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LDs move to a 78% chance in Tiverton and Honiton – politicalbetting.com

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  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 23,562

    dixiedean said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm not here to ramp Labour's results, I am not sure talking in vote numbers is particularly helpful is it?

    I think if Labour get less than 50% of the vote that will be very disappointing?

    Need the maj sub 10k Horse
    10K is that what we are expecting?
    Depends on turnout. Percentage is far more relevant.
    There were 43k votes cast at GE. Would be surprised if there were 30k.
    There hasn't been a 10k majority since 1997. And that was only half of the current seat.
    “ Percentage is far more relevant.‘
    Explain it to me.

    Because Voters won’t stay away in even numbers, but a huge slant. That makes raw vote change from ge more important than % change in reduced numbers election. You could easily get a massive % win on much less than actually voted for you last time, and be sat on fools gold come general election.

    Labour need to win by 5 - 10K. They need to surpass the votes they got at GE. I’m looking how close they can get to the votes Tory’s recieved at last GE.
    Because turnout is always down in a by-election that's why.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 3,905

    I'm not here to ramp Labour's results, I am not sure talking in vote numbers is particularly helpful is it?

    I think if Labour get less than 50% of the vote that will be very disappointing?

    50% doesn't look like a huge stretch when you compare it with the 39.8% 2019 starting point.

    But when you then consider that Mary Creagh only managed 40% in 2015, and that the last time that Labour achieved above 50% in Wakefield was in the 1997 landslide, then it's still quite a high bar. It's also a by-election, with a plethora of alternatives there on the ballot paper for those who don't want to vote Tory.

    A convincing win with a share in the 45%-50% range and a margin over the Conservatives of 15%+ would be moderately good for Labour, anything above that a bonus.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 5,695

    slade said:

    Lab gain in Harlow.

    How many Hor deouvres we expecting Slade.
    Theres 6 by elections today i believe
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 5,695
    LD gain in Shropshire from an indy, Tories down again. Poor night so far for them
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 42,149
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    EXCLUSIVE: I am told Keir Starmer will head to Wakefield if Labour wins

    Even if they win by just 1 vote?

    The win size is important here. Mid term of worst government ever, most hopeless PM ever, in a seat that’s not even their territory, Labour should have smashed it, not limp to a “not cutting through yet here” conclusion and embarrassingly try to ramp it.

    If the wins less than 4K will you try to ramp it CHB?
    Percentage not raw numbers please.
    Also. Worst government ever?
    I can think of at least the previous four Tory-led ones.
    Why? Is that more helpful when you only have half the voters turning out, when one party’s voters sat on hands on mass mid term, and will vote again in the GE?

    The vote comparisons tell us where we are not the % of this poll. Admit you are wrong again deano.

    Looking at the votes on wiki this time, last time, time before (17) time before (15) time before (10) Labour need to clearly smash this one tonight, pile a big win on. a Labour seat captured by Tories before they turned into the most rubbish government ever, and Labour so far this parliament unconvincing in red wall - even in mid term - I refuse to let any PB Labourite hail and ramp just a mere win tonight.
    By elections always have a smaller turn out. Always have.
    So raw numbers of majority aren't the key.
    Mid Ulster by-election 1955 = 89.7%
    Mid Ulster by-election 1956 = 88.4%
    Mid Ulster by-election 1969 = 91.5%
  • sladeslade Posts: 1,546
    Lib Dem gain in Shropshire - from 0% to 54.5%
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 17,941
    edited June 23
    micktrain said:

    rel="Mexicanpete">The BBC have been very naughty with the QT audience. They seem 80% to 85% hostile to Lynch and Thomas-Symonds and very supportive of Rachael Maskell.

    @micktrain said BBC have rigged audience I think



    "I know there are a lot of Conservative voters in our audience tonight" says Fiona.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,074
    Biden’s cue cards are extremely detailed.

    image

    https://twitter.com/theblaze/status/1540074046196441095
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 5,695
    Hodges
    At the Tiverton count. Saw opening of 3 separate boxes. Based on that, this will not be a close by-election, and this will not be a Tory seat come the morning.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 5,695
    Coates Sky
    Very very early indications from the count is that things are looking good for the Lib Dems in Tiverton & Honiton.

