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LDs move to a 78% chance in Tiverton and Honiton – politicalbetting.com

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  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 437
    kle4 said:

    So who's staying up for both results? T&H maybe not until 6am :(

    And who's had a bet? and on what?

    Not me, don't have the stamina. Wasnt tempted by Wakefield.
    It's nights like this I wish we did it Canadian-style and counted at polling stations, updating the result as each station finishes counting.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,102
    Andy_JS said:

    JACK_W said:

    My Conservative source - "We're in for a terrible drubbing tonight. The rebels should have kept their powder dry for a few weeks and Boris would have been a goner by the months end."

    Their impatience in not waiting a couple of weeks was/is bewildering.
    Nah what was bewildering is that in a PRIVATE vote every single Tory MP didn't vote him out.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 76,951

    kle4 said:

    So who's staying up for both results? T&H maybe not until 6am :(

    And who's had a bet? and on what?

    Not me, don't have the stamina. Wasnt tempted by Wakefield.
    It's nights like this I wish we did it Canadian-style and counted at polling stations, updating the result as each station finishes counting.
    Keeps things ticking along, very exciting. Might diminish the drama of a long night, misunderstandings of piled up bundles, and off kilter speculation though.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 6,398
    Tres said:

    Tres said:

    Tres said:

    HYUFD said:

    2K majority for the Lib Dems would be a fantastic result

    It would be 3k less than they got in Shropshire North and 6k less than they got in Chesham and Amersham
    Is it time for Johnson to go now Starmer has a lead in excess of 10% in the latest polls?
    Labour does not have lead in excess of 10% in the latest polls.
    https://comresglobal.com/polls/savanta-comres-political-tracker-june-2022/
    Thanks for proving my point. 1 poll.
    Truth is it’s 6% 33 v 39 no change.
    But that ain’t bad for change of government fans!
    yeah I was really posting to see if HYUFD is going to stick to his guns about Johnson needing to go if the Labour lead reached double figures
    I know 😂 I did to you what you were trying to do to him !

    Don’t know why I did that though.

    I am drunk.
  • Pulpstar said:

    So a good result for Labour in Wake is?

    Over 5k maj would be a strong win
    Nope. Depends what the number of votes cast is for starters. If we go by Deano predicting 30K 11700 is the equivalent of 18K of 45. So for good night let alone spectacular Lab will need to move away from 11700 by at least 4 or 5K. As I explained to Deano, what Tory’s poll and Labours % ahead of that is next to meaningless as the Tory vote is the stay home vote, this election is about labour very much bettering the vote equivalent of what they got last time where 45K overall is 18K 30K overall is 11700K.
    I'm not convinced by this. By-election turnout is normally significantly down on a General Election as the government is not, in fact, at stake. So I'm sure Tory turnout will be down, but Labour will be to an only slightly lesser extent.

    To give an example, the absolute Tory vote in the Norwich North by-election gain in 2009 was materially down on 2005 but was a milestone towards what wasn't a massive but was a sufficient Tory win in 2010.
  • Labour very comfortable about winning Wakefield from the Tories and are hopeful of a swing of at least 9%
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 437
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    So who's staying up for both results? T&H maybe not until 6am :(

    And who's had a bet? and on what?

    Not me, don't have the stamina. Wasnt tempted by Wakefield.
    It's nights like this I wish we did it Canadian-style and counted at polling stations, updating the result as each station finishes counting.
    Keeps things ticking along, very exciting. Might diminish the drama of a long night, misunderstandings of piled up bundles, and off kilter speculation though.
    Yes for sure. I think if this was Canada both these seats would probably have been called already after the first few stations reported.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 76,951
    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    JACK_W said:

    My Conservative source - "We're in for a terrible drubbing tonight. The rebels should have kept their powder dry for a few weeks and Boris would have been a goner by the months end."

