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa that’s more like it

Earthquake

Larger majority for the LDs in Tiverton than Labour in Wakefield.

MoonRabbit said:

6K win for Lib Dems! Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa that’s more like it

Earthquake

Boris, do one.

Gardenwalker said:

Labour 47.9%
12.7% swing.

I’d say it’s only mildly above “par”.
Yes it delivers a majority…but it’s a by-election and nobody turned out, even to give a kicking to the nonce-fielders.

What’s Labours excuse? It’s heavily leave and they’ve made some progress?

Nah. In this special election against this back drop? They’ve bombed in red wall again.

Published yesterday; good guidance for how to benchmark these results.

https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1539859093955006465?s=21&t=BxIG4RtwYnIBL0KBK9pfFQ

TLDR; Wakefield is merely “bad” for the Tories; T&H is Chernobyl-tastic.

MoonRabbit said:

CarlottaVance said:

Wakefield parliamentary by-election result

LAB: 47.9% (+8.1)
CON: 30.0% (-17.3)
IND (Akbar): 7.6% (+7.6)
YRK: 4.3% (+2.4)

Labour GAIN from Conservative.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1540167326003339264

First Labour by-election gain from Con in a decade…

48%? That’s rubbish. Rubbish Labour. Whatever happens now, THIS sadly is BIG story of the night, how bad Wakefield result was for Labour - a Labour seat narrowly captured by Tories before they turned into the most rubbish government ever, yet Labour struggle in Red Wall yet again, like they did in locals last month

Mid term of worst government ever, most hopeless PM ever, Partygate, in a seat that’s not even their territory, Labour should have smashed it, not limped to a “not cutting through yet” result

Don’t agree with me? The Tories got 47% last time.

This result is just going to put pressure on Labour again to dump their leader before it’s too late, personally I am not happy - I much prefer the boring moderate Starmer than gobby Jack in box Streeting or just plain weird Nandy as best option for removing Boris majority ☹️
Boring yes, but still the most Primeministerial thing Labour has to offer right now.

But they can’t get anywhere in Boris Red Wall when it moves out of fantasy opinion polls into real votes.

What a bummer after all the excitement in this build up to tonight ☹️

I agree with your analysis.

Andy_JS said:

MoonRabbit said:

CarlottaVance said:

Wakefield parliamentary by-election result

LAB: 47.9% (+8.1)
CON: 30.0% (-17.3)
IND (Akbar): 7.6% (+7.6)
YRK: 4.3% (+2.4)

Labour GAIN from Conservative.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1540167326003339264

First Labour by-election gain from Con in a decade…

48%? That’s rubbish. Rubbish Labour. Whatever happens now, THIS sadly is BIG story of the night, how bad Wakefield result was for Labour - a Labour seat narrowly captured by Tories before they turned into the most rubbish government ever, yet Labour struggle in Red Wall yet again, like they did in locals last month

Mid term of worst government ever, most hopeless PM ever, Partygate, in a seat that’s not even their territory, Labour should have smashed it, not limped to a “not cutting through yet” result

Don’t agree with me? The Tories got 47% last time.

This result is just going to put pressure on Labour again to dump their leader before it’s too late, personally I am not happy - I much prefer the boring moderate Starmer than gobby Jack in box Streeting or just plain weird Nandy as best option for removing Boris majority ☹️
Boring yes, but still the most Primeministerial thing Labour has to offer right now.

But they can’t get anywhere in Boris Red Wall when it moves out of fantasy opinion polls into real votes.

What a bummer after all the excitement in this build up to tonight ☹️

I agree with your analysis.

1% more than Tory got in GE, here at mid term by election.

Don’t let them spin this Red Wall coming home nonsense.

Ironically - I think Electoral Reform is potentially the big long term winner here. The public are fed up with FPTP but have learnt (sadly) that they have to play the game to get rid of the Tories. The big story is the fact that Labour and the LDs both lost their deposits in TnH and Wakefield respectively and will be celebrating that fact. We need a hung Parliament at the next election - Labour short by say 20-30 seats with the LDs able to plug the gap and demand STV as a price for coalition. These results tonight make that much more plausible…

ExpatMalaysia said:

Ironically - I think Electoral Reform is potentially the big long term winner here. The public are fed up with FPTP but have learnt (sadly) that they have to play the game to get rid of the Tories. The big story is the fact that Labour and the LDs both lost their deposits in TnH and Wakefield respectively and will be celebrating that fact. We need a hung Parliament at the next election - Labour short by say 20-30 seats with the LDs able to plug the gap and demand STV as a price for coalition. These results tonight make that much more plausible…

I think it will be conf & supply not coalition fwiw, LDs will support Lab either with or without STV offer imho.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Could Labour have done better? Heck yes but it shows that Starmer can do enough to get them over the line. And that is crucial.

