I'm not here to ramp Labour's results, I am not sure talking in vote numbers is particularly helpful is it?
I think if Labour get less than 50% of the vote that will be very disappointing?
Need the maj sub 10k Horse
10K is that what we are expecting?
Depends on turnout. Percentage is far more relevant. There were 43k votes cast at GE. Would be surprised if there were 30k. There hasn't been a 10k majority since 1997. And that was only half of the current seat.
“ Percentage is far more relevant.‘ Explain it to me.
Because Voters won’t stay away in even numbers, but a huge slant. That makes raw vote change from ge more important than % change in reduced numbers election. You could easily get a massive % win on much less than actually voted for you last time, and be sat on fools gold come general election.
Labour need to win by 5 - 10K. They need to surpass the votes they got at GE. I’m looking how close they can get to the votes Tory’s recieved at last GE.
Because turnout is always down in a by-election that's why.
I'm not here to ramp Labour's results, I am not sure talking in vote numbers is particularly helpful is it?
I think if Labour get less than 50% of the vote that will be very disappointing?
50% doesn't look like a huge stretch when you compare it with the 39.8% 2019 starting point.
But when you then consider that Mary Creagh only managed 40% in 2015, and that the last time that Labour achieved above 50% in Wakefield was in the 1997 landslide, then it's still quite a high bar. It's also a by-election, with a plethora of alternatives there on the ballot paper for those who don't want to vote Tory.
A convincing win with a share in the 45%-50% range and a margin over the Conservatives of 15%+ would be moderately good for Labour, anything above that a bonus.
EXCLUSIVE: I am told Keir Starmer will head to Wakefield if Labour wins
Even if they win by just 1 vote?
The win size is important here. Mid term of worst government ever, most hopeless PM ever, in a seat that’s not even their territory, Labour should have smashed it, not limp to a “not cutting through yet here” conclusion and embarrassingly try to ramp it.
If the wins less than 4K will you try to ramp it CHB?
Percentage not raw numbers please. Also. Worst government ever? I can think of at least the previous four Tory-led ones.
Why? Is that more helpful when you only have half the voters turning out, when one party’s voters sat on hands on mass mid term, and will vote again in the GE?
The vote comparisons tell us where we are not the % of this poll. Admit you are wrong again deano.
Looking at the votes on wiki this time, last time, time before (17) time before (15) time before (10) Labour need to clearly smash this one tonight, pile a big win on. a Labour seat captured by Tories before they turned into the most rubbish government ever, and Labour so far this parliament unconvincing in red wall - even in mid term - I refuse to let any PB Labourite hail and ramp just a mere win tonight.
By elections always have a smaller turn out. Always have. So raw numbers of majority aren't the key.
rel="Mexicanpete">The BBC have been very naughty with the QT audience. They seem 80% to 85% hostile to Lynch and Thomas-Symonds and very supportive of Rachael Maskell.
Hodges At the Tiverton count. Saw opening of 3 separate boxes. Based on that, this will not be a close by-election, and this will not be a Tory seat come the morning.
Coates Sky Very very early indications from the count is that things are looking good for the Lib Dems in Tiverton & Honiton.
Be careful - early counting can mislead, & this is based on sampling - but at least one major party believes the Libs have bagged what wd be a record breaking win
EXCLUSIVE: I am told Keir Starmer will head to Wakefield if Labour wins
Even if they win by just 1 vote?
The win size is important here. Mid term of worst government ever, most hopeless PM ever, in a seat that’s not even their territory, Labour should have smashed it, not limp to a “not cutting through yet here” conclusion and embarrassingly try to ramp it.
If the wins less than 4K will you try to ramp it CHB?
Percentage not raw numbers please. Also. Worst government ever? I can think of at least the previous four Tory-led ones.
Why? Is that more helpful when you only have half the voters turning out, when one party’s voters sat on hands on mass mid term, and will vote again in the GE?
The vote comparisons tell us where we are not the % of this poll. Admit you are wrong again deano.