    Be careful - early counting can mislead, & this is based on sampling - but at least one major party believes the Libs have bagged what wd be a record breaking win
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 2,286

    Biden’s cue cards are extremely detailed.

    image

    https://twitter.com/theblaze/status/1540074046196441095

    Love the reminder that “YOU take YOUR seat”. That could be an old Reagan spoof.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 14,753
    When are these results due?
  • MPartridgeMPartridge Posts: 122

    Biden’s cue cards are extremely detailed.

    image

    https://twitter.com/theblaze/status/1540074046196441095


    Where did you get this picture from?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 23,562

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    EXCLUSIVE: I am told Keir Starmer will head to Wakefield if Labour wins

    Even if they win by just 1 vote?

    The win size is important here. Mid term of worst government ever, most hopeless PM ever, in a seat that’s not even their territory, Labour should have smashed it, not limp to a “not cutting through yet here” conclusion and embarrassingly try to ramp it.

    If the wins less than 4K will you try to ramp it CHB?
    Percentage not raw numbers please.
    Also. Worst government ever?
    I can think of at least the previous four Tory-led ones.
    Why? Is that more helpful when you only have half the voters turning out, when one party’s voters sat on hands on mass mid term, and will vote again in the GE?

    The vote comparisons tell us where we are not the % of this poll. Admit you are wrong again deano.

    Looking at the votes on wiki this time, last time, time before (17) time before (15) time before (10) Labour need to clearly smash this one tonight, pile a big win on. a Labour seat captured by Tories before they turned into the most rubbish government ever, and Labour so far this parliament unconvincing in red wall - even in mid term - I refuse to let any PB Labourite hail and ramp just a mere win tonight.
    By elections always have a smaller turn out. Always have.
    So raw numbers of majority aren't the key.
    Mid Ulster by-election 1955 = 89.7%
    Mid Ulster by-election 1956 = 88.4%
    Mid Ulster by-election 1969 = 91.5%
    Proves the rule.
  • micktrainmicktrain Posts: 137


    He started to wander into the bushes when he got out of his helicopter earlier a total joke of a president

    https://twitter.com/theblaze/status/1540074046196441095
  • KeystoneKeystone Posts: 72
    TOPPING said:

    Andy_JS said:

    JACK_W said:

    My Conservative source - "We're in for a terrible drubbing tonight. The rebels should have kept their powder dry for a few weeks and Boris would have been a goner by the months end."

    Their impatience in not waiting a couple of weeks was/is bewildering.
    First they were criticised for waiting and now they are criticised for not waiting.

    They aren't suddenly going to find or keep hold of a spine. They are spineless.
    To be fair to the CPP, you have to ask yourself who would represent a credible successor, as we begin the slow descent into another recession.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 3,905

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    EXCLUSIVE: I am told Keir Starmer will head to Wakefield if Labour wins

    Even if they win by just 1 vote?

    The win size is important here. Mid term of worst government ever, most hopeless PM ever, in a seat that’s not even their territory, Labour should have smashed it, not limp to a “not cutting through yet here” conclusion and embarrassingly try to ramp it.

    If the wins less than 4K will you try to ramp it CHB?
    Percentage not raw numbers please.
    Also. Worst government ever?
    I can think of at least the previous four Tory-led ones.
    Why? Is that more helpful when you only have half the voters turning out, when one party’s voters sat on hands on mass mid term, and will vote again in the GE?

    The vote comparisons tell us where we are not the % of this poll. Admit you are wrong again deano.

    Looking at the votes on wiki this time, last time, time before (17) time before (15) time before (10) Labour need to clearly smash this one tonight, pile a big win on. a Labour seat captured by Tories before they turned into the most rubbish government ever, and Labour so far this parliament unconvincing in red wall - even in mid term - I refuse to let any PB Labourite hail and ramp just a mere win tonight.
    By elections always have a smaller turn out. Always have.
    So raw numbers of majority aren't the key.
    Mid Ulster by-election 1955 = 89.7%
    Mid Ulster by-election 1956 = 88.4%
    Mid Ulster by-election 1969 = 91.5%
    Vote early, vote often.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,641
    Cookie said:

    Anyway, a foregone conclusion and another foregone conclusion. It could have been slightly different had a few more rebels been mustered a fortnight ago, and politics has to me felt flat since then. I shall stick around no longer, but will go and see if the idiot ginger cat can be enticed in with a laser pointer and end the day on a high by drifting off to sleep cherishing the words 'Wapentake of Langbaurgh'... Good night all.