No it doesn’t at all. Don’t delude yourself. This is a special mid term by election night, not a GE night that will be far tougher than this free punch in the red wall.

ExpatMalaysia said:

Ironically - I think Electoral Reform is potentially the big long term winner here. The public are fed up with FPTP but have learnt (sadly) that they have to play the game to get rid of the Tories. The big story is the fact that Labour and the LDs both lost their deposits in TnH and Wakefield respectively and will be celebrating that fact. We need a hung Parliament at the next election - Labour short by say 20-30 seats with the LDs able to plug the gap and demand STV as a price for coalition. These results tonight make that much more plausible…

I voted for AV in the referendum because it's almost the same system as in Australia and it seems to work pretty well there.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Gardenwalker said:

MoonRabbit said:

Gardenwalker said:

MoonRabbit said:

Gardenwalker said:

MoonRabbit said:

6K win for Lib Dems! Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa that’s more like it

Earthquake

Boris, do one.

Remainia more a problem for Tory’s by far than leaverstan. After locals and this, that’s unarguable now.

No, Labour’s performance is good enough.
The red wall is heading home.

It’s just overshadowed by the blue wall in full collapse. This is beyond the LD’s wildest dreams.

No it’s not! They got 1% more than the Torys managed at the GE, in mid term against this background? It’s an awful result for Labour.

Where are you getting Red Wall coming
home at GE from this flop?

Keir is doing “enough”.

I don’t like him much, and seemingly nobody else does, but he will be next PM barring a Johnson ouster.

The Tories are sleepwalking to defeat.
There’s nothing left in the tank. Nothing.

We can say goodbye to the idea of an early election, too.

Moon is one of these posters where once
they’ve made up their mind it’s like talking to
a brick wall

The result is very mildly disappointing for Labour. There’s no excitement for Keir and his project. But it’s a good enough win, and importantly I believe it shows that it is over for the Tories.

The next election is now simply about whether Labour can scrape a majority.

CarlottaVance said:

That’s a 12.7% swing from Conservative to Labour. Biggest swing to Labour in this Parliament.

Labour need a 10% swing to win a majority at the next election…

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1540167981208158208?

Subtract 4% or so for Rod Crosby Swingback, NOM

MoonRabbit said:

Andy_JS said:

ExpatMalaysia said:

Ironically - I think Electoral Reform is potentially the big long term winner here. The public are fed up with FPTP but have learnt (sadly) that they have to play the game to get rid of the Tories. The big story is the fact that Labour and the LDs both lost their deposits in TnH and Wakefield respectively and will be celebrating that fact. We need a hung Parliament at the next election - Labour short by say 20-30 seats with the LDs able to plug the gap and demand STV as a price for coalition. These results tonight make that much more plausible…

I voted for AV in the referendum because it's almost the same system as in Australia and it seems to work pretty well there.

They are still counting down there.

No - they've finished now.

https://www.aec.gov.au/

Anyway Boris "greatest electoral asset since the 70s" Johnson isn't going anywhere. He won't resign and it's too soon for another confidence vote. Everything will grind on but it strengthens the case for another vote in the autumn around the privileges Committee findings.

https://twitter.com/samfr/status/1540174774277750786

There are only 40 Tory MPs with a majority bigger than the Tiverton one. It was a rock solid safe seat. Tory since creation in 2010. In this and the two predecessor seats there had been one year in the last 137 where they weren't both held by the Tories.
https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1540172366281691137

nico679 said:

So after the Rwanda drama , rail strikes etc the Tories still got hammered . Whether the Tories would have actually removed Johnson post these by elections if they had not called the earlier confidence vote of course will be the subject of much debate .

Hopefully this result will give Starmer the confidence to come out and call this Rwanda stunt for what it is. An abomination.

Gardenwalker said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Gardenwalker said:

MoonRabbit said:

Gardenwalker said:

MoonRabbit said:

Gardenwalker said:

MoonRabbit said:

6K win for Lib Dems! Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa that’s more like it

Earthquake

Boris, do one.

Remainia more a problem for Tory’s by far than leaverstan. After locals and this, that’s unarguable now.