    Their impatience in not waiting a couple of weeks was/is bewildering.
    Nah what was bewildering is that in a PRIVATE vote every single Tory MP didn't vote him out.
    Some fear his retribution, some want his favour, some think they are shafted without him, and some, no doubt, think he's fantastic.

    Those of who dislike him may be stunned any voted for him. But really that it was even as close as it was is crazy given he led them to a huge victory just 3 years ago and he's not torn apart on Brexit.

    How bad has he been to push that many against him?
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 437
    Ok so question if T&H goes LD does 2021-22 with C&A, SN, and T&H become one of their best ever by-elections runs since the 1990s and (with the Liberals) the early 1970s?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 3,942

    Labour very comfortable about winning Wakefield from the Tories and are hopeful of a swing of at least 9%

    That would be a win by 10%, bare minimum. And if the Con friendly Indy saves deposit. Ouch.
    I suspect the swing will be much bigger
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,289
    The thing that would worry me if I were a Labour supporter would be that the party needs a 10.4% swing to win a majority at the next election under the current boundaries. If they can't reach that figure at a by-election in a constituency like Wakefield in mid-term they're almost certainly not going to get it at a general election.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 437
    Andy_JS said:

    The thing that would worry me if I were a Labour supporter would be that the party needs a 10.4% swing to win a majority at the next election under the current boundaries. If they can't reach that figure at a by-election in a constituency like Wakefield in mid-term they're almost certainly not going to get it at a general election.

    I think one of the hurdles Labour will be looking to clear at a GE is if they can't win a majority, is that Lab + LD (conf & supply) is a majority, so they don't need to rely on the SNP?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,153
    Chris said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sky News: some LDs believe they've won by a "double digit margin". Not sure what they mean by a double digit margin though.

    I'd be rather surprised if that wasn't 10%+ rather than up to 99 votes. The latter would be a bold call this early on.
    It wouldn't be 99 votes, it would be 9,999 votes, but that seems unlikely. So must be 10%+.
    A 10k margin would be essentially statistically impossible on a by-election turnout in a seat where the Tories got 60% last time.
    Will that mean that legally Johnson has to stop calling him "Sir Beer Korma"?

    Don't get me wrong - it would give me great pleasure to see Johnson resorting to that line again tomorrow.
    Not only that, but I should like to hear him call the leader of the Liberal Democrats something equally witty and devastating, such as "SIR RED BABY".

    I think I have the potential to be a Tory speech writer. I really do.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,163
    How long is Boris going to be out of the country for?

    Maybe he won't have a job by the time he gets home lol? ;)
  • pingping Posts: 2,383
    edited June 24
    Great discussion tonight on the polling station live YouTube.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Po9frxkDvPI

    Shame I’m one of only 56 people watching!
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,069
    DevonLive reporting that a bat briefly invaded the media room at counting centre for Tiverton and Honiton (or is it Toniton and Hiverton?) by-election.

    Not reported IF said bat was named Carrie OR Nadine.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,163
    Well my days of being able to stay up all night for elections are over for the time being so I shall say goodnight PB and enjoy the declarations when they arrive.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 437
    Wakefield turnout 39%
  • Ok so question if T&H goes LD does 2021-22 with C&A, SN, and T&H become one of their best ever by-elections runs since the 1990s and (with the Liberals) the early 1970s?

    It's a very encouraging run for them. But remember the low base.

    Brent East, Leicester South, and Birmingham Hodge Hill (near miss) was a fabulous series between 2001 and 2005 elections. As was Newbury, Christchurch, Eastleigh, and Little & Sad between 1992 and 1997.

    I'd say those were comparable runs given the base. Both presaged good general elections for the Lib Dems, but not era-redefining ones.

    Not seeking to play it down - very pleasing results - but the mould remains broadly intact.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,289
    My turnout predictions from 24 hours ago were 40% in Wakefield and 53% in Tiverton.
  • Andy_JS said:

    The thing that would worry me if I were a Labour supporter would be that the party needs a 10.4% swing to win a majority at the next election under the current boundaries. If they can't reach that figure at a by-election in a constituency like Wakefield in mid-term they're almost certainly not going to get it at a general election.