    "I will Wapentake of choice the laser pen out of the key tray, entice the cat in to bolt some biscuits too fast, which it will then immediately Langbaurgh up"?
  • micktrainmicktrain Posts: 137
    We have a senile Biden a complete joke in Johnson and a powerless macron now leading the western world
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,885
    LDs have moved from 1.4 to 1.2 in a short time.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.198663388
  • MattWMattW Posts: 14,753
    edited June 23
    micktrain said:

    rel="Mexicanpete">The BBC have been very naughty with the QT audience. They seem 80% to 85% hostile to Lynch and Thomas-Symonds and very supportive of Rachael Maskell.



    Rachaell Maskell is a member of the Socialist Campaign Group who has been supportive of Lynch.

    Do you mean someone else?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,885
    MattW said:

    When are these results due?

    Between 4 and 6.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,277
    edited June 23
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm not here to ramp Labour's results, I am not sure talking in vote numbers is particularly helpful is it?

    I think if Labour get less than 50% of the vote that will be very disappointing?

    Need the maj sub 10k Horse
    10K is that what we are expecting?
    Depends on turnout. Percentage is far more relevant.
    There were 43k votes cast at GE. Would be surprised if there were 30k.
    There hasn't been a 10k majority since 1997. And that was only half of the current seat.
    “ Percentage is far more relevant.‘
    Explain it to me.

    Because Voters won’t stay away in even numbers, but a huge slant. That makes raw vote change from ge more important than % change in reduced numbers election. You could easily get a massive % win on much less than actually voted for you last time, and be sat on fools gold come general election.

    Labour need to win by 5 - 10K. They need to surpass the votes they got at GE. I’m looking how close they can get to the votes Tory’s recieved at last GE.
    Because turnout is always down in a by-election that's why.
    Yes. But not remotely paired off! Not remotely evenly. It’s only by analysing real vote totals you can make the good bad result call.

    I’ll play along with you. 45K cast at ge, Lab got 18K of them 39%

    maybe 30K cast today - what % of that = real votes suggests Labour vote static here?

    11700 votes is Labour standing still, going nowhere. But the 15K stay at home is not evenly split between Tory and labour. Its Tory votes staying home. It’s a mid term by election after MP jailed for underage fiddling. Look at the Lib Dem surge in Devon.

    to keep it simple Labour need at least 15 to 18K from 30K here, in order to claim vote pick up from Tory and a good night. With talk of % and swings it not as clear cut for all the factors that go into a win result in this one.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,885

    Coates Sky
    Very very early indications from the count is that things are looking good for the Lib Dems in Tiverton & Honiton.

    Be careful - early counting can mislead, & this is based on sampling - but at least one major party believes the Libs have bagged what wd be a record breaking win

    In almost every constituency the Tories are massively more popular in the villages and small towns compared to the large towns, so it depends where these votes are coming from.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,438
    Andy_JS said:

    LDs have moved from 1.4 to 1.2 in a short time.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.198663388

    I'm sure everyone who has attended a count knows how obvious the result becomes well ahead of time.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,657
    MattW said:

    When are these results due?

    Wakefield 1-2, T&H 3-4.

    National polls today pretty confusing - Kantar 36/34/13/5; ComRes 42/31/10/5 - both over much the same period and both moving sharply in opposite directions.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,990
    edited June 23
    micktrain said:

    We have a senile Biden a complete joke in Johnson and a powerless macron now leading the western world

    In foreign policy Macron is not powerless, the National Assembly has little impact on the President's powers on that.

    He and Johnson are the most charismatic leaders in the G7 at present, followed by Trudeau
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,885

    MattW said:

    When are these results due?

    Wakefield 1-2, T&H 3-4.

    National polls today pretty confusing - Kantar 36/34/13/5; ComRes 42/31/10/5 - both over much the same period and both moving sharply in opposite directions.
    Those times seem a bit optimistic based on what I've read in various places.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,438
    HYUFD said:

    micktrain said:

    We have a senile Biden a complete joke in Johnson and a powerless macron now leading the western world

    In foreign policy Macron is not powerless, the National Assembly has little impact on the President's powers on that.

    He and Johnson are the most charismatic leaders in the G7 at present, followed by Trudeau
    Is it really that bad? Good God!
  • 2K majority for the Lib Dems would be a fantastic result
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 23,562
    Anyways. All will become clear in the morning.
    Good night all. Peace and blessings.
  • micktrainmicktrain Posts: 137
    Keystone said:

    TOPPING said:

    Andy_JS said:

    JACK_W said:

    My Conservative source - "We're in for a terrible drubbing tonight. The rebels should have kept their powder dry for a few weeks and Boris would have been a goner by the months end."

    Their impatience in not waiting a couple of weeks was/is bewildering.
    First they were criticised for waiting and now they are criticised for not waiting.