No, Labour’s performance is good enough.
The red wall is heading home.

It’s just overshadowed by the blue wall in full collapse. This is beyond the LD’s wildest dreams.

No it’s not! They got 1% more than the Torys managed at the GE, in mid term against this background? It’s an awful result for Labour.

Where are you getting Red Wall coming
home at GE from this flop?

Keir is doing “enough”.

I don’t like him much, and seemingly nobody else does, but he will be next PM barring a Johnson ouster.

The Tories are sleepwalking to defeat.
There’s nothing left in the tank. Nothing.

We can say goodbye to the idea of an early election, too.

Moon is one of these posters where once
they’ve made up their mind it’s like talking to
a brick wall

The result is very mildly disappointing for Labour. There’s no excitement for Keir and his project. But it’s a good enough win, and importantly I believe it shows that it is over for the Tories.

The next election is now simply about whether Labour can scrape a majority.

You can state Fantasy and hopes as much as you want, as much as Horse, Heathener and Roger too. I deal in facts.

Labour can’t even be confident of holding Wakefield at a GE on this result, with the hand sitters coming back, let alone tougher challenges in the Red Wall - that’s fact. That’s the fact this result screams at us. Far tougher red wall challenges than this at next GE, and they even have fight on to defend this.

Labour got better Red Wall results than this flop on local election night.

The polling of the seat gave them a better result than this.

Tonight was a Labour flop, once it all sinks in.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Scott_xP said:

CarlottaVance said:

Anyway Boris "greatest electoral asset since the 70s" Johnson isn't going anywhere. He won't resign and it's too soon for another confidence vote. Everything will grind on but it strengthens the case for another vote in the autumn around the privileges Committee findings.

https://twitter.com/samfr/status/1540174774277750786

A cabinet resignation or two could still oust him. But it won't.

By what precise mechanism will a Cabinet resignation oust the Prime Minister? There would need to be one that does not depend on Boris doing the right thing.

Ultimately, a vonc.

If the cabinet do not have confidence in the PM, how can the House?

MoonRabbit said:

Gardenwalker said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Gardenwalker said:

MoonRabbit said:

Gardenwalker said:

MoonRabbit said:

Gardenwalker said:

MoonRabbit said:

6K win for Lib Dems! Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa that’s more like it

Earthquake

Boris, do one.

Remainia more a problem for Tory’s by far than leaverstan. After locals and this, that’s unarguable now.

No, Labour’s performance is good enough.
The red wall is heading home.

It’s just overshadowed by the blue wall in full collapse. This is beyond the LD’s wildest dreams.

No it’s not! They got 1% more than the Torys managed at the GE, in mid term against this background? It’s an awful result for Labour.

Where are you getting Red Wall coming
home at GE from this flop?

Keir is doing “enough”.

I don’t like him much, and seemingly nobody else does, but he will be next PM barring a Johnson ouster.

The Tories are sleepwalking to defeat.
There’s nothing left in the tank. Nothing.

We can say goodbye to the idea of an early election, too.

Moon is one of these posters where once
they’ve made up their mind it’s like talking to
a brick wall

The result is very mildly disappointing for Labour. There’s no excitement for Keir and his project. But it’s a good enough win, and importantly I believe it shows that it is over for the Tories.

The next election is now simply about whether Labour can scrape a majority.

You can state Fantasy and hopes as much as you want, as much as Horse, Heathener and Roger too. I deal in facts.

Labour can’t even be confident of holding Wakefield at a GE on this result, with the hand sitters coming back, let alone tougher challenges in the Red Wall - that’s fact. That’s the fact this result screams at us. Far tougher red wall challenges than this at next GE, and they even have fight on to defend this.

Labour got better Red Wall results than this flop on local election night.

The polling of the seat gave them a better result than this.

Tonight was a Labour flop, once it all sinks in.

No, that is nonsense. The first Lab gain in a by-election in years. Not as spectacular as the LD result in Devon, but this puts Starmer comfortably in Number 10, the only question is whether as minority or majority government.

Your man Johnson is now a total liability.

Lord Frost gave Boris 3 months to “get a grip” earlier today (or yesterday).

I agree with the analysis that the ERG have Boris by the goolies, and therefore I expect him to continue spouting “wedge” nonsense unto his final exit.

The wedge stuff is not working, though. It’s actually grossly unpopular in the blue wall and is not halting a slow but discernible tide of disaffection in the red wall.