    The thing that would worry me if I were a Tory supporter is that Labour don't need to win a majority... they need the Conservatives to lose their majority.

    UN-COALITION-ABLE.
  • Labour all but claiming victory in Wakefield

    Louise Haigh tells Sky's @joncraig she is "feeling quite comfortable," "confident that we've done well today" and "hopeful of a Labour victory"

    Turnout 39 per cent — decent by by-election standards
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,289
    edited June 24
    Not winning Wakefield would have been a catastrophe for Labour. A large number of their MPs would probably have called for Keir Starmer to resign.
  • sladeslade Posts: 1,520
    Lib Dems win 3 in Kingston.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Not winning Wakefield would have been a catastrophe for Labour. A large number of their MPs would probably have called for Keir Starmer to resign.

    I think what it shows is that Keir Starmer is not a drag on Labour's vote like Corbyn - but is not a net winner either.

    But against Johnson that's probably enough. And he's realised that long ago IMHO
  • Senior Tory source tells me that unlike in North Shropshire the party’s vote is holding up.

    But there has been a complete polarisation here in Devon, which means the Lib Dems have cleaned up all the Labour and Green votes.

    “You can see the piles of votes…”

    Ed Davey and Starmer however, are seemingly magicians at getting votes from each other
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 437
    edited June 24

    Andy_JS said:

    Not winning Wakefield would have been a catastrophe for Labour. A large number of their MPs would probably have called for Keir Starmer to resign.

    I think what it shows is that Keir Starmer is not a drag on Labour's vote like Corbyn - but is not a net winner either.

    But against Johnson that's probably enough. And he's realised that long ago IMHO
    Labour under SKS all feels very Ed Miliband to me (in fact I think EM had bigger leads as Lab leader?) - the recent polling I think is actually pretty good for the Cons considering everything - this is light years away from 1992-7 certainly in terms of the polls.

    Also Penny Mordaunt getting a lot of support as next Con leader from The Polling Station on YouTube, Hunt much less so!
  • Andy_JS said:

    Not winning Wakefield would have been a catastrophe for Labour. A large number of their MPs would probably have called for Keir Starmer to resign.

    Had Labour failed to gain a seat they need to gain, it would have been very bad for Labour, I agree.

    In the interests of consensus, do you agree that it's very bad for the Tories to lose a seat they need to hold?
  • Andy_JS said:

    Not winning Wakefield would have been a catastrophe for Labour. A large number of their MPs would probably have called for Keir Starmer to resign.

    I think what it shows is that Keir Starmer is not a drag on Labour's vote like Corbyn - but is not a net winner either.

    But against Johnson that's probably enough. And he's realised that long ago IMHO
    Labour under SKS all feels very Ed Miliband to me (in fact I think EM had bigger leads as Lab leader?) - the recent polling I think is actually pretty good for the Cons considering everything - this is light years away from 1992-7 certainly in terms of the polls.

    Also Penny Mordaunt getting a lot of support as next Con leader from The Polling Station on YouTube, Hunt much less so!
    Starmer has much better leadership ratings than Ed
  • Some in the camp now believe the swing to Labour will top 10%. A source says "lifelong Tory voters and those we lost in 2019 are voting Labour"
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 3,952
    edited June 24

    Senior Tory source tells me that unlike in North Shropshire the party’s vote is holding up.

    But there has been a complete polarisation here in Devon, which means the Lib Dems have cleaned up all the Labour and Green votes.

    “You can see the piles of votes…”

    Ed Davey and Starmer however, are seemingly magicians at getting votes from each other

    What do they mean by "holding up"?

    If the Tory vote is holding up - whether absolutely or relatively - it means an EASY win for them.