    They aren't suddenly going to find or keep hold of a spine.
    They are spineless.

    To be fair to the CPP, you
    have to ask yourself who would represent a credible
    successor, as we begin the slow descent into another
    recession.
    Terrible PMIS out of Europe today Economy now slowing rapidly

  • wf1954wf1954 Posts: 13
    carnforth said:

    wf1954 said:

    carnforth said:

    Exeter is in the South East of England, according to the strictures of the Network Railcard. So you can have 1/3 off rail travel to London and other points east, at any age.

    Correct, but important to point out the Network Railcard is only valid to Exeter on the slower route to London Waterloo via Salisbury and Yeovil, not the fast service to Paddington.
    Do you have a reference for that? Can’t see anything on the website. I can see from Sunil’s map that the line leaves the area, but surely it’s only the endpoints that matter?

    Here you go: https://www.thetrainline.com/trains/great-britain/railcards/network-railcard#where
    The whole line (not just the endpoints) has to be in the white shaded area.
  • pingping Posts: 2,802
    edited June 23
    BF: LDs in T&H 1/10 con ~10/1
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,277
    slade said:

    Lib Dem gain in Shropshire - from 0% to 54.5%

    Get the party started 🥳
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,885
    "Rachel Wearmouth
    @REWearmouth

    Lib Dem source tells me the party’s returns had them ahead by 5% at weekend. They worked on “too close to call” basis in final days & say huge GOTV effort has put them in a good position.

    They feel they’re on course for decent majority of poss 2k
    11:47 PM · Jun 23, 2022"
  • Labour staffer:

    "We did Ossett [the most Tory town in Wakefield] to death"

    "Best set of data I've seen at a by-election"
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,990

    2K majority for the Lib Dems would be a fantastic result

    It would be 3k less than they got in Shropshire North and 6k less than they got in Chesham and Amersham
  • pingping Posts: 2,802
    ping said:

    BF: LDs in T&H 1/10 con ~10/1

    Collapsing.

    Now Ld 1/14
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,425
    ping said:

    BF: LDs in T&H 1/10 con ~10/1

    Yep good noises coming out of there but a long way to go.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,277
    edited June 23
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm not here to ramp Labour's results, I am not sure talking in vote numbers is particularly helpful is it?

    I think if Labour get less than 50% of the vote that will be very disappointing?

    Need the maj sub 10k Horse
    10K is that what we are expecting?
    Depends on turnout. Percentage is far more relevant.
    There were 43k votes cast at GE. Would be surprised if there were 30k.
    There hasn't been a 10k majority since 1997. And that was only half of the current seat.
    “ Percentage is far more relevant.‘
    Explain it to me.

    Because Voters won’t stay away in even numbers, but a huge slant. That makes raw vote change from ge more important than % change in reduced numbers election. You could easily get a massive % win on much less than actually voted for you last time, and be sat on fools gold come general election.

    Labour need to win by 5 - 10K. They need to surpass the votes they got at GE. I’m looking how close they can get to the votes Tory’s recieved at last GE.
    Because turnout is always down in a by-election that's why.
    Deano! Labour could get 13K votes out of 30K and sexy % win back to nearest opponent with that - but I have just proved it will be an abysmal night for them on that result.

    If turnout is 30,000 votes, 11700 is standing still from last times defeat.
  • Fenster10Fenster10 Posts: 1
    First post in a long while but I still avidly follow you all. Thought I’d better post in case you thought I didn’t survive the covid experience!

    I’m no conspiracy theorist but I reckon the confidence vote was organised by the ERG. The timing was suspicious and they knew that by keeping Boris in power they basically own him.

    I had a sneaking liking for Boris as a comedic writer but as a leader he’s been poor. For a man so full of wit and ideas in his writing days he’s been bloody clueless in office.

    The Tories desperately need a men (and women) in grey suits moment.
  • sladeslade Posts: 1,546

    slade said:

    Lib Dem gain in Shropshire - from 0% to 54.5%

    Get the party started 🥳
    They are on a roll. Need to target Ludlow.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,438
    HYUFD said:

    2K majority for the Lib Dems would be a fantastic result

    It would be 3k less than they got in Shropshire North and 6k less than they got in Chesham and Amersham
    Yeah. Pretty unimpressive result for the Lib Dems all things considered. You're right as always.

    (Pssst. Nurse! Nurse!!)
  • pingping Posts: 2,802
    edited June 23
    ping said:

    BF: LDs in T&H 1/10 con ~10/1

    Collapsing.