Looking at the votes on wiki this time, last time, time before (17) time before (15) time before (10) Labour need to clearly smash this one tonight, pile a big win on. a Labour seat captured by Tories before they turned into the most rubbish government ever, and Labour so far this parliament unconvincing in red wall - even in mid term - I refuse to let any PB Labourite hail and ramp just a mere win tonight.
By elections always have a smaller turn out. Always have. So raw numbers of majority aren't the key.
My Conservative source - "We're in for a terrible drubbing tonight. The rebels should have kept their powder dry for a few weeks and Boris would have been a goner by the months end."
Their impatience in not waiting a couple of weeks was/is bewildering.
First they were criticised for waiting and now they are criticised for not waiting.
They aren't suddenly going to find or keep hold of a spine. They are spineless.
To be fair to the CPP, you have to ask yourself who would represent a credible successor, as we begin the slow descent into another recession.
EXCLUSIVE: I am told Keir Starmer will head to Wakefield if Labour wins
Even if they win by just 1 vote?
The win size is important here. Mid term of worst government ever, most hopeless PM ever, in a seat that’s not even their territory, Labour should have smashed it, not limp to a “not cutting through yet here” conclusion and embarrassingly try to ramp it.
If the wins less than 4K will you try to ramp it CHB?
Percentage not raw numbers please. Also. Worst government ever? I can think of at least the previous four Tory-led ones.
Why? Is that more helpful when you only have half the voters turning out, when one party’s voters sat on hands on mass mid term, and will vote again in the GE?
The vote comparisons tell us where we are not the % of this poll. Admit you are wrong again deano.
Looking at the votes on wiki this time, last time, time before (17) time before (15) time before (10) Labour need to clearly smash this one tonight, pile a big win on. a Labour seat captured by Tories before they turned into the most rubbish government ever, and Labour so far this parliament unconvincing in red wall - even in mid term - I refuse to let any PB Labourite hail and ramp just a mere win tonight.
By elections always have a smaller turn out. Always have. So raw numbers of majority aren't the key.
Anyway, a foregone conclusion and another foregone conclusion. It could have been slightly different had a few more rebels been mustered a fortnight ago, and politics has to me felt flat since then. I shall stick around no longer, but will go and see if the idiot ginger cat can be enticed in with a laser pointer and end the day on a high by drifting off to sleep cherishing the words 'Wapentake of Langbaurgh'... Good night all.
"I will Wapentake of choice the laser pen out of the key tray, entice the cat in to bolt some biscuits too fast, which it will then immediately Langbaurgh up"?
rel="Mexicanpete">The BBC have been very naughty with the QT audience. They seem 80% to 85% hostile to Lynch and Thomas-Symonds and very supportive of Rachael Maskell.
Rachaell Maskell is a member of the Socialist Campaign Group who has been supportive of Lynch.
I'm not here to ramp Labour's results, I am not sure talking in vote numbers is particularly helpful is it?
I think if Labour get less than 50% of the vote that will be very disappointing?
Need the maj sub 10k Horse
10K is that what we are expecting?
Depends on turnout. Percentage is far more relevant. There were 43k votes cast at GE. Would be surprised if there were 30k. There hasn't been a 10k majority since 1997. And that was only half of the current seat.
“ Percentage is far more relevant.‘ Explain it to me.
Because Voters won’t stay away in even numbers, but a huge slant. That makes raw vote change from ge more important than % change in reduced numbers election. You could easily get a massive % win on much less than actually voted for you last time, and be sat on fools gold come general election.
Labour need to win by 5 - 10K. They need to surpass the votes they got at GE. I’m looking how close they can get to the votes Tory’s recieved at last GE.
Because turnout is always down in a by-election that's why.
Yes. But not remotely paired off! Not remotely evenly. It’s only by analysing real vote totals you can make the good bad result call.
I’ll play along with you. 45K cast at ge, Lab got 18K of them 39%
maybe 30K cast today - what % of that = real votes suggests Labour vote static here?