Boris is a dead man walking.

This figure is significant: the magic number for Labour to gain a majority in a general election is a 12% swing. Tonight they outperformed that in the marginal of Wakefield.
https://twitter.com/benjaminbutter/status/1540179056867557378
https://twitter.com/rewearmouth/status/1540176666600800256

Gardenwalker said:

Labour 47.9%
12.7% swing.

I’d say it’s only mildly above “par”.
Yes it delivers a majority…but it’s a by-election and nobody turned out, even to give a kicking to the nonce-fielders.

Yes, I'd agree. I think it still represents progress for Labour, so it's the right side of "meh", but not by much.

The large vote for the former Conservative councillor is interesting. Voters want to find someone other than Labour to vote for to protest against the government.

Foxy said:

MoonRabbit said:

Gardenwalker said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Gardenwalker said:

MoonRabbit said:

Gardenwalker said:

MoonRabbit said:

Gardenwalker said:

MoonRabbit said:

6K win for Lib Dems! Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa that’s more like it

Earthquake

Boris, do one.

Remainia more a problem for Tory’s by far than leaverstan. After locals and this, that’s unarguable now.

No, Labour’s performance is good enough.
The red wall is heading home.

It’s just overshadowed by the blue wall in full collapse. This is beyond the LD’s wildest dreams.

No it’s not! They got 1% more than the Torys managed at the GE, in mid term against this background? It’s an awful result for Labour.

Where are you getting Red Wall coming
home at GE from this flop?

Keir is doing “enough”.

I don’t like him much, and seemingly nobody else does, but he will be next PM barring a Johnson ouster.

The Tories are sleepwalking to defeat.
There’s nothing left in the tank. Nothing.

We can say goodbye to the idea of an early election, too.

Moon is one of these posters where once
they’ve made up their mind it’s like talking to
a brick wall

The result is very mildly disappointing for Labour. There’s no excitement for Keir and his project. But it’s a good enough win, and importantly I believe it shows that it is over for the Tories.

The next election is now simply about whether Labour can scrape a majority.

You can state Fantasy and hopes as much as you want, as much as Horse, Heathener and Roger too. I deal in facts.

Labour can’t even be confident of holding Wakefield at a GE on this result, with the hand sitters coming back, let alone tougher challenges in the Red Wall - that’s fact. That’s the fact this result screams at us. Far tougher red wall challenges than this at next GE, and they even have fight on to defend this.

Labour got better Red Wall results than this flop on local election night.

The polling of the seat gave them a better result than this.

Tonight was a Labour flop, once it all sinks in.

No, that is nonsense. The first Lab gain in a by-election in years. Not as spectacular as the LD result in Devon, but this puts Starmer comfortably in Number 10, the only question is whether as minority or majority government.

Your man Johnson is now a total liability.

You have it so wrong. Johnson is not my man. I want him out as much as you do, that’s why I am angry and frustrated at Labours failure. 1% better than Tory’s at last GE with the Tory vote depressed and hand sitting mid term?

Can’t any of you see ahead to what this means? Has the Penny not dropped?

It’s clear now, sadly, Labour are just going to have accept it’s going to take much longer for the red wall to unwind, it’s not all places going to unwind straight back to them next election. In fact Labour voters, and us Lib Dems, and Nats too I think who want change of government at next election have to Realise we have to watch through our fingers on election night, as the two opposition parties in England come from very low starting places to try and overhaul a Tory landslide majority in one go, not just wipe it out but to such extent Boris had to go. So many results in red and blue wall will be touch and go in counts, we will watch through our fingers. Believe this.

This result is just going to put pressure on Labour again to dump their leader before it’s too late, and personally I am not happy and don’t want to see much more of that either - I much prefer the boring moderate Starmer than gobby Jack in box Streeting or just plain weird Nandy as best option for removing Boris majority ☹️
Boring yes, but still the most Primeministerial thing Labour has to offer right now.

MoonRabbit said:

Foxy said:

MoonRabbit said:

Gardenwalker said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Gardenwalker said:

MoonRabbit said:

Gardenwalker said:

MoonRabbit said:

Gardenwalker said:

MoonRabbit said:

6K win for Lib Dems! Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa that’s more like it

Earthquake

Boris, do one.

Remainia more a problem for Tory’s by far than leaverstan. After locals and this, that’s unarguable now.

No, Labour’s performance is good enough.
The red wall is heading home.

It’s just overshadowed by the blue wall in full collapse. This is beyond the LD’s wildest dreams.