    Now Ld 1/14

    Edit:

    LDs last matched at 1.02

    They think it’s all over…
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,074

    Biden’s cue cards are extremely detailed.

    image

    https://twitter.com/theblaze/status/1540074046196441095


    Where did you get this picture from?
    It’s a screenshot from the video in the tweet that someone posted in the replies.

  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,425
    HYUFD said:

    2K majority for the Lib Dems would be a fantastic result

    It would be 3k less than they got in Shropshire North and 6k less than they got in Chesham and Amersham
    If there was an all-out nuclear war over the western world you would still find something positive for the Conservatives.

    ;):smiley:

    Have a good night HY and all.
  • HYUFD said:

    2K majority for the Lib Dems would be a fantastic result

    It would be 3k less than they got in Shropshire North and 6k less than they got in Chesham and Amersham
    Are you alright mate?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,277
    slade said:

    slade said:

    Lib Dem gain in Shropshire - from 0% to 54.5%

    Get the party started 🥳
    They are on a roll. Need to target Ludlow.
    Don’t people call that the most boring place on earth or something?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 5,695
    edited June 23
    LDs have gone to defcon 'cautious optimism' according to Sam Coates
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,438

    slade said:

    slade said:

    Lib Dem gain in Shropshire - from 0% to 54.5%

    Get the party started 🥳
    They are on a roll. Need to target Ludlow.
    Don’t people call that the most boring place on earth or something?
    I think you'll find that's Clunton and Clunbury, Clungunford and Clun.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 34,571

    micktrain said:

    rel="Mexicanpete">The BBC have been very naughty with the QT audience. They seem 80% to 85% hostile to Lynch and Thomas-Symonds and very supportive of Rachael Maskell.

    @micktrain said BBC have rigged audience I think

    "I know there are a lot of Conservative voters in our audience tonight" says Fiona.

    Yes, the Production team on Question Time have a long history of calling on Tory plants. It is slightly balanced by Any Questions that rarely has an Audible Tory.

    Lynch held his own against them, a natural media performer.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,885
    As usual a brilliant write-up of the by-elections by Andrew Teale.

    https://medium.com/britainelects/previewing-the-by-elections-of-23rd-june-2022-911aa3154d91
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,277
    Fenster10 said:

    First post in a long while but I still avidly follow you all. Thought I’d better post in case you thought I didn’t survive the covid experience!

    I’m no conspiracy theorist but I reckon the confidence vote was organised by the ERG. The timing was suspicious and they knew that by keeping Boris in power they basically own him.

    I had a sneaking liking for Boris as a comedic writer but as a leader he’s been poor. For a man so full of wit and ideas in his writing days he’s been bloody clueless in office.

    The Tories desperately need a men (and women) in grey suits moment.

    Good call. The ERG policy agenda has been the big winner since the vonc.

    The timing of the vonc was organised by operation save big dog headed by Shapps, but ERG leaders, like Mogg, likely closely involved and their backbench votes used to trigger it.

    The 1922 committee knew exactly how it had been gamed, hence their deflated demeanour.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,885

    2K majority for the Lib Dems would be a fantastic result

    My prediction was 3K.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,277
    dixiedean said:

    Anyways. All will become clear in the morning.
    Good night all. Peace and blessings.

    Sleep well. I’ll interpret the number of votes for you in the morning.
  • TresTres Posts: 1,195
    HYUFD said:

    2K majority for the Lib Dems would be a fantastic result

    It would be 3k less than they got in Shropshire North and 6k less than they got in Chesham and Amersham
    Is it time for Johnson to go now Starmer has a lead in excess of 10% in the latest polls?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,885
    Two towns in the Tiverton constituency, including Axminster, haven't had a non-Tory MP since 1835.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,277
    Andy_JS said:

    2K majority for the Lib Dems would be a fantastic result

    My prediction was 3K.
    Quite a few PB bets went on at least a 3K win?

    Another interesting thing to watch for, I don’t think Lib Dems squeezed Labour all that well in North Shropshire, will the Labour vote hold up credibly here too?

    Green votes could actually be a syphon from Tory more than something libdems should have squeezed.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,277
    Tres said:

    HYUFD said:

    2K majority for the Lib Dems would be a fantastic result

    It would be 3k less than they got in Shropshire North and 6k less than they got in Chesham and Amersham
    Is it time for Johnson to go now Starmer has a lead in excess of 10% in the latest polls?
    Labour does not have lead in excess of 10% in the latest polls.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 5,695
    LD gain in Hindhead (Waverley), was a dead heat last time, small swing mostly Labour not standing to LD
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 480
    edited June 23
    So who's staying up for both results? T&H maybe not until 6am :(

    And who's had a bet? and on what?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,277
    Andy_JS said:

    Two towns in the Tiverton constituency, including Axminster, haven't had a non-Tory MP since 1835.