11700 votes is Labour standing still, going nowhere. But the 15K stay at home is not evenly split between Tory and labour. Its Tory votes staying home. It’s a mid term by election after MP jailed for underage fiddling. Look at the Lib Dem surge in Devon.
to keep it simple Labour need at least 15 to 18K from 30K here, in order to claim vote pick up from Tory and a good night. With talk of % and swings it not as clear cut for all the factors that go into a win result in this one.
Coates Sky Very very early indications from the count is that things are looking good for the Lib Dems in Tiverton & Honiton.
Be careful - early counting can mislead, & this is based on sampling - but at least one major party believes the Libs have bagged what wd be a record breaking win
In almost every constituency the Tories are massively more popular in the villages and small towns compared to the large towns, so it depends where these votes are coming from.
National polls today pretty confusing - Kantar 36/34/13/5; ComRes 42/31/10/5 - both over much the same period and both moving sharply in opposite directions.
National polls today pretty confusing - Kantar 36/34/13/5; ComRes 42/31/10/5 - both over much the same period and both moving sharply in opposite directions.
Those times seem a bit optimistic based on what I've read in various places.
Hodges At the Tiverton count. Saw opening of 3 separate boxes. Based on that, this will not be a close by-election, and this will not be a Tory seat come the morning.
If Dan Hodges has already called it for the LDs, may be hope for the Tories yet!
My Conservative source - "We're in for a terrible drubbing tonight. The rebels should have kept their powder dry for a few weeks and Boris would have been a goner by the months end."
Their impatience in not waiting a couple of weeks was/is bewildering.
First they were criticised for waiting and now they are criticised for not waiting.
They aren't suddenly going to find or keep hold of a spine. They are spineless.
To be fair to the CPP, you have to ask yourself who would represent a credible successor, as we begin the slow descent into another recession.
Terrible PMIS out of Europe today Economy now slowing rapidly
Exeter is in the South East of England, according to the strictures of the Network Railcard. So you can have 1/3 off rail travel to London and other points east, at any age.
Correct, but important to point out the Network Railcard is only valid to Exeter on the slower route to London Waterloo via Salisbury and Yeovil, not the fast service to Paddington.
Do you have a reference for that? Can’t see anything on the website. I can see from Sunil’s map that the line leaves the area, but surely it’s only the endpoints that matter?
Lib Dem source tells me the party’s returns had them ahead by 5% at weekend. They worked on “too close to call” basis in final days & say huge GOTV effort has put them in a good position.
They feel they’re on course for decent majority of poss 2k 11:47 PM · Jun 23, 2022"
I'm not here to ramp Labour's results, I am not sure talking in vote numbers is particularly helpful is it?
I think if Labour get less than 50% of the vote that will be very disappointing?
Need the maj sub 10k Horse
10K is that what we are expecting?
Depends on turnout. Percentage is far more relevant. There were 43k votes cast at GE. Would be surprised if there were 30k. There hasn't been a 10k majority since 1997. And that was only half of the current seat.
“ Percentage is far more relevant.‘ Explain it to me.
Because Voters won’t stay away in even numbers, but a huge slant. That makes raw vote change from ge more important than % change in reduced numbers election. You could easily get a massive % win on much less than actually voted for you last time, and be sat on fools gold come general election.
Labour need to win by 5 - 10K. They need to surpass the votes they got at GE. I’m looking how close they can get to the votes Tory’s recieved at last GE.
Because turnout is always down in a by-election that's why.
Deano! Labour could get 13K votes out of 30K and sexy % win back to nearest opponent with that - but I have just proved it will be an abysmal night for them on that result.
If turnout is 30,000 votes, 11700 is standing still from last times defeat.
First post in a long while but I still avidly follow you all. Thought I’d better post in case you thought I didn’t survive the covid experience!
I’m no conspiracy theorist but I reckon the confidence vote was organised by the ERG. The timing was suspicious and they knew that by keeping Boris in power they basically own him.
I had a sneaking liking for Boris as a comedic writer but as a leader he’s been poor. For a man so full of wit and ideas in his writing days he’s been bloody clueless in office.