    This stinks of spin.
  • I think above 10% will be decent for Labour in Wakefield, not remarkable but probably good enough to cement Keir in position assuming beergate comes off good for him
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 437
    52% turnout T&H
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 6,398

    Pulpstar said:

    So a good result for Labour in Wake is?

    Over 5k maj would be a strong win
    Nope. Depends what the number of votes cast is for starters. If we go by Deano predicting 30K 11700 is the equivalent of 18K of 45. So for good night let alone spectacular Lab will need to move away from 11700 by at least 4 or 5K. As I explained to Deano, what Tory’s poll and Labours % ahead of that is next to meaningless as the Tory vote is the stay home vote, this election is about labour very much bettering the vote equivalent of what they got last time where 45K overall is 18K 30K overall is 11700K.
    I'm not convinced by this. By-election turnout is normally significantly down on a General Election as the government is not, in fact, at stake. So I'm sure Tory turnout will be down, but Labour will be to an only slightly lesser extent.

    To give an example, the absolute Tory vote in the Norwich North by-election gain in 2009 was materially down on 2005 but was a milestone towards what wasn't a massive but was a sufficient Tory win in 2010.
    Not the first time you have challenged my psephology sir, but I don’t hold that against you but it seems Norfolk & Chance we will ever agree on anything.

    I’ll explain my method of determining good or bad again, it’s so simple.

    Once I know the number of votes cast, I’ll calculate 40% of it if it’s 45K then that’s 18K labour have to exceed by many thousands of votes (last times result from last times votes, so if that number votes they have to exceed it by thousands don’t they). Ditto 40% of 30K 11500 they need to exceed by many thousands.

    It’s 40% of 27205

    10882 Is equivalent to the abysmal losing vote Labour got last time, they needs many thousands more than this before they can call it a good night.

    Regardless what votes the Tory’s get, regardless what % Labour are ahead of them, Labour need to pull away from 10882.

    13602 is 50% Labour need about 14700 of the 27205 for a good night in my opinion.

    Why does it need to be so decisive?
    Labour seat narrowly captured by Tories before they turned into the most rubbish government ever
    Mid term by election during governing party of 22 years polling slump
    Partygate.
    MP jailed and Labour campaign went big on it.
    Labours Red Wall struggles in last months locals needing put to bed.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 437
    Wakefield declaration expected 4am
  • sladeslade Posts: 1,520
    Lib Dems 20,000+?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 6,398

    I think above 10% will be decent for Labour in Wakefield, not remarkable but probably good enough to cement Keir in position assuming beergate comes off good for him

    10% of what? Meaningless rubbish.

    Firstly why it must be above 50% to be a good win.

    Labour seat narrowly captured by Tories before they turned into the most rubbish government ever
    Mid term by election during governing party of 22 years polling slump
    Partygate.
    MP jailed and Labour campaign went big on it.
    Labours Red Wall struggles in last months locals needing put to bed.
    It’s Tory voters hiding from this polling station, Labour should be gagging to get down there with spare pencil.

    Now the raw numbers.

    40% of 27205

    10882 Is equivalent to the abysmal losing vote Labour got last time, they needs many thousands more than this before they can call it a good night.

    Regardless what votes the Tory’s get, regardless what % Labour are ahead of them, Labour need to pull away from 10882.

    13602 is 50% Labour need about 14700 of the 27205 for a good night or it doesn’t match the reasons listed above why it needs to be convincing
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 6,398

    Andy_JS said:

    Not winning Wakefield would have been a catastrophe for Labour. A large number of their MPs would probably have called for Keir Starmer to resign.

    I think what it shows is that Keir Starmer is not a drag on Labour's vote like Corbyn - but is not a net winner either.

    But against Johnson that's probably enough. And he's realised that long ago IMHO
    Labour under SKS all feels very Ed Miliband to me (in fact I think EM had bigger leads as Lab leader?) - the recent polling I think is actually pretty good for the Cons considering everything - this is light years away from 1992-7 certainly in terms of the polls.