    Did they even have tractor porn in 1835?

    Jethro Tull’s Seed drill monthly probably best they had 😏
  • So a good result for Labour in Wake is?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,500

    So a good result for Labour in Wake is?

    A win
  • TresTres Posts: 1,195

    Tres said:

    HYUFD said:

    2K majority for the Lib Dems would be a fantastic result

    It would be 3k less than they got in Shropshire North and 6k less than they got in Chesham and Amersham
    Is it time for Johnson to go now Starmer has a lead in excess of 10% in the latest polls?
    Labour does not have lead in excess of 10% in the latest polls.
    https://comresglobal.com/polls/savanta-comres-political-tracker-june-2022/
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,885

    So a good result for Labour in Wake is?

    Something like more than 5,000 majority and/or more than 50% of the vote.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 5,695

    So a good result for Labour in Wake is?

    Win by over 15%
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,277
    Chris said:

    slade said:

    slade said:

    Lib Dem gain in Shropshire - from 0% to 54.5%

    Get the party started 🥳
    They are on a roll. Need to target Ludlow.
    Don’t people call that the most boring place on earth or something?
    I think you'll find that's Clunton and Clunbury, Clungunford and Clun.
    Slough? Newport Pagnall?

    Hang on, have I missed a good joke by you?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,277
    Heathener said:

    HYUFD said:

    2K majority for the Lib Dems would be a fantastic result

    It would be 3k less than they got in Shropshire North and 6k less than they got in Chesham and Amersham
    If there was an all-out nuclear war over the western world you would still find something positive for the Conservatives.

    ;):smiley:

    Have a good night HY and all.
    More retirements from Heathener tonight than Frank Sinatras career.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,935

    So a good result for Labour in Wake is?

    Over 5k maj would be a strong win
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,641

    So a good result for Labour in Wake is?

    Any double figure swing is fine by me.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,657

    LD gain in Hindhead (Waverley), was a dead heat last time, small swing mostly Labour not standing to LD

    Yes, another of those mysterious cases in Waverley where the non-Tory parties don't trip each other up.
  • Scale of the tactical voting in Tiverton and Honiton means it’s looking like Labour are going to lose their deposit.

    Tories are in big, big trouble
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 42,149
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    EXCLUSIVE: I am told Keir Starmer will head to Wakefield if Labour wins

    Even if they win by just 1 vote?

    The win size is important here. Mid term of worst government ever, most hopeless PM ever, in a seat that’s not even their territory, Labour should have smashed it, not limp to a “not cutting through yet here” conclusion and embarrassingly try to ramp it.

    If the wins less than 4K will you try to ramp it CHB?
    Percentage not raw numbers please.
    Also. Worst government ever?
    I can think of at least the previous four Tory-led ones.
    Why? Is that more helpful when you only have half the voters turning out, when one party’s voters sat on hands on mass mid term, and will vote again in the GE?

    The vote comparisons tell us where we are not the % of this poll. Admit you are wrong again deano.

    Looking at the votes on wiki this time, last time, time before (17) time before (15) time before (10) Labour need to clearly smash this one tonight, pile a big win on. a Labour seat captured by Tories before they turned into the most rubbish government ever, and Labour so far this parliament unconvincing in red wall - even in mid term - I refuse to let any PB Labourite hail and ramp just a mere win tonight.
    By elections always have a smaller turn out. Always have.
    So raw numbers of majority aren't the key.
    Mid Ulster by-election 1955 = 89.7%
    Mid Ulster by-election 1956 = 88.4%
    Mid Ulster by-election 1969 = 91.5%
    Proves the rule.
    No, at the 1966 GE, turnout was "only" 83.9%
  • Winchester, Guildford both lost. Bye bye Tories
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,885
    Sky News: some LDs believe they've won by a "double digit margin". Not sure what they mean by a double digit margin though.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,438

    Chris said:

    slade said:

    slade said:

    Lib Dem gain in Shropshire - from 0% to 54.5%

    Get the party started 🥳
    They are on a roll. Need to target Ludlow.
    Don’t people call that the most boring place on earth or something?
    I think you'll find that's Clunton and Clunbury, Clungunford and Clun.
    Slough? Newport Pagnall?