The Tories desperately need a men (and women) in grey suits moment.
rel="Mexicanpete">The BBC have been very naughty with the QT audience. They seem 80% to 85% hostile to Lynch and Thomas-Symonds and very supportive of Rachael Maskell.
"I know there are a lot of Conservative voters in our audience tonight" says Fiona.
Yes, the Production team on Question Time have a long history of calling on Tory plants. It is slightly balanced by Any Questions that rarely has an Audible Tory.
Lynch held his own against them, a natural media performer.
First post in a long while but I still avidly follow you all. Thought I’d better post in case you thought I didn’t survive the covid experience!
I’m no conspiracy theorist but I reckon the confidence vote was organised by the ERG. The timing was suspicious and they knew that by keeping Boris in power they basically own him.
I had a sneaking liking for Boris as a comedic writer but as a leader he’s been poor. For a man so full of wit and ideas in his writing days he’s been bloody clueless in office.
The Tories desperately need a men (and women) in grey suits moment.
Good call. The ERG policy agenda has been the big winner since the vonc.
The timing of the vonc was organised by operation save big dog headed by Shapps, but ERG leaders, like Mogg, likely closely involved and their backbench votes used to trigger it.
The 1922 committee knew exactly how it had been gamed, hence their deflated demeanour.
2K majority for the Lib Dems would be a fantastic result
My prediction was 3K.
Quite a few PB bets went on at least a 3K win?
Another interesting thing to watch for, I don’t think Lib Dems squeezed Labour all that well in North Shropshire, will the Labour vote hold up credibly here too?
Green votes could actually be a syphon from Tory more than something libdems should have squeezed.
EXCLUSIVE: I am told Keir Starmer will head to Wakefield if Labour wins
Even if they win by just 1 vote?
The win size is important here. Mid term of worst government ever, most hopeless PM ever, in a seat that’s not even their territory, Labour should have smashed it, not limp to a “not cutting through yet here” conclusion and embarrassingly try to ramp it.
If the wins less than 4K will you try to ramp it CHB?
Percentage not raw numbers please. Also. Worst government ever? I can think of at least the previous four Tory-led ones.
Why? Is that more helpful when you only have half the voters turning out, when one party’s voters sat on hands on mass mid term, and will vote again in the GE?
The vote comparisons tell us where we are not the % of this poll. Admit you are wrong again deano.
Looking at the votes on wiki this time, last time, time before (17) time before (15) time before (10) Labour need to clearly smash this one tonight, pile a big win on. a Labour seat captured by Tories before they turned into the most rubbish government ever, and Labour so far this parliament unconvincing in red wall - even in mid term - I refuse to let any PB Labourite hail and ramp just a mere win tonight.
By elections always have a smaller turn out. Always have. So raw numbers of majority aren't the key.
Don’t people call that the most boring place on earth or something?
I think you'll find that's Clunton and Clunbury, Clungunford and Clun.
Slough? Newport Pagnall?
Hang on, have I missed a good joke by you?
It's a poem by A. E. Housman mentioning some places near Ludlow (perhaps quoting an existing saying): "Clunton and Clunbury , Clungunford and Clun, Are the quietest places Under the sun."
National polls today pretty confusing - Kantar 36/34/13/5; ComRes 42/31/10/5 - both over much the same period and both moving sharply in opposite directions.
I’ll explain the polls again just for you Nick.
The Savanta LLG is still only 57, two less than when Kantor gave Labour a 6 point lead,(outlier) 3 more LLG for Santos 11% than Kantors 2 point lead this very same day.
Got that bit? What does that tell us? It certainly says don’t get excited by either poll.
But In a way this LLG comparison between Kantor and SavCom undermines anyone saying “historically you need double digit leads mid term, only that puts pressure on Boris” because if the methodology of other companies also shaves Libdems and greens in Lab direction like this Savanta methodology, Labour quite clearly would be more widely ten+ right now.
The labour polling strength today is more likely revealed from best PM, best on economy and other polling on issues showing very wide gaps and partly hidden by sharing % with greens and Libdems on headline figure, hence Boris not feeling the 🔥 he rightly should be getting and would have done historically in 2 or 3 party politics.