    Also Penny Mordaunt getting a lot of support as next Con leader from The Polling Station on YouTube, Hunt much less so!
    Starmer has much better leadership ratings than Ed
    Was it really time for a change in 2015 like now?
  • pingping Posts: 2,383
    BF T&H

    Liquidity pretty much dried up.

    A few pounds available for LD’s at 1.06/7
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 3,952
    edited June 24

    Pulpstar said:

    So a good result for Labour in Wake is?

    Over 5k maj would be a strong win
    Nope. Depends what the number of votes cast is for starters. If we go by Deano predicting 30K 11700 is the equivalent of 18K of 45. So for good night let alone spectacular Lab will need to move away from 11700 by at least 4 or 5K. As I explained to Deano, what Tory’s poll and Labours % ahead of that is next to meaningless as the Tory vote is the stay home vote, this election is about labour very much bettering the vote equivalent of what they got last time where 45K overall is 18K 30K overall is 11700K.
    I'm not convinced by this. By-election turnout is normally significantly down on a General Election as the government is not, in fact, at stake. So I'm sure Tory turnout will be down, but Labour will be to an only slightly lesser extent.

    To give an example, the absolute Tory vote in the Norwich North by-election gain in 2009 was materially down on 2005 but was a milestone towards what wasn't a massive but was a sufficient Tory win in 2010.
    Not the first time you have challenged my psephology sir, but I don’t hold that against you but it seems Norfolk & Chance we will ever agree on anything.

    I’ll explain my method of determining good or bad again, it’s so simple.

    Once I know the number of votes cast, I’ll calculate 40% of it if it’s 45K then that’s 18K labour have to exceed by many thousands of votes (last times result from last times votes, so if that number votes they have to exceed it by thousands don’t they). Ditto 40% of 30K 11500 they need to exceed by many thousands.

    It’s 40% of 27205

    10882 Is equivalent to the abysmal losing vote Labour got last time, they needs many thousands more than this before they can call it a good night.

    Regardless what votes the Tory’s get, regardless what % Labour are ahead of them, Labour need to pull away from 10882.

    13602 is 50% Labour need about 14700 of the 27205 for a good night in my opinion.

    Why does it need to be so decisive?
    Labour seat narrowly captured by Tories before they turned into the most rubbish government ever
    Mid term by election during governing party of 22 years polling slump
    Partygate.
    MP jailed and Labour campaign went big on it.
    Labours Red Wall struggles in last months locals needing put to bed.
    I agree this isn't 1996. That's not my feeling on the doorsteps, and I'm not looking at a 1997 result.

    It does, however, feel like 2009 but with a less credible PM for a difficult period ahead.

    Opposition wins with big swings and increased votes in absolute as well as real terms would be 1996. Opposition wins with decent swings on modest turnout is 2009.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 6,398

    Pulpstar said:

    So a good result for Labour in Wake is?

    Over 5k maj would be a strong win
    Nope. Depends what the number of votes cast is for starters. If we go by Deano predicting 30K 11700 is the equivalent of 18K of 45. So for good night let alone spectacular Lab will need to move away from 11700 by at least 4 or 5K. As I explained to Deano, what Tory’s poll and Labours % ahead of that is next to meaningless as the Tory vote is the stay home vote, this election is about labour very much bettering the vote equivalent of what they got last time where 45K overall is 18K 30K overall is 11700K.
    I'm not convinced by this. By-election turnout is normally significantly down on a General Election as the government is not, in fact, at stake. So I'm sure Tory turnout will be down, but Labour will be to an only slightly lesser extent.

    To give an example, the absolute Tory vote in the Norwich North by-election gain in 2009 was materially down on 2005 but was a milestone towards what wasn't a massive but was a sufficient Tory win in 2010.
    Not the first time you have challenged my psephology sir, but I don’t hold that against you but it seems Norfolk & Chance we will ever agree on anything.