No it’s not! They got 1% more than the Torys managed at the GE, in mid term against this background? It’s an awful result for Labour.

Where are you getting Red Wall coming
home at GE from this flop?

Keir is doing “enough”.

I don’t like him much, and seemingly nobody else does, but he will be next PM barring a Johnson ouster.

The Tories are sleepwalking to defeat.
There’s nothing left in the tank. Nothing.

We can say goodbye to the idea of an early election, too.

Moon is one of these posters where once
they’ve made up their mind it’s like talking to
a brick wall

The result is very mildly disappointing for Labour. There’s no excitement for Keir and his project. But it’s a good enough win, and importantly I believe it shows that it is over for the Tories.

The next election is now simply about whether Labour can scrape a majority.

You can state Fantasy and hopes as much as you want, as much as Horse, Heathener and Roger too. I deal in facts.

Labour can’t even be confident of holding Wakefield at a GE on this result, with the hand sitters coming back, let alone tougher challenges in the Red Wall - that’s fact. That’s the fact this result screams at us. Far tougher red wall challenges than this at next GE, and they even have fight on to defend this.

Labour got better Red Wall results than this flop on local election night.

The polling of the seat gave them a better result than this.

Tonight was a Labour flop, once it all sinks in.

No, that is nonsense. The first Lab gain in a by-election in years. Not as spectacular as the LD result in Devon, but this puts Starmer comfortably in Number 10, the only question is whether as minority or majority government.

Your man Johnson is now a total liability.

You have it so wrong. Johnson is not my man. I want him out as much as you do, that’s why I am angry and frustrated at Labours failure. 1% better than Tory’s at last GE with the Tory vote depressed and hand sitting mid term?

Can’t any of you see ahead to what this means? Has the Penny not dropped?

It’s clear now, sadly, Labour are just going to have accept it’s going to take much longer for the red wall to unwind, it’s not all places going to unwind straight back to them next election. In fact Labour voters, and us Lib Dems, and Nats too I think who want change of government at next election have to Realise we have to watch through our fingers on election night, as the two opposition parties in England come from very low starting places to try and overhaul a Tory landslide majority in one go, not just wipe it out but to such extent Boris had to go. So many results in red and blue wall will be touch and go in counts, we will watch through our fingers. Believe this.

This result is just going to put pressure on Labour again to dump their leader before it’s too late, and personally I am not happy and don’t want to see much more of that either - I much prefer the boring moderate Starmer than gobby Jack in box Streeting or just plain weird Nandy as best option for removing Boris majority ☹️
Boring yes, but still the most Primeministerial thing Labour has to offer right now.

Now do you get why the clear message from this result is so frustrating?

Scott_xP said:

CarlottaVance said:

Anyway Boris "greatest electoral asset since the 70s" Johnson isn't going anywhere. He won't resign and it's too soon for another confidence vote. Everything will grind on but it strengthens the case for another vote in the autumn around the privileges Committee findings.

https://twitter.com/samfr/status/1540174774277750786

A cabinet resignation or two could still oust him. But it won't.

If I was a Tory MP I'd just wait until the year's up and see how it's going. At that point it'll close enough to the election to make a reasonable guess as to whether he's likely to win it or not. Right now it's still a little bit hard to call either way.

edmundintokyo said:

Right now it's still a little bit hard to call either way.

It really isn't

The Tories have lost both Wakefield and Tiverton & Honiton on big swings. Here’s why that’s an ominous sign for Boris Johnson 👇 https://twitter.com/joe_mayes/status/1538094640221540355

By-election turnout as a % of general election turnout:

Hartlepool: 74%
>Tiverton & Honiton: 72%
Batley & Spen: 71%
North Shropshire: 68%
Chesham & Amersham: 68%
>Wakefield: 61%
Birmingham Erdington: 51%
Old Bexley & Sidcup: 48%

So the low turnout in Wakefield is not out of line with other by-elections. Wakefield only turned out 64% in the GE, so a pretty hard place to motivate the GOTV.

Scott_xP said:

edmundintokyo said:

Scott_xP said:

edmundintokyo said:

Right now it's still a little bit hard to call either way.

It really isn't

I mean the polls are looking pretty Ed-Milliband-ish, Labour's leader is acceptable but not wildly loved, they just got a decent swing in a by-election but not a monster one, there are some economic problems that may well be temporary. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

The summer of discontent is just getting started.

Right but what if after that it's the winter of love