The other thing going on is Kantor, the most favour to Conservative polling at moment, didn’t help them break out of the sub 35. And I don’t think the easy to predict opinion poll will either - with next Sundays 36-37 v 34.
Hope that helps.
I will dance away a few hours of what’s left of night now back later.
My Conservative source - "We're in for a terrible drubbing tonight. The rebels should have kept their powder dry for a few weeks and Boris would have been a goner by the months end."
Their impatience in not waiting a couple of weeks was/is bewildering.
First they were criticised for waiting and now they are criticised for not waiting.
They aren't suddenly going to find or keep hold of a spine. They are spineless.
The whole thing is a nonsense. I am surprised how many people buy into the explanation if only the rebels - an uncoordinated group, pushed to their individual limits - could or should delay if they think the PM unacceptable, on the premise a host of others would see the light tonight.
If they do see the light, the 12 month rule wont save him. The argument makes no sense.
Nope. Depends what the number of votes cast is for starters. If we go by Deano predicting 30K 11700 is the equivalent of 18K of 45. So for good night let alone spectacular Lab will need to move away from 11700 by at least 4 or 5K. As I explained to Deano, what Tory’s poll and Labours % ahead of that is next to meaningless as the Tory vote is the stay home vote, this election is about labour very much bettering the vote equivalent of what they got last time where 45K overall is 18K 30K overall is 11700K.
Tory MP Andrea Jenkyns tells @joncraig that there are questions for Keir Starmer if Labour don't win Wakefield "spectacularly"
"We've been in government for 12 years and it's very normal not to win by-elections"
Sounds pretty close to a concession...
LOL they aren't prepared to do what is necessary
It's one of those statements that's true and not true at the same time, so a lame dodge. Yes 12 year governments lose seats, Wakefield might be expected, but they dont generally lose 20k seats, that one wouldn't be meaningless if it happens.
And the 10 year government won a by election so what went wrong?
It may be that the Tories wouldn't be able to hold any seats anywhere in the country against a LD by-election challenge in those seats where they would be the main challenger, (even if they didn't come second at the GE, like Tiverton and North Shropshire). That doesn't mean the Tories wouldn't be able to hold a seat anywhere in a by-election because there are plenty of seats where it would still be a Con/Lab contest, like Castle Point for example. The LDs wouldn't be able to get in second place in that type of seat, and it would therefore be an easy Tory hold at a by-election against Labour.
Comments
But when you then consider that Mary Creagh only managed 40% in 2015, and that the last time that Labour achieved above 50% in Wakefield was in the 1997 landslide, then it's still quite a high bar. It's also a by-election, with a plethora of alternatives there on the ballot paper for those who don't want to vote Tory.
A convincing win with a share in the 45%-50% range and a margin over the Conservatives of 15%+ would be moderately good for Labour, anything above that a bonus.
Mid Ulster by-election 1956 = 88.4%
Mid Ulster by-election 1969 = 91.5%
"I know there are a lot of Conservative voters in our audience tonight" says Fiona.
https://twitter.com/theblaze/status/1540074046196441095
At the Tiverton count. Saw opening of 3 separate boxes. Based on that, this will not be a close by-election, and this will not be a Tory seat come the morning.
Very very early indications from the count is that things are looking good for the Lib Dems in Tiverton & Honiton.
Be careful - early counting can mislead, & this is based on sampling - but at least one major party believes the Libs have bagged what wd be a record breaking win
Where did you get this picture from?
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.198663388
Rachaell Maskell is a member of the Socialist Campaign Group who has been supportive of Lynch.
Do you mean someone else?
I’ll play along with you. 45K cast at ge, Lab got 18K of them 39%
maybe 30K cast today - what % of that = real votes suggests Labour vote static here?
11700 votes is Labour standing still, going nowhere. But the 15K stay at home is not evenly split between Tory and labour. Its Tory votes staying home. It’s a mid term by election after MP jailed for underage fiddling. Look at the Lib Dem surge in Devon.
to keep it simple Labour need at least 15 to 18K from 30K here, in order to claim vote pick up from Tory and a good night. With talk of % and swings it not as clear cut for all the factors that go into a win result in this one.