    I’ll explain my method of determining good or bad again, it’s so simple.

    Once I know the number of votes cast, I’ll calculate 40% of it if it’s 45K then that’s 18K labour have to exceed by many thousands of votes (last times result from last times votes, so if that number votes they have to exceed it by thousands don’t they). Ditto 40% of 30K 11500 they need to exceed by many thousands.

    It’s 40% of 27205

    10882 Is equivalent to the abysmal losing vote Labour got last time, they needs many thousands more than this before they can call it a good night.

    Regardless what votes the Tory’s get, regardless what % Labour are ahead of them, Labour need to pull away from 10882.

    13602 is 50% Labour need about 14700 of the 27205 for a good night in my opinion.

    Why does it need to be so decisive?
    Labour seat narrowly captured by Tories before they turned into the most rubbish government ever
    Mid term by election during governing party of 22 years polling slump
    Partygate.
    MP jailed and Labour campaign went big on it.
    Labours Red Wall struggles in last months locals needing put to bed.
    I agree this isn't 1996. That's not my feeling on the doorsteps, and I'm not looking at a 1997 result.

    It does, however, feel like 2009 but with a less credible PM for a difficult period ahead.

    Opposition wins with big swings and increased votes in absolute as well as real terms would be 1996. Opposition wins with decent swings on modest turnout is 2009.
    Have you answered the wrong post?

    And I’m the one whose drunk.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 437
    Well on one of the tables at T&H there were plenty more votes in the blue basket than the yellow one on the Sky report FWIW
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,289

    Senior Tory source tells me that unlike in North Shropshire the party’s vote is holding up.

    But there has been a complete polarisation here in Devon, which means the Lib Dems have cleaned up all the Labour and Green votes.

    “You can see the piles of votes…”

    Ed Davey and Starmer however, are seemingly magicians at getting votes from each other

    The Tories got 60% at the GE so the LDs need to win at least 10-15% from the Tories, not just Lab and Green votes.
  • Well on one of the tables at T&H there were plenty more votes in the blue basket than the yellow one on the Sky report FWIW

    Hmmm. This depends very much on how they organise it. Generally, baskets get emptied and carted off to counted votes as they become full. So an apparently modest basket can either mean a moderate vote... or a very big vote requiring the basket to be regularly emptied.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,525
    edited June 24
    Minor party person saying Labour landslide in some wards and competitive in Tory friendly wards.

    Possible David Herdson reading via Sky (probably only him or the Loony capable of psephology)?? But would also be a fairly accurate description of the LE results.
  • Pulpstar said:

    So a good result for Labour in Wake is?

    Over 5k maj would be a strong win
    Nope. Depends what the number of votes cast is for starters. If we go by Deano predicting 30K 11700 is the equivalent of 18K of 45. So for good night let alone spectacular Lab will need to move away from 11700 by at least 4 or 5K. As I explained to Deano, what Tory’s poll and Labours % ahead of that is next to meaningless as the Tory vote is the stay home vote, this election is about labour very much bettering the vote equivalent of what they got last time where 45K overall is 18K 30K overall is 11700K.
    I'm not convinced by this. By-election turnout is normally significantly down on a General Election as the government is not, in fact, at stake. So I'm sure Tory turnout will be down, but Labour will be to an only slightly lesser extent.

    To give an example, the absolute Tory vote in the Norwich North by-election gain in 2009 was materially down on 2005 but was a milestone towards what wasn't a massive but was a sufficient Tory win in 2010.
    Not the first time you have challenged my psephology sir, but I don’t hold that against you but it seems Norfolk & Chance we will ever agree on anything.

    I’ll explain my method of determining good or bad again, it’s so simple.

    Once I know the number of votes cast, I’ll calculate 40% of it if it’s 45K then that’s 18K labour have to exceed by many thousands of votes (last times result from last times votes, so if that number votes they have to exceed it by thousands don’t they). Ditto 40% of 30K 11500 they need to exceed by many thousands.