    Hang on, have I missed a good joke by you?
    It's a poem by A. E. Housman mentioning some places near Ludlow (perhaps quoting an existing saying):
    "Clunton and Clunbury , Clungunford and Clun,
    Are the quietest places Under the sun."
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 480
    Sam Coates Sky - "hearing that LDs might win by a double-digit margin" (presumably he means 10K+ rather than 10....)
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,425

    Heathener said:

    HYUFD said:

    2K majority for the Lib Dems would be a fantastic result

    It would be 3k less than they got in Shropshire North and 6k less than they got in Chesham and Amersham
    If there was an all-out nuclear war over the western world you would still find something positive for the Conservatives.

    ;):smiley:

    Have a good night HY and all.
    More retirements from Heathener tonight than Frank Sinatras career.
    Because I can't sleep :(
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,277

    MattW said:

    When are these results due?

    Wakefield 1-2, T&H 3-4.

    National polls today pretty confusing - Kantar 36/34/13/5; ComRes 42/31/10/5 - both over much the same period and both moving sharply in opposite directions.
    I’ll explain the polls again just for you Nick.

    The Savanta LLG is still only 57, two less than when Kantor gave Labour a 6 point lead,(outlier) 3 more LLG for Santos 11% than Kantors 2 point lead this very same day.

    Got that bit? What does that tell us? It certainly says don’t get excited by either poll.

    But In a way this LLG comparison between Kantor and SavCom undermines anyone saying “historically you need double digit leads mid term, only that puts pressure on Boris” because if the methodology of other companies also shaves Libdems and greens in Lab direction like this Savanta methodology, Labour quite clearly would be more widely ten+ right now.

    The labour polling strength today is more likely revealed from best PM, best on economy and other polling on issues showing very wide gaps and partly hidden by sharing % with greens and Libdems on headline figure, hence Boris not feeling the 🔥 he rightly should be getting and would have done historically in 2 or 3 party politics.

    The other thing going on is Kantor, the most favour to Conservative polling at moment, didn’t help them break out of the sub 35. And I don’t think the easy to predict opinion poll will either - with next Sundays 36-37 v 34.

    Hope that helps.

    I will dance away a few hours of what’s left of night now back later.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Sky News: some LDs believe they've won by a "double digit margin". Not sure what they mean by a double digit margin though.

    I'd be rather surprised if that wasn't 10%+ rather than up to 99 votes. The latter would be a bold call this early on.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 5,695
    Rumour mill in Westminster that Keir gets his beergate result tomorrow.......
  • Tory MP Andrea Jenkyns tells @joncraig that there are questions for Keir Starmer if Labour don't win Wakefield "spectacularly"

    "We've been in government for 12 years and it's very normal not to win by-elections"

    Sounds pretty close to a concession...

    LOL they aren't prepared to do what is necessary
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,885

    Andy_JS said:

    Sky News: some LDs believe they've won by a "double digit margin". Not sure what they mean by a double digit margin though.

    I'd be rather surprised if that wasn't 10%+ rather than up to 99 votes. The latter would be a bold call this early on.
    It wouldn't be 99 votes, it would be 9,999 votes, but that seems unlikely. So must be 10%+.
  • I understand that Keir will be receiving his Beergate result shortly. And he will likely be cleared.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sky News: some LDs believe they've won by a "double digit margin". Not sure what they mean by a double digit margin though.

    I'd be rather surprised if that wasn't 10%+ rather than up to 99 votes. The latter would be a bold call this early on.
    It wouldn't be 99 votes, it would be 9,999 votes, but that seems unlikely. So must be 10%+.
    A 10k margin would be essentially statistically impossible on a by-election turnout in a seat where the Tories got 60% last time.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,885

    Sam Coates Sky - "hearing that LDs might win by a double-digit margin" (presumably he means 10K+ rather than 10....)

    I think it must mean 10% majority.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 79,096
    TOPPING said:

    Andy_JS said:

    JACK_W said:

    My Conservative source - "We're in for a terrible drubbing tonight. The rebels should have kept their powder dry for a few weeks and Boris would have been a goner by the months end."

    Their impatience in not waiting a couple of weeks was/is bewildering.
    First they were criticised for waiting and now they are criticised for not waiting.

    They aren't suddenly going to find or keep hold of a spine. They are spineless.
    The whole thing is a nonsense. I am surprised how many people buy into the explanation if only the rebels - an uncoordinated group, pushed to their individual limits - could or should delay if they think the PM unacceptable, on the premise a host of others would see the light tonight.