National polls today pretty confusing - Kantar 36/34/13/5; ComRes 42/31/10/5 - both over much the same period and both moving sharply in opposite directions.
He and Johnson are the most charismatic leaders in the G7 at present, followed by Trudeau
Good night all. Peace and blessings.
The whole line (not just the endpoints) has to be in the white shaded area.
@REWearmouth
Lib Dem source tells me the party’s returns had them ahead by 5% at weekend. They worked on “too close to call” basis in final days & say huge GOTV effort has put them in a good position.
They feel they’re on course for decent majority of poss 2k
11:47 PM · Jun 23, 2022"
"We did Ossett [the most Tory town in Wakefield] to death"
"Best set of data I've seen at a by-election"
Now Ld 1/14
If turnout is 30,000 votes, 11700 is standing still from last times defeat.
I’m no conspiracy theorist but I reckon the confidence vote was organised by the ERG. The timing was suspicious and they knew that by keeping Boris in power they basically own him.
I had a sneaking liking for Boris as a comedic writer but as a leader he’s been poor. For a man so full of wit and ideas in his writing days he’s been bloody clueless in office.
The Tories desperately need a men (and women) in grey suits moment.
(Pssst. Nurse! Nurse!!)
Now Ld 1/14
Edit:
LDs last matched at 1.02
They think it’s all over…
Have a good night HY and all.
Yes, the Production team on Question Time have a long history of calling on Tory plants. It is slightly balanced by Any Questions that rarely has an Audible Tory.
Lynch held his own against them, a natural media performer.
https://medium.com/britainelects/previewing-the-by-elections-of-23rd-june-2022-911aa3154d91
The timing of the vonc was organised by operation save big dog headed by Shapps, but ERG leaders, like Mogg, likely closely involved and their backbench votes used to trigger it.
The 1922 committee knew exactly how it had been gamed, hence their deflated demeanour.
Another interesting thing to watch for, I don’t think Lib Dems squeezed Labour all that well in North Shropshire, will the Labour vote hold up credibly here too?
Green votes could actually be a syphon from Tory more than something libdems should have squeezed.
And who's had a bet? and on what?
Jethro Tull’s Seed drill monthly probably best they had 😏
Hang on, have I missed a good joke by you?
Tories are in big, big trouble
"Clunton and Clunbury , Clungunford and Clun,
Are the quietest places Under the sun."
The Savanta LLG is still only 57, two less than when Kantor gave Labour a 6 point lead,(outlier) 3 more LLG for Santos 11% than Kantors 2 point lead this very same day.
Got that bit? What does that tell us? It certainly says don’t get excited by either poll.
But In a way this LLG comparison between Kantor and SavCom undermines anyone saying “historically you need double digit leads mid term, only that puts pressure on Boris” because if the methodology of other companies also shaves Libdems and greens in Lab direction like this Savanta methodology, Labour quite clearly would be more widely ten+ right now.
The labour polling strength today is more likely revealed from best PM, best on economy and other polling on issues showing very wide gaps and partly hidden by sharing % with greens and Libdems on headline figure, hence Boris not feeling the 🔥 he rightly should be getting and would have done historically in 2 or 3 party politics.
The other thing going on is Kantor, the most favour to Conservative polling at moment, didn’t help them break out of the sub 35. And I don’t think the easy to predict opinion poll will either - with next Sundays 36-37 v 34.
Hope that helps.
I will dance away a few hours of what’s left of night now back later.
"We've been in government for 12 years and it's very normal not to win by-elections"
Sounds pretty close to a concession...
LOL they aren't prepared to do what is necessary
If they do see the light, the 12 month rule wont save him. The argument makes no sense.
Truth is it’s 6% 33 v 39 no change.
But that ain’t bad for change of government fans!
And the 10 year government won a by election so what went wrong?
They need to lose the next election and go back to being sensible. These people are morons
Don't get me wrong - it would give me great pleasure to see Johnson resorting to that line again tomorrow.