    It’s 40% of 27205

    10882 Is equivalent to the abysmal losing vote Labour got last time, they needs many thousands more than this before they can call it a good night.

    Regardless what votes the Tory’s get, regardless what % Labour are ahead of them, Labour need to pull away from 10882.

    13602 is 50% Labour need about 14700 of the 27205 for a good night in my opinion.

    Why does it need to be so decisive?
    Labour seat narrowly captured by Tories before they turned into the most rubbish government ever
    Mid term by election during governing party of 22 years polling slump
    Partygate.
    MP jailed and Labour campaign went big on it.
    Labours Red Wall struggles in last months locals needing put to bed.
    I agree this isn't 1996. That's not my feeling on the doorsteps, and I'm not looking at a 1997 result.

    It does, however, feel like 2009 but with a less credible PM for a difficult period ahead.

    Opposition wins with big swings and increased votes in absolute as well as real terms would be 1996. Opposition wins with decent swings on modest turnout is 2009.
    Have you answered the wrong post?

    And I’m the one whose drunk.
    Yes I have, and yes you are.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,289

    Well on one of the tables at T&H there were plenty more votes in the blue basket than the yellow one on the Sky report FWIW

    Hmmm. This depends very much on how they organise it. Generally, baskets get emptied and carted off to counted votes as they become full. So an apparently modest basket can either mean a moderate vote... or a very big vote requiring the basket to be regularly emptied.
    The correspondent implied that was just one of many such tables/baskets if my understanding was correct.
  • Pro_Rata said:

    Minor party person saying Labour landslide in some wards and competitive in Tory friendly wards.

    Possible David Herdson reading via Sky (probably only him or the Loony capable of psephology)?? But would also be a fairly accurate description of the LE results.

    So Tory leaning wards are close, and Labour leaning wards less so?

    I could tell you that, and I've never been to Wakefield in my life.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,525

    Pro_Rata said:

    Minor party person saying Labour landslide in some wards and competitive in Tory friendly wards.

    Possible David Herdson reading via Sky (probably only him or the Loony capable of psephology)?? But would also be a fairly accurate description of the LE results.

    So Tory leaning wards are close, and Labour leaning wards less so?

    I could tell you that, and I've never been to Wakefield in my life.
    There is a range of outcomes in that reading to be sure, but on the basis I'd tack a little closer to the local election numbers being close to the final result and tack my Labour margin expectation a point or two upwards, towards 15%.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 6,398

    Pulpstar said:

    So a good result for Labour in Wake is?

    Over 5k maj would be a strong win
    Nope. Depends what the number of votes cast is for starters. If we go by Deano predicting 30K 11700 is the equivalent of 18K of 45. So for good night let alone spectacular Lab will need to move away from 11700 by at least 4 or 5K. As I explained to Deano, what Tory’s poll and Labours % ahead of that is next to meaningless as the Tory vote is the stay home vote, this election is about labour very much bettering the vote equivalent of what they got last time where 45K overall is 18K 30K overall is 11700K.
    I'm not convinced by this. By-election turnout is normally significantly down on a General Election as the government is not, in fact, at stake. So I'm sure Tory turnout will be down, but Labour will be to an only slightly lesser extent.

    To give an example, the absolute Tory vote in the Norwich North by-election gain in 2009 was materially down on 2005 but was a milestone towards what wasn't a massive but was a sufficient Tory win in 2010.
    Not the first time you have challenged my psephology sir, but I don’t hold that against you but it seems Norfolk & Chance we will ever agree on anything.

    I’ll explain my method of determining good or bad again, it’s so simple.

    Once I know the number of votes cast, I’ll calculate 40% of it if it’s 45K then that’s 18K labour have to exceed by many thousands of votes (last times result from last times votes, so if that number votes they have to exceed it by thousands don’t they). Ditto 40% of 30K 11500 they need to exceed by many thousands.