    If they do see the light, the 12 month rule wont save him. The argument makes no sense.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,277
    Pulpstar said:

    So a good result for Labour in Wake is?

    Over 5k maj would be a strong win
    Nope. Depends what the number of votes cast is for starters. If we go by Deano predicting 30K 11700 is the equivalent of 18K of 45. So for good night let alone spectacular Lab will need to move away from 11700 by at least 4 or 5K. As I explained to Deano, what Tory’s poll and Labours % ahead of that is next to meaningless as the Tory vote is the stay home vote, this election is about labour very much bettering the vote equivalent of what they got last time where 45K overall is 18K 30K overall is 11700K.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,277
    Tres said:

    Tres said:

    HYUFD said:

    2K majority for the Lib Dems would be a fantastic result

    It would be 3k less than they got in Shropshire North and 6k less than they got in Chesham and Amersham
    Is it time for Johnson to go now Starmer has a lead in excess of 10% in the latest polls?
    Labour does not have lead in excess of 10% in the latest polls.
    https://comresglobal.com/polls/savanta-comres-political-tracker-june-2022/
    Thanks for proving my point. 1 poll.
    Truth is it’s 6% 33 v 39 no change.
    But that ain’t bad for change of government fans!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 79,096

    Tory MP Andrea Jenkyns tells @joncraig that there are questions for Keir Starmer if Labour don't win Wakefield "spectacularly"

    "We've been in government for 12 years and it's very normal not to win by-elections"

    Sounds pretty close to a concession...

    LOL they aren't prepared to do what is necessary

    It's one of those statements that's true and not true at the same time, so a lame dodge. Yes 12 year governments lose seats, Wakefield might be expected, but they dont generally lose 20k seats, that one wouldn't be meaningless if it happens.

    And the 10 year government won a by election so what went wrong?
  • Conservative party deputy chairman Luke Hall suggests to @SamCoatesSky that if they lose Tiverton, Tory party division will be to blame

    They need to lose the next election and go back to being sensible. These people are morons
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,438
    edited June 23

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sky News: some LDs believe they've won by a "double digit margin". Not sure what they mean by a double digit margin though.

    I'd be rather surprised if that wasn't 10%+ rather than up to 99 votes. The latter would be a bold call this early on.
    It wouldn't be 99 votes, it would be 9,999 votes, but that seems unlikely. So must be 10%+.
    A 10k margin would be essentially statistically impossible on a by-election turnout in a seat where the Tories got 60% last time.
    Will that mean that legally Johnson has to stop calling him "Sir Beer Korma"?

    Don't get me wrong - it would give me great pleasure to see Johnson resorting to that line again tomorrow.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,885
    edited June 23
    It may be that the Tories wouldn't be able to hold any seats anywhere in the country against a LD by-election challenge in those seats where they would be the main challenger, (even if they didn't come second at the GE, like Tiverton and North Shropshire). That doesn't mean the Tories wouldn't be able to hold a seat anywhere in a by-election because there are plenty of seats where it would still be a Con/Lab contest, like Castle Point for example. The LDs wouldn't be able to get in second place in that type of seat, and it would therefore be an easy Tory hold at a by-election against Labour.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 79,096

    So who's staying up for both results? T&H maybe not until 6am :(

    And who's had a bet? and on what?

    Not me, don't have the stamina. Wasnt tempted by Wakefield.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 79,096
    Andy_JS said:

    As usual a brilliant write-up of the by-elections by Andrew Teale.

    https://medium.com/britainelects/previewing-the-by-elections-of-23rd-june-2022-911aa3154d91

    I like his stuff.
  • TresTres Posts: 1,195

    Tres said:

    Tres said:

    HYUFD said:

    2K majority for the Lib Dems would be a fantastic result

    It would be 3k less than they got in Shropshire North and 6k less than they got in Chesham and Amersham
    Is it time for Johnson to go now Starmer has a lead in excess of 10% in the latest polls?
    Labour does not have lead in excess of 10% in the latest polls.
    https://comresglobal.com/polls/savanta-comres-political-tracker-june-2022/
    Thanks for proving my point. 1 poll.
    Truth is it’s 6% 33 v 39 no change.
    But that ain’t bad for change of government fans!
    yeah I was really posting to see if HYUFD is going to stick to his guns about Johnson needing to go if the Labour lead reached double figures
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,885

    So who's staying up for both results? T&H maybe not until 6am :(

    And who's had a bet? and on what?

    I wanted to put a bet on the LDs winning by more than 3,000 votes but couldn't find the relevant page.
This discussion has been closed.