    It’s 40% of 27205

    10882 Is equivalent to the abysmal losing vote Labour got last time, they needs many thousands more than this before they can call it a good night.

    Regardless what votes the Tory’s get, regardless what % Labour are ahead of them, Labour need to pull away from 10882.

    13602 is 50% Labour need about 14700 of the 27205 for a good night in my opinion.

    Why does it need to be so decisive?
    Labour seat narrowly captured by Tories before they turned into the most rubbish government ever
    Mid term by election during governing party of 22 years polling slump
    Partygate.
    MP jailed and Labour campaign went big on it.
    Labours Red Wall struggles in last months locals needing put to bed.
    I agree this isn't 1996. That's not my feeling on the doorsteps, and I'm not looking at a 1997 result.

    It does, however, feel like 2009 but with a less credible PM for a difficult period ahead.

    Opposition wins with big swings and increased votes in absolute as well as real terms would be 1996. Opposition wins with decent swings on modest turnout is 2009.
    Have you answered the wrong post?

    And I’m the one whose drunk.
    Yes I have, and yes you are.
    I’ve just had sex on the beach.

    Relax it’s a cocktail 🤣
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 3,952
    edited June 24
    Andy_JS said:

    Well on one of the tables at T&H there were plenty more votes in the blue basket than the yellow one on the Sky report FWIW

    Hmmm. This depends very much on how they organise it. Generally, baskets get emptied and carted off to counted votes as they become full. So an apparently modest basket can either mean a moderate vote... or a very big vote requiring the basket to be regularly emptied.
    The correspondent implied that was just one of many such tables/baskets if my understanding was correct.
    In my experience, journalists are f***ing dreadful at reading counts.

    They don't spend time at the tables, don't account for the fact trays are emptied when full, and don't even look at which polling district the box is from.

    Give an informed person five quiet minutes tallying at each of three well chosen boxes, and they'll tell you the result with a high degree of accuracy. Journos swanning around glancing at tables whilst trying to get a word from senior people... it's chimps having a crack at typing Shakespeare, frankly.
  • Looks like I'm going to need a bigger hammer 🟦🔨 👀

    From Ed Davey
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,289
    If the LDs have won by more than 10,000 votes Boris Johnson could be in trouble once again.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 3,952
    edited June 24
    Andy_JS said:

    If the LDs have won by more than 10,000 votes Boris Johnson could be in trouble once again.

    That's a scarcely credible number. The turnout is a little under 43k. So a a 10% majority is just over 4k, and a 10k majority would be well over 20%.

    That's miles above North Shropshire, and well above Chesham & Amersham (smaller swing but a MUCH bigger base).

    10k wouldn't just mean no progress for the blues, but substantially WORSE than the absolute nadir of Partygate.

    That's setting the bar way too high for what a bad result is. I agree Johnson would be in huge trouble at that level... but he'd be in big trouble far, far below that.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,102
    So, where do people think the larger numerical majority will be - Tiverton or Wakefield
  • Pulpstar said:

    So, where do people think the larger numerical majority will be - Tiverton or Wakefield

    Given turnouts, and on limited information, 4k each.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 437
    Ok I'm going to call it - Mordaunt to lead the Conservatives to a 25 seat majority at the next GE.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,289
    edited June 24
    Pulpstar said:

    So, where do people think the larger numerical majority will be - Tiverton or Wakefield

    Earlier today I wanted to place a bet on it being Tiverton but couldn't find a market. Thought it was worth a bet because it was more likely than most people probably thought it was.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 437
    W result expected in next 30 mins, TH next 60-90
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,390
    NEW THREAD
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,289
    58% to 33% would give a 10,000 majority for the LDs on a 52% turnout.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,888
    edited June 24
    Cancelled
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 6,398

    Looks like I'm going to need a bigger hammer 🟦🔨 👀

    From Ed Davey

    He’s going to hammer in the morning.
This discussion has been closed.